Money Line Converter
I found this converter, check it out...
http://www.sbrforum.com/Betting+Tools/Spread+ML+Converter.aspx
The Hilton's +6.5 spread for Oregon equates to a +195.6, although I don't think they will list it that high.
The SVLC has Oregon at +170, but I'm sure no book has posted $$ lines yet.
I posted an almost identical thread to UoweDucks elsewhere as to why I think Oregon wins this game outright.
I'm going for the $$ line
I found this converter, check it out...
http://www.sbrforum.com/Betting+Tools/Spread+ML+Converter.aspx
The Hilton's +6.5 spread for Oregon equates to a +195.6, although I don't think they will list it that high.
The SVLC has Oregon at +170, but I'm sure no book has posted $$ lines yet.
I posted an almost identical thread to UoweDucks elsewhere as to why I think Oregon wins this game outright.
I'm going for the $$ line
I'm one of those guy's who attend the open SC practices on occasion, as most all of them are open to the public, as well as reading and contribute to two of the SC fan boards.
With that said, the one thing that bothers me about Matt Barkley is, he still throws to many picks in practice for my comfort level. I do understand that the SC Db's were the best in CF last year in Pass Defense and Pass Effeciency Defense last year and very well could at least match that this year, but Aaron Corp wasn't throwing INT's during spring ball.
dog, thanks for that. I'll probably bet it at 2-1 therebouts for a bowl of soup... (large bowl)
Ducks,
I've given that idea a lot of thought too. What do you expect from a fr. QB first time starter etc... generally speaking a ton of errors.
I have no clue about how error prone Barkley is under pressure and if you think about it, it's good reason in his case to take pause mainly because he seems like some kind of quarterback prodigy. Mistakes? Surely, but only because he's human, not so much that he's just taken up running the offense -- but there's a fine line to draw there because he's playing vs players on his own team that know the playbook. Corp has had a year to adjust to them which is an advantage.
In games, I think that kind of problem will be minimal. His instincts are very unusual. What happens in practice happens vs a defense that knows what's coming so his inability to compensate vs players that already know what to expect isn't as vital at this stage. That will be fine tuned in practice as he takes more reps vs his own team mates. It's what happens when no one but the offense knows what play is coming that matters. I'm not seeing anything impulsive or trying too hard to finish plays that's at the bottom of it... in other words, typical rookie blunders.
I am 99% certain that what he brings to the game by far outweighs his tendency to make many mistakes. Due to his uniqueness, how that all adds up is a bit difficult to predict for me. I tend to give him the benefit of the doubt at this point.
I am thinking that I may be very glad that I bought the UNDER 10.5 for USC.
I am sure he is good and may develop into a everything he is being projected to be. But the road is never as easy as it looks, I will be surprised if he does not make a few very crucial mistakes during the course of the year. If I were a USC fan I would be a bit nervous about starting a true FR qb @ Ohio St, @ CAL, @ ND and most importantly @ Oregon (given the crowd noise). This is not the schedule one would want with that kind of inexperience at qb. The pressures this kid will feel will absolutely have an effect.
I went to a lot of Spring practices, and Corp threw a lot of INTs that weren't catched. His low INT number was overrated. Corp also spent all his time throwing dump downs 90% of the time. Uninspiring.
Keep in mind how awesome USC's D-Line is in practice. For every bit the O-Line is, the D-Line is in my opinion. All the QBs have been under immense pressure, probably more than they will all year in practice and that has led to some picks as well, in addition to the all-world secondary.
We both know the Trojan DL this year will far exceed everyone's expectations who doesn't follow the team closely, as they will be a very good unit. But also keep in mind that as good as they did in the spring, you need to temper this just a little with 3 of the 5 OL starters getting little to no practice (O'Dowd got zero). With the coaches flip flopping the line to see what could work and not work, that didn't really give the unit the continunity it needed to have to work together.
Now that fall camp has started and everyone's in position, it is already evident that the chemistry is there already for them.
And with that said, seeing Loni Fangupo, who has had all of 3 days of practice as a Trojan, slam O'Dowd into the turf yesterday and then make the tackle on CJ, I agree with you, I do think this year's DL will be better than last year's DL, which was pretty damn good.
I can only guess that I didn't go see the same spring pracitices that you did and we have been reading different boards, because I didn't see or hear about Aaron throwing dumps 90% of the time. In fact Morton and Bates were opening up the passing game as the spring developed, just to see how Aaron would respond to more down field passing. From what I know about that, the coaches were more than pleased from what they got from Aaron, Matt and Mitch.
The problem with a line like 21 is that it seems realistic. MD is fresh at numerous positions on the field and Cal's D will be sharp for this one, especially with the revenge angle involved and the fact that it's a rematch this time on their own turf. That's worked in the past to boost the Bears in home/home revenge situations. But run away and hide 3 TD's down the road? That may be pushing it were it not for their defense.
I wonder if Cal will be able to strike deep or rack up very many big gainers, punching the ball in without wasting a lot of time, especially considering that Riley may not get the green light to go deep or even very deep with Tedford on his ass as he has been... and just how many times in one game can Jahvid Best break one loose for 60 yards? 35-14 has a real feel to it. A TD margin of error means this one can swing either way... sort of like flipping a coin? The back door could be wide open.
If anything, the offenses could be a bit stymied here and an under total bet may work. I doubt Cal makes 40. And I doubt that their defense won't dominate the Terps.
I really doubt that the number goes much higher, if it moves at all. Almost everyone now has the line at -21, and I think that is where it will stay, give or take 1/2 to 1 point. No one came down big on Maryland, and the Cal people have done their thing already. I would be suprised to see much movement until just before game time, and then the action you will get will probably go to Maryland.
I envision this game as being dominated by the Bears' rushing game and their defense putting the clamps on MD for the most part. I think it will be tough for them to move the ball either through the air or on the ground.
That all translates into a lot of time burned up on rushing plays. I have heard that Riley has had a pretty good pre-season thus far but I've also heard that Tedford is not impressed with him. Cal is also short one starting WR which could put a crimp in Riley's options throwing the ball in this one. (I think it was Marvin Jones but I don't remember for sure who.) Last but not least, Cal's punter Bryan Anger could be the best punter in CFB this year. The Terps will be facing a very long field most of the day.
The big whammy in all of this is Cal's secondary (a very talented one,) which if the Terps are forced to throw much against, may come up with a few picks and ruin an under play or put Cal in the money as a side bet. TO's have me a bit worried about betting this game, especially in an electric atmosphere of revenge in Strawberry Canyon.
(I feel like my instincts are starting to kick in a bit at this point)
That all translates into a lot of time burned up on rushing plays. I have heard that Riley has had a pretty good pre-season thus far but I've also heard that Tedford is not impressed with him. Cal is also short one starting WR which could put a crimp in Riley's options throwing the ball in this one. (I think it was Marvin Jones but I don't remember for sure who.) Last but not least, Cal's punter Bryan Anger could be the best punter in CFB this year. The Terps will be facing a very long field most of the day.
The big whammy in all of this is Cal's secondary (a very talented one,) which if the Terps are forced to throw much against, may come up with a few picks and ruin an under play or put Cal in the money as a side bet. TO's have me a bit worried about betting this game, especially in an electric atmosphere of revenge in Strawberry Canyon.
(I feel like my instincts are starting to kick in a bit at this point)
I don't remember where I saw the last Cal story Woof but here's a website everyone should register at and use often. It costs nothing.
College injury report
College injury report
