You're sitting pretty ... the only thing I would do if I were you is watch the odds for Best Picture over the next couple of days ... if the line on Slumdog starts coming down a fair bit, I'd Polish scalp it against the film that seems to have the momentum, on the hopes that either that film or Slumdog wins. But more than likely you'll be able to sit tight and do nothing.
You're sitting pretty ... the only thing I would do if I were you is watch the odds for Best Picture over the next couple of days ... if the line on Slumdog starts coming down a fair bit, I'd Polish scalp it against the film that seems to have the momentum, on the hopes that either that film or Slumdog wins. But more than likely you'll be able to sit tight and do nothing.
http://rogerebert.suntimes.com/
i've always read roger's opinion, he's been pretty good at spotting upsets through the years, mostly from the supporting actor/actress categories, remember marcia gay harden for pollock for good rea$on, LOL. I can't seem to find the link to his early impressions/opinions on the 6 main categories. He wrote short blurbs about each, saying who he wanted and thought deserved to win, and that his huge support for Melissa Leo stuck out to me, cause I saw the +5000 on pinnacle.
i've always read roger's opinion, he's been pretty good at spotting upsets through the years, mostly from the supporting actor/actress categories, remember marcia gay harden for pollock for good rea$on, LOL. I can't seem to find the link to his early impressions/opinions on the 6 main categories. He wrote short blurbs about each, saying who he wanted and thought deserved to win, and that his huge support for Melissa Leo stuck out to me, cause I saw the +5000 on pinnacle.
FWIW, On MB right now, Slumdog to win: Yes is available at -860 with $3018 behind it, -980 with $2068 behind it, -1050 with $5775 behind it. No is available at +520 with $5 behind it, +500 with $1 behind it, and +480 w/ $1 behind it. (~$1100 looking for no, ~$36 looking for yes, when adjusted for odds)
Apparently the money likes "no," although maybe they are just looking to scalp an earlier yes position, which is what I did yesterday.
fwiw - I believe this is the order of awards. Time is listed in Pacific. 8:30 est start.
5:38: Hugh’s opening performance
5:45:AWARD #1
ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
5:51: AWARD #2:
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
5:55: AWARD #3
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
6:03: AWARD #4
ANIMATED FEATURE FILM
6:05: AWARD #5
ANIMATED SHORT FILM
6:14: AWARD #6
ART DIRECTION
6:18: AWARD #7
COSTUME DESIGN
6:20: AWARD #8
MAKEUP
6:30: AWARD #9
CINEMATOGRAPHY
6:36: SCI-TECH AWARDS RECAP
6:41: AWARD #10
LIVE ACTION SHORT FILM
7:03: AWARD #11
ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
7:08: AWARD #12
DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
7:10: AWARD #13
DOCUMENTARY SHORT SUBJECT
7:20: AWARD #14
VISUAL EFFECTS
7:22: AWARD #15
SOUND EDITING
7:26: AWARD #16
SOUND MIXING
7:29: AWARD #17
FILM EDITING
7:37: JEAN HERSHOLT AWARD
TO JERRY LEWIS
7:48: AWARD #18
ORIGINAL SCORE
7:55: AWARD #19
ORIGINAL SONG
8:01: AWARD #20
FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
8:10 In Memoriam
8:14: AWARD #21
DIRECTING
8:23: AWARD #22
ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
8:31: AWARD #23
ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
8:38: AWARD #24
BEST MOTION PICTURE
5:38: Hugh’s opening performance
5:45:AWARD #1
ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
5:51: AWARD #2:
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
5:55: AWARD #3
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
6:03: AWARD #4
ANIMATED FEATURE FILM
6:05: AWARD #5
ANIMATED SHORT FILM
6:14: AWARD #6
ART DIRECTION
6:18: AWARD #7
COSTUME DESIGN
6:20: AWARD #8
MAKEUP
6:30: AWARD #9
CINEMATOGRAPHY
6:36: SCI-TECH AWARDS RECAP
6:41: AWARD #10
LIVE ACTION SHORT FILM
7:03: AWARD #11
ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
7:08: AWARD #12
DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
7:10: AWARD #13
DOCUMENTARY SHORT SUBJECT
7:20: AWARD #14
VISUAL EFFECTS
7:22: AWARD #15
SOUND EDITING
7:26: AWARD #16
SOUND MIXING
7:29: AWARD #17
FILM EDITING
7:37: JEAN HERSHOLT AWARD
TO JERRY LEWIS
7:48: AWARD #18
ORIGINAL SCORE
7:55: AWARD #19
ORIGINAL SONG
8:01: AWARD #20
FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
8:10 In Memoriam
8:14: AWARD #21
DIRECTING
8:23: AWARD #22
ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
8:31: AWARD #23
ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
8:38: AWARD #24
BEST MOTION PICTURE
jazz sports has some decent options
81ST ANNUAL ACADEMY AWARDS - Feb 22
Feb 22 - 5:00 PM WILL SLUMDOG MILLIONAIRE WIN BEST PICTURE OSCAR?
7601 YES-SLUMDOG MILLIONAIRE WINS BEST PICTURE OSCAR -800
7602 NO-SLUMDOG MILLIONAIRE WINS BEST PICTURE OSCAR +640
Feb 22 - 5:00 PM WILL DANNY BOYLE(SLUMDOG) WIN BEST DIRECTOR OSCAR?
7603 YES-DANNY BOYLE WINS BEST DIRECTOR OSCAR -1000
7604 NO-DANNY BOYLE WINS BEST DIRECTOR OSCAR +800
Feb 22 - 5:00 PM ODDS TO WIN OSCAR FOR BEST ACTOR
7605 MICKEY ROURKE (THE WRESTLER) -175
7606 SEAN PENN (MILK) +130
7607 FRANK LANGELLA (FROST/NIXON) +750
7608 RICHARD JENKINS (THE VISITOR) +2500
7609 BRAD PITT (THE CURIOUS CASE OF BENJAMIN BUTTON) +500
Feb 22 - 5:00 PM ODDS TO WIN OSCAR FOR BEST ACTRESS
7610 KATE WINSLET (THE READER) -300
7611 ANNE HATHAWAY (RACHEL GETTING MARRIED) +650
7612 MERYL STREEP (DOUBT) +330
7613 ANGELINA JOLIE (CHANGELING) +3100
7614 MELISSA LEO (FROZEN RIVER) +4000
Feb 22 - 5:00 PM WILL HEATH LEDGER WIN BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR OSCAR?
7615 YES-HEATH LEDGER WINS BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR OSCAR -2750
7616 NO-HEATH LEDGER WINS BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR OSCAR +1750
Feb 22 - 5:00 PM ODDS TO WIN OSCAR FOR BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
7617 PENELOPE CRUZ (VICKY CRISTINA BARCELONA) -200
7618 VIOLA DAVIS (DOUBT) +450
7619 MARISSA TOMEI (THE WRESTLER) +750
7620 TARAJI P. HENSON (THE CURIOUS CASE OF B. BUTTON) +1150
7621 AMY ADAMS (DOUBT) +800
81ST ANNUAL ACADEMY AWARDS - Feb 22
Feb 22 - 5:00 PM WILL SLUMDOG MILLIONAIRE WIN BEST PICTURE OSCAR?
7601 YES-SLUMDOG MILLIONAIRE WINS BEST PICTURE OSCAR -800
7602 NO-SLUMDOG MILLIONAIRE WINS BEST PICTURE OSCAR +640
Feb 22 - 5:00 PM WILL DANNY BOYLE(SLUMDOG) WIN BEST DIRECTOR OSCAR?
7603 YES-DANNY BOYLE WINS BEST DIRECTOR OSCAR -1000
7604 NO-DANNY BOYLE WINS BEST DIRECTOR OSCAR +800
Feb 22 - 5:00 PM ODDS TO WIN OSCAR FOR BEST ACTOR
7605 MICKEY ROURKE (THE WRESTLER) -175
7606 SEAN PENN (MILK) +130
7607 FRANK LANGELLA (FROST/NIXON) +750
7608 RICHARD JENKINS (THE VISITOR) +2500
7609 BRAD PITT (THE CURIOUS CASE OF BENJAMIN BUTTON) +500
Feb 22 - 5:00 PM ODDS TO WIN OSCAR FOR BEST ACTRESS
7610 KATE WINSLET (THE READER) -300
7611 ANNE HATHAWAY (RACHEL GETTING MARRIED) +650
7612 MERYL STREEP (DOUBT) +330
7613 ANGELINA JOLIE (CHANGELING) +3100
7614 MELISSA LEO (FROZEN RIVER) +4000
Feb 22 - 5:00 PM WILL HEATH LEDGER WIN BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR OSCAR?
7615 YES-HEATH LEDGER WINS BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR OSCAR -2750
7616 NO-HEATH LEDGER WINS BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR OSCAR +1750
Feb 22 - 5:00 PM ODDS TO WIN OSCAR FOR BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
7617 PENELOPE CRUZ (VICKY CRISTINA BARCELONA) -200
7618 VIOLA DAVIS (DOUBT) +450
7619 MARISSA TOMEI (THE WRESTLER) +750
7620 TARAJI P. HENSON (THE CURIOUS CASE OF B. BUTTON) +1150
7621 AMY ADAMS (DOUBT) +800
hno:
Mentioned before betting wise Davis is a mandatory play. 4 to 5-1 are great odds, give her a 40% chance of winning. Cruz I give about the same chance of winning, maybe slightly less, would not touch minus anything.
Rourke vs. Penn has me a little confused. Rourke appears ahead, at least publicly, but I'm not sure. Really couldn't lay almost 1-2 odds with Rourke. Value wise Langella over 20-1 is a good play. He has a shot.
Main categories;
Percentage equals chance of winning.
Picture >> Status quo here, have heard nothing to suggest Milk or CCofBB can actually win.
Slumdog 90%
Milk 5%
CCofBB 5%
Actor >> Confused. Penn or Langella at current odds.
Rourke 50%
Penn 40%
Langella 10%
Actress >> Last second Leo talk weakens Winslet slightly, Streep may be higher then my percentages.
Winslet 70%
Streep 20%
Leo 10%
Sup. Actor >> Ledger will win, probably closer in the vote count then most think though.
Ledger 95%
Brolin 3%
Downey 2%
Sup. Actress >> Davis and Cruz ahead of the other two.
Davis 40%
Cruz 35%
Tomei 15%
Adams 10%
Director >> Boyle looks comfortable.
Boyle 85%
Fincher 10%
Van Sant 5%
I like the odds for Wall-E to win Original Screenplay if you can get them. I'm seeing 5 to 1 or better. Give it around a 33% chance.
Percentage equals chance of winning.
Picture >> Status quo here, have heard nothing to suggest Milk or CCofBB can actually win.
Slumdog 90%
Milk 5%
CCofBB 5%
Actor >> Confused. Penn or Langella at current odds.
Rourke 50%
Penn 40%
Langella 10%
Actress >> Last second Leo talk weakens Winslet slightly, Streep may be higher then my percentages.
Winslet 70%
Streep 20%
Leo 10%
Sup. Actor >> Ledger will win, probably closer in the vote count then most think though.
Ledger 95%
Brolin 3%
Downey 2%
Sup. Actress >> Davis and Cruz ahead of the other two.
Davis 40%
Cruz 35%
Tomei 15%
Adams 10%
Director >> Boyle looks comfortable.
Boyle 85%
Fincher 10%
Van Sant 5%
I like the odds for Wall-E to win Original Screenplay if you can get them. I'm seeing 5 to 1 or better. Give it around a 33% chance.
