Yeah, was just a funny story!
You think there's any value at all in Milk as Best Picture? or has Slumdog just killed this thing?
Supporting Actress category also looks to have been swinging wide open, I've seen Cruz's odds go as high as -137. Some action on Davis whose still at around +450, Tomei coming in too...
Also pretty interested in the documentary, adapted screenplay, and original screenplay categories. I think the favourites in those categories are a tad too short. Any advice?
the story may be unlikely, but there is alot of "real life" in the background as one can see kind of what it must be like growing up in the slums of india, the dangers, etc...
the main story is "fantastic" but some of the background stuff, scenery, the way these kids live is very real.
great movie.
I havent seen the others which it is competing against so I cannot say wether I think it is best picture or not.
Where exactly are you seeing any buzz about Melissa Leo ? I haven't seen or heard anything ... nor has there been a bump in her odds.
Nate Silver had an article 3 or 4 days ago that gave Taraji Henson a 50% shot at winning Supporting Actress ... not that I believe it will happen, but that article did move her odds from about 30-1 to about 10-1. I haven't seen any move at all on Melissa Leo.
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No heavy Oscar favourite is unbettable ... as a matter of fact, if you have a favourite of -800 or higher, and you bet against it, you are going to lose money.
It's much different than a baseball / basketball / football game ... in sports, sometimes the -800 favs lose ... in Oscar betting, they don't lose.
You're right .. but I don't consider that a 'heavy' favourite (I mentioned -800 or higher in my post above as a cut-off point).
The other thing about Crash / BBM, is that in the last 3-4 days before the ceremony, the odds for BBM started coming down a bit, while Crash started having some money come in on it. That was a sign that the medium-range favourite (-300 to -500) BBM was at risk.
But if you have a -800 or higher favourite, whose odds are holding or getting even higher in the 3-4 days before the awards ceremoney, then it's basically a lock. In some ways, it actually makes more sense to wait until the day before the ceremony to place your (bridge-jumper) bet on the heavy favourite ... although you may be getting worse odds than you could have a week or two prior, at least you know that if the heavy favourite of January is still the heavy favourite the day before the ceremoney, your bet is going to almost certainly win.
A similar thing happened when Pan's Labyrinth was the early -500 to -700 or so favourite to win Best Foreign Film ... over the 2-3 weeks leading up to the ceremoney, PL odds came down to the -300 to -400 range, while money started coming in on The Lives Of Others (which eventually won).
But the January favourite that continues to be the favourite, and actually becomes a heavier favourite, as the awards ceremony approaches, doesn't lose. Danny Boyle Best Director is this year's example ... that one is basically a sure thing. Well, obviously Heath Ledger too, but I don't have enough money in my betting accounts to tie up money for several weeks for a 1-25 payoff.
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I guess your definition of a 'lock' is different than mine ... it was far from a lock.
I generally bet all the 'locks', but I didn't bet that.
I didn't bet Best Actress either, which also ended up with the favourite losing.
But in both of those categories, the favourite was only in the -300 to -400 range, if that ... far from locks.
