Oscar Betting?

[Biggamer3]

Rourke won, why the fuck didnt i lay an Oscar bet on him, i knew he would win this year.

he was at +400 when i started this thread now he is fav

 

[HansGruber]

Beside the Oscar locks - you CAN use that word in Oscar betting - don't forget long shots. I saw Tilda Swinton as high as +1000 last year for Best Supporting Actress which is a notorious wild card category. You have to wait until the last minute to get a sense of who those dark horses may be.

 

[Biggamer3]

Nominees:

Best Motion Picture of the Year
Nominees:

The Curious Case of Benjamin Button (2008): Ceán Chaffin, Kathleen Kennedy, Frank Marshall

Frost/Nixon (2008): Brian Grazer, Ron Howard, Eric Fellner

Milk (2008): Bruce Cohen, Dan Jinks

The Reader (2008): Nominees to be determined

Slumdog Millionaire (2008): Christian Colson
Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role
Nominees:

Richard Jenkins for The Visitor (2007/I)

Frank Langella for Frost/Nixon (2008)

Sean Penn for Milk (2008)

Brad Pitt for The Curious Case of Benjamin Button (2008)

Mickey Rourke for The Wrestler (2008)
Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role
Nominees:

Anne Hathaway for Rachel Getting Married (2008)

Angelina Jolie for Changeling (2008)

Melissa Leo for Frozen River (2008)

Meryl Streep for Doubt (2008/I)

Kate Winslet for The Reader (2008)
Best Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role
Nominees:

Josh Brolin for Milk (2008)

Robert Downey Jr. for Tropic Thunder (2008)

Philip Seymour Hoffman for Doubt (2008/I)

Heath Ledger for The Dark Knight (2008)

Michael Shannon for Revolutionary Road (2008)
Best Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role
Nominees:

Amy Adams for Doubt (2008/I)

Penélope Cruz for Vicky Cristina Barcelona (2008)

Viola Davis for Doubt (2008/I)

Taraji P. Henson for The Curious Case of Benjamin Button (2008)

Marisa Tomei for The Wrestler (2008)
Best Achievement in Directing
Nominees:

Danny Boyle for Slumdog Millionaire (2008)

Stephen Daldry for The Reader (2008)

David Fincher for The Curious Case of Benjamin Button (2008)

Ron Howard for Frost/Nixon (2008)

Gus Van Sant for Milk (2008)

 

[SportSavant]

Beside the Oscar locks - you CAN use that word in Oscar betting - don't forget long shots. I saw Tilda Swinton as high as +1000 last year for Best Supporting Actress which is a notorious wild card category. You have to wait until the last minute to get a sense of who those dark horses may be.

she was as high as 25/1 a few days b4

 

[SportSavant]

what exact date are the oscars?

 

[WorldNumberOne]

i dont think rourke wins the oscar. i havnt seen any of the films , but i have a hunch the academy isnt quite as willing to welcome him back as the hollywood foreign press were.

i could be wrong .

 

[Biggamer3]

what exact date are the oscars?

Feb 22

 

[Betfair.com]

Oscar Odds Betfair

These are all up at Betfair.

Direct Link to Motion Picture market

http://sports.betfair.com/Index.do?mi=100329310&ex=1&origin=MRL


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[HPark1]

Solid early play;

Winslet to win Lead Actress at +100 or better. When the academy ignored the campaign to have her performance in The Reader tossed in supporting actress category and threw it in Best Actress (over her other Lead Actress hope for Revolutionary Road) it all but sealed this victory. The Reader is apparently well liked (somehow nominated for Best Pic) and with Winslet now only in a single category all the votes should flow to her. Possible spoiler here is Streep, could cover as Streep is 6/7-1 currently. Despite the odds suggesting Hathaway is the next in line I think her chances are slowly being reduced to longshot.

 

[HPark1]

In a giving mood, here's another...

Best Pic - From what I gather Slumdog Millionaire is clearly out in front. I was somewhat surprised to see the odds coming back a little bit after the official nominations. I suppose the headline of CCofBB leading the nominations with 13 have scared some off.

I feel confident saying a line of -225ish is definitely value. Right now Slumdog's chances are no less than 75%.

*note there are several semi-important award shows coming up where Slumdog is a big fav to win best picture. So its likely the odds will begin to rise after it continues to pick up each award.

 

[Mindware]

any other books have oscar lines up?

 

[HarryBalzac]

bwin.com have them up. Heath is 1.10 and slumdog is a heavy favorite at 1.33.

 

[HinesWard86]

In a giving mood, here's another...

Best Pic - From what I gather Slumdog Millionaire is clearly out in front. I was somewhat surprised to see the odds coming back a little bit after the official nominations. I suppose the headline of CCofBB leading the nominations with 13 have scared some off.

I feel confident saying a line of -225ish is definitely value. Right now Slumdog's chances are no less than 75%.

*note there are several semi-important award shows coming up where Slumdog is a big fav to win best picture. So its likely the odds will begin to rise after it continues to pick up each award.

Both The Reader and Benjamin Button have a 0.01% chance of winning Best Picture. Frost/Nixon has an outside chance but not a large one.

I really think the way to go with BP is Milk. I was grabbing it at +780 a week ago and IMO the price for it is still ridiculous. I really think Milk will get a lot of play due in large part to the gay marraige prop failing in California and the outrage and consternation that came from it. Quite often the Academy likes to send messages with its picks. I can see them doing it again with Milk.

I would also say its 95% likely that either Slumdog or Milk wins BP

 

[HinesWard86]

Hahahahahaha I just saw that Benjamin Button is now the second favorite. No way that BB can or should win BP.

 

[JohnnyB]

SAG Awards were held tonight. Opinions?

 

[whormoan]

LOS ANGELES – Meryl Streep of "Doubt" and Sean Penn of "Milk" have won lead-acting honors at the Screen Actors Guild Awards. The prize for overall cast went to the rags-to-riches saga "Slumdog Millionaire."
Heath Ledger's sociopathic reinvention of Batman bad guy the Joker in "The Dark Knight" has earned him the supporting-actor honor, while Kate Winslet is the winner of the supporting-actress award for the Holocaust-themed drama "The Reader."
Ledger's award was accepted by co-star Gary Oldman.




SAG awards are more indicative than Globes

 

[HPark1]

SAG Awards were held tonight. Opinions?

Well since you asked.

Slumdog winning best picture is almost a done deal. The line should be minus a thousand something. Both wins this weekend were not sure things (pga and sag) and further solidifies the support this movie has across the board. Milk not being able to win best ensemble yesterday over Slumdog says a lot. Milk has two acting nominations from respected actors (Penn and Brolin) and an all around solid cast and yet it still lost to a couple young kids. Just shows how much people like the movie.

HinesWard, quick mention about the academy. They are quite old and most are probably homophobic. Remember this bunch were able to take down Brokeback Mountain for Crash just a few years ago. They certainly won't be sending a message in this case.


Best Actress now is clearly a two horse race, Streep v Winslet. Streep with the victory and nice speech is clearly now the serious threat to Winslet. Value wise Streep at 4-1 or so is excellent. But of course you can still negotiate with the current odds to make a profit both ways. Have no idea why the odds still have Hathaway as second fav, her chances are quite slim now.

Best Supporting Actress I'd stay away from Cruz at the moment. At this second she probably has enough votes but if one clear name can emerge to challenge she could be in trouble.

 

[JohnnyB]

Slumdog winning best picture is almost a done deal. The line should be minus a thousand something. Both wins this weekend were not sure things (pga and sag) and further solidifies the support this movie has across the board. Milk not being able to win best ensemble yesterday over Slumdog says a lot. Milk has two acting nominations from respected actors (Penn and Brolin) and an all around solid cast and yet it still lost to a couple young kids. Just shows how much people like the movie.

Was hoping you'd respond in particular HPark.

So I'm guessing you like Slumdog if I can get it at -250?

Are you just a movie buff or do you work in the industry? You seem to be spot on every year.

FWIW I think Slumdog with BP but Penn wins best actor to throw a bone to Milk, similar to how Michael Clayton lost BP last year but Tilda Swinton won best actress as a consolation to acknowledge the film.

 

[trytrytry]

slumdog will be -600 by Oscar night...favorites always move in that direction. so if yo like something else wait wait wait...Im not saying its a lock at all only that it will be -600 or worse by Oscar night.. I played some at -220 and -250 and now will just wait and see if something else is worth buying back Oscar day...

 

[trytrytry]

Heath will likley go to -2500 OScar night...if you had a chance to grab the -700 and -800 on the way up your sitting OK...That is a done deal.