-250 is a great price, anything under -400 I would be playing without hesitation. As others suggest this line will only likely get higher, there's really little chance it turns around. Key awards are done (except Baftas) so the news of SD's inevitability will be revealed as the days go by. Of course if I hear of any rumblings from another movie I will post a heads up.
And no I do not work in the industry. Just a degenerate gambler who gets down and dirty and follows this stuff from day one.
I do agree that Penn will likely win Best Actor, odds of +150 or better are worth betting. Also will recommend again the Winslet/Streep combo in Best Actress. Clear two horse race here, can make a profit betting both.
I'm beginning to think Streep at 4-1 holds more value than Winslet. Might take a calculated risk and just end up covering with Winslet. Its clearly a two horse race. Hathaway is nominated in a movie nobody knows/cares about and has won virtually nothing. Its extremely tough to imagine her getting more votes then the big names of Winslet and Streep.
Rourke and Penn seemed to have Best Actor covered up although at current odds I wouldn't try to squeeze a few bucks at what would work out to be very high juice. Langella could still be in the mix. Nothing has indicated as much yet but I don't know.
Just a heads up. Slumdog's Danny Boyle won the DGA (Directors Guild of America) last night further cementing its place as a massive favorite for best pic/director. The winner of the DGA has gone on to win best pic 40 out of the past 50 occasions.
The only noteworthy awards left are the BAFTA's and I suppose the WGA (writers guild of America). imo Slumdog's current chances of winning Best pic hover near 90%. Slumdog has won every major precursor award thus far. Very few movies (if any?) have swept every major award.
The only noteworthy awards left are the BAFTA's and I suppose the WGA (writers guild of America). imo Slumdog's current chances of winning Best pic hover near 90%. Slumdog has won every major precursor award thus far. Very few movies (if any?) have swept every major award.
ok another quick update. Slumdog did end up winning the BAFTA's and WGA awards. So it more or less won every significant precursor award. Definitely a 90%+ fav now.
Elsewhere Rourke won the BAFTA over Penn. This will cause Penn to creep just over 2-1 by the Oscars which will be a decent play. I currently believe Penn is slightly ahead here...a BAFTA win isn't as big of a deal as most people believe.
Similar scenario with Best Sup. Actress. Cruz won the BAFTA and the odds are adjusting a little now more in her favor. This will just end up giviing a little more value to her main rival in the Oscar race Viola Davis. Davis has a real shot here and 4-1ish is worth a play.
Elsewhere Rourke won the BAFTA over Penn. This will cause Penn to creep just over 2-1 by the Oscars which will be a decent play. I currently believe Penn is slightly ahead here...a BAFTA win isn't as big of a deal as most people believe.
Similar scenario with Best Sup. Actress. Cruz won the BAFTA and the odds are adjusting a little now more in her favor. This will just end up giviing a little more value to her main rival in the Oscar race Viola Davis. Davis has a real shot here and 4-1ish is worth a play.
That list was nonsense. Was released before the voting had officially closed.
Quick update. It appears no books have what it takes to release lines on the smaller categories. Sucks but really wasn't expecting any luck there.
As far as any bets its getting tough to recommend anything. The likely winners, for the most part, have been over bet. Of course this does inflate the odds for nominees who appear to have no chance...
There has been some buzz about Melissa Leo perhaps prevailing in Best Actress. I believe the idea is legit and she is gaining many more votes then the general public might think. Its unlikely she has enough votes to take the victory but at generous odds of 30 to 50-1 its worth a bet.
Quick update. It appears no books have what it takes to release lines on the smaller categories. Sucks but really wasn't expecting any luck there.
As far as any bets its getting tough to recommend anything. The likely winners, for the most part, have been over bet. Of course this does inflate the odds for nominees who appear to have no chance...
There has been some buzz about Melissa Leo perhaps prevailing in Best Actress. I believe the idea is legit and she is gaining many more votes then the general public might think. Its unlikely she has enough votes to take the victory but at generous odds of 30 to 50-1 its worth a bet.
