Celtics/Cavs Under was lost following the ejection, and technical foul, imo. Both teams began to play much more aggressive afterward. On offense, both drove or shot early into the shot clock, and on defense both fouled excessively as a result, which of course led to free throws and easy points. After an 88 pt 1H, the 2H saw 111 pts scored. A great game to have watched as a fan, even if it was a frustrating loss. Wizards did not reach 80 points tonight as expected, and the Under cashed rather easily in that one. Wizards without Butler or Jameson, are no doubt, the worst offense in the league, imo, and possibly one of the worst I have seen in a long time. Bucks, on the other hand, had plenty of chances to cover late, but 3 players on the Bulls combined for 82 points. Hard to stay in a game, where 3 guys are having that kind of impact and scoring the ball that well. Gordon did what he does best, and the rookie shined once again. Big win for the Bulls to put them in sole possession of the 8th spot in the East. Not expecting much from this team, but would love to see Rose get the playoff experience, even if it means Del Negro keeps his job, as a result. Lakers destroyed the Twolves, which was no surprise. Simply played the number in that one, since it was so high, and L.A. has struggled to cover large spreads without Bynum in the lineup. Imo, we will continue to find value in over inflated Laker lines, considering how much the public loves to bet them. Hopefully, next time around we will have better luck. Nuggets stayed in the game for the most part,and held on to cover the +9, even though the Jazz ran away with it late. What this team is doing again this year, at home, is nothing short of amazing. Jazz are probably the hottest team in the NBA right now, and finally healthy. Utah can make alot of noise in the playoffs, imo. Very fun team to watch, when they are clicking like this. And finally, the large play on Charlotte cashed, and effectively ensured a profit on the day. +3.2 units when it was all said and done. That makes 3 winning days out of the 4 bet this week, with 2 days left to bet. Remember our goal, was to produce a winning week, and we have put ourselves in position to do just that. A few weeks more, and I will in all likelihood, call it a year. Lets try making the best of it.
Grizzlies would have cashed tonight. Ugly day for the bettor to have witnessed. Grizzlies cover by a hook, Hawks cover by a point, Cleveland covers by a hook, Milwaukee covers by a point, etc. Alot of very tight lines. Oddsmakers clearly on their A game. Have to be extra sharp, at this point of the season, to make some money. Hopefully everyone had a profitable Saturday.
The simplest way to follow his plays is by using the number in () after the play. Consider the largest possible biggest bet you would make then divide that number by 7-10. For each unit he puts in () you would bet 1 of those divisible units. Lets say the biggest bet you would make is $100, you divide by 10, that means for each unit he lists you bet $10. Todays play would be a $30 bet on under 198.
The reason you only see Action Plays and small plays, he has an additional play called investment play which is the best of the best. He is probably done with those as he did really well for himself. Some of his action plays may even be of the caliber of investment play, but he did so well this year he doesn't want to risk losing the extra cheese late in the season.
Early in the thread he said that he was putting $1500-3000 on investment plays and $50-$200 on these small and action plays to give you an idea of the difference in his own mind.
Even with that his success with the small and action plays would of made anyone a lot had they flat bet every pick, in the end I am sure you would do better using a unit system and just using the number after the play to gauge how much to risk.
Spreadproof did a good job of explaining it, but there are a few things worth mentioning. My investment plays are indeed the heaviest plays, and the amounts mentioned were accurate. But I am not so sure that I am done with the Investment plays for the season just yet. You never know when an opportunity will present itself! If a line, warrants an Investment play I will not hesitate to place the wager. With that being said, lines are tighter than ever, so how much opportunity remains is yet to be seen. Just have to play it by ear. Action plays are bet for heavier amounts than those mentioned. Only, when I first began to wager these plays, many years back, were they bet for those amounts. Early on in the season I was flat betting my action plays for $350 per play. Now these plays are bet a bit heavier late in the season, and they are no longer being flat bet. Small plays, are simply my response to the occasional slump. I use them to break through a bad stretch, with as much damage control as possible, and minimal losses. I also use these small plays for lines, that are different than the ones I have for the game, and therefore have me showing some value. More specifically for the lines that I show some value, but the rest of my capping contradicts the play. For example the other night, Jazz/Nuggets, I had Jazz -5 for myline, and the actual line was Jazz -9. Significant value, in terms of the line difference. But every tool I use to cap, pointed toward the Jazz winning big. So I decided to bet the Nuggets +9 very small. Jazz win by 7, I win my bet, but clearly no significant edge there. My way, basically, of betting a game, so that I do not look back at the game, at the end of the day, and say "I should have bet that game."
When I designate a given play, as small, action, or investment, what I hope to convey is the relative strength of the play, and not necessarily the dollar amount that should be bet. That should be something left in the hands of each individual to decide. What would help, in deciding the amount for each person is this: Ask yourself this question, "If I were betting a sport, and I had three different plays. One being the smallest, One being the heaviest, and the other being somewhere in the middle, and I was determining which to bet based on relative confidence, what fixed amounts would I decide to assign to each type of play?" This of course will depend upon your bankroll, which is why I prefer each person answer this question for themselves. Betting at your level is extremely important. For some, it may be wise to bet 1 unit on small plays, 3 units on action plays, and 7 units on investment plays. For others, it may be preferable to bet 1, 5, and 10 units respectively. For yet another group of bettors, it may be best to bet 1 unit on small plays, 2 units on action plays, and 3 units on Investment plays. It is simply a matter of preference, and a decision that should be made based on the situation of each person's specific bankroll. Like I said, when I designate a play as small, action, and investment, what I really hope to convey, is the relative strength of the play, and not necessarily the specific amount you should bet on each. That is up to you to decide. I hope this helps.
Also thanks to spreadproof, for taking the time to explain..
When I designate a given play, as small, action, or investment, what I hope to convey is the relative strength of the play, and not necessarily the dollar amount that should be bet. That should be something left in the hands of each individual to decide. What would help, in deciding the amount for each person is this: Ask yourself this question, "If I were betting a sport, and I had three different plays. One being the smallest, One being the heaviest, and the other being somewhere in the middle, and I was determining which to bet based on relative confidence, what fixed amounts would I decide to assign to each type of play?" This of course will depend upon your bankroll, which is why I prefer each person answer this question for themselves. Betting at your level is extremely important. For some, it may be wise to bet 1 unit on small plays, 3 units on action plays, and 7 units on investment plays. For others, it may be preferable to bet 1, 5, and 10 units respectively. For yet another group of bettors, it may be best to bet 1 unit on small plays, 2 units on action plays, and 3 units on Investment plays. It is simply a matter of preference, and a decision that should be made based on the situation of each person's specific bankroll. Like I said, when I designate a play as small, action, and investment, what I really hope to convey, is the relative strength of the play, and not necessarily the specific amount you should bet on each. That is up to you to decide. I hope this helps.
Also thanks to spreadproof, for taking the time to explain..
