'peg - 48-20 SU spot on home team off 3+ straight multiple goal losses including 31-7 as a home fav which is also the exact spot they lost in vs Calgary. BTW, within that 31-7 is that these home favs are 10-0 if they had at least 35 shots in last game, which winnipeg did (all but 1 win in regulation). While i rarely add in emotional factors i saw a lot of post-game stuff after the flames game and with maurice + players all saying the right things they will play well tonight
leafs = one of my fav dog plays but always have to hold your nose before you hit enter on the bet. playing on really bad away dogs (based off avg margin of defeat) that were just shutout. 49-26 SU for 159% ROI with OT included. last year was first losing one ever (8-11 SU -$57 on avg $100 bet) and that was obviously a tiny loss. Will play these through March. regulation only would be 38-37 SU +$142% (based off avg +180) so OT included is stronger historically but tough to pass up +195 regulation tonight....
red wings = first half of season play on a winning team coming off home win by shutout. 39-10 SU L49...dogs 39-25 historically incl 22-6 +172% since 2010 season (only 3/28 went to OT).
leafs = one of my fav dog plays but always have to hold your nose before you hit enter on the bet. playing on really bad away dogs (based off avg margin of defeat) that were just shutout. 49-26 SU for 159% ROI with OT included. last year was first losing one ever (8-11 SU -$57 on avg $100 bet) and that was obviously a tiny loss. Will play these through March. regulation only would be 38-37 SU +$142% (based off avg +180) so OT included is stronger historically but tough to pass up +195 regulation tonight....
red wings = first half of season play on a winning team coming off home win by shutout. 39-10 SU L49...dogs 39-25 historically incl 22-6 +172% since 2010 season (only 3/28 went to OT).
interesting team one. i don't do anything with these unless they match a league-wide system but Preds have been ok as a home fav off an away loss.
no kidman, look that the line parameter i posted last night and then the current line available
no kidman, look that the line parameter i posted last night and then the current line available
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with the line move in CGY/TB it brings about a 58-137 -135% system of opposing an away dog that was just an away fav, including 14-39 -142% unrested. When this away dog played in a 1-goal game they are 22-73 SU -150% including 1-11 SU L12 and with no rest are 8-22 SU. Tough for me to play something at -112 i could have taken at +110 though last night with nothing really changing. some info for you at least but not touching the game myself with CGY off such a long and successful road trip
here's what the systems look like for today:
Edmonton in the bad spot of an early season home dog off a game scoring 2+. These are 12-48 SU L60 including 4-22 SU L26 if this home dog won last game
Next I have a bunch against the Sabres. First there's a bad team (by winning %) that's a big dog trying to avenge a 2+ goal home loss last meeting. These dogs are 33-118 SU (incl OT) -135% and 50-101 (regulation) for +122% playing against them in regulation. The favs are also 17-1 L18
Then add in one ON anaheim. early season winning home favs off a home shutout win are 26-3 L29 and won 14 straight, 13 in regulation.
Flyers are next, unfortunately. They're in the same spot as the Leafs were last night....early season away dog off a shutout which moved to 50-26 +159% after last night. And they're also in a system to simply play on dogs that have 5+ straight games with 30 or more shots. These dogs are 113-91 +126% overall including 98-72 +132% if scored <=4 goals last game and 27-11 +163% if they scored just 0-1 goal last game, like Philly
Finally there's a spot against Toronto, an unrested away dog after an away win. 10-42 -152% situation they're in tonight which is also 6-34 -161% if they allowed 2 or less goals last night, which Toronto did.
Edmonton in the bad spot of an early season home dog off a game scoring 2+. These are 12-48 SU L60 including 4-22 SU L26 if this home dog won last game
Next I have a bunch against the Sabres. First there's a bad team (by winning %) that's a big dog trying to avenge a 2+ goal home loss last meeting. These dogs are 33-118 SU (incl OT) -135% and 50-101 (regulation) for +122% playing against them in regulation. The favs are also 17-1 L18
Then add in one ON anaheim. early season winning home favs off a home shutout win are 26-3 L29 and won 14 straight, 13 in regulation.
Flyers are next, unfortunately. They're in the same spot as the Leafs were last night....early season away dog off a shutout which moved to 50-26 +159% after last night. And they're also in a system to simply play on dogs that have 5+ straight games with 30 or more shots. These dogs are 113-91 +126% overall including 98-72 +132% if scored <=4 goals last game and 27-11 +163% if they scored just 0-1 goal last game, like Philly
Finally there's a spot against Toronto, an unrested away dog after an away win. 10-42 -152% situation they're in tonight which is also 6-34 -161% if they allowed 2 or less goals last night, which Toronto did.
Coyotes qualify for the struggling away team early in season...same as Bruins were in vs Buffalo last week. now 49-18 SU +172% since 2007. They also qualify for the similar, but different, struggling team away early in season which is 44-15 SU +176% since 2007. Just like last week i would put some $ on over as well as they're 39-24-4 o/u and 34-22-3 o/u in those two systems
Canucks same spot as Flyers last night taking the dog off 5+ straight games with 30+ shots on goal.
Hawks in historically a bad spot of being small away favorite after 4+ games allowing <=2 goals. These away favs are 25-47 SU -135% with heavy unders, 23-45-4 o/u. The Preds get canceled out as Hawks in the great spot of playing off a home shutout win (like ANH last night) in 1H of season. Unders quite solid in that spot as well so u5.5 is a play
one other to consider is the Kings haven't gone over in last 11 games facing an unrested opponent at home (0-8-3 o/u) allowing just 1.4 gpg and scoring just 2.2. Sabres away unrested after away game 2-10-1 o/u scoring just 1.6 gpg while allowing 2.7. Could be a nice spot for an under
Canucks same spot as Flyers last night taking the dog off 5+ straight games with 30+ shots on goal.
Hawks in historically a bad spot of being small away favorite after 4+ games allowing <=2 goals. These away favs are 25-47 SU -135% with heavy unders, 23-45-4 o/u. The Preds get canceled out as Hawks in the great spot of playing off a home shutout win (like ANH last night) in 1H of season. Unders quite solid in that spot as well so u5.5 is a play
one other to consider is the Kings haven't gone over in last 11 games facing an unrested opponent at home (0-8-3 o/u) allowing just 1.4 gpg and scoring just 2.2. Sabres away unrested after away game 2-10-1 o/u scoring just 1.6 gpg while allowing 2.7. Could be a nice spot for an under
