NHL systems 2014/15

[rolltide]

Chicago = play on a team that has outshot their opponent by 5+ in 5 straight games. 131-56 +128% including 46-21 +157% if a dog. Since Jan 2009 dogs or favs of -108 or less are 44-11 +181% in this spot


both CAL and MIN in nice spot of 1H team off a home shutout win, 150-69 SU +121% and also qualify in the 39-14 +127% tightener. CAL in best spot with small favs of -112 or dogs that are 44-27 +133% which are 26-7 +169% since 2010 season


Stars at Isles after playing last night and Isles games are 26-10-1 o/u hosting unrested including 7-0 o/u L7. Also best spot as Stars won last night which is 13-3-1 o/u next day on the island

 

[kidman232]

2-2 night, not shabby

 

[rolltide]

likely skipping sunday....

got a couple on caps but get canceled out by being unrested away dog after away fav, especially as winning away fav. terrible spot

also have stuff on sharks but a) not touching them in this brutal scheduling month (see last page) and b) ducks best team in NHL against unrested teams at home

only thing i have is on the Kings as a 1H season team off a home fav shutout win. likely passing this though...just the 6th time today in last 9 yr a team is playing a game after holding opponents to 0-1 goal in 5-straight games. just can't sustain that as only once did a team produce a 6TH straight 0-1 defensive performance.

 

[kidman232]

gl in football today

 

[Biz]

Tide,
Can you run this simple system, I really struggle with the SDQL language.

O/U
2 winning teams (50% +), home team on a BTB

 

[rolltide]

Tide,
Can you run this simple system, I really struggle with the SDQL language.

O/U
2 winning teams (50% +), home team on a BTB

by season....

WP >= 50 and o:WP >= 50 and rest = 0 and H and ...

games	SU W - L (marg, %win)	Avg Line	o:Avg Line	$ On	$ Against	On Invested	Against Invested	OU W - L- P (marg, %over)	Avg Total	SDQL
2	0-2 (-1.50, 0.0%)	-134.3	120.7	-$215	+$204	215.0	213.0	1-1-0 (-1.00, 50.0%)	5.5	season = 2014
42	24-18 (0.36, 57.1%)	-116.0	106.1	+$386	-$549	5045.0	4508.0	15-22-5 (-0.31, 40.5%)	5.3	season = 2013
28	19-9 (0.46, 67.9%)	-136.4	125.3	+$687	-$820	3880.0	2903.0	11-13-4 (0.09, 45.8%)	5.2	season = 2012
45	23-22 (0.20, 51.1%)	-115.1	104.7	-$272	+$98	5495.0	5017.0	18-24-3 (0.13, 42.9%)	5.4	season = 2011
39	16-23 (-0.41, 41.0%)	-125.7	115.6	-$1,277	+$1,063	4964.0	4053.0	20-18-1 (0.53, 52.6%)	5.3	season = 2010
34	20-14 (0.59, 58.8%)	-125.6	114.8	+$376	-$527	4466.0	3700.0	10-21-3 (-0.65, 32.3%)	5.6	season = 2009
34	18-16 (0.62, 52.9%)	-123.8	113.5	-$258	+$66	4351.0	3611.0	13-21-0 (-0.34, 38.2%)	5.5	season = 2008
45	28-17 (0.73, 62.2%)	-138.7	125.8	+$567	-$734	6355.0	4716.0	21-20-4 (0.06, 51.2%)	5.4	season = 2007
40	24-16 (0.42, 60.0%)	-129.5	118.7	+$448	-$611	5299.0	4231.0	16-21-3 (0.15, 43.2%)	5.7	season = 2006

Showing 1 to 9 of 9 entries

 

[rolltide]

one spot to look for is winning home unrested dogs with total >=5.5 vs winning team

WP >= 50 and o:WP >= 50 and rest = 0 and total > 5 and H and line > 105
SU: 11-31 (-0.88, 26.2%) avg line: 121.3 / -131.5 on / against: -$1,732 / +$1,614 ROI: -41.2% / +29.2% OU: 12-29-1 (-0.44, 29.3%) avg total: 5.6
SoG Pens P-Mins P1 P2 P3 Final Team 28.1 5.3 14.1 0.7 0.6 0.7 2.1 Opp 31.9 5.3 13.6 0.9 1.0 0.8 3.0

another would be any winning team vs winning team where home is b2b after home, total >=5.5

WP >= 50 and o:WP >= 50 and rest = 0 and H and p:H and total > 5
SU: 26-23 (0.14, 53.1%) avg line: -130.2 / 119.4 on / against: -$212 / +$16 ROI: -3.3% / +0.3% OU: 15-33-1 (-0.74, 31.2%) avg total: 5.6
SoG Pens P-Mins P1 P2 P3 Final Team 30.7 5.0 11.9 0.7 0.9 0.8 2.5 Opp 30.0 5.3 12.6 0.7 0.9 0.7 2.3

same deal but home team with revenge:

WP >= 50 and o:WP >= 50 and rest = 0 and H and p:H and P:L and total > 5
SU: 17-15 (0.31, 53.1%) avg line: -127.0 / 116.2 on / against: -$174 / +$52 ROI: -4.2% / +1.5% OU: 9-22-1 (-0.84, 29.0%) avg total: 5.6
SoG Pens P-Mins P1 P2 P3 Final Team 30.5 5.5 13.2 0.8 0.9 0.8 2.5 Opp 29.4 5.6 13.3 0.6 0.9 0.6 2.2

then this one which pops up today is home team revenge doesn't matter where they played last night:

WP >= 50 and o:WP >= 50 and rest = 0 and H and P:L and total > 5
SU: 65-60 (0.30, 52.0%) avg line: -121.7 / 110.8 on / against: -$756 / +$154 ROI: -4.8% / +1.1% OU: 44-80-1 (-0.39, 35.5%) avg total: 5.6
SoG Pens P-Mins P1 P2 P3 Final Team 30.3 5.3 13.6 0.8 1.0 0.9 2.8 Opp 29.8 5.4 13.7 0.7 0.9 0.7 2.5
Date Day Season Team Opp Site P1 P2 P3 Final Line Total SUm SUr OUr ot Oct 26, 2014 Sunday 2014 Blackhawks Senators home -190 5.5

similar to above but pull in marginally losing teams and drop opponents that are off a weak offensive game

WP > 48 and o:WP > 43 and rest = 0 and H and P:L and total > 5 and op:shots on goal > 21
SU: 83-82 (0.21, 50.3%) avg line: -129.6 / 118.4 on / against: -$2,087 / +$1,250 ROI: -9.5% / +7.1% OU: 57-108-0 (-0.24, 34.5%) avg total: 5.6
SoG Pens P-Mins P1 P2 P3 Final Team 30.4 5.3 14.0 0.9 1.0 0.8 2.8 Opp 29.5 5.6 14.7 0.7 0.9 0.8 2.6
Date Day Season Team Opp Site P1 P2 P3 Final Line Total SUm SUr OUr ot Oct 26, 2014 Sunday 2014 Blackhawks Senators home -195 5.5

 

[Biz]

one spot to look for is winning home unrested dogs with total >=5.5 vs winning team

WP >= 50 and o:WP >= 50 and rest = 0 and total > 5 and H and line > 105
SU: 11-31 (-0.88, 26.2%) avg line: 121.3 / -131.5 on / against: -$1,732 / +$1,614 ROI: -41.2% / +29.2% OU: 12-29-1 (-0.44, 29.3%) avg total: 5.6
SoG Pens P-Mins P1 P2 P3 Final Team 28.1 5.3 14.1 0.7 0.6 0.7 2.1 Opp 31.9 5.3 13.6 0.9 1.0 0.8 3.0

This is the one I was talking about. Thank You.

 

[rolltide]

Oilers in same 15-49 SU spot as early season home dog they won in last week vs Caps (i think it was caps, might have been tb) as home dog of +108 or higher that scored 2+ in previous game. A little tightener that fits Oils tonight is they won last game pushing these away teams over the 140% ROI. Oilers also just 4-12 SU as HD after winning as a fav incl 1-8 L9 ... don't love the game but i'll be on the habs

strange but true....since starting 5-4 away dogs after a win are 3-20 L23 ... and last two wins were after regulation. nothing i play, just interesting recent results (wild in that spot tonight)

 

[rolltide]

away dogs after a win now 3-21 ... really weird

Habs in 23-49 SU and 21-47-4 o/u spot as an unrested away team off away shutout

Three teams qualify for playing on struggling early-season away team vs opponent off a loss which is 49-19 L68. Coyotes, Blues, Sabres are those teams. Blues and Coyotes also qualify in the similar one with different parameters which is 44-16 L60....Sabres don't qualify in that 2nd one due to having too low of a winning percentage and also qualify as a bad dog vs a bad fav who has won just 1 of last 3 games. These dogs are just 25-53 SU L78 so not considering Buff or Tor tonight

Bruins and Pens both in play-on spots as home rested favs off an away fav win vs opponent off away game. These teams are 48-11 L59. Pens also in nice spot of home fav after away shutout...38-13 L51 while B's in nice spot hosting unrested off 3+ goals....44-16 SU including 21-3 if that team is off a loss despite 3+ goals. Wild also an ugly 17-46 SU as away dog off dog loss

Doubt I will play this one but playing against away favs off 4+ straight games allowing <=2 goals and coming in off a home win are just 30-46 L76 which is +134% on the home dog. under is a strong 29-42-5 o/u. Not sure what i'll do with this...maybe half stake on home regulation for the big odds?

Sharks this week b2b2b games in 5/7 spot ... tonight denver then thursday in minnesota and back to san jose for saturday. tonight in 3/4 and 5/7 as away fav, in altitude, vs a team that is 16-1 (12-0 L12) home off a fav loss

 

[indiana]

R/T..........BOL with your action tonight...........indy

 

[1958]

RT,
tell me what you think about this PHI and PHI UNDER

http://sportsdatabase.com/nhl/query...d+opp:goals-oppo:goals>1&submit=++S+D+Q+L+!++

 

[rolltide]

RT,
tell me what you think about this PHI and PHI UNDER

http://sportsdatabase.com/nhl/query?output=default&sdql=season%3E2007+and+po%3Agoals%3C3+and+ppo%3Agoals%3C3+and+pppo%3Agoals%3C3+and+ppppo%3Agoals%3C3+and+op%3AW+and+opp%3AW+and+op%3Agoals-opo%3Agoals%3E1+and+opp%3Agoals-oppo%3Agoals%3E1&submit=++S+D+Q+L+!++

yeah that's nice work on extending my stuff...well done. toss a "D and" in front of that bad boy


also just 5/29 overs since 2011 season and away team scored 5(1), 4(1), 3(2) and <=2 goals 25 times:

season >= 2011 and po:goals < 3 and ppo:goals < 3 and pppo:goals < 3 and ppppo:goals < 3 and op:margin > 1 and opp:margin > 1
SU: 8-21 (-1.07, 27.6%) avg line: 107.4 / -119.2 on / against: -$1,504 / +$1,414 ROI: -44.5% / +37.0% OU: 5-21-3 (-1.33, 19.2%) avg total: 5.3
SoG Pens P-Mins P1 P2 P3 Final Team 30.3 4.4 12.2 0.5 0.5 0.4 1.4 Opp 28.4 4.8 13.1 0.6 0.9 0.9 2.5
Date Day Season Team Opp Site P1 P2 P3 Final Line Total SUm SUr OUr ot Oct 28, 2014 Tuesday 2014 Kings Flyers away -108 5.0

 

[Biz]

So we are looking at:

Calgary
Mon/Cal Under
Arizona
St Louis
Boston
Pittsburgh
Colorado
LAK/Phi Under

That look right?

 

[rolltide]

put philly in there too

i personally didn't do anything with that game nor with calgary side, and played zona very small. but, yeah, that would be the list to choose from out of system stuff. to clarify, there is actually no league system with colorado, just team stuff i put together. looks like a good spot for avs to me but there is no league-wide system to KO sharks

 

[Biz]

Can Philly be played at 5 instead of 5.5??

 

[Biz]

Great work Tide.

I'll be playing a few of these. Thanks for the insights.

 

[1958]

RT,
want to play VAN, is this a good reason though?
http://sportsdatabase.com/nhl/query...+and+rest>0+and+o:rest>0&submit=++S+D+Q+L+!++

 

[rolltide]

RT,
want to play VAN, is this a good reason though?
http://sportsdatabase.com/nhl/query...+and+rest>0+and+o:rest>0&submit=++S+D+Q+L+!++

looks like it's more meaningful in a few weeks once the winning % really kick in:

p:AL and p:margin < -1 and WP < 28.8 and o:WP >= 44 and rest > 0 and o:rest > 0 and game number > 17
SU: 3-33 (-1.61, 8.3%) avg line: 160.1 / -174.0 on / against: -$2,958 / +$2,910 ROI: -80.7% / +46.2% OU: 19-13-4 (0.18, 59.4%) avg total: 5.6
SoG Pens P-Mins P1 P2 P3 Final Team 28.2 5.7 14.8 0.8 0.7 0.6 2.1 Opp 32.4 5.0 13.4 1.0 1.3 1.2 3.7

p:AL and p:margin < -1 and WP < 28.8 and o:WP >= 44 and game number > 17 and line < 240
SU: 8-48 (-1.30, 14.3%) avg line: 152.6 / -165.9 on / against: -$3,836 / +$3,725 ROI: -67.6% / +40.0% OU: 26-25-5 (0.17, 51.0%) avg total: 5.6
SoG Pens P-Mins P1 P2 P3 Final Team 28.0 5.3 13.6 0.8 0.8 0.6 2.2 Opp 32.3 4.7 12.3 1.0 1.1 1.2 3.5

 

[rolltide]

Wings in spot to oppose away dog after being away fav and home team not off a shutout loss. 59-139 SU -135% for road team ... also in the 21-68 SU -150% tightener losing h2h last meeting by 3 or less

don't love backing eastern teams after western trips though. can't run those unfortunately as dbase doesn't track time zones for nhl. decent spot though with 2 days off and 2 more days off coming you would think but never know the mindset of players that haven't been home in quite some time and don't really get back to playing normal schedule until saturday. Both teams overachieving on defense and underachieving on offense. Either skip or play Caps with OT small at -120 or push total to 5.5 +140 if you need action.