LA Kings = first half of season play on winning team off home shutout win, 37-10 SU ROI 135.2%, 31-17 regulation ROI approx 139%
ANH/NYR = oppose away dog that was just away fav if home team not off a shutout loss. 135-58 SU ROI 124.3%, 105-88 regulation ROI approx 121%. When unrested like today 37-15 +125% with OT, 31-21 +132% regulation
ANH = dominate unrested teams at home. 22-5 since jan 2012 incl 17-3 L20
ANH/NYR = oppose away dog that was just away fav if home team not off a shutout loss. 135-58 SU ROI 124.3%, 105-88 regulation ROI approx 121%. When unrested like today 37-15 +125% with OT, 31-21 +132% regulation
ANH = dominate unrested teams at home. 22-5 since jan 2012 incl 17-3 L20
today's statfox situation.... if a team off 3 straight multiple goal losses is still favored against an opponent off a 1-goal defeat, take them....
| HF and line > -159 and p:margin <= -2 and pp:margin <= -2 and ppp:margin <= -2 and op:margin = -1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
i reworked that statfox one...bring opponent in off ANY 1-goal game (w or l) and the ugly home fav does really well
even when you include the home dogs the ROI stays up there with a lot more games: looks like a decent one here
on this last one 19/67 went to OT with home team winning 15 of those so would suggest playing OT if you're on the Jets
| HF and line > -205 and p:margin <= -2 and pp:margin <= -2 and ppp:margin <= -2 and -2 < op:margin < 2 and date > 20081121 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
even when you include the home dogs the ROI stays up there with a lot more games: looks like a decent one here
| H and line > -205 and p:margin <= -2 and pp:margin <= -2 and ppp:margin <= -2 and -2 < op:margin < 2 and date > 20081121 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
on this last one 19/67 went to OT with home team winning 15 of those so would suggest playing OT if you're on the Jets
sure
up in the url type in "&show_games=N" where N=# of entries you want to show
example:
query:
HD and game number<17 and line>=123
you will see results as (so you know there are 156 total games):
| HD and game number < 17 and line >= 123 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
|
and the url should like like:
http://sportsdatabase.com/nhl/query...+number<17+and+line>=123&submit=++S+D+Q+L+!++
then just manually type in "&show_games=156" to the end of the url and hit enter:
http://sportsdatabase.com/nhl/query...line>=123&submit=++S+D+Q+L+!++&show_games=156
that'll bring up all results since 2006...
not running mon systems until tue schedule is up so i don't have to run both days but came across something interesting for tonight....as there could be an opposing one i'm not actually doing anything with this betting-wise but thought it worthy of review:
big home dogs off shutout loss like edmonton playing no more than their 6th game in 14 days are 17-56 SU ... sabres were in this spot vs bruins in that 4-0 B's mauling we were one
only one year 1-1 -$40 in 2007 did this system lose:
t:date - p5:date < 14 and p:goals = 0 and H and line > 125 and ...
Showing 1 to 9 of 9 entries
you can change the "p5" to "p3" and get essentially the same results with another handful of games that fit and it just adds 2009 to that 2007 season where it lost a few dollars
t:date -p3:date < 14 and p:goals=0 and H and line>125
using this 2nd query and isolating the last several years gets you:
see what happens later tonight when i run all my stuff which i'll do once the dbase populates tue matches
big home dogs off shutout loss like edmonton playing no more than their 6th game in 14 days are 17-56 SU ... sabres were in this spot vs bruins in that 4-0 B's mauling we were one
only one year 1-1 -$40 in 2007 did this system lose:
t:date - p5:date < 14 and p:goals = 0 and H and line > 125 and ...
| games | SU W - L (marg, %win) | Avg Line | o:Avg Line | $ On | $ Against | On Invested | Against Invested | OU W - L- P (marg, %over) | Avg Total | SDQL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0-1 (-4.00, 0.0%) | 160.5 | -178.0 | -$100 | +$100 | 100.0 | 206.0 | 0-1-0 (-1.00, 0.0%) | 5.0 | season = 2014 |
| 12 | 2-10 (-1.50, 16.7%) | 152.0 | -165.4 | -$720 | +$696 | 1200.0 | 1985.0 | 3-7-2 (-0.46, 30.0%) | 5.3 | season = 2013 |
| 4 | 1-3 (-1.50, 25.0%) | 172.0 | -187.2 | -$90 | +$70 | 400.0 | 749.0 | 2-1-1 (0.75, 66.7%) | 5.2 | season = 2012 |
| 10 | 2-8 (-1.50, 20.0%) | 141.7 | -153.8 | -$487 | +$459 | 1000.0 | 1538.0 | 2-6-2 (-0.55, 25.0%) | 5.2 | season = 2011 |
| 8 | 1-7 (-1.25, 12.5%) | 154.4 | -167.8 | -$550 | +$537 | 800.0 | 1342.0 | 5-2-1 (1.06, 71.4%) | 5.4 | season = 2010 |
| 9 | 4-5 (-0.33, 44.4%) | 149.0 | -161.7 | +$98 | -$149 | 900.0 | 1455.0 | 4-4-1 (1.72, 50.0%) | 5.5 | season = 2009 |
| 13 | 4-9 (-0.62, 30.8%) | 151.7 | -162.9 | -$264 | +$211 | 1300.0 | 2118.0 | 9-3-1 (0.65, 75.0%) | 5.5 | season = 2008 |
| 2 | 1-1 (0.50, 50.0%) | 141.5 | -151.5 | +$30 | -$40 | 200.0 | 303.0 | 0-2-0 (-2.00, 0.0%) | 5.5 | season = 2007 |
| 14 | 2-12 (-1.71, 14.3%) | 155.3 | -166.7 | -$845 | +$815 | 1400.0 | 2334.0 | 7-7-0 (0.25, 50.0%) | 5.8 | season = 2006 |
you can change the "p5" to "p3" and get essentially the same results with another handful of games that fit and it just adds 2009 to that 2007 season where it lost a few dollars
t:date -p3:date < 14 and p:goals=0 and H and line>125
using this 2nd query and isolating the last several years gets you:
| t:date - p3:date < 14 and p:goals = 0 and H and line > 125 and season >= 2010 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
see what happens later tonight when i run all my stuff which i'll do once the dbase populates tue matches
something to be aware of. Sharks upcoming schedule is littered with "5th game in 7 days" situations
starting tomorrow they play no less than TWELVE "5th in 7's" in the next month.
compare that to the Pens who have just 7 of those all year
btw, only 5 games this year does a team play in a "5 games in 6 nights" .... but none of those are before january
starting tomorrow they play no less than TWELVE "5th in 7's" in the next month.
compare that to the Pens who have just 7 of those all year
|
btw, only 5 games this year does a team play in a "5 games in 6 nights" .... but none of those are before january
oh well just realized TB plays again tomorrow so will have to run them anyway as there is no line on tb game or col game
so tonight you have the ugly spot for Oilers in post #53 (17-56 SU with 7-34 SU subset) and they also fit both the early season home dog stuff....the 50-106 SU spot in addition to the 5-31 subset.
took a peek at tue and likely plays on tb, loseapeg, detroit, and toronto but will post the spots and #'s in the morning once all lines are up
i have detroit in the early season game of a winning team after a home shutout win
tb in a play against calgary as a home dog that scored 2+ last game if they stay +108 or higher
the peg in same spot they were drubbed in last night which was the statfox play of the day...team off b2b2b multiple goal losses vs opponent off 1 goal game.
and leafs in a fun one playing a terrible team (losing by more than .50 gpg) as an away dog after getting shutout.
so tonight you have the ugly spot for Oilers in post #53 (17-56 SU with 7-34 SU subset) and they also fit both the early season home dog stuff....the 50-106 SU spot in addition to the 5-31 subset.
took a peek at tue and likely plays on tb, loseapeg, detroit, and toronto but will post the spots and #'s in the morning once all lines are up
i have detroit in the early season game of a winning team after a home shutout win
tb in a play against calgary as a home dog that scored 2+ last game if they stay +108 or higher
the peg in same spot they were drubbed in last night which was the statfox play of the day...team off b2b2b multiple goal losses vs opponent off 1 goal game.
and leafs in a fun one playing a terrible team (losing by more than .50 gpg) as an away dog after getting shutout.
after tb reg loss my personal season ytd is 14-8-2 +5.25 (18.75)
this thread's record would be higher than that as i went 2-2 on saturday and left the other 4 winners off my card. 90% of time i post them on twitter at injury_time but they're always taken from the info i put out here. plenty of threads you will find here and in tracker forum with picks without explanation if that's what you're looking for. GL
