Sportsdatabase data is from 2006 not before! sample size has not much to do with seasons.
here is ahat you asked:
http://sportsdatabase.com/nhl/query...umber<42+and+season>2007+and+tA(period+scores[0]-o%3Aperiod+scores[0]%29%3E0.50+and+HD&submit=++S+D+Q+L+!++
here is ahat you asked:
http://sportsdatabase.com/nhl/query...umber<42+and+season>2007+and+tA(period+scores[0]-o%3Aperiod+scores[0]%29%3E0.50+and+HD&submit=++S+D+Q+L+!++
eriod scores[0]) > 0.50 and HD
if you get a long-term system with a lot of plays i would say anything above 115% is worth playing as long as you do it consistently. if it's a 35-50 game system i want to see 125%+
in hockey you also have to check out OT stuff. so on a query just add "overtime=1" to see how many of those results were done in OT.
example...tonight with Sens in the 26-4 SU subset 7 of those 30 went to OT and 6 were won by home team so i decided to take the ML over the regulation .... opposite that in the pp:FW like Pens are in the OT results would not have helped ROI at all so played -102 regulation instead of -170 ML
i also have groups of teams to watch for OT. example i wouldn't play a team like TB the other night vs Devils and include regulation because the Devils go into OT so much and are so good at collecting points there. much wiser to play TB regulation (i lost either way) at "+ odds" than dropping -115 when the result is not likely to go your way in OT
similarly took Boston in OT last night because...1) system they were in teams did really well in OT, 2) neither bos nor det are heavy OT teams, 3) boston one of best OT teams, detroit one of the worst
my quick cheat sheet is:
most OT = Chi (by far), NJD, LAK, PHX, WAS, SJ
least OT = Dal, Car, Phi, Edm, Cbus, Pit, Nashv
best OT win % = Avs, SJ, Pit, Bos, Winn, TB, Cbus
worst OT win % = Car, Fla, Nash, Phx, Edm, Anh, Det
in hockey you also have to check out OT stuff. so on a query just add "overtime=1" to see how many of those results were done in OT.
example...tonight with Sens in the 26-4 SU subset 7 of those 30 went to OT and 6 were won by home team so i decided to take the ML over the regulation .... opposite that in the pp:FW like Pens are in the OT results would not have helped ROI at all so played -102 regulation instead of -170 ML
i also have groups of teams to watch for OT. example i wouldn't play a team like TB the other night vs Devils and include regulation because the Devils go into OT so much and are so good at collecting points there. much wiser to play TB regulation (i lost either way) at "+ odds" than dropping -115 when the result is not likely to go your way in OT
similarly took Boston in OT last night because...1) system they were in teams did really well in OT, 2) neither bos nor det are heavy OT teams, 3) boston one of best OT teams, detroit one of the worst
my quick cheat sheet is:
most OT = Chi (by far), NJD, LAK, PHX, WAS, SJ
least OT = Dal, Car, Phi, Edm, Cbus, Pit, Nashv
best OT win % = Avs, SJ, Pit, Bos, Winn, TB, Cbus
worst OT win % = Car, Fla, Nash, Phx, Edm, Anh, Det
before you all go jumping on big dogs thinking they must have value early in the season note dogs of 200+ in first 13 games of season are 7-38 SU (dating back to 2008) and 2-18 SU L20. Flames beating Hawks broke a 1-17 SU stretch for these huge dogs....
tonight:
Ducks in the 91-26 spot above but not the 27-4 spot the Sens were in last night and Ducks are also in a different 50-13 system for even hotter home favorites. The negative here is that the wild played the most road OT games in NHL last year but I'd still rather take the regulation knowing that in that 63 game system the road team won in regulation just 4 times. If they go to OT I'll eat the loss but great situation for ANH tonight
tonight:
Ducks in the 91-26 spot above but not the 27-4 spot the Sens were in last night and Ducks are also in a different 50-13 system for even hotter home favorites. The negative here is that the wild played the most road OT games in NHL last year but I'd still rather take the regulation knowing that in that 63 game system the road team won in regulation just 4 times. If they go to OT I'll eat the loss but great situation for ANH tonight
another early season trend to be aware of. in first 17 games of season Home Dogs of 123+ are 50-104 -122% in dbase history and, ahemm, 5-29 SU -164% L34 situations
tonight would be against Oilers if line holds...
HD and game number < 17 and line >= 123 and date>20111103 ...5-29
HD and game number<17 and line>=123 ...50-104
you can pull that first query to include dogs of 108+ and find they're just 22-66 (includes the 5-29 of course) -144% ... and if these dogs scored 2+ goals last game that drops to 12-46 -154% which will fit with playing vancouver tonight
HD and game number < 17 and line >= 108 and date>20111103 and p:goals>1 ...12-46
think i'll toss a bit on van regulation
tonight would be against Oilers if line holds...
HD and game number < 17 and line >= 123 and date>20111103 ...5-29
HD and game number<17 and line>=123 ...50-104
you can pull that first query to include dogs of 108+ and find they're just 22-66 (includes the 5-29 of course) -144% ... and if these dogs scored 2+ goals last game that drops to 12-46 -154% which will fit with playing vancouver tonight
HD and game number < 17 and line >= 108 and date>20111103 and p:goals>1 ...12-46
think i'll toss a bit on van regulation
Lets make this analysis for regulation play:
HD and game number < 17 and line >= 108 and date>20111103 and p:goals>1
and
HD and game number < 17 and line >= 108 and date > 20111103 and p:goals > 1 and overtime = 1
Therefore Canucks win rate on regulation time is (46-6-9)/(12+46)=53,44%
The odds for regulation , now is +100
Very poor indeed… Also have in mind that the filter date>20111103 is a bit arbitrary, we put it there just because it improves the results. If we were to put season>2007 then the win rate is only 42% and therefore at these odds of +100 is not a good choice. Rationally speaking this is not a good play, but tomorrow we will now for sure. Good luck anyway.
HD and game number < 17 and line >= 108 and date>20111103 and p:goals>1
| [FONT="]SU:[/FONT] | [FONT="]12-46[/FONT][FONT="] for [/FONT]Canucks[FONT="] [/FONT] |
HD and game number < 17 and line >= 108 and date > 20111103 and p:goals > 1 and overtime = 1
| [FONT="]SU:[/FONT] | [FONT="]6-9[/FONT] |
The odds for regulation , now is +100
Very poor indeed… Also have in mind that the filter date>20111103 is a bit arbitrary, we put it there just because it improves the results. If we were to put season>2007 then the win rate is only 42% and therefore at these odds of +100 is not a good choice. Rationally speaking this is not a good play, but tomorrow we will now for sure. Good luck anyway.
i think you're missing a few things here. first off all what happens last 3-4 years should always be taken into account more than what went on in 2007-2009, etc ... i'm worried about the Wild getting game to OT tonight not because of what their OT rate was in 2010 but what it was most recently...that takes precedence over everything when considering systems.
second, went figuring out potential ROI fit you have to use consistent numbers. Even if it were "just" 53.44% that is nice value to get +118 which it was a few minutes ago on 5dimes. even +100 is 50/50 so you're ahead of the game but taking a play that is 53.44 but getting +118 implies Van has a 45.8% chance to win in reg.... vs the 53.44% that is considerable value
If i were to rationalize your #'s I would do the following:
1) first off the dbase tells you the overall ROI and including OT it's 137.4%...ROI is what matters, always will.
2) to back into a possible ROI is much easier than you're making it out. Simply take regulation wins (37) and take out all OT games (15) and regulation losses (6). So you've got 37-21 for regulation with avg line -137 which, in regulation terms, is equal to approximately +120 (unless you have some shit line book like bol). That gives you roughly 24u of profit out of 58 bets, or 140%. not too shabby and above the ML + OT ROI, thus the preferred bet
anyway, not here to explain away every nuance of a play but i would definitely argue with your definition of win rate (which wasn't nearly correct), available odds (you posted +100 which is way under available), and what should be considered value vs non-value (even +100 is value vs 53.44% if that were the correct win rate which is actually 63.8%).
interesting one here....not playing it but thought y'all might want to see
was messing around with dbase seeing winless florida as away fav. so this is away team as either fav or dog up to +113 off 3 straight losses and playing a team with a better record and off a win. historically a hell of a spot for Florida (aka bookies have no respect for home team and for good reason)
was messing around with dbase seeing winless florida as away fav. so this is away team as either fav or dog up to +113 off 3 straight losses and playing a team with a better record and off a win. historically a hell of a spot for Florida (aka bookies have no respect for home team and for good reason)
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Sens and Caps both qualify in a nice 72-20 SU subset of a 102-46 SU system playing on home teams that scored on a fairly low % of shots previous game and own superior howme win % than their opponent who isn't well rested. These ended 2013/2014 on 9-1 run and 30-9 overall after a 20-4 2012/13 season.
Caps also catch Florida in the 10-40 SU spot of unrested away dog off away win and are 3-32 SU as a dog after an away win (including 1-15 SU if unrested).
Bruins in the nice 255-85 SU fav system of a big fav off nice offensive game with a 43-17 subset meeting a team off a 1-goal loss. Also catching Buff in that 50-105 SU early season dog system with the 5-30 SU subset
Nashville appear in the 10-40 SU dog spot of unrested away dog off away win while Arizona in the 12-47 SU early season home dog after scoring spot.
Vancouver are in the "hot home fav", 91-26, and "very hot home fav", 51-13, situation
Wings/Leafs in a 38-67-6 o/u spot that lost last week with the Isles....playing under in 2nd of b2b games. Detroit a solid 35-5 SU at home off a win vs unrested opponent
Caps also catch Florida in the 10-40 SU spot of unrested away dog off away win and are 3-32 SU as a dog after an away win (including 1-15 SU if unrested).
Bruins in the nice 255-85 SU fav system of a big fav off nice offensive game with a 43-17 subset meeting a team off a 1-goal loss. Also catching Buff in that 50-105 SU early season dog system with the 5-30 SU subset
Nashville appear in the 10-40 SU dog spot of unrested away dog off away win while Arizona in the 12-47 SU early season home dog after scoring spot.
Vancouver are in the "hot home fav", 91-26, and "very hot home fav", 51-13, situation
Wings/Leafs in a 38-67-6 o/u spot that lost last week with the Isles....playing under in 2nd of b2b games. Detroit a solid 35-5 SU at home off a win vs unrested opponent
Tide,
Awesome as always. A few questions:
- Whats a nice offensive game? 4 goals, 5 goals??
- whats the Arizona scoring spot? How many triggers that play??
- what is a hot home fav? 2 in a row, 3??
Thanks for all you do.
