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HacheMan

HacheMan

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Top rookie fantasy picks, sleepers

Alshon Jeffery, Kendall Wright among rookies who could put up big numbers

Top rookie fantasy picks, sleepers

Alshon Jeffery, Kendall Wright among rookies who could put up big numbers

By Mel Kiper Jr. | ESPN Insider


Generally speaking, when it comes to NFL rookies, fantasy stardom isn't in the cards.


Cam Newton may have had one of the greatest statistical seasons for a rookie in NFL history in terms of raw fantasy stats in 2011, but if you owned him after a Week 4 loss to the Bears where he threw for 374 yards and ran for two touchdowns, you may have been a little disappointed. Not once after that game did Newton crack the 300-yard mark as a passer, and in seven of the remaining games, he threw one or zero touchdowns. But Newton had tremendous value as a runner, rushing for 10 touchdowns over the final 12 games.
Point being, rookies -- even the best ones -- are where you find value, not the linchpin in a great fantasy team. This season, Newton's average draft position is 17.4. The highest rookie? You can't find one until average pick No. 37, when Trent Richardson of the Cleveland Browns is coming off the board.
For this exercise, I'll mix obvious choices, guys I suspect may create some value and sleepers. I'll also point out some why-not cases, in which I'd advise you to stay away and not buy into the hype.
The obvious



QB Andrew Luck: In ESPN leagues, Luck is, on average, the No. 16 quarterback off the board, just behind Jay Cutler and just ahead of Alex Smith. This might sound optimistic, but I can see Luck putting up pretty significant totals (3,600-4,000 yards). He is going to look remarkably comfortable and familiar in Bruce Arians' offense right out of the gate -- the Colts did great work in the draft to find some weapons for Luck -- and the Colts will be playing from behind a lot this season. I don't think it's merely hype that has him being drafted higher than plenty of more established starters.
<offer>QB Robert Griffin III: I don't see RG3 putting up quite the same totals as Luck because he faces a steeper learning curve, but he does have a better set of weapons. Plus, Griffin can use his feet in the red zone -- though I can assure you the Redskins don't want games to turn into a regular display of RG3's running ability. I'd draft him lower than Luck, but he is being taken four quarterbacks earlier on average.
RB Doug Martin: He is being taken No. 30 among running backs, and I wouldn't put a 1,000-yard season out of the question for a healthy Martin. He is reliable as a runner, holds onto the ball (where LeGarrette Blount loses points) and will catch passes, adding value.
RB David Wilson: The Giants didn't take the explosive Wilson in the first round as an insurance plan. The stretch where Ahmad Bradshaw missed four games last season really limited the Giants running game, and I can see a 50-50 split in carries. Bradshaw has carried more than 175 times just once in five seasons. Wilson will pick up the other half.
Why not:


WR Stephen Hill: I know, I know. He is already a starter. But Hill has a lot to learn about more complex passing schemes and route-running, and the Jets are still finding ways to get Tim Tebow more involved in the offense. Suffice to say, "fantasy potency" and "Jets passing game" don't belong in the same sentence.
RB Trent Richardson: I don't doubt the ability; I just want to see him healthy. The Browns should be careful with him, and I suspect they will be.
Don't be surprised

RB Isaiah Pead: Ranked No. 64 on ESPN draft boards among running backs, Pead should be much higher. He gives the Rams running game the explosiveness it has lacked, and Steven Jackson's carry total dipped by 70 from 2010 to 2011. The Rams might want to see that number drop further. Pead could be a steal.
TEs Coby Fleener/Dwayne Allen: Combined, I can see this tandem catching 50-60 passes for 800-1,000 yards. Luck loves his tight ends, and these guys could be touchdown-makers, particularly in the red zone. I'd go with Fleener first, but don't sleep on Allen.
WR Alshon Jeffery: He has looked good early and becomes a constant matchup advantage if teams want to help on Brandon Marshall. I'm leery of saying Jeffery can be a big yardage guy this season because the Bears are determined to run better and spread the ball around in the passing game, but he could quickly become the No. 2 man behind Marshall and be a touchdown poacher.
WR Kendall Wright: If Kenny Britt gets suspended, Wright could pick up the slack. He is ranked No. 52 among wide receivers in selection order.
RB LaMichael James: Unless Alex Smith becomes a quarterback I haven't yet seen, there is no guarantee that the new additions to the San Francisco passing game will amount to more explosiveness for this offense. In handing the ball to James, as well as throwing to him, Jim Harbaugh can create big plays without asking Smith to stretch his comfort zone. I wouldn't be surprised to see James get his share of touches.
WR Travis Benjamin: You won't be taking Cleveland pass-catchers high in any draft, but Benjamin is a sleeper. I could see him getting a lot of Mohamed Massaquoi's reps and creating some big plays for an offense that could use them.
Why not:
WR A.J. Jenkins: The first-round pick is a fourth or fifth option in the San Francisco passing game. That doesn't scream fantasy value.


Sleepers

WR LaVon Brazill: A draft sleeper out of Ohio, he could get plenty of first-team reps this season on a team where Reggie Wayne and Austin Collie are the top wide receiver options.
WR Rueben Randle: He provides size and matchup problems that backups Jerrel Jernigan and Domenik Hixon don't. He could work his way into the mix early, and we have seen guys explode if Eli Manning finds a comfort zone with them. Hakeem Nicks' foot issues are also in play.
RB Cyrus Gray: This is a player with legitimate breakaway speed who dropped to the late rounds only because of health. Jamaal Charles is coming off an ACL tear, and Peyton Hillis lacks explosiveness and has a tendency to put the ball on the ground. Gray could get his shot at some point.
WR T.J. Graham: Buffalo could use some run-after-the-catch ability outside of splitting C.J. Spiller out, and Graham can flat-out fly. Chan Gailey should find some touches for him.
TE Michael Egnew: The Miami passing game could be limited by its quarterbacks, but Egnew could come on later because he has great hands and athleticism. A young quarterback can be helped by a tight end that not only separates but has a wide catch radius. That's Egnew.
WR T.Y. Hilton: Arians got the ball to a number of wide receivers in Pittsburgh, and if he floods coverages in Indy, Hilton could be a sleeper. He is probably a slot guy, but Hilton has plenty of explosiveness and run-after-the-catch ability.
TE Taylor Thompson: A defensive end in college, the Titans hope Thompson can be the next Antonio Gates or Jimmy Graham. With Thompson, it's all about the profile -- 6-foot-6 and 260 pounds for a guy who can really run. Don't grab him expecting anything soon, but he is a fun sleeper to watch.
</offer>
 
HacheMan

HacheMan

hacheman@therx.com
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Flex Appeal
Something I’ve noticed over the last few years is that most fantasy owners don’t put much thought into the position they should be targeting for their flex slot.

Generally, running back seems like the logical way to go, but with the question marks at the position; and considering the depth at wide receiver and emergence of the tight end position, it’s a discussion worth having.

The issue is that it’s not as cut and dry at it seems. Considering how many teams are in your league, which positions are flex eligible, the number of starting slots for each position, and, of course, the league scoring is key.

Today, I’ll tell you the right positions – and players – you should be targeting in four popular formats.

Note: We’ll assume, for the purpose of this article, that only RB, WR, and TE are Flex eligible. I considered doubling the workload and showing charts for 16-team leagues, but the results are so similar to 12-teamers, that I didn’t bother. Those of you in 14 or 16-team leagues can apply the conclusions found below to your leagues with confidence.

12 teams – Non-PPR – 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 1 Flex

Referring to the most-recent Rotoworld projections, we see the following:



<table style="width: 489px;" border="1" cellSpacing="0" cellPadding="0"><colgroup><col width="37"><col width="28"><col width="91"><col width="13"><col width="43"><col width="28"><col width="114"><col width="10"><col width="35"><col width="28"><col width="62"></colgroup><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;" class="xl65" height="20" width="37">Pos</td><td style="text-align: center;" class="xl66" width="28">Pts</td><td style="text-align: center;" class="xl66" width="91">Player</td><td style="text-align: center;" class="xl67" width="13"> </td><td style="text-align: center;" class="xl66" width="43">Pos</td><td style="text-align: center;" class="xl66" width="28">Pts</td><td style="text-align: center;" class="xl66" width="114">Player</td><td style="text-align: center;" class="xl67" width="10"> </td><td style="text-align: center;" class="xl65" width="35">Pos</td><td style="text-align: center;" class="xl66" width="28">Pts</td><td style="text-align: center;" class="xl68" width="62">Player</td></tr><tr><td style="text-align: center;" class="xl81" height="20">RB25</td><td style="text-align: center;" class="xl80">160</td><td style="text-align: center;" class="xl80">Spiller</td><td style="text-align: center;" class="xl71"> </td><td style="text-align: center;" class="xl80">WR25</td><td style="text-align: center;" class="xl80">143</td><td style="text-align: center;" class="xl80">S. Johnson</td><td style="text-align: center;" class="xl71"> </td><td style="text-align: center;" class="xl69">TE13</td><td style="text-align: center;" class="xl70">104</td><td style="text-align: center;" class="xl72">Cook</td></tr><tr><td style="text-align: center;" class="xl82" height="20">RB26</td><td style="text-align: center;" class="xl64">159</td><td style="text-align: center;" class="xl64">McGahee</td><td style="text-align: center;" class="xl74"> </td><td style="text-align: center;" class="xl64">WR26</td><td style="text-align: center;" class="xl64">142</td><td style="text-align: center;" class="xl64">Garcon</td><td style="text-align: center;" class="xl74"> </td><td style="text-align: center;" class="xl73">TE14</td><td style="text-align: center;" class="xl63">103</td><td style="text-align: center;" class="xl75">Olsen</td></tr><tr><td style="text-align: center;" class="xl82" height="20">RB27</td><td style="text-align: center;" class="xl64">155</td><td style="text-align: center;" class="xl64">Greene</td><td style="text-align: center;" class="xl74"> </td><td style="text-align: center;" class="xl64">WR27</td><td style="text-align: center;" class="xl64">142</td><td style="text-align: center;" class="xl64">A. Brown</td><td style="text-align: center;" class="xl74"> </td><td style="text-align: center;" class="xl73">TE15</td><td style="text-align: center;" class="xl63">102</td><td style="text-align: center;" class="xl75">Keller</td></tr><tr><td style="text-align: center;" class="xl82" height="20">RB28</td><td style="text-align: center;" class="xl64">152</td><td style="text-align: center;" class="xl64">Wells</td><td style="text-align: center;" class="xl74"> </td><td style="text-align: center;" class="xl64">WR28</td><td style="text-align: center;" class="xl64">141</td><td style="text-align: center;" class="xl64">D. Jackson</td><td style="text-align: center;" class="xl74"> </td><td style="text-align: center;" class="xl73">TE16</td><td style="text-align: center;" class="xl63">98</td><td style="text-align: center;" class="xl75">Celek</td></tr><tr><td style="text-align: center;" class="xl82" height="20">RB29</td><td style="text-align: center;" class="xl64">141</td><td style="text-align: center;" class="xl64">Ridley</td><td style="text-align: center;" class="xl74"> </td><td style="text-align: center;" class="xl63">WR29</td><td style="text-align: center;" class="xl63">137</td><td style="text-align: center;" class="xl63">T. Smith</td><td style="text-align: center;" class="xl74"> </td><td style="text-align: center;" class="xl73">TE17</td><td style="text-align: center;" class="xl63">91</td><td style="text-align: center;" class="xl75">Gresham</td></tr><tr><td style="text-align: center;" class="xl82" height="20">RB30</td><td style="text-align: center;" class="xl64">141</td><td style="text-align: center;" class="xl64">Ingram</td><td style="text-align: center;" class="xl74"> </td><td style="text-align: center;" class="xl63">WR30</td><td style="text-align: center;" class="xl63">135</td><td style="text-align: center;" class="xl63">Collie</td><td style="text-align: center;" class="xl74"> </td><td style="text-align: center;" class="xl73">TE18</td><td style="text-align: center;" class="xl63">88</td><td style="text-align: center;" class="xl75">Daniels</td></tr><tr><td style="text-align: center;" class="xl82" height="20">RB31</td><td style="text-align: center;" class="xl64">139</td><td style="text-align: center;" class="xl64">Redman</td><td style="text-align: center;" class="xl74"> </td><td style="text-align: center;" class="xl63">WR31</td><td style="text-align: center;" class="xl63">134</td><td style="text-align: center;" class="xl63">Meachem</td><td style="text-align: center;" class="xl74"> </td><td style="text-align: center;" class="xl73">TE19</td><td style="text-align: center;" class="xl63">88</td><td style="text-align: center;" class="xl75">Fleener</td></tr><tr><td style="text-align: center;" class="xl82" height="20">RB32</td><td style="text-align: center;" class="xl64">139</td><td style="text-align: center;" class="xl64">D. Williams</td><td style="text-align: center;" class="xl74"> </td><td style="text-align: center;" class="xl63">WR32</td><td style="text-align: center;" class="xl63">133</td><td style="text-align: center;" class="xl63">D. Moore</td><td style="text-align: center;" class="xl74"> </td><td style="text-align: center;" class="xl73">TE20</td><td style="text-align: center;" class="xl63">86</td><td style="text-align: center;" class="xl75">H. Miller</td></tr><tr><td style="text-align: center;" class="xl73" height="20">RB33</td><td style="text-align: center;" class="xl63">135</td><td style="text-align: center;" class="xl63">D. Brown</td><td style="text-align: center;" class="xl74"> </td><td style="text-align: center;" class="xl63">WR33</td><td style="text-align: center;" class="xl63">132</td><td style="text-align: center;" class="xl63">Wayne</td><td style="text-align: center;" class="xl74"> </td><td style="text-align: center;" class="xl73">TE21</td><td style="text-align: center;" class="xl63">85</td><td style="text-align: center;" class="xl75">Lewis</td></tr><tr><td style="text-align: center;" class="xl73" height="20">RB34</td><td style="text-align: center;" class="xl63">123</td><td style="text-align: center;" class="xl63">Tate</td><td style="text-align: center;" class="xl74"> </td><td style="text-align: center;" class="xl63">WR34</td><td style="text-align: center;" class="xl63">128</td><td style="text-align: center;" class="xl63">Holmes</td><td style="text-align: center;" class="xl74"> </td><td style="text-align: center;" class="xl73">TE22</td><td style="text-align: center;" class="xl63">83</td><td style="text-align: center;" class="xl75">Bennett</td></tr><tr><td style="text-align: center;" class="xl73" height="20">RB35</td><td style="text-align: center;" class="xl63">121</td><td style="text-align: center;" class="xl63">Green-Ellis</td><td style="text-align: center;" class="xl74"> </td><td style="text-align: center;" class="xl63">WR35</td><td style="text-align: center;" class="xl63">125</td><td style="text-align: center;" class="xl63">Britt</td><td style="text-align: center;" class="xl74"> </td><td style="text-align: center;" class="xl73">TE23</td><td style="text-align: center;" class="xl63">79</td><td style="text-align: center;" class="xl75">Moeaki</td></tr><tr><td style="text-align: center;" class="xl76" height="20">RB36</td><td style="text-align: center;" class="xl77">120</td><td style="text-align: center;" class="xl77">Helu</td><td style="text-align: center;" class="xl78"> </td><td style="text-align: center;" class="xl77">WR36</td><td style="text-align: center;" class="xl77">122</td><td style="text-align: center;" class="xl77">Heyward-Bey</td><td style="text-align: center;" class="xl78"> </td><td style="text-align: center;" class="xl76">TE24</td><td style="text-align: center;" class="xl77">77</td><td style="text-align: center;" class="xl79">Housler</td></tr></tbody></table>
What we’re looking for here is the top 12 point totals, as they will make for the best-case flex options. Heading into this draft, you should be leaning towards three running backs in your starting lineup, but it’s not a big deal if you go with what is essentially a WR3. Notice that, although eight running backs make up the top 12 point totals, wideout No. 36 is only 17 points behind RB32 – our lowest-scoring flex play. Backup tight ends are no threat to their counterparts at running back and wide receiver and should never be considered for the flex spot in this format.

Before I move on, it’s important to note that this process will assume that everyone drafting is relatively competent. On occasion, you might find yourself in a league where a top-20 running back or wideout falls to you when you’re selecting a flex. When that happens, compare where you have that player ranked to the projected points shown in the charts you’ll see here today. In our first example, top-20 backs and wideouts are obviously good flex plays, but, our No. 3 overall tight end (138 points) is on the fringe.

12 teams – Non-PPR – 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 Flex



<table style="width: 491px;" border="1" cellSpacing="0" cellPadding="0"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;" vAlign="bottom" width="37" noWrap="">
Pos​
</td><td style="text-align: center;" vAlign="bottom" width="28" noWrap="">
Pts​
</td><td style="text-align: center;" vAlign="bottom" width="91" noWrap="">
Player​
</td><td style="text-align: center;" vAlign="bottom" width="13" noWrap=""> </td><td style="text-align: center;" vAlign="bottom" width="43" noWrap="">
Pos​
</td><td style="text-align: center;" vAlign="bottom" width="28" noWrap="">
Pts​
</td><td style="text-align: center;" vAlign="bottom" width="115" noWrap="">
Player​
</td><td style="text-align: center;" vAlign="bottom" width="11" noWrap=""> </td><td style="text-align: center;" vAlign="bottom" width="35" noWrap="">
Pos​
</td><td style="text-align: center;" vAlign="bottom" width="28" noWrap="">
Pts​
</td><td style="text-align: center;" vAlign="bottom" width="63" noWrap="">
Player​
</td></tr><tr><td style="text-align: center;" vAlign="bottom" width="37" noWrap="">
RB25​
</td><td style="text-align: center;" vAlign="bottom" width="28" noWrap="">
160​
</td><td style="text-align: center;" vAlign="bottom" width="91" noWrap="">
Spiller​
</td><td style="text-align: center;" vAlign="bottom" width="13" noWrap=""> </td><td style="text-align: center;" vAlign="bottom" width="43" noWrap="">
WR37​
</td><td style="text-align: center;" vAlign="bottom" width="28" noWrap="">
120​
</td><td style="text-align: center;" vAlign="bottom" width="115" noWrap="">
Little​
</td><td style="text-align: center;" vAlign="bottom" width="11" noWrap=""> </td><td style="text-align: center;" vAlign="bottom" width="35" noWrap="">
TE13​
</td><td style="text-align: center;" vAlign="bottom" width="28" noWrap="">
104​
</td><td style="text-align: center;" vAlign="bottom" width="63" noWrap="">
Cook​
</td></tr><tr><td style="text-align: center;" vAlign="bottom" width="37" noWrap="">
RB26​
</td><td style="text-align: center;" vAlign="bottom" width="28" noWrap="">
159​
</td><td style="text-align: center;" vAlign="bottom" width="91" noWrap="">
McGahee​
</td><td style="text-align: center;" vAlign="bottom" width="13" noWrap=""> </td><td style="text-align: center;" vAlign="bottom" width="43" noWrap="">
WR38​
</td><td style="text-align: center;" vAlign="bottom" width="28" noWrap="">
118​
</td><td style="text-align: center;" vAlign="bottom" width="115" noWrap="">
Crabtree​
</td><td style="text-align: center;" vAlign="bottom" width="11" noWrap=""> </td><td style="text-align: center;" vAlign="bottom" width="35" noWrap="">
TE14​
</td><td style="text-align: center;" vAlign="bottom" width="28" noWrap="">
103​
</td><td style="text-align: center;" vAlign="bottom" width="63" noWrap="">
Olsen​
</td></tr><tr><td style="text-align: center;" vAlign="bottom" width="37" noWrap="">
RB27​
</td><td style="text-align: center;" vAlign="bottom" width="28" noWrap="">
155​
</td><td style="text-align: center;" vAlign="bottom" width="91" noWrap="">
Greene​
</td><td style="text-align: center;" vAlign="bottom" width="13" noWrap=""> </td><td style="text-align: center;" vAlign="bottom" width="43" noWrap="">
WR39​
</td><td style="text-align: center;" vAlign="bottom" width="28" noWrap="">
117​
</td><td style="text-align: center;" vAlign="bottom" width="115" noWrap="">
Rice​
</td><td style="text-align: center;" vAlign="bottom" width="11" noWrap=""> </td><td style="text-align: center;" vAlign="bottom" width="35" noWrap="">
TE15​
</td><td style="text-align: center;" vAlign="bottom" width="28" noWrap="">
102​
</td><td style="text-align: center;" vAlign="bottom" width="63" noWrap="">
Keller​
</td></tr><tr><td style="text-align: center;" vAlign="bottom" width="37" noWrap="">
RB28​
</td><td style="text-align: center;" vAlign="bottom" width="28" noWrap="">
152​
</td><td style="text-align: center;" vAlign="bottom" width="91" noWrap="">
Wells​
</td><td style="text-align: center;" vAlign="bottom" width="13" noWrap=""> </td><td style="text-align: center;" vAlign="bottom" width="43" noWrap="">
WR40​
</td><td style="text-align: center;" vAlign="bottom" width="28" noWrap="">
113​
</td><td style="text-align: center;" vAlign="bottom" width="115" noWrap="">
S. Moss​
</td><td style="text-align: center;" vAlign="bottom" width="11" noWrap=""> </td><td style="text-align: center;" vAlign="bottom" width="35" noWrap="">
TE16​
</td><td style="text-align: center;" vAlign="bottom" width="28" noWrap="">
98​
</td><td style="text-align: center;" vAlign="bottom" width="63" noWrap="">
Celek​
</td></tr><tr><td style="text-align: center;" vAlign="bottom" width="37" noWrap="">
RB29​
</td><td style="text-align: center;" vAlign="bottom" width="28" noWrap="">
141​
</td><td style="text-align: center;" vAlign="bottom" width="91" noWrap="">
Ridley​
</td><td style="text-align: center;" vAlign="bottom" width="13" noWrap=""> </td><td style="text-align: center;" vAlign="bottom" width="43" noWrap="">
WR41​
</td><td style="text-align: center;" vAlign="bottom" width="28" noWrap="">
109​
</td><td style="text-align: center;" vAlign="bottom" width="115" noWrap="">
M. Williams​
</td><td style="text-align: center;" vAlign="bottom" width="11" noWrap=""> </td><td style="text-align: center;" vAlign="bottom" width="35" noWrap="">
TE17​
</td><td style="text-align: center;" vAlign="bottom" width="28" noWrap="">
91​
</td><td style="text-align: center;" vAlign="bottom" width="63" noWrap="">
Gresham​
</td></tr><tr><td style="text-align: center;" vAlign="bottom" width="37" noWrap="">
RB30​
</td><td style="text-align: center;" vAlign="bottom" width="28" noWrap="">
141​
</td><td style="text-align: center;" vAlign="bottom" width="91" noWrap="">
Ingram​
</td><td style="text-align: center;" vAlign="bottom" width="13" noWrap=""> </td><td style="text-align: center;" vAlign="bottom" width="43" noWrap="">
WR42​
</td><td style="text-align: center;" vAlign="bottom" width="28" noWrap="">
108​
</td><td style="text-align: center;" vAlign="bottom" width="115" noWrap="">
Boldin​
</td><td style="text-align: center;" vAlign="bottom" width="11" noWrap=""> </td><td style="text-align: center;" vAlign="bottom" width="35" noWrap="">
TE18​
</td><td style="text-align: center;" vAlign="bottom" width="28" noWrap="">
88​
</td><td style="text-align: center;" vAlign="bottom" width="63" noWrap="">
Daniels​
</td></tr><tr><td style="text-align: center;" vAlign="bottom" width="37" noWrap="">
RB31​
</td><td style="text-align: center;" vAlign="bottom" width="28" noWrap="">
139​
</td><td style="text-align: center;" vAlign="bottom" width="91" noWrap="">
Redman​
</td><td style="text-align: center;" vAlign="bottom" width="13" noWrap=""> </td><td style="text-align: center;" vAlign="bottom" width="43" noWrap="">
WR43​
</td><td style="text-align: center;" vAlign="bottom" width="28" noWrap="">
107​
</td><td style="text-align: center;" vAlign="bottom" width="115" noWrap="">
Ma. Floyd​
</td><td style="text-align: center;" vAlign="bottom" width="11" noWrap=""> </td><td style="text-align: center;" vAlign="bottom" width="35" noWrap="">
TE19​
</td><td style="text-align: center;" vAlign="bottom" width="28" noWrap="">
88​
</td><td style="text-align: center;" vAlign="bottom" width="63" noWrap="">
Fleener​
</td></tr><tr><td style="text-align: center;" vAlign="bottom" width="37" noWrap="">
RB32​
</td><td style="text-align: center;" vAlign="bottom" width="28" noWrap="">
139​
</td><td style="text-align: center;" vAlign="bottom" width="91" noWrap="">
D. Williams​
</td><td style="text-align: center;" vAlign="bottom" width="13" noWrap=""> </td><td style="text-align: center;" vAlign="bottom" width="43" noWrap="">
WR44​
</td><td style="text-align: center;" vAlign="bottom" width="28" noWrap="">
106​
</td><td style="text-align: center;" vAlign="bottom" width="115" noWrap="">
L. Moore​
</td><td style="text-align: center;" vAlign="bottom" width="11" noWrap=""> </td><td style="text-align: center;" vAlign="bottom" width="35" noWrap="">
TE20​
</td><td style="text-align: center;" vAlign="bottom" width="28" noWrap="">
86​
</td><td style="text-align: center;" vAlign="bottom" width="63" noWrap="">
H. Miller​
</td></tr><tr><td style="text-align: center;" vAlign="bottom" width="37" noWrap="">
RB33​
</td><td style="text-align: center;" vAlign="bottom" width="28" noWrap="">
135​
</td><td style="text-align: center;" vAlign="bottom" width="91" noWrap="">
D. Brown​
</td><td style="text-align: center;" vAlign="bottom" width="13" noWrap=""> </td><td style="text-align: center;" vAlign="bottom" width="43" noWrap="">
WR45​
</td><td style="text-align: center;" vAlign="bottom" width="28" noWrap="">
105​
</td><td style="text-align: center;" vAlign="bottom" width="115" noWrap="">
R. Moss​
</td><td style="text-align: center;" vAlign="bottom" width="11" noWrap=""> </td><td style="text-align: center;" vAlign="bottom" width="35" noWrap="">
TE21​
</td><td style="text-align: center;" vAlign="bottom" width="28" noWrap="">
85​
</td><td style="text-align: center;" vAlign="bottom" width="63" noWrap="">
Lewis​
</td></tr><tr><td style="text-align: center;" vAlign="bottom" width="37" noWrap="">
RB34​
</td><td style="text-align: center;" vAlign="bottom" width="28" noWrap="">
123​
</td><td style="text-align: center;" vAlign="bottom" width="91" noWrap="">
Tate​
</td><td style="text-align: center;" vAlign="bottom" width="13" noWrap=""> </td><td style="text-align: center;" vAlign="bottom" width="43" noWrap="">
WR46​
</td><td style="text-align: center;" vAlign="bottom" width="28" noWrap="">
105​
</td><td style="text-align: center;" vAlign="bottom" width="115" noWrap="">
LaFell​
</td><td style="text-align: center;" vAlign="bottom" width="11" noWrap=""> </td><td style="text-align: center;" vAlign="bottom" width="35" noWrap="">
TE22​
</td><td style="text-align: center;" vAlign="bottom" width="28" noWrap="">
83​
</td><td style="text-align: center;" vAlign="bottom" width="63" noWrap="">
Bennett​
</td></tr><tr><td style="text-align: center;" vAlign="bottom" width="37" noWrap="">
RB35​
</td><td style="text-align: center;" vAlign="bottom" width="28" noWrap="">
121​
</td><td style="text-align: center;" vAlign="bottom" width="91" noWrap="">
Green-Ellis​
</td><td style="text-align: center;" vAlign="bottom" width="13" noWrap=""> </td><td style="text-align: center;" vAlign="bottom" width="43" noWrap="">
WR47​
</td><td style="text-align: center;" vAlign="bottom" width="28" noWrap="">
104​
</td><td style="text-align: center;" vAlign="bottom" width="115" noWrap="">
Washington​
</td><td style="text-align: center;" vAlign="bottom" width="11" noWrap=""> </td><td style="text-align: center;" vAlign="bottom" width="35" noWrap="">
TE23​
</td><td style="text-align: center;" vAlign="bottom" width="28" noWrap="">
79​
</td><td style="text-align: center;" vAlign="bottom" width="63" noWrap="">
Moeaki​
</td></tr><tr><td style="text-align: center;" vAlign="bottom" width="37" noWrap="">
RB36​
</td><td style="text-align: center;" vAlign="bottom" width="28" noWrap="">
120​
</td><td style="text-align: center;" vAlign="bottom" width="91" noWrap="">
Helu​
</td><td style="text-align: center;" vAlign="bottom" width="13" noWrap=""> </td><td style="text-align: center;" vAlign="bottom" width="43" noWrap="">
WR48​
</td><td style="text-align: center;" vAlign="bottom" width="28" noWrap="">
103​
</td><td style="text-align: center;" vAlign="bottom" width="115" noWrap="">
Wright​
</td><td style="text-align: center;" vAlign="bottom" width="11" noWrap=""> </td><td style="text-align: center;" vAlign="bottom" width="35" noWrap="">
TE24​
</td><td style="text-align: center;" vAlign="bottom" width="28" noWrap="">
77​
</td><td style="text-align: center;" vAlign="bottom" width="63" noWrap="">
Housler​
</td></tr></tbody></table>
The 2RB/3WR/1TE/1Flex format is quickly gaining popularity. As you see from our chart, deciding on where to go for your flex is very easy in this type of league. Because wide receivers ranked 25-through-36 are now forced into starting lineups, the third dozen set of running backs is now the easy choice for your flex position. Don’t make the mistake of overlooking the impact of that third wide receiver slot. You’ll be playing at a major disadvantage with a wideout or tight end in the flex.

12 teams – PPR – 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 1 Flex



<table style="width: 491px;" border="1" cellSpacing="0" cellPadding="0"><tbody><tr><td vAlign="bottom" width="37" noWrap="">
Pos​
</td><td vAlign="bottom" width="28" noWrap="">
Pts​
</td><td vAlign="bottom" width="91" noWrap="">
Player​
</td><td vAlign="bottom" width="13" noWrap=""> </td><td vAlign="bottom" width="43" noWrap="">
Pos​
</td><td vAlign="bottom" width="28" noWrap="">
Pts​
</td><td vAlign="bottom" width="115" noWrap="">
Player​
</td><td vAlign="bottom" width="11" noWrap=""> </td><td vAlign="bottom" width="35" noWrap="">
Pos​
</td><td vAlign="bottom" width="28" noWrap="">
Pts​
</td><td vAlign="bottom" width="63" noWrap="">
Player​
</td></tr><tr><td vAlign="bottom" width="37" noWrap="">
RB25​
</td><td vAlign="bottom" width="28" noWrap="">
179​
</td><td vAlign="bottom" width="91" noWrap="">
Greene​
</td><td vAlign="bottom" width="13" noWrap=""> </td><td vAlign="bottom" width="43" noWrap="">
WR25​
</td><td vAlign="bottom" width="28" noWrap="">
214​
</td><td vAlign="bottom" width="115" noWrap="">
A. Brown​
</td><td vAlign="bottom" width="11" noWrap=""> </td><td vAlign="bottom" width="35" noWrap="">
TE13​
</td><td vAlign="bottom" width="28" noWrap="">
163​
</td><td vAlign="bottom" width="63" noWrap="">
Cook​
</td></tr><tr><td vAlign="bottom" width="37" noWrap="">
RB26​
</td><td vAlign="bottom" width="28" noWrap="">
176​
</td><td vAlign="bottom" width="91" noWrap="">
McGahee​
</td><td vAlign="bottom" width="13" noWrap=""> </td><td vAlign="bottom" width="43" noWrap="">
WR26​
</td><td vAlign="bottom" width="28" noWrap="">
211​
</td><td vAlign="bottom" width="115" noWrap="">
Collie​
</td><td vAlign="bottom" width="11" noWrap=""> </td><td vAlign="bottom" width="35" noWrap="">
TE14​
</td><td vAlign="bottom" width="28" noWrap="">
161​
</td><td vAlign="bottom" width="63" noWrap="">
Keller​
</td></tr><tr><td vAlign="bottom" width="37" noWrap="">
RB27​
</td><td vAlign="bottom" width="28" noWrap="">
175​
</td><td vAlign="bottom" width="91" noWrap="">
Turner​
</td><td vAlign="bottom" width="13" noWrap=""> </td><td vAlign="bottom" width="43" noWrap="">
WR27​
</td><td vAlign="bottom" width="28" noWrap="">
210​
</td><td vAlign="bottom" width="115" noWrap="">
Garcon​
</td><td vAlign="bottom" width="11" noWrap=""> </td><td vAlign="bottom" width="35" noWrap="">
TE15​
</td><td vAlign="bottom" width="28" noWrap="">
159​
</td><td vAlign="bottom" width="63" noWrap="">
Celek​
</td></tr><tr><td vAlign="bottom" width="37" noWrap="">
RB28​
</td><td vAlign="bottom" width="28" noWrap="">
169​
</td><td vAlign="bottom" width="91" noWrap="">
D. Brown​
</td><td vAlign="bottom" width="13" noWrap=""> </td><td vAlign="bottom" width="43" noWrap="">
WR28​
</td><td vAlign="bottom" width="28" noWrap="">
208​
</td><td vAlign="bottom" width="115" noWrap="">
V. Jackson​
</td><td vAlign="bottom" width="11" noWrap=""> </td><td vAlign="bottom" width="35" noWrap="">
TE16​
</td><td vAlign="bottom" width="28" noWrap="">
159​
</td><td vAlign="bottom" width="63" noWrap="">
Olsen​
</td></tr><tr><td vAlign="bottom" width="37" noWrap="">
RB29​
</td><td vAlign="bottom" width="28" noWrap="">
165​
</td><td vAlign="bottom" width="91" noWrap="">
Wells​
</td><td vAlign="bottom" width="13" noWrap=""> </td><td vAlign="bottom" width="43" noWrap="">
WR29​
</td><td vAlign="bottom" width="28" noWrap="">
205​
</td><td vAlign="bottom" width="115" noWrap="">
D. Jackson​
</td><td vAlign="bottom" width="11" noWrap=""> </td><td vAlign="bottom" width="35" noWrap="">
TE17​
</td><td vAlign="bottom" width="28" noWrap="">
149​
</td><td vAlign="bottom" width="63" noWrap="">
Gresham​
</td></tr><tr><td vAlign="bottom" width="37" noWrap="">
RB30​
</td><td vAlign="bottom" width="28" noWrap="">
164​
</td><td vAlign="bottom" width="91" noWrap="">
Ingram​
</td><td vAlign="bottom" width="13" noWrap=""> </td><td vAlign="bottom" width="43" noWrap="">
WR30​
</td><td vAlign="bottom" width="28" noWrap="">
202​
</td><td vAlign="bottom" width="115" noWrap="">
Wayne​
</td><td vAlign="bottom" width="11" noWrap=""> </td><td vAlign="bottom" width="35" noWrap="">
TE18​
</td><td vAlign="bottom" width="28" noWrap="">
145​
</td><td vAlign="bottom" width="63" noWrap="">
Daniels​
</td></tr><tr><td vAlign="bottom" width="37" noWrap="">
RB31​
</td><td vAlign="bottom" width="28" noWrap="">
160​
</td><td vAlign="bottom" width="91" noWrap="">
Redman​
</td><td vAlign="bottom" width="13" noWrap=""> </td><td vAlign="bottom" width="43" noWrap="">
WR31​
</td><td vAlign="bottom" width="28" noWrap="">
194​
</td><td vAlign="bottom" width="115" noWrap="">
Meachem​
</td><td vAlign="bottom" width="11" noWrap=""> </td><td vAlign="bottom" width="35" noWrap="">
TE19​
</td><td vAlign="bottom" width="28" noWrap="">
143​
</td><td vAlign="bottom" width="63" noWrap="">
H. Miller​
</td></tr><tr><td vAlign="bottom" width="37" noWrap="">
RB32​
</td><td vAlign="bottom" width="28" noWrap="">
154​
</td><td vAlign="bottom" width="91" noWrap="">
D. Williams​
</td><td vAlign="bottom" width="13" noWrap=""> </td><td vAlign="bottom" width="43" noWrap="">
WR32​
</td><td vAlign="bottom" width="28" noWrap="">
191​
</td><td vAlign="bottom" width="115" noWrap="">
T. Smith​
</td><td vAlign="bottom" width="11" noWrap=""> </td><td vAlign="bottom" width="35" noWrap="">
TE20​
</td><td vAlign="bottom" width="28" noWrap="">
139​
</td><td vAlign="bottom" width="63" noWrap="">
Fleener​
</td></tr><tr><td vAlign="bottom" width="37" noWrap="">
RB33​
</td><td vAlign="bottom" width="28" noWrap="">
153​
</td><td vAlign="bottom" width="91" noWrap="">
Ridley​
</td><td vAlign="bottom" width="13" noWrap=""> </td><td vAlign="bottom" width="43" noWrap="">
WR33​
</td><td vAlign="bottom" width="28" noWrap="">
190​
</td><td vAlign="bottom" width="115" noWrap="">
Little​
</td><td vAlign="bottom" width="11" noWrap=""> </td><td vAlign="bottom" width="35" noWrap="">
TE21​
</td><td vAlign="bottom" width="28" noWrap="">
136​
</td><td vAlign="bottom" width="63" noWrap="">
Lewis​
</td></tr><tr><td vAlign="bottom" width="37" noWrap="">
RB34​
</td><td vAlign="bottom" width="28" noWrap="">
148​
</td><td vAlign="bottom" width="91" noWrap="">
Helu​
</td><td vAlign="bottom" width="13" noWrap=""> </td><td vAlign="bottom" width="43" noWrap="">
WR34​
</td><td vAlign="bottom" width="28" noWrap="">
189​
</td><td vAlign="bottom" width="115" noWrap="">
Holmes​
</td><td vAlign="bottom" width="11" noWrap=""> </td><td vAlign="bottom" width="35" noWrap="">
TE22​
</td><td vAlign="bottom" width="28" noWrap="">
131​
</td><td vAlign="bottom" width="63" noWrap="">
Bennett​
</td></tr><tr><td vAlign="bottom" width="37" noWrap="">
RB35​
</td><td vAlign="bottom" width="28" noWrap="">
146​
</td><td vAlign="bottom" width="91" noWrap="">
P. Thomas​
</td><td vAlign="bottom" width="13" noWrap=""> </td><td vAlign="bottom" width="43" noWrap="">
WR35​
</td><td vAlign="bottom" width="28" noWrap="">
184​
</td><td vAlign="bottom" width="115" noWrap="">
D. Moore​
</td><td vAlign="bottom" width="11" noWrap=""> </td><td vAlign="bottom" width="35" noWrap="">
TE23​
</td><td vAlign="bottom" width="28" noWrap="">
124​
</td><td vAlign="bottom" width="63" noWrap="">
Moeaki​
</td></tr><tr><td vAlign="bottom" width="37" noWrap="">
RB36​
</td><td vAlign="bottom" width="28" noWrap="">
146​
</td><td vAlign="bottom" width="91" noWrap="">
Hillman​
</td><td vAlign="bottom" width="13" noWrap=""> </td><td vAlign="bottom" width="43" noWrap="">
WR36​
</td><td vAlign="bottom" width="28" noWrap="">
182​
</td><td vAlign="bottom" width="115" noWrap="">
Crabtree​
</td><td vAlign="bottom" width="11" noWrap=""> </td><td vAlign="bottom" width="35" noWrap="">
TE24​
</td><td vAlign="bottom" width="28" noWrap="">
119​
</td><td vAlign="bottom" width="63" noWrap="">
Pitta​
</td></tr></tbody></table>
Next up, we make the switch to PPR leagues. This chart shows the massive boost wide receivers and tight ends see when one point is awarded for each reception. In this format, running backs have a lot less value. In fact, once you get your top two backs (preferably in the first two or three rounds), you don’t have to worry about adding depth for a while. Opposite of what we talked about in our previous example, not going with a wide receiver in your flex in this format puts you at a disadvantage. Notice that tight ends begin to enter the flex conversation when the move is made to PPR.

12 teams – PPR – 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 Flex

<table style="width: 489px;" border="1" cellSpacing="0" cellPadding="0"><colgroup><col width="37"><col width="28"><col width="91"><col width="13"><col width="43"><col width="28"><col width="114"><col width="10"><col width="35"><col width="28"><col width="62"></colgroup><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;" class="xl67" height="20" width="37">Pos</td><td style="text-align: center;" class="xl68" width="28">Pts</td><td style="text-align: center;" class="xl68" width="91">Player</td><td style="text-align: center;" class="xl69" width="13"> </td><td style="text-align: center;" class="xl82" width="43">Pos</td><td style="text-align: center;" class="xl82" width="28">Pts</td><td style="text-align: center;" class="xl82" width="114">Player</td><td style="text-align: center;" class="xl69" width="10"> </td><td style="text-align: center;" class="xl67" width="35">Pos</td><td style="text-align: center;" class="xl68" width="28">Pts</td><td style="text-align: center;" class="xl70" width="62">Player</td></tr><tr><td style="text-align: center;" class="xl83" height="20">RB25</td><td style="text-align: center;" class="xl82">179</td><td style="text-align: center;" class="xl82">Greene</td><td style="text-align: center;" class="xl71"> </td><td style="text-align: center;" class="xl83">WR37</td><td style="text-align: center;" class="xl82">181</td><td style="text-align: center;" class="xl85">Britt</td><td style="text-align: center;" class="xl73"> </td><td style="text-align: center;" class="xl71">TE13</td><td style="text-align: center;" class="xl72">163</td><td style="text-align: center;" class="xl74">Cook</td></tr><tr><td style="text-align: center;" class="xl84" height="20">RB26</td><td style="text-align: center;" class="xl66">176</td><td style="text-align: center;" class="xl66">McGahee</td><td style="text-align: center;" class="xl75"> </td><td style="text-align: center;" class="xl84">WR38</td><td style="text-align: center;" class="xl66">178</td><td style="text-align: center;" class="xl86">Heyward-Bey</td><td style="text-align: center;" class="xl76"> </td><td style="text-align: center;" class="xl75">TE14</td><td style="text-align: center;" class="xl65">161</td><td style="text-align: center;" class="xl77">Keller</td></tr><tr><td style="text-align: center;" class="xl84" height="20">RB27</td><td style="text-align: center;" class="xl66">175</td><td style="text-align: center;" class="xl66">Turner</td><td style="text-align: center;" class="xl75"> </td><td style="text-align: center;" class="xl84">WR39</td><td style="text-align: center;" class="xl66">177</td><td style="text-align: center;" class="xl86">S. Moss</td><td style="text-align: center;" class="xl76"> </td><td style="text-align: center;" class="xl75">TE15</td><td style="text-align: center;" class="xl65">159</td><td style="text-align: center;" class="xl77">Celek</td></tr><tr><td style="text-align: center;" class="xl84" height="20">RB28</td><td style="text-align: center;" class="xl66">169</td><td style="text-align: center;" class="xl66">D. Brown</td><td style="text-align: center;" class="xl75"> </td><td style="text-align: center;" class="xl84">WR40</td><td style="text-align: center;" class="xl66">172</td><td style="text-align: center;" class="xl86">Rice</td><td style="text-align: center;" class="xl76"> </td><td style="text-align: center;" class="xl75">TE16</td><td style="text-align: center;" class="xl65">159</td><td style="text-align: center;" class="xl77">Olsen</td></tr><tr><td style="text-align: center;" class="xl84" height="20">RB29</td><td style="text-align: center;" class="xl66">165</td><td style="text-align: center;" class="xl66">Wells</td><td style="text-align: center;" class="xl75"> </td><td style="text-align: center;" class="xl84">WR41</td><td style="text-align: center;" class="xl66">168</td><td style="text-align: center;" class="xl86">Boldin</td><td style="text-align: center;" class="xl76"> </td><td style="text-align: center;" class="xl75">TE17</td><td style="text-align: center;" class="xl65">149</td><td style="text-align: center;" class="xl77">Gresham</td></tr><tr><td style="text-align: center;" class="xl84" height="20">RB30</td><td style="text-align: center;" class="xl66">164</td><td style="text-align: center;" class="xl66">Ingram</td><td style="text-align: center;" class="xl75"> </td><td style="text-align: center;" class="xl84">WR42</td><td style="text-align: center;" class="xl66">163</td><td style="text-align: center;" class="xl86">M. Williams</td><td style="text-align: center;" class="xl76"> </td><td style="text-align: center;" class="xl75">TE18</td><td style="text-align: center;" class="xl65">145</td><td style="text-align: center;" class="xl77">Daniels</td></tr><tr><td style="text-align: center;" class="xl75" height="20">RB31</td><td style="text-align: center;" class="xl65">160</td><td style="text-align: center;" class="xl65">Redman</td><td style="text-align: center;" class="xl75"> </td><td style="text-align: center;" class="xl75">WR43</td><td style="text-align: center;" class="xl65">160</td><td style="text-align: center;" class="xl77">L. Moore</td><td style="text-align: center;" class="xl76"> </td><td style="text-align: center;" class="xl75">TE19</td><td style="text-align: center;" class="xl65">143</td><td style="text-align: center;" class="xl77">H. Miller</td></tr><tr><td style="text-align: center;" class="xl75" height="20">RB32</td><td style="text-align: center;" class="xl65">154</td><td style="text-align: center;" class="xl65">D. Williams</td><td style="text-align: center;" class="xl75"> </td><td style="text-align: center;" class="xl75">WR44</td><td style="text-align: center;" class="xl65">159</td><td style="text-align: center;" class="xl77">Wright</td><td style="text-align: center;" class="xl76"> </td><td style="text-align: center;" class="xl75">TE20</td><td style="text-align: center;" class="xl65">139</td><td style="text-align: center;" class="xl77">Fleener</td></tr><tr><td style="text-align: center;" class="xl75" height="20">RB33</td><td style="text-align: center;" class="xl65">153</td><td style="text-align: center;" class="xl65">Ridley</td><td style="text-align: center;" class="xl75"> </td><td style="text-align: center;" class="xl75">WR45</td><td style="text-align: center;" class="xl65">157</td><td style="text-align: center;" class="xl77">LaFell</td><td style="text-align: center;" class="xl76"> </td><td style="text-align: center;" class="xl75">TE21</td><td style="text-align: center;" class="xl65">136</td><td style="text-align: center;" class="xl77">Lewis</td></tr><tr><td style="text-align: center;" class="xl75" height="20">RB34</td><td style="text-align: center;" class="xl65">148</td><td style="text-align: center;" class="xl65">Helu</td><td style="text-align: center;" class="xl75"> </td><td style="text-align: center;" class="xl75">WR46</td><td style="text-align: center;" class="xl65">156</td><td style="text-align: center;" class="xl77">Bess</td><td style="text-align: center;" class="xl76"> </td><td style="text-align: center;" class="xl75">TE22</td><td style="text-align: center;" class="xl65">131</td><td style="text-align: center;" class="xl77">Bennett</td></tr><tr><td style="text-align: center;" class="xl75" height="20">RB35</td><td style="text-align: center;" class="xl65">146</td><td style="text-align: center;" class="xl65">P. Thomas</td><td style="text-align: center;" class="xl75"> </td><td style="text-align: center;" class="xl75">WR47</td><td style="text-align: center;" class="xl65">155</td><td style="text-align: center;" class="xl77">Washington</td><td style="text-align: center;" class="xl76"> </td><td style="text-align: center;" class="xl75">TE23</td><td style="text-align: center;" class="xl65">124</td><td style="text-align: center;" class="xl77">Moeaki</td></tr><tr><td style="text-align: center;" class="xl78" height="20">RB36</td><td style="text-align: center;" class="xl79">146</td><td style="text-align: center;" class="xl79">Hillman</td><td style="text-align: center;" class="xl78"> </td><td style="text-align: center;" class="xl78">WR48</td><td style="text-align: center;" class="xl79">153</td><td style="text-align: center;" class="xl81">Blackmon</td><td style="text-align: center;" class="xl80"> </td><td style="text-align: center;" class="xl78">TE24</td><td style="text-align: center;" class="xl79">119</td><td style="text-align: center;" class="xl81">Pitta</td></tr></tbody></table>
Moving to PPR leagues that use three wide receivers, we see – like earlier – that running back depth becomes more important. Our chart shows six running backs and six wide receivers as the ideal flex contributors. This is the only format we’ve talked about where you can’t go wrong with a back or wideout in the flex. In fact, this is the tight end position’s best shot at flex consideration, as well. Note that four tight ends outside the top 12 are within four total points of our last flex player. Considering some margin of error, no one could fault you for plugging a player from any of these three positions into your flex in this format.
 
HacheMan

HacheMan

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List Crazy

By Matthew Berry | ESPN.com

You know what the people like? The people, they like the lists.

Rankings, sleepers, best-dressed, whatever. If it's a list, people want to see it. And apparently, if it has to take you tons of clicks to flip through one list, people like that even more. Sigh. I can't help you there, as this is all on one page and there are no cheerleader picture here to prompt you to get all the way through the column. But lists? Lists I got. Ten of them, in fact.



List One: 10 additional facts that I couldn't fit in my "100 Facts You Need To Know Before You Draft




1. According to FootballOutsiders.com, in 32 career games, Ryan Mathews has been on the injury report 15 times, or almost half his games.


2. That includes two games when he was listed as "questionable" and didn't play, and one game (Week 13, 2010) where he was actually listed as "Probable," was active for the game but didn't get on the field.


3. This season, the Chargers have just four games that start at 1 p.m. ET.


4. As my colleague AJ Mass points out, over the past three years, no rookie running back has averaged at least 80 yards in a minimum of 10 games.


5. Trent Richardson has had two surgeries on his left knee since the start of the year.


6. The Browns are scheduled to play seven games against teams that were top 10 in rushing defense last season, including two each against the Ravens, the Steelers and the Bengals. They also have games against the Chargers (top 12 in fewest points allowed to opposing backs) and what should be a vastly improved Buffalo defense.


7. Last season, Darren Sproles tied for seventh in red zone targets. Among all players.


8. Last season, when DeMarco Murray got 20-plus carries, the Cowboys were 5-0. When he got fewer or didn't play? They were 3-8.


9. Calvin Johnson had 16 touchdowns last season. As Peter Newmann of ESPN Stats and Information points outs, in the history of the NFL there have been only four other wideouts that have scored 16 touchdowns in a season. None of them scored more than 13 the following season.


10. More from Newmann: Last season, Megatron had over 1,600 receiving yards. In the history of the NFL, there have been only five other wide receivers to catch over 1,600 yards worth of passes in a season, and none of them got to 1,600 the next year, and only Marvin Harrison (in 2000) had more than 1,400.



List Two: 10 "what if?" scenarios to consider, or, as I like to call it, 'playing fast and loose with simple math'

1. Last season, only Tom Brady, Matthew Stafford and Drew Brees attempted more passes to tight ends than Cam Newton. So what if Greg Olsen (89 targets, 45 receptions, 540 yards, five TDs) inherits the bulk of targets from Jeremy Shockey (62 targets, 37 receptions, 455 yards, four scores last season)?


2. Ron Rivera and Rob Chudzinski were with the Chargers in 2009 and 2010. As J.B. Kritz of ESPN Stats and Information points out, in those two years combined Mike Tolbert had 12 red zone rushing touchdowns, which tied him for 13th in the NFL. And in just 2010, Tolbert tied for the fifth-most red zone touchdowns. Rivera and Chudzinski are now is Carolina, as is Tolbert and the recently-paid Jonathan Stewart. What if Newton doesn't get all those goal-line rushing plays they called for him last year?


3. More Cam. What if Cam's passing is more like the second half (when he had more than 212 yards passing in a game only twice in his final eight games) that the first eight (seven such games)?


4. And just to bring everything full circle, what if Le'Ron McClain gets Tolbert's goal-line carries in San Diego?


5. Last year, Mario Manningham had 12 red zone targets. And Jake Ballard had 13 red zone targets, tied for the team lead with Hakeem Nicks. What if a majority of those red zone targets go to Martellus Bennett?


6. Over the past four years with Brady (not counting 2008), Wes Welker has averaged 150 targets. What if, instead of the 173 he got last year, Welker gets only 150, his career average with Brady? So what if we take the leftover 23 targets and add them to the 122 targets that Deion Branch and Chad Johnson got last year, and what if all 145 targets went to Brandon Lloyd, Josh McDaniels' favorite wide receiver?
7. What if Brian Hartline (15.7 yards per catch, 12.8 yards at catch last year) gets healthy and got at least 75 percent of Brandon Marshall's 141 targets last season?


8. In 2010, with Peyton Manning calling the plays, there were only seven teams in the NFL that ran the ball more inside an opponent's 9-yard line than the Indianapolis Colts. They had 38 such carries split among many players. Among individual players in 2010, Michael Turner lead the NFL with 41 such carries and Arian Foster was second with 39. What if Willis McGahee gets almost 38 of them?


9. What if Chiefs offensive coordinator Brian Daboll, who got 16 games out of Peyton Hillis in 2010 and got 15 games out of Reggie Bush in 2011, manages to get 16 games out of both Jamaal Charles and Hillis this season?


10. What if Michael Vick and Darren McFadden each play all 16 games?



List Three: 10 highest-upside running backs that are going later than the 12th round on ESPN.com




1. Ryan Williams, Cardinals (15th round): If healthy, could very easily be the guy. As I wrote in Love/Hate; "Tore his patellar tendon last year. Still healthier than Beanie Wells."


2. Daniel Thomas, Dolphins (13th): Sorry, Reggie, but one season does not an iron man make. Post-hype sleeper?


3. Rashad Jennings, Jaguars (15th round): You realize Maurice Jones-Drew still hasn't reported yet, right?


4. Mike Goodson, Raiders (16th round): As of this writing, the guy I feel gets the first shot if something happens to McFadden. Which is not a bad gamble in Round 16.


5. Phillip Tanner, Cowboys (not drafted): If something happens to Murray (entirely possible), I'd rather have Tanner than Felix Jones.


6. Kendall Hunter, 49ers (not drafted): I think I've made my feelings on Frank Gore this year fairly clear.


7. Jacquizz Rodgers, Falcons (16th round): Not like I'm real fond of Michael Turner, either.


8. Jonathan Dwyer, Steelers (16th round): Mendenhall is out, Redman is banged up and the Steelers will still run some.


9. Bilal Powell, Jets (not drafted): What has Shonn Greene ever proved, exactly? Tim Tebow won't take every red zone carry.


10. Evan Royster, Redskins (16th round): At some point this year, he will start. The questions is ... will you have the guts to start him, too? By the way, don't be shocked if Alfred Morris gets a start. It's Mike Shanahan.



List Four: Best fantasy football team names as suggested to me on Twitter, Part I




Not surprisingly, many names involving Rams rookie Isaiah Pead, Falcons running back Jacquizz Rodgers and the Penn State scandal were suggested. And just like all the names involving "Vick" and "Johnson," I can't print them. Carly Rae Jepsen's huge hit song was a big theme this time around, among them; "Khalil Me Maybe," "Collie Me Maybe" "Here's my number, call me McGahee" and "Call me Brady." (If you want to see all entries, you can search #TMRTEAMNAME on Twitter.)

1. Brady Gaga (@andeeezy_)
2. The Book of Eli (@ben5trode)
3. Gronk if your horny (@chief_badarasz)
4. Weeden Start the Fire (@travis_B-evans)
5. Belicheck Yourself before you Rex Yourself (@beardaddy)
6. Wilfork for Food (@J_Breck)
7. The World is your Royster / A Mike Goodson Production (@panpipeninja)
8. Pete Caroll-ine (Bum Bum Bum) (@allennorth)
9. My wife doesn't know about this team so please don't tell her (@deltakoz)
10. Living on a Pryor (@_chris_barnes_)



List Five: My top 10




Now, I've already done my "Loves" and "100 Facts" (which is mostly just a sleeper/bust column in disguise), but to be honest, there's a lot of names. So, to try to narrow it down some, here are the 10 guys I feel the strongest about their performance exceeding their draft day value. The reasoning for each choice is covered in depth in Love/Hate and 100 Facts.


1. Aaron Rodgers and Brady as the top two overall picks, the idea of needing to take quarterbacks and elite tight ends early, as outlined in the Draft Day Manifesto. Rodgers is money in the bank, of course, but a crazy monster year coming for Brady, and Jimmy Graham surpasses Rob Gronkowski as the top-scoring tight end.


2. Matt Forte, a legit No. 1 fantasy running back this year.


3. BenJarvus Green-Ellis; nothing sexy, just solid production and double-digit touchdowns.


4. Brandon Marshall. No disrespect to Matt Moore or anything, but ...


5. Brandon Lloyd. Seriously, I can't write any more about him.


6. Peyton Hillis. Brian Daboll is magic.


7. Percy Harvin. Among my favorite stats from Love/Hate: Once Christian Ponder took over in Week 7, Harvin led all wide receivers in offensive touches with 100. Second-most was Wes Welker ... with 74!


8. Antonio Brown. Even his Twitter avatar rules.


9. Torrey Smith. He's getting the deep targets; just needs a few more of them to land near him.


10. Fred Davis. "RG3 rolls right, pressure comes, goes through his progressions and ... finds Davis in the flat! That's another Washington Redskins ... First Down!"



List Six: 10 things I'm kinda buying




Preseason is always filled with lots of hype and chatter filling websites, cable networks, radio stations, podcasts, blogs, newspapers and magazines. Here are 10 things I'm willing to put at least some stock into:


1. That this is the year Donald Brown finally breaks out.


2. That Pierre Garcon is due for a big year.


3. As is Titus Young.
4. That, with only Cedric Benson, James Starks and Brandon Saine ahead of him, Alex Green could be meaningful in fantasy as early as the second half of the season once he fully regains his health.


5. That Danny Amendola and " the other Steve Smith" could be a lot better than you think in St. Louis.
6. That this could finally be the year for Matt Ryan.


7. That my love of Vincent Brown is justified.

8. That Jamaal Charles is all the way back.

9. That new Buccaneer guards Carl Nicks and Davin Joseph will help Doug Martin and LeGarrette Blount -- in that order -- to have really strong years running the ball.


10. That we don't need to panic about Chris Johnson. Yet.



List Seven: Best fantasy football team names as suggested to me on Twitter, Part II




1. Moons over my Tamme / FunkyColdFleener (codydow82)
2. McKayla's Not Impressed (@bballcoachd)
3. Luck be a Brady Tonight (@CVSE7EN)
4. Based on Push by Sapphire (@dontwikewotso)
5. You're in the 06010 (@roxybear17) -- so sue me, this one's for me.
6. Good is the new mediocre (@stan76hall) -- as is this one.
7. Reverse Cowgirl (@honda05)
8. Tebow scared me shirtless (@thetory)
9. In the Garden of Weeden (@kpkline1605)
10. Gronky Punch (@Alex_J_Page)



List Eight: 10 UBGTNOWBIWWYDTBWBTKOSPWGDDVTWHYWs (unsexy, boring guys that no one will be impressed with when you draft them, but will be the kind of solid producers with good draft-day value that will help you win)




1. Steven Jackson, RB, Rams: Going in the 4th, ho-hum, over 1,400 total yards for four straight seasons.


2. Fred Jackson, RB, Bills: Last year, through Week 10, he was fourth in the NFL in offensive touches and first in total yards from scrimmage. Jackson missed basically seven games and was still the 13th-best fantasy running back, tied with Frank Gore. Even if he splits time with C.J. Spiller, there's still plenty of value for a guy going in the middle of the fourth.


3. Willis McGahee, RB, Broncos: See List Two, item eight.


4. BenJarvis Green-Ellis, RB, Bengals: How much more can I write about this guy?


5. Stevie Johnson, WR, Bills: Back-to-back 1,000-yard seasons. Going in the seventh round.


6. Mark Ingram, RB, Saints: Did you know there were only five teams in the NFL last year with more red zone rushes than the New Orleans Saints? Going in the late ninth round.


7. Reggie Wayne, WR, Colts: Lotta Colts are undervalued this year.


8. Austin Collie, WR, Colts: Like this guy. The Colts are not gonna be great but they're not gonna be terrible, either. They are all being drafted like they've got bubonic plague or something.


9. Tony Gonzalez, TE, Falcons: Not a ton of upside anymore but also very little downside.


10. Matthew Berry, TMR, Worldwide Leader: Not every week, mind you, but occasionally helpful.



List Nine:

Ten things I've noticed as I've done more and more mock drafts

1. That if I don't get a tight end early (Graham, Gronk or Antonio Gates), I want to be one of the last ones to get a tight end.


2. That if you go quarterback and tight end in the first two rounds, there are a number of solid running backs in the third that I am more than fine with having, assuming I now have a clear-cut advantage at the two most consistent positions (in general). I've been getting guys like Jamaal Charles, Fred Jackson, occasionally Marshawn Lynch, Steven Jackson.


3. Sigmund Bloom is a guy I follow on Twitter and respect a lot. I noticed he said something to the effect recently that "I'd have a hard time drafting a wide receiver before Round 3" which, frankly, is a more helpful way to express what I've also been saying all summer, that wide receiver is crazy deep. As Sigmund wrote me in an email, "I definitely would not take a wide receiver in the 1st or 2nd. RB/QB/TE in the first and almost always RB in the 2nd, unless a top-2 QB or TE falls. WR value is too strong in the 4th-5th-6th to spend early picks at the position." Sigmund and I are on the exact same page here.


4. It's gonna have to be insanely, insanely late for me to draft a running back from the Redskins, Panthers, Patriots or Packers.


5. Average draft position is largely influenced by the default rankings of whatever site you are using for your draft. Personally, I think we are insanely low on Doug Martin, but it explains why he is going in the ninth, according to our current average draft results. Just be aware and spend some time with your personal rankings and compare them with the default ranks. Because when you are on the clock with only a minute and you're just scrolling through the next few listed running backs, there might be some guys you forget in the moment. Knowing where there are big gaps in your ranks and the default ranks/ADP will help you a great deal.
6. If I don't get a quarterback early, I want to wait and be the last guy to fill his quarterback slot. Eli Manning, Peyton Manning, Philip Rivers, Tony Romo and, if you believe, Matt Ryan are all in same tier for me in terms of risk and reward.


7. The sixth and seventh rounds are money rounds. Among the guys I love in those rounds: Willis McGahee, Brandon Lloyd, Reggie Bush, Vincent Jackson, Dwayne Bowe, BenJarvus Green-Ellis, Percy Harvin, Jeremy Maclin, DeSean Jackson and Stevie Johnson.


8. Safe early, upside later. There is no such thing as bad pick after Round 10. Unless you're taking a kicker or defense before the final two rounds. To mix sports metaphors, when it gets to that point, swing for the fences and don't worry about striking out. Much better to snag a guy like Kendall Wright, who might be amazing or might be nothing, than someone like Nate Burleson, who is what he is at this point.


9. I've managed to wind up with Randall Cobb in almost every draft I've done.


10. And successfully avoided Andre Johnson, who keeps going in the second. Ugh.



List 10: Best fantasy football team names as suggested to me on Twitter, Part III




1. Learning from my Vickstakes (@guytightpants) -- I may take this one for myself
2. Hakeema Matata (@TiffAPaino)
3. "RG3PO" and "ABC: Easy as RG3" (@HiggySmalls15)
4. Nancy Screw and the Party Boys (@MaizeCraze)
5. Henne Badger Don't Care (@markrounds5)
6. Teenage Newton Ninja Turtles (@Frankie_Soprano)
7. That's What She Bid (@rjmaxa)
8. Whoa Whoa Whoa, Stop the Gronk (@jasonandrewz) -- for us Stern fans.
9. Sprole'n with the homies (@mike_cohn)
10. Off in a Corner (@cranesofdale)
 
HacheMan

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Stock Watch: Witten slides in TE ranks
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Eric Karabell

Dallas Cowboys tight end Jason Witten has been one of the most consistent, durable tight ends over the past eight seasons, but Wednesday's disconcerting news about him having a lacerated spleen and internal bleeding is scary, and enough to send fantasy owners looking elsewhere. Yes, it's possible Witten returns for Week 1 and performs as well as ever, but this situation isn't like that of San Diego Chargers running back Ryan Mathews, who similarly could return from his broken clavicle for September games.




<offer>There just aren't enough reliable running backs for fantasy owners to count on this season, but that is not the case at tight end, where some of my favorite late-round sleepers reside. Plus, Mathews has first-round upside; Witten does not.</offer>
<offer></offer>
<offer>Witten's stock takes a considerably larger hit than Mathews' stock, for example, and this is certainly reflected in my updated rankings, where Witten went from a safe sixth-round pick to eighth among tight ends and barely top 100 overall. He's now behind Jermichael Finley and Tony Gonzalez (who I seem to be getting in all my drafts). It's nothing against Witten personally, of course, but we need to be realistic about his value.


Frankly, depending on the size of the league and whether I thought my other flex options were such that I might consider using a tight end at that position -- that's new this year within ESPN Fantasy games! -- I might keep bypassing Witten. The risk just isn't worth the reward. He wasn't going to be Rob Gronkowski, after all, and other tight ends also catch many passes. It's hardly uncommon for Witten owners to whine about his lack of touchdown prowess, or being streaky. Miss a game or two or play at a reduced level and I like Brandon Pettigrew, Jared Cook and Jacob Tamme better, too. Tight end is deep this year, no matter the format.


Obviously we'll keep a close eye on Witten's progress, but the latest news has him missing the entire preseason, and Cowboys coach Jason Garrett said it's premature to discuss Week 1. We should all want Witten healthy, for his sake first, because this is a serious injury, one suffered in Monday's preseason game against the Oakland Raiders on what appeared to be a casual hit. It's certainly possible Witten becomes a bit too ignored in drafts the next few weeks, and becomes a sleeper, so don't be too cautious.


As for how the Cowboys potentially move on, I wouldn't call fill-in tight ends John Phillips or James Hanna fantasy-worthy yet, but it's reasonable to wonder about quarterback Tony Romo, who relies on Witten. ESPN Stats & Info reports Romo has completed 72.3 percent of his passes thrown in Witten's direction since 2009, the fourth highest completion percentage among QB/TE combinations in that span. With wide receivers Dez Bryant and Miles Austin giving many of us pause lately, and running back DeMarco Murray having only seven NFL starts to his name, one can see how the Dallas offense looks potentially sketchy in September. For now, though, I'll leave Romo's stock alone.


Witten's drop in the rankings is clear, but here are some other players who have seen their stock rise and fall recently, either in the average live draft results (ADP) or simple perception. Here is last week's ADP blog entry, too, and you'll see the names change.



Movin' on up




Kevin Smith, RB, Detroit Lions: Smith is not moving up in ADP yet, but the news that Jahvid Best has a six-week date with the PUP list should change that soon. Smith has been running with the first team for a while. Whether he can stay healthy is another (potentially problematic) issue.


Austin Collie, WR, Indianapolis Colts: Rookie Andrew Luck is the quarterback on the move up, and from one preseason game fantasy owners have apparently determined Collie is more valuable now, as well. I happen to agree, at least in theory. Collie's ADP is up 30 spots in a week, and I just hope he can avoid a future concussion.


Vincent Brown, WR, Chargers: Brown remains one of my sleepers, as there is ample opportunity here with Vincent Jackson gone and question marks such as Malcom Floyd and Robert Meachem presumably starting, but he seems to be rising a bit too much due to one preseason performance. He's probably fourth on the depth chart, behind Eddie Royal, as well.


Others: I blogged about the Cedric Benson signing in Green Bay this week, and no player has seen his ADP stock rise as much. … Rumors about free-agent receiver Plaxico Burress meeting with the New England Patriots were enough to interest fantasy owners, but it's worth noting that New England is not a perfect fit for him to be a fantasy star. … Why is Matt Cassel rising so precipitously in ADP? Did he suddenly become good? … Underrated New York Giants tight end Martellus Bennett has moved into Round 15.

Movin' down


Doug Martin, RB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers: This is not surprising, as I suspect prospective Martin owners simply presumed LeGarrette Blount would just go away, but this is and was expected to be a time-share, at least initially. I'll likely break this situation down in greater detail soon, but it seems odd the rookie Martin would drop a round (into the eighth) due to news that isn't really news.


Santana Moss, WR, Washington Redskins: Perhaps people are suddenly realizing he's 33 years old, or are confusing him with Randy Moss, a new San Francisco 49ers weapon also dropping in drafts. I wouldn't call Santana Moss a must-have, or even standard league-worthy, but I don't see what has changed recently. He should start. Only Chad Johnson has fallen more among wide receivers over the past week.


LaMichael James, RB, 49ers: There's nothing wrong with Frank Gore, despite the fact the 49ers seemed to add many running back options to aid him. I wouldn't call James the handcuff here, either, and the fact James was featured as a returner in the preseason opener is indication his duties at running back are likely to be minor, causing owners to avoid him.


Others: Goodbye, Chad Johnson. He's actually third among players falling, behind James Starks (hello, Cedric Benson) and Mikel Leshoure. I think Leshoure will end up a sleeper for sure. … The Chargers' Mathews is falling way too far for my taste, down to pick 38. He's not going to be out that long, people. … The only quarterback notably dropping is Mark Sanchez. It'd be nice if the Jets were featured once in a while, eh? … After a big rush to get Terrell Owens upon his Seattle signing, he's dropping again, but so is Sidney Rice. … The only tight end among the top 50 fallers in the past week is Jacob Tamme, which is not only odd, but wrong.
</offer>
 
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Flag-planted players for 2012

By Christopher Harris | ESPN.com

I've been doing this annual "Flag-Planted Players" column for ESPN for a while now. In fact, it feels like it's been long enough that as we scroll back through the years, we should see references to ancient dance crazes ("… like Los del Rio doing the Macarena, Steve Young should continue boogying through opposing defenses …") and increasingly outdated hairstyles in my author photo.


Nevertheless, here we are again: My annual impersonation of a value-seeking missile. Because I write all of ESPN's player profiles and devise our initial rankings (which are subsequently mulled over and changed by our fantasy sports crew), I can sometimes be guilty of taking too broad a view of the fantasy football field. So when someone asks me for a receiver I really like this year, I might rattle off 20 names. If an interviewer wants a couple of sleepers, I've got a bushel's worth. But that's too easy.

That's why this column initially developed, as a way to cut through vague feelings about a lot of players, and focus on strong feelings about a few players. My task here is to isolate 10 guys I'm most excited about for 2012. Let's be clear: I'm not saying these will be the best players at their respective positions, nor am I saying that you should plan on taking any of them at the tippety-top of your draft. My contention is merely that given the risk each of these men embody (as manifested by the spot where you'll have to select them in your fantasy draft), the rewards are enticing.


So these aren't "sleepers" in the traditional sense. They aren't merely "high-upside" or "safe" plays. And in most cases, they haven't already been fantasy stars in previous seasons. I'm projecting and extrapolating here, looking for value sometimes at the expense of certainty, which means I will absolutely, positively not bat 1.000 with this list. However, in the past this column has been fortunate enough to forecast breakout years for Jamaal Charles, Mike Wallace and Matthew Stafford, among others. And sometimes even when I've missed on a particular player, I've at least alerted you to a potentially valuable situation, as I did last year in assessing the Pittsburgh Steelers WR corps and deciding Emmanuel Sanders was a good late-round pick (the point was valid, but Antonio Brown was the correct player).


Anyway, I can promise that several of the players listed below will wind up on my various fantasy teams. So here goes nothing. Here are my flag-planted players for 2012 in alphabetical order. After each player, I give out a rating of flags to signify how strongly I feel about him, with five being the strongest:


Percy Harvin, WR, Minnesota Vikings: In '11, Harvin finished eighth in fantasy points among WRs, squarely between the redoubtable fantasy tandem of Roddy White and Vincent Jackson, yet in our group receiving ranks for this season, he comes in 20th. I'm at a loss to explain why, because I think the actuarial tables are now actually more in Harvin's favor. Whatever you believe about Adrian Peterson's prospects, it's hard to proclaim they're better than last year's. Christian Ponder doesn't have to worry about Donovan McNabb being ahead of him on the depth chart, presumptive No. 2 wideout Jerome Simpson will begin the year suspended for three games and the Vikings have made noises about having Harvin on the field for more than the 58 percent of their offensive snaps they used him last season. The great thing about owning Harvin is that you'll also get credit for his rushing skills (he had a career-high 52 carries for 345 yards and three scores in '11) and his kickoff-return TDs (he's got at least one in each of his three pro seasons). I'm sympathetic to the argument that Harvin should be inside our top 10 WRs, and he's barely in our top 20? He showed last season that he doesn't need a 1,000-yard receiving campaign to be deadly in fantasy. If you can finagle him to be your No. 2 fantasy wideout, you'll be in great shape. And don't buy the notion that he's a fragile player: Despite well-publicized migraine troubles, Harvin has missed three games in three seasons. Rating: 4.5 flags (out of 5).

Darrius Heyward-Bey, WR, Oakland Raiders: DHB had an objectively weird season in '11, but that doesn't obscure the fact he finally started to "get it" on the field. (He also was arrested for DUI this winter, so whether he "gets it" off the field is an open question.) His route-running and his hands -- previously among the league's worst -- improved, especially late in the season. It's fair to question how much Carson Palmer likes throwing to Heyward-Bey; DHB's serious midseason downturn coincided with Palmer arriving in Oakland, and Heyward-Bey really only picked it up again late after Denarius Moore missed time. Nevertheless, DHB's December was one to behold: 29 catches, 456 yards and three TDs. I do like Moore a bit more than DHB, but I view each guy as a top-35 fantasy WR this season, and whereas Moore's average draft position (ADP) is currently 95, Heyward-Bey's is 131. Both of these Raiders receivers are burners, but Moore gets sent down the field more (in '11 his average yards at the catch was 14.3, fourth highest among qualifying receivers, while DHB's was 10.7, putting him at 27th). So while I think Moore is a better bet to lead this WR corps in fantasy points, you may actually get better week-to-week consistency out of DHB. I think he makes a nice bench stash in any size league. Rating: 2.5 flags (out of 5).


Peyton Hillis, RB, Kansas City Chiefs: Along with Michael Vick, Hillis was a poster child for my All-Overrated team heading into '11; there was no way either guy could exceed the marvels they achieved in '10, and fantasy drafters who took them at the peak of their values were asking for trouble. But the pendulum does swing. Now Vick's ADP is a more reasonable 34, a price at which I think he's a bargain (with obvious health caveats), and Hillis has fallen off the map, all the way down to No. 89. (On average, he was the No. 26 player taken in '11.) Now, that's understandable. He toils for the Chiefs, who have a superstar named Jamaal Charles in their backfield. But three things factor in Hillis' favor for '12. First, J-Mail is coming off a torn ACL. He's looked fine so far, but history teaches us that RBs rarely recoup all their abilities in the first year after ACL surgery. Second, Charles' best season came in '10, when he had 230 carries to Thomas Jones' 245. Third, the Chiefs have quietly assembled what could be a run-mashing offensive line. Right tackle Eric Winston was a key in Arian Foster's emergence in Houston, Jon Asamoah was terrific last year at left guard and new center Rodney Hudson is promising; in addition, KC should have nice line depth, having drafted highly-regarded Jeff Allen (a collegiate tackle converting to guard) in the second round of April's draft and project tackle Donald Stephenson in the third round. The Chiefs know who they are. They're a QB-challenged team that needs to control the clock and play defense. Hillis will be a huge part of that. Yes, of course I'd prefer Charles to Hillis, but Charles' ADP is 24. I say Hillis stays healthier with a less-than-full workload (he was bothered by a hamstring problem for much of '11), that he becomes the goal-line sledgehammer and catches enough passes to keep defenses honest, and he winds up inside the top 30 fantasy RBs this season. Rating: 4 flags (out of 5).


Maurice Jones-Drew, RB, Jacksonville Jaguars: OK, I admit this is totally cheating. MJD has nothing to prove. Still, I'm giving him a full-throated value endorsement: Jones-Drew should be a first-round pick in all formats; I have him as my No. 6 player overall and my No. 4 RB. Last year, we were all legitimately concerned about MJD because he missed the final two games of '10 with a knee injury, and was reportedly still experiencing discomfort last summer. He wound up with an ADP of 13, which was probably still generous, and proceeded to win his first rushing title, finishing No. 3 among fantasy rushers and No. 5 overall in VBD terms. But here we go again. Now it's not MJD's health that's freaking everyone out, but rather his contract holdout. Predictably, the media is offering up words from each side in this financial stalemate, making it seem as though Armageddon is close at hand. But how likely is it, really, that Jones-Drew holds out into Week 1? I view it as unlikely. The Jaguars know that without MJD, they'd have a hard time posting a winning record in the SEC. And Jones-Drew knows that unless he's prepared to hold out until Week 10 and submarine his team's season, his leverage is minimal. Please don't tell me MJD's burst is waning; he averaged 5.8 yards per carry from Dec. 1 forward last year. And don't tell me Rashad Jennings -- who I think is a nice player -- is any kind of substitute for a guy who's failed to exceed nine TDs in a season once in six years, and who's averaged 1,795 yards from scrimmage in the three seasons since Fred Taylor left Jacksonville. Tough talk will continue, and you should ignore it. Nor am I concerned that MJD, a legit workout warrior, will eventually report to the Jags in Chris Johnson shape. Listen, I know I'm not exactly unearthing a hidden gem here, and I promise not to take crazy credit if and when Jones-Drew reports and plays well. But if you're picking at the end of your first round, and the cowards in front of you shy away from MJD, swoop in. Rating: 3 flags (out of 5).

Brandon LaFell, WR, Carolina Panthers: I liked LaFell when he came out of LSU; he has terrific leaping ability, a sturdy frame (6-foot-2, 211 pounds) and enough giddyup to make a play in the open field. Alas, his rookie season ('10) was an utter bust, and heading into last season he looked like Carolina's fourth WR. Then David Gettis tore an ACL and Legedu Naanee underperformed, and this winter suddenly the starting gig alongside Steve Smith was available once again. Smitty will always be the home run threat in the Panthers' offense, with LaFell often relegated to underneath routes, but in the red zone LaFell has a chance to be astounding. A few times last season, he made acrobatic grabs in close quarters that could presage a TD-scoring breakout. Plus, while I'm not at all certain that the Panthers will throw enough to make Cam Newton a 4,000-yard passer again, 3,500 seems possible, and LaFell might be a major part of that. From Week 5 on last season, Newton averaged 6.0 yards at the catch per completion, which was 20th in the NFL; in other words, he's not just a rainbow-launching gunner. There will be a possession element to his game in '12, and LaFell will get a bunch of singled-up looks as defenses pay attention to Smith. Certainly, you shouldn't draft LaFell to be a Week 1 fantasy starter, and just as certainly, for as long as Smith is healthy, LaFell's weekly ceiling is relatively capped. But I see eight-TD upside for this guy. He's another player I think makes an interesting bench acquisition late in drafts. Rating: 2 flags (out of 5).


Stevan Ridley, RB, New England Patriots: First comes the requisite disclaimer about Bill Belichick's running backs. The Pats' coach doesn't have a sentimental bone in his body, and he believes in fairly extreme swings in game plan depending on his opponents. I've tried to discern why he chooses his backfield workloads against certain defenses, and haven't discovered a pattern. But the one reliable fact of the past couple of seasons is that BenJarvus Green-Ellis was Belichick's goal-line back: BJGE had 50 carries inside an opponent's 10 over the past two years, while Tom Brady was second with 14 and Danny Woodhead was third with 10. There's no reason to believe Ridley, who outweighs the Law Firm by 10 pounds, won't inherit that role over the likes of Woodhead and Shane Vereen. While that job by itself wouldn't instantly launch Ridley into the fantasy stratosphere, BJGE did generate 19 TDs out of those 50 carries. It's a start. I can't sell you Ridley as a game-breaker, because he's probably not. He might be slightly more elusive and slightly more powerful than Green-Ellis, but they're in the same neighborhood. Vereen has a legit chance to be the home run hitter here, and as a gadget Woodhead can definitely get in the way of weekly fantasy production. Ridley will have some maddening game-to-game variability. But I feel good about projecting him for 200-plus carries and borderline double-digit TDs. He's knocking on the door of my top 20 fantasy RBs, and I'd select him before Green-Ellis as a Bengal. Rating: 3.5 flags (out of 5).


Philip Rivers, QB, San Diego Chargers: Is this another MJD-style cheat on my part? After all, Rivers has submitted top-five fantasy QB seasons in two of the past four campaigns, and his "terrible" work last year still earned him the No. 9 spot. I'll admit predicting a bounce back for Rivers isn't exactly the boldest pick in the world. And there's residual worry that Rivers' deep ball wasn't its typical pretty self last season, which might've been related to an unpublicized (and much-denied) elbow or shoulder injury. But the dude still threw for 4,624 yards and 27 TDs! His 20 INTs were dreadful, but if that's the bottom of the barrel for Rivers, sign me up. I'm not arguing that you should run out and spend your third-rounder on Rivers. I'm arguing that you don't have to. I would be eminently comfortable waiting to draft my signal-caller, and taking Rivers at the end of the sixth or beginning of the seventh. Will there be a difference between him and, say, Tom Brady, another pure pocket passer? Sure. But is that difference enough to justify a 53-pick gap between them on draft day, as the current ADP would have it? I think not. Those ready to proclaim the Chargers a "rushing offense" need look no further than Ryan Mathews' glass bones. And yes, losing Vincent Jackson hurts, but Rivers will take his shots anyway. Norv Turner is an old-time believer in the vertical passing game, and Malcom Floyd and Robert Meachem have size and can scoot. During the past four seasons, no QB in the NFL has as impressive a combination of average yards at the catch (6.8, tied with Aaron Rodgers for eighth in the league) and average yards after the catch (6.2, tied with Brady for tops in the league). Rating: 3 flags (out of 5).

C.J. Spiller, RB, Buffalo Bills: I don't hate Fred Jackson. Not at all. Jackson is 31 now and coming off a broken leg, but I have confidence that he'll lead the Bills in carries this season, and probably be the team's goal-line back. But I still see big things from Spiller. The only repeat player from last year's Flag list, Spiller was looking like a pretty dumb pick for much of '11, as he averaged 3.1 offensive touches per game before Jackson's injury. But the young man woke up in time for the fantasy playoffs, scoring a TD in four of the season's final six weeks while averaging 18.3 offensive touches and 105.5 yards from scrimmage per game. I believe the Bills will use both of their RBs at the same time quite a lot, including splitting Spiller out wide while Jackson mans the backfield. At this point in his young career, Spiller is a perimeter player with sprinter's speed, and the more frequently Chan Gailey can get him the ball in space, the better this offense is going to look. Gailey knows he's got an arm-challenged QB in Ryan Fitzpatrick and an uninspiring receiving corps after Steve Johnson, so he'll continue to go four- and five-wide as much as any NFL squad (Fitzpatrick had more attempts with four-plus WRs on the field -- 398 -- than any QB in the league last season) and rely on mismatches against Spiller. I set Spiller's floor at 50 catches for '12, which of course means his value is enhanced in point-per-reception leagues. But I find Spiller eminently draftable in all leagues. He's currently my No. 27 RB, and is a passable flex in 12-team leagues. Plus if Jackson gets hurt again, we could be looking at a top-10 kind of season for the game-breaking Spiller. Rating: 3.5 flags (out of 5).


Daniel Thomas, RB, Miami Dolphins: Though Thomas was the fifth RB selected in the '11 draft, he seemed like a fair bet to be the rookie runner with the biggest fantasy impact, simply because the Dolphins didn't appear to have many other options. Then Reggie Bush decided to forget his five relatively mediocre years in New Orleans, and play like a star. But let's not pretend some of Bush's breakout wasn't related to Thomas performing badly. After two standout games as Miami's starter in Weeks 1 and 2, Thomas reinjured a hamstring that had bothered him in the offseason, and was never the same. After those two contests (in which he carried it 41 times for 202 yards), he averaged 3.1 yards per tote. But I'm operating under the assumption that his crummy play was injury-related. The tentative, unpowerful runner who regularly showed up in a Dolphins uniform after Week 2 bore little resemblance to the versatile mauler Thomas was at Kansas State. I admit it's possible that this is simply who Thomas is, and that his collegiate power-back skills won't translate. The good thing is that you no longer have to pay a premium to find out. Thomas' ADP is currently 132, which makes him worth a late-round flier (he's No. 89 overall on my list). If this guy starts wielding his 230 pounds like a hammer, he can still take over that Dolphins starting gig. After all, Bush isn't traditionally the picture of health himself, plus he's entering a contract season for a rebuilding team that doesn't figure to break the bank to re-sign him. Because Thomas' value pendulum has swung so far in the other direction (his ADP was 84 last year), he's now a sleeper worth taking. Rating: 2.5 flags (out of 5).


Titus Young, WR, Detroit Lions: I believe I'm saving my favorite for last. I heart Titus Young. Granted, he doesn't have the size typically associated with a great fantasy receiver: He's 5-11 and 174 pounds. Plus there's this guy they call Megatron who plays the same position for the Lions. But I say there's more than enough WR work for two guys to become studs in Detroit; after all, Matthew Stafford led the NFL with 663 attempts last season, including a league-high 473 attempts that traveled 10 yards or fewer in the air. That last fact is significant for Young: His quickness makes him deadly in space, and he can line up all over a formation to find mismatches on shorter routes. Plus while Young isn't an elite burner (a 4.43 40 is solid, of course), his average yards at the catch was a strong 9.6 (36th among qualified WRs) while teammate Nate Burleson's was 4.5 (80th out of 81 qualified WRs). Yes, Burleson is still around, but given their respective skills I find it hard to believe that Burleson won't be the slot guy much of time, while Young shifts outside. The fact is, of course, that the Lions go three-wide more than any team in the league (in '11, Stafford had 553 attempts with three-plus receivers on the field, tops in the NFL), so regardless of his position on the depth chart, Young will be out there a ton. He has maturity questions (he found his coaches' doghouse during his rookie year because of a stupid personal foul, and got into a fight with Louis Delmas during this spring's minicamp), plus the best he can do is be fed second after Calvin Johnson. But a 60-catch, 900-yard, eight-TD season is easily in this guy's range. That kind of year would put him well within the top 20 fantasy WRs. Rating: 5 flags (out of 5).
 
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Underrated 2012 fantasy RBs

Matt Forte, Chris Johnson among fantasy RBs being drafted too low

y KC Joyner | ESPN Insider

running back values are decreasing.


The most recent average draft position charts show this to be the case. Running backs do comprise three of the first five picks in most draft rooms, but they also constitute only seven of the first 19 picks.
That would make it seem like valued running backs will be plentiful this year, but the truth is the draft composition has to do as much with the high volume of question marks among top-flight ball carriers as any other factor.


This means finding draft-day values among fantasy running backs is still a difficult proposition that requires playing the percentages.


Here are six running backs whose ADP and projected performance combine to put percentages in their favor and make them undervalued fantasy prospects.

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Chris Johnson, Tennessee Titans
ADP: 9.9 (ranked fifth among running backs)


Johnson is a candidate to be the best running back in fantasy football this year yet is currently being selected with the 10th pick in most draft rooms.


Some of that has to do with his struggles during the 2011 campaign, but as noted in this recent Insider article, a lot of those woes had to do with the early-season transition the Titans' offense was going through under new offensive coordinator Chris Palmer. Once the transition started to take hold, Johnson got back to his formerly dominant production levels.
<offer>Johnson's draft value may also be negatively impacted by his underwhelming preseason performance, but in this case Johnson may just be pulling a Franco Harris.


Harris, a Hall of Famer who ended his career as the second-leading rusher in NFL history, often said that had his place on the Steelers' roster been on the line during the preseason he wouldn't have made the cut based on his performance. Harris wanted to conserve his efforts for the regular season and postseason, and Johnson is almost certainly taking that same tack.


For those needing more statistical proof to back this up, take a look at Johnson's game-by-game rushing totals in the 2009 preseason that preceded his 2,000-yard campaign.


Week 1 -- Six rushes, 17 yards
Week 2 -- Seven rushes, 7 yards
Week 3 -- Two rushes, 3 yards
Week 4 -- Seven rushes, 27 yards
Week 5 -- Three rushes, 23 yards


Total -- 25 rushes, 77 yards, 3.1 yards per carry


Johnson laid some statistical eggs in those contests, but in the end it didn't negatively impact his regular-season totals. This preseason will be no different, so don't undervalue Johnson based on a less than stellar showing in August.

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Matt Forte, Chicago Bears
ADP: 15.2 (ranked sixth)


Forte has a history of being as productive as Adrian Peterson, but his draft value has been stuck at or around the No. 17 mark for a few weeks now.


There is no reason this should be occurring.


Forte is healthy, his contract status is cleared up and his 10.7 total in the good blocking yards per attempt category (GBYPA, which measures productivity on plays with good blocking) ranked second in the league last year.


Forte also has the upside that comes with a proven ability to post superb fantasy point totals when given subpar blocking (Chicago finished last in the NFL in the good blocking rate metric in 2011), so his downside is much lower than other comparable backs. He's a first-round-caliber talent who can be acquired with a second-round pick in most leagues.

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Michael Turner, Atlanta Falcons
ADP: 34.2 (ranked 14th)


The general skinny on Turner is that he has lost a step and will have reduced fantasy value because his workload volume will decrease.


The metrics would beg to differ on the former, as Turner's 8.9 GBYPA last year was the highest mark in that category among running backs with at least 100 good blocking rush attempts.
</offer>Regarding his workload, the Falcons' higher-ups have repeatedly expressed their goal of keeping Turner under 300 carries this year. However, Turner had only 301 carries last year and still managed to end up tied for fifth in running back fantasy points. Even if that total drops to 275 carries, the combination of Turner's ability to break off big gainers, his goal-line workload and a very favorable run defense schedule (my draft guide says the Falcons have the most favorable run defense schedule of any team in the league) should give him an excellent chance of equaling last year's fantasy point ranking.

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Frank Gore, San Francisco 49ers
ADP: 36.0 (ranked 17th)


Gore's resume is chock-full of positives. Last year was the first season since 2006 that he played in all 16 games. That led to Gore tallying a combined 314 rushes and pass targets, a total that ranked ninth in the league. His productivity didn't see a drop-off with the increased workload, as his 8.6 GBYPA mark ranked 13th overall and was fourth among running backs with at least 100 good blocking rush attempts. The Niners' aerial attack will be much improved with the additions of Mario Manningham, Randy Moss and A.J. Jenkins and thus could keep teams from concentrating on stopping San Francisco's ground attack. All this means Gore should be rated higher than the No. 17 running back.
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Peyton Hillis, Kansas City Chiefs
ADP: 90.4 (ranked 34th)


Fantasy owners are understandably down on Hillis because of his abysmal post-"Madden" cover season that saw him rank dead-last in the GBYPA metric (5.7), but a change of scenery and getting to once again work with offensive coordinator Brian Daboll (who was the playcaller in Hillis' breakout year) should work to get him back to a much higher production plane.


Even with that increase, the key to judging Hillis' value is gauging the number of carries he is likely to get in this offense.


Let's start this process by noting that Daboll's offenses have averaged 460 rush attempts in his three years of calling plays.


In his signature 2010 campaign, Jamaal Charles tallied 230 rush attempts. Since he is coming off of an ACL injury and isn't built to be a bell cow runner under the best of circumstances, it stands to reason that he will likely post somewhere in the neighborhood of 200-225 rush attempts in a best-case scenario.


That should leave Hillis somewhere around 200-250 rush attempts behind an upgraded Kansas City offensive line, and many of those attempts could be of the goal-line variety (Hillis had eight touchdowns in 18 inside-the-10 rushes for Cleveland in 2010). That may not vault him back to his 2010 fantasy point level, but it should give him higher fantasy value than where he is currently being drafted.

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LeGarrette Blount, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
ADP: 118.7 (ranked 41st)


Blount's fantasy stock took a hit when his 2011 season didn't meet up to the expectations brought about by his superb 2010 season. That stock fell even further when the Buccaneers drafted Boise State running back Doug Martin in the first round of the 2012 NFL draft.


While those factors certainly justify some type of draft value decline, they shouldn't result in a fall of this caliber.


For starters, Martin may not be all he is cut out to be. His 4.9 ypc ranked 25th out of the 47 players in college football who posted at least 200 rush attempts last year, and he tallied that total against a relatively weak schedule.


Blount's drop-off was also not as bad as it has been made out to be. In the first four games last year (the contests before he got hurt), Blount posted two 19-point fantasy games and a nine-point game. He also racked up three double-digit point totals in the first six weeks after returning from injury.


Put these factors together with Blount's preseason efforts to turn things around and it means he still has RB3 potential.
 
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Choosing between Falcons WRs

Julio Jones the risk/reward pick, Roddy White as steady as they come

By James Quintong | ESPN.com

Which Falcons receiver will have the better fantasy season: Roddy White or Julio Jones?

The Atlanta Falcons are one of three teams with two wide receivers being taken in the top 15 in ESPN live drafts so far this summer. And for good reason, as they boast a steady, super-productive veteran in Roddy White, as well as a youngster coming off a top-20 rookie campaign (despite missing three games due to injury) in Julio Jones.


However, when it comes to figuring out which of these receivers should be taken first, it probably depends on how much risk you're willing to take and whether you prefer established production or potential upside.

White has put up five consecutive seasons with at least 1,100 yards and is coming off his second straight 100-reception season. Even with Jones brought in to bolster the receiving corps, White still led the NFL with 180 targets in 2011. He's also been very durable, never missing a game in seven NFL seasons. There's something to be said about reliability and security, and that's what White brings to the table.


The veteran White also seemed to pick up the stats as the season went on, as he had four 100-yard games, three 10-reception outings and five TDs in the final seven games of the season, compared to just one 100-yard game and three TDs before that. So it doesn't appear that he's really slowing down at age 30.


Meanwhile, Jones is just 23 and appears to have loads of potential. Remember, the Falcons traded a ton of draft picks to move up to draft him early in the first round last year. He finished his rookie season with 54 catches for 959 receiving yards (a whopping 17.8 yards per catch). He had as many TD catches (eight) and 100-yard games (five) as White, despite a hamstring injury that forced him to miss three games and limited him in a few other games as well.


Jones also finished the 2011 season with a flourish, putting up 393 yards and six touchdowns over the final four games of the season, helping his owners during the fantasy playoff stretch run.


There's still plenty of room for Jones to grow. As he told the Atlanta Journal-Constitution recently, he considered himself "maybe five or six" during his rookie season, but now "I'm a 10." It appeared he was at that 10 level early in the Falcons' preseason opener, when he had six catches for 109 yards a TD. That's a big reason Jones has moved up even further in many drafts in recent weeks.


Overall, Jones is fully healthy, has developed a solid bond with quarterback Matt Ryan and has a chance to be used even more under new offensive coordinator Dirk Koetter, as that first game may have demonstrated. The upside is definitely there.

But Jones still has a bit of downside. There were game-to-game consistency issues, partly because of his injuries. In addition to the three games he missed with injuries, he had three other weeks where he scored two or fewer points (ESPN standard scoring), compared to just one for White. And while Jones had as many TDs as White, all but one were outside the 20. That's great for his big-play capabilities, but can you count on long touchdowns on a week-to-week basis? Interestingly, all but one of White's eight TDs were inside the 20, which seems to show how the Falcons liked to use both guys last season.


As for White's downside, remember that he did lead the league in dropped passes, but the huge volume of targets somewhat compensated for it. There's a pretty good chance White is not getting 175-180 targets again, not with Jones ready to become even more involved in the offense. So even if White does improve on the drops (which he did by the end of last season), will he still get as many chances to do something with the ball? Remember, this potential decrease in receptions could also affect his value in PPR leagues, where he has been very desirable in recent seasons. And if he's getting fewer receptions, what will the yardage be, especially given that he's averaged just 12.8 yards per catch over the past three seasons? Granted, he's caught exactly 300 passes during that time, but will he come close to 100 catches again this season?


White is still going to be a dangerous weapon and a big part of the Falcons' offense, but he may be passing the baton to Jones as the top wideout. At the very least, there could be more of a 1A and 1B situation in play, with White as the steady option who'll be more in the mix for shorter TDs and moving the chains, while Jones serves as the home-run threat but with the capacity to do a lot more.


Jones' ceiling appears to be higher than White's (which still isn't too bad), but the floor might be a bit lower as well. I'm taking the risk on Jones' upside and growth in his second year slightly over White's consistency that seems destined for a slight decline.
 
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Flag-planted players for 2012

By Christopher Harris | ESPN.com

I've been doing this annual "Flag-Planted Players" column for ESPN for a while now. In fact, it feels like it's been long enough that as we scroll back through the years, we should see references to ancient dance crazes ("… like Los del Rio doing the Macarena, Steve Young should continue boogying through opposing defenses …") and increasingly outdated hairstyles in my author photo.


Nevertheless, here we are again: My annual impersonation of a value-seeking missile. Because I write all of ESPN's player profiles and devise our initial rankings (which are subsequently mulled over and changed by our fantasy sports crew), I can sometimes be guilty of taking too broad a view of the fantasy football field. So when someone asks me for a receiver I really like this year, I might rattle off 20 names. If an interviewer wants a couple of sleepers, I've got a bushel's worth. But that's too easy.

That's why this column initially developed, as a way to cut through vague feelings about a lot of players, and focus on strong feelings about a few players. My task here is to isolate 10 guys I'm most excited about for 2012. Let's be clear: I'm not saying these will be the best players at their respective positions, nor am I saying that you should plan on taking any of them at the tippety-top of your draft. My contention is merely that given the risk each of these men embody (as manifested by the spot where you'll have to select them in your fantasy draft), the rewards are enticing.


So these aren't "sleepers" in the traditional sense. They aren't merely "high-upside" or "safe" plays. And in most cases, they haven't already been fantasy stars in previous seasons. I'm projecting and extrapolating here, looking for value sometimes at the expense of certainty, which means I will absolutely, positively not bat 1.000 with this list. However, in the past this column has been fortunate enough to forecast breakout years for Jamaal Charles, Mike Wallace and Matthew Stafford, among others. And sometimes even when I've missed on a particular player, I've at least alerted you to a potentially valuable situation, as I did last year in assessing the Pittsburgh Steelers WR corps and deciding Emmanuel Sanders was a good late-round pick (the point was valid, but Antonio Brown was the correct player).


Anyway, I can promise that several of the players listed below will wind up on my various fantasy teams. So here goes nothing. Here are my flag-planted players for 2012 in alphabetical order. After each player, I give out a rating of flags to signify how strongly I feel about him, with five being the strongest:


Percy Harvin, WR, Minnesota Vikings: In '11, Harvin finished eighth in fantasy points among WRs, squarely between the redoubtable fantasy tandem of Roddy White and Vincent Jackson, yet in our group receiving ranks for this season, he comes in 20th. I'm at a loss to explain why, because I think the actuarial tables are now actually more in Harvin's favor. Whatever you believe about Adrian Peterson's prospects, it's hard to proclaim they're better than last year's. Christian Ponder doesn't have to worry about Donovan McNabb being ahead of him on the depth chart, presumptive No. 2 wideout Jerome Simpson will begin the year suspended for three games and the Vikings have made noises about having Harvin on the field for more than the 58 percent of their offensive snaps they used him last season. The great thing about owning Harvin is that you'll also get credit for his rushing skills (he had a career-high 52 carries for 345 yards and three scores in '11) and his kickoff-return TDs (he's got at least one in each of his three pro seasons). I'm sympathetic to the argument that Harvin should be inside our top 10 WRs, and he's barely in our top 20? He showed last season that he doesn't need a 1,000-yard receiving campaign to be deadly in fantasy. If you can finagle him to be your No. 2 fantasy wideout, you'll be in great shape. And don't buy the notion that he's a fragile player: Despite well-publicized migraine troubles, Harvin has missed three games in three seasons. Rating: 4.5 flags (out of 5).

Darrius Heyward-Bey, WR, Oakland Raiders: DHB had an objectively weird season in '11, but that doesn't obscure the fact he finally started to "get it" on the field. (He also was arrested for DUI this winter, so whether he "gets it" off the field is an open question.) His route-running and his hands -- previously among the league's worst -- improved, especially late in the season. It's fair to question how much Carson Palmer likes throwing to Heyward-Bey; DHB's serious midseason downturn coincided with Palmer arriving in Oakland, and Heyward-Bey really only picked it up again late after Denarius Moore missed time. Nevertheless, DHB's December was one to behold: 29 catches, 456 yards and three TDs. I do like Moore a bit more than DHB, but I view each guy as a top-35 fantasy WR this season, and whereas Moore's average draft position (ADP) is currently 95, Heyward-Bey's is 131. Both of these Raiders receivers are burners, but Moore gets sent down the field more (in '11 his average yards at the catch was 14.3, fourth highest among qualifying receivers, while DHB's was 10.7, putting him at 27th). So while I think Moore is a better bet to lead this WR corps in fantasy points, you may actually get better week-to-week consistency out of DHB. I think he makes a nice bench stash in any size league. Rating: 2.5 flags (out of 5).


Peyton Hillis, RB, Kansas City Chiefs: Along with Michael Vick, Hillis was a poster child for my All-Overrated team heading into '11; there was no way either guy could exceed the marvels they achieved in '10, and fantasy drafters who took them at the peak of their values were asking for trouble. But the pendulum does swing. Now Vick's ADP is a more reasonable 34, a price at which I think he's a bargain (with obvious health caveats), and Hillis has fallen off the map, all the way down to No. 89. (On average, he was the No. 26 player taken in '11.) Now, that's understandable. He toils for the Chiefs, who have a superstar named Jamaal Charles in their backfield. But three things factor in Hillis' favor for '12. First, J-Mail is coming off a torn ACL. He's looked fine so far, but history teaches us that RBs rarely recoup all their abilities in the first year after ACL surgery. Second, Charles' best season came in '10, when he had 230 carries to Thomas Jones' 245. Third, the Chiefs have quietly assembled what could be a run-mashing offensive line. Right tackle Eric Winston was a key in Arian Foster's emergence in Houston, Jon Asamoah was terrific last year at left guard and new center Rodney Hudson is promising; in addition, KC should have nice line depth, having drafted highly-regarded Jeff Allen (a collegiate tackle converting to guard) in the second round of April's draft and project tackle Donald Stephenson in the third round. The Chiefs know who they are. They're a QB-challenged team that needs to control the clock and play defense. Hillis will be a huge part of that. Yes, of course I'd prefer Charles to Hillis, but Charles' ADP is 24. I say Hillis stays healthier with a less-than-full workload (he was bothered by a hamstring problem for much of '11), that he becomes the goal-line sledgehammer and catches enough passes to keep defenses honest, and he winds up inside the top 30 fantasy RBs this season. Rating: 4 flags (out of 5).


Maurice Jones-Drew, RB, Jacksonville Jaguars: OK, I admit this is totally cheating. MJD has nothing to prove. Still, I'm giving him a full-throated value endorsement: Jones-Drew should be a first-round pick in all formats; I have him as my No. 6 player overall and my No. 4 RB. Last year, we were all legitimately concerned about MJD because he missed the final two games of '10 with a knee injury, and was reportedly still experiencing discomfort last summer. He wound up with an ADP of 13, which was probably still generous, and proceeded to win his first rushing title, finishing No. 3 among fantasy rushers and No. 5 overall in VBD terms. But here we go again. Now it's not MJD's health that's freaking everyone out, but rather his contract holdout. Predictably, the media is offering up words from each side in this financial stalemate, making it seem as though Armageddon is close at hand. But how likely is it, really, that Jones-Drew holds out into Week 1? I view it as unlikely. The Jaguars know that without MJD, they'd have a hard time posting a winning record in the SEC. And Jones-Drew knows that unless he's prepared to hold out until Week 10 and submarine his team's season, his leverage is minimal. Please don't tell me MJD's burst is waning; he averaged 5.8 yards per carry from Dec. 1 forward last year. And don't tell me Rashad Jennings -- who I think is a nice player -- is any kind of substitute for a guy who's failed to exceed nine TDs in a season once in six years, and who's averaged 1,795 yards from scrimmage in the three seasons since Fred Taylor left Jacksonville. Tough talk will continue, and you should ignore it. Nor am I concerned that MJD, a legit workout warrior, will eventually report to the Jags in Chris Johnson shape. Listen, I know I'm not exactly unearthing a hidden gem here, and I promise not to take crazy credit if and when Jones-Drew reports and plays well. But if you're picking at the end of your first round, and the cowards in front of you shy away from MJD, swoop in. Rating: 3 flags (out of 5).

Brandon LaFell, WR, Carolina Panthers: I liked LaFell when he came out of LSU; he has terrific leaping ability, a sturdy frame (6-foot-2, 211 pounds) and enough giddyup to make a play in the open field. Alas, his rookie season ('10) was an utter bust, and heading into last season he looked like Carolina's fourth WR. Then David Gettis tore an ACL and Legedu Naanee underperformed, and this winter suddenly the starting gig alongside Steve Smith was available once again. Smitty will always be the home run threat in the Panthers' offense, with LaFell often relegated to underneath routes, but in the red zone LaFell has a chance to be astounding. A few times last season, he made acrobatic grabs in close quarters that could presage a TD-scoring breakout. Plus, while I'm not at all certain that the Panthers will throw enough to make Cam Newton a 4,000-yard passer again, 3,500 seems possible, and LaFell might be a major part of that. From Week 5 on last season, Newton averaged 6.0 yards at the catch per completion, which was 20th in the NFL; in other words, he's not just a rainbow-launching gunner. There will be a possession element to his game in '12, and LaFell will get a bunch of singled-up looks as defenses pay attention to Smith. Certainly, you shouldn't draft LaFell to be a Week 1 fantasy starter, and just as certainly, for as long as Smith is healthy, LaFell's weekly ceiling is relatively capped. But I see eight-TD upside for this guy. He's another player I think makes an interesting bench acquisition late in drafts. Rating: 2 flags (out of 5).


Stevan Ridley, RB, New England Patriots: First comes the requisite disclaimer about Bill Belichick's running backs. The Pats' coach doesn't have a sentimental bone in his body, and he believes in fairly extreme swings in game plan depending on his opponents. I've tried to discern why he chooses his backfield workloads against certain defenses, and haven't discovered a pattern. But the one reliable fact of the past couple of seasons is that BenJarvus Green-Ellis was Belichick's goal-line back: BJGE had 50 carries inside an opponent's 10 over the past two years, while Tom Brady was second with 14 and Danny Woodhead was third with 10. There's no reason to believe Ridley, who outweighs the Law Firm by 10 pounds, won't inherit that role over the likes of Woodhead and Shane Vereen. While that job by itself wouldn't instantly launch Ridley into the fantasy stratosphere, BJGE did generate 19 TDs out of those 50 carries. It's a start. I can't sell you Ridley as a game-breaker, because he's probably not. He might be slightly more elusive and slightly more powerful than Green-Ellis, but they're in the same neighborhood. Vereen has a legit chance to be the home run hitter here, and as a gadget Woodhead can definitely get in the way of weekly fantasy production. Ridley will have some maddening game-to-game variability. But I feel good about projecting him for 200-plus carries and borderline double-digit TDs. He's knocking on the door of my top 20 fantasy RBs, and I'd select him before Green-Ellis as a Bengal. Rating: 3.5 flags (out of 5).


Philip Rivers, QB, San Diego Chargers: Is this another MJD-style cheat on my part? After all, Rivers has submitted top-five fantasy QB seasons in two of the past four campaigns, and his "terrible" work last year still earned him the No. 9 spot. I'll admit predicting a bounce back for Rivers isn't exactly the boldest pick in the world. And there's residual worry that Rivers' deep ball wasn't its typical pretty self last season, which might've been related to an unpublicized (and much-denied) elbow or shoulder injury. But the dude still threw for 4,624 yards and 27 TDs! His 20 INTs were dreadful, but if that's the bottom of the barrel for Rivers, sign me up. I'm not arguing that you should run out and spend your third-rounder on Rivers. I'm arguing that you don't have to. I would be eminently comfortable waiting to draft my signal-caller, and taking Rivers at the end of the sixth or beginning of the seventh. Will there be a difference between him and, say, Tom Brady, another pure pocket passer? Sure. But is that difference enough to justify a 53-pick gap between them on draft day, as the current ADP would have it? I think not. Those ready to proclaim the Chargers a "rushing offense" need look no further than Ryan Mathews' glass bones. And yes, losing Vincent Jackson hurts, but Rivers will take his shots anyway. Norv Turner is an old-time believer in the vertical passing game, and Malcom Floyd and Robert Meachem have size and can scoot. During the past four seasons, no QB in the NFL has as impressive a combination of average yards at the catch (6.8, tied with Aaron Rodgers for eighth in the league) and average yards after the catch (6.2, tied with Brady for tops in the league). Rating: 3 flags (out of 5).

C.J. Spiller, RB, Buffalo Bills: I don't hate Fred Jackson. Not at all. Jackson is 31 now and coming off a broken leg, but I have confidence that he'll lead the Bills in carries this season, and probably be the team's goal-line back. But I still see big things from Spiller. The only repeat player from last year's Flag list, Spiller was looking like a pretty dumb pick for much of '11, as he averaged 3.1 offensive touches per game before Jackson's injury. But the young man woke up in time for the fantasy playoffs, scoring a TD in four of the season's final six weeks while averaging 18.3 offensive touches and 105.5 yards from scrimmage per game. I believe the Bills will use both of their RBs at the same time quite a lot, including splitting Spiller out wide while Jackson mans the backfield. At this point in his young career, Spiller is a perimeter player with sprinter's speed, and the more frequently Chan Gailey can get him the ball in space, the better this offense is going to look. Gailey knows he's got an arm-challenged QB in Ryan Fitzpatrick and an uninspiring receiving corps after Steve Johnson, so he'll continue to go four- and five-wide as much as any NFL squad (Fitzpatrick had more attempts with four-plus WRs on the field -- 398 -- than any QB in the league last season) and rely on mismatches against Spiller. I set Spiller's floor at 50 catches for '12, which of course means his value is enhanced in point-per-reception leagues. But I find Spiller eminently draftable in all leagues. He's currently my No. 27 RB, and is a passable flex in 12-team leagues. Plus if Jackson gets hurt again, we could be looking at a top-10 kind of season for the game-breaking Spiller. Rating: 3.5 flags (out of 5).


Daniel Thomas, RB, Miami Dolphins: Though Thomas was the fifth RB selected in the '11 draft, he seemed like a fair bet to be the rookie runner with the biggest fantasy impact, simply because the Dolphins didn't appear to have many other options. Then Reggie Bush decided to forget his five relatively mediocre years in New Orleans, and play like a star. But let's not pretend some of Bush's breakout wasn't related to Thomas performing badly. After two standout games as Miami's starter in Weeks 1 and 2, Thomas reinjured a hamstring that had bothered him in the offseason, and was never the same. After those two contests (in which he carried it 41 times for 202 yards), he averaged 3.1 yards per tote. But I'm operating under the assumption that his crummy play was injury-related. The tentative, unpowerful runner who regularly showed up in a Dolphins uniform after Week 2 bore little resemblance to the versatile mauler Thomas was at Kansas State. I admit it's possible that this is simply who Thomas is, and that his collegiate power-back skills won't translate. The good thing is that you no longer have to pay a premium to find out. Thomas' ADP is currently 132, which makes him worth a late-round flier (he's No. 89 overall on my list). If this guy starts wielding his 230 pounds like a hammer, he can still take over that Dolphins starting gig. After all, Bush isn't traditionally the picture of health himself, plus he's entering a contract season for a rebuilding team that doesn't figure to break the bank to re-sign him. Because Thomas' value pendulum has swung so far in the other direction (his ADP was 84 last year), he's now a sleeper worth taking. Rating: 2.5 flags (out of 5).


Titus Young, WR, Detroit Lions: I believe I'm saving my favorite for last. I heart Titus Young. Granted, he doesn't have the size typically associated with a great fantasy receiver: He's 5-11 and 174 pounds. Plus there's this guy they call Megatron who plays the same position for the Lions. But I say there's more than enough WR work for two guys to become studs in Detroit; after all, Matthew Stafford led the NFL with 663 attempts last season, including a league-high 473 attempts that traveled 10 yards or fewer in the air. That last fact is significant for Young: His quickness makes him deadly in space, and he can line up all over a formation to find mismatches on shorter routes. Plus while Young isn't an elite burner (a 4.43 40 is solid, of course), his average yards at the catch was a strong 9.6 (36th among qualified WRs) while teammate Nate Burleson's was 4.5 (80th out of 81 qualified WRs). Yes, Burleson is still around, but given their respective skills I find it hard to believe that Burleson won't be the slot guy much of time, while Young shifts outside. The fact is, of course, that the Lions go three-wide more than any team in the league (in '11, Stafford had 553 attempts with three-plus receivers on the field, tops in the NFL), so regardless of his position on the depth chart, Young will be out there a ton. He has maturity questions (he found his coaches' doghouse during his rookie year because of a stupid personal foul, and got into a fight with Louis Delmas during this spring's minicamp), plus the best he can do is be fed second after Calvin Johnson. But a 60-catch, 900-yard, eight-TD season is easily in this guy's range. That kind of year would put him well within the top 20 fantasy WRs. Rating: 5 flags (out of 5).
 
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RB handcuffs: Which ones interest me?
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Eric Karabell

Simply put, you won't see me spending much time worrying about the novel fantasy football practice of "handcuffing" backup running backs to my starters. I've just seen too many times in which the oh so popular next guy in line cannot handle the job and quickly disappoints. This is not the case with Houston Texans running back Ben Tate, because we saw during the 2011 season how electric he can be should something again befall top overall pick Arian Foster, but past Tate, it's a largely unexciting crew of backup running backs.

<offer>It's worth noting that because so many NFL teams have shared duties at running back to begin with, the mere notion of handcuffs is lessened more than in previous seasons. Just two running backs had more than 300 carries last season; seven did the year prior, and as recently as 2006, there were 10 players with this high a workload. Things are different now. Injuries run rampant, and ESPN Fantasy projects only 11 running backs to top 250 attempts. It seems more vital to me to draft a running back that doesn't need an injury or poor performance by someone else in order to get his own opportunity.</offer>


Tate's different because Houston runs so much, and figures to again, and he's really good. Tate flirted with 1,000 rushing yards last season and averaged 5.4 yards per carry, so he really fits the definition of handcuff in that top-10 status possibly awaits him if opportunity knocks. If Maurice Jones-Drew foolishly opts to sit out the season, I seriously doubt backup Rashad Jennings will become a fantasy superstar. That doesn't mean I'll ignore Jennings late in drafts, but the fact is I'm interested in him and Tate regardless of my starting running backs. I'm certainly more inclined to reach on Tate in the sixth round if I own Foster, which I've shown in recent mock drafts, but in general I'm drafting best available running backs by then.


If you've been blessed with the first overall pick and wisely chose Foster, there's no obligation to later secure Tate to the roster, though I'd recommend it. Foster is a large investment. But if you have Jones-Drew, Ray Rice, LeSean McCoy or Chris Johnson in tow, I don't feel the same about their fill-ins. Perhaps Dion Lewis could be an immediate star in Philly, but I'm largely skeptical.


In many other NFL places, true handcuff situations do not exist. For example, I think both Jamaal Charles and Peyton Hillis are suitable top-25 running back picks. I wouldn't call the logjam in Carolina a natural handcuff either, with Jonathan Stewart, DeAngelo Williams, fullback Mike Tolbert and, of course, their starting quarterback all pining for attention. The New Orleans Saints likely won't give anyone enough carries in a traditional running back role. And there are time-shares but not handcuff situations pending in Tampa Bay, Washington and perhaps Detroit and Arizona.


Anyway, here are five interesting handcuff situations, and how I view them. You might argue I should be discussing the Chiefs or 20 other teams here, but again, I'm looking for backups who could really succeed if given the chance for significant touches. I expect to see many "what about this team?" posts in Conversation. Go for it!


Five notable handcuff situations




Houston Texans: If Foster blew out his knee this preseason, and of course nobody wants that, I really would move Tate into the first round. Not first overall, but right after Chris Johnson, who I currently rank No. 6. Not only do I trust Tate, but running back is a mess this season. I mean, I don't trust DeMarco Murray, yet he's in my top 10 running backs by default.


Minnesota Vikings: If Adrian Peterson were to have a major setback, I don't see why Toby Gerhart couldn't be a borderline top-10 running back. After all, Gerhart finally got his chance to run in Week 12 of the 2011 season and rattled off five consecutive double-digit fantasy performances, and Peterson missed only three of those contests.

Buffalo Bills: As with Gerhart, the final month-plus in which C.J. Spiller was the main man in Buffalo proved quite impressive, especially his 28-point fantasy effort in Week 15. Fred Jackson should be healed from a broken leg and Spiller should take on a larger role as a receiver out of the backfield, but if the 31-year-old Jackson breaks down, Spiller will be in major demand.


St. Louis Rams: One reason I have little interest in Philly's Lewis or whatever the Ravens do after Rice is that those starters have proven durable. But Steven Jackson is an older fellow now, and the Rams likely will give rookie Isaiah Pead plenty of third-down chances at the least.


Atlanta Falcons: Well, perhaps this is the year Michael Turner falls off the cliff. I don't buy it, which is why last season's No. 5 running back shows up in my third round. Still, expect Jacquizz Rodgers to be more of a factor this season. I didn't say I'd draft him, but if Turner gets hurt, he'll matter.


Who else: Banking on rookies is always dangerous, but Ahmad Bradshaw has foot issues and backup David Wilson is a track star. … I kind of like Willis McGahee in Denver, but rookie Ronnie Hillman did score quite a few touchdowns in college. … Talk to me in two weeks if Jones-Drew remains away from the Jaguars, but Rashad Jennings missed all of 2011, and it seems to me Jones-Drew doesn't share many touches. … Matt Forte was really good last season. So was Michael Bush at times. The former Raider should see goal-line work in Chicago, but I don't think Forte is too risky. … DeMarco Murray has started seven games, but we've seen enough of Felix Jones to know he's not special. … I blogged about Mike Goodson and Taiwan Jones in Oakland recently, and Darren McFadden can't stay healthy, but I also half expect Carson Palmer to simply throw 45 times per game if Run-DMC is out. … Ryan Mathews is already hurt in San Diego, but good luck with Ronnie Brown. He's no longer anything special.
 
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Sleeper Vincent Brown breaks ankle
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Eric Karabell

The second full weekend of preseason NFL action looked much like the first, with most of the top fantasy options getting precious little playing time, but injuries emerging as the main story. Just like the preceding weekend, the San Diego Chargers fell victim, but unlike running back Ryan Mathews, who could still return by the first regular-season game, it will be a while before anyone sees sleeper wide receiver Vincent Brown helping a fantasy lineup.


Brown broke his left ankle on an 18-yard touchdown catch Saturday night, and is expected to miss at least eight weeks. A 15th-rounder in ESPN average live drafts, Brown's stock was rising over the past week, as he had 81 receiving yards and a touchdown a week earlier. In fact, as of Sunday night only Austin Collie of the Indianapolis Colts had seen his seven-day snake draft ADP rise more among wide receivers; Collie has been held back by concussions in the past and unfortunately he left Sunday's game against the Pittsburgh Steelers after a particularly high hit. Stay tuned.

As for Brown, his loss erases a potential sleeper from the draft pool, but certainly remember the name if you've got the bench space to add a receiver in October. Brown should return and he's an obvious talent in the right spot for opportunity. Don't presume that chance won't still be there in two months. The Chargers lost Vincent Jackson to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and starting wide receivers Robert Meachem and Malcom Floyd have each had issues staying healthy, as has tight end Antonio Gates. The Chargers also have Eddie Royal, but he's been dealing with a groin injury.


Quarterback Philip Rivers isn't a top-5 option at the position, and some might be concerned about his weapons, but don't downgrade him in the rankings yet, despite two more interceptions over the weekend, which was certainly a theme during the 2011 season. Meachem and Floyd, when healthy, have been productive deep threats and Gates claims he hasn't been this healthy in years. For now cross Brown off your draft lists but don't lose faith in other Chargers, unless more injuries just keep piling up.


Here is other news from a busy preseason weekend:

• Want some good news? Houston Texans wide receiver Andre Johnson caught two passes in Saturday's win over the San Francisco 49ers, including a 43-yarder in which he outjumped two defenders. None of this ensures Johnson will play all 16 games this season, or rationalize his status as a second-round draft pick, but at least he's playing. Johnson is going 12th in ADP, third among wide receivers.


• The 49ers saw a pair of running backs leave prematurely from the Texans game with leg injuries. Veteran Brandon Jacobs, whose ADP is one pick ahead of Vincent Brown's, needed an MRI on his left knee and the results were deemed relatively positive, though his availability remains in question. Rookie LaMichael James sprained his left ankle and was carted from the field, but the team believes he avoided serious injury, as well. The 49ers still have a healthy, productive Frank Gore, and for those wondering about his handcuff, we remind you it's been Kendall Hunter all along. Hunter ran for 46 yards on six carries Saturday.

Staying out west, Seattle Seahawks rookie quarterback Russell Wilson lit up Denver Broncos reserves for 155 passing yards and two fourth-quarter touchdowns Saturday, and it's certainly possible Wilson could vault Matt Flynn for starting duties. Flynn threw for only 31 yards Saturday. Despite rumors that 2011 starter Tarvaris Jackson is headed elsewhere, fantasy owners really don't have much clarity on who will start for Seattle. The veteran Flynn would seem to be a better option for fantasy owners -- hey, he had a six-touchdown game to close the 2011 season! -- but not if he's on the bench.


• Speaking of the bench, oft-discussed wide receiver Terrell Owens made his Seahawks debut Saturday and was targeted five times, but caught nary a pass. Owens dropped what would have been a wide-open 46-yard touchdown, but at least he was wide open. Owens has actually seen his ADP stock fall in the past week, which makes sense. One has to wonder if any Seattle quarterbacks can be successful with their weapons.


• As for other news that didn't take place in a preseason game, Kansas City Chiefs wide receiver Dwayne Bowe ended his holdout, signing a one-year tender. This shouldn't affect Bowe's fantasy value, as he's going in the sixth round, and just outside the top 20 at his position. Jacksonville Jaguars running back Maurice Jones-Drew and Pittsburgh Steelers wide receiver Mike Wallace remain notable holdouts, but fantasy owners are wisely presuming they'll play, since their lofty ADP hasn't changed.
 
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Lloyd effect on Pats' other receivers

How much will statistics of Welker, Gronkowski and Hernandez suffer?


By Christopher Harris | Special to ESPN.com

How does Brandon Lloyd's presence affect the fantasy values of other Patriots receiving options?



Tom Brady was amazing last season: 5,235 passing yards and 39 TD passes. But the most amazing part of all is that he produced such an incredible season without a deep threat. Sure, the New England Patriots gave Chad Ochocinco a look as an outside receiver and continued to hitch part of their playbook to the unreliable knees of Deion Branch. But the fact is, the three major pass-catchers in that Pats' offense last season were Wes Welker, Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez. Those three players were 88th, 73rd and 107th in average yards at the catch, respectively, among all qualifiers in 2011. In other words, Brady produced extraordinary downfield passing numbers while rarely actually throwing the ball downfield.

But one had the sense that it couldn't last. As tremendous as Brady's accuracy is, and as precise and/or beastly as those three pass-catchers are, good defenses started to figure out New England's short passing game. In the Patriots' final two postseason games, the Baltimore Ravens and the New York Giants held Brady below 300 yards.


That's why signing Brandon Lloyd made good sense for this team. Lloyd was mostly mired in the St. Louis Rams' terrible offense last season, yet still finished 14th in average yards at the catch. And two seasons ago, with Pats offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels serving as his head coach in Denver, Lloyd finished second in the NFL in average yards at the catch, and first in fantasy points among WRs. He does other things well, but Lloyd is first and foremost a deep-ball artist who can stretch a defense, and who has tremendous skills when fighting for a jump ball. He may not be huge (he's 6 feet, 192 pounds), but he gets up there and snatches away passes with the best of them.

I have Lloyd listed as my No. 18 WR this year, which is in itself kind of a "split the baby" ranking. One could convincingly make the argument that Lloyd should be much higher, considering he won a fantasy points title with Kyle Orton and Tim Tebow chucking him the rock a couple years back, and now will catch passes from Brady. Perhaps he can fulfill the Randy Moss role the way Ochocinco never did, and we know the kind of sweet music that Brady and Moss made over the years. Of course, one could also make the argument that the Pats' offense wasn't exactly broken and thus didn't need to be fixed, and that Lloyd will serve mostly as a sanity check for defenses too willing to play eight or nine men in the box. After all, Welker, Gronkowski and Hernandez all still need to be fed, so why would an extraordinary number of targets go to the new guy?


I think the truth will wind up being somewhere in the middle. Lloyd will have some spectacular games in which he and Brady get the deep ball humming, but I think he'll also be quiet when the Pats are content with the kind of killer methodical passing game they utilized to such great effect last season.


And if I'm right -- if Lloyd is going to be a big (if not the biggest) part of Brady's arsenal -- something may have to give with the other guys. Welker had 173 targets in '11, while Gronk had 124 and Hernandez had 113. Meanwhile, Branch had 90 and Ocho had 32. Sure, we could give Lloyd the full 122 targets from those two lesser lights and leave the other guys exactly where they were last year, but that's probably unrealistic. Branch is still on this team, and as of this writing the Pats were also allowing Jabar Gaffney and Donte' Stallworth to battle for roster spots. Therefore, the math says that some of Lloyd's targets will be siphoned from the Big Three. Will it hinder those players' values?

Probably a bit. When I put together our '12 projections for New England's pass-catchers, I gave Welker 165 (a decline of eight targets), Gronk 106 (a decline of 18) and Hernandez 97 (a decline of 16), while giving Lloyd 113 (most of which are indeed siphoned from the Branch/Ocho combo). Though he's playing under the franchise tag and could legitimately leave New England in 2013, Welker seems safest to me, because nobody else can do what he does with the underneath stuff. I still have him rated No. 7 among WRs in standard fantasy leagues. But I do think Gronk and Hernandez each lose about a target per game, which isn't enough to crush their ranks (I have Gronk No. 1 among fantasy TEs, in large part because of his red-zone prowess, and Hernandez No. 6), but it could cap their respective upsides.


The bottom line? Lloyd makes a great offense even more diverse and probably injects more week-to-week variability into the performances of everyone, save Welker. But his presence in New England is definitely not enough to scare me off the other pass-catching stars in this offense.
 
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Does streaming D/ST units work?

Playing the matchups could go a long way in maximing your fantasy roster


By Jim McCormick | Special to ESPN.com

In 2006, the Baltimore Ravens' defense and special teams posted an incredibly elite fantasy campaign with 236 points in ESPN standard leagues. The performance was so spectacular that the third D/ST that year in fantasy, the New England Patriots, posted 165 points, or just less than 70 percent of the Ravens' output. (The Bears were also a force in 2006, putting up 220 points as the No. 2 D/ST.) Baltimore's 14.8 fantasy points per game that season is a clip that rivals the average production of a top-five running back or a top-two wide receiver in most seasons.



Since the Ravens and Bears each broke 200 points in 2006, no fantasy defense has done so, and the average tally of the top-scoring fantasy defense since 2007 has been 178.2 points. That 2006 Ravens group was special and buoyed many to fantasy titles that season. While it's completely understandable that the Baltimore defense was drafted as the top unit in 2007 drafts with a midround average draft position (ADP) of 61.9, it ended up with just 90 points and as the 24th overall fantasy defense that year, dramatically disappointing those who invested considerable draft coin.



This might read as cherry-picking an extreme example of how volatile fantasy defenses can be, but it's simply the case that outside of a few exceptions, investing heavily in fantasy defenses is a misallocation of resources. In that 2007 season when the Ravens' defense collapsed, for example, the Chargers' D/ST unit posted the top fantasy effort with 197 points, only to follow up their No. 1 ADP in 2008 with just 90 points that season (ending as the 19th defense by fantasy production).


Check out the top five D/ST by ADP since 2009. (For a complete list of D/ST performance since 2009, click here.)


2009

<table><thead><tr><th> Team </th><th> ADP </th><th> Fantasy points </th><th> Final rank </th></tr></thead><tbody><tr class="last"><td> PIT </td><td> 61.8 </td><td> 111 </td><td> 16 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> NYG </td><td> 73.8 </td><td> 83 </td><td> 26 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> BAL </td><td> 84.5 </td><td> 153 </td><td> 5 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> TEN </td><td> 89.5 </td><td> 95 </td><td> 23 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> PHI </td><td> 90.5 </td><td> 158 </td><td> 3 </td></tr></tbody></table>



2010

<table><thead><tr><th> Team </th><th> ADP </th><th> Fantasy points </th><th> Final rank </th></tr></thead><tbody><tr class="last"><td> NYJ </td><td> 65.8 </td><td> 143 </td><td> 5 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> BAL </td><td> 91 </td><td> 126 </td><td> 8 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> GB </td><td> 96.3 </td><td> 167 </td><td> 3 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> PHI </td><td> 98.1 </td><td> 107 </td><td> 15 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> DAL </td><td> 102.6 </td><td> 105 </td><td> 20 </td></tr></tbody></table>



2011

<table><thead><tr><th> Team </th><th> ADP </th><th> Fantasy points </th><th> Final rank </th></tr></thead><tbody><tr class="last"><td> PIT </td><td> 67.4 </td><td> 129 </td><td> 10 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> GB </td><td> 77.5 </td><td> 107 </td><td> 13 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> NYJ </td><td> 88 </td><td> 139 </td><td> 7 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> BAL </td><td> 94 </td><td> 161 </td><td> 3 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> CHI </td><td> 110.3 </td><td> 163 </td><td> 2 </td></tr></tbody></table>



2011 Preseason D/ST Rankings

<table><thead><tr><th> Team </th><th> ADP </th><th> Final Rank </th></tr></thead><tbody><tr class="last"><td> Steelers D/ST </td><td> 1 </td><td> 10 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> Packers D/ST </td><td> 2 </td><td> T13 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> Jets D/ST </td><td> 3 </td><td> 7 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> Ravens D/ST </td><td> 4 </td><td> 3 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> Bears D/ST </td><td> 5 </td><td> 2 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> Falcons D/ST </td><td> 6 </td><td> 12 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> Eagles D/ST </td><td> 7 </td><td> 6 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> Saints D/ST </td><td> 8 </td><td> 28 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> Patriots D/ST </td><td> 9 </td><td> 19 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> Chargers D/ST </td><td> 10 </td><td> 25 </td></tr></tbody></table>



2011 Top 10 Fantasy D/ST

<table><thead><tr><th> Team </th><th> Final Rank </th><th> ADP </th></tr></thead><tbody><tr class="last"><td> 49ers D/ST </td><td> 1 </td><td> 17 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> Bears D/ST </td><td> 2 </td><td> 5 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> Ravens D/ST </td><td> 3 </td><td> 4 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> Seahawks D/ST </td><td> 4 </td><td> 23 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> Texans D/ST </td><td> 5 </td><td> 24 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> Eagles D/ST </td><td> 6 </td><td> 7 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> Jets D/ST </td><td> 7 </td><td> 3 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> Lions D/ST </td><td> 8 </td><td> 14 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> Bengals D/ST </td><td> 9 </td><td> 22 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> Steelers D/ST </td><td> 10 </td><td> 1 </td></tr></tbody></table>



Reaping strong returns from one of the top defenses by average draft position in a given year is certainly possible, but you are just as likely to lose on such a venture, given how often expensive defensive commodities don't live up to their price tag. Busts abound at every position, every year; but with the nature of how top defenses are valued each season, it makes more sense to stockpile offensive talent while some of your peers pay premiums for defense.



It's understandable that fantasy owners want a top D/ST that they can plug in every week and trust for consistent production, but the numbers suggest it's not necessarily likely that you'll net a consistent producer at the position. Even last season's top unit, the San Francisco 49ers -- a group drafted as the 18th D/ST on average in 2011, which is to say undrafted in the majority of standard leagues -- posted four games with four or fewer points. The Baltimore Ravens and Seattle Seahawks ended up as the third and fourth fantasy defenses last season, respectively, and each posted multiple outings with negative fantasy production. There is a good deal of volatility found in every fantasy defense; it's simply the nature of the position. Don't get me wrong: There is still strong value in having an elite fantasy defense on your roster. I'm just not sure that you'll necessarily get that one in the draft. You might succeed in applying a different approach to managing your defensive production.


Instead of investing heavily and feeling compelled to start that same defense every week, it's better to play the most favorable matchups as they approach. Much like in fantasy baseball where managers may be apt to "stream" one or several pitching spots, I suggest that you seek to stream your defense throughout the season.



In fantasy baseball, it can prove prudent to seek out the most favorable splits and scenarios among available starting pitchers in order to reap strong numbers out of the position, versus simply plugging in what might be one middling arm for a long stretch and hoping for the best. The result is often a Frankenstein of stronger statistics as a result of seeking out pitchers who are in favorable positions to produce; like pitching in friendly parks in Seattle and San Diego or facing the Houston Astros' lineup.



In applying this to fantasy football, you simply seek out the sloppiest and suspect offenses available to you on the schedule. Given that in most leagues there are a number of available defenses each week on the waiver wire, you should have a reasonable selection of defenses to seek out in a majority of weeks (in heavy bye weeks, however, you'll want to plan ahead a bit more). Just like the way a hurler might get rocked by the Astros or blasted in an otherwise friendly pitching park, a seemingly inviting matchup can go awry when selecting a fantasy defense. Whether you find a stretch of several weeks of inviting matchups with one specific defense or need to hunt for your group on a near weekly basis, the goal is to seek out favorable matchups.

The theory of playing to matchups sounds simple enough, but how do we approach the application of it? Seeking out favorable offenses isn't an exact science, but using some helpful indicators can lead us in the right direction. While a number of 2011's poorest offenses could certainly improve this season, we can focus our matchup hunt by concentrating on some of the scenarios with inexperienced quarterbacks, porous offensive lines and generally limited offenses.



Using last season as an example, let's explore how D/STs that were drafted outside of the top 10 in 2011 produced versus some of the identifiably weaker offenses in football. Fantasy defenses averaged 12.8 points versus the St. Louis Rams last season, and in only three matchups last season did the defense facing the Rams fail to hit double-digit fantasy production. Last season, there were 12 fantasy defenses with ADPs outside of the top 10 that played the Rams; these units averaged 13 fantasy points per outing (the 49ers averaged 10.6 fantasy points per game last season).



The 12 teams with ADPs outside of the top 10 that faced the Indianapolis Colts last season averaged 10.8 points per game, while the 12 such D/STs that played the Tampa Bay Buccaneers averaged 10.1. The 11 teams that faced the Jacksonville Jaguars that were drafted outside the top 10 averaged just over eight points, while the 12 such teams that played the Cleveland Browns averaged just under nine points. These fantasy point averages compare favorably to the top D/STs from the past several seasons. It's not a foreign concept to apply matchups when picking up a team defense, but it does seem to be an underutilized approach when we consider the potential for successful point production.



Looking ahead to the first several weeks of the upcoming season, we can identify some matchups that appear inviting. The Buffalo Bills, for example, play the New York Jets in Week 1 and are bringing a capable secondary and a vastly revamped pass rush with an eye on exposing what could be a troubling protection scheme for New York. In Week 2, the Oakland Raiders visit the Miami Dolphins and could potentially be facing a rookie signal-caller, while that same week Cincinnati Bengals host the Browns' rookie quarterback. As the season unfolds, it becomes clearer which offenses are prone to struggle and afford opposing defenses a good deal of sacks and turnovers.



The value in this approach is really multifaceted: Your roster depth and production potential can see a significant boon if you decide to bypass one of the top eight defenses in terms of ADP (the top eight defenses had an ADP of 103.8 in 2011) and instead invest in lottery tickets at skill positions like running back and wide receiver. Another advantage is that in your hunt for ideal matchups, you might just unearth a diamond of a defense like the Houston Texans, San Francisco 49ers or Seattle Seahawks and choose to retain them for an enduring stretch. It's also unlikely that you'll find such a surprising commodity when bound to a high-cost fantasy defense. The greatest value of a successful "stream team" is, of course, the potential for strong point production.
 
HacheMan

HacheMan

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Ranking wide receivers by tiers
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Eric Karabell

No matter which fantasy sport you play, using a tiered system to choose, or at least judge, players is often a wise move. It's a dangerous tact to enter any draft or auction proceedings intent on ending up with any particular names, as in many cases there are others -- from wide receivers to outfielders to point guards -- in a similar class who can easily become bargains. We're talking statistics here, and while all of us bring some degree of inherent bias to who we choose and who we ignore, a tiered system helps alleviate this.



While I admit to often straying from a tiered fantasy football system when it comes to quarterback (with so few reliable choices and one starter per fantasy team) or running back (for this season the position is simply a mess and decisions can be dictated by myriad factors), this isn't the case at wide receiver. In fact, this season I've been relying on a tiered system. This is a significant deep position, and if I miss out on a guy I happen to like -- don't covet anyone! -- in the sixth round there's more often than not someone just like him lurking. In a way, the names become somewhat irrelevant. Just find another with similar statistical potential.


As a result, here are my thoughts on wide receivers for 2012 drafts using a tiered system, an exercise that essentially just groups similar options together. It's true that if five of the six players I group in a certain tier are off the draft/auction board, I would consider working a bit harder -- or overdraft/overpay -- for the final option. Of course, even though all the names are listed in efficient fashion in the ESPN draft tool, I like to print out a cheat sheet for all drafts, regardless of sport, and draw lines to signify certain tiers in advance, then cross out actual names during the draft/auction. If four members of a wide receiver tier are still out there in Round 6, I'll probably take a running back. If one name is there, I probably will not. Here are my updated rankings.
<offer></offer>

The Calvin Johnson tier: Well, he's pretty good. He even has a cool nickname, Megatron. Unlike past seasons -- well, all seasons -- I'm not simply and blindly choosing a running back in Round 1, so I might even get him in a league or two, despite the innate depth of the position.


The rest of the WR1 tier: I've got Larry Fitzgerald next, but the truth is I'd be fine with any of the other top 10 wide receivers as a second-round pick, even A.J. Green, who I have going 19th overall. My general concern with taking one of these top wide receivers in Round 2 is that I'll end up stuck with Kevin Smith as my best running back. Nobody wants that, even the Detroit Lions, but securing one of the top 10 wide receivers has been a theme in my drafts

The New York Giants' options tier: I'd prefer Hakeem Nicks to Victor Cruz and rank them 11th and 13th at their position, respectively, but this tier is where the options start to show flaws (like Steve Smith, for example). I could see either of these Giants ending up as top five choices, really. A year ago I could see either of the Dallas Cowboys' stars doing so. Now I have both Giants over both Cowboys, and because of durability questions Dez Bryant and Miles Austin are trending the wrong way, perhaps out of this tier any minute now.


The Dallas Cowboys' options tier: What does it say that I've actually moved Kevin Ogletree into my rankings at all? It says I'm concerned about Bryant and Austin being on the field in September, and since Tony Romo might not have his security blanket tight end, and Laurent Robinson left town, enter Ogletree, though not nearly in this tier. This tier has only the Cowboys, and if drafting today I might just skip it depending on how I feel about my first wide receiver. And if I didn't have a first wide receiver, a Cowboys WR wouldn't be my first.


The Philadelphia Eagles' options tier: What is it with the NFC East and its occasionally polarizing wide receiver tandems? I'd trust Jeremy Maclin over "I'll try when I wanna" DeSean Jackson every day of the week, but one starts a tier and the other kind of ends it. In between is new New England Patriots wideout Brandon Lloyd, whom I think is going to disappoint as a true fantasy starter, which is telling since he's flanked by Philadelphia Eagles. I'm sure there's nothing to worry about with Michael Vick averaging two MRIs per preseason week.


The Denver Broncos' options tier: And here's yet another tandem of upside guys, flanking Torrey Smith and Pierre Garcon. I don't believe either Demaryius Thomas or Eric Decker will turn into Reggie Wayne and magically become a top-10 choice and admit dumping them outside the top 25 wide receivers is hedging. If Peyton Manning throws a Philip Rivers-like 20 interceptions, they don't get charged to Thomas/Decker.


The San Diego Chargers' options and sleepers tier: Here's where fantasy leagues can be won or lost, with depth picks who end up starting for your team and thriving. Rivers needs someone to throw to, and even if he fails to halve the mistakes, the interceptions won't affect Malcom Floyd or Robert Meachem, leaders of this tier. I particularly like sleepers Titus Young (Detroit Lions) and Nate Washington (Tennessee Titans) over their paltry average draft positions and have them in the range of the Chargers' choices.

The Oakland Raiders' options tier: I want to believe in Denarius Moore and Darrius Heyward-Bey more than I do, but having them in WR5 territory seems reasonable based on their track records. Anquan Boldin and Sidney Rice end up here as well, which is also telling. Each has a track record, but perhaps fantasy owners are clinging to it a bit too tightly. I mean, look at their stats the past two seasons.


The rookie tier: Sure, every once in a while a rookie -- and it's rarely the one everyone expects -- breaks through with a monstrous first campaign, much like Boldin, for example. Well, I have talented Justin Blackmon and Michael Floyd falling to this range, barely top 50 at wide receiver. The Kansas City Chiefs' Jonathan Baldwin joins them. He was a rookie last year, but many might not have noticed. I wouldn't count on these players this season, but in dynasty formats I'm certainly more interested. We're talking about ESPN standard formats here, but the tiers adjust mightily if the rules are changed, like you can play four wide receivers at a time or there are keeper implications.


After the rookies start coming off the board, it's time to forget about tiers and find a name you like, if you even have room. Let's be clear about wide receivers for 2012: You can't help but find four or five useful options, so what I am finding is that when my tiers are done I'm adding more running backs and hoping for a DeMarco Murray-like surprise. Using a tiered system for wide receivers is smart strategy, especially because of uncommon depth. Enjoy!
 
HacheMan

HacheMan

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Lloyd effect on Pats' other receivers

How much will statistics of Welker, Gronkowski and Hernandez suffer?

By Christopher Harris | Special to ESPN.com

How does Brandon Lloyd's presence affect the fantasy values of other Patriots receiving options?



Tom Brady was amazing last season: 5,235 passing yards and 39 TD passes. But the most amazing part of all is that he produced such an incredible season without a deep threat. Sure, the New England Patriots gave Chad Ochocinco a look as an outside receiver and continued to hitch part of their playbook to the unreliable knees of Deion Branch. But the fact is, the three major pass-catchers in that Pats' offense last season were Wes Welker, Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez. Those three players were 88th, 73rd and 107th in average yards at the catch, respectively, among all qualifiers in 2011. In other words, Brady produced extraordinary downfield passing numbers while rarely actually throwing the ball downfield.

But one had the sense that it couldn't last. As tremendous as Brady's accuracy is, and as precise and/or beastly as those three pass-catchers are, good defenses started to figure out New England's short passing game. In the Patriots' final two postseason games, the Baltimore Ravens and the New York Giants held Brady below 300 yards.


That's why signing Brandon Lloyd made good sense for this team. Lloyd was mostly mired in the St. Louis Rams' terrible offense last season, yet still finished 14th in average yards at the catch. And two seasons ago, with Pats offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels serving as his head coach in Denver, Lloyd finished second in the NFL in average yards at the catch, and first in fantasy points among WRs. He does other things well, but Lloyd is first and foremost a deep-ball artist who can stretch a defense, and who has tremendous skills when fighting for a jump ball. He may not be huge (he's 6 feet, 192 pounds), but he gets up there and snatches away passes with the best of them.

I have Lloyd listed as my No. 18 WR this year, which is in itself kind of a "split the baby" ranking. One could convincingly make the argument that Lloyd should be much higher, considering he won a fantasy points title with Kyle Orton and Tim Tebow chucking him the rock a couple years back, and now will catch passes from Brady. Perhaps he can fulfill the Randy Moss role the way Ochocinco never did, and we know the kind of sweet music that Brady and Moss made over the years. Of course, one could also make the argument that the Pats' offense wasn't exactly broken and thus didn't need to be fixed, and that Lloyd will serve mostly as a sanity check for defenses too willing to play eight or nine men in the box. After all, Welker, Gronkowski and Hernandez all still need to be fed, so why would an extraordinary number of targets go to the new guy?


I think the truth will wind up being somewhere in the middle. Lloyd will have some spectacular games in which he and Brady get the deep ball humming, but I think he'll also be quiet when the Pats are content with the kind of killer methodical passing game they utilized to such great effect last season.


And if I'm right -- if Lloyd is going to be a big (if not the biggest) part of Brady's arsenal -- something may have to give with the other guys. Welker had 173 targets in '11, while Gronk had 124 and Hernandez had 113. Meanwhile, Branch had 90 and Ocho had 32. Sure, we could give Lloyd the full 122 targets from those two lesser lights and leave the other guys exactly where they were last year, but that's probably unrealistic. Branch is still on this team, and as of this writing the Pats were also allowing Jabar Gaffney and Donte' Stallworth to battle for roster spots. Therefore, the math says that some of Lloyd's targets will be siphoned from the Big Three. Will it hinder those players' values?

Probably a bit. When I put together our '12 projections for New England's pass-catchers, I gave Welker 165 (a decline of eight targets), Gronk 106 (a decline of 18) and Hernandez 97 (a decline of 16), while giving Lloyd 113 (most of which are indeed siphoned from the Branch/Ocho combo). Though he's playing under the franchise tag and could legitimately leave New England in 2013, Welker seems safest to me, because nobody else can do what he does with the underneath stuff. I still have him rated No. 7 among WRs in standard fantasy leagues. But I do think Gronk and Hernandez each lose about a target per game, which isn't enough to crush their ranks (I have Gronk No. 1 among fantasy TEs, in large part because of his red-zone prowess, and Hernandez No. 6), but it could cap their respective upsides.


The bottom line? Lloyd makes a great offense even more diverse and probably injects more week-to-week variability into the performances of everyone, save Welker. But his presence in New England is definitely not enough to scare me off the other pass-catching stars in this offense.
 
HacheMan

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Snap Distribution and You
This past weekend, I had the pleasure of attending Fantasy Football Fest in Atlantic City. There were dozens of players in attendance (Michael Vick, LeSean McCoy, and Phil Simms among them), several fantasy football experts in the house (Matthew Berry, Dave Richard on the list), and whole lot of people trying to sell their innovative product.

The Atlantic City Convention Center proved to be a good fit for the event. There were video games (including Tecmo Bowl), live drafts, lingerie football players, and even a few informative panels.

Although the Matthew Berry/LeSean McCoy/Michael Vick panel certainly stole the show, the fine folks at ReedPOP allowed us (“us” being Jeff Ratcliffe, Bryan Fontaine, and host Jim Day) to put on a panel of our own. The topic? Next-generation statistics in Fantasy Football. As if you needed to ask.

Today, I’m going to review half of my part of the presentation. This discussion related to the value of knowing where players line up on the field and how they produce from each of those positions.

In the other half of the presentation, I did a detailed analysis of Average Depth of Target.

Eli Manning and the slot man



<table style="width: 490px;" border="1" cellSpacing="0" cellPadding="0"><tbody><tr><td vAlign="bottom" width="171" noWrap=""> </td><td vAlign="bottom" width="185" colSpan="4" noWrap="">
% of Aimed Throws​
</td><td vAlign="bottom" width="18" noWrap=""> </td><td vAlign="bottom" width="117" colSpan="2" noWrap="">
Slot Data​
</td></tr><tr><td vAlign="bottom" width="171" noWrap="">
Year​
</td><td vAlign="bottom" width="42" noWrap="">
Back​
</td><td vAlign="bottom" width="47" noWrap="">
Wide​
</td><td vAlign="bottom" width="35" noWrap="">
Slot​
</td><td vAlign="bottom" width="61" noWrap="">
In-Line​
</td><td vAlign="bottom" width="18" noWrap=""> </td><td vAlign="bottom" width="75" noWrap="">
TD/Aimed​
</td><td vAlign="bottom" width="41" noWrap="">
aDOT​
</td></tr><tr><td vAlign="bottom" width="171" noWrap="">
2008​
</td><td vAlign="bottom" width="42" noWrap="">
16%​
</td><td vAlign="bottom" width="47" noWrap="">
49%​
</td><td vAlign="bottom" width="35" noWrap="">
26%​
</td><td vAlign="bottom" width="61" noWrap="">
10%​
</td><td vAlign="bottom" width="18" noWrap=""> </td><td vAlign="bottom" width="75" noWrap="">
6.5%​
</td><td vAlign="bottom" width="41" noWrap="">
9.7​
</td></tr><tr><td vAlign="bottom" width="171" noWrap="">
2009​
</td><td vAlign="bottom" width="42" noWrap="">
15%​
</td><td vAlign="bottom" width="47" noWrap="">
48%​
</td><td vAlign="bottom" width="35" noWrap="">
28%​
</td><td vAlign="bottom" width="61" noWrap="">
10%​
</td><td vAlign="bottom" width="18" noWrap=""> </td><td vAlign="bottom" width="75" noWrap="">
6.7%​
</td><td vAlign="bottom" width="41" noWrap="">
10.5​
</td></tr><tr><td vAlign="bottom" width="171" noWrap="">
2010​
</td><td vAlign="bottom" width="42" noWrap="">
17%​
</td><td vAlign="bottom" width="47" noWrap="">
49%​
</td><td vAlign="bottom" width="35" noWrap="">
24%​
</td><td vAlign="bottom" width="61" noWrap="">
10%​
</td><td vAlign="bottom" width="18" noWrap=""> </td><td vAlign="bottom" width="75" noWrap="">
9.4%​
</td><td vAlign="bottom" width="41" noWrap="">
10.0​
</td></tr><tr><td vAlign="bottom" width="171" noWrap="">
2011​
</td><td vAlign="bottom" width="42" noWrap="">
20%​
</td><td vAlign="bottom" width="47" noWrap="">
47%​
</td><td vAlign="bottom" width="35" noWrap="">
25%​
</td><td vAlign="bottom" width="61" noWrap="">
9%​
</td><td vAlign="bottom" width="18" noWrap=""> </td><td vAlign="bottom" width="75" noWrap="">
8.1%​
</td><td vAlign="bottom" width="41" noWrap="">
11.8​
</td></tr><tr><td vAlign="bottom" width="171" noWrap="">
NFL Avg​
</td><td vAlign="bottom" width="42" noWrap="">
19%​
</td><td vAlign="bottom" width="47" noWrap="">
42%​
</td><td vAlign="bottom" width="35" noWrap="">
26%​
</td><td vAlign="bottom" width="61" noWrap="">
13%​
</td><td vAlign="bottom" width="18" noWrap=""> </td><td vAlign="bottom" width="75" noWrap="">
4.6%​
</td><td vAlign="bottom" width="41" noWrap="">
9.3​
</td></tr></tbody></table>


What we’re focusing on here is new data available to fans that we’ve really never seen before. Thanks to a site like Pro Football Focus, we can look at how many snaps a player is seeing, where they’re lining up on the field, and what their job is on each play.

In the above chart, we’re taking a look at Eli Manning’s usage of his slot man.

A quick explanation of the chart: ‘Back’ refers to any player lined up in the backfield with Manning. ‘Slot’ refers only to players lined up in the slot. ‘Wide’ is the players lined up outside of the slot man, usually the split end and flanker. In-Line is simply the in-line tight end, which is any time a tight end has his hand in the dirt.

What jumps out here is the high touchdown and Average Depth of Target (aDOT) numbers produced by Manning’s slot man over the years. That is despite the fact that Manning doesn’t throw to the slot man much more than the NFL average of 26 percent. Each of the last four years, Manning’s slot receivers have a touchdown rate and aDOT above league average. The rate over the last two seasons is nearly double the league average.

So who are these slot receivers? That leads me to our next chart:



<table style="width: 490px;" border="1" cellSpacing="0" cellPadding="0"><tbody><tr><td vAlign="bottom" width="171" noWrap=""> </td><td vAlign="bottom" width="185" colSpan="4" noWrap="">
% of Targets​
</td><td vAlign="bottom" width="18" noWrap=""> </td><td vAlign="bottom" width="117" colSpan="2" noWrap="">
Slot Data​
</td></tr><tr><td vAlign="bottom" width="171" noWrap="">
Year​
</td><td vAlign="bottom" width="42" noWrap="">
Back​
</td><td vAlign="bottom" width="47" noWrap="">
Wide​
</td><td vAlign="bottom" width="35" noWrap="">
Slot​
</td><td vAlign="bottom" width="61" noWrap="">
In-Line​
</td><td vAlign="bottom" width="18" noWrap=""> </td><td vAlign="bottom" width="75" noWrap="">
TD/Aimed​
</td><td vAlign="bottom" width="41" noWrap="">
aDOT​
</td></tr><tr><td vAlign="bottom" width="171" noWrap="">
Steve Smith 2008​
</td><td vAlign="bottom" width="42" noWrap="">
0%​
</td><td vAlign="bottom" width="47" noWrap="">
44%​
</td><td vAlign="bottom" width="35" noWrap="">
56%​
</td><td vAlign="bottom" width="61" noWrap="">
0%​
</td><td vAlign="bottom" width="18" noWrap=""> </td><td vAlign="bottom" width="75" noWrap="">
2.1%​
</td><td vAlign="bottom" width="41" noWrap="">
9.0​
</td></tr><tr><td vAlign="bottom" width="171" noWrap="">
Steve Smith 2009​
</td><td vAlign="bottom" width="42" noWrap="">
0%​
</td><td vAlign="bottom" width="47" noWrap="">
30%​
</td><td vAlign="bottom" width="35" noWrap="">
70%​
</td><td vAlign="bottom" width="61" noWrap="">
0%​
</td><td vAlign="bottom" width="18" noWrap=""> </td><td vAlign="bottom" width="75" noWrap="">
3.8%​
</td><td vAlign="bottom" width="41" noWrap="">
10.2​
</td></tr><tr><td vAlign="bottom" width="171" noWrap="">
Steve Smith 2010​
</td><td vAlign="bottom" width="42" noWrap="">
0%​
</td><td vAlign="bottom" width="47" noWrap="">
47%​
</td><td vAlign="bottom" width="35" noWrap="">
53%​
</td><td vAlign="bottom" width="61" noWrap="">
0%​
</td><td vAlign="bottom" width="18" noWrap=""> </td><td vAlign="bottom" width="75" noWrap="">
7.9%​
</td><td vAlign="bottom" width="41" noWrap="">
10.6​
</td></tr><tr><td vAlign="bottom" width="171" noWrap="">
Victor Cruz 2011​
</td><td vAlign="bottom" width="42" noWrap="">
0%​
</td><td vAlign="bottom" width="47" noWrap="">
24%​
</td><td vAlign="bottom" width="35" noWrap="">
76%​
</td><td vAlign="bottom" width="61" noWrap="">
0%​
</td><td vAlign="bottom" width="18" noWrap=""> </td><td vAlign="bottom" width="75" noWrap="">
7.0%​
</td><td vAlign="bottom" width="41" noWrap="">
11.9​
</td></tr><tr><td vAlign="bottom" width="171" noWrap="">
NFL Avg​
</td><td vAlign="bottom" width="42" noWrap="">
19%​
</td><td vAlign="bottom" width="47" noWrap="">
42%​
</td><td vAlign="bottom" width="35" noWrap="">
26%​
</td><td vAlign="bottom" width="61" noWrap="">
13%​
</td><td vAlign="bottom" width="18" noWrap=""> </td><td vAlign="bottom" width="75" noWrap="">
4.6%​
</td><td vAlign="bottom" width="41" noWrap="">
9.3​
</td></tr></tbody></table>


After Steve Smith produced strong fantasy numbers while in the slot from 2008-to-2010, we probably should’ve seen Victor Cruz’s 2011 breakout coming. Of course, this time last year, we didn’t know if Cruz was even going to earn regular snaps. In fact, he barely played the first two weeks. Smith’s touchdown rate isn’t overly impressive in 2009, but that’s mainly due to the heavy volume of targets. He scored seven touchdowns that year. Prior to a season-ending injury, his scoring rate was very high (7.9 percent) in 2010, as was Cruz’s in 2011 (7.0 percent). You’ll also notice that the combined four-year aDOT is well above league average.

So what’s the point? Cruz can sustain his fantasy production; it will simply come a little differently. The explosive plays will drop a bit, but his aDOT and touchdown numbers will remain strong. Manning makes excellent use of his slot man and that’s Cruz’s gig long-term, especially if Rueben Randle develops on the outside.



<table style="width: 428px;" border="1" cellSpacing="0" cellPadding="0"><tbody><tr><td vAlign="bottom" width="171" noWrap="">
Stat​
</td><td vAlign="bottom" width="51" noWrap="">
Total​
</td><td vAlign="bottom" width="41" noWrap="">
Back​
</td><td vAlign="bottom" width="41" noWrap="">
Wide​
</td><td vAlign="bottom" width="51" noWrap="">
Slot​
</td><td vAlign="bottom" width="73" noWrap="">
In-Line​
</td></tr><tr><td vAlign="bottom" width="171" noWrap="">
% of Targets​
</td><td vAlign="bottom" width="51" noWrap="">
100%​
</td><td vAlign="bottom" width="41" noWrap="">
19%​
</td><td vAlign="bottom" width="41" noWrap="">
42%​
</td><td vAlign="bottom" width="51" noWrap="">
26%​
</td><td vAlign="bottom" width="73" noWrap="">
13%​
</td></tr><tr><td vAlign="bottom" width="171" noWrap="">
Completion %​
</td><td vAlign="bottom" width="51" noWrap="">
65%​
</td><td vAlign="bottom" width="41" noWrap="">
79%​
</td><td vAlign="bottom" width="41" noWrap="">
58%​
</td><td vAlign="bottom" width="51" noWrap="">
65%​
</td><td vAlign="bottom" width="73" noWrap="">
69%​
</td></tr><tr><td vAlign="bottom" width="171" noWrap="">
Yards-Per-Attempt​
</td><td vAlign="bottom" width="51" noWrap="">
7.6​
</td><td vAlign="bottom" width="41" noWrap="">
6.2​
</td><td vAlign="bottom" width="41" noWrap="">
8.0​
</td><td vAlign="bottom" width="51" noWrap="">
7.8​
</td><td vAlign="bottom" width="73" noWrap="">
7.7​
</td></tr><tr><td vAlign="bottom" width="171" noWrap="">
Avg. Depth of Target​
</td><td vAlign="bottom" width="51" noWrap="">
8.8​
</td><td vAlign="bottom" width="41" noWrap="">
0.3​
</td><td vAlign="bottom" width="41" noWrap="">
12.7​
</td><td vAlign="bottom" width="51" noWrap="">
9.3​
</td><td vAlign="bottom" width="73" noWrap="">
7.6​
</td></tr><tr><td vAlign="bottom" width="171" noWrap="">
YAC/Completion​
</td><td vAlign="bottom" width="51" noWrap="">
5.4​
</td><td vAlign="bottom" width="41" noWrap="">
8.1​
</td><td vAlign="bottom" width="41" noWrap="">
4.3​
</td><td vAlign="bottom" width="51" noWrap="">
4.7​
</td><td vAlign="bottom" width="73" noWrap="">
5.1​
</td></tr><tr><td vAlign="bottom" width="171" noWrap="">
TD-Per-Target​
</td><td vAlign="bottom" width="51" noWrap="">
4.5%​
</td><td vAlign="bottom" width="41" noWrap="">
2.5%​
</td><td vAlign="bottom" width="41" noWrap="">
5.0%​
</td><td vAlign="bottom" width="51" noWrap="">
4.6%​
</td><td vAlign="bottom" width="73" noWrap="">
5.8%​
</td></tr><tr><td vAlign="bottom" width="171" noWrap="">
INT-Per-Target​
</td><td vAlign="bottom" width="51" noWrap="">
3.1%​
</td><td vAlign="bottom" width="41" noWrap="">
1.2%​
</td><td vAlign="bottom" width="41" noWrap="">
3.9%​
</td><td vAlign="bottom" width="51" noWrap="">
3.6%​
</td><td vAlign="bottom" width="73" noWrap="">
2.6%​
</td></tr></tbody></table>


Our next slide is a simple split of league average for players lined up in our four different offensive zones. Focusing on Wide vs. Slot, we see higher yards-per-attempt, average depth of target, touchdown, and interception rates for outside receivers. On the other hand, the slot receivers enjoy a higher catch rate and yards-after-catch production.

Slot receivers are generally better bets in PPR, while guys who line up out wide will do more damage in yardage/TD-heavy leagues.

One final note here - you’ll notice that tight ends have the best touchdown rate on a per-target basis, while backs have the worst. This is hardly a shock, as tight ends generally see additional work inside the redzone.

The Patriots tight end and “tight end”

Our final pair of charts will focus on the variation in production based on where a player is lining and what their job is on each type of play. Although the application of this type of data to fantasy football advice is dependent on role changes and injuries, there is definitely a lot to be learned about each team’s offensive philosophy. At the very least, you can use this data to win bets against your buddy by making projections on each individual play.

Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez make for good examples.

Rob Gronkowski



<table style="width: 361px;" border="1" cellSpacing="0" cellPadding="0"><tbody><tr><td vAlign="bottom" width="171" noWrap="">
Year​
</td><td vAlign="bottom" width="43" noWrap="">
Back​
</td><td vAlign="bottom" width="47" noWrap="">
Wide​
</td><td vAlign="bottom" width="40" noWrap="">
Slot​
</td><td vAlign="bottom" width="60" noWrap="">
In-Line​
</td></tr><tr><td vAlign="bottom" width="171" noWrap="">
% of Snaps​
</td><td vAlign="bottom" width="43" noWrap="">
1%​
</td><td vAlign="bottom" width="47" noWrap="">
4%​
</td><td vAlign="bottom" width="40" noWrap="">
34%​
</td><td vAlign="bottom" width="60" noWrap="">
61%​
</td></tr><tr><td vAlign="bottom" width="171" noWrap="">
% of Pass Routes​
</td><td vAlign="bottom" width="43" noWrap="">
2%​
</td><td vAlign="bottom" width="47" noWrap="">
6%​
</td><td vAlign="bottom" width="40" noWrap="">
53%​
</td><td vAlign="bottom" width="60" noWrap="">
39%​
</td></tr><tr><td vAlign="bottom" width="171" noWrap="">
% of Targets​
</td><td vAlign="bottom" width="43" noWrap="">
3%​
</td><td vAlign="bottom" width="47" noWrap="">
7%​
</td><td vAlign="bottom" width="40" noWrap="">
48%​
</td><td vAlign="bottom" width="60" noWrap="">
43%​
</td></tr><tr><td vAlign="bottom" width="171" noWrap=""> </td><td vAlign="bottom" width="43" noWrap=""> </td><td vAlign="bottom" width="47" noWrap=""> </td><td vAlign="bottom" width="40" noWrap=""> </td><td vAlign="bottom" width="60" noWrap=""> </td></tr><tr><td vAlign="bottom" width="171" noWrap="">
Target-Per-Snap​
</td><td vAlign="bottom" width="43" noWrap="">
27%​
</td><td vAlign="bottom" width="47" noWrap="">
20%​
</td><td vAlign="bottom" width="40" noWrap="">
17%​
</td><td vAlign="bottom" width="60" noWrap="">
8%​
</td></tr><tr><td vAlign="bottom" width="171" noWrap="">
Target-Per-Route​
</td><td vAlign="bottom" width="43" noWrap="">
36%​
</td><td vAlign="bottom" width="47" noWrap="">
26%​
</td><td vAlign="bottom" width="40" noWrap="">
20%​
</td><td vAlign="bottom" width="60" noWrap="">
24%​
</td></tr></tbody></table>


Notice from our chart that if Gronkowki is lined up with his hand in the ground, there's an eight percent chance he'll be targeted on the play. However, if he runs a route, that percentage jumps to 24 percent.

On the other hand, if he's in the slot, there's already a 17 percent chance he'll see a target before the ball is even snapped. If it's a pass play, there's a 20 percent chance the ball is coming his way.

So, if you own Gronkowski in Fantasy and you see him lined up with his hand in the dirt, you shouldn’t be as excited as you'd be if he were in the slot.

Aaron Hernandez



<table style="width: 360px;" border="1" cellSpacing="0" cellPadding="0"><tbody><tr><td vAlign="bottom" width="171" noWrap="">
Year​
</td><td vAlign="bottom" width="43" noWrap="">
Back​
</td><td vAlign="bottom" width="47" noWrap="">
Wide​
</td><td vAlign="bottom" width="40" noWrap="">
Slot​
</td><td vAlign="bottom" width="60" noWrap="">
In-Line​
</td></tr><tr><td vAlign="bottom" width="171" noWrap="">
% of Snaps​
</td><td vAlign="bottom" width="43" noWrap="">
8%​
</td><td vAlign="bottom" width="47" noWrap="">
29%​
</td><td vAlign="bottom" width="40" noWrap="">
35%​
</td><td vAlign="bottom" width="60" noWrap="">
29%​
</td></tr><tr><td vAlign="bottom" width="171" noWrap="">
% of Pass Routes​
</td><td vAlign="bottom" width="43" noWrap="">
9%​
</td><td vAlign="bottom" width="47" noWrap="">
28%​
</td><td vAlign="bottom" width="40" noWrap="">
42%​
</td><td vAlign="bottom" width="60" noWrap="">
21%​
</td></tr><tr><td vAlign="bottom" width="171" noWrap="">
% of Targets​
</td><td vAlign="bottom" width="43" noWrap="">
10%​
</td><td vAlign="bottom" width="47" noWrap="">
14%​
</td><td vAlign="bottom" width="40" noWrap="">
44%​
</td><td vAlign="bottom" width="60" noWrap="">
32%​
</td></tr><tr><td vAlign="bottom" width="171" noWrap=""> </td><td vAlign="bottom" width="43" noWrap=""> </td><td vAlign="bottom" width="47" noWrap=""> </td><td vAlign="bottom" width="40" noWrap=""> </td><td vAlign="bottom" width="60" noWrap=""> </td></tr><tr><td vAlign="bottom" width="171" noWrap="">
Target-Per-Snap​
</td><td vAlign="bottom" width="43" noWrap="">
17%​
</td><td vAlign="bottom" width="47" noWrap="">
7%​
</td><td vAlign="bottom" width="40" noWrap="">
17%​
</td><td vAlign="bottom" width="60" noWrap="">
15%​
</td></tr><tr><td vAlign="bottom" width="171" noWrap="">
Target-Per-Route​
</td><td vAlign="bottom" width="43" noWrap="">
24%​
</td><td vAlign="bottom" width="47" noWrap="">
12%​
</td><td vAlign="bottom" width="40" noWrap="">
24%​
</td><td vAlign="bottom" width="60" noWrap="">
34%​
</td></tr></tbody></table>


As shown by the above ‘percentage of snap’ data, Hernandez is basically a wide receiver. He's lined up in the slot or out wide 64 percent of the time, plus another eight percent in the backfield. That means he’s lined up with his hand in the dirt only 28 percent of the time!

He is Tom Brady's target a whopping 33 percent of the time when he runs a route as an in-line tight end, something he did 127 times last year.

We see he isn't quite as involved when lined up out wide. Despite playing the same number of snaps and actually seeing more pass routes out wide than he does in-line, he's targeted on only 12 percent of those routes, compared to 34 percent in-line.

If you own Hernandez, your base case scenario is him running a route after starting with his hand in the dirt.
 
HacheMan

HacheMan

hacheman@therx.com
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Messages
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<table border="0" cellSpacing="0" cellPadding="0" width="940"><tbody><tr vAlign="top"><td width="843" align="left">Training Camp Losers Not everyone has time to follow every preseason game, stay abreast of the developments from training camp and read into coach’s quotes. That’s what we’re here for.

Over the last month, values have been shifting across the fantasy landscape. Here are 16 guys that are losing steam:

1. Peyton Manning, QB, Broncos
Peyton is 36, didn’t play football last year and has had three recent neck surgeries. Still, it’s a bit of a blow to the system when we realize this Greek God of quarterbacking isn’t throwing the ball well. Through two preseason games, Manning is 20-of-30 for 221 yards with three interceptions and no touchdowns. He’s also had trouble throwing with any power to his right, a result of nerve complications from those neck surgeries. With so many other quarterbacks rising, Manning is falling to the bottom of QB1 range. Arm strength is the concern.

2. Isaac Redman, RB, Steelers
When Rashard Mendenhall tore his ACL in Week 17 last year, thoughts of Redman as a 2012 feature back immediately came to mind. Not so fast. Redman has looked plodding at camp, is currently sidelined by a groin/hip injury and the Steelers’ offensive tackle situation is a mess. An even bigger concern is that Mendenhall is progressing quicker than expected and could be ready to play as soon as Week 5.

3. Miles Austin, WR, Cowboys
In a vacuum, a preseason hamstring strain isn’t a big deal. But Austin has now sustained three serious hamstring pulls in the last year and it cost him six full games in 2011. His issue is bordering on chronic. On top of that, Dez Bryant was having a monster camp before the knee tendonitis popped up.

4. Roy Helu, RB, Redskins
For much of the offseason, the Redskins’ coaches said they were concerned about Helu’s ability to stand up to a full workload. Helu proceeded to prove them right, succumbing to Achilles’ tendonitis on both of his heels. Evan Royster opened camp as the clear starter and is going to go wire-to-wire with the gig. The Shanahans continue to talk up Royster, Alfred Morris and a rehabbing Tim Hightower. Helu has slipped to the back burner.

5. Toby Gerhart, RB, Vikings
Although Adrian Peterson (ACL surgery) won’t play in any preseason games, he’s fully expected to be active for Week 1. It’s a major blow to Gerhart, a player that strictly had value because he touches the ball 21.0 times per game when Peterson sits. Now it looks like Peterson is on track to be getting full workloads by October.

6. Maurice Jones-Drew, RB, Jaguars
Jones-Drew hasn’t been around the Jags in so long that he hasn’t even met new coach Mike Mularkey. He’s missed the entire training camp under a new regime and even if he reports just before Week 1, they’ll make him earn it. Jones-Drew won’t be in true football shape and talented backup Rashad Jennings has been the star of camp. I wrote about the effect long holdouts have on players here.

7. Philip Rivers, QB, Chargers
Rivers entered camp with lingering questions regarding his arm strength and velocity. He’s done nothing to dispel those suggestions. Through two preseason games, Rivers is averaging just 9.1 yards per completion and has three interceptions -- one of which on a badly under thrown ball. He also lost exciting prospect Vincent Brown (ankle) for at least eight weeks.

8. Brian Quick, WR, Rams
When you’re a rookie out of Appalachian State, the biggest question is if you can adjust to NFL-level corners. Quick has been slow to come around. He started off camp unimpressively, failing to beat press coverage and rounding his way out of breaks. Steve Smith and Danny Amendola have been the starters, while Brandon Gibson and Austin Pettis are getting first-team reps as well.

9. James Starks, RB, Packers
Even if Starks’ turf toe ailment proves to be surmountable, the Packers aren’t waiting for him. His early-camp struggles were well documented and veteran pounder Cedric Benson has been signed. Alex Green was also outplaying Starks before the toe issue.

10. Randy Moss, WR, 49ers
Moss has had a quiet camp and there’s buzz that he’ll only be counted on for 20-25 snaps per game this season. That makes him a situational deep threat on a team that’s as conservative as it gets. Moss’ deep-ball skills just aren’t a good fit with tentative check-down artist Alex Smith. Mario Manningham is coming on strong of late as well.

11. Michael Turner, RB, Falcons
Reports out of Atlanta have Turner looking a “step slow.” Shocker. He’s 30 and averaged 3.24 yards per carry over the final six games of last season. Turner no longer fits in Atlanta as they shift to an up-tempo, aggressive offensive scheme. Don’t be surprised if he starts complaining about a not getting enough carries once the season gets going.

12. Denarius Moore, WR, Raiders
Much like Miles Austin, Moore’s hamstring woes are now bordering on chronic. He first injured his right hamstring in mid-June and is still missing practices two months later. Wide receivers and hamstring woes just don’t mix thanks to all the fast-twitch bursting they do.

13. Jahvid Best, RB, Lions
Best last suffered a concussion in October of 2011. It’s been 10 months and he still isn’t anywhere near ready. He’ll reportedly start the season on PUP and I’d be surprised if he played in a game this season. Best’s career is sadly in jeopardy.

14. Jabar Gaffney, WR, Patriots
So much for Gaffney stepping in and seizing the No. 3 wideout job. He hasn’t impressed during camp and is rotating reps with the likes of Deion Branch and Donte’ Stallworth. At this point, we can’t expect anything more than a timeshare in a best-case scenario.

15. Michael Floyd, WR, Cardinals
The Cards weren’t messing around when they said that Floyd would open camp behind Andre Roberts. The No. 13 overall pick in the draft did just that and still hasn’t climbed the chart. The only time Floyd has been getting first-team reps is when the Cards go four-wide.

16. Austin Collie, WR, Colts
Collie went from fast-rising sleeper to hands-off status quickly. Much like Jahvid Best, Collie’s concussion history means he’s always one big hit away from a season-threatening injury. Even if he comes back from this latest blow, there will still be a ton of risk for owners.

​

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HacheMan

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Super-Deep Sleepers for 2012

By Christopher Harris | ESPN.com

This list is so deep, Bilal Powell is "too big a name" for it.


This is my fifth year of writing a "Super-Deep Sleepers" column, and the point isn't to confirm widely held suspicions, or isolate players who should find themselves on the end of your fantasy bench. In fact, I daresay that none of the 10 players I'm about to mention should be drafted in 10- or 12-team leagues. Yes, I'm intrigued by (for example) Leonard Hankerson, Kendall Hunter and Jacquizz Rodgers in 2012. But each of those men is in my personal Top 200 and as such are pretty darned draftable right now. They're good lottery tickets to own, but they're too "big" for this list.


The same holds true for a guy like Powell, who's had a strong summer and by many accounts has bypassed Joe McKnight for the New York Jets' backup RB job behind Shonn Greene. Powell barely missed my Top 200, yet including him here would feel like a cheat, because he's potentially the No. 2 man behind a somewhat lightly regarded starter on a team that says it wants to run the ball like crazy. If Powell goes nutso in Week 1, nobody who's been paying attention would be particularly surprised. The same could be said of someone like Jonathan Dwyer playing behind Isaac Redman. Pretty clearly, these guys can be drafted in 12-team leagues.


Those aren't the kind of players I'm trying to find in this column. I'm going deeper. I'm looking for relative obscurity. Guys who are far outside the Top 200. Guys with little chance of being stars in '12. But guys who I believe have talent, and who could -- given the right opportunity -- excel this season. Don't draft these players, but remember their names, and at the first hint of a depth-chart shakeup, prepare to pounce on the waiver wire.


Hey, I'm obviously not going to hit a grand slam on very many of these. Most will likely fade into the NFL background, and some might not even make their respective teams' 53-man rosters come September. But based on past history, I'm guessing a few will become big names in the fantasy game someday soon. Here's a rundown of the players I've picked the past four years:


2008: Anthony Alridge, David Clowney, Will Franklin, Roy Hall, Tim Hightower, Jason Hill, Jalen Parmele, Antonio Pittman, Marcus Thomas, Mike Sims-Walker


2009: Andre Caldwell, Austin Collie, James Davis, Jermichael Finley, Arian Foster, Mike Goodson, Rashad Jennings, Marko Mitchell, Bernard Scott, D.J. Ware


2010: Andre Brown, Deon Butler, Kareem Huggins, Chris Ivory, Jeremiah Johnson, Steve Johnson, Legedu Naanee, Isaac Redman, Brian Robiskie, Keiland Williams


2011: Dezmon Briscoe, Delone Carter, Eric Decker, Jamie Harper, Kendall Hunter, Denarius Moore, Jordan Norwood, Julius Thomas, Johnny White, Damian Williams


Let's take a look at this year's list:


Bryce Brown, RB, Philadelphia Eagles: Any discussion of Brown begins with questions about his character. He transferred from Tennessee when Lane Kiffin left, but the circumstances were controversial and the Volunteers wouldn't release Brown from his scholarship. After sitting out a year, he landed at Kansas State and lasted three games before essentially quitting the team. Brown was the nation's premier RB prospect of '09 coming out of high school and has an NFL body: 6 feet and 223 pounds. He's played better than fellow rookie Chris Polk this summer, though neither guy will threaten Dion Lewis as LeSean McCoy's backup right away. But whereas McCoy has regularly suffered nicks and dings and Lewis is undersized (5-foot-8, 195 pounds), I can envision Brown taking on power-back duties this season under the right circumstances. Of course, he's so raw (with 104 total collegiate carries and zero pass-blocking experience) that it also wouldn't be a shock to see him wind up on Philly's practice squad. But as we've all heard a billion times, the NFL position that's easiest to jump directly into is running back. Should he earn playing time, Brown has the raw tools to make standout plays.

Jordan Cameron, TE, Cleveland Browns: NFL teams are drafting a new breed of tight end these days -- unbelievably big, unbelievably athletic men who don't necessarily have much football experience -- but I was at least a season too early picking Julius Thomas for this list last year. So I won't go near '12 rookies like Adrien Robinson, Ladarius Green or Evan Rodriguez yet, though each of them could be exciting names for the future. Instead, I'll take a swing at Cameron, whom the Browns took in the '11 draft despite the fact that the high school hoops star made all of 16 collegiate catches at USC. But you can't teach a guy to run 4.55 at 6-5 and 245 pounds. Cameron played in only eight games in his rookie year and caught six passes. But he's already submitted highlights this preseason that make him look like Jimmy Graham North. There's clutter ahead of him on Cleveland's roster in the form of Benjamin Watson and Evan Moore, but Cameron's emergence has Browns beat writers speculating that the team may cut ties with either Watson or Moore. Brandon Weeden is a rookie QB and let's just say the Cleveland passing attack hasn't been dynamic the past couple seasons, but Cameron has star potential.


Kellen Davis, TE, Chicago Bears: At age 26, Davis is the oldest player on this year's list, and he's already played four NFL seasons. Because tight end has been such a wasteland in Chicago for the past couple of seasons, folks outside the Windy City are neglecting Davis, but he's a 6-7, 267-pound monster who runs 4.58. Free from the yoke of TE-unfriendly ex-coordinator Mike Martz, Davis has a shot at becoming a major Bears red zone weapon. Remember the days when Greg Olsen was a Jay Cutler favorite? I'm not saying Davis yet has Olsen-level hands or route-running ability, but he's even bigger than the very large Olsen. Right now, Brandon Marshall gets all the fantasy pub, and rightly so, but I can't find another wideout on this roster to feel great about (Alshon Jeffery may work out well, but he's a maturity-challenged rookie, and I'm not holding my breath for '12). We've got Davis listed as our No. 32 TE and that's totally understandable, given how deep the position is. But it would be unsurprising to me if Davis winds up a top-10 TE by the end of the season.


Chris Givens, WR, St. Louis Rams: Remember the rookie year Torrey Smith had? Seven TDs (three in one memorable Week 3 game) that went for the following yardage: 74, 41, 18, 26, 38, 8 and 36. Plus, he also tied Calvin Johnson for 10th in average yards at the catch among WRs. In other words: Rookies who run ridiculously fast can sometimes produce, and despite the fact that he was drafted in the fourth round this spring (as opposed to Smith, who was an '11 second-rounder), Givens fits that bill. Anyone who watched the Rams' first preseason game saw them fire it very deep to Givens three times. The kid ran a 4.37 at this winter's combine, and while I don't figure he'll win a starting job right away, I don't consider guys like Brian Quick, Greg Salas, Danario Alexander and the other Steve Smith so great that Givens won't eventually get looks. Is a 1,000-yard season unlikely? You bet. But my guess is that he blows the lid off a few defenses this season with game-changing plays, and if those add up, he could become fantasy-relevant quickly.


Alex Green, RB, Green Bay Packers: Green tore his left ACL in Week 7 last season as a rookie playing special teams, and most of his standard-league luster wore off when the Pack signed Cedric Benson this summer. But I liked Green quite a bit as a size/speed combo guy coming out of Hawaii, and from among him, Benson and James Starks, there's little question who the most enticing athlete is. Listen, Benson is steady and he's missed only one game in the past two years. Starks, meanwhile, already looks shaky to begin the season because of a turf toe injury, while Green has reportedly shown his legs are under him by cutting well in camp. He could easily wind up as the pass-catching back in Aaron Rodgers' high-octane attack, with the possibility for more if he catches fire. Now, I'm definitely wary of RBs the first year back from a torn ACL, and if Green's workload gets heavy, I wouldn't be shocked to see the leg pulls and strains that often accompany such a return. That said, I'll nevertheless be ready to pounce if the stars align in his favor.

Jeremy Kerley, WR, New York Jets: I came close to leaving Kerley off this list, and earmarking the Dallas Cowboys' Cole Beasley instead. Whereas Kerley tore a hamstring the first day of training camp and has done very little since, undrafted rookie Beasley has been amazing from jump street and has a legit chance to play in three-WR sets for Dallas. Alas, I'm not sure that job will be worth a ton even if Miles Austin's hamstring problems prove chronic, and Beasley still has to beat out Kevin Ogletree and Andre Holmes, so he's an honorary 11th on this list. As for Kerley, it's a leap of faith to consider him relevant at this point, especially since whatever juice he might've gained last season as the Jets' Wildcat QB went out the door when Tim Tebow walked in. However, other than Santonio Holmes, there's nothing close to a proven wideout in this corps, and I can see Kerley graduating into a Davone Bess kind of role in Tony Sparano's conservative offense. No, the upside isn't exciting, but in a PPR league it's possible Kerley makes a difference later in the season.


Mohamed Sanu, WR, Cincinnati Bengals: Opposite A.J. Green, the Bengals have a mess. Will Brandon Tate win the No. 2 receiving job? Will it be Armon Binns? Will rookie Marvin Jones play a bunch? Or perhaps it'll be Sanu, another rookie, who is almost certainly the slowest person on this year's list. But speed isn't the only thing that matters. Sanu caught an incredible 115 balls in his final season at Rutgers, and is a slightly bigger version of T.J. Houshmandzadeh, another guy who didn't have much speed but made all kinds of plays. Yes, the Bengals would probably prefer to find an outside burner to take pressure off of Green, but I have to believe Sanu is already a tempting security blanket, and he already caught a red zone score in the preseason. As his first year progresses, I expect to see him on the field a bunch. Perhaps he'll be more of a PPR threat than anything else, but anyone who plays across from Green should see an awful lot of singled-up looks.

Michael Smith, RB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers: When LeGarrette Blount took a big hit to his leg in Tampa's second preseason game, Smith almost had to come off this list. I assumed Blount's injury might be catastrophic, which would've boosted rookie Doug Martin into an unquestioned starter role and promoted Smith to the No. 2 spot. Fortunately for Blount, he apparently emerged without serious injury, and the rookie Smith can slink back down to third string. But here's the thing: I kind of believe Smith would've been able to handle to job. I'd be lying if I said I saw tons of film on him (or Robert Turbin) at Utah State, but what I can find online is interesting. Turbin dominated carries (249 carries to 114 last season), but Smith averaged 7.9 yards per carry and scored 11 total TDs, and is no wilting violet at 209 pounds. What's most interesting is that Smith ran a 4.33 40 at his pro day. The Bucs have reportedly been pleased with everything about him except his pass protection; his power/speed combo has allowed him to produce a couple of nice runs late in preseason games, too. In this case, it'll absolutely take an injury (or two), but Smith has the physical package to catch lightning in a bottle.


Rod Streater, WR, Oakland Raiders. I guess I'm going back to the Raiders rookie wideout well. Denarius Moore immediately stood out in last summer's training camp and it carried over into a 618-yard, six-total-TD season. As Moore and Darrius Heyward-Bey emerge into legit fantasy threats, there's less and less room for a guy like Streater -- an undrafted rookie out of Temple -- to have an impact. But boy, he's been really good. Oakland beat reporters heaped praise on him throughout camp, and in two preseason games (in which he didn't face only garbage-time defenses), Streater has 13 catches for 109 yards. Meanwhile, Moore hasn't seen the field much because of a lingering hamstring injury and Jacoby Ford, the erstwhile No. 3 WR, is battling an injury in the same foot that sidelined him last season. The depth chart also features more-heralded rookie Juron Criner, but current wisdom has it that Streater has surpassed Criner. Will he be the Raiders' No. 3? Will Moore's injury lead to Streater starting? He's big and fast, like any Oakland WR should be. Don't draft him (don't draft any of these guys!), but remember the name.
 
HacheMan

HacheMan

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Top mid-round fantasy values
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Eric Karabell

Ask 10 fantasy football owners how they interpret the term "mid-round value" and there might be 10 different answers. Drafts are all about value, after all, but not all picks will fit the term. For example, Houston Texans running back Arian Foster and Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers are hardly value picks. They're at the top of the draft. Similarly, taking the third Washington Redskins running back in the 13th round or any defense doesn't fit the bill. The middle rounds are where the steals come in, and whether your goal is to hit the jackpot with upside or to find a consistent statistical provider, or just to fill a starting spot or seek insurance for someone else, the middle rounds are critical.


So how do we define those rounds? I think the first five rounds need not apply; in general most teams will have filled three or four running back/wide receiver slots by then, perhaps a quarterback or one of the two record-setting tight ends. Round 6 seems like a good starting point for the middle rounds, ending in, say, the 10th round. There are 16 rounds in an ESPN standard draft. Use all picks wisely, but here we're focusing on the mid-round values.


Several names jump right off the page for me, but let's divide by position for further clarity.

<offer></offer>

Quarterback: There is tremendous value to be had after the 50th pick -- or when the sixth round begins -- because nine quarterbacks are off the board by then, at least according to ESPN's live draft results. In standard leagues there are 10 teams, so the other quarterbacks fall. In pretty much all the mocks I've done and even a few of my "real" drafts, I've been the last one to take a quarterback, and it's been Tony Romo, Peyton Manning, Philip Rivers, Matt Ryan or Ben Roethlisberger. Frankly, each is a tremendous value in the middle rounds. Over the past four seasons, Rivers has averaged 4,399 passing yards and 30 touchdowns, but because he threw a lot of interceptions last season and people think that's the new norm his value has dropped precipitously. I'll take him in the sixth round every time.


Top QB mid-round value: Rivers, Ryan.

Running back: This position is so maddening this season, with few reliable options after pretty much the first round, that it's considerably tougher to find mid-round value. The first running backs in the sixth round in ADP are Willis McGahee, Reggie Bush and BenJarvus Green-Ellis. Yawn. I suppose each could flirt with top-10 status, but behind health and production concerns I don't have any of them in my top 20. It's easy to be down on Roy Helu, who might not play much, or Shonn Greene, who might not score much, but what about Stevan Ridley and Jonathan Stewart? Yes, each could be part of a serious timeshare, but they bring the upside we look for in mid-round choices. Ridley hasn't had an opportunity for big-time touches before. Stewart has, and he was terrific in 2009.


I also like the value for Peyton Hillis, Kevin Smith and Donald Brown a bit later. Again, there is no shortage of questions here, but Hillis was certainly successful two seasons ago, and I like the fact the Chiefs plan to run, run and run some more. Jamaal Charles is the home run hitter but is also coming off an ACL tear, and the difference in value here for the two Chiefs is stark. I rank Hillis considerably better than his average draft position. Smith's issue is durability, because it sure seems like he's the last man standing in Detroit, at least initially. As for the Indianapolis Colts, I think Andrew Luck and Brown are becoming underrated. This team is going to score points. Perhaps they'll lose double-digit games because they allow 35 points per contest, but this is potentially very good for fantasy owners. Brown will see a rise in receptions and his job is secure.


Top RB mid-round value: Ridley, Stewart, Hillis, D. Brown.


Wide receiver: Where do we begin? If ever there was a season in which a fantasy owner could grab a top-flight option at this position and then wait a few rounds to find sleepers, this is it. The talent at wide receiver in the sixth round is palpable, laced with former top-10 options. Miles Austin and Dwayne Bowe have done it before, so have Vincent Jackson and DeSean Jackson. There's value all over the place at wide receiver, but it kind of ends after Antonio Brown, Steve Johnson and others in the seventh round.
Someone other than Antonio Gates will need to catch Rivers' passes in San Diego, so it's possible Robert Meachem and Malcom Floyd provide value. I like Baltimore Ravens speedster Torrey Smith more than most, but where I rank him, it's hard to extract much value. He's a ninth-rounder in ADP, so that's better. Same goes with Titus Young of the Detroit Lions. I guess I'm not so concerned with value if I really like the player. So what if someone gripes on the league message board I took Young three rounds too early? We shall see by December.

Ultimately, whether it really is Jake Locker or Matt Hasselbeck quarterbacking the Tennessee Titans, the best values I see in the middle rounds at wide receiver are Kenny Britt and Nate Washington. Britt has top-5 potential. He can be that good. He also can't stay healthy or out of trouble, but the talent is just ridiculous. His ranking outside of the ADP top 100 makes him a supreme value if he were to play for, say, 14 games. It's a major hedge, though, because Nate Washington topped 1,000 yards last season and if Britt weren't available, he could do it again. I rank Britt and Washington two rounds better than their ADP; there's upside with each player.


Top WR mid-round value: Bowe, V. Jackson, D. Jackson, A. Brown, S. Johnson, T. Smith, Britt, N. Washington.


Tight end: I don't see a ton of value to be had with this position. I keep waiting to get Tony Gonzalez, Fred Davis and Jacob Tamme, because the second-round guys (Rob Gronkowski, Jimmy Graham) are far more likely to bust than earn that value, and I don't like the value for where Vernon Davis and Jermichael Finley are going.



Top TE mid-round value: T. Gonzalez, F. Davis, Tamme.


Defense and kicker: There is no reason to look at these positions in the middle rounds, and that includes the mighty San Francisco 49ers defense. Just don't do it.
 
HacheMan

HacheMan

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Full list of wide receivers by tiers
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Eric Karabell

As a corollary to Tuesday's blog entry about using a tiered system to rank wide receivers, here is a further and clearer grouping at this deep position, including all the wide receivers who look worthy of being drafted (to me) in standard formats.
Let this be a reminder that we at ESPN Fantasy do care about providing what the readers/listeners/viewers want, and I personally read the Conversation below each and every blog entry, and often comment, as well. Look, everyone is entitled to their opinions, so have at it. In this case, I'd like to give the people what they want, and if you have future requests, don't be shy. I'm on Twitter @karabellespn.
Below you'll see what I feel are the separate tiers with comments when applicable. By listing each and every wide receiver, it should give a clearer take on just how interesting the tiers are for this position this season. After the player/team you'll see my wide receiver rank and overall rank in parentheses. Agree or disagree, but I think this is what you asked for. Enjoy!
<offer>Tier 1
Calvin Johnson, Detroit Lions (1st WR, 4th overall): Still the best, even with natural regression.
Tier 2
Larry Fitzgerald, Arizona Cardinals (2nd, 8th): He did just fine with the QBs last year.
Greg Jennings, Green Bay Packers (3rd, 13th): Still the team's safest WR option.
Roddy White, Atlanta Falcons (4th, 14th): Yes, even over his very popular younger colleague.
Andre Johnson, Houston Texans (5th, 15th): I'm still worried about injury, or he'd be second.
Tier 3
Wes Welker, New England Patriots (6th, 17th): Arguably second WR in PPR formats.
Mike Wallace, Pittsburgh Steelers (7th, 18th): See, he's going to play and make everyone happy.
A.J. Green, Cincinnati Bengals (8th, 19th)
Julio Jones, Atlanta Falcons (9th, 21st): Exciting talent, should keep getting better and better.
Tier 4
Brandon Marshall, Chicago Bears (10th, 27th)
Hakeem Nicks, New York Giants (11th, 33rd)
Jordy Nelson, Green Bay Packers (12th, 34th): Not the best choice in PPR formats, though.
Victor Cruz, New York Giants (13th, 35th): Ranks better if your league counts big plays.
Marques Colston, New Orleans Saints (14th, 37th)
Tier 5
Percy Harvin, Minnesota Vikings (15th, 42nd)
Steve Smith, Carolina Panthers (16th, 43rd): Some concerns things could go badly, thus this rank.
Dwayne Bowe, Kansas City Chiefs (17th, 45th)
Vincent Jackson, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (18th, 47th): Will find that this is not the Chargers' offense.
Steve Johnson, Buffalo Bills (19th, 48th)
Tier 6
Dez Bryant, Dallas Cowboys (20th, 50th): Honestly, I think Kevin Ogletree will play a lot.
Miles Austin, Dallas Cowboys (21st, 55th)
Jeremy Maclin, Philadelphia Eagles (22nd, 56th)
Tier 7

Antonio Brown, Pittsburgh Steelers (23rd, 62nd)
Brandon Lloyd, New England Patriots (24th, 66th): A tad overrated for me, thus this rank.
DeSean Jackson, Philadelphia Eagles (25th, 67th): It appears he will be trying this season.
Demaryius Thomas, Denver Broncos (26th, 69th): Well, he's not Marvin Harrison.
Tier 8
Torrey Smith, Baltimore Ravens (27th, 72nd): One of my breakout picks. Major talent.
Pierre Garcon, Washington Redskins (28th, 75th)
Eric Decker, Denver Broncos (29th, 76th)
Tier 9

Malcom Floyd, San Diego Chargers (30th, 81st)
Robert Meachem, San Diego Chargers (31st, 82nd): And Eddie Royal should matter at times.
Santonio Holmes, New York Jets (32nd, 84th): No matter the quarterback, is worth drafting.
Lance Moore, New Orleans Saints (33rd, 88th)
Michael Crabtree, San Francisco 49ers (34th, 89th)
Tier 10
Titus Young, Detroit Lions (35th, 95th): Nice sleeper but don't go too far in drafts.
Kenny Britt, Tennessee Titans (36th, 97th): Could be top-10 or barely play.
Nate Washington, Tennessee Titans (37th, 98th): Look at his 2011 stats, and watch Britt's situation.
Denarius Moore, Oakland Raiders (38th, 99th): Eventually a Raiders WR will emerge.
Anquan Boldin, Baltimore Ravens (39th, 103rd)
Sidney Rice, Seattle Seahawks (40th, 104th): Well, you don't see Terrell Owens ranked.
Darrius Heyward-Bey, Oakland Raiders (41st, 107th)
Tier 11
Mike Williams, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (42nd, 112th): Yes, I am expecting some bounce back.
Leonard Hankerson, Washington Redskins (43rd, 115th)
Laurent Robinson, Jacksonville Jaguars (44th, 116th): Should've stayed in Big D.
Mario Manningham, San Francisco 49ers (45th, 117th): Should've stayed in New Jersey.
Reggie Wayne, Indianapolis Colts (46th, 123rd)
Tier 12
Rueben Randle, New York Giants (47th, 124th): Ah, the lure of the rookies.
Justin Blackmon, Jacksonville Jaguars (48th, 125th)
Michael Floyd, Arizona Cardinals (49th, 128th)
Nate Burleson, Detroit Lions (50th, 129th)
Jonathan Baldwin, Kansas City Chiefs (51st, 130th): He's no rookie, but needs a better QB.
Brandon LaFell, Carolina Panthers (52nd, 133rd): Nice sleeper here, as well.
James Jones, Green Bay Packers (53rd, 134th)
</offer>
 
HacheMan

HacheMan

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Training Camp Winners
Over the last month, values have been shifting across the fantasy landscape. Below are 15 players shooting up draft boards:

1. Andrew Luck, QB, Colts

After completing 70 percent of his passes in training camp practices, Luck has produced 38 points on 11 possessions in the first two preseason games. Showing excellent pocket movement, pre-snap judgment and a rifle arm, Luck is knocking on the door to QB1 territory.

2. Matt Ryan, QB, Falcons

After hitting a wall in his development with conservative playcaller Mike Mularkey, Ryan is hitting his stride in Dirk Koetter’s aggressive, fast-paced offense. Ryan has started the exhibition season a red-hot 27-of-34 (79.4 percent) for 329 yards (9.7 YPA) and two touchdowns while directing the Falcons no-huddle attack.

3. Jake Locker, QB, Titans

Coordinator Chris Palmer is tailoring his variation of the “Run ‘N Shoot” offense to Locker’s strengths after the highly athletic 2011 first-rounder beat out Matt Hasselbeck for the starting job. On top of Locker’s appealing rushing potential, he’s directing an offense chock full of young playmakers.

4. DeMarco Murray, RB, Cowboys

Already emerging as a team leader while battling Dez Bryant for training camp MVP honors, Murray is locked in as the feature back in a high-scoring offense while Felix Jones continues to struggle. One of only a handful of fantasy backs with three-down ability and goal-line honors, Murray is worthy of first-round consideration.

5. Peyton Hillis, RB, Chiefs

Reunited with former coordinator Brian Daboll, Hillis has been alternating first-team snaps with Jamaal Charles throughout training camp and in preseason action. Operating as the primary red-zone back behind one of the NFL’s top offensive lines, Hillis is a threat for double-digit touchdowns and 30+ receptions.

6. Cedric Benson, RB, Packers

Presumed starter James Starks is now on the roster bubble due to a disappointing training camp and a bout with turf toe. Enter Benson, fresh off three consecutive 1,000-yard seasons and running with a chip on his shoulder. With Aaron Rodgers spreading out defenses, Benson will have plenty of open holes to exploit in Green Bay.

7. Kevin Smith, RB, Lions

An afterthought throughout the offseason, the revitalized Smith will enter the season as a three-down feature back with Jahvid Best (concussions) sidelined indefinitely and Mikel Leshoure serving a two-game suspension. Even when Leshoure returns, the more well-rounded Smith figures to remain atop the totem pole until injuries strike.

8. Evan Royster, RB, Redskins

Despite offseason proclamations that Tim Hightower would top the depth chart, Royster has spent the entire training camp running with the first-team offense. Now that Roy Helu, a more promising playmaker, is battling soreness in both Achilles’ tendons, Royster is a lock to open the season as the early-down lead back. Hightower will be limited to the pass protection specialist while regaining form in his return from ACL surgery.

9. Jacquizz Rodgers, RB, Falcons

It’s become painfully obvious that slow-footed Michael Turner is ill-suited to new coordinator Dirk Koetter’s up-tempo offense. Enter Rodgers, a screen-play specialist who should dominate passing downs with a role that continues to increase throughout the season. Rodgers is a player to target in PPR formats as a flex option.

10. Julio Jones, WR, Falcons

An unstoppable combination of speed and power, Jones exploded for 109 yards and a touchdown in just his first preseason quarter under new playcaller Dirk Koetter. The Falcons have made no secret that Jones will be the featured weapon in their more aggressive, pass-heavy offense. Following Rotoworld’s lead, Jones’ ADP has climbed to No. 2 among wide receivers.

11. Pierre Garcon, WR, Redskins

Playing Brandon Marshall’s old “X” spot in Mike Shanahan’s offense, Garcon has been Robert Griffin III’s go-to target through training camp and two preseason games. He’s the heavy favorite to lead the Redskins in receiving this year, offering sneaky upside as a fantasy WR3.

12. Reggie Wayne, WR, Colts

Wayne finished as a top-30 fantasy receiver while catching passes from Curtis Painter and Dan Orlovsky last season. Now that Austin Collie is battling concussion issues once again, Wayne is entrenched as the only reliable go-to receiver for promising rookie Andrew Luck.

13. Justin Blackmon, WR, Jaguars

Installed as the flanker (Roddy White’s old position) in Mike Mularkey’s offense, Blackmon is the focal point of the Jaguars’ quick-hitting, short-passing base offense. Billed as a run-after-catch threat on par with Hakeem Nicks, Blackmon broke tackles on all four of his receptions in his preseason debut last week.

14. Greg Olsen, TE, Panthers

Ron Rivera’s comparisons to Rob Gronkowski and Jimmy Graham aside, it’s become evident that the coaching staff plans to increase Olsen’s role following the exit of Jeremy Shockey. The two tight ends combined for 82 receptions, 995 yards and nine touchdowns a year ago.

15. Kyle Rudolph, TE, Vikings

Comparable to Rob Gronkowski from a size/speed perspective, Rudolph dominated training camp while earning Christian Ponder’s trust with a humongous catch radius. Likely to finish behind only Percy Harvin in targets this season, Rudolph is the best of the late-round breakout candidates at tight end.
 
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