NFL Fantasy News 2012

[HacheMan]

Mock auction draft analysis

By Jim McCormick | Special to ESPN.com

Reality shows focusing on various auctions, from delinquent storage lockers to antiques unearthed in granddad's attic, are all the rage these days. The natural drama created in a bidding war seems to be a key element to the popularity of the genre, and auction fantasy drafts are no exception. Instead of being married to a specific draft order, which in many ways limits the scope of talents one can acquire in a traditional "snake" draft, the auction format allows for you to acquire Ray Rice or Aaron Rodgers -- or even both if you spend the coin. You can go after the players you value most or seek to drive up prices for your competition with a good deal of risk inherent in every bid. Auctions can take a long time, but they also move very fast when the bidding intensifies. If you have been in the same league for a long time, or are in the process of starting a new tradition, keep an open mind and give the auction format a shot as a means to shaking up how rosters are assembled.


One thing to keep in mind as you read about this particular mock auction is that each auction is unique, and the pricing and values you'll find below are not to be held as a baseline for any other auction, but rather as an example of how each auction results in a specific market for talent unfolding. If we conducted another auction today, it's just as likely that Cam Newton would go for $34 and the buying behavior at any given position could vary drastically, given any number of in-draft influences.


Joining me in this 10-team standard league mock were Eric Karabell, KC Joyner, Tristan Cockcroft, Stephania Bell, Brian Gramling, James Quintong, Shawn Cwalinski, Christopher Harris and Dave Hunter.


Below, you will see each owner's roster, followed by an explanation of how he/she approached the auction.


TEAM QUINTONG

<table><thead><tr><th> SLOT </th><th> Player, Team, Pos </th><th> Salary </th><th> Nominated </th></tr><tbody><tr class="last"><td> QB </td><td> Peyton Manning, Den QB </td><td> $16 </td><td> 21 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> RB </td><td> Chris Johnson, Ten RB </td><td> $58 </td><td> 9 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> RB </td><td> Steven Jackson, StL RB </td><td> $30 </td><td> 44 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> WR </td><td> A.J. Green, Cin WR </td><td> $30 </td><td> 51 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> WR </td><td> Victor Cruz, NYG WR </td><td> $21 </td><td> 56 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> TE </td><td> Jermichael Finley, GB TE </td><td> $10 </td><td> 60 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> FLEX </td><td> Beanie Wells, Ari RB </td><td> $6 </td><td> 72 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> D/ST </td><td> New York Jets D/ST </td><td> $1 </td><td> 41 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> K </td><td> Mason Crosby, GB K </td><td> $1 </td><td> 91 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> Bench </td><td> Steve Smith, Car WR </td><td> $16 </td><td> 75 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> Bench </td><td> Shonn Greene, NYJ RB </td><td> $3 </td><td> 101 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> Bench </td><td> Isaiah Pead, StL RB </td><td> $1 </td><td> 120 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> Bench </td><td> Robert Griffin III, Wsh QB </td><td> $2 </td><td> 123 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> Bench </td><td> Jason Witten, Dal TE </td><td> $2 </td><td> 132 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> Bench </td><td> Santonio Holmes, NYJ WR </td><td> $1 </td><td> 136 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> Bench </td><td> Michael Crabtree, SF WR </td><td> $2 </td><td> 141 </td></tr></tbody></table>



Did you have a nomination strategy in the auction?



I don't think I had a real strategy for nominating players, although from pick to pick, I did consider throwing out "intriguing" players to get a feel for the market for guys, whether I wanted them or not. On the other hand, I think I did try to hold back on nominating guys like Eric Decker, but got burned when I ran out of money by the time they were going for bargain prices.


What do you feel was your best value purchase in this auction? Any investment where you might not have gotten ideal value?


Initially, I thought my $16 on Peyton Manning was a solid value, given what the market was bearing for quarterbacks at that time. But then when Eli went for a couple of dollars less and players like Cam Newton went for not much more, then I thought it might've been an overspend. The QB market, in particular, had a strange drop-off in values as the auction went along.


What advice would you give to someone heading into his/her first auction draft?


Auctions are very much unlike regular drafts in that values can shift so dramatically in just a matter of minutes. It's good to try to budget out money by position and trying to fill accordingly, as opposed to putting a hard price tag on particular players you want. It's also good to be patient in auction drafts. Don't get caught up in having to make a move because you haven't made one in a while.


Could you envision using both your tight ends given the new flex eligibility?


I definitely could use both if Witten ends up healthy; he was worth the $2 risk late in the draft, especially with the ability to play both tight ends in a week.


TEAM McCORMICK

<table><thead><tr><th> SLOT </th><th> Player, Team, Pos </th><th> Salary </th><th> Nominated </th></tr><tbody><tr class="last"><td> QB </td><td> Drew Brees, NO QB </td><td> $45 </td><td> 8 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> RB </td><td> Ryan Mathews, SD RB </td><td> $28 </td><td> 26 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> RB </td><td> Fred Jackson, Buf RB </td><td> $25 </td><td> 59 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> WR </td><td> Julio Jones, Atl WR </td><td> $30 </td><td> 33 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> WR </td><td> Brandon Lloyd, NE WR </td><td> $19 </td><td> 55 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> TE </td><td> Aaron Hernandez, NE TE </td><td> $9 </td><td> 64 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> FLEX </td><td> Peyton Hillis, KC RB </td><td> $15 </td><td> 78 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> D/ST </td><td> Buffalo Bills D/ST </td><td> $5 </td><td> 149 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> K </td><td> Matt Prater, Den K </td><td> $1 </td><td> 153 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> Bench </td><td> Miles Austin, Dal WR </td><td> $9 </td><td> 85 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> Bench </td><td> Rashard Mendenhall, Pit RB </td><td> $2 </td><td> 109 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> Bench </td><td> Malcom Floyd, SD WR </td><td> $3 </td><td> 114 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> Bench </td><td> Reggie Wayne, Ind WR </td><td> $3 </td><td> 129 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> Bench </td><td> C.J. Spiller, Buf RB </td><td> $1 </td><td> 130 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> Bench </td><td> Isaac Redman, Pit RB </td><td> $3 </td><td> 135 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> Bench </td><td> Alex Green, GB RB </td><td> $1 </td><td> 143 </td></tr></tbody></table>



My nomination strategy: For the first several times I'm up, I tend to nominate players that I feel will go for considerable coin but that I don't necessarily have strong interest in. This isn't to say I won't get into the bidding if the price is right, but I do generally like to see others spend so I can reserve my budget for the talents I really want to invest in. Later in the draft, I prefer to nominate players I specifically want (like C.J. Spiller in this auction, in order to secure the Buffalo backfield).


What was my best value purchase in this draft? Any investment where I might not have gotten ideal value?


I felt good about landing some guys with deflated value, given their current injury concerns, like Miles Austin and Isaac Redman. I also found that the Buffalo backs were a reasonable buy at $26 total, which was really possible, considering how late Spiller was nominated. In retrospect, it's certainly possible that I didn't net great value on Drew Brees given how precipitously the market for arms dropped once a few big buys at the position were made. But if you are going to be bold and spend big, make it a proven elite like Brees. I figured there would be discounts down the line at the position, but didn't envision Cam Newton, Tony Romo and Matt Ryan going as such bargains. Peyton Hillis was certainly a bullish buy, but I don't really regret it since he's a player I feel very strongly about heading into the season. I am content with the overall balance on my roster, but feel that having gone a few extra bucks here and there could have boosted its potential.


What advice would I give to someone heading into his/her first auction draft?


I'd love to espouse some awesome tenet of auction strategy, but I think that being dually flexible and prepared is a wise approach. Have a strong grasp on pricing, but don't overcomplicate the process with too many restrictions or feeling bound to specific buying strategies; each auction is so fluid and unique that you might cost yourself opportunity if you play too close to a particular strategy. One thing I can definitely offer from this auction in particular is to make sure you don't leave excess money in your coffer late when it's dollar-menu time; I threw $5 on the Bills' defense (surely a $1 commodity) late in the draft if only to spend up my obtuse overage. I would rather have spent that extra dough on upside commodities like Eric Decker or Kevin Smith. But then again, it's obvious I made this egregious budgeting error as a helpful lesson for the reader -- or something like that.


TEAM CWALINSKI

<table><thead><tr><th> SLOT </th><th> Player, Team, Pos </th><th> Salary </th><th> Nominated </th></tr><tbody><tr class="last"><td> QB </td><td> Michael Vick, Phi QB </td><td> $18 </td><td> 31 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> RB </td><td> Darren McFadden, Oak RB </td><td> $36 </td><td> 20 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> RB </td><td> BenJarvus Green-Ellis, Cin RB </td><td> $16 </td><td> 35 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> WR </td><td> Brandon Marshall, Chi WR </td><td> $26 </td><td> 57 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> WR </td><td> Percy Harvin, Min WR </td><td> $18 </td><td> 67 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> TE </td><td> Jacob Tamme, Den TE </td><td> $4 </td><td> 27 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> FLEX </td><td> Doug Martin, TB RB </td><td> $14 </td><td> 47 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> D/ST </td><td> Baltimore Ravens D/ST </td><td> $2 </td><td> 28 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> K </td><td> Stephen Gostkowski, NE K </td><td> $1 </td><td> 17 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> Bench </td><td> Trent Richardson, Cle RB </td><td> $20 </td><td> 54 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> Bench </td><td> Mark Ingram, NO RB </td><td> $8 </td><td> 58 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> Bench </td><td> Demaryius Thomas, Den WR </td><td> $14 </td><td> 77 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> Bench </td><td> Tim Hightower, Wsh RB </td><td> $2 </td><td> 89 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> Bench </td><td> Anquan Boldin, Bal WR </td><td> $3 </td><td> 102 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> Bench </td><td> Donald Brown, Ind RB </td><td> $6 </td><td> 105 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> Bench </td><td> DeSean Jackson, Phi WR </td><td> $12 </td><td> 107 </td></tr></tbody></table>




Did you have a nomination strategy?


My nomination strategy is to vary my nomination strategy. In this auction, I nominated a couple of players I did not want early to get some money off the board, then players I would take if the price was right. At the end of the auction, I was nominating people I wanted because I had a good amount of money left.


What advice would you give to someone heading into his/her first auction draft?


Be patient and stick to your values. It is tempting to pay a little extra to get players early, but you are going to find value if you are patient. I was the last person to get a player in this auction but the first to finish. Also, you need to be flexible in any sort of draft. Oh, and if you draft Vick, make sure you get a backup QB and not bid $3 on Anquan Boldin for no reason near the end of your auction.


You have been in on Doug Martin often in our drafts this summer. What's your take on his role and potential for this season?


Martin is going to be the Buccaneers' starting running back. Blount is not going away, but I see Martin getting at least two-thirds of the touches this season and could see him being at three-quarters by the end of the season.


TEAM HARRIS

<table><thead><tr><th> SLOT </th><th> Player, Team, Pos </th><th> Salary </th><th> Nominated </th></tr><tbody><tr class="last"><td> QB </td><td> Cam Newton, Car QB </td><td> $18 </td><td> 43 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> RB </td><td> Maurice Jones-Drew, Jac RB </td><td> $43 </td><td> 5 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> RB </td><td> Frank Gore, SF RB </td><td> $25 </td><td> 61 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> WR </td><td> Greg Jennings, GB WR </td><td> $38 </td><td> 42 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> WR </td><td> Vincent Jackson, TB WR </td><td> $12 </td><td> 97 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> TE </td><td> Rob Gronkowski, NE TE </td><td> $33 </td><td> 23 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> FLEX </td><td> Steve Johnson, Buf WR </td><td> $7 </td><td> 95 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> D/ST </td><td> Seattle Seahawks D/ST </td><td> $1 </td><td> 110 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> K </td><td> Sebastian Janikowski, Oak K </td><td> $1 </td><td> 100 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> Bench </td><td> Titus Young, Det WR </td><td> $8 </td><td> 53 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> Bench </td><td> Toby Gerhart, Min RB </td><td> $9 </td><td> 68 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> Bench </td><td> Leonard Hankerson, Wsh WR </td><td> $1 </td><td> 142 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> Bench </td><td> Kendall Hunter, SF RB </td><td> $1 </td><td> 148 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> Bench </td><td> Bernard Scott, Cin RB </td><td> $1 </td><td> 152 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> Bench </td><td> Jonathan Dwyer, Pit RB </td><td> $1 </td><td> 156 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> Bench </td><td> Josh Freeman, TB QB </td><td> $1 </td><td> 159 </td></tr></tbody></table>



What do you feel was your best value purchase in this draft? Any investment where you might not have gotten ideal value?


Cam Newton, no question, for $18. That was simply lucky. Newton didn't get thrown until seven teams already had QBs, so the price wound up being amazing. Certainly one could argue $43 for MJD could be a disaster, but I still think he plays, so compared to Ray Rice for $68, I'll live with it. I'll say Titus Young for $8 is a dramatic overspend. I just had to have him.


What advice would you give to someone heading into his/her first auction draft?


Try not to freak out. Auctions require more concentration than snake drafts, and much more patience. Everyone is as skittish as you are about how fast scarcity seems to become an issue. Be flexible, try not to spend all your money right away and then have a good list of potential $1 players for the end.


What is your take on MJD's situation for those drafting while he's still holding out?


When Adam Schefter says he expects the holdout to go into the regular season, it gives me great pause. But especially in an auction, I still think there's great value there, unless you think Jones-Drew is holding out nine weeks. I got him at a one-third discount, so as long as he plays sometime in September, I'll be good. If not, I made a big, big mistake!


TEAM JOYNER

<table><thead><tr><th> SLOT </th><th> Player, Team, Pos </th><th> Salary </th><th> Nominated </th></tr><tbody><tr class="last"><td> QB </td><td> Matthew Stafford, Det QB </td><td> $35 </td><td> 4 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> RB </td><td> Darren Sproles, NO RB </td><td> $24 </td><td> 39 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> RB </td><td> Michael Turner, Atl RB </td><td> $22 </td><td> 49 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> WR </td><td> Mike Wallace, Pit WR </td><td> $26 </td><td> 24 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> WR </td><td> Hakeem Nicks, NYG WR </td><td> $25 </td><td> 25 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> TE </td><td> Antonio Gates, SD TE </td><td> $17 </td><td> 40 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> FLEX </td><td> Reggie Bush, Mia RB </td><td> $15 </td><td> 69 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> D/ST </td><td> Chicago Bears D/ST </td><td> $3 </td><td> 32 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> K </td><td> Dan Bailey, Dal K </td><td> $1 </td><td> 92 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> Bench </td><td> Brandon LaFell, Car WR </td><td> $4 </td><td> 73 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> Bench </td><td> Kenny Britt, Ten WR </td><td> $5 </td><td> 82 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> Bench </td><td> LeGarrette Blount, TB RB </td><td> $3 </td><td> 99 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> Bench </td><td> Jared Cook, Ten TE </td><td> $3 </td><td> 103 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> Bench </td><td> Nate Washington, Ten WR </td><td> $3 </td><td> 108 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> Bench </td><td> Torrey Smith, Bal WR </td><td> $3 </td><td> 119 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> Bench </td><td> Matt Schaub, Hou QB </td><td> $11 </td><td> 121 </td></tr></tbody></table>




What do you feel was your best value purchase in this draft? Any investment where you might not have gotten ideal value?


Best value would have been Gates at $17. Now that he is healthy, he could have as good a season as Gronkowski or Graham and he cost a whole lot less.


What advice would you give to someone heading into his/her first auction draft?


Use the Insider draft tool. It is very helpful in determining which players are good values and which ones cost too much. In general, the strategy here is to build quality depth. Paying big bucks for a few great players can work, but I'd rather play the percentages and build a team that is solid from top to bottom.


Do you think there is some strong value in Gates this year?


That he could post six double-digit fantasy point games in 13 starts, rack up a 7.6 short-pass YPA and an 11.1 vertical YPA (ninth-best among tight ends with 30 or more vertical targets) -- all while being hampered by injuries and Philip Rivers' hot/cold performances -- speaks volumes for how good he still can be. The scouting eye basically agreed with the metric eye, as it said that Gates looked like his old self at times. Eric Weddle's recent comment that Gates is back to his elite form says we could be seeing one more dominant year from the former leader of the pack.


TEAM BELL

<table><thead><tr><th> SLOT </th><th> Player, Team, Pos </th><th> Salary </th><th> Nominated </th></tr><tbody><tr class="last"><td> QB </td><td> Aaron Rodgers, GB QB </td><td> $66 </td><td> 14 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> RB </td><td> Ray Rice, Bal RB </td><td> $68 </td><td> 2 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> RB </td><td> Rashad Jennings, Jac RB </td><td> $7 </td><td> 63 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> WR </td><td> Marques Colston, NO WR </td><td> $16 </td><td> 76 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> WR </td><td> Antonio Brown, Pit WR </td><td> $13 </td><td> 106 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> TE </td><td> Brandon Pettigrew, Det TE </td><td> $1 </td><td> 115 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> FLEX </td><td> Cedric Benson, GB RB </td><td> $5 </td><td> 90 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> D/ST </td><td> San Francisco 49ers D/ST </td><td> $5 </td><td> 7 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> K </td><td> Rob Bironas, Ten K </td><td> $1 </td><td> 144 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> Bench </td><td> Ben Roethlisberger, Pit QB </td><td> $2 </td><td> 111 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> Bench </td><td> Jonathan Stewart, Car RB </td><td> $3 </td><td> 112 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> Bench </td><td> Eric Decker, Den WR </td><td> $5 </td><td> 113 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> Bench </td><td> David Wilson, NYG RB </td><td> $1 </td><td> 124 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> Bench </td><td> Ryan Williams, Ari RB </td><td> $3 </td><td> 127 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> Bench </td><td> Randy Moss, SF WR </td><td> $1 </td><td> 131 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> Bench </td><td> Rod Streater, Oak WR </td><td> $1 </td><td> 138 </td></tr></tbody></table>




Did you have a nomination strategy?


I tried a few different techniques. Nominating players I didn't necessarily want (figure I have to at least be willing to part with a $1). The only time I nominated guys I was targeting was in the late rounds for sleepers where some had already spent all their money and I figured I had a good chance. After my big-money spends, I set price limits on guys I was eyeing. In other words, I told myself I can bid but the cutoff is "X" and then I could live with that.


What advice would you give to someone heading into his/her first auction draft?


Be willing to take some chances. Get players you want. In our group, there was a lot of chatter as the QBs went and then some people disappointed in how much they paid. I think it helps to have an idea going in of a handful of players you'd be willing to pay big for, and then have a sense of how much you can spend to allow a reasonable budget for the remaining slots.


You acquired two elites in Rice and Rodgers and then had to balance out your roster with a series of cheaper players. Do you prefer using the majority of your money on a handful of "sure things" and then seeking out upside players the rest of the way?


I normally wouldn't spend that much on two players back to back, so I surprised myself a bit. My thinking was that I felt I could really get a couple of huge weekly difference-makers up front and then shop smartly for the remainder of the draft. I knew I had a couple of targets (like Rod Streater) that would come to me for $1. I targeted a couple players who I thought I could pay relatively little for who might serve me well for a few weeks as the team story lines played out.


TEAM HUNTER

<table><thead><tr><th> SLOT </th><th> Player, Team, Pos </th><th> Salary </th><th> Nominated </th></tr><tbody><tr class="last"><td> QB </td><td> Matt Ryan, Atl QB </td><td> $8 </td><td> 48 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> RB </td><td> Marshawn Lynch, Sea RB </td><td> $35 </td><td> 10 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> RB </td><td> Matt Forte, Chi RB </td><td> $43 </td><td> 12 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> WR </td><td> Andre Johnson, Hou WR </td><td> $35 </td><td> 15 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> WR </td><td> Roddy White, Atl WR </td><td> $31 </td><td> 36 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> TE </td><td> Jimmy Graham, NO TE </td><td> $30 </td><td> 30 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> FLEX </td><td> Kevin Smith, Det RB </td><td> $6 </td><td> 88 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> D/ST </td><td> Pittsburgh Steelers D/ST </td><td> $1 </td><td> 38 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> K </td><td> Alex Henery, Phi K </td><td> $1 </td><td> 18 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> Bench </td><td> Michael Bush, Chi RB </td><td> $3 </td><td> 93 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> Bench </td><td> Mike Goodson, Oak RB </td><td> $1 </td><td> 98 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> Bench </td><td> Justin Blackmon, Jac WR </td><td> $1 </td><td> 117 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> Bench </td><td> Darrius Heyward-Bey, Oak WR </td><td> $2 </td><td> 126 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> Bench </td><td> Daniel Thomas, Mia RB </td><td> $1 </td><td> 133 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> Bench </td><td> Jay Cutler, Chi QB </td><td> $1 </td><td> 140 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> Bench </td><td> James Starks, GB RB </td><td> $1 </td><td> 146 </td></tr></tbody></table>



Did you have a nomination strategy?


I usually nominate players that I don't want rather than those I want. I don't want anyone knowing my plans if I can help it.


What advice would you give to someone heading into his/her first auction draft?


Stay patient, but don't be afraid to spend your money early either. In other words, be flexible in your draft approach. An auction, more than any other draft setting, requires you to have a few differing strategies at the ready. Get in on the bidding right away, even if you're just driving up the price on a player you don't want. Look for values and never get caught with money on the table.


You were in the bidding for Rodgers but ended up landing Matt Ryan and Jay Cutler for a combined $9. Do you think your team ended up stronger on account of having more money for skill players versus the price for Rodgers?


Definitely. When I first started bidding on Rodgers, there was no doubt that I wanted him. But after a certain point, I didn't want that much of my budget locked up at QB, especially with the values found at the position year after year in an auction setting. Toward the end of my Rodgers bids, I was just driving the price up on Stephania. I'm lucky things didn't backfire on me, otherwise I would've gone with a stars-and-scrubs approach instead of the value-driven team I ended up with.


TEAM COCKCROFT

<table><thead><tr><th> SLOT </th><th> Player, Team, Pos </th><th> Salary </th><th> Nominated </th></tr><tbody><tr class="last"><td> QB </td><td> Eli Manning, NYG QB </td><td> $14 </td><td> 34 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> RB </td><td> Adrian Peterson, Min RB </td><td> $27 </td><td> 11 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> RB </td><td> Jamaal Charles, KC RB </td><td> $33 </td><td> 45 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> WR </td><td> Larry Fitzgerald, Ari WR </td><td> $37 </td><td> 16 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> WR </td><td> Jeremy Maclin, Phi WR </td><td> $10 </td><td> 81 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> TE </td><td> Fred Davis, Wsh TE </td><td> $4 </td><td> 80 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> FLEX </td><td> DeMarco Murray, Dal RB </td><td> $31 </td><td> 46 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> D/ST </td><td> Houston Texans D/ST </td><td> $2 </td><td> 13 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> K </td><td> David Akers, SF K </td><td> $1 </td><td> 3 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> Bench </td><td> Jacquizz Rodgers, Atl RB </td><td> $1 </td><td> 83 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> Bench </td><td> Philip Rivers, SD QB </td><td> $7 </td><td> 87 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> Bench </td><td> Dwayne Bowe, KC WR </td><td> $14 </td><td> 94 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> Bench </td><td> Stevan Ridley, NE RB </td><td> $9 </td><td> 104 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> Bench </td><td> Pierre Garcon, Wsh WR </td><td> $4 </td><td> 116 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> Bench </td><td> Denarius Moore, Oak WR </td><td> $3 </td><td> 122 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> Bench </td><td> DeAngelo Williams, Car RB </td><td> $3 </td><td> 128 </td></tr></tbody></table>




Did you have a nomination strategy?


My auction strategy is readily available in the Draft Kit and I followed that to a T. But the long and short is what I said in the draft room: Fill the headache positions first, that way you get who you want at kicker and D/ST, and if you get outbid, just chuckle a bit because you cost someone a foolish dollar.


What do you feel was your best value purchase in this draft? Any investment where you might not have gotten ideal value?


Eli was by far and away my best buy of the night, and if anyone in the room excluded him from a top-five bargains list, I'd think them nuts. We were, as a whole, far too conservative with our QB bidding. I get the whole argument about the ninth and 10th QBs being the ones swept under the carpet, sliding in as discounts. Sure, but that's Matt Ryan/Philip Rivers territory, not Manning, whom I can't imagine many people ranking lower than seventh at the position (and I have him fifth). Heck, Cam Newton was a flat-out steal as well.


What advice would you give to someone heading into his/her first auction draft?


Be prepared. That's not small talk either. If you plan to come to the table with a magazine's price sheet or no detailed price sheet broken down by position at all, you'll be the lamb for the feast. Be detailed. Be reserved. Show 'em you've got the composure of a seasoned vet. Then take 'em all by surprise.


TEAM GRAMLING

<table><thead><tr><th> SLOT </th><th> Player, Team, Pos </th><th> Salary </th><th> Nominated </th></tr><tbody><tr class="last"><td> QB </td><td> Tom Brady, NE QB </td><td> $49 </td><td> 22 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> RB </td><td> Arian Foster, Hou RB </td><td> $63 </td><td> 1 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> RB </td><td> Ben Tate, Hou RB </td><td> $9 </td><td> 37 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> WR </td><td> Jordy Nelson, GB WR </td><td> $30 </td><td> 52 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> WR </td><td> Robert Meachem, SD WR </td><td> $1 </td><td> 125 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> TE </td><td> Vernon Davis, SF TE </td><td> $18 </td><td> 50 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> FLEX </td><td> Willis McGahee, Den RB </td><td> $16 </td><td> 65 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> D/ST </td><td> Green Bay Packers D/ST </td><td> $1 </td><td> 86 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> K </td><td> Garrett Hartley, NO K </td><td> $1 </td><td> 96 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> Bench </td><td> Shane Vereen, NE RB </td><td> $5 </td><td> 84 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> Bench </td><td> Jahvid Best, Det RB </td><td> $2 </td><td> 137 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> Bench </td><td> Lance Moore, NO WR </td><td> $1 </td><td> 139 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> Bench </td><td> Felix Jones, Dal RB </td><td> $1 </td><td> 145 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> Bench </td><td> Michael Floyd, Ari WR </td><td> $1 </td><td> 150 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> Bench </td><td> Carson Palmer, Oak QB </td><td> $1 </td><td> 154 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> Bench </td><td> Coby Fleener, Ind TE </td><td> $1 </td><td> 157 </td></tr></tbody></table>



Did you have a nomination strategy?



My basic strategy is to nominate the best player available to force fellow owners to spend as much money as possible. That also allows for a greater chance of a keeper or low-dollar steal in the later rounds of the nomination stage. I also like the strategy of bidding on top kickers and defenses early, since the most you'll likely pay for that bid is $3.


What advice would you give to someone heading into his/her first auction draft?


My advice to auction drafters would be to know the depth at each position and be patient. There were a ton of great deals in the 80th to 120th players nominated, and I just didn't have enough money to bid on these players.


You went after Vernon Davis. Do you think his production could improve given the added weapons in the 49ers' passing game?


I think Davis' playoff performance (10 catches, 292 yards, 4 TDs in two games) shows that he's not far away from the two tight end studs, "Gronk" and Graham. He will have a better understanding of Jim Harbaugh's offense this year, and I think the San Fran wide receiver additions simply create more space for Davis to roam. However, Quintong spent $12 total on Finley and Witten, who could both be just as productive as my $18 on Davis this year.


TEAM KARABELL

<table><thead><tr><th> SLOT </th><th> Player, Team, Pos </th><th> Salary </th><th> Nominated </th></tr><tbody><tr class="last"><td> QB </td><td> Tony Romo, Dal QB </td><td> $9 </td><td> 62 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> RB </td><td> LeSean McCoy, Phi RB </td><td> $60 </td><td> 6 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> RB </td><td> Ahmad Bradshaw, NYG RB </td><td> $18 </td><td> 66 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> WR </td><td> Calvin Johnson, Det WR </td><td> $53 </td><td> 19 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> WR </td><td> Wes Welker, NE WR </td><td> $28 </td><td> 29 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> TE </td><td> Tony Gonzalez, Atl TE </td><td> $3 </td><td> 70 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> FLEX </td><td> Dez Bryant, Dal WR </td><td> $15 </td><td> 71 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> D/ST </td><td> Philadelphia Eagles D/ST </td><td> $1 </td><td> 79 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> K </td><td> Robbie Gould, Chi K </td><td> $1 </td><td> 160 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> Bench </td><td> Roy Helu, Wsh RB </td><td> $6 </td><td> 74 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> Bench </td><td> Evan Royster, Wsh RB </td><td> $1 </td><td> 118 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> Bench </td><td> Pierre Thomas, NO RB </td><td> $1 </td><td> 134 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> Bench </td><td> Kendall Wright, Ten WR </td><td> $1 </td><td> 147 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> Bench </td><td> Sidney Rice, Sea WR </td><td> $1 </td><td> 151 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> Bench </td><td> Mike Williams, TB WR </td><td> $1 </td><td> 155 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> Bench </td><td> Tim Tebow, NYJ QB </td><td> $1 </td><td> 158 </td></tr></tbody></table>



Did you have a nomination strategy?


In general, I was trying to get money off the board in the first two hours of the auction, and if the price was right I'd aim to get the running back or wide receiver I nominated. I knew I was waiting on quarterback and tight end. Of course, later on a number of RB sleepers I brought up went for $2, so that didn't work either.


What do you feel was your best value purchase in this draft? Any investment where you might not have gotten ideal value?


The quarterback prices were a bit crazy early on, and I knew I could wait and get a guy I view as a safe starter for less than $10. I did, with Tony Romo. Mission accomplished. It allowed me to spend a lot on running backs and wide receivers. Same goes at tight end; I didn't necessarily target Tony Gonzalez, but $3 is awesome. I doubt Rob Gronkowski will be 11 times better. I overspent on Dez Bryant, relative to what wide receivers went for later, but $15 isn't awful.


What advice would you give to someone heading into his/her first auction draft?


The best advice is to get a balanced team. Leaving any auction with only one decent running back, or having four starting wide receivers for three spots is poor allocation of funds. Don't fall in love with any players, but go the extra buck or two if it feels right, then adjust on the fly. I never say I'll spend precisely this much on any player or position.


Do you find some value in the Redskins backfield given how little confidence and assurance fantasy managers might have in the scenario heading into the season?


I'm not much of a fan of Helu or Royster, and I actually brought up Tim Hightower for bid as well but couldn't get him. I wouldn't call the Redskins backfield a place of value, but it's desperation. Someone has to get the touches. Watch it end up being someone that's not even on their current roster. I will say that Helu for $6 is incredibly low in case he is the guy, which is certainly possible. I would not have spent much more, but if Mike Shanahan just says the right words this week, that's a potential $20 player.

 

[HacheMan]

Underrated 2012 fantasy WRs

Julio Jones, Brandon Lloyd among fantasy WRs being drafted too low


By KC Joyner | ESPN Insider

The primary trends of this fantasy football draft season have angled toward increased interest in quarterbacks and decreased interest in running backs in the early rounds.


That mindset has led to value options among fantasy football ball carriers and passers, but hasn't seemed to impact wide receivers in the early rounds, as there are only six wideouts being selected in the first 23 picks on average in ESPN draft rooms.

The reason for this is fantasy owners rightfully believe there is a lot of quality depth among wide receivers. It's a passing league, and the wealth gets spread. A side effect of that viewpoint is that there are pass-catchers falling much further in drafts than their metrics and abilities say they should.


Wide receivers who are being underrated and drafted lower than they should be include:


Julio Jones, Atlanta Falcons
Average draft position (ADP): 32.0 (ranked 11th among wide receivers)


Last year, Jones was one of only 31 wide receivers to post 50 or more vertical targets (passes thrown 11 or more yards downfield) despite battling hamstring injuries that cost him three full games and being a rookie in a lockout-truncated offseason.


That is enough of a reason to like his upside over the course of a 16-game schedule that follows a typical offseason, but there is another, even more compelling motive for drafting Jones -- he could end up being more valuable than his Falcons pass-catching counterpart, Roddy White.
<offer>

The key to this value stems from the fact that last season White had 171 targets to Jones' 94 targets and yet he scored only 33 more fantasy points (172 for White, 139 for Jones).


These numbers illustrate how White's value really stems from garnering a high volume of throws. If he sees a reduction in targets, (something he recently said he wouldn't mind if it led to team success), his value would drop.


The flip side of that coin is that Jones' value would increase significantly with an increased number of targets. Since the Falcons are quite likely to try to even the workload between these two, it's clear Jones should be valued as a draft-day equal to White (whose 19.2 ADP ranks fourth among wide receivers).

Brandon Lloyd, New England Patriots
ADP: 51.2 (ranked 17th)


Lloyd has a good shot at posting numbers that are in the neighborhood of what Randy Moss posted as the downfield threat in the 2007-08 version of the Patriots' offense.


That may sound hard to believe, but according to a study performed for a March Insider article, Lloyd's 2010-11 season with the Denver Broncos provided clear evidence that he is capable of being extraordinarily productive on long throws.


Here is how those two seasons compare:


• 2007-08 Moss: 98 vertical targets, 1,124 vertical yards, 11.5 vertical yards per attempt (VYPA), 17 touchdowns


• 2010-11 Lloyd: 110 vertical targets, 1,403 vertical yards, 12.8 VYPA, nine touchdowns


Moss did score eight more touchdowns but he also had Tom Brady throwing him the ball, while Lloyd had Kyle Orton tossing him passes. Now that Lloyd is in that same offense Moss was in (and is said to be acclimating quite well to it), the odds of his replicating or improving his 2010-11 numbers look to be quite high. He should be considered a top-10 wide receiver for fantasy players.


Antonio Brown, Pittsburgh Steelers
ADP: 68.1 (ranked 26th)


Brown's teammates think quite highly of him, as they voted him team MVP last year.


The Steelers' front office has much the same positive view, as it recently gave Brown a $42.5 million contract extension.


He also rewarded fantasy football owners with five double-digit-point games in seven starts at one point last season. Combine that with his matchup-buster skills (he ranked sixth in my review of the best matchup-buster wideouts in the NFL), his superb skills on medium-depth passes (he had 54 targets between 11-19 yards, second-most in the league) and the fact Brown is now likely to once again be on the opposite side of the field from speedster Mike Wallace, and it should give him a spot somewhere among the top 20 fantasy wideouts.


Torrey Smith, Baltimore Ravens
ADP: 89.6 (ranked 30th)


Smith's up-and-down fantasy point totals last season gave him something of a reputation for being an inconsistent player.


That may be true at some level, but look at how some of his stats compared to other top wideouts.


He had 60 vertical targets, which is more than the vertical target totals posted by Mike Wallace (50), Greg Jennings (50), Jordy Nelson (51), Victor Cruz (57) or Julio Jones (50).


His 739 vertical yards ranked 15th overall and bested Dwayne Bowe (712), Jennings (702) and Steve Johnson (614).


Smith also ranked ninth in the matchup-busters article, and his 7.5 YPA on short passes (aerials thrown less than 10 yards) ranked 13th-best in the league, showing he can turn a dink-and-dunk pass into a longer gainer.


His varied skills will become an even larger part of this offense sooner rather than later, so consider him a top-25 fantasy wideout.


Titus Young, Detroit Lions
ADP: 117.6 (ranked 41st)


Brandon LaFell, Carolina Panthers
ADP: 148.2 (ranked 58th)


Getting value picks in the early and middle rounds is a big plus, however getting value picks in the later rounds of a draft who might produce as well as some of the mid-round picks can be just as big of a plus.


Young and LaFell are two wideouts who fit the latter description fairly well.


In Young's case, his camp performance indicates he has the potential to turn into a starter opposite the best wide receiver in fantasy football (and recent ESPN The Magazine cover subject), Calvin Johnson.


That would be valuable for any wideout, but could be doubly so in Young's case because he was able to rack up 40 vertical targets in only nine starts last year. Make him a full-time starter and he could see 100 total targets and 50 vertical targets, both of which are flex-starter caliber.


LaFell already has the advantage of locking down the starting job opposite a very good wideout in Steve Smith. He also has shown an ability to dominate on longer passes, as his 14.7 VYPA last season ranked tied for seventh overall and was tied for sixth among wideouts with at least 30 vertical targets. His fantasy value was limited by a relatively low number of overall targets (54), but a move from five starts in 2011 to a full season's worth this year should move that number up dramatically. He may be the best late-round pick a fantasy owner makes this year.
</offer>

 

[HacheMan]

Auction strategies to employ

Eric Karabell

The best part about participating in a fantasy football auction is that anything goes, and you're never a victim of unfortunate, random draft order or someone else choosing a player you really want the pick before you. Don't get me wrong, drafts are awesome as well, but for anyone that has had that year in which they seemed to pick last in all their drafts can attest, it stinks never getting a shot at Aaron Rodgers, Arian Foster or Calvin Johnson.


In an auction league you can, in theory, get all three of those fellows on the same squad, though it doesn't come recommended. Certainly you can get two of them, though, which doesn't happen in a draft league without a trade. The point is, there are more options in an auction format for you to build your team your way, and our goal in this blog entry is to strategize a few different options to build teams.


Let's assume a standard ESPN lineup and $200 budget, and point out three types of teams below, explaining the virtues and potential drawbacks. We'll use ESPN's published auction values as a guide, so whether you think a player is worth $10 more or $10 less isn't a factor. We have to start somewhere, but for any of us that have been in an auction are aware, with some players you do pay more, with others you might pay less, and often timing is everything. In the end, there are myriad ways to construct the final product. My advice is to go in with a plan but be willing to adjust it on the fly, numerous times if needed, and spend all your money. Oh, and have fun.


<offer></offer>Team 1

<table><tbody><tr class="last"><td>QB: Aaron Rodgers, Packers ($55)
</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>RB: Arian Foster, Texans ($60)
</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>RB: Michael Turner, Falcons ($22)
</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>WR: Wes Welker, Patriots ($37)
</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>WR: DeSean Jackson, Eagles ($6)
</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Flex: RB Stevan Ridley, Patriots ($9)
</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>TE: Jason Witten, Cowboys ($2)
</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>D/ST: Pittsburgh Steelers ($1)
</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>K: Rob Bironas, Titans ($1)
</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Bench: QB Carson Palmer, Raiders ($1)
</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Bench: RB James Starks, Packers ($1)
</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Bench: RB Bernard Scott, Bengals ($1)
</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Bench: RB Jacquizz Rodgers, Falcons ($1)
</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Bench: WR Justin Blackmon, Jaguars ($1)
</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Bench: WR Mike Williams, Buccaneers ($1)
</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Bench: WR Nate Burleson, Lions ($1)
</td></tr></tbody></table>

Team 1: Stars and scrubs


The problem with an all-or-nothing team is what happens when one of the guys you'd call an "all" player gives you nothing. It happens way too often, like with the unfortunate Jamaal Charles injury last season, and that's why it's dangerous practice to load up on stars yet leave yourself with so little depth that you're not even properly prepared for bye weeks.


Then again, who wouldn't want to secure multiple players that would, in general, be viewed as safe first-round draft picks? There's inherent advantage there because owning the potential best at two positions can carry a team. This team to the right has that, at least on paper, but it also lacks a usable bench devoid of much upside, and a few starters come with question marks. For example, last season Michael Vick and Chris Johnson certainly could have played the role of "all" players, clear first-rounders to many that didn't work out so well.


Ultimately, this team, which is just an example of a stars-and-scrubs entry, can win if the big-time talents stay healthy and productive. As we know, often things don't work out quite that well. How do you fix this team should Foster go down? There was no bench allotment to afford Ben Tate. What if DeSean Jackson doesn't feel much like trying? What can you possibly trade since the bench is all dollar guys? The answer is, your season becomes a problem.


Overall thoughts: The team looks shiny and pretty with its stars, but there's risk without proper balance.



Team 2

<table><tbody><tr class="last"><td>QB: Tony Romo, Cowboys ($16)
</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>RB: Fred Jackson, Bills ($25)
</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>RB: Frank Gore, 49ers ($22)
</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>WR: Steve Smith, Panthers ($20)
</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>WR: Marques Colston, Saints ($16)
</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Flex: RB Ahmad Bradshaw, Giants ($17)
</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>TE: Jimmy Graham, Saints ($36)
</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>D/ST: San Francisco 49ers ($2)
</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>K: Mason Crosby, Packers ($1)
</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Bench: QB Philip Rivers, Chargers ($7)
</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Bench: RB Reggie Bush, Dolphins ($12)
</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Bench: RB C.J. Spiller, Bills ($5)
</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Bench: WR Percy Harvin, Vikings ($10)
</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Bench: WR Robert Meachem, Chargers ($5)
</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Bench: WR Santonio Holmes, Jets ($4)
</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Bench: TE Fred Davis, Redskins ($2)
</td></tr></tbody></table>

Team 2: Better balance


This team has some depth to it, but doesn't possess players who would warrant consideration in the first round of a draft, and, except for the tight end, the second round, either. Rather, there are quite a few players who would end up in rounds 3 through 7, which is safe and obviously, balanced. If and when there are injuries the bench is built in such a way that there are clear fill-ins ready for action, and there is a clear handcuff aboard in case one of the running backs goes down. It's tough to get a handcuff running back with the stars-and-scrubs focus. Of course, that starting lineup seems to trump this one, as will others in the league.


Because this team wasn't forced into dollar purchases at the end, it was able to bid on more and better players, and acquire a sleeper here or there as opposed to settling for rookies or past-prime veterans. Also, because of the inconsistent nature of players from year to year to start with, this team has a better shot of having someone emerge from the bench to become an immediate star. There are definitely positives to choosing a team in which one, perhaps, sets an imaginary dollar cap on individuals to avoid temptation.


Overall thoughts: An overall upgrade on Team 1, and seemingly a contender, but it can be improved upon.


Team 3

<table><tbody><tr class="last"><td>QB: Eli Manning, Giants ($30)
</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>RB: Matt Forte, Bears ($39)
</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>RB: Trent Richardson, Browns ($23)
</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>WR: Calvin Johnson, Lions ($51)
</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>WR: Dez Bryant, Cowboys ($19)
</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Flex: RB Jonathan Stewart, Panthers ($10)
</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>TE: Tony Gonzalez, Falcons ($3)
</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>D/ST: Philadelphia Eagles ($1)
</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>K: David Akers, 49ers ($1)
</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Bench: RB DeAngelo Williams, Panthers ($6)
</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Bench: RB Donald Brown, Colts ($3)
</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Bench: RB Daniel Thomas, Dolphins ($2)
</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Bench: WR Antonio Brown, Steelers ($7)
</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Bench: WR Sidney Rice, Seahawks ($2)
</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Bench: QB Jay Cutler, Bears ($2)
</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Bench: TE Jared Cook, Titans ($1)
</td></tr></tbody></table>

Team 3: Stars and balance


I've participated in many auctions and can admit to evolving into a more patient fantasy owner that likes this version of a team more than the others. I used to just grab numerous top stars and assume I could find the dollar guys I like. Problem was, everyone else knew the dollar guys I liked! Sure, it's a blast to secure several top players, but it comes with risk. It's also nice to have a bench, since we all know it will be needed. Ending up with a team in this group might be the toughest to execute, but it's preferred.


You've got your first-rounder, if you want to compare it to a draft, and there are a few upside choices represented in the starting lineup and the bench. There was money available for a handcuff and a sleeper or two, and unlike Team 1, the flex spot doesn't have to be the same guy each week. Unlike Team 2, there's more star power here.


In a way this is a team that someone might actually draft, as the players fit neatly into that format. The nice part is, if you're sitting in the third round and really wanted Trent Richardson in a draft he might go with the pick before yours, but here you can get him by topping bids. The best auction policy is really to treat it somewhat like a draft in terms of the final product of players. It's not top-heavy or mid-round-heavy. It's balanced across the rounds.


Overall thoughts: The best team.

 

[HacheMan]

Silva's Updated Top 150
I have listened intently to the argument for drafting a first-round quarterback. I've pondered it and made every attempt to comprehend it. I still don't understand it.

The argument's initial premise states that the NFL is a passing league. Premise two cites last year's stats, which showed five "elite" quarterbacks followed by a drop off a cliff. Both premises are factual. But in the first-round quarterback argument, they could not be more poorly applied.

A logically sound rebuttal for premise one is that the passing league deepens the field. Wide receivers and quarterbacks score more points. There are more productive wideouts and passers. Premise two only took place because Peyton Manning got injured, Philip Rivers hit a wall, Matthew Stafford stayed healthy, and Cam Newton dominated as a rookie. A whole lot of unforeseen. To suggest there is truly predictability -- that five quarterbacks are elite and the rest will hurt you -- is awfully ambitious. And there is very little chance it will prove true. None, really.

The second premise is really rough. It's based entirely on last year's stats. There is little I can tell you right now with supreme confidence about the 2012 season. This stuff really isn't predictable. One of the few certainties is that last year's stats are not indicative of this year's. Do I think Brady, Rodgers, and Brees will give you elite production? Yes. But fantasy drafts are all about value. And I think Vick and Ryan will score like them at not nearly the draft-day cost. I think Luck, Locker, and Big Ben can be top-ten quarterback scorers. They are mid- to late-round value picks.

So read up. Do research. Check every player's Rotoworld news page. Form your own opinion, and apply it on draft day. You know mine.

Now to the Top 150.

Editor's Note: Full player-by-player descriptions will be updated following the third week of preseason games. And for consensus rankings, projections, tiers, sleepers, busts and much, much more - get Rotoworld's 2012 Draft Guide.


First Round

1. Arian Foster (ADP: 1st overall) -- Foster brings to the table elite talent and versatility, but workload and scheme separate him from McCoy and Rice. Foster has started 30 games over the past three years, in them averaging 24.9 touches a game. McCoy has a 19.5-touch average across 34 starts. Rice has averaged 22.3 touches per start over those three seasons. The Texans have the run-heaviest offense in football, and their zone-blocking system is a well-oiled machine.

2. LeSean McCoy (ADP: 4th overall) -- McCoy doesn't get the rock quite as often as Rice or McFadden, but he's more efficient with his touches and plays in an offense I think will explode in a post-hype year. McCoy's fantasy running back ranking has improved in each of his three NFL seasons, and he's still just 24 years old. He's the only player I'd briefly consider taking over Foster.

3. Darren McFadden (ADP: 9th overall) -- Though its annual occurrence gives the mirage of a trend, DMC's injury history is rooted in bad luck. In exchange for a shot at the league-winning reward, I'm willing to take him in the top three as an insanely talented every-down back whose path to goal-line carries has been cleared for the first time in his career. McFadden is so good that he could miss two games and still outscore the running back field. He is an awesome player.

4. Ray Rice (ADP: 2nd overall) -- Rice doesn't have quite the juice Foster, McCoy, and McFadden offer as a sheer running talent. But he is a durable workhorse who quietly may be headed for a career-high in snaps considering the failure of a No. 2 back to emerge in Baltimore.

5. Chris Johnson (ADP: 7th overall) -- I wrote a late-July column charting Johnson's 2011 snaps and detailing the collection of excuses offered for his career-worst year. I've watched his preseason and feel a bit better about him now. CJ?K still possesses uncommon elusiveness and burst. The fact that Johnson flipped his own off switch last year is the only reason I have him behind DMC and Rice. He's an elite talent slated for an elite workload in an offense on the rise.

6. Calvin Johnson (ADP: 6th overall) -- Megatron is the only receiver valuable enough to draft in the first round, and that's because he's head and shoulders above the rest. He's the most physically dominant wideout in the game playing in the league's pass-heaviest offense with the NFL's strongest-armed quarterback. For "last year's stats" guys, he scored over three fantasy points per week more than the No. 2 receiver (Jordy Nelson). Megatron gives you a huge edge.

7. DeMarco Murray (ADP: 11th overall) -- Dallas' interior line is a concern, but Murray lacks any hint of competition for carries and can compensate with pure volume. Assuming he gets good luck and stays healthy, Murray is a darkhorse to lead the league in rushing attempts. The Cowboys' passing game will likely start slow with Jason Witten and Miles Austin nursing injuries. Murray can be the early-season offensive centerpiece, and his passing-game role is sure to rise.

8. Jamaal Charles (ADP: Mid 2nd round) -- The Texans tied the Broncos for the 2011 league lead in rushing attempts. Denver will be a pass-first offense as Peyton Manning replaces Tim Tebow, and Kansas City now may be Houston's most viable "competitor" for the NFL's run-heaviest team. Workload should not be a major issue for Charles, who has avoided training-camp setbacks following last September's ACL tear while rediscovering pre-injury explosion and moves.

9. Steven Jackson (ADP: Late 2nd round) -- I've found Jackson to be among the league's most impressive runners through two weeks of preseason. Having dropped at least ten pounds, S-Jax has displayed improved quickness and speed while shedding the "hop-step" behind the line of scrimmage he bad-habited even in his prime. Jeff Fisher is going to run the ball early and often in St. Louis. I think Jackson may well approach the 379 touches Fisher gave Eddie George in his own age-29 season. I have a first-round grade on S-Jax, and he can be had in the second round.

10. Jimmy Graham (ADP: 15th overall) -- The first-round quarterback argument (see intro) applies more smoothly to tight ends. For the last-year's-stats crowd, Gronk scored nearly six more points per week than the No. 3 tight end. Graham, who finished second, scored 2.5 more points per week than No. 3. These tight ends tilt weekly scoring in a particular owner's favor and are unto a tier of their own. I like Graham to outscore Gronkowski ever so slightly because he's the clear-cut No. 1 option in his offense and blocks less. They are both late first-round picks.

11. Rob Gronkowski (ADP: Late 2nd round) -- Barring injury, Gronkowski and Graham's 2011 catch and yardage totals are reliable barometers as to their 2012 production. Aside from perhaps Gronk's TDs, I don't think there will be dramatic downturn from either of their final-year stats. I think Antonio Gates has an outside chance to approach Gronk and Graham's catches and yards, and Aaron Hernandez, Jermichael Finley, and perhaps Vernon Davis will at least keep you competitive. But Gronk and Graham are weekly matchup tilters and every bit worth top-12 picks.

12. Ryan Mathews (ADP: Late 2nd round) -- Fantasy footballers have every right to be shaken by Mathews' fractured collarbone considering his past durability woes. But the facts of the matter are it was a hard-luck injury, and Mathews is expected to miss no more than two games. Mathews was a top-seven weekly running back scorer with Mike Tolbert in the 2011 picture and won't struggle for top-five per-week statistics with Tolbert gone to Carolina. Commonly available throughout the second round of drafts, Mathews is a value pick anywhere beyond the top 14.

Second Round

13. Marshawn Lynch (ADP: Mid 2nd round) -- Lynch's position and volume lock him in as a top-15 overall fantasy pick, and he's impressed with quickness and burst in August games after cutting offseason weight. Despite his July DUI, Lynch no longer appears in danger of suspension.

14. Matt Forte (ADP: 10th overall) -- The No. 10 fantasy pick seems rich for a back who never got goal-line carries in the first place, and now threatens to lose precious open-field touches to Michael Bush. The Bears may look to "preserve" Forte a bit after committing big money to him.

15. Julio Jones (ADP: Mid 2nd round) -- If any receiver can give Calvin Johnson a run for the 2012 fantasy scoring lead, Jones is the NFL's best bet as a freakish talent becoming the featured player in a pass-first, up-tempo offense. Julio is going to shred defenses this season.

16. Fred Jackson (ADP: Late 2nd round) -- Jackson isn't a "sexy" pick as a 31-year-old running back who plays in Buffalo. But the preseason has shown he remains locked in as the feature runner ahead of C.J. Spiller. Chan Gailey's Pistol Spread offense floods the field with four and five receivers, creating running lanes. Jackson should be secure as a top-12 fantasy back.

17. Doug Martin (ADP: Early 4th round) -- I've viewed each of Martin and LeGarrette Blount's August snaps, and there is no question that the rookie brings more to the table in every facet of the game. At worst, Martin will open the season as a 14-18 touch-per-week RB2 playing in Greg Schiano's run-first, smash-mouth offense behind the NFL's highest-paid offensive line. By October, Martin should be handling the ball 20 times a game. He is way better than Blount.

18. Andre Johnson (ADP: Early 3rd round) -- This guy was a first-round fantasy pick last year. Johnson's 12 missed games over the past two seasons combined with an early-camp groin injury appear to have sunk his Average Draft Position, making Johnson a value pick. He's lost nothing off his fastball, evidenced by three 90-plus yard performances among his last four "real" games and last Saturday's 43-yard preseason catch in double coverage against San Francisco.

19. Larry Fitzgerald (ADP: Late 2nd round) -- Fitz drafters and keeper-league owners need John Skelton to win Arizona's quarterback job. The Cardinals' signal caller must accomplish two tasks: 1) Stand tall as his pocket inevitably collapses behind a sieve of an offensive line, and 2) Get the ball to Fitzgerald. When Skelton played more extensively in 2011 games, Fitz averaged 94 yards per contest. His per-game average fell to 82 yards with Kevin Kolb under center.

20. Dez Bryant (ADP: Mid 4th round) -- I think Julio Jones has the best shot at unseating Calvin Johnson for the receiver fantasy scoring lead. I think Dez is the best bet to challenge for Johnson's receiving touchdown crown. Particularly with Jason Witten (spleen) and Miles Austin (hamstring) nursing worrisome injuries, Bryant is headed for a target-heavy breakout season.

21. A.J. Green (ADP: Late 2nd round) -- Andy Dalton's rough preseason is cause for some pause, but Green is dynamic enough to be quarterback-proof. Green can "go get" poorly thrown passes, and Dalton has shown a willingness in August to throw it to him up for grabs. Green is a sneaky candidate to lead the league in targets. The Bengals really have no one else.

22. Antonio Gates (ADP: Late 4th round) -- Fantasy owners should wait until the third round to even begin considering Gates in light of his late fourth-round Average Draft Position, but I'm confident he'll meet expectations and then some. Philip Rivers has lost something off his deep ball, and Gates is still capable of dominating underneath. I expect him to lead San Diego in pass targets, receptions, receiving yards, and touchdowns, and to rank third among fantasy tight ends.

23. Hakeem Nicks (ADP: Early 4th round) -- Even after Victor Cruz's 2011 breakout year, Nicks is the Giants' best receiver. I think he's a value pick at his current ADP. His spring foot injury no longer an issue, Nicks will start Friday's preseason game and be 100 percent for the opener.

24. Adrian Peterson (ADP: 13th overall) -- Peterson's recovery has proceeded smoothly by all accounts, but I remain skeptical that he stands any chance of living up to his top-of-round-two Average Draft Position coming off ACL and MCL tears with damage to both meniscuses. He's someone I'd let another owner draft. Peterson isn't going to be a full-time back early in the season even if he's active for games, and the possibility of setbacks remains as he begins to face contact.
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Third Round

25. Cam Newton (ADP: Mid 2nd round) -- Forget, for a minute, last year's rushing TDs and whether they're "repeatable." Newton is the most physically dominant young player in football, and I think it's only a matter of time (this year or next) before he takes over as the overall fantasy scoring leader and consensus No. 1 pick. Perhaps I'm a year early, but I'll be betting on this player going forward. I like Cam as the No. 1 fantasy quarterback, passing Rodgers, Brady, and Brees.

26. Aaron Rodgers (ADP: 3rd overall) -- Rodgers is the best player in the NFL. I have a third-round fantasy grade on him because he plays a deep position in a passing league where each year numerous passers emerge from the middle- and late-round woodwork to score at "elite" rates. I think Newton, Rodgers, Brady, Brees, Vick, Stafford, and Ryan will provide first-tier 2012 production. I'd much rather grab Vick or Ryan while trying for this year's Stafford or Newton later in the draft than blow my early-round wad on a quarterback. It's basic Supply & Demand.

27. Tom Brady (ADP: 5th overall) -- I was asked recently which quarterback I think offers the highest upside at quarterback, which the highest "floor," and which the best combination of upside and floor. My answer to the latter two queries was Brady. I answered Newton to the first.

28. Drew Brees (ADP: 8th overall) -- Seven straight seasons of top-six quarterback stats lock in Brees as an elite producer even without Robert Meachem and Carl Nicks. The additional loss of Sean Payton is not a concern for Brees' fantasy outlook. OC Pete Carmichael returns, and the 2011 offense averaged 36 more yards and over seven more points per game with Carmichael calling plays. Carmichael did so from Week 7 on, after Payton blew out his knee on the sideline.

29. Michael Vick (ADP: Early 5th round) -- Vick's ADP has been torpedoed by a perfect storm of factors. One legion of owners simply does not believe in Vick. Never did. Another legion bought on Vick last season, and came away disappointed. A third legion has watched this year's preseason games. Vick got nicked up in each of the first two weeks, so he obviously can't stay healthy. Aggressive, forward-looking fantasy owners will pounce on Vick in the third or fourth round. He's a weekly difference maker, and he is the No. 1 value pick quarterback in 2012 drafts.

30. Matthew Stafford (ADP: 12th overall) -- I banged the table for Stafford as a value pick in 2011 drafts, and he rewarded "risk" takers with a top-five quarterback season at the cost of a seventh-round pick. Now a full year removed from injury, Stafford's ADP takes him off my radar. Fantasy drafts are a value game, and I'd rather target Vick or Matt Ryan several rounds later.

31. Brandon Lloyd (ADP: Late 4th round) -- The Patriots' offense will go deep more as Josh McDaniels replaces Bill O'Brien, and Lloyd will benefit from single coverage while defenses key up to stop Gronk, Hernandez, and Welker. Lloyd's ADP has risen with Rotoworld pumping him up, but he's still worth it in the fourth round. He'll be drafted as a WR2 and score like a WR1.

32. Percy Harvin (ADP: Mid 4th round) -- Chris Wesseling recently suggested that the Vikings' 2012 offense could be a sneaky goldmine for fantasy value. My offseason game reviews of Christian Ponder uncovered a better-than-advertised arm, and Harvin was an absolute machine after Ponder took the reins as a rookie, averaging well over 100 yards per game with seven TDs in the final seven weeks. Harvin is being drafted as a WR2, but he's the rare receiver who can score like a WR1 in both PPR and non-PPR formats. Ponder is willing to force feed him the ball.

33. Steve Smith (ADP: Mid 4th round) -- Defenses schemed to take away Smith down last season's stretch, but it didn't end well for opponents. Carolina won four of its final six games -- three by blowout -- while playing playoff teams Detroit and Atlanta tough. Teams will have to figure out different ways to defend this offense, which ranked seventh in the NFL in 2011 and looks like a top-five unit for 2012. Smith returns as the featured player in Rob Chudzinski's vertical scheme.

34. Brandon Marshall (ADP: Early 3rd round) -- Hype was heavy on Marshall after a pair of long catches in Chicago's second preseason game, but there are a few things to remember. His value has always been superior in PPR compared to standard because he struggles in the red zone and doesn't go deep. I think Marshall is being a bit overrated in TD- and yard-heavy leagues.

35. Jordy Nelson (ADP: Late 3rd round) -- As alluded to previously, only Calvin Johnson scored more fantasy points among receivers than Nelson in 2011. While Nelson's efficiency stats were seemingly flukily off the charts, I think he has legitimately developed into a top-ten NFL wide receiver and will continue to outscore teammate Greg Jennings. Rodgers shows impressive trust in Nelson by throwing him the ball in up-for-grabs situations. I think he's every bit worth his ADP.

36. Jeremy Maclin (ADP: Late 5th round) -- In another case of fantasy leaguers relying on last year's stats, Maclin is shaping up as one of the premier value picks at receiver. We're quick to forget he had the look of a future All Pro in 2010, before Maclin's 2011 performance was affected by mysterious offseason illness, leading to significant weight loss. Maclin is Vick's best red-zone target, and clearly a more complete wideout than DeSean Jackson. He has a boatload of upside.

Fourth Round

37. Demaryius Thomas (ADP: Mid 5th round) -- Thomas' ADP has fallen noticeably and steadily since camp opened in late July, largely for reasons unknown. Is he not creating enough "buzz" for you? Thomas had three catches for 28 yards in Denver's second preseason game and a nice first-down grab called back by penalty in the opener. Peyton Manning's less-than-stellar August might explain Thomas' slip. I still expect Thomas to emerge as the NFL's premier run-after-catch receiver this season. It's worth noting that Eric Decker ran more vertical routes than Thomas last year. Thomas was the underneath-to-intermediate guy. He's not just a deep threat.

38. Antonio Brown (ADP: Early 5th round) -- The game tape shows Brown to be not quite as dynamic as Mike Wallace, and certainly not of similar ilk in the minds of opposing defensive coordinators. But we are projecting stats here, not debating the on-field impact of double and triple teams. Wallace's return is good news for Brown's fantasy outlook. Wallace will continue to command heavy coverage from opposing secondaries while Brown guts them inside the numbers.

39. Roddy White (ADP: Mid 3rd round) -- The fantasy owners still drafting White in the second and third rounds haven't paid enough attention. While White should continue to see a healthy dose of targets in Atlanta's pass-heavy offense, even Roddy himself admits Julio Jones will be the featured player in Dirk Koetter's attack. Jones is a WR1. White is a middling WR2.

40. Aaron Hernandez (ADP: Mid 5th round) -- When you get past Graham, Gronkowski, and Gates in your draft, I think you've lost the chance to acquire a difference maker at tight end. But Hernandez can keep you competitive with a high volume of touches and plenty of playmaking ability in a high-scoring offense. Jermichael Finley and Vernon Davis are next up. Finley's on-field play can be maddeningly inconsistent, and San Francisco's run-first philosophy holds Davis back.

41. Marques Colston (ADP: Late 4th round) -- Colston missed two games last year and still ranked 11th among fantasy receivers. He was eighth in wideout scoring per game. Those are legitimate WR1 numbers. Though Jimmy Graham has overtaken him as the Saints' top receiver, New Orleans' pass-happy attack allows plenty of volume for two upper-echelon fantasy producers. Be it with PPR or non-PPR settings, I think you're in great shape if you secure Colston as a WR2.

42. Victor Cruz (ADP: Late 3rd round) -- If Cruz has any edge on teammate Nicks, it is superior versatility. Cruz can play X, Z, and slot receiver, running a diverse and full route tree in OC Kevin Gilbride's vertical offense. Nicks primarily sticks to the sideline, securing just about everything thrown his way with body control and massive mitts. I think Nicks will score more like the WR1 this year, but Cruz won't be too far off. He's another terrific WR2 regardless of format.

43. Greg Jennings (ADP: Mid 3rd round) -- A precision route runner who moves around the formation more than you might think, Jennings was a top-ten receiver before succumbing to regular season-ending knee injury after 13 games in 2011. In these rankings, I gave Jordy Nelson the slight edge on Jennings in 2012 projected scoring. But I really think it could go either way.

44. Maurice Jones-Drew (ADP: 14th overall) -- Jones-Drew is still being drafted as if he's going to be just fine. The history of holdout running backs suggests there's little chance of that, and Rashad Jennings' impressive preseason bodes especially poorly for MJD's odds of seeing a workload remotely resembling last year's. There is a ton of risk in drafting Jones-Drew, and I don't think the possible reward is worth it. I wouldn't even consider it before the middle of round four.

45. Darren Sproles (ADP: Mid 3rd round) -- It's still difficult to grasp relying on a standard-league back as an every-week starter when he's not even a lock for 100-plus carries. A very new-wave player, Sproles qualifies because he catches so many passes and is second in line for red-zone work in New Orleans' backfield, essentially rotating there with Mark Ingram. Receptions gain more yards than rushing attempts, anyway, and Sproles has a "floor" of around 6-7 touchdowns.

46. Eric Decker (ADP: Late 5th round)

47. Dwayne Bowe (ADP: Late 5th round)

48. Wes Welker (ADP: Mid 3rd round)

Fifth Round

49. Matt Ryan (ADP: Mid 4th round)

50. Trent Richardson (ADP: Early 3rd round)

51. Ahmad Bradshaw (ADP: Early 4th round)

52. Jermichael Finley (ADP: Early 6th round)

53. Mike Wallace (ADP: Late 4th round) -- I love Wallace's game. I think he is better than Antonio Brown. But after missing Todd Haley's offensive install by holding out of OTAs and the first month of camp, Wallace has just two weeks to learn Haley's system on the fly. My concern is Wallace will open the year as a clear-out receiver, running deep patterns to take coverage while Brown racks up stats underneath. I'm worried Wallace will be very inconsistent. I hope I'm wrong.

54. Vernon Davis (ADP: Mid 6th round)

55. Vincent Jackson (ADP: Mid 6th round)

56. Kevin Smith (ADP: Mid 6th round)

57. Willis McGahee (ADP: Early 5th round)

58. Frank Gore (ADP: Early 4th round) -- I'd rather take Kendall Hunter in the 12th round. Gore's passing-game role has evaporated in Jim Harbaugh's offense (17 catches in '11), and he's slated to lose goal-line work to Brandon Jacobs while Hunter and LaMichael James steal open-field snaps. I think Gore has a shot at RB2 value for the season's first month and a half, but expect his field time to dwindle down the stretch with Hunter eventually taking over as lead back.

59. Stevan Ridley (ADP: Mid 7th round)

60. Stevie Johnson (ADP: Early 6th round)
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Sixth Round

61. Reggie Wayne (ADP: Late 6th round)

62. Torrey Smith (ADP: Early 7th round)

63. Reggie Bush (ADP: Late 4th round)

64. Jonathan Stewart (ADP: Late 7th round)

65. Peyton Hillis (ADP: Mid 5th round)

66. DeSean Jackson (ADP: Mid 5th round)

67. Michael Turner (ADP: Late 3rd round)

68. Kenny Britt (ADP: Late 7th round)

69. Ryan Williams (ADP: Late 7th round)

70. Miles Austin (ADP: Mid 6th round)

71. Mark Ingram (ADP: Late 7th round) -- Ingram interests me as a standard-league RB2/flex because he's looked awfully good in preseason action while retaining a stranglehold on red-zone carries in New Orleans' high-scoring offense. Ingram disappointed a ton of owners last season, keeping the Average Draft Position very low on a legitimate threat for 10-12 rushing TDs.

72. Pierre Garcon (ADP: Late 6th round)

Seventh Round

73. Ben Tate (ADP: Early 7th round)

74. Rashad Jennings (ADP: Mid 8th round)

75. Donald Brown (ADP: Mid 5th round)

76. Greg Little (ADP: Late 9th round)

77. Tony Romo (ADP: Late 6th round) -- Romo's Average Draft Position was screaming toward the fourth round early in training camp, but it's understandably cooled off with so many injuries around him. Jason Witten (spleen) is likely to miss Week 1 and may not be healthy early in the season. Miles Austin's hamstring problems are recurring. The interior of Dallas' offensive line looks worse than last year's, if that's possible. I wouldn't want Romo as my fantasy starter.

78. Eli Manning (ADP: Late 5th round)

79. Philip Rivers (ADP: Early 7th round)

80. Fred Davis (ADP: Late 8th round)

81. Titus Young (ADP: Mid 7th round)

82. Toby Gerhart (ADP: Mid 9th round)

83. Shonn Greene (ADP: Early 6th round) -- I mentioned the effect of a passing league on fantasy statistics in this column's introduction. It has deepened the wide receiver and quarterback fields. At the same time, the passing league has allowed pass-catching running backs to lap early-down plodders, particularly those who don't play in high-scoring offenses. Shonn Greene is precisely the kind of running back to avoid in 2012 fantasy drafts. He doesn't catch passes, plays in a brutal offense, and lacks big-play ability to compensate. You're in trouble if he's your RB2.

84. Peyton Manning (ADP: Mid 6th round)

Eighth Round

85. Denarius Moore (ADP: Late 8th round)

86. C.J. Spiller (ADP: Early 8th round)

87. Kyle Rudolph (ADP: Late 13th round) -- Rudolph's ADP is still in the flier-pick range, but he shouldn't be considered a flier anymore. If there is a late-round tight end capable of leaping into the Hernandez/Finley/Davis tier, it's the one in Minnesota. Rudolph should be Ponder's No. 1 red-zone target and No. 2 in the open field, behind Harvin. He's got a leg up on the Jared Cooks of the world as an established, every-down tight end. Rudolph isn't just a passing-down specialist.

88. Darrius Heyward-Bey (ADP: Late 8th round)

89. DeAngelo Williams (ADP: Mid 8th round)

90. Michael Bush (ADP: Mid 8th round)

91. BenJarvus Green-Ellis (ADP: Mid 4th round)

92. Ben Roethlisberger (ADP: Mid 9th round)

93. Evan Royster (ADP: Late 10th round)

94. Beanie Wells (ADP: Late 6th round)

95. Justin Blackmon (ADP: Early 8th round)

96. Andrew Luck (ADP: Early 10th round)

Ninth Round

97. Roy Helu (ADP: Early 9th round)

98. Jacob Tamme (ADP: Late 7th round)

99. Jason Witten (ADP: Early 8th round)

100. Jay Cutler (ADP: Late 7th round)

101. Isaiah Pead (ADP: Mid 13th round)

102. Jake Locker (ADP: Late 13th round)

103. Robert Meachem (ADP: Early 8th round)

104. Michael Crabtree (ADP: Early 11th round)

105. Jacquizz Rodgers (ADP: Late 9th round)

106. Kendall Wright (ADP: Late 11th round)

107. David Wilson (ADP: Early 9th round)

108. Robert Griffin III (ADP: Late 8th round)
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Tenth Round

109. Brandon LaFell (ADP: Early 11th round) -- LaFell and Legedu Naanee rotated as Carolina's No. 2 receiver in 2011, combining for a final stat line of 80/1,080/4. LaFell now has the job all to himself. While LaFell is unlikely to repeat those statistics on his own, he does offer intriguing breakout appeal in the Panthers' aggressive, vertical offense. He's an ideal WR4 pick.

110. Austin Collie (ADP: Early 11th round) -- Collie's latest concussion understandably sent his ADP back down the drain just as he was beginning to look like the best receiver value going in drafts. There are no guarantees for a player concussed four times in a 21-month span, but I still like Collie's upside at the price of a WR4/5. I think he can lead Indy in catches and yards if he gains medical clearance. To date, there are no indications that Collie will be shut down.

111. Kendall Hunter (ADP: Mid 12th round)

112. Cedric Benson (ADP: Mid-7th round) -- Benson will open the season as the favorite for carries in Green Bay's backfield, but pedestrian talent and questionable scheme fit are working against him. Benson can't pass block or catch to save his life, and Packers backs must be able to play in the passing game in order to earn regular playing time. Benson may offer early-season RB3/flex value, but he'll be a liability in PPR leagues while gradually ceding snaps to Alex Green.

113. Malcom Floyd (ADP: Early 8th round)

114. Carson Palmer (ADP: Early 11th round)

115. Isaac Redman (ADP: Early 7th round)

116. Nate Washington (ADP: Mid 9th round)

117. Greg Olsen (ADP: Mid 12th round)

118. Randall Cobb (ADP: Mid 10th round)

119. Tony Gonzalez (ADP: Mid 9th round)

120. Anquan Boldin (ADP: Early 9th round)

Eleventh Round

121. Joe Flacco (ADP: Mid 12th round)

122. Sidney Rice (ADP: Late 11th round)

123. Jared Cook (ADP: Early 12th round)

124. Lance Moore (ADP: Early 10th round)

125. LeGarrette Blount (ADP: Early 10th round)

126. Pierre Thomas (ADP: Late 11th round)

127. Randy Moss (ADP: Mid 9th round)

128. Santonio Holmes (ADP: Mid 10th round)

129. Brandon Pettigrew (ADP: Late 8th round)

130. Alex Green (ADP: Undrafted) -- An October ACL tear should make most leery of Green's chances at significant 2012 fantasy impact, but he's clearly bypassed James Starks and has a leg up on Cedric Benson from the standpoint that Green excels in the passing game. The Packers are a passing team. It's not crazy to think the lead back job can be Green's by midyear.

131. Mike Williams (ADP: Late 10th round)

132. Bernard Scott (ADP: Undrafted)

Twelfth Round

133. Shane Vereen (ADP: Late 12th round)

134. Davone Bess (ADP: Undrafted)

135. Christian Ponder (ADP: Undrafted)

136. Ryan Fitzpatrick (ADP: Late 12th round)

137. Bernard Pierce (ADP: Undrafted)

138. Jermaine Gresham (ADP: Late 10th round)

139. Matt Schaub (ADP: Late 9th round)

140. Alshon Jeffery (ADP: Late 11th round)

141. Braylon Edwards (ADP: Undrafted)

142. Brian Quick (ADP: Early 14th round)

143. Josh Freeman (ADP: Early 12th round)

144. Lamar Miller (ADP: Undrafted)

Thirteenth Round

133. Felix Jones (ADP: Late 13th round) -- Out of shape and looking two steps slower in practice and preseason games, Jones has been outplayed by Phillip Tanner and UDFA Jamize Olawale to the point that there's been speculation Felix might lose his roster spot in Dallas. Jones should make the Cowboys' final 53, but he's no longer a desirable handcuff for DeMarco Murray.

145. Vick Ballard (ADP: Undrafted)

147. Ronnie Hillman (ADP: Mid 13th round)

148. Owen Daniels (ADP: Mid 13th round)

149. Emmanuel Sanders (ADP: Early 14th round) -- Sanders would have been a lot more intriguing had Mike Wallace held out into the regular season. With Wallace caving, Sanders will return to the slot in Todd Haley's offense, operating as a part-time player. He's still a worthy WR5 who could ascend to every-week WR3 production if Wallace or Antonio Brown were to get injured.

150. Mikel Leshoure (ADP: Late 10th round)

Left out of Top 150: Colts TE Coby Fleener, Steelers RB Rashard Mendenhall, Bengals QB Andy Dalton, Jaguars WR Laurent Robinson, Packers RB James Starks, Redskins WRs Leonard Hankerson and Santana Moss, Jets TE Dustin Keller, Raiders RB Mike Goodson, Vikings WR Jerome Simpson, Redskins RBs Tim Hightower and Alfred Morris, Seahawks WRs Terrell Owens and Doug Baldwin, 49ers WR Mario Manningham, Dolphins RB Daniel Thomas, Chiefs WR Jon Baldwin, Browns TE Jordan Cameron, Colts WR LaVon Brazill, Dolphins WR Brian Hartline, Cardinals WR Michael Floyd, Rams WR Steve Smith, Eagles TE Brent Celek, Seahawks QB Russell Wilson.

 

[HacheMan]

Running back rankings by tiers

Eric Karabell

This week's blog entry on wide receiver tiers was such a resounding success, we've decided to keep the love going with running backs, as well. Some people have asked about quarterbacks and tight ends and, yes, even kickers, but the fact is I don't consider a tiered system truly valuable except for wide receivers and running backs.


The impetus behind separating players into tiers is to help a fantasy owner make quick decisions about scarcity of depth in the heat and rush of a draft or auction. As with wide receivers, if you're sitting there in the sixth round and can't decide what to do, if there are five players left in your top tier at one position but only one in another, the call is more obvious. It's also important to note that just because Hakeem Nicks is a Tier 4 wide receiver, it has no bearing on the running backs in the same number tier. That's what overall rankings are for, but this is about positional depth. Oh, and running back gets uglier much quicker.


As with wide receiver, we hope this is a helpful exercise and gets you ready for drafts. I would caution owners to make their own tiers and their own decisions, and use everything you see at ESPN Fantasy and in the draft kit as a guide, not gospel. They are, after all, your teams. After the player/team, you'll see my personal running back rankings and overall rank in parenthesis. Agree or disagree -- it's all good, after all -- and share your thoughts below, perhaps even convince me of the error of my ways! I'm also on Twitter @karabellespn. Enjoy!


<offer></offer>Tier 1
Arian Foster, Texans (1st RB, 1st overall)
Ray Rice, Ravens (2nd, 2nd)
LeSean McCoy, Eagles (3rd, 3rd): These are my first three picks off the board. No worries.


Tier 2
Maurice Jones-Drew, Jaguars (4th, 5th): Still not terribly worried, but talk to me in a week. I think it all gets settled.
Chris Johnson, Titans (5th, 6th): I think he bounces back strong, obvious from this nice ranking.


Tier 3
Marshawn Lynch, Seahawks (6th, 11th): I know who he is and what's he done to us. And still...
Matt Forte, Bears (7th, 12th): His new goal-line vulture doesn't scare me.


Tier 4
Darren McFadden, Raiders (8th, 20th): One of these years, he's fantasy's best.
DeMarco Murray, Cowboys (9th, 24th): Seven career starts, two touchdowns. Scary.
Jamaal Charles, Chiefs (10th, 25th)


Tier 5
Michael Turner, Falcons (11th, 26th): Went to high school with your grandfather. Not really.
Steven Jackson, Rams (12th, 28th): Not exactly a teenager himself. And his backup is in place.
Ryan Mathews, Chargers (13th, 29th): Yes, even if he misses two weeks of September.
Adrian Peterson, Vikings (14th, 31st): Do you feel lucky?
Darren Sproles, Saints (15th, 32nd): Safest guy in the tier, really.


Tier 6
Frank Gore, 49ers (16th, 36th)
Fred Jackson, Bills (17th, 38th)
Ahmad Bradshaw, Giants (18th, 39th)
Trent Richardson, Browns (19th, 40th): Wouldn't expect great September numbers.
Willis McGahee, Broncos (20th, 41st): A bit underrated.
Reggie Bush, Dolphins (21st, 44th): Fewer runs, more catches, but a full season again?


Tier 7
Peyton Hillis, Chiefs (22nd, 54th): Potential for big things. Nice flex choice.
BenJarvus Green-Ellis, Bengals (23rd, 57th)
Jonathan Stewart, Panthers (24th, 58th): I think he'll make his mark.


Tier 8
Roy Helu, Redskins (25th, 59th): On the verge of dropping about four tiers.
Ben Tate, Texans (26th, 60th): One injury away from Tier 2.
Beanie Wells, Cardinals (27th, 61st)
Doug Martin, Buccaneers (28th, 68th)


Tier 9
Shonn Greene, Jets (29th, 70th): Might not score much, but should run enough.
DeAngelo Williams, Panthers (30th, 73rd)
Stevan Ridley, Patriots (31st, 74th): So underrated he's becoming a tad overrated.
Donald Brown, Colts (32nd, 79th): About to jump two tiers for me.
Cedric Benson, Packers (33rd, 80th): Same with him. He's their guy.


Tier 10
Kevin Smith, Lions (34th, 83rd): Durability is the problem.
Isaac Redman, Steelers (35th, 85th)
Toby Gerhart, Vikings (36th, 91st)
Michael Bush, Bears (37th, 92nd): I think Forte has a big year.
Mark Ingram, Saints (38th, 94th): Was drafted by the wrong offense.
C.J. Spiller, Bills (39th, 96th): Should catch many passes, PPR owners.


Tier 11
David Wilson, Giants (40th, 101st)
Felix Jones, Cowboys (41st, 102nd)
Mike Tolbert, Panthers (42nd, 109th): I think he hurts the quarterback's value for rushing scores more than Stewart.
Pierre Thomas, Saints (43rd, 110th)
LeGarrette Blount, Buccaneers (44th, 111th): Don't forget about him, because he will play.


Tier 12
Ryan Williams, Cardinals (45th, 114th)
Tim Hightower, Redskins (46th, 119th): Might start Week 1, or be outta work. Really.
Daniel Thomas, Dolphins (47th, 120th)
Mike Goodson, Raiders (48th, 121st)
Rashard Mendenhall, Steelers (49th, 126th): Wildly underrated if he starts by end of September.
James Starks, Packers (50th, 127th): On the verge of irrelevance, if he's not already there.
Kendall Hunter, 49ers (51st, 150th)


Tier 13
Bernard Pierce, Ravens (52nd, 161st)
Jahvid Best, Lions (53rd, 162nd): If only he didn't have the concussions. Nice to stash away.
Jacquizz Rodgers, Falcons (54th, 165th): He won't be Turner if Turner goes down.
Jonathan Dwyer, Steelers (55th, 166th)
Bernard Scott, Bengals (56th, 167th)


Tier 14
Isaiah Pead, Rams (57th, 173rd)
Shane Vereen, Patriots (58th, 174th)
Ronnie Hillman, Broncos (59th, 176th)
Evan Royster, Redskins (60th, 181st): If Helu isn't ready, Royster could rise fast.
Mikel Leshoure, Lions (61st, 182nd): Might be worth waiting for.
Delone Carter, Colts (62nd, 183rd)
Taiwan Jones, Raiders (63rd, 185th): Fast guy could be backup, but must stay healthy himself.
Rashad Jennings, Jaguars (64th, 186th): Yes, if MJD doesn't show up, moves up to perhaps Tier 8.


Tier 15
Ronnie Brown, Chargers (65th, 187th)
Brandon Jacobs, 49ers (66th, 188th)
Le'Ron McClain, Chargers (67th, 192nd): Touchdown sleeper like Tolbert last season.
Lamar Miller, Dolphins (68th, 193rd)
Jason Snelling, Falcons (69th, 196th)
Alex Green, Packers (70th, 197th): Another sleeper, but needs time.

 

[HacheMan]

Running back rankings by tiers

Eric Karabell

This week's blog entry on wide receiver tiers was such a resounding success, we've decided to keep the love going with running backs, as well. Some people have asked about quarterbacks and tight ends and, yes, even kickers, but the fact is I don't consider a tiered system truly valuable except for wide receivers and running backs.


The impetus behind separating players into tiers is to help a fantasy owner make quick decisions about scarcity of depth in the heat and rush of a draft or auction. As with wide receivers, if you're sitting there in the sixth round and can't decide what to do, if there are five players left in your top tier at one position but only one in another, the call is more obvious. It's also important to note that just because Hakeem Nicks is a Tier 4 wide receiver, it has no bearing on the running backs in the same number tier. That's what overall rankings are for, but this is about positional depth. Oh, and running back gets uglier much quicker.


As with wide receiver, we hope this is a helpful exercise and gets you ready for drafts. I would caution owners to make their own tiers and their own decisions, and use everything you see at ESPN Fantasy and in the draft kit as a guide, not gospel. They are, after all, your teams. After the player/team, you'll see my personal running back rankings and overall rank in parenthesis. Agree or disagree -- it's all good, after all -- and share your thoughts below, perhaps even convince me of the error of my ways! I'm also on Twitter @karabellespn. Enjoy!


<offer></offer>Tier 1
Arian Foster, Texans (1st RB, 1st overall)
Ray Rice, Ravens (2nd, 2nd)
LeSean McCoy, Eagles (3rd, 3rd): These are my first three picks off the board. No worries.


Tier 2
Maurice Jones-Drew, Jaguars (4th, 5th): Still not terribly worried, but talk to me in a week. I think it all gets settled.
Chris Johnson, Titans (5th, 6th): I think he bounces back strong, obvious from this nice ranking.


Tier 3
Marshawn Lynch, Seahawks (6th, 11th): I know who he is and what's he done to us. And still...
Matt Forte, Bears (7th, 12th): His new goal-line vulture doesn't scare me.


Tier 4
Darren McFadden, Raiders (8th, 20th): One of these years, he's fantasy's best.
DeMarco Murray, Cowboys (9th, 24th): Seven career starts, two touchdowns. Scary.
Jamaal Charles, Chiefs (10th, 25th)


Tier 5
Michael Turner, Falcons (11th, 26th): Went to high school with your grandfather. Not really.
Steven Jackson, Rams (12th, 28th): Not exactly a teenager himself. And his backup is in place.
Ryan Mathews, Chargers (13th, 29th): Yes, even if he misses two weeks of September.
Adrian Peterson, Vikings (14th, 31st): Do you feel lucky?
Darren Sproles, Saints (15th, 32nd): Safest guy in the tier, really.


Tier 6
Frank Gore, 49ers (16th, 36th)
Fred Jackson, Bills (17th, 38th)
Ahmad Bradshaw, Giants (18th, 39th)
Trent Richardson, Browns (19th, 40th): Wouldn't expect great September numbers.
Willis McGahee, Broncos (20th, 41st): A bit underrated.
Reggie Bush, Dolphins (21st, 44th): Fewer runs, more catches, but a full season again?


Tier 7
Peyton Hillis, Chiefs (22nd, 54th): Potential for big things. Nice flex choice.
BenJarvus Green-Ellis, Bengals (23rd, 57th)
Jonathan Stewart, Panthers (24th, 58th): I think he'll make his mark.


Tier 8
Roy Helu, Redskins (25th, 59th): On the verge of dropping about four tiers.
Ben Tate, Texans (26th, 60th): One injury away from Tier 2.
Beanie Wells, Cardinals (27th, 61st)
Doug Martin, Buccaneers (28th, 68th)


Tier 9
Shonn Greene, Jets (29th, 70th): Might not score much, but should run enough.
DeAngelo Williams, Panthers (30th, 73rd)
Stevan Ridley, Patriots (31st, 74th): So underrated he's becoming a tad overrated.
Donald Brown, Colts (32nd, 79th): About to jump two tiers for me.
Cedric Benson, Packers (33rd, 80th): Same with him. He's their guy.


Tier 10
Kevin Smith, Lions (34th, 83rd): Durability is the problem.
Isaac Redman, Steelers (35th, 85th)
Toby Gerhart, Vikings (36th, 91st)
Michael Bush, Bears (37th, 92nd): I think Forte has a big year.
Mark Ingram, Saints (38th, 94th): Was drafted by the wrong offense.
C.J. Spiller, Bills (39th, 96th): Should catch many passes, PPR owners.


Tier 11
David Wilson, Giants (40th, 101st)
Felix Jones, Cowboys (41st, 102nd)
Mike Tolbert, Panthers (42nd, 109th): I think he hurts the quarterback's value for rushing scores more than Stewart.
Pierre Thomas, Saints (43rd, 110th)
LeGarrette Blount, Buccaneers (44th, 111th): Don't forget about him, because he will play.


Tier 12
Ryan Williams, Cardinals (45th, 114th)
Tim Hightower, Redskins (46th, 119th): Might start Week 1, or be outta work. Really.
Daniel Thomas, Dolphins (47th, 120th)
Mike Goodson, Raiders (48th, 121st)
Rashard Mendenhall, Steelers (49th, 126th): Wildly underrated if he starts by end of September.
James Starks, Packers (50th, 127th): On the verge of irrelevance, if he's not already there.
Kendall Hunter, 49ers (51st, 150th)


Tier 13
Bernard Pierce, Ravens (52nd, 161st)
Jahvid Best, Lions (53rd, 162nd): If only he didn't have the concussions. Nice to stash away.
Jacquizz Rodgers, Falcons (54th, 165th): He won't be Turner if Turner goes down.
Jonathan Dwyer, Steelers (55th, 166th)
Bernard Scott, Bengals (56th, 167th)


Tier 14
Isaiah Pead, Rams (57th, 173rd)
Shane Vereen, Patriots (58th, 174th)
Ronnie Hillman, Broncos (59th, 176th)
Evan Royster, Redskins (60th, 181st): If Helu isn't ready, Royster could rise fast.
Mikel Leshoure, Lions (61st, 182nd): Might be worth waiting for.
Delone Carter, Colts (62nd, 183rd)
Taiwan Jones, Raiders (63rd, 185th): Fast guy could be backup, but must stay healthy himself.
Rashad Jennings, Jaguars (64th, 186th): Yes, if MJD doesn't show up, moves up to perhaps Tier 8.


Tier 15
Ronnie Brown, Chargers (65th, 187th)
Brandon Jacobs, 49ers (66th, 188th)
Le'Ron McClain, Chargers (67th, 192nd): Touchdown sleeper like Tolbert last season.
Lamar Miller, Dolphins (68th, 193rd)
Jason Snelling, Falcons (69th, 196th)
Alex Green, Packers (70th, 197th): Another sleeper, but needs time.

 

[HacheMan]

Which Saints RB has the most value?

By Tristan H. Cockcroft | ESPN.com

What are we to make of the New Orleans Saints' backfield?

Change is the name of the game in New Orleans this season.


No, that's not in reference to offensive player personnel. The Saints return the majority of their 2011 starting lineup intact.


That's a reference to the vastly different coaching staff -- at least for this season -- as a result of the Bountygate scandal that cost coach Sean Payton a year's suspension and his assistant head coach, Joe Vitt, a six-game suspension.


One of the reasons fantasy owners had found such a sense of comfort in owning members of the Saints offense during the past decade was the statistical stability exhibited during Payton's regime. In Payton's six seasons at the helm, the Saints never finished worse than sixth in total yards or 12th in points scored.


Now the Saints will make do, at least for the 2012 season, with offensive line coach Aaron Kromer leading the way for the first six weeks and Vitt taking over as interim head coach thereafter.


As any fantasy owner might know, change in the coaching ranks can mean a change in team performance.


It's for that reason that prospective fantasy owners of any of the Saints running back candidates might approach the bunch with enthusiasm or trepidation. This group placed only one back in the top 25 at the position in fantasy scoring in 2011: Darren Sproles (eighth). Some might fear that with change might come regression for, or a shifting of focus away from, the team's most productive running back. Others might hope it means new, larger opportunities for players such as Pierre Thomas (27th) or Mark Ingram (43rd).


Despite the change at head coach, the coaching personnel remain largely "Payton's people." There's no reason to expect radical shifts in philosophy.


Besides, the Saints' running back usage patterns from a year ago show that there's little to fear. With help from Hank Gargiulo of ESPN Stats & Information, let's examine the patterns of each of the four primary contenders for carries.


Darren Sproles

Sproles


Sproles is the one safe selection of the Saints' running backs, though not in the sense that he is a mortal lock to repeat his 176-point fantasy season of 2011. Sproles' fantasy point-per-touch ratio of 0.98 was a rarity in the history books -- the eighth-highest ratio since the NFL went to the 16-game schedule, harking back to the pre-merger days of Lenny Moore.


No, "safe" refers to a level of consistent reliability for which Sproles was known last season, having been one of eight running backs to manage 10 games with a double-digit fantasy score. In my 2011 Consistency Ratings, Sproles' 75 percent score placed him fourth overall at the position. That means that three out of every four times fantasy owners started him last season, he offered them a point total judged well worthy of starter's status (eight-plus points).


Thanks to the way the Saints utilize Sproles, using him in a multitude of formations including rolling him out wide, the prospect of a consistent volume of touches on a week-to-week basis minimizes any statistical downside. In 2011, on 170 of his 502 snaps he was lined up as a receiver -- 117 times he was in the slot, the other 53 times split wide.



Darren Sproles' 2011 Usage

<table><thead><tr><th style="vertical-align: bottom;"> </th><th style="vertical-align: bottom;"><center> Snaps </center></th><th style="vertical-align: bottom;"><center> % of team
plays </center></th></tr></thead><tbody><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> 1 yard to go </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 14 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 21.6% </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> 2 yards to go </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 36 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 31.9% </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Goal to go </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 28 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 36.4% </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Inside the 5 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 18 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 85.7% </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> 3rd down </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 136 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 65.4% </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> 3rd-and-long </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 76 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 78.4% </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> 1st-and-10 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 185 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 39.4% </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Pass plays </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 371 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 56.0% </td></tr></tbody></table>




Consider that the Saints lost one of their more proven receivers, Robert Meachem, to free agency during the offseason. Those are 63 targets that the Saints must fill, and while rookie Nick Toon, offseason acquisition Greg Camarillo and coming-off-injury Joseph Morgan might factor into the mix, not one should be placed on equal footing, skills-wise, with Meachem. Sproles' importance to the receiving game has not diminished at all since January.


Accounting for receiving and rushing, Sproles was critical on third downs, playing 73 percent of the team's total snaps. He finished seventh in receptions (25), second in yards after the catch (262, which led all running backs) and had the seventh-most overall touches (38). He played a whopping 78 percent of the team's snaps on third-and-long and is a brilliant player in those spots.


In fact, there's only one significant obstacle standing in Sproles' path of another outstanding season: a knee injury he suffered during the Aug. 9 preseason game, one likely to sideline him until the regular-season opener.


Mark Ingram

Ingram


Speaking of injury questions, Ingram has his share. He is coming off two surgeries -- a Jan. 6 operation on the big toe of his left foot (turf toe) and a May 3 knee scope, the second of his career on his left knee -- giving him three surgeries in the past 24 months. This preseason, he has been on an every-other-day practice pattern, participating fully one day, a limited participant the next.


An equally valid question with Ingram is one of usage: Why don't the Saints seem to know how to properly use his skills?


Most scouting reports on Ingram at the time he was selected 28th overall in the 2011 NFL draft painted the picture of a tough runner with good balance, capable of racking up yards after contact. He was the kind of player who, despite lacking breakaway speed, had a skill set suitable to be an all-around back but who might have been well served with a solid change-of-pace as his caddie.


Instead, the Saints seemed to regard him only as a bruising, short-yardage back during his rookie season, effectively treating him as a role player. The chart illustrates Ingram's usage patterns, revealing a disturbing reliance by the Saints upon him primarily to pick up one- or two-yard gains.



Mark Ingram's 2011 Usage

<table><thead><tr><th style="vertical-align: bottom;"> </th><th style="vertical-align: bottom;"><center> Snaps </center></th><th style="vertical-align: bottom;"><center> % of team
plays </center></th></tr></thead><tbody><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> 1 yard to go </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 30 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 46.2% </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> 2 yards to go </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 37 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 32.7% </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Goal to go </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 21 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 27.3% </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Inside the 5 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 15 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 71.4% </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> 3rd down </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 19 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 9.1% </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> 3rd-and-long </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 2 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 2.1% </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> 1st-and-10 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 103 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 21.9% </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Pass plays </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 79 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 11.9% </td></tr></tbody></table>




That's not to say that Ingram, all of 5-foot-9 and 215 pounds, shouldn't at times be asked to pick up those yards. The point is that the Saints are capping the upside, both real and fantasy, of what was supposed to be their franchise back. They need to use him more in space, and they're not doing so. As a result, he managed an underwhelming 2.9 yards per carry during the 2011 preseason, 3.9 during his rookie season of 2011 and 3.0 this preseason.


Here's the other problem: Ingram was no more effective in those short-yardage situations than his competition at running back. He managed only one touchdown on his four carries within an opponent's 5-yard line, and his 24.6 percent rate of picking up first downs trailed Sproles (31 percent), Chris Ivory (26.6 percent) and Thomas (25.5 percent). If the Saints tire of Ingram's ineffectiveness in those situations, he might find his role capped at nothing more than a change-of-pace back.


Ingram's supporters will point to reports that the Saints want to get Ingram at least 200 touches in 2012, suggesting his role should expand. But do the math. Ingram played 10 games last season and accumulated 133 touches. Project that to a healthy 16-game season and that's 213. Such chatter might not pertain to any type of role expansion; it might just be the Saints' hopes that he'll stay healthy.


Pierre Thomas

Thomas


Thomas is perhaps the most talented pure runner of the three, and the Saints seemed most comfortable falling back upon him in any situation. Check the usage chart; Thomas' numbers are remarkably balanced.


Still, there's that key phrase: "Falling back upon." To that end, Thomas tallied only 160 touches in 16 games, his 10 touch-per-game average trailing Ingram (13.3) and Sproles (10.8). When Thomas was tallying his team-leading seven carries-plus-targets within an opponent's 5-yard line last season, most of those opportunities came in games in which Ingram was absent.



Pierre Thomas' 2011 Usage

<table><thead><tr><th style="vertical-align: bottom;"> </th><th style="vertical-align: bottom;"><center> Snaps </center></th><th style="vertical-align: bottom;"><center> % of team
plays </center></th></tr></thead><tbody><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> 1 yard to go </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 14 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 21.6% </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> 2 yards to go </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 28 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 24.8% </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Goal to go </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 23 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 29.9% </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Inside the 5 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 18 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 85.7% </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> 3rd down </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 82 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 39.4% </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> 3rd-and-long </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 46 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 47.4% </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> 1st-and-10 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 166 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 35.3% </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Pass plays </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 252 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 38.1% </td></tr></tbody></table>




One might think that a player with a 5.1 yards-per-carry average last season, and 4.8 for his career, might warrant a larger slice of the rushing pie. But through five season of his NFL career, Thomas has never managed a season with a touches-per-game average greater than 18.7 (2010, when he played only six games). His career average in the category is a mere 10.9.


Here's the other problem: Thomas' workload was in no way tied to Ingram's health last season. In the six games Ingram missed, Thomas totaled 64 touches -- 10.7 per game, almost identical to his full-season average of 10. When Ingram went down, the Saints actually granted Chris Ivory a larger volume (13.2).


Chris Ivory

Ivory


Speaking of Ivory, he is the kind of bruiser whom, based on sheer makeup, the Saints could consider in those short-yardage chances should Ingram badly falter or get hurt. He got the call to play all six games that Ingram sat in 2011, though Ivory didn't make a single other appearance the entire season, mostly because he had been recovering from foot surgery and a sports hernia.


Ivory comes with more questions than the lot, though. For one, he is simply not as good a player as any of the other three, lacking vision and poor with ball control. The Saints also didn't give him a single look at the goal line in 2011, meaning that despite his powerful, move-the-pile profile, the team doesn't view him as much of a threat to Ingram's job security.


The upshot



Accounting for the Saints' 2011 usage patterns, their individual running backs' skill sets and the hazy injury scenarios for two of the candidates, a repeat of last season's mix-and-match backfield appears a virtual certainty.


Sproles might the one fantasy gem of the lot, particularly in PPR leagues, where his value gets a substantial boost due to the likelihood that he will finish the season ranked among the top 25 players -- not running backs, players -- in receptions. Perhaps he lacks the upside to warrant a selection any sooner than the fifth round, which is where the fantasy group ranked him and where he has been going on average in live drafts, but Sproles' downside probably isn't much less than that of a sixth-round pick, being that his role in this pass-friendly offense makes him a consistent candidate to score 10-12 fantasy points per week. If at all possible, pick him in the fifth, no sooner, no later.


Beyond that, however, fantasy owners who tab Ingram or Thomas in the late rounds are taking a chance that these new faces mean new opportunities for one specific player in New Orleans. That's something that, with all the evidence to the contrary, is an out-and-out guess. Guess candidates aren't especially smart selections until you have more than finished filling out your starting lineup -- reserve material usually picked up beyond the 10th round.


Sound familiar? It's all the makings of a carbon copy, statistically speaking, of 2011. But that makes sense, as the Saints stay the course until Payton's return.


As they say, the more things change, the more they stay the same.

 

[HacheMan]

Auction Draft Recap
Everyone has a different strategy when it comes to auction drafts. And that’s what makes them great.

Some people will blow their whole roll on a few stars and cobble together the rest of their team. Others will go for one big stud and some mid-level guys. A few owners will just go for mid-level value plays all draft long.

Last Thursday, a mix of fantasy insiders and diehards gathered for a 12-team auction mock. Our budget was $200 and we had 16 roster spots to fill. The scoring was standard with full PPR (point per reception) and the starting lineups were QB, RB, RB, WR, WR, WR, TE, FLEX, K D.

Here I have listed the first 36 purchases of the draft in the order they were called out. I've also included Mike Clay's final roster and his insight into strategy. In the Draft Guide, you’ll find the analysis of the rest of the draft and a breakdown of my strategy.

1. Calvin Johnson $44
2. Michael Vick $21
3. Mason Crosby $1
4. Dan Bailey $1
5. Sebastian Janikowski $1
6. Larry Fitzgerald $34
7. Jimmy Graham $35
8. Julio Jones $37
9. Arian Foster $60
10. Greg Jennings $27
11. 49ers D/ST $2
12. Stephen Gostkowski $1

13. Ray Rice $57
14. Philip Rivers $8
15. Drew Brees $28
16. Ryan Mathews $35
17. Steelers D/ST $1
18. Brandon Marshall $29
19. Texans D/ST $2
20. LeSean McCoy $56
21. Aaron Rodgers $41
22. Vernon Davis $11
23. David Akers $1
24. Antonio Gates $24

25. Trent Richardson $33
26. Alex Henery $1
27. Darren McFadden $51
28. Eagles D/ST $1
29. Rob Gronkowski $37
30. Matthew Stafford $28
31. Chris Johnson $52
32. Tom Brady $32
33. Cam Newton $30
34. Maurice Jones-Drew $30
35. Victor Cruz $29
36. Miles Austin $21

NOTES: If there’s a kicker or D/ST you really like, throwing him out early isn’t a bad play. If someone bids more than $2, they spent too much. If you get them for $1, you’re happy. … I knew I wanted Julio Jones so I called him out at my first chance. People could cap their spending early because there are so many other wideouts available. … Note that Rob Gronkowski went for $2 more than Jimmy Graham. That’s probably out of “tier fear.” It’s clear these two are in a class by themselves among tight ends, so once the first one goes, there is more pressure on owners to get the second one. … Arian Foster set the bar at $60 as the consensus No. 1 overall pick. That’s 30 percent of the budget, which should be fairly standard around most leagues. … Owners in this league were well aware of the scarcity theory at running back and quarterback. Note how relatively cheap the “elite” quarterbacks went for.

FOR THE REST OF THIS AUCTION DRAFT, CHECK OUT THE DRAFT GUIDE!

MIKE CLAY’S TEAM:
QB Eli Manning $11
RB Matt Forte $41
RB Steven Jackson $37
WR Greg Jennings $27
WR Miles Austin $21
WR Eric Decker $19
TE Antonio Gates $24
FLEX Tony Gonzalez $7
K David Akers $1
D/ST Bears $1

B Daniel Thomas $2
B Ronnie Hillman $3
B Michael Bush $1
B Isaiah Pead $2
B Laurent Robinson $2
B Rueben Randle $1

HIS STRATEGY
My strategy for this auction was the same one I follow for all auctions: Spend on starters.

Other than that, the goal is to patiently wait for values. I always create a budget for each position and try to stick to it as a best I can, but it’s important to be ready to make adjustments as necessary. My budget will allow for 40 percent of my money to go towards a pair of running backs – the shallowest and most important fantasy position.

In this auction, I feel like my strategy worked well. I was able to get a pair of top-12 backs, three strong wide receiver options with WR1 upside, a top-eight quarterback, and a top-three tight end.

The depth at quarterback was evident, as I was able to snag Eli Manning for only $11. Matt Forte ($41) was a solid price when you consider that five backs went for more than $50. Steven Jackson ($37) wasn’t a steal by any means, but a lot of cash was spent on backs in this auction, so I feel like I made out well.

My wide receivers are led by Greg Jennings ($27), Miles Austin ($21), and Eric Decker ($19). All three are in the WR2 conversation in PPR and there is significant upside here. If not for a bit of a bidding war with Josh Norris, I would’ve had Antonio Gates ($24) for under $20. Still, it’s not a bad deal. I went on to snag top-10 tight end Tony Gonzalez ($7) to help out in the flex.

Remember what I said about spending on starters? Here’s why. If you’ve been counting, you’ll notice that I’ve already spent $187 of my $200 cap. Add in another two bucks for a kicker (David Akers) and defense (Bears) and I’m left with $11 to spend on six bench spots.

Those six spots went to Ronnie Hillman ($3), Daniel Thomas ($2), Isaiah Pead ($2), Laurent Robinson ($2), Michael Bush ($1), and Rueben Randle ($1). Had I invested more cash in my bench, I wouldn’t be much better off and my starters would’ve suffered. Remember, everyone else is spending heavily early-and-often, so you don’t want to be left with too much cash late.

 

[HacheMan]

Silva's Latest Top 150 These rankings are likely to differ greatly from fantasy football cheatsheets you find elsewhere on the web and magazine storeshelves. The primary difference is my low quarterback slotting based on VBD (Value Based Drafting). I explained my quarterback take here and here. Rather than lead with another exhausting intro, let's cut to the chase for my latest rankings update.

Editor's Note: For the premier all-purpose fantasy football preparation mechanism on the world wide web, bang this link.

First Round

1. Arian Foster (ADP: 1st overall) -- Foster brings to the table elite talent and versatility, but workload and scheme separate him from McCoy and Rice. Foster has made 30 starts over the past three years, in them averaging 24.9 touches a game. McCoy has a 19.5-touch average across 34 starts. Rice has averaged 22.3 touches per start over those three seasons. The Texans have the run-heaviest offense in football, and their zone-blocking system is a well-oiled machine.

2. LeSean McCoy (ADP: 4th overall) -- McCoy doesn't get the rock quite as often as Rice or McFadden, but he's more efficient with his touches and plays in an offense I think will explode in a post-hype year. McCoy's fantasy running back ranking has improved in each of his three NFL seasons, and he's still just 24 years old. He's the only player I'd briefly consider taking over Foster.

3. Darren McFadden (ADP: 7th overall) -- Though its annual occurrence gives the mirage of a trend, DMC's injury history is rooted in bad luck. In exchange for a shot at the league-winning reward, I'm willing to make McFadden a top-three pick as an insanely talented every-down back whose path to goal-line carries is clear for the first time in his career. McFadden is so good that he could miss two games and still outscore the running back field. He is an awesome player.

4. Ray Rice (ADP: 2nd overall) -- Rice doesn't have quite the juice Foster, McCoy, and McFadden offer as a sheer running talent. But he is a durable workhorse who quietly may be headed for a career high in snaps considering the failure of a No. 2 running back to emerge in Baltimore. Third-round pick Bernard Pierce can't separate himself from UDFA Bobby Rainey.

5. Marshawn Lynch (ADP: Mid 2nd round) -- Lynch's position and volume lock him into upper-echelon fantasy value, and he's impressed with improved quickness and burst in August after cutting offseason weight. Despite his July DUI, Lynch no longer appears in danger of league suspension. The installation of rookie quarterback Russell Wilson will make Lynch all the more dangerous, and potentially devastating. OL coach Tom Cable's zone-run scheme showed the ability to take over games last season, and a dual-threat quarterback will increase the efficacy of outside zone runs. Look for Lynch to record a career-high yards-per-carry average this season.

6. Chris Johnson (ADP: 8th overall) -- I wrote a late-July column charting Johnson's 2011 snaps and detailing the collection of excuses offered for his career-worst year. I've watched his preseason and can say with certainty Johnson still possesses uncommon elusiveness and burst. I remain concerned that his heart will stay in it as Tennessee's interior offensive line continues to allow constant penetration. He's still a monster talent slated for a monster workload, though, and can be every bit worth the risk in the middle of the first round.

7. Calvin Johnson (ADP: 6th overall) -- Megatron is the only receiver valuable enough to draft in the first round, and that's because he's head and shoulders above the rest. He's the most physically dominant wideout in the game playing in the league's pass-heaviest offense with the NFL's strongest-armed QB. For "last year's stats" guys: Johnson scored over three more fantasy points per week than the No. 2 receiver (Jordy Nelson). Megatron gives you a huge edge.

8. DeMarco Murray (ADP: 12th overall) -- Dallas' interior line is a concern, but Murray lacks any hint of competition for carries and can compensate with pure volume. Assuming he gets good luck and stays healthy, Murray is a darkhorse to lead the league in rushing attempts. The Cowboys' passing game will likely start slow with Jason Witten and Miles Austin nursing injuries. Murray can be the early-season offensive centerpiece, and his passing-game role is sure to rise.

9. Steven Jackson (ADP: Late 2nd round) -- I've found Jackson to be among the league's most impressive runners through three weeks of preseason. Having dropped at least ten pounds, S-Jax has displayed improved quickness and speed while shedding the "hop-step" behind the line of scrimmage he bad-habited even in his prime. Jeff Fisher is going to run the ball early and often in St. Louis. I think Jackson may well approach the 379 touches Fisher gave Eddie George in his own age-29 season. I have a first-round fantasy grade on S-Jax, but he can be had in the second.

10. Jamaal Charles (ADP: Mid 2nd round) -- The Texans tied the Broncos for the 2011 league lead in rushing attempts. Denver will be a pass-first offense as Peyton Manning replaces Tim Tebow, and Kansas City now may be Houston's most viable competitor for the NFL's run-heaviest team. Workload should not be a major issue for Charles, who has avoided training-camp setbacks following last September's ACL tear while rediscovering pre-injury explosion and moves. Through three exhibition games, J.C. is averaging 5.08 yards a carry and 6.06 yards per touch.

11. Jimmy Graham (ADP: 14th overall) -- The first-round quarterback argument applies much more smoothly to tight ends. For the last-year's-stats crowd, Gronk scored nearly six more points per week than the No. 3 tight end. Graham, who finished second, scored 2.5 more points per week than No. 3. These tight ends tilt weekly scoring in a particular owner's favor and are unto a tier of their own. I like Graham to outscore Gronkowski ever so slightly because he's the clear-cut No. 1 option in his offense and blocks less. They are both late first-round picks.

12. Rob Gronkowski (ADP: Mid 2nd round) -- Barring injury, Gronkowski and Graham's 2011 catch and yardage totals are reliable barometers as to their 2012 production. Aside from perhaps Gronk's TDs, I don't think there will be dramatic downturn from either of their final-year stats. I think Antonio Gates has an outside chance to approach Gronk and Graham's catches and yards, and Aaron Hernandez, Jermichael Finley, and perhaps Vernon Davis will at least keep you competitive. But Gronk and Graham are weekly matchup tilters and every bit worth top-12 picks.

Second Round

13. Ryan Mathews (ADP: Late 2nd round) -- Fantasy footballers have every right to be shaken by Mathews' fractured collarbone considering his past durability woes. But the facts of the matter are it was a hard-luck injury, and Mathews is expected to miss no more than two games. Mathews was a top-seven weekly running back scorer with Mike Tolbert in the 2011 picture and won't struggle for top-five per-week statistics with Tolbert gone to Carolina. Commonly available throughout the second round of drafts, Mathews is a value pick anywhere beyond the top 14.

14. Julio Jones (ADP: Early 2nd round) -- If any receiver can give Calvin Johnson a run for the 2012 fantasy scoring lead, Jones is the NFL's best bet as a freakish talent becoming the featured player in a pass-first, up-tempo offense. Julio is going to shred defenses this season. Through roughly six preseason quarters, Jones has 13 catches for 240 yards and a touchdown.

15. Fred Jackson (ADP: Late 2nd round) -- Jackson isn't a "sexy" pick as a 31-year-old running back who plays in Buffalo. But the preseason has shown he remains locked in as the featured runner ahead of C.J. Spiller. Chan Gailey's Pistol Spread offense floods the field with four and five receivers, creating running lanes. F-Jax should be secure as a top-12 fantasy back.

16. Matt Forte (ADP: 11th overall) -- The No. 10 fantasy pick seems rich for a back who never got goal-line carries in the first place, and now threatens to lose precious open-field touches to Michael Bush. The Bears may look to "preserve" Forte a bit after committing big money to him.

17. Doug Martin (ADP: Late 3rd round) -- I've viewed each of Martin and LeGarrette Blount's August snaps, and there is no question that the rookie brings more to the table in every facet of the game. The Bucs know it, giving Martin six full possessions as the every-down back in their third preseason game, while Blount played a series. At worst, Martin will open the year as a 14-18 touch-per-week RB2 in Greg Schiano's run-first, smash-mouth offense. By October, Martin should be handling the ball 20-plus times a game. He is way better than Blount. RG Davin Joseph's year-ending knee injury is only a slight concern. While Joseph has a reputation as a mauler, Pro Football Focus graded him 68th out of 78 qualifying guards in run blocking last year.

18. Andre Johnson (ADP: Early 3rd round) -- This guy was a first-round pick last year. Johnson's 12 missed games over the past two seasons combined with an early-camp groin injury appear to have sunk his Average Draft Position, making him a value pick. He's lost nothing off his fastball, evidenced by three 90-plus yard efforts among his last four "real" games and preseason circus grabs in double coverage. Matt Schaub's surgical August instills even more confidence.

19. Larry Fitzgerald (ADP: Late 2nd round) -- Fitz drafters and keeper-league owners need John Skelton to win Arizona's quarterback job. The Cardinals' signal caller must accomplish two tasks: 1) Stand tall as his pocket inevitably collapses behind a sieve of an offensive line, and 2) Get the ball to Fitzgerald. When Skelton played more extensively in 2011 games, Fitz averaged 94 yards per contest. His per-game average fell to 82 yards with Kevin Kolb under center.

20. Dez Bryant (ADP: Early 4th round) -- I think Julio Jones has the best shot at unseating Calvin Johnson for the receiver fantasy scoring lead. I think Dez is the best bet to challenge for Johnson's receiving touchdown crown. Particularly with Jason Witten (spleen) and Miles Austin (hamstring) nursing worrisome injuries, Bryant is headed for a target-heavy breakout season.

21. A.J. Green (ADP: Early 3rd round) -- Andy Dalton's rough preseason is cause for some pause, but Green is dynamic enough to be quarterback-proof. Green can "go get" poorly placed passes, and Dalton has shown a willingness in August to throw it to him up for grabs. Green is a sneaky candidate to lead the league in targets. The Bengals really have no one else.

22. Antonio Gates (ADP: Late 4th round) -- Fantasy owners should wait until the third round to even begin considering Gates in light of his late fourth-round Average Draft Position, but I'm confident he'll meet expectations and then some. Philip Rivers has lost something off his deep ball, and Gates is still capable of dominating underneath. I expect him to lead San Diego in pass targets, receptions, receiving yards, and touchdowns, and to rank third among fantasy tight ends.

23. Hakeem Nicks (ADP: Early 4th round) -- Even after Victor Cruz's breakout year, Nicks is the Giants' best receiver. I think he's a value pick at his current ADP. His spring foot injury no longer an issue, Nicks has resumed practicing in 11-on-11s and will be 100 percent for Week 1.

24. Adrian Peterson (ADP: 13th overall) -- Peterson's recovery has proceeded smoothly by all accounts, but I remain skeptical that he stands any chance of living up to his top-of-round-two Average Draft Position coming off ACL and MCL tears with damage to both meniscuses. He's someone I'd let another owner draft. Peterson isn't going to be a full-time back early in the season even if he's active for games, and the possibility of setbacks remains as he begins to face contact.
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Third Round

25. Cam Newton (ADP: Mid 2nd round) -- Forget, for a minute, last year's rushing TDs and whether they're "repeatable." Newton is the most physically dominant young player in football, and I think it's only a matter of time (this year or next) before he takes over as the overall fantasy scoring leader and consensus No. 1 pick. Perhaps I'm a year early, but I'll be betting on this player going forward. I like Cam as the No. 1 fantasy quarterback, passing Rodgers, Brady, and Brees.

26. Aaron Rodgers (ADP: 3rd overall) -- Rodgers is the best player in the NFL. I have a third-round fantasy grade on him because he plays a deep position in a passing league where each year numerous passers emerge from the middle- and late-round woodwork to score at "elite" rates. I think Newton, Rodgers, Brady, Brees, Vick, Stafford, and Ryan will provide first-tier 2012 production. I'd much rather grab Vick or Ryan while trying for this year's Stafford or Newton later in the draft than blow my early-round wad on a quarterback. It's basic Supply & Demand.

27. Tom Brady (ADP: 5th overall) -- I was asked recently which quarterback I think offers the highest upside at quarterback, which the highest "floor," and which the best combination of upside and floor. My answer to the latter two queries was Brady. I answered Newton to the first.

28. Drew Brees (ADP: 9th overall) -- Seven straight seasons of top-six quarterback stats lock in Brees as an elite producer even without Robert Meachem and Carl Nicks. The additional loss of Sean Payton is not a concern for Brees' fantasy outlook. OC Pete Carmichael returns, and the 2011 offense averaged 36 more yards and over seven more points per game with Carmichael calling plays. Carmichael did so from Week 7 on, after Payton blew out his knee on the sideline.

29. Michael Vick (ADP: Early 5th round) -- Vick's ADP has been torpedoed by a perfect storm of factors. One legion of owners simply does not believe in Vick. Never did. Another legion bought on Vick last season, and came away disappointed. A third legion has watched this year's preseason games. Vick got nicked up in each of the first two weeks, so he obviously can't stay healthy. Aggressive, forward-looking fantasy owners will pounce on Vick in the third or fourth round. He's a weekly difference maker, and he is the No. 1 value pick quarterback in 2012 drafts.

30. Matthew Stafford (ADP: 11th overall) -- I banged the table for Stafford as a value pick in 2011 drafts, and he rewarded "risk" takers with a top-five quarterback season at the cost of a seventh-round pick. Now a full year removed from injury, Stafford's ADP takes him off my radar. Fantasy drafts are a value game, and I'd rather target Vick or Matt Ryan several rounds later.

31. Percy Harvin (ADP: Mid 4th round) -- Chris Wesseling recently suggested that the Vikings' 2012 offense could be a sneaky goldmine for fantasy value. My offseason game reviews of Christian Ponder uncovered a better-than-advertised arm, and Harvin was an absolute machine after Ponder took the reins as a rookie, averaging well over 100 yards per game with seven TDs in the final seven weeks. Harvin is being drafted as a WR2, but he's the rare receiver who can score like a WR1 in both PPR and non-PPR formats. Ponder is willing to force feed him the football.

32. Brandon Lloyd (ADP: Late 4th round) -- The Patriots' offense will go deep more as Josh McDaniels replaces Bill O'Brien, and Lloyd will benefit from single coverage while defenses key up to stop Gronkowski, Hernandez, and Welker. Lloyd's Average Draft Position has risen with Rotoworld pumping him up, but he's still worth it in the mid to late fourth round. He'll be drafted as a WR2 and score like a WR1. I don't find Lloyd's quiet preseason (three targets, one catch) to be a concern because New England clearly has not taken these exhibition games seriously.

33. Steve Smith (ADP: Mid 4th round) -- Defenses schemed to take away Smith down last season's stretch, but it didn't end well for opponents. Carolina won four of its final six games -- three by blowout -- while playing playoff teams Detroit and Atlanta tough. Teams will have to figure out different ways to defend this offense, which ranked seventh in the NFL in 2011 and looks like a top-five unit for 2012. Smith returns as the featured player in Rob Chudzinski's vertical scheme.

34. Brandon Marshall (ADP: Early 3rd round) -- Hype was heavy on Marshall after a pair of long catches in Chicago's second preseason game, but there are a few things to remember. His value has always been superior in PPR compared to standard because he struggles in the red zone and doesn't go deep. I think Marshall is being a bit overrated in TD- and yard-heavy leagues.

35. Jordy Nelson (ADP: Late 3rd round) -- As alluded to previously, only Calvin Johnson scored more fantasy points among receivers than Nelson in 2011. While Nelson's efficiency stats were seemingly flukily off the charts, I think he has legitimately developed into a top-ten NFL wide receiver and will continue to outscore teammate Greg Jennings. Rodgers shows impressive trust in Nelson by throwing him the ball in up-for-grabs situations. I think he's every bit worth his ADP.

36. Jeremy Maclin (ADP: Late 5th round) -- In another case of fantasy leaguers relying on last year's stats, Maclin is shaping up as one of the premier value picks at receiver. We're quick to forget he had the look of a future All Pro in 2010, before Maclin's 2011 performance was affected by mysterious offseason illness, leading to significant weight loss. Maclin is Vick's best red-zone target, and clearly a more complete wideout than DeSean Jackson. He has a boatload of upside.

Fourth Round

37. Aaron Hernandez (ADP: Mid 5th round) -- Reports out of Foxboro that Hernandez may emerge as Tom Brady's No. 1 pass option are promising, and there are few tight ends with higher "floors." When you get past Graham, Gronk, and Gates in your draft, Hernandez at the very least keeps you competitive week to week with a high volume of touches and plenty of playmaking ability in a high-scoring offense. If the beat writers' suggestions are correct, Hernandez will do much more than that. Jermichael Finley and Vernon Davis are next in line. Finley's on-field play can be maddeningly inconsistent, and San Francisco's run-first philosophy holds Davis back.

38. Antonio Brown (ADP: Early 5th round) -- The game tape shows Brown to be not as dynamic as Mike Wallace, and certainly not of similar ilk in the minds of opposing defensive coordinators. But we are projecting stats here, not debating the on-field impact of double and triple teams. Wallace's impending return is good news for Brown's fantasy outlook. Wallace will continue to command heavy coverage while Brown guts secondaries inside the numbers. I really like Brown as a WR2 in what may be a more pass-happy Pittsburgh offense than people expect. Brown has showed off his own impressive talent with 11 preseason receptions for 204 yards and three touchdowns, averaging 18.5 yards per catch.

39. Roddy White (ADP: Mid 3rd round) -- The fantasy owners still drafting White in the second and third rounds haven't paid enough attention. While White should continue to see a healthy dose of targets in Atlanta's pass-heavy offense, even Roddy himself admits Julio Jones will be the featured player in Dirk Koetter's attack. Jones is a WR1. White is a middling WR2 who doesn't provide enough value to support his lofty late-August ADP.

40. Marques Colston (ADP: Late 4th round) -- Colston missed two games last year and still ranked 11th among fantasy receivers. He was eighth in wideout scoring per game. Those are legitimate WR1 numbers. Though Jimmy Graham has overtaken him as the Saints' top receiver, New Orleans' pass-happy attack allows plenty of volume for two upper-echelon fantasy producers. Be it with PPR or non-PPR settings, I think you're in great shape if you secure Colston as a WR2.

41. Victor Cruz (ADP: Late 3rd round) -- If Cruz has any edge on teammate Nicks, it is superior versatility. Cruz can play X, Z, and slot receiver, running a diverse and full route tree in OC Kevin Gilbride's vertical offense. Nicks primarily sticks to the sideline, securing just about everything thrown his way with body control and massive mitts. I think Nicks will score more like the WR1 this year, but Cruz won't be too far off. He's another terrific WR2 regardless of format.

42. Greg Jennings (ADP: Mid 3rd round) -- A precision route runner who moves around the formation more than you might think, Jennings was a top-ten receiver before succumbing to a regular season-ending knee injury after 13 games in 2011. In these rankings, I gave Jordy Nelson the slight edge on Jennings in 2012 projected scoring. But I really think it could go either way.

43. Eric Decker (ADP: Early 6th round) -- Chris Wesseling has banged the table for Decker over Demaryius Thomas since long before camp, and after viewing each of the Broncos' three preseason games, I'm jumping on board. Thomas is still learning to run pass patterns, while Decker already knows how and is getting open at will. I think he can be a target monster this year.

44. Demaryius Thomas (ADP: Mid 5th round) -- I still love Thomas, though. An incredibly tightly wound receiver at 6-foot-3 and over 230 pounds, Thomas refuses to go down on first contact and his rapport with Peyton Manning should grow by the week. Based on physical tools and skill set, it's certainly fair to argue that Thomas offers superior upside to Decker. I think Demaryius' baseline is back-end WR2 stats. He looks to me like a "safe" fifth-round fantasy pick.

45. Maurice Jones-Drew (ADP: Mid 2nd round) -- Jones-Drew is still being drafted as if he's going to be just fine. The history of holdout running backs suggests there's little chance of that, and Rashad Jennings' impressive preseason bodes especially poorly for MJD's odds of seeing a workload remotely resembling last year's. There is a ton of risk in drafting Jones-Drew, and I don't think the possible reward is worth it. While his Average Draft Position has fallen five spots since just last Thursday, I wouldn't even consider taking MJD before the fourth round.

46. Darren Sproles (ADP: Mid 3rd round) -- It's still difficult to grasp relying on a standard-league back as an every-week starter when he's not even a lock for 100-plus carries. A very new-wave player, Sproles qualifies because he catches so many passes and is second in line for red-zone work in New Orleans' backfield, essentially rotating there with Mark Ingram. Receptions gain more yards than rushing attempts, anyway, and Sproles has a "floor" of around 6-7 touchdowns.

47. Dwayne Bowe (ADP: Late 5th round)

48. Wes Welker (ADP: Mid 3rd round)

Fifth Round

49. Matt Ryan (ADP: Early 4th round)

50. Trent Richardson (ADP: Mid 3rd round) -- Throw out for a moment the fact that Richardson's knee problems are recurring. His absence from most of training camp and the entire preseason almost certainly removes Richardson from passing-down consideration, and there are no guarantees on his early-season, early-down workload, either. I love Richardson's ability and think his offensive line is capable of plowing big holes, but I don't think he's going to get the ball more than 16 times a game. He's an early fifth-round fantasy pick to me. A dicey, limited RB2.

51. Ahmad Bradshaw (ADP: Early 4th round)

52. Jermichael Finley (ADP: Early 6th round)

53. Mike Wallace (ADP: Late 4th round) -- I love Wallace's talent. I think he is better than Antonio Brown. But after missing Todd Haley's offensive install by holding out of OTAs and the first month of camp, Wallace has just two weeks to learn Haley's system on the fly. My concern is Wallace will open the year as a clear-out receiver, running deep patterns to take coverage while Brown racks up stats underneath. I'm worried Wallace will be very inconsistent. I hope I'm wrong.

54. Vernon Davis (ADP: Mid 6th round)

55. Vincent Jackson (ADP: Early 6th round)

56. Kevin Smith (ADP: Mid 6th round) -- Smith's Saturday night ankle injury is a reminder that durability is an ongoing concern. But he is a terrific fit for the Lions' passing-based offense and will play heavy doses of snaps so long as he's healthy. I'd take Smith in the late fifth or sixth round and feel good about him as my RB2. I'm really not worried about Mikel Leshoure.

57. Willis McGahee (ADP: Early 5th round)

58. Frank Gore (ADP: Early 4th round) -- I'd rather take Kendall Hunter in the 12th round. Gore's passing-game role has evaporated in Jim Harbaugh's offense (17 catches in '11), and he's slated to lose goal-line work to Brandon Jacobs while Hunter and LaMichael James steal open-field snaps. I think Gore has a shot at RB2 value for the season's first month and a half, but expect his field time to dwindle down the stretch with Hunter eventually taking over as lead back.

59. Stevan Ridley (ADP: Late 6th round) -- I must not have been the only one watching the Patriots' third preseason game Saturday night against the Bucs. Ridley's ADP has since leaped from the mid-seventh round into the late sixth. Ridley dominated first-team work with the Tom Brady group, piling up 16 carries for 87 yards (5.4 YPC) and multiple red-zone chances, including a goal-line score. He also caught three passes. Meanwhile, Shane Vereen exited with a foot injury. Ridley's week-to-week consistency may sting some during the season as the Patriots adapt their rushing attack to account for opponents based on game plans, but I think Ridley is going to score a lot of touchdowns and be much more effective than BenJarvus Green-Ellis in the same early-down plowhorse role. Ridley's violent, decisive running style is very easy to like.

60. Stevie Johnson (ADP: Early 6th round)
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Sixth Round

61. Reggie Wayne (ADP: Late 6th round)

62. Torrey Smith (ADP: Late 6th round)

63. Reggie Bush (ADP: Late 4th round)

64. Jonathan Stewart (ADP: Late 7th round) -- I'm not adjusting Stewart's ranking, for now, but keep an eye on his ankle injury from Sunday night. He left on a cart and looks questionable for Week 1.

65. Peyton Hillis (ADP: Late 5th round)

66. DeSean Jackson (ADP: Mid 5th round)

67. Michael Turner (ADP: Late 3rd round)

68. Kenny Britt (ADP: Late 7th round)

69. Ryan Williams (ADP: Late 7th round)

70. Miles Austin (ADP: Late 6th round)

71. Mark Ingram (ADP: Mid 8th round) -- Ingram interests me as a standard-league RB2/flex because he's looked awfully good in preseason action while retaining a stranglehold on red-zone carries in New Orleans' high-scoring offense. Ingram disappointed a ton of owners last season, keeping the Average Draft Position very low on a legitimate threat for 10-12 rushing TDs.

72. Pierre Garcon (ADP: Early 7th round)

Seventh Round

73. Ben Tate (ADP: Early 7th round)

74. Rashad Jennings (ADP: Early 8th round)

75. Donald Brown (ADP: Mid 5th round)

76. Greg Little (ADP: Early 10th round)

77. Tony Romo (ADP: Late 6th round) -- Romo's Average Draft Position was screaming toward the fourth round early in training camp, but it's understandably cooled off with so many injuries around him. Jason Witten (spleen) is likely to miss Week 1 and may not be healthy early in the season. Miles Austin's hamstring problems are recurring. The interior of Dallas' offensive line looks worse than last year's, if that's possible. Despite Saturday night's preseason destruction of the Rams, I wouldn't want Romo as my fantasy starter.

78. Eli Manning (ADP: Mid 5th round)

79. Philip Rivers (ADP: Early 7th round)

80. Fred Davis (ADP: Late 8th round) -- I usually recommend caution about slow preseason stats for established fantasy commodities, but Davis has been an afterthought in the Washington offense through three preseason games, catching his two targets for 16 yards. I think Pierre Garcon has a chance to be a top-ten receiver in targets, and Kyle Shanahan may run more than he has in years past. Davis can still be a back-end TE1, but I want a difference maker at tight end this season and am willing to invest a high pick.

81. Titus Young (ADP: Mid 7th round)

82. Toby Gerhart (ADP: Late 9th round)

83. Shonn Greene (ADP: Mid 6th round) -- I mentioned the effect of a passing league on fantasy statistics in my last column's introduction. It has deepened the receiver and quarterback fields. At the same time, the passing league has allowed pass-catching running backs to lap early-down plodders, particularly those who don't play in high-scoring offenses. Shonn Greene is precisely the kind of running back to avoid in 2012 fantasy drafts. He doesn't catch passes, plays in a brutal offense, and lacks big-play ability to compensate. You're in trouble if he's your RB2.

84. Peyton Manning (ADP: Mid 6th round)

Eighth Round

85. Denarius Moore (ADP: Mid 9th round)

86. C.J. Spiller (ADP: Early 8th round)

87. Kyle Rudolph (ADP: Mid 13th round) -- Rudolph's ADP is still in the flier-pick range, but he shouldn't be considered a flier anymore. If there is a late-round tight end capable of leaping into the Hernandez/Finley/Davis tier, it's the one in Minnesota. Rudolph should be Ponder's No. 1 red-zone target and No. 2 in the open field, behind Harvin. He's got a leg up on the Jared Cooks of the world as an established, every-down tight end. Rudolph isn't just a passing-down specialist.

88. Darrius Heyward-Bey (ADP: Late 8th round)

89. DeAngelo Williams (ADP: Late 8th round)

90. Michael Bush (ADP: Mid 8th round)

91. BenJarvus Green-Ellis (ADP: Late 4th round) -- The Bengals' 2011 offense preyed on weak early-season defenses before circling the drain against their tough AFC North foes. I think Cincinnati will struggle this year more than most people anticipate, to the extent that they'll often be playing from behind. That would mean more field time for Bernard Scott and third-down back Brian Leonard, and less for the one-dimensional Law Firm. Already short on running talent and completely devoid of big-play ability, Green-Ellis is an obvious "avoid" in 2012 drafts.

92. Ben Roethlisberger (ADP: Mid 9th round)

93. David Wilson (ADP: Mid 8th round)

94. Beanie Wells (ADP: Early 7th round)

95. Justin Blackmon (ADP: Mid 7th round)

96. Andrew Luck (ADP: Early 10th round)

Ninth Round

97. Cedric Benson (ADP: Late 5th round) -- Benson will open the season as the favorite for carries in Green Bay's backfield, but pedestrian talent and questionable scheme fit are working against him. Benson can't pass block or catch to save his life, and Packers backs must be able to play in the passing game in order to earn regular playing time. Benson may offer early-season RB3/flex value, but he'll be a liability in PPR leagues while gradually ceding snaps to Alex Green. It's worth noting that in a matter of five days, Benson's ADP has skyrocketed from the seventh round into the fifth. No thanks.

98. Alfred Morris (ADP: Undrafted)

99. Jason Witten (ADP: Early 8th round)

100. Jay Cutler (ADP: Late 7th round)

101. Roy Helu (ADP: Late 9th round)

102. Jake Locker (ADP: Early 13th round)

103. Robert Meachem (ADP: Mid 8th round)

104. Michael Crabtree (ADP: Mid 11th round)

105. Jacquizz Rodgers (ADP: Early 9th round)

106. Kendall Wright (ADP: Mid 10th round)

107. Evan Royster (ADP: Early 11th round)

108. Robert Griffin III (ADP: Late 8th round)
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Tenth Round

109. Brandon LaFell (ADP: Late 10th round) -- LaFell and Legedu Naanee rotated as Carolina's No. 2 receiver in 2011, combining for a final stat line of 80/1,080/4. LaFell now has the job all to himself. While LaFell is unlikely to repeat those statistics on his own, he does offer intriguing breakout appeal in the Panthers' aggressive, vertical offense. He's an ideal WR4 pick.

110. Austin Collie (ADP: Mid 12th round) -- Collie's latest concussion understandably sent his ADP back down the drain just as he was beginning to look like the best receiver value going in drafts. There are no guarantees for a player concussed four times in a 21-month span, but I still like Collie's upside at the price of a WR5. I think he can lead Indy in catches and yards if he gains medical clearance. To date, there are no indications that Collie will be shut down.

111. Kendall Hunter (ADP: Late 11th round)

112. Isaiah Pead (ADP: Mid 13th round)

113. Malcom Floyd (ADP: Mid 8th round)

114. Carson Palmer (ADP: Mid 11th round)

115. Jacob Tamme (ADP: Early 8th round)

116. Nate Washington (ADP: Early 9th round)

117. Greg Olsen (ADP: Mid 11th round)

118. Randall Cobb (ADP: Late 10th round)

119. Tony Gonzalez (ADP: Late 9th round)

120. Anquan Boldin (ADP: Late 8th round)

Eleventh Round

121. Joe Flacco (ADP: Early 11th round) -- Flacco is capable of a breakout season if arch-conservative playcaller Cam Cameron continues his use of the no-huddle offense when the real games start. In Atlanta last year, we saw coach Mike Smith put brakes on the Falcons' intent to use the no-huddle after a prolific preseason. Smith has relented this year, but will Cameron?

122. Sidney Rice (ADP: Mid 11th round)

123. Russell Wilson (ADP: Late 13th round -- I caught Wilson's start against Kansas City on review Sunday and have now watched all his August snaps. He plays with controlled urgency, doing everything on the football field fast and keeping defenses off balance with devastating play fakes on top of dangerous athleticism. Wilson is an accurate thrower, largely unbothered by pressure. I believe he'll be a quality rookie starter who's even better in fantasy than real life.

124. Lance Moore (ADP: Early 10th round)

125. Isaac Redman (ADP: Late 7th round)

126. LeGarrette Blount (ADP: Early 10th round)

127. Jared Cook (ADP: Mid 12th round)

128. Randy Moss (ADP: Late 9th round) -- Moss still has enough straight-line speed to threaten defenses vertically on occasion, but he's a poor fit for weak-armed Alex Smith in a run-heavy offense. News that Moss may only play 20-25 snaps per game, rotating with Mario Manningham, could lead to maddening inconsistency. I wouldn't want him on my fantasy roster.

129. Santonio Holmes (ADP: Mid 10th round)

130. Brandon Pettigrew (ADP: Mid 8th round)

131. Alex Green (ADP: Undrafted) -- An October ACL tear should make most leery of Green's chances at significant 2012 fantasy impact, but he's clearly bypassed James Starks and has a leg up on Cedric Benson from the standpoint that Green excels in the passing game. The Packers are a passing team. It's not crazy to think the lead back job can be Green's by midyear.

132. Mike Williams (ADP: Late 10th round) -- I'd feel a lot better about Williams if I felt better about the Buccaneers' passing game. Vincent Jackson should be able to get his stats, but Josh Freeman's struggles have continued while learning new OC Mike Sullivan's offense. The Bucs will be a run-heavy team featuring Doug Martin and V-Jax. Williams may be an afterthought.

Twelfth Round

133. Pierre Thomas (ADP: Late 11th round)

134. Bernard Scott (ADP: Undrafted)

135. Davone Bess (ADP: Undrafted)

136. Christian Ponder (ADP: Undrafted)

137. Ryan Fitzpatrick (ADP: Late 12th round)

138. Jermaine Gresham (ADP: Early 11th round)

139. Matt Schaub (ADP: Late 9th round) -- Don't let the hot preseason trick you. While it's good news for the value of Andre Johnson, Schaub's fantasy ceiling is severely limited by the Texans' run-heavy ways. You want no part of him as a fantasy starter, and there are better QB2s.

140. Alshon Jeffery (ADP: Mid 11th round)

141. Braylon Edwards (ADP: Undrafted)

142. Danny Amendola (ADP: Late 9th round)

143. Josh Freeman (ADP: Early 12th round)

144. Lamar Miller (ADP: Undrafted)

Thirteenth Round

133. Felix Jones (ADP: Mid 13th round) -- Jones secured his roster spot with a solid showing in the third preseason game (eight touches, 57 yards), but he's been all but deleted from the first-team offense. He's a dicey handcuff for entrenched every-down back DeMarco Murray.

145. Vick Ballard (ADP: Undrafted)

147. Robert Turbin (ADP: Mid 13th round)

148. Owen Daniels (ADP: Early 13th round)

149. Emmanuel Sanders (ADP: Early 14th round) -- Sanders would have been a lot more intriguing had Mike Wallace held out into the regular season. With Wallace caving, Sanders will return to the slot in Todd Haley's offense, operating as a part-time player. He's still a worthy WR5 who could ascend to every-week WR3 production if Wallace or Antonio Brown were to get injured.

150. Mikel Leshoure (ADP: Mid 10th round)

Left out of Top 150: Broncos RB Ronnie Hillman, Patriots RB Shane Vereen, Rams WRs Brian Quick and Steve Smith, Colts TE Coby Fleener, Steelers RBs Rashard Mendenhall and Jonathan Dwyer, Bengals QB Andy Dalton, Jaguars WR Laurent Robinson, Packers RB James Starks, Redskins WRs Leonard Hankerson and Santana Moss, Jets TE Dustin Keller, Raiders RBs Mike Goodson and Taiwan Jones, Vikings WR Jerome Simpson, Ravens RB Bernard Pierce, Redskins RB Tim Hightower, Seahawks WR Doug Baldwin, Eagles TE Brent Celek, 49ers WR Mario Manningham, Dolphins RB Daniel Thomas, Chiefs WR Jon Baldwin, Browns TE Jordan Cameron, Colts WR LaVon Brazill, Dolphins WR Brian Hartline, Cardinals WR Michael Floyd.

 

[HacheMan]

Russell Wilson's fantasy prospects

Eric Karabell

This was already shaping up to be a record-breaking season in terms of rookie quarterbacks getting the opportunity to start right away, so it was no surprise that Seattle Seahawks coach Pete Carroll added to the youngster intrigue by naming Russell Wilson his Week 1 starter Sunday night.


The Seahawks made plenty of news over the weekend, trading former starting quarterback Tarvaris Jackson to the Buffalo Bills and cutting retread wide receiver Terrell Owens, but those guys didn't matter in fantasy. Wilson might.


He is a rookie, though, and an undersized one at that. Despite the terrific statistics he has produced this preseason -- the top passer rating of 119.4 -- fantasy owners shouldn't go overboard. Wilson has running ability and showed accuracy on deep throws over the weekend, and he has easily outplayed the far-richer expected starter Matt Flynn. But can we really compare Wilson to the other hotshot rookie quarterbacks who are starting, the other four of which were first-round picks? Well, yeah, why can't we? Who cares what round they were drafted?

It's not ticketing Wilson for the Hall of Fame to call him a reasonable backup quarterback for your fantasy team, a sheer upside play, assuming your starter is a rock-solid option such as Tom Brady or Drew Brees. If you have Ben Roethlisberger, I would secure a safer, more reliable backup.


I haven't moved Wilson into my top 20 quarterbacks, but in a 10-team league, where free agency will be littered with the likes of Ryan Fitzpatrick, Carson Palmer and perhaps even Joe Flacco and Alex Smith, I can see the reasoning, because the upside play is a wise move. I've been stating for months that while I do not see Robert Griffin III, for example, doing anything like what Cam Newton did last season, there's little downside to finding out, assuming you don't need a reliable backup signal-caller.


It's easy to envision Andrew Luck and Griffin mattering in fantasy right away -- Luck with his arm and the possibility of using it to flirt with 4,000 passing yards and Griffin with his legs. These fellows met Saturday, with each playing well. Have you seen the Indianapolis defense? Luck is good, and he'll be throwing a lot. Griffin is poised to thrive as well, since he is probably his team's top running back. It'd be nice if Luck and Griffin had better weapons and didn't figure to be among the interception leaders, but if you already have a safe starting quarterback, you can always find a Week 9 starter for when Brady sits.


So go ahead and grab Wilson as your backup. I'd still take Luck and Griffin over him, but not Brandon Weeden and Ryan Tannehill, the other first-round rookie quarterbacks slated to start. (Nick Foles could join them if Michael Vick slips on stairs this week and needs MRI No. 34 of the preseason.) I'm skeptical Wilson will perform at a high level in September against defensive starters, but in a keeper format, I'd certainly take a chance with a late pick. Taking Fitzpatrick just doesn't have the same cache, and I can always add him or a Matt Cassel type in October.


Like all the rookies, Wilson will make plenty of mistakes and fantasy owners will feel it, but one difference between him and Luck, Griffin, Tannehill and Weeden is that those rookies don't have someone with Flynn's guaranteed money lurking on the bench. Those four fellows also don't play in the NFC West. The pressure is on Wilson to perform right away, because his team has legitimate playoff aspirations. Fantasy owners shouldn't have been overrating Flynn on the basis of one magical six-touchdown performance in Week 17 to start with, but you better believe if Wilson struggles, Flynn will get his chance. That scenario seems less likely for Luck and backup Drew Stanton, for example.


• As for the other Seahawks news, I can't make a case that Seattle dumping Owens helps Sidney Rice, Braylon Edwards or Doug Baldwin, because those guys were always ahead on the depth chart anyway. Rice finally played this weekend, and we hope for 16 games but shouldn't expect it. Regardless, the Owens situation has little impact.


• Trading Jackson to Buffalo also means little. For one, he is not very good. He wasn't making the Seahawks roster. He is Fitzpatrick's backup, but there's no need to handcuff that situation (or any at QB). It looks as if Vince Young won't be making the Bills now. Fantasy owners will be devastated.

• There was one game Sunday night, with a key injury that might shake up the running back rankings, as Carolina Panthers starter Jonathan Stewart was carted away with an ankle injury. Early reports indicate it was precautionary, but we'll certainly follow up if it's serious. If Stewart were to miss games, the stock for DeAngelo Williams would go up. Then again, with Newton taking the rushing touchdowns and Mike Tolbert a factor, even if Stewart went away I wouldn't rank Williams anywhere near the top 10, perhaps not the top 20 either. And Stewart, as of now, isn't going away.


• It doesn't take much for fantasy owners to bump players up or down their rankings, so expect Denver Broncos quarterback Peyton Manning to move up this week. Manning was 10-for-12 with two touchdowns (his first of the preseason) Sunday, shredding the No. 1 San Francisco 49ers defense. This is the preseason and should never be overrated, and I'm not saying I'm doing this, but watch the ADP results in the next week. Manning and wide receiver Eric Decker, who caught those touchdowns, won't be cheap to acquire anymore.


• Kickers aren't discussed often in this space, for good reason, but if you have already drafted Billy Cundiff, look elsewhere. The Ravens punted their kicker Sunday. Rookie Justin Tucker gets the job, though … why am I discussing kickers?


• Detroit Lions running back Kevin Smith sprained his ankle Saturday. I blogged about Smith and his lack of early-September competition Friday, but man, he has to stay healthy. While this particular injury seems minor, Smith staying healthy for the long term seems unlikely. A healthy Mikel Leshoure was given five rushing attempts Saturday and finished with one yard. Good, if it foolishly drives down what little price he had. He is going to be a factor before September ends.

 

[HacheMan]

Is DeMarco Murray dependable?

By Christopher Harris | ESPN.com

How much should we trust DeMarco Murray as a starting RB for fantasy?

Let me paint you a picture. A second-year running back has started seven games. He has 164 career carries. He has scored two touchdowns in his NFL life. The man in question was injured throughout his collegiate career and had his rookie pro season ended by a broken leg. This kid we're talking about, he might be a nice sleeper this year, right?


Or he might be the No. 8 running back in fantasy.


DeMarco Murray is a fine symbol for everything that ails the RB position heading into 2012. He's the devil we don't know. And we love him for it. Whereas players such as Darren McFadden and Ryan Mathews have committed the sin of being injury-prone for multiple seasons, Murray has crushed his fantasy teams only once, so it's easier for us to assume that one year might've been an aberration. He's young. He's fast (Murray ran a 4.41 40 at the combine). He has tremendous receiving hands. And, a year after Felix Jones spit the bit as the Dallas Cowboys' starter, Murray appears to have a huge edge on backfield touches.


But should we trust him?


Let me answer that question by posing another question for you. You have been stranded on a desert island for three weeks, eating nothing but questionable-looking berries and drinking coconut milk, the supply of which is rapidly dwindling. A crate washes up on shore. This crate contains two items: a box of moldy Twinkies and a sack of horse manure. The moldy Twinkies are blue and smell like death. But at least they aren't horse manure.


DeMarco Murray is the moldy Twinkie in this analogy.

Listen, obviously, all kinds of things could go wrong with Murray. He's been a leg injury waiting to happen since early in his days at the University of Oklahoma. The Cowboys' offensive line looks as if it might struggle to begin the year. Tony Romo's aerial weapons can't stay healthy. Heck, take away that ludicrous 253-yard Week 6 effort against the St. Louis Rams last year, and Murray has just three carries for more than 20 yards (and exactly one TD) in his career. I can't recall a less experienced player ever making my RB top-10 list.


But he's there. He's there because the gentlemen around him have similar disaster potential. Mathews broke his collarbone on his first carry of the preseason. McFadden's ankles and feet appear to be constructed of papier-mâché. Jamaal Charles and Adrian Peterson are returning from torn ACLs. Steven Jackson and Frank Gore are likely deep into their respective back nines. And pretty much every other RB in the league is probably in some form of time share.


Do I trust Murray? I trust that, as long as he's healthy, he'll produce decent numbers. Including his breakout game against the Rams last year, he had five games of 20-plus carries in a six-week span, and he eclipsed 100 yards from scrimmage in each of those five contests. He averaged 5.5 yards per carry. He's actually something along the lines of a McFadden clone: an all-around player who runs fast for his size, catches passes amazingly well and packs a wallop when he meets tacklers. A healthy season could see him emerge as fantasy's No. 1 RB. I wouldn't be shocked.


But I also wouldn't be shocked to see him get hurt in Week 1, and I wouldn't be shocked to see the Cowboys' offense founder early in the year. I wouldn't be shocked if Jones produced a better season than we expect in a supporting role, draining Murray of some of his upside. Is Murray a good goal-line back? I expect he'd be fine, but the truth is: He has six career carries inside an opponent's 10, one of which has gone for a touchdown. We simply don't know yet.


This RB morass explains why there are so many dang quarterbacks in our top 20 this year, and it explains why Murray -- the No. 8 RB -- who in past years might've found himself ranked No. 11 or No. 12 overall, is No. 18 overall this season. Personally, I have five QBs, four WRs and a TE rated ahead of Murray.


So, do I trust him? About as far as I can throw him. But will I own him in leagues where he falls to me late in the second round?


You bet.

 

[HacheMan]

Expectations for Russell Wilson

Rookie was the right choice over Matt Flynn. How far can he take Seattle?

By Matt Williamson | ESPN.com

Pete Carroll is a coach who loves competition among his players. And throughout the 2012 NFL preseason, no team has had more competition among its quarterbacks than the Seattle Seahawks. With last year's starter, Tarvaris Jackson, on the way out to Buffalo, the Seahawks' starting QB this year was either going to be third-round draft pick Russell Wilson or free-agent signing Matt Flynn.


After the big contract given to Flynn this offseason, most presumed that the competition Carroll was holding was simply to light a fire under Flynn and force him to win the job. Flynn would be the starter this year and Wilson the future No. 1. After Wilson's performance against Kansas City on Friday night, though, he was named the Week 1 starter Sunday night.


But just how good can Wilson be in Year 1 for a team with playoff hopes? What are realistic expectations for Wilson and how far can he lead the Seahawks?

<offer></offer>

First of all, it's impressive that Wilson won the job in the first place. Even though he hasn't started a lot of games in the NFL, Flynn is a solid QB and the most reliable option Seattle has at the position. He looks like the type of smart, professional quarterback who won't make a lot of mistakes and won't lose games for Seattle, a team that has an elite defense and should have a strong power running game led by Marshawn Lynch. Even in limited views, I think the Seahawks know what they have in Flynn. But is that enough to get them to where they inevitably want to go?


Wilson is a rookie, and he does have shortcomings. Yes, he is very short for the position (though he finds throwing windows well) and obviously inexperienced at this level. Although he is refined, he will struggle reading defenses, recognizing blitz packages and adjusting to the overall speed of the game. But his potential trumps Flynn's reliability.


He is a passer first, but his athletic ability and the threat he poses to a defense with his legs simply can't be ignored. On third-and-long, if the play call breaks down, Wilson can scamper for a first down and extend the drive. Seattle can also call designed running plays for him. Athletic quarterbacks not only enhance a running game with their legs, but also can make a ton of room for running backs, as edge defenders will be much more hesitant to crash the inside run because the threat of Wilson keeping the ball and running off tackle.
Seattle's offensive line does concern me from a pass protection standpoint. But I expect the Seahawks to move Wilson with designed quarterback movement, something that will cut down on Wilson's reads and allow him a clearer sight line to his receivers. Defenses must honor Wilson's athletic skills, and those athletic skills will open up room and create better matchups for the Seattle's other offensive players.


While the plays Wilson can create with his legs are great -- and a very nice fallback as he transitions to the game at this level -- it's Wilson's passing that truly sets him apart from Flynn. And it will be those passing skills that define his career at the most important position on the field, as he learns to read NFL defenses and understand that he doesn't have to take over a game and try to make big plays on every snap. Wilson can really sling it. The ball explodes out of his hands and he can drive the ball downfield. That isn't true for Flynn. When playing against Wilson, the defense truly has to defend the entire field.


Wilson was given the opportunity to start the critical third preseason game, which often is the first time the respective teams game plan for one another. And Wilson sealed the starting job with a terrific performance. Against a good Chiefs defense, Wilson was decisive with his reads and stepped into his throws with authority. He threw well outside the numbers, showing off his excellent arm strength and the velocity he can create. Wilson wasn't ultra-conservative, either, and was unafraid to take shots downfield. Early in the second quarter on third-and-7, Wilson got immediate pressure from the Chiefs' edge pass-rushers. He was very quick to pull the ball down and take off up the middle, resulting in a 31-yard gain before going out of bounds untouched. That is a great example of his playmaking skill, but also what he brings to the table while he is learning to deal with blitz pressure without ever putting his body in harm's way. He finished the game with 58 rushing yards, and such production on the ground should be routine throughout the 2012 season.


Against Kansas City's first-team defense, Wilson produced points on six consecutive drives and Seattle's offense scored 30 points. He also orchestrated a fantastic two-minute drill that resulted in a touchdown to finish the first half. In his first three games in an NFL jersey -- albeit preseason -- Wilson has completed 67.3 percent of his passes and thrown five touchdowns, with just one interception. He posted similar outstanding numbers at Wisconsin last year.


For all the above reasons, Wilson is the correct choice to be the Seahawks' opening-day starter. In fact, I like the Seahawks to win the NFC West and for Carroll to win Coach of the Year, mostly based off this decision to go with Wilson as his starting quarterback.



Can the Seahawks be a true Super Bowl contender with Wilson behind center? That might be pushing it. With such a great defense, Seattle won't initially need to demand a ton from him in order to win games. Wilson rarely throws interceptions and protects the ball well. I expect the Seahawks to use a formula much like the one San Francisco used a year ago, and Wilson could quickly become the best quarterback in this division.

But all young quarterbacks will have their struggles, and the offense has some questions with the line and the overall cast of receivers. Look for Seattle to make the playoffs this season, and be much better set for the future because of this decision to start Wilson now.

 

[HacheMan]

Kiper's Keepers: Long-term picks

Nick Foles, Robert Turbin, T.Y. Hilton could pay dividends beyond 2012

By Mel Kiper Jr. | ESPN Insider

Joyner: Underrated QBs | RBs | WRs | Kiper: Rookie sleepers | Keepers

​

Many of you have already drafted fantasy teams for 2012, but if you're in keeper leagues or just keeping an eye out for sleepers you want to stash away for years to come, there's a lot of value to whom you'll see below.
I was asked to pick out rookies who won't be starting early in 2012 but could emerge later, or in years to come. You won't see a first-round pick on this list unless we're talking about guys drafted without a clear line to a starting spot.
Their spots here are no guarantee for future success, but if you're building toward the future, they could warrant a pickup.
Quarterbacks
Nick Foles, Philadelphia Eagles: Andy Reid has a knack for marketing his backup quarterbacks and, in several cases, flipping them. I wouldn't consider Donovan McNabb an obvious case, but if you include him, A.J. Feeley and Kevin Kolb, that's three times Reid has flipped his likely No. 2 quarterback headed into a season for a package built around a second-round pick. So is Foles next in line? I don't think so. Foles could be Michael Vick's heir in Philly. He has the smarts, anticipation and plenty of arm to operate the system favored by Reid and Marty Mornhinweg. Perhaps it'll be Vick headed elsewhere in a year or two if Foles progresses in a backup role.
<offer>Kirk Cousins, Washington Redskins: It won't be with the Redskins, but Cousins has the ceiling of a pretty good NFL starter. When Washington grabbed him, my first thought was that, given all the draft picks it dealt to get Robert Griffin III, it figured getting Cousins could allow the team to eventually flip him for more picks. He could be the next hot backup teams are angling for.
Ryan Lindley, Arizona Cardinals: There's a lot of development left for Lindley, but he has an NFL arm and can drill the ball into tight spots. He worked with three coordinators at San Diego State, and some early promise was largely unfulfilled. If he can improve his accuracy, he has the physical tools of a starter in this league. Given the quarterback situation in Arizona, I just hope he doesn't get rushed like some have recently.
Running backs
Isaiah Pead, St. Louis Rams: He's not much of a sleeper, because Pead could have fantasy value this season in deeper leagues. But he belongs here because he is clearly behind vet Steven Jackson on the depth chart. Pead is explosive through the hole and into the second level, and he could have a big impact early and be starting full time next season. Stash him now.
Robert Turbin, Seattle Seahawks: Like Pead, Turbin could see action soon. If Marshawn Lynch runs into disciplinary action from the league, it could be Turbin getting the bulk of carries. He can handle it. Turbin is strong, not the kind of guy you can arm tackle and underrated with his lateral movement. He can sidestep a defender and suddenly be up the field.
Cyrus Gray, Kansas City Chiefs: He could have gone higher than the sixth round but fell because of his injury history. Gray is smaller (200-210 pound range), but he has good explosiveness and can move well laterally. He can get in behind blockers and shows patience. No reason he can't get a shot.
Bryce Brown, Eagles: This is the quintessential sleeper who really shouldn't be one. Had Brown stayed on course in college, we'd be talking about a likely early-round pick now ready to get what's his. But the top recruit in 2008 at his position made a mess of the academic process and is now getting his shot after being drafted on a lark late. Without question, Brown has the physical upside of a very good starter in this league, and it wouldn't surprise me if he ran into stardom. Like I said, the physical ability was never the question.
Wide receivers
Ryan Broyles, Detroit Lions: Great route-runner, great hands and could be catching passes from Matthew Stafford for years. I'm not sure he can really be called a sleeper.
T.J. Graham, Buffalo Bills: The Bills need some speed options aside from C.J. Spiller, and Graham is just a bottled big play. If Chan Gailey can find ways to get him involved in the passing game, the Bills will see big plays as a result.

T.Y. Hilton, Indianapolis Colts: He has done well in the preseason and could get to run with the first string plenty this season. Hilton is explosive after the catch and has pretty dependable hands. He could become a favorite of Andrew Luck's.
Juron Criner, Oakland Raiders: The Raiders dealt Louis Murphy, and the emergence of Criner and fellow rookie Rod Streater made that possible. They give the Raiders underrated depth at the position. Criner could come into play early this season as a downfield threat. He has a big frame and snatches the ball away from his body.
Keshawn Martin, Houston Texans: He could start early as a slot wide receiver, and that doesn't surprise. Martin has the ability to create space between himself and a defender, making him an easy target. He could provide value as an underneath threat with run-after-the-catch ability in the Houston scheme.
Tight ends
Michael Egnew, Miami Dolphins: The Fins lack weapons, and while Egnew has been a disappointment in camp, he has upside and belongs as a sleeper. He has a great catch radius and can run like a receiver at more than 250 pounds. If he can figure it out, Miami can use him, and I expect him to figure it out soon.
Evan Rodriguez, Chicago Bears: With Mike Martz, the tight end position wasn't used much in Chicago, but Rodriguez could be useful in the new offense. He can be split out and used as a speed matchup against linebackers and a size matchup against corners. There's a lot of development needed, but he is in a good spot to succeed.
Taylor Thompson, Tennessee Titans: He has been dropping and fumbling everything in his first camp, but that's not entirely unexpected from a rookie relearning the position after playing defensive end in college. Athletically, he could be a difficult matchup if the Titans can get him coached up. Keep him on the shelf for next year.
</offer>

 

[HacheMan]

Rankings: Top 35 rookies for 2012

Eric Karabell


Whether it's for keeper leagues or single-season leagues, rookie rankings/thoughts tend to be in high demand, and not just the high-profile options. So here are my rookie rankings for fantasy, with no cornerbacks or linemen here. I'm also omitting the kickers. If I ranked the rookies simply by projected standard scoring, we'd probably find that new Baltimore Ravens kicker Justin Tucker, for example, might outscore every first-year wide receiver and all but two running backs. You know where to draft the kickers anyway, right? Right?!?




Here are my top rookies for 2012. This is in a vacuum, of course, because I can't possibly know your individual needs by team. Note that most of the players below are not immediately relevant in standard formats. In fact, even the ones who are worth looking at are likely overrated right now. Only one rookie running back (Knowshon Moreno) the past three seasons has finished that season in the top 20 at his position. The quarterbacks will make many mistakes; the wide receivers are unreliable. Here are my top rookies, noting I did not include those who missed their first year due to injury, such as Ryan Williams or Mikel Leshoure.
1. Trent Richardson, RB, Cleveland Browns: Injury is my primary concern, not the offense around him. He should be a reasonable RB2, at least most of the time.
2. Doug Martin, RB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers: You'll soon see how much better he is than LeGarrette Blount. But they'll still share touches in September.
3. Robert Griffin III, QB, Washington Redskins: Stop comparing him to Cam Newton. Still, he should run enough to be valuable. Long-term, I actually prefer the next fellow.
4. Andrew Luck, QB, Indianapolis Colts: I could see 4,000 passing yards and 22 scores (plus 18 picks) this year. After all, the Colts will be trailing a lot. My personal gap between Luck and Griffin is not large.
13. Coby Fleener, TE, Colts: One legit concern is that the team has another rookie tight end in Dwayne Allen it intends to use plenty as well. Fleener played with Luck in college, and should catch touchdown passes.
14. Robert Turbin, RB, Seahawks: I happen to like Marshawn Lynch more than most, but Turbin is next in line there if you want to handcuff.
15. Rueben Randle, WR, Giants: It's not like Mario Manningham, last year's No. 3 WR for the Giants, was all that productive.
16. Michael Floyd, WR, Arizona Cardinals: With this quarterback situation? Yikes!
17. Stephen Hill, WR, New York Jets: How about this QB situation? Double yikes!
18. Alfred Morris, RB, Redskins: If anyone else was his coach, would we even bother?
19. Lamar Miller, RB, Dolphins: If Reggie Bush and Daniel Thomas can't hack it, which is certainly possible, Miller is ready to step in.
20. Brian Quick, WR, Rams: Possesses size and speed, but I'm still iffy on Sam Bradford.
21. Mohamed Sanu, WR, Cincinnati Bengals: Looks to be getting a chance; underrated prospect.
22. LaMichael James, RB, San Francisco 49ers: Talented, but he's not next in line behind Frank Gore.
23. Ronnie Hillman, RB, Denver Broncos: Willis McGahee insurance, in theory, but will Peyton Manning just throw all the time?
24. Chris Rainey, RB, Pittsburgh Steelers: Going out on a minor limb here, but there could be opportunity.
25. Nick Foles, QB, Philadelphia Eagles: We know Michael Vick isn't playing all 16 games. If he plays only eight, Foles is next.
26 Rod Streater, WR, Oakland Raiders: Who? Hey, this Temple product is a sleeper with injuries to starters.
27. Chris Givens, WR, Rams: Big-time deep threat probably a year away from relevance. Could look like Torrey Smith soon.
28. LaVon Brazill, WR, Colts: Might be in right spot with injuries affecting others.
29. Keshawn Martin, WR, Houston Texans: Even if Andre Johnson goes down again, it's unlikely Martin shines.
30. Bernard Pierce, RB, Baltimore Ravens: Next in line after Ray Rice, and who knows, it could matter. Is anyone really safe?
31. Bryce Brown, RB, Eagles: Along those lines, if LeSean McCoy goes down, Brown could be better fit than smaller Dion Lewis.
32. Michael Egnew, TE, Dolphins: A potential name to know.
33. Cyrus Gray, RB, Kansas City Chiefs: Speedster not likely to matter unless Jamaal Charles and Peyton Hillis get hurt, and even then ...
34. Michael Smith, RB, Buccaneers: Let's see if he makes the team.
35. T.Y. Hilton, WR, Colts: More Luck depth.

 

[HacheMan]

Karabell's fantasy football top 200

By Eric Karabell | ESPN.com

<table><thead><tr><th>Rank </th><th> Player </th><th> Bye </th><th> Pos. Rank </th></tr><tbody><tr class="last"><td> 1 </td><td> Arian Foster, HOU </td><td> 8 </td><td> RB1 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 2 </td><td> Ray Rice, BAL </td><td> 8 </td><td> RB2 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 3 </td><td> LeSean McCoy, PHI </td><td> 7 </td><td> RB3 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 4 </td><td> Calvin Johnson, DET </td><td> 5 </td><td> WR1 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 5 </td><td> Chris Johnson, TEN </td><td> 11 </td><td> RB5 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 6 </td><td> Aaron Rodgers, GB </td><td> 10 </td><td> QB1 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 7 </td><td> Maurice Jones-Drew, JAC </td><td> 6 </td><td> RB4 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 8 </td><td> Larry Fitzgerald, ARI </td><td> 10 </td><td> WR2 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 9 </td><td> Tom Brady, NE </td><td> 9 </td><td> QB2 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 10 </td><td> Drew Brees, NO </td><td> 6 </td><td> QB3 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 11 </td><td> Marshawn Lynch, SEA </td><td> 11 </td><td> RB6 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 12 </td><td> Matt Forte, CHI </td><td> 6 </td><td> RB7 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 13 </td><td> Darren McFadden, OAK </td><td> 5 </td><td> RB8 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 14 </td><td> Matthew Stafford, DET </td><td> 5 </td><td> QB4 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 15 </td><td> Greg Jennings, GB </td><td> 10 </td><td> WR3 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 16 </td><td> Roddy White, ATL </td><td> 7 </td><td> WR4 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 17 </td><td> Andre Johnson, HOU </td><td> 8 </td><td> WR5 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 18 </td><td> Wes Welker, NE </td><td> 9 </td><td> WR6 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 19 </td><td> A.J. Green, CIN </td><td> 8 </td><td> WR7 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 20 </td><td> Julio Jones, ATL </td><td> 7 </td><td> WR8 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 21 </td><td> DeMarco Murray, DAL </td><td> 5 </td><td> RB9 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 22 </td><td> Mike Wallace, PIT </td><td> 4 </td><td> WR9 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 23 </td><td> Jamaal Charles, KC </td><td> 7 </td><td> RB10 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 24 </td><td> Michael Turner, ATL </td><td> 7 </td><td> RB11 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 25 </td><td> Rob Gronkowski, NE </td><td> 9 </td><td> TE1 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 26 </td><td> Jimmy Graham, NO </td><td> 6 </td><td> TE2 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 27 </td><td> Brandon Marshall, CHI </td><td> 6 </td><td> WR10 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 28 </td><td> Steven Jackson, STL </td><td> 9 </td><td> RB12 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 29 </td><td> Ryan Mathews, SD </td><td> 7 </td><td> RB13 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 30 </td><td> Cam Newton, CAR </td><td> 6 </td><td> QB5 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 31 </td><td> Adrian Peterson, MIN </td><td> 11 </td><td> RB14 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 32 </td><td> Darren Sproles, NO </td><td> 6 </td><td> RB15 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 33 </td><td> Hakeem Nicks, NYG </td><td> 11 </td><td> WR11 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 34 </td><td> Jordy Nelson, GB </td><td> 10 </td><td> WR12 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 35 </td><td> Victor Cruz, NYG </td><td> 11 </td><td> WR13 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 36 </td><td> Frank Gore, SF </td><td> 9 </td><td> RB16 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 37 </td><td> Marques Colston, NO </td><td> 6 </td><td> WR14 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 38 </td><td> Fred Jackson, BUF </td><td> 8 </td><td> RB17 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 39 </td><td> Ahmad Bradshaw, NYG </td><td> 11 </td><td> RB18 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 40 </td><td> Trent Richardson, CLE </td><td> 10 </td><td> RB19 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 41 </td><td> Peyton Hillis, KC </td><td> 7 </td><td> RB20 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 42 </td><td> Percy Harvin, MIN </td><td> 11 </td><td> WR15 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 43 </td><td> Steve Smith, CAR </td><td> 6 </td><td> WR16 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 44 </td><td> Reggie Bush, MIA </td><td> 7 </td><td> RB21 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 45 </td><td> Dwayne Bowe, KC </td><td> 7 </td><td> WR17 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 46 </td><td> Eli Manning, NYG </td><td> 11 </td><td> QB6 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 47 </td><td> Dez Bryant, DAL </td><td> 5 </td><td> WR18 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 48 </td><td> Steve Johnson, BUF </td><td> 8 </td><td> WR19 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 49 </td><td> Tony Romo, DAL </td><td> 5 </td><td> QB7 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 50 </td><td> Vincent Jackson, TB </td><td> 5 </td><td> WR20 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 51 </td><td> Philip Rivers, SD </td><td> 7 </td><td> QB8 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 52 </td><td> Peyton Manning, DEN </td><td> 7 </td><td> QB9 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 53 </td><td> Michael Vick, PHI </td><td> 7 </td><td> QB10 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 54 </td><td> Willis McGahee, DEN </td><td> 7 </td><td> RB22 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 55 </td><td> Miles Austin, DAL </td><td> 5 </td><td> WR21 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 56 </td><td> Jeremy Maclin, PHI </td><td> 7 </td><td> WR22 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 57 </td><td> BenJarvus Green-Ellis, CIN </td><td> 8 </td><td> RB23 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 58 </td><td> Antonio Brown, PIT </td><td> 4 </td><td> WR23 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 59 </td><td> Jonathan Stewart, CAR </td><td> 6 </td><td> RB24 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 60 </td><td> Doug Martin, TB </td><td> 5 </td><td> RB25 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 61 </td><td> Ben Tate, HOU </td><td> 8 </td><td> RB26 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 62 </td><td> DeAngelo Williams, CAR </td><td> 6 </td><td> RB27 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 63 </td><td> Antonio Gates, SD </td><td> 7 </td><td> TE3 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 64 </td><td> Matt Ryan, ATL </td><td> 7 </td><td> QB11 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 65 </td><td> Ben Roethlisberger, PIT </td><td> 4 </td><td> QB12 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 66 </td><td> Brandon Lloyd, NE </td><td> 9 </td><td> WR24 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 67 </td><td> DeSean Jackson, PHI </td><td> 7 </td><td> WR25 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 68 </td><td> Roy Helu, WAS </td><td> 10 </td><td> RB28 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 69 </td><td> Eric Decker, DEN </td><td> 7 </td><td> WR26 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 70 </td><td> Shonn Greene, NYJ </td><td> 9 </td><td> RB29 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 71 </td><td> Vernon Davis, SF </td><td> 9 </td><td> TE4 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 72 </td><td> Demaryius Thomas, DEN </td><td> 7 </td><td> WR27 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 73 </td><td> Stevan Ridley, NE </td><td> 9 </td><td> RB30 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 74 </td><td> Beanie Wells, ARI </td><td> 10 </td><td> RB31 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 75 </td><td> Torrey Smith, BAL </td><td> 8 </td><td> WR28 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 76 </td><td> Pierre Garcon, WAS </td><td> 10 </td><td> WR29 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 77 </td><td> Matt Schaub, HOU </td><td> 8 </td><td> QB13 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 78 </td><td> Aaron Hernandez, NE </td><td> 9 </td><td> TE6 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 79 </td><td> Donald Brown, IND </td><td> 4 </td><td> RB32 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 80 </td><td> Cedric Benson, GB </td><td> 10 </td><td> RB33 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 81 </td><td> Malcom Floyd, SD </td><td> 7 </td><td> WR30 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 82 </td><td> Robert Meachem, SD </td><td> 7 </td><td> WR31 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 83 </td><td> Kevin Smith, DET </td><td> 5 </td><td> RB34 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 84 </td><td> Santonio Holmes, NYJ </td><td> 9 </td><td> WR32 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 85 </td><td> Isaac Redman, PIT </td><td> 4 </td><td> RB35 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 86 </td><td> Jermichael Finley, GB </td><td> 10 </td><td> TE7 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 87 </td><td> Tony Gonzalez, ATL </td><td> 7 </td><td> TE8 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 88 </td><td> Lance Moore, NO </td><td> 6 </td><td> WR33 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 89 </td><td> Michael Crabtree, SF </td><td> 9 </td><td> WR34 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 90 </td><td> Fred Davis, WAS </td><td> 10 </td><td> TE8 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 91 </td><td> Toby Gerhart, MIN </td><td> 11 </td><td> RB36 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 92 </td><td> Michael Bush, CHI </td><td> 6 </td><td> RB37 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 93 </td><td> Jason Witten, DAL </td><td> 5 </td><td> TE9 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 94 </td><td> Mark Ingram, NO </td><td> 6 </td><td> RB38 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 95 </td><td> Titus Young, DET </td><td> 5 </td><td> WR35 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 96 </td><td> C.J. Spiller, BUF </td><td> 8 </td><td> RB39 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 97 </td><td> Kenny Britt, TEN </td><td> 11 </td><td> WR36 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 98 </td><td> Nate Washington, TEN </td><td> 11 </td><td> WR37 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 99 </td><td> Reggie Wayne, IND </td><td> 4 </td><td> WR38 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 100 </td><td> Brandon Pettigrew, DET </td><td> 5 </td><td> TE10 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 101 </td><td> David Wilson, NYG </td><td> 11 </td><td> RB40 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 102 </td><td> Felix Jones, DAL </td><td> 5 </td><td> RB41 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 103 </td><td> Anquan Boldin, BAL </td><td> 8 </td><td> WR39 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 104 </td><td> Denarius Moore, OAK </td><td> 5 </td><td> WR40 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 105 </td><td> Josh Freeman, TB </td><td> 5 </td><td> QB14 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 106 </td><td> Jay Cutler, CHI </td><td> 6 </td><td> QB15 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 107 </td><td> Darrius Heyward-Bey, OAK </td><td> 5 </td><td> WR41 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 108 </td><td> Jared Cook, TEN </td><td> 11 </td><td> TE11 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 109 </td><td> Mike Tolbert, CAR </td><td> 6 </td><td> RB42 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 110 </td><td> Pierre Thomas, NO </td><td> 6 </td><td> RB43 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 111 </td><td> LeGarrette Blount, TB </td><td> 5 </td><td> RB44 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 112 </td><td> Sidney Rice, SEA </td><td> 11 </td><td> WR42 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 113 </td><td> Robert Griffin III, WAS </td><td> 10 </td><td> QB16 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 114 </td><td> Ryan Williams, ARI </td><td> 10 </td><td> RB45 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 115 </td><td> Mike Williams, TB </td><td> 5 </td><td> WR43 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 116 </td><td> Laurent Robinson, JAC </td><td> 6 </td><td> WR44 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 117 </td><td> Mario Manningham, SF </td><td> 9 </td><td> WR45 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 118 </td><td> Jacob Tamme, DEN </td><td> 7 </td><td> TE12 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 119 </td><td> Tim Hightower, WAS </td><td> 10 </td><td> RB46 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 120 </td><td> Daniel Thomas, MIA </td><td> 7 </td><td> RB47 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 121 </td><td> Mike Goodson, OAK </td><td> 5 </td><td> RB48 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 122 </td><td> Rashard Mendenhall, PIT </td><td> 4 </td><td> RB49 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 123 </td><td> Isaiah Pead, STL </td><td> 9 </td><td> RB50 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 124 </td><td> Mikel Leshoure, DET </td><td> 5 </td><td> RB51 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 125 </td><td> 49ers D/ST </td><td> 9 </td><td> DST1 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 126 </td><td> Brandon LaFell, CAR </td><td> 6 </td><td> WR46 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 127 </td><td> Rueben Randle, NYG </td><td> 11 </td><td> WR47 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 128 </td><td> Justin Blackmon, JAC </td><td> 6 </td><td> WR48 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 129 </td><td> Michael Floyd, ARI </td><td> 10 </td><td> WR49 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 130 </td><td> Nate Burleson, DET </td><td> 5 </td><td> WR50 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 131 </td><td> Greg Little, CLE </td><td> 10 </td><td> WR51 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 132 </td><td> Leonard Hankerson, WAS </td><td> 10 </td><td> WR52 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 133 </td><td> Texans D/ST </td><td> 8 </td><td> DST2 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 134 </td><td> Ravens D/ST </td><td> 8 </td><td> DST3 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 135 </td><td> Bears D/ST </td><td> 6 </td><td> DST4 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 136 </td><td> Eagles D/ST </td><td> 7 </td><td> DST5 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 137 </td><td> Steelers D/ST </td><td> 4 </td><td> DST6 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 138 </td><td> Jets D/ST </td><td> 9 </td><td> DST7 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 139 </td><td> Seahawks D/ST </td><td> 11 </td><td> DST8 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 140 </td><td> Lions D/ST </td><td> 5 </td><td> DST9 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 141 </td><td> Falcons D/ST </td><td> 7 </td><td> DST10 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 142 </td><td> Andrew Luck, IND </td><td> 4 </td><td> QB17 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 143 </td><td> Joe Flacco, BAL </td><td> 8 </td><td> QB18 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 144 </td><td> Andy Dalton, CIN </td><td> 8 </td><td> QB19 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 145 </td><td> Alex Smith, SF </td><td> 9 </td><td> QB20 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 146 </td><td> Carson Palmer, OAK </td><td> 5 </td><td> QB21 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 147 </td><td> Russell Wilson, SEA </td><td> 11 </td><td> QB22 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 148 </td><td> Brent Celek, PHI </td><td> 7 </td><td> TE13 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 149 </td><td> James Jones, GB </td><td> 10 </td><td> WR53 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 150 </td><td> Danny Amendola, STL </td><td> 9 </td><td> WR54 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 151 </td><td> Stephen Gostkowski, NE </td><td> 9 </td><td> K1 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 152 </td><td> David Akers, SF </td><td> 9 </td><td> K2 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 153 </td><td> Mason Crosby, GB </td><td> 10 </td><td> K3 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 154 </td><td> Garrett Hartley, NO </td><td> 6 </td><td> K4 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 155 </td><td> Dan Bailey, DAL </td><td> 5 </td><td> K5 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 156 </td><td> Sebastian Janikowski, OAK </td><td> 5 </td><td> K6 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 157 </td><td> Matt Prater, DEN </td><td> 7 </td><td> K7 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 158 </td><td> Rob Bironas, TEN </td><td> 11 </td><td> K8 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 159 </td><td> Robbie Gould, CHI </td><td> 6 </td><td> K9 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 160 </td><td> Alex Henery, PHI </td><td> 7 </td><td> K10 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 161 </td><td> Kendall Hunter, SF </td><td> 9 </td><td> RB52 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 162 </td><td> Ronnie Hillman, DEN </td><td> 7 </td><td> RB53 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 163 </td><td> Owen Daniels, HOU </td><td> 8 </td><td> TE14 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 164 </td><td> Davone Bess, MIA </td><td> 7 </td><td> WR55 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 165 </td><td> Jacquizz Rodgers, ATL </td><td> 7 </td><td> RB54 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 166 </td><td> Jonathan Dwyer, PIT </td><td> 4 </td><td> RB55 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 167 </td><td> Bernard Scott, CIN </td><td> 8 </td><td> RB56 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 168 </td><td> Dustin Keller, NYJ </td><td> 9 </td><td> TE15 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 169 </td><td> Randall Cobb, GB </td><td> 10 </td><td> WR56 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 170 </td><td> Jacoby Ford, OAK </td><td> 5 </td><td> WR57 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 171 </td><td> Jonathan Baldwin, KC </td><td> 7 </td><td> WR58 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 172 </td><td> Kendall Wright, TEN </td><td> 11 </td><td> WR59 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 173 </td><td> James Starks, GB </td><td> 10 </td><td> RB57 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 174 </td><td> Shane Vereen, NE </td><td> 9 </td><td> RB58 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 175 </td><td> Kellen Winslow, SEA </td><td> 11 </td><td> TE16 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 176 </td><td> Rashad Jennings, JAC </td><td> 6 </td><td> RB59 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 177 </td><td> Eddie Royal, SD </td><td> 7 </td><td> WR60 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 178 </td><td> Kevin Ogletree, DAL </td><td> 5 </td><td> WR61 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 179 </td><td> Andre Caldwell, DEN </td><td> 7 </td><td> WR62 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 180 </td><td> Jermaine Gresham, CIN </td><td> 8 </td><td> TE17 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 181 </td><td> Evan Royster, WAS </td><td> 10 </td><td> RB60 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 182 </td><td> Jahvid Best, DET </td><td> 5 </td><td> RB61 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 183 </td><td> Delone Carter, IND </td><td> 4 </td><td> RB62 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 184 </td><td> Coby Fleener, IND </td><td> 4 </td><td> TE18 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 185 </td><td> Taiwan Jones, OAK </td><td> 5 </td><td> RB63 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 186 </td><td> Bernard Pierce, BAL </td><td> 8 </td><td> RB64 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 187 </td><td> Ronnie Brown, SD </td><td> 7 </td><td> RB65 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 188 </td><td> Brandon Jacobs, SF </td><td> 9 </td><td> RB66 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 189 </td><td> Braylon Edwards, SEA </td><td> 11 </td><td> WR63 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 190 </td><td> Brian Quick, STL </td><td> 9 </td><td> WR64 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 191 </td><td> Randy Moss, SF </td><td> 9 </td><td> WR65 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 192 </td><td> Le'Ron McClain, SD </td><td> 7 </td><td> RB67 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 193 </td><td> Lamar Miller, MIA </td><td> 7 </td><td> RB68 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 194 </td><td> Alshon Jeffery, CHI </td><td> 6 </td><td> WR66 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 195 </td><td> Austin Collie, IND </td><td> 4 </td><td> WR67 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 196 </td><td> Jason Snelling, ATL </td><td> 7 </td><td> RB69 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 197 </td><td> Alex Green, GB </td><td> 10 </td><td> RB70 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 198 </td><td> Robert Turbin, SEA </td><td> 11 </td><td> RB71 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 199 </td><td> LaMichael James, SF </td><td> 9 </td><td> RB72 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 200 </td><td> Tim Tebow, NYJ </td><td> 9 </td><td> QB23 </td></tr></tbody></table>Rankings based on 10-team ESPN standard league with 16-player rosters, starting one quarterback, two running backs, two wide receivers, one tight end, one flex (RB/WR/TE), a team defense and a kicker.

 

[HacheMan]

Abusing the Default Rankings
A lot of factors go into where a player is selected during an online fantasy draft. Health, buzz, last year’s stats, position scarcity and preseason performance all play a part. But nothing holds more weight than the pre-draft rankings provided by a site running the league, and that’s really unfortunate.

As I wrote last year, in a perfect world every fantasy draft would be live (yes, actual face-to-face interaction). It would force owners to come with their own lists instead of relying on these default rankings.

However, we don’t live in a perfect world. Some unprepared – or even prepared -- owners use these rankings as a crutch. That means they may be afraid to pull the trigger on X guy in the second round because they are listed a fifth-round guy in the draft room. Or maybe they take Y guy early just because his name is on top of those default rankings. And if there are auto drafters, being aware of who is on top of the list is crucial.

Regardless, we have given you tons of tools so you can simply ignore those rankings that pop up when you open your draft applet. In the Draft Guide, you’ll find complete rankings and projections for all different formats. Evan Silva has told who to shy away from. Chris Wesseling has released sleepers and busts. I’ve analyzed a snake draft, an auction draft and given out some late-round fliers to take a risk on. Mike Clay has talked handcuffs. We've also discussed camp winners, camp losers and much more.

Now, we’re preparing for the actual act of the draft. And, unfortunately, taking advantage of the default rankings are a part of that. Here is a look at what to keep an eye on as you draft on each of the major sites:

* These rankings were found within draft applets as of Monday, August 27.

ESPN.COM
Players listed higher overall than expected:
5. Maurice Jones-Drew
11. Andre Johnson
13. Matthew Stafford
14. Roddy White
19. Mike Wallace
27. Eli Manning
44. Willis McGahee
62. Roy Helu
67. Ben Tate
75. Michael Bush
86. Matt Schaub
Strategy: There’s a lot to chew on here. Even if you like Maurice Jones-Drew, Andre Johnson, Matthew Stafford, Mike Wallace or Eli Manning, you’re not going to get him. An unprepared owner or auto-drafter is going to scoop them up based on these ranks. Move on. … If you take Arian Foster, you’re going to have to reach for Ben Tate. Don’t let him get to the top of the “available players” in the applet. The same can be said for Matt Forte owners in search of the Michael Bush handcuff … Let someone else get fooled by Matt Schaub this high. He was featured in Chris Wesseling’s busts list.

Players listed lower overall than expected:
28. Darren McFadden
70. Doug Martin
87. Aaron Hernandez
96. Kenny Britt
105. Jason Witten
Strategy: Know your opponents. If they’re relying on the default ranks, we can wait an extra round or two on Doug Martin, Aaron Hernandez and Kenny Britt. I wouldn’t wait on Darren McFadden since so many other sites (including us) have him as a top-5 option. … ESPN did adjust their rankings to reflect the Jason Witten injury. Just be aware.

Where the buzz guys are ranked:
33. Julio Jones
47. Brandon Lloyd
54. Stevan Ridley
68. Eric Decker
73. Matt Ryan
78. Kevin Smith
80. Torrey Smith
95. David Wilson
101. Cedric Benson
113. Titus Young
Strategy: Pretty standard across the board here. We obviously have Julio Jones much higher, but that’s personal preference. … If you want Stevan Ridley, you’re going to have to pay through the nose. … We’re not getting any bargains on Matt Ryan, Kevin Smith, Titus Young or David Wilson either. Disappointing.

Who to scroll down for:
144. Greg Little
163. Ryan Williams
166. Brandon LaFell
170. Evan Royster
174. Kendall Wright
182. Kendall Hunter
192. Jacquizz Rodgers
194. Randall Cobb
198. Greg Olsen
199. Jake Locker
203. Rashad Jennings
207. Kyle Rudolph
232. Santana Moss
235. Austin Collie
276. Alfred Morris
Strategy: Lots of goodies in here. We can start plucking off our favorite fliers in Round 10 or so and gain a ton of high-upside bench players. … Make special note of Austin Collie’s ranking. It doesn’t reflect the latest news regarding his status. … Santana Moss is ranked as if he didn’t make the team.


YAHOO.COM
Players listed higher overall than expected:
7. Tom Brady
9. Drew Brees
15. A.J. Green
16. Matthew Stafford
21. Victor Cruz
66. Philip Rivers
85. Rashad Jennings
Strategy: Like all the sites, quarterbacks are ranked really high. It’s a question of raw stats vs. value-based drafting, something we’ve discussed plenty. Let someone else reach at QB. … A.J. Green and Victor Cruz are really nice players, but they’ll be hard to get with this kind of default rank. … Yahoo has adjusted to the Maurice Jones-Drew situation. Rashard Jennings isn’t going to be a steal.

Players listed lower overall than expected:
27. Andre Johnson
46. Michael Turner
47. Ahmad Bradshaw
53. Dez Bryant
57. Frank Gore
101. Kenny Britt
Strategy: Yahoo did a good job of downgrading the older running backs we’d avoid. It’s a shame because those big names would come off the board right away if they were higher in the default ranks. … Kenny Britt’s ADP and default rank hasn’t caught up to his situation. His knees are almost there and the suspension is going to be short.

Where the buzz guys are ranked:
20. Julio Jones
40. Doug Martin
41. Matt Ryan
42. Brandon Lloyd
51. Eric Decker
75. Kevin Smith
77. Torrey Smith
79. Stevan Ridley
95. Titus Young
102. David Wilson
116. Jake Locker
Strategy: Certainly no bargains on some of your favorite upside plays. Julio Jones is going to be a second-round pick and we’ll have to pay for Matt Ryan as well. … Doug Martin, Brandon Lloyd, Eric Decker and Kevin Smith have all been adjusted to reflect preseason developments. … Titus Young is officially no longer a flier and the same can be said for David Wilson.

Who to scroll down for:
132. Kendall Wright
140. Austin Collie
151. Kyle Rudolph
182. Brandon LaFell
217. Leonard Hankerson
Strategy: The best value here is Austin Collie, but I fear that he’ll be moved back up the ranks soon. … Your opponents aren’t likely to see Brandon LaFell and Leonard Hankerson buried on their lists. We can wait to pounce on them.


CBSSPORTS.COM
Players listed higher overall than expected:
12. Matthew Stafford
13. Trent Richardson
17. Fred Jackson
20. Ahmad Bradshaw
23. Michael Turner
33. BenJarvus Green-Ellis
39. Shonn Greene
42. Eli Manning
46. Donald Brown
52. Philip Rivers
57. Tony Romo
62. Isaac Redman
65. Ryan Williams
88. Cedric Benson
Strategy: CBS’ default ranks are weighted heavily toward running backs. We need to attack the position early, but be aware of how much value there could be at other spots if your entire league starts off RB-RB. … Hope and pray that your opponents get sucked in here and overpay for the likes of Ahmad Bradshaw, Michael Turner, BenJarvus Green-Ellis, Shonn Greene, Isaac Redman and Ryan Williams. … Think Cedric Benson is your sleeper? Think again. … Quarterbacks are going to fly off the board, but don’t get tricked into this Eli/Rivers/Romo tier. Wait a long while, then gain some value by getting the Ben Roethlisberger/Luck/RG3/Cutlers of the world.

Players listed lower overall than expected:
25. Rob Gronkowski
59. Antonio Gates
63. Brandon Lloyd
77. Antonio Brown
97. Mark Ingram
123. Ben Tate
147. David Wilson
Strategy: Considering the lack of elite players at tight end, it’s a little strange to see Rob Gronkowski and Antonio Gates so low. Pounce on them. … Brandon Lloyd and Antonio Brown are two of my favorite WR2s, but they are ranked as WR3s. … Looking to handcuff Ben Tate? Be aware that you might be able to wait a round or two later than usual. … David Wilson’s rank hasn’t been adjusted to reflect his impressive charge up the depth chart.

Where the buzz guys are ranked:
27. Julio Jones
28. Doug Martin
31. Matt Ryan
48. Stevan Ridley
56. Kevin Smith
67. Eric Decker
72. Torrey Smith
92. Titus Young
Strategy: No bargains here. If we want some of the preseason’s biggest movers, we are going to have to reach for them. Out of this entire group, only Eric Decker is ranked lower than I’d expect. Get aggressive.

Who to scroll down for:
136. Denarius Moore
139. Jake Locker
151. Sidney Rice
157. Kendall Wright
160. Brandon LaFell
161. Kenny Britt
164. Michael Crabtree
170. Kyle Rudolph
173. Jacquizz Rodgers
190. Alfred Morris
201. Leonard Hankerson
242. Kendall Hunter
278. Austin Collie
Strategy: There’s a lot to like here, but they are all clumped together. Once an owner sees Kenny Britt at an outrageous 161, he’s going to see Brandon LaFell, Michael Crabtree and Sidney Rice as well. … Kendall Hunter is worth a standalone selection, so Frank Gore owners should scroll down and get him in queue. … Sidney Rice is healthy for now and a No. 1 receiver. He’s at least worth a flier.

 

[HacheMan]

Silva's Post-Camp Top 150
The 2012 regular season is exactly one week away. This is my latest Top 150, modified for value in the way I see fit. Keep in mind these rankings are primarily for standard leagues -- 12-teamers without points-per-reception scoring. Adjust where necessary.

Editor's Note: For the premier all-purpose fantasy football preparation mechanism on the world wide web, bang this link.

First Round

1. Arian Foster (ADP: 1st overall) -- Foster brings to the table elite talent and versatility, but workload and scheme separate him from McCoy and Rice. Foster has made 30 starts over the past three years, in them averaging 24.9 touches a game. McCoy has a 19.5-touch average across 34 starts. Rice has averaged 22.3 touches per start over those three seasons. The Texans have the run-heaviest offense in football, and their zone-blocking system is a well-oiled machine.

2. LeSean McCoy (ADP: 4th overall) -- McCoy doesn't get the rock quite as often as Rice or McFadden, but he's more efficient with his touches and plays in an offense I think will explode in a post-hype year. McCoy's fantasy running back ranking has improved in each of his three NFL seasons, and he's still just 24 years old. He's the only player I'd briefly consider taking over Foster.

3. Darren McFadden (ADP: 7th overall) -- Though its annual occurrence gives the mirage of a trend, DMC's injury history is rooted in bad luck. In exchange for a shot at the league-winning reward, I'm willing to make McFadden a top-three pick as an insanely talented every-down back whose path to goal-line carries is clear for the first time in his career. McFadden is so good that he could miss two games and still outscore the running back field. He is an awesome player.

4. Ray Rice (ADP: 3rd overall) -- Rice doesn't have quite the juice Foster, McCoy, and McFadden offer as a sheer running talent. But he is a durable workhorse who quietly may be headed for a career high in snaps considering the failure of a No. 2 running back to emerge in Baltimore. Third-round pick Bernard Pierce can't separate himself from UDFA Bobby Rainey.

5. Marshawn Lynch (ADP: Early 2nd round) -- Lynch's position and volume lock him into upper-echelon fantasy value, and he impressed with improved quickness and burst in August after cutting offseason weight. Despite his July DUI, Lynch no longer appears in danger of league suspension. The installation of rookie quarterback Russell Wilson will make Lynch all the more dangerous. OL coach Tom Cable's zone-run scheme showed the ability to take over games last season, and a dual-threat quarterback will increase the efficacy of outside zone runs. Look for Lynch to record a career-high yards-per-carry average this season. Lynch's recent bout of back spasms does make it crucial for drafters to secure rookie handcuff Robert Turbin late.

6. Chris Johnson (ADP: 9th overall) -- I wrote a late-July column charting Johnson's 2011 snaps and detailing the collection of excuses offered for his career-worst year. I've watched his preseason and can say with certainty Johnson still possesses uncommon elusiveness and burst. I remain concerned that his heart may not stay in it as Tennessee's interior offensive line continues to allow constant penetration. He's still a monster talent slated for a monster workload, though, and can be every bit worth the risk in the middle of the first round.

7. Calvin Johnson (ADP: 6th overall) -- Megatron is the only receiver valuable enough to draft in the first round, and that's because he's head and shoulders above the rest. He's the most physically dominant wideout in the game playing in the league's pass-heaviest offense with the NFL's strongest-armed QB. For "last year's stats" guys: Johnson scored over three more fantasy points per week than the No. 2 receiver (Jordy Nelson). Megatron gives you a huge edge.

8. DeMarco Murray (ADP: 11th overall) -- Dallas' interior line is a concern, but Murray lacks any hint of competition for carries and can compensate with pure volume. Assuming he gets good luck and stays healthy, Murray is a darkhorse to lead the league in rushing attempts. The Cowboys' passing game will likely start slow with Jason Witten and Miles Austin nursing injuries. Murray can be the early-season offensive centerpiece, and his passing-game role is sure to rise.

9. Steven Jackson (ADP: Late 2nd round) -- I've found Jackson to be among the league's most impressive runners entering the final week of preseason. Having shed at least ten pounds, S-Jax has displayed improved quickness and speed while losing the "hop-step" behind the line of scrimmage he bad-habited even in his prime. Jeff Fisher is going to run the ball early and often in St. Louis. I think Jackson may well approach the 379 touches Fisher gave Eddie George in his own age-29 season. I have a first-round fantasy grade on S-Jax, but he can be had in the second.

10. Jamaal Charles (ADP: Mid 2nd round) -- The Texans tied the Broncos for the 2011 league lead in rushing attempts. Denver will be a pass-first offense as Peyton Manning replaces Tim Tebow, and Kansas City now may be Houston's most viable competitor for the NFL's run-heaviest team. Workload should not be a major issue for Charles, who has avoided training-camp setbacks following last September's ACL tear while rediscovering pre-injury explosion and moves. Through three exhibition games, J.C. is averaging 5.08 yards a carry and 6.06 yards per touch.

11. Jimmy Graham (ADP: 13th overall) -- The first-round quarterback argument applies much more smoothly to tight ends. For the last-year's-stats crowd, Gronk scored nearly six more points per week than the No. 3 tight end. Graham, who finished second, scored 2.5 more points per week than No. 3. These tight ends tilt weekly scoring in a particular owner's favor and are unto a tier of their own. I like Graham to outscore Gronkowski ever so slightly because he's the clear-cut No. 1 option in his offense and blocks less. They are both late first-round picks.

12. Rob Gronkowski (ADP: Mid 2nd round) -- Barring injury, Gronkowski and Graham's 2011 catch and yardage totals are reliable barometers as to their 2012 production. Aside from perhaps Gronk's TDs, I don't think there will be dramatic downturn from either of their final-year stats. I think Antonio Gates has an outside chance to approach Gronk and Graham's catches and yards, and Aaron Hernandez, Jermichael Finley, and perhaps Vernon Davis will at least keep you competitive. But Gronk and Graham are weekly matchup tilters and every bit worth top-12 picks.

Second Round

13. Ryan Mathews (ADP: Late 2nd round) -- Fantasy footballers have every right to be shaken by Mathews' fractured collarbone considering his past durability woes. But the facts of the matter are it was a hard-luck injury, and Mathews is expected to miss no more than two games. Mathews was a top-seven weekly running back scorer with Mike Tolbert in the 2011 picture and won't struggle for top-five per-week statistics with Tolbert gone to Carolina. Commonly available throughout the second round of drafts, Mathews is a value pick anywhere beyond the top 14.

14. Julio Jones (ADP: 15th overall) -- If any receiver can give Calvin Johnson a run for the 2012 fantasy scoring lead, Jones is the NFL's best bet as a freakish talent becoming the featured player in a pass-first, up-tempo offense. Julio is going to shred defenses this season. Through roughly six preseason quarters, Jones has 13 catches for 240 yards and a touchdown.

15. Fred Jackson (ADP: Late 2nd round) -- Jackson isn't a "sexy" pick as a 31-year-old running back who plays in Buffalo. But the preseason has shown he remains locked in as the featured runner ahead of C.J. Spiller. Chan Gailey's Pistol Spread offense floods the field with four and five receivers, creating running lanes. F-Jax should be secure as a top-12 fantasy back.

16. Matt Forte (ADP: 10th overall) -- The No. 10 fantasy pick seems rich for a back who never got goal-line carries in the first place, and now threatens to lose precious open-field touches to Michael Bush. The Bears may look to "preserve" Forte a bit after committing big money to him.

17. Doug Martin (ADP: Mid 3rd round) -- I've viewed each of Martin and LeGarrette Blount's August snaps, and there is no question that the rookie brings more to the table in every facet of the game. The Bucs know it, giving Martin six full possessions as the every-down back in their third preseason game, while Blount played a series. At worst, Martin will open the year as a 14-18 touch-per-week RB2 in Greg Schiano's run-first, smash-mouth offense. By October, Martin should be handling the ball 20-plus times a game. He is way better than Blount. RG Davin Joseph's year-ending knee injury is only a slight concern. While Joseph has a reputation as a mauler, Pro Football Focus graded him 68th out of 78 qualifying guards in run blocking last year.

18. Dez Bryant (ADP: Early 4th round) -- I think Julio has the best shot at unseating Calvin for the receiver fantasy scoring lead. I think Dez is the best bet to challenge for Johnson's receiving touchdown crown. Particularly with Jason Witten (spleen) and Miles Austin (hamstring) nursing worrisome injuries, Bryant is headed for a target-heavy breakout year. I recently bumped Bryant ahead of Andre Johnson and Fitzgerald as the No. 3 receiver behind Megatron and Jones.

19. Andre Johnson (ADP: Early 3rd round) -- This guy was a first-round pick last year. Johnson's 12 missed games over the past two seasons combined with an early-camp groin injury appear to have sunk his Average Draft Position, making him a value pick. He's lost nothing off his fastball, evidenced by three 90-plus yard efforts among his last four "real" games and preseason circus grabs in double coverage. Matt Schaub's surgical August instills even more confidence.

20. Larry Fitzgerald (ADP: Late 2nd round) -- Fitz drafters and keeper-league owners need John Skelton to win Arizona's quarterback job. The Cardinals' signal caller must accomplish two tasks: 1) Stand tall as his pocket inevitably collapses behind a sieve of an offensive line, and 2) Get the ball to Fitzgerald. When Skelton played more extensively in 2011 games, Fitz averaged 94 yards per contest. His per-game average fell to 82 yards with Kevin Kolb under center.

21. A.J. Green (ADP: Early 3rd round) -- Andy Dalton's rough preseason is cause for some pause, but Green is dynamic enough to be quarterback-proof. Green can "go get" poorly placed passes, and Dalton showed a willingness in August to throw it to him up for grabs. Green is a sneaky candidate to lead the league in targets. The Bengals really have no one else.

22. Antonio Gates (ADP: Mid 4th round) -- Fantasy owners should wait until the third round to even begin considering Gates in light of his mid fourth-round Average Draft Position, but I'm confident he'll meet expectations and then some. Philip Rivers has lost something off his deep ball, and Gates is still capable of dominating underneath. I expect him to lead San Diego in pass targets, receptions, receiving yards, and touchdowns, and to rank third among fantasy tight ends.

23. Hakeem Nicks (ADP: Early 4th round) -- Even after Victor Cruz's breakout year, Nicks is the Giants' best receiver. I think he's a value pick at his current ADP. His spring foot injury no longer an issue, Nicks has resumed practicing in 11-on-11s and will be 100 percent for Week 1.

24. Adrian Peterson (ADP: Mid 2nd round) -- Peterson's rehab has proceeded smoothly by all accounts, but I remain skeptical that he stands any chance of living up to his early to mid-round-two Average Draft Position coming off ACL and MCL tears with damage to the meniscuses. He's someone I'd let another owner draft. Peterson won't be a full-time back early in the season even if he's active for games, and the possibility of setbacks remains as he begins to face contact. I think he'll be a drain on your early-year starting lineup while sharing time with Toby Gerhart.
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Third Round

25. Cam Newton (ADP: Mid 2nd round) -- Forget, for a minute, last year's rushing TDs and whether they're "repeatable." Newton is the most physically dominant young player in football, and I think it's only a matter of time (this year or next) before he takes over as the overall fantasy scoring leader and consensus No. 1 pick. Perhaps I'm a year early, but I'll be betting on this player going forward. I like Cam as the No. 1 fantasy quarterback, passing Rodgers, Brady, and Brees.

26. Aaron Rodgers (ADP: 2nd overall) -- Rodgers is the best player in the NFL. I have a third-round fantasy grade on him because he plays a deep position in a passing league where each year numerous passers emerge from the middle- and late-round woodwork to score at "elite" rates. I think Newton, Rodgers, Brady, Brees, Vick, Stafford, and Ryan will provide first-tier 2012 production. I'd much rather grab Vick or Ryan while trying for this year's Stafford or Newton later in the draft than blow my early-round wad on a quarterback. It's basic Supply & Demand.

27. Tom Brady (ADP: 5th overall) -- I was asked recently which quarterback I think offers the highest upside at quarterback, which the highest "floor," and which the best combination of upside and floor. My answer to the latter two queries was Brady. I answered Newton to the first.

28. Drew Brees (ADP: 8th overall) -- Seven straight seasons of top-six quarterback stats lock in Brees as an elite producer even without Robert Meachem and Carl Nicks. The additional loss of Sean Payton is not a concern for Brees' fantasy outlook. OC Pete Carmichael returns, and the 2011 offense averaged 36 more yards and over seven more points per game with Carmichael calling plays. Carmichael did so from Week 7 on, after Payton blew out his knee on the sideline.

29. Michael Vick (ADP: Early 5th round) -- Vick's ADP has been torpedoed by a perfect storm of factors. One legion of owners simply does not believe in Vick. Never did. Another legion bought on Vick last season, and came away disappointed. A third legion has watched this year's preseason games. Vick got nicked up in each of the first two weeks, so he obviously can't stay healthy. Aggressive, forward-looking fantasy owners will pounce on Vick in the third or fourth round. He's a weekly difference maker, and he is the No. 1 value pick quarterback in 2012 drafts.

30. Matthew Stafford (ADP: 12th overall) -- I banged the table for Stafford as a value pick in 2011 drafts, and he rewarded "risk" takers with a top-five quarterback season at the cost of a seventh-round pick. Now a full year removed from injury, Stafford's ADP takes him off my radar. Fantasy drafts are a value game, and I'd rather target Vick or Matt Ryan several rounds later.

31. Percy Harvin (ADP: Mid 4th round) -- Chris Wesseling recently suggested that the Vikings' 2012 offense could be a sneaky goldmine for fantasy value. My offseason game reviews of Christian Ponder uncovered a better-than-advertised arm, and Harvin was an absolute machine after Ponder took the reins as a rookie, averaging well over 100 yards per game with seven TDs in the final seven weeks. Harvin is being drafted as a WR2, but he's the rare receiver who can score like a WR1 in both PPR and non-PPR formats. Ponder is willing to force feed him the football.

32. Brandon Lloyd (ADP: Late 4th round) -- The Patriots' offense will go deep more as Josh McDaniels replaces Bill O'Brien, and Lloyd will benefit from single coverage while defenses key up to stop Gronkowski, Hernandez, and Welker. Lloyd's Average Draft Position has risen with Rotoworld pumping him up, but he's still worth it in the mid to late fourth round. He'll be drafted as a WR2 and score like a WR1. I don't find Lloyd's quiet preseason (three targets, one catch) to be a concern because New England clearly has not taken these exhibition games seriously.

33. Steve Smith (ADP: Late 4th round) -- Defenses schemed to take away Smith down last season's stretch, but it didn't end well for opponents. Carolina won four of its final six games -- three by blowout -- while playing playoff teams Detroit and Atlanta tough. Teams will have to figure out different ways to defend this offense, which ranked seventh in the NFL in 2011 and looks like a top-five unit for 2012. Smith returns as the featured player in Rob Chudzinski's vertical scheme.

34. Jordy Nelson (ADP: Late 3rd round) -- As alluded to previously, only Calvin Johnson scored more fantasy points among receivers than Nelson in 2011. While Nelson's efficiency stats were seemingly flukily off the charts, I think he has legitimately developed into a top-ten NFL wide receiver and will continue to outscore teammate Greg Jennings. Rodgers shows impressive trust in Nelson by throwing him the ball in up-for-grabs situations. I think he's every bit worth his ADP.

35. Brandon Marshall (ADP: Late 2nd round) -- Hype was heavy on Marshall after a pair of long catches in Chicago's second preseason game, but there are a few things to remember. His value has always been superior in PPR compared to standard because he struggles in the red zone and doesn't go deep. I think Marshall is being a bit overrated in TD- and yard-heavy leagues.

36. Jeremy Maclin (ADP: Late 5th round) -- In another case of fantasy leaguers relying on last year's stats, Maclin is shaping up as one of the premier value picks at receiver. We're quick to forget he had the look of a future All Pro in 2010, before Maclin's 2011 performance was affected by mysterious offseason illness, leading to significant weight loss. Maclin is Vick's best red-zone target, and clearly a more complete wideout than DeSean Jackson. He has a boatload of upside.

Fourth Round

37. Aaron Hernandez (ADP: Early 5th round) -- Reports out of Foxboro that Hernandez may emerge as Tom Brady's No. 1 pass option are promising, and there are few tight ends with higher "floors." When you get past Graham, Gronk, and Gates in your draft, Hernandez at the very least keeps you competitive week to week with a high volume of touches and plenty of playmaking ability in a high-scoring offense. If the beat writers' suggestions are correct, Hernandez will do much more than that. Jermichael Finley and Vernon Davis are next in line. Finley's on-field play can be maddeningly inconsistent, and San Francisco's run-first philosophy holds Davis back.

38. Antonio Brown (ADP: Mid 4th round) -- The game tape shows Brown to be not as dynamic as Mike Wallace, and certainly not of similar ilk in the minds of opposing defensive coordinators. But we are projecting stats here, not debating the on-field impact of double and triple teams. The end of Wallace's holdout is good news for Brown's fantasy outlook. Wallace will continue to command heavy coverage while Brown guts secondaries inside the numbers. I really like Brown as a WR2 in what may be a more pass-happy Pittsburgh offense than people expect. Brown has showed off his own impressive talent with 11 preseason receptions for 204 yards and three touchdowns, averaging 18.5 yards per catch.

39. Roddy White (ADP: Mid 3rd round) -- The fantasy owners still drafting White in the second and third rounds haven't paid enough attention. While White should continue to see a healthy dose of targets in Atlanta's pass-heavy offense, even Roddy himself admits Julio Jones will be the featured player in Dirk Koetter's attack. Jones is a WR1. White is a middling WR2 who doesn't provide enough value to support his lofty late-August ADP.

40. Marques Colston (ADP: Late 4th round) -- Colston missed two games last year and still ranked 11th among fantasy receivers. He was eighth in wideout scoring per game. Those are legitimate WR1 numbers. Though Jimmy Graham has overtaken him as the Saints' top receiver, New Orleans' pass-happy attack allows plenty of volume for two upper-echelon fantasy producers. Be it with PPR or non-PPR settings, I think you're in great shape if you secure Colston as a WR2.

41. Victor Cruz (ADP: Late 3rd round) -- If Cruz has any edge on teammate Nicks, it is superior versatility. Cruz can play X, Z, and slot receiver, running a diverse and full route tree in OC Kevin Gilbride's vertical offense. Nicks primarily sticks to the sideline, securing just about everything thrown his way with body control and massive mitts. I think Nicks will score more like the WR1 this year, but Cruz won't be too far off. He's another terrific WR2 regardless of format.

42. Greg Jennings (ADP: Mid 3rd round) -- A precision route runner who moves around the formation more than you might think, Jennings was a top-ten receiver before succumbing to a regular season-ending knee injury after 13 games in 2011. In these rankings, I gave Jordy Nelson the slight edge on Jennings in 2012 projected scoring. But I really think it could go either way.

43. Matt Ryan (ADP: Early 4th round) -- Ryan's ADP has risen on the heels of a monster August, although he still offers value in the fourth round as other quarterbacks primed to score at elite rates irresponsibly fly off the board in the top-24 picks. The Falcons are truly committed to an up-tempo, high-octane passing attack this season, and they have weapons to pull it off with Jones and White outside. Tony Gonzalez remains an effective possession and red-zone target.

44. Eric Decker (ADP: Mid 5th round) -- Chris Wesseling has banged the table for Decker over Demaryius Thomas since long before camp, and I'm jumping on board after viewing each of the Broncos' three preseason games. Thomas is still learning to run pass patterns, while Decker already knows how and is getting open at will. I think he can be a target monster this year.

45. Demaryius Thomas (ADP: Late 5th round) -- I still love Thomas, though. An incredibly tightly wound receiver at 6-foot-3 and over 230 pounds, Thomas refuses to go down on first contact and his rapport with Peyton Manning should grow by the week. Based on physical tools and skill set, it's certainly fair to argue that Thomas offers superior upside to Decker. I think Demaryius' baseline is back-end WR2 stats. He looks to me like a "safe" fifth-round fantasy pick.

46. Darren Sproles (ADP: Mid 3rd round) -- It's still difficult to grasp relying on a standard-league back as an every-week starter when he's not even a lock for 100-plus carries. A very new-wave player, Sproles qualifies because he catches so many passes and is second in line for red-zone work in New Orleans' backfield, essentially rotating there with Mark Ingram. Receptions gain more yards than rushing attempts, anyway, and Sproles has a "floor" of around 6-7 touchdowns.

47. Dwayne Bowe (ADP: Late 5th round) -- Whereas Maurice Jones-Drew and Mike Wallace's lengthier holdouts cost them significant study time in new offenses, Bowe reported to the Chiefs in a timely enough manner to play snaps in a preseason game and get 23 days in OC Brian Daboll's system before the opener. An improved Kansas City running game will free him up more, and Bowe has been a top-20 fantasy wideout in each of his last three healthy seasons.

48. Wes Welker (ADP: Late 3rd round) -- Welker remains an elite PPR receiver capable of catching 100 balls, but don't expect a stat line like last year's with Hernandez earning a bigger role and Lloyd commanding targets on the perimeter. Outgoing OC Bill O'Brien's horizontal passing game played to the strengths of Welker. Josh McDaniels will throw downfield more. Look for plenty of receptions out of the slot receiver, but considerable drops in touchdowns and yards.

Fifth Round

49. Maurice Jones-Drew (ADP: Mid 2nd round) -- Jones-Drew is still being drafted as if he's going to play 16 games as a feature back. The history of holdout running backs suggests there's little chance of Jones-Drew living up to a second-round fantasy stab, and Rashad Jennings' impressive preseason bodes especially poorly for MJD's odds of seeing a workload remotely resembling last year's. There is a ton of risk in drafting Jones-Drew, and I don't think the possible reward is worth it. ESPN's Adam Schefter went so far Tuesday morning as to suggest Jones-Drew's holdout will last into the regular season, at least costing him Week 1. While his ADP has dipped a bit recently, I wouldn't even consider taking Jones-Drew before round five.

50. Trent Richardson (ADP: Early 3rd round) -- Throw out for a moment the fact that Richardson's knee problems are recurring. His absence from most of training camp and the entire preseason almost certainly removes Richardson from passing-down consideration, and there are no guarantees on his early-season, early-down workload, either. I love Richardson's ability and think his offensive line is capable of plowing holes, but I don't think he's going to get the ball more than 16 times a game. He's an early fifth-round fantasy pick to me. A dicey, limited RB2.

51. Ahmad Bradshaw (ADP: Early 4th round) -- David Wilson's preseason buzz has been hot and heavy, and it's deserved with 170 total yards on 24 touches. While I believe Bradshaw is obviously overvalued at his average draft slot, I still think he's the back to own in New York and would feel okay about him as my RB2. Wilson needs a Bradshaw injury just to touch flex value.

52. Stevan Ridley (ADP: Mid 6th round) -- I must not have been the only one watching the Patriots' third preseason game Saturday night against the Bucs. Ridley's ADP has since leaped from the mid-seventh round into the mid sixth. Ridley dominated first-team work with the Tom Brady group, piling up 16 carries for 87 yards (5.4 YPC) and multiple red-zone chances, including a goal-line score. He also caught three passes. Meanwhile, Shane Vereen exited with a foot injury. Ridley's week-to-week consistency may sting some during the season as the Patriots adapt their rushing attack to account for opponents based on game plans, but I think Ridley is going to score a lot of touchdowns and be much more effective than BenJarvus Green-Ellis in the same early-down plowhorse role. Ridley's violent, decisive running style is very easy to like.

53. Mike Wallace (ADP: Early 5th round) -- I love Wallace's talent. I think he is better than Antonio Brown. But after missing Todd Haley's offensive install by holding out of OTAs and the first month of camp, Wallace left himself 11 days to learn Haley's system on the fly. And how long will it take for the Steelers to implement playcalls on which Wallace is Big Ben's first read? My concern is Wallace will open the year as a clear-out receiver, running deep to take coverage while Brown racks up stats underneath. I'm worried Wallace will be very inconsistent. I hope I'm wrong.

54. Vincent Jackson (ADP: Early 6th round) -- The emergence of a productive running game in Tampa will be crucial to Jackson's fantasy value because the Buccaneers have no other offensive weapons who command coverage. He's not in San Diego with Gates anymore. I am optimistic Martin will spark the rushing attack, though, and was impressed by V-Jax's preseason rapport with Josh Freeman. Jackson was clearly Freeman's go-to guy in the third exhibition week.

55. Kevin Smith (ADP: Late 6th round) -- Smith's preseason ankle injury is a reminder that durability is an ongoing concern. But he is a terrific fit for the Lions' passing-based offense and will play heavy doses of snaps so long as he's healthy. I'd take Smith in the late fifth or sixth round and feel good about him as my RB2. I'm really not worried about Mikel Leshoure.

56. Willis McGahee (ADP: Late 4th round) -- I did offseason game reviews on Demaryius Thomas and the Denver offense, and McGahee's burst and acceleration jumped out to me on tape. His 2011 production was not simply the product of read-option plays. McGahee is still an effective runner, and it's continued to show up in preseason games. His ADP is just a bit too rich.

57. Torrey Smith (ADP: Mid 6th round) -- Credit Pat Daugherty (@RotoPat) for being first to the dance on Smith. The Ravens have designs on implementing a no-huddle offense that will increase passing volume and sheer offensive snaps, and Smith made tremendous strides as a route runner in his first full NFL offseason. His eight catches for 103 yards in two quarters during Baltimore's third preseason game are a sign of things to come. Smith is poised for a big leap.

58. Frank Gore (ADP: Mid 4th round) -- I'd rather take Kendall Hunter in the 12th round. Gore's passing-game role has evaporated in Jim Harbaugh's offense (17 catches in '11), and he's slated to lose goal-line work to Brandon Jacobs while Hunter and LaMichael James steal open-field snaps. I think Gore has a shot at RB2 value for the season's first month and a half, but expect his field time to dwindle down the stretch with Hunter eventually taking over as lead back.

59. Stevie Johnson (ADP: Mid 6th round) -- Johnson is the featured receiver in a passing-friendly offense that floods the field with wideouts. Chan Gailey's Pistol Spread makes the No. 1 guy awfully difficult to double team. Johnson also might be the premier route runner in football. I like Johnson as more of an elite WR3 than WR2, though. He's not a huge yardage or TD guy.

60. Reggie Wayne (ADP: Late 6th round) -- I like Wayne as a PPR-league WR2 if Austin Collie doesn't receive medical clearance. If Collie does, I'm downgrading Wayne by quite a bit.
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Sixth Round

61. Jermichael Finley (ADP: Early 6th round) -- Finley's god-given talent and high-octane offense combine to give him plenty of on-paper fantasy appeal, but it would have been nice to see him light up some preseason games for confidence's sake after a miserable 2011 season. I'd much rather have Graham, Gronk, Hernandez, or Gates. As much as there's a big drop after the first two tight ends, it gets even bigger after the top four. You need to get a good one this year.

62. Vernon Davis (ADP: Mid 6th round) -- Davis is a better player than Finley and could be grouped with the four "elite" tight ends if he played in a more fantasy-friendly passing offense.

63. Reggie Bush (ADP: Early 5th round) -- Bush's Average Draft Position is much too rich for my taste. I don't think he'll come close to last year's workload in Joe Philbin's committee-based running offense. Rookie Lamar Miller intrigues me more and will cost you far less on draft day.

64. Peyton Hillis (ADP: Early 6th round) -- Charles is too good and running too well for the Chiefs to give Hillis more touches, but the more powerful half of Kansas City's Thunder and Lightning backfield is an intriguing flex option. The Chiefs will run a ton, and Hillis will score TDs.

65. DeSean Jackson (ADP: Mid 5th round) -- Jackson will give you weekly big-play potential, but I don't think his consistency will improve much. He's a WR3 in a field full of them.

66. Michael Turner (ADP: Late 3rd round) -- Maybe I'm crazy, but I think Turner is a "sleeper" to be listed among Friday's final Falcons cuts. He was completely ineffective in three preseason games (18 carries, 49 yards, 2.7 YPC) and is fast losing value to a team that will no longer lean on its run game. Turner is also owed a non-guaranteed $5 million base salary.

67. Kenny Britt (ADP: Late 7th round) -- I'm really liking this ADP on Britt. While he is certain to miss time, Britt will be an every-week starter once the Titans remove his early-season training wheels. And Jake Locker helps Britt because he can throw the football down the field.

68. Ryan Williams (ADP: Late 7th round) -- I like Williams to lead Arizona's backfield in touches. He's better in the passing game than Beanie Wells, and his knee has been healthier for a longer period of time. The fact that Williams avoided setbacks after a patellar tendon rupture is promising. I was also impressed watching him in preseason games. Williams has showed cutting ability and some acceleration, averaging 5.0 yards per carry with a goal-line score in August. The Cards may have to lean on their running game this year due to the NFL's worst pass protection.

69. Miles Austin (ADP: Late 6th round) -- Austin's ADP is reasonable because he can score like a borderline WR1 when healthy. I just don't know whether he's going to be 100 percent this year after missing nearly a month of training camp with recurring hamstring problems.

70. Jonathan Stewart (ADP: Early 8th round) -- Stewart dodged a bullet after going down with an ankle "tweak" in Carolina's third preseason game. I'm not concerned with his durability, but the Panthers' backfield was muddled last year and has become even more so with the addition of Mike Tolbert. I do not consider Stewart an RB2, and wouldn't feel great about him as my flex, either. Of course, he'd be a top-10 weekly running back play if DeAngelo Williams went down.

71. Mark Ingram (ADP: Mid 8th round) -- Ingram interests me as a standard-league RB2/flex because he's looked awfully good in preseason action while retaining a stranglehold on red-zone carries in New Orleans' high-scoring offense. Ingram disappointed a ton of owners last season, keeping the Average Draft Position very low on a legitimate threat for 10-12 rushing TDs.

72. Pierre Garcon (ADP: Early 7th round) -- If preseason and the history of Shanahan offenses are any indication, "X" receiver Garcon will be RG3's first read on virtually every passing play in 2012. Garcon is error prone, but he's also a sleeper to finish top-ten in targets. Considering cost and projected consistency, I'd rather have Garcon as my WR3 than DeSean Jackson.

Seventh Round

73. Ben Tate (ADP: Mid 7th round) -- I love Tate because he's a viable flex play against soft run defenses and a locked-and-loaded RB1 if Arian Foster goes down. I'd start thinking about drafting Tate in the sixth round. He brings much more to the table than your typical "handcuff."

74. Rashad Jennings (ADP: Early 8th round) -- Jennings is locked in as Jacksonville's Week 1 starter, although he'll face Minnesota's annually tough run defense and gets the Texans the following week. Jones-Drew figures to end his holdout by then. I've always held Jennings in high regard as a three-down-capable back, but he may need an MJD injury to be more than a flex play.

75. Donald Brown (ADP: Late 5th round) -- Brown is one of the most overdrafted players in 2012 fantasy leagues. He's much more change-of-pace than feature back, and figures to open the season rotating snaps with Vick Ballard and passing-down specialist Mewelde Moore. Avoid.

76. Greg Little (ADP: Mid 10th round)

77. Tony Romo (ADP: Late 6th round) -- Romo's Average Draft Position was screaming toward the fourth round early in training camp, but it's understandably cooled off with so many injuries around him. Jason Witten (spleen) is likely to miss Week 1 and may not be healthy early in the season. Miles Austin's hamstring problems are recurring. The interior of Dallas' offensive line looks worse than last year's, if that's possible. Despite last Saturday night's preseason destruction of the Rams, I wouldn't want Romo as my fantasy starter.

78. Eli Manning (ADP: Mid 5th round)

79. Philip Rivers (ADP: Early 7th round) -- I don't feel good about Rivers at all. His 2011 game tape showed possible signs of decline, and LT Jared Gaither is now tentatively expected to miss regular season action due to ongoing back problems. Rivers is the toughest pocket quarterback in football, but the Chargers' vertical scheme could hit the skids without viable pass protection. Aside from Antonio Gates, it's hard to be upbeat about this passing attack right now.

80. Denarius Moore (ADP: Mid 9th round)

81. Titus Young (ADP: Mid 7th round)

82. Toby Gerhart (ADP: Late 9th round) -- Gerhart isn't an elite talent at running back, but he churns his legs through contact, soaks up blocked yards, and has developed into a strong passing-game contributor. While everyone seems to expect the old Adrian Peterson to return, Gerhart is also an every-down back in waiting behind a starter coming off a devastating knee injury. Gerhart's Average Draft Position ought to be a lot higher than it is right now.

83. Shonn Greene (ADP: Mid 6th round) -- I mentioned the effect of a passing league on fantasy statistics in my last column's introduction. It has deepened the receiver and quarterback fields. At the same time, the passing league has allowed pass-catching running backs to lap early-down plodders, particularly those who don't play in high-scoring offenses. Shonn Greene is precisely the kind of running back to avoid in 2012 fantasy drafts. He doesn't catch passes, plays in a brutal offense, and lacks big-play ability to compensate. You're in trouble if he's your RB2.

84. Peyton Manning (ADP: Early 6th round)

Eighth Round

85. C.J. Spiller (ADP: Mid 8th round) -- I've seen Spiller ranked quite a bit higher than this, and I don't get it. He'll need another F-Jax injury to emerge as more than a weak flex option.

86. Fred Davis (ADP: Early 9th round) -- I usually recommend caution about slow preseason stats for established fantasy commodities, but Davis has been an afterthought in the Washington offense through three preseason games, catching his two targets for 16 yards. I think Pierre Garcon has a chance to be a top-ten receiver in targets, and Kyle Shanahan may run more than he has in years past. Davis can still be a back-end TE1, but I want a difference maker at tight end this season and am willing to invest a high pick.

87. Kyle Rudolph (ADP: Early 13th round) -- Rudolph's ADP is still in the flier-pick range, but he shouldn't be considered a flier anymore. If there is a late-round tight end capable of leaping into the Hernandez/Finley/Davis tier, it's the one in Minnesota. Rudolph should be Ponder's No. 1 red-zone target and No. 2 in the open field, behind Harvin. He's got a leg up on the Jared Cooks of the world as an established, every-down tight end. Rudolph isn't just a passing-down specialist.

88. Darrius Heyward-Bey (ADP: Late 8th round)

89. DeAngelo Williams (ADP: Mid 8th round)

90. Michael Bush (ADP: Mid 8th round)

91. BenJarvus Green-Ellis (ADP: Mid 4th round) -- The Bengals' 2011 offense preyed on weak early-season defenses before circling the drain against their tough AFC North foes. I think Cincinnati will struggle this year more than most people anticipate, to the extent that they'll often be playing from behind. That would mean more field time for Bernard Scott and third-down back Brian Leonard, and less for the one-dimensional Law Firm. Already short on running talent and completely devoid of big-play ability, Green-Ellis is an obvious "avoid" in 2012 fantasy drafts.

92. Ben Roethlisberger (ADP: Mid 9th round)

93. David Wilson (ADP: Early 8th round) -- Wilson has dynamic running ability and it's shown up all preseason, but his Average Draft Position has taken him out of the mix for me. Barring injury to Ahmad Bradshaw, Wilson's upside is changeup back who doesn't play in the passing game. If Bradshaw gets hurt, Wilson would be no more than lead runner in a committee with D.J. Ware. I loved Wilson when I could get him as an RB4/5. I don't want him as my RB3.

94. Beanie Wells (ADP: Early 7th round)

95. Justin Blackmon (ADP: Early 7th round) -- His ADP has skyrocketed. Blackmon is a physical run-after-catch receiver with some Boldinian traits, but I'm hardly sold on Blaine Gabbert and there are many wideouts going later I'd prefer. Kenny Britt, Titus Young, and Denarius Moore have lower ADPs. Each of them is a better bet than Blackmon for sustained WR3 scoring.

96. Andrew Luck (ADP: Early 10th round)

Ninth Round

97. Cedric Benson (ADP: Mid 5th round) -- Benson will open the season as the favorite for carries in Green Bay, but pedestrian talent and questionable scheme fit are working against him. Benson can't pass block or catch, and Packers backs must be able to play in the passing game in order to earn regular playing time. Benson may offer early-season RB2/flex value, but he'll be a liability in PPR leagues while gradually ceding snaps to Alex Green. It's worth noting that in a matter of a week, Benson's ADP has skyrocketed from round seven to five. No thanks.

98. Alfred Morris (ADP: Late 13th round) -- The guy getting carries in D.C. is going to produce, and that's Morris at the moment. He has no burst, though, and lacks talent to be a consistent scorer, let alone keep the job. Morris may prove a flash in the pan, but I still think he's worth a ninth- or tenth-round stab. He'll be a weekly 100-yard threat as long as he's getting the rock.

99. Austin Collie (ADP: Late 12th round) -- Collie's latest concussion understandably sent his ADP back into the gutter just as he was beginning to look like the best receiver value going in drafts. There are no guarantees for a player concussed four times in a 21-month span, but I still like Collie's upside at the price of a WR5. I think he can lead Indy in catches and yards if he gains medical clearance. The Colts have stated publicly that they expect Collie to be ready for Week 1.

100. Sidney Rice (ADP: Early 11th round) -- Rice's improving health means he's back in line to start on Opening Day, and Terrell Owens' release all but confirms it. Braylon Edwards and Golden Tate are competing at split end. Rice was vying with Owens at flanker, and Doug Baldwin is the slot guy. Durability remains a concern, but Rice is an every-week WR3 whenever healthy.

101. Jason Witten (ADP: Early 8th round)

102. Jay Cutler (ADP: Early 8th round)

103. Roy Helu (ADP: Early 10th round) -- Helu's bum Achilles' tendons have sent his fantasy stock spiraling, but I've paid attention to this backfield enough to know unequivocally that Helu is the best runner the Redskins have, in every single area. I'd love him as an RB4/5.

104. Jake Locker (ADP: Early 13th round) -- Locker's accuracy issues aren't going away, but he throws the football with tremendous velocity and can keep the chains moving with his legs. He's got a high ceiling for a last-ditch QB2 pick. The Titans' 2012 offense has exciting potential.

105. Robert Meachem (ADP: Mid 8th round)

106. Michael Crabtree (ADP: Mid 11th round)

107. Jacquizz Rodgers (ADP: Early 9th round)

108. Kendall Wright (ADP: Early 10th round)
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Tenth Round

109. Evan Royster (ADP: Late 11th round)

110. Robert Griffin III (ADP: Early 9th round)

111. Brandon LaFell (ADP: Late 10th round) -- LaFell and Legedu Naanee rotated as Carolina's No. 2 receiver in 2011, combining for a final stat line of 80/1,080/4. LaFell now has the job all to himself. While LaFell is unlikely to repeat those statistics on his own, he does offer intriguing breakout appeal in the Panthers' aggressive, vertical offense. He's an ideal WR4 pick.

112. Kendall Hunter (ADP: Late 11th round) -- Hunter has three-down tools and is second in line for work behind a fading starter in a run-first offense. If Gore goes down, Hunter is a fantasy starter, and I think he has a chance to emerge as one by midyear even without the assistance of an injury.

113. Joe Flacco (ADP: Late 10th round) -- Flacco is capable of a breakout season if arch-conservative playcaller Cam Cameron continues his use of the no-huddle offense when the real games start. In Atlanta last year, we saw coach Mike Smith put brakes on the Falcons' intent to use the no-huddle after a prolific preseason. Smith has relented this year, but will Cameron?

114. Malcom Floyd (ADP: Mid 8th round)

115. Jacob Tamme (ADP: Late 8th round)

116. Nate Washington (ADP: Early 9th round)

117. Greg Olsen (ADP: Mid 11th round)

118. Randall Cobb (ADP: Early 11th round)

119. Tony Gonzalez (ADP: Mid 9th round)

120. Anquan Boldin (ADP: Late 8th round)

Eleventh Round

121. Russell Wilson (ADP: Late 12th round -- I caught Wilson's start against Kansas City on review Sunday and have now watched all his August snaps. He plays with controlled urgency, doing everything on the football field fast and keeping defenses off balance with devastating play fakes on top of dangerous athleticism. Wilson is an accurate thrower, largely unbothered by pressure. I believe he'll be a quality rookie starter who's even better in fantasy than real life.

122. Robert Turbin (ADP: Mid 13th round) -- A steady rise. While Turbin's Utah State tape wasn't overly impressive, he's proven a sound fit for OL coach Tom Cable's zone scheme and reeled off 93 yards and a touchdown on 14 carries (6.6 YPC) in Seattle's regular season tuneup versus Kansas City's first-team defense. Turbin started the game in place of Marshawn Lynch, who's missing time with back spasms. Turbin is shaping up as a high-upside late-round RB5.

123. Lance Moore (ADP: Late 9th round)

124. Jared Cook (ADP: Mid 12th round)

125. Randy Moss (ADP: Early 10th round) -- Moss still has enough straight-line speed to threaten defenses vertically on occasion, but he's a poor fit for weak-armed Alex Smith in a run-heavy offense. News that Moss may only play 20-25 snaps per game, rotating with Mario Manningham, could lead to maddening inconsistency. I wouldn't want him on my fantasy roster.

126. Santonio Holmes (ADP: Mid 10th round)

127. Brandon Pettigrew (ADP: Late 7th round) -- Pettigrew is highly regarded in some fantasy circles as a big-name former first-round NFL pick. But he's never finished better than 11th among tight ends in fantasy scoring and puts you at a major disadvantage as more than a TE2 in standard leagues. Inconsistent and lacking big-play ability, Pettigrew won't be on any of my teams.

128. Alex Green (ADP: Undrafted) -- An October ACL tear should make most leery of Green's chances at significant 2012 fantasy impact, but he's clearly bypassed James Starks and has a leg up on Cedric Benson from the standpoint that Green excels in the passing game. The Packers are a passing team. It's not crazy to think the lead back job can be Green's by midyear.

129. Isaac Redman (ADP: Late 7th round)

130. Isaiah Pead (ADP: Early 13th round) -- Pead tumbled down my rankings after a poor preseason (25 carries, 2.0 YPC) followed by Jeff Fisher's announcement that he'd double up with seventh-rounder Daryl Washington in the event of a Steven Jackson injury. Pead has more talent than his August play suggests, but he's no longer a strong handcuff and will have little to no early-season offensive role. Pead has looked much better on kick returns than in the Rams' backfield.

131. Mike Williams (ADP: Early 11th round) -- I'd feel a lot better about Williams if I felt better about the Buccaneers' passing game. Vincent Jackson should be able to get his stats, but Josh Freeman's struggles have continued while learning new OC Mike Sullivan's offense. The Bucs will be a run-heavy team featuring Doug Martin and V-Jax. Williams may be an afterthought.

132. Matt Schaub (ADP: Late 9th round) -- Don't let his hot preseason trick you. While it's good news for the value of Andre Johnson, Schaub's fantasy ceiling is severely limited by the Texans' run-heavy ways. You want no part of him as a fantasy starter, and there are better QB2s.

Twelfth Round

133. Carson Palmer (ADP: Early 12th round)

134. LeGarrette Blount (ADP: Late 10th round)

135. Pierre Thomas (ADP: Late 11th round)

136. Bernard Scott (ADP: Undrafted)

137. Davone Bess (ADP: Undrafted)

138. Christian Ponder (ADP: Undrafted)

139. Ryan Fitzpatrick (ADP: Late 12th round)

140. Jermaine Gresham (ADP: Early 11th round)

141. Alshon Jeffery (ADP: Mid 11th round)

142. Braylon Edwards (ADP: Undrafted)

143. Danny Amendola (ADP: Late 9th round)

144. Lamar Miller (ADP: Undrafted)

Thirteenth Round

145. Felix Jones (ADP: Early 13th round) -- Jones secured his roster spot with a solid showing in the third preseason game (eight touches, 57 yards), but he's been all but deleted from the first-team offense. He's a dicey handcuff for entrenched every-down back DeMarco Murray.

146. Vick Ballard (ADP: Undrafted)

147. Josh Freeman (ADP: Early 12th round) -- Freeman was awful last season and has been worse in August. I still think he can be a franchise quarterback after a full season or two in Mike Sullivan's offense, but I wanted to see signs of improvement to endorse him as a QB2 for 2012. Greg Schiano's run-first offense pops Freeman's balloon.

148. Owen Daniels (ADP: Late 13th round) -- If you're into drafting TE2s -- and plenty of savvy owners are not -- look elsewhere. Daniels is going to lose targets this season to summer star Garrett Graham, and Houston's run-first offense puts a low ceiling on his fantasy appeal.

149. Emmanuel Sanders (ADP: Early 14th round) -- Sanders would have been a lot more intriguing had Mike Wallace held out into the regular season. With Wallace caving, Sanders will return to the slot in Todd Haley's offense, operating as a part-time player. He's still a worthy WR5 who could ascend to every-week WR3 production if Wallace or Antonio Brown were to get injured.

150. Mikel Leshoure (ADP: Mid 10th round) -- He'll have to do better than five preseason carries for one yard to convince me he's worth a fantasy pick coming off a torn Achilles' tendon. I don't think there's any way Leshoure will earn more than 8-10 carries a game this season, and he doesn't play in the passing game. We can revisit Leshoure's fantasy outlook in 2013.

Left out of Top 150: Broncos RB Ronnie Hillman, Patriots RB Shane Vereen, Rams WRs Brian Quick and Steve Smith, Colts TE Coby Fleener, Steelers RBs Rashard Mendenhall and Jonathan Dwyer, Bengals QB Andy Dalton, Jaguars WR Laurent Robinson, Packers RB James Starks, Redskins WRs Leonard Hankerson and Santana Moss, Jets TE Dustin Keller, Raiders RBs Mike Goodson and Taiwan Jones, Vikings WR Jerome Simpson, Ravens RB Bernard Pierce, Redskins RB Tim Hightower, Seahawks WR Doug Baldwin, Eagles TE Brent Celek, 49ers WR Mario Manningham, Dolphins RB Daniel Thomas, Chiefs WR Jon Baldwin, Browns TE Jordan Cameron, Colts WR LaVon Brazill, Dolphins WR Brian Hartline, Cardinals WR Michael Floyd.

 

[HacheMan]

'You Heard Me'

Very bold fantasy predictions for each team in 2012


By Matthew Berry | ESPN.com

"This 'telephone' has too many shortcomings to be seriously considered as a means of communication. The device is inherently of no value to us." -- Western Union internal memo, 1876.

"You ain't goin' nowhere, son. You ought to go back to drivin' a truck." -- Jimmy Denny, manager of the Grand Ole Opry, to Elvis Presley in 1954.


"I think there is a world market for maybe five computers." -- Thomas Watson, chairman of IBM, 1943.


"There is no reason anyone would want a computer in their home." -- Ken Olson, president, chairman, founder of Digital Equipment Corp, 1977.


"He has a shot at winning (the Giants') 4th receiver role." -- The 2011 ESPN Fantasy Football profile of Victor Cruz.


"Don't quit show business. Who could ever make a living at fantasy football?" -- Pretty much everyone I talked to in 2005.


Most of these examples, and many more, can be found in this piece from Herbert I. London, where the lack of an open mind and the eternity of the Internet have captured forever the embarrassing lessons all these people learned the hard way. As any self-respecting fantasy football player has known for a long time, speaking in absolutes only sets you up to look stupid. Because "never" is a bad word. "Unlikely" is much better.


Just because something is not probable to happen doesn't mean it can't happen. Because as anyone who owned Cruz, Laurent Robinson, Cam Newton or Rob Gronkowski last season will tell you, unlikely is what helps win fantasy football leagues. Or, as Adrian Peterson, Jamaal Charles and Chris Johnson owners will testify, it also helps you lose them.


"At its fundamental level, fantasy football is all about minimizing risk and giving yourself the best odds to win." -- Matthew Berry, the 2012 Draft Day Manifesto.


Did I just quote myself? You're damn right I just quoted myself. This article is not about following form or being proper and pretty. No, it's messy. It's the exact opposite of smart decision-making, of minimizing risk, of giving yourself the best odds.


In fact, this column is about going against the odds. Long shots. Lottery tickets.

Generally speaking, there are two types of predictions: likely to happen and unlikely to happen. Different degrees within both, to be sure, but they all boil down to one of the two.


For example; Likely to happen: Drew Brees will throw for at least 4,300 yards and 34 touchdowns, as he has done for each of the last four seasons. Unlikely to happen: With no Sean Payton calling the plays, no more Robert Meachem and pressing too hard to justify his $100 million contract, Brees struggles and falls out of the top 10 of fantasy quarterbacks.


There's a reason Brees is one of the top draft picks year after year. He's actually had at least 4,300 passing yards every season he's been in New Orleans. I have him at No. 6 overall this year, so you know I believe he makes it seven straight seasons in 2012.


But could the second scenario also happen? Of course. Another consistent guy, Philip Rivers, went from averaging 11 interceptions a year over the past three to throwing 20 picks last season, contributing to his fewest touchdown passes since 2007.


You never know.


Our official ESPN fantasy projection for Brees is 4,921 yards and 43 touchdowns. It has been researched, studied, thought about in-depth, and, given Brees' track record, is completely believable and reasonable.


The rest of ESPN's fantasy analysis -- our draft kits, our rankings, podcasts, videos, Fantasy Football Now episodes, even my other columns -- are the same way. You might not agree with the conclusions drawn, but every single thing we offer up, given the full scope of data we have to work with, is likely to happen on some level.


Everything except this. This is my bold predictions column, and the reason they are bold predictions is that they are not likely to happen. Doesn't mean impossible. Just not likely.


Victor Cruz had had some flashy preseason moments in 2010, but injuries and the Giants' depth at wide receiver kept him on the bench. He looked great again in the 2011 preseason, but once again, it was deemed unlikely that he would get on the field in a significant enough manner to get the opportunity to shine, and that his skill, explosive but still raw, would carry him to fantasy stardom.


But, as we found out … unlikely doesn't mean impossible.


So my goal in this column is to find things that are fairly unlikely to happen but are still possible. I call it "You Heard Me."

Pretend we are hanging out and I have decided, for once, to put down my phone and actually engage in conversation. It's 12 months ago and I say to you what I said in this exact column last year; "Matthew Stafford will be a top-five fantasy quarterback this year."


And you say, "What? The guy who is always injured?"


And then I say, "You heard me!"


Stafford did in fact finish last season as a top fantasy quarterback and it helped ease the pain of another bold prediction from last year's article: "Michael Vick will play all 16 games."


Anyway, here's how I suggest you use this article, other than as self-help motivation ("Well, my predictions are bad, but they're better than this guy's): The point is not so much to nail impossible predictions, but rather to illuminate some players I have strong feelings about, one way or the other. For example, last year in this column I predicted "Over the second half of the season, Isaac Redman is a top-20 fantasy running back. My thinking: Rashard Mendenhall succumbs to the Curse of 370 (playoff edition)."


That didn't happen, as Redman never got a lot of run. But if you decided to pass on using a top-12 pick on Mendenhall last year as a result of the prediction, you're probably not upset, as Mendenhall finished with the same number of fantasy points as Colt McCoy, falling short of a top-50 finish.


Last year in this space I nailed big seasons for Percy Harvin, Stafford, Willis McGahee, Marshawn Lynch and Aaron Hernandez. Of course, I was also down on Eli Manning and Maurice Jones-Drew and high on guys like Delone Carter, Lance Kendricks and Jacoby Ford. Yeah. They're not all winners, kids. This is very high-risk, high-reward territory we are entering, so please don't put more stock into it than use intended. But as I always say, there is no such thing as a bad pick after Round 12; they should all be lottery tickets at that point.


I've got one prediction for each team and I'm going in alphabetical order:


Arizona Cardinals: Ryan Williams, coming off major surgery and going in the 12th round, finishes as a top-20 fantasy running back. My thinking: I hate Beanie Wells. And I think the Cards do, too. Wells fell into 1,000 yards and 10 touchdowns last season, and Williams is a better running back.


Atlanta Falcons: Matt Ryan throws for over 4,500 yards, 35 touchdowns and is a top-five fantasy quarterback. My thinking: They finally let him throw deep, throw into the red zone, throw to a running back that isn't Michael Turner. Throw throw throw. To Julio Jones. Who is as pure as a baby's smile. Mmm, Julio Jones.


Baltimore Ravens: Torrey Smith catches for 1,300 yards and nine touchdowns. My thinking: He's got the speed and he's got a big-arm quarterback who targets him deep; now they just need to land in his hands. He's the No. 1 target there and my best guess at "Who is this year's Jordy Nelson?" Of course, a better bold prediction would be if I bet I could go an entire article without talking about him.


Buffalo Bills: Fred Jackson finishes the season in the top 10 in the NFL in offensive touches. My thinking: C.J. Spiller is nice and will get some run, but Jackson made this offense hum last year and the Bills will be at their best when the ball is in his hands. Not worried about Spiller playing the spoiler is my main point here, I guess.


Carolina Panthers: Eight touchdowns for Mike Tolbert. My thinking: The Chargers gave it to him in San Diego, Jonathan Stewart is already banged up and maybe Ron Rivera decides, size or no size, that sending the franchise quarterback crashing into the goal line isn't the greatest idea.

Chicago Bears: Over 3,000 combined yards and 20 touchdowns between Matt Forte and Brandon Marshall, making both top five at their positions. My thinking: Both are studs, of course, so to make this semi-bold, I had to go nuts on the scores, as that's the one argument against them. Think the concerns about Michael Bush are overstated; the Bears didn't give Forte a big payday to have him watch from the sideline. And the hype on Marshall is justified.


Cincinnati Bengals: BenJarvus Green-Ellis is a top-10 fantasy running back. My thinking: He'll get all the carries, teams will be more worried about A.J. Green than him, and if healthy and given how the Bengals run in the red zone, he's a mortal lock for double-digit touchdowns.


Cleveland Browns: Trent Richardson averages less than 80 rushing yards a game and is outside the top 30 at running back. My thinking: Hate the schedule, the O-line, the two knee operations ...


Dallas Cowboys: Dez Bryant has 1,300 yards and 13 touchdowns. My thinking: That's exactly what I wrote last year. He had 900 and nine. If I keep writing it, it'll eventually happen.


Denver Broncos: McGahee is a top-10 fantasy running back. My thinking: What are they gonna do, let Peyton throw it? Oh yeah. Well, when they do, it's a lot less pressure on McGahee, who will have an easier time staying healthy. And they will score a lot more. People don't realize Peyton Manning likes to run the ball when he gets close.


Detroit Lions: 1,000 yards for Titus Young. My thinking: Well, when they've triple-covered Calvin ...


Green Bay Packers: 800 yards and six scores for Randall Cobb. My thinking: You know what happens when you have someone who is crazy fast catching balls thrown to him by Aaron Rodgers? Good things, my friend. Magical things.

Houston Texans: Andre Johnson finishes outside the top 30 at wide receiver. My thinking: I'm cheating because that's exactly what happened last year to currently-going-in-the-second-round Andre Johnson. I know, betting against Johnson's health is not exactly earth-shattering, but what do you want me to do? Dump on Arian Foster? Come on. Plus, I said top 30. He's going in the second!


Indianapolis Colts: Top-15 fantasy running back ... Donald Brown. My thinking: He's a good pass-catcher and all they really have at the position, so expect a lot of carries and dump-offs. They will need to run to set up play action for Andrew Luck.


Jacksonville Jaguars: Rashad Jennings has more fantasy points than Jones-Drew. My thinking: Does a holdout ever end well?


Kansas City Chiefs: Over 3,000 total yards and 16 touchdowns for Charles and Peyton Hillis combined. My thinking: The smile of a pretty woman, the laugh of a child, an overachieving Brian Daboll running back ... all things I believe in.


Miami Dolphins: 1,000 total yards for Daniel Thomas. My thinking: This team is going nowhere. At some point, the Dolphins have to see what they have in Thomas. Reggie Bush is no guarantee to stay healthy. If Brian Hartline was healthy, it might be something about him. Also thought about Anthony Fasano, as Joe Philbin loves to use his tight ends.


Minnesota Vikings: Harvin is one of fantasy's top two wide receivers. My thinking: I love the stat I've been shouting all summer long. Once Christian Ponder took over, Harvin had 100 touches, 26 more than any other wide receiver over the same time frame.


New England Patriots: Brandon Lloyd is the other top two fantasy wide receiver. My thinking: Deep threat plus Tom Brady plus Josh McDaniels loves him plus defenses having to worry about everyone else equals at least one deep touchdown a game.


New Orleans Saints: Fourteen touchdowns for Mark Ingram. My thinking: They go more conservative with no Payton, they'll obviously be in the red zone a lot, and Ingram is finally healthy.


New York Giants: David Wilson has the best fantasy season of any rookie running back. My thinking: Ahmad Bradshaw is no iron man when it comes to injury, Wilson's looked great, and I could see Richardson (and, to an extent, Doug Martin) failing because of offensive line woes, etc.


New York Jets: Tim Tebow ends the season as a top-15 fantasy quarterback. My thinking: Sad as it is to say this, he's the Jets' best offensive weapon and if he got the starting gig, he'd run enough to be startable.

Oakland Raiders: Darren McFadden plays all 16 games. My thinking: Hope springs eternal. Thought this was bolder than saying something great about Denarius Moore and Darrius Heyward-Bey, whom I also like. Or Taiwan Jones, whom I think is the handcuff you want.


Philadelphia Eagles: Vick plays all 16 games. My thinking: Doubling down with McFadden. What could possibly go wrong?


Pittsburgh Steelers: Antonio Brown is a top-10 receiver. And Mike Wallace is outside the top 20. My thinking: Brown was basically top 10 in most NFL receiving categories from Week 7 on, and Wallace was outside the top 30. The holdout helped my cause, not the other way around.


San Diego Chargers: Antonio Gates plays all 16 games. My thinking: Who doesn't love a three-player parlay?


San Francisco 49ers: Kendall Hunter has more fantasy points than Frank Gore. My thinking: Gore is done. Hunter just needs the chance and there's a few ways that could happen.


Seattle Seahawks: The Seahawks are a top-five fantasy defense. My thinking: A good secondary and six games against the Rams, Cardinals and 49ers are pretty good places to start.


St. Louis Rams: Danny Amendola has a 90-catch season. My thinking: I still believe in Sam Bradford's talent and Amendola has the talent to do this. If both guys are healthy ...


Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Mike Williams catches for 1,000 yards, making him fantasy relevant again. My thinking:Josh Freeman bounces back and, without the pressure of having to be "the guy" and Vincent Jackson taking a lot of defensive attention, Williams is able to return to the wideout we saw two years ago.


Tennessee Titans: 1,000 yards for Kenny Britt. My thinking: Don't think he gets suspended for very long and, when healthy, he has top-10 wide receiver upside. The Titans are going to be a lot better than folks give them credit for.


Washington Redskins: Garcon is a top 15-wide receiver. My thinking: Ha! Thought I was going RG3 there, didn't you? Well, Garcon has been the most targeted guy in preseason and, according to reports, in practice too. You see how they were taking deep shots against the Colts in their preseason game? They will throw it in Washington this season.

 

[HacheMan]

Tim Tebow worth late-round flier

By James Quintong | ESPN.com

What is Tim Tebow's fantasy value with the New York Jets?



In one of the more underreported stories this summer, the New York Jets acquired quarterback Tim Tebow from the Denver Broncos. Forget about Tebow the media personality, Tebow the football player seems to me to be a cross between ex-Jets Pat Ryan (the team's popular, longtime backup quarterback in the '80s) and Brad Smith (who had sporadic success running Wildcat plays).

However, unlike either Ryan or Smith, Tebow potentially still has decent fantasy value even if he doesn't start a game. In fact, Tebow's current average draft position is actually better than Mark Sanchez's, the Jets' actual starting quarterback. Of course, it's not really saying much, as Tebow is a 15th-round pick on average, while Sanchez is barely being drafted at all. Then again, Tebow is a very intriguing fantasy prospect given what he's done in his career and how the Jets may use him this season.


Tebow finished last season 18th among quarterbacks in fantasy scoring with 186 points in ESPN standard leagues despite not starting until Week 7. And if you take the games in which he saw significant action (beginning with a Week 5 relief appearance against the San Diego Chargers), he averaged 16.9 fantasy points per contest. Those points per game were higher than Sanchez (14.2), along with Tony Romo (16.6), Matt Ryan (16.3) and Philip Rivers (15.4), and very close to Eli Manning (17.1) and Michael Vick (17.1).


Interestingly, 83 of Tebow's 186 points (44.6 percent) came from his rushing stats, although it's worth noting he lost six fumbles last season, so that percentage could be even higher. He also threw only six interceptions last season, which seems a bit low given his accuracy issues, so it's actually surprising the run/pass point percentage was that low.

Surprisingly, Tebow is the first quarterback to rush for at least six touchdowns in consecutive seasons. (Players like Randall Cunningham, Steve McNair, Donovan McNabb, Michael Vick and Steve Young have multiple campaigns with at least six TDs, just not in consecutive seasons.) So while my colleague Christopher Harris warns about drafting quarterbacks based on their rushing-TD potential, Tebow appears to be a completely different type of player, and applying that type of analysis may not necessarily work on him.


Tebow definitely has a nose for the end zone when he gets close, as he's scored nine of his 12 career rushing TDs inside an opponent's 10-yard line. And he's scored those nine TDs in just 11 carries, for a nice 81.8 percent conversion rate. (Interestingly, Sanchez scored six times on eight carries inside the 10 last season, which isn't too shabby, either.)


The Jets have brought in former Miami Dolphins head coach Tony Sparano to be the offensive coordinator. Sparano was the head coach in 2008 when the Dolphins popularized the Wildcat formation, with running back Ronnie Brown often taking the snap from a shotgun formation and piling up big yards on the ground. It appears Sparano wants a bit of a Wildcat revival with Tebow in the Ronnie Brown role. Sure, Tebow provides more of a threat passing the ball than Brown, but his rushing prowess (career average of 5.4 yards per rush) makes him a potentially dangerous weapon, even in small doses. And if he gets more looks at the goal line, he could outscore all sorts of quarterbacks even on a part-time basis.


It still remains to be seen how much the Jets will run the Wildcat and how much they'll actually use Tebow on a week-to-week basis, but they do appear invested in getting him his share of snaps. In his career, he's averaged 10.4 rushing attempts per game when he's started. Even if he doesn't start a game this season, it wouldn't seem too crazy to see him get about seven or eight carries per game, and if he maintains his career 5.4 yards per carry, that's still about 40 rushing yards per game with the potential for a rushing TD every week. That would give him about 10 points per week; granted, with a large variation in points in either direction, and that doesn't include any passing yardage.
The less said about Tebow the passer, the better. His passing skills are still a work in progress -- he is a career 47.3 percent passer, which makes his career TD/INT ratio of nearly 2-to-1 (17 TDs, 9 INTs) somewhat puzzling. I guess if his receivers can't catch them, neither can opposing defenders. His performance during the preseason hasn't necessarily inspired much confidence that he'll do a whole lot with the passing game if he does take over full time. There aren't a lot of established weapons beyond Santonio Holmes and Dustin Keller, although the Jets did draft Stephen Hill, who has a similar background to Demaryius Thomas, one of Tebow's top targets last season. Of course, that background is of a physically talented but raw wide receiver who played in a very run-heavy Georgia Tech offense. That said, if Hill does become more involved in the passing game than he likely is now, it appears those extra yards and TDs would just be gravy for Tebow.


Obviously, without a guaranteed starting role, it's difficult to predict Tebow's overall looks per game, but there's definitely the potential for big numbers even in small packages. It's possible to think of his week-to-week fantasy potential much like a decent time-share or handcuff running back such as DeAngelo Williams, Pierre Thomas or Ben Tate. You know they'll get their share of looks, although it's likely no more than 15 or so any given week, and you hope they can do something useful with them and maybe something even more explosive.


If Tebow doesn't throw a single pass this season, I don't think the Jets would be upset with that, as long as he provides solid production on the ground on a consistent basis. (That could open up a whole different discussion of whether Tebow is a quarterback or a running back.) While Tebow is definitely not a starting fantasy quarterback in his current role, there are still all sorts of possibilities with what he can do. I wouldn't necessarily want to make him my No. 2 quarterback in 10- or 12-team leagues, but rather would stash him as a No. 3 QB as my last bench spot. In deeper leagues, he's worth getting for the upside, especially if you're uninspired by some of the other potential backups out there.

 

[HacheMan]

Who will be this year's 'TD vultures?'

Eric Karabell

I recall a few months ago, when those owning Chicago Bears running back Matt Forte in keeper leagues bemoaned the Bears' signing of Michael Bush, worried that it would harm Forte's value. After all, Bush is larger than Forte and capable of regular duty. One of the main reasons he was brought in was to handle the goal-line rushing attempts, or be Forte's "touchdown vulture," if you will. Well, my thought both then and now is that this signing was largely irrelevant to Forte's value; it's not like Forte was piling on the rushing touchdowns in the first place.




In fact, Forte, as tremendous a player as he is in the open field -- he was the league leader with 201 yards from scrimmage when he hurt his knee the first week of December -- has never been a particularly strong option near the goal line, thus the Bush signing makes sense. This doesn't lessen Forte's value. If anything, it could be a positive, as someone with a 30-pound advantage can handle the high-leverage and potentially more injurious touches. We want Forte healthy.


<offer>Look at previous TD vultures for the Bears, and Bush should succeed where Chester Taylor and Marion Barber failed. Barber, now retired, actually scored six rushing touchdowns last season, double the total of Forte, but he battled injuries as well, and cost the Bears a December game. Did he hurt Forte's value when both were active? I say he didn't, and neither will Bush. </offer>
<offer></offer>
<offer>Don't expect a Bush flirtation with 1,000 yards again, as Forte has a much better track record of durability compared with Darren McFadden, but seven or eight rushing touchdowns seems feasible, along with about 40 rushing yards per game, making him a reasonable bye week fill-in and certainly a valuable handcuff for Forte. Bush has 12 touchdowns from inside the 5-yard line over the past two seasons, and there's little reason to expect different. Bush is going in the ninth round -- I rank him 92nd overall -- and I'd bump him up a bit in touchdown-heavy formats.


Of course, Bush isn't the only touchdown vulture around. It's worth noting that the days of a Jerome Bettis scoring nine touchdowns on only 110 rushing attempts in 2005 seem well in the past. Last season only 30 players rushed for five or more touchdowns, and of that crew, I'd call only Mike Tolbert, Brandon Jacobs and Barber true vultures. Green Bay Packers bowling ball John Kuhn rushed for four touchdowns on 30 carries, so he was close.


Tolbert and Jacobs are in new places now (and technically, so is Barber), and between them I'd choose Tolbert as a vulture. Don't expect Tolbert, now with the Carolina Panthers, to hurt the value of Jonathan Stewart or DeAngelo Williams much, though. If anything, his touchdown production will cut into what quarterback Cam Newton can achieve, perhaps dividing Newton's rookie rushing touchdown total of 14 at least in half. Jacobs is dealing with knee woes, and if he does make the San Francisco 49ers, his impact seems likely to be far less when compared with his New York Giants days.


The most interesting touchdown vulture will likely be New York Jets quarterback Tim Tebow. You've heard of him, right? Tebow is not listed as a running back, but imagine if he was! Tebow already has 12 rushing touchdowns in his short career, and his prowess in this area should hurt both starting quarterback (for now) Mark Sanchez, who tied Tebow for second among all passers with six rushing scores, and running back Shonn Greene. Alas, it's risky to activate Tebow in any leagues at quarterback if Sanchez is starting. With Bush or Tolbert, the case can be made for them during bye weeks, as they are running backs.


Here are a few other situations to keep an eye on:

</offer>• When Ryan Mathews gets healthy, and his status for Week 1 remains up in the air, it's likely Tolbert's former role as TD vulture will be filled by fullback Le'Ron McClain or Ronnie Brown. I vote for McClain, who was an effective goal-line choice in Baltimore in 2008, and he's still in great shape.


• Tampa Bay Buccaneers rookie Doug Martin seems poised for big things, but the bigger LeGarrette Blount isn't going away. Blount hasn't been a strong touchdown-maker in his two seasons, but he remains worth drafting even if his touches are reduced because it's unlikely Martin sees them all, especially near the goal line.


• I wouldn't call Peyton Hillis a touchdown vulture in Kansas City. He and Jamaal Charles will each be plenty busy, though the considerably larger Hillis should get far more attention at the goal line.


• Similarly, don't look for Darren Sproles to get many goal-line rushes when the New Orleans Saints are in position to score. Then again, did anyone get them? Sproles and then-rookie Mark Ingram each received a mere three goal-line attempts last year. Ingram and Pierre Thomas each rushed for five touchdowns. There's no real vulture here; a healthy Ingram will get plenty of rushing attempts all over the field, and Sproles will still do his receiving thing.


• By the way, Kuhn is still on the Packers, just in case the team gets tired of Cedric Benson running into his linemen at the goal line. Kuhn has 12 total touchdowns over the past two seasons, eight of them rushing.