NFL Fantasy News 2012

[HacheMan]

Peterson a true risk/reward pick

After tearing his ACL last Christmas Eve, Peterson's health a serious concern

By Ken Daube | Special to ESPN.com

When does the upside of Adrian Peterson outweigh the risk of picking him?

You don't have to be one of those really amazing NASA scientists who aided in the historic landing on Mars to know that drafting Adrian Peterson this season comes with risk. However, it's not necessary to actually calculate just what level of risk Peterson presents, it's more important to understand how that risk can be parlayed into a championship season.


Let's start with this simple fact: Nobody knows what Peterson will deliver this season. Even if we read all the medical reports in the presence of the most trained medical professionals, Peterson's physical readiness won't be known until after your draft takes place. With this in mind, we should instead try to quantify what level of production should be reasonably expected from Peterson.

Our team of experts is projecting a season of 1,321 total yards and eight scores from Peterson. When broken down into individual game scores, this would amount to 177 fantasy points for the season. That total would have placed him as the seventh-highest-scoring running back for the entire 2011 season (Peterson actually finished seventh last season with 181 points in just 11 games). When you factor in the five additional games that are projected for Peterson this season, you should realize that we are actually projecting a 32 percent drop in per-game performance. That's a serious difference.


As I analyze that, I wonder if we are too low on Peterson's ranking. Yes, there is risk involved in selecting Peterson. He could wind up on the physically unable to perform list to begin the season, resulting in a waste of an early-round selection for the first six weeks. That being said, if you're going to draft AP early, you clearly have to think the probability of that happening is slim, so it likely doesn't factor into your personal rankings.


There's also the matter of the legal proceedings that are pending regarding a misdemeanor resisting arrest charge. There are two hearings now scheduled regarding that matter, the first on Sept. 27 and the second on Nov. 15. As Peterson does not have a history of legal issues and the potential for further continuances in these proceedings exist, I am not at all concerned about this issue affecting Peterson's fantasy value at all.


Based on those two assessments, there's a good probability Peterson will be available to score the 177 fantasy points that we have projected for him. Some of you will look at those numbers and find that very un-Peterson like and want to downgrade him. Don't.


First, look at the amount of risk like this: How many of the early-round running backs were busts last season? By my count, Chris Johnson, Rashard Mendenhall and Peyton Hillis were all selected in the first three rounds and were clear busts. Considering only 14 backs went in the first 30 picks, you had better than a 20 percent chance of busting on your running back selection early on anyway. Is Peterson's chance at not being available to put up those 177 projected points really that bad? I would say no.

This leaves us with the projection of the 177 points and where it should be selected. Currently, we have Peterson ranked as our 11th best running back entering the season. This ranking takes into account both his projection and the risk that our panel associated with taking Peterson. I believe we are overstating his risk and understating the risk of Marshawn Lynch, Matt Forte, DeMarco Murray and Jamaal Charles.


Think about these items for a moment:


• Marshawn Lynch is facing legal issues and while he dominated in 2011, he posted a very disappointing 3.5 yards per carry in 2010. Which Lynch are you going to get?


• Matt Forte's backup went from Marion Barber to Michael Bush. Bush has shown the skills to be used as an every-down back and will get all the goal-line work. Forte doesn't have upside beyond what he did last season.


• DeMarco Murray has two career rushing touchdowns and a history of injuries dating back to college.


• Jamaal Charles is also coming back from a torn ACL. While he was out, the Kansas City Chiefs went out and secured Peyton Hillis to be the banger in their ground attack, much like Thomas Jones used to be.


When I view those pieces of information, I can't see why Peterson would have any more risk than those four candidates. Further, I think it's absolutely clear that his upside is fantasy MVP, since he's accomplished that before. With all of that in mind, I'm recommending that Peterson's value be slotted up to the seventh overall running back and that he be drafted accordingly.

 

[HacheMan]

Is Meachem or Floyd the better bet?

With Vincent Jackson in Tampa, Philip Rivers needs to find a new favorite WR

By Christopher Harris | ESPN.com

Whom will be Philip Rivers' top WR target since Vincent Jackson is gone?

It's fair for San Diego Chargers fans to shake their heads at general manager A.J. Smith's personnel decisions.


He let Drew Brees walk in favor of Philip Rivers. He let Michael Turner sign with the Atlanta Falcons and promptly saw LaDainian Tomlinson's production fall off a cliff. For years, many, including me, wondered what Darren Sproles could do with an expanded offensive role, but Smith watched him follow Brees to New Orleans. Sammy Davis (2003), Buster Davis ('07) and Larry English ('09) have been first-round busts in Smith's tenure, and the jury is very much out on Antoine Cason ('10) and Corey Liuget ('11), who have had shaky starts to their NFL careers.


Will refusing to pay $26 million guaranteed to Vincent Jackson this winter be added to the list?

Jackson was a perfect fit for Rivers. He is huge (6-foot-5, 230 pounds) and can fly (4.46 40 at the 2005 combine). During the past four seasons, Jackson is second among NFL receivers in average yards at the catch (how far down the field a pass-catcher is when he grabs a ball). Norv Turner's offense prizes downfield passing, and Rivers has the perfect wing for it; his 51 attempts that traveled 40-plus yards in the air from 2008 to 2011 is second highest among NFL quarterbacks -- only Joe Flacco has more.


Indeed, in that four-year span, Jackson was by far Rivers' favorite wide receiver target. Despite sitting out 10 games of the 2010 season because of a contract dispute -- more Smith trouble -- Jackson had 347 targets in that span. The second-highest wide receiver in that time (Malcom Floyd) had 260 targets, and third was Chris Chambers with 95.


Now that Jackson has left for the Buccaneers' big money, Smith changed course by signing a player away from the Saints: Robert Meachem. Presumably, Meachem and Floyd become the leading candidates to be Rivers' big-play receivers. Unfortunately, there are major warts on each man.


Floyd has a difficult time staying healthy. His career has been a drawn-out tease punctuated by hip, groin, shoulder, hamstring and head injuries. In his seven NFL seasons, he has exceeded 12 games once. He turns 31 in September and will be a free agent after the season. Despite the fact that he passes the eye test (6-5, 225 pounds), one wonders if he can handle an increase in targets.


Meanwhile Meachem, a former first-rounder, has played three consecutive 16-game seasons, lessening concerns about his early-career injury woes. (He missed his entire rookie season after undergoing knee surgery.) But production in the Saints' high-octane pass offense wasn't consistently there for the physically gifted (6-2, 210 pounds, 4.39 40) Meachem. He never caught more than 45 passes in a season and exceeded 100 yards receiving in only four of 62 regular-season games.

So who shines brighter in this new Chargers era? My preference is Meachem, because (A) Floyd is a bad bet to stay healthy; (B) Meachem is faster and a more naturally gifted route-runner and catcher; and (C) Meachem is the dude making the serious money ($14 million guaranteed overall, compared to $2 million this year for Floyd).


That said, I don't expect either of these guys to duplicate the 60-catch, 1,106-yard, nine-touchdown season Jackson produced for San Diego in 2011. Antonio Gates is still around, and Ryan Mathews is the man in the Chargers' backfield who should be a greater focal point in the offense for as long as he's healthy. While I think Rivers will regain some of the luster he lost last season, the fact remains that he tossed 20 picks in 2011 and saw his completion percentage edge lower (62.9 percent) than it had since 2007. I guarantee San Diego will execute more pass plays than rushing plays this season, but I wouldn't be shocked to see their run/pass ratio become run heavier than 19th in the NFL, as it was in 2011.


Why am I not higher on Meachem? Partly it's that Floyd is physically better suited to play the Jackson role. Remember how I mentioned that Jackson was second in average yards at the catch over the past four seasons? Well, Floyd was first. He actually made more big plays with Rivers tossing it to him than Jackson did. He just couldn't stay on the field. As long as he's out there, Floyd is a major drain on Meachem's week-to-week potential.


Alas, because he is so likely to get banged-up, Floyd will frustrate any fantasy owner who relies on him. I have Meachem rated No. 28 among wide receivers and Floyd 41st, though each has upside. Meanwhile, it sounds as if Eddie Royal could make some hay out of the slot and be worth a look in deep PPR leagues, while Vincent Brown will have to wait for injuries to get a real opportunity in 2012.

 

[HacheMan]

Get the handcuffs out: Part 1 Essentially your fantasy football health insurance, handcuffs should always been in the back of your mind when making draft day selections.

The usual thought process is simple: if you pick a player, handcuff him with his immediate backup later on in the draft.

But that’s not always the right way to go. Not all handcuffs are created equal. Instead of simply selecting your top pick’s backup, consider the following:

1. Will this backup see the same number of reps as the starter?
2. Is the backup any good?
3. Are their more-talented handcuffs in a better situation still available?


Steven Jackson and LeSean McCoy are both early-round picks this season. Jackson’s handcuff, Isaiah Pead, is worthy of RB2 consideration when Jackson is out. McCoy, however, doesn’t have a clear handcuff. Dion Lewis isn’t nearly as talented and is feeling pressure from rookie Bryce Brown for the No. 2 job. If you own McCoy, don’t feel like you need to reach on Lewis instead of snagging a lottery ticket like Pead. After all, Lewis wouldn’t be that great a play regardless.

Although I just used running back as an introduction and example, Adam Levitan will provide an in-depth look at the top running back handcuffs in part-two of this series tomorrow.

Today, I’ll be looking at the other three fantasy-relevant offensive positions: quarterback, wide receiver, and tight end. Handcuffs aren’t as prominent at these positions, but there are a few guys you need to keep in the back of your mind on draft day. These players would instantly jump onto the fantasy radar if one of the players above them on the depth chart went down with an injury.

Note: Any player listed under ‘Honorable Mention’ is worth of waiver wire consideration if his team’s starter is out of action.

Quarterbacks

1. Tim Tebow – Jets
Starter: Mark Sanchez

Outlook: Yes, the camp story everyone is tired of hearing about leads off our list. Tebow is already going to be on the field a ton, handling several roles, including that of part-time goal line back. That role won’t change much (if at all) if Sanchez were to go down with an injury. Additionally, he’d pick up a good 25 or so pass attempts each week. Even if he’s below average as a passer (a safe bet), the strong rushing numbers will, at worst, make him a borderline top-12 fantasy quarterback. He’s the best quarterback handcuff available.

2. Jake Locker – Titans
Starter: Matt Hasselbeck

Outlook: This one is tricky because Locker could easily be the team’s Week 1 starter. That said, if the tables were turned, Hasselbeck would still make this list, making the situation worth a look. With a re-energized Chris Johnson, the Titans figure to try and lean heavily on him, but they were one of 2011’s pass-heaviest teams despite a decent 9-7 record. Additionally, they have a strong group of playmakers to utilize in the passing game. Locker will suffer growing pains, but he would have QB1 upside with Kenny Britt, Nate Washington, Kendall Wright, and Jared Cook catching his passes.

3. Brian Hoyer – Patriots
Starter: Tom Brady

Outlook: See Cassel, Matt, circa 2008. The last time Tom Brady went down with a long-term injury, Cassel stepped up and threw for 3,693 yards and scored 23 total touchdowns. Brian Hoyer is not nearly as good as Brady, but they wouldn’t have tendered him at the second-round level this past offseason if he wasn’t a more-than-competent backup. Hoyer would step into one of the league’s top pass offenses with the likes of Wes Welker, Rob Gronkowski, Aaron Hernandez, and Brandon Lloyd at his disposal. Worried he might not pan out? Deep leaguers can consider Ryan Mallett, who arguably as more upside.

4. Kyle Orton – Cowboys
Starter: Tony Romo

Outlook: Orton might lack upside, but, with 69 career starts to his name, has the experience you want at the No. 2 quarterback position. He’d certainly be a downgrade to Romo, but, still only 30, he figures to have plenty left in the tank. Considering the Cowboys’ strong offensive attack, Orton makes for a strong QB2 in fantasy.

5. Jason Campbell – Bears
Starter: Jay Cutler

Outlook: I could almost just write ‘See No. 4’ here. Very much like the situation in Dallas, the Bears went out and signed a veteran quarterback with plenty of starting experience as their top reserve. Campbell has 70 career starts and will put up a few points with his legs, as well. The Bears would lean a bit more on the run if Cutler went down, but, unlike last season, the offense wouldn’t fall off a cliff. Campbell would make for a decent QB2.


Honorable Mention: Matt Moore (MIA), Shaun Hill (DET), Graham Harrell (GB), Chris Redman (ATL), Chase Daniel (NO), Russell Wilson (SEA), David Carr (NYG), Ryan Tannehill (MIA)

Wide Receiver

Wide Receivers are a bit trickier because several from each team will be on fantasy rosters and the handcuff’s value really depends on which of those owned players is out of action. For example, Bears’ receivers Brandon Marshall and Earl Bennett both figure to be owned in most leagues. If Marshall goes down with an injury, there’s more opportunity for a handcuff than there would be if Bennett went down. I was sure to keep this concept in mind when choosing my top-five wide receiver handcuffs. Note that the handcuff has more value if the first ‘starter’ listed goes down than if it’s the second or third starter.

1. Vincent Brown – Chargers
Starters: Robert Meachem, Malcom Floyd

Outlook: Brown enters his sophomore year fourth on the Chargers’ wide receiver depth chart. He put up a few strong games in 2011, but they came when injuries forced him into the regular rotation. When Floyd and Vincent Jackson were both healthy, however, he was relegated to No. 4 duties, behind slot man Patrick Crayton. Jackson and Crayton are out, but Meachem and Eddie Royal are in. Brown would be in for a good six or seven targets each week and would have exceptional scoring potential if one of the top-two went down with an injury. He’s worthy of a late-round pick as the top wide receiver handcuff available.

2. Jabar Gaffney - Patriots
Starters: Wes Welker, Brandon Lloyd, Aaron Hernandez

Outlook: You’d think the wide receiver sitting third on the Patriots’ depth chart would be owned in every format, but the team’s heavy usage of the tight end position really puts Gaffney fifth in line for targets. If one of Welker, Lloyd, or Hernandez (more of a wide receiver than a tight end) misses action, however, Gaffney would step into a good 40-plus snaps every week. Considering the team’s high-powered offensive attack, Gaffney would be worth WR3 consideration. He’s worth a flier in deeper leagues, especially if you invested an early pick on Wes Welker.

3. Emmanuel Sanders - Steelers
Starters: Mike Wallace, Antonio Brown

Outlook: Of all the depth chart situations we analyze today, this one might be the most relevant. Mike Wallace is currently in holdout mode and looking for a long-term commitment from the team. That should already have those of you picking Wallace early in drafts considering Sanders in the later rounds. Should Wallace sit out or Brown, at some point, suffer an injury, Sanders would immediately jump onto the WR3 radar. He’s certain to be pushed for reps by Jerricho Cotchery, but the younger Sanders offers plenty more upside and playmaking ability. Six targets would be his floor most weeks and he’d be in line for plenty of scoring opportunities with Ben Roethlisberger leading the offense.

4. Kendall Wright - Titans
Starters: Kenny Britt, Nate Washington

Outlook: If the Steelers wideout situation is the most relevant analysis we do today, the Titans are a close second. Britt is currently facing a potential suspension, which has overshadowed his recovery from knee surgery that could cost him the first few weeks of the season regardless. Britt has the upside to put up top-five wide receiver numbers, but, when taking ADP into account, you could make a case that he’s the riskiest pick in fantasy this year. If he or Washington misses action, Wright, a first-round pick in April, would step into a prominent offensive role. As mentioned earlier when discussing Jake Locker, the Titans were among the pass-heaviest teams of 2011 and the play-calling doesn’t figure to be significantly different going forward. If called upon to start, Wright is a borderline WR3 option.

5. Rueben Randle – Giants
Starters: Hakeem Nicks, Victor Cruz

Outlook: Another early-round pick in April, Randle is being groomed to take on Mario Manningham’s old role; one that allowed him to average near six targets-per-game one season ago. The rookie figures to get off to a slot start as he works past Domenik Hixon, Jerrel Jernigan, and Ramses Barden on the depth chart. Easily the most-talented of the four, it shouldn’t be long until Randle is in the game in three-wide sets, kicking Cruz to his comfort zone, the slot. Once he’s settled in as the No. 3, an injury to a starter immediately puts Randle in the WR3 discussion. Consider that, with Steve Smith missing a big chunk of the 2010 season, Manningham caught 60 balls for 944 yards and nine touchdowns. Randle is an excellent late-round pick and would be higher on this list if his No. 3 job was safer.

Honorable Mention: Alshon Jeffery (CHI), Leonard Hankerson (WAS), Jacoby Ford (OAK), Brandon LaFell (CAR), Andre Caldwell (DEN), Mohamed Sanu (CIN), Nate Burleson (DET), Steve Breaston (KC), Kevin Walter (HOU), David Nelson (BUF)

Tight End

1. Dennis Pitta – Ravens
Starter: Ed Dickson

Outlook: The same year the Patriots spent second and fourth round picks on Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez, respectively, the Ravens snagged Ed Dickson in the third and Dennis Pitta in the fourth. The Baltimore duo hasn’t been near as fantasy-relevant, but both have played a significant number of snaps, often capping each other’s fantasy upside. If one of the two were to go down, however, the sky is the limit. The two figure to share a good nine or 10 targets each week this season and a good chunk of those throws would go to one player if the other were to miss action. With Pitta suffering a hand injury earlier this offseason, Dickson is in line to start again this season, but either of these two would make for a back-end TE1 if the other is out.

2. Tony Scheffler – Lions
Starter: Brandon Pettigrew

Outlook: Because he’s been stuck as a part-timer behind Pettigrew the last two seasons, it’s easy to forget that Scheffler is still only 29-years-old and was a starter for Denver only two seasons ago. He’s a skilled pass-catching tight end and could easily take on a relatively full workload should Pettigrew miss time with an action. Pettigrew generally works near the line of scrimmage, but Scheffler is used more like a wide receiver, often running deeper routes. Will Heller would certainly help out as a blocker, but Scheffler would be in the game in passing situations (a common situation in Detroit) and would take on most of Pettigrew’s target load. If Pettigrew goes down, put your claim in for Scheffler.

3. Chris Cooley – Redskins
Starter: Fred Davis

Outlook: Now 30, due $3.8 million this season, and having missed 20 games over the past three years, it’s fair to say that Cooley’s roster spot is far from safe. For now, though, he’s the Redskins No. 2 tight end and in position for a massive workload should Davis go down with an injury. With Davis stealing the show in 2011, it’s easy to forget that Cooley scored 27 touchdowns during the four seasons spanning 2004-to-2007. He went on to catch 83 balls in 2008 and 77 in 2010. Cooley recently declared his knee 100-percent healthy and he’s one of the game’s better receiving tight ends. He’d be a must-add if Davis were to miss action.

4. Delanie Walker – 49ers
Starter: Vernon Davis

Outlook: Many draft pundits were locked in on the thought process that 49ers and ex-Stanford coach Jim Harbaugh would not pass on Coby Fleener when San Francisco was on the board late in the first round of April’s draft. Those pundits were forgetting about the team’s current No. 2 tight end, Delanie Walker, who, while not quite at Fleener’s level of upside, is a competent backup and strong pass-catcher. Harbaugh, of course, passed on Fleener, instead grabbing wide receiver A.J. Jenkins. Meanwhile, Walker, who scored three times on 19 receptions last season, sticks as Davis’ primary backup. The run-heavy 49ers like to run two-tight end sets and that doesn’t figure to change in 2012, meaning Walker will already be seeing quite a few snaps each week. If Davis were to go down with an injury, Walker is a slam dunk to work as the team’s every down tight end. He wouldn’t see Davis’ target numbers, but would see enough, especially in the redzone, to make him a borderline TE2.

5. Dwayne Allen – Colts
Starter: Coby Fleener

Outlook: The Colts’ rebuilt offense figures to struggle a bit in 2012, but they’re sure to be throwing the ball quite a bit. That is certain to help the fantasy production of rookie tight ends Dwayne Allen and Coby Fleener, both of who will be playing significant snaps right off the bat. Although both can catch the ball, Allen is a better blocker and figures to see more in-line duties than his counterpart. Fleener will be used in the slot quite often and will rack up a half dozen or so targets each week. If he were to go down, however, Allen would be asked to run more routes, opening the door for him to be one of Andrew Luck’s top pass-catchers. That would put him on the radar as a strong TE2.

Honorable Mention: Rob Housler (ARZ), Jordan Cameron (CLE), Orson Charles (CIN), Joel Dreessen (DEN), David Thomas (NO), John Carlson (MIN), Clay Harbor (PHI), D.J. Williams (GB), Dante Rosario (SD), Kellen Winslow (SEA), Julius Thomas (DEN), Gary Barnidge (CAR), Charles Clay (MIA), James Casey (HOU), Adrien Robinson (NYG), Visanthe Shiancoe (NE)

 

[HacheMan]

Mike Goodson a sneaky good pick

Most fantasy owners likely disregarded the potentially frightening news that Oakland Raiders running back Mike Goodson suffered a neck injury in practice Tuesday and was taken by stretcher to the hospital. Of course, we hope that Goodson is OK. He was injured on a head-to-head collision with linebacker Philip Wheeler, and according to recent updates things are looking positive.

<offer>This is good news not only for Goodson, but perhaps this will bring to light the reason why he matters in fantasy: The most optimistic among us will eagerly select Raiders running back Darren McFadden in the second round -- he's currently being taken in the third round of ESPN average live drafts -- but the fact is durability isn't even close to a strong point with the fellow known as Run-DMC, and the No. 2 guy in Oakland, health willing, is Goodson.</offer>
<offer></offer>
<offer>A season ago, McFadden was a fantasy superstar after a month, and then he suffered a foot injury and didn't suit up again after Week 7. Even for a guy with a checkered injury past, this was a tough one. Fantasy owners couldn't drop the guy because hey, he's a potential top-5 option and constantly seemed to be on the verge of coming back, but at the same time nobody seemed to know when he would return. Turns out he didn't return at all. I'm not surprised McFadden is healthy today, in early August. He'll probably be healthy in a month, too. The chances that he's healthy in November, however, are problematic. Health is a skill, too.


This is why Goodson landed in a good place after the March trade from the Carolina Panthers. The Raiders needed a backup with experience after Michael Bush bolted for the Chicago Bears, and while fantasy owners might presume Goodson is irrelevant since he didn't have a rushing attempt in 2011, look back to 2010 when, for a few weeks, he was certainly relevant. Goodson produced consecutive 100-yard rushing games in Weeks 9 and 10 then scored touchdowns in each of the three weeks after that. OK, so he wasn't a fantasy star, he was gone from our rosters quickly, and it was a crowded backfield in Carolina. But it's not the same situation in Oakland.


McFadden is a wonderful talent, but fantasy owners need to balance risk versus reward. I have him at No. 25 overall, one spot behind Adrian Peterson, because for the first time their situations are somewhat comparable. My take is each is worth the third-round pick if I've already secured a top running back I can rely on. Will either of these guys play all 16 games? Will either miss half the season, if not more? We don't really know. McFadden has averaged 4.8 yards per rush in 553 career rushing attempts, and he starred in 2010 over 13 games, with nearly 1,700 total yards and 10 touchdowns. He could be Arian Foster, or better, but let's be honest, last season's 614 rushing yards was the second-best total in his four years in the NFL.


Goodson certainly seems like the natural handcuff here, though young speedster Taiwan Jones is in the picture. While neither is as talented as Bush, the opportunity is the luring factor. Bush is a bigger running back than most, and he totaled nearly 1,400 total yards and scored eight touchdowns in 2011. I think he's being a bit overrated in drafts this season since Matt Forte is the clear starter, but in a touchdown-heavy format, go for it. Goodson is more of a power back than Jones, but unless a free agent such as Ryan Grant or Cedric Benson ends up in Oakland -- nothing has happened despite rumors of this for months -- this is what is backing up the brittle McFadden.


It should be noted that Goodson missed much of 2011 with a severe hamstring injury, and Jones is currently battling a hamstring problem, so it's not like either of them is a lock to flourish, but there just doesn't seem to be much else in camp. Fullback Marcel Reece can catch the football and, well, that's about it for fantasy value. Lonyae Miller is still in the picture. If Goodson's neck injury keeps him out of action for more than a week, one would assume the Raiders have to look to add depth, and that player could leapfrog over Goodson and Jones to a nice spot.

For now Goodson is going 175th in ESPN average live drafts, in the same area as fellow reserves Brandon Jacobs, Tim Hightower and Rashad Jennings. That makes perfect sense to me, but I'd move him up if I had chosen McFadden earlier. Remember, this is McFadden's fifth NFL season. We'd all love for him to play every week and do great things, but the more realistic assessment is that just like the past few seasons with Bush and Justin Fargas before him, someone else is going to see opportunity. Tuesday's injury notwithstanding, I still think Goodson is that guy.
</offer>

 

[HacheMan]

Loves and Hates for 2012

By Matthew Berry | ESPN.com

Can I play in a league with you?"

I hear that a lot. In fact, it's probably the question I get asked most after "Whom should I start?" and "Seriously? They put you on TV?"


There are a lot of variations on it.


Sometimes they are very nice.


Joe (Cleveland): Hey TMR, been reading your stuff for a couple years now, and I'm a big fan. My roommate and I are setting up our annual fantasy football league and we have an extra spot.


Sometimes they are cocky.


Rob (Texas): I would like to be in a football league or baseball league with you. I dominate every other league I'm in. I'm incredibly active and check my email 10 times a day. Let me know.


And sometimes they are less than kind.


Rob (Pennsylvania): (sic) you have no clue what you are talking about and i have no idea how you have that job id love to play in a fantasy league with you so you can learn from a true fantasy king.


I always say no.


From "industry" leagues with people at other fantasy websites to leagues for radio stations and advertisers and marketing or publicity people, from people in the comments section of my articles to people from high school I haven't spoken to in 20 years who contact me out of the blue to say "we talked about it and decided it'd be fun to have you in our league," from employees of companies that are in business with ESPN to people who follow me on Twitter or Facebook or random people who reach out through friends of friends, I get requests all the time.


I always say no.


I feel bad about it. I'm totally flattered that people want to play with me, even though I know the main reasons I get invited are because (1) I work for ESPN, (2) they think if they can beat the "ESPN guy" it means something, or (3) after reading me, people are more convinced than ever that "I can definitely crush that idiot." Whatever the reason or tone, still the invites come, many times and from all over.


I always say no.

It's not that I'm not appreciative or interested. I am. It's not that I don't love fantasy football. I do. It's just that I'm already in too many leagues as is. And it's not just double-digit fantasy football leagues. It's Pick 'Em leagues, Eliminator contests, salary-cap leagues like Gridiron Challenge, leagues where you draft NFL teams and compete based on wins (and, in one case, losses.) Many, many different types of fantasy football and football-related leagues. At a certain point, it becomes diminishing returns, and then, instead of disappointing someone by not playing, I disappoint them by being no fun at all to play with as I wind up not being as active or engaged in their league as they were expecting when they bothered to ask me.


So I always say no.


Until about this time last year. Once again, the question was asked.


"Can I play in a league with you?"


And this time, I was surprised. It was my 13-year-old stepson and, for the first time, he was showing an interest in what I do for a living.


If you remember, in this article last preseason, I told you about how I got married to a wonderful woman who happened to come with three boys. We also had twin daughters last year. It's chaos at home. Good, happy chaos, but chaos nonetheless.


Anyway, after we got married, everything sort of hit me at once. I went from seeing the kids a few times a week when their mother and I were dating to, now, living with them. I can barely take care of myself. And, other than my dog, I've never really been responsible for any other living being, and now, here I was, in the same house as three boys aged 7, 11 and 13.


It's a huge transition. And not just for me. Think about it from a kid's point of view. They've been through a lot in their young lives, and now, despite spending a lot of time with me before the wedding and all of us getting along, it's still a big adjustment to living in a new house with your mom and her new husband, right?


So we all started living together and I tried to walk a fine line. I wanted to be there for them but also didn't want to come on too strong. Show them I cared but not that I was trying to replace anyone. The big decisions were their parents' call, but I could be a sounding board, an advocate or, when necessary, a disciplinarian, as well. I tried to be positive and involved but not too pushy.


And although all three boys are sports fans and knew what I do, even occasionally watching "Fantasy Football Now" -- Sundays at 11 a.m. ET on ESPN2; tune in for the preseason show all August long! -- none of them had ever shown a real interest in what I did. Until now.


"I want to play in a league with you."
"You do, huh?"
"Yeah. Actually, I want to do a team with you. Can we? Is it too late?"


Turns out, I almost always say no.


"No, it's not too late. We'll start a league."


And start a league we did. My wife and I are friends with the parents of all the kids' close friends. So I decided we should do an extended family league. It'd be an eight-team league; we'd invite parents to co-own with their kids and do it up. I would co-own with the 13-year-old.


The next day, we had just finished watching the 11-year-old's youth football game. As we were walking out, we ran into his father and his father's longtime girlfriend. And a thought occurred to me.


"Hey, uh, don't know if you'd be interested, but I think we're gonna do a little fantasy football league with all the kids. You wanna play? You could co-own a team with [the 11-year-old]."


He looked surprised by the invitation. We had always had a very cordial relationship, but it's not as if we ever socialized or anything. And this whole thing had to be an adjustment for him, as well; now there's some new guy living with his kids? He's always been respectful of me and I of him, but it's still weird, you know? Awkward. Divorce is never easy on anyone, and new partners entering the equation certainly don't make anything simpler.


But he looked at me and said "Sure. Sounds fun."


And that weekend, we all gathered at a friend's house. The kids and their friends, their parents, my wife and I … and her ex-husband and his girlfriend.
I was the only one who had ever played fantasy football before, so I printed out a bunch of ESPN cheat sheets and roster forms, explained the rules, keeping it super simple, and suggested that, if they were unsure, they should just go down the list and pick the next available guy. They could ask me anything they wanted during the draft; I'd help everyone equally and the 13-year-old would draft for us.


I have to tell you, doing a draft with a bunch of 11- and 13-year-olds who know nothing about fantasy is hilarious.


The kids grew up in Connecticut, so they've mostly watched just the local teams. That led to this exchange in the second round.

Kid 1: I'll take Mark Sanchez.
Kid 2: Aw, man! I wanted him. He's so good.
Kid 1: I know. I can't believe he didn't go in the first!


Totally genuine. The kids would help each other out: "You need a running back? Oh look, no one took Michael Turner yet. You should take him." "Oh, thanks!"


It was, like, the 12th round.


Kickers went in the third. Kids took back-to-back quarterbacks in the first two rounds. I just smiled. A lot. It was great.


But best of all, it was normal. We were in a big circle, the adults with beers, the kids with cheat sheets trying to figure out what tight end to pick now that Kevin Boss was off the board in the fourth. And most importantly, the kids saw their mom and dad and their parents' current significant others all hanging out, having fun. It wasn't weird or awkward.


I can't exactly describe it. It's like there was this collective sigh of relief. Everything had always been pleasant and cordial, but now it was more than that. All of our mutual friends now realized it would be fine to have the four of us at the same party or out to dinner. The kids realized they didn't have to tiptoe around anything. Said one child of divorce to our kids after the draft; "I wish my mom and dad got along like that."


And the good feelings from the draft continued through the season. If their dad and I are at one of the kid's Little League games or whatever, we'll now sit next to each other. They've come over for drinks or parties. He'll text me pictures or video of the kids at a game I can't make, and I'll do the same for him. As opposed to having two different households, we're all raising these kids together. It's terrific.


During the season, whether it was picking up free agents, reviewing trade offers, setting our lineup or going over the matchup scores the next day, my stepson and I always had something to talk about and look forward to. Something for us to do together.


Just like at the draft, being in a league with a bunch of young kids who had never played before was fantastic. Kids at that age are so blunt and honest.


Kid 1: Dude, your team sucks.
Kid 2: I know. (hangs head)



No attempt at a comeback. Just an acknowledgement that his brother was right.


Matthew Stafford and Calvin Johnson's crazy Week 17 ended up winning it all for my stepson and me, and watching that comeback together was a great moment. And everyone is already excited for Year 2, to come back and try to take down the champs. My wife and our (now) 8-year-old have already claimed one of the expansion teams.


I always say no. But thank goodness this one time I said yes. What was a silly little eight-team league turned out to be the most important one I participated in last season. When you say yes, you never know what will be a throwaway league and which one will help transform a group of people into a family.


Which brings us, meandering slowly, to this year's edition of Love/Hate. For the many of you for whom this is old hat and for the new kids in class, allow me to explain the premise, as I am switching it up a bit this year.



The truth behind Love/Hate





Let's start with this: I hate the terms "sleeper" and "bust." I believe there are no such things. Or rather, that there are such things, but whether a player can be a "sleeper" or a "bust" is entirely dependent on what it costs to acquire said player.

Take Matt Ryan last year. Some people labeled him a sleeper, with dreams of Julio Jones opening up the offense. The Falcons would be the "Greatest Show on Turf, Part 2" -- none other than Roddy White proclaimed that on our Fantasy Focus 06010 podcast last season.


I actually had Matt Ryan on the Hate list last year in this very column, in which I wrote that, although Ryan was going in the seventh round, I would not take him until the 10th. These are direct quotes from my piece last year; "A very good real-life quarterback, there's no reason he should be going two rounds ahead of guys like Eli Manning. … Solid and safe? Very much so. Big upside? Not so much. If you don't get one of the big seven, you can get similar stats much later."


So I had him as a "bust" based on the seventh-round average draft position. So what happened? Was Ryan a sleeper? Or a bust?


And I'd argue … both. It all depends where you got him. If you drafted him in the seventh and bypassed Eli Manning, who went, on average, in the ninth, then yes, he was a bust for you. Eli threw for almost 5,000 yards and was the sixth-best fantasy quarterback.


But if you waited on quarterback and you got Ryan late (he was going as late as the 12th round in many drafts), then he was a sleeper for you. Ryan had another very solid, if unspectacular, season, finishing as the eighth-best fantasy quarterback, with more points than some quarterbacks drafted much higher than him, notably Philip Rivers and (ahem) Michael Vick.


Not to get all businessy on you (or all non-Englishy), but a common and basic business term that gets bandied about in fantasy is "return on investment," or ROI. Let's say you were a company that made two products, but had to downsize to making just one. If one product sells for $1.05 and the other sells for 50 cents and you're selling as many of the first as you are of the second, you'd think you'd want to keep producing the $1.05 product, right? But if it costs $1.00 to produce the $1.05 item and just 10 cents to make the 50-cent one, well, now you're changing your tune.


Fantasy is the same way. Every player has value. It's simply about what it costs to get him. And this column is all about players who, based on ESPN.com draft results for standard 10-team leagues, are costing too much (or not enough) to acquire.


So please use this column as intended. It is not a sleepers and busts column. Rather, it's a market inefficiency column. With puns.

It's a market, as I view it, and a market you will understand in greater detail after you read my Draft Day Manifesto. If you don't have the time, do me a favor and just click on it. I really only care about your clicks. In return, here's the super-abridged "CliffsNotes" version: You want an elite quarterback and, to a lesser extent, an elite tight end. Wide receiver is crazy deep, so you can wait on them, running back is filled with question marks, so load up on them in the middle rounds, hoping one or two of them pop. And I'm sorry about Vick, but I bought the Big Salad, OK?


Back to this year's Love/Hate. Not only is it not a sleeper and bust list, it's also not a comprehensive list of players I really like or don't like. For example, I absolutely love Matthew Stafford (who appeared on this list last year) to repeat his stellar performance. However, I have him ranked as a second-round pick and he's going in the second. Right where I think he should be. So he doesn't make the list this year.


If you want a comprehensive list of whom I value and where, please check out my top 200 rankings, which will be updated throughout the preseason.
The reason for all this preamble is because of the way I am formatting the column this year. I did this for the preseason baseball Love/Hate, and it worked well, so I'm doing the same format here. Based on the ESPN.com live draft results as of the weekend of Aug. 4, I'm going to go round by round and pick one or two players who are going a little too late (the "loves") or are going a little too early (the "hates") for my taste.

Hopefully, the round designations will stop questions like "You hate Frank Gore and love Jacquizz Rodgers, which one should I draft?" But I'm not holding my breath. Use your brain. It's by round. With each player, I tell you the round he is going in and the round when I would take him (based on my rankings), but use your common sense. If a guy is going in the 12th and I say he's an eighth-round guy for me, but you feel as though he'll last until the 10th or 11th in your draft, take him then. It's just that I feel that player is going to return an eighth-round value. The less you invest in terms of your pick, the better the return on the investment.


Addressing the last (fingers crossed) of the questions I get every year, people wonder why there are so many more loves than hate. That's just the nature of the beast. It doesn't do you any good to say I hate Blaine Gabbert. His value and rank already reflect that he is not highly thought of. I'm still going round by round, and, in a standard ESPN league, there are 16 rounds, so you're getting at least 16 hates. But be aware that, in general, I am from the "no such thing as a bad pick after Round 12" school of thought. So you're really choosing "hate" only from the guys who are considered at a high enough level to be drafted with big expectations, which pretty much eliminates most guys in the lower rounds.


Finally, please remember this is being written in the first weekend in August. No preseason games have been played; camps haven't been open that long; much can and will change in the next month. Last year, in this column, I wrote about Knowshon Moreno as a "love," highlighting the fact that John Fox loves to run and it seemed as if Moreno had no competition for the job. Two weeks after that column, I wrote a preseason "100 Facts" column that highlighted that Willis McGahee was going in the 12th round and how Fox loved to run in the red zone. I then wrote a "10 Lists of 10" column that listed McGahee as one of my Top 10 positive "flag guys" I wanted to be judged on. And then, in my "You Heard Me" bold prediction column last year, my bold prediction for the Broncos was "1,000 yards and double-digit touchdowns for Willis McGahee." As training camp unfolded, I changed my tune on Moreno and was pumping McGahee as a nice draft value in Denver, a perfect fit for my "unsexy running backs in the middle rounds" theory.

I bring this up not to brag about McGahee (or excuse Moreno) -- I will get many calls right and wrong along the way -- but rather to point out that fantasy value changes all the time. Roles and opportunities, information about players and schemes, draft trends, and heath and results in the preseason all play a factor, and, if you refuse to keep your mind open and are unwilling to change an opinion on a player once you get new info, that's a quick way to lose. And this next month is the most crucial.


Follow me on Twitter. Become my friend on Facebook . Listen to the podcast, watch Fantasy Football Now on Sundays, and read all the articles and ranking updates until your draft, then make the decision. Or, if you choose to ignore that, don't blame me for it. Remember, only a poor craftsman blames his tool. That's all I am, your tool. Wait, that came out wrong. Which is odd, given that I've used that joke three years in a row now. Huh. Well, no time to dwell. Let's get it on.








Players I Love this season




Aaron Rodgers, QB, Packers and Tom Brady, QB, Patriots (going in 1st round, I would take with top two picks): Obviously, I'm not out on any limb with these two picks, but I put them here for a few reasons. One, it's the first round, so there's no round I can go higher on them, but I am as high on them as can possibly be, with Rodgers and Brady as my top two players overall. But also because their ADPs are at No. 2 and No. 5, respectively, and I've seen Rodgers go as low as fourth and Brady drop into the second round.


I've already written a ton about why an elite QB is crucial this year, but the biggest reason I have them at 1 and 2 overall is the premise that you can't win your league in the first round, but you can lose it. I love Ray Rice and Arian Foster, but you can't tell me there isn't more inherent risk with a running back than there is with a quarterback. Three of the first four running backs taken last year were Adrian Peterson, Jamaal Charles and Chris Johnson. How'd that work out for you? More injury risk, more risk of poor performance. Rodgers and Brady are as close to money in the bank as there is in fantasy. That safety is worth something.


Matt Forte, RB, Bears (going in 2nd, I would take in 1st): "Michael Bush! Goal line! Injury!" It's not hard to spot a Forte hater. They're insane. And they don't speak in complete sentences. First, about the injury. He played in the Pro Bowl last year, OK? Prior to that, Forte had not missed a game in his career, playing in 62 consecutive games, including the playoffs. Not worried about the injury. As for Michael Bush, last year Matt Forte averaged 14.2 fantasy points per game (not counting the Chiefs game he left very early). For comparison, Adrian Peterson averaged 15.0 points per game in the 12 games he played. And while Forte was averaging those 14.2 points a game, do you know how many goal-line touchdowns he had? Zero.


In fact, he had only three rushing touchdowns all of last season. That's not his game. It's not why you draft him. Obviously, you hope the touchdowns will come, but you can' t be worried about Michael Bush vulturing Forte's goal-line carries because he doesn't have any to vulture. You are drafting Forte because he will be an integral part of an offense that led the NFL in offensive touches over the first eight games last year and that wants to run even more under Mike Tice than it did under Mike Martz. Forte is a three-down back who is a great pass-catcher -- only Darren Sproles had more targets over the first eight games last year -- and he is safe and consistent and has never had fewer than 1,400 total yards in a season. Never.

Jimmy Graham, TE, Saints (going in 3rd, would take in 2nd): And not only do I have him as a second-rounder, I have him as my No. 1 tight end, ahead of Rob Gronkowski, which I don't think is the norm. I still think Gronk will be a stud this year, but there are more mouths to feed in New England (they added Brandon Lloyd) and fewer in New Orleans (Robert Meachem is gone) this season. Also, Graham had 25 more targets than Gronk last season. The argument for Gronk over Graham is the touchdowns, and they are just too tough to predict.


Jimmy Graham is safer to me because of how involved he is in the Saints' offense: Forget tight ends, Graham was fifth in targets (149) among all players last season, tied for second in red zone targets, third in total receptions and seventh in receiving yards.


And lest you think that last year was a fluke, or that I won't drop a word like "lest" on you, consider this: Since 2008, no quarterback has thrown more balls and completed more passes to a tight end than … Drew Brees.


Jamaal Charles, RB, Chiefs (3rd, 2nd): "Injury! Peyton Hillis! Didn't you hear me on Michael Bush!" Yes, the Charles haters get half-price membership and a free lube job when joining the Matt Forte Haters Club at the same time. Look, until we see Charles on the field, we won't know if he's recovered all of his burst and elusiveness after ACL surgery. So I am reserving my right to bail on this after a few preseason games, OK? But as of right now, my thinking is this: After the first few guys, you start getting into serious question marks.



Darren McFadden's health. Maurice Jones-Drew's ongoing holdout (as of this writing). Will Marshawn Lynch get suspended? What about DeMarco Murray and his health? And we have a very small body of work on which to judge him. Is Trent Richardson good enough to overcome everything else that is wrong with the Browns? So as long as we are into the "question mark running back territory," I'd rather take the guy who had his injury almost a year ago, who is young enough to recover fully (just 25) and claims to "have his mojo" back. Remember Charles' killer 2010 season? He averaged fewer than 15 carries a game. Volume is not his game. Frankly, I am happy that Peyton Hillis is there and, as you'll see, I feel both backs will have good years. For you aspiring writers out there, that is called "foreshadowing." And not to show off all my writing tricks, but this next one is called "a bad transition." Next player!


Michael Vick, QB, Eagles (4th, end of 2nd): The logic from last year remains the same, the price is just cheaper this year. If he stays healthy, he has the ability, the weapons around him and the offensive scheme to put up the greatest fantasy season ever. Period. Tons of upside, obvious downside as well. Clearly, I am a counselor, campfire song leader and organizer of the overnight canoe trip at Camp Rewardisworththerisk. One of the few times I go away from my "safe early, upside later" mantra. His upside is that great. If you don't agree with me, don't draft him. But the year after I'm all-in on him? There's no way he's not going off.


Steven Jackson, RB, Rams (4th, 3rd): Friend-of-the-podcast Steven Jackson is the main guy on a team that will run the ball a lot. He has missed just two games the past three seasons, and as bad as the Rams were, he was still tied as the 10th-best fantasy running back last year. In a year with so many question marks, Jackson is a solid No. 2 running back to grab in the third, as there will still be lots of good wideouts left in the fourth. And the fifth. And the sixth.


Brandon Marshall, WR, Bears (4th, 3rd): Make no mistake, the off-the-field issues are a concern, but Marshall has acknowledged in interviews the great opportunity he has in Chicago, and I expect a more mature Marshall. Being reunited with Jay Cutler and quarterbacks coach Jeremy Bates (who was with both guys in Denver when Cutler and Marshall connected on back-to-back 100-catch seasons) is key. Those years were Marshall's best two years as a pro, leading the NFL in targets. Since 2007, Marshall has never had fewer than 1,000 yards and never finished lower than 13th among fantasy wide receivers, and he has had to play with nine different quarterbacks. Back with Bates and Cutler, he's safe, with upside for more.


Julio Jones, WR, Falcons (4th, 3rd): Someday, in the near future, we will all gather 'round and chortle heartily at the idea that you could once get Julio Jones in the fourth round. In the near present, we will high-five the TMR for winning a bet that he couldn't find a natural way to get the phrase "chortle heartily" into a column.

Brandon Lloyd, WR, Patriots: (6th, late 3rd/early 4th): There are three schools of thought regarding Mr. Brandon Lloyd. The more conservative approach (and one drafters seem to be taking) is that there are only so many targets to go around in New England and, while he'll have some good games, he'll also have some where he'll disappear, and for that, he's worth no more than being a low-end No. 2 , the 17th wideout off the board at the top of Round 6. There's another school of thought that stipulates that now that he's been reunited with Josh McDaniels and combined with Tom Brady, the sky is the limit. And, of course, there's a school of thought among bitter Redskins fans who can't believe this is the same guy who stunk in Washington (23 games, zero touchdowns). I am a member of the latter two groups. But let's focus on the positive. Big year coming for Brandon Lloyd.


So what's fair to expect from a Josh McDaniels deep threat? In the 23 games that Lloyd has played for McDaniels, he has been targeted 236 targets, or 10.2 a game, 163 in a 16-game season. In 2007, the last time Josh McDaniels was the offensive coordinator for Tom Brady, Randy Moss had 23 touchdowns and over 1,400 yards. And he was targeted 159 times. Hmm. We may be onto something.


Now, both with the '07 Patriots and when he had Lloyd in Denver and St. Louis, McDaniels did not have the array of weapons to utilize that he has this season with Gronkowski, Aaron Hernandez, Wes Welker and a pretty decent pass-catching trio of running backs hanging around. That's why our projection for Lloyd is a very reasonable 103 targets. But that's just a projection. What if Welker or one of the tight ends gets injured? What if Bill Belichick suddenly decides he doesn't want his running backs catching balls? A lot can happen in a 16-game season, and for Lloyd, 160 targets isn't unattainable, it's merely his ceiling; unlikely is not impossible.



But here's the thing. Lloyd doesn't need 160 targets to have a great season. Remember, he was the No. 1 wide receiver in fantasy in 2010 with Kyle Orton and Tim Tebow throwing passes to him. My 100 Facts You Need to Know column had some good Lloyd stats (among them: most deep targets in the NFL the last two years. Yes, more than Calvin Johnson), but here's one stat I didn't include, courtesy of John Parolin from ESPN Stats & Information: We know that Lloyd lines up wide or "outside the numbers" almost exclusively. Well, over the last two seasons, Lloyd has been underthrown on throws outside the numbers 27 times, more than any other receiver in football. In fact, Lloyd's quarterbacks over that time frame have completed just 48 percent of their total passes to Lloyd outside the numbers. Meanwhile, Tom Brady, completed 64.2 percent of those throws the past three seasons.


At worst, Lloyd is the deep threat on one of the best offenses in football, whose playcaller loves and trusts him. At best? He's Randy Moss, circa 2007. Anywhere in between is a fine return for the sixth round, or even earlier to make sure you get him, as I'll be doing in my drafts.


Percy Harvin, WR, Vikings (6th, 4th): Call me nutty, but you know what I like? Crazy-fast wideouts who get to have the ball in their hands a lot. Once Christian Ponder took over in Week 7, Harvin lead all wide receivers in offensive touches, with 100. Second-most was Wes Welker & with 74! Harvin finished the year as the eighth-best fantasy wide receiver and yet is going outside the top 20, well behind the other big "breakout" guys from last season, Victor Cruz and Jordy Nelson.


BenJarvus Green-Ellis, RB, Bengals (6th, 5th): I did eight of my 100 Facts on Green-Ellis so I'll merely say this: BenJarvus Green-Ellis is the poster boy this year for the "unsexy running back you can get in the middle rounds that no one will go 'oooh, great pick' but will help you win your league." Among the guys in this column last year that I labeled that way were Marshawn Lynch, Fred Jackson and Matt Forte. Green-Ellis will get the majority of carries on a team that likes to run, and he's never gotten the chance to get all the work. Enjoy the good production for a low cost, and enjoy the fact that I made it through this without some terrible joke about how Cincy needs a law firm.


Philip Rivers, QB, Chargers (6th, 5th): We have two sets of data to use when evaluating Rivers. The first 11 games of 2011, when he was terrible, or the final five games of last season plus, you know, every other season in his career. As the smart kids over at numberFire tell me, even off his bad year, "Rivers still finished No. 7 in the league in total efficiency added, adding 130 points to the Chargers' offense above what a league-average offense would have scored if put in similar situations. In fact, Rivers is the only quarterback to add at least 100 points above expectation in each of the past five years." I'm not convinced the loss of Vincent Jackson is a big deal. Rivers' best season was 2010 (4,710 yards, 30 TDs) and Jackson played all of five games. Was Rivers hiding an injury last year? Was he just under more pressure from an offensive line beset by injuries? Remember, the Chargers had to sign Jared Gaither off the street and he was starting a few days later. I don't know. I do know that over the final five games, Rivers averaged 17.8 points and 282 yards a game and had 11 touchdowns and three interceptions. I'm back in.


Demaryius Thomas and Eric Decker, WR, Broncos (7th, 6th): You know how, after years of thinking about it, you finally did it and were like "Whoa! That's even better than I ever imagined!" I can only assume that's what Thomas and Decker feel like after going from Kyle Orton and Tim Tebow to Peyton Manning. Don't be surprised to look over at the Broncos' sideline after the first game and see these guys smoking a cigarette.


Antonio Brown, WR, Steelers (7th, 5th): Starting with his breakout game in Week 7, he was the better fantasy wide receiver than Mike Wallace the rest of the way. Period. More targets, more receptions, more yards and more fantasy points per game (9.8 compared to 8.0). There's a reason Brown got paid this offseason, you know? When a quarterback is on third down, trying to move the chains, he looks to his safety blanket, right? Well, last year only Roddy White had more third-down catches for a first down than Brown.


Doug Martin, RB, Buccaneers (8th, 5th): Excuse me, can you move over? And you, yes you, if you'll just turn to your right. And if you, sir -- no, not you, him, yes, that guy -- sir, if you can squeeze two steps to your left. Great. There you go. See? Still room on the bandwagon. Among the quotes from Greg Schiano about Doug Martin in his press conference about Martin: "He's a three-down back"; "He's good in pass protection"; "Yes, I do see some Ray Rice in him"; and "I love this kid." Been taking the first-team reps in practice, and I don't think there's any way he lasts until the eighth round as preseason progresses.


Isaac Redman, RB, Steelers (8th, 7th): Running backs coach Kirby Wilson told the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review that Redman was going to be the third-down back this year as well. I'm sorry. Did you say I can get a good three-down back on a team that will run … in the seventh round? OK, I'm listening. Who knows when or even if Rashard Mendenhall comes back and how effective he'll be when/if he does. Meanwhile the wacky kids at numberFire tell me this: "Last year, out of running backs with at least 100 carries, Redman ranked as the No. 11 most-efficient (whether the team performed above or below league-average standard) running back and had a success rate over 39 percent; No. 6 in the league in that category. Pittsburgh was right in the middle of the league last year in pass-to-run ratio at 1.34, so expect a heavy reliance on Redman in the early going."


Torrey Smith, WR, Ravens (9th, 8th): Last year, only four teams attempted more passes of 21-plus yards than the Ravens, but most of them didn't go for completions. But you keep throwing deep, and in Smith's second year, good things are going to happen. He's fast, son. Country fast. If you're asking me, "Who could be this year's Jordy Nelson?" -- and, since I'm writing your dialogue, that's exactly what you are saying -- Torrey Smith is my vote. What's that you say? I'm handsome and smart and you love me? Stop, please, you're embarrassing me.

Robert Griffin III, QB, Redskins (8th, 8th): They are going to pass a lot and his potential rushing and & whatever. I am not rational when it comes to Robert Griffin the Third. I am a teenaged girl and he is my Justin Bieber. #ILOVEYOURG3.


Peyton Hillis, RB, Chiefs (10th, 7th): The hate's gone too far. Even a 100 percent healthy Charles isn't carrying it more than 15 times a game. Hillis will get goal-line carries, is a good pass-catcher in his own right and will definitely get some between-the-tackles work. Last year, new Chiefs offensive coordinator Brian Daboll was calling plays in Miami, where the Dolphins had the sixth-most rushing attempts in the NFL. Remember, in 2010, when Charles was setting the fantasy world on fire, Thomas Jones had over 1,000 total yards and six touchdowns on 259 touches for the Chiefs. Oh, and speaking of 2010, that was Peyton Hillis' breakout year with Cleveland. Where his offensive coordinator was … Brian Daboll.


Denarius Moore, WR, OAK: (10th, 8th): See Palmer, Carson, 15th round.


Donald Brown, RB, Colts (10th, 8th): Is he a great football player? Not really. Are his totals skewed by one 80-yard run against the Titans in Week 15? A little, yeah. But, per FootballOutsiders.com, Brown averaged 4.86 ypc from two-tight-end sets last year, which is similar to what Andrew Luck ran in college, and you'll see a lot of that this year, as well. Brown also doesn't have a ton of competition for the job. I expect Chuck Pagano to want a more conservative, between-the-tackles, control-the-clock type offense than we're used to seeing in Indy, given Luck's inexperience and the so-so talent around him. Brown will be a good flex/bye week fill-in guy, and to get a starting running back in the eighth is pretty solid.


Fred Davis, TE, Redskins (11th, 9th): A word about Washington's offense, from our team at Scouts Inc.: "Shanahan's rollout passing game … features waggles and bootlegs off play-action and that leaves [Griffin] with a lot of half-field reads, which should really help his early production and they will throw in multiple two-tight end sets." Last year, through the first 12 games (before his suspension), Fred Davis had 88 targets, sixth-most in the NFL and just five fewer than second place. Over that same time frame, Rob Gronkowski had … 90 targets.


This offense is designed for both RG3, Davis and his impressive yards-after-catch total; only Gronk and Jimmy Graham had more than Davis' 363 yards after the catch through 12 games last season. This means a lot of rollout plays to Davis and then letting him do the work. If you don't get one of the big studs, reach a round or two to make sure you get Fred Davis.



Reggie Wayne, WR, Colts (11th, 9th): Currently going as the 37th wide receiver. Come on. He's not dead, he's just in Indy. There IS a difference, you know.


Jacob Tamme, TE, Broncos (12th, 11th): In case you waited on tight end and the guy right before you read everything I wrote about Davis, console yourself with Jacob Tamme and this thought: Remember my Drew Brees stat above about how he has the most pass attempts and completions to a tight end since 2008? Well, guess whose quarterback is second, despite missing an entire season?


Darrius Heyward-Bey, WR, Raiders (13th, 9th): See Moore, Denarius.

LeGarrette Blount, RB, Bucs (13th, 12th): Because there's a chance I am as wrong about Doug Martin as I was about Blount last season.

Jared Cook, TE, Titans (14th, 11th): A physical freak who is both big and fast, he could easily be this year's Jimmy Graham/Rob Gronkowski. He could also do nothing, like last season, when he was also on my Love list. As FootballOutsiders.com points out, he was targeted more than seven times in seven different games last season. And three or fewer in another seven. If I wanted a huge-upside tight end after the top 10 were gone, he'd be the guy I grab. Which is why I list him here. His upside is very much worth an 11th- or 12th-round pick. But I'm also going to give this caveat: I wouldn't want to go into the season with only him as my tight end.


Brent Celek, TE, Eagles (14th, 11th): This is crazy low. Is he amazing? No. Nor does he have the upside of some others, but he's also a bit safer. We know he's been a stud before, and he seemed to get back to that toward the end of last year. Over the second half of the season, he was top-10 in the NFL among tight ends in targets, receptions, yardage (fourth!) and touchdowns. Nowhere to go but up for Philly's offense this year.


Ryan Williams, RB, Cardinals (15th, 8th): Tore his right patellar tendon last year. Still healthier than Beanie Wells.


Carson Palmer, QB, Raiders (15th, 13th): From Nov. 6, which was the first game that Palmer started for the Raiders last season, he was top-10 in the NFL in passing attempts, completions, completion percentage, yards and yards per attempt. In fact, he was first in pass plays of more than 25 yards. And 11th in touchdowns. New offensive coordinator Gregg Knapp loves short passes and crossing routes and, luckily, Palmer has two burners in Moore and Heyward-Bey, along with a hopefully healthy Darren McFadden. Palmer could pad those yardage totals without throwing as many of those interception-making deep passes that he loves.


Randall Cobb, WR, Packers (16th, 12th): The best yards-after-catch average of any Packers wideout last year, he's initially going to be tough to count on week in, week out. But a young burner with talent and Aaron Rodgers throwing to him? Rather take a late gamble on a guy like him, who could easily blow up, than a "safer" guy like Nate Burleson, who is what he is at this point. In the late rounds, you want upside. And Randall Cobb has it by the bushelful. Do they still sell bushels? They do, right? At least in Green Bay? Go look that up while I get to the next guy. Let me know. Thanks.


Jacquizz Rodgers, RB, Falcons (undrafted, 12th): We know some backup running backs will pop at some point this year. So if we're placing bets, gimme the guy behind Michael Turner.


Vincent Brown, WR, Chargers (undrafted, 14th): Every time I've seen this guy, I like what I see. I have the opposite reaction to Malcolm Floyd and Robert Meachem.


Kyle Rudolph, TE, Vikings (undrafted, 14th): You can't teach 6-foot-6.



A love so deep …




So, standard ESPN leagues draft only 160 players (10 teams, 16 roster slots) and 20 of those are defenses and kickers. So you're really dealing with 140 players who can be drafted. Now, obviously, I know some people play in deeper leagues; this list is for you. Here are some deeper guys who are not being drafted in ESPN standard leagues but who I have inside my personal top 140. I've divided them up into sections, since toward the end of your draft you're probably looking for "one more wideout" or "a backup tight end" or "that last piece of pizza or the leftover ribs?"

Quarterbacks:


Ryan Fitzpatrick, Bills: Was among the hottest things going, averaging 248 passing yards and two touchdowns a game for the first seven weeks. Then he hurt his ribs. The ribs are better. (That is also the answer to the pizza question).


Matt Cassell, Chiefs: Nice weapons, good dump-off options, and Brian Daboll is a really good coordinator.


Running backs:


It's all about the backup, of course; you're hoping for the starter to put on a poor performance or to get injured (just slightly, don't really wanna root for injury, but hey, it's the NFL -- it happens). See my ranks for specific order, but here are the backups with the best upside in terms of who is in front of them, and who I believe would have success if given the carries.


Rashad Jennings, Jaguars: how is no one drafting MJD's backup? MJD could easily hold out into the season.


Mike Goodson (and Taiwan Jones to an extent), Raiders: Darren McFadden, but I can't "like" him to good health.


Bilal Powell, Jets: Contrary to popular belief, Tim Tebow is not the Jets' third-down back.


Phillip Tanner, Cowboys: If something happens to DeMarco Murray, I believe Tanner, and not Felix Jones, would be the guy.

Tim Hightower, Redskins: Currently running with the first team in Washington but being drafted behind Roy Helu and Evan Royster.


Wide Receivers:


Danny Amendola, Rams: Was a sleeper last year, too. Doubling down.


Greg Little, Browns: A better PPR guy than for standard scoring; at some point the Browns have to throw it. Little was top-20 in the NFL in targets last year.


Kendall Wright, Titans: Hearing great things, and you know Kenny Britt-le will provide opportunity. (I warned you there'd be puns.)


Leonard Hankerson, Redskins: So sue me. I'm an optimistic Redskins fan. It only happens once every decade. Liked what I saw in limited time and they will be throwing.


Steve Smith, Rams: Hearing really good things about "the other Steve Smith."


The Baldwin Brothers: Doug in Seattle, Jon in KC and Alec on planes. All ready to show some growth this year.
Austin Collie, Colts: See Wayne, Reggie.


Tight End:


Coby Fleener, TE, Colts: Luck's security blanket. And has been for a while now.

Players I Hate this season

Maurice Jones-Drew, RB, Jaguars (being drafted in 1st, I would draft in 2nd): You wanna talk about something I hate? I hate putting MJD on this list. A great guy, a great promoter of fantasy and obviously a great running back. But he's holding out. We saw what happened to Chris Johnson last year. Has any player ever come back from a holdout and had a better year than the previous? I don't think so. Even if you ignore the usage last year (386 offensive touches, most in the NFL), the new offense MJD has to learn and the fact that defenses are likely to focus on stopping him and make Blaine Gabbert beat them (hehehe -- dammit, I almost got through that without laughing and everything), you're still left with the fact that Maurice is a proud guy (rightfully so) and may very well hold out for a long time. You can't take that risk in the first round.


Larry Fitzgerald, WR, Cardinals (1st, 2nd): It's not that I hate Larry. He's awesome. No matter who is throwing to him. I have him at 17 overall, my No. 2 wide receiver this year. I just have a tough time taking any wideout (even Megatron, whom I have at 10) in the first round given how deep wideout is. Seriously. Jeremy Maclin and Steve Johnson are going in the seventh round and outside the top 20 of wide receivers. Seventh round. Maclin and Johnson. And Antonio Brown, whom I love. Any one of them could end up as a top-10 guy. Crazy. Deep.


Andre Johnson, WR, Texans (2nd, late 4th/early 5th): This one is not just about depth at the position; 12 missed games the past two years, he has never had double-digit touchdowns in a season, and the Texans ran 52.2 percent of the time in '11, 2nd-most in the NFL.


Mike Wallace, WR, Steelers (3rd, 5th): I promise, I'll get off wideouts here in a second, but again, if you're gonna use a third-round pick on a wide receiver, how about getting one who isn't holding out and wasn't even the best wide receiver on his team over the second half of last season?


Eli Manning, QB, Giants (3rd/4th, take in 5th): Great year for Eli. Really great year. Threw for almost 5,000 yards, the sixth-most in NFL history. And he still wasn't a top-five fantasy quarterback. He's thrown more than 30 touchdowns once in an eight-year career. And with Mario Manningham being replaced by rookie Reuben Randle (whom I like, but still), I don't see that trend being broken. So now it's about his yardage. Here's the percentage of pass plays the Giants have called under Tom Coughlin the past five years.


2011 -- 60 percent
2010 -- 53.6 percent
2009 -- 56.4 percent
2008 -- 50.8 percent
2007 -- 54.9 percent


One guess which season was the outlier? The Giants are traditionally a power-running team, and this year they will get back to that, controlling the clock and yes, Eli's fantasy value. And that's before we even get to Victor Cruz.


Victor Cruz, WR, Giants (4th, 5th): So as our player profile observes, last year Cruz scored touchdowns of 4, 24, 25, 28, 68, 72, 74, 74 and 99 yards. I agree with Christopher Harris, who wrote all the profiles; the repeatability of long, crazy, acrobatic touchdowns will be tough, especially now that he's on everyone's radar and the Giants will be throwing less. Think he's pretty good, don't think he's this good.


Michael Turner, RB, Falcons (4th, 4th): I reserve the right to take him off this list soon. We're dangerously close to "the hate has gone too far" territory. I still like the upside of Jaquizz, and Turner will be on other people's teams in most of my leagues, but there does come a point where you're like, so what if he's slowing down, had tons of touches and was bailed out last year by a few big games but overall wasn't a great fantasy contributor? He's still the main guy on a good offense. But until we reach that point, he's on the wrong side of 30, the miles have piled up on him by now, and his late-season numbers (excluding the Tampa Bay game) looked brutal.


Frank Gore, RB, 49ers (4th, 5th): Pick a stat, any stat. As the notes on our player cards, er, note, Gore's touches went down last year (and significantly so in the second half). Pro Football Focus notes that, using their metrics, Gore was "near the bottom of the league with a 23.8 elusive rating and a plus-2.1 overall rating last year". FootballOutsiders.com notes that using DVOA, their metric, Gore was lowest among running backs with at least 275 carries and that "he had just 12 broken tackles last year, very low totals for a starting back." And then there's the Matthew Berry metric that points out he's had just one season with double-digit scores and only two seasons with all 16 games played (those late West Coast games with Gore listed as questionable are always fun to deal with) -- and the 49ers just added Brandon Jacobs and LaMichael James to their backfield, and they already had Kendall Hunter. Gore's stuff percentage was third-highest in the NFL on runs between an opponent's 1-9 yard line, and six of his eight scores last year came from 5 yards in, which isn't something you want to count on for your touchdowns. Receptions were way down (after 40-plus receptions for five straight years, he had just 17 last year). I always say, I'd rather jump off the bandwagon a year too early than a year too late. I'm off the bandwagon.

Peyton Manning, QB, Broncos (4th/5th, 6th): Archie, if you're reading this, I swear, I don't hate your kids. Just where they are being drafted. You can't tell me Peyton isn't a risk. He's 36, off four major neck surgeries, has missed a year, has new teammates, at least some slight changes to the offense and 15 of 16 games will be outdoors. There is upside there, of course; he's Peyton Manning. But there is also upside with Tony Romo and Philip Rivers. All three guys could have injuries or regress, all three have 4,700-yard/35-TD upside. Only difference is Romo and Rivers are going 1-3 rounds later than Peyton.


Vernon Davis, TE, 49ers (6th, 11th): Two. Because of last year's playoffs, people will forget the number two. As in, last year, Vernon Davis had just two games in which he scored more than five fantasy points without also scoring a touchdown. (Tony Gonzalez, by comparison, had six such games last year.) I hate a tight end who is so touchdown-dependent for his fantasy value. And I don't believe the playoffs are a harbinger of things to come; the 49ers are not going to win with Alex Smith throwing it 42 times like he did against the Saints (he averaged 27 attempts a game last year). Davis was only 10th in targets among tight ends, as the 49ers went with a ball-control, running offense last year. And as our player profile, er, profiles, Vernon's 6.7 yards at the catch was outside the top 20. So not a ton of looks his way, comparatively, and they're not throwing deep when they do. Remains to be seen if Mario Manningham and possibly Randy Moss open things up for Davis or take that many more balls away, but my projection is that he'll score a handful of touchdowns over the course of the season, but those will be hard to predict. You can get that kind of tight end much later. For where Davis is being drafted (No. 4 at the position), he needs to be much more than that.


Roy Helu, RB, Redskins (6th, 9th): Current reports have him third on the depth chart. That changes every second with Mike Shanahan, but that's the problem. He's a Redskins running back. Don't trust the lot of them.


Vincent Jackson, WR, Buccaneers (6th, 7th): He's just so many things I hate: A guy who just got paid, who has never really proven he's worth it; he's on a new team with a new playbook and quarterback; he has downgraded his QB and he's a fantasy whack-a-mole; he'll have huge games and then disappear. And with V-Jax, be it injury or contract or controversy, it just seems there's always something with him. Considering that guys like Harvin, Maclin, Steve Johnson, Antonio Brown and Demaryius Thomas are being drafted after him and can be had cheaper, Jackson won't be on any of my teams this year.


Stevan Ridley, RB, Patriots (7th, 11th): Just can't imagine a scenario where I'd ever feel good about starting a Patriots running back. Lotta mouths to feed in their run game, which takes a back seat to their pass game; he's as good a guess as any to have the most value of any New England back, but good luck trying to hit that lottery.


Jonathan Stewart (7th , 9th) and DeAngelo Williams, RBs, Panthers (9th, 10th): See Ridley, Stevan. Barring injuries that thin the herd, would never feel confident starting either guy.


San Francisco 49ers D/ST (8th, 15th): Really, guys? A defense in the eighth? Also going in the eighth round as of this writing: Doug Martin, Robert Griffin the Third, Isaac Redman, Aaron Hernandez, Ben Roethlisberger. Really, guys? Really?


Jahvid Best, RB, Lions (9th, 14th): Can't stay healthy. Even if he could, the Lions can't run. Even if they could, there's competition there. Too many question marks to be going ahead of guys like Hillis, C.J. Spiller or Michael Bush.


Santonio Holmes, WR, Jets (10th, 12th): Well, unless your league gives points for blocking on the QB option.


Stephen Gostkowski, K, Patriots (11th, 16th): All you 49ers defense-drafting fools I just insulted? All is forgiven. Sigh.


Sidney Rice, WR, Seahawks (12th, 16th): When a team says, "You know what? We think the drama of an almost-40-year-old Terrell Owens is a better option than having you as the undisputed No. 1 receiver," that's a hint. Lotta wideouts with more upside and less injury risk and better quarterback situations going later than Rice.


Felix Jones, RB, Cowboys (12th, 16th): Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me every single season…


Andy Dalton, QB. Bengals (13th, wouldn't draft): Very tough division, conservative offense, single-digit fantasy points in three of his final five games. He doesn't have the fantasy upside of Carson Palmer, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Joe Flacco or even Andrew Luck, all of whom are being drafted after him.


Kellen Winslow, TE, Seahawks (14th/15th, wouldn't draft) As our player profile, er, notes, yes, that's it! As our player profile notes, he's never had more than five scores in a season, has gone an insane 39 starts with just one 100-yard game and now he's on a new team trotting out a new offense with questionable quarterback play. He's going ahead of much higher upside guys like Jermaine Gresham, Kyle Rudolph, Dustin Keller, Scott Chandler and Martellus Bennett, whom I should have mentioned in the love section above. I actually think Bennett could have a nice year in New York, free from the shadow of Jason Witten.

And there we have it, Love/Hate for the 2012 preseason is in the books. Many more updates, articles, podcasts, video, "Fantasy Football Now" episodes, rankings, mock drafts, tweets and Facebook posts coming your way before we kick the season off, but in the meantime, when you saw this link and any other link to a something I've done … thank you for saying yes.

 

[HacheMan]

Get the Handcuffs Out: Part 2 Anyone that brushes off the concept of “handcuffing” should talk to a 2011 Darren McFadden owner.

If you drafted McFadden and passed on Michael Bush, your season was crippled. On the flip side, owners that practiced proper handcuffing technique yawned at the starter’s injury and had a nice belly laugh as Bush piled up 1,047 total yards and five touchdowns in nine starts.

However, the art of handcuffing is not as simple as it sounds. Bush was an example of a perfect storm, embodying the three main things we look for in a quality running back handcuff:

A) He’ll be a true feature back in the event of a starter’s injury.
B) He has enough talent to actually do something with that feature back role.
C) His offense is good enough to support a dropoff in talent at the running back position.

With that criteria in mind, you’ll find the most important handcuffs for the 2012 season below. Note that all committees (Buffalo, New England, Washington, New Orleans, Minnesota, Carolina, New Orleans, Cincinnati) are excluded.

Also, bang it here for Part 1 of this series -- Mike Clay’s thorough look at the top-five handcuffs at quarterback, wideout and tight end.

RB TIER ONE: HANDCUFF AT ALL COSTS
1. BEN TATE - ADP 85.8
Starter: Arian Foster
Outlook: Tate would be a starter on at least a third of the NFL’s teams. In the three games that Foster missed last season, Tate averaged 19.6 carries for 98.3 yards with two touchdowns. On the season, he compiled a gaudy 5.4 YPC on 175 totes. And when you factor in the Texans’ road-grating offensive line, no backup fits our handcuff criteria better. The ability to back up Foster with Tate is a big reason the former is appealing as the No. 1 overall pick in fantasy.

Editor’s Note: For constantly updating rankings, projections, exclusive columns, chats and much more, check out the 2012 Draft Guide!

2. MICHAEL BUSH - ADP 93.4
Starter: Matt Forte
Outlook: Bush has a new home this season, but his situation isn’t all that different. He’ll hold some standalone value as a goal-line vulture and would be counted on for a monster role if Forte were to go down. Bush obviously isn’t the receiver that Forte is out of the backfield, but he is no slouch in that department either (28 catches in nine 2011 starts). The Bears wouldn’t have to alter their scheme drastically.

3. RASHAD JENNINGS - ADP 145.2
Starter: Maurice Jones-Drew
Outlook: I delved into the history of holdouts last week. The bottom line is that even if/when Jones-Drew reports, there’s reason for concern. Chris Johnson (ineffectiveness), Larry Johnson (ineffectiveness and then injury) and Jamal Anderson (injury) are all examples of running back holdouts that buried owners. MJD has also racked up an absurd 1,084 touches over the last three years.

As for Jennings, the kid can play. Last year’s knee injury that landed him on IR before the season even started was only a sprain rather than a tear. He was cleared to play football midway through last season. Jennings has been the star of Jaguars camp so far and holds a career 5.4 YPC average. The Jags will lean on Jennings if MJD misses games for holdout or injury.

4. PEYTON HILLIS - ADP 82.4
Starter: Jamaal Charles
Outlook: I was hesitant to put Hillis on a “handcuff list" because I think he’s going to be part of a pretty heavy timeshare with Charles. I know Charles is having a strong camp, but as I outlined here, running backs one year removed from ACL tears don’t do too well. However, Hillis’ ADP is in the range of some other strong handcuffs, so here he sits.

Anyway, the Chiefs are going to be an extremely run-heavy team no matter what. And given the above note about backs off ACL tears, Charles owners should go out of their way to protect themselves. Hillis is just one year removed from a 1,117-yard, 11-touchdowns season and is now playing with one of the game’s premier run-blocking lines.


TIER TWO: HANDCUFFING WOULD BE WISE
5. ISAIAH PEAD - ADP 138.6
Starter: Steven Jackson
Outlook: Pead has been extremely impressive since the Rams drafted him 50th overall in April. Drawing comparisons to the likes of Chris Johnson, Darren Sproles and LeSean McCoy, the Cincy product posted 4.4 speed at the Combine. It’s clear that the Rams don’t just view the 197-pounder as a change-of-pace back though, as they’ve hinted at a feature back future. With Jackson at age 29, Pead is a no-brainer handcuff.

6. DAVID WILSON - ADP 99.5
Starter: Ahmad Bradshaw
Outlook: Don’t be scared of the unknown here. Simply put, the Giants didn’t use a first-round pick on Wilson for the fun of it. They know that he’s a supreme talent and that Bradshaw has had lingering foot/ankle issues for years. Wilson has a ways to go in pass protection, but he’d be explosive if given a chance to start games.

Additionally, there’s some standalone value here. Over the last two years, Brandon Jacobs has averaged 10.7 touches per game. That’s enough for deep-leaguers to take notice of Wilson at the ultra-thin running back spot.

7. JASON SNELLING - ADP 194.7
Starter: Michael Turner
Outlook: The wear on 30-year-old Turner’s tires (1,189 carries over last four seasons) has been well-documented by everyone this offseason, including the Falcons. It’s part of the reason they are shifting to an up-tempo, space-oriented, passing attack. That style fits much better with Snelling’s game than Turner’s anyway. So if the starter went down, Jacquizz Rodgers’ hybrid, change-of-pace role projects to stay the same while Snelling picks up the bulk of the workload.

8. FELIX JONES - ADP 122.9
Starter: DeMarco Murray
Outlook: Jones flubbed his chance to seize feature-back glory last season, getting held under 3.0 YPC in three of his first five starts. A subsequent high-ankle sprain allowed Murray to seize the gig. However, Felix may be more comfortable in a backup role anyway.

When Murray got hurt late in the year, Jones ripped off two straight 100-yard games and caught 16 passes over the final four weeks. He still has explosive home run ability and the Cowboys brought in no real competition for the backup job this offseason.

9. DION LEWIS - ADP N/A
Starter: LeSean McCoy
Outlook: It wasn’t a good offseason for Lewis. The Eagles drafted Bryce Brown in the seventh round and added undrafted free agent Chris Polk. Lewis also lost his kick returner job and got in trouble for pulling a fire alarm at a Hampton Inn in upstate New York. All that led to speculation that he was on the roster bubble and wouldn’t even have the backfield to himself if McCoy went down.

Still, I’m not totally buying Lewis as an inept talent. He has bounced back with a strong start to training camp, even earning praise as the standout star of the first week. He’s reportedly looked faster, more decisive and more confident in his second season. When McCoy sat out Week 17 last year, Lewis rushed 12 times for 58 yards with a touchdown. He’s worth a ‘cuff.


TIER THREE: HANDCUFF, BUT KEEP THE KEY
10. KENDALL HUNTER - ADP 161.8
Starter: Frank Gore
Outlook: Hunter was in a much better handcuff situation last year. It’s not that his talent has declined or Gore has found the fountain of youth -- it’s that the Niners added both Brandon Jacobs and LaMichael James this offseason. Jacobs has been impressing in camp and appears poised to make the team. So if Gore were to go down, Hunter would be leading a committee instead of pushing for 20-plus touches.

11. LEGARRETTE BLOUNT - ADP 112.6
Starter: Doug Martin
Outlook: Martin has predictably been one of training camp’s most buzz-worthy players, assuming every-down work as the starter. That leaves Blount in a battle with seventh-round rookie Michael Smith for backup duties. Blount should be the clear handcuff here, but talent is the question. He got benched last year due to fumbles, a lack of ability in the passing game and being late to meetings.

12. ROBERT TURBIN - ADP 154.7
Starter: Marshawn Lynch
Outlook: I’m as confused as anyone about Lynch’s legal situation. In some instances, commissioner Roger Goodell can hand out suspensions whenever he wants. In others, he waits for the legal process to run its course. All I know is that there’s enough of a suspension risk here for Lynch drafters to roster Turbin.

A 5’10, 222-pound power back out of Utah State, Turbin would handle the bulk of the early-down work if Lynch misses time. Leon Washington would be in the mix as the change-of-pace and third-down back.


TIER FOUR: HANDCUFFING OPTIONAL
13. JAVON RINGER - ADP 172.3
Starter: Chris Johnson
Outlook: There’s no doubt that Ringer is Johnson’s direct backup and would push for a three-down role if called upon. The question here is talent. Ringer averaged a meager 3.1 YPC on 59 totes last year, a sign that he’d just be a weak flex play in a best-case scenario.

14. JOE MCKNIGHT - ADP 172.8
Starter: Shonn Greene
Outlook: McKnight’s struggles in pass protection are an issue. He’s supposed to be the third-down and change-of-pace back, but Bilal Powell is nipping at his heels. Therefore, a Greene injury wouldn’t yield a ton of upside for McKnight. He’d be sharing the load with Powell after averaging a brutal 3.1 YPC last season.

15. RONNIE BROWN - ADP N/A
Starter: Ryan Mathews
Outlook: It’s fair to question how much Brown has left in the tank. He’ll be 31 in December, hasn’t topped 3.7 YPC in either of the last two seasons and showed zero burst while with the Eagles last season. The only good news for him is that Jackie Battle and Curtis Brinkley can’t play either.

16. BERNARD PIERCE - ADP 191.7
Starter: Ray Rice
Outlook: Rice hasn’t missed a game since 2008, racking up 1,069 touches over the last three seasons. Is he due for an injury? Maybe. Does he keep himself in better shape than 99 percent of the league? Certainly.

Therefore, it’s hard to get too excited about Pierce. Even if Rice did break the trend and get injured, Anthony Allen would be in the mix for carries as a power back.

 

[HacheMan]

Progress Fantasy FB Draft This is an in-progress standard-scoring industry league draft in which I annually participate. The league will be played out using this draft. We start one quarterback, two running backs, and three receivers without a flex. The scoring system awards four points for passing touchdowns, and six apiece for receiving and rushing scores. It is a non-PPR league.

I will add commentary and update the picks as the draft moves along, so keep refreshing.

First Round

1.1. Arian Foster, Texans RB
1.2. Ryan Mathews, Chargers RB
1.3. Ray Rice, Ravens RB
1.4. LeSean McCoy, Eagles RB
1.5. Chris Johnson, Titans RB
1.6. Aaron Rodgers, Packers QB
1.7. Calvin Johnson, Lions WR
1.8. Darren McFadden, Raiders RB
1.9. Tom Brady, Patriots QB
1.10. Drew Brees, Saints QB
1.11. Cam Newton, Panthers QB
1.12. DeMarco Murray, Cowboys RB
1.13. Marshawn Lynch, Seahawks RB
1.14. Jamaal Charles, Chiefs RB

Rotoworld's Pick: Mathews. I think the top-four backs are bunched pretty tightly at the top, and the deck could be shuffled any which way. I would have taken Foster No. 1, but Mathews was my pick at 2 because I think his workload will be stronger than Rice and McCoy's, and I think the Chargers will lean on Mathews as a true bellcow runner in more of a ground-oriented offense than we've seen from San Diego in years past. The workload and talent on Mathews are elite. The fact that he has struggled with injuries his first two seasons doesn't really bother me. I think he's an extremely well conditioned athlete in 2012, and I expect him to stay healthy and get the rock a ton.

Second Round

2.1. Matt Forte, Bears RB
2.2. Michael Turner, Falcons RB
2.3. Trent Richardson, Browns RB
2.4. Maurice Jones-Drew, Jaguars RB
2.5. Steven Jackson, Rams RB
2.6. Adrian Peterson, Vikings RB
2.7. Matthew Stafford, Lions QB
2.8. Fred Jackson, Bills RB
2.9. Larry Fitzgerald, Cardinals WR
2.10. Jimmy Graham, Saints TE
2.11. A.J. Green, Bengals WR
2.12. Rob Gronkowski, Patriots TE
2.13. Michael Vick, Eagles QB
2.14. Wes Welker, Patriots WR

Rotoworld's Pick: Vick. I generally don't buy the idea that quarterbacks are worth first- or even second-round picks because elite scorers at the position can be found in the third through even seventh rounds. With Rodgers, Brady, Brees, Newton, and Stafford off the board following a bit of an early run, however, Vick was my best option while staying consistent on the notion that signal callers don't need to be drafted in the top 24. (This is a 14-teamer, remember.) I think Vick will score just like the first five -- with upside for even more -- and I didn't need to blow a particularly premium pick to get him.

Third Round

3.1. Darren Sproles, Saints RB
3.2. Julio Jones, Falcons WR
3.3. Doug Martin, Buccaneers RB
3.4. Roddy White, Falcons WR
3.5. Brandon Marshall, Bears WR
3.6. Ahmad Bradshaw, Giants RB
3.7. Shonn Greene, Jets RB
3.8. Willis McGahee, Broncos RB
3.9. Frank Gore, 49ers RB
3.10. Greg Jennings, Packers WR
3.11. Victor Cruz, Giants WR
3.12. Demaryius Thomas, Broncos WR
3.13. Jordy Nelson, Packers WR
3.14. Andre Johnson, Texans WR

Rotoworld's Pick: Jones. I briefly considered drafting Martin based simply on Supply and Demand. Running backs are shallow, and receivers are deep. Ultimately, I went with my gut because I believe Jones will be more of a weekly difference maker than Martin and has potential to finish second among wideouts in fantasy scoring. In fact, Rotoworld recently moved Jones ahead of Andre Johnson and Larry Fitzgerald in our receiver rankings, just behind Megatron. A link to those ranks can be found here. I'm going to be scuffling for an RB2, but I'm okay with that.

Fourth Round

4.1. Mike Wallace, Steelers WR
4.2. Marques Colston, Saints WR
4.3. Hakeem Nicks, Giants WR
4.4. Isaac Redman, Steelers RB
4.5. Dez Bryant, Cowboys WR
4.6. Steve Johnson, Bills WR
4.7. Jeremy Maclin, Eagles WR
4.8. Percy Harvin, Vikings WR
4.9. BenJarvus Green-Ellis, Bengals RB
4.10. Stevan Ridley, Patriots RB
4.11 Steve Smith, Panthers WR
4.12. Vincent Jackson, Buccaneers WR
4.13. Brandon Lloyd, Patriots WR
4.14. Eric Decker, Broncos WR

Rotoworld's Pick: Lloyd.

Fifth Round

5.1. Antonio Gates, Chargers TE
5.2. Aaron Hernandez, Patriots TE
5.3. On the clock.

Rotoworld's Pick: Hernandez. I was admittedly hoping for Gates here, but he went the pick before me. I didn't like any of the running back or receiver options near the top of my Big Board, so I opted for the best tight end remaining. Hernandez got the edge over Jermichael Finley because he's a more consistent player who will get the football in a variety of ways. I don't mind that I now own Lloyd and Hernandez -- both Patriots -- because New England's offense is a certified juggernaut and can support both as fantasy producers. I think it's fine to draft two pass catchers on the same team if I'm confident the offense will be potent and pile up pass attempts. The Patriots will throw the football, and they will be highly potent.

My Roster So Far:

QB Michael Vick
RB Ryan Mathews
RB
WR Julio Jones
WR Brandon Lloyd
WR
TE Aaron Hernandez
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[HacheMan]

2012 Fantasy Football Mock Draft 4

10-team league with standard scoring

By Brian Gramling | Special to ESPN.com

Sammy Hagar once sang, "There's only one way to rock," and it's tough to disagree with that statement. However, there are plenty of ways to mock, which was on full display Tuesday, when ESPN.com fantasy experts conducted the second 10-team standard draft, forever referred to as Mock 4.


The speed of the draft -- 160 picks in 55 minutes, roughly 20 seconds per pick -- also made it feel like Mach 4 at times. This latest mock draft took place exactly three months after Mock Draft 1 (May 7), also a 10-team standard league. Mock 2 (June 14) and Mock 3 (July 17) were 12-team drafts.


The cast of characters was mostly the same from May, with Eric Karabell, Stephania Bell, KC Joyner, Shawn Cwalinski, Jim McCormick, Tristan H. Cockcroft, Dave Hunter and Christopher Harris returning and just two replacements -- Keith Lipscomb and me. Although there hasn't been an explosion of major football news to shake up the rankings this summer, there were still plenty of changes to note.


When comparing picks from Mock Draft 1 to Mock Draft 4, nine rising players were chosen at least 20 places higher in the most recent mock: WR Antonio Brown (63 places, 131 to 68), WR Vincent Brown (36 spots), WR Nate Washington (34 spots), RB Stevan Ridley (32 spots), RB Peyton Hillis (29 spots), RB Kevin Smith (29 spots), TE Brandon Pettigrew (25 spots), WR Randy Moss (23 spots) and QB Josh Freeman (20 spots).


On the flip side, four players, plus two defenses, fell at least 25 spots, mostly due to experts waiting to fill positions that were taken by nearly all other drafters. TE Jacob Tamme, Cockcroft's only tight end, fell 37 spots from 90 to 127 in Mock 4, while Peyton Manning (35 spots) and Philip Rivers (26 spots) were the final starting quarterbacks to be drafted. If this were a 12-team draft, there's no way any of these players would have lasted nearly this long. WR Vincent Jackson also fell 20 spots. There were also 22 different picks made in Mock 4 compared to Mock 1.


Below is a breakdown of the draft, which involved a slew of different strategies. You can click here for rosters by team to see which analyst compiled the most potent roster.


ROUND 1

<table><thead><tr><th> Pick </th><th> Overall </th><th> By </th><th> Player </th><th> Pos Rank </th></tr><tbody><tr class="last"><td> 1 </td><td> 1 </td><td> Karabell </td><td>Arian Foster, Hou </td><td> RB1 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 2 </td><td> 2 </td><td> Bell </td><td>Ray Rice, Bal </td><td> RB2 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 3 </td><td> 3 </td><td> Joyner </td><td>Aaron Rodgers, GB </td><td> QB1 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 4 </td><td> 4 </td><td> Cwalinski </td><td>LeSean McCoy, Phi </td><td> RB3 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 5 </td><td> 5 </td><td> Gramling </td><td>Calvin Johnson, Det </td><td> WR1 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 6 </td><td> 6 </td><td> McCormick </td><td>Tom Brady, NE </td><td> QB2 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 7 </td><td> 7 </td><td> Cockcroft </td><td>Chris Johnson, Ten </td><td> RB4 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 8 </td><td> 8 </td><td> Hunter </td><td>Ryan Mathews, SD </td><td> RB5 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 9 </td><td> 9 </td><td> Harris </td><td>Maurice Jones-Drew, Jac </td><td> RB6 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 10 </td><td> 10 </td><td> Lipscomb </td><td>Drew Brees, NO </td><td> QB3 </td></tr></tbody></table>



Round 1 analysis: No big surprises, other than maybe Joyner taking QB Aaron Rodgers third overall. "I've got Rodgers ranked as the No. 1 overall player in any format," said Joyner. "He's the only truly elite player with zero question marks."


Tom Brady clocked in at No. 6 to McCormick. "I have a similar take on Brady," he said. "The only question marks are how the points are divided up between the receiving targets. While QBs can be found at a value in these staff mocks, Brady presents such certainty."


Holdout RB Maurice Jones-Drew slipped to ninth overall, behind No. 7 Chris Johnson and No. 8 Ryan Mathews, who moved up from 13th in Mock 1 and is 12th in ESPN.com live draft results.


ROUND 2

<table><thead><tr><th> Pick </th><th> Overall </th><th> By </th><th> Player </th><th> Pos Rank </th></tr><tbody><tr class="last"><td> 1 </td><td> 11 </td><td> Lipscomb </td><td>Larry Fitzgerald, Ari </td><td> WR2 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 2 </td><td> 12 </td><td> Harris </td><td>Matthew Stafford, Det </td><td> QB4 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 3 </td><td> 13 </td><td> Hunter </td><td>Roddy White, Atl </td><td> WR3 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 4 </td><td> 14 </td><td> Cockcroft </td><td>Andre Johnson, Hou </td><td> WR4 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 5 </td><td> 15 </td><td> McCormick </td><td>Rob Gronkowski, NE </td><td> TE1 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 6 </td><td> 16 </td><td> Gramling </td><td>Matt Forte, Chi </td><td> RB7 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 7 </td><td> 17 </td><td> Cwalinski </td><td>Jimmy Graham, NO </td><td> TE2 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 8 </td><td> 18 </td><td> Joyner </td><td>DeMarco Murray, Dal </td><td> RB8 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 9 </td><td> 19 </td><td> Bell </td><td>Hakeem Nicks, NYG </td><td> WR5 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 10 </td><td> 20 </td><td> Karabell </td><td>Greg Jennings, GB </td><td> WR6 </td></tr></tbody></table>



Round 2 analysis: Just two running backs were picked in Round 2, as most teams nailed down their first pass-catcher. Hunter chose Roddy White 13th overall despite both Andre Johnson and Greg Jennings being on the board. Why? "White is the safest and most consistent WR in the game, plus he gets targeted a ton and doesn't miss games due to injury," Hunter said. "I know some are concerned with Julio Jones cutting into White's production, but I'm not. There will be plenty of offense to go around for both Falcons receivers."


Both monster tight ends went in Round 2, as Jimmy Graham went 17th overall, ahead of his Mock 1 position (24th) and live draft results (20th). The round closed out with Hakeem Nicks at No. 19 and Jennings, who went 11th overall in Mock 1, slipping to Karabell at No. 20. Was Bell's choice of Nicks a reach? "I think Nicks will be overlooked in leagues that are drafting earlier because some will still be spooked by the foot injury, but I am not," said Bell, who explains more in her Nicks injury column. "I expect him to be a top performing receiver and no more of a risk than anyone else who suits up on Sunday [as opposed to a higher-risk player, such as Darren McFadden]."


ROUND 3

<table><thead><tr><th> Pick </th><th> Overall </th><th> By </th><th> Player </th><th> Pos Rank </th></tr><tbody><tr class="last"><td> 1 </td><td> 21 </td><td> Karabell </td><td>Jamaal Charles, KC </td><td> RB9 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 2 </td><td> 22 </td><td> Bell </td><td>Steven Jackson, StL </td><td> RB10 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 3 </td><td> 23 </td><td> Joyner </td><td>Wes Welker, NE </td><td> WR7 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 4 </td><td> 24 </td><td> Cwalinski </td><td>Darren McFadden, Oak </td><td> RB11 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 5 </td><td> 25 </td><td> Gramling </td><td>Marshawn Lynch, Sea </td><td> RB12 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 6 </td><td> 26 </td><td> McCormick </td><td>Trent Richardson, Cle </td><td> RB13 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 7 </td><td> 27 </td><td> Cockcroft </td><td>Adrian Peterson, Min </td><td> RB14 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 8 </td><td> 28 </td><td> Hunter </td><td>Cam Newton, Car </td><td> QB5 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 9 </td><td> 29 </td><td> Harris </td><td>Frank Gore, SF </td><td> RB15 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 10 </td><td> 30 </td><td> Lipscomb </td><td>Julio Jones, Atl </td><td> WR8 </td></tr></tbody></table>



Round 3 analysis: Seven running backs were taken in this round, and most of these backs carry injury risks. This is especially true for Adrian Peterson, who went to Cockcroft at No. 27. Cockcroft, who dissected all the angles of ACL rehab in his Jamaal Charles Decisions 2012 column, explains: "This might seem like particularly awkward timing. Having just analyzed ACL surgery recoveries in the Charles piece, I'd know as much as anyone about the risks involved with someone like Adrian Peterson. That said, he's 27 years old, was easily one of the top running backs in the game at the time he got hurt and, based upon the construction of my roster, I wanted a higher-upside RB2 and RB3, and I think I accomplished that with Peterson and DeAngelo Williams. I mean, he was the No. 27 player overall, and No. 14 running back, going after question-mark picks in their own rights in Charles, Darren McFadden and Marshawn Lynch. Isn't the chance I got a second-half-of-the-season RB1 worth a third-round pick?" This Ken Daube Decisions column on when to draft Peterson would agree with Cockcroft's logic.


The other hotly debated name in this round was Cam Newton, who went to Hunter on the next pick, seven spots sooner than in Mock 1. "Newton was too good of a value there for me to pass on him. I've been avoiding him in other drafts," said Hunter. He admitted that with Peyton Manning lasting until the final pick of the eighth round, it "makes my Newton pick look like a big mistake."


ROUND 4

<table><thead><tr><th> Pick </th><th> Overall </th><th> By </th><th> Player </th><th> Pos Rank </th></tr><tbody><tr class="last"><td> 1 </td><td> 31 </td><td> Lipscomb </td><td>Fred Jackson, Buf </td><td> RB16 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 2 </td><td> 32 </td><td> Harris </td><td>Mike Wallace, Pit </td><td> WR9 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 3 </td><td> 33 </td><td> Hunter </td><td>Michael Turner, Atl </td><td> RB17 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 4 </td><td> 34 </td><td> Cockcroft </td><td>A.J. Green, Cin </td><td> WR10 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 5 </td><td> 35 </td><td> McCormick </td><td>Brandon Marshall, Chi </td><td> WR11 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 6 </td><td> 36 </td><td> Gramling </td><td>Victor Cruz, NYG </td><td> WR12 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 7 </td><td> 37 </td><td> Cwalinski </td><td>Michael Vick, Phi </td><td> QB6 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 8 </td><td> 38 </td><td> Joyner </td><td>Jordy Nelson, GB </td><td> WR13 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 9 </td><td> 39 </td><td> Bell </td><td>Eli Manning, NYG </td><td> QB7 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 10 </td><td> 40 </td><td> Karabell </td><td>Darren Sproles, NO </td><td> RB18 </td></tr></tbody></table>



Round 4 analysis: After Lipscomb drafted his first running back in Fred Jackson, Harris responded with holdout WR Mike Wallace. Harris was not the least bit concerned about Wallace's readiness for the season opener. "In the second week of August, both Wallace and Maurice Jones-Drew [ninth overall pick] are steals where I got them. Holdouts like this rarely end in a player missing time, and these guys are among the most talented players at their positions in the NFL. This is one area where fantasy drafters can take the long view and let their league mates do the panicking."


Wallace wasn't the only receiver who fell 14 spots (from No. 18) from Mock 1 to Mock 4, as A.J. Green, a second-round pick in Mock 1, was chosen 34th by Cockcroft. Bell valued Eli Manning well above the remaining quarterbacks and figured she should pick him here instead of trying to sneak him in later. "I wanted him partly because I already had Hakeem Nicks," she said. "If Manning had gone, I would then have waited much later for my QB."


ROUND 5

<table><thead><tr><th> Pick </th><th> Overall </th><th> By </th><th> Player </th><th> Pos Rank </th></tr><tbody><tr class="last"><td> 1 </td><td> 41 </td><td> Karabell </td><td>Marques Colston, NO </td><td> WR14 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 2 </td><td> 42 </td><td> Bell </td><td>Steve Smith, Car </td><td> WR15 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 3 </td><td> 43 </td><td> Joyner </td><td>Reggie Bush, Mia </td><td> RB19 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 4 </td><td> 44 </td><td> Cwalinski </td><td>Ahmad Bradshaw, NYG </td><td> RB20 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 5 </td><td> 45 </td><td> Gramling </td><td>Willis McGahee, Den </td><td> RB21 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 6 </td><td> 46 </td><td> McCormick </td><td>Dez Bryant, Dal </td><td> WR16 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 7 </td><td> 47 </td><td> Cockcroft </td><td>Tony Romo, Dal </td><td> QB8 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 8 </td><td> 48 </td><td> Hunter </td><td>Antonio Gates, SD </td><td> TE3 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 9 </td><td> 49 </td><td> Harris </td><td>Percy Harvin, Min </td><td> WR17 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 10 </td><td> 50 </td><td> Lipscomb </td><td>Dwayne Bowe, KC </td><td> WR18 </td></tr></tbody></table>



Round 5 analysis: As owners continued filling out starting positions, there weren't any big surprises. Three players moved up more than 10 spots from Mock 1 -- RB Willis McGahee (15), RB Reggie Bush (12) and WR Marques Colston (11). I took McGahee as my flex because his role appears to be much more defined as Denver's true workhorse. Considering he is 49th in live draft results, taking him at 45 wasn't a stretch, especially with running backs thinning out. Joyner also saw the need to grab his second running back when he took Bush. "I thought about going for a WR/flex at that point, but Bush offered too much value to pass up," he said.


McCormick took Dez Bryant at No. 46, exactly where he was picked in Mock 1. "I didn't envision taking the Dez Dispenser," he said. "Even with the potential suspension, I'll take the potential. He can be maddening, but the upside and draft price seemed appropriate. Also, have you heard he looks great in camp?"


ROUND 6

<table><thead><tr><th> Pick </th><th> Overall </th><th> By </th><th> Player </th><th> Pos Rank </th></tr><tbody><tr class="last"><td> 1 </td><td> 51 </td><td> Lipscomb </td><td>Stevan Ridley, NE </td><td> RB22 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 2 </td><td> 52 </td><td> Harris </td><td>Vincent Jackson, TB </td><td> WR19 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 3 </td><td> 53 </td><td> Hunter </td><td>Roy Helu, Wsh </td><td> RB23 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 4 </td><td> 54 </td><td> Cockcroft </td><td>Brandon Lloyd, NE </td><td> WR20 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 5 </td><td> 55 </td><td> McCormick </td><td>Eric Decker, Den </td><td> WR21 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 6 </td><td> 56 </td><td> Gramling </td><td>Jeremy Maclin, Phi </td><td> WR22 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 7 </td><td> 57 </td><td> Cwalinski </td><td>Doug Martin, TB </td><td> RB24 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 8 </td><td> 58 </td><td> Joyner </td><td>Miles Austin, Dal </td><td> WR23 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 9 </td><td> 59 </td><td> Bell </td><td>Vernon Davis, SF </td><td> TE4 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 10 </td><td> 60 </td><td> Karabell </td><td>Steve Johnson, Buf </td><td> WR24 </td></tr></tbody></table>



Round 6 analysis: Lipscomb started off this round with a curious pick of Stevan Ridley, 32 picks earlier than Ridley went in Mock 1. Lipscomb had just one running back at the time, but Roy Helu, Ben Tate and Doug Martin were still on the board. Lipscomb didn't see this pick as a big gamble. "With the 18-pick wait following my swing picks, I didn't expect Ridley to be there at 70," he said. "BenJarvus Green-Ellis scored 24 rushing TDs the past two seasons in this powerful offense, so why can't Ridley do the same this season? I think Ridley's a more talented player, so I'm hoping he takes advantage of the opportunity."


Three picks later, Ridley's new teammate, WR Brandon Lloyd, was picked to rave reviews by Cockcroft. "I was surprised Lloyd fell that far [from 42nd in Mock 1], though I admit I'm probably the most pro-Lloyd of this group," Cockcroft said. Maybe not. "I think Lloyd has potential to post numbers close to what Randy Moss posted in 2007," said Joyner. Considering Moss caught 98 passes for 1,493 yards and 23 touchdowns that season, that is certainly high praise.


Cwalinski was the first expert to draft a reserve, taking Doug Martin as his fourth running back. "I rarely take a backup before getting my starters, but Martin was the best player available on the board at the time by a big margin," Cwalinski said. "He is going to be the main back for the Buccaneers and has looked very good in camp. In a normal league, my plan would be to trade a RB for a WR."


ROUND 7

<table><thead><tr><th> Pick </th><th> Overall </th><th> By </th><th> Player </th><th> Pos Rank </th></tr><tbody><tr class="last"><td> 1 </td><td> 61 </td><td> Karabell </td><td>Ben Tate, Hou </td><td> RB25 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 2 </td><td> 62 </td><td> Bell </td><td>Demaryius Thomas, Den </td><td> WR25 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 3 </td><td> 63 </td><td> Joyner </td><td>Jason Witten, Dal </td><td> TE5 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 4 </td><td> 64 </td><td> Cwalinski </td><td>DeSean Jackson, Phi </td><td> WR26 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 5 </td><td> 65 </td><td> Gramling </td><td>Aaron Hernandez, NE </td><td> TE6 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 6 </td><td> 66 </td><td> McCormick </td><td>Peyton Hillis, KC </td><td> RB26 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 7 </td><td> 67 </td><td> Cockcroft </td><td>DeAngelo Williams, Car </td><td> RB27 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 8 </td><td> 68 </td><td> Hunter </td><td>Antonio Brown, Pit </td><td> WR27 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 9 </td><td> 69 </td><td> Harris </td><td>Jonathan Stewart, Car </td><td> RB28 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 10 </td><td> 70 </td><td> Lipscomb </td><td>Michael Bush, Chi </td><td> RB29 </td></tr></tbody></table>



Round 7 analysis: The seventh round is usually when owners finish filling out skill position starting roles (1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 Flex, 1 TE), and that's precisely what the majority of the experts did. Four players were chosen at least 15 picks earlier than they were in May: Antonio Brown (63 spots), Peyton Hillis (29 spots), Michael Bush (16 spots) and Jason Witten (15 spots). While Brown was simply a group oversight in May, he is certainly worthy of a seventh-round pick in August, especially with Wallace holding out. As for the others:



McCormick on Hillis: "I thought about other backs, but I just believe Hillis is a better talent and should see a really healthy share of the work in Kansas City. Getting back with his former OC [Brian Daboll] should also help."


Lipscomb on Bush: "I'm clearly hoping that Bush gets his share of touches, including the close-in ones. It was between Shonn Greene and Bush for me, so I went with the guy more likely to score TDs. I just hope Bush gets a greater workload at some point."


Joyner on Witten: "I thought about skipping over a tight end in the seventh, but Witten offers too much value to do that. Three Dallas players [DeMarco Murray, Miles Austin] means a big lineup hole in Week 5, though."


ROUND 8

<table><thead><tr><th> Pick </th><th> Overall </th><th> By </th><th> Player </th><th> Pos Rank </th></tr><tbody><tr class="last"><td> 1 </td><td> 71 </td><td> Lipscomb </td><td>Jermichael Finley, GB </td><td> TE7 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 2 </td><td> 72 </td><td> Harris </td><td>Beanie Wells, Ari </td><td> RB30 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 3 </td><td> 73 </td><td> Hunter </td><td>BenJarvus Green-Ellis, Cin </td><td> RB31 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 4 </td><td> 74 </td><td> Cockcroft </td><td>Pierre Garcon, Wsh </td><td> WR28 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 5 </td><td> 75 </td><td> McCormick </td><td>Shonn Greene, NYJ </td><td> RB32 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 6 </td><td> 76 </td><td> Gramling </td><td>Philip Rivers, SD </td><td> QB9 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 7 </td><td> 77 </td><td> Cwalinski </td><td>Torrey Smith, Bal </td><td> WR29 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 8 </td><td> 78 </td><td> Joyner </td><td>Robert Meachem, SD </td><td> WR30 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 9 </td><td> 79 </td><td> Bell </td><td>Mark Ingram, NO </td><td> RB33 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 10 </td><td> 80 </td><td> Karabell </td><td>Peyton Manning, Den </td><td> QB10 </td></tr></tbody></table>

ROUND 9

<table><thead><tr><th> Pick </th><th> Overall </th><th> By </th><th> Player </th><th> Pos Rank </th></tr><tbody><tr class="last"><td> 1 </td><td> 81 </td><td> Karabell </td><td>Tony Gonzalez, Atl </td><td> TE8 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 2 </td><td> 82 </td><td> Bell </td><td>Malcom Floyd, SD </td><td> WR31 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 3 </td><td> 83 </td><td> Joyner </td><td> 49ers D/ST </td><td> D/ST1 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 4 </td><td> 84 </td><td> Cwalinski </td><td>Kenny Britt, Ten </td><td> WR32 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 5 </td><td> 85 </td><td> Gramling </td><td>Toby Gerhart, Min </td><td> RB34 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 6 </td><td> 86 </td><td> McCormick </td><td>Isaac Redman, Pit </td><td> RB35 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 7 </td><td> 87 </td><td> Cockcroft </td><td>C.J. Spiller, Buf </td><td> RB36 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 8 </td><td> 88 </td><td> Hunter </td><td>Robert Griffin III, Wsh </td><td> QB11 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 9 </td><td> 89 </td><td> Harris </td><td>Fred Davis, Wsh </td><td> TE9 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 10 </td><td> 90 </td><td> Lipscomb </td><td>Matt Ryan, Atl </td><td> QB12 </td></tr></tbody></table>

ROUND 10

<table><thead><tr><th> Pick </th><th> Overall </th><th> By </th><th> Player </th><th> Pos Rank </th></tr><tbody><tr class="last"><td> 1 </td><td> 91 </td><td> Lipscomb </td><td>Nate Washington, Ten </td><td> WR33 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 2 </td><td> 92 </td><td> Harris </td><td>Denarius Moore, Oak </td><td> WR34 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 3 </td><td> 93 </td><td> Hunter </td><td>David Wilson, NYG </td><td> RB37 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 4 </td><td> 94 </td><td> Cockcroft </td><td>Donald Brown, Ind </td><td> RB38 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 5 </td><td> 95 </td><td> McCormick </td><td>Reggie Wayne, Ind </td><td> WR35 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 6 </td><td> 96 </td><td> Gramling </td><td>Ben Roethlisberger, Pit </td><td> QB13 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 7 </td><td> 97 </td><td> Cwalinski </td><td>Darrius Heyward-Bey, Oak </td><td> WR36 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 8 </td><td> 98 </td><td> Joyner </td><td>Felix Jones, Dal </td><td> RB39 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 9 </td><td> 99 </td><td> Bell </td><td>Anquan Boldin, Bal </td><td> WR37 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 10 </td><td> 100 </td><td> Karabell </td><td>Jahvid Best, Det </td><td> RB40 </td></tr></tbody></table>




Rounds 8-10 analysis: The start of the reserve rounds included two starting quarterbacks in Round 8, as I chose Philip Rivers 76th overall and Karabell got Peyton Manning at 80. The wait paid off, as we knew the other owners already had their quarterbacks. Karabell and I were perfectly fine with "settling" for either signal-caller. Considering I passed over Tom Brady in Round 1 and had no chance to get Drew Brees or Matthew Stafford in Round 2, I was in no hurry to take another quarterback. When I asked Karabell if he had planned on employing this strategy all along picking from the No. 1 spot, he replied, "I wouldn't say I planned to be the last team to get a quarterback, and it has nothing to do with draft position, but it's a mindset to fill running back and wide receiver early and get depth there then worry about who's throwing the football. And I like the quarterbacks that can be had from Round 7 on."


The ninth round was where the first defense/special teams went, as Joyner grabbed the San Francisco 49ers, three rounds before any other D/ST was drafted. Did he regret his decision? "The 49ers pick was driven by the idea that this D/ST was a starter and therefore worth more than any of the backup players who were on the board at the time," said Joyner. "They are my No. 1-ranked D/ST, and going out on a limb a round early to get that quality of starter seemed a sensible move."


ROUND 11

<table><thead><tr><th> Pick </th><th> Overall </th><th> By </th><th> Player </th><th> Pos Rank </th></tr><tbody><tr class="last"><td> 1 </td><td> 101 </td><td> Karabell </td><td>Lance Moore, NO </td><td> WR38 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 2 </td><td> 102 </td><td> Bell </td><td>Matt Schaub, Hou </td><td> QB14 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 3 </td><td> 103 </td><td> Joyner </td><td>Michael Crabtree, SF </td><td> WR39 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 4 </td><td> 104 </td><td> Cwalinski </td><td>James Starks, GB </td><td> RB41 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 5 </td><td> 105 </td><td> Gramling </td><td>LeGarrette Blount, TB </td><td> RB42 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 6 </td><td> 106 </td><td> McCormick </td><td>Kevin Smith, Det </td><td> RB43 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 7 </td><td> 107 </td><td> Cockcroft </td><td>Santonio Holmes, NYJ </td><td> WR40 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 8 </td><td> 108 </td><td> Hunter </td><td>Titus Young, Det </td><td> WR41 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 9 </td><td> 109 </td><td> Harris </td><td>Shane Vereen, NE </td><td> RB44 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 10 </td><td> 110 </td><td> Lipscomb </td><td>Mike Goodson, Oak </td><td> RB45 </td></tr></tbody></table>

ROUND 12

<table><thead><tr><th> Pick </th><th> Overall </th><th> By </th><th> Player </th><th> Pos Rank </th></tr><tbody><tr class="last"><td> 1 </td><td> 111 </td><td> Lipscomb </td><td>Vincent Brown, SD </td><td> WR42 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 2 </td><td> 112 </td><td> Harris </td><td>Daniel Thomas, Mia </td><td> RB46 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 3 </td><td> 113 </td><td> Hunter </td><td>Tim Hightower, Wsh </td><td> RB47 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 4 </td><td> 114 </td><td> Cockcroft </td><td>Rueben Randle, NYG </td><td> WR43 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 5 </td><td> 115 </td><td> McCormick </td><td>Randy Moss, SF </td><td> WR44 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 6 </td><td> 116 </td><td> Gramling </td><td> Texans D/ST </td><td> D/ST2 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 7 </td><td> 117 </td><td> Cwalinski </td><td>Jay Cutler, Chi </td><td> QB15 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 8 </td><td> 118 </td><td> Joyner </td><td>Jared Cook, Ten </td><td> TE10 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 9 </td><td> 119 </td><td> Bell </td><td>Justin Blackmon, Jac </td><td> WR45 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 10 </td><td> 120 </td><td> Karabell </td><td>Josh Freeman, TB </td><td> QB16 </td></tr></tbody></table>

ROUND 13

<table><thead><tr><th> Pick </th><th> Overall </th><th> By </th><th> Player </th><th> Pos Rank </th></tr><tbody><tr class="last"><td> 1 </td><td> 121 </td><td> Karabell </td><td>Ryan Williams, Ari </td><td> RB48 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 2 </td><td> 122 </td><td> Bell </td><td>Mike Tolbert, Car </td><td> RB49 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 3 </td><td> 123 </td><td> Joyner </td><td>Pierre Thomas, NO </td><td> RB50 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 4 </td><td> 124 </td><td> Cwalinski </td><td>Sidney Rice, Sea </td><td> WR46 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 5 </td><td> 125 </td><td> Gramling </td><td>Brandon Pettigrew, Det </td><td> TE11 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 6 </td><td> 126 </td><td> McCormick </td><td>Danny Amendola, StL </td><td> WR47 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 7 </td><td> 127 </td><td> Cockcroft </td><td>Jacob Tamme, Den </td><td> TE12 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 8 </td><td> 128 </td><td> Hunter </td><td> Ravens D/ST </td><td> D/ST3 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 9 </td><td> 129 </td><td> Harris </td><td>Kendall Wright, Ten </td><td> WR48 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 10 </td><td> 130 </td><td> Lipscomb </td><td>Rashad Jennings, Jac </td><td> RB51 </td></tr></tbody></table>



Rounds 11-13 analysis: Cockcroft was steadfast in waiting as long as possible before taking a tight end. With just two owners selecting a backup tight end [Jared Cook to Joyner, Brandon Pettigrew to me], he still ended up with Jacob Tamme in the 13th round, which is not such a bad consolation prize.


Only two D/STs were deemed worthy of a pick in these rounds, as I grabbed the Houston Texans in the 12th when I felt I had sufficient depth at every other position. Hunter took the Baltimore Ravens in the 13th, three rounds and 35 picks later than they were picked in Mock 1. Mike Goodson (No. 110) was the first Mock 4 player that was not picked three months ago. Lipscomb later picked RB Rashad Jennings and WR Randall Cobb at No. 130 and No. 131, respectively. Like Goodson -- who suffered a neck injury a few hours after Lipscomb took him -- neither Jennings nor Cobb was selected in Mock 1. "Admittedly, there is a lot of unknown on this roster, but you're not drafting last year's stats," Lipscomb said. "Doing your best to grab this year's breakouts can go a long way. If things fall the right way, I feel my final two [skill] picks also have the talent to take advantage of opportunities if presented to them. In a 10-team league, where the waiver wire is more plentiful than in deeper formats, I like to pick guys with potential to bust out."


ROUND 14

<table><thead><tr><th> Pick </th><th> Overall </th><th> By </th><th> Player </th><th> Pos Rank </th></tr><tbody><tr class="last"><td> 1 </td><td> 131 </td><td> Lipscomb </td><td>Randall Cobb, GB </td><td> WR49 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 2 </td><td> 132 </td><td> Harris </td><td>Tim Tebow, NYJ </td><td> QB17 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 3 </td><td> 133 </td><td> Hunter </td><td>Greg Little, Cle </td><td> WR50 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 4 </td><td> 134 </td><td> Cockcroft </td><td>Carson Palmer, Oak </td><td> QB18 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 5 </td><td> 135 </td><td> McCormick </td><td>Jacquizz Rodgers, Atl </td><td> RB52 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 6 </td><td> 136 </td><td> Gramling </td><td>Rashard Mendenhall, Pit </td><td> RB53 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 7 </td><td> 137 </td><td> Cwalinski </td><td> Bears D/ST </td><td> D/ST4 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 8 </td><td> 138 </td><td> Joyner </td><td>Alex Smith, SF </td><td> QB19 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 9 </td><td> 139 </td><td> Bell </td><td> Steelers D/ST </td><td> D/ST5 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 10 </td><td> 140 </td><td> Karabell </td><td>Bernard Scott, Cin </td><td> RB54 </td></tr></tbody></table>

ROUND 15

<table><thead><tr><th> Pick </th><th> Overall </th><th> By </th><th> Player </th><th> Pos Rank </th></tr><tbody><tr class="last"><td> 1 </td><td> 141 </td><td> Karabell </td><td> Eagles D/ST </td><td> D/ST6 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 2 </td><td> 142 </td><td> Bell </td><td>LaMichael James, SF </td><td> RB55 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 3 </td><td> 143 </td><td> Joyner </td><td>Alex Henery, Phi </td><td> K1 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 4 </td><td> 144 </td><td> Cwalinski </td><td>Mikel Leshoure, Det </td><td> RB56 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 5 </td><td> 145 </td><td> Gramling </td><td>Brian Quick, StL </td><td> WR51 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 6 </td><td> 146 </td><td> McCormick </td><td> Seahawks D/ST </td><td> D/ST7 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 7 </td><td> 147 </td><td> Cockcroft </td><td> Jets D/ST </td><td> D/ST8 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 8 </td><td> 148 </td><td> Hunter </td><td>Mike Williams, TB </td><td> WR52 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 9 </td><td> 149 </td><td> Harris </td><td> Falcons D/ST </td><td> D/ST9 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 10 </td><td> 150 </td><td> Lipscomb </td><td> Bills D/ST </td><td> D/ST10 </td></tr></tbody></table>

ROUND 16

<table><thead><tr><th> Pick </th><th> Overall </th><th> By </th><th> Player </th><th> Pos Rank </th></tr><tbody><tr class="last"><td> 1 </td><td> 151 </td><td> Lipscomb </td><td>Stephen Gostkowski, NE </td><td> K2 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 2 </td><td> 152 </td><td> Harris </td><td>Mason Crosby, GB </td><td> K3 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 3 </td><td> 153 </td><td> Hunter </td><td>David Akers, SF </td><td> K4 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 4 </td><td> 154 </td><td> Cockcroft </td><td>Sebastian Janikowski, Oak </td><td> K5 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 5 </td><td> 155 </td><td> McCormick </td><td>Matt Prater, Den </td><td> K6 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 6 </td><td> 156 </td><td> Gramling </td><td>Garrett Hartley, NO </td><td> K7 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 7 </td><td> 157 </td><td> Cwalinski </td><td>Dan Bailey, Dal </td><td> K8 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 8 </td><td> 158 </td><td> Joyner </td><td>Bernard Pierce, Bal </td><td> RB57 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 9 </td><td> 159 </td><td> Bell </td><td>Rob Bironas, Ten </td><td> K9 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 10 </td><td> 160 </td><td> Karabell </td><td>Robbie Gould, Chi </td><td> K10 </td></tr></tbody></table>



Rounds 14-16 analysis: As the draft wound down with the typical slew of D/STs and final-round kickers, the interesting choices were whom, if any, the backup quarterbacks would be. The biggest name among the experts' No. 2 quarterbacks was Tim Tebow going to Harris in the 14th round. "I simply think Tebow must be taken in any sized draft," Harris said. "He's my pick to lead the Jets in rushing TDs this season, and he doesn't necessarily need to start many games at QB to do it."


McCormick was the lone expert to intentionally avoid drafting a second quarterback behind Brady, remaining consistent from Mock 1 when Peyton Manning was his lone signal-caller. "Given the shallow nature of a 10-team league, I believe suitable backups for a bye week can be found, as guys like Joe Flacco and Alex Smith went undrafted in the May draft," McCormick said. "Given another shot, I'd likely invest in a backup for Peyton, but with Brady, I'd likely just roll the dice and make a wire addition or minor trade for a backup at some point during the season."


Cockcroft chose a TE2 (Brent Celek) in the May mock, leaving Eli Manning as his only quarterback, but he changed his tune in Mock 4, backing up Tony Romo with Carson Palmer. "First mock, the quarterbacks out there stunk," Cockcroft said, "and let's face it, Eli has played every single game for years, while Tony Romo has missed time in the past. No doubt in my mind that Romo's need for an actual backup exceeds Manning's, and I just happened to like Palmer in that final 'real' round (non-K or D/ST rounds) comparative to what else was out there at other positions. In the Eli case, I'd just grab whatever I could find off waivers in-season for his bye week. Frankly, worrying about quarterback bye-week subs is absurd. It's like trying to pick playoff-week matchups or which defenses will rank where in a given year. So much changes, isn't it smarter to draft value to the bench and worry about backups later?"


When asked to compare their Mock 1 teams to their Mock 4 squads, with seven starting skill positions listed, I figured most of the experts would think they had better drafts this time around. But four of the eight chose Mock 1.

KARABELL:
Mock 1 (1st pick) -- Vick, Foster, McGahee, A.J. Green, R. White, Gonzalez, S. Smith
Mock 4 (1st pick) -- P. Manning, Foster, Charles, Jennings, Colston, Gonzalez, Sproles



"I definitely like my team from Mock 4 better. Nothing against Vick, but the RB/WR depth on the second team is superior, and it wouldn't shock me if Peyton Manning outscores Vick anyway. When you pick first overall, and it is a joyous thing, you still need a second running back in the Round 2/3 turn."

BELL:
Mock 1 (9th pick) -- Brees, Forte, F. Jackson, V. Jackson, Colston, V. Davis, Sproles
Mock 4 (2nd pick) -- E. Manning, Rice, S. Jackson, Nicks, S. Smith, V. Davis, De. Thomas


"I like the potential of my Mock 4 team more, but my first team I like for PPR, especially given where my draft position was. In the end, I'd rather field the second team because I think they give me a better chance to win each week. I also like my receivers better on the Mock 4 team."

JOYNER:
Mock 1 (8th pick) -- Romo, Chr. Johnson, Mathews, J. Jones, Bowe, A. Hernandez, Richardson
Mock 4 (3rd pick) -- Rodgers, Murray, R. Bush, Welker, J. Nelson, Witten, Austin


"I definitely prefer the team from Mock 1 due to its RB depth. It also reflects one of the oddities of drafting this year -- getting a later pick in the first round is actually preferable to getting an earlier pick. The main reason for that is there are, by my count, 13 QBs/RBs/WRs who are true difference-makers in this year's draft. If a team has an early first-round pick, they will get only one of those players, but a late first-round pick can allow a team to get two of those players."

CWALINSKI:
Mock 1 (2nd pick) -- Stafford, R. Rice, Charles, J. Nelson, Lloyd, F. Davis, Decker
Mock 4 (4th pick) -- Vick, McCoy, McFadden, De. Jackson, T. Smith, Graham, Bradshaw


"I like my Mock 1 team more than Mock 4. The earlier team is more balanced, as I have good RBs and WRs along with a top-five QB. I like my Flex and TE more on the newer team, but I am a little worried about my wide receivers. They should be decent, and could be very good, but could also end up being well below average -- if DeSean Jackson has another season like he did last year."

McCORMICK:
Mock 1 (5th pick) -- P. Manning, McFadden, Murray, Cal. Johnson, Marshall, Gates, De. Jackson
Mock 4 (6th pick) -- Brady, Richardson, Hillis, Marshall, D. Bryant, Gronkowski, Decker


"It's close, but I'd have to say I like the Mock 1 team more, given that there is more balance on the roster. The Mock 4 team is better at QB and TE, but the Mock 1 team is better in every other regard and had better overall depth. The team from May doesn't have a stat giant at QB like the recent draft with Brady, but there's reasonable expectation for Manning to be a top-10 option. There is more upside at running back in the first team and wide receiver is also better. One common player is Brandon Marshall, who I really like this year in both standard and PPR formats."

COCKCROFT:
Mock 1 (3rd pick) -- E. Manning, McCoy, Helu, M. Wallace, Nicks, Witten, De. Williams
Mock 4 (7th pick) -- Romo, Chr. Johnson, Peterson, A. Johnson, A.J. Green, Tamme, Lloyd


"Mock 4 easily, but I have the advantage of time. Roy Helu, Mike Wallace, Hakeem Nicks -- they all have more questions today than they did then. I also regard this Mock 4 team as more balanced. I'm not terribly worried that I have a weak spot anywhere but potentially TE. In the first mock, I knew my running back depth wasn't great."

HUNTER:
Mock 1 (4th pick) -- Rodgers, Lynch, Peterson, Cruz, Maclin, Graham, J. Stewart
Mock 4 (8th pick) -- Newton, Mathews, M. Turner, R. White, A. Brown, Gates, Helu
"Give me Mock 4. Although there is a drop-off at QB with Newton and at TE with Gates [from Graham], the overall balance of the Mock 4 club is key to me. There may not be any superstars here, but it's a solid club that will compete each and every week. There are no real holes with this team."

HARRIS:
Mock 1 (6th pick) -- Newton, Jones-Drew, S. Jackson, Fitzgerald, D. Bryant, Finley, R. Bush
Mock 4 (9th pick) -- Stafford, Jones-Drew, Gore, M. Wallace, Harvin, F. Davis, V. Jackson


"They're really close. I guess I'll say I prefer Mock 1 by a whisker, because of advantages at RB2, WR1 and WR2 and TE. It would be very difficult to replicate Mock 1 today, where I got Newton at No. 35 overall. People are coming around to the idea that he's not overvalued in the top 20 overall.


Just like anything in life, the more you practice mocking, the better you get. Not only do you learn from past mistakes, you also figure out where value can be saved. In 10-team leagues, there is enough depth at quarterback and tight end to stockpile running backs and wide receivers. However, with four quarterbacks (Rodgers, Brady, Brees and Stafford) and two stud tight ends (Gronkowski and Graham) worthy of top-20 picks, you could certainly draft one of these monsters and stockpile lesser running backs and wide receivers later. Whatever strategy you decide to go with, always be prepared to adapt. But most importantly, just remember to keep on mocking!

 

[HacheMan]

Underrated 2012 fantasy QBs

Matt Schaub, Carson Palmer among QBs who are being drafted too low

By KC Joyner | ESPN Insider

For many years, fantasy football teams were built around running backs to the point that many owners would rarely consider taking a player at a position other than a running back with one of their first two draft picks.


That mindset may change this season, as current ESPN Live Draft results show quarterbacks being selected with three of the top seven picks and five of the first 17 picks on average.


With the increased cost of quarterbacks, many fantasy owners are going to be looking for undervalued passers who can be had for a relatively low price but have the point potential to far exceed their cost.


Here are six candidates who look to fit that bill:

Matt Schaub, Houston Texans
Average draft position (ADP): 89.7 (ranked 14th among quarterbacks)


The first thought that comes to most fantasy players' minds when Schaub's name is mentioned is injury. This is understandable given that Schaub has played in 11 or fewer games in three of his five seasons in Houston.


While he does have durability concerns, Schaub also has top-flight productivity potential.


Before he got hurt, Schaub was on pace to post a 240-point season despite not having the services of Andre Johnson for six of his 10 games. Only nine passers tallied more than 240 points last season, and if Johnson had been healthy, it's certainly possible Schaub could have moved that number even higher.
<offer><inline1>Schaub didn't miss a game in the two seasons prior to last year, so the injury history of late has actually been more in his favor than against it. Throw in the fact that my draft guide says Schaub has the most favorable schedule of any quarterback in the league, and it means he offers third- or fourth-round point potential for an eighth- or ninth-round pick.

Philip Rivers, San Diego Chargers
ADP: 60.1 (ranked 10th)


As was recently noted in an article detailing why the Chargers should be considered the favorites to win the AFC West, Rivers' perceived drop-off last year was nowhere near as large as generally thought.


He racked up 7.9 overall yards per attempt (YPA), a total that was ninth best in the league and achieved it on 601 attempts (if penalty plays are included). He also accounted for 28 touchdowns, had 216 vertical pass attempts (tied for third highest in the league) and a 12.0 vertical YPA that ranked ninth best.


The Chargers lost Vincent Jackson to free agency, but they still have a very deep wide receiver corps and could be looking at a turnaround campaign from Antonio Gates.


Rivers ended the 2011 season with 12 touchdowns and three interceptions over his last six games and posted 19 or more fantasy points in three of those contests, so he was getting back to his old self by the end of that campaign. That trend is likely to continue this year, and it makes Rivers a steal at pick No. 60.

Alex Smith, San Francisco 49ers
ADP: 119.2 (ranked 17th)

With the roster additions of Mario Manningham, Randy Moss and A.J. Jenkins, and the improved health of Michael Crabtree, it can safely be said that no team in the NFL has done more to upgrade its pass-catching personnel than San Francisco.

That probably won't be enough to vault Smith to the level of a dominant fantasy quarterback, if for no other reason than 49ers head coach Jim Harbaugh operates a run-heavy offense that likely won't allow Smith to tally much more than 500 pass attempts.


Even with that ceiling, Smith's prior history of superb performance shows that he can be one of those rare quarterbacks to post a high YPA total on a relatively low volume of attempts. That makes him a great later-round pick for leagues that have two quarterbacks or give six points for passing touchdowns.

Carson Palmer, Oakland Raiders
ADP: 137.7 (ranked 21st)


In looking for a backup quarterback, wouldn't it be great to have someone who is capable of posting 15 or more points a high percentage of the time?

If that sounds like a good definition for a QB2, Palmer should be on your draft radar screen, because he racked up 15 or more points in six of his nine starts last season.

He was able to do this in part because he ranked fifth in the league in overall YPA (8.3), tied for ninth in vertical YPA (12.0) and ranked eighth in stretch vertical YPA (14.5), as well as placing 11th in ESPN's Total QBR metric.


That Palmer was able to perform at such a high statistical level despite taking over the silver and black offense in midseason is quite extraordinary. With a full offseason under his belt, he should be able to make the adjustment to the Raiders' new West Coast offensive scheme and take full advantage of the stockpile of young receiving talent on the Oakland roster. That makes Palmer another terrific later-round selection for leagues that give six points for passing touchdowns or have two starting quarterbacks each week.

Brandon Weeden, Cleveland Browns
ADP: undrafted (ranked 28th)


In his career at Oklahoma State, Weeden displayed above-average or better showings in overall metrics, consistency, career growth, ability to raise the level of play of those around him and big-game performance.


He is taking the same kind of bull-by-the-horns approach to his new job in Cleveland, and it's just the type of mindset the Browns offense needs to shake itself out of its lethargy.


The state of the Cleveland receiving corps means Weeden may not offer quite enough upside to invest a draft pick in most leagues, but he has ample value as a waiver-wire pick in standard leagues, as a backup quarterback in a deep league or as a QB3 in multiquarterback leagues.


Potential rare value pick

Peyton Manning, Denver Broncos
ADP: 41.4 (ranked 8th)


Manning couldn't be listed with the above picks because his current ADP of 41.4 is generally considered to be a good risk/reward investment level for him.


Having said that, in the most recent ESPN experts' 10-team mock draft, Manning lasted until the end of the eighth round when Team Karabell picked him.


The likely reason he was passed over for so many rounds is a combination of two factors -- the depth of quality quarterbacks in the draft and the recurring concerns over his arm strength. The reports coming out of Denver have basically all had the same theme: Manning is in many ways back to his old form, with the exception of long passes. He still has to prove he can have a bigger impact in the vertical game than he did in his last full NFL season, when he posted a 9.7 vertical YPA that ranked 26th in the league.


Those factors could very well lead to a similar draft-day drop for Manning in many draft rooms and thus place him into the value-pick realm.
</inline1></offer>

 

[HacheMan]

Jackson steady by season, not game

By Jim McCormick | Special to ESPN.com

How much will a transition to a run-first system affect Vincent Jackson's fantasy value with the Bucs?

Vincent Jackson's huge pact with the Buccaneers this past March made him a lot of dollars, but for many fantasy football analysts and fans, it didn't make much sense. The general take was that it can't possibly help that Jackson left a potent and proven San Diego passing attack for a middling Tampa offense coming off of an extremely disappointing 2011 season. Another drawback for Jackson's fantasy prospects seemed to be that the Bucs' offseason overhaul of their coaching staff saw former Rutgers coach Greg Schiano take over the franchise with an expected offensive focus on a physical run-first scheme. There is no doubt that Jackson got quite rich, but major doubts seem to persist over his potential to flourish in pewter.


While we have a pretty strong idea of what kind of talent Jackson is, we've never seen what a Schiano-led NFL team looks like, so we'll have to lean on the early indicators we've been afforded this offseason. Talk of revamping the running attack has been steady since Schiano took over, but there has also been an equally explicit agenda to talk up a newfound dedication to taking shots down the field. It seems to only make sense after investing in an elite big-play threat like Jackson to the roster. The new head coach spoke to the Tampa Bay Times about the risk/reward nature of the deep passing game. "Your return on those shots is not going to be nearly as high as it is on your intermediate and shorter passing game. You'll hit some, and he's hit a couple," Schiano said of quarterback Josh Freeman so far this offseason. "Then he's missed a couple. That's really the risk and return on shot plays. As I always talk about with our team and our staff, one of those plays takes away the need for a lot of plays, a lot of execution, a lot of mistakes. You don't have to deal with the rest of it."


For a team looking to improve its vertical passing game, there are few better wideouts than Jackson for the job. According to ESPN Stats & Information, on throws of 21 or more yards last season, Jackson had 12 catches for 451 yards and five touchdowns. The entire Tampa receiving corps combined for 14 catches for 459 yards and four touchdowns on such throws last season. More than 44 percent of Jackson's career targets have been 15 yards or farther down the field, and since 2010, the average depth of targets to Jackson has been 17.1 yards. As a comparison, Tampa's Mike Williams has an average depth of target of 12.2 yards since joining the league in 2010. The major question is whether Freeman can deliver him the ball down the field after a disappointing 2011 that saw the signal-caller regress in nearly every sense.


Schiano tabbed former Giants quarterbacks coach Mike Sullivan as his offensive coordinator. Sullivan spent the past two seasons helping Eli Manning dramatically cut down on his interceptions from 2010 (25 picks) to 2011 (16 interceptions, a second Super Bowl ring and nearly 5,000 yards passing). So while there will be a rededication to the run in Tampa this season - especially after the Bucs ran the ball just 346 times last season, last in the league and the lowest attempt total in franchise history for a full season - Sullivan does have a pedigree of working with an impressive passing attack in New York. While Freeman was abysmal for much of 2011, there is some buzz rebuilding as he came to camp in great shape and is routinely hooking up with Jackson for big plays. Sullivan also has significant experience working with wideouts, as he was the Giants' receivers coach for six seasons before taking over as QB coach

While Jackson is often deemed as an enigma of sorts given how maddeningly inconsistent his production has been on a week-to-week basis, his numbers are actually quite consistent when considering the year-end totals. Outside of his holdout-shortened 2010 season, Jackson has averaged 62 receptions, 1,123 yards, 8.3 touchdowns and 107 targets a season since his breakout in 2008. That's an elite 18.1 yards per catch. His reception totals have been 59, 68 and 60, in 2008, 2009 and 2011, respectively, while his yardage totals have been 1,098, 1,167 and 1,106. Jackson hauled in nine scores in both 2009 and 2011 and seven touchdowns in 2008. So the knock on Jackson as a fantasy commodity isn't as much about his numbers at the end of each season, but the wild fluctuations in production throughout a given season. Just last season, more than 51 percent of Jackson's fantasy points came in his top three outings, while just over 43 percent of his total yardage came in those top three games, as well as six of his nine touchdowns. Jackson scored double-digit fantasy points six times, but had nine games with six or fewer fantasy points. In those top three outings in Weeks 2, 9 and 11, Jackson averaged 27.6 standard fantasy points. In the following three weeks after each gem, he averaged just 2.3 fantasy points. That's about as boom-or-bust as it gets.


Much like Freeman, after a breakout 2010 effort, Williams had a disappointing 2011 campaign. But we can look to learn from how Williams was used as the team's top target the past two seasons in an attempt to approximate Jackson's usage going forward. Williams averaged 126 targets the past two years, good for 26 percent of all of the targets in the passing game. Jackson, meanwhile, faced steeper competition for attention in San Diego and averaged 115 targets, just over 21 percent of the targets there since 2008, again dismissing his abridged 2010 season. If Jackson can take over the lead as the premier red zone target for Freeman, it could be a big boon to his fantasy prospects, given that Williams saw 29 red zone targets over the past two years while Jackson tallied 23 between his 2009 and 2011 seasons. It's safe to assume that given the steep investment and the talk of opening up the vertical passing game, Jackson will at least match the share that Williams had as the top target in Tampa. But what we are most concerned with is the quality of these targets. It's undeniable that a deep ball from Philip Rivers has proved to be a more accurate and productive attempt than from Freeman, but it's possible that this gap can be mitigated by a greater volume of opportunities for Jackson in Tampa. Jackson is expected to be the premier focus in the passing game, particularly down the field, where he's literally made his money.

In speaking with ESPN's NFC South blogger Pat Yasinskas recently, he explained how Jackson might be used in Tampa this season: "The team lacked a clear-cut No. 1 option at receiver, and with the money they spent on Jackson, they have big plans for him. They'll run the ball much more, but it doesn't have to be at the expense of Jackson, who could become a major red zone weapon for them. Freeman has a big arm; I'm just not sure he's been able to use it yet with the talent there."


Check out the tables below to get a better idea of how Rivers and Freeman have fared passing the ball 20 yards or deeper down the field since 2009, as well as Jackson's consistency.


Philip Rivers, Pass Attempts of 20+ Yds, Since 2009

<table><thead><tr><th> Season </th><th> Att </th><th> Comp Pct </th><th> Yds </th><th> TD/INT </th><th> 30+ Yd Plays </th></tr><tbody><tr class="last"><td> 2009 </td><td> 73 </td><td> 37.0% </td><td> 986 </td><td> 3/3 </td><td> 18 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 2010 </td><td> 55 </td><td> 43.6% </td><td> 898 </td><td> 9/5 </td><td> 14 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 2011 </td><td> 69 </td><td> 36.2% </td><td> 854 </td><td> 10/5 </td><td> 13 </td></tr></tbody></table>Source: ESPN Stats & Information



Josh Freeman, Pass Attempts of 20+ Yds, Since 2009

<table><thead><tr><th> Season </th><th> Att </th><th> Comp Pct </th><th> Yds </th><th> TD/INT </th><th> 30+ Yd Plays </th></tr><tbody><tr class="last"><td> 2009 </td><td> 31 </td><td> 29.0% </td><td> 287 </td><td> 2/4 </td><td> 4 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 2010 </td><td> 61 </td><td> 29.5% </td><td> 664 </td><td> 3/2 </td><td> 12 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 2011 </td><td> 34 </td><td> 35.3% </td><td> 393 </td><td> 3/2 </td><td> 5 </td></tr></tbody></table>Source: ESPN Stats & Information



Vincent Jackson Since 2007 (minus 2010 season)

<table><thead><tr><th> Season </th><th> Targets </th><th> Fantasy PPG </th><th> Pts per Target </th><th> Preseason WR rank </th><th> Final WR rank </th></tr><tbody><tr class="last"><td> 2007 </td><td> 80 </td><td> 4.6 </td><td> 0.91 </td><td> 32 </td><td> 56 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 2008 </td><td> 101 </td><td> 9.4 </td><td> 1.49 </td><td> 47 </td><td> 11 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 2009 </td><td> 106 </td><td> 11.1 </td><td> 1.56 </td><td> 17 </td><td> 9 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 2011 </td><td> 115 </td><td> 10.1 </td><td> 1.41 </td><td> 8 </td><td> 9 </td></tr></tbody></table>Source: ESPN Stats & Information



The cost for Jackson in fantasy drafts last season seemed to have factored in an expected breakout, with him vaulting from a valuable, if inconsistent, deep threat into the realm of true superstar. While the breakout has never really materialized -- whether on account of a series of lingering injuries or simply because of the nature of a player who makes his plays far down the field, where success rates deflate -- Jackson is no longer priced to be a No. 1 fantasy wideout. Heading into 2012, he's priced and projected as the 19th wide receiver, with an ADP of 54.6.


Some are down on Jackson in Tampa, while others -- me included -- think the reasonable expectations for increased work could more than buffer the costs of transition. The inconsistencies could persist, but at least the price finally factors into this element of his game. It's simply a part of his profile that Jackson will win you some weeks, while in others leave you wanting. Everything from the team, scheme, quarterback, coaching staff and contract is different for Jackson, but for him to provide a reasonable return on investment this season, he simply needs to do what he's always done.

 

[HacheMan]

Good to see Peyton back in action, but ...

Eric Karabell

The last time Peyton Manning had thrown a football in an NFL game of any sort was Jan. 8, 2011, in a playoff loss to the New York Jets. That's a really long time ago, and in that span, the four-time NFL MVP and future Hall of Famer underwent numerous procedures on his neck, leaving his future in doubt. With the Indianapolis Colts clearly in his rearview mirror and the future of the Tim Tebow-less Denver Broncos now squarely in his hands, Manning did indeed throw a football Thursday night against the Chicago Bears.




In fact, Manning threw the ball multiple times, eight times in all, although one completion was wiped away because of a holding penalty. Well, he looked fine to me, but did we really learn anything?


<offer>Those considering whether to select the polarizing Manning in a fantasy draft for the next week or more are going to have to do so based more on faith than on anything we saw Thursday night, when Manning was 4-for-7 for 44 yards, with one of the incompletions being a Brandon Stokley-tipped interception. It was one series, a good one, but it doesn't really lead us to a reasonable conclusion about whether he can return to the top of the fantasy heap. It's a tad ironic that Manning is being selected eighth among quarterbacks (and 40th overall) in ESPN average live drafts. Eighth? Now Manning is merely average? If anything, he seems like the ultimate wild-card selection, capable of being among the best or just incapable of playing. Sleeper or bust, you choose.''</offer>
<offer></offer>
<offer>My take on what to do with quarterbacks in fantasy drafts hasn't altered much over the years. While I marvel at the fine work of Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady and Drew Brees, there's very little chance these guys will be on my teams this season. They're awesome, of course, but I don't want to be stuck with LeGarrette Blount or Jordan Shipley in my starting lineups, either. I'm going heavy on running backs and wide receivers the first five, six, maybe even seven or eight rounds, and spending big on those spots in auction formats. I don't care whether everyone else in the draft has chosen their signal-caller. I see more than 10 names worthy of starting anyway. In an ESPN mock draft held this week, I was the last one to pick a quarterback. It was Peyton Manning, and it was with the last pick of the eighth round.


That's just ridiculous value to get a quarterback with his potential, but the mistake I made in that mock was not getting one of the top backups at that position. I wouldn't be at all surprised if Manning throws for 4,500 yards and 30 touchdowns, as ESPN Fantasy projects, but let's not be naive, either. We don't know what will happen the first time a defensive lineman or linebacker crushes him. That's not likely to happen in a meaningless August tilt. It might not happen at all, since Manning releases the football so quickly. My advice on Manning, whom I rank 10th among quarterbacks, or exactly where he went in this week's mock, is to secure a Matt Ryan, Ben Roethlisberger or Matt Schaub to back him up. Any of those guys is a capable week-in, week-out starter, each underrated but undervalued in drafts because fantasy owners don't need them as starters in 10-team formats.


Manning looked fine Thursday in his one drive, nearly leading the Broncos to a touchdown. Frankly, it was good to see him playing again, odd that it was for a new team, and my thoughts were more about whether his young wide receivers will be able to play up to Manning's lofty level this season. It should be noted that Manning wasn't babied, as most starting quarterbacks are the first week of preseason action. While it's true that organized team activities and training camp and any amount of practice cannot possibly replicate real-game action, it's similarly difficult to equate a series or two in a preseason game to the all-out bedlam that ensues when the games count in September. It's just a fact. By Week 3 of the preseason, we hope to see Manning play extensively, but I have few doubts about performance.


Even if we see Manning having perfect timing next week with his throws, and he connects on multiple touchdown passes to wide receivers Demaryius Thomas and Eric Decker and overlooked tight end Jacob Tamme, it's going to be all about the health, and that's something we just will not know. I don't question the skills or the potential for chemistry with new teammates, and even though this is a different offense, with a decent running back in Willis McGahee and certainly no prime Reggie Wayne on the roster, I think the numbers will be there. Colleague KC Joyner discussed Manning on Thursday in his article about underrated fantasy quarterbacks, although he pointed out that Manning hardly excelled in the vertical game his last season, suggesting the deep pass is something to watch early this season. In Denver, chances are he'll need to make those throws and the weaponry could be there, and I'm not going to bet against his arm.


The bottom line on Manning is it will take some leap of faith -- and smart planning -- to choose him in the first five rounds of a draft. That doesn't mean he can't be a top-five quarterback. He certainly can resume greatness. It was often said that San Diego Padres Hall of Fame outfielder Tony Gwynn could fall out of bed in the morning and hit a baseball. That's how I feel about Manning throwing a football, even after a lengthy layoff. There's clear risk, of course, that Manning's potential pains in his neck will set him back and have a similar effect on fantasy owners, but that's not something we can learn on one mid-August drive.
</offer>

 

[HacheMan]

Choosing between Bryant, Austin

By Jim McCormick | Special to ESPN.com

Which Cowboys wide receiver will have the better fantasy season: Dez Bryant or Miles Austin?

In this era of prolific passing attacks, it has become a common dilemma in fantasy to decide between talented tandems of wideouts who play for the same team. The Giants, Packers, Falcons, Patriots, Eagles and Cowboys all boast dynamic duos at the position. In some of these scenarios it's clear -- at least in terms of average draft position (ADP) and projections -- which receiver is expected to be the better fantasy option, but in others, particularly in Dallas, it's difficult to discern the wiser investment as we sit on the doorstep of the 2012 campaign.


When deciding between Dez Bryant and Miles Austin, fantasy managers are evaluating these commodities in a specific draft range; in most standard drafts, you'll find the Dallas duo available between the late fourth round and the early sixth. Bryant is currently going as the 15th wide receiver on average in ESPN live drafts with an ADP of 43.7, while Austin is landing as the 18th receiver on average and 54th overall. Bryant finished 18th at the position in ESPN standard leagues in 2011 with 139 points, while Austin's injury-marred season left him as the 39th fantasy wideout with 97 points. There are valid arguments for each player as the more promising prospect for 2012, just as there are legitimate cases against each player.

In their short time working together, quarterback Tony Romo and Austin have formed what is likely the most prolific pass-and-catch duo of undrafted players in the league's history. On a Sunday afternoon in Kansas City nearly three years ago, with Roy Williams sidelined due to a rib injury, Austin burst onto the NFL and fantasy football scenes with a dominant performance that saw him haul in 10 catches for 250 yards and two scores. It was a breakout game that led to a breakout 2009 season, establishing Austin as one of the game's young elites at the position in just a matter of months. Since that breakout effort, Romo and Austin haven't been able to consistently connect, with injuries disrupting their chemistry. Austin was averaging 118.5 yards and 7.8 receptions and had two touchdowns in the first four games of 2010 before Romo broke his collarbone in Week 5. Paired with veteran journeyman Jon Kitna for the remainder of 2010, Austin saw his production decline, resulting in a disappointing fantasy campaign.


Then last season, the duo of undrafted stars started the season gangbusters once again, with Austin posting 14 receptions, 233 yards and four scores in his first two games before a hamstring injury that first surfaced in training camp last summer returned in overtime of Week 2 versus San Francisco. Austin was never the same in 2011, sitting out for six games (over two stretches) due to the hammy issue. With 11 100-yard games since 2009 and a proven penchant for the big play, there is little doubt that Austin can produce when he and Romo are healthy. One element that could help with Austin's prospects in PPR leagues going forward is the fact that he lined up in the slot on just over 55 percent of his snaps in 2011, and has been deployed in a similar fashion in sets in training camp. Health, however, remains a continued concern, as Austin is currently dealing with an ailing hamstring that cropped up in camp on Aug. 5.



If we have enduring concerns about Austin's ability to stay on the field, it's Bryant's off-the-field behavior that might be the red flag in the way of his promising career. While Bryant's arrest this July was his first as a professional, he has inspired great concern for the Cowboys' brass with a series of off-the-field issues and has, by many accounts, carried himself immaturely and unprofessionally since being drafted in the first round in 2010. It's unclear if a suspension from Roger Goodell awaits Bryant, but many insiders close to the situation feel that it would be a one-game punishment, if anything. Bryant, for his part, also has some injury history that merits mentioning. He is also dealing with a hamstring injury at the moment, although he doesn't have the distressing history with such injuries that Austin does. Bryant dealt with numerous nagging injuries in his rookie campaign, which was cut short by a month by a broken ankle, and he endured a quad injury early last season that saw him miss one game. The cause for zeal over Bryant's potential comes from when he's at his best on the field and can appear unstoppable on particular plays. The counter to this is a lack of consistent execution and what some might say is inconsistent effort. Just last season, Bryant never topped 90 yards in a given game or 15 fantasy points in any single contest. In 27 NFL games, he has topped 100 yards just once, despite what scouts tab as dominant potential. There are some indicators, however, that suggest Bryant is capable of reaching his vast potential. With nine scores in the red zone on just 21 career red zone targets, he's quite a scoring threat given his otherworldly ability to adjust in the air and leverage his size and athleticism when coverage is at its tightest.


Dez Bryant, Past 2 Seasons


<table><thead><tr><th></th><th> Austin Active </th><th> Austin Inactive </th></tr><tbody><tr class="last"><td> Games </td><td> 21 </td><td> 6 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> Targets PG </td><td> 6.3 </td><td> 7.2 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> Receptions PG </td><td> 3.9 </td><td> 4.5 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> YAC per Rec </td><td> 5.3 </td><td> 2.7 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> TD </td><td> 10 </td><td> 5 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> Red Zone Targets </td><td> 17 </td><td> 5 </td></tr></tbody></table>Source: ESPN Stats & Information



Miles Austin, Past 2 Seasons


<table><thead><tr><th></th><th> Bryant Active </th><th> Bryant Inactive </th></tr><tbody><tr class="last"><td> Games </td><td> 21 </td><td> 5 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> Targets PG </td><td> 7.0 </td><td> 8.6 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> Receptions PG </td><td> 4.3 </td><td> 4.4 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> YAC per Rec </td><td> 5.3 </td><td> 7.7 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> TD </td><td> 9 </td><td> 5 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> Red Zone Targets </td><td> 21 </td><td> 8 </td></tr></tbody></table>Source: ESPN Stats & Information



While both players inspire valid degrees of concern, they also both have youth, undeniable talent and a capable quarterback on their side. The absence of Laurent Robinson, who finished as the 15th wide receiver in ESPN standard leagues last season with 145 fantasy points, can only serve to increase the attention that both Bryant and Austin will receive from Romo. Austin has averaged 7.2 targets per game over the past two seasons, while Bryant averaged 6.7 last season and nearly 7.2 when Austin was inactive in 2011. If we assume that a good percentage of the Robinson targets will be shared amongst this duo, both should average more than seven targets per contest. This isn't a feast-or-famine scenario where only one wideout can "eat" this season; as the premier threats in a potent passing game likely to surpass 500 attempts, both players can realistically be projected to top 70 receptions and 1,000 yards with a quality share of scoring opportunities.

<!-- END INLINE MODULE --><!-- end inline 1 -->While it's not unreasonable to expect somewhat similar statistics for this duo, I'd prefer to invest in Bryant for 2012. Bryant is a player I value as the greater talent with an immense burden to prove that he's a valuable long-term asset to not just Dallas, but to the NFL. Austin has the better track record in terms of statistical precedent in this league, but he's not without his warts given that hamstring issues are known to persist (particularly for speed players). While Bryant didn't exactly dazzle last season, he was still a solid No. 2 option and established a healthy floor for production, falling just shy of the per-game fantasy point clips of A.J. Green and Brandon Marshall. Bryant is simply a superlative talent, one possibly bested only by a handful at the position (Calvin Johnson, Larry Fitzgerald, Green, Julio Jones and … not sure who else). While inherent risk is associated with Bryant -- both in terms of a possible suspension and some durability concerns -- fantasy football is about balancing the risk and reward of investments in players, and few bear as much potential reward as I see it. Austin remains a very capable No. 2 fantasy receiver, but I have some doubts if we'll see him return to the No. 1 perch he established in that brilliant '09 stretch. Even in a vacuum, expecting both to play the full 16 this fall, I'm banking on Bryant to yield a greater return.

 

[HacheMan]

Weekend: Luck shines, Charles returns

Eric Karabell

While new Denver Broncos quarterback Peyton Manning was one of the main attractions when the NFL preseason opened Thursday night -- and Manning didn't disappoint -- the enduring quarterback performance of the weekend likely came in the lone game Sunday.



That's when Manning's replacement with the Indianapolis Colts, top overall draft pick Andrew Luck, threw a touchdown pass on his first attempt and finished with 188 passing yards and two scores in a resounding 38-3 win over the St. Louis Rams.

<offer>With this being the preseason, veteran fantasy owners should know better than to overrate any statistics. Those who didn't watch Luck's performance might not be aware that his first touchdown salvo, a 63-yarder to running back Donald Brown, came on a screen pass in which Brown did most of the work. Luck completed 10 of 16 passes, with another touchdown to wide receiver Austin Collie, who was targeted by Luck five times. Entering Monday, the only quarterbacks with more passing yards this preseason are backups Chase Daniel of the New Orleans Saints and Jarrett Lee of the San Diego Chargers. Their starters, Drew Brees and Philip Rivers, need not be concerned.</offer>


Luck, however, is a starter from day one and is going 19th among quarterbacks in ESPN average live drafts, which seems about right. Will he move up this week because of his debut? Well, he shouldn't pass Andy Dalton and probably shouldn't be going ahead of Joe Flacco, Carson Palmer and Ryan Fitzpatrick, but those who really enjoyed his work at Stanford might be tempted to jump the gun. ESPN Fantasy projects 3,408 passing yards and more interceptions than touchdowns from Luck this season. Colleague Christopher Harris discussed the top rookies in this video, noting the risk of relying on an inexperienced signal-caller.


We'll keep an eye on Luck's ADP over the next week and beyond. If anything, the performances of Brown and Collie seem more interesting and potentially relevant, especially for a team that isn't expected to have a top defense. Brown is the highest-ranking Colt in ADP, going 98th overall, and he certainly had a few relevant moments in the second half of 2011. Collie's breakout 2010 was shortened by repeated concussions, but he could be enticing in PPR formats. It's premature to move any Colts up your list following Sunday's game, but each of these three at least merit attention.


As for the rest of the weekend news, the biggest story was the broken clavicle suffered by San Diego Chargers running back Ryan Mathews, which ESPN Fantasy has covered extensively. Here are some other notes of interest from a busy preseason weekend:

• Minnesota Vikings running back Toby Gerhart averaged 6.2 yards on five carries in San Francisco on Friday night, but that news paled in comparison to the team activating superstar Adrian Peterson from the PUP list, clearing him for practice this week. It's not likely Peterson will suit up this week, but fantasy owners likely will presume this means all is well with Peterson's recovery. I'm willing to be as optimistic as anyone, but Gerhart should remain in the top 100.


• Speaking of returning from ACL surgery, Kansas City Chiefs running back Jamaal Charles had 23 yards on three carries and a reception Friday night. It wasn't as statistically impressive as what new Chief Peyton Hillis accomplished (4 carries, 41 yards, receiving touchdown), but it was good to see Charles overcome his first hit, which happened to be to the left knee in question. He popped right up as if his knee had never been damaged.


• In the same game, Arizona Cardinals running back William Powell broke a 67-yard run and scored on a two-yarder, finishing with 92 rushing yards on nine totes. Powell and Alfonso Smith are the leading contenders for fourth string among the Arizona running backs, behind Beanie Wells, Ryan Williams and LaRod Stephens-Howling; the first two didn't suit up as they recover from knee injuries. Unless Wells and Williams aren't ready for September, this isn't a situation worth watching.


• Meanwhile, Philadelphia Eagles backup quarterback Mike Kafka broke his left hand Thursday night and probably won't play again this preseason. Rookie Nick Foles threw a pair of touchdown passes and could pass Kafka on the depth chart. This matters because starter Michael Vick last played 16 games in a season in 2006. Vick injured his left thumb Thursday but is expected to practice this week and start the second preseason game, next Monday at New England.

 

[HacheMan]

NFC Camp Coverage
I wouldn't trade the Rotoworld readership for any in the fantasy sports industry. In close to five years with this Time's Top-50 Website, I've received roughly a handful of negative emails per year. Those few emailers registering at the complaint department can be broken into three primary categories: 1. Tebow Haters 2. Tebow Lovers 3. Why no love for (fill in the blank)?



The Tebow emails can easily be chalked up to the lunatic fringe. The "Why no love for X" emails are generally accompanied by accusations that Rotoworld has an agenda and a bias. To which I reply, "Of course we do. It's our entire justification for existence." If Rotoworld had a mission statement, it would essentially be, "We exist to tell you which fantasy players you should and should not own." Our team of football writers watches the games, tracks depth chart changes and injuries, hunts down local and national news and puts a bloodhound onto the trail of breakout players so you can concentrate on your day job with no concern that the other owners in your league are gaining inside information.



If we advocate for or against a player, it's to give you an edge on your competition. There's no incentive for Rotoworld to withhold "love" from your favorite player unless we believe that player will lead your fantasy squad to its demise.



In other words, there is a Rotoworld bias. I've been a devoted daily reader since the early days of AllStarStatsInc. over a decade ago, long before I started with the company. Along the way, I formed many strong opinions and developed potent instincts, thanks in large part to Rotoworld's analysis and new scroll. Once I started writing in these pages, the most emphatic guidance Gregg Rosenthal ever directed my way was to ensure that the news blurbs remain opinionated, knowledgeable and entertaining whenever possible. Maintain a strong stance on a player's outlook for those readers too busy with family obligations and TPS reports to dissect the offerings of beat writers and NFL insiders.



That said, I confess there's always been a small part of me more inclined to lead the reader to the information, letting each fantasy owner jump to conclusions or nurture hunches of his or her own volition. Let's face it, even the most astute among those of us paid to distill advice won't nail sleepers, busts, breakout stars and impact rookies with 100 percent accuracy. Who's to say the opinions you've formed in doing your own homework won't lead to more success than the so-called experts' recommendations?



It's with that breed of fantasy owner in mind that I've compiled a list of the most reliable sources so you can track each NFL team during training camp and preseason action. If you remain hesitant to jump into the Twitter fray, check out the newspapers and blogs in the meantime. The NFC team links are below; Click here for last week's AFC links.



NFC East



Dallas Cowboys



Twitter: @toddarcher, @clarencehilljr, @calvinwatkins, @BryanBroaddus, @DCStarJEllis, @RickGosselinDMN, @tom_orsborn, @dmn_george, @DavidMooreDMN, @NFLCharean, @espncowboysblog, @nickeatman, @espn_macmahon, @mattmosley, @DMNRainerSabin, @derekeagleton, @calexmendez, @CBSSportsNFLDAL, @espn_nfceast, @dallascowboys

Primary Coverage: ESPN Dallas, Fort Worth Star-Telegram, Dallas Morning News, San Antonio Express-News, Dallascowboys.com, Fox Sports Southwest

Blogs: Dallascowboys.com Bryan Broaddus, Star-Telegram Cowboys Corner, Morning News Cowboys Blog, Express-News Cowboys Blog, ESPN Dallas Todd Archer, ESPN Dallas Calvin Watkins, ESPN NFC East Blog, CBS Sports Rapid Reports, SB Nation Blogging the Boys, CBS Dallas/Fort Worth



New York Giants

Twitter: @RVacchianoNYDN, @MikeGarafolo, @NotoriousOHM, @NYPost_Schwartz, @TomRock_Newsday, @art_stapleton, @Patricia_Traina, @jorgeccastillo, @ErniePalladino, @CBSSportsNFLNYG, @giantspathanlon, @ebenezersamuel, @giantseisen, @espn_nfceast, @Giants

Primary Coverage: New York Daily News, Newark Star-Ledger, ESPN New York, New York Post, Bergen Record, Newsday, New York Times, Giants.com

Blogs: Daily News The Blue Screen, Post Giants Blog, Record True Blue, Newsday T-Rock’s Take on the Giants, ESPN New York Ohm Youngmisuk, ESPN NFC East Blog, SB Nation Big Blue View, SNY.TV Giants, Giants.com Blog, CBS Sports Rapid Reports


Philadelphia Eagles

Twitter: @RoobCSN, @Jeff_McLane, @geoffmosher, @Tim_McManus, @SheilKapadia, @caplannfl, @LesBowen, @ZBerm, @howardeskin, @pdomo, @BobGrotz, @JordanRaanan, @NickFierro, @lawlornfl, @CBSSportsNFLPHI, @espn_nfceast, @TheRealDGunnCSN, @DZangaro, @davespadaro, @EaglesInsider, @Eagles

Primary Coverage: CSN Philly, Philly Mag Birds 24/7, Philly.com: Philadelphia Inquirer & Daily News, Wilmington News Journal, Phillyburbs.com, Philadelphiaeagles.com, Allentown Morning Call, Delaware County Daily Times, LeHigh Valley Express-Times

Blogs: Inquirer Birds’ Eye View, Daily News Eagletarian, Philadelphiaeagles.com Insider, CSN Philly Eagles Insider, News Journal Wing Tips, The 700 Level, Burbs 4th and 26 Blog, Morning Call Eagles Insiders, DelCo Times Eagles Blogger Room, ESPN NFC East Blog, CBS Sports Rapid Reports, SB Nation Bleeding Green Nation, Iggles Blitz, CBS Philly


Washington Redskins

Twitter: @Rich_Campbell, @john_keim, @TarikElBashir, @MikeJonesWaPo, @RussellMania980, @grantpaulsen, @Insider, @Rich_Tandler, @ZacBoyer, @CBSSportsNFLWAS, @davidelfin, @barrysvrluga, @JReidPost, espn_nfceast, @ChickatCSN, @Redskins

Primary Coverage: Washington Post, Washington Times, CSN Washington, Washington Examiner, Fredericksburg Free Lance-Star, Redskins.com

Blogs: Times Redskins Watch, Post Football Insider, CSN Washington Redskins Talk, ESPN 980 Chris Russell, Free Lance-Star Redskins Journal, Real Redskins, ESPN NFC East Blog, CBS Sports Rapid Reports, Redskins.com Blog, SB Nation Hogs Haven, Burgundy Blog, CBS DC



NFC North


Chicago Bears

Twitter: @seankjensen, @BradBiggs, @danpompei, @vxmcclure23, @CSNMoonMullin, @BobLeGere, @ZachZaidman, @mikecwright, @ESPNChiBears, @bynhayes, @AdamHogeCBS, @CBSSportsNFLCHI, @espn_nfcnblog, @ChicagoBears

Primary Coverage: Chicago Tribune, Chicago Sun-Times, CSN Chicago, ESPN Chicago, Arlington Heights Daily Herald, Chicagobears.com

Blogs: Sun-Times Inside the Bears, CSN Chicago Bears Insider, Chicagobears.com Write Now Blog, Daily Herald Bear Essentials, Tribune Dan Pompei, ESPN NFC North Blog, CBS Sports Rapid Reports, SB Nation Windy City Gridiron, CBS Chicago


Detroit Lions

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[HacheMan]

The polarizing Michael Turner

Fantasy value of Falcons RB in 2012 source of much debate

By Fantasy Staff | ESPN.com

Is Michael Turner being undervalued in fantasy drafts?


It was one of the most heated debates of our annual fantasy football summit, one with compelling arguments on either side.

It was also one of the most polarizing. The facts are there in black and white. Come summit's conclusion, we "agreed to disagree" and placed Michael Turner 16th among running backs, 37th overall. But you can be sure, members of neither camp -- the pro- and anti-Turner sides -- were celebrating that rank.


That's why, as "Decisions 2012" shifts its focus to Michael Turner's fantasy prospects, we're taking a different approach. We've asked two of our most fervent Turner backers, Ken Daube and AJ Mass, and two of our most vehement Turner detractors, Tristan H. Cockcroft and Jim McCormick, to weigh in.


With which analyst do you agree? Read on, and we'll see which side of the fence you settle on at the end.


Cockcroft: History is not on Turner's side



Fantasy football is a game of odds. We know that the NFL can be an unpredictable game, bereft of guarantees.


As fantasy owners, therefore, our goal is to play the percentages, draft players with the highest probability of success, and hope we catch the right breaks.


Unfortunately, history says that Turner's odds aren't especially good, that running backs typically suffer a steep decline at approximately age 30 … the birthday Turner celebrated on Feb. 13. At some point -- some point soon, say the history books -- the odds say that Turner's production will suffer a dramatic drop.


You do not want to be left holding the bag when it happens.


The pro-Turner crowd will stress that he has more tread on his tires than a typical 30-year-old, that four years working as a backup with the San Diego Chargers, totaling 228 carries, has kept his legs somewhat fresh. They'll point out that 57 players in NFL history had more than Turner's 1,417 carries by their 30th birthdays, describing it as if he's a 30-year-old with a 28-year-old's legs.


While it might be true that Turner's odds of a collapse are smaller than that of a 30-year-old with a greater amount of career usage -- think Edgerrin James or LaDainian Tomlinson -- they're also substantially greater than that of a 28-year-old with equal wear and tear to the four-year, 1,189-carry workload Turner has endured with the Atlanta Falcons. The truth is that any 30-year-old running back, regardless of style, role or workload, faces a historical pattern that indicates a probable 15 to 20 percent drop in production.


To illustrate, consider that the 10 running backs closest to Turner's career carries total at the time of their 30th birthdays averaged a 94-point seasonal fantasy total. That represents a 57-point drop from their seasonal averages as 28-year-olds.


To illustrate it another way, one even more relevant to Turner's example, I isolated from my all-time age-30 study players whose seasonal rushing attempt trends most closely followed Turner's career patterns. The chart below lists the 13 closest career comparables to Turner in descending order of their similarity ("Sim. score"), illustrating how each fared as a 30-year-old.



<style type="text/css">.mod-inline td img {margin: 0px;}</style><table style="margin: 0px; width: 100%;"><thead><tr><th style="vertical-align: bottom;"> </th><th style="vertical-align: bottom;"><center> </center></th><th style="vertical-align: bottom;" colSpan="3"><center>Career thru age 25</center></th><th style="vertical-align: bottom;" colSpan="3"><center>Ages 26-29 seasons</center></th><th style="vertical-align: bottom;" colSpan="3"><center>Age 30 season</center></th></tr></thead><tbody><thead><tr><th style="vertical-align: bottom;">Player </th><th style="vertical-align: bottom;"><center>Sim.
score</center></th><th style="vertical-align: bottom;"><center>Years</center></th><th style="vertical-align: bottom;"><center>Rush
Att.</center></th><th style="vertical-align: bottom;"><center>FPTS
/G</center></th><th style="vertical-align: bottom;"><center>Years</center></th><th style="vertical-align: bottom;"><center>Rush
Att.</center></th><th style="vertical-align: bottom;"><center>FPTS
/G</center></th><th style="vertical-align: bottom;"><center>Year</center></th><th style="vertical-align: bottom;"><center>Rush
Att.</center></th><th style="vertical-align: bottom;"><center>FPTS
/G</center></th></tr></thead><tbody><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;">Adrian Murrell</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">89</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">'93-95</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">259</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">4.1</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">'96-99</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">1068</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">8.5</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">'00</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">20</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">0.7</td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;">Larry Johnson</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">86</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">'03-04</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">140</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">9.8</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">'05-08</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">1103</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">16.2</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">'09</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">178</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">3.9</td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;">Terry Allen</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">84</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">'91-92</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">386</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">9.7</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">'94-97</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">1150</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">12.7</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">'98</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">148</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">8.2</td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;">James Wilder</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">81</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">'81-83</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">351</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">9.4</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">'84-87</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">1068</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">12.4</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">'88</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">86</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">6.9</td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;">Willie Parker</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">80</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">'04-05</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">287</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">7.9</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">'06-09</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">966</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">9.5</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">'10</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" colSpan="2" align="center">Did not play</td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;">Cedric Benson</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">78</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">'05-07</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">420</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">5.9</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">'08-11</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">1109</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">9.9</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" colSpan="3" align="center">2012: ???</td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;">Stephen Davis</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">76</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">'96-99</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">488</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">7.0</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">'00-03</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">1213</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">12.4</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">'04</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">24</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">5.5</td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;">Herschel Walker</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">75</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">'86-87</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">360</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">15.3</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">'88-91</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">993</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">11.2</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">'92</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">267</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">10.9</td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;">Thomas Jones</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">74</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">'00-03</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">499</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">4.9</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">'04-07</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">1160</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">10.6</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">'08</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">290</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">14.1</td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;">Jim Taylor</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">72</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">'58-60</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">402</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">8.7</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">'61-64</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">998</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">16.1</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">'65</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">207</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">7.6</td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;">Tiki Barber</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">71</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">'97-2000</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">463</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">7.6</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">'01-04</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">1070</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">13.5</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">'05</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">357</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">18.3</td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;">Lydell Mitchell</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">69</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">'72-74</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">512</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">8.0</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">'75-78</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">1093</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">14.1</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">'79</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">63</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">3.1</td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;">Chris Warren</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">65</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">'90-93</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">513</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">4.4</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">'94-97</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">1046</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">11.9</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">'98</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">59</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">6.8</td></tr><thead><tr><th style="vertical-align: middle;">Turner</th><th style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"><center> </center></th><th style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"><center>'04-07</center></th><th style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"><center>228</center></th><th style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"><center>2.5</center></th><th style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"><center>'08-11</center></th><th style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"><center>1189</center></th><th style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"><center>13.8</center></th><th style="vertical-align: middle;" colSpan="3" align="center"><center>2012: ???</center></th></tr></thead></table>




These 12 most similar running backs -- excluding Cedric Benson, who has yet to play his age-30 season -- collectively lost 31 percent of their per-game fantasy production and played 25 percent fewer games as 30-year-olds than they did during their ages 26-29 "workhorse" seasons. Only four -- Barber (293), Jones (225), Walker (174) and Taylor (107) -- managed a 100-point fantasy season at age 30.


Now, I'll readily admit that shrinking a larger sample size -- my past age-30 studies have examined more than 100 players -- to a mere 13 presents dangers. Turner's is a unique case, not necessarily perfect parallels to Murrell, Johnson or Allen. But neither is it fair to selectively compare him to only Walker, Jones or Barber. The upshot is that this group, as a whole, exhibits identical aging trends to the entire pool of 30-year-old running backs in history. There will always be outliers, but the lesson is clear: Every running back faces overwhelming odds against maintaining career production at age 30.


Couple that with Turner's history of late-season decline, a point that colleague Jim McCormick will detail below, as well as the Falcons' own recognition of the need to curtail Turner's workload in 2012, and there's little question that his downside exceeds his fantasy upside.


That's not to say Turner shouldn't be picked at all, not in an era in which running production across the league has dropped. But come the time of his No. 34 overall average draft position, I'd prefer Fred Jackson, if I must choose a running back, otherwise I'd advise looking at another position (Julio Jones?).


Daube: The bias against the predictable



I love statistics and will usually side with the mathematics portion of the argument, but sometimes common sense needs to be injected into the discussion. Using a group of 13 running backs to determine how the 14th will react is very questionable mathematically.


For instance, the closest comparable in Cockcroft's study is Adrian Murrell. Murrell averaged only 2.9 yards per carry when he was 29 and signed with another team to be a backup at age 30. The second most similar, Larry Johnson, shouldn't really be viewed as comparable, either. Johnson had two amazing seasons and then became a malcontent, which culminated in him getting cut after seven games in the 2009 season. His age 26-29 split is very misleading as he dominated the NFL at ages 26 and 27, but was a below-average back by the time age 28 rolled around. When significant holes can be poked into the reasoning for the inclusion of a small sample size, the sample size becomes too small to be mathematically viable and it therefore become illogical to base decisions on that data.

Turner's detractors will also note that his performance during the second half of last season dropped compared to how he started. They'll claim it's indicative that his age finally caught up with him and he wore down. In my view, that decline was probably significantly more attributable to the quad and groin injuries he played through during that time frame. Even with that diminished production because of those injuries, Turner finished with 4.5 yards per carry and tied with Marshawn Lynch with 203 fantasy points, the fifth highest total for running backs last season.


This argument shouldn't really be about Turner's age or muscle pulls that occurred last season. It should be about his value this season. Our team projects Turner to score 183 fantasy points, a total that would have been good for sixth last season, but we rank him 16th among running backs. That difference is mostly attributable to the fact we aren't projecting injuries, but the reality is that the only injury that has kept Turner off the field was a high ankle sprain that occurred when his leg was awkwardly landed on by a linebacker, so his risk for missing games due to injury is low.


I personally believe that a bias exists in fantasy football that elevates those who excel unexpectedly (see: Lynch, Marshawn) rather than those who meet expectations (Turner), even if at the end of the day their performance is comparable. I believe that bias is manifested in the ranking of Turner this season and I look forward to exploiting those rankings on draft day.


McCormick: Cracks in the foundation



We've witnessed Turner's production erode in the later stages of the past two seasons. In September 2010, Turner averaged 5.6 yards per carry (YPC) and in December 2010 just 3.4 YPC, while in September of last season his YPC was 4.89 and in December just 3.5. In Atlanta's three playoff losses since 2008, he's averaged just 2.8 YPC.


Whether these dips in effectiveness and efficiency over the past two seasons are due to age, mileage, poor blocking and play calling, injuries or some blend of these factors is difficult to discern, but the results are disconcerting nonetheless.


It's not lost on the Atlanta coaching staff that their bell cow has worn down the past two seasons, and particularly in the playoffs, where jobs are on the line. New offensive coordinator Dirk Koetter has talked up the idea of sharing the workload more, with a focus on getting second-year speedster Jacquizz Rodgers the ball to operate in space.


"We need to keep Mike healthy so that he's as good at the end of the season as he is in the front of the season," Koetter told the Atlanta Journal-Constitution this summer. "The way this roster has been built, we have some other backs that are very capable."

With an extremely limited role in the passing offense, the team asks Turner to churn out yardage on first and second downs to help set up manageable third downs. A red flag in this regard is that while Turner had, according to ESPN Stats & Information, the second most carries in the NFL on first-and-10 with 165, he was stopped for no gain or negative yardage on 50 of those. That 30.3 percent "no gain" rate was the worst in the NFL among the 33 running backs with at least 70 carries on first-and-10 last season.


In his role as an early-down back, Turner's production on first downs wasn't impressive when compared to his peers who played similar roles on their teams. In what is expected to be an increasingly confined early-down role for Turner in 2012, will these issues with gaining positive yardage on first down compel the team to pass the ball more on early downs and share the rushing work more, cutting into his work?


It's a murky market for tailbacks, but Turner's case isn't adding much clarity to the talent pool. I'd rather invest in ADP peers Fred Jackson and Darren Sproles, but really prefer wideouts in that range and favor netting multiple upside backs like Peyton Hillis, Isaac Redman and Doug Martin later in drafts.


There is no denying that Turner remained quite effective in 2011 with more than 1,500 total yards and 11 scores, but it should be equally undeniable that there are some numbers beyond the season totals that suggest cracks are forming in his foundation as a feature back.


It's not that I'm predicting a cliff is just a few yards off, but there are some forming fallibilities that we should acknowledge. Getting stuffed behind the line, having what grades out as a middling run-blocking offensive line, wearing down at the end of the past two seasons (when fantasy seasons and Atlanta's playoffs hopes are decided) and having increased competition for work are legitimate factors to consider.


Mass: No evidence the end is nigh



Haven't we heard this song before? Last year in the preseason, the Atlanta Falcons said they were going to try to cut back on Michael Turner's workload. How did that work out? All Turner did was carry the ball 301 times, second only to Maurice Jones-Drew in all of the NFL. Oh, and where has Dirk Koetter been coaching since 2007? That's right, in Jacksonville.


I'll believe that Turner gets the ball less when I see it.


As for "when" Turner gets the carries, I don't see the big deal. So what if he primarily touches the ball on first and second downs? He was fourth in the league in rushing yards on first down last season and second on second downs. I'm not losing any sleep over the 15 carries he'll miss out on if the team decides never to play him on third or fourth downs all year long. To me, this is a non-issue.


What boggles my mind is that we're looking at a running back in Turner who has proven over the past four seasons to be one of the most productive in all of football, yet his ADP in ESPN standard leagues thus far ranks him as the 15th running back off the board. Only 10 backs have averaged at least 70 rushing yards per game with at least 40 starts since Turner became a regular starter, and at 89.5 yards per game, Turner finds himself behind only Adrian Peterson (91.7 ypg) and Chris Johnson (89.6 ypg) on this elite list.

Are you seriously telling me that you'd put Turner behind every single one of these backs being taken ahead of him: Trent Richardson (a rookie with bad knees), Steven Jackson (a greater injury risk and also could see carries stolen by Isaiah Pead), Jamaal Charles (surgically repaired knee), Darren McFadden (too many injuries to count), Adrian Peterson (just taken off the PUP list, returning from a torn ACL) and DeMarco Murray (seven career starts and coming back from a broken ankle)?


I'm not saying some of these guys won't end with more fantasy points than Turner, but most of them probably won't. Even with only 17 receptions last season, Turner still finished fifth in fantasy scoring among running backs. As the NFL has become more and more a passing league, Atlanta has consistently won by keeping the ball on the ground. In games where Turner has rushed for more than 100 yards, the Falcons are 22-3. When Matt Ryan passes for more than 300 yards, they're 4-6. I don't care if Roddy White and Julio Jones are both on the roster. This team can throw for more than 4,000 yards, just as they did last season, and Turner's production won't change at all. That's why I will absolutely be ranking Turner as a top-10 back for the 2012 season.


Look, at the end of the day, you can crunch the numbers and make all sorts of valid arguments both pro and con regarding every single player on the draft board, just like the four of us just did on Michael Turner, who for whatever reason, ended up being one of the most polarizing names at our ranking summit this year.


However, when you're on the clock, you have a very limited amount of time to make your final decision on which player to select. Even after working hard to give you our honest opinion on how we think Turner will do this season, the fact remains that none of us is 100 percent certain we're right. That's what makes fantasy football such a fun endeavor. Players can and often do surprise you. But we all believe we're right and will act accordingly on our own draft days.


My best advice to you is to get as much information as you can on as many players as you can. See which arguments move you the most and when all is said and done, trust your instincts and go with your gut. And when you ultimately decide to pass on Michael Turner, just remember I told you so.

 

[HacheMan]

Benson's fantasy value with Packers

Eric Karabell

Football players still looking for work in mid-August really can't be too choosy, but if new Green Bay Packers running back Cedric Benson was looking for a place where he could produce statistics similar to what he accomplished the past few seasons with the Cincinnati Bengals, and be on a winning team, he might have actually picked the right place. Of course, Benson's goal when he signed with the perennially contending Packers probably had more to do with finding a job and potentially performing in January (and February) than making fantasy owners pleased, but it's possible everyone can win here.

We all know that for the Packers it all starts with awesome quarterback Aaron Rodgers and his many receiving weapons. While the running game wasn't much of a factor last season, that could certainly have been due to a lack of faith in the unexciting running back corps. Benson is no superstar -- not by any means. But he is capable of providing draft-worthy statistics, as only 22 running backs provided more standard fantasy points last season. While some simply presume Benson enters a timeshare with underwhelming James Starks, I look at the glass half-full and wonder if perhaps Packers coach Mike McCarthy sees something else.


Anyone remember Ryan Grant? No, not the 2011 version that was a shell of his former self, but the 2007-2009 version that was more than competent for, again, a pass-first, Rodgers-led (for two of those seasons) team? Benson, as plodding as he appears to look most of the time, averaged 1,143 rushing yards and six touchdowns the past three seasons.


Grant produced consecutive 1,200-yard rushing seasons in 2008 and '09, before serious leg injuries ruined his 2010 and certainly appeared to restrict him last season, when rushing duties were shared. Grant, who is currently a free agent (making the fact that he was bypassed for Benson even more interesting), averaged 297 rushing attempts in those two seasons. And before that, as a rookie in 2007, he averaged 5.1 yards per carry and scored eight touchdowns. Frankly, I think Benson has an interesting opportunity here to be … like the old Ryan Grant.


That's not worth a ton in fantasy football, but it certainly does matter. Grant in his prime was better than Benson, but the sheer volume of rushing attempts (the result of little backfield competition) and goal-line chances helped form his numbers. Similarly, Benson doesn't have to be a great player to either earn carries or produce fantasy value, which is why he enters my top 35 running backs immediately, someone I'd consider near Round 8 of a standard draft, and certainly ahead of Starks. Frankly, being only top 35 is a bargain and I'm likely to move him up the next few weeks; a year ago at this time, Benson, for all his warts, was a seventh-round choice in 2011 ADP and 26th among running backs, one spot after … Grant.


It's certainly possible the pass-heavy Packers don't give Benson or Starks considerable work, blunting the individual statistical value of each. Perhaps Hawaii product Alex Green, recovering from an ACL tear, becomes a factor as well. Yes, the Benson signing could have merely been for depth. Or he could be getting 275-plus carries this season. For all the talk about Starks, and his draft status has certainly been bolstered by the offense around him, his regular-season career consists of one touchdown and nary a 100-yard rushing performance. Benson is a workhorse who topped 100 rushing yards three times last season and scored six touchdowns.


McCarthy probably didn't tip his hand when he told reporters Benson "has played in a one-back system the past three years. And it's clearly evident that we've evolved more to a one-back system as a starting point for the way we play." Now, a one-back system can be shared by multiple running backs, but I expect Benson to be the top option and Starks to fight for a reserve role. The Packers needed an upgrade at running back, and say what you will about Benson, but he's been consistent and reliable the past few seasons. Like Ryan Grant used to be.

 

[HacheMan]

Preseason Tale of the Tape
Preseason games are largely meaningless, but they can provide us with clues when it comes to usage, depth chart position, and performance quality after we sift through the trash. Cam Newton's 2011 preseason stats and ball movement were pathetic, but he stood tall in the pocket and didn't run when his first read was covered. Coming out of Auburn's read-option, run-first offense, that was a hidden, but promising sign. If you watched Jimmy Graham's 2011 preseason, you knew he was poised for an explosion. Graham was a fixture in New Orleans' first-team offense all August, and emerged as Drew Brees' favorite target when the real games began.

Each NFL team has at least one preseason game in the books. (The Cardinals and Saints have two.). I picked four quarterbacks, three running backs, three receivers, and two tight ends to review for this column. I watched and charted every snap they played and made observations.

Let's get to them:

Quarterbacks

Robert Griffin III, Redskins
Stats: 4-of-6 for 70 yards and a touchdown; one rush for no yards.

Recap: NFL.com charged Griffin with a fumble on a botched handoff, although the ball bounced off Evan Royster's belly and was clearly his running back's fault. Royster acknowledged as much after the game. Griffin played 13 snaps against the Bills, showing composure, not once leaving the pocket to scramble, and getting the football out quickly on pass plays. RG3 targeted Pierre Garcon four times, completing three. The fourth should have been good for a first-down pickup, but Garcon failed to drag his second foot in bounds along the left sideline. (On second thought, Garcon did get two feet down and the bad call was on the replacement refs.) Griffin also hooked up with Leonard Hankerson for a 12-yard gain. The two incompletions were the fault of others; the fundamental Garcon referee error and a drop by Niles Paul accounted for the only "missed" throws. Griffin's 20-yard touchdown to Garcon came on a nifty wide receiver screen.

Takeaways: The sample size was small and the game plan simplistic, but RG3 impressed most by doing everything right he's allegedly done wrong in camp. He didn't hold onto the ball too long once, and displayed accuracy and touch on short to intermediate throws. Griffin showed tremendous velocity on a 20-yard rocket ball to Garcon over the middle, after a play-action fake. I want to see more of Griffin, but this was a nice first impression. He looks ready to play in the NFL.

Jake Locker, Titans
Stats: 7-of-13 for 80 yards; no rushes.

Recap: Matt Hasselbeck completed 5-of-9 attempts for 45 yards and two interceptions. Hasselbeck didn't play as poorly as the box score suggests, but the Titans left their first-team offense in for Locker's first series, getting him action with the starters. All in all, Locker played 17 snaps. Locker's ball placement can be erratic, but he continued to demonstrate impressive zip on intermediate throws, hooking up with Kendall Wright for gains of 15, 14, and 18, as well as Marc Mariani for 13 yards. Two passes were dropped by receivers, one by blocking TE Craig Stevens and another by Chris Johnson. The Titans noticeably ran more empty-back sets with Locker in the game than they did with Hasselbeck, frequently sending four and five players into pass routes.

Takeaways: Locker earned the opportunity to start Tennessee's second exhibition game by avoiding turnovers in the opener, an area in which he's also outperformed Hasselbeck in camp. Whereas Locker has thrown just two interceptions in team drills, Hasselbeck has thrown eight, not including preseason stats. Locker brings more big-play potential to the offense because he has superior arm talent and athleticism. If Locker is also playing more efficiently, the starting job will be his.

Ryan Tannehill, Dolphins
Stats: 14-of-21 for 167 yards and a touchdown; one five-yard rush.

Recap: Tannehill relieved Matt Moore (7-of-12 for 79 yards and an interception) after two possessions in Miami's preseason opener. Albeit against Bucs backups, the rookie was terrific on 27 snaps. He stood coolly in the eye of the storm, not reacting to pressure and easing calmly through his progressions. Perhaps most impressively, Tannehill elevated the performance of his teammates, consistently giving Julius Pruitt, Roberto Wallace, and Charles Clay considerable run-after-catch opportunities. Tannehill would have had a second touchdown if not for official overturn of his seven-yard scoring pass to Wallace, made on a missile throw between three defenders.

Takeaways: Tannehill has a big arm and big-time athleticism, and the big leagues aren't too big for him, if the exhibition opener was any indication. He made Pruitt look like a slot machine inside the numbers, and Clay look like Antonio Gates down the seam. It's only a matter of time before Tannehill ascends into the starting lineup. I think that will happen sooner rather than later.

Peyton Manning, Broncos
Stats: 4-of-7 for 44 yards and an interception; no rushes.

Recap: Manning played 11 snaps in Denver's preseason opener at Soldier Field. For a 36-year-old battling back from four neck surgeries, he looked pretty good. Manning put mustard on a third-and-17 pass to Eric Decker that went for a gain of 19, and his interception probably should have been handled by intended target Brandon Stokley, although the throw was a hair behind the Broncos' slot receiver. Manning got sound protection from his offensive line, but he did not challenge Chicago's defense deep. He targeted Decker twice and Jacob Tamme twice.

Takeaways: Manning showed that he can still rip it on throws to intermediate sections, and that's a positive sign. We still haven't seen him connect on vertical passes downfield. He had an 11-yard hookup with Demaryius Thomas called back by penalty, and later overshot Thomas in the back right corner of the end zone. Manning looked alright at Chicago. I still want to see more.
<!--RW-->

Running Backs

Chris Johnson, Titans
Stats: Five rushes for eight yards; no catches.

Recap: Johnson played 13 offensive snaps against Seattle, which fielded one of the league's top run defenses in 2011. The Seahawks appear poised to keep it up, often getting backfield penetration on Johnson's rushing attempts in the preseason opener. Johnson was tackled for a loss twice and held to two yards or fewer on two of his other five carries. The fifth run went for nine yards on a cutback, inside zone play. Johnson didn't display much acceleration or elusiveness, although it's difficult to confidently evaluate him when Johnson really had room to run just two or three times. Johnson did drop his two pass targets, both on screen play attempts.

Takeaways: I want to see more of Johnson this preseason, but he did nothing against Seattle to suggest he's headed for a rebound year. Johnson needs to get better in the passing game in a hurry because the Titans are opening up their offense. Already a poor pass blocker, unreliable hands could cost Johnson significant snaps. The Titans can pull him for Javon Ringer.

Evan Royster, Redskins
Stats: Seven rushes for 21 yards; no catches.

Recap: Competitor Roy Helu rushed four times for 17 yards and lost three on his lone reception. Helu played strictly with the second-team offense, while Royster took every first-team tailback snap in the opener (13 in all). Royster's depth chart positioning was promising against the Bills, but his on-field play wasn't. Royster lost a fumble on Washington's sixth play from scrimmage and continued to show little to no burst and acceleration. He gained 12 yards on an outside zone run and five on another inside zone play, but was held to three yards or fewer on each of his other five carries. He was not targeted in the passing game, nor asked to pass protect.

Takeaways: Redskins coaches seem infatuated with Royster as a potential workhorse runner, but he's going to have to play better than this to keep the job. And Royster will always be an ordinary talent, so he must compensate with error-free football while soaking up every blocked yard. One thing we can say confidently: Washington's 2012 run game will be productive with dual-threat Robert Griffin III at quarterback in the zone-blocking scheme. The adventure of pinpointing which runner will lead the backfield in carries remains a work in progress. No one has stepped up.

Doug Martin, Buccaneers
Stats: Seven rushes for 21 yards and a touchdown; one catch for seven yards.

Recap: Competitor LeGarrette Blount rushed seven times for 30 yards and a touchdown. Blount dominated first-team carries on Tampa's opening drive in Miami, with Martin functioning as the designated third-down back. The rookie executed on a third-and-two carry on a draw play, and successfully cut block a blitzer on third-and-four. The Bucs pulled their starters after the first possession and Martin was an every-down back on the second drive, running behind the Bucs' second-team line while facing the Dolphins' starting defense. He busted a tackle for a gain of ten and caught a pass in the flat for a gain of eight. It took Martin three tries, but he dove over the pile for a goal-line touchdown to cap Tampa's second possession. Martin wound up playing 11 snaps.

Takeaways: Blount ran hard and productively enough that he deserves continued long looks from the coaching staff. He is a physical runner and can wear down a defense. Martin's versatility has already earned him clear-cut passing-down back duties, however, and he'll at least have a share of early-down work early in the season. I thought Martin played very well, making no mistakes in the preseason opener. He will be a major, major factor in the Bucs' 2012 offense.

Wide Receivers

Austin Collie, Colts
Stats: Three catches for 45 yards and a touchdown.

Recap: Andrew Luck played four possessions and attempted 16 passes in Indianapolis' preseason opener against St. Louis. No Colts pass catcher saw more of Luck's targets than Collie (5). Although Collie didn't play in one-receiver sets, the Colts used him all over the formation on 17-of-20 first-team snaps. He lined up at X receiver six times, worked in the slot on seven occasions, and was the Z wideout on four plays. Collie gained ten yards on a drag route on Indy's sixth play from scrimmage, and Luck found Collie for a 23-yard touchdown on a flag route five plays later. Lined up at flanker on the Colts' final possession, Collie picked up 12 yards on a dig.

Takeaways: New Colts offensive coordinator Bruce Arians appears to be using Collie like he once did Antonio Brown. The ability to play multiple positions will help Collie get open, and he's always been underrated in the red zone (16 touchdowns, 16 career starts). I think there's a good chance Collie will emerge as Luck's top target this season. His current ADP is the 14th round.

Kendall Wright, Titans
Stats: Three catches for 47 yards.

Recap: Wright played 23 snaps in Tennessee's preseason opener against Seattle, seeing three targets and securing all three for gains of 15 (slant), 14 (curl), and 18 (slot route). Although Wright played extensively with Matt Hasselbeck's group, each of his targets came from "second-teamer" Jake Locker. Wright appeared to line up at the outside X position on 21 of his snaps. I saw him in the slot just twice. Wright looked willing to go over the middle and played fast and physical, racking up yards after the catch. It was clear that Wright is an explosive football player.

Takeaways: Wright is playing the featured position in OC Chris Palmer's system, where Kenny Britt would be lining up were he healthy and an accountable player. While he's clearly still learning Palmer's complex offense -- Wright is not yet involved in every personnel grouping -- he appeared to be a natural moving around the formation and getting open on a variety of patterns. I think there is reason to believe Wright will lead the Titans in receiving, especially if Locker starts.

Roberto Wallace, Dolphins
Stats: Four catches for 71 yards.

Recap: Although Wallace has been in the league for two years, I'd never really seen him before this. He's been a special teamer. Wallace played 30 snaps against the Bucs and at 6-foot-4, 225 was an inviting target for Matt Moore and Tannehill. Playing Z receiver -- Chad Johnson's position -- Wallace secured a 21-yard pass from Moore on a slant, and hooked up with Tannehill for gains of 19 (touch pass), 13 (slant), and 18 (skinny post) on the second-team offense. Wallace appeared to be a relatively stiff receiver short on quickness, but he got open regularly against Bucs backups and isn't afraid to grab the football in traffic. He also came off as a strong blocker.

Takeaways: In addition to his 71 yards, Wallace had a touchdown called back on replay. He is a big wide receiver who's paid his dues and now has an opportunity to play extensively on offense. With Johnson out of the picture, Wallace has ascended to No. 1 on the depth chart at Z receiver in Dolphins training-camp practices. He's someone to keep an eye on in deep leagues.

Tight Ends

Jacob Tamme, Broncos
Stats: One catch for 12 yards.

Recap: Tamme played seven snaps in the Broncos' preseason opener against the Bears, lining up five times on the line of scrimmage and as an in-line blocker twice. He was curiously left on the sideline for all of Denver's first-quarter red-zone series, exiting in favor of Joel Dreessen and slot receiver Brandon Stokley. Tamme was targeted twice, the first broken up by Bears WLB Lance Briggs and the second caught after being tipped into the air by Bears SLB Geno Hayes.

Takeaways: I thought it was pretty clear that Tamme will be Denver's "move" tight end, lining up often in the slot and focusing on the passing game. He did not embarrass himself as a blocker, though. Still, it's a bit concerning that Tamme wasn't involved in the red-zone possession. He's not going to score many touchdowns if he doesn't earn a job in those personnel groupings.

Jordan Cameron, Browns
Stats: Two catches for 58 yards.

Recap: The Browns' first-team offense played 14 snaps in the preseason opener against Detroit. Cameron was on the field for 11 of them, working as an in-line tight end on nine and a slot weapon on two. He stayed in with Colt McCoy's group and played seven more snaps, mostly on the line. Cameron gained 16 yards on a swing pass from Brandon Weeden, and made a highlight-reel catch for a 42-yard pickup down the seam on a throw from McCoy. Cameron also gave strong effort as both a pass and run blocker. He's clearly a very good athlete with pass-catching skills.

Takeaways: It should be noted that Ben Watson (undisclosed) was inactive for this game. So Cameron got the nod as the Browns' primary tight end. There is speculation in Cleveland that Watson's roster spot may be in danger going on age 32 with a $2.88 million salary. If Watson gets cut, the athletic Cameron could take over as an every-down tight end. A basketball player at USC, Cameron has Jimmy Graham-like measurables and has already bypassed Evan Moore. I'd recommend grabbing Cameron in dynasty leagues and putting him on the TE2 radar in re-draft settings.

 

[HacheMan]

<table border="0" cellPadding="0" width="255" align="left"><tbody><tr><td>

</td></tr></tbody></table>Favorite Fliers
The vast majority of reader questions I receive at this time of year revolve around the top-12 picks. That’s confusing to me.

The first round is the most overanalyzed and vetted portion of the draft. Even casual players know all there is to know about Arian Foster, Calvin Johnson and Aaron Rodgers. The projected difference between these players is so marginal that the thoughtful, informed fantasy player doesn’t gain an edge.

On the other hand, the later portions of drafts serve as our chance to shine. If you read the tea leaves and used an 11th-round pick on Jordy Nelson instead of Donald Driver last year, you had a great shot at championship glory. The same can be said if you took a chance on Aaron Hernandez as your TE2 instead of Ben Watson.

I call these picks “fliers.” They are essentially the lottery tickets we take between Rounds 11 and 14 of a 16-round draft. We target talented, athletic, high-upside players that need a couple breaks to go their way in order to emerge. If it doesn’t happen, we move on early in the season. If we hit, we have a potential season-changing asset.

For this column, a flier must have an ADP (average draft position) of 115.0 or later, as defined by the ADP report in our Draft Guide. That means guys like Ronnie Hillman, Jared Cook, Kevin Smith and David Wilson are out. I also didn’t include the handcuffs I discussed in last week’s column, such as Isaiah Pead and Rashad Jennings. Bang it here to read more about those guys.

So here we go with the 2012 Favorite Fliers, listed in order of how badly I want them.

1. TITUS YOUNG, WR, LIONS - ADP 117.6
Right now, the Lions receivers in two-wide sets are Calvin Johnson and Nate Burleson. But as Mike Clay showed us in this highly useful column, they used three-plus wideout packages 58 percent of the time last season. And with Jahvid Best/Mikel Leshoure a mess, they could be spreading it out even more. Young has been the absolute star of Lions camp, proving impossible to guard thanks to his speed. The second-year man will quickly be pushing the 31-year-old Burleson for snaps in those pesky two-wide formations.

2. RANDALL COBB, WR, PACKERS - ADP 143.2
Much like Titus Young, Cobb embodies the main qualities we look for in a wideout flier. He is young and brimming with talent. He plays in one of the game’s best passing offenses. And there are old players ahead of him on the depth chart. As we’ve stated plenty of times before all over this site, the Packers are going to have a very hard time keeping Cobb off the field.

Editor's Note: For constantly updated rankings, projections, chats, exclusive columns, player profiles and much more, check out the 2012 Draft Guide!

3. EVAN ROYSTER, RB, REDSKINS - ADP 139.4
Royster probably won’t be a true “flier” by the time it’s said and done. Tim Hightower (ACL surgery) isn’t close and Roy Helu has taken a clear backseat in the coaching staff’s eyes. That makes Royster the unquestioned starter in a Shanahan running game, and we all know what that means. Even if Royster’s pedestrian talent prevents a season-long stranglehold on the job, he’s well worth a long look.

4. JAKE LOCKER, QB, TITANS - ADP 171.8
Locker’s ADP will soar if/when he officially beats out Matt Hasselbeck. The Titans are shifting to a pass-happy offense and once Kenny Britt (knee, suspension) gets on the field, they’ll have some really potent weapons. Locker brings an aggressive, rocket arm and speed/fearlessness in the running game -- assets that often lead to heaps of fantasy points.

5. BRANDON LAFELL, WR, PANTHERS - ADP 157.1
Last year, starter Legedu Naanee and backup LaFell combined to catch 80 passes for 1,080 yards and four touchdowns. This year, Naanee is in Miami and LaFell has locked up the No. 2 receiver job opposite Steve Smith. He’s an athletic every-down wideout in an aggressive passing offense led by Rob Chudzinski and Cam Newton.

6. KYLE RUDOLPH, TE, VIKINGS - ADP 140.8
Rudolph goes 6’6/258. He also has a monstrous catch radius, strong hands and crisp route-running ability. The Notre Dame product is finally over his 2010 hamstring surgery, which is a big reason he’s been the unquestioned star of Vikings camp. Meanwhile, Christian Ponder is showing serious signs of life, John Carlson has a knee injury and Rudolph is getting work as a “move” tight end.

7. AUSTIN COLLIE, WR, COLTS - ADP 153.8
We originally thought that Collie would strictly be a slot receiver, only playing in three-wide sets. Nope. The Colts are using a two-tight end formation as their base and are deploying Reggie Wayne and Collie as their outside receivers in those sets. In other words, Collie is going to be an every-down player in a situation where the passing game should pile up stats.

8. KENDALL WRIGHT, WR, TITANS - ADP 144.1
There are a lot of reasons to like Wright. First and foremost, he’s a special talent playing in an offense that is shifting heavily toward the pass. Furthermore, he lit up offseason workouts while learning all three wideout positions and there are a ton of question marks surrounding Kenny Britt (knees, suspension). The Titans are going to need Wright to be an every-down player, especially early on.

9. ANDREW LUCK, QB, COLTS - ADP 160.8
Luck is not Joe Montana. But in his preseason debut against the Rams on Sunday, he went 10-of-16 for 188 yards and two touchdowns during four possessions. Luck is ready to play at a high level in the NFL right now, just as everyone suspected. Also, the Colts are going to be trailing in a lot of their games, offensive coordinator Bruce Arians is a quarterback’s dream and they play in a passing-friendly dome.

10. DWAYNE ALLEN, TE, COLTS - ADP N/A
Coby Fleener may be Andrew Luck’s boy from Stanford, but Allen is making more waves in camp and going much later in fantasy drafts. He’s operating out of the “F” spot in the offense, the same position that Aaron Hernandez plays in the Patriots’ two-tight end sets. He’s also a former basketball star turned tight end, often a path for NFL success.

11. BERNARD SCOTT, RB, BENGALS - ADP 158.9
The Bengals haven’t viewed Scott as a back that can carry the load. Last year, they gave him a couple series per game in relief of Cedric Benson -- who they knew wasn’t a quality back anyway. The difference this year is that BenJarvus Green-Ellis comes in with even less of a pedigree than Benson. The two backs are already under the assumption that they’ll share the load.

12. BILAL POWELL, RB, JETS - ADP 188.8
At the ultra-thin running back position, we’re grasping at straws late. Powell isn’t the most talented guy in the world, but beating out Shonn Greene and Joe McKnight isn’t exactly like climbing Mt. Everest. Powell has some pass-catching ability and can be a pounder as well. With the Jets set to ground-n-pound once again, the 2011 fourth-round pick should be able to carve out a role.


HONORABLE MENTION
Santana Moss, WR, Redskins -- The rare aging veteran flier. Moss has slimmed down and regained quickness in an effort to be Robert Griffin’s go-to guy out of the slot.

Alex Green, RB, Packers -- James Starks has turf toe, Cedric Benson can’t play and Green is the best pass-catcher of the group anyway.

Carson Palmer, QB, Raiders -- The arm strength is back and Palmer has plenty of weapons to work with. They also figure to be in a ton of shootouts thanks to a rancid defense.

Emmanuel Sanders, WR, Steelers -- Just in case Mike Wallace decides to stretch his holdout through the first 10 games of the regular season a la Vincent Jackson.

 

[HacheMan]

2012 Fantasy Football Mock Draft 5

Ten-team league, two-QB setup with standard scoring

By AJ Mass | ESPN.com

As the old saying goes, there's more than one way to skin a cat. When it comes to coming up with a system of rules for a fantasy football league, there are many options at your disposal. Although ESPN has its own standard set of rules, we recognize that those are by no means universal.


With that in mind as we continue our journey through the mock draft season, our goal is to sample a wide variety of formats, and this latest foray into the draft room throws the wrinkle of a two-QB starting lineup into the mix. What effect will this extra starting slot have on the pecking order? As you'll shortly see, it indeed makes quite a difference.


The participants for this exercise, which utilized the scoring rules for ESPN standard leagues, in a randomly determined first-round order were: Eric Karabell, Christopher Harris, Matthew Berry, Stephania Bell, Jim McCormick, Dave Hunter, Tristan H. Cockcroft, James Quintong, KC Joyner and me.



Here's a complete round-by-round breakdown of our selections. As usual, I'll try to outline what my thought process was each time my turn came around, as well as reach out to some of my colleagues regarding some of the more interesting picks they made.


ROUND 1

<table><thead><tr><th> Pick </th><th> Overall </th><th> By </th><th> Player </th><th> Pos Rank </th></tr><tbody><tr class="last"><td> 1 </td><td> 1 </td><td> Karabell </td><td> Arian Foster, Hou </td><td> RB1 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 2 </td><td> 2 </td><td> Harris </td><td> Aaron Rodgers, GB </td><td> QB1 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 3 </td><td> 3 </td><td> Berry </td><td> Tom Brady, NE </td><td> QB2 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 4 </td><td> 4 </td><td> Bell </td><td> Drew Brees, NO </td><td> QB3 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 5 </td><td> 5 </td><td> McCormick </td><td> Ray Rice, Bal </td><td> RB2 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 6 </td><td> 6 </td><td> Hunter </td><td> LeSean McCoy, Phi </td><td> RB3 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 7 </td><td> 7 </td><td> Cockcroft </td><td> Matthew Stafford, Det </td><td> QB4 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 8 </td><td> 8 </td><td> Quintong </td><td> Cam Newton, Car </td><td> QB5 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 9 </td><td> 9 </td><td> Joyner </td><td> Chris Johnson, Ten </td><td> RB4 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 10 </td><td> 10 </td><td> Mass </td><td> Calvin Johnson, Det </td><td> WR1 </td></tr></tbody></table>




Round 1 analysis: Although Arian Foster still makes it off the board to Karabell in the No. 1 position, this round is dominated by quarterbacks, as one might suspect in this format. Typically quarterbacks are going to score more points than players at any other position. In fact in 2011, eight of the overall top-10 point-earners in ESPN standard scoring were QBs.


Given that there are 10 owners, two starting QBs per owner, plus a bye week for both that behooves one to draft a third QB as a fill-in and a pool of only 32 full-time No. 1 starters from which to pull, it's hard to argue against selecting your first signal-caller in Round 1.


Quintong, as he put it, went swinging for the fences with Cam Newton at No. 8 overall. "Obviously, the two-QB format seems to push more quarterbacks earlier in the draft, and potentially moves a few decent running backs and receivers slightly lower in the draft than we usually expect." If Newton comes even close to approaching last season's numbers, the risk here will be worth it.


My bookend picks: Calvin Johnson and Matt Forte. I decided not to take a quarterback here, as I was already frozen out of the top five names, though I would have happily claimed Newton had he been there. Since that didn't happen, my hope was that by claiming the top wide receiver and a top running back I could avoid falling way behind at either of these positions while I watched the next 18 names fly off the board. I was hoping that nobody would grab their second quarterback over that stretch and, as such, I'd still be able to have a top-10 QB to go along with Megatron and Forte. That's a great foundation to build on.


ROUND 2

<table><thead><tr><th> Pick </th><th> Overall </th><th> By </th><th> Player </th><th> Pos Rank </th></tr><tbody><tr class="last"><td> 1 </td><td> 11 </td><td> Mass </td><td> Matt Forte, Chi </td><td> RB5 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 2 </td><td> 12 </td><td> Joyner </td><td> Maurice Jones-Drew, Jac </td><td> RB6 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 3 </td><td> 13 </td><td> Quintong </td><td> Larry Fitzgerald, Ari </td><td> WR2 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 4 </td><td> 14 </td><td> Cockcroft </td><td> Andre Johnson, Hou </td><td> WR3 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 5 </td><td> 15 </td><td> Hunter </td><td> Eli Manning, NYG </td><td> QB6 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 6 </td><td> 16 </td><td> McCormick </td><td> Julio Jones, Atl </td><td> WR4 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 7 </td><td> 17 </td><td> Bell </td><td> Jimmy Graham, NO </td><td> TE1 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 8 </td><td> 18 </td><td> Berry </td><td> Rob Gronkowski, NE </td><td> TE2 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 9 </td><td> 19 </td><td> Harris </td><td> Marshawn Lynch, Sea </td><td> RB7 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 10 </td><td> 20 </td><td> Karabell </td><td> Roddy White, Atl </td><td> WR5 </td></tr></tbody></table>



Round 2 analysis: Joyner takes Maurice Jones-Drew, whose value clearly falls a bit because of his current holdout. Eli Manning is the only quarterback to be selected in this round as the top wide receivers start to get the call. Harris selected Marshawn Lynch, who he'll admit has "the whiff of a one-year wonder about him," but given the long wait after grabbing Rodgers he rolled the dice with the upside of Lynch and DeMarco Murray, whom he selected three spots later.


The dynamic duo of record-setting tight ends both went off the board in this round. Bell took Jimmy Graham one pick ahead of Berry, who went to the New England Patriots' well for a second time with Rob Gronkowski. Clearly the Talented Mr. Roto has no fear about his top two selections residing in the same huddle. At this stage of the draft, you take the player who's the best on the board regardless of position, and regardless of uniform.


ROUND 3

<table><thead><tr><th> Pick </th><th> Overall </th><th> By </th><th> Player </th><th> Pos Rank </th></tr><tbody><tr class="last"><td> 1 </td><td> 21 </td><td> Karabell </td><td> Greg Jennings, GB </td><td> WR6 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 2 </td><td> 22 </td><td> Harris </td><td> DeMarco Murray, Dal </td><td> RB8 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 3 </td><td> 23 </td><td> Berry </td><td> Jamaal Charles, KC </td><td> RB9 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 4 </td><td> 24 </td><td> Bell </td><td> Fred Jackson, Buf </td><td> RB10 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 5 </td><td> 25 </td><td> McCormick </td><td> Michael Vick, Phi </td><td> QB7 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 6 </td><td> 26 </td><td> Hunter </td><td> Tony Romo, Dal </td><td> QB8 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 7 </td><td> 27 </td><td> Cockcroft </td><td> Adrian Peterson, Min </td><td> RB11 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 8 </td><td> 28 </td><td> Quintong </td><td> Darren McFadden, Oak </td><td> RB12 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 9 </td><td> 29 </td><td> Joyner </td><td> Philip Rivers, SD </td><td> QB9 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 10 </td><td> 30 </td><td> Mass </td><td> Peyton Manning, Den </td><td> QB10 </td></tr></tbody></table>



Round 3 analysis: Karabell plays the waiting game with his first quarterback, as he goes with two wide receivers at this stage of the draft. He may not have done so if more QBs had gone in Round 2, but with only two WRs required in a legal lineup it's hard to argue that Roddy White and Greg Jennings aren't as good a combination with which one can leave a draft. Hunter throws a curveball into the proceedings by grabbing Tony Romo at this point, the first to nab a second QB. This was his strategy going in: to grab one of the top-three running backs then grab two upper-echelon quarterbacks. It's hard to argue with his grabbing what could easily prove to be a combined 9,000 yards of passing.


My bookend picks: Peyton Manning and Michael Turner. I'm totally happy with getting Manning here and I don't feel like I'm playing catch-up at the position at all. To add Turner to the mix, a running back I believe to be incredibly undervalued amid a sea of question marks at the position, only adds to my good feelings at the moment. I'll leave the injury risks at running back to my colleagues to sort through in the next two rounds.


ROUND 4

<table><thead><tr><th> Pick </th><th> Overall </th><th> By </th><th> Player </th><th> Pos Rank </th></tr><tbody><tr class="last"><td> 1 </td><td> 31 </td><td> Mass </td><td> Michael Turner, Atl </td><td> RB13 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 2 </td><td> 32 </td><td> Joyner </td><td> Wes Welker, NE </td><td> WR7 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 3 </td><td> 33 </td><td> Quintong </td><td> Steven Jackson, StL </td><td> RB14 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 4 </td><td> 34 </td><td> Cockcroft </td><td> Matt Ryan, Atl </td><td> QB11 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 5 </td><td> 35 </td><td> Hunter </td><td> Mike Wallace, Pit </td><td> WR8 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 6 </td><td> 36 </td><td> McCormick </td><td> A.J. Green, Cin </td><td> WR9 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 7 </td><td> 37 </td><td> Bell </td><td> Hakeem Nicks, NYG </td><td> WR10 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 8 </td><td> 38 </td><td> Berry </td><td> Ryan Mathews*, SD </td><td> RB15 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 9 </td><td> 39 </td><td> Harris </td><td> Steve Smith, Car </td><td> WR11 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 10 </td><td> 40 </td><td> Karabell </td><td> Ben Roethlisberger, Pit </td><td> QB12 </td></tr></tbody></table>



Round 4: One of the aforementioned injury risks is Ryan Mathews, a pick that could provide Berry with the steal of the draft. Sure his broken collarbone may keep him out for a game or two, but he probably would have been off the board no later than pick No. 12 had the injury not occurred, and most of his missed time should be in those meaningless-to-fantasy preseason affairs.


Harris went with Steve Smith, an interesting pick given how much focus there is on the run in Carolina. Still, Harris trusts that Newton won't ignore Smith and expects the No. 6 WR in fantasy last season to come close to the same kind of production in 2012, making him a safe low-end No. 1 fantasy WR.


ROUND 5

<table><thead><tr><th> Pick </th><th> Overall </th><th> By </th><th> Player </th><th> Pos Rank </th></tr><tbody><tr class="last"><td> 1 </td><td> 41 </td><td> Karabell </td><td> Matt Schaub, Hou </td><td> QB13 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 2 </td><td> 42 </td><td> Harris </td><td> Brandon Marshall, Chi </td><td> WR12 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 3 </td><td> 43 </td><td> Berry </td><td> Robert Griffin III, Wsh </td><td> QB14 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 4 </td><td> 44 </td><td> Bell </td><td> Ahmad Bradshaw, NYG </td><td> RB16 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 5 </td><td> 45 </td><td> McCormick </td><td> Trent Richardson, Cle </td><td> RB17 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 6 </td><td> 46 </td><td> Hunter </td><td> Frank Gore, SF </td><td> RB18 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 7 </td><td> 47 </td><td> Cockcroft </td><td> Dez Bryant, Dal </td><td> WR13 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 8 </td><td> 48 </td><td> Quintong </td><td> Jay Cutler, Chi </td><td> QB15 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 9 </td><td> 49 </td><td> Joyner </td><td> Antonio Gates, SD </td><td> TE3 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 10 </td><td> 50 </td><td> Mass </td><td> Darren Sproles, NO </td><td> RB19 </td></tr></tbody></table>




Round 5 analysis: Karabell finally grabbed his first QB at the end of Round 4 in Ben Roethlisberger and doubled down with Matt Schaub to kick off Round 5. There are a lot of question marks in this duo in terms of injury history and offensive line issues, but we're far from scraping the bottom of the barrel here.


Meanwhile, McCormick's selection of Trent Richardson at No. 45 kind of shows how quickly the running back position can drop off, even with all those extra QBs being taken early. He's a rookie with knee issues and is playing in an incredibly inexperienced huddle in Cleveland. And yet, I can't argue with McCormick when he says that he felt he could afford to take the risk here given the alternatives on the board. At least you know Richardson, when healthy, is the one who will get the carries.



My bookend picks: Darren Sproles and Percy Harvin. I was all set to take Antonio Gates, when Joyner snaked him from me, so I instead went with Sproles. He's not the traditional running back by any means, with few handoffs but a whopping 111 targets last season. Really, the flex spot was made for him, and he'll slot in nicely there. Harvin is a game-time lineup decision on a regular basis, but when he plays he's rock solid. If the Vikings do decide to have him on the field for more than 58 percent of their snaps this season, he'll easily return to the top 10 at the WR position. After all, he was No. 8 last season with those "handcuffs" on him.


ROUND 6

<table><thead><tr><th> Pick </th><th> Overall </th><th> By </th><th> Player </th><th> Pos Rank </th></tr><tbody><tr class="last"><td> 1 </td><td> 51 </td><td> Mass </td><td> Percy Harvin, Min </td><td> WR14 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 2 </td><td> 52 </td><td> Joyner </td><td> Carson Palmer, Oak </td><td> QB16 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 3 </td><td> 53 </td><td> Quintong </td><td> Victor Cruz, NYG </td><td> WR15 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 4 </td><td> 54 </td><td> Cockcroft </td><td> Willis McGahee, Den </td><td> RB20 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 5 </td><td> 55 </td><td> Hunter </td><td> Jordy Nelson, GB </td><td> WR16 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 6 </td><td> 56 </td><td> McCormick </td><td> Brandon Lloyd, NE </td><td> WR17 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 7 </td><td> 57 </td><td> Bell </td><td> Steve Johnson, Buf </td><td> WR18 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 8 </td><td> 58 </td><td> Berry </td><td> Marques Colston, NO </td><td> WR19 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 9 </td><td> 59 </td><td> Harris </td><td> Reggie Bush, Mia </td><td> RB21 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 10 </td><td> 60 </td><td> Karabell </td><td> Roy Helu, Wsh </td><td> RB22 </td></tr></tbody></table>



Round 6 analysis: Joyner selected Carson Palmer, whose current average draft position has him being taken as the 21st quarterback in ESPN Live Drafts, as his second starter here, so I thought I'd delve into what he sees in Palmer that others clearly don't. Joyner thinks people aren't putting his 2011 numbers in their proper perspective.


He was fifth overall in yards per attempt, and if you prorated his stats in the final nine games of the season out to a full year's schedule, he would have ended up No. 10 at the position. Perhaps knowing that nobody else in this draft likely feels the same way, he could have waited a round or two, but when you like a player this much you should take him, regardless of what "everybody else thinks."


ROUND 7

<table><thead><tr><th> Pick </th><th> Overall </th><th> By </th><th> Player </th><th> Pos Rank </th></tr><tbody><tr class="last"><td> 1 </td><td> 61 </td><td> Karabell </td><td> BenJarvus Green-Ellis, Cin </td><td> RB23 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 2 </td><td> 62 </td><td> Harris </td><td> Vincent Jackson, TB </td><td> WR20 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 3 </td><td> 63 </td><td> Berry </td><td> Miles Austin, Dal </td><td> WR21 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 4 </td><td> 64 </td><td> Bell </td><td> Ryan Fitzpatrick, Buf </td><td> QB17 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 5 </td><td> 65 </td><td> McCormick </td><td> Doug Martin, TB </td><td> RB24 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 6 </td><td> 66 </td><td> Hunter </td><td> Jeremy Maclin, Phi </td><td> WR22 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 7 </td><td> 67 </td><td> Cockcroft </td><td> Demaryius Thomas, Den </td><td> WR23 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 8 </td><td> 68 </td><td> Quintong </td><td> Eric Decker, Den </td><td> WR24 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 9 </td><td> 69 </td><td> Joyner </td><td> Antonio Brown, Pit </td><td> WR25 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 10 </td><td> 70 </td><td> Mass </td><td> Dwayne Bowe, KC </td><td> WR26 </td></tr></tbody></table>




Round 7 analysis: You want to sum up the difference between a two-QB league and any other format? I'll do it in two words: Ryan Fitzpatrick. Yes, the Buffalo quarterback goes from being a 14th-round selection to getting taken off the board by Bell in Round 7 without most people even batting an eye.


Clearly Bell has confidence in the Bills' offense, as she had selected Steve Johnson in Round 6 and Fred Jackson in Round 3. I'm not a fan of putting too many eggs into one basket, but on weeks in which Buffalo clicks -- and it did score 21 or more points 10 times last season and 30 or more five times -- Bell is sure to be on the fast track to victory.


My bookend picks: Dwayne Bowe and Stevan Ridley. If Bowe's holdout was the reason he fell to me here, I'll take it. What's not to like about a guy who is a pretty solid bet for 80 catches and over 1,100 yards at this point of the draft? Ridley is on the Patriots, and we all know how unreliable any individual RB in Bill Belichick's system can be. However, Ridley ranks No. 16 overall in TD-only leagues, which speaks to his "nose" for the end zone. As my No. 4 running back, I'll take the gamble.


ROUND 8

<table><thead><tr><th> Pick </th><th> Overall </th><th> By </th><th> Player </th><th> Pos Rank </th></tr><tbody><tr class="last"><td> 1 </td><td> 71 </td><td> Mass </td><td> Stevan Ridley, NE </td><td> RB25 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 2 </td><td> 72 </td><td> Joyner </td><td> DeSean Jackson, Phi </td><td> WR27 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 3 </td><td> 73 </td><td> Quintong </td><td> Vernon Davis, SF </td><td> TE4 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 4 </td><td> 74 </td><td> Cockcroft </td><td> Ben Tate, Hou </td><td> RB26 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 5 </td><td> 75 </td><td> Hunter </td><td> Jason Witten, Dal </td><td> TE5 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 6 </td><td> 76 </td><td> McCormick </td><td> Peyton Hillis, KC </td><td> RB27 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 7 </td><td> 77 </td><td> Bell </td><td> Pierre Garcon, Wsh </td><td> WR28 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 8 </td><td> 78 </td><td> Berry </td><td> Isaac Redman, Pit </td><td> RB28 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 9 </td><td> 79 </td><td> Harris </td><td> C.J. Spiller, Buf </td><td> RB29 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 10 </td><td> 80 </td><td> Karabell </td><td> Jonathan Stewart, Car </td><td> RB30 </td></tr></tbody></table>

ROUND 9

<table><thead><tr><th> Pick </th><th> Overall </th><th> By </th><th> Player </th><th> Pos Rank </th></tr><tbody><tr class="last"><td> 1 </td><td> 81 </td><td> Karabell </td><td> Shonn Greene, NYJ </td><td> RB31 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 2 </td><td> 82 </td><td> Harris </td><td> Jermichael Finley, GB </td><td> TE6 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 3 </td><td> 83 </td><td> Berry </td><td> Donald Brown, Ind </td><td> RB32 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 4 </td><td> 84 </td><td> Bell </td><td> David Wilson, NYG </td><td> RB33 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 5 </td><td> 85 </td><td> McCormick </td><td> Josh Freeman, TB </td><td> QB18 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 6 </td><td> 86 </td><td> Hunter </td><td> Michael Bush, Chi </td><td> RB34 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 7 </td><td> 87 </td><td> Cockcroft </td><td> Denarius Moore, Oak </td><td> WR29 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 8 </td><td> 88 </td><td> Quintong </td><td> Cedric Benson, GB </td><td> RB35 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 9 </td><td> 89 </td><td> Joyner </td><td> DeAngelo Williams, Car </td><td> RB36 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 10 </td><td> 90 </td><td> Mass </td><td> Aaron Hernandez, NE </td><td> TE7 </td></tr></tbody></table>

ROUND 10

<table><thead><tr><th> Pick </th><th> Overall </th><th> By </th><th> Player </th><th> Pos Rank </th></tr><tbody><tr class="last"><td> 1 </td><td> 91 </td><td> Mass </td><td> Andy Dalton, Cin </td><td> QB19 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 2 </td><td> 92 </td><td> Joyner </td><td> Michael Crabtree, SF </td><td> WR30 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 3 </td><td> 93 </td><td> Quintong </td><td> Santonio Holmes, NYJ </td><td> WR31 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 4 </td><td> 94 </td><td> Cockcroft </td><td> Fred Davis, Wsh </td><td> TE8 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 5 </td><td> 95 </td><td> Hunter </td><td> Joe Flacco, Bal </td><td> QB20 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 6 </td><td> 96 </td><td> McCormick </td><td> Reggie Wayne, Ind </td><td> WR32 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 7 </td><td> 97 </td><td> Bell </td><td> Malcom Floyd, SD </td><td> WR33 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 8 </td><td> 98 </td><td> Berry </td><td> Andrew Luck, Ind </td><td> QB21 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 9 </td><td> 99 </td><td> Harris </td><td> Beanie Wells, Ari </td><td> RB37 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 10 </td><td> 100 </td><td> Karabell </td><td> Robert Meachem, SD </td><td> WR34 </td></tr></tbody></table>



Rounds 8-10 analysis: Karabell selects Jonathan Stewart and Shonn Greene to go along with his previous two selections of Roy Helu and BenJarvus Green-Ellis. Clearly he's loading the bench and hoping that at least one of these guys can join Foster in his starting lineup on a regular basis. Any one of the quartet is capable of reaching 1,000 yards if things break right, so it appears that shunning RBs and grabbing his WRs early might not hurt him too much after all.


The next tier of tight ends start to go off the board, as even with the flex spot open to them most owners are going to draft only one, so unless you can steal the Graham/Gronkowski double, it pays to wait. Quintong takes Vernon Davis two picks ahead of Hunter, but that doesn't influence his pick here. Witten was always Hunter's target, calling him "one of the most consistent tight ends in the game from season to season."


This is the portion of the draft in which many owners went with riskier fliers in the hopes that they'd pay off. One of those picks was Cockcroft's selection of Denarius Moore in Round 9. "Look at who else was available at wide receiver: Michael Crabtree? Santonio Holmes? Yuck to both! Reggie Wayne? Robert Meachem? Neither of those guys has as much upside as does Moore. Kenny Britt? Ha!"


My bookend picks: Aaron Hernandez and Andy Dalton. I agree with Hunter that you shouldn't draft a player at a position simply because a run takes place, but after Davis, Witten and Jermichael Finley went off the board, and given my bookend position in the snake draft, I had to grab Hernandez here as he was the last man standing in his tier. And if A.J. Green is good enough to go in Round 4, Dalton should be good enough to handle my second QB slot. But just to make sure, I plan on grabbing two more bodies before this draft is over. As I've said before, quarterbacks score more points than any other position. I don't want to be left with nothing in reserve should my gunslingers stumble or get hurt.


ROUND 11

<table><thead><tr><th> Pick </th><th> Overall </th><th> By </th><th> Player </th><th> Pos Rank </th></tr><tbody><tr class="last"><td> 1 </td><td> 101 </td><td> Karabell </td><td> Tony Gonzalez, Atl </td><td> TE9 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 2 </td><td> 102 </td><td> Harris </td><td> Alex Smith, SF </td><td> QB22 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 3 </td><td> 103 </td><td> Berry </td><td> Torrey Smith, Bal </td><td> WR35 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 4 </td><td> 104 </td><td> Bell </td><td> Toby Gerhart, Min </td><td> RB38 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 5 </td><td> 105 </td><td> McCormick </td><td> Kenny Britt*, Ten </td><td> WR36 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 6 </td><td> 106 </td><td> Hunter </td><td> Shane Vereen, NE </td><td> RB39 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 7 </td><td> 107 </td><td> Cockcroft </td><td> Mark Ingram, NO </td><td> RB40 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 8 </td><td> 108 </td><td> Quintong </td><td> Felix Jones, Dal </td><td> RB41 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 9 </td><td> 109 </td><td> Joyner </td><td> 49ers D/ST </td><td> D/ST1 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 10 </td><td> 110 </td><td> Mass </td><td> LeGarrette Blount, TB </td><td> RB42 </td></tr></tbody></table>

ROUND 12

<table><thead><tr><th> Pick </th><th> Overall </th><th> By </th><th> Player </th><th> Pos Rank </th></tr><tbody><tr class="last"><td> 1 </td><td> 111 </td><td> Mass </td><td> Tim Tebow, NYJ </td><td> QB23 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 2 </td><td> 112 </td><td> Joyner </td><td> Pierre Thomas, NO </td><td> RB43 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 3 </td><td> 113 </td><td> Quintong </td><td> Matt Cassel, KC </td><td> QB24 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 4 </td><td> 114 </td><td> Cockcroft </td><td> Sam Bradford, StL </td><td> QB25 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 5 </td><td> 115 </td><td> Hunter </td><td> Titus Young, Det </td><td> WR37 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 6 </td><td> 116 </td><td> McCormick </td><td> Matt Flynn, Sea </td><td> QB26 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 7 </td><td> 117 </td><td> Bell </td><td> Texans D/ST </td><td> D/ST2 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 8 </td><td> 118 </td><td> Berry </td><td> Kevin Smith, Det </td><td> RB44 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 9 </td><td> 119 </td><td> Harris </td><td> Jahvid Best*, Det </td><td> RB45 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 10 </td><td> 120 </td><td> Karabell </td><td> Lance Moore, NO </td><td> WR38 </td></tr></tbody></table>

ROUND 13

<table><thead><tr><th> Pick </th><th> Overall </th><th> By </th><th> Player </th><th> Pos Rank </th></tr><tbody><tr class="last"><td> 1 </td><td> 121 </td><td> Karabell </td><td> Nate Washington, Ten </td><td> WR39 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 2 </td><td> 122 </td><td> Harris </td><td> Darrius Heyward-Bey, Oak </td><td> WR40 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 3 </td><td> 123 </td><td> Berry </td><td> Austin Collie, Ind </td><td> WR41 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 4 </td><td> 124 </td><td> Bell </td><td> Jacob Tamme, Den </td><td> TE10 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 5 </td><td> 125 </td><td> McCormick </td><td> Jared Cook, Ten </td><td> TE11 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 6 </td><td> 126 </td><td> Hunter </td><td> Brandon Jacobs, SF </td><td> RB46 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 7 </td><td> 127 </td><td> Cockcroft </td><td> Bears D/ST </td><td> D/ST3 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 8 </td><td> 128 </td><td> Quintong </td><td> Anquan Boldin, Bal </td><td> WR42 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 9 </td><td> 129 </td><td> Joyner </td><td> Tim Hightower, Wsh </td><td> RB47 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 10 </td><td> 130 </td><td> Mass </td><td> Alshon Jeffery, Chi </td><td> WR43 </td></tr></tbody></table>



Rounds 11-13: This is when you should take your tight end, should you be one of the owners who has held out in doing so up until now. Tony Gonzalez, Jacob Tamme and Jared Cook went off the board in this part of the draft. The first defense went off the board as well in Round 10 in the shape of the San Francisco 49ers to Joyner. Houston and Chicago also were selected during these three rounds, but most owners were content to wait even longer than this. This is typical of ESPN expert mocks, but if ADP is to be believed most leagues don't see owners with as much patience at this position. As such, you might want to consider shaving a few rounds off the draft positions found here.


My picks: I went with LeGarrette Blount, who I think might recapture the same kind of magic he had in 2010 when he split time with Cadillac Williams, even if Doug Martin gets a lot of touches for new coach Greg Schiano. Also joining my team here is Tim Tebow, who would have practically no value in a traditional league because of the uncertainty of how much he will play. In a two-QB league, however, you need quarterbacks who you know will be on the field, and even if it is just in small doses, odds are good Tebow gets at least a few snaps per game. Alshon Jeffery is a rookie roll of the dice, but he has looked good so far in Chicago Bears camp and could well end up starting opposite Brandon Marshall as early as Week 1. Why not?


ROUND 14

<table><thead><tr><th> Pick </th><th> Overall </th><th> By </th><th> Player </th><th> Pos Rank </th></tr><tbody><tr class="last"><td> 1 </td><td> 131 </td><td> Mass </td><td> Ryan Tannehill, Mia </td><td> QB27 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 2 </td><td> 132 </td><td> Joyner </td><td> Randy Moss, SF </td><td> WR44 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 3 </td><td> 133 </td><td> Quintong </td><td> Ronnie Brown, SD </td><td> RB48 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 4 </td><td> 134 </td><td> Cockcroft </td><td> Justin Blackmon, Jac </td><td> WR45 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 5 </td><td> 135 </td><td> Hunter </td><td> Ravens D/ST </td><td> D/ST4 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 6 </td><td> 136 </td><td> McCormick </td><td> Eagles D/ST </td><td> D/ST5 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 7 </td><td> 137 </td><td> Bell </td><td> Ryan Williams, Ari </td><td> RB49 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 8 </td><td> 138 </td><td> Berry </td><td> Randall Cobb, GB </td><td> WR46 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 9 </td><td> 139 </td><td> Harris </td><td> Daniel Thomas, Mia </td><td> RB50 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 10 </td><td> 140 </td><td> Karabell </td><td> Mark Sanchez, NYJ </td><td> QB28 </td></tr></tbody></table>

ROUND 15

<table><thead><tr><th> Pick </th><th> Overall </th><th> By </th><th> Player </th><th> Pos Rank </th></tr><tbody><tr class="last"><td> 1 </td><td> 141 </td><td> Karabell </td><td> Steelers D/ST </td><td> D/ST6 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 2 </td><td> 142 </td><td> Harris </td><td> Rueben Randle, NYG </td><td> WR47 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 3 </td><td> 143 </td><td> Berry </td><td> Mike Goodson, Oak </td><td> RB51 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 4 </td><td> 144 </td><td> Bell </td><td> Mario Manningham, SF </td><td> WR48 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 5 </td><td> 145 </td><td> McCormick </td><td> Jake Locker, Ten </td><td> QB29 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 6 </td><td> 146 </td><td> Hunter </td><td> Rashard Mendenhall*, Pit </td><td> RB52 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 7 </td><td> 147 </td><td> Cockcroft </td><td> Jon Baldwin, KC </td><td> WR49 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 8 </td><td> 148 </td><td> Quintong </td><td> Jets D/ST </td><td> D/ST7 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 9 </td><td> 149 </td><td> Joyner </td><td> Rashad Jennings, Jac </td><td> RB53 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 10 </td><td> 150 </td><td> Mass </td><td> Giants D/ST </td><td> D/ST8 </td></tr></tbody></table>

ROUND 16

<table><thead><tr><th> Pick </th><th> Overall </th><th> By </th><th> Player </th><th> Pos Rank </th></tr><tbody><tr class="last"><td> 1 </td><td> 151 </td><td> Mass </td><td> Jacquizz Rodgers, Atl </td><td> RB54 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 2 </td><td> 152 </td><td> Joyner </td><td> Robert Turbin, Sea </td><td> RB55 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 3 </td><td> 153 </td><td> Quintong </td><td> Mike Williams, TB </td><td> WR50 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 4 </td><td> 154 </td><td> Cockcroft </td><td> Isaiah Pead, StL </td><td> RB56 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 5 </td><td> 155 </td><td> Hunter </td><td> Brian Quick, StL </td><td> WR51 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 6 </td><td> 156 </td><td> McCormick </td><td> Chris Rainey, Pit </td><td> RB57 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 7 </td><td> 157 </td><td> Bell </td><td> Vincent Brown, SD </td><td> WR52 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 8 </td><td> 158 </td><td> Berry </td><td> Chiefs D/ST </td><td> D/ST9 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 9 </td><td> 159 </td><td> Harris </td><td> Seahawks D/ST </td><td> D/ST10 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 10 </td><td> 160 </td><td> Karabell </td><td> Brandon Pettigrew, Det </td><td> TE12 </td></tr></tbody></table>



Rounds 14-16: This is the point of the draft in which you simply grab players at positions you feel you are lacking depth or rookies who you hope develop quickly into household names. We're talking players such as Justin Blackmon, Rueben Randle, Robert Turbin and Isaiah Pead. Odds are not all of these players will end up lighting up fantasy scoreboards, but odds are at least one will. In the spirit of "you've got to be in it to win it," step up and buy your lottery ticket today!


My picks: You can never have enough quarterbacks in this format, so I'll add Ryan Tannehill to my intrepid squad. With David Garrard hurt and Matt Moore as the only other option standing in his way to become the Miami starter, I expect offensive coordinator Mike Sherman to lobby hard for his former college charge. All teams eventually do need a defense, and my fantasy squad is no exception. The New York Giants are the 11th team being selected, according to current ADP, but with Dallas (poor offensive line), Tampa Bay and Cleveland among their first five opponents, I certainly am optimistic for them to have a strong start. If not, we'll adjust accordingly on the wire. Finally, Jacquizz Rodgers serves as a Turner handcuff, just in case I'm wrong on him. (Hey, these things do happen.)


ROUND 17

<table><thead><tr><th> Pick </th><th> Overall </th><th> By </th><th> Player </th><th> Player </th></tr><tbody><tr class="last"><td> 1 </td><td> 161 </td><td> Karabell </td><td> Stephen Gostkowski, NE </td><td> K1 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 2 </td><td> 162 </td><td> Harris </td><td> Mason Crosby, GB </td><td> K2 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 3 </td><td> 163 </td><td> Berry </td><td> David Akers, SF </td><td> K3 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 4 </td><td> 164 </td><td> Bell </td><td> Sebastian Janikowski, Oak </td><td> K4 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 5 </td><td> 165 </td><td> McCormick </td><td> Matt Prater, Den </td><td> K5 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 6 </td><td> 166 </td><td> Hunter </td><td> Alex Henery, Phi </td><td> K6 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 7 </td><td> 167 </td><td> Cockcroft </td><td> Garrett Hartley, NO </td><td> K7 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 8 </td><td> 168 </td><td> Quintong </td><td> Rob Bironas, Ten </td><td> K8 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 9 </td><td> 169 </td><td> Joyner </td><td> Dan Bailey, Dal </td><td> K9 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 10 </td><td> 170 </td><td> Mass </td><td> Greg Zuerlein, StL </td><td> K10 </td></tr></tbody></table>

Round 17: As always, this round is the time to grab that all-important yet impossible to predict top kicker from the usual suspects. I'm taking a chance on the strong leg of rookie Greg Zuerlein, who is replacing Josh Brown in St. Louis. Any time a team uses a draft pick on a kicker, I take notice. But really, any pick will do.


Well, there you have it. Remember, every draft is different. Change one pick and the whole sequence of selections from that point on can go in a completely different direction. However, this latest mock draft should give you a good starting point from which to make your decisions as to the general neighborhood in which players currently rank relative to each other. But when the time comes to pull the trigger, the choice is yours to make. Choose wisely!

 

[HacheMan]

Avoiding the 'burn' factor

Some players could be major bargains following subpar 2011 campaigns

By Jim McCormick | Special to ESPN.com

Fantasy owners have uniquely strong memories. Remembering your brother's birthday might be a challenge, but you definitely remember that stretch in 2004 when Drew Bennett (and possibly Billy Volek) stole your heart and propelled you to a fantasy title. It's even more likely that the players who greatly disappointed resonate in the minds of their owners with an indelible stain. The old marketing truism that "a happy customer tells one friend, an unhappy customer tells everybody" certainly applies to fantasy football. This effect is natural; when we invest heavily in a player early in drafts, there is an imaginary pact where the football player unknowingly agrees to provide said investor with heaps of imaginary points. While it might seem a bit silly to an outsider, getting burned badly in fantasy, well, burns.

We've all heard the phrase "when the hate goes too far" in regard to fantasy. This expression suggests that when the impression of a player is overwhelmingly negative, it can reach a point where the player can become undervalued given just how sour the buying public has become. Value potentially can be found in the general distaste for a specific player. A related branch of this concept can be considered to be the "burn factor"; when a player doesn't meet the statistical expectations commensurate with a lofty draft price, he can become persona non grata in subsequent seasons.
This is a natural effect; we are prone to not touch a hot stove for a second time just as we are apt to avoid reinvesting in a player who welched on his fantasy football contract. In the comment section of Eric Karabell's recent piece on DeSean Jackson, a reader chimed in with a statement that embodies the burn factor well: "DeSean burned me too bad last year so there is no way I'm drafting him this year. And this is coming from an Eagles fan." Whatever one might make of Jackson's value as a fantasy commodity, this idea of crossing a player off the draft board is common, and is likely an unwise approach to pricing the market for production.
The concept here is whether we can find value on the market for talent in the resulting deflation of the "burn factor"; when the hate can go too far the year after a player significantly underperforms his average draft position/auction price. More specifically, is there a form of Matthew Berry's "proven players off a bad year" (PPOBY) idea that he's regularly applied to fantasy baseball analysis that can be translated into football?
Some of the value that I find in this PPOBY concept stems loosely from an idea that expert fantasy baseball analyst Ron Shandler crafted some time ago that essentially said, "Once a player exhibits a skill over a long enough period of time, he then owns that skill." A rough translation of Shandler's concept is to say that if a professional player can sustain performance over an enduring stretch, say a full season, it's then entirely possible -- not guaranteed, per se -- for such skills and performance to resurface.

The best example from 2011 of a PPOBY is likely Steve Smith of the Carolina Panthers. Smith was coming off an undeniably bad season in 2011 before returning to fantasy stardom. Despite the market souring on his value, Smith returned to a level of elite production that he had previously established. Steve Smith since 2007

<table><thead><tr><th> Year </th><th> Average draft position </th><th> Preseason ESPN WR rank </th><th> ESPN standard fantasy points </th><th> Final WR rank </th></tr></thead><tbody><tr class="last"><td> 2007 </td><td> 16.3 </td><td> 1 </td><td> 140 </td><td> 17 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 2008 </td><td> 34.1 </td><td> 10 </td><td> 174 </td><td> 5 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 2009 </td><td> 23.6 </td><td> 6 </td><td> 136 </td><td> 18 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 2010 </td><td> 33.5 </td><td> 11 </td><td> 57 </td><td> 73 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 2011 </td><td> 96.0 </td><td> 28 </td><td> 175 </td><td> 6 </td></tr></tbody></table>

Despite posting relatively disappointing seasons in 2007 and 2009, the ADP didn't crash until after his abysmal 2010. The deflation in Smith's draft price in 2011 made enough sense, but did it go too far given the previous production floor he had established? There seems to be potential for this type of burn factor to overinfluence the market. The idea being that Smith so dramatically underperformed, with the taste of char so strong and bitter, that there was some form of a punishment or banishment on the subsequent draft market.
There is always a reason previously proven players drop in drafts. We respond to fantasy production, and with awful seasons -- whether influenced by injuries, holdouts, inept quarterbacks, weak offensive lines or bad schemes -- the end result is that the crowd moves on after being burned. Now that we have the hindsight provided by Smith's resurgent 2011, we can look at 2010 as the aberration and not a condemning trend. The reasons now seem obvious; Smith, who undoubtedly underperformed in 2010, was also beset with the poorest quarterback play in the league that season (lowest QB rating and fewest yards by 632). If anything, Smith's case teaches us that we need to apply context to performance and mind the Shandler concept of players "owning" previously established skills and production thresholds.
Those willing to forgive his 2010 season reaped great profits on Smith last season. Coming into 2012, there are some potential PPOBY candidates to consider.
Many fantasy pundits believe that Reggie Wayne's depressed production in 2011 was a foreboding sign of a downward career arc. It's difficult to blame them when considering that the aging Wayne's 960 yards were his lowest since 2003, and his four TDs his fewest since 2002. But like Smith, we have to consider the contextual factors that might have depressed his production. Like Smith, Wayne was paired with poor quarterback play; with Colts signal-callers combining for the third lowest QB rating in the league last season.
Reggie Wayne since 2008

<table><thead><tr><th> Year </th><th> Average draft position </th><th> Preseason ESPN WR rank </th><th> ESPN standard fantasy points </th><th> Final WR rank </th></tr></thead><tbody><tr class="last"><td> 2008 </td><td> 17.9 </td><td> 3 </td><td> 144 </td><td> 13 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 2009 </td><td> 19.9 </td><td> 5 </td><td> 177 </td><td> 6 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 2010 </td><td> 16.8 </td><td> 4 </td><td> 162 </td><td> 9 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 2011 </td><td> 28.5 </td><td> 9 </td><td> 113 </td><td> 29 </td></tr></tbody></table>

My colleague KC Joyner analyzed Wayne's potential for a bounceback 2012 with Andrew Luck leaning on him regularly in the passing game. In discussing how Wayne still has some big-play days left, Joyner wrote: "The truth is that Wayne's 2011 numbers indicate he may still have some greatness -- or at least very good play -- in his future. His early-season totals weren't dominant, but from Weeks 12-17 Wayne gained 472 yards on 45 targets (if penalty plays are included). That equates to a 10.3 overall YPA that was highlighted by a 13.0 vertical YPA (VYPA) on 25 vertical targets."
Reggie Wayne's 2011 stats

<table><thead><tr><th> Route Depth </th><th> Comp </th><th> Att </th><th> Yds </th><th> TD </th><th> Int </th><th> Pen </th><th> Pen Yds </th><th> YPA </th></tr></thead><tbody><tr class="last"><td> Total </td><td> 75 </td><td> 118 </td><td> 960 </td><td> 4 </td><td> 3 </td><td> 2 </td><td> 47 </td><td> 8.4 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> Vertical (11+ yards) </td><td> 32 </td><td> 62 </td><td> 603 </td><td> 3 </td><td> 3 </td><td> 1 </td><td> 42 </td><td> 10.2 </td></tr></tbody></table>



Wayne, the leader among wide receivers for total fantasy points since 2006 with 868, is currently going as the 36th overall wideout with an overall average draft position of 106.5 in ESPN live drafts. It won't cost you much to find out if Wayne is indeed a PPOBY with another strong campaign in the tank, but it could cost you untold amounts of regret if you dismiss him solely on account of the burn scars from 2011.
Peyton Hillis doesn't have the same résumé as Wayne or Smith, but if we also assume that the prime stretches for tailbacks are considerably shorter than for wideouts, we'll consider Hillis "proven," given the elite 2010 performance he established. After going undrafted or as a twilight selection in 2010 drafts (ADP of 170), Hillis posted the fourth highest point total (218 points) for running backs in ESPN standard leagues that season. This sudden rise to star status led to the cover of "Madden NFL 12," or curse if you will, and an ADP 23.5 in 2011.

We all know the story of his disappointing 2011, none more so than those jilted investors who trusted that he'd live up to the considerable draft-day cost. Like Jackson's disappointing 2011 with the Eagles, Hillis' season was marred by contract squabbles and underperformance in addition to nagging injuries. It's likely, however, that the hate/burn has gone too far with Hillis in 2012.
A fixed role in a Kansas City backfield share with Jamaal Charles should see Hillis net at least similar work to the 259 total touches Thomas Jones received in his time splitting with Charles in 2010. If anything, we can assume that Hillis plays a larger role in the passing game than Jones ever did given his established skills in such a role. With a current ADP of 89.5 as the 34th running back on average -- behind the likes of Jahvid Best -- there is a good deal of evidence to suggest that Hillis is an ideal PPOBY to target.
While their ADP gaps from 2011 to 2012 aren't as pronounced, it can be argued that the Philadelphia Eagles' duo of Jeremy Maclin and Jackson could be considered PPOBYs. Maclin saw his touchdown total cut in half from 2010 to 2011 as he spent much of the season hampered by an offseason ailment in 2010 that lowered his weight and limited his explosiveness and endurance throughout. Jackson, for his part, established a strong reputation as a big-play threat with 1,293 total yards (rushing and receiving) and 12 total touchdowns in 2009 and 1,160 total yards with eight touchdowns in 2010. After being drafted 29.2 overall in 2011 drafts, ranked 10th at his position, a disappointing 2011 season has left many investors loathe to reinvest. There's little doubt that Jackson embodies the idea of a boom-or-bust producer, but with an ADP of 64.1 overall as the 22nd wide receiver on average in current drafts, there's great potential for profit given the dip in draft-day price over the past 12 months. Some will even suggest that Chris Johnson, who remains a first-rounder in most leagues, is an ideal PPOBY to consider as he has the tools to return to No. 1 status (especially with guard Steve Hutchinson in town to improve what was a middling interior blocking group in 2011).
Each situation and scenario is unique as a number of different elements factor in to why a player's value drops. But as savvy investors in a somewhat fluid market for talent, we are constantly seeking value where we can find it. Many of us are willing to pay the price for the unknown, for the upside of untapped potential, but we are not nearly as willing to forgive a down season when track record and contextual reasoning might suggest otherwise. There are likely other potential PPOBY candidates to consider for this season, and certainly for future seasons. Is there a singularly successful strategy or statistical and analytical approach to determining whether a player is in true decline or merely mired in a bad stretch? No, no there isn't. If nothing else, this discussion asks us to consider giving some proven talents a second chance -- even after they have burned us.