NFL Fantasy News 2012

[HacheMan]

Is Jones-Drew poised for drop-off?

Concerns over past workload have some fantasy owners worried

By Tristan H. Cockcroft | ESPN.com

How worried should we be about Maurice Jones-Drew's recent workload?

In this statistics-driven sports world, numbers often have a way of clouding our minds, sometimes tricking us into mistruths.


Veteran fantasy football players have surely become familiar with long-standing statistical studies of the steep drop-off in production that the majority of running backs suffer after their 30th birthdays, or the heightened risk of injury and regression that a 370-carry season causes a running back. Aging patterns and workload effects have become mainstream discussion points in the football world, and an unfortunate byproduct is that many people tend to misunderstand what constitutes being "old" or having endured a "hefty workload."


This, for example, is a dangerous interpretation: Last year's league leader in carries and/or total touches is at increased risk of injury or collapse.


That might have been a fair statement to make in certain seasons throughout history, like in years in which the leading running back ran the football 416 times, or touched it 492 times. Excessive single-season workloads are the ones that should raise red flags. League-leading workloads shouldn't necessarily; what about seasons in which no individual running back was especially abused?


Remember, NFL teams are as adept at analyzing the effects of aging and workloads as fantasy owners, often more so, and as we've become more wary of players who have been run hard in a given year, those players' NFL teams, in turn, have been far less apt to run them hard. Look around the league: More and more squads are using running back committees, multiple starters in a given season or putting more emphasis on goal-line or passing-down backs to give their workhorses rest.


To illustrate these changing times, let's put Jones-Drew's example -- age and recent workload -- into a historical context:


• Jones-Drew's NFL-leading 343 carries and 386 total touches in 2011 were the third-lowest numbers by a league's leader in either category since 1991, and they ranked only the 45th- and 41st-largest totals in either category among all players during that 21-season span.


• Jones-Drew has tallied 954 carries and 1,084 total touches the past three seasons combined, most in the NFL, but there were 47 and 46 instances, respectively, of a player finishing with more during a three-year span since 1991 in either category.


• Jones-Drew also begins the 2012 season still aged a relatively young 27.


Here's another way to illustrate it: Had Jones-Drew's numbers been accrued during the 2003 season, or merely eight years earliers, he'd have actually finished sixth in the NFL in carries and eighth in total touches. If this was 2004, we might not even raise an eyebrow to Jones-Drew's numbers.


Bloated carry/touch statistics in a given year, however, indeed warrant careful examination. Like tread on a tire, running backs wear down in time, but they do so at different rates depending upon their usage in a given year. In order to determine to what degree Jones-Drew's workload might catch up to him, let's examine precedent of other comparable, historical running backs.


All of this is not to ignore the fact that, as of this writing, Jones-Drew is holding out of training camp. With the season opener not taking place until Sept. 9, the contract situation could become an additional concern, but this column is working on the theory that things will be resolved by then.


The 300-touch season



There have been 364 instances of a 300-touch -- carries plus receptions -- season in the history of the NFL that did not conclude with the player's retirement, or did not occur in 2011. (The 2011 season is excluded from this study because, naturally, the 2012 season hasn't happened yet. Retired players are excluded because retirement is a conscious decision on the player's part, rather than the adverse effect of a grueling workload.) The chart below breaks those running backs down by multiples of 20 touches, in order to illustrate the impact of specific workloads on the player the subsequent season.


Jones-Drew's 2011 workload would fit within in the shaded 380-399 touch group.



<style type="text/css">.mod-inline td img {margin: 0px;}</style><table style="margin: 0px; width: 100%;"><thead><tr><th style="vertical-align: bottom;"> </th><th style="vertical-align: bottom;"><center> </center></th><th style="vertical-align: bottom;" colSpan="4"><center>300+ touch season</center></th><th style="vertical-align: bottom;" colSpan="4"><center>Subsequent year</center></th></tr></thead><tbody><thead><tr><th style="vertical-align: bottom;">Touches</th><th style="vertical-align: bottom;"><center>#</center></th><th style="vertical-align: bottom;"><center>FPTS</center></th><th style="vertical-align: bottom;"><center>FPTS/G</center></th><th style="vertical-align: bottom;"><center>Games</center></th><th style="vertical-align: bottom;"><center>ScrimYds
per G</center></th><th style="vertical-align: bottom;"><center>FPTS</center></th><th style="vertical-align: bottom;"><center>FPTS/G</center></th><th style="vertical-align: bottom;"><center>Games</center></th><th style="vertical-align: bottom;"><center>ScrimYds
per G</center></th></tr></thead><tbody><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;">440+</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">7</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">303</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">18.9</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">16.0</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">137.4</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">186</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">14.3</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">13.0</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">113.0</td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;">420-439</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">12</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">282</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">17.6</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">16.0</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">132.0</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">189</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">14.4</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">13.1</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">111.2</td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;">400-419</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">21</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">274</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">17.3</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">15.8</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">128.9</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">208</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">14.3</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">14.6</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">108.5</td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle; background-color: rgb(248, 248, 242);">380-399</td><td style="vertical-align: middle; background-color: rgb(248, 248, 242);" align="center">36</td><td style="vertical-align: middle; background-color: rgb(248, 248, 242);" align="center">250</td><td style="vertical-align: middle; background-color: rgb(248, 248, 242);" align="center">15.9</td><td style="vertical-align: middle; background-color: rgb(248, 248, 242);" align="center">15.8</td><td style="vertical-align: middle; background-color: rgb(248, 248, 242);" align="center">115.8</td><td style="vertical-align: middle; background-color: rgb(248, 248, 242);" align="center">198</td><td style="vertical-align: middle; background-color: rgb(248, 248, 242);" align="center">15.2</td><td style="vertical-align: middle; background-color: rgb(248, 248, 242);" align="center">13.0</td><td style="vertical-align: middle; background-color: rgb(248, 248, 242);" align="center">110.2</td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;">360-379</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">66</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">229</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">14.5</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">15.8</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">111.7</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">185</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">13.0</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">14.2</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">103.7</td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;">340-359</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">59</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">209</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">13.6</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">15.4</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">105.5</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">161</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">12.0</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">13.4</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">91.6</td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;">320-339</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">70</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">194</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">12.6</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">15.5</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">99.3</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">146</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">11.2</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">13.1</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">88.0</td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;">300-319</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">93</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">188</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">12.5</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">15.1</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">96.1</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">142</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">10.8</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">13.1</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">85.5</td></tr></tbody></table>Key: # = Number of players in the group; FPTS = Average seasonal fantasy point total by these players; FPTS/G = Average fantasy points per game; Games = Average seasonal games played by these players; ScrimYds per G = Scrimmage yards per game.




While the size of the samples is unequal -- there are only 41 instances of a 400-touch season in NFL history (40 listed here because Ricky Williams "retired" after 2003), less than half the number of players in the 300-319 touch group -- the findings remain somewhat telling in Jones-Drew's group. The 36 players who touched the football between 380 and 399 times in history lost less than five percent of their per-game fantasy production the following season, easily the smallest drop-off of any of these groups. Their total fantasy point production, meanwhile, slipped by 21 percent, which was second-least of any group.


Granted, the 380-399 group declined in terms of games played by 18 percent, which was third-most, but understand that three of the 36 players included played their subsequent season in the 1982 strike-shortened, nine-game year. (There were no such players in the three groups with 400 touches or more.) Adjust simply for shortened seasons and the 380-399 group wouldn't have suffered a decline in games played that was especially significant. In fact, adjusting for shortened seasons would give running backs who totaled between 360 and 419 touches an average of 14.3 games played the subsequent year, whereas the running backs who touches the football 420 times or more would average 13.1.


It seems that a workload between 380 and 400 touches is a perfectly reasonable, not-terribly-taxing amount and any decline in statistical performance could just as easily be explained by regression to the mean.


Worked hard by age 27



Another way to evaluate Jones-Drew's future prospects is by comparing his career workload to those of similar players at the time of their 27th birthdays. That is the age at which he'll play the entire 2012 season, having turned 27 on March 23.


Jones-Drew has carried the football 1,484 times and touched it 1,762 times during his six-year NFL career; those rank him 14th and 12th all-time among players as of the date of their 27th birthdays. Twenty-five players in the history of the league have tallied at least 1,250 carries and 1,400 touches by that age, which are good benchmarks for any historical Jones-Drew comparison. Of those 25, let's exclude three from this study: Jones-Drew himself and Adrian Peterson, who also begins the 2012 season at the age of 27, as well as Williams, who, again, "retired" in 2003.


The following chart shows what those 25 players did during the all games they played between their 27th and 28th birthdays (which explains the multiple years for Eddie George and Gerald Riggs, whose birthdays fell within the NFL season):


<style type="text/css">.mod-inline td img {margin: 0px;}</style><table style="margin: 0px; width: 100%;"><thead><tr><th style="vertical-align: bottom;"> </th><th style="vertical-align: bottom;" colSpan="4"><center>Performance before 27th birthday</center></th><th style="vertical-align: bottom;" colSpan="5"><center>Performance as 27-year-old</center></th></tr></thead><tbody><thead><tr><th style="vertical-align: bottom;">Player </th><th style="vertical-align: bottom;"><center>YPC</center></th><th style="vertical-align: bottom;"><center>YPT</center></th><th style="vertical-align: bottom;"><center>Scrim
Yds/G</center></th><th style="vertical-align: bottom;"><center>Total
TD/G</center></th><th style="vertical-align: bottom;"><center>Year(s)</center></th><th style="vertical-align: bottom;"><center>YPC</center></th><th style="vertical-align: bottom;"><center>YPT</center></th><th style="vertical-align: bottom;"><center>Scrim
Yds/G</center></th><th style="vertical-align: bottom;"><center>Total
TD/G</center></th></tr></thead><tbody><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;">Larry Brown</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">4.0</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">4.8</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">103.0</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">0.66</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">1974</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">2.5</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">4.1</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">72.8</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">0.60</td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;">Walter Payton</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">4.5</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">4.9</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">114.3</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">0.79</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">1981</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">3.6</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">4.2</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">100.1</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">0.50</td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;">Earl Campbell</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">4.6</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">4.6</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">109.7</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">0.89</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">1982</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">3.4</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">3.8</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">74.2</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">0.22</td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;">Ottis Anderson</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">4.4</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">4.9</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">109.3</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">0.52</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">1984</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">4.1</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">5.0</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">119.0</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">0.53</td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;">Eric Dickerson</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">4.8</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">5.0</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">126.5</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">0.92</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">1987</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">4.6</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">4.8</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">121.6</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">0.50</td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;">Marcus Allen</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">4.2</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">5.2</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">118.2</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">0.93</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">1987</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">3.8</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">4.6</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">97.0</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">0.33</td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;">Gerald Riggs</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">4.2</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">4.5</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">90.3</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">0.61</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">1987-88</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">4.5</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">5.0</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">89.4</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">0.17</td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;">Thurman Thomas</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">4.6</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">5.5</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">115.2</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">0.65</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">1993</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">3.7</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">4.2</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">106.4</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">0.38</td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;">Barry Sanders</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">4.9</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">5.3</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">117.5</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">0.76</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">1995</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">4.8</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">5.2</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">118.6</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">0.75</td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;">Emmitt Smith</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">4.5</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">4.7</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">117.3</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">1.08</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">1996</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">3.7</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">3.9</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">96.9</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">1.00</td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;">Rodney Hampton</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">3.9</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">4.2</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">83.9</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">0.57</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">1996</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">3.3</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">3.4</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">60.6</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">0.07</td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;">Jerome Bettis</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">4.1</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">4.3</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">89.6</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">0.40</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">1999</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">3.6</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">3.8</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">75.1</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">0.44</td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;">Marshall Faulk</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">4.1</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">5.2</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">113.5</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">0.68</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">2000</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">5.4</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">6.6</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">156.4</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">1.86</td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;">Curtis Martin</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">3.9</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">4.2</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">106.1</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">0.67</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">2000</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">3.8</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">4.4</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">107.0</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">0.69</td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;">Terrell Davis</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">4.7</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">5.0</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">120.5</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">0.97</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">2000</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">3.6</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">3.6</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">57.2</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">0.40</td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;">Eddie George</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">3.9</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">4.3</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">99.0</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">0.53</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">2000-01</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">3.8</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">4.3</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">121.7</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">0.94</td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;">Ahman Green</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">4.7</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">5.2</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">88.1</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">0.60</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">2004</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">4.5</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">4.8</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">95.9</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">0.53</td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;">Edgerrin James</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">4.2</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">4.8</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">126.2</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">0.75</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">2005</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">4.2</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">4.6</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">122.9</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">0.93</td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;">LaDainian Tomlinson</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">4.3</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">4.8</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">123.5</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">1.01</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">2006</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">5.2</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">5.8</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">145.2</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">1.94</td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;">Jamal Lewis</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">4.4</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">4.8</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">105.6</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">0.51</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">2006</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">3.6</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">3.8</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">77.9</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">0.56</td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;">Clinton Portis</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">4.5</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">4.9</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">111.9</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">0.80</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">2008</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">4.3</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">4.6</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">106.6</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">0.56</td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;">Steven Jackson</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">4.3</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">4.9</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">107.1</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">0.57</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">2010</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">3.8</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">4.3</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">101.5</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">0.38</td></tr><thead><tr><th style="vertical-align: middle;">TOTALS</th><th style="vertical-align: bottom;"><center>4.3</center></th><th style="vertical-align: bottom;"><center>4.8</center></th><th style="vertical-align: bottom;"><center>108.6</center></th><th style="vertical-align: bottom;"><center>0.72</center></th><th style="vertical-align: bottom;"><center> </center></th><th style="vertical-align: bottom;"><center>4.0</center></th><th style="vertical-align: bottom;"><center>4.6</center></th><th style="vertical-align: bottom;"><center>103.4</center></th><th style="vertical-align: bottom;"><center>0.67</center></th></tr></thead></table>Key: YPC = Yards per carry; YPT = Yards per touch; Scrim Yds/G = Scrimmage yards per game; Total TD/G = Total touchdowns per game; Year(s) = The season or seasons during which the player was age 27.




As a whole, the group showed only slight decline at the age of 27 from their career production at a younger age, an amount that should be understandable if you recall past age studies I've done. Running backs have historically exhibited peak performance between the ages of 24-26, so it should be expected that they'd drop off by a slight amount, even at 27. It's not until age 30 that the panic button is truly warranted, at least from an aging angle.


Here's another point in Jones-Drew's column: Four of the 10 running backs whose age-27 seasons happened since 2000 managed better numbers in terms of scrimmage yards and total touchdowns per game at the age of 27 than previously in their careers, and another three finished with a higher number in one of the two categories. Whether that's attributable to better training regimens, increased endurance, smarter workload management on teams' part or something else, the "aging curve" appears to be lengthening in the modern era.


The Blaine Gabbert problem



In response to the initial question, workload doesn't appear to be nearly the concern for Jones-Drew as people might fear. The short answer to it, simply, is "No."


Perhaps the better question is: How worried should we be about Maurice Jones-Drew's quarterback?


Blaine Gabbert is coming off a dreadful rookie campaign during which he only three times threw for 200 or more yards and twice threw for two touchdowns, and his 65.4 passer rating placed him among the game's worst all-time. For some historical perspective, consider that, among quarterbacks with at least 14 starts, his passer rating was 31st-worst during the 16-game schedule (since 1978), 13th-worst in the past 25 seasons (since 1987) and seventh-worst since the beginning of the millennium. Gabbert showed minimal signs of improvement during the year, too, spawning a legitimate debate as to whether he even deserves the 2012 starting job over free-agent signee and backup Chad Henne.


In Jones-Drew's defense, however, let's not forget that he just completed his aforementioned age-26, 386-touch season as fantasy football's No. 3 running back … despite Gabbert's abysmal passing, despite underlying statistics that identified right guard Will Rackley as one of the game's worst run-blockers, and despite questions that lingered a year ago at this time about his surgically repaired right knee. Jones-Drew faced at least as many obstacles entering 2011 as he does heading into 2012, and he cleared every one with aplomb.


Besides, how much worse can Gabbert be? The Jacksonville Jaguars appear committed to their 2011 first-rounder, but if he's not up to the task, Henne should at least provide a serviceable upgrade, having posted a 75.7 passer in 33 games (31 starts) the past three seasons.


Maybe all of this points to Jones-Drew's 2012 statistical ceiling being no higher than his final 2011 line. To say he is lacking in upside is fair.


But considering the historical perspective, who's to say his basement is anything less than a top-10 capable player?

 

[HacheMan]

QBs galore among early draft trends

Eric Karabell

Fantasy football owners love to see what others are doing in drafts, which is why an early look at ESPN's average live draft results can be a fruitful experience. Yes, you can actually draft right now on ESPN.com, but even if you're going to wait a few weeks, periodically checking out the trends in average draft position (ADP) gives an idea which players are seeing their value rise and fall. Perhaps you really like Michael Vick and want to select him in the second round. Well, according to ADP, you don't need to act that soon.

It's early, of course, and as of this writing we do not have seven-day adjustments to the ADP, but perhaps that's a good thing. This is the ground floor, so to speak, and I was curious whether the current results reflected ESPN's rankings (or mine) and how they might be differing, but also I wanted to check out some early draft trends. So far I have noticed the following:


People sure love their quarterbacks: ESPN ranks Green Bay Packers signal-caller Aaron Rodgers fourth overall, and I've got him fifth, but the only player going ahead of him in ADP is Houston Texans running back Arian Foster. In fact, Tom Brady and Drew Brees are each up one spot from our rankings, and Matthew Stafford moves from 13th to 11th. Cam Newton goes from 23rd to 15th! I understand the need to secure a top quarterback early, as opposed to in recent seasons, but it certainly appears that owners don't want to take any chances.


<offer></offer>Maurice Jones-Drew is starting to worry people: It's July. I think the Jacksonville Jaguars running back, and likely their only relevant fantasy option, will eventually get a new contract or learn to live with the one he's got, and will not miss any regular-season games. Whether he misses training camp or even preseason games means little and would not affect his draft rank for me. Still, ESPN ranks him fifth overall, and he's going eighth. Frankly, I'd worry more about him having the most rushing attempts the past three seasons than pulling a DeSean Jackson and slumping due to financial reasons.


Tight end attention is modest: I'll be honest, I'm unlikely to spend an early- or mid-second rounder on Rob Gronkowski or Jimmy Graham. I know all the reasons to do so, but I'm likely waiting eight more rounds for perennially overlooked Tony Gonzalez, for example, or longer for Jared Cook and Jacob Tamme. Anyway, Gronk and Graham are not being selected earlier than ESPN ranks, which really surprises me. Perhaps that's an indication others would prefer to wait at tight end as well. Antonio Gates, Vernon Davis and Jason Witten, however, are going roughly one round earlier than our ranks. Gonzalez, incidentally, is going 15 picks earlier. I expect Gronkowski and Graham to still rise in ADP, with Gronk soon flirting with the first round, especially with so much uncertainty surrounding second- and third-tier running backs.

The name Adrian Peterson matters: There's no guarantee the great Peterson plays football in September. Haven't you read and heard what the great Stephania Bell says about this situation? Still, we rank Peterson 11th at running back and 28th overall, but he's going ninth and 22nd, respectively. It's not the worst gamble, though I'm not likely to do it. The corresponding ADP result has potential Minnesota Vikings starter Toby Gerhart slipping a round from our rank and missing the top 100, which is similarly risky. Gerhart is pretty good and if he gets the opportunity, I trust him. Securing Gerhart in the eighth or ninth round, regardless if you chose Peterson, seems wise to me. I rank him 85th.


Rookies always get overrated: Cleveland Browns running back Trent Richardson is up six spots from 36 in our ranks to 30 in ADP, which isn't at all surprising or wrong. He's certainly younger than Steven Jackson and Michael Turner, so go for it. But Washington Redskins quarterback Robert Griffin III, the 15th quarterback in our rankings and 101st overall, isn't particularly close to proven Pittsburgh Steelers ace Ben Roethlisberger. In ADP, though, they're going 78th and 79th, (Roethlisberger first). Well, of course they are! I view Roethlisberger as a capable starter. I do not view the rookie that way, though I would choose him as a backup if my starter was reliable and durable.


The defense doesn't rest: If you don't know the history of top fantasy defenses and their remarkable inability to repeat year-to-year success, I urge you to check out colleague Christopher Harris' defense preview. Yes, Harris, Matthew Berry and I each rank the San Francisco 49ers unit tops, but certainly not close to 70th overall, which is the ADP result. It would be prudent to throw as many running backs on your roster as possible, hoping two are weekly plays, as opposed to reaching on any defense, even the presumed leaders. It's even worse that any kicker goes earlier than the final round; the Patriots' Stephen Gostkowski is going 107th overall, ahead of running back David Wilson, wide receiver Sidney Rice and quarterback Josh Freeman in ADP. This makes little sense, but as more drafts occur, the results at kicker will normalize. I'm not sure that will be the case with defense.

 

[HacheMan]

When to take plunge on McFadden?

Injury history complicates fantasy draft-day decision

By Christopher Harris | ESPN.com

How high should oft-injured Darren McFadden go in fantasy drafts?

Of the NFL running backs whose health and/or committee situations will drive fantasy owners up a tree this year, none is more vexing than McFadden. When he's right, Run-DMC is an all-around star. He is 6-foot-2 and 210 pounds and packs a wallop. He is a 4.33 40 runner, putting him among the fastest backs in the league. He has soft hands as a pass receiver and runs solid routes out of the backfield.


The other injury-risk running back question marks who might be considered in the same fantasy neighborhood as McFadden are plentiful (Ryan Mathews and DeMarco Murray come to mind), but no one has DMC's upside. A healthy McFadden could be the 2012 fantasy MVP. It's just not likely that we'll ever get to find out.


McFadden lost nine games last season to a foot sprain, and in the three seasons before that, he missed 10 of a possible 48 contests due to toe, knee and hamstring issues. It's not that DMC is a contact-seeking missile more prone to injury-causing collisions than an average back. Four years into his NFL career, it's disingenuous to proclaim that the former No. 4 overall draft pick is unlucky. Nor am I willing to call him soft, because I'm certain that if I had to spend even one day in McFadden's shoes, I would no longer be roaming the planet.


But something is up. The Oakland Raiders say he looked healthy this spring and that he is in fine shape heading into camp. I'm sure they have McFadden on a rigorous program to keep his oft-pulled leg muscles untorn. But if you can sit there and tell me with a straight face that you believe this guy will play the full 16 this season, you're a braver soul than I am.

So what do you do with him in your fantasy draft? I suppose it's a matter of personal breaking points. How many players who offer a better combination of upside and safety have to get drafted until it makes sense to assume the Run-DMC risk? McFadden is the Michael Vick of RBs; you have to plan your team around his presumed absences.


Despite the fact that I think DMC is a more naturally talented player than any of these backs, I wouldn't draft him as long as Matt Forte, Mathews, Marshawn Lynch (assuming he doesn't wind up earning a suspension for 2012, which I'm guessing he won't) or Murray is still on the board. Similarly, I'm willing to eschew the running back position if it comes down to taking McFadden or, say, Andre Johnson, Greg Jennings or Cam Newton.


Bottom line: I have DMC ranked No. 10 among running backs and No. 20 overall.


That's a conservative ranking. The Raiders allowed goal-line back and safety net Michael Bush walk in free agency this spring and brought in Carolina castoff Mike Goodson as a backup. (There's still a possibility Oakland could add a veteran such as Cedric Benson or Ryan Grant, but it hasn't happened yet.) Goodson and Taiwan Jones represent the depth behind McFadden, which means the Raiders hardly have any depth at all. Goodson had a nice month with the Panthers two years ago, but he missed most of last season with a hamstring injury. Jones is an undersized home-run hitter who also has durability questions. As long as he's healthy, McFadden figures to be his own goal-line caddie, meaning he'd be a great bet to top his career-high seven rushing touchdown from 2010. By policy, he likely won't come out in passing situations. Indeed, a healthy DMC would have a chance to lead the league in touches.


But I'm not willing to reach for the guy. I tend to be conservative in the early rounds, living with the maxim that you can't win your league with your first- or second-round pick, but you can lose it. Other fantasy owners may look at the shaky state of running backs this year and conclude that just about every back outside, say, the top five presents enormous risk, so why not take the risky guy who could be fantasy's No. 1 player? When he was healthy in 2011, DMC averaged almost 127 yards from scrimmage per game.


If this is the year McFadden stays healthy, you'll reap tremendous value. But if he's going to miss multiple games again -- especially games toward the end of the season -- he is a first- or second-round pick you're likely to regret.

 

[HacheMan]

Training Camp Mailbag Welcome to Rotoworld's second Twitter mailbag. I’m going to borrow from last year’s introduction for those interested in a quick Twitter primer.

A recovering Luddite myself, it took awhile to warm up to our newest social media phenomenon. While I can sympathize with the sentiment that "nobody cares" about the mindless trivia of daily living, what Twitter does accomplish -- quite brilliantly -- is to merge clusters of people interested in similar topics, such as fantasy football.

It's transformed the nature of sports journalism, not just in breaking news instantaneously but also in tapping into a virtual army of participants sharing the same interests. For fantasy football leaguers, it's a godsend. Ask a beat writer, former scout, NFL insider, or fantasy "expert" for advice, and there's a good chance you will hear back within hours or even minutes. Make your voice heard in the latest NFL Draft speculation, track multiple fantasy sites, and even keep tabs on NFL players. You can't find a better way to gather information or pass along opinion than Twitter.

For those interested in starting a Twitter account, @Rotoworld_FB contributor Chet Gresham (@Chet_G) has a handy "Twitter 101 For Fantasy Football" guide to nudge the hesitant fantasy owner out of the nest. After you have "followed" the Rotoworld football team -- @ChrisWesseling, @evansilva, @adamlevitan, @RotoPat, @JoshNorris and @MikeClayNFL -- you can peruse my lists. I've compiled nearly 200 of the top NFL beat writers, 80 national NFL insiders, 50 must-follow team sources, official NFL team websites, and a smorgasbord of fantasy football, baseball, and general sports writers as well as culture critics.

On to the mailbag.

@Joey_Mitch: “Where do you stand on Chris Johnson dynasty value? If talent is there and effort was lacking, isn't he a prime buy low?”

Nobody has taken more time and effort to break down Johnson’s 2011 struggles and 2012 outlook than Evan Silva in this brilliant column. Silva came to the conclusion, not that Johnson should be avoided like the plague in the first round this year, but that film-watching mandates a “leap of faith” to expect a return to pre-holdout production.

As I’ve long been a Johnson acolyte, the open space over which I’m leaping is less a chasm than a fissure. The findings of Silva and several national analysts suggest Johnson’s problems were three-fold: effort, red-zone opportunity and the combination of Chris Palmer’s scheme and subpar run-blocking.

Johnson concedes he didn’t arrive in football shape last year. If you believe -- as I do -- that Johnson’s questionable effort was a vestige of his protracted holdout, there is tangible evidence on which to hang your hat for a 2012 turnaround. For the first time in his career, Johnson joined teammates for voluntary OTAs rather than working out on his own in Florida. Furthermore, CJ has added 8-10 pounds of muscle this offseason after shying away from contact last year. “People who know” Johnson expect a big bounce-back season because he has “rededicated himself” and is “running harder” than he was prior to his 2,000-yard season in 2009.

Even if you remain skeptical of the Titans’ sudden profusion of young talent and OC Chris Palmer’s more wide-open and “explosive” offense, simple regression toward the mean tells us Johnson will see a marked uptick in scoring opportunities. Whereas Arian Foster led the NFL with 64 red-zone carries, Johnson saw just 18 (for comparison’s sake, that’s one more than Jackie Battle). Similarly, Johnson’s six carries inside the 5-yard line pale in comparison to Michael Turner’s league-leading 28. It requires no leap of faith to expect touchdown numbers closer to Johnson’s 2008-10 average of 12.7 than last year’s total of 4.

ESPN’s Football Scientist K.C. Joyner believes Johnson’s early-season 2011 woes can be traced to the rough transition from Mike Heimerdinger’s counter elements to Palmer’s new scheme, which never had a chance to click after a lost offseason and training camp. Johnson’s per-carry average of 4.8 -- right in line with his career mark -- over the final nine games suggests the Titans were “all the way back to the kind of plays that Johnson liked best and that worked best for him in the past.” With plenty of practice to further hone that timing with his blockers this year, Johnson can be expected to carry over that second-half success into the 2012 season. Joyner lists Johnson as fantasy’s top running back and the No. 2 pick behind Aaron Rodgers. I wouldn’t go that far, but it’s not as absurd as the “experts” would have you believe. Every year the fantasy football world is forced to re-learn that a preseason consensus at the top of the draft is a wrong-headed notion.

@Joey_Mitch: “Mark Ingram: talent is still there in a great offense and banged up all of last year, buy this year?”

Absolutely. The offseason concerns over his minor knee scope were severely overblown, and Darren McFadden has proven that early-career turf toe scares have no ill effects on future production. Despite playing just 10 games as a rookie, Ingram still led the Saints’ multi-faceted backfield in carries.

On pace for 213 touches before his season-ending injury, Ingram is expected to be the lead dog in the backfield once again. It’s easy to forget that NFL Films guru Greg Cosell had fallen in “love” with Ingram as a potential “true foundation back” by mid-season last year. Cosell and coach Sean Payton both agreed the only thing keeping Ingram from strong Rookie of the Year consideration was Payton himself.

@Joey_Mitch: “Fred Davis, best tight end no one is talking about in an offense about to improve significantly? What kind of talent is Helu?”

Yes. Davis’ 66.3 yards per game last season were behind only Rob Gronkowski’s 82.9 and Jimmy Graham’s 81.9 among tight ends. Davis had 8-of-12 games over 50 yards whereas Jason Witten managed just 8-of-16 over the half-century mark. I do expect immediate improvement with Robert Griffin III injecting life into the Redskins this season.

Helu doesn’t have much in the way of lateral agility, but his impressive size/speed ratio, short-area burst, decisive cuts and above-average hands still make him an ideal fit for the Shanahans’ zone-blocking scheme. What’s difficult to gauge about his fantasy value is that his floor-to-ceiling range is perhaps wider than any top-40 back in the league.

If he stays healthy (a big “if”) and manages to become entrenched as a true workhorse back (an even bigger “if”), Helu has the potential to lead the NFL in rushing in this ground attack. On the other hand, he could spend the season wallowing in the fantasy mud as a change-of-pace back with an occasional breakout game wasted on your bench. I believe Helu can carve out a 4-5 year window of fantasy success, but durability concerns and the whims of Shanahan have me questioning his stability in Dynasty leagues.

@Ty_In_StL: “What round should Mike Wallace be targeted and is he the best Steeler WR to go for?”

Wallace’s ADP has dropped from late-third to mid-fourth in the past few days, according to FantasyFootballCalculator.com. If you’re dying to draft him, I think you can probably wait until the fifth round over the next week or two. If Wallace does reverse course and report to camp in the next two weeks, he's worthy of a fourth-round pick. Until then, I'd let someone else deal with the potential headache of "handcuffing" Emmanuel Sanders on the chance that Wallace sits at home for 10 games.

And, yes, Wallace has the talent and touchdown advantage over Antonio Brown -- in spades. Wallace hasn’t finished outside of the top-10 fantasy receivers since he’s joined the starting lineup. If Wallace re-joins his teammates in August, he's the pick over Brown in any format.

@elishearn: “Which RBs are you targeting in rounds 7-11 in redraft? RB25-RB50. From McGahee/Helu/Wells to Pead/Hillman/Jacquizz.”

Out of that group, I’d roll the dice on Helu in the late sixth round and Pead at the back-end of the draft. I think Pead has a major playmaking edge on Ronnie Hillman. Jacquizz is a mediocre talent and a third-down back, a species constantly overvalued in fantasy leagues.

Among other backs currently going in rounds 7-11, I’d target Jahvid Best (once he gets clearance from doctors), Stevan Ridley (in the Green-Ellis role), Peyton Hillis (better player in the Thomas Jones role), Jonathan Stewart (talent-wise, a top-5 back in the entire league) and Mark Ingram (see above).

<!--RW-->@ericktumang: “Who do you think will be the best receiver in this class long-term?”

Justin Blackmon. His production will suffer while GM Gene Smith stubbornly sticks to the Blaine Gabbert experiment over the next year or two, but I think he will end up with the best career of this year’s batch. Like Dez Bryant and Hakeem Nicks, he combines velcro hands with dominant run-after-catch ability.

For what it’s worth, I’d also draft Kendall Wright, Brian Quick and perhaps Alshon Jeffery over Michael Floyd. The latter’s fantasy production will be deflated as the second fiddle to Larry Fitzgerald. Wright is an exciting playmaker and Jeffery is better than he was given credit for during the pre-draft cattle call.

@mj_baroz: “Is Joseph Morgan this year’s Victor Cruz?”

Morgan will have my attention if he pushes for the No. 3 job in New Orleans this summer, but I see several major differences between the two. Whereas Morgan returned a punt for a touchdown in one preseason game and hauled in a 56-yard score in the next, Cruz exploded for six receptions, 145 yards and three touchdowns in a dominant preseason debut, showing incredible ball skills, plenty of speed and outstanding body control. Cruz had also earned gushing praise from the usually reticent coach Tom Coughlin throughout his rookie training camp whereas the majority of Morgan hype had come via beat writers. Finally, Cruz had an easier path to significant targets with Steve Smith gone and Mario Manningham banged up. Morgan won’t bypass Jimmy Graham, Darren Sproles and Marques Colston in the pecking order.

@ScottKlein79: “In a 16 team dynasty league & weak at WR. Who is the best stash? R.Cooper, K.Durham, Marvin Jones, Joe Morgan, K.Martin or McNutt.”

I’d go 1. Morgan, 2. McNutt, 3. M. Jones 4. K. Martin, 5. Cooper, 6. Durham.

See above on Morgan. I wouldn’t take Jones higher than the third round in rookie drafts. Several people whom I trust are high enough on his college film to make the top half of this, however. I question Cooper’s instincts every time I see him play; McNutt looks like a better long-term stash to me. Durham looks like nothing more than a red-zone specialist in a best-case scenario.

@sdrex18: “Dynasty league QB: Luck or Griffin?”

I covered this one in-depth a few months ago. I think both are can’t-miss prospects and the top duo to enter the league since Adrian Peterson and Calvin Johnson a half-decade ago. Risk-averse owners should go for Luck as the sure thing. Those willing to gamble should roll the dice on Griffin’s upside.

@aggs82: “If you own Rivers with a win-now young team in keeper/dynasty, how much of a play do you make for Luck/RG3?”

I’d make a strong play for Luck/Griffin unless I owned Aaron Rodgers, Cam Newton or Matthew Stafford. Rivers isn’t giving you an advantage over the other owners in the league right now. Luck and RGIII have a chance to do that. Purse the rookies aggressively.

@Joey_Mitch: “Alex Green's upside? Colin Kaepernick sneaky buy in dynasty circles with WR corps improving this year?”

We don’t have enough NFL tape on Green to confidently assess his upside. Coming off ACL surgery, I’m not expecting much in 2012. I suspect he’ll be a tandem back, mostly handling passing downs, in 2013 and beyond. I do believe, though, that he has a higher career upside than James Starks.

I like Kaepernick as a Dynasty stash if he’s available on the cheap. I’d rather carry him than Alex Smith, since the latter is a weekly disadvantage in fantasy. Kaepernick’s athleticism makes him intriguing, though I suspect he’ll never have the accuracy to succeed as a franchise quarterback.

@nlau73: “Better keeper this year in standard league, Brandon Marshall or Dez Bryant?”

I’m taking Dez. Higher upside, especially in touchdowns (Marshall has scored more than seven TDs just once in his six-year career). Marshall has been on my “do not touch” list for years. That won’t change considering receivers often struggle upon changing teams. For those keeping score at home, Marshall has 17 police-related incidents since college. Bryant has two. That's not to mention Marshall's nasty habit of coach-killing and throwing quarterbacks under the proverbial bus. No thanks. I'll pass.

@therockshane45: “Which has better upside for this year only? Michael Turner or Frank Gore?”

Yikes. Two players on the wrong side of my Sleepers & Busts column for the Football Draft Guide. Forced to pick my poison, I’d go with Turner for the greater shot at double-digit scores. The two backs actually caught the same number of passes last season, and Gore may have to contend with Brandon Jacobs at the goal line this time around.

@therockshane45: “Who has more upside in a dynasty, Anquan Boldin or Reggie Wayne?”

After two years of data on the Flacco-to-Boldin connection, we know it doesn’t quite produce reliable WR3 value on a weekly basis. I’d rather wager that Luck-to-Wayne can produce at a more consistent level for the next couple of years.

<!--RW-->@tigervixxxen: “It’s difficult finding advice for a 20 team league. Who would be good targets for picks 14 & 26 in such league?”

I never go into a draft preparing to do anything more than select the best player available at the position of greatest value when my slot comes up. I’d bump up value for RB1s and QB1s slightly, however. If a Darren McFadden or Trent Richardson falls to 14, I’d jump on it. Same with Tom Brady or Drew Brees. I’d target Michael Vick at 26; he’s incredibly undervalued.

@JasonJones99: “Would you trade Adrian Peterson for Trent Richardson in a 10-man keeper league?”

I’m not prepared to make that trade yet, so the answer is no. If I’m going to give up the best running back in the game, I need to be sure that Richardson is a special talent as opposed to the next Ronnie Brown.

@Ty_In_StL: “I have Demaryius Thomas, he cost me my 5th rd pick. Should I consider him my WR2 or go after someone else for that spot?”

Thomas’ current ADP is mid-fourth round, so you’re still getting value by forfeiting a fifth. Rotoworld ranks Thomas 14th at wide receiver. He’s a fine WR2 with greater risk and reward potential with the others in his tier.

@aphendri: “Can only keep 2 in PPR league. Ray Rice for a 1st, Jimmy Graham for an 8th, or Jennings for a 3rd?”

I’d keep Rice and Graham. Rice will stabilize your running backs at his going rate while Graham is a monster advantage six rounds after his ADP. Jennings should be going in the third round anyway, so it’s not really in your favor to carry him over.

@OSUBieds: “Calvin Johnson or Ray Rice as my keeper? 12 team standard league with 11th pick, no time limit set for keeper.”

@JasonDGolden: “One keeper PPR league: Calvin, Rice or Cam? I have Julio too. Rank ‘em.”

1. Calvin, 2. Rice, 3. Julio, 4. Cam

All four very close in value. Considering talent and situation, Calvin has the most stable long-term value of any player in keeper and Dynasty formats. Averaging 400+ touches over the past three years, Rice is overdue for a few missed games due to injury. Julio gets the slight edge over Cam due to quarterbacks losing value in the PPR format.

@FootballBat1975: “First year keeper league. Only keep 3. I pick 7th. Looks like Rodgers/Brady/Brees/McCoy/Foster/Rice will be gone. Who do you pick @ 7?”

Calvin Johnson. See above. You want the most dominant offensive weapon on your roster year-in and year-out for the foreseeable future.

@NoleKennedy: “Pick 1 keeper, 0.5ppr, lose round drafted in, 6 points all TDs. Stafford (8), Murray (14), AJ Green (6), Redman (16), Hernandez (16)."

I don’t think you can go wrong with Stafford, Green or Hernandez at those prices. Murray is fine value, too, though I’m not convinced he’ll stay healthy long-term. Redman isn’t even in the discussion. Gun to my head, I’d go with Stafford in the Lions’ shotgun-heavy offense for the next few years.

@M__P__K: “Would you trade LeSean McCoy (4th) for Jamaal Charles (10th) and DeMarco Murray (12th)? 0.5 ppr and we keep 4. I need another keeper.”

As a general rule, the owner walking away with the quality wins the trade over the owner walking away with quantity. My inclination would be to keep the bird in the hand (McCoy) and beat the bushes for another keeper by going a different route. No need to trade a stud just to come up with a fourth keeper. Get creative with an owner that has a surplus.

@mscalese: “Keeper league with $200 budget. DJax $26, Julio Jones $24, SRice $8, LRobinson $8, Cobb $4, TYoung $4. In what order do you keep?”

1. Julio Jones $24, 2. Sidney Rice $8, 3. Cobb $4, 4. Titus Young $4, 5. DeSean Jackson $26, 6. Laurent Robinson $8

I want Julio on as many redraft, Dynasty and keeper rosters as possible. He’s going to explode. I would flip Cobb and Rice in a pure Dynasty league, but the latter has a far greater chance to be a weekly asset in 2012. I prefer Cobb’s talent to Young’s. Jackson is a fine bet for a bounce-back season, but that’s not worth $26. Robinson isn’t going to stay healthy or finish with even half of last year’s 11 touchdowns.

@antisheriff: “Rank these for PPR Dynasty: Randle, Gordon, Sanu, Broyles, Pierce, Lamar Miller, Marvin Jones, Toon, Childs. Thanks.”

1. Miller, 2. Randle, 3. Gordon, 4. Broyles, 5. Toon, 6. Childs, 7. Sanu, 8. Pierce, 9. Jones

@mj_baroz: “Has any team greatly improved their outlook as a DEF/ST in fantasy?”

Eagles, Seahawks, Bills, Cardinals

Don’t forget the Eagles were arguably the NFL’s best team over the final month of the regular season. The defense allowed just 46 points over the final four games, the defensive personnel has improved thanks to the DeMeco Ryans trade and a strong draft, and rookie return dynamo Damaris Johnson is the NCAA’s all-time record holder in all-purpose yards.

The defenses of Seattle and Arizona were greatly improved down the stretch as well, and the Cardinals boast the most explosive punt return in the league. The Bills added more defensive talent than any team in the league this offseason.

 

[HacheMan]

Choosing between Thomas, Decker

With Peyton Manning at QB in Denver, which WR benefits more is a hot debate

By James Quintong | ESPN.com

Who will have the better fantasy season: Demaryius Thomas or Eric Decker?

The Denver Broncos have a pair of third-year wide receivers poised to make a major impact this season in Demaryius Thomas and Eric Decker. They were already trending in the right direction based on their development last season, and their outlooks became even sunnier when the Broncos added Peyton Manning in the offseason.


If the combination of Thomas and Decker could have their moments with Kyle Orton and Tim Tebow at quarterback, just imagine what they could do with a healthy Manning running the show. Broncos fans are having flashbacks of Rod Smith and Ed McCaffrey, who each had 1,000-yard seasons from 1998-2000.


Decker led the Broncos in 2011 with 44 catches, 612 yards and eight touchdowns. He was tied for 34th among receivers in fantasy scoring (ESPN standard settings), matching more established receivers such as Malcom Floyd and Santonio Holmes. Decker's numbers faded badly after a nice start, as he had just seven catches for 85 yards and zero touchdowns from Weeks 13-17. Consistency was also an issue, as he had eight games with two or fewer fantasy points.


His drop-off was somewhat tied to Tebow replacing Orton at quarterback in Week 7. While Decker had a stretch of three straight games with a touchdown with Tebow at the helm, he also had seven of those two-point-or-fewer fantasy performances.

Thomas didn't make his 2011 debut until Week 7 as he recovered from a torn Achilles tendon. He finished with 32 catches for 551 yards (a whopping 17.2 yards per catch) and four touchdowns during the regular season. He made even more waves in the playoffs when he went for 204 yards and the 80-yard touchdown in overtime to upset the Pittsburgh Steelers. However, Thomas didn't make much of a fantasy impact until a 144-yard, two-touchdown outburst against the Vikings in Week 13. That effort spurred a strong finish, as Thomas had 25 catches for 448 yards and three scores in the final five weeks of the regular season. Thomas and Decker essentially swapped fantasy value at that point.


While Thomas emerged as the big-play wideout late last season (nine catches of 20-plus yards), Decker had the ability for big plays as well, with five of his eight touchdowns being 25 yards or more in length.


In terms of physical tools, Thomas has the upper hand. He was a first-round draft pick in 2010 (ahead of Tebow, no less) in large part because of his size and speed. But Thomas' receiving skills are relatively raw, as he has played just 21 regular-season NFL games in two seasons and came from a run-heavy offense at Georgia Tech. Thomas even said in a radio interview in June that he'll have to get used to running the full route tree with Manning at the helm. He didn't have to be as precise with his route-running in college or early in his NFL career, with the erratic Tebow throwing him the ball. It will take far more than pure physical ability for Thomas to succeed with Manning, who can be very particular with his receivers.

Decker came into the league as a far more polished receiver. While he is not the physical specimen Thomas is, he has plenty of size (6-foot-3, 218 pounds) and speed, being used as a punt returner. Plus he got a leg up during the offseason, as he had extra workout time with Manning after he joined the Broncos while Thomas was recovering from offseason surgery to remove pins from his thumb. The extra time together looks to be apparent from training camp, where Decker has starred in early practices.


There's lots of time for Manning to click with both receivers, but Decker looks to be the one to get more looks at least early on. He might be the more consistent and safer option of the two. Thomas has plenty of upside and could have his share of big games, especially since there should be lots of passes to go around with a healthy Manning running the show. For now, Decker will also serve as the team's primary punt returner, which could mean extra points from a special teams touchdown or return yards (if your league counts that).


In early live draft results, Thomas is being taken approximately in the seventh round and Decker in the eighth. They both have lots of upside and the differences could be slight in the long run, but Decker appears to be the better value.

 

[HacheMan]

Will Reggie Bush repeat 2011 success?

Eric Karabell


Miami Dolphins running back Reggie Bush finished 12th in standard scoring among running backs last season. He was one of 15 running backs to rush for more than 1,000 yards, and of that group nobody averaged more yards per rush than he did, at 5.0. Unlike Michael Turner, Bush isn't 30 years old. Unlike Frank Gore, he isn't part of a team that openly discussed a potentially reduced workload and brought in immediate help. Unlike Darren Sproles, Bush is not dependent on receptions. So why are Turner, Gore and Sproles ranked higher and being drafted ahead of Reggie Bush?Sometimes it takes more than one breakthrough season to convince people that past negative factors have disappeared. In Bush's case, durability had never been a strong point, but he also didn't seem to possess the running style and power to warrant more than 200 rushing attempts. While injuries and team offensive strategy (we know now) were surely a factor, Bush totaled 212 rushing attempts his final three seasons with the New Orleans Saints. Expecting 216 chances in his first season with Miami, considering the franchise chose Daniel Thomas in the second round of the draft, was folly.

Well, it happened and now we're faced with analyzing Bush's chances of a repeat campaign. I ranked him similarly to ESPN Fantasy, just outside the top 20 running backs and 50th overall, which based on what we knew heading into the 2011 season, and for a standard scoring league, is pretty good. I'd selected Bush in point-per-reception formats earlier than that before, but in a standard league, no way. Then the fellow starts 15 games for a bad team and becomes a fantasy stalwart and reliable playoff/December option, and does so with a modest workload receiving the ball. In retrospect it makes little sense.


Bush closed his 2011 season in Weeks 13-16 with four consecutive 100-yard rushing efforts, one of them a 203-yard explosion at Buffalo, and averaged 16 fantasy points per game. This wasn't Aaron Rodgers or even Billy Volek (from 2004, if you recall) single-handedly winning people fantasy championships, but you probably didn't draft or sign Bush because you expected he'd start for your fantasy team in December. His lone missed game came in the Week 17 finale, when half the key players sit. Frankly, Bush could have been a top-five fantasy running back for the season if he had been used more in September and October; from Weeks 2 through 7, he totaled 18 fantasy points. From Week 8 on, Bush outscored overall No. 5 running back Turner by 32 fantasy points, No. 8 running back Sproles by 42 points and No. 9 option Ryan Mathews by 46 points.


Can we be sure Bush will put on the same type of show this season as he did in 2011? Of course there are no guarantees, but I'd say he went a long way toward changing minds by staying healthy and producing at a higher level as a pure running back than most thought remotely possible. I know I didn't expect this. I thought the Dolphins would rely on the larger, albeit more inexperienced and apparently too-raw rookie Thomas to be their main ball carrier, but that never really came to fruition. Like many rookies, Thomas, a second-rounder from Kansas State who went 76th in ESPN average live drafts while afterthought Bush went 94th, plodded his way to 3.5 yards per carry and did not score a rushing touchdown.


It's premature to give up on Thomas, but the Dolphins certainly sent a sign his way when they selected Lamar Miller out of Miami in the fourth round. Also, rumor has it former Houston Texans surprise Steve Slaton is very much in play for third-down duties, since like Bush he's smaller in stature and a proven receiver from the backfield. Now it's a crowded backfield, except Bush is clearly atop the depth chart. I doubt Miller plays a significant role in the Miami offense this season. I also doubt Slaton gets many rushes. There's always the risk that new coach Joe Philbin turns into Mike Shanahan of the south and changes running backs on a whim, but I doubt that. Philbin knows how productive Bush was in 2011.

I'm preparing myself to admit by Week 3 or 4 that I undersold Bush for 2012 drafts, but for now he remains just on the outside of my top 20 at running back. There is, however, top-10 potential here. It's also possible he gets used quite a bit more as a receiver than last year, when he caught only 43 passes, and nine of those came in Week 1, before he really emerged. Bush caught 34 passes his final 14 games. He caught 34 passes in the first five games of his career in 2006.


Anyway, I don't like to assume bad health for someone who either was healthy last year or played through any problems. Perhaps this is a skill Bush suddenly possesses. Why can't we get 15 games again? Why can't we get more than 1,300 total yards and top-10 productivity? Well, we can. My initial rank of No. 21 at running back shows I'm a bit skeptical of the health part and also the team's quarterback play might not improve, but I'm hoping I'm selling him short. Choosing Bush late in the fifth round, with Thomas outside the top 100, feels about right.

 

[HacheMan]

Jumping off the Page
As of Monday evening, every NFL team had commenced training camp practices. Things really picked up over the weekend, though, with a number of intriguing depth chart developments and on-field performances that you might have missed.

So here's a refresher on the top-ten skill-position players generating league-wide buzz while making a run up fantasy football rankings.

Editor's Note: Speaking of fantasy rankings, ours are accessible here.

1. Bucs running back Doug Martin

The Money Quote: "It doesn't take an expert to see that rookie running back Doug Martin looks -- at least for now -- like the Bucs' primary running back." -- Tampa Bay Times.

Our post-draft intuition told us rookie coach Greg Schiano didn't trade up into the first round for LeGarrette Blount's change-of-pace back, and the depth chart to open training camp confirmed that Martin is the Bucs' new starter. Martin has impressed observers with his short-area burst and lateral open-field elusiveness while dominating first-team and passing-drill reps. According to Pewter Report, Blount "split time in a backup role and received fewer reps than Martin" during Sunday's training camp practice, "and just slightly more than Mossis Madu and Michael Smith."

Pewter Report went so far as to suggest Blount is already being "disciplined" by Schiano's hard-line coaching staff. The incumbent was the last back in line during Sunday's drills.

Assuming he doesn't suddenly tank in camp or preseason games, the polished, versatile Martin will offer an impressively high fantasy "floor." At the very worst, he'd share early-down work with Blount and handle all passing downs. Playing behind the NFL's highest-paid offensive line in a power-based, run-first offense, Martin will be an every-week RB2 to open the season. His ADP currently at the top of round four, don't be surprised if Martin is a second-rounder by late August.

2. Packers wide receiver Randall Cobb

The Money Quote: "Judging by Cobb’s eye-catching start in training camp this year, it will be impossible to keep him off the field in Year 2. ... Through three days of practice, he’s made more big plays and been used in a greater variety of ways than any of their other receivers." -- Green Bay Press-Gazette.

"What's not to like about him?" said CB Tramon Williams. "Versatility. Can do everything. I think there's going to be a lot of opportunity for him." Chimed in the Press-Gazette's Pete Dougherty, "there's every reason to think he'll be (the Packers') No. 1 slot receiver this year."

"Opportunity" is the buzz word as Cobb seeks to carve out a consistent role in a receiving group that already features Greg Jennings, Jordy Nelson, and Jermichael Finley, with James Jones and Donald Driver behind them. It's important to remember that one of Green Bay's primary methods of greatness is a refusal to let declining players "block" budding young stars. GM Ted Thompson has been willing to move on a year too early, if need be. (See Brett Favre, Cullen Jenkins, Aaron Kampman, Nick Barnett, Al Harris, and the list goes on.) If Cobb earns the snaps, he'll get them.

3. Patriots running back Stevan Ridley

The Money Quote: "WHO'S HOT: Stevan Ridley continues to look fast and decisive and really comfortable in the offense." -- Comcast SportsNet New England.

In an ESPN Boston item entitled "Ridley in position for top role," trusty beat reporter Mike Reiss noted that the second-year back out of LSU has "often" been first in line in running back drills, occupying the driver's seat for BenJarvus Green-Ellis' old lead rushing role. WEEI Boston confirmed Ridley "has been the primary back used with the first team," with Danny Woodhead as the change of pace and Shane Vereen just trying to hold off UDFA Brandon Bolden. On more than one occasion, we've seen it written that Ridley is "working with the Brady group."

In June, I charted and wrote up Ridley's two highest rookie-year workloads, and found him to be a violent, natural inside-the-tackles runner.. Ridley is going to replace Green-Ellis, and then some.

While "Law Firm" excelled with ball security and short-yardage efficiency, Ridley possesses more big-play ability and speed to get the corner than his predecessor. And he's just as tough to tackle. BJGE was an annual double-digit TD scorer for New England. Ridley's weekly consistency may be similarly specious, but he will average more yards per carry and stands to score just as much.

4. Broncos wide receiver Eric Decker

The Money Quote: "Too bad for Peyton Manning and Eric Decker the regular season is still six weeks away. The quarterback and receiver are working together like they were ready yesterday." -- Denver Post.

Chris Wesseling nailed this before camp even started. Decker's route-running chops have made him Manning's favorite practice target, ahead of more highly touted Demaryius Thomas. Per beat writer Mike Klis, Manning "appears to be in sync with Decker" but "could use more time" with Thomas. Time and practice reps are on Thomas' side, but Decker looks like the safer fantasy pick -- particularly in PPR leagues -- for the time being. Thomas probably still offers the most upside.

Keep in mind that Manning's timing with his receivers has always been of an utmost importance. It's why he used to prefer Austin Collie to Pierre Garcon. It's why he loved Brandon Stokley. Those guys were always in the right place at the right time. Decker seems like he'll be one of those guys.

5. Patriots wide receiver Brandon Lloyd

The Money Quote: "Some might say there have been shades of 2007's offensive fireworks on the practice fields. ... (Lloyd) looks like he's been playing with quarterback Tom Brady for a decade." -- ESPN Boston.

Lloyd shredded non-contact OTAs and minicamps, and his head-turning performances filled with highlight-reel receptions have translated to the live practice field. Brady confirmed that Lloyd has a stranglehold on New England's offense, seeing as he spent two and a half of the past three years in Josh McDaniels' system. Fantasy fanatics concerned with "mouths to feed" should fear not. McDaniels will run a more vertical-oriented attack than outgoing OC Bill O'Brien's, and Lloyd is the Patriots' new vertical weapon. He's also McDaniels' boy. McD will scheme to get Lloyd the rock.

Plus, pass attempts haven't been an issue in Foxboro for several years. This organization believes in throwing the football, and pass targets will be aplenty. Lloyd offers mini-Moss '07 upside at the reasonable ADP cost of a fifth-round fantasy pick.
<!--RW-->

6. Lions running back Kevin Smith

The Money Quote: "We have a lot of confidence in him. He's made a lot of plays for us. If he's out there, we know he can make plays." -- Lions head coach Jim Schwartz.

Smith's durability will be a concern until he proves capable of staying healthy for an extended stretch, but at the moment he's the only healthy, decent back in Lions training camp. And, for now at least, that counts for something. Mikel Leshoure can't shake the lingering effects of his 2011 Achilles' tendon tear, and Jahvid Best (concussion) can't get clearance to resume playing ball.

There are three Detroit media outlets that closely follow the Lions. They've all called Smith the favorite to start in Week 1. Here's the Detroit News calling Smith the "frontrunner" to start on Opening Day. And MLive.com deeming Smith "likely" to break camp as the Lions' starter. Dave Birkett of the Detroit Free Press tweeted Sunday that Smith should be "the guy ... if you (have) got a fantasy draft today."

And ESPN NFC North blogger Kevin Seifert is on board, too.

Smith's Average Draft Position is rising. It was the 13th round over the weekend, and is already up to the latter portion of the 11th. Consider Smith a fantasy value pick anywhere in the double digits.

7. Vikings tight end Kyle Rudolph

The Money Quote: "Kyle Rudolph was pretty much option Nos. 1, 3 and 5 today. Looked more athletic than last year, when slowed by the hamstring injury. Getting downfield a little faster now. Smooth coming out of breaks." -- Friday's St. Paul Pioneer Press.

The tight end position looks shallow and top heavy in fantasy this season. Rob Gronkowski and Jimmy Graham are clearly the cream of the crop. They tilt weekly scoring because they produce so much more than everyone else. Behind Graham and Gronk, Antonio Gates, Aaron Hernandez, Vernon Davis, and Jermichael Finley can keep you competitive. Then, there's a drop off. Fred Davis, Jason Witten, Jacob Tamme, and Tony Gonzalez are nice names, but you're at a weekly disadvantage if one of them is your starter, and you're going against Graham or Gronkowski. Behind those ten tight ends, the likes of Dustin Keller, Brent Celek, and Jared Cook are not TE1s. Brandon Pettigrew is a borderline starter in PPR leagues. He is a poor option in standard scoring.

Rudolph's ADP is undrafted, and he has the potential to be Minnesota's No. 2 pass option, behind Percy Harvin. If early camp is any indication, Vikings OC Bill Musgrave will use Rudolph all over the formation, creating mismatches as a catch-first weapon. Rudolph also blocks well enough to be an every-down player. If Christian Ponder makes second-year strides, it's not crazy to think Rudolph could push for third-tier tight end statistics in the range of Witten, Tamme, and Gonzo.

8. Rams running back Steven Jackson

The Money Quote: "Yeah. I actually see him being a backup. If it's the way I want it ... I will continue to be the workhorse. He can relieve me at times during the game, or when we need a change of pace against the defense. ... I'm looking at 25 to 30, plus touches a game." -- Jackson on PFT Live, discussing Rams second-round pick Isaiah Pead.

Just as Jackson reported to camp, he tweeted that he's down to 234.8 pounds and 5.1 percent body fat. Entering his age-29 season as the NFL's active leader in rushing attempts, Jackson shed 10 pounds from last year, intent on maintaining his every-down back role. S-Jax dropped the weight by removing eggs, salmon, broccoli, pork, vanilla, and guacamole from his diet. "My energy feels up," Jackson says. "I feel alive."

The Rams began practices on Sunday, and camp observer Mike Sando -- ESPN's NFC West blogger -- noted that Jackson's "quickness was apparent" on the first day of drills. "We should expect the Rams to continue feeding Jackson at a high rate," Sando wrote, days earlier. "... I would think Jackson, with two seasons remaining on his contract, should be able to carry a heavy load in 2012."

New Rams coach Jeff Fisher has never been afraid to overwork running backs, regardless of age. He did it most recently with Chris Johnson. Before that, Eddie George. And George gives us a bit of a datapoint. In his own age-29 campaign with Fisher as head coach, George ran the football 343 times and caught 36 passes. He scored 14 touchdowns.

9. Titans quarterback Jake Locker

The Money Quote: "Both quarterbacks looked sharp tonight, but I was really impressed with Jake Locker, who finished 10-of-14 in team drills. Showed poise and zip on (the) ball." -- Jim Wyatt of the Nashville Tennessean.

The Titans didn't hold their first media-access practice until Sunday night. It was Locker earning high marks out of the gate by outperforming Matt Hasselbeck in drills. While Hasselbeck and Locker will split practice reps down the middle all camp, Locker's performance appeared to earn him the first-team nod on Monday. Locker began the second open practice as the Titans' starter.

Through two practices conducted with media members allowed, Locker has completed 17 of his 25 pass attempts on the first-team offense. Hasselbeck is 11-of-22 with a pair of interceptions. Training camp passing stats are essentially worthless, but they do reflect that Locker is throwing the football well. We already knew he was a big-time athlete with unwavering pocket presence and a rocket arm.

Coach Mike Munchak plans to name a starter before the third preseason game (Aug. 23). While spring speculation almost universally sided with Hasselbeck, the talent differential between the upstart youngster and in-decline veteran is tremendous. I am convinced that Locker will be given every opportunity to play on Opening Day. And his hot start to camp can only help his chances.

10. Chargers tight end Antonio Gates

The Money Quote: "Antonio Gates running with no limp after a 2011 season spent with constant foot pain, and smiling almost every time he took his helmet off, and saying afterward, I appreciate my health so much now that I've got it back.'" -- MMQB.

Camp reports from SI's Peter King, the Union-Tribune San Diego, and the North County Times have all indicated Gates is as "healthy as ever" and has overcome his 2010-2011 feet problems. Battling a plantar fascia tear, Gates missed nine games over those two seasons and was often ineffective when he was in the lineup. But I am buying the notion that Gates is past that.

I saw it with my own eyes.

During my offseason re-watching of Darrius Heyward-Bey's 2011 games, the Chargers' Week 17 matchup with the Raiders stood out. Gates was nothing short of terrific. He moved as fluidly as ever and didn't favor the foot. He was healthy then, and he's healthy now. Gates' rear end is as big as ever, but that might help him, boxing out linebackers and safeties like a power forward.

Gates will be Philip Rivers' No. 1 pass option this year, and I think he will score enough to rank third among fantasy tight ends, behind Graham and Gronk. I'd draft Gates early in the fifth round.

Honorable Mentions: Bucs receiver Vincent Jackson, Browns receiver Josh Gordon, Steelers receiver Emmanuel Sanders, Cardinals running back Ryan Williams, Saints receiver Adrian Arrington, Bears receiver Alshon Jeffery, Jets running back Bilal Powell, Seahawks receiver Golden Tate, Redskins receiver Leonard Hankerson, Chiefs receiver Jonathan Baldwin.

 

[HacheMan]

How to value Panthers RB tandem

Time-share complicates matters for Stewart, Williams in fantasy football

By AJ Mass | ESPN.com

Are Jonathan Stewart and DeAngelo Williams unstartable in fantasy because they are teammates?

There's no question that the Carolina Panthers know how to run the ball. Since 2008, when DeAngelo Williams took over as the team's No. 1 rushing option and Jonathan Stewart stepped in as the "change of pace" No. 2 running back, the team's ground attack has consistently been one of the best in all of football. The numbers speak for themselves:


Carolina Panthers Rushing, Past 4 Seasons

<table><thead><tr><th> Year </th><th> Rushes </th><th> Yards </th><th> TD </th><th> Rush YPG </th><th> NFL Rank </th></tr><tbody><tr class="last"><td> 2008 </td><td> 504 </td><td> 2437 </td><td> 30 </td><td> 152.3 </td><td> 3 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 2009 </td><td> 525 </td><td> 2498 </td><td> 18 </td><td> 156.1 </td><td> 3 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 2010 </td><td> 428 </td><td> 1846 </td><td> 7 </td><td> 115.4 </td><td> 13 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 2011 </td><td> 445 </td><td> 2408 </td><td> 26 </td><td> 150.5 </td><td> 3 </td></tr></tbody></table>



The struggles of 2010 were a bit of an anomaly, primarily because Williams hurt his foot and needed to be placed on injured reserve after only six games. Jonathan Stewart also got hurt during the season, missing several weeks with a head injury. Few teams would be able to post solid numbers when forced to go that deep on their depth chart.


Healthy again in 2011, the combination of Williams and Stewart once again ran roughshod over the league. Carolina has an incredibly solid offensive line, anchored by Pro Bowl center Ryan Kalil, which helped the Panthers' rushing attack, spearheaded by their dynamic duo, to lead the NFL in 2011 with 5.4 yards per carry.


So why aren't fantasy owners salivating over Williams and Stewart? Part of the problem is that while the numbers they post together are incredibly impressive, taken separately you never know which one of the two is going to be the one to start in any given week.


In 2011, Stewart had six games with double-digit carries, and no more than 14 in any single week. Williams had nine games of double-digit carries, with no more than 15 in any given week. Stewart had seven games in which he scored double-digit fantasy points and Williams had six.
Combined, the two backs would have finished No. 3 overall among running backs, behind only Ray Rice and LeSean McCoy in ESPN standard scoring. As it stands, Stewart ended the year with 133 points, good enough only for 25th overall at the position. Williams was five points behind his teammate at No. 26. Even in a 12-team league, neither back earned enough points to be considered worthy of starting regularly in a two-RB lineup.


On their own, either player would be far more valuable. Together, neither one does enough.

In terms of touchdowns per touch, among all players with at least 100 touches (rushes plus receptions), Williams ranked 16th overall, and Stewart was a little bit further back at 33rd on the list. Unfortunately, both played on a team with quarterback Cam Newton.


Not only did Newton score 14 touchdowns from scrimmage, far and away the most from any signal-caller -- Mark Sanchez and Tim Tebow tied for second on the season with six each -- but his prolific scoring, one every 9.1 touches, was the highest rate of any NFL player last year. Not only did Williams and Stewart get in each other's way in terms of scoring opportunity, but with Newton's legs entering the equation, the available pie got a whole lot smaller.


In 2012, that pie will get smaller still. Mike Tolbert, who ended last season with 137 fantasy points, one spot higher than the Carolina duo, signed with the team in the offseason as "insurance." Tolbert could easily get some looks in the red zone, as he ranked No. 8 in touchdowns per touch last season and had seven scores on rushes from inside the 10-yard line. (Cam Newton had nine such scores, while Stewart had three and Williams only two.)


They say that two heads are better than one, but when it comes to Carolina's backfield, "Double Trouble" is simply too much of a headache to put up with on a weekly basis. Sure, at the end of the season the combination of backs should once again elevate the team's rushing game into one of the fiercest ground attacks in the league, with or without Cam Newton's contributions taken into consideration.


However, while the Panthers may give you more than 100 yards and two rushing scores per game all season long, it's not always going to come from any one source. Start Stewart one week, and that's the game he goes for just 20 yards, while Williams rushes for 115 yards and a touchdown. Go with the hot hand the next week and shake your head sadly as Stewart outscores his teammate 12-4.


It's been that way before and it will be that way again. Unless and until one of these backs gets traded or chooses to leave via free agency for greener pastures, neither Williams nor Stewart can be relied upon on a regular basis as anything more than a roll-of-the-dice play. For now, selecting either back in the first two dozen picks at the position -- starter level in a 12-team league -- is sheer folly.

 

[HacheMan]

Rise of the Youth
Last season, Victor Cruz began the year behind Mario Manningham and Domenik Hixon. Jordy Nelson was looking up at Donald Driver. Donald Brown was buried beneath Joseph Addai, while Laurent Robinson was behind Kevin Ogletree and Jesse Holley.

Jermichael Finley was once stuck behind Donald Lee. Jacob Tamme was overshadowed by Dallas Clark. Jamaal Charles had to push Larry Johnson aside…and later Thomas Jones. Arian Foster was on the practice squad to open the 2009 season…

You get the point.

Veterans who are either on the decline or simply underwhelming talents can sometimes hinder a young athlete’s playing time, capping his fantasy ceiling in a given season. As shown in the examples above, however, these “buried” players cannot be overlooked on draft day.

Today, I’ll be taking a look at six current depth chart battles. In all six cases, a veteran is currently holding down a prominent position on his team’s depth chart; a position a young player needs to grab hold of in order to enjoy a breakout 2012 campaign.

Also included are two possible outcomes to each competition: a ‘likely outcome’ and a ‘bold possibility’. Keep an eye on these six battles throughout training camp and you may find yourself with a gem on draft day.

Snap data provided by ProFootballFocus.com

Lions Wide Receiver

The Past: Nate Burleson
The Future: Titus Young

The Detroit coaches like Burleson quite a bit, but he’s due $4 million this season and under contract at an even higher cap hit each of the next two seasons. With Titus Young emerging as a competent outside threat opposite Calvin Johnson, the 30-year-old Burleson figures to be relied on less going forward.

The key difference from 2011 to 2012 will be the duo’s share of snaps in two-wide sets. Last year, Burleson played 964 snaps to Young’s 711. The reason Burleson held such a sizable edge (about 15 snaps-per-game) was because he was in the game opposite Johnson when the team went with only two wide receivers. Assuming he doesn’t take a step back in the next six weeks, it’s fair to expect Young to step into, at least, some of those snaps. It’s worth noting that Detroit did go with three-plus wideouts on the field 58 percent of the time (fourth highest in the league), so it’s not like Burleson won’t find the field. Of course, he’ll also have to deal with rookie Ryan Broyles, who, like Burleson, works primarily out of the slot.

Likely Outcome: It won’t take long for Young to seize No. 2 wide receiver duties this season, making him worth WR3 consideration. Burleson will be the primary slot man for a while, but Broyles will inevitably take over. Due $4.5 million in 2013, the Lions will look to trade Burleson before eventually cutting him next offseason.

Bold Possibility: Young and a healthy Broyles blow by Burleson during the preseason, allowing Detroit to make a move prior to Week 1. With Mikel Leshoure suspended and Jahvid Best’s health in question, they ship him to Denver for Knowshon Moreno. Burleson settles in as a capable slot man for Peyton Manning. Deon Butler is claimed off waivers from Seattle and slides in as Detroit’s No. 4 receiver.

Packers Wide Receiver

The Past: Donald Driver
The Future: Randall Cobb

The Packers renegotiated Driver’s contract this season to keep him around on a one-year, $2.3 million deal. That doesn’t necessarily guarantee him a roster spot, however, and he certainly can’t be counted on to reach the 500-snap mark again. With Greg Jennings and Jordy Nelson locked into the top two spots, sophomore Randall Cobb figures to eventually step into the No. 3 job this season. He, of course, has to deal with Driver and James Jones, but is clearly the superior talent of the trio.

64 percent of Driver’s pass routes came when he was lined up in the slot. The result was a 12.0 YPR and a 74 percent catch rate on 43 targets. In what should not be considered a coincidence, 63 percent of Cobb’s pass routes came from the slot. His results? A 14.9 YPR and 87 percent catch rate on 23 targets. With Greg Jennings dabbling in the slot a bit, there are snaps to be had on the outside, but Cobb and Driver figure to do most of their damage from the inside. One more note: Driver scored all seven of his touchdowns from the slot (and Cobb added one). There are scoring opportunities to be had here, as well.

Likely Outcome: Driver will make the team and steal snaps from superior players early on in the season. It won’t be long before Cobb emerges, however, putting himself on the WR3/4 radar. Driver will step into a part-time role, seeing most of his reps in the rare four-wide set. The 2012 season will be Driver’s last with Green Bay.

Bold Possibility: Driver simply isn’t up to the task of contributing to the Packers’ offense this season and is cut loose in favor of Diondre Borel and Tori Gurley. Wanting to make one last push for another Superbowl ring, Driver signs with the Steelers, who need veteran depth at the position with Mike Wallace still in holdout mode.

Chiefs Wide Receiver

The Past: Steve Breaston
The Future: Jonathan Baldwin

After signing a five-year deal with the Chiefs last offseason, Breaston was heavily-utilized in his first year with the team. Among the Chiefs’ offensive skill position players, he finished second in snaps to only Dwayne Bowe. Baldwin, meanwhile, saw his rookie season get off to a slow start after he hurt his thumb in an August fight with Thomas Jones. The injury cost him the first five games of the season, but he averaged 4.6 targets-per-game the rest of the way. That was well below Breaston’s seven-per-game during that same span. Both Breaston and Bowe project as outside receivers, but Breaston did move to the slot 38 percent of the time last year – his highest mark in four years. Baldwin moved inside only 28 percent of the time.

With Dwayne Bowe holding out, both players have been working as starters this offseason, but one will need to move inside in three-wide sets during the season. The key, as was the case with Young vs. Burleson, will be who is on the field in two-wide sets. This is even more relevant in Kansas City because the team is built around a run-first offense and figures to use more two-tight end sets. Baldwin, a first-round pick, struggled to a 41 percent catch rate as a rookie, but easily surpasses Breaston in upside.

Despite being owed $3.35 million (including a $1.3 million roster bonus), Breaston does not figure to be cut or traded for several reasons; one being Baldwin’s inexperience, another being Bowe’s holdout status and eventual departure, and third being the cap hit the Chiefs would take if he was cut loose.

Likely Outcome: Bowe has yet to sign his franchise tag, but is no longer eligible for an extension and doesn’t figure to miss any regular season action. Assuming that’s the case, Breaston will be the favorite to start opposite him in the early-season. A few weeks in, however, Baldwin will emerge as the superior receiving threat. He’ll take over as a starter. With Bowe unlikely to return in 2013, the team will give Baldwin every chance to prove he’s a capable No. 1 receiver.

Bold Possibility: Bowe continues his holdout into the regular season and Baldwin overtakes Breaston, essentially making him the team’s go-to receiver from the get-go. Baldwin catches 60 balls and scores six times, proving to be a capable WR2 going forward. Bowe signs with the Dolphins in the offseason and the Chiefs enter 2013 with Baldwin and Breaston on the outside and Devon Wylie in the slot.

Cardinals Tight End

The Past: Todd Heap
The Future: Rob Housler

The 32-year-old Heap was Arizona’s primary tight end when healthy last season, but he missed six games and saw his snaps tail off in January. Housler, meanwhile, was the team’s third-round pick a season ago and played sparingly in his rookie season, eclipsing 25 snaps only once. He struggled with drops (six on 24 targets), but clearly has the speed and athleticism to produce as a pass-catcher. It’s clear that the Cardinals’ coaching staff agrees, as Housler lined up in-line on only 48 percent of his snaps. Heap (59 percent in-line) dabbled in the slot as well, and quietly did a nice job as a run blocker. Jeff King is also in the mix, but is primarily a blocker and is currently dealing with a quadriceps injury. With youth on his side and the Cardinals badly in need of playmakers on offense, Housler will get a long look for a regular role in the Arizona offense.

Likely Outcome: Heap will get the early edge on the No. 1 job heading into the season, but he and Housler are essentially competing for the same role. It won’t be long before Housler takes over as the team’s primary pass-catching tight end. Heap and King will share reps as the team’s primary blocking tight end the rest of the way.

Bold Possibility: The team decides Housler is ready-to-roll as an every-down tight end and decides to cut Heap and save $2.15 million in salary in the process. Heap, in turn, heads back east to Philadelphia, where he signs on cheap to back-up Brent Celek.

Redskins Wide Receiver

The Past: Santana Moss
The Future: Leonard Hankerson

The Redskins made a big free agency splash at wide receiver this past offseason by signing both Pierre Garcon and Josh Morgan. The moves leaves Moss’ status as a starter up in the air and potentially stunts 2011 third-round pick Leonard Hankerson’s path to regular snaps. Moss lined up in the slot on just under 40 percent of his snaps last season, which is the most he’s been there in at least four years. He didn’t fare very well, either, hauling in only 44 percent of the 48 targets, compared to 60 percent of the 42 targets he saw out wide.

Garcon, Morgan, and Hankerson play primarily on the outside, however, which means Moss likely will have to handle a good percentage of his snaps from the slot this season. Hankerson, of course, is still recovering from hip surgery and could easily end up fourth on the depth chart by Week 1. Morgan has some experience in the slot and will help in that area, but it figures to be Moss’ primary role when the team goes without a second tight end or fullback. Garcon is all but locked in as the starting split end.

Likely Outcome: Garcon and Moss enter the season as starters with the latter moving to the slot in three-wide sets. Hankerson takes a few weeks to get going, but he eventually moves his way past 33-year-old Moss and solidifies his role as the team’s starting flanker. Moss and Morgan will rotate slot duties, while also spelling Hankerson as needed.

Bold Possibility: Moss proves that he’s no longer the player he once was and is cut prior to Week 1. Proven to be healthy by the team’s decision to dump Moss, Hankerson steps into the starting lineup opposite Garcon. Morgan is called on to handle slot duties. Moss, meanwhile, returns to the team that drafted him back in 2001, signing a one-year deal with the Jets.

Browns Tight End

The Past: Ben Watson
The Future: Jordan Cameron

An important part of the Browns’ underwhelming offense over the last two seasons, Watson is set to turn 32 this season and suffered three concussions last year. He saw 16 percent of the team’s targets when on the field and only Greg Little played more snaps among the squad’s backs, wideouts, and tight ends. Still, he was ineffective as a run blocker and missed the last three games of the season. With Evan Moore currently out of commission due to an undisclosed offseason injury, Cameron is making a strong push for the No. 2 job behind Watson. A fourth-round pick a year ago, Cameron played sparingly as a rookie, but the team is expecting him to take a big step forward in 2012. Moore, a receiving specialist, showed in 2011 that he can hold down his own when called on to play in-line, and could also stand in Cameron’s path to regular snaps. Alex Smith is also in the mix, but figures to work solely as a blocking specialist.

Likely Outcome: Entering a contract year, Watson will begin his final season in Cleveland as a starter. As the team begins to fall out of the playoff mix, however, Cameron and, to a lesser extent, Moore will take over a bulk portion of the reps. Coach Pat Shurmur will want to know if Cameron can hold down 60-plus snaps-per-game and he’ll get a long look. Cameron won’t be on the fantasy radar just yet.

Bold Possibility: Cameron and Moore prove to be superior options to Watson, allowing Cleveland to cut bait on his $2.88 million salary. Despite Cleveland’s improvements at wide receiver, Cameron still averages about six targets-per-game, leading to a 60-catch season and TE2 status. Watson, meanwhile, latches on in New York, where he forms a committee attack with Martellus Bennett.

 

[HacheMan]

Holdout History
Holdouts and the NFL go together like tea and crumpets.

You really can't blame the players for that. If I’m Maurice Jones-Drew and I see DeAngelo Williams get a five-year, $43 million contract in 2011, I’m not going to be happy. If I see Nuggets C JaVale McGee sign a four-year, $44 million deal, I’m going to be downright livid.

Football players know that the window of opportunity to cash in on their unique talents is tiny. Oftentimes, their only method of leverage is a holdout. This is not a new phenomenon by any stretch of the imagination. As we go back through the history of the league, we find some of the greatest players ever staging holdouts.

For our purposes, the key is to figure out how those holdouts affect seasons once these players report. Should Jones-Drew and Mike Wallace be downgraded on draft boards? Here’s a look at how seven fantasy-relevant players fared following their holdouts. I’ll draw some conclusions at the end.

CHRIS JOHNSON
Year of holdout: 2011
Background: Following the lockout, Johnson dug in and tried to get his rookie deal ripped up. The Titans didn’t end up caving until September 1, just 10 days before Week 1. He arrived in Nashville needing to learn new offensive coordinator Chris Palmer’s offense and simultaneously get in shape. CJ2K was expected to make good on the six-year, $55.26 million contract he signed.

How he fared: Johnson’s season was nothing short of an unmitigated disaster. Although most fantasy owners stuck with him as a top-three pick, he topped 100 yards just four times and was held to 34 rushing yards or less six times. He never appeared to be in tip-top shape and his effort was fairly questioned.

2010 stats: 100.56 total yards per game, 4.31 YPC, 12 total touchdowns, 16 games played
2011 stats: 91.56 total yards per game, 3.99 YPC, 4 total touchdowns, 16 games played

Editor's Note: To see exact projections for Chris Johnson's 2012 season, full running back rankings, exclusive columns and much more, check out the Draft Guide!

VINCENT JACKSON
Year of holdout: 2010
Background: Much like Mike Wallace, Jackson was a restricted free agent heading into the 2010 season. And just like the Steelers, the Chargers chose to play hardball. They tendered him for one year at $3.268 million and V-Jax was seeking a five-year deal worth $50 million. Jackson chose to sit out the first 10 games of the season, showing up for the final six games. That allowed him to accrue the season toward unrestricted free agency.

How he fared: The Chargers coaching staff didn’t hold any grudges. They were fully prepared to use him in a major role in his first game after reporting, Week 12. However, Jackson strained a calf three plays into that Week 12 game and ended up missing Week 13 completely. He appeared somewhat limited in Week 14. Then in Week 15, he went off for 112 yards and three touchdowns.

2009 stats: 4.53 catches per game, 77.8 yards per game, 9 touchdowns, 15 games played
2010 stats: 2.80 catches per game, 49.6 yards per game, 3 touchdowns, 5 games played

HINES WARD
Year of holdout: 2005
Background: Ward racked up four straight 1000-yard seasons between 2001-2004, establishing himself as one of the game’s best all-around wideouts. He actually considered holding out ahead of the 2004 season, but didn’t go through with it until 2005 -- when he was set to earn $1.67 million in the final year of his deal.

The details of the Steelers’ stance with Ward were unsurprisingly similar to the one they have taken with Mike Wallace. While Ward was holding out, the organization refused to even negotiate -- even though team leaders such as Jerome Bettis publicly pleaded for Ward to get a deal. Ward finally reported to camp on August 16, three weeks before Week 1. On September 5, he got a four-year, $25.83 million deal.

How he fared: Ward was already well-versed in the Steelers’ offense and stepped right in as the No. 1 receiver. He didn’t reach 1,000 yards, but did score 11 regular-season touchdowns and was named MVP of Super Bowl XL. Note that Wallace hasn’t been on the field to learn a new scheme under new coordinator Todd Haley.

2004 stats: 5.00 catches per game, 62.7 yards per game, 4 touchdowns, 16 games played
2005 stats: 4.60 catches per game, 65.0 yards per game, 11 touchdowns, 15 games played

JOEY GALLOWAY
Year of holdout: 1999
Background: During the first four years of his career, Galloway was unquestionably the league’s best deep threat. He never averaged less than 14.6 yards per catch and racked up 36 touchdowns. As the 1999 season approached, he dug his heels in while reportedly seeking Antonio Freeman kind of money. Galloway not only skipped all of training camp, but also the first eight games of the season. He came back to the team with his tail between his legs in early November, without a contract.

How he fared: Galloway said he was ready to help the team right away after reporting, but Mike Holmgren and the 6-2 Seahawks didn’t see it that way. The ugly holdout left a bitter taste in the organization’s mouth and the wideout never got on track, drawing the start in just four games. In fact, Galloway’s entire career spiraled downward after the holdout. Those first four years proved to be his best.

1998 stats: 4.06 catches per game, 65.4 yards per game, 10 touchdowns, 16 games played
1999 stats: 2.75 catches per game, 41.8 yards per game, 1 touchdown, 8 games played

CARL PICKENS
Year of holdout: 1999
Background: At age 29, Pickens reportedly decided that he didn’t want to play for the Bengals anymore. So he staged an extended holdout, staying at home until the Thursday before Week 1. He surprisingly got a five-year, $23 million deal just a couple days later. Starting in 2000, many Bengals contracts included a “loyalty clause,” also known as the “Carl Pickens clause.” It stated that a Bengals player criticized the organization, coaches or teammates, he could be subject to a fine.

How he fared: Pickens predictably got off to a slow start following that 41-day holdout. He didn’t catch his first touchdown until Week 5 and failed to gain any momentum. After the 1999 season, he was traded away and was out of the league after the 2000 season.

1998 stats: 5.12 catches per game, 63.9 yards per game, 5 touchdowns, 16 games played
1999 stats: 3.56 catches per game, 46.0 yards per game, 6 touchdowns, 16 games played

EMMITT SMITH
Year of holdout: 1993
Background: In 1992, Emmitt Smith was a first-team All-Pro and led the Cowboys to a Super Bowl victory while making $465,000. That wasn’t go to fly in 1993, as Smith waged a war against Jerry Jones. Once the Cowboys started 0-2 with a rookie running back, Jones caved and made Smith the highest-paid runner in the history of the NFL. The Cowboys won 12 of their next 14 games.

How he fared: In his first two games, Smith was predictably eased in as he garnered 21 total carries. Then the chains came off. When the dust settled, Smith was the league’s MVP and the Cowboys won the Super Bowl for the second straight year.

1992 stats: 128.0 total yards per game, 4.6 YPC, 19 total touchdowns, 16 games played
1993 stats: 135.7 total yards per game, 5.3 YPC, 10 total touchdowns, 14 games played

JERRY RICE
Year of holdout: 1992
Background: Rice was already well on his way to GOAT (greatest of all-time) status when he challenged the Niners’ front office for a new contract. Between 1986 and 1991, he averaged 1,357 yards and 15 touchdowns per season. He wanted to be paid like an elite wide receiver after making just $1.75 million in 1991. After a 37-day holdout, Rice finally got his deal.

How he fared: The first six weeks of the season were really slow by Rice’s standards. He was held under 73 yards in each game and had just two touchdowns. Then the explosion came and all was forgiven as the Niners ended up winning their final eight games of the season. Rice posted 654 yards and six scores during that span.

1991 stats: 5.00 catches per game, 75.3 yards per game, 14 touchdowns, 16 games played
1992 stats: 5.25 catches per game, 75.0 yards per game, 10 touchdowns, 16 games played


CONCLUSIONS
1. Out of the seven players, four had significantly worse than expected seasons in the year of their holdout. There could be multiple reasons for this:

A) Conditioning: Chris Johnson admitted that he wasn’t in tip-top shape as he finally reported to camp in 2011. Carl Pickens wasn’t ready to play football. Even Jerry Rice, a legendary workaholic, started the season off slow. It proves that there’s simply no substitute for the rigors of training camp.

B) Money talks: For some guys, money means more than the game. So once they get paid, it’s a license to mail it in -- thus leading to a dip in production.

C) Injuries: Somewhat surprisingly, only Vincent Jackson was affected by the kind of muscle/soft tissue problems one would expect after a long time out.

D) Scheme changes: Chris Johnson entered the season with a new offensive coordinator, perhaps contributing to his demise. Both Maurice Jones-Drew and Mike Wallace will be asked to learn new schemes as well if/when they report.

2. The three players that sustained their previous levels of productions were Jerry Rice, Emmitt Smith and Hines Ward. The first two are among the greatest players ever and Ward has borderline Hall of Fame credentials as well.

3. The length of the holdout matters. Jerry Rice and Hines Ward reported weeks before Week 1. All the others didn’t start practicing until right at Week 1 or into the season. Only Emmitt Smith was able to overcome that, and even he was only given 21 total carries in his first two games.

These are all factors to watch as we monitor Maurice Jones-Drew and Mike Wallace. As seen above, there’s now added risk with selecting them. Buyer beware.

 

[HacheMan]

The DeSean Jackson dilemma

Eric Karabell

I've read and heard plenty this offseason about how Philadelphia Eagles wide receiver DeSean Jackson is ecstatic about his shiny new contract and will, as a result, be focused and bounce back statistically to prior levels when fantasy owners loved him.



It's all pretty believable, if not a bit sad actually, as we'd all hope maximum effort wouldn't be a problem at the NFL level. Regardless, one of the money quotes I saw this week as the Eagles arrived at training camp was from the team's wide receivers coach, David Culley.


"Whatever things happened with [Jackson] last year was more due to him, I think, trying to not get hurt as opposed to being scared going across the middle, because I never saw that in 2 1/2 years," Culley told the Philadelphia Inquirer.


So Jackson's position coach basically admits the player was afraid to risk his health in a contract year, which makes perfect sense. These guys are only human. However, does that mean Jackson is really willing to risk his health this season? As wide receivers go, this is one with slight build and a history of concussion issues. Perhaps going back across the middle isn't such a wise game plan, so I'm a bit conflicted as to whether a change in strategy is a good thing or not.

Sure, Jackson can really help the Eagles -- and fantasy owners -- assuming health, focus and motivation, but just the thought of Jackson resuming slant routes across the middle sends a tingle up my spine, and probably does with him as well. It also partially explains why Jackson isn't close to ranking among my top 20 wide receivers despite possessing insane, breakaway downfield speed.


Jackson isn't even 6-feet tall, he might weigh 175 pounds dripping wet and he has dealt with various vicious hits to the head in the past few seasons. There's a lot to like about Jackson's ability to get deep and make big plays, and even at perhaps 75 percent physically and emotionally last season, he still ranked in the top 10 in yards per touch and made numerous big plays. He just didn't make as many as in prior seasons, and I wonder if that's the type of thing that can simply be switched on by signing a new contract.


We know the upside. In 2009, Jackson ranked second among qualified receivers to Pittsburgh Steelers stud Mike Wallace in yards per reception at 18.6. Jackson also scored 12 touchdowns, nine of them receiving. In 2010, Jackson led all receivers with 22.5 yards per catch, and his eight total touchdowns remained very good. Last season things were different. While there's nothing wrong with 16.6 yards per reception, which ranked 15th in the league (coincidentally tied with Wallace!), his touchdowns were down, his rushing attempts were down and he was used more infrequently on special teams to return punts, with a mere 17 returns in 15 games.


Why, I ask, will this automatically change to 2009 or '10 levels? I rank Jackson 27th among wide receivers. ESPN ranks him in the same spot, and in ESPN average live drafts, he's going 22nd at the position, as name value apparently has some influence. However, this is a player who finished fourth among wide receivers in standard scoring in 2009 and 11th in 2010. So from that perspective, apparently even ESPN drafters don't think he'll return to prior greatness.


That's basically my point. Perhaps I'll move up Jackson a bit closer to the top 20 in the coming weeks/months, as I do trust that helpful numbers are pending. I actually do believe Jackson and his teammates are a bit more motivated to do well after going 8-8 last season, and this is a talented bunch when Michael Vick is healthy and the linebacker corps is competent. Jackson was benched for a game last season due to attitude issues, and that shouldn't happen again. I just don't think expecting a top-20 performance over 16 weeks is realistic. Last year Jackson reached double digits in standard fantasy scoring six times, but his best game was only 17 points. He had numerous worse games, falling short of even six fantasy points seven times.


Full disclosure, I was a bit down on Jackson, as compared to others, the past two seasons as well. We all prefer our wide receivers to catch 100 passes rather than 58, the latter number being Jackson's four-year average, and that's essentially my other concern. Jackson's fantasy value is too tied to big plays, which are hard to predict. It's going to be difficult for Jackson to ever haul in 75 passes in a season considering Philly's other options (LeSean McCoy, Jeremy Maclin), so even if your league isn't point-per-reception, there's more risk. Most weeks Jackson will catch just three or four passes. Wallace, for example, caught 72 passes last season. On-field comparisons between Wallace and Jackson don't work anymore, because the former emerged as a better all-around option, not just as a deep threat. Of course, now Wallace is embroiled in a contract dispute, though it should be resolved far more peacefully than what happened with Jackson last season.


Ultimately, there's risk surrounding Jackson, more than with most potentially top 20 wide receivers. Even assuming internal happiness with the man, which is probably a small leap of faith in case he has a week in which he isn't targeted much and spouts off, there are durability concerns here. Plus the fact that other receivers such as Brandon Marshall, Steve Johnson and Dwayne Bowe likely will catch considerably more passes. Average yards per reception is a wise statistic to monitor, and it can often determine future stars, but in Jackson's case he's a bit limited. Remember all this on draft day.

 

[HacheMan]

Redskins O-line hurts RG3's stock

How teams' pass blocking will affect their quarterbacks' fantasy values

By KC Joyner | ESPN Insider

Former Oakland Raiders owner Al Davis once famously declared his philosophy on pass rushing -- the opposing team's quarterback must go down, and he must go down hard.


Fantasy football owners usually adhere to that mindset when picking a defense/special teams group on draft day, but in many cases, that philosophy should also be considered when picking a quarterback.



Knowing which teams are going to be able to protect their quarterbacks and which are going to allow them to get hit is a valuable tool. After a multilayered review of pass-blocking metrics, I found some interesting, and in some cases surprising, draft-day tidbits.
<offer>Let's start with a look at the top lines in terms of preventing hits on their quarterbacks.


<!-- begin inline 1 -->Clean QB Jerseys

<table><thead><tr><th>Rank</th><th>Team</th><th>Sacks + QB hits allowed</th><th>Attempts + sacks</th><th>Hit %</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr class="last"><td>1</td><td>New Orleans</td><td>77</td><td>686</td><td>11.2</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>2</td><td>Tennessee</td><td>76</td><td>608</td><td>12.5</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>3</td><td>San Diego</td><td>80</td><td>612</td><td>13.1</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>4</td><td>Tampa Bay</td><td>89</td><td>620</td><td>14.4</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>5</td><td>Cincinnati</td><td>81</td><td>560</td><td>14.5</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>6</td><td>Buffalo</td><td>90</td><td>601</td><td>15.0</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>7</td><td>New England</td><td>100</td><td>644</td><td>15.5</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>8</td><td>Oakland</td><td>87</td><td>549</td><td>15.8</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>9</td><td>NY Giants</td><td>98</td><td>617</td><td>15.9</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>10</td><td>Detroit</td><td>113</td><td>702</td><td>16.1</td></tr></tbody></table>

<!-- end inline 1 -->

One of the most notable items on this chart is that the New York Giants, a club with an oft-criticized offensive line last season, ranked ninth in the league in the percentage of time they allowed their quarterback to be hit. What's more amazing is that Big Blue led the league in vertical (235) and stretch vertical (106) pass attempts last season. If that is the type of protection this line is capable of in an off year, it speaks volumes for where this team could rank in 2012.


Another item of note is that the Detroit Lions gave Matthew Stafford top 10-caliber pass protection from this perspective. The Lions aimed to make this group stronger by adding offensive tackle Riley Reiff in the draft. As long as Jeff Backus' thumb injury does not cause him to miss any regular-season time -- which does not look likely -- Stafford should once again have a good shot at playing a 16-game slate.


Now let's take a look at the flip side of this equation to see which teams allowed the highest quarterback hit percentage:


<!-- begin inline 2 -->Hitting The Deck

<table><thead><tr><th>Rank</th><th>Team</th><th>Sacks + QB hits allowed</th><th>Attempts + sacks</th><th>Hit %</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr class="last"><td>23</td><td>Arizona</td><td>128</td><td>604</td><td>21.2</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>24</td><td>Denver</td><td>100</td><td>471</td><td>21.2</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>25</td><td>Minnesota</td><td>120</td><td>559</td><td>21.5</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>26</td><td>Washington</td><td>142</td><td>632</td><td>22.5</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>27</td><td>Jacksonville</td><td>116</td><td>513</td><td>22.6</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>28</td><td>Chicago</td><td>130</td><td>522</td><td>24.9</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>29</td><td>San Francisco</td><td>125</td><td>495</td><td>25.3</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>30</td><td>St. Louis</td><td>160</td><td>604</td><td>26.5</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>31</td><td>Miami</td><td>141</td><td>521</td><td>27.1</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>32</td><td>Seattle</td><td>161</td><td>559</td><td>28.8</td></tr></tbody></table>

<!-- end inline 2 -->

The Denver Broncos' low ranking in this category was due in part to Tim Tebow's penchant for holding the ball far too long, but it still has to be seen as a bit of a risk factor given Peyton Manning's health.


One of the knocks on Robert Griffin III was his durability and size -- two factors that led Scouts Inc. to give Griffin a low rating in the durability category -- and Washington's penchant for allowing quarterback hits might not bode well for his 2012 prospects.
<!-- begin inline 3 -->KC Joyner's Fantasy Draft Guide

KC Joyner's 2012 Fantasy Football Draft Guide can be ordered online here.


<!-- end inline 3 -->Maybe the biggest surprise on this chart is how low the San Francisco 49ers ranked. The 49ers were a run-first offense and did not try to throw the ball vertical often (only Cleveland had a lower vertical pass percentage), yet their quarterbacks had a higher hit rate than all but three teams.



Alex Smith has a habit of getting jittery under pressure. The combination of San Francisco throwing the ball downfield a lot more this season -- they didn't sign Randy Moss and Mario Manningham for their short-pass-catching abilities --and poor pass blocking could mean Smith will see quite a regression in his performance.


A factor that could be as important as the pass-blocking rates is the relative pass-rush strength each team is due to face this season.


One way to measure this is by tallying the number of sacks and quarterback hits each team's opponents had in 2012 and weighing that mark against other teams in the league.


The 10 teams with the most favorable schedule from this perspective are:


<!-- begin inline 4 -->Easy Road Ahead

<table><thead><tr><th>Rank</th><th>Team</th><th>Opponents' sacks</th><th>Opponents' QB hits</th><th>Opp Sks + QBH</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr class="last"><td>1</td><td>Kansas City</td><td>562</td><td>1,058</td><td>1,620</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>2</td><td>Oakland</td><td>556</td><td>1,075</td><td>1,631</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>3</td><td>Houston</td><td>563</td><td>1,075</td><td>1,638</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>4</td><td>San Diego</td><td>561</td><td>1,098</td><td>1,659</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>5</td><td>New Orleans</td><td>567</td><td>1,096</td><td>1,663</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>6</td><td>Atlanta</td><td>579</td><td>1,093</td><td>1,672</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>7</td><td>Minnesota</td><td>558</td><td>1,116</td><td>1,674</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>8</td><td>Denver</td><td>564</td><td>1,120</td><td>1,684</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>9</td><td>Carolina</td><td>566</td><td>1,131</td><td>1,697</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>10</td><td>Indianapolis</td><td>565</td><td>1,137</td><td>1,702</td></tr></tbody></table>

<!-- end inline 4 -->

The Houston Texans' ranking should offer some peace of mind for any fantasy owner considering drafting Matt Schaub as a low-cost/high-upside pick.


This chart also bodes well for those considering Philip Rivers, Drew Brees, Matt Ryan, Peyton Manning, Cam Newton and Andrew Luck.


Now let's look at the other side of this coin and see which teams are due to face the toughest pass-rush schedules in the upcoming season:


<!-- begin inline 5 -->Rough Road Ahead

<table><thead><tr><th>Rank</th><th>Team</th><th>Opponents' sacks</th><th>Opponents' QB hits</th><th>Opp Sks + QBH</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr class="last"><td>23</td><td>San Francisco</td><td>607</td><td>1,202</td><td>1,809</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>24</td><td>Dallas</td><td>624</td><td>1,194</td><td>1,818</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>25</td><td>Seattle</td><td>617</td><td>1,207</td><td>1,824</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>26</td><td>Arizona</td><td>609</td><td>1,216</td><td>1,825</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>27</td><td>NY Giants</td><td>617</td><td>1,217</td><td>1,834</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>28</td><td>Pittsburgh</td><td>635</td><td>1,201</td><td>1,836</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>29</td><td>Philadelphia</td><td>625</td><td>1,214</td><td>1,839</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>30</td><td>Cleveland</td><td>636</td><td>1,213</td><td>1,849</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>31</td><td>Baltimore</td><td>630</td><td>1,255</td><td>1,885</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>32</td><td>Washington</td><td>649</td><td>1,244</td><td>1,893</td></tr></tbody></table>

<!-- end inline 5 -->

This just adds even more fuel the argument that San Francisco is playing against a stacked deck this season and is due for a drop-off, which is a point Football Outsiders made in their 2012 season projections.


Even President Barack Obama recently looked out for Michael Vick's health by suggesting to Nnamdi Asomugha that he tell Vick to slide more often, but this schedule strength indicates Vick could be in just as much trouble in the pocket. Andy Reid and offensive line coach Howard Mudd will have their work cut out for them to keep Vick upright all season, especially since the Eagles lost left tackle Jason Peters to injury.


RG3's fantasy prospects take another hit when schedule strength is combined with the Redskins' aforementioned issues in allowing their quarterback to be hit last season. Mike Shanahan has shown no hesitance in opening up the vertical game in his Washington tenure -- the Redskins tied for third in vertical pass attempts in 2011 -- but he might do well to scale things back a bit to keep his franchise quarterback healthy for 16 games.
</offer>

 

[HacheMan]

Frank Gore's fantasy value in decline

To what degree depends on effectiveness of 49ers' other backfield weapons

By Jim McCormick | Special to ESPN.com

How much will Frank Gore's production sink because of his backfield competition with the 49ers?

As fantasy football fans know well, the workhorse tailback has become an increasingly rare commodity as the league trends toward more specialized backfield roles and pass-happy offenses. For the past six seasons in San Francisco, however, the 49ers' ground game has been fueled primarily by Frank Gore. Yet with Gore coming off a season that saw his workload and production dip precipitously in the second half and with a suddenly crowded backfield in San Francisco, are his days as a "bell cow" back coming to an end?


Looking at the totals from last season, Gore enjoyed a strong season as the 49ers emerged as a conference power. The Miami product posted 1,211 yards on the ground, second only to his inspired 2006 breakout season, on his way to eclipsing Hall of Famer Joe "The Jet" Perry's franchise rushing record. Gore played an entire regular season for just the second time in his career, and during a stretch from Weeks 4 to 9, posted a franchise-record five straight 100-yard outings that saw him rack up more than half of his total rushing yards for the season. Gore also carried the ball the most times since his 2006 effort and played inspired ball during the team's first playoff run since 2002. As a fantasy asset, however, Gore produced 10.2 points per game using ESPN standard scoring -- the lowest average of his career as the starter -- and finished with the 15th-most points at the position.


On the surface, Gore answered growing questions over his durability, especially after playing in just 11 games in 2010. The counter to this notion is that while Gore started all 16 last season, he didn't finish games in Week 3 against the Bengals due to an ankle ailment, Week 10 versus the Giants with a knee issue and in the season finale versus the Rams. The Giants game marked the veteran's first game with zero yards in his career. It was reported that Gore sprained his right ankle versus Dallas in Week 2 and injured his left ankle versus Washington in Week 9. After enduring 159 carries in the first eight games -- a pace that would have set a new career-high -- it was clear that the bruising bowling ball of a back was wearing down.

Attrition is a given for an NFL player over the course of the grueling season, and this is especially true for a feature back. In an attempt to preserve a playmaker clearly showing signs of wear, the team began to cap Gore's touches in the second half of the season. Gore was given 21.5 total touches per game in the first eight games of the season -- a nearly identical clip to the 21.4 touches he averaged from 2006-10 -- and just 15.9 per game in the final eight. During the first half of 2011, Gore posted an elite 4.9 yards per carry, but averaged just 3.5 per carry in the second half.


Maybe the most disconcerting numbers from last season are the 17 receptions and 114 receiving yards (career-low 6.7 yards per reception) Gore tallied. After averaging 51 catches and 430 receiving yards over his previous five seasons as the starter, this marked the lowest reception total since his rookie campaign and the lowest receiving yardage total of his career. Once considered a PPR maven, it's unclear what Gore's role in the passing game might be in 2012, especially with soft-handed rookie LaMichael James and several new wideouts joining the roster.


Actions, or rather acquisitions, speak louder than anything else in the business of professional football. The additions of veteran Brandon Jacobs and second-round selection James, who left Oregon as the active FBS rushing leader, are signs of a team placing more value on depth at the position with an eye on keeping their top back fresh when the carries matter most. Second-year tailback Kendall Hunter, who impressed in his rookie season as Gore's primary backup, remains the mix, as well. The questions looming over Gore's fantasy prospects aren't whether he's the most capable, versatile and proven back on the roster, because he is. His place atop the depth chart remains unquestioned. The concern for his fantasy potential in 2012 is that the 49ers will employ a deliberate share of the work with his bevy of backfield mates in order to keep their best back fresher for both the regular season and what they hope will be another deep playoff run.


In early June, the team's running backs coach Tom Rathman spoke to the San Francisco Chronicle about Gore and the busy backfield: "We need to keep him healthy. We need to keep him fresh so he's an impact player for us." Rathman went on to explain that with a share of the work on the way, "I don't know if everyone's going to be happy with the time that they get."

Assuming that he makes the team, it's difficult to imagine Jacobs having a significant role outside of spot duties in short-yardage scenarios. Rathman told the San Francisco Chronicle as much: "We need him to pack it up inside and run over guys and be physical as a ball carrier. If we want to run outside, we'll put somebody else in."


If Jacobs were to secure a steady gig as the goal-line back, it would further cut into Gore's fantasy value. For long third down situations and as a steady reprieve for Gore, it seems likely that Hunter and James factor into a share of an expanded change-of-pace backup role.


Frank Gore's Fantasy Profile, Since 2006

<table><thead><tr><th> Year </th><th> Touches per game </th><th> Fantasy PPG </th><th> Pts per touch </th><th> Preseason RB rank </th><th> Final RB rank </th></tr><tbody><tr class="last"><td> 2006 </td><td> 23.3 </td><td> 16.2 </td><td> 0.70 </td><td> 30th </td><td> 4th </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 2007 </td><td> 20.8 </td><td> 11.7 </td><td> 0.56 </td><td> 4th </td><td> 9th </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 2008 </td><td> 20.2 </td><td> 12.8 </td><td> 0.63 </td><td> 6th </td><td> 14th </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 2009 </td><td> 20.1 </td><td> 15.3 </td><td> 0.76 </td><td> 8th </td><td> 6th </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 2010 </td><td> 22.6 </td><td> 13.4 </td><td> 0.59 </td><td> 6th </td><td> 20th </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 2011 </td><td> 18.7 </td><td> 10.2 </td><td> 0.55 </td><td> 10th </td><td> 15th </td></tr></tbody></table>



The key to Gore remaining a valuable real and fantasy football contributor is staying on the field throughout the season while retaining the burst and big-play ability that has defined his best moments. With the coaching staff's deliberate agenda to pace the workload of their best back, it's likely that Gore sees a career-low in total touches as the starter. This doesn't mean that Gore can't be a valid second running back in fantasy, but it does make it quite unlikely that he ever nears the production peaks he set in 2006 and 2009. The biggest dip for Gore's value is in PPR formats, where a significant amount of point production vanished in 2011. Even in standard leagues, there were more than 30 points from receiving yards left on the table last season given the dramatic dip from his previously lofty season averages.

The 49ers are adapting to this era of specialized roles in the backfield, and while Gore's total touches will take a hit, it means he'll take less hits. There is certainly potential for Gore to be fresher down the stretch of the regular season when fantasy crowns are won. He's still the main guy in this running game and should end up being closer to a feature back in terms of total touches than a situational role.
Gore is projected as the 17th running back in our draft kit and is being selected in ESPN live drafts as a No. 2 fantasy back in terms of auction value and ADP. After being priced as a No. 1 fantasy back the past five years, with an average ADP of 9.8, he's currently going 35th on average overall in ESPN leagues. There would be considerable risk investing in Gore if the draft price and statistical expectations remained similar to the past several seasons, but both the rankings and his average draft position have been reasonably adjusted for the expected lightened load and inherent injury risk.

 

[HacheMan]

Holdout History
Holdouts and the NFL go together like tea and crumpets.

You really can't blame the players for that. If I’m Maurice Jones-Drew and I see DeAngelo Williams get a five-year, $43 million contract in 2011, I’m not going to be happy. If I see Nuggets C JaVale McGee sign a four-year, $44 million deal, I’m going to be downright livid.

Football players know that the window of opportunity to cash in on their unique talents is tiny. Oftentimes, their only method of leverage is a holdout. This is not a new phenomenon by any stretch of the imagination. As we go back through the history of the league, we find some of the greatest players ever staging holdouts.

For our purposes, the key is to figure out how those holdouts affect seasons once these players report. Should Jones-Drew and Mike Wallace be downgraded on draft boards? Here’s a look at how seven fantasy-relevant players fared following their holdouts. I’ll draw some conclusions at the end.

CHRIS JOHNSON
Year of holdout: 2011
Background: Following the lockout, Johnson dug in and tried to get his rookie deal ripped up. The Titans didn’t end up caving until September 1, just 10 days before Week 1. He arrived in Nashville needing to learn new offensive coordinator Chris Palmer’s offense and simultaneously get in shape. CJ2K was expected to make good on the six-year, $55.26 million contract he signed.

How he fared: Johnson’s season was nothing short of an unmitigated disaster. Although most fantasy owners stuck with him as a top-three pick, he topped 100 yards just four times and was held to 34 rushing yards or less six times. He never appeared to be in tip-top shape and his effort was fairly questioned.

2010 stats: 100.56 total yards per game, 4.31 YPC, 12 total touchdowns, 16 games played
2011 stats: 91.56 total yards per game, 3.99 YPC, 4 total touchdowns, 16 games played

Editor's Note: To see exact projections for Chris Johnson's 2012 season, full running back rankings, exclusive columns and much more, check out the Draft Guide!

VINCENT JACKSON
Year of holdout: 2010
Background: Much like Mike Wallace, Jackson was a restricted free agent heading into the 2010 season. And just like the Steelers, the Chargers chose to play hardball. They tendered him for one year at $3.268 million and V-Jax was seeking a five-year deal worth $50 million. Jackson chose to sit out the first 10 games of the season, showing up for the final six games. That allowed him to accrue the season toward unrestricted free agency.

How he fared: The Chargers coaching staff didn’t hold any grudges. They were fully prepared to use him in a major role in his first game after reporting, Week 12. However, Jackson strained a calf three plays into that Week 12 game and ended up missing Week 13 completely. He appeared somewhat limited in Week 14. Then in Week 15, he went off for 112 yards and three touchdowns.

2009 stats: 4.53 catches per game, 77.8 yards per game, 9 touchdowns, 15 games played
2010 stats: 2.80 catches per game, 49.6 yards per game, 3 touchdowns, 5 games played

HINES WARD
Year of holdout: 2005
Background: Ward racked up four straight 1000-yard seasons between 2001-2004, establishing himself as one of the game’s best all-around wideouts. He actually considered holding out ahead of the 2004 season, but didn’t go through with it until 2005 -- when he was set to earn $1.67 million in the final year of his deal.

The details of the Steelers’ stance with Ward were unsurprisingly similar to the one they have taken with Mike Wallace. While Ward was holding out, the organization refused to even negotiate -- even though team leaders such as Jerome Bettis publicly pleaded for Ward to get a deal. Ward finally reported to camp on August 16, three weeks before Week 1. On September 5, he got a four-year, $25.83 million deal.

How he fared: Ward was already well-versed in the Steelers’ offense and stepped right in as the No. 1 receiver. He didn’t reach 1,000 yards, but did score 11 regular-season touchdowns and was named MVP of Super Bowl XL. Note that Wallace hasn’t been on the field to learn a new scheme under new coordinator Todd Haley.

2004 stats: 5.00 catches per game, 62.7 yards per game, 4 touchdowns, 16 games played
2005 stats: 4.60 catches per game, 65.0 yards per game, 11 touchdowns, 15 games played

JOEY GALLOWAY
Year of holdout: 1999
Background: During the first four years of his career, Galloway was unquestionably the league’s best deep threat. He never averaged less than 14.6 yards per catch and racked up 36 touchdowns. As the 1999 season approached, he dug his heels in while reportedly seeking Antonio Freeman kind of money. Galloway not only skipped all of training camp, but also the first eight games of the season. He came back to the team with his tail between his legs in early November, without a contract.

How he fared: Galloway said he was ready to help the team right away after reporting, but Mike Holmgren and the 6-2 Seahawks didn’t see it that way. The ugly holdout left a bitter taste in the organization’s mouth and the wideout never got on track, drawing the start in just four games. In fact, Galloway’s entire career spiraled downward after the holdout. Those first four years proved to be his best.

1998 stats: 4.06 catches per game, 65.4 yards per game, 10 touchdowns, 16 games played
1999 stats: 2.75 catches per game, 41.8 yards per game, 1 touchdown, 8 games played

CARL PICKENS
Year of holdout: 1999
Background: At age 29, Pickens reportedly decided that he didn’t want to play for the Bengals anymore. So he staged an extended holdout, staying at home until the Thursday before Week 1. He surprisingly got a five-year, $23 million deal just a couple days later. Starting in 2000, many Bengals contracts included a “loyalty clause,” also known as the “Carl Pickens clause.” It stated that a Bengals player criticized the organization, coaches or teammates, he could be subject to a fine.

How he fared: Pickens predictably got off to a slow start following that 41-day holdout. He didn’t catch his first touchdown until Week 5 and failed to gain any momentum. After the 1999 season, he was traded away and was out of the league after the 2000 season.

1998 stats: 5.12 catches per game, 63.9 yards per game, 5 touchdowns, 16 games played
1999 stats: 3.56 catches per game, 46.0 yards per game, 6 touchdowns, 16 games played

EMMITT SMITH
Year of holdout: 1993
Background: In 1992, Emmitt Smith was a first-team All-Pro and led the Cowboys to a Super Bowl victory while making $465,000. That wasn’t go to fly in 1993, as Smith waged a war against Jerry Jones. Once the Cowboys started 0-2 with a rookie running back, Jones caved and made Smith the highest-paid runner in the history of the NFL. The Cowboys won 12 of their next 14 games.

How he fared: In his first two games, Smith was predictably eased in as he garnered 21 total carries. Then the chains came off. When the dust settled, Smith was the league’s MVP and the Cowboys won the Super Bowl for the second straight year.

1992 stats: 128.0 total yards per game, 4.6 YPC, 19 total touchdowns, 16 games played
1993 stats: 135.7 total yards per game, 5.3 YPC, 10 total touchdowns, 14 games played

JERRY RICE
Year of holdout: 1992
Background: Rice was already well on his way to GOAT (greatest of all-time) status when he challenged the Niners’ front office for a new contract. Between 1986 and 1991, he averaged 1,357 yards and 15 touchdowns per season. He wanted to be paid like an elite wide receiver after making just $1.75 million in 1991. After a 37-day holdout, Rice finally got his deal.

How he fared: The first six weeks of the season were really slow by Rice’s standards. He was held under 73 yards in each game and had just two touchdowns. Then the explosion came and all was forgiven as the Niners ended up winning their final eight games of the season. Rice posted 654 yards and six scores during that span.

1991 stats: 5.00 catches per game, 75.3 yards per game, 14 touchdowns, 16 games played
1992 stats: 5.25 catches per game, 75.0 yards per game, 10 touchdowns, 16 games played


CONCLUSIONS
1. Out of the seven players, four had significantly worse than expected seasons in the year of their holdout. There could be multiple reasons for this:

A) Conditioning: Chris Johnson admitted that he wasn’t in tip-top shape as he finally reported to camp in 2011. Carl Pickens wasn’t ready to play football. Even Jerry Rice, a legendary workaholic, started the season off slow. It proves that there’s simply no substitute for the rigors of training camp.

B) Money talks: For some guys, money means more than the game. So once they get paid, it’s a license to mail it in -- thus leading to a dip in production.

C) Injuries: Somewhat surprisingly, only Vincent Jackson was affected by the kind of muscle/soft tissue problems one would expect after a long time out.

D) Scheme changes: Chris Johnson entered the season with a new offensive coordinator, perhaps contributing to his demise. Both Maurice Jones-Drew and Mike Wallace will be asked to learn new schemes as well if/when they report.

2. The three players that sustained their previous levels of productions were Jerry Rice, Emmitt Smith and Hines Ward. The first two are among the greatest players ever and Ward has borderline Hall of Fame credentials as well.

3. The length of the holdout matters. Jerry Rice and Hines Ward reported weeks before Week 1. All the others didn’t start practicing until right at Week 1 or into the season. Only Emmitt Smith was able to overcome that, and even he was only given 21 total carries in his first two games.

These are all factors to watch as we monitor Maurice Jones-Drew and Mike Wallace. As seen above, there’s now added risk with selecting them. Buyer beware.

 

[HacheMan]

Dynasty Rookie Ranks: Update I released Rotoworld's initial Dynasty rookie rankings in early May, a week after the NFL draft. With the second wave of rookie drafts kicking off in early August, one of the most popular requests in my Twitter feed is an updated list to reflect stronger opinions from offseason and training camp practice reports.

Why not? That sounds like an excellent idea, and I'm happy to oblige. The following lists are based on standard-scoring (non-PPR) leagues with 25-man rosters. The lists by position include draft round and pick selection.

Top 90 Overall

Tier One

1. Robert Griffin III, QB, Redskins
2. Andrew Luck, QB, Colts
3. Trent Richardson, RB, Browns

Tier Two

4. Doug Martin, RB, Buccaneers
5. Isaiah Pead, RB, Rams
6. Kendall Wright, WR, Titans
7. Justin Blackmon, WR, Jaguars
8. David Wilson, RB, Giants

Big Changes: Bumped Pead from No. 9 to No. 5 after going back and watching clips from his senior season. It's easy to see why he has invoked comparisons to Jamaal Charles, Chris Johnson and LeSean McCoy. I can't blame anyone for preferring first-rounder Wilson, who is an explosive talent in his own right, but Pead jumps off the screen to me.

Moved Wright ahead of Blackmon. I had this duo as the top two receivers immediately following the draft, and I still believe that to be the case. Blackmon may have the talent edge, but he's a long-term suspension risk with a DUI apiece in college and the pros. More problematic is his situation, with GM Gene Smith married to Blaine Gabbert as the franchise quarterback. I'm leaning toward Wright in an offense filled with explosive young talent and a far more promising young quarterback.

Tier Three

9. Brian Quick, WR, Rams
10. Michael Floyd, WR, Cardinals
11. Lamar Miller, RB, Dolphins
12. Ronnie Hillman, RB, Broncos
13. Coby Fleener, TE, Colts
14. Stephen Hill, WR, Jets
15. Josh Gordon, WR, Browns
16. Alshon Jeffery, WR, Bears
17. Ryan Tannehill, QB, Dolphins
18. LaMichael James, RB, 49ers

Big Changes: Bumped Brian Quick, Lamar Miller and Ronnie Hillman. Quick gets the nod over Floyd because I don't have the patience to wait for the latter to explode onto the fantasy scene while stuck behind target-hog Larry Fitzgerald for the next half-decade. Quick, on the other hand, has an easy path to the No. 1 receiver role under Sam Bradford. I don't see much more than a change-of-pace back when I watch Hillman, but that species is finally beginning to carve out a reliable weekly fantasy niche in today's pass-heavy NFL. I think Miller's game will translate better at the next level, though.

Added Josh Gordon. I never saw Gordon play in college. I've struggled with this ranking because I do believe Jeffery is a fine prospect who was unfairly shredded in the pre-draft cattle call, but the positive reports on Gordon's size, speed, athelticism and vast potential are too much to ignore.

Tier Four

19. Rueben Randle, WR, Giants
20. Ryan Broyles, WR, Lions
21. Russell Wilson, QB, Seahawks
22. Brandon Weeden, QB, Browns
23. Robert Turbin, RB, Seahawks
24. A.J. Jenkins, WR, 49ers
25. Nick Toon, WR, Saints
26. Juron Criner, WR, Raiders
27. Greg Childs, WR, Vikings
28. Mohamed Sanu, WR, Bengals
29. Vick Ballard, RB, Colts
30. Chris Givens, WR, Rams

Big Changes: Moved Wilson ahead of Weeden. I've come around to Wilson after originally believing he would be limited to a Seneca Wallace career path in the NFL. He's much better than that and will likely take over the offense at some point in 2012.

Bumped Broyles, who has recovered well from ACL surgery and appears to be a future PPR-league monster. Also bumped offseason standouts Toon and Criner while dropping Jenkins and Givens, who appear to be buried on their respective depth charts. Added Ballard now that he's expected to be in the mix for significant carries as a rookie.

Tier Five

31. Dwayne Allen, TE, Colts
32. Ladarius Green, TE, Chargers
33. Evan Rodriguez, TE, Bears
34. T.J. Graham, WR, Bills
35. Bernard Pierce, RB, Ravens
36. Bryce Brown, RB, Eagles
37. Marvin Jones, WR, Bengals
38. Keshawn Martin, WR, Texans
39. Travis Benjamin, WR, Brown
40. Chris Rainey, WR/RB, Steelers
41. Michael Smith, RB, Buccaneers
42. Brandon Bolden, RB, Patriots
43. LaVon Brazill, WR, Colts
44. DeVier Posey, WR, Texans
45. T.Y. Hilton, WR, Colts
46. Brock Osweiler, QB, Broncos

Big Changes: Added Rodriguez, who has some Aaron Hernandez qualities as a "move" tight end. Added Brown and Bolden after their impressive showings in OTAs and early training camp. Dropped Pierce now that Ray Rice is locked up long-term. Bumped Graham, Benjamin and Martin now that they appear poised to contribute as rookies. I still like Michael Smith as a late-draft flier.

Tier Six

47. Michael Egnew, TE, Dolphins
48. Nick Foles, QB, Eagles
49. Michael Hayes, RB, Chargers
50. Chris Polk, RB, Eagles
51. Taylor Thompson, TE, Titans
52. Adrien Robinson, TE, Giants
53. Tommy Streeter, WR, Ravens
54. Marvin McNutt, WR, Eagles
55. Danny Coale, WR, Cowboys
56. Ryan Lindley, QB, Cardinals
57. Kirk Cousins, QB, Redskins
58. Orson Charles, TE, Bengals
59. Cyrus Gray, RB, Chiefs
60. Devon Wylie, WR, Chiefs
61. Joe Adams, WR, Panthers
62. Rod Streater, WR, Raiders
63. Jarius Wright, WR, Vikings
64. Damaris Johnson, WR, Eagles
65. Cole Beasley, WR, Cowboys
66. B.J. Coleman, QB, Packers
67. Deonte Thompson, WR, Ravens
68. B.J. Cunningham, WR, Dolphins
69. Jonathan Grimes, RB, Texans
70. Rishard Matthews, WR, Dolphins
71. Marc Tyler, RB, Packers
72. Terrance Ganaway, RB, Jets
73. Alfred Morris, RB, Redskins
74. Dan Herron, RB, Bengals
75. Daryl Richardson, RB, Rams
76. Dominique Davis, QB, Falcons
77. Kellen Moore, QB, Lions
78. Jordan White, WR, Jets
79. Ed Wesley, RB, Cowboys
80. Nathan Palmer, WR, 49ers
81. Junior Hemingway, WR, Chiefs
82. Edwin Baker, RB, Chargers
83. Josh Cooper, WR, Browns
84. Chandler Harnish, QB, Colts
85. Case Keenum, QB, Texans
86. Davin Meggett, RB, Texans
87. Alex Tanney, QB, Chiefs
88. Randy Bullock, K, Texans
89. Blair Walsh, K, Vikings
90. Greg Zuerlein, K, Rams

<!--RW-->QUARTERBACKS

1. Robert Griffin III, 1.02, Redskins
2. Andrew Luck, 1.01, Colts
3. Ryan Tannehill, 1.08, Dolphins
4. Russell Wilson, 3.12, Seahawks
5. Brandon Weeden, 1.22, Browns
6. Brock Osweiler, 2.25, Broncos
7. Nick Foles, 3.25, Eagles
8. Ryan Lindley, 6.15, Cardinals
9. Kirk Cousins, 4.07, Redskins
10. B.J. Coleman, 7.36, Packers
11. Chandler Harnish, 7.46, Colts
12. Dominique Davis, UDFA, Falcons
13. Kellen Moore, UDFA, Lions
14. Case Keenum, UDFA, Texans
15. Alex Tanney, UDFA, Chiefs

RUNNING BACKS

1. Trent Richardson, 1.03, Browns
2. Doug Martin, 1.31, Buccaneers
3. Isaiah Pead, 2.18, Rams
4. David Wilson, 1.32, Giants
5. Lamar Miller, 4.02, Dolphins
6. Ronnie Hillman, 3.04, Broncos
7. LaMichael James, 2.29, 49ers
8. Robert Turbin, 4.11, Seahawks
9. Vick Ballard, 5.35, Colts
10. Bernard Pierce, 3.21, Ravens
11. Bryce Brown, UDFA, Eagles
12. Michael Smith, 7.05, Buccaneers
13. Brandon Bolden, UDFA, Patriots
14. Michael Hayes, UDFA, Chargers
15. Chris Polk, UDFA, Eagles
16. Cyrus Gray, 6.12, Chiefs
17. Jonathan Grimes, UDFA, Texans
18. Marc Tyler, UDFA, Packers
19. Terrance Ganaway, 6.32, Jets
20. Alfred Morris, 6.03, Redskins
21. Dan Herron, 6.21, Bengals
22. Daryl Richardson, 7.45, Rams
23. Ed Wesley, UDFA, Cowboys
24. Edwin Baker, 7.43, Chargers
25. Davin Meggett, UDFA, Texans

WIDE RECEIVERS

1. Kendall Wright, 1.20, Titans
2. Justin Blackmon, 1.05, Jaguars
3. Brian Quick, 2.01, Rams
4. Michael Floyd, 1.13, Cardinals
5. Stephen Hill, 2.11, Jets
6. Josh Gordon, 2.02*, Browns
7. Alshon Jeffery, 2.13, Bears
8. Rueben Randle, 2.31, Giants
9. Ryan Broyles, 2.22, Lions
10. A.J. Jenkins, 1.30, 49ers
11. Nick Toon, 4.27, Saints
12. Juron Criner, 5.33, Raiders
13. Greg Childs, 4.39, Vikings
14. Mohamed Sanu, 3.20, Bengals
15. Chris Givens, 4.01, Rams
16. T.J. Graham, 3.06, Bills
17. Travis Benjamin, 4.05, Browns
18. Marvin Jones, 5.31, Bengals
19. Chris Rainey, 5.24, Steelers
20. Keshawn Martin, 4.26, Texans
21. LaVon Brazill, 6.36, Colts
22. DeVier Posey, 3.05, Texans
23. T.Y. Hilton, 3.29, Colts
24. Marvin McNutt, 6.24, Eagles
25. Danny Coale, 5.17, Cowboys
26. Tommy Streeter, 6.28, Ravens
27. Rod Streater, UDFA, Raiders
28. Devon Wylie, 4.12, Chiefs
29. Joe Adams, 4.09, Panthers
30. Jarius Wright, 4.23, Vikings
31. Damaris Johnson, UDFA, Eagles
32. Cole Beasley, UDFA, Cowboys
33. Deonte Thompson, UDFA, Ravens
34. B.J. Cunningham, 6.13, Dolphins
35. Rishard Matthews, 7.20, Dolphins
36. Nathan Palmer, UDFA, 49ers
37. Jordan White, 7.37, Jets
38. Junior Hemingway, 7.31, Chiefs
39. Josh Cooper, UDFA, Browns

TIGHT ENDS

1. Coby Fleener, 2.02, Colts
2. Dwayne Allen, 3.01, Colts
3. Ladarius Green, 4.15, Chargers
4. Evan Rodriguez, 4.16, Bears
5. Michael Egnew, 3.15, Dolphins
6. Orson Charles, 4.21, Bengals
7. Taylor Thompson, 5.10, Titans
8. Adrien Robinson, 4.32, Giants

KICKERS

1. Randy Bullock, 5.26, Texans
2. Blair Walsh, 6.05, Vikings
3. Greg Zuerlein, 6.01, Rams
4. Justin Tucker, UDFA, Ravens

 

[HacheMan]

Hall of Fame Game Preview
The NFL's sixth months of "offseason" -- and we use that term lightly -- officially concludes Sunday night when the New Orleans Saints and Arizona Cardinals square off for the annual Hall of Fame Game. Last year's Hall of Fame Game was canceled due to the league's labor dispute. It's back this year.

In the 2010 game, the Cowboys and Bengals played their starters for one possession. A similar approach can be expected from this year's title-contending Saints. The Cardinals figure to pull entrenched starters like Larry Fitzgerald after a series or two, but they are holding a number of camp battles and may let some fairly recognizable skill-position players go a little bit longer.

Tonight's Hall of Fame Game is scheduled to kick off at 8PM ET. Here are a few things to watch for and keep in mind:

1. We should get an extensive look at Michael Floyd tonight.

Reports out of Arizona have suggested Floyd might open the season as a fourth receiver after a slow spring and start to training camp. The organization remains high on 2010 third-round pick Andre Roberts, and Early Doucet is locked in at slot receiver. Some Cardinals beat writers have noted that Floyd might be better off shedding a few pounds to improve his separation skills.

The 13th overall pick in April, Floyd was rated as the No. 7 player in the entire draft on Cardinals G.M. Rod Graves' Big Board. Floyd's skill set on college game tape reminded of Brandon Marshall. He is a big, physical receiver who go gets the ball in traffic. If his weight is under control and he is on his game, Floyd should have no trouble overtaking Roberts. But for Floyd to do that, he must outplay the incumbent in preseason games.

2. The Saints are trying to replace Robert Meachem.

The Hall of Fame Game broadcast crew will likely discuss relentlessly the Saints' tumultuous offseason and speculate on the impact of Sean Payton's absence. Those stories are old to us by now. New Orleans has a few camp battles worth monitoring, and they begin at wide receiver.

While Marques Colston and Lance Moore are locked into prominent roles, Devery Henderson has struggled early in training camp and Adrian Arrington has shined. Rookie Nick Toon won't play tonight due to a setback with his troublesome foot. Arrington, Henderson, and second-year speedster Joseph Morgan are vying for snaps. An annual practice and preseason star, Arrington has his best chance at a major role in five seasons. He's a pass catcher on whom to keep tabs.

3. Kevin Kolb takes the first crack at Arizona's starting quarterback job.

Coach Ken Whisenhunt has openly admitted the Cardinals are pulling for Kolb to beat out John Skelton in light of the organization's large 2011 investment. Arizona coughed up a second-round pick, cornerback Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, and a six-year, $65 million contract in order to land Kolb following last year's lockout. Kolb was outplayed by Skelton during the season. After a failed run at Peyton Manning, the Cardinals paid Kolb a $7 million offseason roster bonus.

The Cardinals obviously don't have full confidence in Kolb considering their Manning pursuit and camp battle with Skelton, so Kolb may end up seeing a more significant number of snaps than a normal first-team quarterback would get in a game like this. We'll just have to see. But the Kolb-Skelton competition takes on a new look tonight. Each will have some game tape under his belt.

Although sixth-round pick Ryan Lindley is not involved in the quarterback battle, he is a heady, toolsy prospect worth monitoring. Lindley possesses a power arm and scored an impressive 35 on his pre-draft Wonderlic. A theoretically strong fit for Whisenhunt's vertical offense, Lindley could score points with the coaching staff by delivering a composed effort off the bench Sunday night.

4. Keep an eye on the Saints' backfield; specifically Chris Ivory.

While he's gone full speed at training camp practices recently, it's hard to imagine 2011 first-round pick Mark Ingram playing much or at all in the first of five Saints preseason games. Ingram is coming off turf-toe surgery and his second knee procedure in the past three offseasons.

The most underrated running back on either side in this game is Chris Ivory. An explosive, violent between-the-tackles power runner, Ivory has averaged 5.05 yards per career carry with six touchdowns among 216 rushing attempts. Ivory is a fourth-stringer in New Orleans, and it's fair to wonder if he might be on the trade block. Teams like Detroit, Arizona, and the Jets could use a backfield upgrade like him. Don't be surprised if Ivory handles 10-14 carries in a showcase attempt.

5. Don't expect running game fireworks from the Cardinals.

Beanie Wells has been alarmingly slow to recover from January 24 right knee surgery. He opened camp on active/PUP and has yet to practice. Wells will not play in the Hall of Fame Game.

Neither will Ryan Williams, the 38th pick in last year's draft who missed his entire rookie season with tears to his right patellar tendon and meniscus. Although Williams has generated positive early-camp reviews, we'd like to see him make explosive bursts and cuts on the knee before recommending him as a fantasy pick in advance of the way-late rounds.

Scatback La'Rod Stephens-Howling, pedestrian third-year runner Alfonso Smith, and 28-year-old camp body Thomas Clayton will handle the load for Arizona in this game.

6. Keep everything in perspective, and try to enjoy the game.

Full disclosure: this one's going to get boring by about the second quarter. Gino Crump and Andy Tanner may end up as the stars of the show, and neither of them is going to make a roster. But Sunday night's preseason opener is confirmation that football is back. Thursdays, Saturdays, and Sundays going forward will be action packed, filled with jarring hits and touchdown bombs.

It's getting to be the absolute best time of year.

 

[HacheMan]

Can Charles, Hillis coexist in fantasy?

By Tristan H. Cockcroft | ESPN.com

How will Jamaal Charles and Peyton Hillis split touches in the Kansas City Chiefs' backfield?



Let's turn the clock back two years.

The Kansas City Chiefs had just signed a 31-year-old running back coming off back-to-back 1,000-yard rushing seasons, each with double-digit touchdowns, Thomas Jones. They also had an up-and-coming 22-year-old running back, who after emerging as a starter in mid-2009 averaged 140.8 yards from scrimmage with nine total touchdowns in his final eight games, Jamaal Charles.


They were often referred to as "Thunder and Lightning."


Between them, Jones, Charles and the remainder of the Chiefs' backfield led the NFL in rushing yards (2,627) and attempts (556), and had the fourth-most yards per carry (4.7). And yet, despite that duo's success, that nickname might have been better utilized to describe this year's Chiefs backfield.


Peyton Hillis is a gargantuan running back, at 6-foot-2 and 250 pounds, making him four inches taller and 38 pounds heavier than Jones. He fits the short-yardage prototype to a T, 12 of his 23 career touchdowns coming from within the opponent's 5-yard line and 23 percent of his career rushing attempts resulting in a first down. He's as obvious a fit for the "Thunder" nickname as there is in the game.


Charles, meanwhile, has proven himself through four NFL seasons as one of the quickest running backs in the league. His career 6.07 yards per carry is the most of any running back in history with at least as many attempts (499); only two other players have an average greater than 5.25. Seven of his 19 career touchdowns are from 36 yards or greater and he had eight carries of 40 or more yards in 2009-10 combined, second only to Chris Johnson (11). The man they called "Lightning" in 2010 remains in KC two years later.


That is not to say that neither player is without warts.


Hillis endured one of the most disappointing of 2011 seasons, undoubtedly doomed by the dreaded "Madden Curse." His scrimmage yards per game dropped by more than 30 (31.68, to be exact), his scrimmage yards per touch slipped by more than one (1.08), and he scored just three total touchdowns in 10 games, after 13 in 16 contests during his breakout 2010. Hillis never seemed to recover from a hamstring injury he suffered during Week 6; he missed five games after that point and cracked the 100-yards-from-scrimmage barrier only twice in the seven games he did play. Oh, and he missed Week 3 with strep throat.


"Madden Curse" jokes aside, the serious takes on Hillis' struggles centered upon two things: First, his having totaled 331 touches, an increase of 314 upon the year before, in 2010. Considering the wear and tear on a bruiser's body, some degree of natural regression was inevitable. Second, his ongoing frustration with the lack of a long-term contract extension with the Cleveland Browns, which many who covered the team described a "non-holdout holdout."


Charles endured a frustrating 2011 as well, though his was entirely injury-related: He tore the anterior cruciate ligament in his left knee in Week 2, requiring season-ending surgery. ACL reconstructions are significant for a running back; few in the history of the NFL have had them, and fewer have made successful recoveries. Can Charles recapture the speed that made him a star?


In order to get a sense of Charles' prognosis from a historical perspective, let's examine some of the most successful fantasy running backs who have had an ACL surgery and made it back to an NFL field. As Charles is 25 years old with just 499 career carries and 616 touches, he probably stands as good a chance as any such running back of making a full recovery.


Extensive researched turned up 15 players who: A) managed at least 150 fantasy points in the final 16 complete games they played immediately before suffering the injury, B) appeared in at least one game following ACL surgery, and C) were running backs. This study, therefore, excludes players like Kevin Jones, who scored 144 fantasy points in his final 16 games before getting hurt, Billy Sims, who never returned following ACL surgery, and Tom Brady, an amazing ACL surgery success story but who obviously is not a running back.


Statistics in the chart below are broken down by: The date the player suffered the injury, his age on that day, the number of days he missed, and his average fantasy points and touches per game in the 16 games before the injury, the 16 immediately after, and then the 16 after that (Games 17-32 following his return).



<style type="text/css">.mod-inline td img {margin: 0px;}</style><table style="margin: 0px; width: 100%;"><thead><tr><th style="vertical-align: bottom;" colSpan="3"> </th><th style="vertical-align: bottom;" colSpan="2"><center>16 G before</center></th><th style="vertical-align: bottom;"><center> </center></th><th style="vertical-align: bottom;" colSpan="2"><center>16 G after</center></th><th style="vertical-align: bottom;" colSpan="2"><center>Next 16 G</center></th></tr></thead><tbody><thead><tr><th style="vertical-align: bottom;">Player</th><th style="vertical-align: bottom;"><center>Date
injured</center></th><th style="vertical-align: bottom;"><center>Age</center></th><th style="vertical-align: bottom;"><center>FPTS
/G</center></th><th style="vertical-align: bottom;"><center>Touch
/G</center></th><th style="vertical-align: bottom;"><center>Days
missed</center></th><th style="vertical-align: bottom;"><center>FPTS
/G</center></th><th style="vertical-align: bottom;"><center>Touch
/G</center></th><th style="vertical-align: bottom;"><center>FPTS
/G</center></th><th style="vertical-align: bottom;"><center>Touch
/G</center></th></tr></thead><tbody><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;">Terry Allen</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">July 1993</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">25.4</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">14.6</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">19.7</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">416</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">9.8</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">17.0</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">12.8</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">23.1</td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;">Jamal Anderson</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">9/20/1999</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">27.0</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">18.3</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">26.5</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">349</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">9.8</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">20.3</td><td style="vertical-align: middle; background-color: rgb(248, 248, 242);" align="center">12.0</td><td style="vertical-align: middle; background-color: rgb(248, 248, 242);" align="center">19.3</td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;">Ronnie Brown</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">10/21/2007</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">25.9</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">13.8</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">21.4</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">322</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">10.3</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">15.4</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">10.2</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">16.6</td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;">Terrell Davis</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">10/3/1999</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">26.9</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">18.6</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">25.3</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">337</td><td style="vertical-align: middle; background-color: rgb(248, 248, 242);" align="center">8.4</td><td style="vertical-align: middle; background-color: rgb(248, 248, 242);" align="center">19.9</td><td style="vertical-align: middle; background-color: rgb(248, 248, 242);" colSpan="2" align="center">Retired</td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;">Olandis Gary</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">9/4/2000</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">25.3</td><td style="vertical-align: middle; background-color: rgb(248, 248, 242);" align="center">13.5</td><td style="vertical-align: middle; background-color: rgb(248, 248, 242);" align="center">24.8</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">371</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">3.2</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">6.5</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">2.8</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">6.8</td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;">Edgerrin James</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">10/25/2001</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">23.2</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">19.2</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">29.0</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">318</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">10.4</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">24.4</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">16.3</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">27.7</td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;">Terry Kirby</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">9/25/1994</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">24.7</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">10.6</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">14.4</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">343</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">8.4</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">10.9</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">8.0</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">13.2</td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;">Jamal Lewis</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">8/8/2001</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">22.0</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">11.7</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">21.0</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">396</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">11.9</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">22.2</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">18.0</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">25.8</td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;">Deuce McAllister</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">10/9/2005</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">26.8</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">13.5</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">23.6</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">336</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">11.3</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">17.9</td><td style="vertical-align: middle; background-color: rgb(248, 248, 242);" align="center">5.7</td><td style="vertical-align: middle; background-color: rgb(248, 248, 242);" align="center">9.4</td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;">Deuce McAllister</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">9/24/2007</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">28.7</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">10.9</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">17.2</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">356</td><td style="vertical-align: middle; background-color: rgb(248, 248, 242);" align="center">6.4</td><td style="vertical-align: middle; background-color: rgb(248, 248, 242);" align="center">9.6</td><td style="vertical-align: middle; background-color: rgb(248, 248, 242);" colSpan="2" align="center">Retired</td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;">Dominic Rhodes</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">8/15/2002</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">23.6</td><td style="vertical-align: middle; background-color: rgb(248, 248, 242);" align="center">11.3</td><td style="vertical-align: middle; background-color: rgb(248, 248, 242);" align="center">17.8</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">409</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">2.4</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">4.1</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">2.7</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">3.8</td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;">Gale Sayers</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">11/10/1968</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">25.5</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">12.9</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">16.6</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">315</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">9.8</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">17.3</td><td style="vertical-align: middle; background-color: rgb(248, 248, 242);" align="center">1.5</td><td style="vertical-align: middle; background-color: rgb(248, 248, 242);" align="center">6.5</td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;">Kevin Smith</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">12/13/2009</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">23.0</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">11.2</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">21.2</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">294</td><td style="vertical-align: middle; background-color: rgb(248, 248, 242);" align="center">8.4</td><td style="vertical-align: middle; background-color: rgb(248, 248, 242);" align="center">3.5</td><td style="vertical-align: middle; background-color: rgb(248, 248, 242);" colSpan="2" align="center">2012: ???</td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;">Curt Warner</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">9/3/1984</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">23.5</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">15.5</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">23.6</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">370</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">11.3</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">21.1</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">15.4</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">22.5</td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;">Ickey Woods</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">9/17/1989</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">23.6</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">13.5</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">15.3</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">400</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">5.9</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">7.7</td><td style="vertical-align: middle; background-color: rgb(248, 248, 242);" align="center">2.0</td><td style="vertical-align: middle; background-color: rgb(248, 248, 242);" align="center">1.0</td></tr><thead><tr><th style="vertical-align: middle;">Average player</th><th style="vertical-align: bottom;"><center> </center></th><th style="vertical-align: bottom;"><center>25.0</center></th><th style="vertical-align: bottom;"><center>13.6</center></th><th style="vertical-align: bottom;"><center>23.3</center></th><th style="vertical-align: bottom;"><center>355</center></th><th style="vertical-align: bottom;"><center>8.5</center></th><th style="vertical-align: bottom;"><center>14.7</center></th><th style="vertical-align: bottom;"><center>10.0</center></th><th style="vertical-align: bottom;"><center>16.2</center></th></tr></thead></table>




Shaded blocks signify that the player didn't appear in the full 16 games during that statistical split; the details for these players can be read at column's end.


What this shows is that Charles not only can expect a downturn in production, but also noticeably diminished usage. These running backs, on average, touched the football 8.6 fewer times per game in the 16 games following ACL surgery than in the 16 games preceding it. And that makes sense in Charles' example, given the structure of the Chiefs' backfield entering 2012.


Here's why: Hillis, who had two of his best games of 2011 in the season's final month, has fresh legs following a 183-touch campaign, not to mention has been drawing rave reviews for his early practice sessions. He was the team's first-string back during OTAs, and will undoubtedly be the one of the two most prepared to absorb the start come Week 1 of the regular season, if needed. Another point in Hillis' favor: Brian Daboll, the Chiefs' new offensive coordinator, held the same position for the Browns in 2010, when Hillis had his best season.


Let's not forget, after all, how the Chiefs used Charles when Jones was present at the onset of 2010. Seeking to get the most bang for their buck from Jones early, Jones averaged 18.0 touches in three games in the month of September and 17.0 in four games in October; Charles averaged 13.0 in September and 20.0 in October. Charles was also completely healthy and on a career upswing at the time, whereas today, he's entering the season with unanswered questions. There's little reason to expect a different arrangement this season, barring an unexpected turn of events like a Hillis injury between now and then.


Hillis can also -- long term -- take much of the grunt work off Charles' hands, including third downs (be aware that Hillis is as skilled a pass-catcher as Charles), short-yardage plays and goal-line work. The latter will drain some of Charles' fantasy value. At the same time, working in a similar arrangement in 2010, Charles managed the third-best fantasy season by any running back, tallying 223 points.


Charles has already resumed practicing, and that the Chiefs appear set to employ a zone blocking scheme suits his skill set. Consider it a signal that he's held in regard the team's "lead" back, meaning that, health willing, his basement expectation might be an even split of the rushing chores with Hillis. The primary loss, therefore, might only be those short-yardage touchdowns.


As for the quality of those carries and touches, here's something to consider: The Chiefs, who already possessed one of the better run-blocking offensive lines in football, patched the unit's major weakness this offseason, when they added Eric Winston to supplant the mediocre Barry Richardson at right tackle.

According to an offseason Kansas City Star report, Romeo Crennel, Daboll and Chiefs brass want Hillis and Charles, combined, to touch the football at least 500 times. A good guess: They might approach or exceed the Jones/Charles 534 number in 2010.


Care for a guess at their month-by-month touches on a per-game basis? Let's give it a shot:

September: Hillis 19, Charles 14
October: Hillis 18, Charles 17
November: Charles 18, Hillis 17
December: Charles 19, Hillis 13


Even their lowest monthly per-game averages -- 13 for Hillis in December, 14 for Charles in September -- assure sizable enough workloads for both to be fantasy assets all season. Perhaps this is one of the few backfields worth a handcuff, being that the baton, figuratively speaking, might be gradually handed off to Charles as the weeks progress. But here's a thought: Might it be that Hillis is the draft-day steal to be had, but a sell-high come Oct. 15, while Charles is a brilliant buy-low come then?


It's sure worth giving a strategic try.


Chart notes: Several players appeared in fewer than 16 games following ACL surgery. Jamal Anderson retired after only 19 games, playing just three in 2001 (all of which were among his "Next 16 G"). Terrell Davis retired after only 13, those spread across 2000-01. Olandis Gary appeared in only 12 full games before succumbing to ACL surgery in 2000. Deuce McAllister -- who underwent ACL surgeries on both knees, albeit in separate seasons -- played in 18 games between his two surgeries, and only 13 following his second before retirement. Dominic Rhodes played 15 games as a rookie in 2001 before getting hurt during the 2002 preseason. Gale Sayers had multiple surgeries, the second of which prematurely ended his career after 18 games between operations. Kevin Smith remains active, playing only 13 games since his return from ACL surgery in 2009. Ickey Woods played in 19 games, 10 in 1990 and nine in 1991 (three of which were among his "Next 16 G") before retiring.

 

[HacheMan]

AFC Camp Coverage
I wouldn't trade the Rotoworld readership for any in the fantasy sports industry. In close to five years with this Time's Top-50 Website, I've received roughly a handful of negative emails per year. Those few emailers registering at the complaint department can be broken into three primary categories: 1. Tebow Haters 2. Tebow Lovers 3. Why no love for (fill in the blank)?



The Tebow emails can easily be chalked up to the lunatic fringe. The "Why no love for X" emails are generally accompained by accusations that Rotoworld has an agenda and a bias. To which I reply, "Of course we do. It's our entire justification for existence." If Rotoworld had a mission statement, it would essentially be, "We exist to tell you which fantasy players you should and should not own." Our team of football writers watches the games, tracks depth chart changes and injuries, hunts down local and national news and puts a bloodhound onto the trail of breakout players so you can concentrate on your day job with no concern that the other owners in your league are gaining inside information.



If we advocate for or against a player, it's to give you an edge on your competition. There's no incentive for Rotoworld to withhold "love" from your favorite player unless we believe that player will lead your fantasy squad to its demise.



In other words, there is a Rotoworld bias. I've been a devoted daily reader since the early days of AllStarStatsInc. over a decade ago, long before I started with the company. Along the way, I formed many strong opinions and developed potent instincts, thanks in large part to Rotoworld's analysis and new scroll. Once I started writing in these pages, the most emphatic guidance Gregg Rosenthal ever directed my way was to ensure that the news blurbs remain opinionated, knowledgeable and entertaining whenever possible. Maintain a strong stance on a player's outlook for those readers too busy with family obligations and TPS reports to dissect the offerings of beat writers and NFL insiders.



That said, I confess there's always been a small part of me more inclined to lead the reader to the information, letting each fantasy owner jump to conclusions or nurture hunches of his or her own volition. Let's face it, even the most astute among those of us paid to distill advice won't nail sleepers, busts, breakout stars and impact rookies with 100 percent accuracy. Who's to say the opinions you've formed in doing your own homework won't lead to more success than the so-called experts' recommendations?



It's with that breed of fantasy owner in mind that I've compiled a list of the most reliable sources so you can track each NFL team during training camp and preseason action. If you remain hesitant to jump into the Twitter fray, check out the newspapers and blogs in the mean time. The AFC team links are below; I will have the NFC teams this weekend.



AFC East


Buffalo Bills

Twitter: @JoeB_WGR, @ChrisBrownBills, @ByTimGraham, @MarkLud12, @CBSSportsNFLBUF, @SalSports, @john_wawrow, @salmaiorana, @espn_afceast, @buffalobills

Primary Coverage: WGR 550 Buffalo, Buffalo News, buffalobills.com, Rochester Democrat and Chronicle

Blogs: WGR 550 Joe’s Bills Beat Blog, Buffalo News Press Coverage, Buffalobills.com Inside the Bills Blog, ESPN AFC East Blog, CBS Sports Rapid Reports, SB Nation Buffalo Rumblings, Buffalo Sports Daily, MPN Now Going for Goldman Blog



Miami Dolphins

Twitter: @BenVolinPBP, @ArmandoSalguero, @AdamHBeasley, @bbiggane, @IzzyGould, @CBSSportsNFLMIA, @MikeBerardino, @KLV760, @OmarKelly, @espn_afceast, @MiamiDolphins

Primary Coverage: Miami Herald, Palm Beach Post, South Florida Sun-Sentinel, Miamidolphins.com

Blogs: Miami Herald Dolphins in Depth, Palm Beach Post The Daily Dolphin, South Florida Sun-Sentinel Dolphins Blog, ESPN AFC East Blog, CBS Sports Rapid Reports, SB Nation The Phinsider, Miami Herald Sports Buzz, South Florida Sun-Sentinel Sports Season Ticket, CBS Miami



New England Patriots

Twitter: @GregABedard, @MikeReiss, @tomecurran, @jeffphowe, @FieldYates, @shalisemyoung, @kguregian, @Nick_Underhill, @CBSSportsNFLNE, @Mary_Paoletti, @espn_afceast, @Patriots

Primary Coverage: Boston Globe, ESPN Boston, CSN New England, Boston Herald, WEEI.com, MassLive.com, Providence Journal, NESN.com, Patriots.com

Blogs: Boston Globe Extra Points, Boston Herald The Blitz, CSN Tom Curran, ESPN Boston Mike Reiss, ESPN AFC East Blog, CBS Sports Rapid Reports, SB Nation Pats Pulpit, Patriots.com Football Weekly, CBS Boston



New York Jets

Twitter: @MMehtaNYDN, @RichCimini, @JennyVrentas, @BrianCoz, @JPPelzman, @KMart_LI, @janesports, @HubbuchNYP, @CBSSportsNFLNYJ, @DWAZ73, @espn_afceast, @nyjets

Primary Coverage: New York Daily News, ESPN New York, Newark Star-Ledger, New York Post, Bergen Record, New York Times, Newsday, Newyorkjets.com

Blogs: Daily News The Jets Stream, Post Jets Blog, Bergen Record Green Machine, Newsday Nothing but Jets, ESPN New York Rich Cimini, SNY.TV Jets Blog, ESPN AFC East Blog, CBS Sports Rapid Reports, Newyorkjets.com Randy’s Radar, SB Nation Gang Green Nation, CBS New York



AFC North


Baltimore Ravens

Twitter: @RavensInsider, @jeffzrebiecsun, @MattVensel, @espnafc_north, @CSNEisenberg, @JasonButtCBS, @CBSSportsNFLBAL, @MASNJoshLand, @BaltimoreLuke, @Ravens_247, @Ravens

Primary Coverage: Baltimore Sun, Carroll County Times, CSN Baltimore, MASN.com, Baltimoreravens.com

Blogs: Sun Ravens Insider, Times Ravens Blog, Baltimoreravens.com Blogs, CSN Ravens Talk, ESPN AFC North Blog, CBS Sports Rapid Reports, Sun Mike Preston, SB Nation Baltimore Beatdown, Press Box Online Ravens Report, CBS Baltimore



Cincinnati Bengals

Twitter: @joereedy, @GeoffHobsonCIN, @CBSSportsNFLCIN, @TheJayMorrison, @pauldehnerjr, @Kevin_Goheen, @FSOhioZJackson, @apjoekay, @JoeGoodberry, @espnafc_north, @Bengals

Primary Coverage: Cincinnati Enquirer, Bengals.com, Dayton Daily News, Fox Sports Ohio, Kentucky Post

Blogs: Enquirer Bengals Blog Network, Bengals.com Hobson’s Choice, ESPN AFC North Blog, CBS Sports Rapid Reports, Daily News Big C’s NFL Blitz, SB Nation Cincy Jungle



Cleveland Browns

Twitter: @MaryKayCabot, @TonyGrossi, @NateUlrichABJ, @ScottPetrak, @jsbrownsinsider, @CBSSportsNFLCLE, @FredGreethamOBR, @WillBurge, @TheDanielWolf, @RuiterWrongFAN, @jamir2010browns, @espnafc_north, @OfficialBrowns

Primary Coverage: Cleveland Plain Dealer, Akron Beacon Journal, Canton Repository, ESPN Cleveland, Elyria Chronicle-Telegram, Lake County News Herald, Fox Sports Ohio, Clevelandbrowns.com

Blogs: Repository Fresh Brownies, Beacon Journal Browns Blog, Clevelandbrowns.com Carucci’s Corner, ESPN AFC North Blog, CBS Sports Rapid Reports, SB Nation Dawgs by Nature, CBS Cleveland



Pittsburgh Steelers

Twitter: @EdBouchette, @gerrydulac, @ScottBrown_Trib, @arobinson_Trib, @MarkKaboly_Trib, @dlolleyor, @jimwexell, @CBSSportsNFLPIT, @ken_laird, @espnafc_north, @steelers

Primary Coverage: Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, Pittsburgh Tribune-Review, Beaver County Times, Washington Observer Reporter, Steelers.com

Blogs: Tribune-Review Steel Mill, PG+ Steelers, Observer Reporter NFL from the Sidelines, ESPN AFC North Blog, CBS Sports Rapid Reports, Times Steel Crazy, Steelers.com Blog, SB Nation Behind the Steel Curtain, CBS Pittsburgh



<!--RW-->AFC South


Houston Texans

Twitter: @McClain_on_NFL, @NickScurfield, @taniaganguli, @StephStradley, @LanceZierlein, @CBSSportsNFLHOU, @AlanBurge, @MarkBerman26, @espn_afcsouth, @texansinsider, @HoustonTexans

Primary Coverage: Houston Chronicle, Houstontexans.com, Fox Sports Houston

Blogs: Chronicle John McClain, Houstontexans.com Off the Turf with Scurf, Chronicle Lance Zierlein, Chronicle Stephanie Stradley, ESPN AFC South Blog, CBS Sports Rapid Reports, SB Nation Battle Red Blog, CBS Houston


Indianapolis Colts

Twitter: @mchappell51, pwilson24, @gmbremer, @PhilRichards6, @TribStarTJames, @bkravitz, @reggiehayes1, @CBSSportsNFLIND, @NateDunlevy, @espn_afcsouth, @JimIrsay, @nflcolts

Primary Coverage: Indianapolis Star, Terre Haute Tribune-Star, Anderson Herald Bulletin, Fort Wayne News-Sentinel, Colts.com

Blogs: Star The Dean, Star Bounce It off Phil B, ESPN AFC South Blog, CBS Sports Rapid Reports, SB Nation Stampede Blue, The Colts Authority, Colts.com Blog


Jacksonville Jaguars

Twitter: @vitostellino, @JohnOehser, @APMarkLong, @GeneFrenette, @CBSSportsNFLJAC, @AlfieBCC, @nflcharlie, @espn_afcsouth, @jaguarsinsider, @jaguarscom

Primary Coverage: Florida Times-Union, Jaguars.com, Fox Sports Florida

Blogs: Times-Union Jaguars Blog, Jaguars.com The O-Zone, ESPN AFC South Blog, CBS Sports Rapid Reports, SB Nation Big Cat Country, Sports Talk Florida Charlie Bernstein


Tennessee Titans

Twitter: @jwyattsports, @terrymc13, @glennonsports, @TitanInsider247, @BoclairSports, @CBSSportsNFLTEN, @danomiteTN, @hutton1045, @WillyD1025, @espn_afcsouth, @tennesseetitans

Primary Coverage: Nashville Tennessean, TitanInsider, Nashville City Paper, Titansonline.com, Fox Sports Tennessee

Blogs: Tennessean Titans Insider, Titansonline.com Blog, ESPN AFC South Blog, CBS Sports Rapid Reports, SB Nation Music City Miracles



AFC West


Denver Broncos

Twitter: @MikeKlis, @PostBroncos, @MaxBroncos, @CBSSportsNFLDEN, @VicLombardi, @JosinaAnderson, @Jeff_Legwold, @DaveKrieger, @espn_afcwest, @johnelway, @Denver_Broncos

Primary Coverage: Denver Post, MaxDenver.com, Denverbroncos.com

Blogs: Post First-and-Orange, Denverbroncos.com Blogs, ESPN.com AFC West Blog, CBS Sports Rapid Reports, SB Nation Mile High Report, 850 KOA Dave Krieger, CBS Denver


Kansas City Chiefs

Twitter: @JoshLooney, @ChiefsinStJo, @adamteicher, @randycovitz, @kentbabb, @CBSSportsNFLKC, @SJNPSports, @getnickwright, @ArrowheadPride, @Jacobs71, @bobfescoe, @bobgretzcom, @espn_afcwest, @kcchiefs

Primary Coverage: Kansas City Star, Kcchiefs.com, St. Joseph News-Press, Topeka Capital-Journal, Fox Sports Kansas City

Blogs: Kcchiefs.com Josh Looney, Star Red Zone, SB Nation Arrowhead Pride, ESPN.com AFC West Blog, CBS Sports Rapid Reports, Arrowhead Addict


Oakland Raiders

Twitter: @CorkOnTheNFL, @jerrymcd, @PGutierrezCSN, @VicTafur, @JDJohnDickinson, @1MontePoole, @CBSportsNFLOAK, @MWagaman, @timkawakami, @espn_afcwest, @RAIDERS

Primary Coverage: Contra Costa Times, San Jose Mercury News, CSN Bay Area, San Francisco Chronicle, Sacramento Bee, Raiders.com

Blogs: CSN Raiders Talk, Chronicle Silver & Black, ESPN.com AFC West Blog, CBS Sports Rapid Reports, SB Nation Silver & Black Pride, CBS San Francisco


San Diego Chargers

Twitter: @UTKevinAcee, @UTgehlken, @NCTChargers, @sandiegosports, @ChargersPRguy, @MartyCaswell, @espn_afcwest, @chargers

Primary Coverage: Union-Tribune San Diego, North County Times, Fox Sports San Diego, Chargers.com

Blogs: Union-Tribune Bolts Bulletin, Times Chargers Blog, CBS Sports Rapid Reports, ESPN.com AFC West Blog, SB Nation Bolts from the Blue, Chargers.com Blog

 

[HacheMan]

We Have Football
The 2012 NFL preseason kicked off Sunday night when the Cardinals and Saints met in the Hall of Fame Game. First-teamers didn't play much beyond the first quarter on either side, but we at least finally have a small sample from which to make observations. An undrafted rookie roster long shot was the star of the show, and that's a reminder that NFL preseason games don’t quite forecast what will go down in October and November. But it's football, and we'll gladly take it.

My five takeaways from Sunday night's preseason opener:

1. John Skelton took the lead in Arizona's quarterback battle.

The Cardinals have four preseason games left and won't be naming a starter for several weeks, but Skelton surged ahead in the exhibition opener, while "first-teamer" Kevin Kolb stepped back. I thought Mike Lombardi put it well on NFL Network's post-game show: Kolb is a player we constantly say "will get better," but just never does. Kolb threw a brutal interception on his first pass of the Hall of Fame Game. The offense went three-and-out on his second possession. Kolb was injured on his third series, suffering a bruised rib and diaphragm. And he didn’t return to the lineup.

Skelton engineered a 14-play, 89-yard TD drive on his lone full possession. It was telling that Ken Whisenhunt pulled him immediately thereafter. The Cardinals need Skelton to be their starter.

The quarterback in Arizona must be able to do two things well: 1) Maintain composure behind the Cardinals' sieve of an offensive line, and 2) Get the football to Larry Fitzgerald. Skelton will do the former better than Kolb -- without question. And he did the latter better than Kolb last year, too.

2. Mark Ingram is 100 percent again.

I missed on Ingram last year. I blew it. I recommended him as an early-round fantasy pick and he didn't deliver, ranking 37th in weekly running back scoring before succumbing to a season-ending toe injury after ten games. But the value on Ingram is pretty intriguing in 2012 drafts. Whereas his Average Draft Position was late in the fourth round last year, it's early in the eighth frame this year.

Fully cleared after a toe operation and offseason knee scope, Ingram played with the Saints' first-team red-zone offense Sunday night. He looked sharp on a ten-yard cutback run from the Arizona 13-yard line, and punched it into the end zone two plays later, showing power to barrel through Cards OLB O'Brien Schofield's tackle attempt. The fact that New Orleans' medical staff let Ingram play in the exhibition opener after a rehab-filled offseason confirms they are comfortable with his health. And he offers high-scoring potential as the Saints' go-to back in scoring position this year.

3. Michael Floyd has a ways to go.

The first-round pick played with Arizona's second- and third-team offenses in the Hall of Fame Game, working behind Andre Roberts at Z receiver and catching one ball for 15 yards. Floyd saw four targets. It's not as if he was out there dropping balls -- third-string quarterback Richard Bartel obviously lacks touch and accuracy -- but Floyd has ground to make up to catch Roberts, on whom the Cardinals' coaching staff remains high despite a pedestrian first season as a starter.

Floyd has talent, but he's likely a season or two away from offering any realistic chance at WR3 consistency. The Cardinals will need much better quarterback play in order to support more than one viable fantasy pass catcher. Fitzgerald has that on lock down, and seam-stretching tight end Rob Housler, who caught three passes for 51 yards Sunday night, might be "ahead" of Floyd, too.

4. Travaris Cadet may make Chris Ivory expendable in New Orleans.

Background: Travaris Cadet is an undrafted free agent out of Appalachian State, where he starred as a return specialist and tailback after backing up Armanti Edwards at quarterback in 2009. The Saints signed Cadet to a three-year contract that included a $5,000 signing bonus just after April's draft. He ran an unimpressive 4.67 forty at 6-foot, 205 at the Mountaineers' March 19 Pro Day, so clearly New Orleans GM Mickey Loomis liked Cadet's tape. Cadet is not much of a workout guy.

Although he scuffled as a ball carrier, Cadet played faster against Arizona than his forty time suggests. Assuming the Darren Sproles role on New Orleans' second-team offense led by Chase Daniel, Cadet showed excellent field vision and ran hard. Ivory is a famously violent runner, and wears No. 29. Cadet dons 39, and there were times he looked just like Ivory. Cadet finished with a game-high eight receptions for 80 yards and a touchdown. He efficiently secured 8-of-9 targets.

Cadet remains on the outside looking in at a roster spot, but Loomis could keep him as a fourth back if the Saints find a trade partner for Ivory. Ivory got little room to run in the preseason opener, but you can be sure Cards S James Sanders felt his red-zone tackle of Ivory on Monday morning. Ivory runs like he’s hungry.

5. Rob Housler is a player worth monitoring closely this August.

The 69th pick in last year's draft, Housler clocked a 4.55 forty at 6-foot-5, 248 during the 2011 Scouting Combine and has the size-speed combo to be a fantasy asset in his second season. Against the Saints, Housler teased his potential with a couple of seam-busting plays. He caught three of his four targets, the lone incompletion coming on another rocket ball from Bartel, lacking touch. Bartel did find him for gains of 32 and 14, and Housler also stood out as a run blocker.
<!--RW-->

Mike Wallace vs. Antonio Brown

For the first time ever, the NFL has made All-22 Coaches Tape available to the public, as part of its Game Rewind package. The Coaches Tape is called "All 22" because it allows us to see all 22 offensive and defensive players in one picture. NFL.com's package provides two shots of each snap, the first from a higher sideline angle and the second from the end zone. We can actually see the safeties, and receivers' full routes. You can't see those things watching the games on T.V.

I took my first crack at the All-22 Tape last night, watching three Steelers games: Week 8 versus New England, Week 15 at San Francisco, and Pittsburgh's Wild Card round loss to the Broncos. I wanted to learn more about Mike Wallace and Antonio Brown. Wallace wanted big money this offseason. Brown got it, and the Steelers are letting unsigned holdout Wallace twist in the wind.

I wound up viewing about 225 snaps and 30 targets of Wallace, and 180 snaps and 30-something targets of Brown. (Brown wasn't quite an every-down player, even during his hot stretch run.) And I think the Steelers are going to sorely miss their best offensive weapon, if they continue to play hardball with him.

Though sometimes billed as a one-trick pony deep threat, Wallace beat the defense in the three games on a variety of patterns. He ran comebacks, drags, and screens in addition to fly routes, and regularly looked like the best player on the field. Wallace is a skinny receiver, but he runs well after the catch, and that was particularly evident in the 49ers game. The Broncos primarily used top cornerback Champ Bailey in coverage of Wallace in the playoffs, while Brown squared off with Andre’ Goodman. Denver released Goodman this offseason. Against New England, the Pats consistently placed two to three defenders in Wallace's vicinity. Bill Belichick was worried about him.

I can't speak responsibly to route running because I don't know the play calls and assignments, but Wallace did seem to round off his patterns and freelance on occasion. I think the bottom line is that Wallace got open downfield more than any other Steelers receiver. It's probably safe to say that's a good thing.

Wallace is a dynamic player -- much more so than Brown. I really don't even think it's close between the two. "60 Minutes" keeps the defense on its heels. Because Wallace so often requires two or even three defenders in his area, the field opens up for others. Brown is a good player, a really good receiver who plays at a crisp pace and has earned Ben Roethlisberger's trust. Brown has sure hands and is capable of highlight-reel catches.

But Wallace is a great player. An every-snap difference maker, schooling defenders with the ball in his hands and taking away coverage even when his number isn't called. And here's guessing that's why the Steelers are refusing to trade him.



The Pittsburgh offense won't be the same without him.

 

[HacheMan]

Does Terrell Owens have any magic left?

Eric Karabell

My first thought upon hearing the news that the Seattle Seahawks were even interested in 38-year-old free-agent wide receiver Terrell Owens was that it was a nice gesture with little downside to give him a tryout. Now that Owens and the Seahawks have actually agreed to a one-year contract, I wonder whether player or team is more desperate.




Let's start with Owens. He's obviously not young anymore, and while I've never played on a team with him and thus can't vouch for whether he's a good teammate or not, he obviously brings some off-field baggage. The last NFL team he played for was the 2010 Cincinnati Bengals, and to be fair, he wasn't bad statistically. Owens caught 72 passes for 983 yards and nine scores. Of course, then he tore his left ACL, couldn't find an NFL team to sign him and had an interesting tenure with the Allen Wranglers of the Indoor Football League. I won't quote his stats there, if you don't mind.


<offer>According to ESPN Stats and Information, Green Bay Packers wide receiver Donald Driver was the only player in the NFL older than 35 to catch more than 20 passes last season. Overall, 185 different players reached 20 receptions. Driver, in an elite offense with the best quarterback, managed 74 standard fantasy points (37 receptions, 6 TDs). Owens, meanwhile, is going to an offense far from elite. Who is Seattle's quarterback? Will the star running back be eligible for 16 games? What about the offensive line? Pardon my skepticism, but don't expect 72 receptions for 983 yards and nine touchdowns from Owens this season. Then again, what is his competition?</offer>
<offer></offer>
<offer>I seem to be higher than most on Seahawks free-agent quarterback Matt Flynn, coincidentally a teammate of Driver's the past few seasons, but I acknowledge he might get beaten out by Tarvaris Jackson as starter initially. I don't have Flynn among my top 20 quarterbacks. I don't have Jackson in my top 30. And the only Seahawks wide receiver among my top 40 at the position is Sidney Rice, coming in right at No. 40 and outside my top 100 overall.



As I noted earlier, the Seahawks might as well take the chance, because they probably have no idea if Rice can overcome multiple shoulder surgeries and concussion woes to play regularly, let alone produce at a top-notch level. Laugh at Owens if you like, but look at Rice; his last healthy, relevant season was back in 2009. It was awesome, but a year earlier than Owens' last bit of relevance.


In other words, it's certainly possible Owens earns a significant role among the Seahawks' wide receivers corps. There's no Steve Largent here. The team recently signed Braylon Edwards, but anyone that relied on him in fantasy in 2011, when he dealt with knee and shoulder problems while hauling in all of 15 passes for the San Francisco 49ers, should be skeptical at this point. I think any thoughts I had that young Doug Baldwin could break out are probably misplaced now, and surely Golden Tate and Ben Obomanu are a bit more buried now. Plus, it's not like Tom Brady is the starting quarterback, either. If Owens went to Denver to play with Peyton Manning, then I'd, well, I still wouldn't go all gaga here.


Owens is 38 and far from a sure thing. It's a no-risk deal for Seattle, especially considering the reasonable price tag. At some point, we'll see which receiving options rise above the rest in training camp and preseason games, but I can't see using a roster spot in a standard fantasy football league, 10 or 12 teams, on him. In fact, I can't say I'm interested in Rice, either. Running back Marshawn Lynch is slipping out of the second round in many drafts and brings his own set of issues, and I wonder if the Seahawks should concentrate on depth at his position instead of at wide receiver.


Ultimately, I'm left with this on Owens: No matter how fast he ran in the tryout for Seattle, he's a complicated person. It's hard to imagine this will be a perfect union, like Randy Moss in New England (for awhile, at least). It wouldn't shock me if Flynn wins the starting quarterback job and with Rice in and out of the lineup, Owens becomes the top receiving option, but no Seahawk player caught more than 51 passes last season or reached 800 receiving yards or five touchdowns, and I see no reason to adjust that thinking today. Like the Seahawks, there's little downside on choosing Owens very late in your draft, but it's awfully optimistic to expect things to work out well.
</offer>