NFL Fantasy News 2012

HacheMan · Aug 29, 2012

The Hidden Value of Handcuffs
Not many people have had the opportunity to chat with Jaguars holdout Maurice Jones-Drew this past month or so.

I had that opportunity last Wednesday…and I like to think I took advantage.

Thanks to the fine folks at DirecTV, who organized the event to promote their NFL Sunday Ticket product, I was able to join a live video conference with Jones-Drew, Brent Celek, and host Andrew Siciliano. One of the first “analysts” to join the conversation, I was able to ask the question many fantasy owners have on their mind:

“Maurice, I’m kind of curious what you think – as are most fantasy owners – of your backup Rashad Jennings. If he’s put in a position where he does have to carry a load for a long period of time, for a few games, what do you think he can do?”

His response: “Rashad is a very, very good runner. I mean, from the time he got there, he’s worked hard at it. He’s great in open field. He can make guys miss. He’s big enough to run through tackles. We’ve obviously seen in the preseason what he’s done. I definitely feel like he’s a guy that, given an opportunity, wherever it may be, he’s going to make plays. And so, like I said before, I hear a lot of people trying to do this “handcuffing” thing. If that’s what you feel, Rashad is a very capable guy.”

I tend to agree with Jones-Drew. Although there’s certainly a drop-off in talent (my words), Jennings would see enough of a workload and is good enough of a player to easily find himself on the fantasy radar. In fact, I’d be willing to go as far as to call him a strong RB2 option.

And that got me thinking. Does Jennings, at least at his pre-MJD-holdout ADP, actually add to Jones-Drew’s fantasy value?

Think about it.

There’s more demand than supply at the running back position. You’re almost forced to take one early and maybe even a pair in the first two rounds. Like your house, car, and health, because you’re making such a huge investment, it’s important to pay up for insurance. And, if you’ve ever shopped for insurance, you know that sometimes you can get the exact same, if not better, coverage elsewhere, and at a cheaper rate.

The same concept can be applied to fantasy football handcuffs. If you can pick a different insurance provider (star running back) and get better coverage at a cheaper rate (a back who would be fantasy-relevant in a full-time role with a late-round pick), isn’t it a no brainer?

Today, I’ll run through each team and pick out the handcuffs that make the biggest impact, for better or worse, on the team’s starting, fantasy-relevant tailback. Again the two characteristics I’ll be focusing on are as follows: (1) The handcuff’s fantasy value if the starter is out of action and (2) ADP.

Group 1 - Clear handcuffs at a good price

Big Boost

Michael Turner – Jacquizz Rodgers (ADP: 118.1)
LeSean McCoy – Dion Lewis (ADP: N/A)
Marshawn Lynch – Robert Turbin (ADP: 164.5)
Steven Jackson – Isaiah Pead (ADP: 144.8)
Stevan Ridley – Shane Vereen (ADP: 143.0)

These backs benefit the most from the situation behind them on the depth chart. You can upgrade these players knowing that you can land a capable handcuff late in your draft. This way, if your starter suffers a long-term injury, you’re still in relatively good shape.

Turner paces the field even though Rodgers’ ADP is pushing the tenth round. Still, that’s not a bad price to pay for a guy who would see 15-plus touches in a growing offense. Jackson and Lynch make the list despite their primary backup job belonging to a rookie. Pead and Turbin, respectively, are being selected after the 12th round and would be in for healthy roles if asked to start. That is, even with Daryl Richardson and Leon Washington in the picture, respectively.

McCoy’s handcuff, Lewis, isn’t being drafted in most 16-round leagues, which is surprising considering that Lewis is locked in as his primary backup. Ridley enjoys a boost even though Vereen would share with Danny Woodhead and potentially Brandon Bolden. Still, he’d see a significant workload and goal line work.

Moderate Boost

Frank Gore – Kendall Hunter (ADP: 151.5)
Chris Johnson – Javon Ringer (ADP: 175.5)
DeMarco Murray – Felix Jones (ADP: 141.3)
Reggie Bush – Daniel Thomas (ADP: 127.7)

The backs listed here have handcuffs that would be in for a big increase in role, but aren’t quite as talented as those receiving a big boost and/or would have additional competition for touches.

Johnson and Murray can be grouped together because both are in a situation where their backup is both experienced and would basically be the clear-cut lead back if called upon to start. Ringer would face a little bit of heat from Jamie Harper, but would see a good 15 or so carries and a few targets. Jones will already be helping on passing downs and Phillip Tanner isn’t much of a threat.

Gore and Bush are also in a similar boat, as they’re involved in backfields with quite a bit of depth. If Gore is out, Hunter proves the most upside among remaining backs on the roster, but he’d need to fend off Brandon Jacobs at the goal line and LaMichael James on passing downs. If Bush misses time, Thomas is the favorite to take on most of the workload, but Steve Slaton and especially rookie Lamar Miller would be all over his coattail.

Small Boost

Doug Martin – LeGarrette Blount (ADP: 114.7)
Mark Ingram – Pierre Thomas (ADP: 122.7)
BenJarvus Green-Ellis – Bernard Scott (ADP: 165.6)

The backs enjoying only a small boost have handcuffs who are being picked in the later rounds, but are either not overly effective or wouldn’t see much of a role increase.

If you owned Blount in 2011, you know exactly why he’s not a safe play if Martin goes down. Mossis Madu and especially rookie Michael Smith would put serious pressure on Blount for reps, but he’d figure to hang onto early-down and short-yardage touches. Ingram isn’t safe because Chris Ivory (or Tarvaris Cadet) would form a backfield trio with Darren Sproles and Thomas, who wouldn’t see much of a spike in touches. Green-Ellis would turn his touches over to the underwhelming duo of Scott and Brian Leonard.

Group 2 - Clear handcuffs, but a bit expensive

Small Blow

Adrian Peterson – Toby Gerhart (ADP: 112.8)
Beanie Wells – Ryan Williams (ADP: 108.6)

Gerhart was going much higher in drafts earlier on in the summer, but Peterson’s quick recovery from ACL surgery has him available in the 10th round. That’s not bad at all when you consider that he’d see a good 17-to-20 touches if Peterson were out of action. Williams’ ADP is on the rise, but he’s not a bad value in the ninth or 10th round. If Wells is out, the impressive Williams would have only LaRod Stephens-Howling pressuring him for reps.

Moderate Blow

Jonathan Stewart – DeAngelo Williams (ADP: 95.0)
Matt Forte – Michael Bush (ADP: 100.0)
Ahmad Bradshaw – David Wilson (ADP: 106.8)

In the event that Stewart would miss extensive action, handcuffing him with Williams would get you a strong RB2 option. Of course, to do so you’d need to surrender an eighth-round pick. Additionally, Williams would share touches, especially on passing downs and inside the five, with Mike Tolbert.

Bush is going in the ninth round, which takes a bit of value away from Forte. Like with Williams, though, Bush would make for a borderline RB1 most weeks. Bradshaw is an interesting one. Wilson is a relatively clear handcuff, but he’d share a chunk of the touches with D.J. Ware. Additionally, his ADP is on the rise recently, which hurts Bradshaw’s value even more.

Big Blow

Arian Foster – Ben Tate (ADP: 95.4)
Fred Jackson – C.J. Spiller (ADP: 84.5)
Jamaal Charles – Peyton Hillis (ADP: 79.7)
Maurice Jones-Drew – Rashad Jennings (ADP: 118.5)

The top pick in most fantasy drafts this year, Foster is also dealing with one of the most expensive handcuffs on the market. Tate is a fantasy stud when Foster is out of action, but will cost you an eighth-round pick. If you invested in Foster, you can’t afford not to reach on Tate. Jackson will lead the committee in Buffalo, but Spiller would see a massive uptick in touches if he were to miss time. Of course, to get Spiller, you might need to dump a seventh-round pick.

Many feel that Hillis could end up leading the Kansas City backfield in carries, so owners are grabbing him in the sixth round. That’s a hefty price to pay for Charles owners. Jennings’ ADP of 118.5 doesn’t seem too intimidating, but with news that Jones-Drew’s holdout could extend into the season, that ADP is quickly on the rise. Handcuffing MJD won’t be easy from here on out.

Murky waters

Ray Rice – Bernard Pierce (ADP: N/A)
Trent Richardson – Montario Hardesty (ADP: 160.2)
Willis McGahee – Ronnie Hillman (ADP: 132.1)
Kevin Smith – Mikel Leshoure (ADP: 121.7)
Cedric Benson – Alex Green (ADP: 154.0)
Donald Brown – Vick Ballard (ADP: N/A)
Shonn Greene – Bilal Powell (ADP: N/A)
Darren McFadden – Mike Goodson (ADP: 163.1)
Rashard Mendenhall – Isaac Redman (ADP: 78.8)
Ryan Mathews – Ronnie Brown (ADP: 153.7)
Evan Royster – Alfred Morris (ADP: N/A)

These “starters” are all in scary situations when it comes to finding a handcuff. These backs will generally lose the most value simply because you won’t have a competent replacement for them if they miss extensive action.

Pierce is the best bet for Rice owners, but Bobby Rainey would help out as well. The good news is that Pierce is going undrafted, so you can throw a dart there. Hardesty would form a committee with Brandon Jackson if Richardson misses time. Hillman is stuck in a rotation with Knowshon Moreno and Lance Ball behind McGahee, but provides the most upside of the group. Leshoure may have to eventually deal with Jahvid Best, is suspended two games, and will cost you an 11th-round pick.

If Benson goes down, Green will team up with Brandon Saine, John Kuhn, and potentially James Starks. Ballard is a still a bit unproven and would share the backfield with Delone Carter and Mewelde Moore. Powell would see an uptick in carries and retain passing-down duties, but Joe McKnight would see a good chunk of the snaps. Goodson and Taiwan Jones continue to compete for reps behind McFadden.

Redman is the early-season replacement for Mendenhall, but Jonathan Dwyer has put on a ton of heat. Additionally, Chris Rainey is helping out on passing downs. We may see how the situation in San Diego shakes out in Week 1, if Mathews can’t suit up. Brown figures to lead the way, but Curtis Brinkley, Jackie Battle, and Le’Ron McClain will all be involved. The situation in Washington, as usual, is a mess. Royster and Morris are the healthiest of the group and are expected to handle the early-season reps. It won’t be long before Roy Helu and Tim Hightower are in the mix, however.

HacheMan · Aug 29, 2012

The "Injury Prone" Conundrum This is a guest post from Frank DuPont, author of "Game Plan: A Radical Approach to Decision Making in the NFL". You can also follow Frank on Twitter.

It's not a stretch to say that 95% of fantasy football talk takes the form of "Player X is risky" or "Player Y is safe." But the problem with the talk of safety and risk is that our brains aren't very good at doing things like assessing safety and risk. We're susceptible to something called recency bias (also known as the availability heuristic). It's fairly easy to illustrate recency bias with examples from fantasy football.

Prior to the 2011 season the most common analysis of Detroit Lions quarterback Matt Stafford focused on his injury proneness. Stafford had missed 18 of his first 32 NFL games due to injuries. The quarterback was then drafted in the 9th round of fantasy drafts last year due to the fear that it wasn't possible for him to stay healthy. But after one season of health Stafford is now going in the 2nd round of drafts. The talk of injury proneness is gone. A reasonable question to ask is which of the following is most likely to be correct as to Stafford's injury proneness?

Stafford has been cured of his injury proneness.
Stafford is still injury prone but just happened to string together a season of consecutive starts without becoming injured.
Our collective perception of Stafford as injury prone was simply wrong to begin with.

It doesn't matter which is correct because they're all problematic for the discussion of injury proneness. Both the second and third possibilities are essentially acknowledgments that we don't have the ability to perceive injury proneness in a way that will be helpful in forecasting the future. The first possibility, that injury proneness could be cured, is essentially an acknowledgment that it doesn't even exist because if injury proneness is anything, it is a difference in physiology.

The psychologist Daniel Kahneman has an idea which he calls "What you see is all there is" (or WYSIATI). Kahneman has shown that humans often make errors in judgments because we only consider the information that we've personally observed. But often the evidence that we've observed isn't all the evidence that there is. Kahneman's concept of WYSIATI is thick in discussions of injury proneness. One of the most common things that happens in discussions of injury proneness is that only a player's NFL injuries are taken into account. Fantasy football owners who don't follow college football haven't seen the player's college injuries and thus the player's college injuries may as well not exist. During Adrian Peterson's career at Oklahoma he missed time in four games due to a high ankle sprain. Peterson also missed seven games with a broken collarbone. Peterson's college injuries aren't much different than San Diego Chargers running back Ryan Mathews' injuries. But Mathews has been painted as injury prone while Peterson has avoided that label. So was Peterson injury prone in college, then cured of his injury proneness in the NFL, and then became afflicted again last year when he tore his ACL? If Peterson's history of injuries in college didn't dictate his injuries during his next 4 NFL seasons, why would we think that Mathews' past injuries would tell us anything about his future tendency to become injured?

Let me throw out a hypothetical situation now so that I can open up your mind to the idea that our perception of injury proneness might simply be our minds trying to see a pattern where none exists (or at least where the real pattern is too complicated to be perceived).

Let's pretend that I am going to take 32 running backs in the NFL and simply assign injuries at random. I'm going to do it in a lottery process. I'm actually going to do it with a little help from Excel's random number generator. So I'm basically going to just draw a number out of a hat and that number will be between 1 and 32. Then I'm going to put the number back into the hat, shake it up, then draw again. Each time I draw a number it will be like I'm assigning an injury to a running back. Here are the results of this random number game drawing the numbers between 1 and 32 (you can actually replicate this experiment using the RANDBETWEEN() function in Excel if you're into that sort of thing).

<table class="tableizer-table"><tbody><tr class="tableizer-firstrow"><th>Number</th><th>Times Drawn Out of Hat</th><th>Number</th><th>Times Drawn Out of Hat</th></tr><tr><td>#1</td><td>2</td><td>#17</td><td>1</td></tr><tr><td>#2</td><td>0</td><td>#18</td><td>0</td></tr><tr><td>#3</td><td>0</td><td>#19</td><td>1</td></tr><tr><td>#4</td><td>2</td><td>#20</td><td>0</td></tr><tr><td>#5</td><td>3</td><td>#21</td><td>0</td></tr><tr><td>#6</td><td>3</td><td>#22</td><td>0</td></tr><tr><td>#7</td><td>3</td><td>#23</td><td>0</td></tr><tr><td>#8</td><td>2</td><td>#24</td><td>1</td></tr><tr><td>#9</td><td>0</td><td>#25</td><td>1</td></tr><tr><td>#10</td><td>1</td><td>#26</td><td>0</td></tr><tr><td>#11</td><td>1</td><td>#27</td><td>0</td></tr><tr><td>#12</td><td>1</td><td>#28</td><td>1</td></tr><tr><td>#13</td><td>2</td><td>#29</td><td>1</td></tr><tr><td>#14</td><td>0</td><td>#30</td><td>0</td></tr><tr><td>#15</td><td>1</td><td>#31</td><td>3</td></tr><tr><td>#16</td><td>1</td><td>#32</td><td>1</td></tr></tbody></table>
This is based on 32 drawings and you can see that each number was not drawn the same number of times. Numbers 5-7 were all drawn 3 times. Several numbers weren't drawn at all. Now imagine that instead of random numbers that came out of Excel, we were talking about injuries. Numbers 5-7 would be considered injury prone, while #26 and #27 would be said to have a talent for staying on the field. The key is that this is a random process and yet it's given us results that don't look random. These results would be easy to look at and think that they mean something even though we know that they don't mean anything.

To be clear, I'm sure that humans differ in important ways when it comes to the probability of injuries occurring. I'm sure that they differ in how much stress their body parts are able to endure. I'm sure they differ in recovery times. I'm sure they differ in their ability to move in a way that avoids injury. But the problem is that we know that a good amount of injuries are random. We also know that they are low frequency events. So can our human brains be relied upon to understand the effect of partially random, low frequency events when we know how prone we are to recency bias?

The problem is this: If a player has had a lot of recent injuries then our expectation is that they will have a lot more. If a player hasn't had many recent injuries then our expectation is that they will remain healthy. That's as complicated as our thinking process gets and I don't think it's particularly enlightened or anything that we should be putting a lot of stock in.

HacheMan · Aug 30, 2012

My 'Do Not Draft' list

Eric Karabell

Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers is an absolute fantasy monster, an annual top performer in a safe offense that has yet to fail in producing among the best statistics in the game. Not only is he fantasy's top quarterback, the case can be made -- and I won't really argue it -- that he's the No. 1 pick off the board. Oh, one more thing: I've never drafted the guy in a league.

It's not that I refuse to change with the times, but I'm still a believer in the sanctity of early-round running backs and wide receivers to construct the puzzle that is a potent fantasy lineup, even as the former position is about as weak and ugly as ever, and the latter boasts pristine depth. I've had the first, second, fourth, eighth and 10th picks in drafts this summer, both real and mock, and I haven't chosen a quarterback in the first or second round yet. Again, nothing against Rodgers or stalwart statistical providers in awesomeness Tom Brady and Drew Brees, but I crave the players who start at running back and wide receiver early in the draft, so LeGarrette Blount doesn't end up my top flex option. There's quarterback depth and I can wait for it.

So here's my 2012 version of the "Do not draft" list, which is a bit of a misnomer. It's hardly a list of players that you shouldn't draft, because even I would at some point. It's your team and you should go with the philosophy that works for you, but it's a list of players I just haven't been drafting, mostly due to a different opinion on strategy or value. Would I take Aaron Rodgers in Round 3? Of course. It's ridiculous value. I'd draft all the players below at some point, just not where they typically are chosen, so as a result they've become highlight options on my "avoid" list. Please understand the reasoning and distinction.

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Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady, Drew Brees, Matthew Stafford, Cam Newton: Well, let's just lump the top five passers all together. In truth, the only one of this group I see taking a step back statistically is Newton. Yep, he's a stud, but 14 rushing touchdowns is a crazy number. Try seven this year. Mike Tolbert hurts his value more than he does that of Jonathan Stewart or DeAngelo Williams. I haven't taken a quarterback in the first five rounds of any drafts this season.

Michael Vick, QB, Philadelphia Eagles: What, do we need to be hit over the head over and over on this guy? Or hit in the ribs, as it were? He's not playing 16 games. I'm hoping he plays in 12, but even then, if I knew I was getting his 2010 production, I'd get him and a strong backup. I acknowledge the upside to be a top-three QB option, but I rank him 10th at the position. Matt Ryan and Philip Rivers will play every single week. They'll be productive, too. Honestly, I expect Eagles rookie/backup QB Nick Foles to be a popular subject all season long.

Trent Richardson, RB, Cleveland Browns: The negatives seem to be piling up here, with injury status, the mess of an offense around him and most notably the team schedule, with a quarter of the games against the Steelers/Ravens, all from Week 13 on. I rank Richardson 19th at running back, meaning he's extremely unlikely to fall to me in a draft. Yes, I'll take geriatric Michael Turner over him, easily. It doesn't mean I choose all old players over young; not at all. I've been acquiring a number of younger running backs later in drafts, like Ryan Williams and Mikel Leshoure, for example. But we know that early in drafts rookies are far too loved.

Adrian Peterson, RB, Minnesota Vikings: Well, I thought I liked him, but compared to others choosing him in the second round of some drafts, I guess I don't. I see a shared September and a 1,000-yard campaign, but I still trust Ryan Mathews more.

DeAngelo Williams, RB, Carolina Panthers: The more things change, the more they stay the same. Way too crowded there for him to be a top-20 running back. As of now I'm still selecting Jonathan Stewart, if I select him at all, a round earlier.

Roy Helu, RB, Washington Redskins: He's been going too early in drafts for months considering the fact that coach Mike Shanahan is constantly changing his mind. I actually like the other Redskins running backs as sleepers, but I think the competition here will be a constant pain all year. Will any Redskin rush for 800 yards? I doubt it. I'd take Helu after 30 or so other running backs, including Cedric Benson. That says a lot.

Andre Johnson, WR, Houston Texans: This position is incredibly deep, so one could argue that my point about avoiding wide receiver risk early is foolish. Well, I aim to avoid early risk no matter what. Johnson is incredibly talented, but has become brittle. He's not 24 years old anymore. And he's hurt now again, too. I rank him too well, frankly. When given chances in the second round to select him, I have instead gone with running backs who scare me like DeMarco Murray or wide receivers with some risk, like Mike Wallace.

Dez Bryant and Miles Austin, WR, Dallas Cowboys: I have a policy about diva wide receivers who need a full security detail to keep them outta trouble and making it to games on time. I avoid them in the top 50. And Austin just can't stay healthy.

Brandon Lloyd, WR, New England Patriots: I know all the reasons a monster year could happen. Brady's awesome. Lloyd himself is awesome; he was, after all, fantasy's top wide receiver in 2010. This situation is different. Wes Welker and a pair of incredibly gifted tight ends are vying for Brady's love, and they'll get it. And there will be a running game. Unless there's a sudden injury to Welker or Rob Gronkowski, I don't see enough targets for Lloyd to be a top-20 wide receiver.

Rob Gronkowski and Jimmy Graham, extraordinary tight ends: Sorry, these guys aren't second-rounders to me, especially not with the depth at tight end. Yes, tight ends now fit nicely into the flex spot in ESPN standard formats, but I'll wait another six rounds for the likes of Tony Gonzalez and Fred Davis, or longer for Brandon Pettigrew and the wildly underrated (this was obviously going to happen) Jason Witten. I'm pretty much ignoring the entire list of tight ends in the first seven rounds, including Antonio Gates and Vernon Davis.

Any defense before Round 12: I don't understand why even the top defenses are going in the eighth or ninth round, but I've never done it. Every year the top fantasy defenses change. Give me my fifth or sixth running back first.

Just so we can finish on a positive note, here are players who do not scare me nearly as much as they do others: Chris Johnson, Larry Fitzgerald, Roddy White, Steven Jackson, Ryan Mathews, Mike Wallace, Victor Cruz, Michael Turner, Reggie Bush, Philip Rivers and Josh Freeman. Doesn't mean I'd take Rivers over Brady, for example, just to be clear. It's always about value.

HacheMan · Aug 30, 2012

Underrated PPR receivers

Michael Crabtree among fantasy PPR receivers being drafted too low

By KC Joyner | ESPN Insider

sleepers

Football coaches often view the passing game as the great equalizer. Teams that might not win the talent battle but are adept at aerial attacks often can overcome physical deficiencies to post victories.

The world of fantasy football has a similar element in PPR (points per reception) leagues. Teams that might otherwise have depth issues during the season because of a variety of circumstances can conquer that deficit by stocking up on relatively high-volume wideouts.

Even with that clear benefit, there are at least five wide receivers whose situations indicate they have a lot of PPR value but who are not being selected for fantasy rosters nearly as often as they should be.

Michael Crabtree, San Francisco 49ers
Average draft position (ADP): 107.1

Whenever someone would question former Raiders owner Al Davis about acquiring a former first-round draft pick whom other people had given up on, he often would respond by reminding the questioner that first-round grades aren't given out lightly and that the player had once qualified for one of those.

That train of thought also should apply to those who aren't sold on Crabtree's fantasy prospects this season.
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Crabtree posted 112 targets last season despite being slowed by injuries and has racked up double-digit points in a PPR environment in 10 of his past 13 starts. The Niners won't move to become a pass-first offense under coach Jim Harbaugh, but they almost will certainly throw the ball more often this season than they did last season, so Crabtree has the upside of seeing somewhere in the neighborhood of 120-130 targets. Not bad for someone who can be acquired in the 10th round.

Nate Washington, Tennessee Titans
ADP: 114.1

Last season, Washington was the most targeted wide receiver on the Titans' roster. His 116 targets were more than the totals posted by Anquan Boldin (111), Mike Wallace (109), Marques Colston (106), Vincent Jackson (105) or Greg Jennings (103). That volume led to seven games with nine or more fantasy points in standard leagues and seven games with 16 or more fantasy points in PPR environments. With Kenny Britt battling injuries and a possible suspension and the Titans' switch to a more pass-heavy offense, Washington should be a good candidate to repeat those totals.

Brandon LaFell, Carolina Panthers
ADP: 145.1

LaFell made my recent list of undervalued wide receivers in large part because of his superb performance on vertical passes.

He also gets a spot on this list because of a simple matter of pass division. Greg Olsen, Jeremy Shockey and Legedu Naanee combined for a total of 228 targets last year, and Olsen (90 targets) is the only one of those three to return to the Panthers' roster this year.

That leaves 138 targets to be divided among other players. Since Steve Smith is already at or near his peak target level and the other Carolina wideouts/tight ends don't look to be as ready to take a step forward as LaFell does, it stands to reason that LaFell will get a significant number of those targets added to the 54 targets he had last season.

Put that increase in volume with LaFell's proven capability to produce on downfield throws, and it makes him a fantastic value for a 14th-round pick.

Leonard Hankerson, Washington Redskins
ADP: 151.5

Hankerson is a starting wide receiver on a ballclub that will be driven to prove it made the right move in drafting Robert Griffin III with the second overall pick in this year's draft.

Those elements alone would ensure a solid target volume for Hankerson, but it should also be pointed out that back when he was playing for the Miami Hurricanes in 2010, Hankerson posted metrics that were as good as, or in some cases better than, the number Julio Jones notched in that same campaign. He shouldn't be expected to post fantasy totals close to Jones, but if he gets 80-100 targets in this offense (a likely scenario as long as he stays healthy), he'll be a valuable PPR reserve player.

Danny Amendola, St. Louis Rams
ADP: 142.8

Amendola proved to be one of the most consistent PPR targets in fantasy football in 2010 by posting 10 or more fantasy points in 10 games that season and did so despite averaging an abysmal 8.1 yards per reception. He might not be the type of player who wins games by racking up dominant numbers, but he is the type of player who won't lose games by posting a goose egg in the event an owner has to put him in the lineup. That type of insurance policy makes Amendola more than worth a bench roster spot.

Jerome Simpson, Minnesota Vikings
ADP: 170.0

There was a time when Simpson was largely known for his incredible acrobatic leap for a touchdown. Now it seems that fantasy owners can only think of him in terms of his three-game suspension to start the 2012 season.

Rather than viewing him through that prism, Simpson should be seen as someone who will immediately join the Vikings' starting lineup in Week 4 in an offense where Adrian Peterson and Percy Harvin will draw the lion's share of defensive attention. If Simpson can come close to his 6.1 targets per game volume from last season, it would equal 79 targets, or enough to warrant a late-round draft selection.
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HacheMan · Aug 30, 2012

Is LeGarrette Blount undervalued?

By AJ Mass | ESPN.com

How will the Buccaneers' backfield play out between Doug Martin and LeGarrette Blount?

This question has become a lot tougher to answer during the past month.

Back when training camps got underway and I was told I'd be writing up this battle, I was sure that I knew how the Tampa Bay running back situation would play out: All LeGarrette Blount had to do in order to be named the No. 1 back was not put the ball on the ground as he did five times in the second half of the 2011 season.

While Doug Martin was very likely to impress in games that didn't count, the logical plan would be for the rookie to be slowly weaved into the Bucs' offense as a change-of-pace back on third downs. Since Blount has only 20 catches in his two professional seasons and Martin comes from Boise State fully armed with skills in both pass catching and pass protection, the roles seemed to write themselves.

Even though there's a new coaching staff in town, led by Greg Schiano, I expected this backfield to look a lot like it did back in 2010, when Blount and Cadillac Williams worked in tandem. That season, Blount rushed 201 times for 1,007 yards, while Williams had 125 carries for 437 yards to go along with 46 catches for another 355 yards. That was close to a 2-to-1 split in carries with the yardage totals coming relatively close to the team having a pair of 1,000-yard producers from scrimmage.

Unfortunately for Blount, he got banged up in camp. Due to an injured thigh, he ended up on the short end of the 2-to-1 split in the game against New England. Martin excelled, rushing for 53 yards and a score while catching three passes, and suddenly he was being hailed as the next Ray Rice. Schiano, who coached Rice at Rutgers, made that comparison himself and elevated the rookie to the No. 1 spot on the team's depth chart. Call me crazy, but Blount didn't get outplayed, he didn't play. So, I don't believe Martin has beaten him out for the job, because the competition hasn't truly come to an end.

For one thing, Schiano told the Tampa Bay Times that this competition was not yet over. Blount still has every opportunity to go out there against Carolina in Week 1 and muddy the running back waters all over again. After all, there's no reason to think Martin will get 25 carries, so Blount will get a chance to impress against a Panthers defense that was the second most generous in all of football to opposing running backs last season with an average of 23.1 fantasy points allowed to that position per game.

Fantasy drafts held in the interim certainly took note of the change in the depth chart, though. Martin now has an ADP of 67.5 in ESPN live drafts, a 15.1 spot increase over the past seven days. Blount's value has dropped 3.4 spots since last week, to an ADP of 128.5. While I don't discount the buzz surrounding Martin, I do think that drafters are selling Blount short.

This offense will likely end up being somewhere in the neighborhood of a 60/40 time-share. While Martin is the logical choice to be given the bigger piece of the pie and is certainly worthy of a sixth-round selection in ESPN standard leagues, Blount should not be left on the scrap heap to rust alongside the rest of the droids that we are not looking for.

I'd happily grab Blount in the ninth or 10th round, but probably don't even have to do so in order to get him. He's going to be languishing on the board two or three rounds later than that in most leagues.

Given the very legitimate possibility that he returns to the 200-carry mark, at worst I'd expect him to finish with 800 yards on the season with 5-7 touchdowns -- which is exactly what he did last year when all eyes were on him. Throw in Martin for a one-two punch and you could well have a pair of 1,000-yard contributors in Tampa Bay yet again if Blount has a few pinball machine-type breakaways.

Sure, Martin is the sexier pick, and of the two backs, he's the more likely to finish in the top 20 at running back at season's end. But at what cost? He's still just a rookie and I'm just not sure why we're drafting him as if he's going to get 80-90 percent of the touches. For me, the bigger value is clearly Blount, who could still end up getting the bulk of carries on first and second down when all is said and done, regardless of whose name sits on top of a list that can change on the coach's merest whim.

And if I'm wrong? Well, what's a failed 11th-round draft pick really going to cost you?

HacheMan · Aug 30, 2012

One Man's Drafts With the eye of the drafting storm settling over the fantasy football world this weekend, I decided to whip up a quick primer on the players I’ve been typically coming away with in my leagues. This isn’t intended to shape your strategy, but simply offer up a little perspective on how one player — participating in a near 50/50 mix of “friends” and “experts” endeavors — is approaching his teams.

QB Matthew Stafford
Notes: For better or worse — for Stafford’s shoulder or Calvin Johnson’s “Madden” curse — the No. 1 pick of the 2009 draft is the one player I feel like I have to own in every league. My favorite fantasy target at any position, I expect Stafford might “regress” by the textbook definition of regression, but he’s locked and loaded as a top-five, and likely top-three, quarterback.

RB1 Darren McFadden (Occasionally Ryan Mathews)
Notes: Whenever I’ve had a mid first-round pick this summer, it’s pretty much come down to DMC’s injury proneness vs. Chris Johnson’s disappearing proneness. I’ve gone with McFadden’s talent and upside over CJwhateverK’s headache and bafflement every time. ... I still love Mathews, and he’s usually been my target if I’m picking around No. 10 or 11.

RB2 Doug Martin/Jonathan Stewart
Notes: Martin’s price has obviously skyrocketed, so I’ve usually missed out in “experts” leagues. That’s why I’ve been going “experimental” with J-Stew and handcuffing him with workhorses BenJarvus Green-Ellis and Cedric Benson. J-Stew’s a far from ideal RB2, but at a position where chaos is not a theory, I don’t mind a strong (recently re-upped) runner with excellent passing-game skills who’s playing with Cam Newton.

BENCH RBs: BenJarvus Green-Ellis, Cedric Benson, C.J. Spiller/David Wilson
Notes: BJGE’s been getting dinged all summer, but Bernard Scott has literally been dinged all summer. I know BJGE has never gotten the most out of his carries, and actually played hurt for a large chunk of 2011, but you just can’t downplay the importance of backs with locked-in workloads. Everyone here should know the running back scene looks like the beaches of Normandy by Week 6. … Which is, of course, also my thinking behind CedBen. That, and the fact that he has essentially no competition for carries (not worried about Alex Green at this point in time, but I’ll be keeping an eagle eye on the wire), and will be afforded soft fronts by the respect/abject fear the Packers’ passing game commands. I’m sensing a monster year from our favorite plodder....say, 4.1 yards per carry! … Third bench back has come down to Spiller or Wilson every time. Spiller was the real deal at the end of 2011, and color me skeptical that a 31-year-old Fred Jackson can post back-to-back renaissance seasons, especially coming off a broken leg. Defenses are also going to be increasingly playing up tight on Buffalo’s slowly unraveling passing attack. Spiller’s explosiveness could end up being the bedrock of the offense.

WR1 Dez Bryant
Notes: I might as well have selected “Going to the Dentist” since Dez is such a pain in the posterior, but his upside is just too enormous. In a league with Julio Jones, Larry Fitzgerald and Calvin Johnson, he might have the most raw physical skill of anybody. For the second straight year, I’m guessing this is the year.

WR2 Brandon Lloyd
Notes: I’m no longer infatuated with Lloyd the way I was before camp began and he got more expensive than a Mountain Dew in an L.A. Walgreens, but I’ll still take him in a heartbeat as my WR2. That’s despite the fact that I’m worried he’ll settle into the fourth rung of Tom Brady’s target totem pole relatively quickly.

WR3 Torrey Smith
Notes: After Stafford, there’s no player I want more this year. Coming off an underratedly stellar rookie season, we already know Smith might be the fastest player in the league. But a lot of people don’t seem to realize he might also be one of the smartest, as well. An improved route runner by nearly every indication (as in, he now has routes), Smith is going to be the No. 1 option in an offense that finally appears committed to throwing like it’s the 21st Century. Could flirt with WR1 numbers.

BENCH WRs: Titus Young, Brandon LaFell
Notes: Not enamored with LaFell, though I am enamored with Titus. Chunks of yards. He’ll rack ‘em up as defenses get out the riot gear to stop Mega (and still fail, obviously). Young’s a game-breaker in perhaps the league’s most pass-happy offense. Those are the kinds of players you want on your bench.

TE1 Greg Olsen
Notes: Have never intended for Olsen to be my true TE1. My plan all along was to pair two upside plays late in drafts, but the longer the summer has gone on, I’m beginning to think that might not be necessary. When your coach not once but twice compares you to Rob Gronkowski and Jimmy Graham, I first think it’s insane, but then I realize it means Olsen’s role is going to be greatly increased in an offense that still has disappointingly few options in the passing game.

TE2 Martellus Bennett
Notes: The Giants always feature their tight ends more than people realize, and Bennett is the most gifted one they’ve had since Jeremy Shockey. He legitimately physically resembled Jason Pierre-Paul during the preseason. Could very easily morph into a low-end TE1.

K Jason Hanson or Matt Bryant
Notes: Stream, stream, stream, though if I have to draft a kicker, I prefer one that kicks indoors for a high-scoring offense.

TEAM DEFENSE Seattle.
Notes: I fully intend to stream here, as well, though I’m also targeting New England, Denver and occasionally Detroit in fantasy drafts. In general, I’m going AFC defenses this season. The NFC is a snakepit of a conference, while the AFC is as weak as it’s been in some time.

HacheMan · Aug 31, 2012

2012 Fantasy Football Mock Draft 7

12-team league with standard scoring

By Brian Gramling | Special to ESPN.com

Let's face it. Fantasy football is a lot harder to win than it used to be. It's much rarer these days to find that owner who shows up to the draft table with a year-old cheat sheet, mispronounces his quarterback as "Brent Far," selects a kicker in the seventh round and winds up trading you Tom Brady for Beanie Wells. With so much information packed into the ESPN Draft Kit, it's pretty simple to draft a competitive team by just following your appropriate cheat sheet.

So how do you get that edge? For me, it's the experience of mock drafting. Although I have been playing fantasy football since the early 1990s, when I compiled my neighborhood league's touchdown-only fantasy league results during ESPN's "NFL Primetime," I never stop learning new tricks. This is especially true when I'm asked to join our merry mocking band of ESPN.com experts -- Eric Karabell, Christopher Harris, Tristan H. Cockcroft, KC Joyner, AJ Mass, Jim McCormick, Shawn Cwalinski, Keith Lipscomb, James Quintong, Brendan Roberts and Dave Hunter -- who were kind enough to dispense their own valuable fantasy advice at the bottom of this column, covering a wide range of topics.

Before we get to the final 12-team experts mock draft, conducted Aug. 29 with standard scoring, the analysts answered what I felt were the most prevalent questions surrounding draft day:

Our Analysts Say ...

<table><thead><tr><th></th><th> No. 1 pick </th><th> MJD round </th><th> No. 4 RB </th><th> No. 3 WR </th><th> Best depth </th><th> Deep sleeper </th><th> Must avoid </th></tr><tbody><tr class="last"><td> Karabell </td><td> Foster </td><td> 2nd </td><td> Johnson </td><td> Jennings </td><td> WR </td><td> Alfred Morris </td><td> Mark Sanchez </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> Harris </td><td> Foster </td><td> 1st </td><td> Johnson </td><td> A. Johnson </td><td> WR </td><td> Titus Young </td><td> Michael Turner </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> Cockcroft </td><td> Foster </td><td> Late 2nd </td><td> Johnson </td><td> Jennings </td><td> WR </td><td> Alshon Jeffery </td><td> Michael Turner </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> Joyner </td><td> Rodgers </td><td> 2nd </td><td> Johnson </td><td> White </td><td> QB </td><td> Jared Cook </td><td> Jon Baldwin </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> Mass </td><td> Rice </td><td> 1st </td><td> Johnson </td><td> Welker </td><td> WR </td><td> Alshon Jeffery </td><td> All Cowboys </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> McCormick </td><td> Foster </td><td> 2nd </td><td> McFadden </td><td> Welker </td><td> WR </td><td> Leonard Hankerson </td><td> Kenny Britt </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> Cwalinski </td><td> Rice </td><td> Late 2nd </td><td> Johnson </td><td> A.J. Green </td><td> WR </td><td> Ronnie Hillman </td><td> Andre Johnson </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> Lipscomb </td><td> Rice </td><td> Late 1st </td><td> Johnson </td><td> Jennings </td><td> TE </td><td> Robert Turbin </td><td> Marshawn Lynch </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> Hunter </td><td> Rodgers </td><td> 3rd </td><td> Johnson </td><td> White </td><td> WR </td><td> Kyle Rudolph </td><td> Beanie Wells </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> Quintong </td><td> Foster </td><td> 2nd </td><td> Johnson </td><td> A. Johnson </td><td> WR </td><td> Isaiah Pead </td><td> DeSean Jackson </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> Roberts </td><td> Foster </td><td> 3rd </td><td> Johnson </td><td> A. Johnson </td><td> WR </td><td> Isaiah Pead </td><td> Miles Austin </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> Gramling </td><td> Foster </td><td> 3rd </td><td> Johnson </td><td> White </td><td> TE </td><td> Justin Blackmon </td><td> Beanie Wells </td></tr></tbody></table>

Here is how the draft unfolded. (Click here for rosters by team.)

ROUND 1

<table><thead><tr><th> Pick </th><th> Overall </th><th> By </th><th> Player </th><th> Pos Rank </th></tr><tbody><tr class="last"><td> 1 </td><td> 1 </td><td> Joyner </td><td>Aaron Rodgers, GB </td><td> QB1 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 2 </td><td> 2 </td><td> Hunter </td><td>Arian Foster, Hou </td><td> RB1 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 3 </td><td> 3 </td><td> Cwalinski </td><td>Ray Rice, Bal </td><td> RB2 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 4 </td><td> 4 </td><td> Harris </td><td>LeSean McCoy, Phi </td><td> RB3 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 5 </td><td> 5 </td><td> McCormick </td><td>Tom Brady, NE </td><td> QB2 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 6 </td><td> 6 </td><td> Quintong </td><td>Calvin Johnson, Det </td><td> WR1 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 7 </td><td> 7 </td><td> Lipscomb </td><td>Chris Johnson, Ten </td><td> RB4 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 8 </td><td> 8 </td><td> Karabell </td><td>Larry Fitzgerald, Ari </td><td> WR2 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 9 </td><td> 9 </td><td> Mass </td><td>Maurice Jones-Drew, Jac </td><td> RB5 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 10 </td><td> 10 </td><td> Roberts </td><td>Drew Brees, NO </td><td> QB3 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 11 </td><td> 11 </td><td> Gramling </td><td>Matthew Stafford, Det </td><td> QB4 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 12 </td><td> 12 </td><td> Cockcroft </td><td>Matt Forte, Chi </td><td> RB6 </td></tr></tbody></table>

Round 1 analysis: Joyner kicked off the draft with Aaron Rodgers, and the next six picks didn't contain any surprises. Karabell's selection of Larry Fitzgerald raised one of my eyebrows, and Mass opened my eyes wide by taking Maurice Jones-Drew at No. 9. Mass doesn't think Jones-Drew will miss more than a couple of games. "I just feel if you have confidence in your ability to draft value later on, you can afford the one- or two-week hit," Mass said. "Just don't take Ryan Mathews in Round 2."

I hoped Drew Brees would drop to me, but Matthew Stafford was a fine consolation prize. In a 12-team league, I really wanted one of the four stud quarterbacks, and Stafford, coming off a 5,038-yard, 41-touchdown season and scheduled to play just one freezing-cold game all year, will be just fine.

ROUND 2

<table><thead><tr><th> Pick </th><th> Overall </th><th> By </th><th> Player </th><th> Pos Rank </th></tr><tbody><tr class="last"><td> 1 </td><td> 13 </td><td> Cockcroft </td><td>Rob Gronkowski, NE </td><td> TE1 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 2 </td><td> 14 </td><td> Gramling </td><td>Marshawn Lynch, Sea </td><td> RB7 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 3 </td><td> 15 </td><td> Roberts </td><td>Andre Johnson, Hou </td><td> WR3 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 4 </td><td> 16 </td><td> Mass </td><td>Jamaal Charles, KC </td><td> RB8 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 5 </td><td> 17 </td><td> Karabell </td><td>DeMarco Murray, Dal </td><td> RB9 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 6 </td><td> 18 </td><td> Lipscomb </td><td>Darren McFadden, Oak </td><td> RB10 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 7 </td><td> 19 </td><td> Quintong </td><td>Adrian Peterson, Min </td><td> RB11 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 8 </td><td> 20 </td><td> McCormick </td><td>Jimmy Graham, NO </td><td> TE2 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 9 </td><td> 21 </td><td> Harris </td><td>Greg Jennings, GB </td><td> WR4 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 10 </td><td> 22 </td><td> Cwalinski </td><td>Cam Newton, Car </td><td> QB5 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 11 </td><td> 23 </td><td> Hunter </td><td>Roddy White, Atl </td><td> WR5 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 12 </td><td> 24 </td><td> Joyner </td><td>Ryan Mathews*, SD </td><td> RB12 </td></tr></tbody></table>

Round 2 analysis: Cockcroft took the two guys I wanted, Matt Forte and Rob Gronkowski, so I felt I needed a running back or would be stuck with a Stevan Ridley type as my RB1 at the end of Round 3. Marshawn Lynch was the best running back on the board, so I took him with the hopes that his back spasms will subside and that a suspension will not be forthcoming.

The inevitable four-RB run started at No. 16, capped off by Quintong grabbing Adrian Peterson at No. 19. "I'll gamble a bit on Peterson's health at this point," Quintong said. "And I think I've got a nice start with Calvin Johnson, so I didn't necessarily feel like I wanted another WR, or Jimmy Graham or Cam Newton."

The two other players I considered at No. 14 -- Graham and Roddy White -- went 20th and 23rd, respectively. Hunter was delighted to grab White that low, noting that he is underrated almost every year.

ROUND 3

<table><thead><tr><th> Pick </th><th> Overall </th><th> By </th><th> Player </th><th> Pos Rank </th></tr><tbody><tr class="last"><td> 1 </td><td> 25 </td><td> Joyner </td><td>Julio Jones, Atl </td><td> WR6 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 2 </td><td> 26 </td><td> Hunter </td><td>Steven Jackson, StL </td><td> RB13 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 3 </td><td> 27 </td><td> Cwalinski </td><td>Fred Jackson, Buf </td><td> RB14 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 4 </td><td> 28 </td><td> Harris </td><td>Trent Richardson, Cle </td><td> RB15 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 5 </td><td> 29 </td><td> McCormick </td><td>Wes Welker, NE </td><td> WR7 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 6 </td><td> 30 </td><td> Quintong </td><td>Michael Turner, Atl </td><td> RB16 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 7 </td><td> 31 </td><td> Lipscomb </td><td>Mike Wallace, Pit </td><td> WR8 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 8 </td><td> 32 </td><td> Karabell </td><td>Frank Gore, SF </td><td> RB17 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 9 </td><td> 33 </td><td> Mass </td><td>A.J. Green, Cin </td><td> WR9 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 10 </td><td> 34 </td><td> Roberts </td><td>Ahmad Bradshaw, NYG </td><td> RB18 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 11 </td><td> 35 </td><td> Gramling </td><td>Hakeem Nicks, NYG </td><td> WR10 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 12 </td><td> 36 </td><td> Cockcroft </td><td>Victor Cruz, NYG </td><td> WR11 </td></tr></tbody></table>

Round 3 analysis: With the top five signal-callers off the board, nobody took a quarterback in Round 3, which consisted of six running backs and six wide receivers. Joyner was pleased to begin the round with Julio Jones. "Jones rates fourth on my WR charts," Joyner said. "I really like him as a third-round pick."

After a double shot of Jacksons, Harris grabbed the first rookie of the draft, Trent Richardson. I asked Harris whether taking Richardson was a product of the running back position getting low on talent (14 were off the board) or he was simply the best player available in his mind. "Picking Richardson was more about thinning RBs, especially for a 12-team league," Harris said. "Truthfully, I have Frank Gore rated above him, but I haven't taken Richardson at all in mocks and decided I'd try the higher-upside guy this time."

Speaking of high upsides, because of the great wide receiver depth still available, A.J. Green slipped to No. 33 to Mass. Considering Cwalinski rates Green as his No. 3 wideout behind Johnson and Fitzgerald, I wondered why he chose Fred Jackson at No. 27 instead of pouncing on Green, the No. 26 overall player in the latest ESPN.com rankings. "I didn't want to take a WR yet," Cwalinski said. "I am waiting on WR this time to see what my team looks like by doing so. I wanted to do something different in this draft, but I'm regretting it now."

The round ended with a New York Giants run of Ahmad Bradshaw, Hakeem Nicks and Victor Cruz going 34-35-36.

ROUND 4

<table><thead><tr><th> Pick </th><th> Overall </th><th> By </th><th> Player </th><th> Pos Rank </th></tr><tbody><tr class="last"><td> 1 </td><td> 37 </td><td> Cockcroft </td><td>Darren Sproles, NO </td><td> RB19 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 2 </td><td> 38 </td><td> Gramling </td><td>Stevan Ridley, NE </td><td> RB20 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 3 </td><td> 39 </td><td> Roberts </td><td>Willis McGahee, Den </td><td> RB21 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 4 </td><td> 40 </td><td> Mass </td><td>Eli Manning, NYG </td><td> QB6 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 5 </td><td> 41 </td><td> Karabell </td><td>Brandon Marshall, Chi </td><td> WR12 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 6 </td><td> 42 </td><td> Lipscomb </td><td>Jordy Nelson, GB </td><td> WR13 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 7 </td><td> 43 </td><td> Quintong </td><td>Steve Smith, Car </td><td> WR14 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 8 </td><td> 44 </td><td> McCormick </td><td>Percy Harvin, Min </td><td> WR15 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 9 </td><td> 45 </td><td> Harris </td><td>Michael Vick, Phi </td><td> QB7 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 10 </td><td> 46 </td><td> Cwalinski </td><td>Doug Martin, TB </td><td> RB22 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 11 </td><td> 47 </td><td> Hunter </td><td>Antonio Gates, SD </td><td> TE3 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 12 </td><td> 48 </td><td> Joyner </td><td>Reggie Bush, Mia </td><td> RB23 </td></tr></tbody></table>

Round 4 analysis: This round began with three running backs, as Cockcroft and I and Roberts all needed an RB2 and didn't want to see what was left at the end of Round 5. Mass broke a 17-pick quarterback drought with Eli Manning, which was promptly followed by a run of four wide receivers, capped off by Percy Harvin going to McCormick at No. 44. McCormick had second thoughts about his selection when Cwalinski grabbed Doug Martin two picks later. "I regret not going after Martin with my pick, knowing how much C-Dub values him," McCormick said.

In between Harvin and Martin was Harris grabbing Michael Vick. "Vick and Shady McCoy -- dang it, I'm getting those Philly rushing TDs!" Harris said.

Hunter, sensing a good crop of receivers still on the board, took the third tight end of the draft, Antonio Gates, at No. 47 before Joyner closed the round with Reggie Bush.

ROUND 5

<table><thead><tr><th> Pick </th><th> Overall </th><th> By </th><th> Player </th><th> Pos Rank </th></tr><tbody><tr class="last"><td> 1 </td><td> 49 </td><td> Joyner </td><td>Brandon Lloyd, NE </td><td> WR16 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 2 </td><td> 50 </td><td> Hunter </td><td>Jeremy Maclin, Phi </td><td> WR17 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 3 </td><td> 51 </td><td> Cwalinski </td><td>Marques Colston, NO </td><td> WR18 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 4 </td><td> 52 </td><td> Harris </td><td>Dez Bryant, Dal </td><td> WR19 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 5 </td><td> 53 </td><td> McCormick </td><td>Miles Austin, Dal </td><td> WR20 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 6 </td><td> 54 </td><td> Quintong </td><td>Peyton Manning, Den </td><td> QB8 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 7 </td><td> 55 </td><td> Lipscomb </td><td>Peyton Hillis, KC </td><td> RB24 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 8 </td><td> 56 </td><td> Karabell </td><td>Dwayne Bowe, KC </td><td> WR21 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 9 </td><td> 57 </td><td> Mass </td><td>Vincent Jackson, TB </td><td> WR22 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 10 </td><td> 58 </td><td> Roberts </td><td>BenJarvus Green-Ellis, Cin </td><td> RB25 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 11 </td><td> 59 </td><td> Gramling </td><td>Steve Johnson, Buf </td><td> WR23 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 12 </td><td> 60 </td><td> Cockcroft </td><td>Antonio Brown, Pit </td><td> WR24 </td></tr></tbody></table>

Round 5 analysis: The good crop of receivers I mentioned went by rather quickly with a run of five straight wide receivers to start the round. Hunter grabbed Jeremy Maclin at No. 50, while Harris gladly took Dez Bryant at No. 52, touching off a string of quality banter:

Harris: "Maclin over Dez? Really?"
Cwalinski: "Bryant has one 100-yard game in his career."
Joyner: "Yep. I like Maclin's chances to have a breakout year, and I'm concerned about all of Dez's negatives."
Hunter: "Dez worries me more and more as the season gets close to starting. Not denying his talents, but a bit of a fear factor with him. Plus, I think Maclin is in for a very big year."
Mass: "Plus, if you pick Dez, your next three picks have to go to his security detail."
Harris: "C-Dub, best respective seasons: Maclin, 964 yards; Dez, 928 yards. It's hardly a case where one guy has super-outproduced the other."

Quintong ended the wide receiver run with Peyton Manning. "I like Peyton's upside for this year," Quintong said. "He seems to be in good shape during the preseason, and he's got weapons around him. I was hoping to get him at that spot. Of course, I do have a couple of risks in both Peyton and AP." To which Harris quipped, "As for Peyton, Quintong is trying to corner the market on the greatest team 2008 ever saw with AP, Michael Turner, Steve Smith and Peyton."

Four of the five final picks of the fifth round were receivers, bringing the Round 5 wide receiver total to a hefty nine.

ROUND 6

<table><thead><tr><th> Pick </th><th> Overall </th><th> By </th><th> Player </th><th> Pos Rank </th></tr><tbody><tr class="last"><td> 1 </td><td> 61 </td><td> Cockcroft </td><td>Tony Romo, Dal </td><td> QB9 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 2 </td><td> 62 </td><td> Gramling </td><td>Vernon Davis, SF </td><td> TE4 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 3 </td><td> 63 </td><td> Roberts </td><td>Demaryius Thomas, Den </td><td> WR25 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 4 </td><td> 64 </td><td> Mass </td><td>DeAngelo Williams, Car </td><td> RB26 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 5 </td><td> 65 </td><td> Karabell </td><td>Eric Decker, Den </td><td> WR26 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 6 </td><td> 66 </td><td> Lipscomb </td><td>Torrey Smith, Bal </td><td> WR27 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 7 </td><td> 67 </td><td> Quintong </td><td>Shonn Greene, NYJ </td><td> RB27 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 8 </td><td> 68 </td><td> McCormick </td><td>Kevin Smith, Det </td><td> RB28 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 9 </td><td> 69 </td><td> Harris </td><td>Cedric Benson, GB </td><td> RB29 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 10 </td><td> 70 </td><td> Cwalinski </td><td>Pierre Garcon, Wsh </td><td> WR28 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 11 </td><td> 71 </td><td> Hunter </td><td>Ben Tate, Hou </td><td> RB30 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 12 </td><td> 72 </td><td> Joyner </td><td>Jonathan Stewart, Car </td><td> RB31 </td></tr></tbody></table>

Round 6 analysis: Serpent tail Cockcroft began the round with Tony Romo but was more excited about getting Antonio Brown at No. 60. "The thing that has struck me being in that final slot is not simply that the pickings are rough in Rounds 1 and 2. It's that, by the time your fifth-round pick [50th or 60th overall] comes up, there's a precipitous drop in talent," Cockcroft said. "I got Brown here at 60 and lucked out, so it can work. Just have some confidence in your ability to find later values and, most importantly, take chances if need be."

Having already secured a quarterback, two running backs and two wide receivers, I decided to grab another starter in TE Vernon Davis, who I think is head and shoulders above the rest of the remaining tight end pack. Also, there were no great flex options I couldn't live without. Roberts followed that with Demaryius Thomas, who surprisingly went before teammate Eric Decker. "I'm just a big believer in Thomas' upside and second half [in 2011]," Roberts said. "He's riskier than Decker, in my opinion, but I have stars in my eyes. I'm thinking big, not looking to finish a steady 7-5 in the regular season."

ROUND 7

<table><thead><tr><th> Pick </th><th> Overall </th><th> By </th><th> Player </th><th> Pos Rank </th></tr><tbody><tr class="last"><td> 1 </td><td> 73 </td><td> Joyner </td><td>Roy Helu, Wsh </td><td> RB32 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 2 </td><td> 74 </td><td> Hunter </td><td>Matt Ryan, Atl </td><td> QB10 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 3 </td><td> 75 </td><td> Cwalinski </td><td>Donald Brown, Ind </td><td> RB33 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 4 </td><td> 76 </td><td> Harris </td><td>Jermichael Finley, GB </td><td> TE5 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 5 </td><td> 77 </td><td> McCormick </td><td>Aaron Hernandez, NE </td><td> TE6 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 6 </td><td> 78 </td><td> Quintong </td><td>Tony Gonzalez, Atl </td><td> TE7 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 7 </td><td> 79 </td><td> Lipscomb </td><td>Philip Rivers, SD </td><td> QB11 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 8 </td><td> 80 </td><td> Karabell </td><td>Beanie Wells, Ari </td><td> RB34 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 9 </td><td> 81 </td><td> Mass </td><td>DeSean Jackson, Phi </td><td> WR29 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 10 </td><td> 82 </td><td> Roberts </td><td>C.J. Spiller, Buf </td><td> RB35 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 11 </td><td> 83 </td><td> Gramling </td><td>Toby Gerhart, Min </td><td> RB36 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 12 </td><td> 84 </td><td> Cockcroft </td><td>Isaac Redman, Pit </td><td> RB37 </td></tr></tbody></table>

Round 7 analysis: Three owners were still without quarterbacks, with Matt Ryan, Philip Rivers and Ben Roethlisberger the top three on the board. Hunter snagged Ryan at No. 74, much to the chagrin of Lipscomb, who settled for Rivers five picks later. "I officially waited too long on Ryan," Lipscomb said. "That was my debate with my sixth-round pick of Torrey Smith. I like Ryan this season, but with only three of us without a QB, I was going to take him in the seventh in hopes Hunter would continue to pass or just select Rivers or Big Ben."

McCormick was expected to take his RB2 here, having just Kevin Smith at running back at this point in the draft. But, despite already owning Jimmy Graham, he selected his second tight end in Round 7, Aaron Hernandez. What's up with that? "I took Hernandez given the flex rule, and he was my highest-rated player left," McCormick said. "And I am hoping he gets RB eligibility, given my horrid depth there."

ROUND 8

<table><thead><tr><th> Pick </th><th> Overall </th><th> By </th><th> Player </th><th> Pos Rank </th></tr><tbody><tr class="last"><td> 1 </td><td> 85 </td><td> Cockcroft </td><td>Robert Meachem, SD </td><td> WR30 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 2 </td><td> 86 </td><td> Gramling </td><td>Michael Bush, Chi </td><td> RB38 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 3 </td><td> 87 </td><td> Roberts </td><td>Mark Ingram, NO </td><td> RB39 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 4 </td><td> 88 </td><td> Mass </td><td>Rashad Jennings, Jac </td><td> RB40 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 5 </td><td> 89 </td><td> Karabell </td><td>Ben Roethlisberger, Pit </td><td> QB12 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 6 </td><td> 90 </td><td> Lipscomb </td><td>Daniel Thomas, Mia </td><td> RB41 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 7 </td><td> 91 </td><td> Quintong </td><td>Michael Crabtree, SF </td><td> WR31 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 8 </td><td> 92 </td><td> McCormick </td><td>Robert Griffin III, Wsh </td><td> QB13 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 9 </td><td> 93 </td><td> Harris </td><td>David Wilson, NYG </td><td> RB42 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 10 </td><td> 94 </td><td> Cwalinski </td><td>Nate Washington, Ten </td><td> WR32 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 11 </td><td> 95 </td><td> Hunter </td><td>Felix Jones, Dal </td><td> RB43 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 12 </td><td> 96 </td><td> Joyner </td><td>Jared Cook, Ten </td><td> TE8 </td></tr></tbody></table>

ROUND 9

<table><thead><tr><th> Pick </th><th> Overall </th><th> By </th><th> Player </th><th> Pos Rank </th></tr><tbody><tr class="last"><td> 1 </td><td> 97 </td><td> Joyner </td><td> 49ers D/ST </td><td> D/ST1 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 2 </td><td> 98 </td><td> Hunter </td><td>Darrius Heyward-Bey, Oak </td><td> WR33 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 3 </td><td> 99 </td><td> Cwalinski </td><td>Denarius Moore, Oak </td><td> WR34 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 4 </td><td> 100 </td><td> Harris </td><td>Matt Schaub, Hou </td><td> QB14 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 5 </td><td> 101 </td><td> McCormick </td><td>Ryan Williams, Ari </td><td> RB44 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 6 </td><td> 102 </td><td> Quintong </td><td>Malcom Floyd, SD </td><td> WR35 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 7 </td><td> 103 </td><td> Lipscomb </td><td>Titus Young, Det </td><td> WR36 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 8 </td><td> 104 </td><td> Karabell </td><td>Jason Witten, Dal </td><td> TE9 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 9 </td><td> 105 </td><td> Mass </td><td>Lance Moore, NO </td><td> WR37 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 10 </td><td> 106 </td><td> Roberts </td><td>Santonio Holmes, NYJ </td><td> WR38 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 11 </td><td> 107 </td><td> Gramling </td><td>Jay Cutler, Chi </td><td> QB15 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 12 </td><td> 108 </td><td> Cockcroft </td><td>Shane Vereen, NE </td><td> RB45 </td></tr></tbody></table>

ROUND 10

<table><thead><tr><th> Pick </th><th> Overall </th><th> By </th><th> Player </th><th> Pos Rank </th></tr><tbody><tr class="last"><td> 1 </td><td> 109 </td><td> Cockcroft </td><td>Fred Davis, Wsh </td><td> TE10 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 2 </td><td> 110 </td><td> Gramling </td><td> Texans D/ST </td><td> D/ST2 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 3 </td><td> 111 </td><td> Roberts </td><td>LeGarrette Blount, TB </td><td> RB46 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 4 </td><td> 112 </td><td> Mass </td><td>Jacob Tamme, Den </td><td> TE11 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 5 </td><td> 113 </td><td> Karabell </td><td>Josh Freeman, TB </td><td> QB16 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 6 </td><td> 114 </td><td> Lipscomb </td><td>Joe Flacco, Bal </td><td> QB17 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 7 </td><td> 115 </td><td> Quintong </td><td>Pierre Thomas, NO </td><td> RB47 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 8 </td><td> 116 </td><td> McCormick </td><td>Jonathan Dwyer, Pit </td><td> RB48 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 9 </td><td> 117 </td><td> Harris </td><td>Kenny Britt, Ten </td><td> WR39 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 10 </td><td> 118 </td><td> Cwalinski </td><td>Reggie Wayne, Ind </td><td> WR40 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 11 </td><td> 119 </td><td> Hunter </td><td>Justin Blackmon, Jac </td><td> WR41 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 12 </td><td> 120 </td><td> Joyner </td><td>Anquan Boldin, Bal </td><td> WR42 </td></tr></tbody></table>

Rounds 8-10 analysis: As experts continued to add depth to their starting lineups, Mass made sure to handcuff Jones-Drew with Rashad Jennings in Round 8. "Now I'm covered, and it only costs me an eighth-round pick," Mass said.

True to his form this mock season, Joyner broke the D/ST seal with the 49ers to begin Round 9. "I've got San Francisco as the top-rated D/ST by a wide margin," Joyner said. "Getting them as a starter seemed to be more valuable than getting a backup player at another position. I probably took them a bit earlier than usual but didn't think they would make it to pick No. 120." Considering I grabbed the Texans' D, an excellent unit but greatly lacking the potency of the Niners, in the 10th, Joyner was right.

These three rounds included six quarterback picks. Karabell took Roethlisberger in Round 8, three picks before the first QB2 came off the board, Robert Griffin III to McCormick. Speaking of Karabell, I hardly recognized his roster, as he took Jason Witten in the ninth round instead of his stalwart TE Tony Gonzalez, whom Quintong had grabbed two rounds earlier. When was the last time Karabell did not have Gonzalez on his mock roster? "About 2006," answered the Fantasy Hall of Famer, who roped me into playing in his fantasy hockey league that he dominated in the year 2000.

Having already selected Bryant and Cedric Benson, Harris chose another fantasy lightning rod in Round 10 with Kenny Britt, coming off ACL surgery and facing a possible suspension for a DUI charge, a suspension we found out later in the week would be just one game. How many games do you really expect this guy to play? "Britt's suspension will just be a game or two, and the knee might be a bigger early-season factor," Harris said. "I'd say 12 games sounds right. We're talking about a 10th-rounder, a bench guy who, on talent alone, would be borderline top 15. He was well worth grabbing, especially teaming him with Kendall Wright, so I feel like I've got a Titans fill-in WR locked down."

ROUND 11

<table><thead><tr><th> Pick </th><th> Overall </th><th> By </th><th> Player </th><th> Pos Rank </th></tr><tbody><tr class="last"><td> 1 </td><td> 121 </td><td> Joyner </td><td>Evan Royster, Wsh </td><td> RB49 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 2 </td><td> 122 </td><td> Hunter </td><td>Andrew Luck, Ind </td><td> QB18 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 3 </td><td> 123 </td><td> Cwalinski </td><td>Brandon Pettigrew, Det </td><td> TE12 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 4 </td><td> 124 </td><td> Harris </td><td>Kendall Wright, Ten </td><td> WR43 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 5 </td><td> 125 </td><td> McCormick </td><td>Jacquizz Rodgers, Atl </td><td> RB50 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 6 </td><td> 126 </td><td> Quintong </td><td>Andy Dalton, Cin </td><td> QB19 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 7 </td><td> 127 </td><td> Lipscomb </td><td>Rashard Mendenhall, Pit </td><td> RB51 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 8 </td><td> 128 </td><td> Karabell </td><td>Sidney Rice, Sea </td><td> WR44 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 9 </td><td> 129 </td><td> Mass </td><td>Ryan Fitzpatrick, Buf </td><td> QB20 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 10 </td><td> 130 </td><td> Roberts </td><td> Ravens D/ST </td><td> D/ST3 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 11 </td><td> 131 </td><td> Gramling </td><td>Brandon LaFell, Car </td><td> WR45 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 12 </td><td> 132 </td><td> Cockcroft </td><td>Rueben Randle, NYG </td><td> WR46 </td></tr></tbody></table>

ROUND 12

<table><thead><tr><th> Pick </th><th> Overall </th><th> By </th><th> Player </th><th> Pos Rank </th></tr><tbody><tr class="last"><td> 1 </td><td> 133 </td><td> Cockcroft </td><td>Alfred Morris, Wsh </td><td> RB52 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 2 </td><td> 134 </td><td> Gramling </td><td>Brent Celek, Phi </td><td> TE13 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 3 </td><td> 135 </td><td> Roberts </td><td>Owen Daniels, Hou </td><td> TE14 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 4 </td><td> 136 </td><td> Mass </td><td> Bears D/ST </td><td> D/ST4 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 5 </td><td> 137 </td><td> Karabell </td><td>Mike Williams, TB </td><td> WR47 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 6 </td><td> 138 </td><td> Lipscomb </td><td>Greg Olsen, Car </td><td> TE15 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 7 </td><td> 139 </td><td> Quintong </td><td>Isaiah Pead, StL </td><td> RB53 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 8 </td><td> 140 </td><td> McCormick </td><td>Mike Goodson, Oak </td><td> RB54 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 9 </td><td> 141 </td><td> Harris </td><td>Kendall Hunter, SF </td><td> RB55 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 10 </td><td> 142 </td><td> Cwalinski </td><td>Mikel Leshoure, Det </td><td> RB56 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 11 </td><td> 143 </td><td> Hunter </td><td>Tim Hightower, Wsh </td><td> RB57 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 12 </td><td> 144 </td><td> Joyner </td><td>Randy Moss, SF </td><td> WR48 </td></tr></tbody></table>

ROUND 13

<table><thead><tr><th> Pick </th><th> Overall </th><th> By </th><th> Player </th><th> Pos Rank </th></tr><tbody><tr class="last"><td> 1 </td><td> 145 </td><td> Joyner </td><td>Leonard Hankerson, Wsh </td><td> WR49 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 2 </td><td> 146 </td><td> Hunter </td><td>Taiwan Jones, Oak </td><td> RB58 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 3 </td><td> 147 </td><td> Cwalinski </td><td> Steelers D/ST </td><td> D/ST5 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 4 </td><td> 148 </td><td> Harris </td><td>Greg Little, Cle </td><td> WR50 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 5 </td><td> 149 </td><td> McCormick </td><td>Robert Turbin, Sea </td><td> RB59 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 6 </td><td> 150 </td><td> Quintong </td><td>Coby Fleener, Ind </td><td> TE16 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 7 </td><td> 151 </td><td> Lipscomb </td><td>Lamar Miller, Mia </td><td> RB60 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 8 </td><td> 152 </td><td> Karabell </td><td>Mike Tolbert, Car </td><td> RB61 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 9 </td><td> 153 </td><td> Mass </td><td>Ronnie Hillman, Den </td><td> RB62 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 10 </td><td> 154 </td><td> Roberts </td><td>Jon Baldwin, KC </td><td> WR51 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 11 </td><td> 155 </td><td> Gramling </td><td>Nate Burleson, Det </td><td> WR52 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 12 </td><td> 156 </td><td> Cockcroft </td><td>Bernard Scott*, Cin </td><td> RB63 </td></tr></tbody></table>

Rounds 11-13 analysis: As teams tried to secure backups and handcuffs, Joyner was slightly bummed that he didn't complete the Washington Redskins running back trio, missing it by one pick when Hunter capped a five-RB run by choosing Tim Hightower with the second-to-last pick of Round 12. Joyner settled for Randy Moss, then perked up with his selection of Leonard Hankerson, McCormick's deep sleeper, in Round 13. "Hankerson actually had as good/better collegiate metrics than Julio Jones in 2010," The Football Scientist said.

ROUND 14

<table><thead><tr><th> Pick </th><th> Overall </th><th> By </th><th> Player </th><th> Pos Rank </th></tr><tbody><tr class="last"><td> 1 </td><td> 157 </td><td> Cockcroft </td><td>Carson Palmer, Oak </td><td> QB21 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 2 </td><td> 158 </td><td> Gramling </td><td>Dion Lewis, Phi </td><td> RB64 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 3 </td><td> 159 </td><td> Roberts </td><td>Alex Smith, SF </td><td> QB22 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 4 </td><td> 160 </td><td> Mass </td><td>Alshon Jeffery, Chi </td><td> WR53 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 5 </td><td> 161 </td><td> Karabell </td><td>James Starks, GB </td><td> RB65 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 6 </td><td> 162 </td><td> Lipscomb </td><td> Seahawks D/ST </td><td> D/ST6 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 7 </td><td> 163 </td><td> Quintong </td><td>Tim Tebow, NYJ </td><td> QB23 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 8 </td><td> 164 </td><td> McCormick </td><td>Danny Amendola, StL </td><td> WR54 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 9 </td><td> 165 </td><td> Harris </td><td> Eagles D/ST </td><td> D/ST7 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 10 </td><td> 166 </td><td> Cwalinski </td><td>Russell Wilson, Sea </td><td> QB24 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 11 </td><td> 167 </td><td> Hunter </td><td> Falcons D/ST </td><td> D/ST8 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 12 </td><td> 168 </td><td> Joyner </td><td>Matt Cassel, KC </td><td> QB25 </td></tr></tbody></table>

ROUND 15

<table><thead><tr><th> Pick </th><th> Overall </th><th> By </th><th> Player </th><th> Pos Rank </th></tr><tbody><tr class="last"><td> 1 </td><td> 169 </td><td> Joyner </td><td>LaMichael James, SF </td><td> RB66 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 2 </td><td> 170 </td><td> Hunter </td><td>Kyle Rudolph, Min </td><td> TE17 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 3 </td><td> 171 </td><td> Cwalinski </td><td>Montario Hardesty, Cle </td><td> RB67 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 4 </td><td> 172 </td><td> Harris </td><td>Jerome Simpson, Min </td><td> WR55 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 5 </td><td> 173 </td><td> McCormick </td><td> Bills D/ST </td><td> D/ST9 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 6 </td><td> 174 </td><td> Quintong </td><td> Jets D/ST </td><td> D/ST10 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 7 </td><td> 175 </td><td> Lipscomb </td><td>Randall Cobb, GB </td><td> WR56 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 8 </td><td> 176 </td><td> Karabell </td><td> Lions D/ST </td><td> D/ST11 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 9 </td><td> 177 </td><td> Mass </td><td>Scott Chandler, Buf </td><td> TE18 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 10 </td><td> 178 </td><td> Roberts </td><td>Stephen Gostkowski, NE K </td><td> K1 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 11 </td><td> 179 </td><td> Gramling </td><td>Bernard Pierce, Bal </td><td> RB68 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 12 </td><td> 180 </td><td> Cockcroft </td><td> Giants D/ST </td><td> D/ST12 </td></tr></tbody></table>

ROUND 16

<table><thead><tr><th> Pick </th><th> Overall </th><th> By </th><th> Player </th><th> Pos Rank </th></tr><tbody><tr class="last"><td> 1 </td><td> 181 </td><td> Cockcroft </td><td>David Akers, SF K </td><td> K2 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 2 </td><td> 182 </td><td> Gramling </td><td>Mason Crosby, GB K </td><td> K3 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 3 </td><td> 183 </td><td> Roberts </td><td>Kellen Winslow, Sea </td><td> TE19 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 4 </td><td> 184 </td><td> Mass </td><td>Greg Zuerlein, StL K </td><td> K4 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 5 </td><td> 185 </td><td> Karabell </td><td>Sebastian Janikowski, Oak K </td><td> K5 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 6 </td><td> 186 </td><td> Lipscomb </td><td>Matt Prater, Den K </td><td> K6 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 7 </td><td> 187 </td><td> Quintong </td><td>Alex Henery, Phi K </td><td> K7 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 8 </td><td> 188 </td><td> McCormick </td><td>Matt Bryant, Atl K </td><td> K8 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 9 </td><td> 189 </td><td> Harris </td><td>Garrett Hartley, NO K </td><td> K9 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 10 </td><td> 190 </td><td> Cwalinski </td><td>Rob Bironas, Ten K </td><td> K10 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 11 </td><td> 191 </td><td> Hunter </td><td>Dan Bailey, Dal K </td><td> K11 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 12 </td><td> 192 </td><td> Joyner </td><td>Robbie Gould, Chi K </td><td> K12 </td></tr></tbody></table>

Rounds 14-16 analysis: Nothing too exciting about the final three rounds, which went by like a blur. The entire draft took less than an hour, averaging out to about 18 seconds per pick.

Fantasy draft advice and random thoughts

Karabell: This year more than most others, it really is best to get one of the top three or four picks so you can secure one of the top running backs. That's even if you need to trade up, assuming it's an option. I picked eighth in the final mock and was fortunate to get two running backs I liked. Past that, focus on balance, not only by position but young and old, durable and health risks, etc. I'm still avoiding quarterbacks and tight ends early, making my top five or six picks running backs and wide receivers and getting proper depth there. You can get Philip Rivers and Tony Gonzalez and fellows like that at such a bargain. Be patient there. Owners who avoid running backs early because "they all stink" won't have good running backs, period. Otherwise, enjoy the draft because it really is the best day of the season. Feel free to trash-talk to make an owner think too much about his or her picks. A lot of the time it works. One pet peeve is when an owner comes to an offline draft unprepared, with five magazines and notes. Either you know it or you don't, and if you're using too much time for each pick, it ruins the experience for everyone.

Lipscomb: I try not to get caught up in position runs, as tough as that might be at running back this season, and just take the best available player, using position scarcity only as a tiebreaker. If you like a player, don't be afraid to take him a round or two earlier than his average draft position because someone else in the league may like him as well. You'll wind up kicking yourself for waiting too long. … Although I don't like to eat too much during fantasy drafts, things such as nachos, Reese's Pieces, beef jerky and popcorn make the perfect snacks because you can still man the computer or write down notes without making a mess. A simple Blow Pop will do the trick for a few rounds.

Harris: If you want to know whether you should draft Player X or Player Y, my rankings are right here. If you want to know the 10 players I think provide the most value this season, they're right here. If you want 10 super-deep sleepers, they're right here. However, if you want to know my pre-draft regimen, well, that's a secret. Suffice to say it involves a trust fall, four Saul Bellow novels and a tub of caramel corn.

Cockcroft: Draft day is one of the best days of the calendar year, after Christmas and my kids' birthdays, and you should celebrate it as such. That means do what you want, eat what you want and act how you want at the draft. That means I mostly do night drafts, spend my morning printing my draft sheet and checking the last-minute news, eat an early dinner -- chicken Parmesan or a good burger (no generic fast food) -- get to the draft about 30-40 minutes early and pretty much be cocky the entire night. I suggest you do the same. Let someone get into your head and they've defeated you, certain to show up in your final record. Don't be too cocky, but enough that you give the impression you're the expert at this. Frankly, with our rankings, you will be.

Joyner: This year's draft offers a unique opportunity for those picking at the later end of the first round. According to my draft guide, there are only 16 blue-rated players, meaning they are the truly elite picks. Two of those are tight ends who really should not be drafted until the third round, so that leaves 14 difference-makers. Teams drafting early won't get a shot at more than one of those players, but a team picking somewhere near the end of the first round will have a chance at snagging two of those picks. Being a bit contrary in a draft outlook can be a big boon for finding value picks. It can make players such as Julio Jones, Matt Forte and Matt Schaub great draft-day pickups under the right circumstances. As far as how to make the draft more enjoyable, try getting your family involved. My oldest son is just getting into football. When he got a kick out of some of the winning bids we made in a recent auction draft, it was about as cool as fantasy football gets.

Mass: The most important thing to do is to rank the players and, for the most part, stick to the list while ignoring what everyone else says or does. Don't get caught up in runs. If you have Percy Harvin as the most valuable player on the board, don't take Vernon Davis simply because Graham, Gronk and Gates went in the previous three picks. Trust that you've done the research better than your opponents and don't second-guess yourself or you'll never leave a draft happy with the results.

McCormick: Enjoy draft day, and do your best to draft with friends and make an event out of it. Live drafts are simply the best and are to be regarded as a holiday. In my league with friends from high school, we can't all get together for a live draft for a variety of reasons -- namely kids and living hundreds of miles apart. But several of us still make sure to meet up every year with laptops in tow, and it's something I look forward to, like that time Santa got me a Sega Genesis and "Joe Montana Football." Sure, there are great times to be had in the draft chat room, and we all still talk plenty of trash with our keyboards, but live harassment, humor and camaraderie is an entirely more enjoyable experience. Order your favorite grub, talk your best smack and get those players you fell in love with over all those mocks. Let's be honest, only one team is going to win your league, so have a ball on draft day.

Cwalinski: People get way too hung up on planning out their drafts. 'I am going to take Player X in Round 1, Player Y in Round 2, so should I take Player A, B or C in Round 3?' It is nice that you have a plan, but what if Player X is taken before you pick? How do you know that Player Y will be available? What if all of A, B and C are gone? A draft is a fluid thing, so you need to go with the flow.
Hunter: In years past, I always talked about sticking to one strategy, not being flexible at all, but this year, you just can't play to your stubborn draft histories. You have to develop two or three draft strategies based on where you're picking. For instance, If I'm picking 1-4, I want Rodgers or one of the big three running back options (Arian Foster, Ray Rice or LeSean McCoy). If I have an 8-12 spot, I'm going to be looking at Chris Johnson and one of the superhero TEs, Gronkowski or Graham. You have to stay flexible when drafting and not be afraid to gamble. I just took part in a 14-team in-person live draft with some friends Tuesday evening, and the fear in drafting Jones-Drew was nutty; no one wanted him. Even with a holdout that could cause him to miss a chunk of the season, he is still worth drafting. I grabbed him at pick No. 41 overall, hoping the gamble will pay off. I still have confidence he'll report to the Jaguars soon.

Quintong: The interesting thing when I do a lot of drafts with friends -- and a little among industry "experts" -- is that some people will specifically point out players I like and have written extensively about. Thus, I sometimes have to reach for those players or else get beaten to them by others who may or may not know what was going on without reading me. As for other draft advice, I tend to be flexible as the draft goes along, although I often approach picks by position even more than actual talent/value. It's not always the best way to go. You might lose out on a value that's dropping in the draft. On the other hand, it can help you if looking at tiers of players. If I think I can still get someone from the same tier in a later round, I might find the last player left in another position's tier or else get stuck with marginal talent later.

Roberts: Whether it's a league with my workmates or just owners I know, I like to go against what the room does. I believe that's how you get the best bargains. For instance, in baseball leagues, my workmates don't like to take closers early, so I hold back a round versus my norm, then snag the first closer. When they're fighting for closers in the middle rounds, I can get the best of what's left at deep positions. In football leagues, I get a feel for what position is on a run, then try to go elsewhere, assuming there's a bit of depth remaining. If my fellow drafters are taking running backs early, I feel I could make a killing taking other positions, loading up on high-upside guys in Rounds 3 and beyond, figuring at least two of them should pan out.

As for my thoughts, my advice is to keep a team-by-team draft board to know who needs which positions. If you're picking ninth in a 12-team league and don't have a tight end in Round 5 or Round 7, it's silly to draft one in an odd-numbered round if Teams 10, 11 and 12 already have that position filled. Choose another position and take your tight end on the way out.

More importantly, I echo the sentiments of these experts to have fun and not take draft night so seriously that you forget why you're doing this. Fantasy football is a way to keep in touch with friends and family and provides a fun outlet from the stress and worry in our lives. Sure, we all want to win and love to gloat. Quarterback health permitting, you will field a competitive team if you continue to pay attention. Keep reading and listening to all the men and women who love their ESPN.com fantasy sports gigs almost as much as I do. Have a blast during your drafts this weekend, and enjoy what promises to be another incredible season of fantasy football.

HacheMan · Aug 31, 2012

Stock Watch: Keep eye on Britt

The relatively good news that Tennessee Titans wide receiver Kenny Britt was suspended for only one game has clearly sent a good portion of fantasy owners scurrying to update their draft lists. Frankly, there were concerns the NFL would levy harsher punishment on Britt, an extremely talented player but one who just cannot avoid trouble off the field. Then again, Britt has made news on the field as well, as he tore his ACL in Week 3 last season and missed considerable time the year before as well. The state of his knees always seemed the more critical issue to determining his value anyway.

Still, at least Britt will be eligible to suit up in Week 2, and anyone who has seen him play knows the potential is there for a monster season. The pieces are in place for an improved Titans team, with running back Chris Johnson poised to return to his 2010 self (well, close to it, we hope), and young quarterback Jake Locker, an upgrade athletically and for arm strength, the new starter. Say what you will about Britt's indiscretions, but the guy has mad skills. Through two weeks last season, he already had registered 271 receiving yards and three touchdowns. In the 10 games in which he caught passes in 2010 he hauled in touchdowns in seven of them, including a magnificent October performance when he embarrassed Nnamdi Asomugha of the Philadelphia Eagles (and others) for 225 receiving yards and three touchdowns, doing so with Kerry Collins at quarterback.

With health and hopefully legal woes behind him, Britt certainly has top top-10 wide receiver potential. Yet as of Friday morning he's merely an 11th-round choice on average in ESPN's live drafts, 37th among wide receivers, each of those figures clearly driven by the risk. The reward, however, is so sweet.

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In keeping with the theme of this weekly Stock Watch blog entry, it's certainly worth noting that his value is rising quickly. The only wide receiver whose 7-day snake draft stock has risen faster is Braylon Edwards of the Seattle Seahawks, but it's a bit misleading, since he wasn't being selected at all and is still owned in only 10 percent of leagues. By the end of this holiday weekend Britt might have moved into the top 30 wide receivers, quite a feat since it was news of an actual suspension that triggered the rise. It could have been worse.

The Titans activated Britt from the PUP list this week and there were concerns that he wouldn't be a full participant in Week 1 anyway. Forcing him to miss the game is a good thing, though one can salivate at the damage he might have done, even at 75 percent, against the New England Patriots secondary. Even by Week 2 (San Diego Chargers), he might not be on the field for most of the plays, but reports from the team about Britt's ability to run and cut have been positive. By the way, rookie Kendall Wright is expected to start against the Patriots, for those looking for a deep-league sleeper in Week 1.

Britt's value will continue to justifiably rise, and as we hit the final weekend before the games count -- the regular season starts this coming Wednesday! -- here are some other players moving around for our Stock Watch. This week we fit in even more names.

Movin' on up

Russell Wilson, QB, Seattle Seahawks: From undrafted to ahead of Carson Palmer and Ryan Fitzpatrick, and the rookie should soon pass Andy Dalton, Josh Freeman and Alex Smith, too. There is upside. Note that the top quarterbacks aren't seeing value change much.

Peyton Manning, QB, Denver Broncos: Poised to pass Michael Vick into the No. 7 spot among QBs. To think Manning is the healthy one in this comparison.

Doug Martin, RB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers: The team's acknowledgement that the rookie will start over LeGarrette Blount is cause for celebration, and a move to clear flex status. Martin could crack the top 20 running backs soon.

Mikel Leshoure, RB, Detroit Lions: I've been touting him for a while, and no running back's status in ADP has improved as much over the past week. By October this guy is starting. Heck, could be by Week 3, when he's first eligible to play.

Rashad Jennings, RB, Jacksonville Jaguars: It's surprising that he's owned in only about half of ESPN's standard leagues. He's starting in Week 1, and while I still think Maurice Jones-Drew returns quickly, with each passing day …

Eric Decker, WR, Denver Broncos: C'mon, doesn't it seem a bit odd that Decker has zoomed past teammate Demaryius Thomas over the past week just because of the implication that Peyton Manning likes him more in preseason action? I think he likes them both.

James Jones, WR, Green Bay Packers: He's become the popular "why not?" pick among 15th-round receivers, which makes sense. Meanwhile, colleague Randall Cobb is down a round.

Most tight ends after the big names: Interestingly, while Aaron Hernandez is the high riser at tight end, past him a horde of guys after the top 100 are moving, like Kellen Winslow, Jared Cook, Martellus Bennett and Greg Olsen. Owners are realizing a second tight end matters as opposed to a questionable sixth wide receiver, when each can be used at flex.

Others: Joe Flacco has moved into the 12th round, and breakout wide receiver Torrey Smith is safely in Round 9. I've got Smith two rounds better. … Tim Tebow remains owned in merely a quarter of leagues, but he's moving up. … Cedric Benson is clearly starting in Green Bay, and he has justifiably cracked the ADP top 100. … A bunch of younger running backs who haven't failed yet, as opposed to the veterans who start, are movin' up: David Wilson, Ryan Williams, Jacquizz Rodgers. … Kendall Wright, Jon Baldwin and Darrius Heyward-Bey are young fellows at wide receiver with bright futures, each more popular than a week ago.

Movin' on down

Matt Flynn, QB, Seahawks: From Tebow range (Round 13) to undrafted. How sad, but reasonable.

Andy Dalton, QB, Cincinnati Bengals: Suffered a minor arm injury in final preseason tilt, which probably is driving his fall, but the fact is others simply have more upside.

Evan Royster and Roy Helu, RBs, Washington Redskins: These are the first two names when it comes to falling the farthest over the past week, which says a lot about coach Mike Shanahan, since Tim Hightower (and you don't want him, because the Redskins let him go) has seen only a slight rise. Yes, it's best to avoid this ever-changing situation, and you're doing it.

Isaac Redman, RB, Pittsburgh Steelers: Similarly annoying since we have only some clarity on who starts even in Week 1. Redman remains the most attractive fantasy asset here over Jonathan Dwyer and Rashard Mendenhall, though.

Michael Floyd, WR, Arizona Cardinals and Brian Quick, WR, St. Louis Rams: Rookie running backs are rising, but not the wide receivers. These guys are no longer being selected. In Floyd's case the quarterback situation is ghastly, and Quick is likely not a starter.

Randy Moss, WR, San Francisco 49ers: About time.

Santonio Holmes, WR, New York Jets: Don't agree with him slipping outside the top 100. Jets will score (some) touchdowns in September.

Malcom Floyd and Robert Meachem, WRs, San Diego Chargers: Don't agree here, either. Philip Rivers will target these guys plenty.

Others: Can't really explain why hotshot rookie Andrew Luck has seen his stock drop in ADP recently. Colts will certainly throw a lot. … As Benson rises, James Starks predictably falls. Don't expect much from Starks this year. … Mark Ingram is down five spots in a week, which is odd because his current knee injury is not deemed serious. … Indy's Donald Brown is down four spots, hopefully not because of the third preseason game, when he rushed for 8 yards on seven carries. This is a sleeper. … Edwards' rise in Seattle correlates with Terrell Owens being cut. Not a great reason, frankly. … DeSean Jackson is slipping in the seventh round, but he really shouldn't.

Enjoy your drafts this holiday weekend!

HacheMan · Aug 31, 2012

One More Mock For The Road
“Expert” mock drafts are quite useful, but they do present a problem: 99.9 percent of the population isn’t drafting in an “experts” league. That is not meant as a knock on “friends leagues,” but an acknowledgment that they trend toward different (and not necessarily worse) draft patterns.

These “experts” leagues Evan, Chris, Adam, Mike and myself compete in? All the sleepers have been woken up by Round 5. Exciting new talents tend to be aggressively overdrafted, while players with even the hint of a question mark can drop like a stone before becoming somebody’s “value pick.”

On the other hand, the average 12-team friends league (of which I participate in many) probably has 3-4 people who really know their stuff, 3-4 who at least downloaded an app or bought a magazine and 3-4 more who only tangentially follow NFL football. The final one or two members are traditionally a brother or friend of a friend whose main quality is a willingness to pay the $25 entry free. In these drafts, the big sleepers typically get monumentally overdrafted, while the second and third tier of roto-community darlings often fall to the teen rounds.

Which brings us to this somewhat happy medium. All 12 players in this draft are experts/fantasy professionals — just not in football. That is not to say most, if not all, of the participants don’t follow the NFL closely, it's just not their day job. Of the 12, we have eight baseball specialists, two basketball experts, one bossman and one hybrid. A PPR slow draft that will be played out — translation: none of these picks are for show — we’ll be starting 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 1 FLEX, 1 K and 1 DEF. Without further ado.

ROUND 1
1. Brett Vandermark (The Boss) - Arian Foster
2. Matthew Pouliot (MLB) - Ray Rice
3. Thor Nystrom (MLB) - Aaron Rodgers
4. Aaron Bruski (NBA) - LeSean McCoy
5. Drew Silva (MLB) - Darren McFadden
6. Aaron Gleeman (MLB) - Tom Brady
7. Eno Sarris (MLB) - Calvin Johnson
8. Ryan Boyer (MLB) - Chris Johnson
9. D.J. Short (MLB) - Drew Brees
10. Nick Nelson (MLB) - Cam Newton
11. Steve Alexander (NBA) - Julio Jones
12. Patrick Daugherty (NFL/MLB) - Ryan Mathews

Notes: The big surprise is McCoy — Rotoworld’s No. 2 overall player — falling to No. 4. Thor is from the north, however, which should help explain his Rodgers pick. … As has been noted in other places on this website, one of the defining first-round questions this season has been DMC vs. CJwhateverK. Drew didn’t hesitate to take McFadden. … The Brady pick signals one of signature differences between friend and expert leagues — the willingness to take quarterbacks early and often. The run on the QBs started exceptionally early here, however, and I responded in kind in Round 2. … Jones going 11th is an expert-league staple. Well done, Docktor.

ROUND 2
13. Daugherty - Matthew Stafford
14. Alexander - Matt Forte
15. Nelson - DeMarco Murray
16. Short - Maurice Jones-Drew
17. Boyer - Larry Fitzgerald
18. Sarris - Jimmy Graham
19. Gleeman - Steven Jackson
20. Silva - Rob Gronkowski
21. Bruski - Adrian Peterson
22. Nystrom - Jamaal Charles
23. Pouliot - Marshawn Lynch
24. Vandermark - Andre Johnson

Notes: Taking Stafford 13th would have garnered eye rolls in any one of my numerous summer mocks, but after four quarterbacks went off the board in Round 1, there was no way my favorite fantasy player of 2012 was falling to the third round. I made a passion pick, which usually aren’t recommended quite this early, but I still felt good about it … Forte and Murray are both textbook picks, as is letting MJD fall to Round 2. … Steven Jackson going 17th may raise eyebrows, but it’s actually one spot lower than he went in Rotoworld’s most recent experts mock. He’s our No. 15 overall player. … Charles and Peterson falling so far was one ramification of so many signal callers going early. Neither player is typically falling this far in any draft, friend or expert.

ROUND 3
25. Vandermark - Dez Bryant
26. Pouliot - Greg Jennings
27. Nystrom - Wes Welker
28. Bruski - Darren Sproles
29. Silva - Michael Vick
30. Gleeman - Doug Martin
31. Sarris - Trent Richardson
32. Boyer - A.J. Green
33. Short - Hakeem Nicks
34. Nelson - Jordy Nelson
35. Alexander - Roddy White
36. Daugherty - Steve Smith

Notes: I was initially surprised by both the Jennings and Welker selections, but each was in line with the most recent RW expert mock. … Gleeman scooped up Martin just 12 spots ahead of his current ADP. It’s an excellent pick, as Tampa’s No. 1 back has begun to sneak into the second round in expert leagues. … T-Rich a smart value pick by Eno. … Green is an absolutely amazing pick at No. 32. … The Nicks and Nelson selections are both in line with their ADP, but that doesn’t make either any less of a steal at this stage. … Roddy White: 24 picks after Julio. A shockingly common (and logically sound) occurrence for a player who led the NFL in targets last season.

ROUND 4
37. Daugherty - Brandon Lloyd
38. Alexander - Fred Jackson
39. Nelson - Marques Colston
40. Short - Percy Harvin
41. Boyer - Victor Cruz
42. Sarris - Ahmad Bradshaw
43. Gleeman - Brandon Marshall
44. Silva - Demaryius Thomas
45. Bruski - Mike Wallace
46. Nystrom - Antonio Gates
47. Pouliot - Peyton Manning
48. Vandermark - Aaron Hernandez

Notes: I’ve noticed Lloyd beginning to slip a bit from his mid-August peak in both friend and expert leagues, but it’s doubtful he would have escaped the fourth round had I not made him the first pick. … Jackson at No. 38 directly matches his ADP. … Cruz in the fourth round has been a surprisingly common occurrence this summer. I’m beginning to think he’s the Jose Bautista of the NFL: by the time we all accept that he’s “for real” for real, he’ll be working on his third straight monster season. … Marshall, Demaryius and Wallace all hung close to their ADPs. … Peyton went seven spots above his. Peyton lasted until the seventh round in RW’s August 13 mock.

ROUND 5
49. Vandermark - Matt Ryan
50. Pouliot - Eli Manning
51. Nystrom - Jeremy Maclin
52. Bruski - Eric Decker
53. Silva - Pierre Garcon
54. Gleeman - Dwayne Bowe
55. Sarris - Tony Romo
56. Boyer - Frank Gore
57. Short - Reggie Bush
58. Nelson - Willis McGahee
59. Alexander - Vincent Jackson
60. Daugherty - Jonathan Stewart

Notes: Simply put, getting Eli after Peyton is an absolute steal. Both brothers go the same baseball expert, Mr. Pouliot. … Most of the last conceivable WR1s flew off the board here, from Maclin to Bowe. Garcon and Decker are both right proper darkhorses. … Gore falls 15 spots further than he did in RW’s 8/13 mock.

ROUND 6
61. Daugherty - Torrey Smith
62. Alexander - Andrew Luck
63. Nelson - Jacob Tamme
64. Short - Kevin Smith
65. Boyer - Jermichael Finley
66. Sarris - DeSean Jackson
67. Gleeman - Reggie Wayne
68. Silva - Antonio Brown
69. Bruski - Vernon Davis
70. Nystrom - Michael Turner
71. Pouliot - Miles Austin
72. Vandermark - Stevie Johnson

Notes: Luck went 55 spots ahead of his ADP here, but honestly, it’s not crazy to believe he may produce at a sixth-round level. It was a bit crazy to take him ahead of Ben Roethlisberger, however, who fell to No. 80. … Torrey may seem like a bit of a reach at No. 61, but it’s in line with his current ADP. … Turner fell two rounds further than he did in the 8/13 mock. I say I still wouldn’t even take him in Round 6. … Mr. Nelson took Tamme well ahead of where he sits in ADP and Rotoworld’s overall rankings, and five rounds before he went in the 8/13 mock. … Wayne and Brown? Both excellent picks.

ROUND 7
73. Vandermark - C.J. Spiller
74. Pouliot - Stevan Ridley
75. Nystrom - Shonn Greene
76. Bruski - Kenny Britt
77. Silva - Peyton Hillis
78. Gleeman - Robert Meachem
79. Sarris - Donald Brown
80. Boyer - Ben Roethlisberger
81. Short - Fred Davis
82. Nelson - Beanie Wells
83. Alexander - Mark Ingram
84. Daugherty - BenJarvus Green-Ellis

Notes: He’ll need help for it to happen (read: injury or major regression for Fred Jackson), but Spiller is one of 2012’s true home run picks. I love him in Round 7. … Ridley tightened his grip on No. 1 duties this preseason, and could prove to be a real steal here. … Roethlisberger went in Round 4 of the 8/13 mock, but this is actually in line with his ADP. … A Redskins fan, D.J. could be getting a real bargain with Davis if 2011 — and not his preseason — was the sneak preview for his 2012 production. … Round 7 seems right for Britt. … To be honest, I would have taken BJGE before any of the running backs who went in this round, save for maybe Spiller. Volume runners never go out of roto style.

ROUND 8
85. Daugherty - Cedric Benson
86. Alexander - Robert Griffin III
87. Nelson - Justin Blackmon
88. Short - Greg Little
89. Boyer - DeAngelo Williams
90. Sarris - Darrius Heyward-Bey
91. Gleeman - David Wilson
92. Silva - Ryan Williams
93. Bruski - Jay Cutler
94. Nystrom - Denarius Moore
95. Pouliot - Philip Rivers
96. Vandermark - Ben Tate

Notes: If Benson has anywhere near the workhorse role he had in Cincy, he’ll be a steal here. … RGIII goes 24 spots after luck. As he should. … One of this year’s “name” sleepers, Wilson goes 15 spots above his ADP, but just five spots above his overall Rotoworld rank. It was the right place to take him. … Moore’s stock has plummeted after he failed to play a snap in the preseason, but he could very easily turn into a monster value at No. 94.

ROUND 9
97. Vandermark - Titus Young
98. Pouliot - Tony Gonzalez
99. Nystrom - Santonio Holmes
100. Bruski - Jason Witten
101. Silva - Kendall Wright
102. Gleeman - Kyle Rudolph
103. Sarris - Jacquizz Rodgers
104. Boyer - Ronnie Hillman
105. Short - Rashad Jennings
106. Nelson - Michael Bush
107. Alexander - Isaac Redman
108. Daugherty - Greg Olsen

Notes: No. 100 in ADP and No. 103 in Rotoworld’s ranks, Young went in the right spot. … Witten fell well below both his ADP and RW rank, but my guess is that it will prove to be a well-deserved plummet. … Rudolph at No. 102 seems like an absolute heist. Couldn’t believe I had let him slip by when I realized it. … As Chris Wesseling can attest, I once captained the Isaac Redman train, but it’s beginning to look like he’ll be a severe overdraft at No. 107.

ROUND 10
109. Daugherty - Brandon LaFell
110. Alexander - Rashard Mendenhall
111. Nelson - Carson Palmer
112. Short - Roy Helu
113. Boyer - Austin Collie
114. Sarris - Mike Williams
115. Gleeman - Pierre Thomas
116. Silva - Russell Wilson
117. Bruski - Toby Gerhart
118. Nystrom - Evan Royster
119. Pouliot - Malcom Floyd
120. Vandermark - Jake Locker

Notes: The Docktor took Mendenhall a whole 42 spots ahead of his Rotoworld rank, but this is the time in the draft where it’s appropriate to start searching for home runs. Mendenhall will be of little to no value during the season’s first 5-6 weeks, but could be mighty valuable come playoff time. … Helu had fallen far enough. I’m an advocate of steering entirely clear of Mike Shanahan’s backfield, but Helu at 112 is a supremely justifiable pick. … Love the Wilson pick, though it’s true boom or bust. He could be backing up Matt Flynn by Halloween. … I’ve yet to arrive at the Locker party. There might not be a less accurate quarterback this side of Tim Tebow.

ROUND 11
121. Vandermark - Jared Cook
122. Pouliot - Fortyniners Defense
123. Nystrom - Ryan Fitzpatrick
124. Bruski - Michael Crabtree
125. Silva - Eagles Defense
126. Gleeman - Brandon Pettigrew
127. Sarris - Kendall Hunter
128. Boyer - Bernard Scott
129. Short - Santana Moss
130. Nelson - Sidney Rice
131. Alexander - Nate Washington
132. Daugherty - Danny Amendola

ROUND 12
133. Daugherty - Brian Hartline
134. Alexander - Anquan Boldin
135. Nelson - Ravens Defense
136. Short - Matt Schaub
137. Boyer - Joe Flacco
138. Sarris - Lance Moore
139. Gleeman - Steelers Defense
140. Silva - Mikel Leshoure
141. Bruski - Cowboys Defense
142. Nystrom - Randy Moss
143. Pouliot - Braylon Edwards
144. Vandermark - Jermaine Gresham

ROUND 13
145. Vandermark - Brian Quick
146. Pouliot - Robert Turbin
147. Nystrom - Brent Celek
148. Bruski - Alex Green
149. Silva - Coby Fleener
150. Gleeman - Stephen Gostkowski
151. Sarris - Alfred Morris
152. Boyer - Jon Baldwin
153. Short - Seahawks Defense
154. Nelson - Martellus Bennett
155. Alexander - Dustin Keller
156. Daugherty - Jonathan Dwyer

ROUND 14 (In Progress)
157. Daugherty - Emmanuel Sanders
158. Alexander - Chris Rainer
159. Nelson - Isaiah Pead
160. Short - Alshon Jeffery
161. Boyer - Jerome Simpson
162. Sarris - Texans Defense
163. Gleeman - Christian Ponder
164. Silva -
165. Bruski -
166. Nystrom -
167. Pouliot -
168. Vandermark -

ROUND 15
169. Vandermark -
170. Pouliot -
171. Nystrom -
172. Bruski -
173. Silva -
174. Gleeman -
175. Sarris -
176. Boyer -
177. Short -
178. Nelson -
179. Alexander -
180. Daugherty -

ROUND 16
181. Daugherty -
182. Alexander -
183. Nelson -
184. Short -
185. Boyer -
186. Sarris -
187. Gleeman -
188. Silva -
189. Bruski -
190. Nystrom -
191. Pouliot -
192. Vandermark -

HacheMan · Aug 31, 2012

The Upside Index You want to make ESPN’s Matthew Berry feel old? Tell him, as I did this week, that you have been reading his material since he began his fantasy football writing career at Rotoworld nearly 15 years ago.

The league that first introduced me to fantasy football -- complete with Monday morning USA Today box-score tabulations and results that were sent via snail mail each week -- limped into its 20th anniversary draft Tuesday night.

Out of 12 high school buddies, I am the only one still unmarried and childless. Real life has trumped fantasy for the other 11 members of the Backyard All-Stars FF League, taking with it the rivalries, barbs and even draft preparation of yesteryear. How fun can a fantasy draft possibly be if half the league is consulting the Rotoworld Draft Guide for each selection?

As dinosaurs of the industry, however, Berry and I have learned valuable lessons along the way. Three of the core tenets of my philosophy are especially applicable to this column:

A). Go with your gut. It’s your team; draft the players you like. You will be surprised how often your gut steers you toward the right decision. Particularly in the first round, do not ask Chris Wesseling, Matthew Berry or Evan Silva which player you should draft. The next step is asking us to wine and dine your wife for you. Don’t be a fantasy football cuckold.

One of the maxims of legendary ex-Packers GM Ron Wolf is relevant: “It’s better to draft a player you like a round too early than miss him a round too late.” This applies to fantasy football as well. If you don’t want to kick yourself for missing out on Julio Jones’ coming out party, don’t worry about reaching for him. You’ve done your homework. It’s your hobby. Trust your instincts.

B). Exploit the industry-wide tendency toward consensus revolving around an over-emphasis on last year’s statistics. For some inexplicable reason, we have to re-learn every September that the previous year’s numbers don’t carry over.

We have two years of data on Michael Vick as the Eagles’ starting QB. In one of those years, he was the runaway fantasy MVP, putting trophies on mantles across America. The other year brought a disappointing 12th-place finish (sixth in points per-game). Since that one is the most recent of the two (click here for more insight on “recency bias”), it’s the one upon which the industry bases Vick’s expected 2012 value. Don’t fall for this trap.

C). In an offseason interview with Footballguys.com, I was asked, “What is the biggest mistake you see fantasy players make?” The answer was easy: “Drafting established mediocrities over high-risk players with major upside.”

The key to fantasy football is collecting difference-makers that give you an advantage over your opponent on a weekly basis. In the game of resource scarcity, the risk often associated with drafting these talents is worth the payoff. If you want to collect mediocrities, wait for the in-season waiver wire for a chance to pluck players on par with the ones your opponent drafted in Rounds 6-12.

Truth be told, this philosophy has long driven Rotoworld’s projections, rankings and even news bias. More so than other fantasy sites, Rotoworld has preached from the “swing for the fences” pulpit. That said, we are still obligated to perform the risk versus reward calculation on each player.

But how would a draft look if we devalued safety and mediocrity and eliminated factors such as injury risk, usage question marks and the over-emphasis on last year’s statistics? What if we drafted without regard for floor, with eyes only on the best-case scenario ceiling? Let’s give it a stab.

1. Darren McFadden, RB, Raiders - Not only was McFadden No. 1 in fantasy points when he went down in Week 7 last year, he also finished second only to Arian Foster in points per game two years ago. You could make the argument -- and then-coach Hue Jackson did -- that McFadden had already stolen Adrian Peterson’s tailback crown before their respective mid-season injuries. If you want to fall in love with McFadden, check out 2011 NFL Game Rewind clips of him and Chris Johnson back-to-back.

Any prospective McFadden owner still waffling over his injury history should pour over Frank DuPont’s polemic on “injury prone” as well as Footballguys’ Jene Bramel’s medical breakdown (podcast link, 55-60 minute mark) of the star back’s injury history.

2. Calvin Johnson, WR, Lions - I loathe fantasy football projections. They limit possibilities, stifle the imagination and are slave to the past at the expense of the future. The same people who failed to envision nearly 1,700 yards for Megatron last season will tell you that he can’t repeat the feat. Poppycock. The 200-yard performances in three of his last four games to close out the season suggest the sky is the limit.

3. Michael Vick, QB, Eagles - See introduction for explanation. Vick was the landslide fantasy MVP two years ago. Loaded with weapons and coming off the most scrimmage yards in Eagles history (for the second time in two seasons), Vick’s ceiling is the record-breaking 49 standard-scoring fantasy points dropped on the Redskins in November of 2010.

4. Chris Johnson, RB, Titans - CJ2K boasts a 2,500-yard ceiling, hasn’t missed a game in three years and appears to have recaptured pre-holdout form this summer. The question is whether the offensive line can block at a level commensurate with the 2008-09 seasons.

5. Tom Brady, QB, Patriots - Buoyed by the arrival of the second-greatest wide receiver in NFL history, Brady topped 50 touchdowns in a legendary fantasy season five years ago. Brandon Lloyd isn’t quite Randy Moss as a vertical weapon, but he doesn’t need to be. Brady is now equipped with a traditional inline tight end, slot receiver and joker tight end that may all rank among the best at their positions by the end of their respective careers.

6. Aaron Rodgers, QB, Packers - If Brady’s 2007 season isn’t statistically the best ever by quarterback, it’s because Rogers was even more lethal on a per-play basis a year ago. Brady and Peyton Manning were unable to repeat their outlier seasons, but they weren’t blessed with as many talented young offensive weapons entering the prime of their careers. Not to be overlooked is Rodgers’ scrambling ability, good for an extra 40-50 fantasy points.

7. Arian Foster, RB, Texans - Can Foster really go up from here? He’s one of just five tailbacks in history with back-to-back seasons of 1,000 yards rushing and 600 yards receiving. He’s also finished first in fantasy points per game in consecutive seasons. Even with a new right side of the offensive line, Foster has one of the highest floors in fantasy. We may have already witnessed his ceiling, however.

8. Julio Jones, WR, Falcons - Jones tops the list of impressive players witnessed by CBS Sports’ Pete Prisco in his extensive training camp tour. “If he doesn’t catch 85 passes for 1,500 yards, I will be shocked,” writes Prisco. I feel the same way. Julio is a mirror image of a young Terrell Owens, without the accompanying drama.

9. Cam Newton, QB, Panthers - Even if we expect improvement as a passer this season, it’s quite possible that Newton hit his fantasy ceiling as a rookie. In addition to shattering the rushing touchdowns record, Newton became the first quarterback in history to pass for 4,000+ yards and rush for 500+ yards. He’s not going to start this season with back-to-back 400-yard games.

10. Drew Brees, QB, Saints - If you believe in bad voodoo, the Saints certainly seem cursed in 2012. Brees may be without offensive mastermind Sean Payton this year, but he averaged 438 passing yards in the final three games of last season with OC Pete Carmichael Jr. calling the shots. Jimmy Graham and Darren Sproles are arguably the most unguardable players at their respective positions and old reliable Marques Colston still sports one of the game’s most impressive catch radii.

11. Rob Gronkowski, TE, Patriots - As I alluded to in the Tom Brady comments, Gronk has bypassed Hall of Famer Mike Ditka for the best tight-end start in NFL history. In the first 34 games of Gronkowski’s career (including the playoffs), he piled up 31 touchdowns. He’s the league’s premier red-zone weapon.

12. Matthew Stafford, QB, Lions - Finally over a November finger injury on his throwing hand, Stafford closed out the season with a per-game average of 416 yards and 3.75 touchdowns over the final month. Those numbers are so funny they hardly seem believable.

13. LeSean McCoy, RB, Eagles - Shady has emerged as perhaps the best all-around talent at his position, but he’s not going to repeat last year’s franchise record-breaking total of 20 touchdowns.

14. Ryan Mathews, RB, Chargers - The most efficient per-play starting running back in the NFL last season, Mathews’ counting stats are set to spike with Mike Tolbert out of the picture. Coach Norv Turner spent the offseason dropping hints that Mathews would break out behind the league’s heaviest workload. Remember: Turner’s primary back finished in the top-five in touches 11 times from 1991-2008.

15. DeMarco Murray, RB, Cowboys - Offensive line and injury questions aside, we caught a glimpse of Murray’s potential with a seven-game average of 136.1 scrimmage yards at nearly six yards per rush before a fractured right ankle ended his season in Week 14.

16. Jimmy Graham, TE, Saints - Why send a skinny slot receiver over the middle to get pulverized when Graham can’t be guarded by a linebacker or a safety? Although the college hoopster still has room to grow, Gronkowski has a decisive 31-19 touchdown advantage through two seasons.

17. Ray Rice, RB, Ravens - Including the playoffs, Rice has average 400+ touches over the past three seasons. Those numbers aren’t going to go up as the Ravens put more responsibilities in Joe Flacco’s hands via the no-huddle attack.

18. Adrian Peterson, RB, Vikings - Who am I to doubt this athletic freak?

19. Percy Harvin, WR, Vikings - From Week 7 -- when Christian Ponder took over as the starter -- to the end of the season, Harvin racked up 100 touches. The next closest receiver didn’t even top 75 over that span. Harvin finished as the No. 7 fantasy receiver even though his coordinator didn’t figure out how to use him until November. Over the final eight games, Harvin averaged 103.3 scrimmage yards and a touchdown on 11.3 touches per week.

20. Dez Bryant, WR, Cowboys - Barring debilitating injury or harebrained arrest, Bryant is a lock for a breakout seasons. He’s a darkhorse candidate to overtake Calvin Johnson for the most touchdowns among wideouts.

21. Steve Smith, WR, Panthers - Why? Because “89 ... bottom line.”

22. Andre Johnson, WR, Texans - Johnson isn’t going to pace the NFL in receiving yards per game as he did in three of four seasons from 2007-2010. The Texans are now a run-oriented offense.

23. Larry Fitzgerald, WR, Cardinals - Give him back Kurt Warner and I wouldn’t rule out a run at a 2,000-yard season. As it now, though, Fitz’s upside is handicapped by the league’s worst offensive and quarterback situations.

24. Marshawn Lynch, RB, Seahawks - Lynch isn’t heavily involved in the passing game, and his monster nine-game stretch to close out last season was volume-driven and unrepeatable.

25. Doug Martin, RB, Buccaneers - After decisively outplaying LeGarrette Blount, Martin is poised to enter the season as an every-down back in Greg Schiano’s run-heavy offense.

26. Fred Jackson, RB, Bills

27. Matt Forte, RB, Bears - Jackson and Forte were neck-and-neck for the NFL lead in scrimmage until injuries ended their seasons prematurely in November. Both could end up losing value to talented backups, though F-Jax remains his team’s red-zone weapon of choice. Forte is a lock to be pulled for Michael Bush at the goal line.

28. A.J. Green, WR, Bengals - Green is a bonafide top-five receiver on talent alone, but Andy Dalton hasn’t moved this offense consistently since before Thanksgiving.

29. Brandon Lloyd, WR, Patriots - There are a lot of mouths to feed in New England, but Lloyd finished as fantasy’s top receiver the last time he played a full season with Josh McDaniels calling the plays.

30. Jamaal Charles, RB, Chiefs - Charles will enter the season in a 50-50 timeshare with Peyton Hillis. His ceiling in that scenario may be limited to borderline RB1 production, but it skyrockets if Hillis goes down with an injury.

31. Steven Jackson, RB, Rams - Warrior.

32. Hakeem Nicks, WR, Giants - The G-Men’s true No. 1 receiver.

33. Trent Richardson, RB, Browns - The favorite for rookie of the year honors before an early-August knee scope, Richardson would be at least 10 spots higher if the season started closer to Halloween.

34. Jordy Nelson, WR, Packers

35. Greg Jennings, WR, Packers - Nelson’s per-game stats since the playoff blowout at Atlanta in January of 2011: 4.6 receptions, 79.4 yards and 0.85 touchdowns. Jennings’ numbers over the same span: 5.4 receptions, 75.5 yards and 0.65 touchdowns.

36. Mike Wallace, WR, Steelers - Is it debilitating for an uber-talented receiver to miss training camp practices under a new coordinator? A hamstring injury kept Kenny Britt off the field for roughly four weeks last August while Chris Palmer was installing his offense. Playing under a snap-count, Britt exploded for 14 receptions, 271 yards and three touchdowns in the first two games of the regular season.

37. Eric Decker, WR, Broncos

38. Demaryius Thomas, WR, Broncos - With Peyton Manning as his quarterback, Austin Collie was fantasy’s No. 1 receiver through six weeks before undergoing thumb surgery back in 2010. Decker is a souped-up Collie. Extrapolated over a full season, Thomas’ final seven games games would have left him as the No. 2 fantasy receiver in 2011. Never let it be said that Tim Tebow’s first read doesn’t produce fantasy numbers.

39. Antonio Gates, TE, Chargers - Gates comes in at No. 22 in Evan Silva’s Top-150.

40. Aaron Hernandez, TE, Patriots - The historic seasons of Gronkowski and Graham obscure the fact that Hernandez averaged more points per game than Jason Witten did while leading all tight ends in fantasy points two years ago.

41. Victor Cruz, WR, Giants - Eli Manning loves throwing to the receiver lining up in the slot, and Cruz finished with the third-most yards after the catch. The breakout season wasn’t a fluke, but Cruz’s five scores over 65 yards were the second-most in a season in NFL history. One-third of his fantasy value came on those five plays.

42. Roddy White, WR, Falcons

43. Matt Ryan, QB, Falcons - Ryan is this year’s best bet to go Matthew Stafford on the league in Dirk Koetter’s up-tempo offense. It’s Julio Jones, not White, who will be the offensive focal point, however. Look for White’s reception numbers to fall in line with his 2007-09 average of 85.3 as opposed to the 107.5 over the past two years while leading the NFL in targets.

44. Torrey Smith, WR, Ravens - @RotoPat has been conducting the Torrey Train all offseason, but it was Silva who first compared Smith to an early-career Roddy White, type-cast as a drop-prone deep threat but still creating “cavities of separation.” Silva suggested this week that Smith has top-10 fantasy upside if coordinator Cam Cameron sticks with the no-huddle attack used heavily in preseason action.

45. Jeremy Maclin, WR, Eagles - Maclin was on pace for 90 receptions and over 1,200 yards before shoulder and hamstring injuries limited him to 19 catches and 253 yards in the second half of last season. Beat writers and teammates spent the offseason issuing “breakout alerts” for Maclin.

46. Brandon Marshall, WR, Bears - Combing through the fawning Windy City newspaper coverage all offseason, I’m left pondering the following question: Should we play out the season or just hand the Bears the Lombardi Trophy right now?

47. Maurice Jones-Drew, RB, Jaguars - There’s a sentiment in Jacksonville that the new coaching staff had planned to increase Rashad Jennings’ role in an effort to keep Jones-Drew’s legs fresh even before the protracted holdout. After witnessing Chris Johnson’s collapse last year, I have a hard time finding the upside in drafting Jones-Drew this summer.

48. Kenny Britt, WR, Titans - See Mike Wallace’s comment.

49. Jonathan Stewart, RB, Panthers - Stewart has been one of the handful of most talented backs since he entered the league in 2008. He’s an every-week stud if an injury forces DeAngelo to sit out multiple weeks for the third time in four seasons.

50. Dwayne Bowe, WR, Chiefs - Bowe needed a perfect storm of inept defenses to rack up 15 touchdowns two seasons ago.

51. Wes Welker, WR, Patriots - Welker failed to crack 60 yards in seven of the Patriots’ final 11 games last season while Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez took over the passing game. I’m not expecting a bounce-back to early-season production for Welker now that Brandon Lloyd is also in the picture.

52. Miles Austin, WR, Cowboys

53. Vincent Jackson, WR, Buccaneers

54. Antonio Brown, WR, Steelers

55. Stevan Ridley, RB, Patriots - If BenJarvus Green-Ellis can plunge in for 24 touchdowns over two seasons in Tom Brady’s offense, Ridley should have no problem hitting double-digit scores.

56. Marques Colston, WR, Saints

57. Tony Romo, QB, Cowboys

58. Peyton Manning, QB, Broncos

59. Cedric Benson, RB, Packers - Benson’s workload won’t be heavy enough to match the late-career renaissance seasons of Stephen Davis with the Panthers in 2003 and Corey Dillon with the Patriots in 2004, but he could have that kind of rejuvenation in Green Bay.

60. Peyton Hillis, RB, Chiefs - Hillis is just as good of a bet for double-digit touchdowns as Ridley. A better comparison would be LenDale White, who derived a good portion of his 2008 value from Chris Johnson’s ability to move the ball efficiently before giving way at the goal line.

61. Sidney Rice, WR, Seahawks - Health is the only question.

62. Eli Manning, QB, Giants - Eli flirted with 5,000 yards in a career season and still wasn’t an every-week advantage at quarterback.

63. Austin Collie, WR, Colts

64. Reggie Wayne, WR, Colts

65. Andrew Luck, QB, Colts

66. Ben Roethlisberger, QB, Steelers

67. Philip Rivers, QB, Chargers

68. DeSean Jackson, WR, Eagles

69. Pierre Garcon, WR, Redskins

70. Stevie Johnson, WR, Bills

71. C.J. Spiller, RB, Bills

72. DeAngelo Williams, RB, Panthers

73. Ben Tate, RB, Texans

74. Vernon Davis, TE, 49ers

75. Justin Blackmon, WR, Jaguars

76. Kevin Smith, RB, Lions

77. Robert Griffin III, QB, Redskins

78. Denarius Moore, WR, Raiders

79. Jermichael Finley, TE, Packers

80. Ahmad Bradshaw, RB, Giants

81. David Wilson, RB, Giants

82. Mark Ingram, RB, Saints

83. Darren Sproles, RB, Saints - Sproles is not going to better his seven receiving touchdowns from a year ago.

84. Joe Flacco, QB, Ravens

85. Fred Davis, TE, Redskins

86. Willis McGahee, RB, Broncos - The Broncos aren’t going to run the ball 62 percent of the time as they did under Tim Tebow last year.

87. Reggie Bush, RB, Dolphins

88. Jason Witten, TE, Cowboys

89. Jared Cook, TE, Titans

90. Michael Turner, RB, Falcons

91. Beanie Wells, RB, Cardinals

92. Kyle Rudolph, TE, Vikings

93. Greg Olsen, TE Panthers

94. Rashad Jennings, RB, Jaguars

95. Greg Little, WR, Browns

96. Jay Cutler, QB, Bears

97. Jake Locker, QB, Titans

98. Robert Meachem, WR, Chargers

99. Roy Helu, RB, Redskins - Pick your poison.

100. Titus Young, WR, Lions

101. Michael Crabtree, WR, 49ers

102. Darrius Heyward-Bey, WR, Raiders

103. Frank Gore, RB, 49ers

104. Kendall Hunter, RB, 49ers

105. Randall Cobb, WR, Packers

106. Santonio Holmes, WR, Jets

107. Anquan Boldin, WR, Ravens

108. Kendall Wright, WR, Titans

109. Shonn Greene, RB, Jets

110. Jonathan Dwyer, RB, Steelers - If he keeps running the way he has in August, Dwyer has a good chance to lead this committee all year long.

111. Russell Wilson, QB, Seahawks

112. Donald Brown, RB, Colts

113. Randy Moss, WR, 49ers

114. Ryan Williams, RB, Cardinals

115. Mikel Leshoure, RB, Lions

116. Toby Gerhart, RB, Vikings

117. Michael Bush, RB, Bears

118. Jahvid Best, RB, Lions - Who knows? If he gains clearance by October, he’s in your starting lineup.

119. Evan Royster, RB, Redskins

120. Jacob Tamme, TE, Broncos

121. BenJarvus Green-Ellis, RB, Bengals

122. Christian Ponder, QB, Vikings

123. Malcom Floyd, WR, Chargers

124. Braylon Edwards, WR, Seahawks

125. Brandon Pettigrew, TE, Lions

126. Tony Gonzalez, TE, Falcons

127. Carson Palmer, QB, Raiders

128. Pierre Thomas, RB, Saints

129. Jacquizz Rodgers, RB, Falcons

130. Ryan Fitzpatrick, QB, Bills

131. Matt Schaub, QB, Texans

132. Josh Freeman, QB, Buccaneers

133. Shane Vereen, RB, Patriots

134. Brandon LaFell, WR, Panthers

135. Jerome Simpson, WR, Vikings

136. Jonathan Baldwin, WR, Chiefs

137. Felix Jones, RB, Cowboys

138. Robert Turbin, RB, Seahawks

139. Steve Slaton, RB, Dolphins?

140. Coby Fleener, TE, Colts

141. Taiwan Jones, RB, Raiders

142. Bernard Scott, RB, Bengals

143. Alfred Morris, RB, Redskins

144. Ronnie Hillman, RB, Broncos

145. Bryce Brown, RB, Eagles

146. Vick Ballard, RB, Colts

147. Isaiah Pead, RB, Rams

148. Rod Streater, WR, Raiders - Preaseason monster.

149. Chris Ivory, RB, Saints - Pray for a trade.

150. James Jones, WR, Packers - Pray for a trade II.

HacheMan · Sep 2, 2012

2012 injury outlook: Running backs

By Stephania Bell | ESPN.com

A preseason injury outlook for fantasy-noteworthy running backs. This column has been updated throughout the summer. A final addendum for each relevant player was posted on Sept. 1.

Adrian Peterson, Minnesota Vikings: The injury was devastating when it happened -- a torn left ACL and MCL that left Peterson shaking on the ground -- but his recovery has been nothing short of amazing. Starting with his ability to get to surgery quickly, Peterson has met or exceeded every target along the way. Given that his injury was so late in the 2011 season (Week 16), no one anticipated Peterson would realistically be in the mix for Week 1 in 2012. His progress to date allows for that possibility.

Still, despite the fact that Peterson has incorporated agility drills and has beaten his teammates in wind sprints, he has multiple hurdles to cross before he can be declared ready to start the season on time. Every time he increases his activity or incorporates something new, he and the medical staff must evaluate how his knee responds. One of the final things an athlete regains after an injury such as this is the proprioception in his knee, essentially the innate sense of understanding where the limb is in space and the confidence to rely on it without hesitation. The key for the athlete is getting to the point of playing football with the focus being more on the game than on how the knee will respond.

If anyone possesses the combined athleticism and work ethic to pull this off, it would be Peterson, but the definitive answer about his status might not come until just before the season begins.

Addendum (Aug. 16): Much to his delight, Peterson was recently removed from the active/PUP list and was cleared for a return to practice. On Sunday, he participated in the team walkthrough. On Tuesday, he was running through various drills, notably with no brace on his surgically-repaired left knee. While he has been kept from contact thus far, ESPN 1500 Twin Cities reports that could possibly change next week. All of this certainly points toward the possibility that Peterson could (emphasis on "could") return for Week 1. There is still the issue of testing how he responds to traffic, getting legs tangled with teammates and, if he sees preseason action, testing his reaction responses and timing along with the contact of an opponent. Even if he does get clearance to play in Week 1, expect the Vikings to ease him into a return in terms of both ball touches and total playing time. They have been pragmatic with his recovery every step of the way; that is not going to change just because the season officially launches.

Addendum (Aug. 21): The Minneapolis Star-Tribune reports Peterson will not play in this week's preseason game, or the one after that. Perhaps the Vikings have been watching preseason games from around the league and have decided they do not want to take a chance with their star running back. Peterson remains just shy of eight months removed from major ligament reconstruction on his left knee, so the hesitation to return him to game play is understandable. After all, he still needs to experience more progressive exposure to contact in practice. While the indications are that Peterson is on schedule to potentially return for Week 1, it still seems most likely that he will be returned to action on a gradual basis.

Addendum (Sept. 1): Coach Leslie Frazier says AP is likely to be a gametime decision for Week 1. According to ESPN1500 Twin Cities, the Vikings will wait to see how Peterson tolerates another week of practice. "I doubt that we would know without getting him through an entire week if we thought he were ready to play in a football game," Frazier said. It would not be surprising if Peterson suits up and is active for the game but even if he does play, it still appears the Vikings will ease him into a normal workload over the early part of the season.

Jamaal Charles, Kansas City Chiefs: "When they let that cape off me, I'm ready to go." That's what Charles told the Kansas City Star during June minicamp, signaling there are no doubts on his part about his readiness for the season.

Charles suffered a season-ending ACL injury in Week 2 and has been champing at the bit to get back. Last fall, Charles often tweeted updates about his progress and suggested he was ahead of schedule in his rehab.

But the news that he could be cleared to participate fully in training camp could be the best indicator yet that he will start the 2012 season on time. If an NFL player is going to tear his ACL, at least sustaining the injury early in the season provides more cushion for ensuring a timely start the subsequent year. While there are players returning at an even quicker pace with the advancements of rehabilitation and a dedicated work ethic (such as Peterson), there is more comfort with the timetable of a player such as Charles, who will have been rehabbing for approximately 10 months by the time camp gets under way.

That said, expectations for a running back in his first year back from ACL surgery should be tempered, as history has shown it often takes until the second year to return to pre-injury form. Charles does not plan on waiting that long, however. As he told the Star, "I'm ready to put my cleats back on and punish everybody in my way."

Addendum (Sept. 1): Charles has held up well in the preseason, reacquainted himself with playing in games and even taking contact to his surgically-repaired knee. It doesn't appear he will have any limitations heading into the season.

Rashard Mendenhall, Pittsburgh Steelers: Mendenhall is one of many players who suffered a torn ACL last season, but the injury happened so late (Week 17) that it was literally this calendar year (on Jan. 1). There have been various reports on Mendenhall's status, ranging from suggestions that he might miss 2012 entirely to his potential availability for Week 1.

At the time of this writing, it appears most likely that he will fall somewhere in between. The Steelers likely will see the return of Mendenhall, but it would not be surprising if that return is delayed, perhaps leading to six weeks on the physically unable to perform list. Mendenhall has been working out individually during organized team activities and insists he will be playing at some point this season, but as to when that will be, nothing is certain.

Addendum (Aug. 22): In a somewhat surprising move, Mendenhall was activated from the PUP list last week. Had he begun the season on the PUP list, he would not have been available for six weeks. His activation should not suggest, however, that he will be ready much sooner. The move appears to have been performed in an effort to increase his workload by integrating him into more aggressive football activity. Steelers general manager Kevin Colbert told the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, "The trainers felt that he had progressed as far as he could in doing what they were doing and the kid felt confident that he was ready to take the next step." Mendenhall is still recovering at an impressive pace given how late in the season his injury occurred. Still, given the difference in activity level between individual workouts and team drills, including initial contact on his surgically repaired knee and having to react in real time, there is a ways to go before Mendenhall will be game-ready.

In the meantime, teammate Isaac Redman has been dealing with what has been termed both a groin and a hip problem (they are often inter-related). After undergoing an MRI late last week, the most significant news was that he would not need surgery. Redman told the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review Tuesday that the issue was, in fact, his hip and although he has returned to practice he is still exercising caution. "I'm trying to do what I can do without triggering it, without making it worse," Redman said. "Hopefully, I can just keep getting better and better and not have a setback." Neither Redman nor the Steelers have offered any specifics as to which structure(s) is/are involved, but the avoidance of surgery suggests no major damage to the hip labrum. Still, his guardedness in practice warrants some concern, especially given Mendenhall's status. It's not yet clear whether Redman will play again in the preseason.

Addendum (Sept. 1): Despite being activated from the PUP list two weeks ago, Mendenhall's work in practice has been limited. It still appears that it will be several weeks into the season before he is activated. In the meantime, teammate Isaac Redman says his hip has been feeling better but he missed practice early this week because of an ankle injury. All of this perhaps has opened the door a little wider for Jonathan Dwyer who saw significant action in the team's preseason finale. After the game, coach Mike Tomlin told reporters, "He was the primary ball carrier, and that's kind of what we wanted to see," adding that Dwyer came to camp in "good physical condition." (Translation: healthy and ready to play). On the Steelers' official website, Bob Labriola stated the preseason finale "served as a sign the team found itself a starting running back." At the very least the injury situation in Pittsburgh has set up the possibility of a mix at running back.

Darren McFadden, Oakland Raiders: Lisfranc injuries can vary in severity, and not all require surgical stabilization. But the affected region of the foot must heal adequately in order to allow proper load transfer from the rear foot to the front foot. If that does not happen, the area can remain painful, making it difficult to push off and pivot. Improper healing can cause the joint to become arthritic down the road.

McFadden acknowledged it has been a long road to recovery, but he has declared himself fully healthy. The proof seems to be in the work he is doing on the field. New coach Dennis Allen told the San Francisco Chronicle during OTAs in May that McFadden looked to be running at full speed without limitation.

This was not McFadden's first lower extremity injury. In fact, he has never played more than 13 games in a season, having missed time because of hamstring, knee and toe injuries, along with this latest foot injury. McFadden remains upbeat heading into 2012 despite the evidence documenting his struggles to stay on the field. His talent is unquestionable, but neither is his risk.

Addendum (Sept. 1): After an outstanding training camp and preseason, there is not much new to add about McFadden. The talent has been confirmed and he will start the season as perhaps the running back with the highest potential but until sixteen games have passed the question remains: Can he finish?

Fred Jackson, Buffalo Bills: Jackson's season came to an end sooner than he would have liked after he suffered a broken right fibula, the skinny lower leg bone that forms the outer part of the ankle, in Week 11. Jackson has fully healed from his injury but told reporters in May that he still had a ways to go to get into football shape. The good news is he can participate in all the activities necessary to get him there.

Beanie Wells and Ryan Williams, Arizona Cardinals: Wells has been a nemesis for fantasy owners since he came into the league, as he has held the dreaded "game-time decision" status perhaps more than any of his peers. In 2011, a nagging right knee made him an on-again, off-again option who could not be counted on to play a full game yet could explode for huge yardage at any time. He underwent an arthroscopic surgery in the offseason. While no specific surgical procedure was announced by the Cardinals, Wells, when asked if the surgery was to address a meniscus, cryptically told the Arizona Republic his surgery was "a little more complicated." It is worth noting that a variety of surgical conditions can be addressed through a scope, which describes merely the tool used during surgery (an arthroscope) rather than the surgery itself (such as meniscus repair, cartilage debridement, etc.). We are left to wonder exactly what Wells meant by those remarks.

Regardless of what procedure Wells had, coach Ken Whisenhunt is not leaving any room for doubt as to what he needs to do before camp. According to the Arizona Republic, Whisenhunt indicated Wells has his work cut out for him.

"He's got to bust his tail over the next few weeks to be ready for training camp, because we've had some guys look good there," Whisenhunt said.

Whisenhunt needs Wells to get ready, because Williams may not be able to start the season on time. Williams never saw the field last year after he tore his patellar tendon during the preseason. He has worked diligently in rehab across the entire year but has still been relegated to the sideline for the bulk of OTAs. This issue is him regaining the strength in his injured quadriceps muscle to function at a competitive level and protect his knee going forward, a very slow process following this type of injury. Williams believes he could be ready by Game 1, but it's no guarantee.

Addendum (Aug. 22): Wells came off the PUP list and began practicing with the team two weeks ago. He has gradually been increasing his activity in practice and the Cardinals now expect him to see some game action Thursday. Various reports have indicated that he has still appeared limited by that knee in practice, including ESPN NFC West blogger Mike Sando, who noted Wells still seemed to be favoring his knee as recently as this week. Wells will likely see limited action, but it's important for him to get back out on the field.

Williams saw his first NFL action in the Cardinals' second preseason game. He carried the ball five times for 25 yards and got himself a touchdown. Nice way to be welcomed into the league, especially coming off a devastating injury. While he is still in the final phases of recovery from the torn patellar tendon, his progress bodes well for him to be ready to go at the start of the season. He may not be ready to take on a huge workload out of the gate, but he could certainly nudge Wells for time as the season develops.

Addendum (Sept. 1): Wells was able to see action in two preseason games, a good sign that he is ready to begin the season. Given the Cardinals' overall challenges on offense, it's hard to read too much into what can be expected from Wells. His ability to stay healthy during the season will be the question.

Jahvid Best and Mikel Leshoure, Detroit Lions: Best missed the final 10 games of the 2011 season as a result of a concussion, and to put it simply, that was not his first head injury. While playing football at Cal, Best suffered a scary-looking injury when he launched into the end zone and landed awkwardly on his head and neck. He recovered and returned to play, but when this latest event took place, many flashed back to the college injury.

Best says he is symptom-free and fully recovered. He has been cleared for football-related activities but not for contact. Reports out of Detroit OTAs and minicamps indicate the Lions are pleased with what Best has been able to do so far. He hopes to be cleared for contact in advance of training camp. With Best's history of concussion and dual turf toe injuries, which affected his performance in 2010, Best must show he is healthy enough to stay on the field. Until he has resumed full activity -- including contact and game play -- without incident, it is too soon to say the injuries are completely behind him.

Leshoure missed his entire NFL rookie season after tearing his Achilles tendon during the preseason. Although he has participated, to some degree, in OTAs, he is still working toward full recovery. He has taken part in team drills during minicamp and recently began pressing his speed and making cuts on his surgically repaired leg.

One of the keys for an athlete returning from injury is forgetting about the involved body part and simply playing the game. Leshoure's comments to the media after mid-June minicamp practice hint that he is getting there.

"I wasn't thinking about anything out there, just going out there playing and reacting," Leshoure said.

Given the timetable for recovery from this type of procedure, it's certainly feasible that Leshoure could be ready by the start of the 2012 season, or at least after he serves an NFL-mandated suspension in Weeks 1 and 2.

The critical factor will be whether Leshoure can regain the speed and explosiveness that made him so attractive to the Lions in the first place. Broncos wide receiver Demaryius Thomas returned from a similar injury last season and showed it was indeed possible, so Leshoure should feel encouraged.

Given the challenges the Lions have had fielding a squad of healthy running backs, the sight of both Best and Leshoure in camp, even if their activity is controlled, is encouraging. Whether they will be in top form when the season gets under way remains to be seen.

Addendum (Aug. 16): ESPN's Adam Schefter reports that Best is likely to start the season on the PUP list, meaning he would be unavailable for at least the first six games. This does not come as much of a surprise since Best has not been cleared for contact since the start of training camp. Although Best has maintained that he is symptom-free, there is some information the medical staff has which is causing them to continue to restrict his activity. There is no predictability here in terms of if or when Best will be able to progress.

In the meantime, Leshoure has been bothered by a right hamstring strain since virtually the start of camp. Any opportunity to see how he was recovering from his left Achilles repair was lost for the bulk of training camp, although Leshoure returned for a portion of practice Wednesday. It's unclear when he will be able to return to full practice and game play. For now, Kevin Smith remains the leader on the team's running back depth chart.

Addendum (Sept. 1): Best has officially been placed on the PUP list to start the season. It's important to note that this means he will miss at least the first six weeks and there are no guarantees that he will return at the end of that time period. LeShoure has been able to get a bit of preseason action under his belt, most notably in the finale where he ran for 43 yards and a score. The Detroit Free Press described him as "evasive, electric and effective." His performance went a long way in proving he has recovered nicely from his injuries but now he must sit for his two week suspension and he cannot practice with the team during that time. That leaves the starting job to Kevin Smith for Week 1, the same Smith who has had several notable injuries in the past and already suffered an ankle sprain during the preseason. The sprain, according to Smith, was just a "minor tweak," but it's still enough to raise concerns about how he'll hold up to a full workload, at least for the first two weeks.

DeMarco Murray and Felix Jones, Dallas Cowboys: Murray fractured his right ankle and suffered a high ankle sprain in December, ending his impressive rookie season early. After undergoing surgery to stabilize the ankle, Murray embarked on a rehab program and was running by February. As early as May, Murray was telling reporters the ankle felt great and that he was 100 percent.

The Cowboys seem to agree with his assessment. Running backs coach Skip Peete observed Murray during OTAs and told the Dallas Morning News, "I don't see any ill effects of his ankle injury from this past season."

Jones, meanwhile, has been challenged by a variety of injuries in his young career, and 2011 was no different. He injured his right shoulder early in the season and later suffered a left high ankle sprain and a hamstring strain. In the offseason, Jones underwent surgery on his shoulder, and he has not participated in OTAs or minicamp activities. It is not yet clear whether he will have recovered to the point of being able to participate fully in training camp.

From the look of things, the Cowboys' primary RB job is shaping up to be Murray's. The University of Oklahoma product impressed when Jones went down last season and seems to be recovering more swiftly. The Cowboys still will find touches for the explosive Jones, but staying healthy has clearly presented an obstacle for him.

Addendum (Sept. 1): Murray has had a strong camp and preseason. His touches have been limited primarily due to the fact that the Cowboys have already racked up so many injury concerns, they are protecting him for the regular season. Meanwhile Jones has been present but underwhelming this preseason. Coming off shoulder surgery appears to have had him a bit behind as far as football conditioning but the good news is he seems to be off to a healthy start for the season.

Knowshon Moreno, Denver Broncos: Add Moreno to the list of running backs recovering from ACL reconstruction surgery. Moreno tore his right ACL in November and has been participating in OTAs this spring. Moreno wants to prove not only that he can come back healthy from this, but also that he can stay healthy, something he has not been able to do so far in his career. Moreno has battled repeated hamstring and groin strains, and even when not missing complete games, he has at times struggled to complete games, which is every fantasy owner's nightmare.

Addendum (Aug. 16): Moreno returned to full practice with the Broncos and even took part in the team's first preseason game (5 carries, 20 yards; 1 reception, 6 yards). While he acknowledges he does not yet feel 100 percent recovered, his clearance for full activity and game action is a huge step forward.

Addendum (Sept. 1): Moreno did enough in the preseason to earn himself a final roster spot with the Broncos, something that was not guaranteed when training camp opened. He is still working his way back from his ACL surgery and Willis McGahee is the unquestioned starter, but Moreno is making gains and could see more work as the season progresses.

Ryan Mathews, Chargers: In the Chargers' first preseason game, Mathews left the game after being tackled on his first run and did not return. The grim news that Mathews suffered a broken clavicle, or collarbone, came soon afterward. He underwent surgery to repair the fracture Friday, and the team has issued a projected return of four to six weeks.

Broken clavicles are not uncommon in football as they typically occur when the shoulder is driven into the ground on a tackle or after a hard landing on the shoulder (the result is either a shoulder separation or a clavicle fracture, depending upon where the force is). They are common in offensive players, such as quarterbacks (Tony Romo, Matt Leinart), wide receivers (Marques Colston and Riley Cooper, who incidentally fractured his on July 28 of this year in camp, had surgery and is projected by the Eagles to miss six weeks) and running backs. (Adrian Peterson suffered this injury in his junior year of college, and it raised some concern about his durability before the draft. Of note, he did not have surgery, missed seven games, returned to play in the Fiesta Bowl and suffered another fracture. Ultimately that injury healed on its own.) Although Colston missed only three weeks after his injury, Romo's was season-ending -- he was injured in late October and missed eleven games -- and it was his non-throwing side. Colston had surgery; Romo did not.

Despite the relatively common occurrence of these injuries, the timetable to full health can vary greatly. Given that the clavicle does not always heal well, athletes in contact sports often undergo surgery nowadays to help stabilize the injury and promote quicker recovery. Factors that can influence the severity of the injury include the location of the fracture within the bone (the midshaft of the clavicle is more commonly broken and often less problematic than the end near the shoulder, for instance), whether the fracture was displaced (whether the bony ends remained in alignment or not), and whether there were multiple fragments (more often seen in high-speed accidents). None of this information has been made available regarding Mathews' injury.

Fracture healing typically is about six weeks, and, before a player is cleared to resume contact, there must be sufficient evidence of bony repair to alleviate concerns of reinjury. Every fall onto the shoulder, direct hit to the shoulder (especially if the player is hit from both sides simultaneously), even a stiff-arm move, will translate force through the collarbone area. For an athlete such as Mathews, who will incur contact through his clavicle (directly or indirectly) on virtually every play in which he carries the ball, the confidence that the bone will remain intact must be high before allowing him to compete.

Mathews should be able to maintain his cardiovascular conditioning but will be limited with respect to upper-extremity weights initially. This is not like a knee or ankle injury, in which his ability to perform well enough could be in jeopardy; once he is cleared to return, he should be able to pick up where he left off. Unfortunately for Mathews, this latest injury does nothing to increase confidence that he'll stay up once he picks back up.

Addendum (Sept. 1): Despite his best intentions and proclamations that he expects to play in Week 1, Mathews is still subject to the same healing parameters as other humans. If his collarbone has not progressed to the stage where the team is confident he can avoid re-injury, he will not play. All signs are pointing to him having a delayed start and the San Diego Union-Tribune reports he is expected to miss Week 1. Normal bone healing takes approximately six weeks which, given Mathews' injury date, would suggest he could be ready by Week 3. The situation remains fluid however and Mathews is certainly keeping up his conditioning in the meantime. Once he is cleared by the medical staff he should hit the ground running.

Roy Helu and Tim Hightower, Redskins: Not long after Helu rushed four times in the Redskins' preseason opener, we learned that he was dealing with Achilles tendinitis. Initial reports identified it as a problem in his left Achilles tendon, and according to the Washington Post, this was not Helu's first episode of symptoms. "I've had it in the past, but not to where it is now," he said.

Given that Helu missed some offseason workouts with soft-tissue injuries, there was some cause for concern about his health heading into the season. That concern went up a notch with the news this week that Helu has been experiencing soreness in both Achilles tendons. Helu has been limited in his workouts, and coach Mike Shanahan told the Washington Examiner that Helu would not be able to play in a game right now. His status for the opener is uncertain, but the bigger concern is that if this is a problem now after just a few weeks of practice, it's unlikely to completely resolve as the season progresses. At best, it appears the Achilles tendinitis will be something Helu must manage this year.

Meanwhile, Hightower continues his recovery from ACL reconstruction. He suffered his injury about halfway through the 2011 season. As of late July, the Washington Post had reported Hightower was still moving with a slight limp. He has since made enough progress to join in on team drills, and he progressed to full pads just this week. Still, just as all backs returning from ACL surgery, Hightower will need to gradually increase his activity to return to game action.

That game action will be initiated Saturday, Aug. 25, as Hightower makes his debut in the Redskins' third preseason contest. Hightower hopes to be ready by Week 1 -- how he responds to Saturday's action will be telling - but that is not a lock. Even if he's able to suit up, it does not appear he will be taking a full complement of snaps.

Thus far in the preseason, Evan Royster appeared to be the frontrunner for the starting job in Washington. Then he also suffered an injury. On Thursday, the Washington Examiner reported that coach Mike Shanahan plans for Royster to sit out this week because of a knee injury sustained a few days ago. Apparently Royster awoke mid-week with a sore knee, but an MRI was negative. It doesn't sound as if he will miss much time, and by the season opener, Royster could still be the lead candidate to start. Still, the Redskins have to be at least a bit concerned about the injury issues manifesting themselves so early in the season. It may be yet another sign that there will continue to be a rotation of running backs in DC.

Addendum (Sept. 1): The Redskins cleared up their murky backfield situation a little bit when they released Tim Hightower during final roster cuts. Helu seems to be faring much better as far as his bilateral Achilles are concerned. He was able to run for 90 yards and two touchdowns in the team's preseason finale and there have been no reports (yet) of any postgame setback. It certainly appears he is ready to start the season but it doesn't mean this won't become an issue again at some point during the year.

Jonathan Stewart, Panthers: It seems like Stewart has battled various foot and ankle injuries during his college and professional career, most notably an ongoing Achilles issue that required surgery two years ago, but he has played all 16 games in three of his four seasons in the league. In Sunday night's game (Aug. 26), he added a right ankle sprain to the mix.

Reports Monday indicate that X-rays of the ankle were negative. According to the Charlotte Observer, coach Ron Rivera does not believe Stewart suffered a high ankle sprain. Rivera points out they will be "careful with it," and Stewart will not play in the Panthers' final preseason game Thursday night. Without knowing the degree of injury and a few more details, it's difficult to project whether or not Stewart will be ready for Week 1, but at this point, nothing beyond Thursday has been ruled out.

Addendum (Sept. 1): Stewart was held out of the Panthers' final preseason game, as expected, but otherwise there have been no major updates as to the status of his ankle. According to the Charlotte News and Observer, coach Ron Rivera said Stewart's sprain is not severe but his practice status will bear watching heading into Week 1.

HacheMan · Sep 3, 2012

2012's Winning Solution
Last season, Ed Williams and Jeff Baldwin picked against the spread all season long in Rotoworld's award-winning Season Pass. They kicked things off last year with a sneak peak column where they picked over/unders on win totals for six teams before kickoff, and they're back at it again this season. Once the season starts, Ed will try to exact revenge on Jeff for last year's beating as they'll pick their top five games and one over/under in the Season Pass. You can also check out Jeff on Twitter @jeffbaldwin4 for his daily picks. Without further ado, here are the over/unders.

Tampa Buccaneers – Over/Under 5.5
Ed: Last year, the Tampa Buccaneers severely underperformed, and Raheem Morris lost his job as head coach as a result. Now no-nonsense Greg Schiano from Rutgers is at the helm, and he won’t put up with the effort the Bucs put forth on the field last season. They drafted Doug Martin in the first round of the draft, and he’s already leapt ahead of LeGarrette Blount on the depth chart and will be starting in Week 1. An improved running game should help Josh Freeman get back on track, and with his ability to scramble, he should be a dangerous weapon. They’ll be playing the NFC East and the AFC West this season, but they’re other two non-division games on the schedule are very winnable as they’ll play the Vikings and Rams. There aren’t a lot of cupcakes on the schedule, but there are plenty of winnable games, and the addition of Schiano as the head coach should result in at least a couple of extra wins, which would put them at six, which is good enough to hit the over.
Pick: Over 5.5 wins

Buffalo Bills - Over/Under 7.5
Jeff: The Bills significantly upgraded their defense with the signing of DE Mario Williams and drafting CB Stephen Gilmore in the first round. Williams will provide pressure on the opposing quarterback which has been lacking for quite some time in Buffalo. Gilmore looks like the real deal and worthy of a first round selection. He is projected to start Week 1 against the Jets. Offensively, a healthy, underrated Fred Jackson returns after an injury ended his season a year ago. C.J. Spiller will also be in the mix for carries as he came on strong last year when Jackson went down. Ryan Fitzpatrick will rely heavily on Stevie Johnson through the air. I think the Bills take great strides this year and surprise some people.
Pick: Over 7.5 wins

Cincinnati Bengals – Over/Under 8
Ed: While the Bucs underperformed last season, the Bengals shocked everyone by going 9-7 and making the playoffs. This year, they won’t be sneaking up on anyone. Andy Dalton exceeded everyone’s expectations at quarterback, but don’t be surprised to see him endure a sophomore slump. He still has the uber-talented A.J. Green to chuck the ball to, but after that his options are limited. Jermaine Gresham can be productive at tight end, but after that, it’s a bunch of question marks. The Bengals let Cedric Benson go, and now have a tandem of BenJarvus Green-Ellis and Bernard Scott in the backfield, which won’t instill fear into very many opponents. The defense should be very good once again, but the struggle to score will do this squad in. The Bengals need to feast on a fairly easy early schedule because things get very tough as the season wears on. They’re final five games will all be very tough as they’ll be at San Diego, vs. Dallas, at Philadelphia, at Pittsburgh and vs. Baltimore. If the Bengals stumble early, there’s not chance they’ll hit eight wins.
Pick: Under 8 wins

Houston Texans - Over/Under 9.5
Jeff: The Texans were on their way to making a Super Bowl run last year until Matt Schaub went down with a season-ending injury. To their credit, the Texans still won a home playoff game with their third-string quarterback, but only to come up short at Baltimore a week later. This season, Schaub is back along with one of the best running backs in the league in Arian Foster. Also, the Texans have been taking it easy with WR Andre Johnson throughout the preseason, but all signs point to him being ready for Week 1. The Texans' defense, led by J.J. Watt, looks to build off its impressive performance last season. This could be the year the Texans make it to the Super Bowl if they can stay healthy. Going against the 29th easiest strength of schedule in the league, look for them to get about 11 wins on the year.
Pick: Over 9.5 wins

Seattle Seahawks – Over/Under 7.5
Ed: Injuries were a major issue for the Seahawks last season, and the quarterback situation was one of the worst in the league. While the offseason solved much of the health issues, quarterback is still a question mark. Unlike last season, though, there’s plenty of upside this year. After dazzling everyone in the preseason, rookie Russell Wilson won the starting job over free agent acquisition Matt Flynn. The dynamic Wilson will keep defenses guessing with his ability to run, and he’ll also have Sidney Rice back on the field. Marshawn Lynch signed a brand new contract, so he’s the primary focus in the backfield, which should give the offense plenty of stability. The Seahawks have been building a young but very talented defense over the last couple of seasons, and the strategy looks to be paying off. Look for continued improvement by that unit. The Seahawks have to play the tough NFC North, but they also drew the relatively weak AFC East, so in addition to getting four games against the Rams and Cardinals, Seattle should be able to get over 7.5 wins fairly easily.
Pick: Over 7.5 wins

San Francisco 49ers - Over/Under 9
Jeff: The 49ers were one game away from making it to the Super Bowl a year ago. Their offseason priority was to get QB Alex Smith more offensive weapons. The additions of Randy Moss, Mario Manningham, Brandon Jacobs and LaMichael James fit that need and will give this offense more versatility and explosiveness. Smith will look to build off a productive 2011 and lead his team back to a NFC West title and a deep playoff run. Defensively, there are not many teams out there better than the 49ers. Led by Patrick Willis and Justin Smith, I see this unit only getting better, as scary as that sounds. The 49ers do have some tough road games this season, including visits to the Packers, Saints and the Patriots. Matching their 13 win total from a year ago will be very tough, but I still think the 49ers will get to 10 or 11 wins for the year.
Pick: Over 9 wins

Houston Texans – Over/Under 9.5
Ed: The Texans finished last season with a 10-6 record, and that’s with them losing their last three games after losing Matt Schaub to injury. Schaub will be back under center when the Texans kick off Sunday, but more importantly Arian Foster will be leading the way in the backfield once again. Foster has become one of the most feared running backs in the game, and with the zone-blocking scheme of the offensive line, it’s almost impossible to stop him. And even if Foster gets dinged up, Ben Tate has proven to be one of the most talented backups in the league. Andre Johnson is back at full strength at wide receiver, although at this point of his career, he’s a constant injury risk. Despite trading away linebacker DeMeco Ryans, Houston should remain a solid defensive team as well. Houston will play the competitive NFC South and AFC North, but their two extra games are very winnable against the Dolphins and Raiders. If Houston can feast on their own division, which shouldn’t be too much to ask, the Texans should get to at least 10 wins again this season.
Pick: Over 9.5 wins

San Diego Chargers - Over/Under 9
Jeff: The 2011 Chargers were a major disappointment finishing at 8-8. I just don't see how this team finishes any better this year. Philip Rivers' performance a year ago, including a career-high 20 interceptions, has to be concerning. Plus, I'm seeing much of the same from him in this year's preseason games. It doesn't appear that his arm strength is what it used to be. In addition, throw in the loss of his favorite target WR Vincent Jackson and injuries to WR Vincent Brown and RB Ryan Mathews, and there is a lot for this team to overcome before the season has even started. On a positive note, TE Antonio Gates has declared himself in the best shape of his career. He will be a target machine this year. With the Broncos and Chiefs getting more competitive in the AFC West, and matchups with the Saints, Ravens and Steelers, look for the Chargers only to manage 7 or 8 wins on the 2012 season.
Pick: Under 9 wins

Kansas City Chiefs – Over/Under 8
Ed: Originally, I was thinking eight wins would be a lot to expect from the Chiefs. But after examining the schedule, and looking more closely at the roster, especially the returning players, the Chiefs could be sneaking up on a lot of people this year. Running back Jamaal Charles and safety Eric Berry will both be back after ACL injuries, and the Chiefs went out and got tackle Eric Winston to bolster the offensive line and bruising running back Peyton Hillis to play behind Charles. Hillis’ presence will allow Charles to work his way back to full speed at his own pace and also prevent him from getting worn down. The explosive Dexter McCluster will likely see time at both running back and wide receiver, and QB Matt Cassel has Dwayne Bowe back after holding out for much of the preseason. From Week 11 on, the Chiefs have very winnable games against the Bengals, Broncos, Panthers, Browns, Raiders, Colts and Broncos again. Look for the Chiefs to win at least five of those seven, which means they’ll need just four more wins to hit the over.
Pick: Over 8 wins

Miami Dolphins - Over/Under 7
Jeff: I took under in wins in this column a season ago with the Dolphins. I think it is going to be very difficult for them to match their 6-win total from 2011. Rookie QB Ryan Tannehill has been named the starter. Tannehill will be a solid professional QB at some point, but I think this year he will struggle due to the lack of playmakers at the WR position, and the fact that he is a rookie. The departure of both Brandon Marshall and Chad Johnson has left this offense in shambles. Tough not to think opposing defenses won't lock down on RB Reggie Bush as he seems to be the lone playmaker in this offense. The defense was actually solid finishing 6th in the NFL a year ago in points allowed at 19.6. The Dolphins' lack of offense should put a tremendous amount of pressure on their defense. I think it is going to be another long season in South Beach.
Pick: Under 7 wins

Oakland Raiders – Over/Under 7.5
Ed: Some people are high on the Raiders this year, and there are reasons for some optimism. Darren McFadden, when healthy, is one of the top running backs in the league. The only problem with that is the fact that he hasn’t made it through a full season without sustaining an injury yet. The Raiders also have some young talent at wide receiver with Denarius Moore and Darrius Heyward-Bey, but they’re relatively unproven and have the aging Carson Palmer throwing them the ball. Palmer put up decent fantasy numbers in the second half of last season, but I wouldn’t be shocked in the slightest to see a regression this year. If a team like the Chiefs takes a step up like I’m predicting, then it’s only natural another AFC West team will take a step back. Look for that to be the Raiders, as they’ll be under 7.5 wins.
Pick: Under 7.5 wins

New York Jets - Over/Under 8.5
Jeff: The Jets didn't address their glaring needs in the offseason. Shonn Greene isn't the answer at running back, the offensive line could have been bolstered, and the wide receiver position lacks depth after Santonio Holmes. Instead, they trade for QB Tim Tebow after re-signing their starting QB Mark Sanchez. It is hard not to think this season won't be an adventure for the Jets. It is going to be very difficult for the Jets to succeed this year with the limited offensive playmakers on their team. On the other side of the ball, the defense will be solid. However, I don't think they are as good as previous years, and their offense could put a lot of pressure on them to keep them in games. The beginning of the 2012 schedule is very difficult, which includes playing the likes of the Steelers, 49ers and Texans. I don't see this team winning 9 games.
Pick: Under 8.5 wins

HacheMan · Sep 4, 2012

Matchup: Cowboys @ Giants
Wednesday Night Opener

Dallas @ NY Giants

Dez Bryant has at least 70 yards and/or a touchdown in all of his four career meetings with the G-Men, and is the premier fantasy start on either side in Wednesday night's NFL opener. A safe bet for double-digit targets with Jason Witten (spleen) likely to be inactive and Miles Austin just now back from a four-week hamstring injury, Bryant is also facing a New York secondary that lost top RCB Terrell Thomas (ACL) for the year, and top backup Prince Amukamara (high ankle sprain) until Week 2 at the earliest. Filling in is 28-year-old journeyman Michael Coe, who's played in 27 career games without a single start. It's possible the Giants will shadow Bryant with top corner Corey Webster, although Webster plays the majority of his snaps at LCB, and Bryant runs most of his pass patterns down the opposite end of the field. Austin's return also may discourage the Giants from using Webster to follow Bryant around the formation. ... In regard to fantasy players returning from injury layoffs as lengthy as Austin's, I usually approach them on a "prove-it" basis. I want to see them last four quarters healthy before starting them. I think Austin is a dicey WR3.

In Tony Romo's last eight regular season matchups with the Giants, he's completed 164-of-241 passes (68%) for 2,004 yards (8.3 YPA), 21 touchdowns, and six interceptions with two additional rushing scores. He has a 10:1 TD-to-INT ratio in the last four. Romo is a quality mid-range to low-end QB1 start on Wednesday night. ... Dallas' tight ends and third-receiver committee should be avoided in Week 1 fantasy lineups, but keep an eye on Dwayne Harris. He's flashed playmaking ability in back-to-back preseasons and could emerge as a WR3 later on if he clearly passes Cole Beasley and Kevin Ogletree. ... The Giants' upfield-focused defensive scheme lends itself more to quarterback disruption than run stoppage and is exposable by running backs who don't waste steps behind the line of scrimmage. DeMarco Murray runs decisively and shouldn't struggle to exceed 20 all-purpose touches against the Giants. Murray should be locked into fantasy lineups.

Eli Manning's last six games against Dallas: 145-of-226 (64.2%) for 1,996 yards (8.83 YPA), 15 touchdowns, and seven interceptions. Historical stats favor Romo head to head, but Eli is a fine back-end QB1 in his own right Wednesday. ... Despite missing early-week practices with recurring foot soreness, Hakeem Nicks vows to play 60 snaps against Dallas and has the best matchup of New York's receivers. Nicks most often squares off with right corners, and the Cowboys' RCB is Morris Claiborne. While Claiborne possesses elite long-term talent, rookie cornerbacks struggle almost without fail early in their careers, and Claiborne is behind a bit after missing the entire offseason program due to wrist surgery, followed by a week-long training camp absence with a sprained right MCL. He only played 48 snaps this preseason. Claiborne is going to be good, but it's going to take some time. Nicks should have his way with the rookie this Wednesday night.

The sample size is small and Dallas upgraded its pass defense since, but Victor Cruz burned up the Cowboys for 12 catches, 252 yards and a score in their two 2011 meetings. With Domenik Hixon anointed New York's No. 3 receiver, Cruz will play most of his snaps in the slot against overrated, overpaid inside corner Orlando Scandrick. Scandrick won't be able to run with Cruz on option routes he takes vertical. Unless DC Rob Ryan makes a significant defensive adjustment, $50.1 million LCB Brandon Carr may go to waste covering Hixon on critical downs in this game. ... For a guy who's never cleared 300 yards and doesn't have a touchdown since 2008, Martellus Bennett is awfully overhyped. He's an in-line tight end lacking playmaking ability with a 10.0 career yards-per-reception average. Bennett might catch a red-zone touchdown against his old team, but he's a longshot to make noise otherwise. I can't imagine relying on Bennett as a fantasy starter.

Late Monday, I went back and re-watched the Giants' third preseason game. NFL teams typically treat their third exhibitions as regular season tuneups, leaving in starters for at least a half. Rookie David Wilson started with Ahmad Bradshaw nursing a hand injury from which he's now recovered. On 13 snaps, Wilson impressed with his balance and ability to create space for himself with lateral moves. While he was yanked for since-cut D.J. Ware on passing downs, Wilson was left in to pass block or "chip" a pass rusher on three occasions and didn't embarrass himself. Bradshaw will surely start against Dallas and remains the favorite to lead New York's backfield in touches, but I wouldn't be shocked if Wilson was more than a change-of-pace back Wednesday night. His versatility is improving steadily, and he's already just as effective a runner as the starter. Consider Bradshaw an RB2 and Wilson a risky flex option in this game. Just don't be surprised if those roles reverse by the season's midway point. The Giants won't be able to keep Wilson off the field.

Score Prediction: Giants 27, Cowboys 24

HacheMan · Sep 4, 2012

One More Day One day.

That’s all that stands between you and the 2012 NFL season. All the podcasts, iPhone apps, magazines and cryptic Mike Shanahan “updates” you’ve sunk time and money into the past two months? They’re finally about to be worth it.

Of course, all the prep in the world might not be enough to save you from the arbitrary and capricious nature of health in the NFL. Take it from someone who hitched his wagon to Darren McFadden and Kenny Britt in 2011.

But don’t let the sometimes cosmic cruelty of torn pecs and shredded ACLs lull you into believing this game becomes one of chance after the drafts are through.

It’s true that in some rare seasons, there is simply nothing that can be done to make your fate a winning one. If you owned Michael Vick, Jamaal Charles and the aforementioned Britt, 2011 was probably one of those years.

But typically, there are plenty of ways to turn losing into winning and bad luck into good in addition to...you know, setting your lineup and monitoring the waiver wire. For starters...play your starters, at least early in the season.

As the year drags on and injuries take their toll and summer hunches fade into cold realities (I.E., not only is Cam Newton not a bust, he’s seriously this good.), fantasy football necessarily becomes more and more about finding favorable matchups and exploiting them.

But in Week 1? Unless you’re dealing with an absolute matchup nightmare (say, the 49ers Defense in Green Bay), stick to the rivers and lakes that you’re used to.

Don’t “play matchups” and bench your WR2 for a 15th round lottery ticket because of some 2011 statistic. The least you can do is give your team a week to introduce itself.

Second, that 15th round lottery ticket? Don’t clutch it like a golden ticket. This isn’t fantasy baseball. You don’t have months to decide if a trend is for real or not. That second-string running back who rushed for 125 yards and two scores? Worth the “risk” of dropping your late-round hail marys almost every time.

That is not to say any pick you made after the middle rounds is imminently disposable. But again, this isn’t baseball. Fantasy football — particularly because of the predominance of head-to-head leagues — is a here-and-now venture. There’s no point in planning for Week 10 if you’re going to be 2-4 by Week 6.

Lastly — and I can practically “hear” Chris Wesseling tweeting this — go with your gut. Week 1 is not the time to get butterflies. So what if Rotoworld thinks your preferred RB2 is barely even a RB3? If you had your reasons in August, stick to them in September. It’s never those who adhere closest to Top 200 lists who win, but those who best blend what they think they know with what the “experts” “know” they know.

After all, isn’t it all just a big game?

Running Back Roulette

There’s yet to be a game that counts, but here we are, monitoring the every move of not one, not two, not three, not four...not five, but six upper tier running backs. Monday brought updates on all six.

Ryan Mathews

The would-be consensus No. 4 overall player practiced for the first time since breaking his collarbone in San Diego’s preseason opener on August 9.

Like almost every injured NFL player, Mathews projected nothing but sunshine when pressed about his status, saying he’s "very hopeful" he’ll be ready for Monday Night Football against the Raiders.

The only problem? He’s yet to be medically cleared, and wasn’t expected back by Week 1 in even the most optimistic of timelines. Especially with the Bolts playing in the final game of the week, starting Mathews will simply be too great of a risk, no matter how sunny his outlook gets throughout the week.

Adrian Peterson

Vikings coach Leslie Frazier affirmed that AP will be a true game-time decision against the Jaguars, and that even if he does play, he’ll be limited to only a handful of carries.

Perhaps 2012’s greatest value pick, the inclination to start Peterson if he’s active will be great, but for at least one week, you must put your faith in the Toby Gerhart Experience.

Trent Richardson

Richardson not only returned to practice Monday, he looked “healthy running around.” So much so that Browns coach Pat Shurmur essentially guaranteed he’ll carry a starter’s workload if he’s active for his NFL debut. "If he's ready to go, he will be our starter.”

Considering how long the Browns have publicly projected optimism that T-Rich will be ready to go against the Eagles — and the not exactly cautious tones they struck on Monday — there’s little reason to believe the No. 3 pick won’t play. Find out where he sits in Wess and Mike Clay’s ranks later this afternoon.

Maurice Jones-Drew

According to Jaguars coach Mike Mularkey, MJD will be limited to spelling Rashad Jennings on Sunday. How true this really is will be impossible to know until the fur begins to fly and the Jags assess their shot at actually beating the Vikings. But for now, they at least intend to keep their best player in timeout after he held out for the entirety of the preseason.

Since Jennings isn’t exactly a slouch, you’d be safest to assume that MJD’s Sunday workload will indeed be limited, and that your RB1 won’t be much more than a low-end flex for the first game of the season.

Jonathan Stewart

Panthers coach Ron Rivera confirmed Sunday that Stewart's (ankle) Week 1 status is up in the air.

"We’ll see," Rivera said when asked if Stewart will take the field in Tampa. "We don’t know until he gets out here and starts running around."

Stewart has yet to practice since going down in Carolina’s third preseason game, and will need to get in at least a limited session on Wednesday to have a realistic shot at suiting up on Sunday.

Kevin Smith

Smith suited up for Monday’s practice, and appears poised to be full-go for Wednesday’s first official session. Provided you’re comfortable in your belief that he won’t immediately re-injure himself, he’ll be a solid — if uninspiring — RB2/flex against the Rams.

The Hurry Up: Jared Gaither (back) wants you to know that he’s a professional athlete. … David Garrard (back) returned to practice. … Jason Witten (spleen) practiced for the third straight day, but remains “uncertain” for tomorrow’s opener. He’ll undergo a round of all-important tests this morning. … Hakeem Nicks (foot) missed his second consecutive practice, but remains on track to start against the Cowboys. … Miles Austin (hamstring), meanwhile, remains on track to start against the Giants. … Evan Royster sits atop the Redskins’ depth chart...for now. … Shaun O’Hara retired. … Austin Collie (concussion) will be active for Week 1. … The Raiders surprisingly released CB Demarcus Van Dyke. … The Bears parted ways with Brian Price

HacheMan · Sep 4, 2012

Head Games Medical doctor and footballguys.com analyst Jene Bramel offers an in-depth look at concussions and fantasy football at his website Bramelsecondopinion.com. Is Austin Collie, sidelined for the final seven games of the 2010 season, more susceptible to concussions after getting knocked out again two and a half weeks ago?

Research citing an increased risk for those with a history of concussions has included athletes allowed to return before their symptoms were fully resolved. According to Bramel, some neurologists believe that a player held out until full resolution of symptoms are not at a higher risk than other players. “In short, a healed brain is a healed brain and not necessarily more susceptible to future injury just because there is a history of past injury,” explains Bramel.

Armed with that knowledge, we shouldn’t be blown away by the willingness of Colts coaches and doctors to clear Collie for the Week 1 matchup with the Bears despite a third concussion in 22 months. “Full go. Yep," coach Chuck Pagano said of Collie after Monday’s return. “(Looked) great. Fresh legs. Ran all over the place. Caught everything."

An every-down receiver in Bruce Arians’ aggressive offense, Collie was Andrew Luck’s favorite target in offseason practices and training camp. He had bypassed Reggie Wayne as a top-30 fantasy option in the Rotoworld Draft Guide before his mid-August concussion. Collie isn’t without risk, but it should be noted that he played all 16 games a year ago after the concussion issues of 2010.

At the cost of a roster spot, Collie should be owned in all leagues going forward. Keep in mind, it was just two years ago that Collie was leading all wide receivers in fantasy points before undergoing mid-season thumb surgery and dealing with the subsequent late-season concussions.
***
This is the first Waiver Wired of the season, so let's review the rules:

Every Tuesday, I'll go over the best available pickups at every fantasy position except kicker. Every league setup is different, so I'll try to include players who may be available in shallow leagues, and lesser-known players that are worth trying in deep leagues. I give a recommendation for each player, such as "Should be owned in 12-team leagues." This doesn't mean you should own him, just that he's good enough to improve one of the rosters in your league. If I write, "Must be owned," or "Should be owned in all leagues," I'm recommending doing what you can to find a spot.

Most of my leagues have moved to sites which allow owners to place interesting free agents on a "watch list" for future consideration. As such, each week I will throw in a few long-term fliers that should be placed on watch lists for easy access when a quick decision is needed.

On to the players. Here is how I rank the top players available at each position as we head into the season opener. Full writeups of each player are below.

***

Editor's Note: Join subscriber only chats, get weekly rankings before anyone else, plus exclusive weekly projections, stat tools, dynasty ranks, columns, and much more including the Rotoworld Oracle in our Season Pass. Also last-minute drafters can still get the latest projection updates in Rotoworld's draft guide.

***

Quarterbacks
Jake Locker
Russell Wilson
Christian Ponder
Sam Bradford
Nick Foles

Running Backs
Ronnie Brown
Jonathan Dwyer
Kendall Hunter
Alfred Morris
Robert Turbin
Bernard Scott
Vick Ballard
Taiwan Jones

Wide Receivers
Austin Collie
Braylon Edwards
Rod Streater
Davone Bess
Randall Cobb
Jerome Simpson
Steve Smith (STL)
Alshon Jeffery
Jonathan Baldwin

Tight Ends
Kyle Rudolph
Martellus Bennett
Lance Kendricks
Dallas Clark
Scott Chandler

Defense/Special Teams
Seahawks
Broncos
Raiders
Vikings

Quarterbacks

Jake Locker, Titans - Owned in 48% of CBS leagues, 47% of Yahoo leagues.

Locker’s preseason performance was up-and-down to say the least, but it’s worth remembering that he was playing without the one passing-game weapon, Kenny Britt, who draws double teams. With the Week 2 return of Britt to go with impressive rookie Kendall Wright, steady veteran Nate Washington, improving tight end Jared Cook as well as Chris Johnson in the screen game, Locker has the arsenal to make fantasy noise in Chris Palmer’s Run ‘N Shoot variation. Don’t forget about his legs, either. Consistency will be elusive, but Locker has QB1 potential in a best-case scenario.

Recommendation: Should be owned in 12-team leagues.

Russell Wilson, Seahawks - Owned in 45% of CBS leagues, 38% of Yahoo leagues.

Playing mostly against second- and third-stringers, Wilson won over the Seahawks coaching staff by marching the offense up and down the field to the tune of 8.5 yards per attempt with six total touchdowns. He’s proven to be NFL-ready with effective scrambling ability that offer high upside as a QB2 option. The questions are whether Wilson can offer consistent fantasy production against a first-team defenses in a run-oriented offense with question marks at wide receiver and tight end. At the cost of a waiver pickup, it’s worth finding out.

Recommendation: Should be owned in 12-team leagues.

Christian Ponder, Vikings - Owned in 22% of CBS leagues, 13% of Yahoo leagues.

This is an intriguing QB2 option, available for the price of a waiver pickup. Ponder showed a marked increase in accuracy (60.5 percent) and efficiency (8.71 YPA) in preseason action, enjoying the emergence of Kyle Rudolph and Jerome Simpson as viable second and third options to Percy Harvin in the passing game. Often overlooked as an athlete, Ponder also has the running ability to pick up an extra 3-5 points per week. There’s high-end QB2 upside here beyond an improved offensive line.

Recommendation: Should be owned in 12-team leagues.

Sam Bradford, Rams - Owned in 44% of CBS leagues, 24% of Yahoo leagues.

After developing bad habits due to poor pass protection in a lost season last year, Bradford looked fantastic in preseason Weeks 2 and 4. Sandwiched in between, however, Bradford once again looked tentative and shaky in the face of defensive pressure. Bradford certainly has the arm for fantasy success, but the Rams’ low-grade offensive line and subpar receiver corps will leave him with consistency issues throughout the season.

Recommendation: Should be owned in deeper leagues.

Nick Foles, Eagles - Owned in 6% of CBS leagues, 2% of Yahoo leagues.

Even if we can’t predict specific injuries with any degree of accuracy, it’s fair to posit that Michael Vick’s relatively careBonus Playing style leaves him more susceptible to missed games. Foles still has to prove he can handle heavy blitzes, but showed in extensive preseason action that he could move the offense consistently, especially in the red zone. If the poised rookie is called upon to start, the Eagles offensive weapons give him borderline QB1 appeal.

Recommendation: Worth a look in two-quarterback leagues.

Watch List: Tim Tebow, Shaun Hill, Kyle Orton, Ryan Mallett, Colin Kaepernick

Tebow has been a QB1 option every time he has started. … Hill, Orton and Mallett join Foles as the backups with the best combination of offensive talent and fantasy potential. … Kaepernick’s dangerous rushing ability and questionable accuracy put him in the Tebow class of backups.

Hold Off: Blaine Gabbert, Mark Sanchez, Ryan Tannehill, Brandon Weeden, John Skelton

Sanchez, Tannehill, Weeden and Skelton are under center under the league’s most inept offenses. … Gabbert has been managed well by Mike Mularkey in preseason action, but this remains a run-first offense. Gabbert is going to have to show he can do more than first-read quick passes before he gains fantasy appeal.

Cut Bait: Alex Smith, Andy Dalton

I can’t believe Smith is owned in two-third of fantasy leagues while upside options such as Locker and Wilson are barely owned half. We know Smith offers by now, and it’s worthless in fantasy circles. … Dalton hasn’t moved the Bengals since before last Thanksgiving. His tight end is coming back from a knee injury, the interior of his offensive line hasn’t blocked well all preseason and there’s no receiving weapon beyond A.J. Green. You can do better for a fantasy backup.

Running Backs

Ronnie Brown, Chargers - Owned in 43% of CBS leagues, 23% of Yahoo leagues.

Ryan Mathews (fractured clavicle) returned to practice Monday, but that means little until he’s cleared for contact. Until Mathews gains that clearance, Brown is the favorite for carries and receptions in the Chargers backfield. Although he appeared to be running on fumes last season, Brown has shown fresh legs in preseason action. He’s a good bet for 15-20 touches as a RB2 option if Mathews does indeed sit out Monday’s game at Oakland.

Recommendation: Should be owned in all leagues.

Jonathan Dwyer, Steelers - Owned in 19% of CBS leagues, 15% of Yahoo leagues.

I’ve been saying for nearly a month now that I would rather carry a slimmed-down Dwyer on my fantasy roster than a plodding Isaac Redman playing through hip and groin injuries. Dwyer has severely outplayed Redman in training camp and preseason action, showing better than expected hands and an ability to burst through the line with quick cuts. Redman may get the courtesy start at Denver this week, but the Pittsburgh papers now expect Dwyer to get plenty of snaps from the get-go. Dwyer has the talent to emerge as the leader of this committee with Redman, Rashard Mendenhall and Chris Rainey. If he starts the season hot, he could stay out in front all season long.

Recommendation: Should be owned in all leagues.

Kendall Hunter, 49ers - Owned in 36% of CBS leagues, 20% of Yahoo leagues.

Coach Jim Harbaugh and OC Greg Roman both believe Hunter “really has a chance to have a big year” after an “exceptional” offseason and training camp. Already one of the league’s premier change-of-pace options, Hunter will eat into Frank Gore’s workload this season. We wouldn’t be surprised if Hunter ends up with better fantasy numbers than Gore at the end of the season.

Recommendation: Should be owned in 12-team leagues.

Alfred Morris, Redskins - Owned in 41% of CBS leagues, 12% of Yahoo leagues.

Here is Mike Shanahan’s backfield in a nutshell: A few hours before Friday’s cuts, the Washington Times opined that Tim Hightower, “if totally healthy, figures to be the favorite” to enter the season as the starter. Hightower was promptly released, leaving a three-headed monster of Morris, Evan Royster and Roy Helu. Although Royster stood atop the depth chart released on Monday, he confessed that he has no idea what his role will be for the opener. The backfield breakdown from beat writer John Keim suggests all three Redskins backs must be owned in fantasy leagues even if none can be trusted as a starter.

Recommendation: Should be owned in 12-team leagues.

Robert Turbin, Seahawks - Owned in 33 percent of CBS leagues, 11% of Yahoo leagues.

A power back in the mode of Marion Barber, Turbin has already bypassed Leon Washington as Marshawn Lynch’s backup thanks to a strong preseason showing. Lynch has experienced back spasms for the second time in the past 12 months, leaving Turbin as the obvious “handcuff.” Should Lynch miss time, Turbin would have strong RB2 appeal.

Recommendation: Should be owned in 12-team leagues.

Bernard Scott, Bengals - Owned in 16% percent of CBS leagues, 6% of Yahoo leagues.

You will see other sites trumpet BenJarus Green-Ellis as Cedric Benson’s feature-back replacement. That analysis ignores the consistent signs out of Bengals headquarters that OC Jay Gruden wants to move toward a committee approach. Green-Ellis was a bargain role player in New England, killing the clock and converting in short-yardage situations for one of the league’s premier offenses. With no playmaking ability to speak of, Green-Ellis is practically useless between the 20s and when playing from behind. As the lone big-play threat in this backfield, we expect Scott’s role to grow at Green-Ellis’ expense over the course of the season.

Recommendation: Worth a look in 12-team leagues.

Vick Ballard, Colts - Owned in 3% of CBS leagues, 1% of Yahoo leagues.

After watching preseason game tape, NFL Films analyst Greg Cosell opined that the fifth-round rookie was already the best runner on the Colts roster. Although Donald Brown will enter the season atop the depth chart, the new coaching staff isn’t beholden to any holdovers from last year. Ballard’s role could grow at Brown’s expense if the veteran gets off to a slow start.

Recommendation: Worth a look in 12-team leagues.

Taiwan Jones, Raiders - Owned in 17 percent of CBS leagues, 5% of Yahoo leagues.
Mike Goodson hasn’t been the same since being carted off the field with a neck injury early in training camp. The more explosive and sure-handed Jones appears to have bypassed him as Darren McFadden’s primary backup. Neither player is has the every-down ability to be a pure “handcuff,” but Jones offers more upside.

Recommendation: Worth a look in deeper leagues.

Watch List: Jahvid Best, Ronnie Hillman, Bilal Powell, Alex Green, Vareen, Lamar Miller

If you have the roster space, why not carry Best? What does it cost you other than hope? If he gains clearance for contact while on the early-season PUP list, he becomes a fantasy starter by mid-season. If you need the roster spot, throw him back in. … Hillman, Powell, Green and Vareen will enter the season as passing-down specialists with the potential for increased roles over the long haul. … Miller has the talent to push Daniel Thomas for the No. 2 job in Miami.

Hold Off: Curtis Brinkley, Isaiah Pead, Mike Tolbert

If Ryan Mathews sits out Week 1, Brinkley will play a backup role to Ronnie Brown. … Pead is splitting time with seventh-rounder Daryl Richardson behind Steven Jackson. … Even if Jonathan Stewart (ankle) misses the opener, Tolbert isn’t an attractive fantasy play behind DeAngelo Williams and Cam Newton.

Cut Bait: LeGarrette Blount, James Starks, Daniel Thomas, Brandon Jacobs, Tim Hightower, Mike Goodson

Blount is nothing more than a low-upside handcuff for Doug Martin owners. He's barely worthy of a roster spot in 12-team leagues. … Starks is still battling turf toe. … Thomas is a pure backup to Reggie Bush, not a third-down back. … Jacobs is a short-yardage specialist with a knee injury. … Hightower is out of the league. … Goodson fell behind Taiwan Jones for the No. 2 job.

Wide Receivers

Austin Collie, Colts - Owned in 25 percent of CBS leagues, 30% of Yahoo leagues.

Collie has been a quarterback-friendly receiver dating back to his BYU days. Emerging as Andrew Luck’s favorite target in OTAs and training-camp practices, Collie had climbed to No. 30 in the Rotoworld Draft Guide receiver ranks before his latest concussion. While Collie remains a red-flag injury risk, he is symptom-free and “full-go” for the season opener versus the Bears. He offers WR2 upside at the cost of a roster spot. This a no-brainer pick-up entering the season.

Recommendation: Should be owned in all leagues.

Braylon Edwards, Seahawks - Owned in 10% of CBS leagues, 5% of Yahoo leagues

Edwards is just two years removed from 21st-place fantasy finish with Mark Sanchez as his quarterback. Last year was a wash due to a season-long knee ailment, but all indications from Seahawks camp suggest Edwards has regained pre-injury form. Golden Tate, his competition for the starting split end job, is expected to miss at least two weeks with a knee injury. Edwards could take the job and run with it as a WR3 candidate under rookie Russell Wilson.

Recommendation: Worth a look in 12-team leagues.

Rod Streater, Raiders - Owned in 3% of CBS leagues, 2% of Yahoo leagues.

A big, physical receiver with good hands and better than expected blocking ability, Streater was Carson Palmer’s top preseason target with an impressive 18 catches for 165 yards in three games. If Denarius Moore (hamstring) remains sidelined versus the Chargers, Streater is a borderline WR3 option. If Jacoby Ford (foot) sits out instead, Streater will play the slot as a less appealing fantasy option.

Recommendation: Worth a look in 12-team leagues.

Davone Bess, Dolphins - Owned in 35% of CBS leagues, 26% of Yahoo leagues.

Easily the Dolphins’ best receiver throughout camp and preseason action, Bess is locked in as Ryan Tannehill’s No. 1 target entering the season. Don’t expect touchdowns or big plays in a low-scoring offense, but there should be plenty of six-catch, 70-yard games in Bess’ future.

Recommendation: Should be owned in all PPR leagues.

Randall Cobb, Packers - Owned in 41% of CBS leagues, 43% of Yahoo leagues.

The steam has gone out of Cobb’s breakout sails on the heels of Donald Driver’s strong training camp. Should Driver or James Jones suffer an injury, however, Cobb would enter the fantasy WR3 mix with an increase in snaps. A Percy Harvin-like talent, Cobb should earn more playing time over the course of the season regardless. He’s an ideal WR5 stash.

Recommendation: Worth a look in 12-team leagues.

Jerome Simpson, Vikings - Owned in 28% of CBS leagues, 16 percent of Yahoo leagues.

A popular preseason breakout candidate a year ago, Simpson’s vertical game ended up being a poor fit for Jay Gruden’s West Coast offense that relied more on preseason route running. The Vikings spent the offseason and training camp raving about Simpson’s speed and athletcism as a much-needed downfield threat to complement Percy Harvin. Suspended the first three games, Simpson projects as the every-down “X” receiver once he returns in October. Stash him if you have the roster space.

Recommendation: Worth a look in 12-team leagues.

Steve Smith, Rams - Owned in 9% of CBS leagues, 5 percent of Yahoo leagues.
Smith doesn’t offer much in the way of upside in a run-oriented offense that figures to be among the league’s lowest scoring. If you’re looking for early-season targets, receptions and yards, though, Smith could offer borderline WR3 production as the starter opposite Danny Amendola.

Recommendation: Worth a look in 12-team leagues.

Jonathan Baldwin, Chiefs - Owned in 35% of CBS leagues, 23% of Yahoo leagues.

Baldwin made plenty of noise with spectacular catches in offseason and training-camp practices, but that was before Dwayne Bowe signed his franchise tender and reported to the team. Baldwin is now relegated to third or fourth option in the passing game for an offense that figures to run as much as possible. The 2011 first-rounder is likely another year away from a true breakout.

Recommendation: Worth a look in 12-team leagues.

Alshon Jeffery, Bears - Owned in 35% of CBS leagues, 37% of Yahoo leagues.

Devin Hester will enter the season as the nominal starter opposite Brandon Marshall, but Jeffery is coming like a freight train after a strong training camp. As an early-season situational player, Jeffery’s production will be spotty, but he has a chance to finish second to Marshall in wide receiver snaps this year. The second-rounder is purely a stash for now.

Recommendation: Worth a look in 12-team leagues.

Watch List: Eddie Royal, Vincent Brown, Doug Baldwin, Brian Quick, Dwayne Harris

Royal has been among the NFL’s most inefficient receivers over the past couple of years. Skepticism is advised when coach Norv Turner calls him one of the most impressive players he’s coached the past few years. Pay no mind Peter King’s “fantasy alert” on Royal. That is a curse more often than a blessing. … Brown was the best route runner and the only Chargers receivers capable of playing all three positions before fracturing his ankle a couple of weeks ago. He won’t play before mid-season, but he’s still worth stowing away on your watch list. … Coming off a hamstring procedure, Baldwin is a wildcard in Seattle. … Quick has been relegated to second-team work throughout camp, but could see action in three-wide sets after the Greg Salas trade. … NFL Films analyst Greg Cosell saw similar physical attributes to former Bills great Andre Reed when Harris entered the league a year ago. He’s a deep sleeper as Dallas’ potential No. 3 receiver.

Hold Off: Leonard Hankerson, Emmanuel Sanders, Golden Tate

Hankerson was behind Josh Morgan in the Redskins’ Week 1 depth chart. Keep him in mind for later in the season. … Sanders will move to the No. 3 receiver role now that Mike Wallace has reported for duty. … Tate is out two weeks with a right knee injury.

Cut Bait: Laurent Robinson, Mario Manningham, Michael Floyd

Already behind Justin Blackmon in the pecking order, Robinson has no prayer of matching last year’s numbers. … Manningham is in a rotation with Randy Moss opposite Michael Crabtree in a run-heavy offense. … Floyd is the No. 4 receiver in an offense without a quarterback or an offensive line.

Tight Ends

Kyle Rudolph, Vikings - Owned in 43% of CBS leagues, 34% of Yahoo leagues.

As I mentioned earlier under Christian Ponder, the Vikings offense offers sneaky fantasy appeal this year with a stud running back, the league’s most versatile weapon, and a potential stud tight end. Locked in as an every-down tight end in an offense seeking a No. 2 target in the passing game, Rudolph offers size, speed and athleticism on par with Rob Gronkowski. Last year’s second-rounder dominated training camp while earning Ponder’s trust with an impressive catch radius in tight circles. There’s not a better breakout candidate at the position this year.

Recommendation: Should be owned in all leagues.

Martellus Bennett, Giants - Owned in 28% of CBS leagues, 20% of Yahoo leagues.

With prototypical size and athleticism, Bennett has been one of the NFL’s biggest underachievers since the Cowboys grabbed him in the second round of the 2008 draft. How much of that was due to limited opportunity behind Jason Witten? We’re about to find out. Eli Manning turned Kevin Boss and Jake Ballard, two players far more limited athletically, into fantasy starters. He could easily do the same for the Black Unicorn.

Recommendation: Worth a look in 12-team leagues.

Lance Kendricks, Rams - Owned in 9% of CBS leagues, 3% of Yahoo leagues.

Kendricks appeared to be the next great tight end after a strong preseason a year ago, but fell flat on his face in the regular season. New OC Brian Schottenheimer is expected to feature the tight end prominently in his offense, and Kendricks has been a go-to receiver for Sam Bradford in exhibition action. He’s back on the radar in 14- and 16-team leagues.

Recommendation: Worth a look in deeper leagues.

Dallas Clark, Buccaneers - Owned in 29% of CBS leagues, 29% of Yahoo leagues.

A healthy Clark has emerged as a bit of a bounce-back candidate after showing a good rapport with Josh Freeman throughout training camp. His upside is capped, however, as a passing-down player in Greg Schiano’s run-first offense. At age 33 with 15 missed games over the past two years, Clark is more of a dice roll than a sure thing.

Recommendation: Worth a look in deeper leagues.

Scott Chandler, Bills - Owned in 15% of CBS leagues, 4% of Yahoo leagues.

Chandler made waves as the offense’s biggest playmaker during offseason practices, and continued to shine during training camp. Primarily a red-zone threat in 2011, Chandler could be in for a boost in targets between the 20s. I’d make him prove it first in 12-team leagues.

Recommendation: Worth a look in deeper leagues.

Watch List: Joel Dreessen, Zach Miller, Rob Housler, Dwayne Allen, Jordan Cameron

The fantasy community arrived at a consensus months ago that Jacob Tamme would be a top-10 tight end while Dreessen plays a supporting role. We have no idea if that will hold true or not. Dreessen has been every bit as involved in preseason action. … Miller returns to the No. 1 tight end role in Seattle with Kellen Winslow out of the picture. … Housler, Allen and Cameron are talented young tight ends with breakout potential later in the season if their role in the passing game increases.

Hold Off: Heath Miller, Kellen Davis, Chris Cooley

The Steelers talked up an increased role for Miller all offseason, but nothing changed in the preseason. The offensive line is still weak enough that Miller will have to stay in to block. … Forget the sleeper talk on Davis. Jay Cutler isn’t looking at his tight ends in the passing game. … Cooley looks to be done as a fantasy asset.

Cut Bait: Kellen Winslow

Defense/Special Teams

If you plan to “stream” defenses off the waiver wire for 16 weeks, the least effective offenses entering the season appear to be the Jets, Browns, Dolphins, Cardinals and perhaps the Rams.

Seahawks

Seattle is owned in 75 percent of CBS leagues, but that number should be closer to 100. Buoyed by the league’s best secondary, a talented young linebacker corps and a fearsome front four, the Seahawks boast arguably the league’s fastest defense. The Week 1 matchup couldn’t be any better with Arizona’s NFL-worst offensive line on the docket.

Broncos

Speaking of porous offensive line, the Steelers travel to Denver to square off against the pass-rushing duo of Von Miller and Elvis Dumervil. Left tackle Max Starks is still working to return to form from ACL surgery, and neither of the Pittsburgh early-round rookies will help in pass protection before October.

Raiders

Offensive line woes, part three. Philip Rivers’ first-half struggles last year were directly related to poor pass protection, specifically at left tackle. It looks like more of the same this year, with overwhelmed undrafted free agent Mike Harris guarding his blindside while Jared Gaither (back) is sidelined. The Raiders’ underrated front four could have Rivers on the run all night on Monday.

Vikings

Jacksonville’s best player is headed for a third-down role in his first game back from a lengthy holdout. The Vikings are worth a look as a spot start while testing Blaine Gabbert’s preseason improvement in a quick-passing offense.

HacheMan · Sep 4, 2012

What I learned this preseason

Eric Karabell

On the eve of another NFL regular season, it's time to officially wrap up the preseason and share what was learned. In general, fantasy owners shouldn't be looking closely -- or at all -- in the direction of actual statistics because coaches have different agendas in August, and winning games certainly isn't the most important thing. For those wondering, Kirk Cousins of the Washington Redskins led the league in preseason passing yards, Arizona Cardinals No. 4 tailback William Powell led everyone in rushing yards and Travaris Cadet -- he's a New Orleans Saints running back -- was tops in receiving yards. No need to adjust your draft rankings here.

Here are a few general thoughts from a busy and actually quite interesting preseason with fantasy implications. Sure, August was often overshadowed by holdout updates and what Tim Tebow was doing at any precise moment, plus the non-fantasy impact of replacement referees, but news is news … or something like that.

Hold on: Several noteworthy fantasy options held out this summer, but one by one, Kansas City Chiefs wide receiver Dwayne Bowe, Pittsburgh Steelers wide receiver Mike Wallace and Jacksonville Jaguars running back Maurice Jones-Drew all showed up to their teams and will play this opening week. Fantasy value changed with the latter two, though too much for my liking. Wallace remains a top-10 wide receiver to me, and it's not like he needed 100 preseason snaps to begin with. He knows his quarterback. With Jones-Drew, there might be more conditioning issues, but I personally think it's ridiculous to compare him to Tennessee Titans running back Chris Johnson from a year prior. What, because one guy shows up out of shape and unmotivated means the next guy will, too? MJD is hardly an awesome play in Week 1, but he will again provide first-round numbers.
We learned: Holdout situations -- and they'll always be there -- tend to scare fantasy owners unnecessarily, last month more than ever. If you're in a league with me and want to move Wallace or Jones-Drew, you know where to find me.

Flyin' low: Cameras were going to be following Tebow, Mark Sanchez, coach Rex Ryan and the New York Jets circus regardless, but with the offense failing to score an August touchdown when either of the top two quarterbacks were in the game (hooray to buried QB Greg McElroy!), panic ensued. Truth be told, the Jets' offense isn't nearly this bad, with or without the Tebow distraction and potential upside of him playing. After all, Sanchez was fantasy's No. 10 quarterback last season, but it wouldn't be surprising if he loses the starting job before October. If you haven't drafted yet, spend a late-round pick on Tebow. Sure, he looked terrible in the preseason, but with him, it's never about how he looks. Point is, a Jets quarterback can succeed.
We learned: That too many people think the Jets won't score touchdowns in the games that matter, either. Frankly, I've found running back Shonn Greene and wide receiver Santonio Holmes came at far too great a discount in recent drafts.

Here a rookie, there a rookie: Five first-year quarterbacks are slated to start in Week 1, which will obliterate the previous record of two. Then again, just because Carolina Panthers wunderkind Cam Newton set all sorts of records last season does not mean the Redskins' Robert Griffin III or Seattle's Russell Wilson will enjoy the same success. I think we can safely put the less mobile Andrew Luck in a different category. Brandon Weeden and Ryan Tannehill are also starting. None of these rookies are fantasy starters yet, but it looks like fantasy owners are buying in anyway, with the three bigger-name options being selected as QB2 choices.
We learned: That fantasy owners think if a real-life coach starts a guy, they should like him more. Coaches and fantasy owners are looking for different things. Take a shot on rookie passers as backups if you will, but be ready to sign that forgotten Matt Cassel or Ryan Fitzpatrick option when you really need a one-week fill-in.

Ten players I like more than I did a month ago

1. Peyton Manning, QB, Denver Broncos
2. Matt Schaub, QB, Houston Texans
3. Chris Johnson, RB, Tennessee Titans
4. Doug Martin, RB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
5. Cedric Benson, RB, Green Bay Packers
6. Mikel Leshoure, RB, Detroit Lions
7. Eric Decker and Demaryius Thomas, WR, Broncos
8. Reggie Wayne, WR, Indianapolis Colts
9. Danny Amendola, WR, St. Louis Rams
10. Kyle Rudolph, TE, Minnesota Vikings

Ten players I like less than I did a month ago

1. Michael Vick, QB, Philadelphia Eagles
2. Matt Flynn, QB, Seattle Seahawks
3. Ryan Mathews, RB, San Diego Chargers
4. Trent Richardson, RB, Cleveland Browns
5. Adrian Peterson, RB, Vikings
6. Roy Helu, RB, Washington Redskins
7. Dez Bryant and Miles Austin, WR, Dallas Cowboys
8. Andre Johnson, WR, Texans
9. Mario Manningham and Randy Moss, WR, San Francisco 49ers
10. Jacob Tamme, TE, Broncos

HacheMan · Sep 5, 2012

Love the game, hate "that guy"

By Matthew Berry | ESPN.com

Game Day.
Finally here, kids. Merry Chistmakah. Not sure why opening kickoff to the NFL season isn't a national holiday, but it should be. Could we at least get a stamp? Maybe we vote on one? Like between fat Rex Ryan and skinny Rex Ryan? Props if you get the reference.

Among the reasons for the excitement, of course, is that the start of the NFL season is also the start of the fantasy football season. And if my Twitter and Facebook> accounts are any indication, more people than ever before are playing fantasy this year. Which is, you know, awesome.

But as in any new situation, people playing for the first time may not know all the rules of etiquette. That's where I come in. Whether you are a newbie or a longtime player, it never hurts to get a refresher course. So as you enter into this fantasy football season, I wish you luck with your sleepers. I pray your players avoid injury. But mostly, I desperately hope you're not ... "that guy."

"That guy" shows up to your draft with an out-of-date magazine. And then wants a do-over when he finds out the guy he just drafted is out for the year. Or worse, tries to bum your cheat sheet. Get your own sleepers, hoss.

Or "that guy" shows up with 10 magazines and tons of printouts. And then has the clock run out when he can't figure out which guy he wants.

Or "that guy" says to the clueless guy drafting right before you, "Oh, you need a tight end? Take Jared Cook. Matthew needs a tight end, so he'll probably pick him next unless you get him." Worry about your own team and don't mention players that haven't been drafted, OK?

"That guy" pretends to draft T.J. Houshmandzadeh, mangles his name and then says "Championship." It was funny six years ago, dude.

"That guy" talks all sorts of smack at the draft about how bad everyone else's picks are. And has never won. Or he talks about how loaded his team is. In the third round. Or has a critique after every pick. If I wanted play-by-play, I'd have brought Mike Tirico. Settle down, sailor.

"That guy" has a terrible team name. I'm all for adult humor as long as it's clever, but if it would make an 8-year-old laugh, it's not only hacky, its lazy and unoriginal. I'm talking to you, people who named a team after Isaiah Pead.

"That guy" makes terrible trade offers. No, I do not want to trade my second-round pick, Jamaal Charles, for your 10th-rounder, Tony Gonzalez. That is an actual trade offer I got this week. If you wouldn't do it in reverse, don't offer it.

"That guy" won't respond to trade emails. Hey, you don't want to do the deal, fine, just say a quick "no thanks." Are you in this league or not? Oh, you are? Then you respond to an inquiry like a civilized human being.

"That guy," however, won't take no for an answer. If you do get a response of "no," you're allowed to send a follow-up email saying, "Well, is there anything you'd consider for so-and-so?" But after that? Walk away, brother. The only person who likes begging less than a woman is a fantasy league owner.

"That guy" takes the full time on his draft pick. With the very first pick. Or the last kicker pick.

"That guy" cheers for injuries of players. It's a violent game and injuries provide opportunity for other fantasy players, but come on. It's a human being and their health, livelihood, and family's livelihood is at stake.

By that same token, "that guy" is the sort of person who took to Twitter last year to yell at Adrian Peterson, Arian Foster or Jamaal Charles about how they are ruining his fantasy team, which happened a lot to all three men. In fact, "that guy" is anyone who directs anger at someone on Twitter or Facebook about fantasy football. It's a game played with an oblong-shaped leather ball. Stuff happens and it's a game we play for fun. Calm the hell down.

"That guy" doesn't pay attention during the draft, calls out guys who have already been taken, and is late meeting any league requirements. If you can't follow through, don't play. And if you can, don't make me chase you down. Seriously.

"That guy" is a sexist. Won't let a woman in his league or thinks it's the end of the world when he loses to a woman. Some of the smartest sports people I know and best fantasy players I've seen are women. And I've yet to meet one who was "that guy," which is why this column isn't asking you not to be "that person." Everyone plays. Get used to it and get better.

Having said that, don't be "that guy" who brings his non-playing girlfriend or wife to the draft. If you're not in the league, you're not invited.

"That guy" brags about his auto-picked team. Or worse, complains about it. Hey, you can't make the draft, that's on you. Or how about "that guy" who has known about the draft for weeks and then just doesn't show up, with no warning, and doesn't answer calls or texts?

"That guy" gets mad at you for drafting "his" player. Yeah, you're right. No one else wanted Doug Martin this year. Just you. Or worse, brags weeks into the season about his "sleeper" panning out. Yep, dude, no one else saw a big year coming from Brandon Marshall.

"That guy" needs to tell you about his team. Look, I'm paid to care about your team. Tell me. Everyone else? They care about your team as much as you care about theirs. Your fantasy team is the new golfing story or vacation pictures.

"That guy" is a rankings slave. I do rankings for a living and I'm the first to admit it's a loose guideline to help with market evaluation. Think for yourself. And if you can't, then why are you even playing?

"That guy" vetoes a trade because it doesn't involve him or her. Hate the veto guy. Win on the virtual field, not in legal loopholes. Trade negotiation is part of fantasy skill. As long as both trade partners think they are improving their team, the trade should stand. Doesn't matter if you don't agree. Not your team, genius. You're not the judge. Unless there is collusion, no trade should ever be overturned.

"That guy" says words like "never" or "no way that will happen." The kind of guy who probably said last year, "What are you doing taking Cam Newton? Rookie quarterbacks never pan out."

"That guy" complains about what would have been. "If only I'd started (a scrub who went off) instead of (a star who underperformed), I'd have won!" Yeah, but you didn't, did you? Because no one in their right mind would have started said scrub over said star. It happens. Get over it.

"That guy" is an Internet tough guy. If you wouldn't say it in real life, don't say it behind a screen name. And unless it's lifelong friends, keep the smack about the team and keep the personal insults to yourself. And if you dish it out, you better be able to take it. Often the biggest whiner is the guy who sends out the most.

"That guy" loses interest after his team falls out of it, doesn't set players during a bye or replace injured players. You made a commitment. Even if the league doesn't matter to you, it matters to us, so try your best or don't play at all.

"That guy" abuses the waiver wire, picking up players and immediately waiving them, and does this over and over to try to pollute the pool and make it so people can't grab free agents. That's not strategy, that means you have no life. Again, win on the field, not in some sort of technology loophole. (Don't bother trying it in an ESPN.com league, either. We have safeguards against those kinds of shenanigans.)

But mostly, "that guy" ruins your enjoyment of the greatest game ever invented. Don't be "that guy."

What did I miss? When I talked about "that guy" last year, a lot of you had some great comments to make about it, so have at it. What drives you crazy in a league when "that guy" is in it? While you answer that, we meander slowly to the first Love/Hate of the year. Get used to the meandering slowly through the column before we get to the fantasy info. Also, understand that this is not a pure start/sit column. Want to know whom to start and whom to sit? Read my ranks, updated throughout the week, and find the two players you are wondering about. Whomever I have ranked higher is whom I would start.

This column is basically a rankings reaction or explanation of players who I am higher or lower on than my fellow ESPN rankers. Use your brain. Just because Wes Welker (ranked 18th by me this week) is a "hate" and Nate Washington (ranked No. 22) is a "Love" doesn't mean I would start Nate over Wes. No, I have Wes ranked higher than Nate, so that is whom I would start. But my rank for Nate is much higher than others have him ranked, and my rank for Wes is lower than others' ranks, so that's why they make the cut; you'll read my explanation about why below.

Finally, just a reminder that "Fantasy Football Now," our Emmy-award winning fantasy show, expands to two hours this year. Every Sunday morning, 11 a.m. to 1 p.m. ET, on ESPN2 and WatchESPN. Tune in before kickoff!

And away we go.

Quarterbacks I love

Matthew Stafford, Lions: A super-obvious name, I'm including him here just because I have a cool stat that I want to show off. What? Hey! Simmer down, there. You got a choice. Either I get to show off my nerdy stat or it's more self-involved stories about me ... that's what I thought.

The nerdy stat: Last year, Matthew Stafford faced four or fewer pass-rushers on 75.4 percent of his drop backs, second-highest in the NFL. Only Aaron Rodgers (plus-25) had a better touchdown-to-interception differential than Stafford (plus-24) against such rushes.

Not bad, right? But then check this: From 2008 to 2010, coach Jeff Fisher's Titans rushed four or fewer pass-rushers on 76.3 percent of plays, the second-highest rate over that span.

Booyah! That's right. Just took 118 words to tell you that Matthew Stafford is good and you want to start him against the Rams. Who says I'm all substance? What? No one says that? Ah. Very well then. Let's get to fantasy kryptonite, post-haste.

Michael Vick, Eagles: We all have him at seven, but he's here for this simple reason: I've gotten a lot of questions about Vick's hands, ribs, lack of preseason practice, the Browns' second-best pass defense last year, blah blah blah ... do we start Vick in Week 1? It's really simple. If you own Vick, you're a believer. You bought in, so no backing out now. This is the kind of matchup you want. The Browns' No. 2 pass defense last year was a joke; it's only because teams ran all over them. If you own him, you're starting Vick.

Jay Cutler, Bears Show-offy nerd stat alert: Jay Cutler was sacked or under duress (forced to move or alter a throw due to pressure) on 34.2 percent of his drop-backs last season, the second-highest rate in the NFL. (Tim Tebow had more. Of course he did.) But! Cutler completed 47.8 percent of his passes under duress, the fourth-best rate in the NFL. With Brandon Marshall in town, I'm feeling that Cutler wants to take his new toy for a spin, and who better to do it against the Colts, who were tied for allowing the sixth-most pass plays of 20-plus yards last season and were last in interceptions, which is always Cutler's bugaboo. Did I drop a "bugaboo" three players in? You're damn right I did. It's Week 1! All bets are off!

Russell Wilson, Seahawks: Last year, a rookie quarterback started in Week 1 against the Cardinals and that worked out pretty well. I like what I've seen of Wilson so far in the preseason, and with Marshawn Lynch less than 100 percent, the Seahawks will need to throw. With a rookie back there, the Cards may bring more pressure, but I'm OK with that. Wilson is mobile, and the ability to get rushing yards will help. Only five teams had fewer interceptions last year than the Cardinals.

If you're desperate (in a deeper league, start two quarterbacks, are scrambling for a replacement for whatever reason): I realize Carson Palmer has struggled this preseason, but Palmer's turnover issues come from when he gets pressure. When the Chargers brought pressure last year, they allowed the highest QBR of any opposing quarterback. And in five career starts versus San Diego, Palmer has 13 scores, just three picks and over 1,700 passing yards. ... Also, Sam Bradford has looked good this preseason, and do you think a game with Detroit might turn into a shootout? Me too.

Quarterbacks I Hate

Peyton Manning, Broncos: It's the first game in over a year for Peyton, there's still gonna be some rust, and while the Steelers won't have Ryan Clark, they still had the No. 1 passing defense and No. 1 scoring defense last year. And what the hell, let's get our nerd on and go Next Level here: The Steelers rushed five or more at the fifth-highest rate in 2011 (41.3 percent). Prior to his injury (2010), Manning's Total QBR against such pressure ranked just 15th.

Joe Flacco, Ravens: Yes, I like Torrey Smith here, but otherwise, this game is all Mr. Ray Rice. Last year, Flacco averaged just 12 fantasy points a game against the Bengals, and while the Ravens were all high-flying in the preseason, they were in last year's preseason too. Against the Bengals' top-10 pass defense from last season (even one that's banged up), Flacco is no better than "QB2" this week.

Running backs I love

Matt Forte, Bears: I'm in a league where you can start any player you want, but you can use him only once a season. This week, one of my running backs is Matt Forte. Say it with me kids: We believe in life, liberty and the pursuit of running backs facing the Colts.

DeAngelo Williams, RB, Panthers: Only if Jonathan Stewart doesn't play. He's missed two straight days of practice as of this writing.

Doug Martin, Buccaneers: Rookie running back, new offense playing a different-looking defense with some new players and guys back from injury ... no idea what's going to go down here. So this is a total gut call. I just like Doug Martin, OK? How much? More than you, OK? There. You forced me to say it. It's not that you're not special, you are, but yes, since you must know, I like him more. There. You happy? (And thus concludes the portion of today's column where I treat my readers like my crazy jealous high school girlfriend would).

Isaac Redman or Jonathan Dwyer, RB, Steelers: I'm not believing any of this Rashard Mendenhall talk for Week 1, and whoever gets the start here, I like. Feel it will be Redman, but if his hip sidelines him, go Dwyer. I'm guessing Pittsburgh will want to control the clock on the road and keep Manning on the sideline, especially with Mike Wallace still getting back up to speed. The Broncos allowed more than 126 rushing yards a game last season, and as our Scouts Inc. team notes, "Maybe the biggest weakness of the Denver defense is its interior triangle, and D.J. Williams (suspension) will not be eligible for this contest."

Kevin Smith, Lions: Not hurt yet! And pssst -- he'll get the majority of work against a team that gave up 152 yards per game on the ground last season.

Ronnie Brown, Chargers: Do I have to love every player? Can't I just admit it's last call at the fantasy nightclub and that, after drinking all night and looking around at my options, decide that if I squint my eyes, I can sorta, maybe, kinda talk myself into liking Ronnie Brown until the next morning? I can? Because they don't all have to be beauty queens, kids. Or kings. You ladies out there know what I am talking about. Are you doing the walk of shame on Tuesday morning after using Ronnie Brown? Yes. But the fact remains that I think there's no way the Chargers will risk Ryan Mathews in this game. Brown will get the majority of work, and last season, Oakland's 27th-ranked run defense allowed 24 rushes to go for 20 yards, second-most in the NFL. Hmm. Wonder if all the nerdy stats I'm dropping is also why I'm looking at 1:45 a.m.?

Michael Bush, Bears: See Forte, Matt. Gonna be enough work for Bush as a flex option in Tice's offense.

If you're desperate: Playing a Redskins running back is the truest definition of desperate (so you're not allowed to complain when it doesn't work out; you know what you're getting into here) -- but if you feel like rolling the dice on one, Evan Royster should get a lot of work as the Redskins will want to go ball control on the road to take pressure off Robert Griffin III and take the Saints' offense off the field. ... It's supposed to pour Wednesday night in East Rutherford, N.J., so I could see more running than usual, and the Giants' David Wilson looked good during the preseason, son. Real good.

Running backs I hate

Trent Richardson, Browns: I just don't know how much work he's going to get and I expect the Browns to be down quickly in this game. Just too many question marks for me to trust starting him this week.

Reggie Bush, Dolphins: Pretty sure the Texans and their fourth-ranked run defense from last season are looking at Miami and Reggie and saying, yeah, we'll take our chances with Ryan Tannehill beating us. But we're shutting down this guy. And shut him down they will.

Steven Ridley, Patriots: Only five teams in the NFL allowed fewer rushing touchdowns last season than the Titans. But here's the thing. It's not that Ridley couldn't do well here. Of course he could. Anyone on the Patriots can go off any week. It's just trying to figure out which week that'll happen, especially with their run game, that's the pain. It's the inconsistency, not the talent, that is the bugaboo here. You're damn right I went double bugaboo out of the gate. I'm playing for keeps, homeys. Homeys. That's right, I'm also taking us back to 1991. Anyway, if we know Shane Vereen is definitely out this week, I'll move Ridley up in my ranks, but right now I have him as a flex play, not as a top-20 starter the way two of my fellow rankers do.

Maurice Jones-Drew, Jaguars and Adrian Peterson, Vikings: Don't get cute. Not until we see it and know what we are dealing with in terms of playing time (MJD) and health (AP). Don't. Get. Cute.

Wide receivers I love

Percy Harvin, WR, Vikings: Don't say I don't put my money where my mouth is. If you read or heard me at all during the preseason, you probably heard one of my favorite stats I found: Once Christian Ponder took over, Harvin led NFL wide receivers in offensive touches with 100. Second-highest was Wes Welker ... with 76. And with Adrian Peterson banged up, I expect more of the same. I expect them to line Harvin up all over the field trying to find different ways to get him the ball, including in the slot.

Which brings us to this nerdy stat: The Jaguars allowed opposing quarterbacks a 68.8 completion percentage when QBs targeted slot receivers last year, the fourth-worst rate in the NFL. Jacksonville's 5.7 yards after catch per reception by slot receivers ranked seventh-worst in the league last season, while Harvin's 5.7 yards after catch per reception when lined up in the slot ranked seventh-best among 31 receivers with at least 30 targets in the slot. Bonus nerd stat: Harvin was also the only receiver of the 31 with at least 30 slot targets without a drop when lined up in the slot.

Brandon Marshall, Bears: Well, let's see ... I already like Cutler, Forte and Bush a lot in this matchup ...

Dez Bryant, Cowboys: Five total touchdowns in four career games against the Giants, and I don't want to brag or anything, but I'm pretty sure I'm starting in the secondary for New York tonight. At least, it'll look like I am.

Torrey Smith, Ravens: More stuff from the preseason. When I wasn't talking about Harvin or Brandon Marshall, I was usually discussing Torrey Smith. I get it, you may not have been able to hear me over all the slobber, but trust me, it was Torrey Smith I was getting all passionate about. And usually when I talked about Smith, I discussed his improved route running and Flacco's tendency to throw to him deep. Like, this is a typical stat I'd mention, from the wacky kids over at ESPN Stats & Information, who like to get all Next Level on you: Joe Flacco attempted a career-high 70 passes of more than 20 air yards last season, but also completed a career-low 24.3 percent of such throws. Torrey Smith was the targeted receiver on 32 of those attempts, the most by Flacco to any one receiver in a single season.

Historically, Flacco has been much better on deep balls, and I expect him to land a lot more this year on roughly the same number of deep targets to Smith. Meanwhile, last time the Ravens hosted the Bengals, Smith had six for 165 and a score. Yee-haw, Torrey Smith. Yee-damn-haw.

Eric Decker, Broncos: Another gut call, but remember how Demaryius Thomas burned Ike Taylor last year for the fightin' Tebows, er, Broncos to upset the Steelers in overtime? Well, I bet Ike Taylor does too. And I'm guessing he'll desperately want Thomas, not Decker, in this matchup. Already think Decker will be Manning's favorite target, this just helps the cause.

Nate Washington, Titans: No one realizes this, but Nate Washington had 1,000-plus yards and seven scores last year. He was Jake Locker's favorite target when Locker played; once again, there is no Kenny Britt in this game; and you think the Titans might need to score some points in this game? Yeah, me too. I don't expect the Patriots' secondary to be as bad as last season, when they gave up almost 300 passing yards a game, but I don't expect them to be lights-out in Week 1 either. I have Nate at 22 this week, all the other rankers have him in the 30s.

If you're desperate: You never like going to Revis Island, but if you have to, Steve Johnson is probably the guy to do it with. Three for 84 and eight for 75 and a score when he faced Darrelle Revis last season; Johnson is a tough matchup for Revis. ... In 14 career games against the Packers, Randy Moss has 13 touchdowns. We've talked about this on the podcast. Nate and I have a sneaky suspicion that the Niners have been playing possum with Moss in the preseason. And if they have been, this is as good a place as any to unleash him. ... Trendy Preseason Sleeper Last Season Danny Amendola (his full legal name) has consistently been Bradford's No. 1 target this preseason, and the Rams are gonna need to throw against the Lions. ... As much as I like Nate Washington, I also like Kendall Wright and could see him doing well in a game where Tennessee needs to throw.

Wide receivers I hate

Wes Welker, Patriots: I probably shouldn't even list him here. If you have Welker, you're starting him, OK? But, as I mentioned earlier, he's here because everyone else has him as a top-10 play and I have him at 18, so this is more to explain his ranking than anything. Let's get to another nerdy stat: In 2011, the Titans' defense also allowed an average of 3.0 yards after catch per reception by a wide receiver, the least of any NFL defense. Feel Welker will continue to be a great PPR play, but don't see a lot of yards-after-the-catch stuff from him, and anything deep is going to Lloyd or Hernandez. Could see a six-for-67 yards kind of day for Wes.

Mike Wallace, Steelers: Given the Steelers' offensive line issues, expect the Broncos to bring pressure, which means short outlet passes to Antonio Brown, not deep shots to Mike Wallace. Especially given Wallace reporting late and his lack of familiarity with Todd Haley's offense, I just don't love this matchup for Wallace.

Robert Meachem, Chargers: Among my favorite stats that I never got to use that much in the preseason was this one: Last year, Robert Meachem had two red zone targets. Two. Think about that: The Saints had 94 red zone targets last season. They threw for over 5,300 yards, had 46 touchdowns, and Robert Meachem had two red zone targets. Among other Saints with two red zone targets? Jed Collins and John Gilmore. Yes, they spread it around, yes, there's a lot of talent on the Saints, but you're telling me if Meachem was open he wasn't getting the ball thrown his way? At least more than twice? Maybe Drew Brees hated him. Maybe there were just too many hands and only the one ball. Or maybe, just maybe, Robert Meachem isn't very good. Which gets my vote until proven otherwise.

Demaryius Thomas, Broncos: See Decker, Eric. Think Ike Taylor is all over DT and gets his revenge.

Tight ends I love

Aaron Hernandez, Patriots: Time for another ... nerdy stat! The Titans' defense allowed 52 completions to tight ends inside the numbers last season, tied for sixth-most in the NFL, despite facing only one of the top four tight ends in that metric last season (Jimmy Graham). Aaron Hernandez (61 catches) and Rob Gronkowski (57) finished second and third, respectively, in receptions inside the numbers among tight ends. Read it now, believe it later, kids. Gronk is and will be a stud, but the year of Aaron Hernandez starts now.

Greg Olsen, Panthers: Have him as a top-10 guy this week, and as my No. 11 guy for the year based, in part, on this stat: Last year, only four quarterbacks attempted more passes to a tight end than Cam Newton. With no Jeremy Shockey, and the jury is still out on the Buccaneers' linebackers ... me likey.

Jared Cook, Titans: I may have mentioned before that the Titans need to throw in this game.

If you're desperate: Dustin Keller had 120-plus yards and two scores in two games last year against the Bills, who allowed the most fantasy points to opposing tight ends last season. ... Speaking of points allowed to opposing tight ends, the Bears and their Cover 2 allowed the sixth-most last year, and in Andrew Luck's first start, I could see Coby Fleener getting some extra love. ... Martellus Bennett seems super-motivated, especially against his former team. I could easily see Eli Manning trying to get Bennett a score against the Cowboys. ... The Dolphins are going to have to throw it to somebody. Why not Anthony Fasano?

Tight end I hate

Jacob Tamme, Broncos: In case you missed it, I'm down on the Broncos this week.

Defense/Special teams I love

Seattle Seahawks: I have them at No. 3 this week. And I'm tied for the lowest on them. All aboard, kids. The bandwagon is leaving the station.

Minnesota Vikings: Spoiler alert: With my first-round pick of the Grantland.com Bad Quarterback League, I took Blaine Gabbert. A not-horrific preseason and the addition of Justin Blackmon and Laurent Robinson do not a stud quarterback make. He'll be better, but it'll take time, and given the Vikings' ability to bring pressure (led the NFL in sacks last year) and the Jags' ability to take a sack (tied for seventh-most allowed last year), and very limited Maurice Jones-Drew? I like the Vikings at home if you don't have one of the normal stud defenses.

Buffalo Bills: Much-improved defensive line, same old Mark Sanchez.

If you're desperate: San Diego Chargers D/ST may be worth a look as Carson Palmer is still adjusting to Greg Knapp's new offense, and with limited time (read: none) in the preseason with his wideouts, I could see a pick. Or three.

Defense/Special teams I hate

San Francisco 49ers: On the road against the Packers, my guess is if you own them, you're thinking about benching them. Which I get. I'd do it too, if I owned them in any league. But you also probably spent an eighth-round pick on them, according to our average draft results, bypassing guys like Torrey Smith, Jason Witten, Cedric Benson and RG3. Which is why you don't draft a defense early. You're already gonna bench them. San Fran's defense averaged 14 fantasy points a game at home last year and just seven a game on the road.

And there you have it. Week 1's Love/Hate officially in the book. Good luck this season. Hope you win, but more importantly, hope you're not "that guy."

HacheMan · Sep 5, 2012

Flex rankings: Let the games begin!

Eric Karabell

Welcome to the first fantasy flex rankings of the 2012 NFL season! If you're a regular reader of this blog, you know what this list is all about. If you're new, welcome, and here's the deal: We combine the top running backs, wide receiver and tight ends -- they are eligible for your flex position in ESPN standard leagues this season! -- into one tidy list to help you compare players across positions. By no means should this decide your actual lineups, but like all the information available to you on ESPN.com, use it as a guide.

In general, the staff rankings, of which you can sort individually by expert, and these rankings should answer most of the questions you're wondering about, and you also can ask us in chats or on Twitter (I am @karabellespn). So take a look, and hopefully we save you time! By the way, I'm scheduled to chat every Wednesday at 3 p.m. ET. Here is today's link.

<offer>Good luck in Week 1!</offer>
<offer></offer>
<offer>1. Arian Foster, RB, Texans: Still the best, but secure his backup for future weeks, if you can.
2. LeSean McCoy, RB, Eagles
3. Ray Rice, RB, Ravens
4. Chris Johnson, RB, Titans: Yep, he's going to bounce back nicely. The only concern this week, and it's a mild one, is that it could be a shootout, with the quarterbacks doing most of the work.
5. Darren McFadden, RB, Raiders: Concerns about his health are basically for every week after this one.
6. Calvin Johnson, WR, Lions
7. Matt Forte, RB, Bears
8. Larry Fitzgerald, WR, Cardinals: I have to admit I like him better with John Skelton at quarterback, but it really wouldn't have mattered much.
9. Andre Johnson, WR, Texans: Like McFadden, it's after this week when durability factors in.
10. Steven Jackson, RB, Rams
11. DeMarco Murray, RB, Cowboys: If you're reading this Thursday, just remove all the Cowboys and Giants who played Wednesday.
12. Julio Jones, WR, Falcons
13. Victor Cruz, WR, Giants
14. Jamaal Charles, RB, Chiefs: As long as he gets double-digit carries, he can make a lot happen.
15. Frank Gore, RB, 49ers: Not too worried about a crowded backfield. He's still the leading man.
16. Michael Turner, RB, Falcons: I think we'll find that reports of his falling off the proverbial cliff this year were premature.
17. Brandon Marshall, WR, Bears: Nice matchup, but he'll be ranked well every week.
18. Reggie Bush, RB, Dolphins
19. Roddy White, WR, Falcons: Bargain!
20. Dez Bryant, WR, Cowboys
21. Ahmad Bradshaw, RB, Giants
22. Wes Welker, WR, Patriots: I'm not particularly concerned about his falling short of 100 receptions.
23. Hakeem Nicks, WR, Giants
24. Marshawn Lynch, RB, Seahawks: Has tortured fantasy owners in the past on game day, so be prepared in case he does not suit up.
25. Doug Martin, RB, Buccaneers
26. Jimmy Graham, TE, Saints
27. Vincent Jackson, WR, Buccaneers: I'm not saying the Bucs win half their games, but I could see this team vastly improved offensively.
28. Rob Gronkowski, TE, Patriots
29. A.J. Green, WR, Bengals
30. DeAngelo Williams, RB, Panthers: Gets this high a ranking because his time-share partner is dealing with a sprained ankle and might not play.
31. Percy Harvin, WR, Vikings: Is going to have a big season and should be active regardless of weekly matchups.
32. Fred Jackson, RB, Bills
33. Antonio Brown, WR, Steelers: It's not surprising he's ranked ahead of his colleague, but in Week 2 that likely will change.
34. Greg Jennings, WR, Packers: Not the best matchup for the Packers offense.
35. Steve Smith, WR, Panthers: He totaled five fantasy points in two games against the lowly Buccaneers last year, though that really has little bearing on this rank.
36. Jordy Nelson, WR, Packers
37. Trent Richardson, RB, Browns: Expect him to play, but be prepared in case he doesn't.
38. Marques Colston, WR, Saints
39. Mike Wallace, WR, Steelers: He's a terrific player and really shouldn't be discounted much this first week. He's ready to play.
40. Stevan Ridley, RB, Patriots: He inherits starting duties from the next fellow, and I like him better.
41. BenJarvus Green-Ellis, RB, Bengals
42. Torrey Smith, WR, Ravens: Breakout season ahead, and this is a secondary he can do damage against.
43. Brandon Lloyd, WR, Patriots: Hey, if you think he's going to lead all wide receivers in fantasy scoring again, go for it. In 2010, he didn't have Welker and Gronk as teammates.
44. Rashad Jennings, RB, Jaguars: Being overrated a bit, and I bet it's more of a time share this week than anyone expects.
45. Miles Austin, WR, Cowboys
46. Toby Gerhart, RB, Vikings: Move him up into nice starting flex range if his more famous colleague sits.
47. Eric Decker, WR, Broncos
48. Shonn Greene, RB, Jets: Finally, a Jet! Don't even look at the preseason numbers; Greene will get his numbers.
49. Steve Johnson, WR, Bills
50. Darren Sproles, RB, Saints: A little banged up with a knee issue.
51. Kevin Smith, RB, Lions: Always a little banged up with some issue. Do yourself a favor and get Mikel Leshoure before Week 3.
52. Jeremy Maclin, WR, Eagles
53. Donald Brown, RB, Colts
54. Santonio Holmes, WR, Jets
55. Cedric Benson, RB, Packers: A starting running back who few seem to relish.
56. Beanie Wells, RB, Cardinals: A starting running back who makes it difficult to relish.
57. Antonio Gates, TE, Chargers
58. Reggie Wayne, WR, Colts: Has a legit quarterback again, and he probably has more left in the tank than it appears.
59. DeSean Jackson, WR, Eagles: It's presumed that he's motivated, so hopefully that doesn't change. He's capable of big things again.
60. Willis McGahee, RB, Broncos
61. Demaryius Thomas, WR, Broncos: If you can get him at a discount because people think Decker is preferred, go for it.
62. Peyton Hillis, RB, Chiefs
63. Dwayne Bowe, WR, Chiefs
64. Maurice Jones-Drew, RB, Jaguars: By next week, he'll be back in the top 10. Seriously.
65. Robert Meachem, WR, Chargers
66. Nate Washington, WR, Titans: A pretty good week to have him active, before Kenny Britt is playing.
67. Pierre Garcon, WR, Redskins
68. Ronnie Brown, RB, Chargers: Earns this rank on volume of touches, not ability.
69. Malcom Floyd, WR, Chargers
70. Vernon Davis, TE, 49ers
71. Kendall Wright, WR, Titans: His season value is dependent on Britt as well.
72. C.J. Spiller, RB, Bills: Could be a really good player if given the touches.
73. Isaac Redman, RB, Steelers: Messy situation in this backfield, especially if Rashard Mendenhall plays.
74. Jermichael Finley, TE, Packers
75. Denarius Moore, WR, Raiders
76. Aaron Hernandez, TE, Patriots: What if he's the Patriots tight end who reaches double digits in touchdowns this year?
77. Lance Moore, WR, Saints: Pretty good touchdown guy himself.
78. Pierre Thomas, RB, Saints
79. Anquan Boldin, WR, Ravens
80. Ben Tate, RB, Texans: If they're up a few scores at halftime, he'll get more looks afterward.
81. Fred Davis, TE, Redskins
82. Tony Gonzalez, TE, Falcons: Ageless.
83. Michael Crabtree, WR, 49ers: Certainly some potential for a shootout, but this rank doesn't speak to his helping much in that regard.
84. Michael Bush, RB, Bears
85. Jonathan Stewart, RB, Panthers: Probably not going to play, but if the news is good Sunday morning, he should matter.
86. Justin Blackmon, WR, Jaguars: This passing offense has to improve, right?
87. Adrian Peterson, RB, Vikings: The biggest wild card of the week, but be careful here.
88. Greg Little, WR, Browns
89. Mark Ingram, RB, Saints
90. Titus Young, WR, Lions: Time for this sleeper to put up big numbers.
91. Roy Helu, RB, Redskins: When anyone figures out what Mike Shanahan will do with his backfield, please let the rest of us know.
92. David Wilson, RB, Giants
93. Darrius Heyward-Bey, WR, Raiders
94. Danny Amendola, WR, Rams: Move him way up in PPR formats.
95. Felix Jones, RB, Cowboys
96. Jared Cook, TE, Titans
97. Sidney Rice, WR, Seahawks
98. Davone Bess, WR, Dolphins
99. Evan Royster, RB, Redskins
100. Mike Williams, WR, Buccaneers
Others to watch, in order: Daniel Thomas, RB, Dolphins; Brandon Pettigrew, TE, Lions; Brandon LaFell, WR, Panthers; Shane Vereen, RB, Patriots; LeGarrette Blount, RB, Buccaneers; Jonathan Dwyer, RB, Steelers; Ryan Williams, RB, Cardinals; Jacquizz Rodgers, RB, Falcons; Alshon Jeffery, WR, Bears; Mario Manningham, WR, 49ers.</offer>

HacheMan · Sep 6, 2012

Is Kevin Ogletree worth picking up?

Eric Karabell

Perhaps my favorite illustration of the overrated Week 1 wide receiver who became way too popular with fantasy owners was Frisman Jackson of the 2005 Cleveland Browns. Jackson caught eight passes for 128 yards and a touchdown from Trent Dilfer that opening weekend, and immediately the attention followed. Thankfully, there was no Twitter to explode back then. As often happens with players of Jackson's ilk, Jackson was added in many leagues while also wisely denounced by those that analyze fantasy football for a living; he caught 16 passes the rest of the year and left the NFL that winter.

Let's be clear: I don't feel that way about Dallas Cowboys wide receiver Kevin Ogletree. Fast forward to today, and the two most popular people on Twitter appear to be Ogletree and former President Bill Clinton. One of these guys is actually going to matter in fantasy football this season, but be slightly careful about whom you part with to make it happen. In fact, while I can't begin to admit to expecting eight catches for 114 yards and two touchdowns in Wednesday's opening night win over the New York Giants, the fact is Ogletree has been discussed in this space of late as someone to keep an eye on, though my reasoning focused on opportunity due to the health of those atop the Dallas depth chart, not his ability.

Say what you will about Tony Romo, but this is clearly a productive fantasy quarterback, and his top three receiving options have all been at less than 100 percent health over the past few weeks. Wide receivers Dez Bryant and Miles Austin and tight end Jason Witten all played Wednesday to varying degrees of success, which figured to make irrelevant whoever was waiting in the wings as the No. 3 wide receiver. Opportunity still existed long-term, and Ogletree saw a lot of reps this preseason along with Dwayne Harris. From what I read, Ogletree had earned the No. 3 wide receiver job, which might not matter on most NFL teams for fantasy, but last season Laurent Robinson emerged for 11 touchdowns when he got the chance. He wisely parlayed his numbers into big money in Jacksonville, where he cannot possibly repeat his performance.

Ogletree isn't a rookie; he's in his fourth season out of Virginia and had barely played prior to Wednesday. He began the week owned in fewer than half a percent of ESPN standard leagues, and by this time next week, he might be more popular than Robinson, owned in roughly 65 percent of standard leagues. Think about that for a minute. Would I argue this? Well, sharp minds can debate the future of Jaguars quarterback Blaine Gabbert and the team's passing offense, but last season three Cowboys wide receivers certainly were relevant. No Jaguars were.

On Wednesday, the Giants either barely covered Ogletree, or he was just very good at getting open. The result was elite production: 23 standard fantasy points. For perspective, we all seem to agree that Detroit Lions wide receiver Calvin Johnson is the best in the biz: Last year, he didn't reach 23 fantasy points in a game until Week 15. It's obvious and simplistic to state Ogletree won't do this again; heck, it's possible only 10 or so wide receivers will do this all season. You know I'm going to say this is an aberrant performance, but I do think this is a top-50 wide receiver moving forward.

I joked on Twitter that Ogletree is the next Robinson, and there could be some truth to that. For one, I don't trust Austin to stay healthy. He was relatively quiet much of Wednesday night until hauling in a 34-yard touchdown late, and after missing nearly half of last season with hamstring problems was still being held back by them this August. I'm betting he plays in fewer than 16 games. Bryant is an elite talent with, as the Cowboys-hired posse of protectors can attest, off-field questions. Surely, 16 games from Bryant is far from assured. Plus, while everyone treats him as a potential fantasy monster, we're still waiting for the second 100-yard receiving game of his career. He's not Calvin Johnson in terms of production. Ogletree is 25 and probably had the game of his life, but in an offense like this and with the top weapons under suspicion -- we haven't even discussed Witten and his risky future -- a guy like him matters.

It's dangerous to overreact to one performance, and next week I can't imagine Ogletree forcing his way into my top 25 wide receivers, but he's likely an upgrade for most in 10- and 12-team leagues for the final wide receiver spot. Robinson, for example, barely cracked our top 50 at the position for Week 1 after we chopped Wednesday's participants. Using others we barely ranked as a gauge, I'd cut Robinson, Mario Manningham, Doug Baldwin, Leonard Hankerson, Alshon Jeffery, Davone Bess and Randy Moss to sign -- not trade for -- Ogletree. I'm hardly expecting 1,000 receiving yards or double-digit touchdowns, but in a good offense like Dallas, he's going to matter, and if injury strikes others, could matter a lot.

HacheMan · Sep 6, 2012

Love the game, hate 'that guy'

By Matthew Berry | ESPN.com

Game Day.

Finally here, kids. Merry Chistmakah. Not sure why opening kickoff to the NFL season isn't a national holiday, but it should be. Could we at least get a stamp? Maybe we vote on one? Like between fat Rex Ryan and skinny Rex Ryan? Props if you get the reference.

Among the reasons for the excitement, of course, is that the start of the NFL season is also the start of the fantasy football season. And if my Twitter and Facebook> accounts are any indication, more people than ever before are playing fantasy this year. Which is, you know, awesome.

But as in any new situation, people playing for the first time may not know all the rules of etiquette. That's where I come in. Whether you are a newbie or a longtime player, it never hurts to get a refresher course. So as you enter into this fantasy football season, I wish you luck with your sleepers. I pray your players avoid injury. But mostly, I desperately hope you're not ... "that guy."

"That guy" shows up to your draft with an out-of-date magazine. And then wants a do-over when he finds out the guy he just drafted is out for the year. Or worse, tries to bum your cheat sheet. Get your own sleepers, hoss.

Or "that guy" shows up with 10 magazines and tons of printouts. And then has the clock run out when he can't figure out which guy he wants.

Or "that guy" says to the clueless guy drafting right before you, "Oh, you need a tight end? Take Jared Cook. Matthew needs a tight end, so he'll probably pick him next unless you get him." Worry about your own team and don't mention players that haven't been drafted, OK?

"That guy" pretends to draft T.J. Houshmandzadeh, mangles his name and then says "Championship." It was funny six years ago, dude.

"That guy" talks all sorts of smack at the draft about how bad everyone else's picks are. And has never won. Or he talks about how loaded his team is. In the third round. Or has a critique after every pick. If I wanted play-by-play, I'd have brought Mike Tirico. Settle down, sailor.

"That guy" has a terrible team name. I'm all for adult humor as long as it's clever, but if it would make an 8-year-old laugh, it's not only hacky, its lazy and unoriginal. I'm talking to you, people who named a team after Isaiah Pead.

"That guy" makes terrible trade offers. No, I do not want to trade my second-round pick, Jamaal Charles, for your 10th-rounder, Tony Gonzalez. That is an actual trade offer I got this week. If you wouldn't do it in reverse, don't offer it.

"That guy" won't respond to trade emails. Hey, you don't want to do the deal, fine, just say a quick "no thanks." Are you in this league or not? Oh, you are? Then you respond to an inquiry like a civilized human being.

"That guy," however, won't take no for an answer. If you do get a response of "no," you're allowed to send a follow-up email saying, "Well, is there anything you'd consider for so-and-so?" But after that? Walk away, brother. The only person who likes begging less than a woman is a fantasy league owner.

"That guy" takes the full time on his draft pick. With the very first pick. Or the last kicker pick.

"That guy" cheers for injuries of players. It's a violent game and injuries provide opportunity for other fantasy players, but come on. It's a human being and their health, livelihood, and family's livelihood is at stake.

By that same token, "that guy" is the sort of person who took to Twitter last year to yell at Adrian Peterson, Arian Foster or Jamaal Charles about how they are ruining his fantasy team, which happened a lot to all three men. In fact, "that guy" is anyone who directs anger at someone on Twitter or Facebook about fantasy football. It's a game played with an oblong-shaped leather ball. Stuff happens and it's a game we play for fun. Calm the hell down.

"That guy" doesn't pay attention during the draft, calls out guys who have already been taken, and is late meeting any league requirements. If you can't follow through, don't play. And if you can, don't make me chase you down. Seriously.

"That guy" is a sexist. Won't let a woman in his league or thinks it's the end of the world when he loses to a woman. Some of the smartest sports people I know and best fantasy players I've seen are women. And I've yet to meet one who was "that guy," which is why this column isn't asking you not to be "that person." Everyone plays. Get used to it and get better.

Having said that, don't be "that guy" who brings his non-playing girlfriend or wife to the draft. If you're not in the league, you're not invited.

"That guy" brags about his auto-picked team. Or worse, complains about it. Hey, you can't make the draft, that's on you. Or how about "that guy" who has known about the draft for weeks and then just doesn't show up, with no warning, and doesn't answer calls or texts?

"That guy" gets mad at you for drafting "his" player. Yeah, you're right. No one else wanted Doug Martin this year. Just you. Or worse, brags weeks into the season about his "sleeper" panning out. Yep, dude, no one else saw a big year coming from Brandon Marshall.

"That guy" needs to tell you about his team. Look, I'm paid to care about your team. Tell me. Everyone else? They care about your team as much as you care about theirs. Your fantasy team is the new golfing story or vacation pictures.

"That guy" is a rankings slave. I do rankings for a living and I'm the first to admit it's a loose guideline to help with market evaluation. Think for yourself. And if you can't, then why are you even playing?

"That guy" vetoes a trade because it doesn't involve him or her. Hate the veto guy. Win on the virtual field, not in legal loopholes. Trade negotiation is part of fantasy skill. As long as both trade partners think they are improving their team, the trade should stand. Doesn't matter if you don't agree. Not your team, genius. You're not the judge. Unless there is collusion, no trade should ever be overturned.

"That guy" says words like "never" or "no way that will happen." The kind of guy who probably said last year, "What are you doing taking Cam Newton? Rookie quarterbacks never pan out."

"That guy" complains about what would have been. "If only I'd started (a scrub who went off) instead of (a star who underperformed), I'd have won!" Yeah, but you didn't, did you? Because no one in their right mind would have started said scrub over said star. It happens. Get over it.

"That guy" is an Internet tough guy. If you wouldn't say it in real life, don't say it behind a screen name. And unless it's lifelong friends, keep the smack about the team and keep the personal insults to yourself. And if you dish it out, you better be able to take it. Often the biggest whiner is the guy who sends out the most.

"That guy" loses interest after his team falls out of it, doesn't set players during a bye or replace injured players. You made a commitment. Even if the league doesn't matter to you, it matters to us, so try your best or don't play at all.

"That guy" abuses the waiver wire, picking up players and immediately waiving them, and does this over and over to try to pollute the pool and make it so people can't grab free agents. That's not strategy, that means you have no life. Again, win on the field, not in some sort of technology loophole. (Don't bother trying it in an ESPN.com league, either. We have safeguards against those kinds of shenanigans.)

But mostly, "that guy" ruins your enjoyment of the greatest game ever invented. Don't be "that guy."

What did I miss? When I talked about "that guy" last year, a lot of you had some great comments to make about it, so have at it. What drives you crazy in a league when "that guy" is in it? While you answer that, we meander slowly to the first Love/Hate of the year. Get used to the meandering slowly through the column before we get to the fantasy info. Also, understand that this is not a pure start/sit column. Want to know whom to start and whom to sit? Read my ranks, updated throughout the week, and find the two players you are wondering about. Whomever I have ranked higher is whom I would start.

This column is basically a rankings reaction or explanation of players who I am higher or lower on than my fellow ESPN rankers. Use your brain. Just because Wes Welker (ranked 18th by me this week) is a "hate" and Nate Washington (ranked No. 22) is a "Love" doesn't mean I would start Nate over Wes. No, I have Wes ranked higher than Nate, so that is whom I would start. But my rank for Nate is much higher than others have him ranked, and my rank for Wes is lower than others' ranks, so that's why they make the cut; you'll read my explanation about why below.

Finally, just a reminder that "Fantasy Football Now," our Emmy-award winning fantasy show, expands to two hours this year. Every Sunday morning, 11 a.m. to 1 p.m. ET, on ESPN2 and WatchESPN. Tune in before kickoff!

And away we go.

Quarterbacks I love

Matthew Stafford, Lions: A super-obvious name, I'm including him here just because I have a cool stat that I want to show off. What? Hey! Simmer down, there. You got a choice. Either I get to show off my nerdy stat or it's more self-involved stories about me ... that's what I thought.

The nerdy stat: Last year, Matthew Stafford faced four or fewer pass-rushers on 75.4 percent of his drop backs, second-highest in the NFL. Only Aaron Rodgers (plus-25) had a better touchdown-to-interception differential than Stafford (plus-24) against such rushes.

Not bad, right? But then check this: From 2008 to 2010, coach Jeff Fisher's Titans rushed four or fewer pass-rushers on 76.3 percent of plays, the second-highest rate over that span.

Booyah! That's right. Just took 118 words to tell you that Matthew Stafford is good and you want to start him against the Rams. Who says I'm all substance? What? No one says that? Ah. Very well then. Let's get to fantasy kryptonite, post-haste.

Michael Vick, Eagles: We all have him at seven, but he's here for this simple reason: I've gotten a lot of questions about Vick's hands, ribs, lack of preseason practice, the Browns' second-best pass defense last year, blah blah blah ... do we start Vick in Week 1? It's really simple. If you own Vick, you're a believer. You bought in, so no backing out now. This is the kind of matchup you want. The Browns' No. 2 pass defense last year was a joke; it's only because teams ran all over them. If you own him, you're starting Vick.

Jay Cutler, Bears Show-offy nerd stat alert: Jay Cutler was sacked or under duress (forced to move or alter a throw due to pressure) on 34.2 percent of his drop-backs last season, the second-highest rate in the NFL. (Tim Tebow had more. Of course he did.) But! Cutler completed 47.8 percent of his passes under duress, the fourth-best rate in the NFL. With Brandon Marshall in town, I'm feeling that Cutler wants to take his new toy for a spin, and who better to do it against the Colts, who were tied for allowing the sixth-most pass plays of 20-plus yards last season and were last in interceptions, which is always Cutler's bugaboo. Did I drop a "bugaboo" three players in? You're damn right I did. It's Week 1! All bets are off!

Russell Wilson, Seahawks: Last year, a rookie quarterback started in Week 1 against the Cardinals and that worked out pretty well. I like what I've seen of Wilson so far in the preseason, and with Marshawn Lynch less than 100 percent, the Seahawks will need to throw. With a rookie back there, the Cards may bring more pressure, but I'm OK with that. Wilson is mobile, and the ability to get rushing yards will help. Only five teams had fewer interceptions last year than the Cardinals.

If you're desperate (in a deeper league, start two quarterbacks, are scrambling for a replacement for whatever reason): I realize Carson Palmer has struggled this preseason, but Palmer's turnover issues come from when he gets pressure. When the Chargers brought pressure last year, they allowed the highest QBR of any opposing quarterback. And in five career starts versus San Diego, Palmer has 13 scores, just three picks and over 1,700 passing yards. ... Also, Sam Bradford has looked good this preseason, and do you think a game with Detroit might turn into a shootout? Me too.

Quarterbacks I Hate

Peyton Manning, Broncos: It's the first game in over a year for Peyton, there's still gonna be some rust, and while the Steelers won't have Ryan Clark, they still had the No. 1 passing defense and No. 1 scoring defense last year. And what the hell, let's get our nerd on and go Next Level here: The Steelers rushed five or more at the fifth-highest rate in 2011 (41.3 percent). Prior to his injury (2010), Manning's Total QBR against such pressure ranked just 15th.

Joe Flacco, Ravens: Yes, I like Torrey Smith here, but otherwise, this game is all Mr. Ray Rice. Last year, Flacco averaged just 12 fantasy points a game against the Bengals, and while the Ravens were all high-flying in the preseason, they were in last year's preseason too. Against the Bengals' top-10 pass defense from last season (even one that's banged up), Flacco is no better than "QB2" this week.

Running backs I love

Matt Forte, Bears: I'm in a league where you can start any player you want, but you can use him only once a season. This week, one of my running backs is Matt Forte. Say it with me, kids: We believe in life, liberty and the pursuit of running backs facing the Colts.

DeAngelo Williams, RB, Panthers: Only if Jonathan Stewart doesn't play. He's missed two straight days of practice as of this writing.

Doug Martin, Buccaneers: Rookie running back, new offense playing a different-looking defense with some new players and guys back from injury ... no idea what's going to go down here. So this is a total gut call. I just like Doug Martin, OK? How much? More than you, OK? There. You forced me to say it. It's not that you're not special, you are, but yes, since you must know, I like him more. There. You happy? (And thus concludes the portion of today's column where I treat my readers like my crazy jealous high school girlfriend).

Isaac Redman or Jonathan Dwyer, RB, Steelers: I'm not believing any of this Rashard Mendenhall talk for Week 1, and whoever gets the start here, I like. Feel it will be Redman, but if his hip sidelines him, go Dwyer. I'm guessing Pittsburgh will want to control the clock on the road and keep Manning on the sideline, especially with Mike Wallace still getting back up to speed. The Broncos allowed more than 126 rushing yards a game last season, and as our Scouts Inc. team notes, "Maybe the biggest weakness of the Denver defense is its interior triangle, and D.J. Williams (suspension) will not be eligible for this contest."

Kevin Smith, Lions: Not hurt yet! And pssst -- he'll get the majority of work against a team that gave up 152 yards per game on the ground last season.

Ronnie Brown, Chargers: Do I have to love every player? Can't I just admit it's last call at the fantasy nightclub and that, after drinking all night and looking around at my options, decide that if I squint my eyes, I can sorta, maybe, kinda talk myself into liking Ronnie Brown until the next morning? I can? Because they don't all have to be beauty queens, kids. Or kings. You ladies out there know what I am talking about. Are you doing the walk of shame on Tuesday morning after using Ronnie Brown? Yes. But the fact remains that I think there's no way the Chargers will risk Ryan Mathews in this game. Brown will get the majority of work, and last season, Oakland's 27th-ranked run defense allowed 24 rushes to go for 20 yards, second-most in the NFL. Hmm. Wonder if all the nerdy stats I'm dropping is also why I'm looking at 1:45 a.m.?

Michael Bush, Bears: See Forte, Matt. Gonna be enough work for Bush as a flex option in Tice's offense.

If you're desperate: Playing a Redskins running back is the truest definition of desperate (so you're not allowed to complain when it doesn't work out; you know what you're getting into here) -- but if you feel like rolling the dice on one, Evan Royster should get a lot of work as the Redskins will want to go ball control on the road to take pressure off Robert Griffin III and take the Saints' offense off the field. ... It's supposed to pour Wednesday night in East Rutherford, N.J., so I could see more running than usual, and the Giants' David Wilson looked good during the preseason, son. Real good.

Running backs I hate

Trent Richardson, Browns: I just don't know how much work he's going to get and I expect the Browns to be down quickly in this game. Just too many question marks for me to trust starting him this week.

Reggie Bush, Dolphins: Pretty sure the Texans and their fourth-ranked run defense from last season are looking at Miami and Reggie and saying, yeah, we'll take our chances with Ryan Tannehill beating us. But we're shutting down this guy. And shut him down they will.

Steven Ridley, Patriots: Only five teams in the NFL allowed fewer rushing touchdowns last season than the Titans. But here's the thing. It's not that Ridley couldn't do well here. Of course he could. Anyone on the Patriots can go off any week. It's just trying to figure out which week that'll happen, especially with their run game, that's the pain. It's the inconsistency, not the talent, that is the bugaboo here. You're damn right I went double bugaboo out of the gate. I'm playing for keeps, homeys. Homeys. That's right, I'm also taking us back to 1991. Anyway, if we know Shane Vereen is definitely out this week, I'll move Ridley up in my ranks, but right now I have him as a flex play, not as a top-20 starter the way two of my fellow rankers do.

Maurice Jones-Drew, Jaguars and Adrian Peterson, Vikings: Don't get cute. Not until we see it and know what we are dealing with in terms of playing time (MJD) and health (AP). Don't. Get. Cute.

Wide receivers I love

Percy Harvin, WR, Vikings: Don't say I don't put my money where my mouth is. If you read or heard me at all during the preseason, you probably heard one of my favorite stats I found: Once Christian Ponder took over, Harvin led NFL wide receivers in offensive touches with 100. Second-highest was Wes Welker ... with 76. And with Adrian Peterson banged up, I expect more of the same. I expect them to line Harvin up all over the field trying to find different ways to get him the ball, including in the slot.

Which brings us to this nerdy stat: The Jaguars allowed opposing quarterbacks a 68.8 completion percentage when QBs targeted slot receivers last year, the fourth-worst rate in the NFL. Jacksonville's 5.7 yards after catch per reception by slot receivers ranked seventh-worst in the league last season, while Harvin's 5.7 yards after catch per reception when lined up in the slot ranked seventh-best among 31 receivers with at least 30 targets in the slot. Bonus nerd stat: Harvin was also the only receiver of the 31 with at least 30 slot targets without a drop when lined up in the slot.

Brandon Marshall, Bears: Well, let's see ... I already like Cutler, Forte and Bush a lot in this matchup ...

Dez Bryant, Cowboys: Five total touchdowns in four career games against the Giants, and I don't want to brag or anything, but I'm pretty sure I'm starting in the secondary for New York tonight. At least, it'll look like I am.

Torrey Smith, Ravens: More stuff from the preseason. When I wasn't talking about Harvin or Brandon Marshall, I was usually discussing Torrey Smith. I get it, you may not have been able to hear me over all the slobber, but trust me, it was Torrey Smith I was getting all passionate about. And usually when I talked about Smith, I discussed his improved route running and Flacco's tendency to throw to him deep. Like, this is a typical stat I'd mention, from the wacky kids over at ESPN Stats & Information, who like to get all Next Level on you: Joe Flacco attempted a career-high 70 passes of more than 20 air yards last season, but also completed a career-low 24.3 percent of such throws. Torrey Smith was the targeted receiver on 32 of those attempts, the most by Flacco to any one receiver in a single season.

Historically, Flacco has been much better on deep balls, and I expect him to land a lot more this year on roughly the same number of deep targets to Smith. Meanwhile, last time the Ravens hosted the Bengals, Smith had six for 165 and a score. Yee-haw, Torrey Smith. Yee-damn-haw.

Eric Decker, Broncos: Another gut call, but remember how Demaryius Thomas burned Ike Taylor last year for the fightin' Tebows, er, Broncos to upset the Steelers in overtime? Well, I bet Ike Taylor does, too. And I'm guessing he'll desperately want Thomas, not Decker, in this matchup. Already think Decker will be Manning's favorite target; this just helps the cause.

Nate Washington, Titans: No one realizes this, but Nate Washington had 1,000-plus yards and seven scores last year. He was Jake Locker's favorite target when Locker played; once again, there is no Kenny Britt in this game; and you think the Titans might need to score some points in this game? Yeah, me too. I don't expect the Patriots' secondary to be as bad as last season, when they gave up almost 300 passing yards a game, but I don't expect them to be lights-out in Week 1 either. I have Nate at 22 this week, all the other rankers have him in the 30s.

If you're desperate: You never like going to Revis Island, but if you have to, Steve Johnson is probably the guy to do it with. Three for 84 and eight for 75 and a score when he faced Darrelle Revis last season; Johnson is a tough matchup for Revis. ... In 14 career games against the Packers, Randy Moss has 13 touchdowns. We've talked about this on the podcast. Nate and I have a sneaky suspicion that the Niners have been playing possum with Moss in the preseason. And if they have been, this is as good a place as any to unleash him. ... Trendy Preseason Sleeper Last Season Danny Amendola (his full legal name) has consistently been Bradford's No. 1 target this preseason, and the Rams are gonna need to throw against the Lions. ... As much as I like Nate Washington, I also like Kendall Wright and could see him doing well in a game where Tennessee needs to throw.

Wide receivers I hate

Wes Welker, Patriots: I probably shouldn't even list him here. If you have Welker, you're starting him, OK? But, as I mentioned earlier, he's here because everyone else has him as a top-10 play and I have him at 18, so this is more to explain his ranking than anything. Let's get to another nerdy stat: In 2011, the Titans' defense also allowed an average of 3.0 yards after catch per reception by a wide receiver, the least of any NFL defense. Feel Welker will continue to be a great PPR play, but don't see a lot of yards-after-the-catch stuff from him, and anything deep is going to Lloyd or Hernandez. Could see a six-for-67 yards kind of day for Wes.

Mike Wallace, Steelers: Given the Steelers' offensive line issues, expect the Broncos to bring pressure, which means short outlet passes to Antonio Brown, not deep shots to Mike Wallace. Especially given Wallace reporting late and his lack of familiarity with Todd Haley's offense, I just don't love this matchup for Wallace.

Robert Meachem, Chargers: Among my favorite stats that I never got to use that much in the preseason was this one: Last year, Robert Meachem had two red zone targets. Two. Think about that: The Saints had 94 red zone targets last season. They threw for over 5,300 yards, had 46 touchdowns, and Robert Meachem had two red zone targets. Among other Saints with two red zone targets? Jed Collins and John Gilmore. Yes, they spread it around, yes, there's a lot of talent on the Saints, but you're telling me if Meachem was open he wasn't getting the ball thrown his way? At least more than twice? Maybe Drew Brees hated him. Maybe there were just too many hands and only the one ball. Or maybe, just maybe, Robert Meachem isn't very good. Which gets my vote until proven otherwise.

Demaryius Thomas, Broncos: See Decker, Eric. Think Ike Taylor is all over DT and gets his revenge.

Tight ends I love

Aaron Hernandez, Patriots: Time for another ... nerdy stat! The Titans' defense allowed 52 completions to tight ends inside the numbers last season, tied for sixth-most in the NFL, despite facing only one of the top four tight ends in that metric last season (Jimmy Graham). Aaron Hernandez (61 catches) and Rob Gronkowski (57) finished second and third, respectively, in receptions inside the numbers among tight ends. Read it now, believe it later, kids. Gronk is and will be a stud, but the year of Aaron Hernandez starts now.

Greg Olsen, Panthers: Have him as a top-10 guy this week, and as my No. 11 guy for the year based, in part, on this stat: Last year, only four quarterbacks attempted more passes to a tight end than Cam Newton. With no Jeremy Shockey, and the jury is still out on the Buccaneers' linebackers ... me likey.

Jared Cook, Titans: I may have mentioned before that the Titans need to throw in this game.

If you're desperate: Dustin Keller had 120-plus yards and two scores in two games last year against the Bills, who allowed the most fantasy points to opposing tight ends last season. ... Speaking of points allowed to opposing tight ends, the Bears and their Cover 2 allowed the sixth-most last year, and in Andrew Luck's first start, I could see Coby Fleener getting some extra love. ... Martellus Bennett seems super-motivated, especially against his former team. I could easily see Eli Manning trying to get Bennett a score against the Cowboys. ... The Dolphins are going to have to throw it to somebody. Why not Anthony Fasano?

Tight end I hate

Jacob Tamme, Broncos: In case you missed it, I'm down on the Broncos this week.

Defense/Special teams I love

Seattle Seahawks: I have them at No. 3 this week. And I'm tied for the lowest on them. All aboard, kids. The bandwagon is leaving the station.

Minnesota Vikings: Spoiler alert: With my first-round pick of the Grantland.com Bad Quarterback League, I took Blaine Gabbert. A not-horrific preseason and the addition of Justin Blackmon and Laurent Robinson do not a stud quarterback make. He'll be better, but it'll take time, and given the Vikings' ability to bring pressure (led the NFL in sacks last year) and the Jags' ability to take a sack (tied for seventh-most allowed last year), and very limited Maurice Jones-Drew? I like the Vikings at home if you don't have one of the normal stud defenses.

Buffalo Bills: Much-improved defensive line, same old Mark Sanchez.

If you're desperate: San Diego Chargers D/ST may be worth a look as Carson Palmer is still adjusting to Greg Knapp's new offense, and with limited time (read: none) in the preseason with his wideouts, I could see a pick. Or three.

Defense/Special teams I hate

San Francisco 49ers: On the road against the Packers, my guess is if you own them, you're thinking about benching them. Which I get. I'd do it too, if I owned them in any league. But you also probably spent an eighth-round pick on them, according to our average draft results, bypassing guys like Torrey Smith, Jason Witten, Cedric Benson and RG3. Which is why you don't draft a defense early. You're already gonna bench them. San Fran's defense averaged 14 fantasy points a game at home last year and just seven a game on the road.

And there you have it. Week 1's Love/Hate officially in the book. Good luck this season. Hope you win, but more importantly, hope you're not "that guy."