My Off Season Thread - 2014

Search

New member
Joined
Jan 9, 2009
Messages
18,212
Tokens
Russ,

Out of the teams listed below, who do you believe will finish the season ranked highest in the AP pool?

LSU
USC
Ole Miss
Kansas State
Clemson
Louisville

I would say USC - they have a motivated HC in Sarkasian. Interim HC Clay Helton remains at OC so the transition should be a positive one for the players. I like the layout of their schedule (UCLA and N. Dame are their last two games for instance). I like Justin Wilcox as the DC. The scholarship numbers are getting better and have 14 starters returning. Look out for LSU though as they have recruited well at key positions.
 

New member
Joined
Jan 9, 2009
Messages
18,212
Tokens
TEAM: Utah State

2013 – OFFENSIVE SCORING: #50 (31.8 ppg)

DEFENSIVE SCORING: #7 (17.1 ppg)

AVG POINT DIFFERENTIAL: +14.7 ppg

2013 ATS RECORD: 5-8

2013 AVERAGE RANKING: #50

PHIL STEEL EXPERIENCE RANKING: #110

PHIL STEEL TOUGHEST SCHEDULE RANKING: #106

HEAD COACH: Matt Wells ((2[SUP]nd[/SUP] yr) Alum
OFFENSIVE COORDINATOR: Luke Wells (2[SUP]nd[/SUP] yr) / Kevin McGiven (2[SUP]nd[/SUP] yr)
DEFENSIVE COORDINATOR: Todd Orlando (2[SUP]nd[/SUP] yr)

COMMENTS: QB Chuckie Keeton went down in 2013 and the Aggies finished up the year at 9-5. HC Matt Wells only has 8 starters back from last year’s team. Their experience ranking as shown above shows that this year he has his hands full but only face the #106 toughest schedule. They open up at Tenn and if they win that will have BYU and Boise St on down the road as their toughest competition. If Keeton stays healthy and they develop a running game but they have a very inexperienced OL. They may lose their opener to Tenn but if they do it will be something to build on if they keep it close.

MY PROGNOSIS: Utah St’s win total is 9.5 on my favorite line. So somebody in Vegas thinks they have a shot at a very good season. They were 11-2 in 2012. Their best case scenario would be an undefeated season. I think they wind up at 10-2 in the regular season. Worst case scenario would be 8-5 and that would require losing to Tenn, BYU, Boise St, getting upset once, and losing their bowl game. This team could be a sleeper to make the final top 25 and their ATS should improve over last year’s.
 

New member
Joined
Jan 9, 2009
Messages
18,212
Tokens
TEAM: Virginia Tech

2013 – OFFENSIVE SCORING: #99 (22.5 ppg)

DEFENSIVE SCORING: #11 (19.3 ppg)

AVG POINT DIFFERENTIAL: +3.2 ppg

2013 ATS RECORD: 4-8

2013 AVERAGE RANKING: #55

PHIL STEELE EXPERIENCE RANKING: #92

PHIL STEELE TOUGHEST SCHEDULE RANKING: #60

HEAD COACH: Frank Beamer (28[SUP]th[/SUP] yr)
OFFENSIVE COORDINATOR: Scott Loeffler (2[SUP]nd[/SUP] yr)
DEFENSIVE COORDINATOR: Bud Foster (20[SUP]th[/SUP] yr)

COMMENTS: Beamer is the dean of college football coaches and Bud Foster is the dean of college asst coaches. What a combo. Last year the Hokies struggled to an 8-5 record and their ATS record was worse at 4-8. But as usual Foster’s defense did it’s thing. They lose highly touted Logan Thomas at QB but he never really lived up to expectations. On offense they have not been able to establish a good enough running game to take pressure off of their QB. If they can improve on offense this team could be right up there. Their 3 toughest opponents are probably at Ohio St, at N. Carolina, at Pitt, and at Duke. After losing their opener to Alabama they won 6 straight games and then went downhill.

MY PROGNOSIS: If transfer QB Michael Brewer gets the starting QB job that could help big time. The Hokies have made it to the ACC title game since 2011. They should be highly motivated. Last year Logan Thomas threw 16 TD’s and 13 Int’s. I think he is replaceable. It is up to the running game, plain and simple. Best case scenario 11-1 in the regular season (probably a reach). Worst case scenario losses at Ohio St, at N. Carolina, and at Pitt. I think they can handle Duke. They get Virginia Tech the week after they play Navy and the status of Ohio St QB Miller may still be up in the air. Never give up on Beamer and Foster.
 
Last edited:

New member
Joined
Jan 9, 2009
Messages
18,212
Tokens
TEAM: Washington

2013 – OFFENSIVE SCORING: #18 (37.9 ppg)

DEFENSIVE SCORING: #29 (22.8 ppg)

AVG POINT DIFFERENTIAL: +15.1

2013 ATS RECORD: 7-6

2013 AVERAGE RANKING: 23.5

PHIL STEELE EXPERIENCE RANKING: #66

PHIL STEELE TOUGHEST SCHEDULE RANKING: #52

HEAD COACH: Chris Peterson (1[SUP]st[/SUP] yr)
OFFENSIVE COORDINATOR: Jonathon Smith (1[SUP]st[/SUP] yr)
DEFENSIVE COORDINATOR: Pete Kwiatowski (1[SUP]st[/SUP] yr)

COMMENTS: New coaches all around and 14 returning lettermen. They lose QB Price and RB Sankey both will be hard to replace at least immediately. Fortunately Wash has it pretty easy until they host Stanford on week 5. They don’t get to play against their old coach (USC) this year which might have proved interesting. They play a 13 game regular season this year.

MY PROGNOSIS: Losing HC Sarkasian should only be a temporary thing because they are getting an HC with a 92-12 record and his proven staff of assts. The schedule is not all that tough and if they can repeat their average ranking of 23.5 (off scoring ranking + def scoring ranking divided by 2) they could at least repeat last seasons record. But there are several Pac 12 teams trying to crack the final top 25. That 14[SUP]th[/SUP] game (Bowl Game) could be a make or break it of getting into the final top 25 and that would require beating Stanford and Arizona St (Wash homecoming game) and getting by at Arizona, Oregon St, and at Washington St to end the season. Best case scenario would be 3 loses. Worst case scenario would be 5 losses which would include a bowl loss. I do not see their offensive numbers matching last years.
 

New member
Joined
Jan 9, 2009
Messages
18,212
Tokens
Here are 5 teams that I think may improve on last year's ATS records. I will list the teams and also list last years ATS record:


Georgia (3-9-1)
LSU (5-7-1)
Northwestern (3-9)
Pitt (5-7-1)
Virginia Tech (4-8-1)
 

New member
Joined
Jan 9, 2009
Messages
18,212
Tokens
I am still monitoring the line changes:

With Miller out the line on Ohio St has dropped from -17 to -12.5 over Navy. I still say the Ohio St defense is the key in that one.

Notre Dame has dropped from -23 over Rice.


Finally have a line back on Auburn since they announced Marshall would not play against Arkansas. It dropped form -21.5 to -20.5.

And still no movement on the Florida State line over Oklahoma State. It has held steady at 17.5.

I think there has been some action on Alabama and UCLA and I think those lines will be moving up.
 

New member
Joined
Jan 9, 2009
Messages
18,212
Tokens
I have been handicapping for a long time now. I experiment quite a bit using different combinations of statistics and data. This season I have put together another combination and I am anxious to see how it holds up on week 1. I combine last years stats with things like coaching staffs, and returning starters and experience factors. Here is a list of the top 10 in the order of their ranking on this experimental spreadsheet.

1. Marshall 2. Miss State 3. Auburn 4. UCLA 5. Washington 6. BYU 7. Oklahoma 8. Baylor 9. Florida 10. Northwestern

There were 3 dogs that graded fairly well:

Tulane, Utah St, and N. Texas


I stress the word “experimental” but I do like this combination of stats in this spreadsheet.

I have already straight bet Marshall.

I also have made a 4 team round robin parlay (combine the same 4 teams to make (4) 3 team parlays and (1) 4 team parlay. Those 4 teams are BYU – UCLA – Miss State – Washington
BOL
 

New member
Joined
Apr 28, 2006
Messages
2,398
Tokens
I think WVU covers the 26 against Alabama. Holgerson is returning a lot of young guys that got some experience last season. If Alabama goes with Sims at Qb, it is hard for me to see them scoring in the 40s to cover the big spread. I see alabama scoring 34ish. I think WVU can get at least 13.
 

Member
Joined
Oct 16, 2004
Messages
28,799
Tokens
I think WVU covers the 26 against Alabama. Holgerson is returning a lot of young guys that got some experience last season. If Alabama goes with Sims at Qb, it is hard for me to see them scoring in the 40s to cover the big spread. I see alabama scoring 34ish. I think WVU can get at least 13.
I'm thinking along the same lines. As bad of a passing defense as WV had last year against Big 12 opponents, their rushing defense was actually pretty good. They lost 9 starting or regualr defenders to season ending injuries LY This year, even though they are a little less experienced on the DL, the coaches are pretty comfortable with these starters. And they also have more depth there going 7 deep. I also think they'll be a little better rushing the passer this season. Bama breaking in a couple new players on the line plus a new QB. WV has a couple solid RB's. But we'll just have to wait and see if their OL sucks as bad as it did last year. Trickett also needs to stay healthy. He has his moments when he can get hot passing the ball. That is when he's walking. The kid needs to learn to slide or get rid of the ball. Especially against Bama. My intiial thought on this game was to play the under 55.5. I think this could be the safer play. I know the WV fans desperately want to see this team do well. They haven't given up on them. They've sold 22,000 tickets to the game. So I don't see Bama having any kind of home field like crowd advantage in the Georgia Dome.
 

New member
Joined
Jan 9, 2009
Messages
18,212
Tokens
How often does Alabama come into a game off of a 2 game losing streak. Not touching this game.
 

I'm from the government and I'm here to help
Joined
Sep 21, 2004
Messages
33,565
Tokens
How often does Alabama come into a game off of a 2 game losing streak. Not touching this game.

last i remember was when we lost to the tebow's in SECCG and then utah in Sugar bowl in 2008/2009 season. started that title winning 2009 season with a domination of Va Tech (far worse than score dictated...yards were like 500 vs 150) covering the -6.5. was Greg McElroy's bama debut...
 

I'm from the government and I'm here to help
Joined
Sep 21, 2004
Messages
33,565
Tokens
Here are 5 teams that I think may improve on last year's ATS records. I will list the teams and also list last years ATS record:


Georgia (3-9-1)
LSU (5-7-1)
Northwestern (3-9)
Pitt (5-7-1)
Virginia Tech (4-8-1)

Pitt's offensive line is the best in the Coastal, IMHO, but if Voytik gets hurt they're dead. Trey Anderson could very well be the worst backup qb in the country and with Voytik's tendency to run when 1st WR isn't open this is a very real concern. If Voytik stays healthy and plays really well (first year starter) I think they could win the Coastal but if he gets injured they're done. If he plays ok, say a 20/10 TD/INT split they'll be a bowl team and maybe even hit 8 wins

as much as I love their offensive line i hate their defensive line but if everything comes together (which it never does for Pitt) don't be shocked if they're maybe even 8-1 heading into the UNC game. But if things don't get going early and they lose at BC I wouldn't be surprised if they were 4-5 going to NC and finished up 5-7 ....

a lot of question marks for them except for running game, TE ability, and Tyler Boyd

defense is VERY thin, quite small, and lost depth at CB this week when Trenton Coles left the program

Bisnowaty-Clemming-Rowell-Johnson-Rotherham is their best Oline in a very long time
 

New member
Joined
Jan 9, 2009
Messages
18,212
Tokens
RT: I read where Voytik is getting the nod at QB. As I recall I think Steele had Pitt as a team who could theoretically go undeafeted in a best case scenario. I think one of his 9 systems had them going undefeated. I might ride them early on.
 

New member
Joined
Jan 9, 2009
Messages
18,212
Tokens
(from philsteele.com)

Which Teams Could Go 11-1 or 12-0 in 2014
According to My 9 Sets of Power Ratings ?


Team
# of Sets
Call for 12-0
# of Sets
Call for 11-1
Team Losing To
Florida St
9
Marshall
9
Oklahoma
6
3
TCU
UCLA
5
3
Texas
Alabama
4
5
LSU
Ohio St
3
6
Michigan St
Oregon
1
7
UCLA
Georgia
1
4
South Carolina
North Carolina
1
Boise St
7
Ole Miss
Baylor
4
Oklahoma
Auburn
2
Alabama
Iowa
2
Wisconsin
Michigan St
2
Oregon
South Carolina
2
Auburn
USC
2
UCLA
Wisconsin
2
LSU
Bowling Green
1
Wisconsin
BYU
1
Boise St
Cincinnati
1
Ohio St
Northwestern
1
Notre Dame
Pittsburgh
1
North Carolina
 

New member
Joined
Jan 29, 2009
Messages
3,172
Tokens
russ..took a peek at the college football poll predictions for week 1 and checked the results from last years week 1 ( did well..5-2 i believe) they have both tulane and utah state winning outright for what its worth. Also, there is a 10 point discrepancy in favor of north texas against UT who has a huge game against BYU in week 2.

Ive really enjoyed reading your thread. Great stuff.
 

New member
Joined
Jan 9, 2009
Messages
18,212
Tokens
russ..took a peek at the college football poll predictions for week 1 and checked the results from last years week 1 ( did well..5-2 i believe) they have both tulane and utah state winning outright for what its worth. Also, there is a 10 point discrepancy in favor of north texas against UT who has a huge game against BYU in week 2.

Ive really enjoyed reading your thread. Great stuff.


Thanks for the feed back. Texas will get a good effort from N. Texas no doubt and they may have their minds on week two and BYU. I like Tulane myself and I am not sure how Tulsa is going to make a drastic turn around this year. I also like Utah St and would not be surprised if the beat Tenn. Home field advantage could be the difference though.
 

New member
Joined
Apr 28, 2006
Messages
2,398
Tokens
Russ, what parlays are you looking at for this week? I've been playing around with a few games to see what kind of odds I can get. Its pretty chalky but FSU, South Carolina, and Georgia ML parlay looks like it has a good shot to me. $100 pays $81 on 5dimes. You get two SEC homes teams and the best team in the country.
 

New member
Joined
Jan 9, 2009
Messages
18,212
Tokens
See post #267 - I will have money line dog parlay sometime this week.
 

New member
Joined
Jan 9, 2009
Messages
18,212
Tokens
Russ, what parlays are you looking at for this week? I've been playing around with a few games to see what kind of odds I can get. Its pretty chalky but FSU, South Carolina, and Georgia ML parlay looks like it has a good shot to me. $100 pays $81 on 5dimes. You get two SEC homes teams and the best team in the country.

My perspective on betting parlays goes back to my horse racing experiences, to bet a little to win a lot. I bet a lot of 5 teamers, have hit several 8 teamers and even hit a 10 teamer once. Had you bet $100 on a straight 3 teamer the payoff would be 6 to 1. Had you bet a 3X2X3 teamer which is (3) 2 teamers and (1) 3 teamer you would not lose money if you hit two out of three betting $20 each you would not lose money. So I look at parlays like I do exactas and trifectas etc. I have hit a few 5 team dog ML parlays also and those pay big time. They are not for everyone and I understand that. I will post one of those later this week and you can see how much those pay.
 

I'm from the government and I'm here to help
Joined
Sep 21, 2004
Messages
33,565
Tokens
RT: I read where Voytik is getting the nod at QB. As I recall I think Steele had Pitt as a team who could theoretically go undeafeted in a best case scenario. I think one of his 9 systems had them going undefeated. I might ride them early on.

yeah...as i wrote this team fully rests on his right arm as QB is a really big weakness for them since Myers left, Kincaid ditched them for Akron, and Tra'von got kicked out of school. After backup Trey Anderson, who is truly horrible, it would be a true freshman that just got to campus (not early enrollment) so brutally thin at the QB position.

Equally rough is the secondary now that Trenton Coles (had barely gotten beat out for starting CB, so got pissed and left) is gone leaving them with just 10 scholarships in the secondary...4 of which are true freshman. Not good when I'm equally concerned about the defensive line. They moved Clemmings from DL to OL, lost best lineman in a generation (aaron donald) to graduation along with fellow starter Ty Ezell, and lost Ejuan Price for season with torn pectoral. Put it this way...they are so thin at DL that their starting RB, James Conner, will play defensive end on 3rd downs

They're just a very, very, very young team reliant on sophomores (true and RS) for the majority of offense and embarrassingly thin at defensive line, QB and secondary.
 

Forum statistics

Threads
1,120,944
Messages
13,589,060
Members
101,021
Latest member
bradduke112
The RX is the sports betting industry's leading information portal for bonuses, picks, and sportsbook reviews. Find the best deals offered by a sportsbook in your state and browse our free picks section.FacebookTwitterInstagramContact Usforum@therx.com