Love the feed back and we are in the countdown now. I hope to get others to jump in once the AP poll comes out. I would love to dissect all those teams and try to pick out who might replace them. The first group is a bet against group and the replacements are a bet on group. Well worth some time and effort. Hope you jump in some more Tiger.
RT just posted the 2014 AP top 25 in a new thread. The process involved in the thread is to eliminate teams who will not make it to the final AP top 25 (bet against teams) and trying to find the teams who will replace them in the final AP top 25 (bet on teams). I listed some teams on his thread. I have already made breakdowns on several teams in this thread. They are Kansas St, Iowa, Marshall, TCU, BYU, Mizzou, Wash St, LSU, Ohio St, NW, Oregon St, and N Dame.
I should mention also the teams that I have not got write up on and probably will not have write ups on because I think they will maintain their listings on the AP top 25 from start to finish. They are Florida St, Alabama, Oregon, Oklahoma, Auburn, UCLA, Michigan St, S. Carolina, Baylor, Georgia, LSU, USC.
Teams I do not have write ups on yet that I will try to get one on that could fall from the preseason top 25 are Stanford, Wisconsin, Ole Miss, Arizona St, Texas A&M, Nebraska, N. Carolina, and Washington.
Teams I will try to get write ups on that could work their way into the top 25 by seasons end and are not ranked in the preseason are:
UCF, Florida, Virginia Tech. Teams that I have already written up that fit this category are Iowa, Marshall, Miss State, BYU, NW, and Oregon St.
Note that the AP does not have Texas in their preseason TOP 25.
I should mention also the teams that I have not got write up on and probably will not have write ups on because I think they will maintain their listings on the AP top 25 from start to finish. They are Florida St, Alabama, Oregon, Oklahoma, Auburn, UCLA, Michigan St, S. Carolina, Baylor, Georgia, LSU, USC.
Teams I do not have write ups on yet that I will try to get one on that could fall from the preseason top 25 are Stanford, Wisconsin, Ole Miss, Arizona St, Texas A&M, Nebraska, N. Carolina, and Washington.
Teams I will try to get write ups on that could work their way into the top 25 by seasons end and are not ranked in the preseason are:
UCF, Florida, Virginia Tech. Teams that I have already written up that fit this category are Iowa, Marshall, Miss State, BYU, NW, and Oregon St.
Note that the AP does not have Texas in their preseason TOP 25.
from philsteele.com:
[h=2]10 for 10 (100%) Six Months In Advance!!![/h]College Football fans wait several months for the AP/Coaches preseason polls to come out in early August and buy several of the preseason magazines including mine. Naturally I have always found these polls to be interesting and for the last several years I have projected the preseason AP Top 10 prior to the season and have hit on at least 9 of the 10 teams each year! In the past couple of years I have expanded my projection to 25 teams and yesterday with the AP Poll being released I thought it would be a good time to analyze how I did six months ago with my prediction.
First, way back on February 3, I put out my projected preseason AP Top 10, I mentioned it numerous times that this was NOT MY preseason Top 10 for next year, but it is where I project the AP Top 10 to come out at the start of the season. I then did an expanded projection of the AP Top 25 on April 8.
First, for the 6th consecutive season, I had at least 9 of the Top 10 AP teams projected and actually went 10 for 10 for the second time in three years giving me a 6-year total of 56 of 60 (93%). As far as poll position goes, I projected 5 of the Top 10 teams at their exact spot and of the Top 13 teams in the poll, only Auburn was off more than one spot (I projected #4 and they were #6).
In 2012 and 2013, I hit a perfect 25 for 25 with my AP Top 25 projection and this year was extremely disappointed to only hit 22 of 25 (88%). The three teams that beat my projection were Arizona St, Kansas St and Nebraska as I had Texas, UCF and Louisville all in their place.
Other than those teams mentioned above, some noteworthy moves since my projection are Missouri, who I projected to be #18 in April was #24 in the AP Poll and my preseason college football magazine might have had something to do with that as I had the Tigers #41.
You can now see that there is really no need to wait those agonizing five months prior to the season to see if your team will be ranked in the preseason Top 10/25…just make sure you are checking out my blog in early Spring for my projected AP Top 25!
[h=2]Top 10 Results (10 for 10!!!)[/h]
[h=2]Top 25 Results[/h]
| Daily Blog • August 18, 2014 |
|---|
First, way back on February 3, I put out my projected preseason AP Top 10, I mentioned it numerous times that this was NOT MY preseason Top 10 for next year, but it is where I project the AP Top 10 to come out at the start of the season. I then did an expanded projection of the AP Top 25 on April 8.
First, for the 6th consecutive season, I had at least 9 of the Top 10 AP teams projected and actually went 10 for 10 for the second time in three years giving me a 6-year total of 56 of 60 (93%). As far as poll position goes, I projected 5 of the Top 10 teams at their exact spot and of the Top 13 teams in the poll, only Auburn was off more than one spot (I projected #4 and they were #6).
In 2012 and 2013, I hit a perfect 25 for 25 with my AP Top 25 projection and this year was extremely disappointed to only hit 22 of 25 (88%). The three teams that beat my projection were Arizona St, Kansas St and Nebraska as I had Texas, UCF and Louisville all in their place.
Other than those teams mentioned above, some noteworthy moves since my projection are Missouri, who I projected to be #18 in April was #24 in the AP Poll and my preseason college football magazine might have had something to do with that as I had the Tigers #41.
You can now see that there is really no need to wait those agonizing five months prior to the season to see if your team will be ranked in the preseason Top 10/25…just make sure you are checking out my blog in early Spring for my projected AP Top 25!
[h=2]Top 10 Results (10 for 10!!!)[/h]
| TEAM | My Projection February 3 | Actual AP Poll August 17 | Diff |
| Florida State | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Alabama | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| Oregon | 3 | 3 | 0 |
| Oklahoma | 5 | 4 | 1 |
| Ohio State | 6 | 5 | 1 |
| Auburn | 4 | 6 | -2 |
| UCLA | 7 | 7 | 0 |
| Michigan State | 8 | 8 | 0 |
| South Carolina | 10 | 9 | 1 |
| Baylor | 9 | 10 | -1 |
| TEAM | My Projection April 8 | Actual AP Poll August 17 | Diff |
| Florida State | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Alabama | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| Oregon | 3 | 3 | 0 |
| Oklahoma | 5 | 4 | 1 |
| Ohio State | 6 | 5 | 1 |
| Auburn | 4 | 6 | -2 |
| UCLA | 7 | 7 | 0 |
| Michigan State | 8 | 8 | 0 |
| South Carolina | 10 | 9 | 1 |
| Baylor | 9 | 10 | -1 |
| Stanford | 12 | 11 | 1 |
| Georgia | 11 | 12 | -1 |
| LSU | 13 | 13 | 0 |
| Wisconsin | 17 | 14 | 3 |
| USC | 14 | 15 | -1 |
| Clemson | 16 | 16 | 0 |
| Notre Dame | 15 | 17 | -2 |
| Ole Miss | 20 | 18 | 2 |
| Arizona State | 19 | -19 | |
| Kansas State | 20 | -20 | |
| Texas A&M | 19 | 21 | -2 |
| Nebraska | 22 | -22 | |
| North Carolina | 23 | 23 | 0 |
| Missouri | 18 | 24 | -6 |
| Washington | 22 | 25 | -3 |
team: Arizona state
2013 – offensive scoring: #10 (34.8 ppg)
defensive scoring: #63 (26.6 ppg)
avg point differential: 13.1 ppg
2013 ats record: 7-7
2013 average ranking: 38.5
phil steel experience ranking: #108
phil steel toughest schedule ranking: #29
head coach: Todd graham (3)
offensive coordinator: Mike Norvell (3)
defensive coordinator: Paul Randolph (3) / Chris Ball (3)
comments: (8) returning starters, qb taylor kelly returns along with top 2 recivers, play 6 potential top 25 teams (ucla, at usc, stanford, notre dame), do not play oregon
lose 10 of last year’s top 12 tacklers
finished 2013 at 10-4 but lost their last 2 games – pac 12 champ to stanford 14-38 and bowl game to texas tech 23-37
my prognosis: I like the hc and the qb but that defense is going to have it’s hands full. Even with a wide open and capable offense i don’t think their defense is up to the task of facing the offenses that they will face. I see no way this team can be in the top 25 at seasons end. Best case scenario would be 3 regular season losses. Worst case scenario would be 6 losses.
2013 – offensive scoring: #10 (34.8 ppg)
defensive scoring: #63 (26.6 ppg)
avg point differential: 13.1 ppg
2013 ats record: 7-7
2013 average ranking: 38.5
phil steel experience ranking: #108
phil steel toughest schedule ranking: #29
head coach: Todd graham (3)
offensive coordinator: Mike Norvell (3)
defensive coordinator: Paul Randolph (3) / Chris Ball (3)
comments: (8) returning starters, qb taylor kelly returns along with top 2 recivers, play 6 potential top 25 teams (ucla, at usc, stanford, notre dame), do not play oregon
lose 10 of last year’s top 12 tacklers
finished 2013 at 10-4 but lost their last 2 games – pac 12 champ to stanford 14-38 and bowl game to texas tech 23-37
my prognosis: I like the hc and the qb but that defense is going to have it’s hands full. Even with a wide open and capable offense i don’t think their defense is up to the task of facing the offenses that they will face. I see no way this team can be in the top 25 at seasons end. Best case scenario would be 3 regular season losses. Worst case scenario would be 6 losses.
team: Florida
2013 – offensive scoring: #112 (18.8 ppg)
defensive scoring: #15 (21.2 ppg)
avg point differential: -2.3 ppg
2013 ats record: 4-8
2013 average ranking: 63.5
phil steel experience ranking: #60
phil steel toughest schedule ranking: #32
head coach: Will Muschamp (4)
offensive coordinator: Kurt Roper (1) – comes in from duke
defensive coordinator: D.j. Durkin (2)
comments: A new oc was a must to turn things around. Muschamp’s job could be on the line. They return their 4 top rb’s and 9 of their top tacklers from 2013, 14 returning starts in total.
my prognosis: If a qb emerges and the OL improves i think kurt roper might be just what the doctor ordered. They play potential 6 top 25 teams (at alabama, lsu, missouri, georgia, south carolina, at florida st. They lost to georgia southern ly and no bowl game either. This has to be a hungry group and they should be 3-0 going into their road game at alabama. I know they will improve on last year’s 4-8 record but not sure they can squeeze into the top 25. Best case scenario 3 losses. Worst case scenario 6 losses. By the same token if they were to upset alabama on the road or at least hand in there this could be a team to watch. At the very least they should improve on their ats record.
2013 – offensive scoring: #112 (18.8 ppg)
defensive scoring: #15 (21.2 ppg)
avg point differential: -2.3 ppg
2013 ats record: 4-8
2013 average ranking: 63.5
phil steel experience ranking: #60
phil steel toughest schedule ranking: #32
head coach: Will Muschamp (4)
offensive coordinator: Kurt Roper (1) – comes in from duke
defensive coordinator: D.j. Durkin (2)
comments: A new oc was a must to turn things around. Muschamp’s job could be on the line. They return their 4 top rb’s and 9 of their top tacklers from 2013, 14 returning starts in total.
my prognosis: If a qb emerges and the OL improves i think kurt roper might be just what the doctor ordered. They play potential 6 top 25 teams (at alabama, lsu, missouri, georgia, south carolina, at florida st. They lost to georgia southern ly and no bowl game either. This has to be a hungry group and they should be 3-0 going into their road game at alabama. I know they will improve on last year’s 4-8 record but not sure they can squeeze into the top 25. Best case scenario 3 losses. Worst case scenario 6 losses. By the same token if they were to upset alabama on the road or at least hand in there this could be a team to watch. At the very least they should improve on their ats record.
team: Ole Miss
2013 – offensive scoring: #57 (30 ppg)
defensive scoring: #37 (23.7 ppg)
avg point differential: 18.5 ppg
2013 ats record: 7-6
2013 average ranking: #47
phil steel experience ranking: #26
phil steel toughest schedule ranking: #20
head coach: Hugh Freeze (3)
offensive coordinator: Matt Luke (3) / Dan werner (3)
defensive coordinator: Dave Womack (3) / Jason Jones (2)
comments: Coming off of an 8-5 season and wins over texas and lsu. A very capable offense lead by qb bo wallace and defense that returns 15 of their top 17 tacklers from 2013. They play 6 potential top 25 teams (boise st, alabama, at texas a&m, at lsu, auburn and miss state). They avoid playing alabama, georgia , south carolina and florida.
my prognosis: Even though they avoid playing the teams shown above the have the #20 ranked toughest schedule. I think that cannot be overlooked. They lost 5 conference games ly. Their opener against boise st is a must win if they are going to turn the corner since hc freeze took over. Best case scenario would be 3 losses. Worst case scenario would be 6 losses. An injury to bo wallace would be critical. They could be the surprise team of the sec and with high expectations could be a big disappointment also. I don’t think their ats record will improve.
2013 – offensive scoring: #57 (30 ppg)
defensive scoring: #37 (23.7 ppg)
avg point differential: 18.5 ppg
2013 ats record: 7-6
2013 average ranking: #47
phil steel experience ranking: #26
phil steel toughest schedule ranking: #20
head coach: Hugh Freeze (3)
offensive coordinator: Matt Luke (3) / Dan werner (3)
defensive coordinator: Dave Womack (3) / Jason Jones (2)
comments: Coming off of an 8-5 season and wins over texas and lsu. A very capable offense lead by qb bo wallace and defense that returns 15 of their top 17 tacklers from 2013. They play 6 potential top 25 teams (boise st, alabama, at texas a&m, at lsu, auburn and miss state). They avoid playing alabama, georgia , south carolina and florida.
my prognosis: Even though they avoid playing the teams shown above the have the #20 ranked toughest schedule. I think that cannot be overlooked. They lost 5 conference games ly. Their opener against boise st is a must win if they are going to turn the corner since hc freeze took over. Best case scenario would be 3 losses. Worst case scenario would be 6 losses. An injury to bo wallace would be critical. They could be the surprise team of the sec and with high expectations could be a big disappointment also. I don’t think their ats record will improve.
team: Mississippi St
2013 – offensive scoring: #70 (27.7 ppg)
defensive scoring: #33 (23 ppg)
avg point differential: +4.7 ppg
2013 ats record: 8-5
2013 average ranking: 51.5
phil steel experience ranking: #5
phil steel toughest schedule ranking:#56
head coach: Dan Mullen (6)
offensive coordinator: Billy Gonzales (1) / John Hevesy (1) asst’s ly (replace koening who went to texas)
defensive coordinator: Geoff Collins (4)
comments: That #5 experience ranking is impressive and with 16 returning starters they should improve on last year’s 7-6 su record. They finished up last season with 3 winds including an ot win over ole miss. They should improve their offensive scoring and rreturn 17 of their top 20 tacklers from 2013. In the past 4 years the bulldogs under mullen have gone 9-4, 7-6, 8-5, and 7-6.
my prognosis: The bulldogs could very well be this year’s sec sleeper. They do play at lsu, at alabama and at mississippi. There is so much attention on ole miss as a breakout team but this could be the best team in that state and with a break here and there could be a team that could find their way to the final top 25. It will not be easy but if they were to beat lsu on week 4 it could happen. I think their ats record will be as good or better than last years.
2013 – offensive scoring: #70 (27.7 ppg)
defensive scoring: #33 (23 ppg)
avg point differential: +4.7 ppg
2013 ats record: 8-5
2013 average ranking: 51.5
phil steel experience ranking: #5
phil steel toughest schedule ranking:#56
head coach: Dan Mullen (6)
offensive coordinator: Billy Gonzales (1) / John Hevesy (1) asst’s ly (replace koening who went to texas)
defensive coordinator: Geoff Collins (4)
comments: That #5 experience ranking is impressive and with 16 returning starters they should improve on last year’s 7-6 su record. They finished up last season with 3 winds including an ot win over ole miss. They should improve their offensive scoring and rreturn 17 of their top 20 tacklers from 2013. In the past 4 years the bulldogs under mullen have gone 9-4, 7-6, 8-5, and 7-6.
my prognosis: The bulldogs could very well be this year’s sec sleeper. They do play at lsu, at alabama and at mississippi. There is so much attention on ole miss as a breakout team but this could be the best team in that state and with a break here and there could be a team that could find their way to the final top 25. It will not be easy but if they were to beat lsu on week 4 it could happen. I think their ats record will be as good or better than last years.
TEAM: Missouri
2013 – OFFENSIVE SCORING: #13 (39.1 ppg)
DEFENSIVE SCORING: #34 (23.1 ppg)
AVG POINT DIFFERENTIAL: 16 ppg
2013 ATS RECORD: 11-2
2013 AVERAGE RANKING: 23.5
PHIL STEEL EXPERIENCE RANKING: #122
PHIL STEEL TOUGHEST SCHEDULE RANKING: #31
HEAD COACH: Gary Pinkel (14 yrs)
OFFENSIVE COORDINATOR: Josh Henson (2[SUP]nd[/SUP] yr)
DEFENSIVE COORDINATOR: Dave Steckel (6[SUP]th[/SUP] yr)
COMMENTS: Last year was a dream season for the Tigers. They only return 8 starters in 2014. They ranked #122 (out of 128 teams ) on Steele’s experience chart. That ain’t good. They lose RB Henry Josey (1207 yds – 16 TD’s) and QB James Franklin. I think Maty Mauk can handle the QB slot but they also lose their top 3 receivers. They also lose 6 of their top 10 tacklers from 2014.
MY PROGNOSIS: I don’t see a repeat of last year but this team has already proven that it can exceed expectations. They play UCF on week 3 and travel to S Carolina on week 5 so those two games might give us a better take on where this year’s team is headed. They do not play Alabama or Auburn so that is a plus. Best case scenario is that this team could only lose 3 games in the regular season. Worst case scenario is that they could lose no more than 5 games which would keep them out of the final top 25. They have a much weaker schedule this year. I see no way that can come close to last year ATS success (11-2).
2013 – OFFENSIVE SCORING: #13 (39.1 ppg)
DEFENSIVE SCORING: #34 (23.1 ppg)
AVG POINT DIFFERENTIAL: 16 ppg
2013 ATS RECORD: 11-2
2013 AVERAGE RANKING: 23.5
PHIL STEEL EXPERIENCE RANKING: #122
PHIL STEEL TOUGHEST SCHEDULE RANKING: #31
HEAD COACH: Gary Pinkel (14 yrs)
OFFENSIVE COORDINATOR: Josh Henson (2[SUP]nd[/SUP] yr)
DEFENSIVE COORDINATOR: Dave Steckel (6[SUP]th[/SUP] yr)
COMMENTS: Last year was a dream season for the Tigers. They only return 8 starters in 2014. They ranked #122 (out of 128 teams ) on Steele’s experience chart. That ain’t good. They lose RB Henry Josey (1207 yds – 16 TD’s) and QB James Franklin. I think Maty Mauk can handle the QB slot but they also lose their top 3 receivers. They also lose 6 of their top 10 tacklers from 2014.
MY PROGNOSIS: I don’t see a repeat of last year but this team has already proven that it can exceed expectations. They play UCF on week 3 and travel to S Carolina on week 5 so those two games might give us a better take on where this year’s team is headed. They do not play Alabama or Auburn so that is a plus. Best case scenario is that this team could only lose 3 games in the regular season. Worst case scenario is that they could lose no more than 5 games which would keep them out of the final top 25. They have a much weaker schedule this year. I see no way that can come close to last year ATS success (11-2).
TEAM: Nebraska
2013 – OFFENSIVE SCORING: #48 (31.9 ppg)
DEFENSIVE SCORING: #50 (24.8 ppg)
AVG POINT DIFFERENTIAL: 7.1 ppg
2013 ATS RECORD: 7-6
2013 AVERAGE RANKING: #49
PHIL STEEL EXPERIENCE RANKING: #97
PHIL STEEL TOUGHEST SCHEDULE RANKING: #51
HEAD COACH: Bo Pelini (7[SUP]th[/SUP] year)
OFFENSIVE COORDINATOR: Tim Beck (4[SUP]th[/SUP] year as OC – 6 yrs total)
DEFENSIVE COORDINATOR: John Papuchis (6 yrs)
COMMENTS: Last yr the Huskers finished 9-4 SU. They return 11 starters. The OL is a question mark but most of their skill offensive players do return. They do return their top 5 tacklers from 2013 also. They play at Mich St, at NW, at Wisconsin, at Iowa but do avoid Ohio St.
MY PROGNOSIS: I think Pelini is beginning to feel the pressure. They have not won a conference championship since 1999 (Steele). Those alums are used to much better. They should begin the season 5-0 SU and then they will be put to the test at Michigan St. That game may define the rest of their season. Best case scenario is they could lose 3 games. Worst case scenario is they could lose 5 games. Will 8-5 put Pelini in position to keep his job. This will be a very interesting team to watch in 2014 but I am not as high on them this year as I was last year.
2013 – OFFENSIVE SCORING: #48 (31.9 ppg)
DEFENSIVE SCORING: #50 (24.8 ppg)
AVG POINT DIFFERENTIAL: 7.1 ppg
2013 ATS RECORD: 7-6
2013 AVERAGE RANKING: #49
PHIL STEEL EXPERIENCE RANKING: #97
PHIL STEEL TOUGHEST SCHEDULE RANKING: #51
HEAD COACH: Bo Pelini (7[SUP]th[/SUP] year)
OFFENSIVE COORDINATOR: Tim Beck (4[SUP]th[/SUP] year as OC – 6 yrs total)
DEFENSIVE COORDINATOR: John Papuchis (6 yrs)
COMMENTS: Last yr the Huskers finished 9-4 SU. They return 11 starters. The OL is a question mark but most of their skill offensive players do return. They do return their top 5 tacklers from 2013 also. They play at Mich St, at NW, at Wisconsin, at Iowa but do avoid Ohio St.
MY PROGNOSIS: I think Pelini is beginning to feel the pressure. They have not won a conference championship since 1999 (Steele). Those alums are used to much better. They should begin the season 5-0 SU and then they will be put to the test at Michigan St. That game may define the rest of their season. Best case scenario is they could lose 3 games. Worst case scenario is they could lose 5 games. Will 8-5 put Pelini in position to keep his job. This will be a very interesting team to watch in 2014 but I am not as high on them this year as I was last year.
TEAM: North Carolina
2013 – OFFENSIVE SCORING: #43 (32.7 ppg)
DEFENSIVE SCORING: #43 (24.5 ppg)
AVG POINT DIFFERENTIAL: 8.2 ppg
2013 ATS RECORD: 8-5
2013 AVERAGE RANKING: #43
PHIL STEEL EXPERIENCE RANKING: #79
PHIL STEEL TOUGHEST SCHEDULE RANKING: #27
HEAD COACH: Larry Fedora (3[SUP]rd[/SUP] yr)
OFFENSIVE COORDINATOR: Gunter Brewer (1[SUP]st[/SUP] year) / Chris Kaplivoic (1[SUP]st[/SUP] year)
DEFENSIVE COORDINATOR: Vic Koenning (3[SUP]rd[/SUP] year)
COMMENTS: Coming off of a 7-6 season the Tar Heel return 15 starters yet only rank #79 on Steele’s experience rankings. Their toughest schedule ranking is #27 as they play at Clemson, Virginia Tech, at N. Dame, at Miami Fl, Pitt (who could surprise people this year), and at Duke.
MY PROGNOSIS: Projecting this team into the final top 25 may take a leap of faith. Yes every year a couple of teams rise to the top to surprise us but that may be asking too much of the Tar Heels. It is possible though. In terms of reloading this team could use last season as a stepping stone and get it done. We shall see. Best case scenario would be 2 losses. Worst case scenario would be 5 losses and that keeps them out of the final top 25.
2013 – OFFENSIVE SCORING: #43 (32.7 ppg)
DEFENSIVE SCORING: #43 (24.5 ppg)
AVG POINT DIFFERENTIAL: 8.2 ppg
2013 ATS RECORD: 8-5
2013 AVERAGE RANKING: #43
PHIL STEEL EXPERIENCE RANKING: #79
PHIL STEEL TOUGHEST SCHEDULE RANKING: #27
HEAD COACH: Larry Fedora (3[SUP]rd[/SUP] yr)
OFFENSIVE COORDINATOR: Gunter Brewer (1[SUP]st[/SUP] year) / Chris Kaplivoic (1[SUP]st[/SUP] year)
DEFENSIVE COORDINATOR: Vic Koenning (3[SUP]rd[/SUP] year)
COMMENTS: Coming off of a 7-6 season the Tar Heel return 15 starters yet only rank #79 on Steele’s experience rankings. Their toughest schedule ranking is #27 as they play at Clemson, Virginia Tech, at N. Dame, at Miami Fl, Pitt (who could surprise people this year), and at Duke.
MY PROGNOSIS: Projecting this team into the final top 25 may take a leap of faith. Yes every year a couple of teams rise to the top to surprise us but that may be asking too much of the Tar Heels. It is possible though. In terms of reloading this team could use last season as a stepping stone and get it done. We shall see. Best case scenario would be 2 losses. Worst case scenario would be 5 losses and that keeps them out of the final top 25.
TEAM: Stanford
2013 – OFFENSIVE SCORING: #45 (32.3 ppg)
DEFENSIVE SCORING: #10 (19 ppg)
AVG POINT DIFFERENTIAL: +13.3 ppg
2013 ATS RECORD: 7-7
2013 AVERAGE RANKING: 27.5
PHIL STEEL EXPERIENCE RANKING: #93
PHIL STEEL TOUGHEST SCHEDULE RANKING: #16
HEAD COACH: David Shaw (4[SUP]th[/SUP] yr)
OFFENSIVE COORDINATOR: Mike Bloomgren (2[SUP]nd[/SUP] yr)
DEFENSIVE COORDINATOR: Lance Anderson (1[SUP]st[/SUP] yr) been there since 2007
COMMENTS: Shaw has done a hell of a job and goes into 2014 with a 34-7 record. They did lose to Mich St in the Rose Bowl against a highly motivated Spartan team. RB Gaffney departs and I don’t see anyone filling those shoes although a player named Barry Sanders will give it a shot. They lose 5 of their top 10 tacklers from 2013. They return 12 starters and that includes QB Kevin Hogan who threw for 2,630 yds and 20 TD’s last season.
MY PROGNOSIS: Shaw has been able make the annual transitions in personnel pretty well up to now but as shown above he is facing the #16 toughest schedule with an experience ranking of #93. Losing Gaffney hurts. This is the least experienced OL the Cardinal have had since Shaw has been there. They face USC on week 2 and that is a big game for both teams. If Stanford wins that one they have a shot once again but their schedule also includes at Washington, at N. Dame (back to back), at Arizona St, at Oregon, and their finale at UCLA. Best case scenario would be repeat of last year’s 11-3 season. Worst case scenario would be an 8-5 season which would keep them out of the top 25 for the first time in a while. Hogan is a competitor but without an effective running game I think it is asking too much to carry the load even though his top 5 receivers return. They also lose their top tackler and defensive playmaker in Shayne Skov. Losing Gaffney and Skov could be the difference when all is said and done.
2013 – OFFENSIVE SCORING: #45 (32.3 ppg)
DEFENSIVE SCORING: #10 (19 ppg)
AVG POINT DIFFERENTIAL: +13.3 ppg
2013 ATS RECORD: 7-7
2013 AVERAGE RANKING: 27.5
PHIL STEEL EXPERIENCE RANKING: #93
PHIL STEEL TOUGHEST SCHEDULE RANKING: #16
HEAD COACH: David Shaw (4[SUP]th[/SUP] yr)
OFFENSIVE COORDINATOR: Mike Bloomgren (2[SUP]nd[/SUP] yr)
DEFENSIVE COORDINATOR: Lance Anderson (1[SUP]st[/SUP] yr) been there since 2007
COMMENTS: Shaw has done a hell of a job and goes into 2014 with a 34-7 record. They did lose to Mich St in the Rose Bowl against a highly motivated Spartan team. RB Gaffney departs and I don’t see anyone filling those shoes although a player named Barry Sanders will give it a shot. They lose 5 of their top 10 tacklers from 2013. They return 12 starters and that includes QB Kevin Hogan who threw for 2,630 yds and 20 TD’s last season.
MY PROGNOSIS: Shaw has been able make the annual transitions in personnel pretty well up to now but as shown above he is facing the #16 toughest schedule with an experience ranking of #93. Losing Gaffney hurts. This is the least experienced OL the Cardinal have had since Shaw has been there. They face USC on week 2 and that is a big game for both teams. If Stanford wins that one they have a shot once again but their schedule also includes at Washington, at N. Dame (back to back), at Arizona St, at Oregon, and their finale at UCLA. Best case scenario would be repeat of last year’s 11-3 season. Worst case scenario would be an 8-5 season which would keep them out of the top 25 for the first time in a while. Hogan is a competitor but without an effective running game I think it is asking too much to carry the load even though his top 5 receivers return. They also lose their top tackler and defensive playmaker in Shayne Skov. Losing Gaffney and Skov could be the difference when all is said and done.
TEAM: Texas A & M
2013 – OFFENSIVE SCORING: #5 (44.2 ppg)
DEFENSIVE SCORING: #95 (32.2 ppg)
AVG POINT DIFFERENTIAL: +12 ppg
2013 ATS RECORD: 5-8
2013 AVERAGE RANKING: #50
PHIL STEEL EXPERIENCE RANKING: #90
PHIL STEELE TOUGHEST SCHEDULE RANKING: ##12
HEAD COACH: Kevin Sumner (3[SUP]rd[/SUP] yr)
OFFENSIVE COORDINATOR: Jim Spavital (2[SUP]nd[/SUP] yr)
DEFENSIVE COORDINATOR: Mark Snyder (3[SUP]rd[/SUP] yr)
COMMENTS: Last year with Johnny Manziel they went 9-4 SU. Now they have no Manziel and lose his favorite target Mike Evans. They do return 14 starters but 9 of them are from a defense that finished #95 in defensive scoring last year.
MY PROGNOSIS: I have full respect for HC Sumlin but this team is operating in the SEC now and the QB play has improved across the board there lately. I do not see their offense finishing #5 this year so their average ranking is going to get worse. Even with an average ranking of #50 that is not going to be good enough to make the final top 25 this year. They need to win the opener at S. Carolina. They should then be 5-0 going into a 3 week span at Miss St, Ole Miss, and at Ala and finish the season at Auburn, Mizzou, and LSU. So their best case scenario is 9-3 or 8-4. Their worst case scenario would be 6 losses and that would stymie the A&M program.
2013 – OFFENSIVE SCORING: #5 (44.2 ppg)
DEFENSIVE SCORING: #95 (32.2 ppg)
AVG POINT DIFFERENTIAL: +12 ppg
2013 ATS RECORD: 5-8
2013 AVERAGE RANKING: #50
PHIL STEEL EXPERIENCE RANKING: #90
PHIL STEELE TOUGHEST SCHEDULE RANKING: ##12
HEAD COACH: Kevin Sumner (3[SUP]rd[/SUP] yr)
OFFENSIVE COORDINATOR: Jim Spavital (2[SUP]nd[/SUP] yr)
DEFENSIVE COORDINATOR: Mark Snyder (3[SUP]rd[/SUP] yr)
COMMENTS: Last year with Johnny Manziel they went 9-4 SU. Now they have no Manziel and lose his favorite target Mike Evans. They do return 14 starters but 9 of them are from a defense that finished #95 in defensive scoring last year.
MY PROGNOSIS: I have full respect for HC Sumlin but this team is operating in the SEC now and the QB play has improved across the board there lately. I do not see their offense finishing #5 this year so their average ranking is going to get worse. Even with an average ranking of #50 that is not going to be good enough to make the final top 25 this year. They need to win the opener at S. Carolina. They should then be 5-0 going into a 3 week span at Miss St, Ole Miss, and at Ala and finish the season at Auburn, Mizzou, and LSU. So their best case scenario is 9-3 or 8-4. Their worst case scenario would be 6 losses and that would stymie the A&M program.
TEAM: U.C.F.
2013 – OFFENSIVE SCORING: #30 (34.6 ppg)
DEFENSIVE SCORING: #17 (21.3 ppg)
AVG POINT DIFFERENTIAL: 13.3 ppg
2013 ATS RECORD: 8-5
2013 AVERAGE RANKING: 23.5
PHIL STEELE EXPERIENCE RANKING: #91
PHIL STEELE TOUGHEST SCHEDULE RANKING: #86
HEAD COACH: George O’Leary (11[SUP]th[/SUP] yr)
OFFENSIVE COORDINATOR: Charlie Taaffe (6[SUP]th[/SUP] yr)
DEFENSIVE COORDINATOR: Tyson Summers (1[SUP]st[/SUP] yr) been there since 2007
COMMENTS: The Knights return 15 starters but lose QB Blake Bortles and their leading rusher, Storm Johnson. The offense will suffer. The defense was really a strength in 2013 and with 16 of their top 20 tacklers returning should remain so. Coming off of a 12-1 season capped off with a bowl win over Baylor this team is on a high.
MY PROGNOSIS: This year they open up against Penn St in Dublin, Ireland. Then they have a week off and play at Mizzou. They also play at Houston, BYU but they should waltz through their last 7 games. So best case scenario is a perfect season. Worst case scenario would be 8-4. Facing Steele’s #91 toughest schedule helps them I see them losing 3 regular season games and with a bowl win could make into the final top 25. They won 3 of the only 4 games in which they were not favored last year. The loss of Bortles and Johnson will tough to overcome.
2013 – OFFENSIVE SCORING: #30 (34.6 ppg)
DEFENSIVE SCORING: #17 (21.3 ppg)
AVG POINT DIFFERENTIAL: 13.3 ppg
2013 ATS RECORD: 8-5
2013 AVERAGE RANKING: 23.5
PHIL STEELE EXPERIENCE RANKING: #91
PHIL STEELE TOUGHEST SCHEDULE RANKING: #86
HEAD COACH: George O’Leary (11[SUP]th[/SUP] yr)
OFFENSIVE COORDINATOR: Charlie Taaffe (6[SUP]th[/SUP] yr)
DEFENSIVE COORDINATOR: Tyson Summers (1[SUP]st[/SUP] yr) been there since 2007
COMMENTS: The Knights return 15 starters but lose QB Blake Bortles and their leading rusher, Storm Johnson. The offense will suffer. The defense was really a strength in 2013 and with 16 of their top 20 tacklers returning should remain so. Coming off of a 12-1 season capped off with a bowl win over Baylor this team is on a high.
MY PROGNOSIS: This year they open up against Penn St in Dublin, Ireland. Then they have a week off and play at Mizzou. They also play at Houston, BYU but they should waltz through their last 7 games. So best case scenario is a perfect season. Worst case scenario would be 8-4. Facing Steele’s #91 toughest schedule helps them I see them losing 3 regular season games and with a bowl win could make into the final top 25. They won 3 of the only 4 games in which they were not favored last year. The loss of Bortles and Johnson will tough to overcome.
