I thought I would share a site that I came across a few years ago called collegefootballpoll.com. They have the results of every game on a week by week basis going back to 2003 in their archives. They do make computer picks and every week show the opening line as compared to their computerized line. I use them mostly for research. For instance you could go back to week one of prior years and see how teams did that fit a specific line group, say teams favored by 6 or less and see how the fared. You might check it out. I am not saying their picks are worth following but the availibility of their stats is what I like. BOL
We both know that Gundy is seldom satisfied with his QB's. He likes to tinker too much. So he probably won't have it figured out until at least halfway through the season. The more I hear about OSU the more I'm tending to agree with you about the FSU game, even though it is a lot of points to give. I also don't particularly like what I'm hearing on the defensive side. After OSU scrimmaged for 2 hours Saturday, DC Spencer didn't beat around the bush when discussing his linebacker corp. "They're all sorting it out" he said. "They don't have it. They aren't even close yet. But the bad part of that deal is they've got to get close because they're going to have to play this year." That doesn't give me a big vote of confidence. OSU's 14 linebackers include 5 true freshmen and 3 transfers. Besides Ryan Simmons who started every game last year, the rest of this group has only a combined 40 tackles. With this season opener against FSU, there won't be any time for these freshmen to ease into their roles. Gundy said the second team linebackers are ALL freshmen, and said that the first and second teams will get a 60-40 split in playing time, for the most part. Spencer also went on to say that "the game is just too fast for these players right now." The question is how much will it slow down for them by the 30th. Last time I counted that was only 18 days away. Good luck! I think they are going to have a rough time against that FSU offense.
GS: Linebackers are key. Defense is all about confidence both in yourself and in your teammates. It is all about trust also. It is just as possible that even though the Pokes have plenty of time to focus on the Fl St offense that their defense is simply not up to the task. They are facing a Heisman winner who has progressed to the point where he can change plays at the line of scrimmage etc. I think Ok St will improve as the season progresses, and like you say settling on a QB is a key factor in that regard. I think there are several teams who could give FL St all they wanted if they faced them in the season opener but Ok St is not one of them.
Last season on Week 1 there were according to my count 13 games where one team was favored by 21 or more points. The favorites went 5-7-1 (that is based on opening lines).
This season there are 15 games in which one team is favored by 21 or more points. They are:
Arizona -24 over UNLV, UCLA -22.5 over Virginia, Michigan -34.5 over Appalachian St, N. C. State -23 over Geo Southern, Nebraska -23.5 over FAU, Marshall -23.5 over Miami Ohio, N. Dame -22.5 over Rice, Alabama -26.5 over W. Virginia, Oklahoma -38 over La Tech, Florida -35.5 over Idaho, USC -21 over Fresno St, Miss St -31 over So Miss, Texas -24.5 over N. Texas, Baylor -33 over SMU, and Auburn opened at -21.5 over Arkansas but is now off the line.
Not that last year is a rule to follow but it might be fun to settle in which 5 teams from the above list are most likely to pull the big points. I will eliminate Michigan and NC St as there ma be NL for some.
1. Marshall – in 2013 Marshall finished #7 in scoring offense (42.1 ppg) and #32 in scoring defense (9.8 ppg). Miami O finished #122 in scoring offense (22.9 ppg) and #106 in scoring defense (35.7 ppg). Marshall returns 14 starters and ranks #20 on Steele’s experience rankings. Miami O returns 15 starters and ranks #32 on Steele’s experience rankings.
2. USC - finished the season with a bowl win over Fresno State (which was ranked #21 at the time) by a score of 45-20. Fresno St loses QB Derek Carr who passed for 5082 yds in 2013. USC finished 2013 #60 in scoring offense (29.7 ppg) and # 16 in scoring defense (21.2 ppg). Fr State finished # 6 in scoring offense (43.4 ppg) and #86 in scoring defense (30.3 ppg). USC returns 14 starters and ranks #62 on Steele’s experience rankings. Fresno St returns 13 starters and ranks #98 on Steele’s experience rankings.
3. Mississippi State – in 2013 Miss St finished #70 in scoring offense (27.7 ppg) and #33 in scoring defense (23 ppg). So Miss finished #117 in scoring offense (17.1 ppg) and #117 in scoring defense (41.9 ppg). Miss St returns 16 starters and is #5 in Steele’s experience rankings. So Miss returns 16 starters and is #60 in Steele’s experience rankings.
4. Baylor – In 2013 Baylor finished #1 in scoring offense (52.4 ppg) and QB Bryce Petty returns. They finished #36 in scoring defense (23.5 ppg). SMU finished #76 in scoring offense (26.8 ppg) and QB Garrett Gilbert does not return. They finished #99 in scoring defense (33.3 ppg). Baylor returns 10 starters and finished #81 in Steele’s experience rankings. SMU returns 12 starters and finished #126 in Steele’s experience rankings.
5. Florida – in 2013 Florida finished #112 in scoring offense (18.8 ppg) and #5 in scoring defense (21.1 ppg). Idaho finished #115 in scoring offense (18.2 ppg) and #123 (last) in scoring defense (46.8 ppg). Difference makers – Florida new OC Kurt Roper and Florida returns their top 4 RB’s.
Well it is a little early but if you bet big favorites it could be wise to do it earlier than later. We shall see how the lines move. BOL
This season there are 15 games in which one team is favored by 21 or more points. They are:
Arizona -24 over UNLV, UCLA -22.5 over Virginia, Michigan -34.5 over Appalachian St, N. C. State -23 over Geo Southern, Nebraska -23.5 over FAU, Marshall -23.5 over Miami Ohio, N. Dame -22.5 over Rice, Alabama -26.5 over W. Virginia, Oklahoma -38 over La Tech, Florida -35.5 over Idaho, USC -21 over Fresno St, Miss St -31 over So Miss, Texas -24.5 over N. Texas, Baylor -33 over SMU, and Auburn opened at -21.5 over Arkansas but is now off the line.
Not that last year is a rule to follow but it might be fun to settle in which 5 teams from the above list are most likely to pull the big points. I will eliminate Michigan and NC St as there ma be NL for some.
1. Marshall – in 2013 Marshall finished #7 in scoring offense (42.1 ppg) and #32 in scoring defense (9.8 ppg). Miami O finished #122 in scoring offense (22.9 ppg) and #106 in scoring defense (35.7 ppg). Marshall returns 14 starters and ranks #20 on Steele’s experience rankings. Miami O returns 15 starters and ranks #32 on Steele’s experience rankings.
2. USC - finished the season with a bowl win over Fresno State (which was ranked #21 at the time) by a score of 45-20. Fresno St loses QB Derek Carr who passed for 5082 yds in 2013. USC finished 2013 #60 in scoring offense (29.7 ppg) and # 16 in scoring defense (21.2 ppg). Fr State finished # 6 in scoring offense (43.4 ppg) and #86 in scoring defense (30.3 ppg). USC returns 14 starters and ranks #62 on Steele’s experience rankings. Fresno St returns 13 starters and ranks #98 on Steele’s experience rankings.
3. Mississippi State – in 2013 Miss St finished #70 in scoring offense (27.7 ppg) and #33 in scoring defense (23 ppg). So Miss finished #117 in scoring offense (17.1 ppg) and #117 in scoring defense (41.9 ppg). Miss St returns 16 starters and is #5 in Steele’s experience rankings. So Miss returns 16 starters and is #60 in Steele’s experience rankings.
4. Baylor – In 2013 Baylor finished #1 in scoring offense (52.4 ppg) and QB Bryce Petty returns. They finished #36 in scoring defense (23.5 ppg). SMU finished #76 in scoring offense (26.8 ppg) and QB Garrett Gilbert does not return. They finished #99 in scoring defense (33.3 ppg). Baylor returns 10 starters and finished #81 in Steele’s experience rankings. SMU returns 12 starters and finished #126 in Steele’s experience rankings.
5. Florida – in 2013 Florida finished #112 in scoring offense (18.8 ppg) and #5 in scoring defense (21.1 ppg). Idaho finished #115 in scoring offense (18.2 ppg) and #123 (last) in scoring defense (46.8 ppg). Difference makers – Florida new OC Kurt Roper and Florida returns their top 4 RB’s.
Well it is a little early but if you bet big favorites it could be wise to do it earlier than later. We shall see how the lines move. BOL
Just a simple observation. I have been monitoring my favorite line ever since it came out. Strangely there has been line movement on all but two games. Ohio St came out -17 against Navy and no movement since. Likewise Florida St came out -17.5 and no movement since. That is just one line but it still seems odd (pun intended). BOL
IN 2014 Notre Dame faces the toughest schedule in the nation according to Phil Steele. Yet he has them ranked #17 in his preseason poll. I don’t see it. In 2013 the Irish finished #74 in scoring offense (27.2 ppg) and #27 in scoring defense (22.4 ppg). He also has them ranked #120 out of 128 teams in his experience rankings. They return 11 starters but that does not include QB Golson who sat out last year for scholastic reasons.
So does the return of Golson make a difference much less that much of a difference. In 2012 N Dame finished #78 in scoring offense (25.77 ppg) with Golson and #2 in scoring defense (10.93 ppg). Well Golson does not play middle LB so I don’t get it. In 2012 Golson ranked #61 in total offense (225.25 ypg). In 2013 QB Tommy Rees finished #43 in total offense (246.2 ypg)
HC Brian Kelly brought in new DC Brian VanGorder to help get the defense back to snuff. They return 5 starters on defense. Only DT Sheldon day and LB Jaylon Smith return from their front seven.
In 2013 N Dame beat Michigan St by 4, Arizona St by 3, USC by 4, and Navy by 4. In 2014 they play Michigan (revenger for Mich), Stanford (lost to them LY), N. Carolina (DNP LY) , Florida St (DNP LY), Navy (another revenger), Arizona St (another revenger), Northwestern (DNP LY), Louisville (DNP LY), and finishes up at USC (another revenger)
Which affects the team most, getting Golson back or losing to defensive players to the NFL.
Again, I do not see this team making the final top 25. Too many hurdles and all of them are high not low. They are a public team to boot so maybe the lines will reflect the rankings, I hope so. I would not be surprised if Rice gave them a good game in their season opener but the game with Michigan on week 2 will be a better guage. They lost to Michigan in 2013 30-41. We shall see. BOL
So does the return of Golson make a difference much less that much of a difference. In 2012 N Dame finished #78 in scoring offense (25.77 ppg) with Golson and #2 in scoring defense (10.93 ppg). Well Golson does not play middle LB so I don’t get it. In 2012 Golson ranked #61 in total offense (225.25 ypg). In 2013 QB Tommy Rees finished #43 in total offense (246.2 ypg)
HC Brian Kelly brought in new DC Brian VanGorder to help get the defense back to snuff. They return 5 starters on defense. Only DT Sheldon day and LB Jaylon Smith return from their front seven.
In 2013 N Dame beat Michigan St by 4, Arizona St by 3, USC by 4, and Navy by 4. In 2014 they play Michigan (revenger for Mich), Stanford (lost to them LY), N. Carolina (DNP LY) , Florida St (DNP LY), Navy (another revenger), Arizona St (another revenger), Northwestern (DNP LY), Louisville (DNP LY), and finishes up at USC (another revenger)
Which affects the team most, getting Golson back or losing to defensive players to the NFL.
Again, I do not see this team making the final top 25. Too many hurdles and all of them are high not low. They are a public team to boot so maybe the lines will reflect the rankings, I hope so. I would not be surprised if Rice gave them a good game in their season opener but the game with Michigan on week 2 will be a better guage. They lost to Michigan in 2013 30-41. We shall see. BOL
After serving a suspension over the fall semester last season for using "poor judgement on a test," quarterback Everett Golson returned to the Notre Dame football program this fall. Now, Golson has reportedly earned back the starting quarterback job, beating out sophomore Malik Zaire.
Irish coach Brian Kelly revealed the news Wednesday that Golson will start the season opener against Rice, per Dan Murphy of 247Sports:
Irish coach Brian Kelly revealed the news Wednesday that Golson will start the season opener against Rice, per Dan Murphy of 247Sports:
2 weeks from now this forum will be in a frenzy. Guys like GS and me will be on page 5 as everyone will be looking for someone else to pick them a winner. LOL
Close to the truth but the truth is there is good stuff on here. It is up to each of us to make picks based on the most accurate and reliable information available. There is a lot of that on this forum. Learning to handicap is a never ending process. You have to learn from experience. You can speed up the process by learning from the experience of others also but no one is right all of the time. There are a couple of guys on the NFL forum that are ripping up preseason football as we speak. That will happen here also. So at this time 2 weeks from now we will all be checking our hole card, hope it comes up Aces for everyone. BOL
Close to the truth but the truth is there is good stuff on here. It is up to each of us to make picks based on the most accurate and reliable information available. There is a lot of that on this forum. Learning to handicap is a never ending process. You have to learn from experience. You can speed up the process by learning from the experience of others also but no one is right all of the time. There are a couple of guys on the NFL forum that are ripping up preseason football as we speak. That will happen here also. So at this time 2 weeks from now we will all be checking our hole card, hope it comes up Aces for everyone. BOL
I often mention philsteele.com which I think is a must read. I should also mention pointwise sports who put out a hell of a newsletter with easy to follow stats and info. I have been taking it for years. They also publish another newsletter called The Red Sheet which is a notch up as far as picks go. Combined they are well worth the money and both are available on downloads. There are several other newsletter publications but Pointwise is my favorite and one I have relied on for a long time. BOL
