My Off Season Thread - 2014

[rolltide]

Russ, what parlays are you looking at for this week? I've been playing around with a few games to see what kind of odds I can get. Its pretty chalky but FSU, South Carolina, and Georgia ML parlay looks like it has a good shot to me. $100 pays $81 on 5dimes. You get two SEC homes teams and the best team in the country.

think i ran the USCe #'s and they were SU 20-0-1 as a week 1 fav so historically it's not a bad add for a ML parlay. aTm failed to cover all 4 road games in the conference last year

FWIW this is only 4th time since 1981 clemson has been a road dog and lost previous 3 games ... 2 of those vs UGA

FSU is best team in country and won't have an issue.

 

[rolltide]

guess it was actually 21-0-1 ... tied boise in 2001

team = SCAR and game number = 1 and F
SU: 21-0-1 (15.95, 100.0%) Teaser Records ATS: 10-11-1 (1.50, 47.6%) avg line: -14.5 +6: 15-7-0 (68.2%) -6: 9-13-0 (40.9%) +10: 16-6-0 (72.7%) -10: 6-16-0 (27.3%) O/U: 2-5-0 (-5.00, 28.6%) avg total: 48.6 +6: 2-5-0 (28.6%) -6: 3-4-0 (42.9%) +10: 1-6-0 (14.3%) -10: 3-4-0 (42.9%)
Rushes Rush Yds Passes Comp Pass Yds TOs Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Final Team 38.9 189.1 24.9 14.6 175.7 1.9 6.4 7.1 9.3 8.3 29.5 Opp 34.9 104.7 34.4 19.9 171.3 2.1 2.4 6.3 1.9 1.9 13.5
Date Link Day Week Season Team Opp Site Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Final Line Total SUm ATSm OUm DPS DPA SUr ATSr OUr ot Aug 28, 2014 Thursday 1 2014 SCAR TXAM home -10.5 57.0

 

[russ1945]

Will Gardner

Aug. 24, 2014
LOUISVILLE, Ky. - - University of Louisville head football coach Bobby Petrino announced that quarterback Will Gardner has been named the starting quarterback when the Cardinals open the 2014 season and ACC play against Miami on Sept. 1 at Papa John's Cardinal Stadium.
"I thought Will and outstanding fall camp," said head coach Bobby Petrino "He demonstrated good decision-making and executed our offense."
Gardner, a native of Douglas, Ga., replaces first-round draft pick Teddy Bridgewater, who was selected by the Minnesota Vikings with the 32nd-pick in May.
Last season, Gardner played in six games as a back-up to Bridgewater. He made his collegiate debut in a 49-7 season-opening win last year versus Ohio, throwing for 61 yards and a 30-yard touchdown to Kai DeLa Cruz. He was a perfect 5-for-5 for 42 yards in a 72-0 win over FIU. Scholastically, Gardner played at Coffee High and was a three-year starter. He was considered one of the top prospects in the state of Georgia by the Atlanta-Journal Constitution.

 

[russ1945]

a few significant line moves:

Tulsa opened at -4 and is now -6.5

Ohio St opened at -17 before the Miller injury and dropped to -12.5 and is now back up to -14.5

BC opened at -14.5 and took a big jump today to -17

Texas opened up at -24.5 and is now -25.5

Florida St was stuck at -17.5 and is now down to -16.5

Florida opened at -34.5 and is now at -36.5

 

[candylicker]

few of those ou ras... that's why they moved... thnks for all the info

 

[SundayTiger]

Where are you seeing 16.5 for FSU? Not seeing that anywhere.

I totally hear you with the ML parlay, and betting the dogs. Def a horse players mentality there. Betting favs in ML parlays isn't something I do often, but I just have a good feeling about this one.

 

[russ1945]

Where are you seeing 16.5 for FSU? Not seeing that anywhere.

I totally hear you with the ML parlay, and betting the dogs. Def a horse players mentality there. Betting favs in ML parlays isn't something I do often, but I just have a good feeling about this one.

It's more or less a private line I have access to. I have seen it as high as 19. That is why I thought the -16.5 was strange.

 

[russ1945]

^^^^back up to 17.5 again. somebody hit it pretty hard this morning.

 

[russ1945]

I kind of like Kent St for a few reasons. One big reason is the sudden death of Jason Bitsko (T). No doubt the Golden Flashes will be dedicating this home opener to his memory and rightly so. In addition last season Kent St finished off their season with a win over Ohio 44-13. They finished the season at 4-8 way off of their 11-3 record in 2012. But new HC Paul Haynes had two major obstacles in weeks 3 & 4, they played LSU and Penn St back to back and lost by a combined score of 89-13. I think they suffered the hangover of those two games for quite a while. This year they welcome back 13 starters with the loss of Bitsko. They return QB Colin Reardon, leading rusher Traylon Durham, and leading receiver Chris Humphrey. By the same token Ohio loses their career leading passer, top rusher, and their leading receiver. The Bobcats return only 4 on offense but have 8 returning on defense. Kent St has won this matchup 4 of the past 5 years. I think they do it again this time out. I think emotions will run high in Kent this week end.

 

[russ1945]

It is hard to believe but last year Florida St won 14 games because in the past 4 seasons Colorado has won only 13. However 3 of those wins were over Colorado St. Those two meet for the third straight season on opening week. Last year Colorado prevailed 41-27 on their way to a 4-8 season. This year they have second year HC Mike MacIntyre and 16 returning starters. They return their top QB, their top 6 rushers, and 4 of their top 5 receivers although their top receiver is gone. Out of conference games are very important to this team since their Pac 12 success has been limited to say the least. They also return 13 of their top 16 tacklers.
Colorado St returns 12 starters from a team that finished last season at 8-6. They have only 1 returning starter on the OL. They lose their top 3 rushers. That is a bad combination to begin with and how well they can protect returning QB Grayson remains to be seen.
I think this is a game that will get Colorado’s full attention. I like MacIntyre as a HC and I think his running game will be the difference when all is said and done. Last year Colorado was favored in only 3 games and won all 3.

 

[SundayTiger]

I wanted to pass this link along. It has all the week 1 newletters uploaded to the site below.


http://onthegamblersside. com/news/most-popular-stories/

 

[russ1945]

Replay Schedule 2014 College Football TV Schedule Archived Schedules

Scores: DI-A | DI-AA | CBS | ESPN | GameTrack1 | GameTrack2 | NCAA || Sirius/XM | Links: DI-A | DI-AA Game Time CT Network (Channel Guide) Wednesday, August 27th Abilene Christian at Georgia State 6:00 p.m. ESPNU / watchespn Thursday, August 28th (College Football DirecTV printable schedule)​ Texas A&M at South Carolina 5:00 p.m. SECN / SECN Video Eastern Illinois at Minnesota 6:00 p.m. BTN / BTN2GO Video Wake Forest at Louisiana Monroe 6:00 p.m. ESPNU / watchespn Idaho State at Utah 6:30 p.m. PAC-12 Network (HD) / Pac-12 Video Boise State vs. Ole Miss (Atlanta) 7:00 p.m. ESPN / watchespn Cal Poly at New Mexico State 7:00 p.m. ALT / FSAZ / FSSW+ / Aggie Vision / espn3 Tulane at Tulsa 7:00 p.m. CBSSN Temple at Vanderbilt 8:15 p.m. SECN / SECN Video Rutgers at Washington State 9:00 p.m. FS1 / FOX Sports GO Weber State at Arizona State 9:30 p.m. PAC-12 Network (HD) / Pac-12 Video Games online only or not yet scheduled for nationally available networks. Bryant at Stony Brook 6:00 p.m. $ULive Video Charlotte at Campbell 6:00 p.m. Big South Video Chattanooga at Central Michigan 6:00 p.m. espn3 Eastern Kentucky at Robert Morris 6:00 p.m. NEC Front Row Video Howard at Akron 6:00 p.m. espn3 Kentucky Christian at Tennessee Tech 7:00 p.m. OVC Video / WCTE (cable) Missouri Baptist at SE Missouri State 6:00 p.m. OVC Video North Dakota at San Jose State 9:00 p.m. espn3 Point at Charleston Southern 6:00 p.m. Big South Video Presbyterian at Northern Illinois 6:00 p.m. espn3 Reinhardt at Mercer 6:00 p.m. espn3 Taylor at Southern Illinois 7:00 p.m. $ULive Video Union (KY) at Murray State 7:00 p.m. OVC Video Valparaiso at Western Illinois 6:00 p.m. WIU-TV3 (cable) / espn3 Friday, August 29th BYU at UConn 6:00 p.m. ESPN / watchespn Bowling Green at Western Kentucky 6:30 p.m. CBSSN Jacksonville State at Michigan State 6:30 p.m. BTN / BTN2GO Video Villanova at Syracuse 6:30 p.m. espn3 Colorado vs. Colorado State (Denver) 8:00 p.m. FS1 / FOX Sports GO UTSA at Houston 8:00 p.m. ESPNU / watchespn UNLV at Arizona 9:30 p.m. ESPN / watchespn Saturday, August 30th Penn State vs. UCF 7:30 a.m. ESPN2 / watchespn Appalachian State at Michigan 11:00 a.m. ESPN2 / watchespn Indiana State at Indiana 11:00 a.m. ESPN News / watchespn North Dakota State at Iowa State 11:00 a.m. FS1 / FOX Sports GO Northern Iowa at Iowa 11:00 a.m. BTN / BTN2GO Video Ohio State at Navy (Baltimore) 11:00 a.m. CBSSN / $ULive Video Troy at UAB 11:00 a.m. DTV: 608 / FCSC (cable) / FOX Sports GO UCLA at Virginia 11:00 a.m. ESPN / watchespn UT Martin at Kentucky 11:00 a.m. SECN / SECN Video Western Michigan at Purdue 11:00 a.m. ESPNU / watchespn Youngstown State at Illinois 11:00 a.m. BTN / BTN2GO Video Georgia Southern at NC State 11:30 a.m. (ESPN-GP / espn3) *2 / ACC Network Wofford at Georgia Tech 11:30 a.m. FSN Affiliates / FOX Sports GO / RSN / (ESPN-GP / espn3) *2 Alabama vs. West Virginia (Atlanta) 2:30 p.m. ABC / ESPN2 / watchespn California at Northwestern 2:30 p.m. ABC / ESPN2 / watchespn Florida Atlantic at Nebraska 2:30 p.m. BTN / BTN2GO Video James Madison at Maryland 2:30 p.m. BTN / BTN2GO Video Rice at Notre Dame 2:30 p.m. NBC / Video South Dakota State at Missouri 2:30 p.m. ESPNU / watchespn Arkansas at Auburn 3:00 p.m. SECN / SECN Video Montana at Wyoming 3:00 p.m. RSRM / RSNW / DTV: 101? / MWC Video1 / MWC Video2 Portland State at Oregon State 3:00 p.m. PAC-12 Network (HD) / Pac-12 Video UC Davis at Stanford 3:00 p.m. PAC-12 Network (HD) / Pac-12 Video William & Mary at Virginia Tech 3:00 p.m. ESPN News / watchespn Clemson at Georgia 4:30 p.m. ESPN / watchespn Central Arkansas at Texas Tech 6:00 p.m. FSN Affiliates / FOX Sports GO Idaho at Florida 6:00 p.m. ESPNU / watchespn Louisiana Tech at Oklahoma 6:00 p.m. FSN PPV Northern Arizona at San Diego State 6:00 p.m. CBSSN Samford at TCU 6:00 p.m. FSN Affiliates / FCSC (cable) / FOX Sports GO Fresno State at USC 6:30 p.m. FOX / FOX Deportes Southern Miss at Mississippi State 6:30 p.m. SECN / SECN Video Florida State vs. Oklahoma State (Arlington) 7:00 p.m. ABC NC Central at East Carolina 7:00 p.m. ESPN News / watchespn North Texas at Texas 7:00 p.m. LHN LSU vs. Wisconsin (Houston) 8:00 p.m. ESPN / watchespn South Dakota at Oregon 9:30 p.m. PAC-12 Network (HD) / Pac-12 Video Washington at Hawaii 9:30 p.m. CBSSN Games online only or not yet scheduled for nationally available networks. Arkansas Pine Bluff at Texas State 6:00 p.m. espn3 Austin Peay at Memphis 6:00 p.m. espn3 Bethune Cookman at Florida International 6:00 p.m. ASN info (details TBA) Boston College at UMass 2:00 p.m. espn3 Coastal Carolina at The Citadel 5:00 p.m. SoCon Video Colgate at Ball State 1:00 p.m. espn3 Delaware at Pittsburgh 11:00 a.m. espn3 Delaware State at Monmouth 12:00 p.m. Big South Video Duquesne at Buffalo 2:30 p.m. espn3 Edward Waters at Tennessee State 6:00 p.m. OVC Video Elon at Duke 5:00 p.m. espn3 Gardner Webb at Furman 6:00 p.m. SoCon Video Grambling at Lamar 7:00 p.m. ULive Video Hampton at Old Dominion 2:30 p.m. ASN (.pdf affiliates) / $Video Holy Cross at Albany 5:00 p.m. espn3 Liberty at North Carolina 5:00 p.m. espn3 Marist at Sacred Heart 5:00 p.m. NEC Front Row Video Marshall at Miami Ohio 2:30 p.m. espn3 Montana State at Arkansas State 6:00 p.m. espn3 / Cowles Media (cable) Morgan State at Eastern Michigan 5:00 p.m. espn3 New Hampshire at Toledo 6:00 p.m. espn3 Nicholls State at Air Force 1:00 p.m. espn3 Ohio at Kent State 5:00 p.m. espn3 Sacramento State at Incarnate Word 8:00 p.m. Video (not sure if free) Saint Francis at Fordham 5:00 p.m. PLN Video Savannah State at Middle Tennessee 6:00 p.m. Sidearm Video Southern at Louisiana Lafayette 6:00 p.m. espn3 Southern Utah at Nevada 2:00 p.m. MWC Video1 / MWC Video2 Stephen F. Austin at Kansas State 6:00 p.m. $ULive Video Stetson at Warner 6:00 p.m. Video (not sure if free) UM Western at Eastern Washington 8:00 p.m. Big Sky Video / SWX (cable) UTEP at New Mexico 7:00 p.m. MWC Video1 / MWC Video2 VMI at Bucknell 5:00 p.m. PLN Video Wagner at Georgetown 11:00 a.m. $ULive Video Western Carolina at South Florida 6:00 p.m. espn3 Sunday, August 31st Alabama A&M vs. North Carolina A&T 10:45 a.m. ESPN / watchespn Prairie View vs. Texas Southern 4:00 p.m. TBA, possible for KHOU (cable) Utah State at Tennessee 6:00 p.m. SECN / SECN Video SMU at Baylor 6:30 p.m. FS1 / FCSC (cable) / FOX Sports GO Monday, September 1st Miami at Louisville 7:00 p.m. ESPN / watchespn

(from lsufootball.com)

 

[russ1945]

Both of my top picks are big favorites.

Baylor plays on Sunday night and will have the attention of most of the nation being that Monday is a holiday. Baylor only lost 2 games in 2013 and both were embarrassing. Okla St hosted them and beat them 17-49 and they lost their bowl game to UCF 52-42. The Bears return only 9 starters but that includes QB Bryce Petty who they will be show casing as a Heisman candidate. He will be throwing to very capable receivers and they have a talented RB in Shock Linwood.
On defense Baylor allowed 360 yds per game after giving up 500 ypg in 2012. They are pretty deep at DT but they could at least meet last year’s stats. They do have some Jr College transfers that could step up and if they do then Baylor may have found a way to plug a hole.

To pull this week’s spread the defense will have to create a turn over or two and get tough in the red zone Offensively in their last 3 openers Baylor has scored 50 – 59 and 69 points respectively.

SMU loses QB Garrett Gilbert(their #2 career passer) and last years running game was nothing to brag about. June Jones still runs the show and is involved in the play calling. Last year’s loss to Houston 0-37 still gets my attention. Baylor’s offense is a load and their special teams could play a part also. All in all I simply can’t bet against Baylor in this matchup. If they score 49 or more I think they can do it



Alabama is also a big favorite. Talk about a team that is itching to take the field. How often does an Alabama team take the field following back to back losses. Motivation is on their side along with all the other positive factors that lean their way. Their loss to Auburn was as fluke as they come. They outgained Oklahoma in their bowl game and averaged 6.88 yard per rush but 5 TO’s did them in.

HC Holgerson is on the hot seat in W Virginia and under the circumstances could not be pitted against an opponent who is hungrier to make a statement. That goes from Saban all the way down to the water boy. They return 13 starters but lose their top rusher in Sims. In last year’s opener they only scored 24 points against William and Mary after being favored by 33 points.

I look for Alabama to come out of the blocks hungry and shooting for a shut out. I think they score 42 points or more and that should be plenty. I see them as being tough to stop in the redzone and with what Henry showed in their bowl game I would not be surprised to see them break a couple of big plays. WV will probably crowd the line of scrimmage but although the Bama QB will be starting his first game he has 5 of last year’s top receivers returning.


Both teamss are big favorites but they are big favorites for a reason.

 

[CoachCB]

All this info....and I had to go to the 3rd page to find it...because every asshole in the world has "his plays" posted.....

 

[russ1945]

All this info....and I had to go to the 3rd page to find it...because every asshole in the world has "his plays" posted.....

We knew that was coming lol. By the way after watching Texas A&M break SC's 18 game home streak it is obvious that Sumlin has it going on down there. Johnny Football's records look like they are already in jeopardy. Looks like the system works well and Manziel got the benefit of it. Tonight Kenny Hill's debut was as good as it gets.

 

[CoachCB]

We knew that was coming lol. By the way after watching Texas A&M break SC's 18 game home streak it is obvious that Sumlin has it going on down there. Johnny Football's records look like they are already in jeopardy. Looks like the system works well and Manziel got the benefit of it. Tonight Kenny Hill's debut was as good as it gets.

I promptly started 0-2 last night. Thankfully I make very, very small bets in week 1 & 2. Learned my lesson years ago on making regular/large plays in week 1 (Wazzou was my other loss)....and both losses the underdog won outright! Damn it!

 

[russ1945]

If you haven't noticed new HC's are now 1-5 SU and 1-5 ATS. The only winner being Jeff Brohm and W. Kentucky.

 

[alkimyst]

New coach angle. Good point. I'll keep an eye out for that.

Great info, as always.

 

[CoachCB]

WKU looked pretty good. They've put together a string of good seasons w/ 3 different head coaches in the last 3 years...

So, do we go against Petrino at Louisville w/ this trend?

 

[russ1945]

WKU looked pretty good. They've put together a string of good seasons w/ 3 different head coaches in the last 3 years...

So, do we go against Petrino at Louisville w/ this trend?

I am going with Petrino and Louisville. He has more to work with at Louisville than he did at WKU but he got WKU over the hump. I like Petrino as an "in game coach" and I like his staff. Who would you be taking if Strong was still at Louisville. Sure Bridgewater has move on but now that is water under the bridge. Sorry LOL