Mls 2013

[ExeR]

NER @ Vancouver:
Multiple reasons again for me. On first look, betting against NER whole season was like flipping a coin. They just play their turtle style and you never know if hosts will be able to crack it and win. But at least odds are at 2.0, so even if it's true it's not a dumb bet. But many things are different for this particular game.
1) Vancouver is in great shape. Many important players returning from their injuries. They are actually winning on the road. Their last game agains Seattle (one of the worst matchups in playing style) they lost only because of stupid penalty. They had lead for a long time, but couldn't hold on starting and finishing storm of the hosts. However, this game they are at home, and at home they are elite team, with a lot of goalscoring. So they are more than capable of testing NER defence. So in terms of hosts, this is the best situation to bet them: at home, roster is strong, great form.
2) NER is coming off midweek game, now flying to Canada. Already a tough spot. Their last results are scary, but they caugh strong teams in difficult spots (like game with LA and Houston). After that they cooled off a little: played 0-0 with DC and allowed NY to score twice in the cup. Their play is not the same as just couple of games before.
3) With both team's profile in mind, their matchup looks interesting too. NER is in a weird spot, because they had all that success not so long ago, and their offence is much more improved in last month. So it will be dumb for them to play like they did against Seattle or Portland with 10 man on defence. But whatever they choose, Vancouver is good with both. They are slow starters, and they lost many points by allowing teams to score on them. If NER is defending from begining, this won't be the case. And Vancouver has great attacking potential to deal with NER defence. If NER try to play equals, they will get themselves into "Vancouvers game". More stamina, better talent, better set pieces, home support. NER only have better counters, but it's more logical to use it through defencive approach. So among all possible playing styles and formations, Vancouver will have advantage.
So in conclusion you can put it as simple as: great home team with good shape and healthy roster playing mediocre guests with weaker form in tough spot. Add to this all things mentioned before, and you have yourself a great bet at 2+ odds.
Vancouver Whitecaps Win @ 2.00 Pinnacle 1u

Montreal @ Columbus:
Yes, I bet Montreal every game. But really, odds are good on their +0.25. This is allowing to cash even on draws, and I'm sure they won't have 50% losses on the road this year. So line value is there, now to the football reasons:
1) They played in Montreal not so long ago. I remembe that game. I thought that there were easier bets than this, because game was kind of close, but still result was unfair. Columbus scored on some sick finish, they had very few moments, and my only concern was that Montreal was not dominating in that game. Well, now they are on the road, and we don't need to bet them at <2 to win game. Now it's almost 2 for +0.25. Montreal is capable of doing damage on the road, and Columbus is at the bottom of the table at home. So switching fields may not be that big of a deal as odds suggest.
2) Teams are moving in different directions. While Montreal getting road wins against strong teams, Columbus fails to get results in cups and against weaker teams in the league. Their last fail against Phily was really stupid, because they did one thing, that really burned them vs same opponent before. It really shows that they are not prepairing well, and their coach can make crucial mistakes.
3) Both teams have problems, but let's compare them. Montreal miss Nesta and have small amount of defender. But this story repeat itself time and time again and it never was a real problem for MTL. They have great high workload midfielders, and team is very capable in counters. So they defend not only with actual defenders, but use most of the team. And when they get the ball they run and execute in counters. So Nesta not playing never have been the problem for this team. You can worry for their attack more, but hopefully Di Vaio will find his touch on the road, and he helps others to contribute. They looked much better on offence in their last road games.
Columbus is in much deeper shit. First of all, they have their cup game postponed. So they will play on Thursday. It's a very short rest for a team that's already in tough schedule position, many injuries, many rusty players. They will ride Higuain and Oduro to death, because they have no other players to produce results. And coaching can strike again, because they won't have practice or preparation, just regeneration session. So even if game will be game of chances, they won't be too sharp to turn rare moments into goal. Montreal commits a lot of fouls and can be hurt on set pieces, but Columbus is not too dangerous, and their execution is really straight forward. Same freekick/corner takers doing same uneffective plays.
Very hard spot for hosts, who are weaker even without all the scheduling problems. No rest, no preparation, poor form. List goes on. Betting Montreal to win at smaller stakes too.
Montreal Impact +0.25 @ 1.91 Pinnacle 1u
*there are some improvements to this particular bet as I watch their cup game. I forgot that Columbus is very prone to counter attacks, so Montreal can have easier time converting. Also they have injury to Glauber and play Oduro from early minutes. They wanted to rest him, but now he must play two in a row with 2 days rest.

 

[ExeR]

Chicago win 2-1
Cup went well again. Need to get MLS back on track this weekend.

 

[ExeR]

Not playing these big, leans for totals:
NER @ Vancouver >2.5 (2.22)
Toronto @ DC <2.5 (1.8)
Dallas @ Portland >2.5 (1.88)
Portland win (2.00)
Won't touch Colorado-SJ game. SJ problems are deeper than what can be fixed with coaching change. But you never know what this little change can do to a team. With Chivas it did nothing, but it's a different story. Colorado had a great run, but seems that their game is getting worse. Draw with SJ not long ago, cup loss, pretty bad perfomance in draw against Dallas. Going for under with this team is never a bad option, but whole situation is screaming to stay away of it.

 

[ExeR]

Chivas @ Vancouver:
*you can skip this part
My attempt with totals failed last time, but I made additional research this time and this particular game shine for different reasons.
First of all this is the meeting of two "over" teams, but odds on over are very low already. There would be ton of value in early line, but there's still some left. I made a profiling of whole league, to see what goal stats push teams to finish seasons with significant difference in over/unders. Most of the teams finish with 17-17 or 16-18 stats, and just 7 had 20-14 etc. So among those teams 3 are underish and 4 are overish. So with profiles of goal stats for last season, I made projected ones for this season. Currently there are 3 over and 4 under teams. Their early season stats already show that it's right concept, with under teams being 10-5 9-6 11-4 11-4 in unders, and over teams being 8-7 9-5 8-5 in overs. So profiling makes sence, and there are different ways you can be over team or under team. Since we have 2 over teams, there are:
1) score about 35, allow more than 60. This is Chivas this season. Toronto had same stats last season, and they finished with 20-14 in overs. From profile it's obvious, that they had many big losses, and some where they helped with scoring, but still allowed 2 or more.
2) Score more than 45, allow more than 50 or score more than 50 and allow more than 45. This is Vancouver. LA had same stats last season, Montreal had reversed one. It's for teams who score a lot, but can't really keep their goal safe. 2-1 is their score. LA and Montreal finished 19-15 and 20-14 last season.
So these two teams playing leave all kinds of possibilities for over. Goal from away team, and multiple from hosts, 3-0 win for hosts and etc.
*you can skip what's before

So, with over result in mind, let's look at matchup.
Chivas is struggling, coaching change might help, but they still have same players. They haven't played for a while, but they lost a lot of games before that. Lost winnable cup game too. This might be too much rest case and they are still the side that should show a lot, before you even start considering them dangerous.
Vancouver is playing at home. Situation haven't changed a lot since last week's writeup. They allowed early storm to punish them again, but they were able to go and get a win. So their home form is great. It will be a tough place for Chivas to make a surprise perfomance. So win is not a question mark here, question mark is can Vancouver with by 2 goals or more. They only did it once agains LA so far. But here's where Chivas and "over" stats should help. Chivas had plenty of 2 goal losses. Vancouver had a very tough schedule in home games, Toronto was first game (derby and still winter weather), NER was in great shape last week and all other teams were elite ones. They haven't played teams as bad as Chivas yet. And Chivas left strong home sides like SKC Portland with 0-3 0-4 scores. One more reasons is this:
Chivas allow same number of goals on the road and at home (54%/46%), but they score more at home than on the road (61%/39%)
Vancouver is allowing 44/56, but they score much more at home, than on the road 68%/32%.
So these combined shift possible outcomes to more one-sided Vancouver wins, than some 2-1. They'll probably get 3 goals by themselves. Pinnacle doesn't have line I need, so my optional plays are:
Vancouver -1 @ 2.07 Bet365 0.75u
Over 2.75 @ 1.9 Pinnacle 0.25u

Houston @ Montreal:
There's plenty of reasons to stay away from home win in this one, but not for me. Taking MTL to win at home @ 2 odds is autobet. Hopefully Houston got back to their usual road form, at 0-3 cup lose to Dallas. Eastern teams are much weaker hosts this season, but still those odds cover all of this.
As for total, there's some interesting trends leading to this game. Montreal is on edge of becoming over team. They are to this point (7-6 in overs), but their projected goals total still leave some uncertainty. They had 45-51 last year and were 20-14 in over, they are projected 57-44 this year. It's in the area of LA Galaxy's last season, where they had 59-47 and finished 19-15 in overs. And ofcourse Mtl is great for overs at home, where they score much more, and allow almost as much as they do in away games.
Houston also adds value to over, because their totals record doesn't match their profile. They are normal team, which usually finishes 17-17 or near that for the season. But right now they are sitting at 4-10 in overs. They had some polar results, with 1-0 victories, and then 2-3 losses or 4-0 wins. So maybe they will stay abnormal, but more realistically they will even it out with some overs run. Plus June has been very productive month, with 3 goals scored on average in the league. So this is a very good situation to take over at great odds.
Montreal win 0.5u
Over 2.5 0.25u

 

[ExeR]

Portland @ LA:
Odds are pretty ridiculous in this one. It's not only reasonable to play it as is, with best road team getting 3.9 price on pk, but there are many more stats for this situation.
West teams this season are playing very well at home. They have 24W-13D-7L (East teams in contrast have 22-14-15). LA themselves are 2W-1D vs West this season and 8-1-3 last season. They are not a regular home team, but neither is visiting Portland. They have 5 draws against west opponents, but their road game is great and they've been at some tough places like Dallas Vancouver Seattle.
So even if we forget current LA perfomances, and give them every credit they deserve, those odds still provide positive expectation on betting Portland. +1 is at great price, and if you add minimal losses in the mix of those stats, LA will be nowhere near to cover 1.6+ that Portland has on +goal. So you can go with +0.75 handicap or do it safe:
Portland +1 @ 1.64 0.75u
Portland +0.5 @ 2.2 0.25u

Colorado @ Chicago:
Not betting this one, but some info. Chicago is heating up, effectiveness of shots on goal rising. They have decent odds to win, and play much better lately. On the other hand, they face Colorado, who's been a team you should not bet against. Their last game was not good, but those penalties/red cards dumb moves by some players doesn't really tell how team is playing, but they affect result of single game a lot.
This game is the only interconference game of the day, and it has been one sided this season. West is playing much better on the road, with 9wins 6 draws and 7 losses in AWAY games (East is 5-5-11 @ away games vs West). Colorado has 1 win (Columbus) and 1 draw (Houston) personal record. So this is something to think about if you want to bet Chicago. Historically teams play worse in away games vs other conference teams, but this season West has edge. So may be it will even out, but so far betting West guests vs East hosts has been very good.
As for totals, these are two teams that are good for under. Colorado has very good "under" profile, and Chicago is very close too it (they need to improve their defence a little).

 

[ExeR]

Vancouver -1 @ 2.07 Bet365 0.75u Win
Over 2.75 @ 1.9 Pinnacle 0.25u Win
Score: 3-1
Portland +1 @ 1.64 0.75u Win
Portland +0.5 @ 2.2 0.25u Win
Score: 0-0
Montreal win @ 2 0.5u Win
Over 2.5 @ 2.04 0.25u Lose
Score: 2-0 (shoud've been 5 goals at least)

 

[the1yankee]

Thanks 4 tha van play ex helped me close a parlay

 

[ExeR]

Thanks 4 tha van play ex helped me close a parlay

Cup results:
13 w 4l 1void

MLS results:
27.5 w 18l 3voids 14.66% return

 

[ExeR]

Chivas - LA:
Even though home field for both teams, Chivas never played better or had advantage at home, while LA is always strong in their building. Their defence is great at home this year (best in the league, even better than NER), Gonzalez is back. Many problems and bad results for LA were results of constantly changing roster and absences. Anyway most of those happened on the road, at home they only dropped points against Chivas (back then they had miracle start) and it was 10 man last minutes goal and game against Houston, where Donovan missed pk and Keane was not in lineup. Last draw against Portland shouldn't be counted, not the game they will win more times than not. So LA is pretty good at home, and they have optimal roster. Team is good enough to trust in them even after couple of bad road results. Chivas can't keep up for 90 minutes, at 70 they are done and they are coming from midweek game in Canada. Let them bring their best with weak stamina like that.
LA Galaxy -0.75 @ 1.752 1u

 

[ExeR]

LA Galaxy -0.75 @ 1.752 1u Half Win
Score: 1-0

 

[ExeR]

RSL @ Toronto:
I think everytime you have an opportunity to bet on of the best teams at the moment at +0.25 with such a good odds against hosts like Toronto, you have to take it. There's should be no overthinking in this one. Some reasons:
Toronto historically doesn't win more than 9 out of 17 at home. This season has been no different. RSL is taking points more often, than they lose on the road (9vs8 on average). So if you combine these two, you have the idea of %. This season Toronto has been worse with winning at home, and RSL has been more successfull on the road. So with RSL being profitable at this kind of bet against "stronger" league in general (league average is 9 home wins), you have to like their chances vs poor hosts like Toronto. And there are plenty of football reasons too. RSL had two great months, and their current form is scary. In June they demolished everybody during home stretch, and before that they had great road trip in May. As for Toronto, they can scare some weak teams with their pressure, but don't think it will work this time. Other than that, there have been nothing special about their play, their last results were impressive only by their standarts, and those results were undeserved anyway. Some would say that having a lot of players is good trouble to have, but not for Toronto's coach. Guy is substituting the substitute and putting combo of forwards that can't work together in principle. Nothing leads me to think that they can win this game at a clip to cover odds and be favourite. So, this is safest option. You can go from here all the way to RSl win, it will all be profitable imo. As always, I'm sticking with safe one as my main play, and betting other options smaller:
RSL +0.25 @ 1.758 Pinnacle 1u

 

[ExeR]

RSL +0.25 @ 1.758 Pinnacle 1u Win
Score: 1-0


Just some thoughts:
There were a ton of easy bets today, so congrats to all who capitalized on them. Not possible for me to do all writeups and bets, it would take enormous amount of time. I'm not rewriting info over and over again (there's more than enough text here) so there is a lot of sense in checking previous posts to see the direction or leans. I wrote in the beginning or midmonth about overs hitting at great %. Since than it hasn't changed and just look at today's results. If you add >3 >3.5 for smaller sized to increase value it would be even more fantastic. It's a great example of the law of averages in action. This game day in particular.
Overs started hitting because beggining of the season was so underish. But if you look at connected stats (all this info was posted), there were no changes in shots and shots on goal averages. There was only one change in converting shots on goals into goal. And it was a very consistent number through the years. So it was safe to assume that it will change (dramatically for some teams like Chicago/Seattle). When you have league profile in terms of averages, it's safe to assume that in the end of the season everything will come to norm. And that's what is happening right now. And not only with overs and goals/shots ratio.
Dallas had a very good start to their season, and they are "supposed" to slow down. They won 7 out of 8 home games. That leaves 9 games. But in terms of wins, they should slow down, because 12 wins is a "limit" of home wins. It doesn't mean it can't be overachieved, but it's safe to assume that they won't break it. So it leaves them with 5 wins and 4 draw/losses in all other home games. And that makes situation for SKC much better, than if you look at their current season home/road records. It's pretty obvious that if Dallas will lose points, it will be against somebody strong on the road, like SKC. So that' what they did, they had a last minute draw. But if you don't take that info into consideration, it would be a much better picture for Dallas before that game.
Montreal proved it today too. Out of nowhere, Colorado that were on the course to some consecutive loss, came back 3 times and escaped with last second winner.
You can't predict/cap stuff like that, but you can expect it to happen. And when you combine that with odds getting much worse on those overachieving teams, it gives a great angle on undervalued dogs. Not exactly one you want to play, like Colorado today, but it can atleast stop from betting some favourites at bad prices in situation, where they are more likely to fail than before.


Unrelated to what's before, West teams continue to dominate East in interconference games (posted stats not long ago). I don't have enough history on interconference games, but last season it was very close in EastvsWest. And home teams were playing much better against away teams out of conference, than away teams from their conference. This season West is dominating, and today they continued with RSL >Toronto, Dallas=Phily, Vancouver > DC, Colorado > Montreal, and only home game for west Chivas=NER. So it's interesting to see if it's fluke and it will even out, or it's more of a scheduling thing and there's no real balance between conferences. Teams play each other only once, so scheduling is a decisive factor, because many teams perform completely opposite depending on home/away game.
Anyway, if you bet WestvsEast game, keep in mind that West have a pretty good edge this season.

 

[rolltide]

Unrelated to what's before, West teams continue to dominate East in interconference games (posted stats not long ago). I don't have enough history on interconference games, but last season it was very close in EastvsWest. And home teams were playing much better against away teams out of conference, than away teams from their conference. This season West is dominating, and today they continued with RSL >Toronto, Dallas=Phily, Vancouver > DC, Colorado > Montreal, and only home game for west Chivas=NER. So it's interesting to see if it's fluke and it will even out, or it's more of a scheduling thing and there's no real balance between conferences. Teams play each other only once, so scheduling is a decisive factor, because many teams perform completely opposite depending on home/away game.
Anyway, if you bet WestvsEast game, keep in mind that West have a pretty good edge this season.

started that way last year, especially with west dominance in home games, then balanced out and actually moved into the east's favor by end of year. http://thesoccerobserver.com/2012/10/26/east-beats-west-in-mls-inter-conference-play/


wild day yday....TFC missed some ridiculous chances and hard to believe they lost though nelsen decided to blame refs, not finishing. montreal losing leads of 2-1 and 3-2 then get hit on 96' counter to lose off a deflection. SKC's phenomenal back line was a comedy of errors again last night. Chivas USA finally got a point. Wacky ending in San Jose as they score 2x in stoppage to overturn a 2-1 deficit. Dallas with 96' equalizer though largely outplayed in philly. Vancouver with fairly predictable result against DC who will probably take all games off until next cup match.

 

[ExeR]

DC @ Seattle:
Those odds are quite bad for Seattle and usually it's a great stay away sign, because everything can happen. But there are different angles you can look at those odds and some of those angles can make you like them.
First of all, is 1.5 (which is winning 2 out of 3 to be even) so bad? DC road stats alone can make those odds seems like easy money. 0-2-5 with 1-10 goal difference. There is ofcourse a law of averages I spoke about, but in terms of road perfomance, league has no limit in being bad. 12+ losses in a season have been done multiple times before, so why the team that scored 1 goal in 7 road games and has -10 home goal difference should not be considered a candidate for equal record this season. So losing 2 out of 3 should not be problem for DC, even against weaker home teams than Seattle. Seattle at home always been strong and again, league in general is stronger than this particular DC team, so their record should be even better in games vs opponents like this.
So odds may look terrible, but in fact, they are not. So the only question is what to bet.
I think that -1.5 is the best option. Seattle has a great home field, with big crowd and it always get them going. Their goalscoring have been fantastic at home. After their slow start, they netted 4 vs SJ, 4 vs Dallas, 3 in come back victory over Vancouver. That, and the fact that they attack all 90 minutes gives a lot of confidence that they can win comfortably. Great home perfomance of Seattle has been watered down with schedule (less than 2 home games a month) and with their slow start and bad road results. And DC is in a tough scheduling spot too, even though they stayed at home, they played a lot of games before this one, and now going to another conference.
Seattle -1.5 @ 2.51 1u

 

[ExeR]

Phily @ RSL:
If it was a road game for RSL, it would be a great spot for them to stop their win streak. Wrote about winstreaks long time ago, but stats show that it's hard to keep them going, especially on the road. And bookies seem to give teams much more credit, with 50+% chances of home win, when it can be close to 40% historically. And in this game RSL will miss a lot of players. They have a great depth and a lot of quality substitutes, but still a reason to be cautious. Phily despite great results is very inconsistent in their results. LWWLDDWLD etc. So you never know what to expect. With 3 home game stretch they are now on a 4 game unbeaten streak, so might be a time to lose for them. So a very hard game to pick a side.
As for total I think going with over can be a good option. Besides two 3-0 in a row against Columbus and NYRB, and two 1-0 victories over Chicago, Phily's defence haven't had the best of times. It's not like I don't give them credit for anything, but on the road they are a very good team for overs. In every game they had at least 2 goals (4wins 3voids 1loss, with odds on over 2 goals being around 1.5). So even without counting those 3-5 losses to Montreal and 1-4 at home to LA as a signs of defencive quality, this is the team that in general good for overs. RSL with many new faces can have a problem with game discipline. Plus they are on a wrong side of over/unders. They have a good profile for finishing even or with more overs, but right now they are 6-12 in over/under. Reason is that they score 5 in 1 game, then go with couple of 1-0 2-0, so general stats show they are good for over, but results are different. So this should even out and all their overs happened in "over" situations. "Over" road teams like SJ LA, "over" home teams like MTL, Chivas. So "over" road team like Phily should make betting over at good odds profitable.
Real Salt Lake/Philadelphia Total Over 2.5 for Game 1.935 0.5u

Vancouver @ SKC:
Once again the spot, where +1 is at insanely good odds. This has been very good this season, so no reason to use it one more time.
Normally I won't touch Vancouver on the road, but so many reasons here you just can't ignore them and don't risk it.
First of all, SKC has one thing that I call "Memphis Grizzlies syndrome". It's what I used in the NBA and it's been very profitable. Anytime some particular strong team get a big handicap, you should bet against them, no matter how bad matchup looks in terms of "relative strength". Because when lowscoring, underish team (hello SKC profile) gets -11 in basketball, or -1 in futbol, they won't cover it anywhere close to what odds suggest. They will get the result most of the time, but it will be smaller handicap.
So with SKC, numbers speak for themselves when you look at them against -1 handicap in home games. Last season they had 10 wins and 7 non wins. 7 non wins are our wins, and among 10 wins just 3 were 2+ goals. So betting +1 on road team would be 7 wins, 7 returns, 3 losses. This season SKC is 4-2-3 at home, with two 2+ goal wins (1 against Chivas so shouldn't be counted really. So it would be 5 wins, 3 returns 2 losses. So you get the idea.
Odds that Vancouver has are 1.8+. It's more than enough and will make this bet profitable.
Another reason is that SKC is playing worse than before, and Vancouver finally starting to look capable on the road. With their road history, it's the team you shouldn't even consider on the road. But they had a very nice run recently, and won against NYRB, had a lead @ Seattle, won against DC. If there's any time you should take the risk with them, it's now. They had two great months and play better on the road. SKC allow a lot of goals and play much weaker than they can "on paper", and until they prove otherwise it safe to consider them overvalued by bookies, and their handicaps being bigger than they should.
So even with outcome of the game being tough to predict, line is giving SKC too much credit.
Vancouver Whitecaps +1 @ 1.813 1u

 

[ExeR]

There are 2 games left for today. With Chicago I missed on early odds. Chicago is still worth a shot with their current form and SJ taking points by some late game goals or some other random events. But even with matchup looking good, I don't want to try and pick something in every game, and this one is dangerous. But as opinion I like Chicago and over.

As for Toronto-Montreal, I still get the feeling that bookies are hopeless believers in Toronto.
For a team that only won 1 home game they are getting even odds. Montreal might not be scary on the road, but they won 3 games on the road, despite very tough schedule. Much tougher hosts, than Toronto can possbily be. Plus they dropped 1 against SJ. And Toronto even with all those last minute allowed goals, have almost as much scored. So their results are not trully objective (missed wins are more valueable than escapes with a draw) but their play is not affected by bad luck. So even if you give them all the credit they can possbily deserve and not count their 1 win in 8 home games as objective result, they would still be a mediocre home team. Montreal had success against much stronger ones. So taking pk on Montreal is an obvious side.
From this point there's only more value left to find. Draw at great price and should happen quite a lot, especially with rivalry type of game.
Montreal win can be considered, since all Toronto's losses happened when they played top teams, capable on the road (NYRB, Columbus, RSL and LA that ended as a draw). +0.25 as safe option to cash on draw results. I will probably go with combo of small bets, don't really want to bet it normally with suspension of coach, rivalry and some other small reasons to be cautios.

 

[ExeR]

Seattle -1.5 @ 2.51 1u
Score: 2-0
Real Salt Lake/Philadelphia Total Over 2.5 for Game 1.935 0.5u
Score: 2-2
Vancouver Whitecaps +1 @ 1.813 1u
Score: 1-1


Chicago and over.
Montreal game was a draw, so I got a little profit from my combo of small bets.


Montreal continues to be crazy team, with 6, 7, 8 and 5 goal games this season. They were the team with 14 consecutive overs last season, by far the longest streak. As always one team strikes out and continue to do it through the season. So if you like long shots, or betting their over, it's good idea to split your bet and put smaller part on >3 or 3.5 or 4 if you have those markets.
Don't want to waste time on today's games, there are some games tomorrow too.

 

[ExeR]

Columbus @ LA:
Another episode of +1 goal at great price. With Columbus being much stronger than Vancouver on the road historically, this should be a no brainer, but not so fast. LA is 8wins 2returns 7 losses against -1 goal at home last season, and 3-1-3 this year. So it's 11-10 combined. Not the team you want to try your luck, especially with odds lower than even money. There can two arguments here. West teams road play was much weaker last season, and they made most of LA guests, since they are from West themselves. So with Portland/Colorado/Vancouver with 10-13 road losses in 17 games and -15 goal difference being frequent guests at LA, their record shouldn't look so strong. Also Columbus is in upper half of road teams, so they are stronger than average team in the league. Their record with +1 goal on the road proves it. They were 8 wins 6 returns 3 losses last year, and they are 5-3-1 this year. Combined 13-4 record.
With this record and "overvalued" LA record, seems like statistically Columbus have an edge. Not the team that lose by a lot, can score on the road, can take points on the road. Still, to me it's all about the hosts. It's home team that usually dominate and dictate the game. And playing LA won't be the same, as winning @Chivas,DC,Toronto. So with that in mind, LA shouldn't be underestimated in what they can do on the field.Ofcourse in terms of odds LA is not the side to back, but they are capable of achieving bad result for bet on Columbus.
Other football reasons are also not very inviting. LA has been very good at home, while struggling mightily on the road. But at home they had sensational defence and they beat down couple of tough teams like SKC and Seattle. Columbus is coming off a very weak month of June, where they had only bright spot in home win against Montreal. Other than that their play was pretty bad.
I guess the situation is a conflict of numbers vs football reasons. You don't want to play against one of the strongest teams in their place, where they have been spectacular. But odds and stats say that even with home team being capable, whole picture giving guest team great value. Here's the info, pick the one side you like. I will probably stay away. After tough road loss to Dallas, La came home and thrashed SKC. After tough loss @ NY they come home to trash Seattle. Now they are coming home after tough loss @ SJ.
Sick move to play road Vancouver and stay away from Columbus, but it somehow seems right to me...

Chivas @ Dallas:
Even though Dallas is "supposed" to slow down a little at home, Chivas might not be the team to do it. They have a 5 win "limit" and Chivas should totally be in W category for them. Chivas has always been good for surprises on the road, but not this season it seems. There is much higher "limit" of being bad on the road, so Chivas can end up among worst at season's end. They are 1-1-5 right now, and that's thanks to their March run. All their road games after their run is over are lost, 5 straight and add one in a cup against lower team too. They are playing tougher last couple of games, but they are also rebuilding in the process, waiving players etc. So it's not a sign they will get better. And in my opinion, all these makes playing Dallas win quite profitable. Yeah it's 1.43, heavy chalk but there are no signs that any other outcome will happen often enough. Chasing for 2+ goals might not be a good idea, so the only options are Dallas win, -0.75 and -1. And Dallas odds have been affected a little by their last results. So now to why bigger handicaps are dangerous.
Dallas is playing low scoring games at home. They don't score bunch, but they play very good defence. Chivas last trips to such places didn't end well (Portland 3-0, SKC 4-0,Colorado 2-0). So it's completely different story to draw 2-2 with stronger team on the road and win Chivas at home. First translates well into second, but not the other way around. So last results of Dallas are no indication to be scared for their potential display on the field. But big win for Dallas is still questionable, not the best team for it.
Their profile also leaves a question about total, that is set high. It's holiday+Chivas and all, but still one that could be a trap. Chivas seems to play tighter last couple of games, don't waste their stamina on useless pressure. And with Dallas playing pretty straight forward offence, there will be no trick to defend it. With some luck they can protect themselves from 2-3 goals. Scoring is a big problem for them, especially vs good defence and with no posession. If it wasn't a great month for overs and Chivas involved I would bite on it, but have to stay away. Main thing is that this total is a tricky one, and not as obvious as odds might suggest and I won't recommend trying over.

NYRB @ Colorado:
Colorado has been a "no touch" team for me and for good reason. I saved some losses because from the beggining of season I thought this team should not be good and most of times looked for opportunities to bet against them. So with that in mind and their great record on Independence Day I should stay away again, but hell no.
This is the rare opportunity to take NY at great odds. With them at almost full strength roster wise it's a great chance to take on of the strongest road teams at great price. If you want to take someone to beat all those altitude/big home crowd/historic records this should be a good road team. I like NY for that role so to other reasons:
Colorado is finally cooling off and law of averages striking hard. I haven't trusted myself and haven't started fading them, but last month was pretty horrible for them. Even the last win @ Montreal was not a gain for me, it was a game where they allowed 3 again. If not for great execution and always capable of failing Montreal defence they won't pull it off. Let's not forget cup game too. They have 3 home game stretch to fix it, but this will be their hardest challenge to do it, especially with little struggle going on. And when I look at their games vs top teams, even at home they haven't been impressive. Despite win @ Montreal and win vs slow start RSL, they haven't had much success:
Away lose Dallas, away lose LA, home draw with Portland, home lose to Seattle, away draw Houston, home draw Dallas, away lose Portland.
So they can certainly be outplayed even at home, and NY on their best game is capable to do it. And odds don't need NY to win actually, draw will be good. But can NY do it?
NY was not good either in their last games, but this team really played worse without their leaders. With Henry restin, Cahill on int. duty and other stuff that involves roster changing they played two times worse, than they do at full strength. They had some fails on the road, but you take chances with either team, so you have to assume some thing as not important. Colorado not playing their under game and being in bad form seems like much more of a drag to be winner of the game, than expecting NY to play decent road game and not lose. So +0.25 on NY is the play I like. Overs has been hitting crazy between these two, so might be worth a shot, especially at 2+ on over 2.5. Colorado is allowing 2 every game, and NY has never been a defensive force on the road. Have to think about best play in this but leans and info are done.

 

[ExeR]

SKC @ Chicago:
It's quite scary to bet against Chicago these days. But that's why it's good.
Main reason is that regularly you won't find odds being so good on SKC. I know they are a little shy in terms of results this season. But main portion of it is weak perfomance at home, and in general it's underachievment for a good team. On the road they are still one of the best teams and keep their trademark style of play. Not like there's no stay away signals, but there's no reason for SKC not to have a great game either.
Chicago is another reason. Since Magee came they have been producting results non stop. First of all, this is hard to keep up. Magee was playing great in LA too and he's obvious improvement to one of the weakest areas of Chicago's play (offence). But there's still 10 other players in their team, and they haven't changed overnight. They've been winning games on offence, so their shaky defence is invisible to many. They allow to score very often, and it's been consistent weakness whole season. And in midfield, they have weaker line up than opponents almost every game they play. These things are ignored/hidden behind their great offence of late, but they'll be playing against best defensive road team. Stopping Chicago's offence, winning midfield and putting their defence under serious pressure is very doable for SKC. So seing Chicago as favourite (decent priced, but still) is a hard pill to swallow. Plus Chicago is the one team here which has major abscences.
SKC has all the tools to stop Chicago's run, and Chicago's last game against strong road team Portland was a great example. Portland was cruising for an easy 2-0 victory, but Chicago was able to pull off a draw in last minutes. I expect to see same kind of game.
Pinnacle ain't working for me right now, so I use prices from other books. I see:
SKC +0.25 @ 1.73 5Dimes 1u
Draws can't be ignored here, so odds are pretty enough to cash from draws.
Will also put a smaller bet on SKC win @2.92.

 

[ExeR]

SKC +0.25 @ 1.73 1u
SKC win @2.92
Score: 2-1