Mls 2013

[ExeR]

Wow, all road teams I liked have great odds. Not looking at Pinnacle btw, so may be need to adjust to what they offer. Need to think about it more, but early draft will look like this:
Seattle pk 2.04
Columbus pk 2.34
Phila +0.5 1.83
Portland +1 1.81
Houston is road favourite, so I don't like that bookies think the same. It may not be true, so betting it on small odds doesn't make any sense.
Vancouver is +1 for 1.56 against Dallas. But doesn't matter how I feel about teams, betting weak road performers against team that should be on 5 win streak at this odds is not too good.
NYRB is heavy favourite vs NER, may be I over react after what happened today, but now they definately have some fatigue and no guy to shoot it from midfield. All this adds up for a very tough matchup at 1.72 odds to win.
RSL is another strong favourite to win against Chivas at home. Worst odds on over in this one, so it's expected to be crazy.
SKC @ LA have the worst odds on under and that's interesting to me. Can't imagine this game to go this way. Over 2 at 1.735 is safe option but it's a must bet for me. Maybe I will go with something more risky, but really like this opportunity.

 

[rolltide]

road teams are rolling in mls this year

 

[ExeR]

SEATTLE -0.25 AT ODDS 2.25 Bet365
Already wrote why. If Seattle finaly scores and it will be first goal, Colorado will be in big trouble. Don't think they have enough random goals to start the game left in them, while Seattle must run out of misses too. So if both things happen in this game, it will be great. I just can't leave them, because: expect them to dominate and win - bet them to win - they dominate and play to win - miss miss miss miss... Can't control that last part and don't chase them based on previous results, so have to stick with Sounders, if they are better side. Don't see the reason behind run in Colorado. Even in last 3 games (saw them all) where they earned points it was:
Portland came back, and if they weren't giving away goals early at the time it would be easy win for them. Timbers dominated second half in away game.
RSL at middle of their struggle also dominated 2nd half and were unlucky with ref (they had like 2-3 penalties that weren't called).
Chivas had worst game of the season, still took them missed penalty not to draw. But to be fair Colordo had many more chances to score too. So to me it doesn't make them really better than they were at season's start (0w 3l 1d). It's when they weren't able to score first.
Who knows, maybe I'm just a hater.Columbus Crew Handicap 0 and +0.5 for Game 1.917 Pinnacle
Not really sure enough to bet Columbus to win, but really like them not to lose here. Especially with Chicago being favourite. They won the game against NYRB playing number 2 at home and capitalizing on mistakes, in others they were just dominated badly. This style of play can't make them favourite against any decent team. Columbus have been playing really well, they already achieved 2 road victories, and played close game against strong MTL team. Crew have the best stats in shots on goal, they are very effective with their shots in general. They scored in every game this season, and with Chicago's weak defence and tendency to give away control of the game, they won't have problems scoring in this game too. I don't see Chicago winning here, or atleast often enough to be anywhere near the odds.
PORTLAND +1 AT ODDS 1.74 Pinnacle
You should look for better odds, some of smaller bookies have this at much better price. I bet at 1.81 but will count at Pinnacle odds. Already gave a lot of resons for this one. But you can even ignore Portland here I think. They don't have best road history, but SJ odds are just insane. They are like LA teams in baseball and basketball. Can lose 5 in a row, still 1.5 to win on next game. This may not be true because it's not connected to big market's volume of bets, but it's a tendency. Odds alone are good for me to fade SJ and what you wrote about efficiency is good reason too. They lack it (bad pass accuracy %, shots on goal %), so with possession advantage I mentioned before, they won't find more chances to overcome their inefficency. You can doubt Portland for tons of reasons, but at least they have +1 goal for a very good price.


Not sure about Phila bet, cause I think it's better to bet draw and win seperately, with different sized bets. Main part on draw, and win is only make it even. Or maybe just bet draw. I don't know really, but betting +0.5 is not optimal.

LA Galaxy/Sporting Kansas City Total Over 2 for Game 1.735 Pinnacle
SKC @ LA have the worst odds on under and that's interesting to me. Can't imagine this game to go this way. LA was scoreless for 2 straight games, so before game with SKC they can only have 1 objective - get their offence going in this game. They have no business playing defence first game agains SKC, so they will make wheels spin for the over. SKC can be very happy with 4 points in these two games, so can't really expect them to go all out for W here. But little of pride/ego, talent of their attack and emotions of the game, can force them to do good things for over too. They let emotions get the best of NYRB today, but who knows what will happen next game. There are always reasons for penalties and bookings in this type of games, so we can expect extra help from ref.

I really like Houston @ Toronto to stay under. Don't really want to play Houston as road favourite, so if I doubt them, I suggest that it would be hard for them to suddenly be dominant road team and win. Add thoughts about Toronto's offence, and the way this totally "under" type team have been getting so many overs, and it's really likely this will be and under type game. May be I'm overestimating Toronto's defence, but Houston haven't really shown their offensive power in away games. Game @ Dallas (2:3) was a crazy one and fluke, and goals they scored were very situational. Toronto had big luck in last 2 home games, where they allowed away teams to come and take lead, but then they came back and scored their own goals on 3-4 shots on goal. So this one feels like it should be normal, with no confidence and dominance on offence from any side.

The premoderation is good, but it really sucks for me, I'm like day later with all my posts at this forum. Hopefully I wil break the barier soon, or is it always active? Hope not.

 

[ExeR]

MY leans for other games:
Sides: Dallas NYRB RSL to win at home. Like Houston not to lose at Toronto, but odds are not too good. Phila +0.5
Totals: Under in Hou-Tor game. Over in DC-Phila.

 

[ExeR]

Leans:
Dallas W
NYRB W
RSL W
Under in Hou-Tor game W
Bets:
SEATTLE -0.25 AT ODDS 2.25 Bet365 W
Columbus Crew Handicap 0 and +0.5 for Game 1.917 Pinnacle L
LA Galaxy/Sporting Kansas City Total Over 2 for Game 1.735 Pinnacle P
Portland +1 left for tomorrow.
Tired of complaining about luck, but it's getting unreal to watch it time and time again. Nobody to blame for not betting leans I guess.

 

[ExeR]

Leans:
Dallas W
NYRB W
RSL W
Phila +0.5 W
Under in Hou-Tor game W
Over in DC-Phila W
6-0 in leans. Not counting Houston, because it would be a push, and they didn't deserved it anyway. So did well to stay away from it, but it can't dismiss it, since wrote about it multiple times.
Bets:
Sporting Kansas City Handicap 0 and +0.5 for Game 1.877 W
SEATTLE -0.25 AT ODDS 2.25 Bet365 W
Columbus Crew Handicap 0 and +0.5 for Game 1.917 Pinnacle L
LA Galaxy/Sporting Kansas City Total Over 2 for Game 1.735 Pinnacle P
PORTLAND +1 AT ODDS 1.74 Pinnacle W
Already counted midweek win for SKC, so weekend ended 2-1-1 with almost 1u profit. Great week overall, but little shy in results/right predictions. I don't know why I didn't pull the plug on Phila+0.5 and Hou/Tor under, even did the writeups. I guess not enough confidence (which is a bad thing) cost me there. Still, guessed all road point takers, but decided not to follow home winners.
Games:
Was watching Houston game, trying to find out why they are completely different team on the road. It's great to watch games in my opinion, just because of the commentators. Most of them don't think like bettors (we are mostly stat heads or opinion based), so they mention many interesting details. Weather, team tendencies, player tendencies, coaching philosophies. As example Toronto. They said their coach is killing them on physical training. Not really what this team needs in my opinion, but still. How they use that? They use pressing and rely on their physical superiority to shut teams like Houston down. Normally you can't press for whole game, you get tired, crafty passing teams will deal with it well e.t.c. But with Houston it worked perfectly, especially in cold weather. Again I didn't check out the weather. Don't know if it's possible because I make my bets early in the week, 2-3-4 days before games. But playing in cold weather is a factor. So in this weather, Houston was uncomfortable and in a hurry. That's their biggest problem on the road. They rush their passes and don't deal with pressing like they should. They got squizzed out of possesion and comfort zone in Portland, same happened here. Both times they had nothing to show on offence and couldn't deal with pressing. And that's what killing them on the road. Toronto had clear stamina advantage, and set pieces were the key for Houston's comeback. They had time to breath and bring numbers into the box. Other than that and first 10 minutes, they had no offence at all. So it's one thing Toronto has going for them, but still don't like their offence. And their next game against rested NYRB will be real test for them. NY deal with pressing very well and I don't believe it will work near as well as it did against Dynamo.
Also there are games for CanadaChmp midweek, so it will be fatigue spot for Toronto. So my first opinion is that:
Toronto < NYRB.
Columbus with some weak perfomance. Once again a good example of pressing giving results. Chicago produced their offence just from taking the ball in danger areas and running from standing defence. This was complete domination and I really thought that was impossible. Crew wasn't ready in any meaning of the word, and there was only 1 way to win this, is to luck out. It didn't happen, and Chicago got their goal. This was bad bet, but when I look back I can't see any way of knowing it. Chicago can really make a living of abusing mistakes and weak defence from their opponents, but they will play MTL (also with mid week game) and it will be interesting to see what can they do there. MTL is not the team to control the game, but they will give real test to Chicago's attack, that seems to be clicking. As for Columbus, I bet them 3 straight times to get at least 4 points. They lost all bets and got 2 points. I don't think I overestimated them (because I bet against them too), so they should really start catching up (like Seattle). So with home game against DC it will be good spot for them to come out strong and make fans forget this weak perfomance.
Columbus>DC
LA-SKC was push, but it should've been over in this game earlier than in Phily-DC game (which took 18 minutes). Anyway, very glad with that one, odds for this game were completely wrong. SKC confirmed that they are proud team, they tried to play equal game and attack as much as hosts. Ofcourse with fatigue and great play from LA they allowed many dangerous counter attacks which led to their loss. They got burned on pretty much the same thing, that allowed them to win NYRB. Not rested, difficult matchup, but here we go. They have 3 game home stand, so won't worry for them or their morale. They are not a team that is looking for a draw before the game starts, so they won't change their attitude or their game style. Will take a close look into their matchup against Portland, but definately see them winning that game.
As for Galaxy, they bounced back nicely, and look good. You can also see that they are work in progress, so hopefully they will get on track soon. They don't usually have good odds, but they have road game heavy schedule in front of them. They can win on the road, so if they have great stretch there will be nice odds for them in those road games. Next is against RSL, and RSL doesn't look very confident. Can be a good game for LA to build on this week's success.
Seattle finaly won, but it's been coming for a long time. And now they have no game week, so later with them.
Portland couldn't hold on to win, but it was nice to see the thing I found about possession working. They had lead whole game, something like 55+%, but that stretch in the end, where they tried to hold on to the lead, evened it out. It's working for them this season, and ofcourse they will keep playing like that. They're also a team that use pressing successfully. They get the ball and then use control to establish offence and limit their opponents. There is a doubt about importance of that, because they still end up with less shot on goals and moments. But it's been constant for them and when you watch them play you see where it's coming from. This is how they like to play. It can be their weakness against stronger squads who can exploit that, or it can be their strength when they play less effective teams like SJ. As for SJ, it's easier for me to speak now, because I doubted them long time ago and they haven't show anything to prove me wrong, but I still see that a lot of people liking their chances. Who am I to talk with my "love" to Seattle and now Columbus, but I don't think SJ is the side to back. They are getting trash odds, and their game stays pretty much the same. Their passing %, effectivness of their attack, all the things I mentioned last week stayed the same. I don't want to present them like a bad team in general, because it can all change with couple of lucky bounces. But odds are the key for me. They play Portland, and get worse odds than Seattle playing NER or something like that. So combination of odds and their form leaves no choice, but to fade them. They have a road game against Chivas next time, so really curious to see, what odds they will have. Good spot to win for them, but my guess is that they will have worst away odds of weekend.
Phila is playing really well. This style is best for them. They can't rely on their defence, so they go out and score. Hopefully McInerney's great form will keep them doing that. They will play some good teams soon, but it will be at home. So later with those troubles. They get great odds and are undervalued a lot. Their next game will be against NER, so it's a good opportunity for them to keep going. Odds will suffer ofcourse, because everybody knows now, that NER is pretty much the weakest team in the league. Hopefully it won't be ridiculous. Because I really like Phily in this matchup, but I don't expect this game to be easy one by any means. Worst or not, NER can really close up and show something at home, after bad road perfomance. So will be looking for some 0.25 on Phily in this one.
The only game left is rematch of Dallas-Vancouver. Haven't seen that game, will catch up during the week. In bad spot with Dallas anyway, my confidence in them can come right when they might slow down a little. They have good schedule, but it's hard to win so many in a row. Time to stop doubting them and keep it one game at a time
BOL this week!

 

[ExeR]

NYRB @ Toronto:
Odds are not too good, but have to go with this. NYRB heating up, and I don't see them having problems while playing weaker teams. They had two losses in last 5 games, but their form was good during this stretch. Toronto is yet to lose at home, but I think it's the best situation for this to happen. They lucked out against some quality sides before, and they may need some heroics in this too. I don't think they will have success in pressing. NY have nice control and they will play it upfront, where they have very dangerous and smart players, who can create something of one on one. This won't allow Toronto to create chances from nothing, and it will really hurt their offence. So there is no real plan for TFC, while NY will probably have this game under control. They won't have ton of chances, so how well they use them will be the key. But with their offence in great shape it will up to them to win this game. So I expect NY to win this one.
New York Red Bulls 1X2 for Game 2.330 Pinnacle
Chicago @ Montreal:
Might not seem like a good spot on first look. Montreal with close game against Crew and lost midweek at Toronto. And Chicago seems to be playing real well, getting 2 W in last 3, and looking pretty well @ Houston. But let's take a 2nd look. Chicago is yet to show anything on the road. Their wins were really unconvincing. They had Columbus playing their worst game of the season, NY with some sloppy mistakes on D. At Houston they looked well, but well as and underdog. Best they could hope for was a draw. And if you don't trust me, trust their owner, who see through the fog and wants some new signings, because his team had a bad start. On the other hand we have Montreal team, that's probably worst matchup for current Fire team. And their home game was very solid all season long. Only draw against Columbus was unlucky for them. They got robbed of a good goal and they were better, not statistically, but in terms of quality. They played Toronto with reserves, so they are really focused on getting things done at MLS. So match preparation must be in place, and with very tough schedule in front of them, this must be the game to win.
Montreal Impact 1X2 for Game 2.020 Pinnacle
SJ@Chivas:
I see 2 opportunities in this one. SJ finally got some good odds, so with results coming some time soon and odds improving, their value really growing. But main thing in this one is how ugly things are for Chivas. After miracle start, they are in total mess right now. Injuries+suspensions+uncertainty is a deadly combination for this team. They don't have depth, they showed how bad they play when they have no morale. They haven't scored in forever, don't know who will be starting and don't talk to their coach. Some nice chemistry they have going on. Their D was never very scary and now they can't score or even create chances. This alone is good to fade them, and with SJ so desperate to get a W it's a really good opportunity. Last week Seattle was in much worse situation and got their W, so SJ in this one looks even better and hopefully will get things done.
San Jose Earthquakes 1X2 for Game 2.550 Pinnacle
Dallas@Vancouver:
Another fade spot for me. Vancouver played midweek against non-MLS Edmonton. They managed emotional comeback win and lots of starters logged 90 minutes. Their matchup against Dallas is an uphill battle for them, so with fatigue and emotional game, they can't be favourites. Home/Road records of this season for this matchup don't look very convincing, but Vancouver never had been really dominant home team (league average is 9 wins, they had 8 last season). With less than 50% home wins and Dallas being one of the best teams at the moment, it's reall tough to see any reason to back Vancouver at given odds. Not really sure to bet Dallas to win, because it's hard to win so many games in a row, but their pk odds look great and that's what I suggest to take.
FC Dallas Handicap pk for Game 1.990 Pinnacle
DC @ Columbus:
With worst game of their season behind them, Columbus will be looking to get W in this game. There is doubt ofcourse of how they will bounce back, but they played well consistently this season. So no reason to believe that Columbus won't show up.
As for DC things are not looking so well. First, their streak: they are on a 4 game losing streak and those long losing streak trends are very consistent. Teams with 4 losses lost again in 8 of 16 in 2011 season, and 6 of 7 in 2012 season. It's 50% and 86%. Add to this Columbus home form. They went 9-3 and 11-3 in last 2 seasons, and can be considered among 5 best home teams in the league. So it comes down to this: struggling team on a long losing streak playing against motivated hosts, who happened to be one of the scariest home sides in the league. Will be very hard for DC to take points in this one.
Columbus Crew 1X2 for Game 1.971 Pinnacle
Galaxy with Donovan and Keane uncertain, so will skip that one probably.

 

[ExeR]

League stats:
Played matches: 68 out of 323 - 21.1% completed
Home wins: 50.0%
Draws: 27.9%
Away wins: 22.1%
Over 1.5 goals: 66.2%
Over 2.5 goals: 36.8%
Over 3.5 goals: 17.6%


Home wins stay around 50%, so same story as last year.
As for O/U can see that betting over is -money for now, because this year was a 2goal show with 30% of games finished with exactly 2 goals. I checked odds*% combinations and you would collect more while betting over 1.5 at 1.3-1.4 odds than you would on sweet 2+ odds on over 2.5. It's general ofcourse but still something to think about.
So, with under2.5 hitting at ~63% and being +money it will be logical to look not only for home winners, but under games too. It can even be more profitable than home winners.
Combining two of them for max profit should be correct score markets, with 1-0 2-0 home wins. Odds for this are in 8 to 11 range, and it hits very well: (1-0) 19%, (2-0) 10%. Seems like a very good angle which is cashmoney just by blind betting. But I only have data on these for this season, not really equipped to backtest previous ones automatically (maybe will do it later). I don't prefer high variance bets, but it's something to keep an eye on or maybe even try it, with smaller sized bets.

 

[SunDodger]

Suprised to see you on San Jose today, ExeR.

I'm confused by your 1x2 for game bets. Are those three 2-team parlays? 1st half & 2nd half parlays? Or something else?

 

[ExeR]

No, it's copypaste from Pinnacle. It's team to win. Sry for this confusion, always forget that not only odds differ in bookies and continents.
As for SJ, I don't hate them or something, they just had terrible odds. This week it's better, and I fade their opponents.

 

[SunDodger]

So these are just the three-way odds, or -1/2 goal at + money. Got it.



Good luck on the rest of your plays.

 

[ExeR]

Not the bets, just for tracking purposes:
Columbus-DC correct score odds: (1-0) 7; (2-0) 8.5
SKC-Portland correct score odds: (1-0) 6.5; (2-0) 8.1
Hou-Colorado correct score odds: (1-0) 8; (2-0) 8.6
Wasn't able to backtest everything in time, so will just watch what happen this week.

 

[ExeR]

Week results

Bets:
New York Red Bulls 1X2 for Game 2.330 Pinnacle W (2-1)
Montreal Impact 1X2 for Game 2.020 Pinnacle W (2-0)
San Jose Earthquakes 1X2 for Game 2.550 Pinnacle L (2-2)
FC Dallas Handicap pk for Game 1.990 Pinnacle Void (2-2)
Columbus Crew 1X2 for Game 1.971 Pinnacle W (3-0)
Another good week, another 3-1-1 for 2+ unit return.
Was really lucky with Dallas bet, because they should've lost this game by at least 2-3 goals. But then again, wouldn't mind changing that return for SJ win. Could be 4-1 with much better profit. But it is what it is.
Main success this week came from bets I decided not to make. Philadelphia, SKC, Houston all failed to achieve result, while only LA pull it off. So thoughts on that:
Made a little mistake with LA, because I just ignored everything else when saw that Donovan+Keane will miss the game. But RSL poor form + odds could very well be the reason to try pk or +something on LA.
Won't lie that I knew Houston and SKC would end up with this results, but was matter of odds for me. Just as described before, looked at it in terms of (type of game)/odds. Crew and Montreal had much better odds, and they won their games in one half. So why take low odds tougher match up games. Ain't happy with Portland win, this will be a big hit for their value. They play next game at home against NER, so you can imagine what trash odds they will get for this great opportunity. Colorado with 8 starters injured, still don't lose. Can't understand them.
Philadelphia game could end up completely different if they scored on their chacnes, but consistency is a big "?" for this team. No intensity, no desire to fight in game like this, where they could easily take points. A very common pattern for many road teams. Where Phily have consistency, is their defence. Every game they show their level and allow 2 goals. If you exclude their first meeting against NER, they allowed goal in every game, and it was at least 2 really (was lucky not to get 3 against Columbus, allowed 1 to Toronto's 1 man offence). Mentioned it long time ago, and now it's confirmed multiple times. It will be a long day for them against Seattle in next game.
Correct score:
Hopefully will have all data necessary when the odds will be available. This week was crazy, but still Montreal would cash in (2-0) correct score at 11+ odds. This would cover for all other losses: 1-0 in MTL game, and 1-0/2-0 in 3 others I posted. If you put same sized bets, it would be 11-8= 3+ units profit. Ofcourse you can't bet same size as normal bets, but still looks good. Will write about it more midweek.
Next week:
Probably won't touch Canadian championship, have no idea what coaches gonna do. From what I've seen in first games, Vancouver is serious about getting to next round so they may gamble again and make sure they advance. They play well at home and will probably get things done. As for Montreal, they won't have good chance to overcome 0-2 even if they decide to gamble. Whic I don't think they will. So with Toronto focused on this cup, they will probably advance.
Portland have midweek game against NER. This could've been great, but Portland won and now bad odds can destroy whole thing. It's a great matchup, with NER giving away possession to anybody, so Portland will have their life line. This won't be an easy game for Portland to win because Revolution will probably go 10 man defence again and there will be some fatigue and less emotion. This usually drive odds up and make people doubt things and look for let down spots. But it will be one sided and that's main thing for me. Even when Seattle failde to score and lost bet is same kind of situation, I was thinking 1.75+ odds were a great deal for such one sided game. So:
Portland > NER (if odds are 1.75 or better).
For weekend:
NYRB @ Columbus: Columbus is very fortunate with their schedule, but they are starting to show some inconsistency. They haven't played anybody as dangerous as NY. I know that NY is bookie favourite and that they still allow some stupid goals, but they are capable to play away game like it's their home. All this will probably put Crew into situation, where they have to play game of chances. And that's what's where NY (Henry Cahill especially) wants them. My guess is that odds won't present much value. I won't be looking to bet Crew in this one, so I guess many people will like the odds that they will get. I'll hope for Crew home record to kick in and make odds on NY inviting. Really think that Columbus will lose points often in this matchup.
Seattle @ Philadelphia: Seattle is the worst matchup for Philadelphia. They created ton of chacnes, and this will be a big problem for Phily's weak defence. Sounders were very good in defence, especially against counter attacks. And this is what Union will be looking for. So no real opportunities for Phily in this one. If Seattle starts converting their chacnes a little bit better this can be game where all is decided in 1 half.
Seattle > Philadelphia
Montreal @ SJ: Have to wait for odds and CanadaChmp results before thinking this through.
Toronto @ Colorado: Have to wait for odds and CanadaChmp results before thinking this through.
Vancouver @ RSL: Have to wait for odds and CanadaChmp results before thinking this through. But there can be some sweet odds on Vancouver in this one. They still can't play on the road, but may be hope that they will break through will be worth it.
Chivas @ SKC: Odds will be bad, but don't see Chivas doing anything here. Very weak defence, poor play. SKC will be angry and motivated.
SKC > Chivas
Houston @ LA: Little chance, but maybe Houston will be overvalued. No chance for them in this one the way the play on the road.
LA > Houston (at decent odds)

 

[ExeR]

Haven't connected all data into the web of understanding, but here are some food for thought numbers and averages:
Will start with one thing that's already lost as opportunity. There's a guy on another forum, who did kind of a chase for multiple years. Idea is simple, to bet home team to win 1-0. As soon as team win, it's crossed out. Not really sure if there was a filter, but he was successfull with it for couple of years in English PL. I'm not a fan of any blind betting or not filtered systems, but there was opportunity to finish it earlier. There would be a moment of 12 winners and 3 pending (some struggling team who can't win for example) and this would be it for him.
If we take this little observation of (1-0) (2-0) home wins I mentioned before, and would do the same thing, here's what it would look like:
In 2011 there would be 1 loss, DC haven't won with this scores at all. Seattle had just 1 win, but it happened on 12th game of the season (even less than 12 home game) so it would be crossed quite early. All others went for 2 or more scores like that. So it's clear that with 17vs1 situation, at some point of the season there would be massive profit, and even if you go till the end I don't think that you will get anywhere near -money. Plus you can continue with teams and not cross them out.
In 2012 there would be no losses, with just two teams finishing once with that score. SJ did because it played some 5-3 kind of games, and Toronto had just 3 home wins, so 1 of 3 not bad. Again you can imagine what can happen with no losses and continued series.
This year would've been terrific, great start for those scores. With 8-9 games into season (so on average 4-5 home where we actually would bet) there are just 5 teams left with no result. NY with 4 home games, Seattle 3, Columbus 3, Chivas 5, Toronto 5 (20 games). If we take 8 odds on average, which are less than what it would be, but compensate for increasing size of bets in series, and set 1u bet for every game, there would be:
14winsx8units-20lossesx1unit= 92units of profit with no big amounts risked. Not crossing teams out would be even better, with Dallas striking 4 times already. There are a better ways to get max from this ideas, but even with no filtering or rethinking applied, this still looks fantastic.
I don't really know if you can continue it in some kind of way from this point. Can be bad idea because % of this scores is very high at the moment. 60% of home wins are (1-0) or (2-0). In 2011 average was 41%, in 2012 36%. So it may drop significantly. Will stop with that "system" thought, afraid to get entangled.

Connection between home wins and home win scores:
Betting correct scores seems to be better, than just betting wins. We have league with 40% of home wins being (1-0) (2-0), so if you combine them for odds of 8 (my estimate), and take home win odds average as 2 (my estimate), you would have a very big drop in expected value, more than 2 times. So on paper, everytime you like team to win you should be betting them on exact score. But it can turn out bad, because they can win 1-0 against strong opponents, where you wouldn't want to bet them in a first place. So if you have team playing DC and Galaxy, you bet win against DC and skip against Galaxy. It would be 1 win for you. If you use what I suggest, it would be lose against DC (because score is 3-1) and skip against Galaxy (where your team surprisingly win 1-0). So it will force you to get into this kind of situations, or bet blindly against anybody. Blind betting is not my thing really, and here's another reason why it's not suitable:
% of home wins with score 1-0 2-0:
Already mentioned it being around 40% historically, and 60% this year. So here's where blind betting won't work. Toronto has 50% of their wins with that scores, Sporting KC 40+%. So they are pretty equal in this and equal in number of home games they play (17). But number of their wins is very different. SKC had 19 in 2 seasons, while Toronto with only 8. So it's twice the difference, pluse you get opportunity to cash multiple times with SKC. Toronto had just 3 wins last season, and just 1 won with right score. I don't believe that odds will differ that much and Toronto will catch up there. So if we are in situation like we have now, who do you choose. SKC is overachieving with 2 scores in 2 home wins, while Toronto is 0 for 1. So if 50% will stay blind betting suggest we take Toronto, or maybe chase it till they get win. But here's what will probably happen:
SKC won 2 times in 4 home games. They will probably get 10 wins so they will go 8 wins 5 no wins the rest of the way. Toronto won 1 time in 5 home games. They will probably get 4 wins. So they will go 3 wins 9 no wins the rest of the way.
So if you choose Toronto, you will not only have to guess where they win (if it's not win, it doesn't matter if you took team to win or team to win at score), but also have very few chances to capitalize. Little fluke, and Toronto won't win 1 game this season with scores needed. If they win against somebody strong, it's gonna be 1/3 of your chances wasted. While with SKC, you can just bet them against weaker teams, and catch most (4 or 5) of those wins. In 4-5 tries you will definately capitalize and make handicapping meet date research to end up with more profit, than just betting SKC to win everytime. Plus this way you can correlate what you do to goals scored/allowed stats, where Toronto is nowhere near SKC. So you will have some extra something to trigger the bet.
So that's the most of it for now, and if you haven't read or understand this whole mess, here's what's important.
What to do possibilities:
1) Go on with that "kind of chase" system, to get 1-0 2-0 score from teams that haven't achieved it this season plus continue with sorted teams who already did. What we have here is:
NYRB with 5 of 8 home wins and 5 of 11 home wins in previous years. This season sitting at 0 of 2.
Columbus with 3 of 9 and 4 of 11 before, 0 of 1 now.
Seattle with 1 of 9 and 5 of 11 before, 0 of 0 now.
Toronto 3 of 5 and 1 of 3 before, 0 of 1 now.
Chivas 2 of 5 and 2 of 4 before, 0 of 2 now.
NYRB Columbus are definately worth a risk, just historically and they win a lot. Seattle is also nice option (with little fluke in 2011), but their defence will keep many teams with 0 scored and I'm sure they'll win a lot.
Toronto and Chivas not good. You see most of their wins being with needed score, but they don't win. Both won 3 times at home last year, what if they repeat this kind of perfomance.
Won't bother with selected teams to go on with, because it will probably be part of my thinking process from now on, but it's up for discussion. I already wrote on option with SKC. Galaxy is great too, already with 2 out of 3 and been at 50% historically. They win 10+, so many more chances to come for them.
2) Do what I tried to did last week. Balance of home winners and over/under changes from day to day, but we take it as a basis. Find out home winners, compare it to where you think under will hit, and bet this game for correct score.
Pros: You don't have to chase or blind bet. You just combine data research with your own capping, to increase risk, but more than make up for it with expected value. You won't have your judgement clouded by anything. There won't be "I like Galaxy to win at Columbus, but I have this Columbus to win thing going on, so I won't bet LA and stick to the chase".
Cons: You will miss many if not the most games where value is made for correct score. NER won Phily, and everybody loved Phily and thought NER will never win again. And if you miss chances like that, maybe there's no need to do this thing at all. It's possible you will get extra losses on 2-1 3-1 3-0 wins, and won't look for some bad teams like NER to cash their wins.
To me, pros>cons, because you don't lose much on bets like these (odds 8+), and you don't need to play roulette and guess when will Chivas not allow opponents to score. Much easier done with teams like SKC, Seattle, which you will pick more often than Chivas. So you will take a little risk only when you are betting this game anyway. And this results in:
3) Combine. It's what I did in the NBA. You see the spread you like. You bet main part on it, and small part on 3 additional points added for much higher odds. Make it so that you risk 1u total, and if you lose your risky bet, but win main bet, you'll still be in profit. So example is:
Houston @ LA. Odds on LA win is 2. I think LA will win, so I go on and bet 0.8u on LA win at odds 2. 0.2 will be left for correct scores, because it's possible Houston won't show up again and end up with 0 scored. While LA is always good for these 1-0 2-0 wins. So I bet this small part on correct scores. Even if LA will win 3-1, I will still have profit and won't feel like I tried some stupid correct score to not cash on what I knew would be a winner. I found it to be very good method to not get mad at yourself on wasted opportunities, yet at the same time take some risk where you think it will payoff in a long run. I think to all who read this whole thing, at least this 3rd option should be considered.
I like all these options and getting them together into some mix that will maximise profit is yet to be done.

 

[ExeR]

Portland to win at odds 1.8 Bet365
Same price everywhere, but Pinnacle have it at -0.75, no ML yet. So I will take it as originally planned and won't wait for them, even if they will have better odds.

 

[ExeR]

Took a 2nd look on Canadian Championship.
Toronto have problems with roster, they will be forced to start somebody they don't necessarily want to. It's important, because they could take defencive approach and try to grind it out. Now I don't feel like it's gonna work. Playing guys who don't have understanding between each other, who don't have enough match practice. That can be recipe for disaster. I didn't like Montreal to win because they showed no intention in first game, but now things changed. Fans showed what they think about such attitude, so it's clear that Montreal will play to win not just because they are 0-2, but because they can't have weak effort game. So that to me dismiss all other historical and roster problems for them. All these things sums up in what should be a one sided game. Montreal is strong at home so in a game like this they will often end up as winner. Impact to win at 1.75 is the best thing to bet on this card.
Vancouver seems to have much easier spot, with away lead now at home. Odds are really low on Whitecaps, but this game can be let down for them. They have very tough schedule, and there's no way their starters and key players can play 4 games in 2 weeks. They came back in both games last week, and game against Dallas should be big dissapointment for them. They played great, but will it translate to this game is a great question. With situation being that they can lose and resting players inevitable, those odds on their win doesn't look well. Even with Edmonton being awful road team, there's just not enough risk/reward in this one. But all things mentioned make this game underish, so this is what I like in that game. What adds to this, is that all game 1 goals came from mistakes or set pieces.
Impact to win at 1.75 odds
Edmonton@Vancouver Under 2.5
Will play them at lower size personally, but won't count them in a record.

 

[ExeR]

Put up 0.1u on each of 1-0 2-0 in Portland game. They will probably win more games then they did in the past, and with their % of these scores hitting, it will be good idea to back them. Also have to love NER not to score, they are dead last in all shot stats this year. Their goalscoring efficiency is very low for 3 years in a row. So they are the perfect type of opponent to try this.
1-0 odds 7.8
2-0 odds 8.6

 

[ExeR]

Impact to win at 1.75 odds Win (6-0)
Edmonton@Vancouver Under 2.5 Win (0-2)
Finaly heating up, 8-2 (with 6-0 in leans) last couple of weeks.
Early draft for weekend card (safe/risky):
NYRB +0.25 at 1.9/NYRB win at 3.3
Better to risk in this one. Feels like it will be either very good, or very bad for any of the teams. So the riskiest bet have the best value in game like this.
Montreal pk at 3.1/Montreal +0.5 at 1.92
Sick odds on San Jose is back. Montreal's offence is on fire right now, and this can be bad news for SJ, especially if MTL will show up for away game.
Seattle pk at 2.3/Seattle win at 3.2
Great odds, will be looking forward to seeing odds on -1 or -1.5 for Sounders.
Vancouver +1 at 1.63/Vancouver +0.5 at 2.1
Rested Vancouver, two very good games for them. Really impressed by what they showed against Dallas. They should be ready to finally play good game on the road.
LA win at 1.75/ LA -1 at 2.4
Good enough odds, and will be looking to play correct scores in this one. Houston haven't shown signs of improvement, and this is the worst case scenario for them.
Colorado-Toronto game needs more attention. I can't really see that big of a difference, that's suggested by odds. But Toronto was destroyed today, and their road potential after a lose like this seems non existent. Worst odds on under in this one, so this angle is not really good. It's hard to see anything good to bet, but I'm sure there is something. So maybe after some info appear, things will get more clear.
SKC versus Chivas should be must bet, but it's hard to pull the trigger. Main thing is that it's hard to really imagine how this game will go. I really like this to go over 2.5, but then again SKC had problems with their defence last couple of game, so they will be looking for strong perfomance. And they are always good for 1-0 2-0 wins. Will wait with this one a little bit.

 

[ExeR]

Seattle -0.25 at odds 2.77 Pinnacle
Montreal +0.25 at odds 2.26 Pinnacle
NYRB win at odds 3.23 (to win 1u) Pinnacle
LA win at odds 1.813 Pinnacle

 

[rolltide]

GL ExeR...turn your private messages on (top right under 'notifications')