Done my research with overs/unders, so will combine it with my personal opinion for some plays. Will start slow, to see how it's going, so betting them at half of my usual stake.
Montreal @ SKC:
Montreal is getting no respect once again, and I will just continue to use it. This teams played at Kansas not long ago, and it was the game I lost, with Montreal looking very weak. Can't expect this to happen again and there are many reasons for that. I will start with game total. Almost everything is showing under. SKC is one of the most consistent under teams in the league (4-11 o/u this season), and they are currently on 4 game under streak. Montreal is on 4 game over streak, but those are much harder to sustain, and my backtests show it. Di Vaio has been very good at home, but he doesn't do as well in road games.
So with under in mind, spread that MTL is getting is very very good. SKC stayed at home, won cup game and have Kamara playing well, but they have some problems. They miss key players like Zusi and Besler. They haven't done that well lately, and playing against "big boys" have been their weakness. After earlier win against MTL and road victory against New York, they went on to lose to LA, lose to Portland at home, lose to Seattle at home, and drawing against Houston at home. All these things and the result of first game make me believe, that MTL will have much better chances this time. They are getting +1 at decent odds of 1.6+, and I just don't see SKC taking it with 2 goal difference. So:
Montreal +0.75 @ 1.91 Pinnacle 1u
SKC-Montreal <2.5 @ 1.84 Pinnacle 0.5u
Seattle @ Chivas:
With bet on Seattle already in place, I'm going to add total play here. Chivas is the top teams for overs this season @ 8-4 o/u. In league struggling to get it over 2.5 this is very impressive. And by impressive I mean their defence, that can allow anybody to score 3+ goals. With all the mess happening there, I can't expect them to turn into defencive force in half a week. They'll probably have 1 practice with new coach.
Seattle also adds value for playing total. Very talented offensive team, with couple of bad games, should be a good spot for a little confidence builder. They are coming in with 3 over streak, which is a good angle historically. Teams continue with overs more often than not in spots like this, and Seattle is no exception. Overs are at much better odds than unders, so this is a great opportunity.
Seattle @ Chivas over 2.5 @ 1.99 Pinnacle 0.5u
Houston @ Columbus:
Another good spot which combines with historical data. Both teams coming of midweek games. Columbus struggled to score against 10 man third tier team, and even let them make it a draw, playing 11vs10. They end up winning, but the lost key player in Gaven (Oduro was hurt last week too), and played a lot of key starters. Houston won much easier, but they have to travel in short time. So fatigue, not a lot of energy and it's already great for under game. Columbus play lowscoring games at home, and Houston was always a home team. They had a pretty surprising run on the road, but if we exclude their 4-0 win @ DC they are nowhere near good numbers in terms of goals. Plus Columbus is yet to win with 1-0/2-0 score, another historical angle that proven to be good. They should do it sometime soon, so this match is just another possibility. Tough spot for both teams, should be a dry game with no crazy goalscoring action involved.
Houston @ Columbus Under 2.25 @ 1.97 Pinnacle 0.5u
1-0/2-0 correct scores on columbus win
LA Galaxy @ New England Revolution:
NER is money when it comes to under games. Their style is hated, but productive. Both teams are "underish", despite couple of 4 goal perfomances by LA. On the road they usually keep it tight. They have a long trip after midweek game in cup (half of team played, half stayed at home) and they are missing very important players due to various reasons. Keane presence was key for their spectacular perfomances, before his return they were in a little slump. Now, with Magee gone and Robbie Keane on international duty, they may have problems with offensive production again. Everybody is expecting tough game, and NER can't play it any other way. NER is on 3 under streak, again a very good additional angle to go on with another under in this game. Situation and historic data combined.
LA Galaxy @ New England Revolution Under 2.5 @ 1.83 Pinnacle 0.5u
My leans/opinions on other totals, that are not confirmed by statistics. So decide for yourself if you want to play them or not.
DC @ Chicago:
Bookies have been consistently failing with lowest under odds games. I mentioned and used it in couple of weeks, and this is just another game that's getting great value. With two struggling teams it's public opinion this will be another shitty display, but I think that both teams are coming alive and ready to put a good perfomance. Chicago is coming home for a 3 game stretch, and this is where they are not as bad as it may seem. They won 2 here against NY and Columbus, and their loss against Phily was unfortunate. They weren't able to find their offense, and wasted a lot of chances. Now they added Magee, who is happy to return to his hometown and already scored in their cup match. Maybe he will be the the reason for their offence going back to normal. DC is a good opponent, with struggling defence and improving offence. They can provide enough chances, and they can probably score themselves too. So with chances certain to present themselves, these teams just need to find they way to make the final touch. Ready to risk at those odds.
Over 2.5 @ 2.25
Toronto @ Philadelphia:
Phily played midweek, with all starters playing heavy minutes. Toronto is adding pieces, with Koevermans questionable, but maybe good to go. They put up a fight at home and play with confidence. Phily's defence can always present more than enough chances. Their last game @ Phily it was crazy at the end, but barely holded under 2.5. Now Toronto can't play counters and be number 2, and with all the fatigue I think Phily won't mind. They are good with counters and always find some way to put the ball into the net. So this game should be very active, with many chances created. Playing Toronto as a side should seem to be the best play from that writeup, but you have to be insane to do that.
Over 2.5 @ 1.9
I will probably have some more to win and handicap bets later. Good situation for New York to win, Vancouver can't perform on the road so far. But than again, it's weird week and those NY odds are never too inviting.
