Portland - Seattle
Of all the guest teams in 2nd leg, Seattle is in most predictable spot. They need an away win at Portland, so they are pretty desperate. This is already forcing them to make usual dumb panic moves. They are going to force Obafemi and Yedlin, who are not fully recovered and missed action cause of injuries, right into most important game of the season. Stuff like this doesn't usually ends well and it mess up rotation once again. Team already has bad chemistry and players changing every game doesn't help the case.
So with desperate moves will come desperate play. I can't even imagine how bad Seattle defence going to be, since they are going all in and going to attack. Portland is great at controlling possesion and they haven't been overforced by anybody at home this season. Only RSL came close, but it was 3-3 draw and it was when Portland had bad streak.
So I don't see Seattle getting anything done without insane commitment to offence. If they don't do that they won't have possession and will look toothless like usual on the road. So there's no other way for them to play and this will put their most weak line (defence) under pressure. Portland is more than capable to exploit that situation, and actually they are one of the best teams to do it.
So if Seattle won't succeed with early goal and everything going their way, this is going to be disastrous game for them, with Portland taking victory. Probably more than one goal difference, but Portland tend to take conservative approach at times, and in such an important game like this I won't risk with bigger handicap. But I believe their win is going to happen very very often here.
Portland Win 2.130 PinnacleOf all the guest teams in 2nd leg, Seattle is in most predictable spot. They need an away win at Portland, so they are pretty desperate. This is already forcing them to make usual dumb panic moves. They are going to force Obafemi and Yedlin, who are not fully recovered and missed action cause of injuries, right into most important game of the season. Stuff like this doesn't usually ends well and it mess up rotation once again. Team already has bad chemistry and players changing every game doesn't help the case.
So with desperate moves will come desperate play. I can't even imagine how bad Seattle defence going to be, since they are going all in and going to attack. Portland is great at controlling possesion and they haven't been overforced by anybody at home this season. Only RSL came close, but it was 3-3 draw and it was when Portland had bad streak.
So I don't see Seattle getting anything done without insane commitment to offence. If they don't do that they won't have possession and will look toothless like usual on the road. So there's no other way for them to play and this will put their most weak line (defence) under pressure. Portland is more than capable to exploit that situation, and actually they are one of the best teams to do it.
So if Seattle won't succeed with early goal and everything going their way, this is going to be disastrous game for them, with Portland taking victory. Probably more than one goal difference, but Portland tend to take conservative approach at times, and in such an important game like this I won't risk with bigger handicap. But I believe their win is going to happen very very often here.
*write up is from morning, so don't know what the odds are. would play it at anything better than even money
Houston - SKC
Very tough schedule for both teams and both coming off an overtime wins. So with tired legs and bad quality of plays this game will get right into SKC type game. They are consistent on the road and had by far the best road defence. So when game is underish and set pieces and one moment can decide a game, this where SKC is at their best.
Houston had additional wild card game, so they are in a very tough spot. Fatigue is accumulating, and they have to perform at home. Many players already banged up, with playoff micro injuries. Plus I don't think they are fully emotionally invested. It has been a tiring road to this stage, with big win and emotional ending in wild card game, 2 games against NY where they should lose, but hold on and had some luck to win it in the end. Now they will be under pressure to have a great game at home. It's just hard to expect them to give 110%.
SKC has chip on their shoulder, with previous playoff runs ended by Houston. Won't dig too much into that, cause this is the first time they meet under these conditions. But they certainl not going to be sloppy here. And they already did that in first away game at New England, so I would expect them to play their A game here. One more argument for them is that they are good on set pieces and in the air, and Houston was very vulnerable vs New York, who are not the scariest team in the air. Maybe stats wise it's not true, but it happend way to often to be unnoticed.
Houston is in a very tough spot and I just have to go against them. They had up and down regular season, and this no rest playoff run can cause team perfomance go from good to bad in a hurry. SKC is one of the best teams to bet on the road and they'll have their type of game today. Good opportunity to get good result agains their nemesis.
Sporting Kansas City Handicap 0 and +0.5 for Game 1.962 Pinnacle 0.8u
Sporting Kansas City 1X2 for Game 3.460 Pinnacle 1/10 0.2u
Very tough schedule for both teams and both coming off an overtime wins. So with tired legs and bad quality of plays this game will get right into SKC type game. They are consistent on the road and had by far the best road defence. So when game is underish and set pieces and one moment can decide a game, this where SKC is at their best.
Houston had additional wild card game, so they are in a very tough spot. Fatigue is accumulating, and they have to perform at home. Many players already banged up, with playoff micro injuries. Plus I don't think they are fully emotionally invested. It has been a tiring road to this stage, with big win and emotional ending in wild card game, 2 games against NY where they should lose, but hold on and had some luck to win it in the end. Now they will be under pressure to have a great game at home. It's just hard to expect them to give 110%.
SKC has chip on their shoulder, with previous playoff runs ended by Houston. Won't dig too much into that, cause this is the first time they meet under these conditions. But they certainl not going to be sloppy here. And they already did that in first away game at New England, so I would expect them to play their A game here. One more argument for them is that they are good on set pieces and in the air, and Houston was very vulnerable vs New York, who are not the scariest team in the air. Maybe stats wise it's not true, but it happend way to often to be unnoticed.
Houston is in a very tough spot and I just have to go against them. They had up and down regular season, and this no rest playoff run can cause team perfomance go from good to bad in a hurry. SKC is one of the best teams to bet on the road and they'll have their type of game today. Good opportunity to get good result agains their nemesis.
Sporting Kansas City Handicap 0 and +0.5 for Game 1.962 Pinnacle 0.8u
Sporting Kansas City 1X2 for Game 3.460 Pinnacle 1/10 0.2u
Well, after seeing tired ass game yesterday, there's much more certainty about what should happen today. RSL pretty much falls into same area as Houston yesterday.
RSL is scary to bet against, but they are very vulnerable today. They had "the game" already in 2nd leg vs LA, so big emotional and physical waste happened. They lost Saborio, who is very crucial for their offence. Both sides are talking midfield, but with quality and play style of both teams advantage is going to be somewhere else. And RSL just lost a big one.
But main area of advantage is going to be athletecism. All season long I wrote that Portland has the best athletes in the league and now it should pay off. Portland with no overtime and not the hardest series in previous stage should be capable to execute game plan better. Key to winning midfield is putting pressure on oposition and Portland has been living off turnovers and pressure. RSL is presented as team that can deal with that and it's been a key for them during reg. season success. But now it's not the same and it fatigue can become the key factor.
Plus RSL midfield would be demanded to do more today. They not only need to win battle in midfield, they need to put more effort to goalscoring, and they need result today. So again, to much to ask from tired players coming of emotional OT win. If they had Saborio upfront, they can get some random goal from nothing. But without him it's just too much to ask.
They've been nemesis for Portland so far, but yesterday game showed, that it's about here and now, not what history shows. Plus Portland just played Seattle with same tactical approach and they would be ready to play vs RSL. Reg. season defeats can be a good value for them so I really like them as an underdog here.
Same as yesterday +0.25 main bet and Win small bet on Portland.
RSL is scary to bet against, but they are very vulnerable today. They had "the game" already in 2nd leg vs LA, so big emotional and physical waste happened. They lost Saborio, who is very crucial for their offence. Both sides are talking midfield, but with quality and play style of both teams advantage is going to be somewhere else. And RSL just lost a big one.
But main area of advantage is going to be athletecism. All season long I wrote that Portland has the best athletes in the league and now it should pay off. Portland with no overtime and not the hardest series in previous stage should be capable to execute game plan better. Key to winning midfield is putting pressure on oposition and Portland has been living off turnovers and pressure. RSL is presented as team that can deal with that and it's been a key for them during reg. season success. But now it's not the same and it fatigue can become the key factor.
Plus RSL midfield would be demanded to do more today. They not only need to win battle in midfield, they need to put more effort to goalscoring, and they need result today. So again, to much to ask from tired players coming of emotional OT win. If they had Saborio upfront, they can get some random goal from nothing. But without him it's just too much to ask.
They've been nemesis for Portland so far, but yesterday game showed, that it's about here and now, not what history shows. Plus Portland just played Seattle with same tactical approach and they would be ready to play vs RSL. Reg. season defeats can be a good value for them so I really like them as an underdog here.
Same as yesterday +0.25 main bet and Win small bet on Portland.
Playoff results
Big ones:
Portland win Seattle 2.13 3-2
Sporting Kansas City Handicap 0 and +0.5 vs Houston for Game 1.962 Pinnacle 0.8u
Sporting Kansas City 1X2 vs Houston for Game 3.460 Pinnacle 0.2u 0-0
Small ones:
Seattle win Colorado 1.95 2-0
Portland +0.25 and Win vs RSL 2-4
2013 Season results for big ones:
Won 37
Lost 21
Returned 3
Half Win 6
Half Lose 2
Average Odds: 2.03
Return: 25.46%
All other stuff like leans/smaller bets didn't have same success ofcourse, but there was some use in posting them. 9-1 or something in US Cup, positive results in Canadian Cup, some live bet opportunities. And I think they've ended in positive overall, but I haven't tracked them so can't be sure.
Goal for the season has been achieved, and it was a fun ride. See ya next season!
Big ones:
Portland win Seattle 2.13 3-2
Sporting Kansas City Handicap 0 and +0.5 vs Houston for Game 1.962 Pinnacle 0.8u
Sporting Kansas City 1X2 vs Houston for Game 3.460 Pinnacle 0.2u 0-0
Small ones:
Seattle win Colorado 1.95 2-0
Portland +0.25 and Win vs RSL 2-4
2013 Season results for big ones:
Won 37
Lost 21
Returned 3
Half Win 6
Half Lose 2
Average Odds: 2.03
Return: 25.46%
All other stuff like leans/smaller bets didn't have same success ofcourse, but there was some use in posting them. 9-1 or something in US Cup, positive results in Canadian Cup, some live bet opportunities. And I think they've ended in positive overall, but I haven't tracked them so can't be sure.
Goal for the season has been achieved, and it was a fun ride. See ya next season!
