Chicago @ Vancouver:
Odds are on the crossroads of two value trends. Chicago is still overrated and Vancouver at home is still under rated. Reasons are simple for both. Chicago is riding their good result/good play streak, but just one was on the road. So there should be no fear or overestimating their potential on the road. As for Vancouver, team has been completely opposite on the road and at home for pretty much 3 seasons straight. So this season story continues, they are "elite" team at home, haven't lost yet. So there is a lot of sense of backing them at home. They are on a great run since June, and they can become number 1 home team in the league if they win this game. And all of this somehow doesn't mean a thing, since odds for their win are +money. So odds wise, there is one side to play here and it's Vancouver.
As for football reasons, not much to say here. They way Vancouver play at home they will have no problem with winning midfield, and their strikers are on a roll as much as Magee. Magee scored the only chance he got last game against SKC, and that moment was created by SKC defenders. Abscences are tougher for Chicago, and their goalkeeper is not good. Comentators gave stats about him, that he's allowing 3+ goals, and second SKC goal was a proof that he's not too good. With him under pressure, chances of Chicago doesn't look too good.
I guess that also gives a lot of value for over, but I Vancouver win is the best one.
Vancouver Whitecaps Handicap -0.5 for Game 2.100 Pinnacle 1u
Odds are on the crossroads of two value trends. Chicago is still overrated and Vancouver at home is still under rated. Reasons are simple for both. Chicago is riding their good result/good play streak, but just one was on the road. So there should be no fear or overestimating their potential on the road. As for Vancouver, team has been completely opposite on the road and at home for pretty much 3 seasons straight. So this season story continues, they are "elite" team at home, haven't lost yet. So there is a lot of sense of backing them at home. They are on a great run since June, and they can become number 1 home team in the league if they win this game. And all of this somehow doesn't mean a thing, since odds for their win are +money. So odds wise, there is one side to play here and it's Vancouver.
As for football reasons, not much to say here. They way Vancouver play at home they will have no problem with winning midfield, and their strikers are on a roll as much as Magee. Magee scored the only chance he got last game against SKC, and that moment was created by SKC defenders. Abscences are tougher for Chicago, and their goalkeeper is not good. Comentators gave stats about him, that he's allowing 3+ goals, and second SKC goal was a proof that he's not too good. With him under pressure, chances of Chicago doesn't look too good.
I guess that also gives a lot of value for over, but I Vancouver win is the best one.
Vancouver Whitecaps Handicap -0.5 for Game 2.100 Pinnacle 1u
LA @ Portland:
Situation is same as in previous game in terms of odds, but quite different on the field. LA is getting too much credit, their odds (just like any other LA franchise) has been ridiculous all season long. So betting against them might have some variance (since they are successfull team), but it has value. LA hasn't been good on the road this year, and in years before. They win around 6 games, which is not bad in general, but still nowhere near good enough to cover their odds. And it leave most of the games for ties and losses, and with Portland being one of the league top teams and getting 1.7+ on pk, it's profitable in blind betting theory. LA had a lot of bad road games, all of the games against elite home teams (Dallas, Vancouver, NYRB, RSL) were lost. They won one at RSL too, but I'm not counting one to New England, to isolate what's really improtant. Portland has no warning signs on either of those things. They have good odds, betting them was great whole year, if you exclude first games of the season, their home game was very good. Actually, it was 6 straight wins. NER got away with a draw, but it was Portland's game, and they missed ton of chances. So you have to like their chances of being favourite to win this game.
On the field it might not be so one sided as in stats and value. As I already mentioned LA might not perform well vs top teams on the road this season, but this is the team that's capable of taking 3 pts on the road vs anybody. So it won't be surprise. Add to that that they are almost at full strength roster wise, and this time of year they usually make a big run. Time for international abscences is over, and they had key players missing because of that for years. They miss Donovan in this game, but Portland has more and those players would really help them. I think that cpt. Johnson is a great motor guy, and he is essential for this team despite all their depth.
LA last results were not so convincing, wins but with late goals etc. But Keane and Zardes are playing very well, and with Portland having problems in back line, they can become problem. So on the field it can be anybody's game, and can be decided by 1 moment or 1 mistake.
So it might be that fear has big eyes, but I can't play it big in these conditions. Ofcourse that value can't be missed, but I will go as safe as I can with it. You can't profit from draw, but you can't ignore it. Maybe it's even smart to bet it, but I don't bet draws so:
Portland Timbers Handicap pk for Game 1.735 Pinnacle 0.5u
Situation is same as in previous game in terms of odds, but quite different on the field. LA is getting too much credit, their odds (just like any other LA franchise) has been ridiculous all season long. So betting against them might have some variance (since they are successfull team), but it has value. LA hasn't been good on the road this year, and in years before. They win around 6 games, which is not bad in general, but still nowhere near good enough to cover their odds. And it leave most of the games for ties and losses, and with Portland being one of the league top teams and getting 1.7+ on pk, it's profitable in blind betting theory. LA had a lot of bad road games, all of the games against elite home teams (Dallas, Vancouver, NYRB, RSL) were lost. They won one at RSL too, but I'm not counting one to New England, to isolate what's really improtant. Portland has no warning signs on either of those things. They have good odds, betting them was great whole year, if you exclude first games of the season, their home game was very good. Actually, it was 6 straight wins. NER got away with a draw, but it was Portland's game, and they missed ton of chances. So you have to like their chances of being favourite to win this game.
On the field it might not be so one sided as in stats and value. As I already mentioned LA might not perform well vs top teams on the road this season, but this is the team that's capable of taking 3 pts on the road vs anybody. So it won't be surprise. Add to that that they are almost at full strength roster wise, and this time of year they usually make a big run. Time for international abscences is over, and they had key players missing because of that for years. They miss Donovan in this game, but Portland has more and those players would really help them. I think that cpt. Johnson is a great motor guy, and he is essential for this team despite all their depth.
LA last results were not so convincing, wins but with late goals etc. But Keane and Zardes are playing very well, and with Portland having problems in back line, they can become problem. So on the field it can be anybody's game, and can be decided by 1 moment or 1 mistake.
So it might be that fear has big eyes, but I can't play it big in these conditions. Ofcourse that value can't be missed, but I will go as safe as I can with it. You can't profit from draw, but you can't ignore it. Maybe it's even smart to bet it, but I don't bet draws so:
Portland Timbers Handicap pk for Game 1.735 Pinnacle 0.5u
Just my thoughts on what's going to happen.
Mtl @ NY:
Gotta love taking a shot with Mtl in this game. Their win at 4.2 odds presents a lot of value. They had most of bad games on the road, and they are not to be trusted to constantly play well on the road. But they already prooved that they can take a win in tough places, and most importantly the can score on the road. Odds more than cover for possibility of weak game and loss from them. I don't think going safer here is the way to go, if they gonna have a good game they will have a shot at a win. Over 2 goals is a super safe option for some parlays or something. Can't see this game endind with less than 2.
Mtl win 4.23
Hou @ NER:
This game has draw written all over it. That's what I thought before looking at pickem on MLS site. Those "editors" saw it too, so this is when you know it's dead wrong. Anyway betting draws is not what I do regularly, so it's not the way to go. I like home team to win here. They had a lot of success since May, and they added offence to their arsenal. So now they play on both sides of the field. Despite collapse at Vancouver, and some draws with bottom teams, I think they are still in great shape and under the radar. When you talk about slowing down, this team was not supposed to have nowhere near the results they are getting. So with Houston road woes and offence nowhere to be found, it's going to be hard for them to pull an upset. Game looks to be tight and odds are not sweet, but maybe it's just an illusion or prejudice.
NER win 2.06
Toronto @ SKC:
With all the stuff I wrote about + goal, this is a stay away game. I won't try the total either. It can go every way possible imo. Going with + goal on Toronto is also risky, they had some horrible road perfomances, and even with odds giving them value, I don't want to try my luck with this team.
Seattle @ SJ:
Was a little surprised to see total so low. -Wondo -Obafemi and what, this game now end 0-0? So my initial thought is to play over here. Odds got even better now, so I like it even more. If you want to find reasons not to, there are plenty: missing strikers (all of whom contribute big in terms of goal scored %), shitty road play from Seattle (they don't score, and look pathetic very often) etc etc. But SJ plays and defends in way, that make opponents offence much better. Toronto scored on them, and everybody have chances and goals. They can't keep a clean sheet for ages now, and games are always crazy, with ton of counters and lazy/lame defence from SJ included. They also looked like shit in some games without Wondo, so I'm not sure it will be the game where they dominate Seattle and end it in their favour and under. In my opinion it should be closer to what happend in Philadelphia-Seattle game, where it was goal fest and a 2-2 draw, even when Seattle played like total shit. Plus Seattle may benefit from Obafemi abscence, their combo with Johnson wasn't working. Now they will play more natural offence, with all eyes of playmakers on one option to pass.
So Over 2.5 @ 2.23 and everything higher (>3 >3.5) is my first choice, and Seattle +0.25 at 1.855 is my second one.
RSL @ Dallas:
Vaughany shared info on last page, so you can find some reasons there. Dallas odds on pk at home definately look inviting. I personally don't want to get into this game. Dallas gone cold big time, and counting on their victory is hard these days. So in morale stand point, they are lucky to play at home. Because RSL is coming on crazy hot, despite all their abscences. Getting a draw with -man last game, riding long win streak before that. With their depth and good morale, this is definately a team that can put up a fight. Under is a good way to go here, but odds already moved it to 2.25.
Mtl @ NY:
Gotta love taking a shot with Mtl in this game. Their win at 4.2 odds presents a lot of value. They had most of bad games on the road, and they are not to be trusted to constantly play well on the road. But they already prooved that they can take a win in tough places, and most importantly the can score on the road. Odds more than cover for possibility of weak game and loss from them. I don't think going safer here is the way to go, if they gonna have a good game they will have a shot at a win. Over 2 goals is a super safe option for some parlays or something. Can't see this game endind with less than 2.
Mtl win 4.23
Hou @ NER:
This game has draw written all over it. That's what I thought before looking at pickem on MLS site. Those "editors" saw it too, so this is when you know it's dead wrong. Anyway betting draws is not what I do regularly, so it's not the way to go. I like home team to win here. They had a lot of success since May, and they added offence to their arsenal. So now they play on both sides of the field. Despite collapse at Vancouver, and some draws with bottom teams, I think they are still in great shape and under the radar. When you talk about slowing down, this team was not supposed to have nowhere near the results they are getting. So with Houston road woes and offence nowhere to be found, it's going to be hard for them to pull an upset. Game looks to be tight and odds are not sweet, but maybe it's just an illusion or prejudice.
NER win 2.06
Toronto @ SKC:
With all the stuff I wrote about + goal, this is a stay away game. I won't try the total either. It can go every way possible imo. Going with + goal on Toronto is also risky, they had some horrible road perfomances, and even with odds giving them value, I don't want to try my luck with this team.
Seattle @ SJ:
Was a little surprised to see total so low. -Wondo -Obafemi and what, this game now end 0-0? So my initial thought is to play over here. Odds got even better now, so I like it even more. If you want to find reasons not to, there are plenty: missing strikers (all of whom contribute big in terms of goal scored %), shitty road play from Seattle (they don't score, and look pathetic very often) etc etc. But SJ plays and defends in way, that make opponents offence much better. Toronto scored on them, and everybody have chances and goals. They can't keep a clean sheet for ages now, and games are always crazy, with ton of counters and lazy/lame defence from SJ included. They also looked like shit in some games without Wondo, so I'm not sure it will be the game where they dominate Seattle and end it in their favour and under. In my opinion it should be closer to what happend in Philadelphia-Seattle game, where it was goal fest and a 2-2 draw, even when Seattle played like total shit. Plus Seattle may benefit from Obafemi abscence, their combo with Johnson wasn't working. Now they will play more natural offence, with all eyes of playmakers on one option to pass.
So Over 2.5 @ 2.23 and everything higher (>3 >3.5) is my first choice, and Seattle +0.25 at 1.855 is my second one.
RSL @ Dallas:
Vaughany shared info on last page, so you can find some reasons there. Dallas odds on pk at home definately look inviting. I personally don't want to get into this game. Dallas gone cold big time, and counting on their victory is hard these days. So in morale stand point, they are lucky to play at home. Because RSL is coming on crazy hot, despite all their abscences. Getting a draw with -man last game, riding long win streak before that. With their depth and good morale, this is definately a team that can put up a fight. Under is a good way to go here, but odds already moved it to 2.25.
Portland Timbers Handicap pk for Game 1.735 Pinnacle 0.5u Win
Score: 2-1
Nice win for a team, that shown they have a big heart this season. No shitty games whole season and so many comebacks and dominating away games, after what they've done record wise last season.
Vancouver Whitecaps Handicap -0.5 for Game 2.100 Pinnacle 1u Win
Score: 3-1
As I wrote, Vancouver strikers are on as good of a roll, as Magee. Camilo was spectacular.
Score: 2-1
Nice win for a team, that shown they have a big heart this season. No shitty games whole season and so many comebacks and dominating away games, after what they've done record wise last season.
Vancouver Whitecaps Handicap -0.5 for Game 2.100 Pinnacle 1u Win
Score: 3-1
As I wrote, Vancouver strikers are on as good of a roll, as Magee. Camilo was spectacular.
I don't like talking people out of their leans, results of that are very poor. But no, I see much better chance of that in Chivas/Toronto game. Imo Revs are not going back to their heavy defensive ways. Just like Chicago, they sniffed a bit of success and now can't play with old philosophy.
Toronto at Chivas should be the right type of game for under and tough, ugly battle.
Many interesting situations this week.
Couple of home favs odds you usually won't see @Seattle and @Montreal.
I won't touch Seattle for many reasons. Too many abscences is the main one.
Montreal got the same odds but is in much better spot. They are perfoming better at home. They don't have half of regular players missing or injured, in fact Just as Seattle they had bad results in last games, but not all of them were objective. Even last game, NY had one of the best games of the year against them, and the way they executed and scored was excellent. When your opponents play like this, there's nothing you can do. And as for opponents, Montreal got better one than Seattle too. Dallas is a slump, and playing on the road has never been their strength. Their offence is simple, and it will be a great relief for struggling MTL defence. They've been collapsing and losing their man, but against Dallas they have a chance for solid perfomance.
So between these two, choice is simple. Mtl has same odds, but multiple advantages. It's a great spot to use "bad recent form" odds increase.
Montreal Impact Handicap -0.5 for Game 1.990 Pinnacle 0.5u*
*I may add to 1u later, I just started exploring possible bets, so if it ends up being one of the best opportunities I will add to it.
Couple of home favs odds you usually won't see @Seattle and @Montreal.
I won't touch Seattle for many reasons. Too many abscences is the main one.
Montreal got the same odds but is in much better spot. They are perfoming better at home. They don't have half of regular players missing or injured, in fact Just as Seattle they had bad results in last games, but not all of them were objective. Even last game, NY had one of the best games of the year against them, and the way they executed and scored was excellent. When your opponents play like this, there's nothing you can do. And as for opponents, Montreal got better one than Seattle too. Dallas is a slump, and playing on the road has never been their strength. Their offence is simple, and it will be a great relief for struggling MTL defence. They've been collapsing and losing their man, but against Dallas they have a chance for solid perfomance.
So between these two, choice is simple. Mtl has same odds, but multiple advantages. It's a great spot to use "bad recent form" odds increase.
Montreal Impact Handicap -0.5 for Game 1.990 Pinnacle 0.5u*
*I may add to 1u later, I just started exploring possible bets, so if it ends up being one of the best opportunities I will add to it.
SKC @ RSL:
Great spot here. Very strange line with SKC being such a big underdog. Team that usually has ugliest of odds at any place in any form, now getting great odds. They are playing great and I'm sure they will be going for victory in this game. RSL has insane streak of their own, but this is where I like this bet even more. With so many missing players, they've got a surprise 3-0 win on the road. So emotionally, this squad should be in a let down spot. Before Dallas game they escaped with a draw against Phily, so I have no doubt that SKC is the team to stop them. Producing miracles time and time agains is a hard task, SKC can use their quality and their steady play to not lose here. But I really think they will win. Main bet is safe one, but putting smaller stake on SKC win.
Sporting Kansas City Handicap 0 and +0.5 for Game 1.943 Pinnacle 1u
Great spot here. Very strange line with SKC being such a big underdog. Team that usually has ugliest of odds at any place in any form, now getting great odds. They are playing great and I'm sure they will be going for victory in this game. RSL has insane streak of their own, but this is where I like this bet even more. With so many missing players, they've got a surprise 3-0 win on the road. So emotionally, this squad should be in a let down spot. Before Dallas game they escaped with a draw against Phily, so I have no doubt that SKC is the team to stop them. Producing miracles time and time agains is a hard task, SKC can use their quality and their steady play to not lose here. But I really think they will win. Main bet is safe one, but putting smaller stake on SKC win.
Sporting Kansas City Handicap 0 and +0.5 for Game 1.943 Pinnacle 1u
Vancouver @ LA:
Wrote about +1 spread vs LA before, so same story again. Vancouver is playing too damn well to ignore them. It's always dangerous to play them on the road (plus they are a type of team that can end run like that with some 0-3 no contest lose), but there's a very good safety bag. Taking them +1 goal makes sense, but I will try to go further. Why not win something, even when they lose with 1 goal difference. Odds are quite good for that. A lot of ways to profit from this line, but I will go with safest.
Vancouver Whitecaps Handicap +1 and +1.5 for Game 1.649 Pinnacle 0.5u
Wrote about +1 spread vs LA before, so same story again. Vancouver is playing too damn well to ignore them. It's always dangerous to play them on the road (plus they are a type of team that can end run like that with some 0-3 no contest lose), but there's a very good safety bag. Taking them +1 goal makes sense, but I will try to go further. Why not win something, even when they lose with 1 goal difference. Odds are quite good for that. A lot of ways to profit from this line, but I will go with safest.
Vancouver Whitecaps Handicap +1 and +1.5 for Game 1.649 Pinnacle 0.5u
Couple of words abour Russian league for those, who might be interested:
Because season started at odd time (July, when usually it was fall-spring calendar) overs are hitting at insane rate. I wanted to mention it earlier, but waited for all teams to play. So it might be nothing, or it might be the month or so period, when overs will hit very often (just like June in MLS).
So if you are looking for some total play, look towards the overs.
I like one game for tommorow. Ural is getting +1 against Spartak at home. This is a very bold line, after what Ural showed against CSKA. Even though team is newly promoted, this won't be an easy place to play for anybody in the league. They play with great energy and have solid execution on offence. So Spartak being 1.5 road fav in this spot makes no sence. They have shown a lot of inconsistency in the past, and their first game wasn't pretty. Odds are more like trash home team - best road team type. My opinion is that it's matchup of mediocre home team vs mediocre road team. No way +1 at 1.85 price is a bad bet here.
Ural +1 @ 1.85
Because season started at odd time (July, when usually it was fall-spring calendar) overs are hitting at insane rate. I wanted to mention it earlier, but waited for all teams to play. So it might be nothing, or it might be the month or so period, when overs will hit very often (just like June in MLS).
So if you are looking for some total play, look towards the overs.
I like one game for tommorow. Ural is getting +1 against Spartak at home. This is a very bold line, after what Ural showed against CSKA. Even though team is newly promoted, this won't be an easy place to play for anybody in the league. They play with great energy and have solid execution on offence. So Spartak being 1.5 road fav in this spot makes no sence. They have shown a lot of inconsistency in the past, and their first game wasn't pretty. Odds are more like trash home team - best road team type. My opinion is that it's matchup of mediocre home team vs mediocre road team. No way +1 at 1.85 price is a bad bet here.
Ural +1 @ 1.85
Montreal @ DC:
Bookies hate Mtl, so no other way to go but to play them almost every week. And today, it's a very good spot to exploit that hate. Problems with defence has been obvious, so last 2 games Montreal really picked it up on defence. Not ideal ofcourse, but still much better than what was happening in June/early July. That's very important for away game. Their results are really irrelevant here, because when you look at their road schedule, it's mostly big boys of the league. And even against such a strong opposition MTl has been getting some points. So the only real comparison can be Toronto game. The game that started horribly, with 1-3 at 18 minutes or something. So that's the only way DC can get their victory. But with Mtl paying more attention to their defence, I expect DC to have real trouble in this game. They are limited on offence and can't really keep their goal safe. So I think that MTL is in a very good position today to get it done. Really tough choice of what to bet, but since I couldn't decide between win and pk, I will go for middle:
Montreal -0.25 @ 2.14 Pinnacle 0.5u
Bookies hate Mtl, so no other way to go but to play them almost every week. And today, it's a very good spot to exploit that hate. Problems with defence has been obvious, so last 2 games Montreal really picked it up on defence. Not ideal ofcourse, but still much better than what was happening in June/early July. That's very important for away game. Their results are really irrelevant here, because when you look at their road schedule, it's mostly big boys of the league. And even against such a strong opposition MTl has been getting some points. So the only real comparison can be Toronto game. The game that started horribly, with 1-3 at 18 minutes or something. So that's the only way DC can get their victory. But with Mtl paying more attention to their defence, I expect DC to have real trouble in this game. They are limited on offence and can't really keep their goal safe. So I think that MTL is in a very good position today to get it done. Really tough choice of what to bet, but since I couldn't decide between win and pk, I will go for middle:
Montreal -0.25 @ 2.14 Pinnacle 0.5u
Chivas @ SJ:
Wow, SJ love is back. SJ hasn't won with 2+ goal difference this season, even at home. And most of their home results are undeserved. And all of the sudden they are such a heavy fav to win this. So add that to current Chivas form, who has been very respectable after all that mess that happened. Their loss to Phily was by 2 goals, but it was not a regular game. Othr than that, they got a pretty good run. So playing Chivas +goal here is a very good opportunity. Lose bet only when SJ win by 2? I'll take that. So there's choice again, between +1 and +1.25. Odds are not that bad on +1.25, so I will take it.
Chivas +1.25 @ 1.847 0.5u
Wow, SJ love is back. SJ hasn't won with 2+ goal difference this season, even at home. And most of their home results are undeserved. And all of the sudden they are such a heavy fav to win this. So add that to current Chivas form, who has been very respectable after all that mess that happened. Their loss to Phily was by 2 goals, but it was not a regular game. Othr than that, they got a pretty good run. So playing Chivas +goal here is a very good opportunity. Lose bet only when SJ win by 2? I'll take that. So there's choice again, between +1 and +1.25. Odds are not that bad on +1.25, so I will take it.
Chivas +1.25 @ 1.847 0.5u
GL tonight exer. I think Montreal's ship has passed but hard not to like what i see out of Chivas USA since the coaching change. Don't understand the love for SJ at all...they play terrible football and were lucky as hell to beat Portland even with an extra man. Sent u an email btw
Montreal Win @ 2.2 1-0
Chicago win @ 1.6 0-2
Portland +1 @ 1.6 1-2
Little gain cause of MTL odds. Red cards have been a problem lately, always on a wrong side. DC fcuked up two in a row too. I don't know if it's smart to fade them consistently now, but they get on the road and because of these wins they can get a little odds bump.
Chicago win @ 1.6 0-2
Portland +1 @ 1.6 1-2
Little gain cause of MTL odds. Red cards have been a problem lately, always on a wrong side. DC fcuked up two in a row too. I don't know if it's smart to fade them consistently now, but they get on the road and because of these wins they can get a little odds bump.
