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hacheman@therx.com
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Sleepers: CFs Bourjos, Martin intriguing
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Eric Karabell

SURPRISE, Ariz. -- The pool of potential high-end stolen base options slants a bit to the American League this season, with Mike Trout and Michael Bourn leading the way, but fantasy owners are always looking for sleeper steals options late in drafts.
On Thursday night at Surprise Stadium, a pair of speedy AL center fielders, each batting from the No. 9 lineup slot and with something to prove this season, flashed their considerable skills as the Texas Rangers edged the Los Angeles Angels 10-9.

The Rangers' Leonys Martin delivered the game-winning hit, but the Angels' Peter Bourjos is the more accomplished of the two, based on his breakout 2011 season, when he hit 12 home runs and 11 triples and stole 22 bases with a reasonable .271 batting average. In 2012, Bourjos wasn't able to approach those numbers, but when I spoke to him after Thursday's game, it sure sounded like he expects to get back to that level. So what happened last year?


<OFFER>"I was healthy," said Bourjos, coming off a year in which he hit .220 and stole only three bases. "I got off to a decent start, then the emergence of Mike Trout and Torii [Hunter] having a great year and [Mark] Trumbo doing what he did just put me on the bench. Right now, I just want to go out and have good at-bats, do what I did in 2011 and get consistent playing time. I expect to get that this year."</OFFER>

It's reasonable to expect Bourjos, so elite a defensive center fielder that Trout is scheduled to play in left, to play regularly again and hold his job. At the plate, however, Bourjos is far from a guarantee. His main asset is his speed, which helped him produce 53 triples and 141 stolen bases in 472 minor league games, but over parts of three seasons in the big leagues, he has compiled a low .301 on-base percentage.

I asked Bourjos, who over the past week has a pair of home runs and three stolen bases (including a steal Thursday), what his offensive expectations are, starting with his power and whether he can hit 15-20 home runs.

"It's possible I can do that," he said. "Obviously I want to run and hope to have the freedom to run. If I make consistent contact, I will start hitting balls out of the ballpark. I'd like to get on base more. It's about controlling the strike zone. The more at-bats you get, especially at this level, the more comfortable you get and the more walks you'll have. I don't think it's going to happen overnight."


Last year, Bourjos hit .167 in April, somewhat sealing his lack of opportunities the rest of the season. Manager Mike Scioscia hasn't promised him anything in terms of playing time, and Trout is capable of playing a terrific center field as well, with former All-Star Vernon Wells lurking and bringing power potential.

Bourjos' 2011 statistics are far more relevant than his 2012 ones, though, as it seemed a tough situation spiraled out of control. We shouldn't assume significant power stats, though in his age-26 season the potential is there to develop more power, even with low walk and contact rates. And a 25-steal season is realistic, even if he's hitting out of the No. 9 hole.

"I feel good where I'm at it right now, but I did last year coming into the season, and obviously things changed," he said. "I just want to go out and have fun, play the game I love playing, have good at-bats, and at the end of the year, the numbers will come."

As for the lefty-hitting Martin, his three-run double in the ninth inning off a left-handed pitcher was the walk-off hit, which capped off a three-hit, four-RBI evening. Martin isn't a lock for playing time either, as right-handed hitting Craig Gentry has more experience and is a fine defender, perhaps setting up a natural platoon. Martin is younger and has enticing offensive skills, though. Like Bourjos, he stole his third base of the spring Thursday, but unlike Bourjos, he has had trouble translating his speed to successful base stealing. Last year at Triple-A Round Rock, Martin was caught stealing on nine of 19 attempts. While he said he is still mentally preparing for the season, learning how to get good jumps and how to read pitchers, manager Ron Washington had quite a bit more to say.

"We expect a good year from him," Washington said. "He has an idea at the plate what he's doing, and he's picking up instincts on the basepaths. We think he will be a big base stealer, but now he has to outsmart the opponent. He has to play with a little bit of intelligence at the major league level. In the end, he's a talent, and he will find a way to get it done."

That's good news for fantasy owners, though it's a big unknown whether the numbers will come as soon as 2013. Martin showed power (32 extra-base hits in 55 games) and decent plate discipline in the minors in 2012, and his speed isn't in question. Look for the Rangers to give him every chance to show those skills at the big league level.

It would hardly be a surprise if each of these AL West center fielders reached double digits in home runs and stole 25 bases, so consider them as later-round selections or early additions in April.


Game notes: Starting pitchers Jerome Williams and Derek Lowe were abysmal, but neither should be targeted in fantasy leagues, even AL-only formats. Lowe permitted four home runs in the fourth inning alone, to Albert Pujols, Josh Hamilton, Howard Kendrick and Hank Conger. Can't really find a sleeper from that crew, though one shouldn't view Kendrick's one power-laden season, when he hit 18 home runs in 2011, as aberrant. He is hitting .521 this spring. … For those wondering about Conger's chances to emerge, he's probably not going to make the squad out of spring training. … Trout stole his fourth base of the spring Thursday and drew his 11th walk, against only eight strikeouts. People assume major regression is coming, but he's 21. Why can't he improve his plate discipline? … Two relevant hitters returning from the World Baseball Classic were each placed in desirable lineup spots for their first game back. Angels shortstop Erick Aybar hit second. Wow, if that were to continue, projecting his best season would make sense. He homered Thursday. For the Rangers, outfielder Nelson Cruz slotted in fifth, after Lance Berkman and Adrian Beltre. Again, that's a nice spot for him. … Berkman, who I'll probably keep choosing in drafts even when he's retired, is among the spring leaders in walks. That's not a surprise and a reminder that his plate discipline remains. Hopefully his health will. … I asked ESPNDallas.com writer Richard Durrett for a Rangers sleeper, and he recommended first baseman Mitch Moreland. The lefty-hitting Moreland has power, and it's worth noting he has no clear platoon mate to face the lefties. Perhaps facing more lefties will hurt Moreland's batting average, but it should help his counting stats.

Thanks for checking out this week's Sleeper Tour, and I hope you enjoyed it as much as I did! There's just one more week of spring training, then the stats count. If you're like me, I'm sure you can't wait for Opening Day!
 

hacheman@therx.com
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Goldschmidt a top-10 first baseman

By AJ Mass | ESPN.com

First base used to be the first place fantasy owners turned to begin to shape their fantasy fortunes. In 2006, for example, six of the 13 players who hit over .300 with 30 home runs hung out on the far right of the infield. If you missed out on one of these power/average stalwarts, your chances at a winning season were severely diminished.

However, over time, the gap between the statistical elite at first base and the rest of the positions on the field has diminished to the point where only Prince Fielder hit that .300-30 plateau in 2012. In fact, only six first basemen managed to hit at least 20 home runs with a batting average over .280.
Simply put, there's not nearly as much "can't-miss" talent at the position as there used to be and a lot of fantasy owners are going to be forced to decide between a quartet of names, none of which seems to stand out from the pack, to hold down the proverbial fort at first. When you reach the middle rounds of the draft, somebody in your draft is going to be tasked with making the call between Ike Davis, Freddie Freeman, Paul Goldschmidt and Eric Hosmer.
2013 ProjectionsRHRRBISBBA
Ike Davis8633962.268
Freddie Freeman8527965.280
Paul Goldschmidt83268912.268
Eric Hosmer75227914.274

<THEAD>
</THEAD><TBODY>
</TBODY>


Just in case that somebody ends up being you, let me tell you there's no reason to hem and haw about it. Only one of these four players deserves inclusion in the first base top 10. His name is Paul Goldschmidt.
Not one of these guys is going to approach the .300-30 plateau that is a very realistic possibility for the three players who will end up being selected in the first round of your draft: Albert Pujols, Prince Fielder and Joey Votto. None of them has the positional flexibility that Buster Posey, Joe Mauer, Carlos Santana and Allen Craig have to offer. And in terms of "upside" -- a chance at 40 homers (Edwin Encarnacion) or a .315 batting average (Billy Butler, Adrian Gonzalez) -- you can't confidently expect it here.
In other words, this is the best of the rest and each comes with his own particular area of strength. The one that seems the most appealing to your eye at the point of the draft when you're ready to finally pull the trigger -- Rounds 8-10 -- will depend on what category your team seems to be lacking at that time.


I Need Batting Average
Freddie Freeman has demonstrated the best eye at the plate, with his BB/K rate on the rise from 0.37 in 2011 to 0.50 in 2012. Part of the reason for the increase there is that he's swinging at fewer bad pitches, lowering the percentage of pitches outside of the strike zone he's flailed away at by 4.4 percent in the past year. At the same time, his overall contact rate has risen, meaning he's putting more balls in play and they're better balls to begin with.
Detractors will point out that, in spite of all these positive peripherals, Freeman hit just .212 once September rolled around last year. But Freeman had suffered through eye problems all season, as well as a busted finger that caused his bat grip to suffer. Those problems presumably won't be present in 2013, and as such, Freeman's comfort level at the plate -- and his stats -- could be there all season long. But what if those eye issues do resurface?
I Need Power
There's no question that Ike Davis can knock the ball over the wall and the proof is in his HR/FB rate surge from 12.0 percent in 2010 to 21.1 percent last season. (We're ignoring the "lost season" of 2011 due to injury.) So certainly, another 30 home run season is very realistic to expect. The problem is that it might be all to expect.
Davis hit just .188 at Citi Field and only 11 of his 32 round-trippers caused the Home Run Apple to emerge from that hat in the outfield. In fact, Davis could not seem to hit left-handed pitching in any ballpark, with a .174 batting average and only a .335 slugging percentage. Even if he improves a bit in this department, the run production might be spotty if there's a repeat of his .214 batting average with runners in scoring position.
I Need Speed
Hosmer may not be the fastest player in baseball, but probably uses his speed "smarter" than most. In 2011, Hosmer finished the season tied for 196th in the league with seven infield hits. In 2012, he climbed into the overall top 50 in that category with 17. He's hitting far more ground balls -- all the way up to 53. 6 percent in 2012 -- and legging out more hits as a result, but that's also the reason to be leery of his fluctuating BABIP, which dropped from .314 in 2011 to .255 last year.
When it comes to steals, he chooses his spots more wisely, too. Hosmer was caught only once in 2012, after going 11-of-16 in stolen bases in 2011. But this may be a case of diminishing returns. As Hosmer proves himself to be more of someone to pay attention to on the basepaths, the less likely it will be that opposing pitchers ignore him to the point where he'll feel the urge to take off for second.
I Want It All
In each and every category, Paul Goldschmidt is not projected to be the No. 1 player in this foursome in any single one. Yet, he's the most likely of this quartet to end up finishing first in all five categories. Of all the players we've discussed, Goldschmidt's potential for growth seems to be the largest, perhaps for one reason alone: Chase Field.
It's not typically considered to be as stat-inflating as Coors Field's reputation, but Chase Field is ranked No. 6 in ESPN's Park Factor in terms of home runs, runs scored and overall hits. It's also the No. 4 park for hitting doubles and Goldschmidt was one of 15 players with 40 or more doubles in 2012. But here's the thing: Goldschmidt's 2012 breakout happened almost exclusively on the road.
2012R2BHRRBISBBAOBPSLGOPSTB
Home431810378.253.339.461.800111
Away3925104510.315.377.516.894141

<THEAD>
</THEAD><TBODY>
</TBODY>


Imagine what he might do in 2013 if he starts taking advantage of his Arizona environs to the fullest.
Could this be the second coming of Jeff Bagwell? Through Sunday's action, Goldschmidt was hitting .434 for the spring, and while none of that really matters -- after all, so too is outfielder Shane Robinson of the St. Louis Cardinals and nobody will be talking MVP with him anytime soon -- the truth is that the upside here is immense, with little in the way of reasons to avoid selecting the Diamondbacks' first baseman.
Paul Goldschmidt is the clear best choice from this group to fill out the top 10 at first base. After he's gone, the best bet is to grab the player whose one-category strength is most needed on your own individual roster, be it power (Davis), speed (Hosmer) or batting average (Freeman). However, if the rest of your league has left him out there for the taking and you're the last owner to grab your first baseman, you need to grab Goldschmidt immediately.
 

hacheman@therx.com
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Injured stars could be fantasy bargains
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Eric Karabell

When it comes to dealing with injured players in fantasy drafts, it's safe to assume no two situations are exactly the same. Even with New York Yankees sluggers Mark Teixeira and Curtis Granderson expected to miss roughly the same amount of time (into May), there will be differing degrees of performance expectations after they return.

In ESPN standard drafts, owners should be willing to select the longer-term injury cases such as Teixeira, Granderson, Chase Headley and now, unfortunately, Hanley Ramirez, but know that it needs to come with patience. Don't draft them in March and then find in mid-April you need the bench spots and are willing to deal them for little -- or worse yet, simply send them to the waiver wire. Better to use your 11th-rounder on something you can use, even if it brings less upside.
However, both short- and long-term injury candidates often make for draft-day sleepers. It's about value, and the wise fantasy owner, assuming patience and willingness to follow a planned strategy, can combine an injured option with fill-in April numbers. In one of my leagues last, season I was able to stash away an undervalued Allen Craig for six weeks, yet accumulate more than 120 RBIs from that utility spot since I had added Cody Ross in the interim.
Regardless, here are my thoughts on some noteworthy injured folks. I can't discuss injuries with the depth and knowledge of colleague Stephania Bell, but here are statistical expectations and degree of interest. We'll start with the Yankees and, if there's any room left, deal with other players!
<OFFER></OFFER>
Derek Jeter, SS, Yankees: I jettisoned Jeter in a 16-team, 12-keeper league recently, tipping my hand on value there, and wouldn't be surprised if he sits most of April. Eduardo Nunez, incidentally, is a 30-steal threat with 400 at-bats this season, an outstanding $1 buy in deep auction formats. Jeter is going in the 16th round on average in ESPN live drafts, still optimistic unless you expect a .300 batting average and double digits in home runs and stolen bases, which I don't.
Curtis Granderson, OF, Yankees: This is a straight-forward forearm fracture, not a hand or knee issue that deals with ligaments and can often linger for months. I really do expect Granderson to have a productive four months. My problem is I don't want the .240 batting average. A good value after the top 100, but I haven't drafted him anywhere.
Mark Teixeira, 1B, Yankees: Wrist tendon injuries are no joke. In fact, the team even acknowledges season-ending surgery is possible. I once had a healthy Teixeira in my seventh round, since the 30-homer hitters don't grow on trees anymore, but now I wouldn't consider him in even the 20th round of a standard format.
Hanley Ramirez, SS/3B, Los Angeles Dodgers: Don't blame the WBC. Players get hurt in spring games and even in their kitchens as well. Ramirez tore a thumb ligament. He's outside the top 100 in ESPN ADP, but I wouldn't let him drop further than Round 11. For one, he's a base stealer, and two, he's a shortstop. Six weeks of Yunel Escobar or Cliff Pennington really won't kill you. There's nice value to be had with Hanley.


Chase Headley, 3B, San Diego Padres: Surgery is not pending for the tip of his left thumb, as ligaments weren't involved, and it's possible he plays in April. He's fallen to the eighth round (from the fifth), but that's far enough for me. I'm not too worried about him hitting for power or running the final five months.
David Ortiz, DH, Boston Red Sox: Frankly, it'd be easier if we knew how much time he'd miss. For now, he's expected to land on the DL through April as he deals with recovery from an Achilles injury. Is this another Ryan Howard situation? Absolutely not! He's not close to a top-100 option for drafts, but should be a top-100 performer upon his return, so the 15th round is nice value.
Brett Lawrie, 3B, Toronto Blue Jays: Strained rib muscles will land him on the DL -- when the team actually makes the transaction is anyone's guess -- and certainly Lawrie is starting to look like a brittle player. I'm not convinced yet, but then again, let's not be naive. He plays all-out, and there are consequences. Lawrie might miss only a week or two, strengthening value as a seventh-round choice, but one that should be expected to play no more than 140 games. At least Lawrie should hit and run when he's out there.
David Freese, 3B, St. Louis Cardinals: OK, so this position has turned from quietly deep into an injured mess. Freese's 2012 was a revelation. He played in 144 games and hit! I'm not as confident now. His back injury shouldn't keep him sidelined long, but it could certainly linger and affect production. This is yet another reason why Matt Carpenter deep-league owners should feel pretty good. He's going to play. As for Freese, depending on the construction of my team, I'm ready to go Mike Moustakas, Kyle Seager, Todd Frazier or Pedro Alvarez over him.
Brian McCann, C, Atlanta Braves: There is absolutely no reason to deal with this in any one-catcher league. For example, in a mock draft Monday, I had my choice of Jesus Montero and Jonathan Lucroy as my starter, with my 25th-rounder. In deeper leagues, I suppose McCann can be a sleeper when the torn labrum in his throwing shoulder heals, but there's batting average risk here. He's not among my top 15 catchers. Give me Montero, Lucroy, Carlos Ruiz, A.J. Pierzynski, Ryan Doumit or even Alex Avila.
It's not by accident that there were no pitchers listed above. In a standard 10-team league, I'll likely use bench spots for healthy pitchers, looking to activate them based on weekly matchups. I have taken shots in deeper leagues on a few Tommy John returnees, such as Brandon Beachy, Daniel Hudson and even Scott Baker, but expectations are low. While I'll never forget the Jason Schmidt season in 2003 when his stock plummeted due to a scheduled April DL stint and he still ended up fantasy's best pitcher, I don't see the same upside with Matt Garza, Johan Santana, Shaun Marcum or Phil Hughes, so I've been targeting healthier folks.
At closer, I'm far less concerned with Casey Janssen, Chris Perez and Jason Motte at this point, so I haven't been avoiding them as they slip in drafts or exalting their short-term (well, I believe) replacements in Sergio Santos, Vinnie Pestano and Mitchell Boggs. Then again, there are plenty of saves out there, and there will be a month from now as well.
 

hacheman@therx.com
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Goldschmidt a top-10 first baseman

By AJ Mass | ESPN.com

First base used to be the first place fantasy owners turned to begin to shape their fantasy fortunes. In 2006, for example, six of the 13 players who hit over .300 with 30 home runs hung out on the far right of the infield. If you missed out on one of these power/average stalwarts, your chances at a winning season were severely diminished.

However, over time, the gap between the statistical elite at first base and the rest of the positions on the field has diminished to the point where only Prince Fielder hit that .300-30 plateau in 2012. In fact, only six first basemen managed to hit at least 20 home runs with a batting average over .280.
Simply put, there's not nearly as much "can't-miss" talent at the position as there used to be and a lot of fantasy owners are going to be forced to decide between a quartet of names, none of which seems to stand out from the pack, to hold down the proverbial fort at first. When you reach the middle rounds of the draft, somebody in your draft is going to be tasked with making the call between Ike Davis, Freddie Freeman, Paul Goldschmidt and Eric Hosmer.
2013 ProjectionsRHRRBISBBA
Ike Davis8633962.268
Freddie Freeman8527965.280
Paul Goldschmidt83268912.268
Eric Hosmer75227914.274

<THEAD>
</THEAD><TBODY>
</TBODY>


Just in case that somebody ends up being you, let me tell you there's no reason to hem and haw about it. Only one of these four players deserves inclusion in the first base top 10. His name is Paul Goldschmidt.
Not one of these guys is going to approach the .300-30 plateau that is a very realistic possibility for the three players who will end up being selected in the first round of your draft: Albert Pujols, Prince Fielder and Joey Votto. None of them has the positional flexibility that Buster Posey, Joe Mauer, Carlos Santana and Allen Craig have to offer. And in terms of "upside" -- a chance at 40 homers (Edwin Encarnacion) or a .315 batting average (Billy Butler, Adrian Gonzalez) -- you can't confidently expect it here.
In other words, this is the best of the rest and each comes with his own particular area of strength. The one that seems the most appealing to your eye at the point of the draft when you're ready to finally pull the trigger -- Rounds 8-10 -- will depend on what category your team seems to be lacking at that time.


I Need Batting Average
Freddie Freeman has demonstrated the best eye at the plate, with his BB/K rate on the rise from 0.37 in 2011 to 0.50 in 2012. Part of the reason for the increase there is that he's swinging at fewer bad pitches, lowering the percentage of pitches outside of the strike zone he's flailed away at by 4.4 percent in the past year. At the same time, his overall contact rate has risen, meaning he's putting more balls in play and they're better balls to begin with.
Detractors will point out that, in spite of all these positive peripherals, Freeman hit just .212 once September rolled around last year. But Freeman had suffered through eye problems all season, as well as a busted finger that caused his bat grip to suffer. Those problems presumably won't be present in 2013, and as such, Freeman's comfort level at the plate -- and his stats -- could be there all season long. But what if those eye issues do resurface?
I Need Power
There's no question that Ike Davis can knock the ball over the wall and the proof is in his HR/FB rate surge from 12.0 percent in 2010 to 21.1 percent last season. (We're ignoring the "lost season" of 2011 due to injury.) So certainly, another 30 home run season is very realistic to expect. The problem is that it might be all to expect.
Davis hit just .188 at Citi Field and only 11 of his 32 round-trippers caused the Home Run Apple to emerge from that hat in the outfield. In fact, Davis could not seem to hit left-handed pitching in any ballpark, with a .174 batting average and only a .335 slugging percentage. Even if he improves a bit in this department, the run production might be spotty if there's a repeat of his .214 batting average with runners in scoring position.
I Need Speed
Hosmer may not be the fastest player in baseball, but probably uses his speed "smarter" than most. In 2011, Hosmer finished the season tied for 196th in the league with seven infield hits. In 2012, he climbed into the overall top 50 in that category with 17. He's hitting far more ground balls -- all the way up to 53. 6 percent in 2012 -- and legging out more hits as a result, but that's also the reason to be leery of his fluctuating BABIP, which dropped from .314 in 2011 to .255 last year.
When it comes to steals, he chooses his spots more wisely, too. Hosmer was caught only once in 2012, after going 11-of-16 in stolen bases in 2011. But this may be a case of diminishing returns. As Hosmer proves himself to be more of someone to pay attention to on the basepaths, the less likely it will be that opposing pitchers ignore him to the point where he'll feel the urge to take off for second.
I Want It All
In each and every category, Paul Goldschmidt is not projected to be the No. 1 player in this foursome in any single one. Yet, he's the most likely of this quartet to end up finishing first in all five categories. Of all the players we've discussed, Goldschmidt's potential for growth seems to be the largest, perhaps for one reason alone: Chase Field.
It's not typically considered to be as stat-inflating as Coors Field's reputation, but Chase Field is ranked No. 6 in ESPN's Park Factor in terms of home runs, runs scored and overall hits. It's also the No. 4 park for hitting doubles and Goldschmidt was one of 15 players with 40 or more doubles in 2012. But here's the thing: Goldschmidt's 2012 breakout happened almost exclusively on the road.
2012R2BHRRBISBBAOBPSLGOPSTB
Home431810378.253.339.461.800111
Away3925104510.315.377.516.894141

<THEAD>
</THEAD><TBODY>
</TBODY>


Imagine what he might do in 2013 if he starts taking advantage of his Arizona environs to the fullest.
Could this be the second coming of Jeff Bagwell? Through Sunday's action, Goldschmidt was hitting .434 for the spring, and while none of that really matters -- after all, so too is outfielder Shane Robinson of the St. Louis Cardinals and nobody will be talking MVP with him anytime soon -- the truth is that the upside here is immense, with little in the way of reasons to avoid selecting the Diamondbacks' first baseman.
Paul Goldschmidt is the clear best choice from this group to fill out the top 10 at first base. After he's gone, the best bet is to grab the player whose one-category strength is most needed on your own individual roster, be it power (Davis), speed (Hosmer) or batting average (Freeman). However, if the rest of your league has left him out there for the taking and you're the last owner to grab your first baseman, you need to grab Goldschmidt immediately.
 

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Position battle updates

Many rotation spots up for grabs; potential platoon situations may be emerging

By Tristan H. Cockcroft | ESPN.com

Things change quickly in this game.

The past week proves that: If you drafted Chase Headley or Hanley Ramirez last Saturday, you're not very happy today. Both will miss multiple weeks of the regular season, and Ramirez more than a month.

But injuries aren't the only things that skew values in March. Spring training is a time of battles for jobs, and we're entering the final stages in which such decisions must be made made. Today, let's recap where the most compelling -- from a fantasy angle -- battles stand.


Cincinnati Reds fifth starter/closer: This should be called more "decision" than "battle," as this has always been Aroldis Chapman's eventual role. Thursday represented another mind-bending day in the Chapman conundrum -- starter or closer, closer or starter -- as the Cincinnati Enquirer's Paul Daugherty reported that the Reds were to announce that Chapman would close, only to have Reds general manager Walt Jocketty subsequently tell Reds reporter Mark Sheldon that no decision had been made nor would there be any announcement. This comes on the heels of Chapman's admission that he'd prefer to close, as well as Reds manager Dusty Baker's same stated preference, so the smart money is on Chapman occupying the ninth inning, the role in which he earned a No. 3 ranking among relief pitchers on our 2012 Player Rater. As it pertains to his fantasy value, it's a matter of shuffling categorical resources; we'd rank him only one round sooner as a closer, but he'd be a projected 37-save closer with more than a half-run lower ERA.

It's the alternatives at either spot whose values are in flux; Mike Leake is the fallback fifth starter, Jonathan Broxton the reliever signed to a three-year, $21-million contract this winter presumably to close. Broxton's value, outside of what might be 20-hold potential in leagues that reward those, would plummet in an eighth-inning role, much the way his strikeout rate has in recent years (13.50 K's per nine in 2009, 6.98 last year). Leake, meanwhile, would be back on the NL-only map, a potential $1-$3, late-round buy if Chapman closes. Trending toward: Chapman closing; prepare accordingly.

Detroit Tigers closer: Tabbed the team's closer during the winter, Bruce Rondon got off to a rocky start in spring training, allowing three runs, five hits and five walks in 3 2/3 innings of his first four Grapefruit League appearances, casting doubt in his manager, Jim Leyland, who told Jason Beck of MLBlogs.com last week that it was "possible" he'd rely on a closer-by-committee. Since then, however, Rondon has allowed one run on seven hits and two walks in six innings over six appearances, striking out nine, spawning more talk that he's "the guy." Leyland and the Tigers have been coy, but if the team has gone this far with Rondon atop their depth chart, there is little evidence he won't begin the year in that arrangement, which is why he's back up to 40th at his position in our rankings. Trending toward: Rondon, but for how long?


San Diego Padres second base: It has become a moot point, as the primary contenders, Jedd Gyorko and Logan Forsythe, now have a chance to both start, what with Chase Headley due to be out four to six weeks with a small fracture on the tip of his left thumb. Gyorko had been the leader, both in that the Padres all along seemed to want him to emerge victorious and that he's a .283/.309/.547 triple-slash spring hitter who appears major league ready. But there's a new wrinkle: Forsythe hasn't appeared in a Cactus League game since March 7 because of plantar fasciitis in his foot, opening the door for Alexi Amarista to potentially factor in the second-base race, per the San Diego Union-Tribune. If Forsythe is healthy -- and he's tentatively expected to return this weekend -- he'd man third with Gyorko at second, but if he's not, the Union-Tribune suggests Amarista would take second and Gyorko would slide to his drafted position of third. Either way, the upshot is that Gyorko is a safer, middle-infielder-in-mixed/second-base-in-NL-only investment with news he'll start somewhere, while NL-only sleeper-seekers need to read Forsythe's updates. Trending toward: Gyorko at second, Forsythe at third, until about May 1, then this battle might rekindle.

Detroit Tigers fifth starter: This one is dually compelling, first, because incumbent Rick Porcello has been the subject of trade rumors all winter, and second, because Jim Leyland insinuated on Tuesday that the Porcello-Drew Smyly "battle" is every bit a battle when he told the team's official website that "it's going to go down to the wire." Porcello and Smyly are both being prepped to handle 100-pitch workloads during the season's first week, meaning one of two things: The team has every intent to trade Porcello, or the team believes Smyly is the better choice. Both pitchers have excelled this spring, their combined ERAs 3.15 and K-to-walk ratios 10.00, so there's every reason to believe both could be in a big league rotation come April 1. The St. Louis Cardinals, San Diego Padres and Texas Rangers, after all, have been rumored to be interested in Porcello. Trending toward: Smyly winning, but Porcello also "winning" via a trade to a team with a stronger infield defense. Imagine the boost to their respective fantasy values if Smyly emerged in Detroit, with Porcello landing in St. Louis?

Minnesota Twins center field: After a Ruthian start to the Grapefruit League season -- he hit four home runs in a two-game span March 4 and 7, with an unofficial fifth in a March 6 exhibition against Puerto Rico -- Aaron Hicks' spring performance in his past nine games has been more "Hicksian." He's a .192/.300/.308 hitter with two stolen bases during that span; only Darin Mastroianni and his .429/.469/.607 triple-slash rates and seven steals in 13 total spring games is a remaining threat. Joe Benson (.151 AVG, 15 K in 53 AB) is effectively out of the running. Hicks' recent cooling might have a positive effect in fantasy: It'll temper his draft stock, which had soared because of the power outburst. Trending toward: Hicks was handed the job by most everybody outside the Twins' organization two weeks ago, but this one remains in the "undecided" class. He's the favorite, not the winner … yet.

Texas Rangers center field: Any Rangers offensive player is a potentially exciting fantasy pick, if only because of their stats-inflating home ballpark, but what makes contenders Craig Gentry and Leonys Martin all the more attractive sleeper picks is that both have enjoyed good springs. The problem, however, is that as players who hit from opposite sides, that breeds the potential for a plate appearance-suppressing straight platoon -- and it's an arrangement that makes sense if you knew Gentry batted .343/.425/.434 against left-handers in 2012. Martin lacks the steep platoon split that warrants such a partnership -- he had a 129-point differential leaning toward right-handers in Triple-A in 2011-12 combined -- so he'd be more intriguing pick if he could somehow emerge with the everyday role in these final 10 spring days. Trending toward: A straight platoon.

Colorado Rockies third base: A four-homer spring has prospect Nolan Arenado reportedly in the Rockies' plans, thanks in large part to Chris Nelson's struggles at the plate as well as the team's apparent preference to use .419-hitting (spring, that is) Jordan Pacheco in a utility role. Several sources indicate that Arenado could make the two-level jump from Double-A on Opening Day, though Rockies reporter Thomas Harding made an interesting case against the idea Tuesday: He noted that the victor of the third-base race would presumably bat eighth, a role that could be more challenging to a young power hitter because of the chance opponents might pitch around him with the pitcher's spot on deck. Do the Rockies agree? The answer is important in deep mixed and NL-only leagues, as the winner of this job could be anywhere from a $5 to $10 player in the latter … so long as it's a clear victor. Trending toward: It's unclear, probably should be Pacheco, and probably will be Nelson.

St. Louis Cardinals fifth starter: As with the Tigers' fifth starter battle, this one is dually compelling, first, because Keith Law's No. 21 prospect Shelby Miller is one of the two combatants, and second, because the Cardinals are one of the teams rumored to be interested in the aforementioned Porcello. Miller and Joe Kelly have pitched back-to-back in each of their past two appearances, with Miller by far the winner of their most recent game (4 shutout innings, compared with 4 runs on 8 hits in 3 innings for Kelly), though manager Mike Matheny has yet to declare a winner. Could one emerge by the next rotation turn -- somewhere between Sunday and Tuesday? Miller's prospective fantasy owners have to be rooting for him; he's the one with the best potential at $10-plus earnings. Trending toward: Miller; that this competition continues favors him, because he has the better stuff and it shows the team is taking his candidacy very seriously.

Los Angeles Dodgers fifth starter: From the onset of spring training, it was safe to assume that Clayton Kershaw and Zack Greinke, the latter if healthy, are the Nos. 1 and 2, and Josh Beckett and Chad Billingsley, again the latter if healthy, are 3 and 4. If so, that left four pitchers -- Ted Lilly, Hyun-Jin Ryu, Chris Capuano and Aaron Harang -- fighting for one opening or, again like Porcello, auditioning for a trade to another team. Now the fun starts, as we'll list those four pitchers' spring ERAs in ascending order: Ryu 4.41, Capuano 7.20, Harang 8.10 and Lilly 9.45. So-so performance diminishes the chances of a trade, Capuano and Harang the most-rumored such candidates, and it makes it likely the team will make final decisions based upon contracts and health. For instance, Ryu cost a $61.7 million, six-year investment, boosting his odds, while Lilly could be stashed on the disabled list citing his ongoing recovery from shoulder surgery. This is quickly shaping up as a "fool's gold" of position battles, every one of these candidates an NL-only rather than mixed option. Trending toward: Ryu a starter, and the Dodgers sporting one of the more expensive long relief corps in baseball.

Tampa Bay Rays fifth starter: There's a Roberto Hernandez of interest in Tampa Bay once more! The former Fausto Carmona is up against Jeff Niemann for the gig, and after a Thursday performance including six innings of one-run, three-hit, ground ball-generating goodness, Hernandez seemed to take a step forward in the race. "They're both looking very good," Rays manager Joe Maddon told the Tampa Bay Times. "We have some nice difficult decisions to make." The Times notes that no decision is imminent, so Hernandez and Niemann will each pitch again next week before the final call is made. Trending toward: Hernandez, and don't be so quick to dismiss him as an AL-only late-rounder, considering the relative pitching wizardry in Tampa Bay these past few years.

[h=3]Quick hitters
Arizona Diamondbacks fifth starter: With Tyler Skaggs optioned to Triple-A Reno on Monday, this one's down to Patrick Corbin versus Randall Delgado, and Corbin (3.68 ERA, 3.75 K/BB) thus far has the slight spring statistical advantage (5.25 and 4.00 for Delgado). NL-only owners still need to track the battle, but Corbin's experience -- it coming in Arizona, that is -- might provide the advantage.

Baltimore Orioles fifth starter: Jake Arrieta and Brian Matusz hold the advantage over Zach Britton and Steve Johnson, and Arrieta probably pulled ahead with his six-shutout-inning, nine-K, two-walk performance on Thursday. Still, there's a way the Orioles could get both leaders onto the roster -- that meaning besides No. 4 starter Chris Tillman suffering an injury setback: handing Arrieta this job and restoring Matusz to the lefty specialist role in which he pitched well late last year. Keep that in mind, if you're a fan of Matusz as an AL-only sleeper.

New York Yankees fifth starter: Back-to-back mediocre outings have dropped David Phelps behind Ivan Nova in the race, making it increasingly likely that Phelps will slot in the No. 6/injury fill-in starter -- a role the Yankees will surely need to call upon in-season. Phil Hughes (back) is due to make his Grapefruit League debut next week, so there's already enough health risk present in this rotation that Phelps warrants a final-round, $1-$2 AL-only bid.


Toronto Blue Jays second base: Though Emilio Bonifacio (.326/.367/.565 with 7 SB) has outplayed Maicer Izturis (.225/.295/.300) during the Grapefruit League, Izturis' defensive advantage could keep these two in a straight platoon to begin the year. In fact, manager John Gibbons admitted as such, telling The Globe and Mail, "It could turn out where we won't say, 'This guy is our second baseman.'" Still, Bonifacio should get at least half the playing time, more than enough to earn eligibility there, keeping him on the mixed-league bargain list.

St. Louis Cardinals second base: Matt Carpenter batted .299 during his minor league career, .294 for the Cardinals last year, and he has continued to hit for a high average -- .400, specifically -- this spring. That has put him in the lead for the starting second base gig, though it's interesting that both he and Daniel Descalso, his competition, have made starts at other positions in the past week. Descalso is shaping up as more the utilityman, meaning that Carpenter's stock has risen to the point where he's a worthy mixed-league late-rounder.

Cleveland Indians fourth and fifth starters: Zach McAllister (5.02 spring ERA) was named the fourth starter earlier this week, and there might have been some clarity on the fifth starter gig Thursday, as Trevor Bauer was optioned to Triple-A Columbus and Carlos Carrasco served up four runs on eight hits in five innings. As unbelievable as it might seem, Scott Kazmir (and his eight shutout spring innings) is probably in the lead, especially backed by manager Terry Francona's glowing reviews. Kazmir's command has long been a problem, but remember this: He has eight K's and one walk this spring. There's enough promise that he's worthy of a late-round gamble in AL-only formats.

[/h]
 

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[h=1]Bullpen breakdown of all 30 teams[/h][h=3]A look at who's in line to close and the next-in-line option(s)[/h]By Mike Sheets | Special to ESPN.com

As the saying goes, "It's not how you start; it's how you finish."

For relief pitchers, that sentiment certainly rings true. Finishing games -- whether it's pitching in middle relief or actually closing things out in the ninth inning -- is what these guys do. Of course, not all relievers are created equal, and that's what we're here to talk about. After all, some have more job security, some have better track records of health and others are, you know, better known for their facial hair than what they do on the mound (unfortunately, because he remains unsigned as he works his way back from Tommy John surgery, that's the only Brian Wilson reference you're gonna get).

The start of the regular season is less than a week away, so let's jump right in. Here's a team-by-team breakdown of every bullpen in baseball, with a focus on closers and the pecking order behind them.


i
[h=3]Arizona Diamondbacks[/h]
The closer: After notching 77 saves for the Diamondbacks over the past two seasons, J.J. Putz has plenty of stability as Arizona's ninth-inning man. Even at 36 years old, the right-hander's skills have remained sharp, as his K/9 (10.7) and BB/9 (1.8) rates were both terrific last year. While he has been relatively healthy the past few seasons, he does have elbow issues in his past and hasn't topped 60 innings in a season since 2007, so he does carry at least some risk.

Backup plan: David Hernandez is the clear-cut handcuff in Arizona. He has picked up 15 saves the past two years in relief of Putz, along with a 2.50 ERA, 1.02 WHIP and sterling 12.9 K/9 rate in 2012, so he can help your team even if he's not getting saves. His 25 holds last year also ranked top 10 in the National League. … Heath Bell is worth remembering only because of his experience in the ninth inning. He flamed out in Miami last year and is a long shot to hold any fantasy value in 2013.


i
[h=3]Atlanta Braves[/h]
The closer: Universally regarded as the top closer in fantasy, Craig Kimbrel has an average draft position of 38.6, according to ESPN's live draft results, which is several rounds higher than the next closer off the board (Jonathan Papelbon at 77.0). Many fantasy owners are uncomfortable drafting a closer that high, but Kimbrel finished last season as a top-10 player, saving 42 games last year with a 1.01 ERA, 0.65 WHIP and 116 strikeouts in 62 2/3 innings, so he's clearly worth a high investment.

Backup plan: Jordan Walden, acquired from the Angels over the offseason in the Tommy Hanson deal, saved 32 games as recently as 2011, but he was removed from the closer role early last season and never reclaimed the gig. Only 25, Walden could still have a bright future, but his declining fastball velocity and rising walk rate are concerns. Should Kimbrel suffer an injury, Walden might be behind Jonny Venters in the saves pecking order. The left-hander's 3.22 ERA and 1.52 WHIP last year were a disappointment compared to his first two seasons, but his performance in the second half (1.71 ERA, 1.18) should ease any concerns. … Eric O'Flaherty is another name to keep in mind if you're looking for holds; he has racked up 60 the past two seasons combined.


i
[h=3]Baltimore Orioles[/h]
The closer: Jim Johnson saved a major league-best 51 games in 2012. While he likely won't reach those heights again this season, he still has a firm hold on the closer gig in Baltimore, making him a relatively safe fantasy option. Unfortunately, he just doesn't miss enough bats (5.4 K/9 last year) to profile as a top-tier closer.

Backup plan: Pedro Strop was the Orioles' backup closer last year and will serve in the same role this season. That said, walks were a problem for him last year (5.0 BB/9), and he doesn't strike out enough hitters (7.9 K/9) to compensate, so there's no guarantee of long-term success should he be placed in the closer role. … Darren O'Day, who posted a 2.24 ERA and 0.94 WHIP with 69 K's in 67 innings last year, would be a far more intriguing option should the opportunity present itself. … Tommy Hunter is a long shot for any fantasy value, but he showed increased velocity after moving to the bullpen late last year and could work himself into some high-leverage innings in 2013.


i
[h=3]Boston Red Sox[/h]
The closer: The Red Sox acquired Joel Hanrahan from the Pirates in the offseason, and he'll immediately step into the closer role in Boston. While the right-hander has saved at least 36 games each of the past two seasons, his walk rate swelled to 5.4 in 2012, and Fenway Park could be a poor fit after last year's career-high 45.1 fly ball percentage. Hanrahan should have a long leash, but he's riskier than you might realize.

Backup plan: In the event Hanrahan's control issues continue, the Red Sox have a viable alternative in Andrew Bailey. Durability has long been an issue for the former Oakland closer, but when healthy, he has proven he can handle the ninth inning. … Koji Uehara, signed to a one-year deal in the offseason, held a 1.75 ERA and 0.64 WHIP in 36 innings last year. He carries health issues of his own, but he did briefly serve as Baltimore's closer in 2010 and could move up in the pecking order given Bailey's injury history. Alfredo Aceves saved 25 games for Boston last year, but we don't see them going down that road again.


i
[h=3]Chicago Cubs[/h]
The closer: Carlos Marmol is currently the unquestioned closer in Chicago, but how long will that last? The Cubs have reportedly told the reliever's agent to expect a trade at some point this season, and if/when that happens, there's no guarantee the hard-throwing right-hander will continue getting save chances in his new digs. His control issues went from bad (5.8 BB/9) in 2011 to worse (7.3 BB/9) last season, so the "blow-up risk" with Marmol is substantial whether he's in Chicago or elsewhere.

Backup plan: Signed to a two-year, $9.5 million contract in December, Kyuji Fujikawa figures to get the next crack at the closer gig if/when it becomes available. The Japanese import boasts an impressive résumé, which includes 202 career saves, a 1.36 ERA and 12.2 K/9 rate over his past six seasons in the Pacific League, though it's often difficult to determine how a pitcher's skills will translate to the major leagues. … Shawn Camp and James Russell could be dark horses for saves given that Marmol could be on his way out and Fujikawa is largely an unknown, but neither is draftable. … Rafael Dolis' brief look in the closer role last year didn't go well, so it's doubtful the Cubs would want to go that route again.


i
[h=3]Chicago White Sox[/h]
The closer: By most accounts, Addison Reed was a disappointment after taking over the closer job last May. While he saved 27 games, he finished the season with a 4.75 ERA and 1.36 WHIP, including a 5.63 ERA and 1.54 WHIP in the second half. That said, he's only 24 and posted a 12.9 K/9 rate and 1.7 BB/9 rate over his minor league career, so we still like his long-term upside. Plus, the fact the White Sox stuck with him through last year's struggles suggests they're committed to him in the ninth inning.

Backup plan: If Reed doesn't take a step forward in 2013, Matt Thornton figures to be next in line. The Pale Hose seem to prefer the southpaw in a setup role, though, so there are better handcuffs to take fliers on. Thornton has, however, been a consistent source of holds the past few seasons if that's helpful. … Frankly, it wouldn't be a surprise if Jesse Crain got the nod should Reed falter or get hurt, at least once he's healthy. Crain, who has been battling a groin issue this spring, also dealt with shoulder and oblique issues last season, but he posted a 2.44 ERA, 1.08 WHIP and 11.3 K/9 when healthy. … After a strong rookie campaign, Nate Jones could eventually work his way into the late innings.


i
[h=3]Cincinnati Reds[/h]
The closer: The initial plan this spring was to move Aroldis Chapman to the starting rotation, but the Reds announced in late March that he would be staying in the bullpen and handling the closing duties. We can debate whether this is really in the Reds' best interest, but Chapman saved 38 games for the Reds last year with a 1.51 ERA, 0.81 WHIP and 15.3 K/9 rate, so fantasy owners already know that, as a closer, he's one of the elite. The hard-throwing left-hander finished last season as the No. 3 closer and No. 16 player overall and deserves to be one of the first closers off the board.

Backup plan: The Reds are paying Jonathan Broxton $21 million over three years to be their primary setup man. His fantasy value will skyrocket if something happens to Chapman, but as things stand now, he's nothing more than a handcuff. After all, his 7.0 strikeout rate last year was a career low, so he won't do enough to help you if he's not getting saves. … Lefty Sean Marshall, who ceded the closer job to Chapman last May, gives the Reds yet another reliable late-inning option. He finished 2012 with a 2.51 ERA, 1.16 WHIP and 4.6 K/BB ratio, though he was more effective against left-handed batters (.173/.206/.196 versus lefties, 273/.344/.344 against righties).


i
[h=3]Cleveland Indians[/h]
The closer: At this time last year, there were questions about whether Chris Perez would be able hold on to the closer job in Cleveland. He answered those questions by saving a career-high 39 games, posting a career-best 2.5 BB/9 rate, and propelling his strikeout rate up to 9.2 (K's per 9) after it had fallen to 5.9 the previous year. While Perez has shown he has the skills needed to succeed in the closer role, he also has been rumored to be on the trade block. Perez had been battling a right shoulder strain this spring, but the shoulder is reportedly back to 100 percent, so he should be ready by Opening Day, barring any setbacks.

Backup plan: Given Perez's uncertain future, Vinnie Pestano, who sported a 2.57 ERA and 1.10 WHIP last year, is an intriguing option. In addition to potentially being in line for saves down the road, his 36 holds last season were second most in baseball. There's little doubt he would run with the closer job if it were handed to him. … After Pestano, guys like Joe Smith and Matt Albers will pitch some relevant relief innings, but neither profiles as a potential saves candidate.


i
[h=3]Colorado Rockies[/h]
The closer: Rafael Betancourt saved 31 games and posted a 2.81 ERA and 1.13 WHIP in his first full season as a closer, and he enters the 2013 season with a firm grip on the role. Fantasy owners should keep in mind, however, that the 37-year-old holds a mutual $4.25 million option for 2014, which he'll almost surely decline if he has another strong season. This means the Rockies may look to deal Betancourt at the deadline if they're struggling to compete in the National League West.

Backup plan: Rex Brothers is being groomed as the future ninth-inning man and could get a crack at the gig if Betancourt is traded. He throws hard and misses plenty of bats, though his 4.9 walk rate and .282/.376/.386 slash line versus right-handed batters last year are both red flags. … Offseason acquisition Wilton Lopez doesn't have the same strikeout potential (6.8 K/9 in his career), but his 1.6 career walk rate may make him a more reliable late-inning option for the Rockies. He also saved 10 games for the Astros last season, so the closer role isn't completely foreign to him.


i
[h=3]Detroit Tigers[/h]
The closer: Following Jose Valverde's implosion last season and eventual departure via free agency (he has yet to sign anywhere, but the Tigers have ruled out bringing him back), the closer job in Detroit is still somewhat up in the air. Rookie Bruce Rondon seems like the early favorite, but he still has plenty to prove. While the young right-hander throws gas and racked up 29 saves across three levels of the minors last year, he has pitched only eight innings above Double-A in his career (all at Triple-A), and often has trouble finding the plate (5.1 career minor league BB/9 rate). Rondon has plenty of upside in the ninth inning, but he also has plenty of risk.

Backup plan: Should the Tigers get gun-shy about handing the closer reins to a rookie, left-hander Phil Coke could make some sense. Yes, last year's 4.00 ERA and 1.65 WHIP were ugly, but he was 2-for-2 in save opportunities and allowed just one earned run in 10 postseason appearances (0.84 ERA) after replacing Valverde, which could still be fresh in manager Jim Leyland's mind. … Leyland said in the offseason that Joaquin Benoit wasn't a candidate to close, because he didn't think the right-hander could handle pitching back-to-back days. Even so, Benoit was impressive in 2012, boasting a 10.7 K/9 rate and 2.8 BB/9 rate in 73 appearances, so he could wind up being the team's best option. If nothing else, he's a valuable option in leagues that count holds, as he has finished top 10 in holds each of the past three seasons. … Octavio Dotel, the owner of 109 career saves, could enter the discussion at some point, as well. Finally, Al Alburquerque offers intriguing strikeout potential (13.5 K/9) and posted a 1.87 ERA and 1.13 WHIP in 56 2/3 innings with the Tigers over the past two seasons, but he'll need to improve his control (5.9 BB/9) if he's going to work himself into a more prominent role.


i
[h=3]Houston Astros[/h]
The closer: Jose Veras is the favorite to close games in Houston after inking a one-year, $2 million contract with the team in December, though his skill set certainly doesn't scream "closer." He strikes out more than a batter per inning but has poor control (4.9 career BB/9 rate) and isn't adept at keeping runners off base (1.51 WHIP last year). According to recent live draft data, he's the 34th relief pitcher being selected, on average, and is being drafted in just 11.3 percent of standard mixed leagues. In other words, Veras may be cheap, but sometimes you get what you pay for.

Backup plan: Unfortunately, in terms of proven late-inning commodities, there's little else in the Astros' cupboard. Wesley Wright is coming off a strong 2012 season, but he has trouble getting right-handed hitters out consistently. There's also not much in Hector Ambriz's profile that says he's worthy of the job. Josh Fields, the first pick in December's Rule 5 draft, has no big league experience, but he did save 13 games with a 12.0 K/9 between Double- and Triple-A last year in the Red Sox organization and seemingly corrected the control issues that plagued him early in his pro career. Given what's ahead of him, it's not crazy to think he could get a crack at some point. … Rhiner Cruz, a Rule 5 pick from last season, had a rough 2012 (6.05 ERA, 1.71 WHIP), but he showed some flashes late in the year and could eventually work his way into the late innings. On nearly any other team, Cruz wouldn't even be worth discussing, but in Houston he's at least a name worth knowing.


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[h=3]Kansas City Royals[/h]
The closer: The Royals handed Greg Holland the closer role after Jonathan Broxton was shipped to Cincinnati at last year's trade deadline, and he ran with it, racking up 16 saves along with a 2.17 ERA after the All-Star break. His 12.2 K/9 ranked top 10 among relievers with at least 30 innings. Last year's 1.37 WHIP and 4.6 BB/9 rate might be worrisome on the surface, but his improvement in the second half (1.07 WHIP, 3.4 BB/9) should ease some of those concerns.

Backup plan: While Holland should have some leash to work with, there are multiple arms behind him who could handle the ninth inning, if necessary. Kelvin Herrera, owner of a heater that averaged 98.5 mph last season, was reportedly a candidate to replace the departed Broxton last year, so he could get the first look should something happen to Holland. Aaron Crow, who could still theoretically return to the starting rotation sometime down the road, showed improvement in his second big league season and has the skills to succeed in the role, too. Southpaw Tim Collins may be a long shot for saves, but his K/9 rate shot up from 8.1 in 2011 to 12.0 in 2012, and he's effective against both righties and lefties, so he could have some AL-only value.


i
[h=3]Los Angeles Angels[/h]
The closer: The expectation is that Ryan Madson will step into the closer role when healthy, but as of now, he's still recovering from Tommy John surgery and won't be ready for Opening Day. This means Ernesto Frieri will open the season with the job. Frieri has his flaws, namely control issues and a high fly ball rate, but this is still a guy who saved 23 games in 2012 and finished the season with a 13.4 K/9 rate, not to mention a 2.32 ERA and 0.96 WHIP after being acquired from San Diego.

Backup plan: We still expect Madson to take over the closer job eventually, but nothing is set in stone. While Madson posted great numbers while accumulating 32 saves for the Phillies in 2011, many pitchers coming back from Tommy John surgery encounter control issues when they first return, and he still doesn't have a firm return date. It's possible -- maybe even likely -- that the Angels will ease Madson back into things instead of inserting him into the closer role immediately. And if Frieri is consistently locking things down in the ninth, who's to say they make a change at all? … Scott Downs shared the closer role with Frieri for a time last year, so he's likely third in the pecking order, though fellow lefty Sean Burnett was signed this offseason and has a similar skill set. … Kevin Jepsen is a long shot for saves, as well.


i
[h=3]Los Angeles Dodgers[/h]
The closer: The Dodgers gave Brandon League "closer money" over the offseason -- three years, $22.5 million, with incentives that could push it up to $33.5 million -- so the job is his to lose. League doesn't have elite stuff by any means, as his career K/9 rate sits at just 6.7, but he generates plenty of ground balls, has 52 saves the past two seasons, and held a 2.30 ERA and 1.13 WHIP in 28 games with the Dodgers last year. Given the money invested, the former Mariner should have a long leash.

Backup plan: Many fantasy owners are skeptical about League's ability to hold the closer job all season, and most of that skepticism stems from their belief in setup man Kenley Jansen. Jansen is the superior pitcher in nearly every regard. In addition to notching 25 saves for the Dodgers in 2012, he sported a 2.35 ERA, 0.85 WHIP and 13.7 K/9. Don't reach for Jensen with the assumption that he'll eventually be closing out games, because he could very well stay in the setup role all season. That said, should he get the job, he does have elite potential. … Ronald Belisario is probably best equipped to be ninth-inning option No. 3, though the Dodgers have to be hoping it doesn't come to that.


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[h=3]Miami Marlins[/h]
The closer: The Marlins may have shipped off most of their useful parts over the offseason, but closer Steve Cishek, who racked up 15 saves last year following Heath Bell's implosion, remains in South Beach. While he's far from being a household name, he could be one of the better closer values in fantasy. Last year's 4.1 BB/9 rate wasn't great, but he struck out 9.6 hitters per nine innings and limits home runs, so he should perform well enough to stay in the role.

Backup plan: Jon Rauch figures to handle the eighth inning and could vulture a save here or there when Cishek is unavailable. The 6-foot-11 right-hander spent time in the closer role for both the Twins and Blue Jays in 2010 and 2011, respectively, so he has the experience to step in, if needed. … Left-hander Mike Dunn misses bats but does little else well, so we won't see him in the ninth inning unless multiple injuries strike.


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[h=3]Milwaukee Brewers[/h]
The closer: John Axford remains the closer in Milwaukee, though 2012 was a tumultuous season, to say the least. He walked 5.1 batters per nine innings, allowed a whopping 10 home runs and was temporarily removed from the closer role. On the bright side, he still whiffed hitters at a high rate (12.1 K/9) and converted 17 of his last 18 save opportunities. Axford has proven he can get the job done, but the road getting there is often bumpy. Backup plan: Should last year's walk and home run issues strike again, the Brewers may decide to go in another direction. Jim Henderson, who made his first big league appearance last year as a 29-year-old, has big-time strikeout ability (13.2 K/9 in 36 games last year), though, like Axford, walks can sometimes be a problem. Still, Henderson was the guy who stepped in last year when Axford was briefly demoted, so he could be asked to do the same in 2013 if the need arises. … Lefty Mike Gonzalez was a highly regarded closer once upon a time, making him a potential dark horse for saves should Axford falter.


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[h=3]Minnesota Twins[/h]
The closer: Glen Perkins figures to be the primary closer for the Twins in 2013. He shared the role with Jared Burton for a while last year after Matt Capps was shut down with a shoulder injury, but the left-hander received every one of the team's save chances from Aug. 5 on, finishing with 15 saves on the year. Currently being drafted as the 25th reliever off the board, Perkins was terrific in 2012, boasting a 9.9 K/9 rate and 2.1 BB/9 rate to go with his 2.56 ERA and 1.04 WHIP. He could be one of this year's better bargains.

Backup plan: Burton dramatically improved his walk rate last year after missing nearly the entire 2011 season due to a shoulder injury, and the result was a career-best 2.18 ERA and 0.92 WHIP. He could conceivably get another crack at saving games this year, particularly against right-handed heavy lineups, but he can still help fantasy teams even if he spends the whole year in a setup role. Casey Fien made a strong impression in his 35 appearances with the Twins last year, posting a 3.6 K/BB ratio along with a 2.06 ERA and 0.97 WHIP. Look for him to become a more integral piece of the bullpen this season.


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[h=3]New York Mets[/h]
The closer: With Frank Francisco unlikely to be ready for Opening Day due to an elbow injury, Bobby Parnell will be asked to hold down the ninth inning. Parnell isn't a dominant pitcher, as evidenced by his career 8.3 K/9 rate, but he saved seven games in relief of Francisco in 2012 and significantly knocked down his walk rate from the year before (4.1 to 2.6), so there's value here as long as he has the job.

Backup plan: The expectation is that Francisco will get the closer job back once he's healthy, but if Parnell is pitching well, it might be hard for the Mets to justify making a change, other than the fact they're paying Francisco $6.5 million this year to close games. While the 33-year-old notched 23 saves last year, his 5.53 ERA and 1.61 WHIP tell more of the story. Like last year, Francisco could net your team some saves, but he could very well damage your ERA and WHIP in the process. … Brandon Lyon probably shouldn't be closing games either, though he's probably more reliable than Francisco at this point. The former Astros closer fared quite well after being traded to Toronto last year, posting a 2.88 ERA and 1.12 WHIP in 30 games.


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[h=3]New York Yankees[/h]
The closer: The all-time saves leader is back! After missing nearly the entire 2012 season with a torn ACL in his right knee, Mariano Rivera is giving it a go one last time before he retires. He may be 43 years old coming off a major injury, but conventional wisdom can't be applied here. Every pitcher carries at least some risk, and Mo is no different, but he's still as good a bet as any to finish the year as a top-5 closer.

Backup plan: With Rafael Soriano out of the picture, David Robertson is now the unquestioned go-to guy after Rivera. Even if he never leaves the setup role, Robertson strikes out enough hitters (12.2 K/9 rate last year) and helps enough in ERA and WHIP to have fantasy value. Fantasy owners who need holds should also take note, as he has topped 30 holds each of the past two seasons and should again be near the top of the standings in 2013. … Joba Chamberlain doesn't figure to hold significant fantasy value this year, but he could once again be an integral part of the Yankees' bullpen. He made 22 appearances last year after returning from Tommy John surgery, and while he struggled initially, he seemingly found his groove in September (2.19 ERA, 0.89 WHIP, 11.7 K/9).


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[h=3]Oakland Athletics[/h]
The closer: Assuming he's healthy, Grant Balfour is the ninth-inning man for the A's. He's recovering from offseason knee surgery but is on track to be ready to go when the season starts. The right-hander did lose the closer role to Ryan Cook early on in 2012, but he reclaimed the gig in mid-August and converted all 17 of his save opportunities the rest of the way. While the strong finish is encouraging, Balfour sometimes struggles with consistency, and last year proved the A's aren't shy about pulling the plug if the going gets rough, so he's not the most stable of closer options. It's also worth noting that Balfour will be a free agent after the season, and the A's haven't been afraid to trade their closers in the past.

Backup plan: Cook may have saved 11 games for Oakland last season, but he still was unable to keep the job, eventually conceding the ninth-inning role back to Balfour. That's not to say Cook won't get another look if Balfour encounters more struggles in 2013, though. He finished the year with a 2.09 ERA, 0.94 WHIP and 80 K's in 73 innings, including a much-improved 1.5 BB/9 rate in the second half (4.9 BB/9 before the break), so the skills are there. … While Sean Doolittle is third in the pecking order, he shouldn't necessarily be ignored. In addition to being a great holds contributor, the southpaw showed great strikeout ability (11.4 K/9), limited walks (2.1 BB/9) and held right-handed hitters to a .195/.244/.242 slash line last year. He could move up the ranks as the season wears on.


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[h=3]Philadelphia Phillies[/h]
The closer: Jonathan Papelbon has saved at least 31 games in seven straight seasons, and he notched 38 last year in his first season in Philadelphia while sporting a 5.1 strikeout-to-walk ratio with a 2.31 ERA and 1.06 WHIP. He's one of the safest two or three closers in baseball, but he's also being drafted, on average, in the seventh round, so you're going to have to pay handsomely for his services.

Backup plan: Mike Adams, signed to a two-year, $12 million contract over the offseason, will serve as the primary setup man and would step into the closer role should something happen to Papelbon. The right-hander has just four saves in his career, but there's little reason to think he couldn't fill the closer role ably, even with a declining strikeout rate that fell to 7.7 last year. At the very least, he's a tremendous source of holds, with 97 over the past three years, the most in baseball. … Antonio Bastardo should help out in the holds department, as well. He racked up 26 last year and also provides plenty of strikeouts (81 in 52 innings in 2012).


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[h=3]Pittsburgh Pirates[/h]
The closer: Joel Hanrahan is out after being dealt to the Red Sox, and Jason Grilli is in. The 36-year-old has saved only five games in his career, but he should be able to handle the ninth inning just fine. Last year's career-high 13.8 K/9 rate was the fourth-best mark in baseball, thanks partly to improved velocity on his fastball, and his 3.4 BB/9 rate was also a career best. He did seem to fade down the stretch last year (6.52 ERA, 1.40 WHIP in September), which is a slight concern given his age. However, as the 21st reliever off the board, according to ESPN's live draft data, he looks to be one of this year's better closer values.

Backup plan: Mark Melancon's first -- and only -- season in Boston was a disaster, but he gets a fresh start in Pittsburgh, where he'll be the setup man behind Grilli. Keep in mind, Melancon saved 20 games for the Astros in 2011 along with a 2.78 ERA and 1.22 WHIP, and many of his underlying numbers last year were actually better than what he did in 2012, so there's reason for optimism. Should Grilli struggle in the closer role, Melancon could be a very cheap source of saves. … The 6-7 Jared Hughes could be third on the totem pole, but it's yet to be seen what kind of upside he has.


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[h=3]San Diego Padres[/h]
The closer: The closer role in San Diego belongs to Huston Street. The trouble is, he's rarely healthy enough to keep the job all season long; he has spent time on the DL each of the past three years. Street is an effective closer when he's on the mound, and last season's 10.9 strikeout rate was his best mark since 2007 with Oakland, but it's good to have an insurance plan if you roster him.

Backup plan: Because of Street's injury history, setup man Luke Gregerson is a good bet to tally at least a handful of saves in 2013 (he had nine last year in Street's absence). After his strikeout rate collapsed in 2011 (5.5 K/9), Gregerson rebounded last year (9.0 K/9) and went on to post a career-low 2.39 ERA. He's also a good bet for holds; he accumulated 24 last year, and his 40 holds in 2010 are a major league record. … Dale Thayer racked up seven saves himself last season when Street was on the DL, though Gregerson got all of the Padres' save chances over the final month of the season. Ultimately, we expect Gregerson to get the first crack at the ninth inning if/when Street gets hurt this year, but Thayer could once again work himself into the mix.


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[h=3]San Francisco Giants[/h]
The closer: Manager Bruce Bochy still seems somewhat hesitant about relying on Sergio Romo as his full-time closer, as he wants to keep the reliever's workload down in 2013. Fantasy owners may not like to hear that, but in Bochy's defense, the diminutive right-hander has topped 55 innings only once in his big league career, and he threw his slider nearly 62 percent of the time last year, according to FanGraphs.com, which can be very taxing on a pitcher's arm. Romo has all of the skills to be one of fantasy's top closers -- his 1.79 ERA, 0.85 WHIP and 6.3 K/BB ratio last year all speak to that -- but his upside could be held in check depending on how Bochy handles him.

Backup plan: Santiago Casilla served as the Giants' closer for an extended period of time last year -- his 25 saves led the team -- before eventually relinquishing the job to Romo, so he appears to be next in line. Aside from a rough stretch in June and July last year, Casilla was very effective, so he's not a bad guy to stash if you're a Romo owner. … That said, left-hander Javier Lopez makes things a little more complicated. While right-handed hitters give him fits (they hit .417 against him last year), Bochy isn't afraid to turn to Lopez in the ninth inning against left-handed heavy lineups, as evidenced by his seven saves in 2012. Lopez doesn't do enough elsewhere to be a real fantasy option, but he could vulture a few saves again this season.


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[h=3]Seattle Mariners[/h]
The closer: Tom Wilhelmsen is solidified in the closer role after being handed the reins to the ninth inning last June and saving 29 games in 34 opportunities. The 29-year-old misses bats (9.9 K/9 rate), induces ground balls (48.3 percent) and doesn't hand out too many free passes (3.3 BB/9). Aside from not having a long, proven track record, he's a solid closer option even though he's being drafted as just the 23rd reliever overall.

Backup plan: There's currently no clear-cut option behind Wilhelmsen. Stephen Pryor throws smoke and should have a role in the late innings, though he has only 23 big league innings under his belt and held a 5.1 walk rate in those 23 innings (not to mention a 4.7 BB/9 rate in 123 minor league innings), so he has work to do. … Like Pryor, Carter Capps' big league experience is sparse (25 innings), but he has better control (2.9 minor league BB/9 rate) in addition to a strong strikeout rate (12.5 K/9 in the minors; 10.1 in the majors). He may be the better bet if you're looking for Wilhelmsen's handcuff. … Left-hander Charlie Furbush, who posted a 2.72 ERA and 0.95 WHIP last year in his first full season as a reliever, can get both right- and left-handed hitters out, but he's a long shot for save chances.


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[h=3]St. Louis Cardinals[/h]
The closer: Jason Motte is the "guy" when healthy -- on average, he has been the third closer off the board, according to live draft results -- but he's expected to begin the season on the disabled list after suffering a mild strain in his pitching elbow. He'll return to the closer role when he's 100 percent, but as of this writing, there's no timetable for his return. In Motte's absence, Mitchell Boggs will handle the closing duties. Boggs is largely inexperienced in the role (only four career saves), but he should fill in adequately and deserves to be drafted in all formats.

Backup plan: With Motte's timetable uncertain and Boggs unproven in the ninth inning, Trevor Rosenthal is a guy to keep an eye on. While his long-term future may still lie in the starting rotation, he has proven he can be a dominant reliever. In 22 2/3 innings with the Cardinals last season, he and his high-90s fastball held a 2.78 ERA and 0.93 WHIP to go along with a 3.6 strikeout-to-walk ratio. There's definite sleeper potential here. … Edward Mujica isn't as exciting as the 22-year-old Rosenthal, but he has a longer track record and possesses great control (his walk rate hasn't surpassed 1.6 any of the past three years), so he could work his way into the discussion if Boggs can't hold things down until Motte returns.


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[h=3]Tampa Bay Rays[/h]
The closer: Fernando Rodney was arguably the biggest surprise in baseball last season. He posted a 0.60 ERA and 0.78 WHIP along with 48 saves and even garnered some Cy Young award attention. Needless to say, he'll once again handle the ninth inning for Tampa this season. We can't expect the 36-year-old to repeat last year's dominance, but the fact he improved his walk rate from 7.9 in 2011 to 1.8 last year tells us he turned a corner last year. As strange as it may sound, Rodney enters this season as one of the most trustworthy closers.

Backup plan: Jake McGee looks to be the Rays' closer of the future, and it's easy to see why after he sported a 1.95 ERA, 0.80 WHIP and 6.6 K/BB ratio in his first full season. He may not get any save opportunities this season, but he can still provide useful numbers in a setup role. In addition, McGee is someone to keep in mind for keeper leagues, as Rodney is a free agent after this year. … That said, Joel Peralta, who led baseball with 37 holds last season, could very well be the one to take over the ninth inning should something happen to Rodney. Although the long ball can sometimes be a problem, he posted an 11.3 K/9 and 2.3 BB/9 in 67 innings last year and could hold down the job, if needed. … Kyle Farnsworth, who tallied 25 saves for Tampa in 2011, is still on the team after missing significant time last year because of an elbow injury, but he's too far down in the pecking order right now to be relevant in fantasy.


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[h=3]Texas Rangers[/h]
The closer: Joe Nathan may be 38 years old, but you wouldn't know it from the numbers he put up last year. In addition to whiffing 10.9 hitters per nine innings, his 37 saves ranked fifth in the AL, and his 1.8 walk rate and 6.0 K/BB ratio were both career bests. He has tons of job security in Texas, so aside from his age, there's little reason not to trust him as a top-10 closer.

Backup plan: Jason Frasor, who signed a one-year deal with Texas in the offseason, is coming off a rough season in Toronto in which he held a 4.12 ERA and 1.47 WHIP and missed time because of a forearm injury. On the bright side, he did strike out 10.9 hitters per nine, which was a career best. With Joakim Soria working his way back from Tommy John surgery, Frasor will open the season as the primary setup man and handcuff to Nathan. … Barring any setbacks, Soria could return to action in May, though the Rangers may not feel comfortable trusting him as their eighth-inning guy right away. His health and performance should determine his role as the season goes on. … With Frasor coming off a down season and Soria on the DL, Tanner Scheppers could have a prominent role in the bullpen this year, though he still has plenty to prove at the big league level.


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[h=3]Toronto Blue Jays[/h]
The closer: Casey Janssen's status for the start of the season had been in doubt as he recovered from offseason shoulder surgery, but he made his first spring training appearance on March 22 and now looks on track to begin the season in the closer role, barring any setbacks between now and Opening Day. Janssen posted a 2.54 ERA and 0.86 WHIP with 22 saves for the Jays last year, and assuming full health, he has the skills to hold down the job.

Backup plan: With Janssen's outlook looking more and more positive, Sergio Santos, who underwent season-ending shoulder surgery in July, figures to be used in a setup role. That said, Santos saved 30 games for the White Sox in 2011 and was acquired by Toronto last offseason to serve as the team's closer (injuries limited him to only six appearances), so he could very well take over the gig at some point in 2013. … Steve Delabar, acquired from Seattle at the trade deadline last year, still has work to do, as he allows too many home runs (1.6 HR/9 last year) and posted a 4.6 BB/9 after joining the Blue Jays last year. However, last season's 12.6 strikeout rate suggests he could be a dominant late-inning option if he improves his control and learns to limit the long ball.


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[h=3]Washington Nationals[/h]
The closer: The Nationals appeared to be set in the late innings with Drew Storen and Tyler Clippard, but Rafael Soriano was still brought in on a two-year, $28 million contract to take over the ninth inning. Even with Storen and Clippard behind him, Soriano has plenty of job security because of the financial investment the Nats made to bring him in. Soriano has netted 87 saves in his past two full seasons as closer (2010 and 2012) and should have no shortage of opportunities in Washington.

Backup plan: Storen saved 43 games with a 2.75 ERA and 1.02 WHIP in 2011 and eventually reclaimed the closer job from Tyler Clippard in September after missing roughly half the season while recovering from elbow surgery, so he should be the next in line for saves should the 33-year-old Soriano get hurt. At the very least, Storen should rack up plenty of holds this year, but his value obviously takes a huge hit in standard formats with Soriano now in the fold. … The same goes for Clippard. While he racked up 32 saves last season in Storen's absence, his value is limited in the new bullpen hierarchy.
 

hacheman@therx.com
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Closer Chart

[h=4]Fantasy bullpen organization chart (last updated March 26)[/h]The chart below breaks down all 30 major-league teams' bullpens in terms of relievers' proximity to the closer role, not their overall fantasy value. Teams are listed in alphabetical order.
"Closer" is either that team's officially designated closer, or the pitcher most likely to get the team's next save chance. "Next in line" is the pitcher next-most likely to take over if something happens to the closer, or the one who might get any save chances on the closer's nights off. "Stealth" is a dark-horse candidate for saves, for those digging deep. These pitchers typically don't pose an imminent threat to the closer's job security, but might, given time. "Looming" is a pitcher who has his sights set on the closer role but whose circumstances might currently prevent him from doing so. Generally speaking, usual closers who are on hurt and/or on the disabled list (designated as "Inj." or "DL"), bereavement list ("BL") or restricted list ("RL"), closer-worthy pitchers currently working out of the rotation, specialists (especially lefties) or "next in line" options presently in the minors fit the description.
For a PDF cheat sheet version of this chart, click here.
Team <CENTER>Closer </CENTER><CENTER>Next in line </CENTER><CENTER>Stealth </CENTER><CENTER>Looming </CENTER>
ari.gif
J.J. Putz David Hernandez Heath Bell Brad Ziegler
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Craig Kimbrel Jonny Venters Jordan Walden Eric O'Flaherty
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Jim Johnson Pedro Strop Darren O'Day Tommy Hunter
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Joel Hanrahan Andrew Bailey Koji Uehara Daniel Bard
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Carlos Marmol Kyuji Fujikawa James Russell Shawn Camp
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Addison Reed Matt Thornton Nate Jones Jesse Crain
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Aroldis Chapman Jonathan Broxton Sean Marshall J.J. Hoover
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Chris Perez Vinnie Pestano Matt Albers Cody Allen
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Rafael Betancourt Rex Brothers Wilton Lopez Matt Belisle
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Bruce Rondon Phil Coke Joaquin Benoit Octavio Dotel
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Jose Veras Wesley Wright Hector Ambriz Josh Fields
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Greg Holland Aaron Crow Tim Collins Kelvin Herrera
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Ernesto Frieri Scott Downs Kevin Jepsen Ryan Madson (Inj.)
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Brandon League Kenley Jansen Ronald Belisario Matt Guerrier
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Steve Cishek Jon Rauch Mike Dunn A.J. Ramos
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John Axford Mike Gonzalez Jim Henderson Tom Gorzelanny
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Glen Perkins Jared Burton Alex Burnett Casey Fien
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Bobby Parnell Brandon Lyon Josh Edgin Frank Francisco (Inj.)
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Mariano Rivera David Robertson Joba Chamberlain David Aardsma
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Grant Balfour Ryan Cook Sean Doolittle Chris Resop
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Jonathan Papelbon Mike Adams Antonio Bastardo Phillippe Aumont
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Jason Grilli Mark Melancon Jared Hughes Tony Watson
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Mitchell Boggs Trevor Rosenthal Edward Mujica Jason Motte (Inj.)
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Huston Street Luke Gregerson Dale Thayer Brad Boxberger
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Sergio Romo Santiago Casilla Javier Lopez Jeremy Affeldt
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Tom Wilhelmsen Stephen Pryor Carter Capps Lucas Luetge
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Fernando Rodney Joel Peralta Jake McGee Kyle Farnsworth
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Joe Nathan Jason Frasor Robbie Ross Joakim Soria (Inj.)
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Casey Janssen Sergio Santos Steve Delabar Esmil Rogers
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Rafael Soriano Drew Storen Tyler Clippard Craig Stammen

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hacheman@therx.com
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[h=1]Fantasy value of lineup positions[/h][h=3]Extra plate appearances key to providing more counting stats

By Tristan H. Cockcroft | ESPN.com

Lost among the past week's headlines, which included Shelby Miller's selection as the St. Louis Cardinals' No. 5 starter, Jason Motte's impending DL status due to an elbow injury and the trade of Vernon Wells to the New York Yankees, were two announcements every bit as relevant to fantasy owners.

Houston Astros manager Bo Porter told his team's official website that Jose Altuve would be his leadoff hitter for 2013, while Los Angeles Angels manager Mike Scioscia told his team's official website that Erick Aybar will get "first crack" to serve as the No. 2 hitter to begin the season.


It's understandable why the first three headlines catch your attention: They involved a top prospect winning a prominent major league role, a top-five closer missing a portion of the season and therefore ceding his saves to someone else, and … um … OK, everyone's favorite contract whipping-boy moving to a team under arguably the greatest scrutiny of any in professional sports. These are developments with immediate impact in fantasy baseball.

The latter two headlines, meanwhile, involve lineup positioning, one of those facets of the game with a wide array of opinions. Many analysts have debated both what constitutes an "optimal" lineup, and whether lineup positioning matters at all. Fantasy owners, meanwhile, tend to make their own assumptions: This is what breeds the popular preseason question, "How is Giancarlo Stanton going to see anything good to hit in that Miami Marlins lineup?"

To be clear up front, it is not the goal of this column to rekindle the batting-order debate. Rather, its purpose is to illustrate the impact of lineup positioning on individual hitters' fantasy value, specifically as it pertains to counting stats such as runs and RBIs. We could discuss for weeks whether Aybar, he of the .320 career on-base percentage, is the right choice to bat second; the point here is what batting second means for his 2013 fantasy prospects.

There are two obvious reasons that a player's lineup spot drives his runs and RBIs: plate appearances and strength of offense.

With plate appearances, simply put, the number of times a hitter comes to the plate has a bearing on his fantasy statistics. A hitter cannot register a hit, a home run, a run scored (other than if he's used as a pinch runner) or an RBI without coming to the plate, and while a hitter can exercise some control over hits and home runs, he has less influence over runs and RBIs. Those are team-influenced statistics, so the best way to neutralize some of the "luck" factors involved is to try to get the player with the most PAs, meaning more chances at a run or RBI.


[h=4]PAs BY LINEUP SPOT (2009-12)[/h]PA/G is the average number of plate appearances per game from the indicated lineup spot across MLB. R+RBI/G is runs plus RBIs minus two times home runs per game from the indicated lineup spot.
<CENTER>#</CENTER><CENTER>PA/G</CENTER><CENTER>R+RBI/
G</CENTER>
14.670.833
24.560.839
34.460.867
44.350.839
54.250.775
64.140.680
74.030.652
83.910.614
93.790.524

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The chart to the right shows the average plate appearances per game by lineup spot for the past four seasons combined (2009-12) -- that sample covering all seasons with available data in our pitch-tracking tool -- as well as the average number of runs plus RBIs minus two times home runs per game for that respective spot. (The reason for runs plus RBIs minus two times homers: Extracting the runs/RBIs on home runs isolates only those runs and RBIs that required team assistance.)

This is one explanation for how Yonder Alonso and Marco Scutaro, who had similar on-base and slugging percentages and played an almost-identical number of games in 2012, had a such a wide disparity in runs scored (Scutaro led 87-47) and RBIs (Scutaro again led, 74-62). Scutaro made all but eight of his 149 starts in either the Nos. 1 or 2 lineup spots, while Alonso made all 144 of his between the Nos. 3 and 7 spots (and 102 of those specifically in the 5-6 spots), and that led to Scutaro accruing 64 more plate appearances than Alonso.

Strength of offense, meanwhile, also has a bearing -- including on the aforementioned Alonso/Scutaro example. Besides the obvious fact that higher-scoring teams inflate their individual hitters' runs scored and RBI totals -- both the Colorado Rockies and San Francisco Giants, Scutaro's two teams, scored at least 67 more runs than the San Diego Padres in 2012 -- higher-scoring teams also turn the lineup over more. The more times through the lineup, the more PAs for individuals, and, again, therefore more chances for runs and RBIs. This is how Scutaro managed 64 more PAs, rather than the 45-50 or differential that the above chart would've indicated.


[h=4]PAs BY TEAM STRENGTH (2009-12)[/h]PA/G is the average number of plate appearances per game for the teams that scored the indicated number of runs in the given season.
Runs<CENTER>PA/G</CENTER>
851 or more4.36
801-8504.30
776-8004.30
751-7754.28
726-7504.26
701-7254.25
676-7004.21
651-6754.20
626-6504.20
601-6254.17
600 or fewer4.13

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The chart to the right shows the average number of trips through the lineup for teams that met specific runs-scored benchmarks in any season from 2009-12. For instance, it shows that teams that scored 751-775 runs in any of those seasons averaged 4.28 trips through the lineup. And while you might note that a 0.23 differential between 850-plus and 600-or-below teams might not seem like much, keep in mind that equates to just over two team PAs per game.

This is where the Giancarlo Stanton question becomes relevant. His Marlins team will probably struggle to surpass 600 runs, ranking among the weakest offensive teams in baseball, meaning fewer overall trips through the lineup. Sub-600-run teams in the past four seasons averaged 706 PAs from their No. 3 hitters, or 4.36 per game. That matched the 4.36 PAs he averaged in his 14 complete games as a No. 3 hitter for last year's Marlins … a 609-run team that led to a disappointing 86-RBI season for Stanton.

Stanton's detractors this season hint that, with no threatening bat behind him in the lineup, he'll be constantly pitched around. Again, this isn't meant a detailed study of "lineup protection," nor would it be easy to prove that's what's going to happen to him. But to make two counterpoints: A quick examination of players slotted one spot ahead of any of the 25 worst individual Nos. 4 or 5 lineup spots (in terms of slugging percentage) from 2009-12 showed that they saw only 2.6 percent fewer fastballs than the league average and 1.5 percent fewer pitches overall in the strike zone, yet managed an OPS 31 points greater than league average. In addition, only three times during the 162-game-schedule era did a player for a 100-loss team walk at least 100 times -- Rusty Staub, 110 for the 1969 Montreal Expos; Cal Ripken Jr., 102 for the 1988 Baltimore Orioles; and Adam Dunn, 116 for the 2009 Washington Nationals -- and no player has ever been intentionally walked as many as 20 times for a 100-loss team. There's every bit as compelling evidence that trips to the plate, not lineup protection, is his greatest challenge in 2013.

Returning the discussion to Altuve and Aybar, and combining the impact of lineup position and team strength on PAs, let's look at the relative differences between high and low spots in extremely potent or poor offenses. (This time, let's add runs minus home runs per game and RBIs minus home runs per game to the equation.)

<STYLE type=text/css>.mod-inline td img {margin: 0px;}</STYLE>
<CENTER>PA/G</CENTER><CENTER>R+RBI
/G</CENTER>
<CENTER>R/G</CENTER><CENTER>RBI/G</CENTER>
Top 5 in runs, No. 1 spot4.750.9170.5910.325
Top 5 in runs, No. 2 spot4.640.9620.5550.407
Top 5 in runs, No. 3 spot4.540.9600.4680.491
Top 5 in runs, No. 4 spot4.430.9710.4360.534
Top 5 in runs, No. 5 spot4.320.8660.4090.456
Top 5 in runs, No. 6 spot4.220.7490.3660.383
Top 5 in runs, No. 7 spot4.110.7460.3550.392
Top 5 in runs, No. 8 spot3.990.6820.3440.338
Top 5 in runs, No. 9 spot3.860.6490.3380.311
Bottom 5 in runs, No. 1 spot4.580.7660.5040.262
Bottom 5 in runs, No. 2 spot4.480.7370.4410.295
Bottom 5 in runs, No. 3 spot4.380.7760.3670.409
Bottom 5 in runs, No. 4 spot4.280.7370.3170.420
Bottom 5 in runs, No. 5 spot4.180.6790.3270.352
Bottom 5 in runs, No. 6 spot4.060.5850.2820.303
Bottom 5 in runs, No. 7 spot3.940.5650.2700.295
Bottom 5 in runs, No. 8 spot3.820.5210.2630.258
Bottom 5 in runs, No. 9 spot3.690.4200.2210.199

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This is where Aybar would clearly benefit by nabbing that No. 2 spot; remember that he made 92 of his 137 starts last season in the bottom third of the order. Even on an average top-five offense -- and, remember, the Angels were top-five in 2012 -- a bottom-third hitter (spots 7-9 combined) got 0.270 runs/RBIs less team assistance than a No. 2 hitter did the past four seasons. That would represent a whopping 38 additional runs plus RBIs that weren't the product of home runs, for a player who appeared in the 141 games that Aybar did in 2012. (Breaking it down individually, it'd be 21 additional runs compared to 17 extra RBIs.)

As for Altuve, batting leadoff for one of the worst teams in all of baseball at least gives him a fighting chance to come to the plate five times a night, as well as for his team to plate him at least once every other night. Still, his prospective owners must accept the math: Using the chart above he'd manage 82 team-influenced runs, plus six more as a result of the six home runs we've projected for him. At 88 runs, he wouldn't be nearly the fantasy asset in the category that other leadoff hitters are, but remember it could be worse … if he batted, say, anywhere lower.

To be clear, none of this represents a promise that either Aybar or Altuve will score 88 runs this season; it is only using historical averages to illustrate a possible impact on either player in these counting-number categories.



Here are a few other players for whom lineup positioning carries weight:

Ben Revere: Whether he occupies the Nos. 1 or 2 versus 7 or 8 lineup spots has a bearing on his fantasy value, not only because of the increase in PAs, but also because as a No. 8 hitter, he'd be on base a fair share with the pitcher at bat.

Torii Hunter: He made 85 starts as a No. 2 hitter for the 2012 Angels, and projects as the No. 2 hitter for his new team, the Detroit Tigers. That's important as it pertains to him because his prospective owners want status quo. He averaged 4.48 PAs per game out of the No. 2 hole, with a BABIP of .426.

Jason Heyward: The third spot (83 starts) was his most frequent home last season, but in 2013 Heyward appears ticketed for the No. 2 hole. Expect more of his RBIs to shift into the runs scored department, but the slight increase in PAs over the course of the year might be all it takes to drive him above the 30-homer plateau.

B.J. Upton: He was a No. 2 hitter most often last year, but should slide in as the No. 5 hitter for his new team, the Atlanta Braves. Though there's chatter that the change will boost his RBI total, be careful not to overrate him, considering the drop in PA. He averaged 4.24 per game in his five years as a regular in Tampa Bay.

Ichiro Suzuki: If he's a bottom-third hitter this season -- and with the New York Yankees' current injuries, he might no longer be -- then Ichiro loses any advantage in counting numbers as a result of decreased plate appearances batting in the bottom third. He needs those PAs to fill the runs scored and stolen base categories; volume of PAs no longer helps him in terms of batting average.
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[h=3]Injured stars could be fantasy bargains
in.gif
[/h]Eric Karabell

When it comes to dealing with injured players in fantasy drafts, it's safe to assume no two situations are exactly the same. Even with New York Yankees sluggers Mark Teixeira and Curtis Granderson expected to miss roughly the same amount of time (into May), there will be differing degrees of performance expectations after they return.

In ESPN standard drafts, owners should be willing to select the longer-term injury cases such as Teixeira, Granderson, Chase Headley and now, unfortunately, Hanley Ramirez, but know that it needs to come with patience. Don't draft them in March and then find in mid-April you need the bench spots and are willing to deal them for little -- or worse yet, simply send them to the waiver wire. Better to use your 11th-rounder on something you can use, even if it brings less upside.
However, both short- and long-term injury candidates often make for draft-day sleepers. It's about value, and the wise fantasy owner, assuming patience and willingness to follow a planned strategy, can combine an injured option with fill-in April numbers. In one of my leagues last, season I was able to stash away an undervalued Allen Craig for six weeks, yet accumulate more than 120 RBIs from that utility spot since I had added Cody Ross in the interim.
Regardless, here are my thoughts on some noteworthy injured folks. I can't discuss injuries with the depth and knowledge of colleague Stephania Bell, but here are statistical expectations and degree of interest. We'll start with the Yankees and, if there's any room left, deal with other players!
<OFFER></OFFER>
Derek Jeter, SS, Yankees: I jettisoned Jeter in a 16-team, 12-keeper league recently, tipping my hand on value there, and wouldn't be surprised if he sits most of April. Eduardo Nunez, incidentally, is a 30-steal threat with 400 at-bats this season, an outstanding $1 buy in deep auction formats. Jeter is going in the 16th round on average in ESPN live drafts, still optimistic unless you expect a .300 batting average and double digits in home runs and stolen bases, which I don't.
Curtis Granderson, OF, Yankees: This is a straight-forward forearm fracture, not a hand or knee issue that deals with ligaments and can often linger for months. I really do expect Granderson to have a productive four months. My problem is I don't want the .240 batting average. A good value after the top 100, but I haven't drafted him anywhere.
Mark Teixeira, 1B, Yankees: Wrist tendon injuries are no joke. In fact, the team even acknowledges season-ending surgery is possible. I once had a healthy Teixeira in my seventh round, since the 30-homer hitters don't grow on trees anymore, but now I wouldn't consider him in even the 20th round of a standard format.
Hanley Ramirez, SS/3B, Los Angeles Dodgers: Don't blame the WBC. Players get hurt in spring games and even in their kitchens as well. Ramirez tore a thumb ligament. He's outside the top 100 in ESPN rankings, but I wouldn't let him drop further than Round 11. For one, he's a base stealer, and two, he's a shortstop. Six weeks of Yunel Escobar or Cliff Pennington really won't kill you. There's nice value to be had with Hanley.


Chase Headley, 3B, San Diego Padres: Surgery is not pending for the tip of his left thumb, as ligaments weren't involved, and it's possible he plays in April. He's fallen to the eighth round (from the fifth), but that's far enough for me. I'm not too worried about him hitting for power or running the final five months.
David Ortiz, DH, Boston Red Sox: Frankly, it'd be easier if we knew how much time he'd miss. For now, he's expected to land on the DL through April as he deals with recovery from an Achilles injury. Is this another Ryan Howard situation? Absolutely not! He's not close to a top-100 option for drafts, but should be a top-100 performer upon his return, so the 15th round is nice value.
Brett Lawrie, 3B, Toronto Blue Jays: Strained rib muscles will land him on the DL -- when the team actually makes the transaction is anyone's guess -- and certainly Lawrie is starting to look like a brittle player. I'm not convinced yet, but then again, let's not be naive. He plays all-out, and there are consequences. Lawrie might miss only a week or two, strengthening value as a seventh-round choice, but one that should be expected to play no more than 140 games. At least Lawrie should hit and run when he's out there.
David Freese, 3B, St. Louis Cardinals: OK, so this position has turned from quietly deep into an injured mess. Freese's 2012 was a revelation. He played in 144 games and hit! I'm not as confident now. His back injury shouldn't keep him sidelined long, but it could certainly linger and affect production. This is yet another reason why Matt Carpenter deep-league owners should feel pretty good. He's going to play. As for Freese, depending on the construction of my team, I'm ready to go Mike Moustakas, Kyle Seager, Todd Frazier or Pedro Alvarez over him.
Brian McCann, C, Atlanta Braves: There is absolutely no reason to deal with this in any one-catcher league. For example, in a mock draft Monday, I had my choice of Jesus Montero and Jonathan Lucroy as my starter, with my 25th-rounder. In deeper leagues, I suppose McCann can be a sleeper when the torn labrum in his throwing shoulder heals, but there's batting average risk here. He's not among my top 15 catchers. Give me Montero, Lucroy, Carlos Ruiz, A.J. Pierzynski, Ryan Doumit or even Alex Avila.
It's not by accident that there were no pitchers listed above. In a standard 10-team league, I'll likely use bench spots for healthy pitchers, looking to activate them based on weekly matchups. I have taken shots in deeper leagues on a few Tommy John returnees, such as Brandon Beachy, Daniel Hudson and even Scott Baker, but expectations are low. While I'll never forget the Jason Schmidt season in 2003 when his stock plummeted due to a scheduled April DL stint and he still ended up fantasy's best pitcher, I don't see the same upside with Matt Garza, Johan Santana, Shaun Marcum or Phil Hughes, so I've been targeting healthier folks.
At closer, I'm far less concerned with Casey Janssen, Chris Perez and Jason Motte at this point, so I haven't been avoiding them as they slip in drafts or exalting their short-term (well, I believe) replacements in Sergio Santos, Vinnie Pestano and Mitchell Boggs. Then again, there are plenty of saves out there, and there will be a month from now as well.
 

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The most meaningful stat splits

By Brian Gramling | Special to ESPN.com

The vast majority of analysis columns in the MLB Draft Kit are to prepare you for your upcoming fantasy draft or auction. But this statistics column was designed specifically as an in-season reference, especially for leagues with daily moves and the one-day salary-cap contests that are gaining popularity.

I took a look at several hundred player statistics to find which numbers were the most telling, the ones you can use as a guide to set lineups and to help find favorable or unfavorable matchups. Now, you won't see many (if any) top-50 players included in this research because, let's face it, you shouldn't bench any of these players in any situation, and most of their numbers are pretty darned good versus any team or venue.

In terms of ballparks, these splits are the out-of-ordinary career stats. Because Coors Field is No. 1 in park factors in hits and in runs, Fenway Park ranks second in hits and third in runs and Miller Park has the most homers, it goes without saying that a hitter rates better than normal for an upcoming series in Colorado, Boston or Milwaukee. On the flip side, Safeco Field, PNC Park and AT&T Park are the three hardest stadiums for runs and hits, and all three rank in the bottom four (along with Petco Park) for least home runs. Thus, when a borderline starter enters a series in Seattle, Pittsburgh or San Francisco, you have to think twice before starting this guy in your fantasy lineup.

Below is a rundown of the trends and splits I found most interesting, surprising, disturbing, bizarre, etc. I also used what I felt was a large enough sample size for them to mean something. All stats are career marks unless otherwise noted. Green stats
equal great; red stats are bad, and sometimes downright awful:

Adam Wainwright, SP, St. Louis Cardinals
Post-All-Star break (past 5 years): 35-19, 2.79 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 7.8 K/9 in 66 starts
At PNC Park: 5.51 ERA, 1.64 WHIP in 10 games (8 starts)

Ryan Zimmerman, 3B, Washington Nationals
Post-All-Star break (past 3 years): .315 BA, .378 OBP, .508 SLG in 799 at-bats
Versus LHP (past 3 years): .322 BA, .424 OBP, 490 SLG in 339 at-bats
Versus Miami (past 3 years): .361 BA, .423 OBP, .627 SLG in 166 at-bats

Yoenis Cespedes, OF, Oakland Athletics
Post-All-Star break: .311 BA, .376 OBP, .533 SLG in 289 at-bats
At home: .319 BA, .406 OBP, .531 SLG in 226 at-bats

Madison Bumgarner, SP, San Francisco
April: 4.07 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, 5.4 K/9 in 10 starts
After April 30: 3.10 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 8.4 K/9 in 77 games (74 starts)
At Dodger Stadium: 3-1, 1.98 ERA, 1.06 WHIP in 5 games (4 starts)

Ben Zobrist, 2B/SS/OF, Tampa Bay Rays
At Camden Yards: .306 BA, .400 OBP, .522 SLG in 157 at-bats
Versus Boston (past 4 years): .221 BA, .325 SLG in 240 at-bats

Matt Wieters, C, Baltimore Orioles
At Tropicana Field: .363 BA, .395 OBP, .487 SLG in 113 at-bats
At Rogers Centre: .186 BA, .266 OBP, .340 SLG in 97 at-bats

Brett Lawrie, 3B, Toronto Blue Jays
At home: .300 BA, .362 OBP, .498 SLG, .860 OPS in 317 at-bats
On road: .257 BA, .310 OBP, .394 SLG, .704 OPS in 327 at-bats

Jason Kipnis, 2B, Cleveland Indians
Versus LHP: .223 BA, .300 SLG in 247 at-bats
Versus Chicago White Sox: .283 BA, .489 SLG in 92 at-bats
Versus Minnesota: .215 BA, .301 SLG in 93 at-bats

Austin Jackson, OF, Detroit Tigers
Versus Chicago White Sox: .330 BA, .413 OBP, .519 SLG in 212 at-bats
Versus Cleveland: .307 BA, .357 OBP, .413 SLG in 189 at-bats

Allen Craig, 1B/OF, Cardinals
Versus LHP: .314 BA, .349 OBP, .591 SLG, 15 HRs in 242 at-bats
Versus Pittsburgh: .361 BA, .394 OBP, .629 SLG, 1.023 OPS in 97 at-bats

Ian Desmond, SS, Nationals
Post-All-Star break: .291 BA, .337 OBP, .442 SLG in 771 at-bats
Versus the American League: .226 BA, .272 OBP, .351 SLG in 168 at-bats
Versus Miami: .311 BA, .352 OBP, .453 SLG in 161 at-bats

Chris Sale, SP, White Sox
Pre-All-Star break: 12-2, 2.53 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, 136 K's in 139 innings
Versus Minnesota: 3-0, 0.93 ERA, 0.69 WHIP, 28 K's in 29 innings

Johnny Cueto, SP, Cincinnati Reds
Versus the AL (past 3 years): 7-1, 2.17 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, 7.7 K/9 in 9 starts
Versus Pittsburgh (past 4 years): 10-3, 2.24 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 8.2 K/9 in 16 starts

Desmond Jennings, OF, Rays
At home: .222 BA, .305 OBP, .384 SLG in 370 at-bats
At Rogers Centre: .377 BA, .431 OBP, .698 SLG, 5 HRs in 53 at-bats
Versus Baltimore: .103 BA, .161 OBP, .207 SLG, 13 K's in 58 at-bats

Mat Latos, SP, Reds
Versus San Francisco: 4-3, 2.19 ERA, 0.89 WHIP in 11 starts
At Busch Stadium: 1-3, 13.50 ERA, 2.44 WHIP, .405 opponents' BA in 4 starts

Aramis Ramirez, 3B, Milwaukee Brewers
Post-All-Star break (past 4 years): .310 BA, .369 OBP, .551 SLG in 946 at-bats
Versus St. Louis (past 6 years): .336 BA, .399 OBP, .551 SLG, 12 HRs in 265 at-bats

Jordan Zimmermann, SP, Nationals
Pre-All-Star break: 3.15 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 6.9 K/9 in 50 starts
On road: 3.23 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 8.2 K/9 in 41 starts
Versus the AL: 1.99 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 6.5 K/9 in 11 starts

Paul Goldschmidt, 1B, Arizona Diamondbacks
Pre-All-Star break: .302 BA, .368 OBP, .552 SLG in 252 at-bats
On road: .303 BA, .373 OBP, .522 SLG in 347 at-bats
At AT&T Park: .352 BA, .431 OBP, .667 SLG, 4 HRs in 54 at-bats

Aaron Hill, 2B, Diamondbacks
At Chase Field: .315 BA, .372 OBP, .547 SLG, 16 HRs in 391 at-bats
Versus Colorado (past 2 years): .360 BA, .436 OBP, .652 SLG, 4 HRs in 89 at-bats

Alex Rios, OF, White Sox
Versus Minnesota (past 3 years): .313 BA, .553 SLG, 11 HRs in 208 at-bats
Versus Cleveland (past 5 years): .251 BA, .322 OBP, .406 SLG in 239 at-bats

Roy Halladay, SP, Philadelphia Phillies
Versus Washington (past 3 years): 7-1, 2.53 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 10.1 K/9 in 9 games
Versus Atlanta (2012): 0-2, 11.21 ERA, 2.15 WHIP, 1.069 opponents OPS (4 starts)

Jimmy Rollins, SS, Phillies
Versus New York Mets (past 6 years): .316 BA, .374 OBP, .493 SLG, 12 HRs in 373 at-bats
Versus Atlanta (past 4 years): .207 BA, .256 OBP, .343 SLG in 242 at-bats

Shin-Soo Choo, OF, Reds
Versus LHP (2012): .199 BA, .318 OBP, .286 SLG, 60 K's in 206 at-bats
Versus the National League (past 4 years): .302 BA, .392 OBP, .508 SLG, 10 HRs in 248 at-bats

Pablo Sandoval, 3B, Giants
At home (past 4 years): .329 BA, .380 OBP, .531 SLG, 36 HRs in 948 at-bats
Versus Colorado (past 2 years): .371 BA, .435 OBP, .887 SLG, 8 HRs in 62 at-bats

Jeff Samardzija, SP, Chicago Cubs
Post-All-Star break (past 2 years): 6-5, 2.46 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 9.4 K/9 in 109 2/3 innings
Versus Pittsburgh: 3-0, 1.16 ERA, 0.77 WHIP, .206 opponents' slugging in 31 innings

Mike Napoli, C/1B, Red Sox
Post-All-Star break (past 2 years): .329 BA, .425 OBP, .662 SLG, 30 HRs in 325 at-bats
Versus LHP (2012): .179 BA, .295 OBP, .411 SLG, 40 K's in 112 at-bats

J.J. Hardy, SS, Orioles
At Fenway Park (past 2 years): .183 BA, .216 OBP, .329 SLG in 82 at-bats
At Yankee Stadium: .194 BA, .229 OBP, .373 SLG in 67 at-bats

Chris Davis, 1B/OF, Orioles
Versus Boston (past 2 years): .326 BA, .365 OBP, .517 SLG in 89 at-bats
Versus New York Yankees (past 2 years): .217 BA, .256 OBP, .361 SLG in 83 at-bats
Versus the NL (past 3 years): .198 BA, .258 OBP, .396 SLG in 111 at-bats
 

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[h=1]You Heard Me![/h][h=3]The Talented Mr. Roto makes his annual bold predictions[/h]By Matthew Berry | ESPN.com

The part that people forget, of course, is that it's only the best part of sports.

It's why we watch, we cheer, why we scream and why we cry.

The surprise, I mean. It's been a great NCAA tournament so far. Among the reasons why? Wichita State, LaSalle and the Dunk City theatrics of Florida Gulf Coast. We love the unexpected. We love the big upset, the amazing performance. Look, I am not a Heat fan and I was among those piling on LeBron for his "Decision" and the bravado that accompanied it. But even I have to admit what he's doing is unreal. And it's why we love it.

The expected is ho-hum. But the out of the blue? The I-picked-up-Mike-Trout-and-he-led-me-to-a-title? That is what makes sports -- and fantasy -- so special. When the longshot works out.

This is the longshot column.

Everything else you have read, heard, watched and digested this preseason is steeped in scouting and stats. You may not agree with all of it, but I assure you, gentle reader, our projections, rankings, sleepers and busts are all backed by reasonable, well-thought-out, defensible analysis.


Except this.

This is pure, unadulterated gut-call time. This is a list of things that are unlikely to happen. But, as the owners of last year's No. 1 pitcher on our Player Rater -- 38-year-old knuckleballer R.A. Dickey -- will tell you, unlikely does not mean impossible.

I've written this column twice a year for many years now and I call it "You Heard Me!"

Like, we might be hanging out and I'd say something like "I say RG III comes back, plays week 1 and leads my Redskins to a Super Bowl."

And you'd be all, like, "Whaaaaat?"

And then I'd be all, "You heard me!"

It's a bold prediction. Now for a bold prediction to actually be bold, it has to be fairly unlikely to happen. Justin Verlander has 200 strikeouts? Not a bold prediction. Justin Verlander has an ERA over 5.00 and strikes out fewer than 140 while still making every start? Bold.

Some may see this piece as "fluff" or not helpful, but I think it's really helpful. You heard me. Last year in this column, I had some pretty good bold predictions: Edwin Encarnacion hits 34 home runs, Adam Dunn hits 40 (remember how bad he was in 2011?), Chris Perez (injured last preseason and rumored to be losing his job) finishes in the top five in saves and Dickey is a top-30 pitcher on the Player Rater, are among the bold calls I nailed. Because, at the time, even if it doesn't seem so in retrospect, they were bold.

Of course, I also predicted 50 home runs for Adrian Gonzalez, Aramis Ramirez as not being a top-15 third baseman and Francisco Liriano being a top-10 pitcher. Those are a few of the massive misses I had.

But like I said, this is high-risk, high-reward, unlikely-to-happen territory we are entering here. But here's how to use this column, other than using it to make yourself feel better about your own predictions ("at least I'm better than this guy") or your own writing (Not gonna lie. The intro here is similar to last year, too. Only so many ways to introduce bold predictions).

The idea isn't that I nail highly improbable predictions, it's rather to identify players who I have a strong feeling on, one way or the other, from potential gems for the end game to guys to slightly upgrades/downgrade on your cheat sheets.

For example, last year I said in this piece that Alfonso Soriano would go 35/100, that Jason Kubel and Paul Goldschmidt would combine for 60 home runs and that Mark Trumbo would finish the year as a top-10 third baseman while hitting 30 home runs. Soriano went 32/108, the Arizona players combined for 50 and Trumbo never did qualify at third, finishing as a top-12 first baseman. So technically, I got all three predictions wrong, though I doubt anyone who drafted any of those guys very late was upset with what they got.
Now, the people that bought into me saying Erik Bedard would win the Cy Young, that Chris Heisey would hit 35 home runs or that Brian Matusz would be a top-30 pitcher on the player rater ... they had every reason to be upset. Yeesh. They're not all winners, kids. But how much did those players cost you? Not much, beyond the opportunity to draft different lottery-ticket types.

Enough caveats for you? Good. I've done one prediction for each major league team along with some quick reasoning behind it. What you do with it after you read it is completely up to you.
Baltimore Orioles: Brian Roberts returns to being a top-10 second baseman this year. My thinking: Health is the issue, of course, but this is a guy with more than 700 plate appearances for three straight seasons from 2007 to 2009. He's having a good spring, and this is healthiest he's been in years.

Boston Red Sox: 200 strikeouts and a sub-3.85 ERA for Felix Doubront. My thinking: Dude had a K/9 over nine last year, is having a good spring and is just 24. Another year in the bigs to work more innings and get his stuff under control.


New York Yankees: Kevin Youkilis goes 25/100, plays 150 games. My thinking: Hell hath no fury like a third baseman scorned. Pretty sure that's how it goes. Motivated by how it ended with the Red Sox, it makes no sense at all that, with the walking wounded that are the New York Yankees this year, one of the few healthy guys would be Kevin Youkilis. Which is why it'll happen. Skills are mostly still there.

Tampa Bay Rays: Matt Joyce hits 30 home runs. My thinking: If I keep putting him in this column, maybe it'll eventually come true. Worked for Edwin Encarnacion last year. Joyce makes either his third or fourth straight appearance here. I have yet to be right on him. But here's a bonus bold prediction. This is the year I am right on a breakout for Matt Joyce.

Toronto Blue Jays: Brandon Morrow finishes as a top-10 pitcher on the player rater. My thinking: Keeps improving every year, if he stays healthy the K's will be there, as will the wins.

Chicago White Sox: Hector Santiago joins the starting rotation, wins double-digit games and is a top-50 starting pitcher on the player rater. My thinking: Was actually a decent starter in the minors, they've already said they might use him against lefty-heavy lineups and it's not like the White Sox have a rotation that's impenetrable.

Cleveland Indians: Jason Kipnis is the No. 1 second baseman in fantasy this year. My thinking: The injuries on the Yankees are too much and hurt Robinson Cano's counting stats, Dustin Pedroia and Ian Kinsler have trouble staying healthy and Kipnis puts together a full year of what he did in the first half last season, rather than what he did in the second.

Detroit Tigers: Phil Coke saves 25 games. My thinking: They just sent Bruce Rondon down to the minors. Joaquin Benoit gave up too many home runs last year and is better suited to be a setup guy. Al Alburquerque is still inexperienced and walks too many, Octavio Dotel is Octavio Dotel. Meanwhile, Coke closed games in the playoffs when Jose Valverde faltered and had 51 strikeouts and just 18 walks in 54 innings last year.

Kansas City Royals: Ervin Santana wins 14 games, has a 3.50 ERA and strikes out 185. My thinking: We discussed this on the podcast last week and I rostered Santana on my AL Tout Wars team; I'm a believer. Underlying numbers last year were the same as the previous two, just got unlucky with home run/fly ball rate (OK, really unlucky) and strand rate. He's got something to prove.

Minnesota Twins: Aaron Hicks hits double-digit home runs and steals 30 bases. My thinking: Got the starting gig off a hot spring and they'll need to generate offense, he did steal 32 in Double A last year and I don't even remotely believe any of the other bold predictions I came up with for this team. This one at least has a shot of coming true if Hicks keeps the starting job all year.

Houston Astros: Erik Bedard wins double-digit games, has an ERA under 4.00, a WHIP under 1.30 and over 150 strikeouts. My thinking: He's my fantasy kryptonite, as Bill Simmons likes to say. Actually stayed healthy last year, but got unlucky with strand rate and his BABIP, to an extent. He still walked way too many, but hoping a return to the AL West actually helps. Not starting him at Texas or anything, but yeah, I can't quit Erik Bedard.

Los Angeles Angels: Mike Trout, Albert Pujols and Josh Hamilton are not among the top 20 players on the player rater at the end of the year. You heard me. My thinking: I'm hoping I'll be dead wrong. The Angels are my team. But remember, this is supposed to be bold. I'm worried about regression for Trout (average and power have to come down), the declining skills of Pujols and the injury history and free-falling K rate of Hamilton.

Oakland Athletics: Yoenis Cespedes goes .300/30/30. My thinking: Now adjusted to the Major Leagues, sky is the limit. Needs to get a little lucky with the batting average, but the A's are a better team around him than you think. Not great, but better than you think. Believe the hype.

Seattle Mariners: Hisashi Iwakuma is a top-20 starting pitcher on our Player Rater. My thinking: It's what I wrote in Love/Hate. Had 16 starts last year with a 7.39 K/9 as a starter, with a 2.65 BB/9 and getting ground balls at a 50.9 percent clip. Only others to do that are David Price, Adam Wainwright and James Shields. He needs to get lucky with the wins to make this come true, but I do like him a lot.

Texas Rangers: 250 strikeouts and the AL Cy Young award for Yu Darvish. My thinking: Now adjusted to the MLB season and, more importantly, the MLB strike zone, he improves on last year's numbers, pitches more innings and is the guy we saw over his final seven starts (4-1, 2.13 ERA, 5.3 walk rate) for the whole year.

Atlanta Braves: 20 home runs for Evan Gattis. My thinking: If McCann can't get or stay healthy, Gattis can get hot with the bat and gets majority of playing time. The pop is real, he just needs the at-bats. Plus, I've already talked about Kris Medlen for two straight years now, I should have at least one piece where I don't.

Miami Marlins: Justin Ruggiano goes 20/20. My thinking: He got lucky some last year and isn't a great player. But he'll hit in the middle of the lineup, they have no one else and just by sheer number of at-bats, he could fall into these numbers if the luck continues.


New York Mets: 200 strikeouts for Matt Harvey, who finishes among the top 20 starting pitchers on our Player Rater. My thinking: Has had a K/9 over nine at every level of the minors, including a one over 10 in 59 innings last year. Gets the control under, er, control and sky's the limit.

Philadelphia Phillies: An ERA over 5, fewer than seven wins, and a player rater finish outside the top 60 pitchers for Roy Halladay. My thinking: Sometimes you don't slow down when you reach the wall; sometimes you hit it hard and fast and when you do, it isn't pretty. Bonus one if you think Halladay is too easy: Domonic Brown goes 15/15 and flirts with 20/20 and a respectable average.

Washington Nationals: Ian Desmond is the No. 1 shortstop in fantasy this year. My thinking: I'm cheating. It's not that bold at all. He was actually the second-best shortstop last year, behind only Jose Reyes, it's just that no one realizes it (going in the 7th round). Troy Tulowitzki is still a health risk, Hanley Ramirez is already hurt and maybe Reyes takes some time to adjust to the AL. Meanwhile, Desmond keeps the average up while improving even more in power and homers. Still just 27.

Chicago Cubs: 220 strikeouts for Jeff Samardzija. My thinking: Skills are there, he just needs to throw about 45 more innings or so than last year.

Cincinnati Reds: Homer Bailey gets 17 wins, has 185 strikeouts, and an ERA of 3.30. My thinking: Homer Bailey is another fantasy kryptonite for me, but he finally seemed to put it together for a full season last year. Now he takes the next step with a good bullpen behind him and underlying numbers heading in the right direction. FYI, came close to having a very positive Devin Mesoraco prediction in here.


Milwaukee Brewers: Rickie Weeks finishes as a top-four second baseman on our ESPN player rater. My thinking: Has looked good this spring and had more than 670 plate appearances last year. Rebounded in the second half last year after a tough start in the first half.

Pittsburgh Pirates: Jason Grilli, currently going 21st among relief pitchers, finishes the year as a top-three closer. You heard me. My thinking: Completely different pitcher the past two years, his strikeout rate (13.8 K/9 last year!) suggests a lot of value there along with just the saves. If he keeps job all year, could see him being just behind Craig Kimbrel and Aroldis Chapman on the player rater.

St. Louis Cardinals: Allen Craig is the No. 1 fantasy first baseman. My thinking: Declining skills and possible injury on Pujols, maybe Joey Votto's power outage last year was more real than we think, and maybe Prince Fielder gets unlucky with the batting average while keeping his power in the 28-to-30 homer range. Meanwhile, Craig stays healthy all year and has some gains in power and runs scored.

Arizona Diamondbacks: Paul Goldschmidt is the No. 1 fantasy first baseman. My thinking: I could easily be wrong about Craig above, and I really do love Goldschmidt, so I wanted to highlight him even more than I did in Love/Hate. If he continues running and the power and average grow a little ... By the way, if forced to pick someone other than him, I would have gone with a positive Trevor Cahill prediction. I feel he's always underrated and is heading in the right direction.

Colorado Rockies: Eric Young Jr. steals 40 bases. My thinking: I can't do a Tyler Colvin prediction three years in a row. Quitting while I'm ahead. EY Jr. is cheap speed and, between injury and unproven players on the Rockies roster, I see a lot of ways he could get playing time, in addition to just filling in on days off and pinch running.

Los Angeles Dodgers: Zack Greinke is not a top-30 pitcher this year. My thinking: Already had some slight injury issues, he's had stretches of inconsistency throughout his career. Has a reputation as being a bit fragile mentally, and living in Los Angeles with a ton of money can have an effect on people.

San Diego Padres: Andrew Cashner wins double-digit games, has more than 170 strikeouts and an ERA of under 3.50 with a WHIP of under 1.25. My thinking: The strikeouts are already there, with a K/9 of more than 10 last year. He had good control in the minors, but not yet in the majors. Another year in the bigs, a full-time rotation spot (I say he gets one) and a 97 mph fastball in Petco make for fantasy goodness.

San Francisco Giants: Tim Lincecum leads the Giants in saves. You heard me! My thinking: My most out-there one, but maybe Romo struggles with the gig over a full season and is better suited to setup. Meanwhile, Lincecum is terrible again in the rotation but becomes effective out of the bullpen.

There you have it. Season is just about to start. We know the unexpected awaits, these are some of the things I could see happening. What are yours? Let me read your best ones in the comments below or share them on my Facebook page or on Twitter.
 

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Fantasy Baseball Top 200

By Matthew Berry | ESPN.com

So these are my rankings. Emphasis on the word "my." Specifically, these are my rankings incorporating my biases, theories and draft strategy this year for ESPN standard leagues. In other words, these rankings are tailored towards ESPN's default game, which means a 10-team mixed league with 5x5 rotisserie scoring, only one catcher, just three bench spots and one DL spot.

Under those parameters, I find it tough to take Buster Posey in the top 16, the way he is currently being drafted. His talent is unquestioned, it's just a matter of scarcity, or lack thereof. There are a lot of good catchers this year and you only need to start one. Also, while there may be lots of pitching available on the waiver wire for streaming, there is a start limit, so I'll take the risk on WHIP in exchange for Yu Darvish's huge advantage in strikeouts. Therefore, I'm higher on him than most.

If you've read me anytime in the past 14 years, you know I always say don't pay for saves. This year is no different. Now, don't pay for saves doesn't mean ignore saves, it just means I believe you can find quality at the position later in the draft and on the waiver wire, so I'm probably lower on closers in my overall ranks than most. They reflect how I (in general) draft. And why you'll never see Craig Kimbrel on my team, even though I agree he's the top closer; his ADP has him going late in the fourth round while I wouldn't touch him before the seventh.

As I intimated in my 100 Facts column, batting average isn't what it used to be. So I forgave (or didn't penalize as harshly) guys who hit in the .250s; while not helpful, it's not as hurtful as it was in the past. That said, I also gave favor to those who will hit for a high average. The guys who will get 500 or more at-bats and are capable of a .300 average are much more scarce these days, so I'm probably higher on some of those types than others (hello, Paul Konerko).


The other side of that is that despite pitching being deep, I didn't rank starting pitching with the idea that you can "wait on starters." You can, just understand you'll finish middle of the pack in pitching, if you're lucky. Because pitching is so deep, everyone will have a good staff. So you need a stud, if not two, to be at the top. The ranks reflect that.

I'm a position scarcity guy, so that played a factor in these ranks as well. For example, I'm higher on Jose Altuve than most, I am guessing, because I think he's the last guy I'd be comfortable with as my starting second baseman in a league this size. So, if I were in a draft and had waited, I'd probably reach for him (as evidenced in my ranks) because I don't like the options after him.
When I have players at the same position right next to each other, it's my way of saying I think they are all of equal value/risk and it's just personal preference there. Also, be sure to note the date up top. When the ranks are updated, we'll change the date. News happens fast and value changes all the time during spring training, so knowing when the most recent update to these are will help.

Finally and most important, use these rankings as a guideline. A loose guideline. Don't follow my ranks (or anyone else's) religiously. Every draft is different, team construction and needs are different; as my friends at "The League" would say, don't be a rankings slave.

And here we go.

<style type="text/css">.mod-inline td img {margin: 0px;}</style>[h=3]Matthew Berry's 2013 Fantasy Baseball Top 200[/h]
<center> Overall
Rank </center>
Player <center> Team </center><center> Eligible
Position(s) </center>
1 Ryan Braun Mil OF
2 Miguel Cabrera Det 3B
3 Mike Trout LAA OF
4 Robinson Cano NYY 2B
5 Matt Kemp LAD OF
6 Carlos Gonzalez Col OF
7 Andrew McCutchen Pit OF
8 Prince Fielder Det 1B
9 Albert Pujols LAA 1B
10 Joey Votto Cin 1B
11 Justin Upton Atl OF
12 Giancarlo Stanton Mia OF
13 Justin Verlander Det SP
14 Clayton Kershaw LAD SP
15 Adrian Beltre Tex 3B
16 Troy Tulowitzki Col SS
17 Jose Bautista Tor OF
18 David Wright NYM 3B
19 Stephen Strasburg Wsh SP
20 David Price TB SP
21 Buster Posey SF C/1B
22 Evan Longoria TB 3B
23 Dustin Pedroia Bos 2B
24 Ian Kinsler Tex 2B
25 Edwin Encarnacion Tor 1B
26 Josh Hamilton LAA OF
27 Bryce Harper Wsh OF
28 Jose Reyes Tor SS
29 Adrian Gonzalez LAD 1B
30 Jason Heyward Atl OF
31 Cliff Lee Phi SP
32 Yu Darvish Tex SP
33 Matt Cain SF SP
34 Starlin Castro ChC SS
35 Jay Bruce Cin OF
36 Jacoby Ellsbury Bos OF
37 Matt Holliday StL OF
38 Adam Jones Bal OF
39 Billy Butler KC 1B
40 Allen Craig StL 1B/OF
41 B.J. Upton Atl OF
42 Felix Hernandez Sea SP
43 Cole Hamels Phi SP
44 Brandon Phillips Cin 2B
45 Paul Goldschmidt Ari 1B
46 Michael Bourn Cle OF
47 R.A. Dickey Tor SP
48 Madison Bumgarner SF SP
49 Ryan Zimmerman Wsh 3B
50 Adam Wainwright StL SP
51 Yoenis Cespedes Oak OF
52 Ben Zobrist TB OF/2B/SS
53 Jason Kipnis Cle 2B
54 Jered Weaver LAA SP
55 Gio Gonzalez Wsh SP
56 Chris Sale CWS SP
57 Zack Greinke LAD SP
58 Kris Medlen Atl RP/SP
59 Austin Jackson Det OF
60 Craig Kimbrel Atl RP
61 Aaron Hill Ari 2B
62 Brett Lawrie Tor 3B
63 Pablo Sandoval SF 3B
64 Aramis Ramirez Mil 3B
65 Ian Desmond Wsh SS
66 CC Sabathia NYY SP
67 Jordan Zimmermann Wsh SP
68 Yadier Molina StL C
69 Matt Wieters Bal C
70 Johnny Cueto Cin SP
71 Alex Rios CWS OF
72 Jose Altuve Hou 2B
73 Jimmy Rollins Phi SS
74 Desmond Jennings TB OF
75 Aroldis Chapman Cin RP/SP
76 Shin-Soo Choo Cin OF
77 Matt Moore TB SP
78 Mat Latos Cin SP
79 Yovani Gallardo Mil SP
80 Victor Martinez Det C
81 Anthony Rizzo ChC 1B
82 Paul Konerko CWS 1B
83 Ike Davis NYM 1B
84 Freddie Freeman Atl 1B
85 Chase Headley SD 3B
86 Joe Mauer Min C/1B
87 Max Scherzer Det SP
88 Elvis Andrus Tex SS
89 Carlos Santana Cle C/1B
90 Alex Gordon KC OF
91 Melky Cabrera Tor OF
92 Brandon Morrow Tor SP
93 Carlos Gomez Mil OF
94 Curtis Granderson NYY OF
95 Jonathan Papelbon Phi RP
96 Rafael Soriano Wsh RP
97 Eric Hosmer KC 1B
98 Shane Victorino Bos OF
99 Carlos Beltran StL OF
100 Brett Gardner NYY OF
101 Martin Prado Ari OF/3B
102 Josh Willingham Min OF
103 Mark Trumbo LAA OF/1B
104 Hanley Ramirez LAD 3B/SS
105 Asdrubal Cabrera Cle SS
106 Mariano Rivera NYY RP
107 Jake Peavy CWS SP
108 James Shields KC SP
109 Dan Haren Wsh SP
110 Angel Pagan SF OF
111 Danny Espinosa Wsh 2B/SS
112 Doug Fister Det SP
113 Ian Kennedy Ari SP
114 Anibal Sanchez Det SP
115 Chris Davis Bal OF/1B
116 Jeff Samardzija ChC SP
117 Jonathon Niese NYM SP
118 Alejandro De Aza CWS OF
119 Nelson Cruz Tex OF
120 Mike Napoli Bos C/1B
121 Hiroki Kuroda NYY SP
122 Hunter Pence SF OF
123 Tim Lincecum SF SP
124 Kyle Lohse FA SP
125 Neil Walker Pit 2B
126 Torii Hunter Det OF
127 Howard Kendrick LAA 2B
128 Roy Halladay Phi SP
129 Carl Crawford LAD OF
130 Adam LaRoche Wsh 1B
131 Mike Moustakas KC 3B
132 Fernando Rodney TB RP
133 J.J. Putz Ari RP
134 Joel Hanrahan Bos RP
135 Joe Nathan Tex RP
136 Jason Motte StL RP
137 David Ortiz Bos DH
138 Alcides Escobar KC SS
139 Justin Morneau Min 1B
140 Ryan Howard Phi 1B
141 C.J. Wilson LAA SP
142 Pedro Alvarez Pit 3B
143 Andre Ethier LAD OF
144 Rickie Weeks Mil 2B
145 Huston Street SD RP
146 Jason Kubel Ari OF
147 Michael Morse Sea OF
148 Matt Harvey NYM SP
149 David Freese StL 3B
150 Kyle Seager Sea 3B
151 Chase Utley Phi 2B
152 Josh Johnson Tor SP
153 Erick Aybar LAA SS
154 Jon Lester Bos SP
155 Cameron Maybin SD OF
156 Alfonso Soriano ChC OF
157 Lance Lynn StL SP
158 Kendrys Morales Sea 1B
159 Emilio Bonifacio Tor OF
160 Dan Uggla Atl 2B
161 Josh Reddick Oak OF
162 Ichiro Suzuki NYY OF
163 Colby Rasmus Tor OF
164 Salvador Perez KC C
165 Norichika Aoki Mil OF
166 Miguel Montero Ari C
167 Will Middlebrooks Bos 3B
168 John Axford Mil RP
169 Wilin Rosario Col C
170 Dexter Fowler Col OF
171 Homer Bailey Cin SP
172 Marco Estrada Mil SP
173 Jim Johnson Bal RP
174 Addison Reed CWS RP
175 Rafael Betancourt Col RP
176 Sergio Romo SF RP
177 Greg Holland KC RP
178 Todd Frazier Cin 3B/1B
179 Ben Revere Phi OF
180 Wade Miley Ari SP
181 Derek Jeter NYY SS
182 Jeremy Hellickson TB SP
183 Matt Harrison Tex SP
184 J.J. Hardy Bal SS
185 Ryan Vogelsong SF SP
186 Lance Berkman Tex 1B
187 Corey Hart Mil 1B/OF
188 Dayan Viciedo CWS OF
189 Jason Grilli Pit RP
190 Jayson Werth Wsh OF
191 Kevin Youkilis NYY 3B/1B
192 Jonathan Lucroy Mil C
193 Jesus Montero Sea C
194 Brett Anderson Oak SP
195 Wandy Rodriguez Pit SP
196 Jarrod Parker Oak SP
197 Mark Reynolds Cle 1B
198 Josh Rutledge Col SS
199 Lorenzo Cain KC OF
200 Adam Dunn CWS 1B

<thead>
</thead><tbody>
</tbody>
 

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Despite demotion, don't give up on Rondon
in.gif


Eric Karabell

Believe it or not, and after his demotion to Triple-A Toledo late Wednesday it might be a bit hard to believe, but I still think young Detroit Tigers fireballer Bruce Rondon can lead the Tigers in saves. Rondon throws hard but tends to not know where it's headed. He's certainly not alone there, but the Tigers are primed for another World Series run and manager Jim Leyland is aware that a committee approach rarely works. He wants someone to handle the role, not a bunch of someones, and Rondon remains very much in the team's future, even if it initially will be as a Mud Hen.

For fantasy purposes, the Tigers remain the prime bullpen situation to watch as we head into the new season. It's possible right-handers Al Alburquerque and Octavio Dotel and lefties Phil Coke and Darin Downs (don't forget him) will be mixed and matched for saves in early April, but Rondon, who struggled this week on the second part of the back-to-back-days test, will be in the majors soon. The stuff and velocity is there. It also wouldn't surprise me if free agent Jose Valverde, reportedly in great shape, throwing hard and perhaps most importantly represented by ace agent Scott Boras, who usually gets his way, is brought back this week and closing by Tuesday.

It's all about the timing with this and a few other bullpens, so as we discuss closers for the final time in spring training and anxiously await games that count in the standings, here are updated thoughts and predictions for that fickle category we all seem to go gaga over -- the saves -- even if they consistently break our heart.


Detroit Tigers: In AL-only and deep mixed formats Rondon should not be dropped. The Tigers clearly want him in the closer role, even if it takes until May for it to come to full fruition. It's not going to be a popular opinion, but I see Rondon getting at least 20 saves, and if he can't handle it, a trade for a Rafael Betancourt/Chris Perez type will be made. There's no harm in adding Alburquerque, who I like best of the current Detroit major league relievers, because we've seen in the past someone ordinary like an Antonio Alfonseca or Kevin Gregg get a surprising shot and keep the job, but I'm not giving up on Rondon. Remember, Mike Trout made his 2012 season debut on April 28. It's a long season.

Los Angeles Angels: Now I'm getting worried about Ryan Madson, because his elbow isn't right and he's going to need it to be right. As with Rondon, it might take until May for Madson to seize the role, but the difference is the Angels have a guy they trust who really thrived in 2012 in Ernesto Frieri. At this point I'd draft Frieri over Madson, though that isn't close to happening in ESPN average live drafts, and not worry about lefties like Scott Downs or Sean Burnett.

Chicago Cubs: Spring stats mean little, but Carlos Marmol didn't retire any of the Cincinnati Reds he faced in Tuesday's game, while Japanese import Kyuji Fujikawa has made a solid impression. The reason Marmol will be the closer in April is about trade bait. The Cubs want/have to deal him, but need Marmol to thrive in the ninth inning to do so. His eight walks versus four strikeouts in 9 2/3 innings this spring isn't helping. Fujikawa is going earlier in ESPN ADP and nobody ever seems to want the erratic Marmol, but I think he still leads the Cubs in saves and approaches 30. It's going to be hard to trade the guy!

Houston Astros: Well, someone has to save the games this team does win, and while Jose Veras is the front-runner, I remain optimistic that Rule 5 pick Josh Fields, now 27 and figuring things out, has a future in the role. The Astros should go with Veras early; he's experienced and has thrown well this spring. Fields is my sleeper to take the job and lead the team in saves. Consider him in AL-only formats.

Miami Marlins: Speaking of sleepers, I don't see why a bad team -- and the Marlins are not good -- wouldn't try to find its future closer at some point this year. It's clearly A.J. Ramos. Nothing against reasonable ground baller Steve Cishek, but like Rondon, Ramos closed all through the minors, piled on the whiffs but has more command. And he's having a nice spring. Cishek and handcuff Jon Rauch are obvious trade bait, especially for this organization.


Los Angeles Dodgers: Nothing has changed for me this spring. Brandon League still saves 30 games, and Kenley Jansen does not. It doesn't matter who is actually the better pitcher, folks. It matters what manager Don Mattingly wants to do. And he wants League closing.

Cincinnati Reds: If you drafted Jonathan Broxton, my condolences, but I was writing as early as December that Aroldis Chapman would close again because Dusty Baker generally gets his way. This development is not shocking. Still, in NL-only formats, Broxton is the handcuff, and I don't presume, as with other top-5 closers Craig Kimbrel, Jonathan Papelbon and Fernando Rodney, that Chapman will be injury free.

Toronto Blue Jays: Casey Janssen could very well start the year on the DL, but it's also clear the team wants him closing over Sergio Santos. At this point, consider Santos much like Vinnie Pestano in Cleveland or Fujikawa in Chicago, waiting for a chance but with no guarantees.

St. Louis Cardinals: Jason Motte went for a ridiculously low price in our office auction Wednesday night, as everyone seemed concerned his slightly torn -- does the slightly matter? -- flexor tendon will eventually result in Tommy John surgery. But this is not the same tendon that results in that type of surgery. Rest should heal this soon. Motte is a bargain at this point, and while he should start April on the disabled list, this really doesn't appear to be a long-term issue. Add Mitchell Boggs for the first few weeks and enjoy some saves, but Motte is going to save 30 games this year. Don't let him drop too far in drafts, or go for less money than Cishek types who really aren't safer.
 

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[h=1]Bullpen breakdown of all 30 teams[/h][h=3]A look at who's in line to close and the next-in-line option(s)[/h]By Mike Sheets | Special to ESPN.com

As the saying goes, "It's not how you start; it's how you finish."

For relief pitchers, that sentiment certainly rings true. Finishing games -- whether it's pitching in middle relief or actually closing things out in the ninth inning -- is what these guys do. Of course, not all relievers are created equal, and that's what we're here to talk about. After all, some have more job security, some have better track records of health and others are, you know, better known for their facial hair than what they do on the mound (unfortunately, because he remains unsigned as he works his way back from Tommy John surgery, that's the only Brian Wilson reference you're gonna get).

The start of the regular season is less than a week away, so let's jump right in. Here's a team-by-team breakdown of every bullpen in baseball, with a focus on closers and the pecking order behind them.


i
[h=3]Arizona Diamondbacks[/h]


The closer: After notching 77 saves for the Diamondbacks over the past two seasons, J.J. Putz has plenty of stability as Arizona's ninth-inning man. Even at 36 years old, the right-hander's skills have remained sharp, as his K/9 (10.7) and BB/9 (1.8) rates were both terrific last year. While he has been relatively healthy the past few seasons, he does have elbow issues in his past and hasn't topped 60 innings in a season since 2007, so he does carry at least some risk.

Backup plan: David Hernandez is the clear-cut handcuff in Arizona. He has picked up 15 saves the past two years in relief of Putz, along with a 2.50 ERA, 1.02 WHIP and sterling 12.9 K/9 rate in 2012, so he can help your team even if he's not getting saves. His 25 holds last year also ranked top 10 in the National League. … Heath Bell is worth remembering only because of his experience in the ninth inning. He flamed out in Miami last year and is a long shot to hold any fantasy value in 2013.


i
[h=3]Atlanta Braves[/h]


The closer: Universally regarded as the top closer in fantasy, Craig Kimbrel has an average draft position of 38.6, according to ESPN's live draft results, which is several rounds higher than the next closer off the board (Jonathan Papelbon at 77.0). Many fantasy owners are uncomfortable drafting a closer that high, but Kimbrel finished last season as a top-10 player, saving 42 games last year with a 1.01 ERA, 0.65 WHIP and 116 strikeouts in 62 2/3 innings, so he's clearly worth a high investment.

Backup plan: Jordan Walden, acquired from the Angels over the offseason in the Tommy Hanson deal, saved 32 games as recently as 2011, but he was removed from the closer role early last season and never reclaimed the gig. Only 25, Walden could still have a bright future, but his declining fastball velocity and rising walk rate are concerns. Should Kimbrel suffer an injury, Walden might be behind Jonny Venters in the saves pecking order. The left-hander's 3.22 ERA and 1.52 WHIP last year were a disappointment compared to his first two seasons, but his performance in the second half (1.71 ERA, 1.18) should ease any concerns. … Eric O'Flaherty is another name to keep in mind if you're looking for holds; he has racked up 60 the past two seasons combined.


i
[h=3]Baltimore Orioles[/h]


The closer: Jim Johnson saved a major league-best 51 games in 2012. While he likely won't reach those heights again this season, he still has a firm hold on the closer gig in Baltimore, making him a relatively safe fantasy option. Unfortunately, he just doesn't miss enough bats (5.4 K/9 last year) to profile as a top-tier closer.

Backup plan: Pedro Strop was the Orioles' backup closer last year and will serve in the same role this season. That said, walks were a problem for him last year (5.0 BB/9), and he doesn't strike out enough hitters (7.9 K/9) to compensate, so there's no guarantee of long-term success should he be placed in the closer role. … Darren O'Day, who posted a 2.24 ERA and 0.94 WHIP with 69 K's in 67 innings last year, would be a far more intriguing option should the opportunity present itself. … Tommy Hunter is a long shot for any fantasy value, but he showed increased velocity after moving to the bullpen late last year and could work himself into some high-leverage innings in 2013.


i
[h=3]Boston Red Sox[/h]


The closer: The Red Sox acquired Joel Hanrahan from the Pirates in the offseason, and he'll immediately step into the closer role in Boston. While the right-hander has saved at least 36 games each of the past two seasons, his walk rate swelled to 5.4 in 2012, and Fenway Park could be a poor fit after last year's career-high 45.1 fly ball percentage. Hanrahan should have a long leash, but he's riskier than you might realize.

Backup plan: In the event Hanrahan's control issues continue, the Red Sox have a viable alternative in Andrew Bailey. Durability has long been an issue for the former Oakland closer, but when healthy, he has proven he can handle the ninth inning. … Koji Uehara, signed to a one-year deal in the offseason, held a 1.75 ERA and 0.64 WHIP in 36 innings last year. He carries health issues of his own, but he did briefly serve as Baltimore's closer in 2010 and could move up in the pecking order given Bailey's injury history. Alfredo Aceves saved 25 games for Boston last year, but we don't see them going down that road again.


i
[h=3]Chicago Cubs[/h]


The closer: Carlos Marmol is currently the unquestioned closer in Chicago, but how long will that last? The Cubs have reportedly told the reliever's agent to expect a trade at some point this season, and if/when that happens, there's no guarantee the hard-throwing right-hander will continue getting save chances in his new digs. His control issues went from bad (5.8 BB/9) in 2011 to worse (7.3 BB/9) last season, so the "blow-up risk" with Marmol is substantial whether he's in Chicago or elsewhere.

Backup plan: Signed to a two-year, $9.5 million contract in December, Kyuji Fujikawa figures to get the next crack at the closer gig if/when it becomes available. The Japanese import boasts an impressive résumé, which includes 202 career saves, a 1.36 ERA and 12.2 K/9 rate over his past six seasons in the Pacific League, though it's often difficult to determine how a pitcher's skills will translate to the major leagues. … Shawn Camp and James Russell could be dark horses for saves given that Marmol could be on his way out and Fujikawa is largely an unknown, but neither is draftable. … Rafael Dolis' brief look in the closer role last year didn't go well, so it's doubtful the Cubs would want to go that route again.


i
[h=3]Chicago White Sox[/h]


The closer: By most accounts, Addison Reed was a disappointment after taking over the closer job last May. While he saved 27 games, he finished the season with a 4.75 ERA and 1.36 WHIP, including a 5.63 ERA and 1.54 WHIP in the second half. That said, he's only 24 and posted a 12.9 K/9 rate and 1.7 BB/9 rate over his minor league career, so we still like his long-term upside. Plus, the fact the White Sox stuck with him through last year's struggles suggests they're committed to him in the ninth inning.

Backup plan: If Reed doesn't take a step forward in 2013, Matt Thornton figures to be next in line. The Pale Hose seem to prefer the southpaw in a setup role, though, so there are better handcuffs to take fliers on. Thornton has, however, been a consistent source of holds the past few seasons if that's helpful. … Frankly, it wouldn't be a surprise if Jesse Crain got the nod should Reed falter or get hurt, at least once he's healthy. Crain, who has been battling a groin issue this spring, also dealt with shoulder and oblique issues last season, but he posted a 2.44 ERA, 1.08 WHIP and 11.3 K/9 when healthy. … After a strong rookie campaign, Nate Jones could eventually work his way into the late innings.


i
[h=3]Cincinnati Reds[/h]


The closer: The initial plan this spring was to move Aroldis Chapman to the starting rotation, but the Reds announced in late March that he would be staying in the bullpen and handling the closing duties. We can debate whether this is really in the Reds' best interest, but Chapman saved 38 games for the Reds last year with a 1.51 ERA, 0.81 WHIP and 15.3 K/9 rate, so fantasy owners already know that, as a closer, he's one of the elite. The hard-throwing left-hander finished last season as the No. 3 closer and No. 16 player overall and deserves to be one of the first closers off the board.

Backup plan: The Reds are paying Jonathan Broxton $21 million over three years to be their primary setup man. His fantasy value will skyrocket if something happens to Chapman, but as things stand now, he's nothing more than a handcuff. After all, his 7.0 strikeout rate last year was a career low, so he won't do enough to help you if he's not getting saves. … Lefty Sean Marshall, who ceded the closer job to Chapman last May, gives the Reds yet another reliable late-inning option. He finished 2012 with a 2.51 ERA, 1.16 WHIP and 4.6 K/BB ratio, though he was more effective against left-handed batters (.173/.206/.196 versus lefties, 273/.344/.344 against righties).


i
[h=3]Cleveland Indians[/h]


The closer: At this time last year, there were questions about whether Chris Perez would be able hold on to the closer job in Cleveland. He answered those questions by saving a career-high 39 games, posting a career-best 2.5 BB/9 rate, and propelling his strikeout rate up to 9.2 (K's per 9) after it had fallen to 5.9 the previous year. While Perez has shown he has the skills needed to succeed in the closer role, he also has been rumored to be on the trade block. Perez had been battling a right shoulder strain this spring, but the shoulder is reportedly back to 100 percent, so he should be ready by Opening Day, barring any setbacks.

Backup plan: Given Perez's uncertain future, Vinnie Pestano, who sported a 2.57 ERA and 1.10 WHIP last year, is an intriguing option. In addition to potentially being in line for saves down the road, his 36 holds last season were second most in baseball. There's little doubt he would run with the closer job if it were handed to him. … After Pestano, guys like Joe Smith and Matt Albers will pitch some relevant relief innings, but neither profiles as a potential saves candidate.


i
[h=3]Colorado Rockies[/h]


The closer: Rafael Betancourt saved 31 games and posted a 2.81 ERA and 1.13 WHIP in his first full season as a closer, and he enters the 2013 season with a firm grip on the role. Fantasy owners should keep in mind, however, that the 37-year-old holds a mutual $4.25 million option for 2014, which he'll almost surely decline if he has another strong season. This means the Rockies may look to deal Betancourt at the deadline if they're struggling to compete in the National League West.

Backup plan: Rex Brothers is being groomed as the future ninth-inning man and could get a crack at the gig if Betancourt is traded. He throws hard and misses plenty of bats, though his 4.9 walk rate and .282/.376/.386 slash line versus right-handed batters last year are both red flags. … Offseason acquisition Wilton Lopez doesn't have the same strikeout potential (6.8 K/9 in his career), but his 1.6 career walk rate may make him a more reliable late-inning option for the Rockies. He also saved 10 games for the Astros last season, so the closer role isn't completely foreign to him.


i
[h=3]Detroit Tigers[/h]


The closer: Following Jose Valverde's implosion last season and eventual departure via free agency (he has yet to sign anywhere, but the Tigers have ruled out bringing him back), the closer job in Detroit is still somewhat up in the air. Rookie Bruce Rondon seems like the early favorite, but he still has plenty to prove. While the young right-hander throws gas and racked up 29 saves across three levels of the minors last year, he has pitched only eight innings above Double-A in his career (all at Triple-A), and often has trouble finding the plate (5.1 career minor league BB/9 rate). Rondon has plenty of upside in the ninth inning, but he also has plenty of risk.

Backup plan: Should the Tigers get gun-shy about handing the closer reins to a rookie, left-hander Phil Coke could make some sense. Yes, last year's 4.00 ERA and 1.65 WHIP were ugly, but he was 2-for-2 in save opportunities and allowed just one earned run in 10 postseason appearances (0.84 ERA) after replacing Valverde, which could still be fresh in manager Jim Leyland's mind. … Leyland said in the offseason that Joaquin Benoit wasn't a candidate to close, because he didn't think the right-hander could handle pitching back-to-back days. Even so, Benoit was impressive in 2012, boasting a 10.7 K/9 rate and 2.8 BB/9 rate in 73 appearances, so he could wind up being the team's best option. If nothing else, he's a valuable option in leagues that count holds, as he has finished top 10 in holds each of the past three seasons. … Octavio Dotel, the owner of 109 career saves, could enter the discussion at some point, as well. Finally, Al Alburquerque offers intriguing strikeout potential (13.5 K/9) and posted a 1.87 ERA and 1.13 WHIP in 56 2/3 innings with the Tigers over the past two seasons, but he'll need to improve his control (5.9 BB/9) if he's going to work himself into a more prominent role.


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[h=3]Houston Astros[/h]


The closer: Jose Veras is the favorite to close games in Houston after inking a one-year, $2 million contract with the team in December, though his skill set certainly doesn't scream "closer." He strikes out more than a batter per inning but has poor control (4.9 career BB/9 rate) and isn't adept at keeping runners off base (1.51 WHIP last year). According to recent live draft data, he's the 34th relief pitcher being selected, on average, and is being drafted in just 11.3 percent of standard mixed leagues. In other words, Veras may be cheap, but sometimes you get what you pay for.

Backup plan: Unfortunately, in terms of proven late-inning commodities, there's little else in the Astros' cupboard. Wesley Wright is coming off a strong 2012 season, but he has trouble getting right-handed hitters out consistently. There's also not much in Hector Ambriz's profile that says he's worthy of the job. Josh Fields, the first pick in December's Rule 5 draft, has no big league experience, but he did save 13 games with a 12.0 K/9 between Double- and Triple-A last year in the Red Sox organization and seemingly corrected the control issues that plagued him early in his pro career. Given what's ahead of him, it's not crazy to think he could get a crack at some point. … Rhiner Cruz, a Rule 5 pick from last season, had a rough 2012 (6.05 ERA, 1.71 WHIP), but he showed some flashes late in the year and could eventually work his way into the late innings. On nearly any other team, Cruz wouldn't even be worth discussing, but in Houston he's at least a name worth knowing.


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[h=3]Kansas City Royals[/h]


The closer: The Royals handed Greg Holland the closer role after Jonathan Broxton was shipped to Cincinnati at last year's trade deadline, and he ran with it, racking up 16 saves along with a 2.17 ERA after the All-Star break. His 12.2 K/9 ranked top 10 among relievers with at least 30 innings. Last year's 1.37 WHIP and 4.6 BB/9 rate might be worrisome on the surface, but his improvement in the second half (1.07 WHIP, 3.4 BB/9) should ease some of those concerns.

Backup plan: While Holland should have some leash to work with, there are multiple arms behind him who could handle the ninth inning, if necessary. Kelvin Herrera, owner of a heater that averaged 98.5 mph last season, was reportedly a candidate to replace the departed Broxton last year, so he could get the first look should something happen to Holland. Aaron Crow, who could still theoretically return to the starting rotation sometime down the road, showed improvement in his second big league season and has the skills to succeed in the role, too. Southpaw Tim Collins may be a long shot for saves, but his K/9 rate shot up from 8.1 in 2011 to 12.0 in 2012, and he's effective against both righties and lefties, so he could have some AL-only value.


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[h=3]Los Angeles Angels[/h]


The closer: The expectation is that Ryan Madson will step into the closer role when healthy, but as of now, he's still recovering from Tommy John surgery and won't be ready for Opening Day. This means Ernesto Frieri will open the season with the job. Frieri has his flaws, namely control issues and a high fly ball rate, but this is still a guy who saved 23 games in 2012 and finished the season with a 13.4 K/9 rate, not to mention a 2.32 ERA and 0.96 WHIP after being acquired from San Diego.

Backup plan: We still expect Madson to take over the closer job eventually, but nothing is set in stone. While Madson posted great numbers while accumulating 32 saves for the Phillies in 2011, many pitchers coming back from Tommy John surgery encounter control issues when they first return, and he still doesn't have a firm return date. It's possible -- maybe even likely -- that the Angels will ease Madson back into things instead of inserting him into the closer role immediately. And if Frieri is consistently locking things down in the ninth, who's to say they make a change at all? … Scott Downs shared the closer role with Frieri for a time last year, so he's likely third in the pecking order, though fellow lefty Sean Burnett was signed this offseason and has a similar skill set. … Kevin Jepsen is a long shot for saves, as well.


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[h=3]Los Angeles Dodgers[/h]


The closer: The Dodgers gave Brandon League "closer money" over the offseason -- three years, $22.5 million, with incentives that could push it up to $33.5 million -- so the job is his to lose. League doesn't have elite stuff by any means, as his career K/9 rate sits at just 6.7, but he generates plenty of ground balls, has 52 saves the past two seasons, and held a 2.30 ERA and 1.13 WHIP in 28 games with the Dodgers last year. Given the money invested, the former Mariner should have a long leash.

Backup plan: Many fantasy owners are skeptical about League's ability to hold the closer job all season, and most of that skepticism stems from their belief in setup man Kenley Jansen. Jansen is the superior pitcher in nearly every regard. In addition to notching 25 saves for the Dodgers in 2012, he sported a 2.35 ERA, 0.85 WHIP and 13.7 K/9. Don't reach for Jensen with the assumption that he'll eventually be closing out games, because he could very well stay in the setup role all season. That said, should he get the job, he does have elite potential. … Ronald Belisario is probably best equipped to be ninth-inning option No. 3, though the Dodgers have to be hoping it doesn't come to that.


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[h=3]Miami Marlins[/h]


The closer: The Marlins may have shipped off most of their useful parts over the offseason, but closer Steve Cishek, who racked up 15 saves last year following Heath Bell's implosion, remains in South Beach. While he's far from being a household name, he could be one of the better closer values in fantasy. Last year's 4.1 BB/9 rate wasn't great, but he struck out 9.6 hitters per nine innings and limits home runs, so he should perform well enough to stay in the role.

Backup plan: Jon Rauch figures to handle the eighth inning and could vulture a save here or there when Cishek is unavailable. The 6-foot-11 right-hander spent time in the closer role for both the Twins and Blue Jays in 2010 and 2011, respectively, so he has the experience to step in, if needed. … Left-hander Mike Dunn misses bats but does little else well, so we won't see him in the ninth inning unless multiple injuries strike.


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[h=3]Milwaukee Brewers[/h]


The closer: John Axford remains the closer in Milwaukee, though 2012 was a tumultuous season, to say the least. He walked 5.1 batters per nine innings, allowed a whopping 10 home runs and was temporarily removed from the closer role. On the bright side, he still whiffed hitters at a high rate (12.1 K/9) and converted 17 of his last 18 save opportunities. Axford has proven he can get the job done, but the road getting there is often bumpy. Backup plan: Should last year's walk and home run issues strike again, the Brewers may decide to go in another direction. Jim Henderson, who made his first big league appearance last year as a 29-year-old, has big-time strikeout ability (13.2 K/9 in 36 games last year), though, like Axford, walks can sometimes be a problem. Still, Henderson was the guy who stepped in last year when Axford was briefly demoted, so he could be asked to do the same in 2013 if the need arises. … Lefty Mike Gonzalez was a highly regarded closer once upon a time, making him a potential dark horse for saves should Axford falter.


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[h=3]Minnesota Twins[/h]


The closer: Glen Perkins figures to be the primary closer for the Twins in 2013. He shared the role with Jared Burton for a while last year after Matt Capps was shut down with a shoulder injury, but the left-hander received every one of the team's save chances from Aug. 5 on, finishing with 15 saves on the year. Currently being drafted as the 25th reliever off the board, Perkins was terrific in 2012, boasting a 9.9 K/9 rate and 2.1 BB/9 rate to go with his 2.56 ERA and 1.04 WHIP. He could be one of this year's better bargains.

Backup plan: Burton dramatically improved his walk rate last year after missing nearly the entire 2011 season due to a shoulder injury, and the result was a career-best 2.18 ERA and 0.92 WHIP. He could conceivably get another crack at saving games this year, particularly against right-handed heavy lineups, but he can still help fantasy teams even if he spends the whole year in a setup role. Casey Fien made a strong impression in his 35 appearances with the Twins last year, posting a 3.6 K/BB ratio along with a 2.06 ERA and 0.97 WHIP. Look for him to become a more integral piece of the bullpen this season.


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[h=3]New York Mets[/h]


The closer: With Frank Francisco unlikely to be ready for Opening Day due to an elbow injury, Bobby Parnell will be asked to hold down the ninth inning. Parnell isn't a dominant pitcher, as evidenced by his career 8.3 K/9 rate, but he saved seven games in relief of Francisco in 2012 and significantly knocked down his walk rate from the year before (4.1 to 2.6), so there's value here as long as he has the job.

Backup plan: The expectation is that Francisco will get the closer job back once he's healthy, but if Parnell is pitching well, it might be hard for the Mets to justify making a change, other than the fact they're paying Francisco $6.5 million this year to close games. While the 33-year-old notched 23 saves last year, his 5.53 ERA and 1.61 WHIP tell more of the story. Like last year, Francisco could net your team some saves, but he could very well damage your ERA and WHIP in the process. … Brandon Lyon probably shouldn't be closing games either, though he's probably more reliable than Francisco at this point. The former Astros closer fared quite well after being traded to Toronto last year, posting a 2.88 ERA and 1.12 WHIP in 30 games.


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[h=3]New York Yankees[/h]


The closer: The all-time saves leader is back! After missing nearly the entire 2012 season with a torn ACL in his right knee, Mariano Rivera is giving it a go one last time before he retires. He may be 43 years old coming off a major injury, but conventional wisdom can't be applied here. Every pitcher carries at least some risk, and Mo is no different, but he's still as good a bet as any to finish the year as a top-5 closer.

Backup plan: With Rafael Soriano out of the picture, David Robertson is now the unquestioned go-to guy after Rivera. Even if he never leaves the setup role, Robertson strikes out enough hitters (12.2 K/9 rate last year) and helps enough in ERA and WHIP to have fantasy value. Fantasy owners who need holds should also take note, as he has topped 30 holds each of the past two seasons and should again be near the top of the standings in 2013. … Joba Chamberlain doesn't figure to hold significant fantasy value this year, but he could once again be an integral part of the Yankees' bullpen. He made 22 appearances last year after returning from Tommy John surgery, and while he struggled initially, he seemingly found his groove in September (2.19 ERA, 0.89 WHIP, 11.7 K/9).


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[h=3]Oakland Athletics[/h]


The closer: Assuming he's healthy, Grant Balfour is the ninth-inning man for the A's. He's recovering from offseason knee surgery but is on track to be ready to go when the season starts. The right-hander did lose the closer role to Ryan Cook early on in 2012, but he reclaimed the gig in mid-August and converted all 17 of his save opportunities the rest of the way. While the strong finish is encouraging, Balfour sometimes struggles with consistency, and last year proved the A's aren't shy about pulling the plug if the going gets rough, so he's not the most stable of closer options. It's also worth noting that Balfour will be a free agent after the season, and the A's haven't been afraid to trade their closers in the past.

Backup plan: Cook may have saved 11 games for Oakland last season, but he still was unable to keep the job, eventually conceding the ninth-inning role back to Balfour. That's not to say Cook won't get another look if Balfour encounters more struggles in 2013, though. He finished the year with a 2.09 ERA, 0.94 WHIP and 80 K's in 73 innings, including a much-improved 1.5 BB/9 rate in the second half (4.9 BB/9 before the break), so the skills are there. … While Sean Doolittle is third in the pecking order, he shouldn't necessarily be ignored. In addition to being a great holds contributor, the southpaw showed great strikeout ability (11.4 K/9), limited walks (2.1 BB/9) and held right-handed hitters to a .195/.244/.242 slash line last year. He could move up the ranks as the season wears on.


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[h=3]Philadelphia Phillies[/h]


The closer: Jonathan Papelbon has saved at least 31 games in seven straight seasons, and he notched 38 last year in his first season in Philadelphia while sporting a 5.1 strikeout-to-walk ratio with a 2.31 ERA and 1.06 WHIP. He's one of the safest two or three closers in baseball, but he's also being drafted, on average, in the seventh round, so you're going to have to pay handsomely for his services.

Backup plan: Mike Adams, signed to a two-year, $12 million contract over the offseason, will serve as the primary setup man and would step into the closer role should something happen to Papelbon. The right-hander has just four saves in his career, but there's little reason to think he couldn't fill the closer role ably, even with a declining strikeout rate that fell to 7.7 last year. At the very least, he's a tremendous source of holds, with 97 over the past three years, the most in baseball. … Antonio Bastardo should help out in the holds department, as well. He racked up 26 last year and also provides plenty of strikeouts (81 in 52 innings in 2012).


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[h=3]Pittsburgh Pirates[/h]


The closer: Joel Hanrahan is out after being dealt to the Red Sox, and Jason Grilli is in. The 36-year-old has saved only five games in his career, but he should be able to handle the ninth inning just fine. Last year's career-high 13.8 K/9 rate was the fourth-best mark in baseball, thanks partly to improved velocity on his fastball, and his 3.4 BB/9 rate was also a career best. He did seem to fade down the stretch last year (6.52 ERA, 1.40 WHIP in September), which is a slight concern given his age. However, as the 21st reliever off the board, according to ESPN's live draft data, he looks to be one of this year's better closer values.

Backup plan: Mark Melancon's first -- and only -- season in Boston was a disaster, but he gets a fresh start in Pittsburgh, where he'll be the setup man behind Grilli. Keep in mind, Melancon saved 20 games for the Astros in 2011 along with a 2.78 ERA and 1.22 WHIP, and many of his underlying numbers last year were actually better than what he did in 2012, so there's reason for optimism. Should Grilli struggle in the closer role, Melancon could be a very cheap source of saves. … The 6-7 Jared Hughes could be third on the totem pole, but it's yet to be seen what kind of upside he has.


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[h=3]San Diego Padres[/h]


The closer: The closer role in San Diego belongs to Huston Street. The trouble is, he's rarely healthy enough to keep the job all season long; he has spent time on the DL each of the past three years. Street is an effective closer when he's on the mound, and last season's 10.9 strikeout rate was his best mark since 2007 with Oakland, but it's good to have an insurance plan if you roster him.

Backup plan: Because of Street's injury history, setup man Luke Gregerson is a good bet to tally at least a handful of saves in 2013 (he had nine last year in Street's absence). After his strikeout rate collapsed in 2011 (5.5 K/9), Gregerson rebounded last year (9.0 K/9) and went on to post a career-low 2.39 ERA. He's also a good bet for holds; he accumulated 24 last year, and his 40 holds in 2010 are a major league record. … Dale Thayer racked up seven saves himself last season when Street was on the DL, though Gregerson got all of the Padres' save chances over the final month of the season. Ultimately, we expect Gregerson to get the first crack at the ninth inning if/when Street gets hurt this year, but Thayer could once again work himself into the mix.


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[h=3]San Francisco Giants[/h]


The closer: Manager Bruce Bochy still seems somewhat hesitant about relying on Sergio Romo as his full-time closer, as he wants to keep the reliever's workload down in 2013. Fantasy owners may not like to hear that, but in Bochy's defense, the diminutive right-hander has topped 55 innings only once in his big league career, and he threw his slider nearly 62 percent of the time last year, according to FanGraphs.com, which can be very taxing on a pitcher's arm. Romo has all of the skills to be one of fantasy's top closers -- his 1.79 ERA, 0.85 WHIP and 6.3 K/BB ratio last year all speak to that -- but his upside could be held in check depending on how Bochy handles him.

Backup plan: Santiago Casilla served as the Giants' closer for an extended period of time last year -- his 25 saves led the team -- before eventually relinquishing the job to Romo, so he appears to be next in line. Aside from a rough stretch in June and July last year, Casilla was very effective, so he's not a bad guy to stash if you're a Romo owner. … That said, left-hander Javier Lopez makes things a little more complicated. While right-handed hitters give him fits (they hit .417 against him last year), Bochy isn't afraid to turn to Lopez in the ninth inning against left-handed heavy lineups, as evidenced by his seven saves in 2012. Lopez doesn't do enough elsewhere to be a real fantasy option, but he could vulture a few saves again this season.


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[h=3]Seattle Mariners[/h]


The closer: Tom Wilhelmsen is solidified in the closer role after being handed the reins to the ninth inning last June and saving 29 games in 34 opportunities. The 29-year-old misses bats (9.9 K/9 rate), induces ground balls (48.3 percent) and doesn't hand out too many free passes (3.3 BB/9). Aside from not having a long, proven track record, he's a solid closer option even though he's being drafted as just the 23rd reliever overall.

Backup plan: There's currently no clear-cut option behind Wilhelmsen. Stephen Pryor throws smoke and should have a role in the late innings, though he has only 23 big league innings under his belt and held a 5.1 walk rate in those 23 innings (not to mention a 4.7 BB/9 rate in 123 minor league innings), so he has work to do. … Like Pryor, Carter Capps' big league experience is sparse (25 innings), but he has better control (2.9 minor league BB/9 rate) in addition to a strong strikeout rate (12.5 K/9 in the minors; 10.1 in the majors). He may be the better bet if you're looking for Wilhelmsen's handcuff. … Left-hander Charlie Furbush, who posted a 2.72 ERA and 0.95 WHIP last year in his first full season as a reliever, can get both right- and left-handed hitters out, but he's a long shot for save chances.


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[h=3]St. Louis Cardinals[/h]


The closer: Jason Motte is the "guy" when healthy -- on average, he has been the third closer off the board, according to live draft results -- but he's expected to begin the season on the disabled list after suffering a mild strain in his pitching elbow. He'll return to the closer role when he's 100 percent, but as of this writing, there's no timetable for his return. In Motte's absence, Mitchell Boggs will handle the closing duties. Boggs is largely inexperienced in the role (only four career saves), but he should fill in adequately and deserves to be drafted in all formats.

Backup plan: With Motte's timetable uncertain and Boggs unproven in the ninth inning, Trevor Rosenthal is a guy to keep an eye on. While his long-term future may still lie in the starting rotation, he has proven he can be a dominant reliever. In 22 2/3 innings with the Cardinals last season, he and his high-90s fastball held a 2.78 ERA and 0.93 WHIP to go along with a 3.6 strikeout-to-walk ratio. There's definite sleeper potential here. … Edward Mujica isn't as exciting as the 22-year-old Rosenthal, but he has a longer track record and possesses great control (his walk rate hasn't surpassed 1.6 any of the past three years), so he could work his way into the discussion if Boggs can't hold things down until Motte returns.


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[h=3]Tampa Bay Rays[/h]


The closer: Fernando Rodney was arguably the biggest surprise in baseball last season. He posted a 0.60 ERA and 0.78 WHIP along with 48 saves and even garnered some Cy Young award attention. Needless to say, he'll once again handle the ninth inning for Tampa this season. We can't expect the 36-year-old to repeat last year's dominance, but the fact he improved his walk rate from 7.9 in 2011 to 1.8 last year tells us he turned a corner last year. As strange as it may sound, Rodney enters this season as one of the most trustworthy closers.

Backup plan: Jake McGee looks to be the Rays' closer of the future, and it's easy to see why after he sported a 1.95 ERA, 0.80 WHIP and 6.6 K/BB ratio in his first full season. He may not get any save opportunities this season, but he can still provide useful numbers in a setup role. In addition, McGee is someone to keep in mind for keeper leagues, as Rodney is a free agent after this year. … That said, Joel Peralta, who led baseball with 37 holds last season, could very well be the one to take over the ninth inning should something happen to Rodney. Although the long ball can sometimes be a problem, he posted an 11.3 K/9 and 2.3 BB/9 in 67 innings last year and could hold down the job, if needed. … Kyle Farnsworth, who tallied 25 saves for Tampa in 2011, is still on the team after missing significant time last year because of an elbow injury, but he's too far down in the pecking order right now to be relevant in fantasy.


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[h=3]Texas Rangers[/h]


The closer: Joe Nathan may be 38 years old, but you wouldn't know it from the numbers he put up last year. In addition to whiffing 10.9 hitters per nine innings, his 37 saves ranked fifth in the AL, and his 1.8 walk rate and 6.0 K/BB ratio were both career bests. He has tons of job security in Texas, so aside from his age, there's little reason not to trust him as a top-10 closer.

Backup plan: Jason Frasor, who signed a one-year deal with Texas in the offseason, is coming off a rough season in Toronto in which he held a 4.12 ERA and 1.47 WHIP and missed time because of a forearm injury. On the bright side, he did strike out 10.9 hitters per nine, which was a career best. With Joakim Soria working his way back from Tommy John surgery, Frasor will open the season as the primary setup man and handcuff to Nathan. … Barring any setbacks, Soria could return to action in May, though the Rangers may not feel comfortable trusting him as their eighth-inning guy right away. His health and performance should determine his role as the season goes on. … With Frasor coming off a down season and Soria on the DL, Tanner Scheppers could have a prominent role in the bullpen this year, though he still has plenty to prove at the big league level.


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[h=3]Toronto Blue Jays[/h]


The closer: Casey Janssen's status for the start of the season had been in doubt as he recovered from offseason shoulder surgery, but he made his first spring training appearance on March 22 and now looks on track to begin the season in the closer role, barring any setbacks between now and Opening Day. Janssen posted a 2.54 ERA and 0.86 WHIP with 22 saves for the Jays last year, and assuming full health, he has the skills to hold down the job.

Backup plan: With Janssen's outlook looking more and more positive, Sergio Santos, who underwent season-ending shoulder surgery in July, figures to be used in a setup role. That said, Santos saved 30 games for the White Sox in 2011 and was acquired by Toronto last offseason to serve as the team's closer (injuries limited him to only six appearances), so he could very well take over the gig at some point in 2013. … Steve Delabar, acquired from Seattle at the trade deadline last year, still has work to do, as he allows too many home runs (1.6 HR/9 last year) and posted a 4.6 BB/9 after joining the Blue Jays last year. However, last season's 12.6 strikeout rate suggests he could be a dominant late-inning option if he improves his control and learns to limit the long ball.


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[h=3]Washington Nationals[/h]


The closer: The Nationals appeared to be set in the late innings with Drew Storen and Tyler Clippard, but Rafael Soriano was still brought in on a two-year, $28 million contract to take over the ninth inning. Even with Storen and Clippard behind him, Soriano has plenty of job security because of the financial investment the Nats made to bring him in. Soriano has netted 87 saves in his past two full seasons as closer (2010 and 2012) and should have no shortage of opportunities in Washington.

Backup plan: Storen saved 43 games with a 2.75 ERA and 1.02 WHIP in 2011 and eventually reclaimed the closer job from Tyler Clippard in September after missing roughly half the season while recovering from elbow surgery, so he should be the next in line for saves should the 33-year-old Soriano get hurt. At the very least, Storen should rack up plenty of holds this year, but his value obviously takes a huge hit in standard formats with Soriano now in the fold. … The same goes for Clippard. While he racked up 32 saves last season in Storen's absence, his value is limited in the new bullpen hierarchy.
 

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[h=1]You Heard Me![/h][h=3]The Talented Mr. Roto makes his annual bold predictions[/h]
By Matthew Berry | ESPN.com

The part that people forget, of course, is that it's only the best part of sports.

It's why we watch, why we cheer, why we scream and why we cry.

The surprise, I mean. It's been a great NCAA tournament so far. Among the reasons? Wichita State, LaSalle and the Dunk City theatrics of Florida Gulf Coast. We love the unexpected. We love the big upset, the amazing performance. Look, I am not a Heat fan and I was among those piling on LeBron for his "Decision" and the bravado that accompanied it. But even I have to admit what he's doing is unreal. And it's why we love it.

The expected is ho-hum. But the out of the blue? The I-picked-up-Mike-Trout-and-he-led-me-to-a-title? That is what makes sports -- and fantasy -- so special. When the long shot works out.

This is the long shot column.

Everything else you have read, heard, watched and digested this preseason is steeped in scouting and stats. You may not agree with all of it, but I assure you, gentle reader, our projections, rankings, sleepers and busts are all backed by reasonable, well-thought-out, defensible analysis.


Except this.

This is pure, unadulterated gut-call time. This is a list of things that are unlikely to happen. But, as the owners of last year's No. 1 pitcher on our Player Rater -- 38-year-old knuckleballer R.A. Dickey -- will tell you, unlikely does not mean impossible.

I've written this column twice a year for many years now and I call it "You Heard Me!"

Like, we might be hanging out and I'd say something like, "I say RG III comes back, plays Week 1 and leads my Redskins to a Super Bowl."

And you'd be all, like, "Whaaaaat?"

And then I'd be all, "You heard me!"

It's a bold prediction. Now for a bold prediction to actually be bold, it has to be fairly unlikely to happen. Justin Verlander has 200 strikeouts? Not a bold prediction. Justin Verlander has an ERA over 5.00 and strikes out fewer than 140 while still making every start? Bold.

Some may see this piece as "fluff" or not helpful, but I think it's really helpful. You heard me. Last year in this column, I had some pretty good bold predictions: Edwin Encarnacion hits 34 home runs, Adam Dunn hits 40 (remember how bad he was in 2011?), Chris Perez (injured last preseason and rumored to be losing his job) finishes in the top five in saves and Dickey is a top-30 pitcher on the Player Rater, are among the bold calls I nailed. Because, at the time, even if it doesn't seem so in retrospect, they were bold.

Of course, I also predicted 50 home runs for Adrian Gonzalez, Aramis Ramirez as not being a top-15 third baseman and Francisco Liriano being a top-10 pitcher. Those are a few of the massive misses I had.

But like I said, this is high-risk, high-reward, unlikely-to-happen territory we are entering here. But here's how to use this column, other than using it to make yourself feel better about your own predictions ("at least I'm better than this guy") or your own writing (not gonna lie -- the intro here is similar to last year, too; only so many ways to introduce bold predictions).

The idea isn't that I nail highly improbable predictions, it's rather to identify players who I have a strong feeling on, one way or the other, from potential gems for the end game to guys to slightly upgrade/downgrade on your cheat sheets.

For example, last year I said in this piece that Alfonso Soriano would go 35/100, that Jason Kubel and Paul Goldschmidt would combine for 60 home runs and that Mark Trumbo would finish the year as a top-10 third baseman while hitting 30 home runs. Soriano went 32/108, the Arizona players combined for 50 and Trumbo never did qualify at third, finishing as a top-12 first baseman. So technically, I got all three predictions wrong, though I doubt anyone who drafted any of those guys very late was upset with what they got.
Now, the people who bought into me saying Erik Bedard would win the Cy Young, that Chris Heisey would hit 35 home runs or that Brian Matusz would be a top-30 pitcher on the Player Rater … they had every reason to be upset. Yeesh. They're not all winners, kids. But how much did those players cost you? Not much, beyond the opportunity to draft different lottery-ticket types.

Enough caveats for you? Good. I've done one prediction for each major league team along with some quick reasoning behind it. What you do with it after you read it is completely up to you.
Baltimore Orioles: Brian Roberts returns to being a top-10 second baseman this year. My thinking: Health is the issue, of course, but this is a guy with more than 700 plate appearances for three straight seasons from 2007 to 2009. He's having a good spring, and this is the healthiest he's been in years.

Boston Red Sox: 200 strikeouts and a sub-3.85 ERA for Felix Doubront. My thinking: Dude had a K/9 over nine last year, is having a good spring and is just 24. Another year in the bigs to work more innings and get his stuff under control.


New York Yankees: Kevin Youkilis goes 25/100, plays 150 games. My thinking: Hell hath no fury like a third baseman scorned. Pretty sure that's how it goes. Motivated by how it ended with the Red Sox, it makes no sense at all that, with the walking wounded that are the New York Yankees this year, one of the few healthy guys would be Kevin Youkilis. Which is why it'll happen. Skills are mostly still there.

Tampa Bay Rays: Matt Joyce hits 30 home runs. My thinking: If I keep putting him in this column, maybe it'll eventually come true. Worked for Edwin Encarnacion last year. Joyce makes either his third or fourth straight appearance here. I have yet to be right on him. But here's a bonus bold prediction: This is the year I am right on a breakout for Matt Joyce.

Toronto Blue Jays: Brandon Morrow finishes as a top-10 pitcher on the Player Rater. My thinking: Keeps improving every year, if he stays healthy the K's will be there, as will the wins.

Chicago White Sox: Hector Santiago joins the starting rotation, wins double-digit games and is a top-50 starting pitcher on the Player Rater. My thinking: Was actually a decent starter in the minors, they've already said they might use him against lefty-heavy lineups and it's not like the White Sox have a rotation that's impenetrable.

Cleveland Indians: Jason Kipnis is the No. 1 second baseman in fantasy this year. My thinking: The injuries on the Yankees are too much and hurt Robinson Cano's counting stats, Dustin Pedroia and Ian Kinsler have trouble staying healthy and Kipnis puts together a full year of what he did in the first half last season, rather than what he did in the second.

Detroit Tigers: Phil Coke saves 25 games. My thinking: They just sent Bruce Rondon down to the minors. Joaquin Benoit gave up too many home runs last year and is better suited to be a setup guy. Al Alburquerque is still inexperienced and walks too many. Octavio Dotel is Octavio Dotel. Meanwhile, Coke closed games in the playoffs when Jose Valverde faltered and had 51 strikeouts and just 18 walks in 54 innings last year.

Kansas City Royals: Ervin Santana wins 14 games, has a 3.50 ERA and strikes out 185. My thinking: We discussed this on the podcast last week and I rostered Santana on my AL Tout Wars team; I'm a believer. Underlying numbers last year were the same as the previous two, just got unlucky with home run/fly ball rate (OK, really unlucky) and strand rate. He's got something to prove.

Minnesota Twins: Aaron Hicks hits double-digit home runs and steals 30 bases. My thinking: Got the starting gig off a hot spring, they'll need to generate offense, he did steal 32 in Double-A last year and I don't even remotely believe any of the other bold predictions I came up with for this team. This one at least has a shot of coming true if Hicks keeps the starting job all year.

Houston Astros: Erik Bedard wins double-digit games, has an ERA under 4.00, a WHIP under 1.30 and more than 150 strikeouts. My thinking: He's my fantasy kryptonite, as Bill Simmons likes to say. Actually stayed healthy last year, but got unlucky with strand rate and his BABIP, to an extent. He still walked way too many, but hoping a return to the AL West actually helps. Not starting him at Texas or anything, but yeah, I can't quit Erik Bedard.

Los Angeles Angels: Mike Trout, Albert Pujols and Josh Hamilton are not among the top 20 players on the Player Rater at the end of the year. You heard me. My thinking: I'm hoping I'll be dead wrong. The Angels are my team. But remember, this is supposed to be bold. I'm worried about regression for Trout (average and power have to come down), the declining skills of Pujols and the injury history and free-falling K rate of Hamilton.

Oakland Athletics: Yoenis Cespedes goes .300/30/30. My thinking: Now adjusted to the Major Leagues, sky is the limit. Needs to get a little lucky with the batting average, but the A's are a better team around him than you think. Not great, but better than you think. Believe the hype.

Seattle Mariners: Hisashi Iwakuma is a top-20 starting pitcher on our Player Rater. My thinking: It's what I wrote in "Love/Hate." Had 16 starts last year with a 7.39 K/9 as a starter, with a 2.65 BB/9 and getting ground balls at a 50.9 percent clip. Only others to do that are David Price, Adam Wainwright and James Shields. He needs to get lucky with the wins to make this come true, but I do like him a lot.

Texas Rangers: 250 strikeouts and the AL Cy Young award for Yu Darvish. My thinking: Now adjusted to the MLB season and, more importantly, the MLB strike zone, he improves on last year's numbers, pitches more innings and is the guy we saw over his final seven starts (4-1, 2.13 ERA, 5.3 walk rate) for the whole year.

Atlanta Braves: 20 home runs for Evan Gattis. My thinking: If McCann can't get or stay healthy, Gattis can get hot with the bat and get the majority of the playing time. The pop is real, he just needs the at-bats. Plus, I've already talked about Kris Medlen for two straight years now, I should have at least one piece where I don't.

Miami Marlins: Justin Ruggiano goes 20/20. My thinking: He got lucky some last year and isn't a great player. But he'll hit in the middle of the lineup, they have no one else and just by sheer number of at-bats, he could fall into these numbers if the luck continues.

New York Mets: 200 strikeouts for Matt Harvey, who finishes among the top 20 starting pitchers on our Player Rater. My thinking: Has had a K/9 over nine at every level of the minors, including a K/9 over 10 in 59 innings last year. Gets the control under, er, control and sky's the limit.

Philadelphia Phillies: An ERA over 5, fewer than seven wins and a Player Rater finish outside the top 60 pitchers for Roy Halladay. My thinking: Sometimes you don't slow down when you reach the wall; sometimes you hit it hard and fast and when you do, it isn't pretty. Bonus one if you think Halladay is too easy: Domonic Brown goes 15/15 and flirts with 20/20 and a respectable average.

Washington Nationals: Ian Desmond is the No. 1 shortstop in fantasy this year. My thinking: I'm cheating. It's not that bold at all. He was actually the second-best shortstop last year, behind only Jose Reyes, it's just that no one realizes it (going in the seventh round). Troy Tulowitzki is still a health risk, Hanley Ramirez is already hurt and maybe Reyes takes some time to adjust to the AL. Meanwhile, Desmond keeps the average up while improving even more in power and homers. Still just 27.

Chicago Cubs: 220 strikeouts for Jeff Samardzija. My thinking: Skills are there, he just needs to throw about 45 more innings or so than last year.

Cincinnati Reds: Homer Bailey gets 17 wins, has 185 strikeouts and an ERA of 3.30. My thinking: Homer Bailey is another fantasy kryptonite for me, but he finally seemed to put it together for a full season last year. Now he takes the next step with a good bullpen behind him and underlying numbers heading in the right direction. FYI, came close to having a very positive Devin Mesoraco prediction in here.

Milwaukee Brewers: Rickie Weeks finishes as a top-four second baseman on our ESPN Player Rater. My thinking: Has looked good this spring and had more than 670 plate appearances last year. Rebounded in the second half last year after a tough start in the first half.

Pittsburgh Pirates: Jason Grilli, currently going 21st among relief pitchers, finishes the year as a top-three closer. You heard me. My thinking: Completely different pitcher the past two years, his strikeout rate (13.8 K/9 last year!) suggests a lot of value there along with just the saves. If he keeps the job all year, could see him being just behind Craig Kimbrel and Aroldis Chapman on the Player Rater.

St. Louis Cardinals: Allen Craig is the No. 1 fantasy first baseman. My thinking: Declining skills and possible injury on Pujols, maybe Joey Votto's power outage last year was more real than we think and maybe Prince Fielder gets unlucky with the batting average while keeping his power in the 28-to-30 homer range. Meanwhile, Craig stays healthy all year and has some gains in power and runs scored.

Arizona Diamondbacks: Paul Goldschmidt is the No. 1 fantasy first baseman. My thinking: I could easily be wrong about Craig above, and I really do love Goldschmidt, so I wanted to highlight him even more than I did in Love/Hate. If he continues running and the power and average grow a little … By the way, if forced to pick someone other than him, I would have gone with a positive Trevor Cahill prediction. I feel he's always underrated and is heading in the right direction.

Colorado Rockies: Eric Young Jr. steals 40 bases. My thinking: I can't do a Tyler Colvin prediction three years in a row. Quitting while I'm ahead. EY Jr. is cheap speed and, between injury and unproven players on the Rockies' roster, I see a lot of ways he could get playing time, in addition to just filling in on days off and pinch running.

Los Angeles Dodgers: Zack Greinke is not a top-30 pitcher this year. My thinking: Already had some slight injury issues, he's had stretches of inconsistency throughout his career. Has a reputation as being a bit fragile mentally, and living in Los Angeles with a ton of money can have an effect on people.

San Diego Padres: Andrew Cashner wins double-digit games, has more than 170 strikeouts and an ERA of under 3.50 with a WHIP of under 1.25. My thinking: The strikeouts are already there, with a K/9 of more than 10 last year. He had good control in the minors, but not yet in the majors. Another year in the bigs, a full-time rotation spot (I say he gets one) and a 97 mph fastball in Petco make for fantasy goodness.

San Francisco Giants: Tim Lincecum leads the Giants in saves. You heard me! My thinking: My most out-there one, but maybe Sergio Romo struggles with the gig over a full season and is better suited to setup. Meanwhile, Lincecum is terrible again in the rotation but becomes effective out of the bullpen.

There you have it. Season is just about to start. We know the unexpected awaits, these are some of the things I could see happening. What are yours? Let me read your best ones in the comments below or share them on my Facebook page or on Twitter.
 

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Pre-Opening Day injury update

Stephania Bell

With the regular season just about to start, here's a list of notable injury situations and their timetable for a return. Fantasy owners can and should adjust their lineups or draft strategies accordingly.

Notes:
1. All projections reflect expectations as of March 29 and should be considered fluid after that date.
2. Opening Day ready = Expected to be "active" on Opening Day, not necessarily in lineup on Opening Day. For pitchers, first game depends on where slotted in rotation.

Hitters

David Wright, 3B, New York Mets (Opening Day ready): Wright strained an intercostal (rib cage) muscle during the World Baseball Classic, but rest and rehab seem to have done the trick. Potential for setback in the first few weeks exists, but this guy rarely misses time.

Brett Lawrie, 3B, Toronto Blue Jays (due back April): Intercostal strain will sideline him into the first week or two of the season, but a cautious return should help prevent a setback. Bigger concern is tendency to play with reckless abandon. Fun to watch, but may increase risk.

Pablo Sandoval, 3B, San Francisco Giants (Opening Day ready): An irritated ulnar nerve forced Panda to rest for several days in March, but he claims he's ready to return. I admire his enthusiasm but can't say definitively that this is behind him.

Chase Headley, 3B, San Diego Padres (due back late April): Left thumb fracture will delay Headley's regular-season debut by about a month. The good news is that it shouldn't hinder him after he returns.

Curtis Granderson, OF, New York Yankees (due back mid-May): No surgery needed for Granderson's small fracture. No reason to worry about his ability to produce once he returns to the lineup.

Hanley Ramirez, SS/3B, Los Angeles Dodgers (due back mid- to late-May): Ramirez will miss a couple months of playing time following surgery to repair his torn thumb ligament. The concern is that his performance at the plate could suffer a bit longer.

David Freese, 3B, St. Louis Cardinals (due back April): His back injury doesn't appear serious, but the Cardinals want Freese to see more at-bats before his regular-season debut. Recurrence is possible, but the minor nature of this episode keeps the worry factor low.

David Ortiz, DH, Boston Red Sox (no timetable): Ortiz continues to have trouble with his Achilles, despite trying to address it in the offseason. Although he's now swinging the bat, it's hard to imagine him being fully healthy for any long stretches.

Derek Jeter, SS, New York Yankees (due back April): Jeter's post-surgery soreness is not unusual. In fact, it will likely take a few months for his ankle to feel normal again. He may return in April but he may not really return until June.

Mark Teixeira, 1B, New York Yankees (due back May/June): A partially torn tendon sheath is what Jose Bautista had & and then he had surgery. Teixeira's wrist may heal with rest, but if it doesn't, the power on the left side of the plate won't be there and he may not last long, either.

Corey Hart, 1B/OF, Milwaukee Brewers (due back May): The key to Hart's post-surgical knee staying healthy is not returning too soon. The team has been good about controlling his activity thus far, so don't expect them to rush him now. Late May is the most likely scenario.
Brian McCann, C, Atlanta Braves (due back April/May): He's recently returned to hitting, but restrictions on McCann's post-labral repaired throwing shoulder remain in place. Once he returns, it may take a bit to ramp up, but look for a strong second half.

Alex Rodriguez, 3B, New York Yankees (due back around All-Star Break): If he's rehabbing as diligently as he says, Rodriguez should be poised for an uneventful return. The hip may be healthy, but he's still an aging player with mounting injury concerns.

[h=3]Starting Pitchers[/h]
For a more thorough progress report of pitchers returning from injury or surgery, see this blog entry.

Zack Greinke, Los Angeles Dodgers (Opening Day ready): Right elbow inflammation in the spring should scare a team that spent $147 million and fantasy owners alike. Greinke says the elbow feels OK, but his performance is shaky. It's not exactly confidence-inspiring.

Jaime Garcia, St. Louis Cardinals (Opening Day ready): He opted for rehab instead of surgery for a small (left) rotator cuff tear and has been fine through a handful of spring outings. Starting season strong, but will he last?

Roy Halladay, Philadelphia Phillies (Opening Day ready): Halladay insists there's no injury, but his performance this spring is a concern. Last year he said there was no injury, either. Then he went on the DL and missed nearly two months. This could be the start of the talented veteran's decline.

C.J. Wilson, Los Angeles Angels (Opening Day ready): Underwent arthroscopic surgery in October to address a bone spur and has had no issues with the elbow this spring. Consider this: He's had only two DL stints in his big league career. Aging but durable. Low level of concern.

Phil Hughes, New York Yankees (due back early April): A bulging disc in his back derailed Hughes' spring. He has bounced back quickly, but let's face it, injuries are always going to be a concern with Hughes.

Matt Garza, Chicago Cubs (due back May): Ended last season with stress fracture in right elbow, started this spring with strained lat. Sum total of injuries raises concern.

Shaun Marcum, New York Mets (Opening Day uncertain): Elbow issues last year, now shoulder and neck this spring. Don't like where this is headed. Even if he avoids the DL now, it may only be a matter of time.

Brandon Beachy, Atlanta Braves (due back June/July): On track post-Tommy John surgery. No major concerns, just temper expectations to the typical ups and downs of the first year back.

[h=3]Relief Pitchers[/h]<INLINE1></INLINE1>

Jason Motte, St. Louis Cardinals (no timetable, expected to start season on DL): Diagnosed with a "small" tear in his flexor tendon, Motte is reportedly feeling better. He will have to prove he can throw without pain before returning, then hope the injury doesn't worsen across the season.

Ryan Madson, Los Angeles Angels (due back April): After Tommy John surgery last April, Madson is closing in on a return. But the normal inconsistencies that a pitcher first displays after this operation -- and a guy named Ernesto Frieri -- suggest Madson isn't a lock to close.

Casey Janssen, Toronto Blue Jays (Opening Day ready): After November surgery on his AC joint, a slow spring initially threatened Janssen's Opening Day status. He's recently turned a corner but there's still a bit of concern about how an uptick in work (think: frequency) will affect him.
 

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Guys to target in fantasy baseball
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Buster Olney

Friends who play fantasy baseball ask me all the time about possible picks, and while I don't know about value relative to the rounds in a fantasy draft in the way Eric Karabell or Matthew Berry do, these are some of the names I've mentioned to them -- players who aren't necessarily at the top of rankings.

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1. Paul Maholm | LHP, Atlanta Braves


He doesn't throw particularly hard and he's had middling success so far in his career. But he's a smart guy who, at 30, has accumulated a lot of knowledge, and there's something about him that reminds me of Jamie Moyer in how he seems to be gradually figuring out how to get maximum use out of the pitching weapons he has. Last year, the percentage of fastballs he threw dropped dramatically, from 52.2 percent to 41.4 percent, and the number of sliders increased to a career-high 30.4 percent -- and his strikeout-to-walk ratio jumped significantly, to 2.64. He has started to learn how to use hitters' natural anxiety against them.
<OFFER>After posting a 3.66 ERA for the Pirates in 2011, he had a 3.67 ERA for the Cubs and Braves in 2012, and in 2013, he'll be pitching in front of some really good defensive infielders, in Andrelton Simmons and Freddie Freeman, and a pretty good defensive outfield, in Jason Heyward, B.J. Upton and Justin Upton.

I don't think he's ever going to win a Cy Young Award, but he could have a pretty good season.

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2. Josh Beckett | RHP, Los Angeles Dodgers


All the elements are in place for a major statistical bounce-back season: He's switching from the heavy-hitting AL East to the lighter lineup fare of the NL West, and like a lot of veteran pitchers, he'll make good use of the pitcher's spot in deciding whom to work to as he faces the middle of the order with runners on base. Plus, Dodger Stadium is a pitcher's dream, with the distant outfield fences and the night air. It's a small sample size, but in his three starts in his new home ballpark after being traded by Boston last year, Beckett allowed three runs and struck out 20 in 18 innings. This will be a very different place for him than Fenway Park, if he can stay healthy.

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3. Elvis Andrus | SS, Texas Rangers


For starters, he's a good player already, an All-Star, and one of the best shortstops in the game. But while he has played in two World Series and has more than 2,000 at-bats in the big leagues, he's still just 24 years old, and he seems to be like Yadier Molina, learning more and more about hitting. And he's not some pipsqueak middle infielder. He's something in the range of 205 pounds, and he seems to be learning how to drive the ball more and more; I wonder if his career arc as a hitter will be something like that of Jimmy Rollins.
In 2010 he had 18 extra-base hits and a .643 OPS, and last year those numbers were 43 and .727, respectively. You could see a year coming up when he racks up 60 extra-base hits and has a much greater impact offensively.
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4. Matt Carpenter | IF, St. Louis Cardinals

Some guys just know how to hit, and no matter what other questions there are about them, their ability to produce at the plate does not waver. Carpenter seems to be one of those guys. The guy has never been a top prospect, having been picked in the 13th round in 2009, but at every level, Carpenter has hit. He had 1,448 plate appearances in the minor leagues and had just about as many walks (210) as strikeouts (212). He swings the bat and makes contact, which is why he had an on-base percentage over .400 at just about every level in the minors.

Going into last season, Carpenter had only 19 plate appearances in the big leagues, and yet St. Louis decided to open the year with him on its bench, projected as a pinch hitter -- which is extremely rare. Teams don't usually count on unproven players as primary bench guys, because playing irregularly usually damages their production. Why did the Cardinals keep him? Because he hits. And in 114 games, Carpenter batted .294 with a .365 on-base percentage, and 33 extra-base hits.

Because of David Freese's back trouble, Carpenter is set to open this year at third base, and if Freese comes back, Carpenter will move to second. I don't know if that move will be permanent, or if the Cardinals will have to find some other spot. But I do think this: He's going to hit. Because some guys just know how to hit, and given unusual ability in his craft, I'd bet that he'll be one of those guys who gradually learns how to hit for more power, as he picks more spots to be aggressive.

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5. Justin Smoak | 1B, Seattle Mariners


There are two types of fool's gold in baseball. One can be found in September, when rosters are watered down and some players have mentally checked out, and the other can be located in spring training -- especially in the Cactus League, where the air is thin and the ball just flies. Smoak is essentially presenting the baseball world with both types of fool's gold: He erupted last September, after summer-long struggles, posting a .426 on-base percentage, and he carried that success over into the Mariners' camp this spring, where he hit .434, with an on-base percentage of close to .500.
I'm not saying that Smoak has transformed into the next Ted Williams, and I'm not saying he's an All-Star caliber player. What I am saying is that scouts have liked his swing for years, which is why he was a first-round draft pick, and that they do think he's doing a better job at putting himself in position to hit. The fact that Smoak will finally be surrounded by some experienced middle-of-the-order hitters, such as Kendrys Morales and Michael Morse, can only help him, because there have been times when he has been Seattle's only legitimate power hitter. There will be more pressure on opposing pitchers this year, and I think Smoak will be part of that.

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6. Jon Lester | LHP, Boston Red Sox


Some players are masters of stoicism, so resolute in their outward demeanor that you can't really read how they are feeling about themselves. Tim Hudson can be an example of this; Mariano Rivera, for sure.
But Lester tends to be on the other end of this extreme, with every emotion spilling out of him pitch to pitch -- every disagreement over a ball-strike interpretation with the umpire, every bit of unhappiness over decision-making by his manager. Players with other teams remarked last summer about he often stared down his former manager, Bobby Valentine, as pitching changes were made.
Well, it's a new year, a new challenge, and some rival evaluators are seeing a new Lester on the mound -- a more focused Lester, a less distracted version of him.

Last year, his ERA rocketed to 4.82, including a 5.23 ERA in the second half. He's better than that, and my guess is that we'll see a lot more of that, and less of Lester's outward frustration.

mlb_g_gattis1x_65.jpg



7. Evan Gattis | C/OF, Atlanta Braves


Gerald Laird has been nicked up with a calf injury, Brian McCann is still building up arm strength … which makes you wonder if Gattis will wind up getting a fair amount of games (50? 60?) at catcher this season. And he hits with big-time power.

[h=3]The Rondon decision[/h]
The Detroit Tigers sent Bruce Rondon to the minors to start the year. Hey, if they think he could benefit from a few more baby steps in the minors, why not? They've got a lot of time to fix the closer issue, and as I've written here a couple of times, Phil Coke did look comfortable finishing games during the postseason last year.

The closer job is up for grabs, writes Lynn Henning.

[h=3]At the movies[/h]
Yankees General Manager Brian Cashman gave another news conference the other day to discuss another injury, surrounded by reporters asking questions about a situation that has seemed increasingly dire. First it was Curtis Granderson, then it was Mark Teixeira, and lately it has been all about Derek Jeter.

Cashman has stood there time and again -- actually, with one leg propped on a wheelie thing, because he shattered a leg while skydiving this spring -- and watching this the other day, an appropriate movie scene popped into my head. Which got me to thinking, about other teams and players ...

The Dodgers' new management mantra.
This might as well be Bryce Harper, the most confident player on a very confident team.
This is what Roy Halladay has been coping with.

The Padres, a team that seems constantly ravaged by injuries. (In a related note: A San Diego infielder will miss six weeks.)

This is a saying most applicable to the Red Sox of 2012. But not so much this year.

The fans of the Pirates and Royals understand this.

The Marlins.

The low-revenue clubs like the Athletics and Rays, in dealing with big-market teams.
Robinson Cano, circa 2013.

This is Mike Trout.

The Twins' plan for their 2013 pitching staff.

The Houston Astros' outlook.

And while we're at it, it's worth remembering what this great game is.

[h=3]Santana's injury[/h]
In the first minutes and hours after Johan Santana threw 134 pitches to complete a no-hitter last summer, Terry Collins fretted about whether he had done the right thing in leaving the pitcher in the game. He knew, as the game played out, what could be at stake for an aging pitcher coming back from a shoulder operation.

This debate will never be resolved to anyone's complete satisfaction, because there's no way to know exactly when Santana tore his shoulder capsule for a second time; he probably will miss all of 2013, and it may be that he will never pitch in the big leagues again.

But I'd bet the family farm on this, because of the type of competitor that Santana always has been and always will be: When he's 70 years old and answering questions from his grandkids about his career, he will have no regrets about that night against the Cardinals. And he will know that even with the benefit of 20-20 hindsight, he would go back out for the ninth inning if he had a chance to do it all over again.

This was the most expensive no-hitter every thrown, writes Mike Lupica.

[h=3]Moves, deals and decisions[/h]
1. The Giants announced the extensions for Brian Sabean and Bruce Bochy. Both are now signed for the next four seasons, and it's worth noting how far up the ladder of all-time wins leaders Bochy could be within that time. He's currently 23rd, and if the Giants win half their games in the next four years, he'll probably leap to 15th.

Bochy and Sabean are the Giants now, writes Tim Kawakami.

2. The Rockies have cut Ramon Hernandez. I wonder if he'd be a fit with the Giants, given his history playing for Bochy, when both were with the Padres.

3. Miguel Olivo re-signed with the Marlins.

4. The Astros set their roster.

5. The Rangers hope to trade Julio Borbon.

6. Ryan Sweeney is out, having been told he's not going to be on Boston's 40-man roster.

7. It looks as though Lyle Overbay is going to make the Yankees' roster.

8. The Brewers are leaning toward a 13-man pitching staff.

9. Oakland has one big decision remaining, writes Susan Slusser.

10. Charlie Manuel's status will hang over the Phillies all year, writes Matt Gelb.
[h=3]The battle for jobs[/h]
1. Nolan Arenado lost his bid to be the Rockies' third baseman.

2. Jason Bay might have the edge for the Mariners' last outfield spot.

3. Chris Coghlan made the Marlins' roster.

4. A couple of youngsters made the Texas bullpen.

[h=3]Dings and dents[/h]
1. Jonny Venters is going to see James Andrews.
[h=3]Thursday's games[/h]
1. Kyle Lohse made his Brewers debut, and felt good about it.

2. Lance Lynn went back to some old drills.

3. Justin Masterson looks ready to go.

4. Tim Lincecum had another rough go of it in spring training, but says he's ready.

[h=3]NL East[/h]
• Gio Gonzalez says the Nationals are mentally ready.

• The Nationals have packed up and headed home.

• The future is now for the Phillies, writes Bob Brookover.

[h=3]NL Central[/h]
• Adam Wainwright and the Cardinals cemented faith in each other.

• A.J. Burnett is done rehashing what happened to the Pirates last year.

• The Pirates' grounds crew has been dealing with some inclement weather.

• Optimism abounds for the Reds, writes Paul Daugherty.

• Joey Votto has taken a new approach to sliding, writes Tim Schmitt.

[h=3]NL West[/h]
• Trevor Cahill is ready for his first start.

• A Dodgers rookie impressed.

[h=3]AL East[/h]
• It has been a happy few days for J.A. Happ. Ricky Romero is upset about his demotion, writes John Lott. From his story, there is this from Romero:
"You get knocked down like that right after the game, it's something you don't expect," Romero said during his first interview since his demotion. "It hurts and it hits me to the bottom of my heart, because I care so much and I've worked so hard for everything I have."

His first reaction: "'Is this supposed to help my confidence?' When it first happens, you're kind of like, 'Whoa.' A million thoughts go through your head. I don't know if you guys have ever been fired from a job, and you go and sit at home and say, 'What the hell did I do wrong?'"
More:
He claimed he is not angry at general manager Alex Anthopoulos or manager John Gibbons or the coaches who eventually bought into the unanimous decision to send him down. But he adamantly disagrees with their assessment.

"In no way, shape or form do I want to be here, and I don't have to agree with the decisions they make," he said.

And later: "I don't belong here, to be honest with you. This is not for me. I'm a big-league pitcher and I'm confident in all my capabilities that I can get up there and help that team win."
• It appears Jackie Bradley Jr. will face the Yankees on Opening Day. John Farrell says he's not afraid to keep Bradley.

• Jake Arrieta says this is the year.

• The Yankees are a wreck as they head north, writes Joel Sherman.

• No matter who the Rays' No. 5 starter is, seven innings is wanted from that guy.

• The Rays are feeling better about their depth.

[h=3]AL Central[/h]
• The Royals' roster is set, except for one spot.

• Joe Mauer and his pitchers will bond on the go.

• The Indians are expecting a winner, writes Terry Pluto.
• Jake Peavy has been working a lot on his legs.

[h=3]AL West[/h]
• Ryan Madson is not quite ready to go.

• Jered Weaver holds the hope of the Angels in his hand, writes Jeff Miller.

[h=3]Other stuff[/h]
• There is sad news about a former Orioles catcher.

• Talks about renovations at Wrigley Field have hit a snag.

• A top Mets prospect was involved in an on-field incident, writes Andy Martino.

• Norm Hitzges writes that Nolan Ryan has better things to do in his life than to be a Rangers mascot.

• Larry Stone runs through some spring training winners and losers.

• Craig Breslow wants fairness in assessing player charities, as he writes in this op-ed piece for the Boston Globe.

And today will be better than yesterday.
 

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Fernandez, Bradley have potential, but ...
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Eric Karabell

Well before the Sunday night surprise of the Houston Astros knocking off the mighty Texas Rangers to open the 2013 season, a few big league teams surprised many by promoting top prospects to the majors. A few weeks ago, it would have seemed awfully unlikely and premature for Miami Marlins right-hander Jose Fernandez and Boston Red Sox outfielder Jackie Bradley to start this season under the bright lights of the big leagues, but it's not an April Fools' joke, and fantasy owners seem wisely curious about the repercussions.
<OFFER>I'm generally cautious about trusting young, inexperienced players for fantasy purposes, but I cannot ignore the talent and opportunity Fernandez and Bradley are getting. In a standard, 10-team league, I wouldn't part with anyone ranked in my top 200, but there's certainly no harm in adding them for a final roster spot if that's not the case. As always, it depends on whom you're jettisoning to free agency to make room. Just be careful here, because the chances of these youngsters thriving initially and carrying fantasy rosters -- they're not Mike Trout and Bryce Harper -- is not, sorry to say, overwhelming.


Fernandez is 20. Yes, Trout and Harper were awesome last season prior to legal drinking age, but this right-hander has never appeared in a minor league game above Single-A ball. Frankly, it's mystifying that the Marlins, in the embarrassing state they're in, would start the time clock of a top prospect right now, while the other Florida team likely will wait months before promoting slugging outfielder Wil Myers, who seems ready. The Marlins aren't contenders. Fernandez dominated in the minors last year, but he was also sent packing from spring training more than two weeks ago after throwing only two innings with the big league club. It's stunning that he's scheduled to get the call to pitch Sunday at Citi Field against the New York Mets. Right-handers Nate Eovaldi and Henderson Alvarez, neither of whom was listed as hurt before the weekend, are now on the disabled list and expected to miss April, creating the void, but I'm still thinking this is only a short-term opportunity.

While Fernandez was highly touted -- he was the No. 16 overall prospect by colleague Keith Law -- he's still the same guy who hurled for the Greensboro Grasshoppers and Jupiter Hammerheads in 2012. Despite his gaudy numbers, I wouldn't cut any pitchers in my big league top 60 to acquire Fernandez. I also wouldn't cut fellow prospects with a good shot of pitching in the big leagues this year, such as Trevor Bauer and Gerrit Cole. I would, depending on the makeup of my rotation, part with pitchers seemingly devoid of significant upside, such as Ross Detwiler and Shaun Marcum, as well as Bronson Arroyo, Clayton Richard and Vance Worley, to get him, because if Fernandez struggles or gets demoted, there's so much pitching depth for a standard league, it's not hard to find similar options. Fernandez has upside, and perhaps he'll dazzle the Mets, but he's probably not ready for what the Marlins have done here in promoting him. I can't begin to accurately project his numbers; if he makes 25 starts, I'd say an ERA in the high 3s with perhaps a strikeout per inning, but I don't expect close to 25 starts from him.


As for Bradley, 22 and a bit more experienced, I'm a bit more optimistic, but fantasy owners should also know what they're getting, and it's not equivalent to a potential ace, as Fernandez could be. Again, this is not Trout or Harper. Bradley doesn't have nearly that type of power. He's fast and has excellent plate discipline, which should result in a safe batting average and modest stolen base totals (not Michael Bourn, but perhaps 30 steals soon), but the numbers we all see from spring training (.419 batting average, 2 homers, 2 steals) should not be trusted as a harbinger. Frankly, it's surprising the Red Sox would promote him so quickly based on four weeks of games that don't count. Regardless, Bradley has become somewhat of a cult hero in Boston, and he's not pushing anyone significant out of work, so why not? Jonny Gomes, far from a Gold Glover, can assume designated hitter duties, along with Mike Carp, now that David Ortiz is on the DL. That stint could be a few weeks or a few months, it's hard to tell, but if Bradley doesn't hit, it's unlikely the Red Sox would let him keep struggling.

As with Fernandez, I wouldn't cut a top-60 outfielder to sign Bradley, Law's No. 40 prospect. There are 60 outfielders owned in at least 88 percent of ESPN standard leagues. After that, I'd start considering it based on the player and your team needs. For example, ESPN Fantasy projects Gomes for 17 home runs, but little else statistically helpful. I'd cut him for Bradley, because if Bradley is in the majors for only a few weeks, there are Gomes types available if you need to replace him. David Murphy, Denard Span and Jon Jay are proven players, safe statistically and for playing time, while Starling Marte, Aaron Hicks, Myers and even the injured Adam Eaton bring significant upside as well. I'd keep them. I'd cut modest power types who do not run and do not help in batting average, like Gomes, Ryan Ludwick, Raul Ibanez and Lucas Duda, to find out about Bradley, though. I just can't see Bradley hitting close to .300 in the big leagues or stealing many bases this early in his development.
</OFFER>
 

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Fantasy daily notes for April 1

By Brian Gramling, Special to ESPN.com

Welcome to the first edition of 2013 Daily Notes, which will now appear every day of the MLB regular season, instead of six days per week last year. In this column, we will set up the forthcoming day in baseball with a focus on the starting pitchers, ranking them from most desirable to least desirable with help from the ESPN.com Ratings that consider the opponent, ballpark and recent history of each hurler. Daily Notes will also highlight key injuries and lineup news to help you set your fantasy lineup. This column will especially aid fantasy owners in daily transaction leagues or contests that allow you to choose a different roster every day under a certain assigned salary cap. It will also help you win ESPN.com's weekly Baseball Challenge contest, but while this column focuses on the daily happenings, Tristan H. Cockcroft's Fantasy Forecaster gets you ready for the entire week ahead.
<STYLE type=text/css>.mod-inline td img {margin: 0px;}</STYLE>
<CENTER>[h=3]Starting pitcher rankings for April 1[/h]</CENTER>
<CENTER></CENTER><CENTER>2013 Spring Training </CENTER><CENTER>2012 Statistics </CENTER>
<CENTER>Rk </CENTER><CENTER>Team </CENTER>Name <CENTER>T </CENTER><CENTER>Opp </CENTER><CENTER>QR </CENTER><CENTER>W-L </CENTER><CENTER>ERA </CENTER><CENTER>WHIP </CENTER><CENTER>W-L </CENTER><CENTER>ERA </CENTER><CENTER>WHIP </CENTER>
1
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Stephen Strasburg R MIA 10 0-3 4.62 1.34 15-6 3.16 1.15
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Justin Verlander R @MIN 10 1-3 4.01 0.93 17-8 2.64 1.06
3
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Clayton Kershaw L SF 10 2-3 4.18 1.36 14-9 2.53 1.02
4
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Felix Hernandez R @OAK 10 1-1 2.65 0.94 13-9 3.06 1.14
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Matt Cain R @LAD 10 2-3 4.5 1.45 16-5 2.79 1.04
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Cole Hamels L @ATL 9 3-0 0.95 0.79 17-6 3.05 1.12
7
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Jeff Samardzija R @PIT 8 2-1 3.51 1.21 9-13 3.81 1.22
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Jered Weaver R @CIN 10 0-0 5.4 1.2 20-5 2.81 1.02
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Brett Anderson L SEA 10 1-0 6.75 1.58 4-2 2.57 1.03
10
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Chris Sale L KC 8 4-0 3.86 0.9 17-8 3.05 1.14
11
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Adam Wainwright R @ARI 8 4-1 3 1.26 14-13 3.94 1.25
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Jon Lester L @NYY 5 3-0 0.75 0.5 9-14 4.82 1.38
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Johnny Cueto R LAA 7 2-1 5.16 1.37 19-9 2.78 1.17
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Tim Hudson R PHI 9 2-1 3.9 1.3 16-7 3.62 1.21
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CC Sabathia L BOS 7 0-0 5.4 1.8 15-6 3.38 1.14
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A.J. Burnett R CHC 5 0-2 7.36 1.55 16-10 3.51 1.24
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Edinson Volquez R @NYM 5 1-0 7 2.22 11-11 4.14 1.45
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Yovani Gallardo R COL 6 1-2 3.54 1.08 16-9 3.66 1.3
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Jonathon Niese L SD 6 -- -- -- 13-9 3.4 1.17
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Ian Kennedy R STL 5 0-2 4.67 1.21 15-12 4.02 1.3
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James Shields R @CWS 6 2-1 6.75 1.45 15-10 3.52 1.17
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Vance Worley R DET 4 0-1 5.73 1.68 6-9 4.2 1.51
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Ricky Nolasco R @WSH 4 -- -- -- 12-13 4.48 1.37
24
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Jhoulys Chacin R @MIL 5 0-2 8.44 1.81 3-5 4.43 1.62

<THEAD>
</THEAD><THEAD>
</THEAD><TBODY>
</TBODY>
Some of the data used to generate this chart is derived from Baseball Musings' Day-by-day database.

Rk.: The author's ranking of that pitcher for that day only. T: Pitcher throws left-handed or right-handed. Opp: The pitcher's opponent for the day. QR: "Quality Rating," or the starting pitcher's matchup rating -- separate from the author's ranking -- which accounts for past history (three years' worth as well as past 21 days), opponent and ballpark. OPS is the primary statistic used in the calculation. Ratings range from 1-10, with 10 representing the best possible matchup, statistically speaking, and 1 representing the worst. So, for example, a 10 is a must-start rating, while a 1 should be avoided (if possible); a 1-2 is poor, 3-4 is fair, 5-6 is average, 7-8 is very good and 9-10 is excellent. W-L: Pitcher's win-loss record. ERA: Pitcher's earned run average. WHIP: Pitcher's average number of walks plus hits surrendered per inning.


[h=3]Pitching notes[/h]Rather than pointing out the obvious and discussing what to expect from aces like Stephen Strasburg, Justin Verlander, Clayton Kershaw and Felix Hernandez, who will always be in your starting lineup regardless of what ballpark's mound they are throwing upon that day, this column digs deeper to find quality pitchers who are still likely to be on your waiver wire, or could be a low-dollar play in salary-cap leagues.
Opening Day is not surprisingly chock full of aces that every fantasy owner would want to have in his/her starting lineup. Of the 24 starters on Monday, 19 are owned in 100 percent of ESPN.com fantasy leagues, while A.J. Burnett is owned in 98 percent of the ESPN universe. All 20 of these majority-owned arms will be in good enough situations to thrive on Monday. Jon Lester might have the toughest venue in the Bronx, but with a New York Yankees lineup missing injured stars Curtis Granderson, Mark Teixeira, Derek Jeter and Alex Rodriguez, Lester should be able to build upon his career numbers of 6-2, 2.50 ERA and 1.22 WHIP in 11 starts at new Yankee Stadium. Lester, coming off a phenomenal spring training (0.75 ERA, 0.50 WHIP in 24 IP), should even be able to outpitch mound opponent CC Sabathia, who is 2-5 with a 6.00 ERA and 1.56 WHIP in his past seven starts versus the Boston Red Sox. That leaves just four pitchers who are widely available on the ESPN.com waiver wire -- Edinson Volquez, Vance Worley, Ricky Nolasco and Jhoulys Chacin.
Edinson Volquez has quite a favorable Opening Day matchup on the road at pitcher-friendly Citi Field facing a horrible New York Mets lineup. Volquez has actually never beaten the Mets in five career tries (0-4, 6.46 ERA, 1.78 WHIP), but his two career Citi Field starts have been solid -- 3.55 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 10 K's, 4 BBs in 12 2/3 innings. He's also pitched well early in the season over his career, posting a 3.57 ERA in the first two months of the season, compared to a 4.95 ERA after June 1. If you're thin on pitching and want to take an early stab at a win, Volquez gives you the best chance on Monday. Just don't expect a huge year out of him, especially with his walk rate remaining high (5.2 BB/9 last year) and the Citi Field fences moving closer in 2013. (If you've not yet read Tristan Cockcroft's analysis of the changes at Citi Field and Petco Field, it's worth taking the time to check it out).
Don't expect Vance Worley to outpitch Justin Verlander on Monday and earn a win, but he certainly has the ability to twirl a quality outing against the Detroit Tigers in his Minnesota Twins debut. Worley has been nearly unhittable in five career starts versus American League teams, sporting an 0.87 ERA, .177 opponents' batting average and 1.00 WHIP. He's allowed just one homer in these 31 innings, while striking out a respectable 22 batters (6.4 K's/9). Worley, owned in just 2 percent of ESPN.com fantasy leagues, could be a deep sleeper in 2013, but wins might be hard to come by.
Miami Marlins ace Ricky Nolasco put together a strong spring training performance with a 3.48 ERA, 21 K's and just five walks in 20 2/3 innings of work. However, his Marlins are not expected to win much this season, and are really expected to lose on Opening Day, as Las Vegas pegs them as plus-235 underdogs to beat the Washington Nationals and Stephen Strasburg. Nolasco has pitched pretty well versus the Nats in his career, going 11-5 with a 3.57 ERA, 1.08 WHIP and 8.0 K's/9, but this current Washington lineup could wind up being the most potent swingers in the National League this year. Nolasco is just not worth the risk on Monday.
Jhoulys Chacin has a tough Opening Day assignment pitching at the majors' most homer-friendly ballpark last season (according to ESPN.com's MLB Park Factors) in Miller Park. This will be his third career start against the Milwaukee Brewers, and he's given up eight runs on 11 hits in 13 1/3 innings in those first two starts. Chacin is also coming off a horrible finish to spring training, allowing 15 runs in his final 14 innings, and has also been dealing with back spasms. Chacin shouldn't be starting in any fantasy leagues on Monday.
 

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[h=1]You Heard Me![/h][h=3]The Talented Mr. Roto makes his annual bold predictions[/h]By Matthew Berry | ESPN.com

The part that people forget, of course, is that it's only the best part of sports.

It's why we watch, why we cheer, why we scream and why we cry.

The surprise, I mean. It's been a great NCAA tournament so far. Among the reasons? Wichita State, LaSalle and the Dunk City theatrics of Florida Gulf Coast. We love the unexpected. We love the big upset, the amazing performance. Look, I am not a Heat fan and I was among those piling on LeBron for his "Decision" and the bravado that accompanied it. But even I have to admit what he's doing is unreal. And it's why we love it.

The expected is ho-hum. But the out of the blue? The I-picked-up-Mike-Trout-and-he-led-me-to-a-title? That is what makes sports -- and fantasy -- so special. When the long shot works out.

This is the long shot column.

Everything else you have read, heard, watched and digested this preseason is steeped in scouting and stats. You may not agree with all of it, but I assure you, gentle reader, our projections, rankings, sleepers and busts are all backed by reasonable, well-thought-out, defensible analysis.


Except this.

This is pure, unadulterated gut-call time. This is a list of things that are unlikely to happen. But, as the owners of last year's No. 1 pitcher on our Player Rater -- 38-year-old knuckleballer R.A. Dickey -- will tell you, unlikely does not mean impossible.

I've written this column twice a year for many years now and I call it "You Heard Me!"

Like, we might be hanging out and I'd say something like, "I say RG III comes back, plays Week 1 and leads my Redskins to a Super Bowl."

And you'd be all, like, "Whaaaaat?"

And then I'd be all, "You heard me!"

It's a bold prediction. Now for a bold prediction to actually be bold, it has to be fairly unlikely to happen. Justin Verlander has 200 strikeouts? Not a bold prediction. Justin Verlander has an ERA over 5.00 and strikes out fewer than 140 while still making every start? Bold.

Some may see this piece as "fluff" or not helpful, but I think it's really helpful. You heard me. Last year in this column, I had some pretty good bold predictions: Edwin Encarnacion hits 34 home runs, Adam Dunn hits 40 (remember how bad he was in 2011?), Chris Perez (injured last preseason and rumored to be losing his job) finishes in the top five in saves and Dickey is a top-30 pitcher on the Player Rater, are among the bold calls I nailed. Because, at the time, even if it doesn't seem so in retrospect, they were bold.

Of course, I also predicted 50 home runs for Adrian Gonzalez, Aramis Ramirez as not being a top-15 third baseman and Francisco Liriano being a top-10 pitcher. Those are a few of the massive misses I had.

But like I said, this is high-risk, high-reward, unlikely-to-happen territory we are entering here. But here's how to use this column, other than using it to make yourself feel better about your own predictions ("at least I'm better than this guy") or your own writing (not gonna lie -- the intro here is similar to last year, too; only so many ways to introduce bold predictions).

The idea isn't that I nail highly improbable predictions, it's rather to identify players who I have a strong feeling on, one way or the other, from potential gems for the end game to guys to slightly upgrade/downgrade on your cheat sheets.

For example, last year I said in this piece that Alfonso Soriano would go 35/100, that Jason Kubel and Paul Goldschmidt would combine for 60 home runs and that Mark Trumbo would finish the year as a top-10 third baseman while hitting 30 home runs. Soriano went 32/108, the Arizona players combined for 50 and Trumbo never did qualify at third, finishing as a top-12 first baseman. So technically, I got all three predictions wrong, though I doubt anyone who drafted any of those guys very late was upset with what they got.
Now, the people who bought into me saying Erik Bedard would win the Cy Young, that Chris Heisey would hit 35 home runs or that Brian Matusz would be a top-30 pitcher on the Player Rater … they had every reason to be upset. Yeesh. They're not all winners, kids. But how much did those players cost you? Not much, beyond the opportunity to draft different lottery-ticket types.

Enough caveats for you? Good. I've done one prediction for each major league team along with some quick reasoning behind it. What you do with it after you read it is completely up to you.
Baltimore Orioles: Brian Roberts returns to being a top-10 second baseman this year. My thinking: Health is the issue, of course, but this is a guy with more than 700 plate appearances for three straight seasons from 2007 to 2009. He's having a good spring, and this is the healthiest he's been in years.

Boston Red Sox: 200 strikeouts and a sub-3.85 ERA for Felix Doubront. My thinking: Dude had a K/9 over nine last year, is having a good spring and is just 24. Another year in the bigs to work more innings and get his stuff under control.


New York Yankees: Kevin Youkilis goes 25/100, plays 150 games. My thinking: Hell hath no fury like a third baseman scorned. Pretty sure that's how it goes. Motivated by how it ended with the Red Sox, it makes no sense at all that, with the walking wounded that are the New York Yankees this year, one of the few healthy guys would be Kevin Youkilis. Which is why it'll happen. Skills are mostly still there.

Tampa Bay Rays: Matt Joyce hits 30 home runs. My thinking: If I keep putting him in this column, maybe it'll eventually come true. Worked for Edwin Encarnacion last year. Joyce makes either his third or fourth straight appearance here. I have yet to be right on him. But here's a bonus bold prediction: This is the year I am right on a breakout for Matt Joyce.

Toronto Blue Jays: Brandon Morrow finishes as a top-10 pitcher on the Player Rater. My thinking: Keeps improving every year, if he stays healthy the K's will be there, as will the wins.

Chicago White Sox: Hector Santiago joins the starting rotation, wins double-digit games and is a top-50 starting pitcher on the Player Rater. My thinking: Was actually a decent starter in the minors, they've already said they might use him against lefty-heavy lineups and it's not like the White Sox have a rotation that's impenetrable.

Cleveland Indians: Jason Kipnis is the No. 1 second baseman in fantasy this year. My thinking: The injuries on the Yankees are too much and hurt Robinson Cano's counting stats, Dustin Pedroia and Ian Kinsler have trouble staying healthy and Kipnis puts together a full year of what he did in the first half last season, rather than what he did in the second.

Detroit Tigers: Phil Coke saves 25 games. My thinking: They just sent Bruce Rondon down to the minors. Joaquin Benoit gave up too many home runs last year and is better suited to be a setup guy. Al Alburquerque is still inexperienced and walks too many. Octavio Dotel is Octavio Dotel. Meanwhile, Coke closed games in the playoffs when Jose Valverde faltered and had 51 strikeouts and just 18 walks in 54 innings last year.

Kansas City Royals: Ervin Santana wins 14 games, has a 3.50 ERA and strikes out 185. My thinking: We discussed this on the podcast last week and I rostered Santana on my AL Tout Wars team; I'm a believer. Underlying numbers last year were the same as the previous two, just got unlucky with home run/fly ball rate (OK, really unlucky) and strand rate. He's got something to prove.

Minnesota Twins: Aaron Hicks hits double-digit home runs and steals 30 bases. My thinking: Got the starting gig off a hot spring, they'll need to generate offense, he did steal 32 in Double-A last year and I don't even remotely believe any of the other bold predictions I came up with for this team. This one at least has a shot of coming true if Hicks keeps the starting job all year.

Houston Astros: Erik Bedard wins double-digit games, has an ERA under 4.00, a WHIP under 1.30 and more than 150 strikeouts. My thinking: He's my fantasy kryptonite, as Bill Simmons likes to say. Actually stayed healthy last year, but got unlucky with strand rate and his BABIP, to an extent. He still walked way too many, but hoping a return to the AL West actually helps. Not starting him at Texas or anything, but yeah, I can't quit Erik Bedard.

Los Angeles Angels: Mike Trout, Albert Pujols and Josh Hamilton are not among the top 20 players on the Player Rater at the end of the year. You heard me. My thinking: I'm hoping I'll be dead wrong. The Angels are my team. But remember, this is supposed to be bold. I'm worried about regression for Trout (average and power have to come down), the declining skills of Pujols and the injury history and free-falling K rate of Hamilton.

Oakland Athletics: Yoenis Cespedes goes .300/30/30. My thinking: Now adjusted to the Major Leagues, sky is the limit. Needs to get a little lucky with the batting average, but the A's are a better team around him than you think. Not great, but better than you think. Believe the hype.

Seattle Mariners: Hisashi Iwakuma is a top-20 starting pitcher on our Player Rater. My thinking: It's what I wrote in "Love/Hate." Had 16 starts last year with a 7.39 K/9 as a starter, with a 2.65 BB/9 and getting ground balls at a 50.9 percent clip. Only others to do that are David Price, Adam Wainwright and James Shields. He needs to get lucky with the wins to make this come true, but I do like him a lot.

Texas Rangers: 250 strikeouts and the AL Cy Young award for Yu Darvish. My thinking: Now adjusted to the MLB season and, more importantly, the MLB strike zone, he improves on last year's numbers, pitches more innings and is the guy we saw over his final seven starts (4-1, 2.13 ERA, 5.3 walk rate) for the whole year.

Atlanta Braves: 20 home runs for Evan Gattis. My thinking: If McCann can't get or stay healthy, Gattis can get hot with the bat and get the majority of the playing time. The pop is real, he just needs the at-bats. Plus, I've already talked about Kris Medlen for two straight years now, I should have at least one piece where I don't.

Miami Marlins: Justin Ruggiano goes 20/20. My thinking: He got lucky some last year and isn't a great player. But he'll hit in the middle of the lineup, they have no one else and just by sheer number of at-bats, he could fall into these numbers if the luck continues.

New York Mets: 200 strikeouts for Matt Harvey, who finishes among the top 20 starting pitchers on our Player Rater. My thinking: Has had a K/9 over nine at every level of the minors, including a K/9 over 10 in 59 innings last year. Gets the control under, er, control and sky's the limit.

Philadelphia Phillies: An ERA over 5, fewer than seven wins and a Player Rater finish outside the top 60 pitchers for Roy Halladay. My thinking: Sometimes you don't slow down when you reach the wall; sometimes you hit it hard and fast and when you do, it isn't pretty. Bonus one if you think Halladay is too easy: Domonic Brown goes 15/15 and flirts with 20/20 and a respectable average.

Washington Nationals: Ian Desmond is the No. 1 shortstop in fantasy this year. My thinking: I'm cheating. It's not that bold at all. He was actually the second-best shortstop last year, behind only Jose Reyes, it's just that no one realizes it (going in the seventh round). Troy Tulowitzki is still a health risk, Hanley Ramirez is already hurt and maybe Reyes takes some time to adjust to the AL. Meanwhile, Desmond keeps the average up while improving even more in power and homers. Still just 27.

Chicago Cubs: 220 strikeouts for Jeff Samardzija. My thinking: Skills are there, he just needs to throw about 45 more innings or so than last year.

Cincinnati Reds: Homer Bailey gets 17 wins, has 185 strikeouts and an ERA of 3.30. My thinking: Homer Bailey is another fantasy kryptonite for me, but he finally seemed to put it together for a full season last year. Now he takes the next step with a good bullpen behind him and underlying numbers heading in the right direction. FYI, came close to having a very positive Devin Mesoraco prediction in here.


Milwaukee Brewers: Rickie Weeks finishes as a top-four second baseman on our ESPN Player Rater. My thinking: Has looked good this spring and had more than 670 plate appearances last year. Rebounded in the second half last year after a tough start in the first half.

Pittsburgh Pirates: Jason Grilli, currently going 21st among relief pitchers, finishes the year as a top-three closer. You heard me. My thinking: Completely different pitcher the past two years, his strikeout rate (13.8 K/9 last year!) suggests a lot of value there along with just the saves. If he keeps the job all year, could see him being just behind Craig Kimbrel and Aroldis Chapman on the Player Rater.

St. Louis Cardinals: Allen Craig is the No. 1 fantasy first baseman. My thinking: Declining skills and possible injury on Pujols, maybe Joey Votto's power outage last year was more real than we think and maybe Prince Fielder gets unlucky with the batting average while keeping his power in the 28-to-30 homer range. Meanwhile, Craig stays healthy all year and has some gains in power and runs scored.

Arizona Diamondbacks: Paul Goldschmidt is the No. 1 fantasy first baseman. My thinking: I could easily be wrong about Craig above, and I really do love Goldschmidt, so I wanted to highlight him even more than I did in Love/Hate. If he continues running and the power and average grow a little … By the way, if forced to pick someone other than him, I would have gone with a positive Trevor Cahill prediction. I feel he's always underrated and is heading in the right direction.

Colorado Rockies: Eric Young Jr. steals 40 bases. My thinking: I can't do a Tyler Colvin prediction three years in a row. Quitting while I'm ahead. EY Jr. is cheap speed and, between injury and unproven players on the Rockies' roster, I see a lot of ways he could get playing time, in addition to just filling in on days off and pinch running.

Los Angeles Dodgers: Zack Greinke is not a top-30 pitcher this year. My thinking: Already had some slight injury issues, he's had stretches of inconsistency throughout his career. Has a reputation as being a bit fragile mentally, and living in Los Angeles with a ton of money can have an effect on people.

San Diego Padres: Andrew Cashner wins double-digit games, has more than 170 strikeouts and an ERA of under 3.50 with a WHIP of under 1.25. My thinking: The strikeouts are already there, with a K/9 of more than 10 last year. He had good control in the minors, but not yet in the majors. Another year in the bigs, a full-time rotation spot (I say he gets one) and a 97 mph fastball in Petco make for fantasy goodness.

San Francisco Giants: Tim Lincecum leads the Giants in saves. You heard me! My thinking: My most out-there one, but maybe Sergio Romo struggles with the gig over a full season and is better suited to setup. Meanwhile, Lincecum is terrible again in the rotation but becomes effective out of the bullpen.

There you have it. Season is just about to start. We know the unexpected awaits, these are some of the things I could see happening. What are yours? Let me read your best ones in the comments below or share them on my Facebook page or on Twitter.
 

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