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2013 Sleepers and Busts

By Fantasy staff | ESPN.com

When it comes to sleepers and busts, it's all about value.

The best sleepers are simply players who vastly outperform their draft-day value. Meanwhile, the busts are those players who play significantly below their draft-day value. In many cases, finding the right sleepers and avoiding the appropriate busts at the draft can go a long way toward winning a title.


The baseline for draft-day value in this case is our ESPN Fantasy rankings. We arrive at these rankings via a consensus of our writers and editors, but that doesn't mean we're all in agreement with the final rankings. Thus our analysts provided their own sleepers and busts, in relation to those rankings.

We've asked a number of our analysts to provide one sleeper and one bust for each of the following positions: catcher, first base, second base, shortstop, third base, outfield, starting pitcher and relief pitcher. Our analysts then go deeper into a few of their sleeper and bust picks with a little explanation (ordered by position and then by average draft position, highest to lowest). In most cases, we're discussing draft strategy/rankings for ESPN's standard leagues (10-team mixed league, 22-man active roster, including one starting catcher and one utility player, plus a three-man bench), but the analysis is mostly applicable in deeper leagues. Note that each expert sent his lists separate of the others (i.e., with no knowledge of who the other people selected).

Our panel of analysts: Matthew Berry (MB), Tristan H. Cockcroft (THC), Shawn Cwalinski (SC), Brian Gramling (BG), Dave Hunter (DH), Eric Karabell (EK), AJ Mass (AJM), James Quintong (JQ), Mike Sheets (MS) and Todd Zola (TZ).


[h=3]Sleepers[/h]
C 1B 2B 3B SS OF SP RP
MB Salvador Perez Paul Konerko Jedd Gyorko Pedro Alvarez Jean Segura Cameron Maybin Jeff Samardz. Jason
Grilli
THC Jonathan Lucroy Brandon Belt Jedd Gyorko Kyle Seager Jed Lowrie Leonys Martin Chris Tillman Glen Perkins
SC Jonathan Lucroy Kendrys Morales Omar Infante Trevor Plouffe Josh Rutledge Michael Saunders Alex
Cobb
Casey Janssen
BG Ryan Doumit Adam LaRoche Daniel Murphy Manny Machado Andrelton Simmons Mark Trumbo Jeff Samardz. Huston Street
DH Derek Norris Lance Berkman Jedd Gyorko Todd Frazier Josh Rutledge Andy Dirks Rick Porcello David Phelps
EK Salvador Perez Brandon Belt Chase Utley Manny Machado Jean Segura Adam Eaton Brett Anderson Sergio Romo
AJM Wilin Rosario Freddie Freeman Jose Altuve Kyle Seager Alcides Escobar Josh Reddick Wade Miley Ryan Cook
JQ John Jaso Lance Berkman Daniel Murphy Lonnie Chisenhall Josh Rutledge Adam Eaton Josh Beckett Tyler Clippard
MS Salvador Perez Lance Berkman Jedd Gyorko Manny Machado Josh Rutledge Adam Eaton Alex
Cobb
Jason
Grilli
TZ Alex Avila Chris Parmelee Dustin Ackley Kyle Seager Josh Rutledge Justin Maxwell Alex
Cobb
Tom Wilhelm.

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Salvador Perez, C, Royals: Stop elbowing me! Hey, move over; I was in this spot first! Ow, you're stepping on my toes! Yes, kids, it's getting a little crowded here on the Sal Perez bandwagon, but for good reason. High average, solid power, great contact rate, the Royals will be solid this year … Perez has a very legit shot to be a Joe Mauer-like producer this season, but 128 picks later. -- Matthew Berry

Jonathan Lucroy, C, Brewers: There's sure to be some hesitation in trusting Lucroy's modest 2012 gains because of the time he missed, but in his defense, his two-month absence was a total fluke. Hasn't everyone suffered the misfortune, at one time or another, of having his wife drop a suitcase on his hand? When healthy, Lucroy's stats revealed a contact rate bump of more than 8 percent, along with a significantly higher rate of hard contact (near-50 percent bump in well-hit average) and greater plate coverage. If you told me that, in a standard 10-team mixed league, I could forego every one of our top-10 catchers if promised Lucroy would be there in the 20th round, I'd say "Sign me up." And our ESPN live draft results suggest that's exactly what's happening with him. -- Tristan H. Cockcroft

John Jaso, C, A's: Jaso is definitely an asset in leagues that count on-base percentage, and he also has the skills to be a solid batting average contributor. It looks like he could get decent playing time (something that has been relatively lacking over the years), even though the A's have top prospect Derek Norris waiting in the wings. -- James Quintong

Freddie Freeman, 1B, Braves: Freeman was hampered by a burning sensation in his eyes last season and reportedly could barely see at times. Yet he still managed to hit a career-high 23 home runs as he also fought through a finger injury that made holding the bat difficult and likely played a part in his hitting .212 in September. An offseason workout regimen has him in the best shape of his career, so don't take your eyes off him. -- AJ Mass


Paul Konerko, 1B, White Sox: Really, Berry? A 37-year-old first baseman is your sleeper? Well, considering he's going in the 13th round, the answer is yes, really. Look, I get that he's old, and I get that his skills are declining. But there's a tendency to discount guys like him as uninteresting or boring, and there's still a lot of value here. As I mentioned in my 100 Facts column, of the first base-eligible players, only one has at least 25 home runs, 75 RBIs and a .298 average in each of the past three seasons. That would be Mr. Paul Konerko. You know he'll hit for a high average (which is rarer and rarer these days) and power. And while his upside is limited and he won't have a great runs total, he's money in the bank for basically a .300 average and 25-30 home runs. And when you see someone like Mark Teixeira going in the seventh round (six rounds ahead of Konerko), well, give me one more year of Konerko instead. -- Matthew Berry

Kendrys Morales, 1B, Mariners: It seems counter-intuitive to expect Morales to improve in Seattle, but I do expect him to be better this season. He's healthy right now, he's going to play every day, and Safeco Field's fences have been moved in. While we won't know the actual impact of the new fences until after he has played there a few seasons, the stadium that is the closest match to Safeco's new dimensions is U.S. Cellular Field, the home of the White Sox. I don't expect Morales to repeat what he did in 2009, but I do think he can hit 30 homers with a .280-plus batting average. Those are great numbers for a guy being taken in the 20th round. -- Shawn Cwalinski

Lance Berkman, 1B, Rangers: Berkman played in only 32 games last year due to knee issues and turned 37 in February, so I understand if you're skeptical. That skepticism, however, is why the Big Puma will be such a draft-day bargain. Remember, he's just one year removed from hitting .301 with 31 homers and 94 RBIs with the St. Louis Cardinals, and this season he'll play half his games in a hitters' park in Texas, where he'll bat third much of the time in one of baseball's best lineups. Health is still a concern, but serving as the Rangers' full-time DH should help him there. -- Mike Sheets

Brandon Belt, 1B, Giants: While Belt still will sit the occasional game so Buster Posey can relax over at first base, this is the year to get Belt in dynasty formats; his power potential is close to being realized. Belt already hits lefties well enough to deserve regular playing time, hitting five of his seven home runs in 2012 off them, and he had no issues with pitcher-friendly AT&T Park, hitting .315 there. This is a mature hitter with plate discipline who should see more playing time. Next year at this time, Belt will be ranked near fellow young first basemen such as Freddie Freeman and Anthony Rizzo. -- Eric Karabell

Daniel Murphy, 2B, Mets: He's a .292 career hitter just entering his prime at age 27, and he can be had in a fantasy draft on the cheap, especially following a recent injury setback (intercostal strain) that could scare off cautious owners. Murphy knows how to hit at Citi Field -- he's a career .308 hitter, with a .351 OBP, at his home field -- and he also batted .283 versus lefties last year, showing he can (and should) play every day. The Mets' lineup isn't exactly great, but there is upside with players such as Ike Davis and Lucas Duda, and Murphy should have no trouble scoring 80-plus runs if he rightfully bats second in the lineup. -- Brian Gramling


Kyle Seager, 3B, Mariners: Seager showed surprising power last season, hitting 20 homers, with five at home and 15 on the road. It's reasonable to assume a drop in road homers, but this should be offset by a rise in homers at Safeco Field since Seager should benefit from the fences being moved in and lowered. Seager makes good contact and is capable of a higher batting average than his 2012 mark (.259). He stroked an above-average number of line drives yet had a batting average on balls in play that was lower than league average. Lastly, like many young lefty hitters, Seager struggles against southpaws, sporting a pedestrian .658 OPS. But his contact against lefties is still solid, so he has a good chance of increasing his production in that regard. -- Todd Zola

Trevor Plouffe, 3B, Twins: If you like Pedro Alvarez but don't want to pay Pedro Alvarez prices, then Plouffe is the third baseman for you. In fact, he had 24 homers in 422 at-bats last season compared to Alvarez's 30 homers in 586 at-bats. Alvarez drew more walks, but Plouffe had a 12 percent better contact rate. All in all, Plouffe is being drafted 76 spots lower than Alvarez in ESPN live drafts, and if that wasn't bad enough, he's also being taken after Jeff Keppinger and Alex "I might not play at all this season … or ever again" Rodriguez. -- Shawn Cwalinski

Jed Lowrie, SS, A's: If the very first thing that comes to mind with Lowrie isn't either "injuries," "DL" or "Ouch, I strained my hamstring just thinking about him," then obviously you've never had the pleasure of owning him, or you're a fantasy rookie. But here's the truth: Lowrie's horrendous reputation in the health department actually does us a favor by scaring off enough folks that he'll sneak through at a deep discount at what is truly one of the weaker positions in fantasy. Between all the bumps, bruises and Acme safes that have fallen on him (stop chasing that Road Runner, Jed!), Lowrie has sported a walk rate better than 10 percent and fly ball rate greater than 50 percent in his career. He's a little Josh Reddick-/Brandon Moss-ish -- and I'd argue with the better discipline of the three -- and those two clubbed a combined 53 homers in 2012. -- Tristan H. Cockcroft


Josh Rutledge, SS/2B, Rockies: Sometimes you need to take a leap of faith, and if Rutledge wins and keeps the Rockies' second-base job, he has a chance for a 20-homer, 20-steal season hitting out of the two-hole. With Chris Nelson as the favorite to win the third-base gig, Rutledge just needs to beat out DJ LeMahieu, Jonathan Herrera and Reid Brignac. I like his chances. -- Todd Zola

Adam Eaton, OF, Diamondbacks: As soon as the Justin Upton trade to Atlanta was consummated, which opened up a starting role for Eaton, fantasy owners immediately became interested in Eaton's stolen base upside. A year ago, he swiped 38 bases at Triple-A Reno and hit .381 over 488 at-bats, and he flashed enough power to help there, too. Eaton likely won't hit quite that well in the big leagues, but he does have a patient approach and the potential for double-digit homers (he had 58 extra-base hits at Reno). Eaton's skill set will translate to the majors, and he's a far better value than fellow speedsters Angel Pagan, Brett Gardner and Coco Crisp. -- Eric Karabell

Andy Dirks, OF, Tigers: The Tigers will have arguably the best hitting lineup in the game this season, and I like Dirks to benefit from the hitters around him as he nets 400-plus at-bats. Dirks likely will start the season on the "good side" of a platoon (batting lefty versus most righties), but he did show in 2012 that he could hit lefties reasonably well, so he has an excellent chance of landing the left-field job full-time in Detroit. Consider him a late-round dark horse for a 20-homer season. -- Dave Hunter

Jeff Samardzija, SP, Cubs: The Cubs' Opening Day starter is primed for a monster season after the Cubs wisely limited him to less than 175 innings in his first year as a starter. He still struck out 180 batters in the limited duty and got stronger in the second half of the season, posting a 2.58 ERA, 1.02 WHIP and 9.8 K's/9 in his final 13 starts (after July 1). And check out his Wrigley Field numbers over the past two seasons: 9-5 record, 3.07 ERA, 1.19 WHIP and 10.2 K's/9. Samardzija has a classic pitcher's frame at 6-foot-5, 225 pounds and has never been injured in his career. I feel this 28-year-old is going to post ace-quality numbers for the next several seasons. -- Brian Gramling

Rick Porcello, SP, Tigers: There are a few signs that lead me to believe Porcello is ready to finally live up to his prospect hype of a few seasons ago, one of which is his improved velocity. Porcello also has increased his K/9 rate and LOB% in recent seasons, which means he's learning how to get out of jams more consistently, which in turn helps lower his ERA. Not that Porcello will ever be a strikeout king, but investing in him as a late-round flyer is a chance I'd take. -- Dave Hunter

Alex Cobb, SP, Rays: With James Shields now in Kansas City, Cobb gets his shot at securing a rotation spot this spring. The young right-hander showed good control (2.6 BB/9) in his time with the Rays last year, and his 9.6 K/9 rate over 228 innings between Double- and Triple-A suggests there's more strikeout potential in him (7.0 K/9 for the Rays in 2012). While he posted a respectable 4.03 ERA and 1.25 WHIP in 2012, he really started to shine over his final seven starts -- all of which came against offenses that ranked in the top half of baseball in runs scored -- going 5-2 with a 2.49 ERA and a 1.02 WHIP. The 25-year-old is going undrafted in most standard mixed leagues, so the profit potential here is substantial. -- Mike Sheets

[h=3]Busts[/h]
C 1B 2B 3B SS OF SP RP
MB Buster Posey Mark Teixeira Chase Utley Chase Headley Derek Jeter Josh Hamilton James Shields John Axford
THC Mike Napoli Paul Konerko Danny Espinosa Aramis Ramirez Derek Jeter Bryce Harper CC Sabathia Joel Hanrahan
SC Victor Martinez Mark Teixeira Jason Kipnis Chase Headley Elvis Andrus Josh Hamilton Zack Greinke Joel Hanrahan
BG Mike Napoli Mark Teixeira Aaron Hill Pablo Sandoval Elvis Andrus Torii Hunter Mat Latos John Axford
DH Buster Posey Anthony Rizzo Aaron Hill Will Middlebrks Alcides Escobar Bryce Harper Gio Gonzalez Fernando Rodney
EK Wilin Rosario Mark Trumbo Danny Espinosa Todd
Frazier
Derek Jeter Carl Crawford Wade Miley Joel Hanrahan
AJM Victor Martinez Allen Craig Ben Zobrist Aramis Ramirez Jimmy Rollins Jose Bautista Jered Weaver Fernando Rodney
JQ Mike Napoli Edwin Encarn. Jason Kipnis Chase Headley Elvis Andrus Carlos Gomez CC Sabathia Joel Hanrahan
MS Mike Napoli Albert Pujols Dan Uggla Chase Headley Derek Jeter Melky Cabrera Josh Johnson Joel Hanrahan
TZ Wilin Rosario Joey
Votto
Robinson Cano Will Middlebrks Ian Desmond Andrew McCutch. Stephen Strasburg Jim Johnson

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Buster Posey, C, Giants: It's not that he isn't great. He is. He's a stud. He's all that and a bag of Girl Scout cookies. But I have to pick someone to be my busts, and frankly, I like all the catchers in the top five. So I picked Posey because of where you have to take him. In a two-catcher league or even a deep NL-only league, I don't mind paying a premium for him. But in an ESPN standard 10-team league, where you start just one catcher, him being a catcher isn't as big a benefit as it is in other leagues. I'd rather wait on catcher than use a second-round pick on someone who plays a risky position (in terms of injuries) and will no doubt have some batting-average regression. -- Matthew Berry

Mike Napoli, C, Red Sox: I thought we at ESPN Fantasy, with our No. 156 group rank of him, were excessively optimistic about Napoli, and then I saw his ADP in ESPN live drafts: 141.6?! Has no one noticed the richness of the catcher talent pool for 2013, particularly in 10-team mixed leagues? Napoli would need to approach 30 homers and 90 RBIs to be a top-five backstop this season, accounting for his batting average risk fueled by a rapidly increasing strikeout rate, and that's a huge leap to take considering the condition of his hips. He has avascular necrosis -- that's what Bo Jackson had back in the day -- in both joints, and I think the Red Sox sent us the clearest caution flag of all this winter when they shaved two years off his free-agent contract after learning of it. -- Tristan H. Cockcroft

Wilin Rosario, C, Rockies: Rosario has excellent power, no doubt. However, his contact rate is below average and he rarely takes a walk, which could lead to slumps, perhaps prolonged. Then consider the fact that Rosario allowed a whopping 21 passed balls in just 105 games behind the dish, and there is a strong possibility he loses playing time. If Rosario is not hitting home runs, he's not helping his team, because his defense is not going to keep him in the lineup. -- Todd Zola


Mark Trumbo, OF/1B, Angels: While it's easy to see the power Trumbo brings, pitchers had little trouble exploiting the holes in his swing over the final two months of 2012, when he hit .208 after Aug. 1 with 72 strikeouts. Trumbo's first two months, meanwhile, were fueled by an uncharacteristically high BABIP and good luck. It wouldn't be stunning to see him reach 30 home runs again, but he's a major batting average risk who could certainly lose playing time to the likes of Vernon Wells if he struggles again. -- Eric Karabell

Jason Kipnis: So which Kipnis will show up this year? Will it be the one who had 11 homers and 20 steals before the All-Star break in 2012, or the one who had a .650 OPS and just three homers after it? The answer could be somewhere in between, and while I like his overall potential as a power-speed combo guy, he is going a little too high for my taste, especially after that second-half drop-off. -- James Quintong

Aaron Hill, 2B, Diamondbacks: It's not that I don't like Hill -- I think he's a solid 25-homer candidate in 2013 -- but the inconsistency from season to season regarding his contact rate is bothersome. If you get shut out of a top-five second baseman this season and don't really need Hill's power, you're better off waiting for guys like Altuve, Utley or Espinosa in the later rounds than spending a seventh- or eighth-round pick on Hill. -- Dave Hunter

Will Middlebrooks, 3B, Red Sox: The numbers Middlebrooks put up last year were impressive, considering his limited number of at-bats, but don't expect his batting average to stay anywhere near the .288 he put up in 2012. There's a good chance for a sophomore regression considering the limited number of major league at-bats Middlebrooks has had in his young career. -- Dave Hunter

Elvis Andrus, SS, Rangers: With the departure of run-producing teammates Josh Hamilton and Mike Napoli, Andrus will be hard-pressed to score another 85 runs from the No. 2 hole in the Rangers' batting order. His production really tailed off last season, with a paltry 34 runs and five steals (on just nine attempts) in 75 games after the All-Star break. Andrus batted just .233 during his team's late-season slide after Sept. 1. And he's already a major hindrance in the power department, posting a total of eight homers over his past three seasons, spanning more than 450 games and 1,800 at-bats. -- Brian Gramling

Jose Bautista, OF, Blue Jays: My concern with Bautista is that he could suffer from a downtick in home run production after suffering a serious wrist injury last season. It takes just one bad swing to end a fantasy season, and with Bautista attempting to send every pitch into orbit, I can't help feeling a little skittish here. -- AJ Mass

Josh Hamilton, OF, Angels: As an Angels fan, I hope I'm dead wrong here. But health is always a concern with Hamilton, moving from Rangers Ballpark to Angel Stadium doesn't do him any favors, and there's a concern that there will be a mental letdown now that he has signed the big contract. We always say not to pay for a career year. Just because the Angels did doesn't mean you have to. If he's there in the third round, awesome. But as a top-16 pick? There are safer bets out there. -- Matthew Berry

More on Hamilton: A little risk in the first two rounds is fine, but Hamilton has too many negatives for me. He still has never had more than 500 at-bats in consecutive seasons, and last season he had more than 500. He is leaving one of the best hitters' parks in baseball for a slight pitchers' park. His contact rate dropped 10 percent last season. I see little difference between Hamilton and Matt Holliday, who is being taken 27 picks later in drafts. -- Shawn Cwalinski

Bryce Harper, OF, Nationals: Controversy! To stave off at least a few angry emails from Harper fans, I'll stress that I'm not at all a "Harper hater." After all, he is No. 62 overall in my personal ranks, 21 spots better than he finished 2012. But facts are facts: That rank is nowhere near our consensus rank (No. 37) or his current ADP (32.7). Those numbers suggest you have to pick him in the third round in order to guarantee he's yours for 2013. That's paying ceiling value, and in my opinion, that's foolish for a 20-year-old with all of 144 games of big league experience. A comparison point: Jason Heyward had .269-27-82 stats with 21 steals and 93 runs in 2012, numbers Harper could match but probably won't exceed, and Heyward still finished just 37th on our Player Rater. Take that chance if you wish, but my advice is, get back to me in a year, when Harper is much more likely to be that burgeoning top-25 fantasy player. -- Tristan H. Cockcroft

Carl Crawford, OF, Dodgers: Crawford used to be a fantastic fantasy option, but injuries have wrecked his career, and there's little indication that big numbers or even a full season of games are pending in 2013. Crawford played in only 31 games last season, and like the season before, he didn't show the ability to get on base. Over the past two seasons covering 161 games, Crawford has drawn 26 walks and fanned 126 times. While his injured elbow, which still doesn't appear to be healed, surely affected his hitting, he wasn't stealing bases at a high rate, either. A move to the National League and Dodger Stadium isn't likely to make things better. Simply put, Crawford is not a fantasy starter anymore. -- Eric Karabell


Stephen Strasburg, SP, Nationals: This is not a prediction that Strasburg is going to have a bad season, only that he will fall short of the extremely lofty expectations some have for him (I've seen him ranked as a No. 1 starting pitcher). Even with an increase in 2013, Strasburg is still going to toss 20-30 fewer innings than Justin Verlander and Clayton Kershaw. This will reduce his strikeouts and the impact of his ratios. While it's true that Strasburg's strikeout rate is higher than the others, helping to counter the innings deficit, there is talk of Strasburg using his sinker more in an effort to be more efficient with his pitches. This should help get him deeper into games but likely will, in turn, lower his strikeouts. He's going to be good, no argument. It's just that he doesn't belong with the elite until he matches them in innings. -- Todd Zola

Jered Weaver, SP, Angels: Weaver's K/9 rate fall from 9.35 in 2010 to 7.56 in 2011 and then 6.77 in 2012. Combine that with a corresponding increase in line drives being hit off the Angels pitcher and we might be looking at a case in which good fortune may suddenly be in short supply for the starter. I'm not suggesting he'll finish the year with a losing record, but he could well end up closer to 14 wins than 20. -- AJ Mass

Zack Greinke, SP, Dodgers: I want to like Greinke, and all the "numbers" suggest that I should; his K/9, HR/9 and GB/FB rates all indicate he should be elite. But that's the problem: The sum of the parts is usually greater than the whole with Greinke. I call it "Nolasco-itis." For whatever reason, Greinke just doesn't produce the fantasy numbers his peripheral numbers suggest he should. It's not like I expect him to be bad, I just don't think he'll be a top-10 starter. -- Shawn Cwalinski

CC Sabathia, SP, Yankees: With all the mileage Sabathia has put on his arm over the years, I wonder when he's going to have that real breakdown or major injury that knocks him out for a long stretch of time. The multiple DL stints he had last year don't make me feel confident about him for this season. And with the Yankees' lineup being a bit less potent this year than in recent years, he might not be as much of a lock for 15-18 wins as he used to be. -- James Quintong

Josh Johnson, SP, Blue Jays: Johnson started 30 games last year for the first time since 2009, but that's pretty much where the positives end. While his overall stat line looked decent, his velocity continued to decline (his average fastball was 94.9 mph in 2010 and 92.8 mph last year), his strikeout rate continued to plummet (9.1 K/9 in 2010, 7.8 K/9 last year), his walk rate continued to escalate (2.4 BB/9 in 2010, 3.1 BB/9 last year), and he struggled when pitching away from pitcher-friendly Marlins Park (4.94 ERA, 1.44 WHIP). The right-hander finished just 67th among starting pitchers on the ESPN Player Rater and flashed almost none of the elite upside that once made him an intriguing fantasy option. Now Johnson moves to a hitter-friendly environment in Toronto, and to the AL East? I think I'll pass. -- Mike Sheets

Joel Hanrahan, RP, Red Sox: Hanrahan's 76 saves over the past two seasons are the fifth-most in baseball, but that doesn't mean the former Pirate is a safe fantasy option for this season. Despite 36 saves and a 2.72 ERA in 2012, Hanrahan's walk rate ballooned to 5.3 (including 6.3 BB/9 after the All-Star break), and his 45.1 fly ball percentage was a career high. That's a dangerous combination for a guy being drafted as a top-10 closer. And it could really be detrimental in Fenway Park, which ranked in the top 10 in home runs last year, according to ESPN Park Factors (PNC Park, by comparison, ranked 27th). While Andrew Bailey might not be the picture of health, he does give the Red Sox a viable alternative in the ninth inning should Hanrahan's control issues undo him this season. -- Mike Sheets

John Axford, RP, Brewers: Axford was a mess last season, posting a league-worst nine blown saves and walking 39 batters in 69 1/3 innings. His ERA more than doubled from 2011, and his WHIP ballooned from 1.14 to 1.44. Axford also served up seven homers in 39 innings at Miller Park, leading to a 5.31 ERA there. Fantasy owners tend to overrate strikeouts from closers, but his projected 90 strikeouts is only 20 more than average of the top 33 relievers in the ESPN.com rankings. It's not worth chasing those 20 K's to suffer the ERA and WHIP damage that Axford will cause a fantasy staff. -- Brian Gramling
 

hacheman@therx.com
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Fantasy Baseball Top 200

By Matthew Berry | ESPN.com

So these are my rankings. Emphasis on the word "my." Specifically, these are my rankings incorporating my biases, theories and draft strategy this year for ESPN standard leagues. In other words, these rankings are tailored towards ESPN's default game, which means a 10-team mixed league with 5x5 rotisserie scoring, only one catcher, just three bench spots and one DL spot.

Under those parameters, I find it tough to take Buster Posey in the top 16, the way he is currently being drafted. His talent is unquestioned, it's just a matter of scarcity, or lack thereof. There are a lot of good catchers this year and you only need to start one. Also, while there may be lots of pitching available on the waiver wire for streaming, there is a start limit, so I'll take the risk on WHIP in exchange for Yu Darvish's huge advantage in strikeouts. Therefore, I'm higher on him than most.

If you've read me anytime in the past 14 years, you know I always say don't pay for saves. This year is no different. Now, don't pay for saves doesn't mean ignore saves, it just means I believe you can find quality at the position later in the draft and on the waiver wire, so I'm probably lower on closers in my overall ranks than most. They reflect how I (in general) draft. And why you'll never see Craig Kimbrel on my team, even though I agree he's the top closer; his ADP has him going late in the fourth round while I wouldn't touch him before the seventh.

As I intimated in my 100 Facts column, batting average isn't what it used to be. So I forgave (or didn't penalize as harshly) guys who hit in the .250s; while not helpful, it's not as hurtful as it was in the past. That said, I also gave favor to those who will hit for a high average. The guys who will get 500 or more at-bats and are capable of a .300 average are much more scarce these days, so I'm probably higher on some of those types than others (hello, Paul Konerko).


The other side of that is that despite pitching being deep, I didn't rank starting pitching with the idea that you can "wait on starters." You can, just understand you'll finish middle of the pack in pitching, if you're lucky. Because pitching is so deep, everyone will have a good staff. So you need a stud, if not two, to be at the top. The ranks reflect that.

I'm a position scarcity guy, so that played a factor in these ranks as well. For example, I'm higher on Jose Altuve than most, I am guessing, because I think he's the last guy I'd be comfortable with as my starting second baseman in a league this size. So, if I were in a draft and had waited, I'd probably reach for him (as evidenced in my ranks) because I don't like the options after him.
When I have players at the same position right next to each other, it's my way of saying I think they are all of equal value/risk and it's just personal preference there. Also, be sure to note the date up top. When the ranks are updated, we'll change the date. News happens fast and value changes all the time during spring training, so knowing when the most recent update to these are will help.

Finally and most important, use these rankings as a guideline. A loose guideline. Don't follow my ranks (or anyone else's) religiously. Every draft is different, team construction and needs are different; as my friends at "The League" would say, don't be a rankings slave.

And here we go.

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[h=3]Matthew Berry's 2013 Fantasy Baseball Top 200[/h]
<CENTER>Overall
Rank </CENTER>
Player <CENTER>Team </CENTER><CENTER>Eligible
Position(s) </CENTER>
1 Ryan Braun Mil OF
2 Miguel Cabrera Det 3B
3 Mike Trout LAA OF
4 Robinson Cano NYY 2B
5 Matt Kemp LAD OF
6 Carlos Gonzalez Col OF
7 Andrew McCutchen Pit OF
8 Albert Pujols LAA 1B
9 Joey Votto Cin 1B
10 Prince Fielder Det 1B
11 Justin Upton Atl OF
12 Giancarlo Stanton Mia OF
13 Justin Verlander Det SP
14 Clayton Kershaw LAD SP
15 Adrian Beltre Tex 3B
16 Troy Tulowitzki Col SS
17 Jose Bautista Tor OF
18 Stephen Strasburg Wsh SP
19 David Wright NYM 3B
20 David Price TB SP
21 Buster Posey SF C/1B
22 Evan Longoria TB 3B
23 Hanley Ramirez LAD 3B/SS
24 Dustin Pedroia Bos 2B
25 Ian Kinsler Tex 2B
26 Edwin Encarnacion Tor 1B
27 Josh Hamilton LAA OF
28 Bryce Harper Wsh OF
29 Jose Reyes Tor SS
30 Jason Heyward Atl OF
31 Adrian Gonzalez LAD 1B
32 Cliff Lee Phi SP
33 Yu Darvish Tex SP
34 Matt Cain SF SP
35 Starlin Castro ChC SS
36 Jay Bruce Cin OF
37 Jacoby Ellsbury Bos OF
38 Matt Holliday StL OF
39 Adam Jones Bal OF
40 Billy Butler KC 1B
41 Allen Craig StL 1B/OF
42 B.J. Upton Atl OF
43 Felix Hernandez Sea SP
44 Cole Hamels Phi SP
45 Brandon Phillips Cin 2B
46 Paul Goldschmidt Ari 1B
47 Michael Bourn Cle OF
48 R.A. Dickey Tor SP
49 Jered Weaver LAA SP
50 Zack Greinke LAD SP
51 Ryan Zimmerman Wsh 3B
52 Madison Bumgarner SF SP
53 Jason Kipnis Cle 2B
54 Ben Zobrist TB OF/2B/SS
55 Yoenis Cespedes Oak OF
56 Brett Lawrie Tor 3B
57 Gio Gonzalez Wsh SP
58 Adam Wainwright StL SP
59 Chris Sale CWS SP
60 Kris Medlen Atl RP/SP
61 Craig Kimbrel Atl RP
62 Austin Jackson Det OF
63 Aaron Hill Ari 2B
64 Pablo Sandoval SF 3B
65 Aramis Ramirez Mil 3B
66 Yadier Molina StL C
67 Matt Wieters Bal C
68 Chase Headley SD 3B
69 CC Sabathia NYY SP
70 Ian Desmond Wsh SS
71 Johnny Cueto Cin SP
72 Jordan Zimmermann Wsh SP
73 Alex Rios CWS OF
74 Jose Altuve Hou 2B
75 Jimmy Rollins Phi SS
76 Desmond Jennings TB OF
77 Aroldis Chapman Cin RP/SP
78 Shin-Soo Choo Cin OF
79 Matt Moore TB SP
80 Mat Latos Cin SP
81 Yovani Gallardo Mil SP
82 Victor Martinez Det C
83 Anthony Rizzo ChC 1B
84 Paul Konerko CWS 1B
85 Ike Davis NYM 1B
86 Freddie Freeman Atl 1B
87 Joe Mauer Min C/1B
88 Elvis Andrus Tex SS
89 Carlos Santana Cle C/1B
90 Roy Halladay Phi SP
91 Alex Gordon KC OF
92 Melky Cabrera Tor OF
93 Brandon Morrow Tor SP
94 Carlos Gomez Mil OF
95 Curtis Granderson NYY OF
96 Jonathan Papelbon Phi RP
97 Rafael Soriano Wsh RP
98 Eric Hosmer KC 1B
99 David Ortiz Bos DH
100 Shane Victorino Bos OF
101 Carlos Beltran StL OF
102 Brett Gardner NYY OF
103 Martin Prado Ari OF/3B
104 Josh Willingham Min OF
105 Mark Trumbo LAA OF/1B
106 Asdrubal Cabrera Cle SS
107 Mariano Rivera NYY RP
108 Jason Motte StL RP
109 Max Scherzer Det SP
110 Jake Peavy CWS SP
111 James Shields KC SP
112 Dan Haren Wsh SP
113 Angel Pagan SF OF
114 Danny Espinosa Wsh 2B/SS
115 Doug Fister Det SP
116 Ian Kennedy Ari SP
117 Anibal Sanchez Det SP
118 Chris Davis Bal OF/1B
119 Jonathon Niese NYM SP
120 Hunter Pence SF OF
121 Alejandro De Aza CWS OF
122 Nelson Cruz Tex OF
123 Mike Napoli Bos C/1B
124 Hiroki Kuroda NYY SP
125 Tim Lincecum SF SP
126 Neil Walker Pit 2B
127 Torii Hunter Det OF
128 Howard Kendrick LAA 2B
129 Jeff Samardzija ChC SP
130 Carl Crawford LAD OF
131 Adam LaRoche Wsh 1B
132 Mike Moustakas KC 3B
133 Fernando Rodney TB RP
134 J.J. Putz Ari RP
135 Joel Hanrahan Bos RP
136 Joe Nathan Tex RP
137 David Freese StL 3B
138 Alcides Escobar KC SS
139 Ryan Howard Phi 1B
140 C.J. Wilson LAA SP
141 Pedro Alvarez Pit 3B
142 Andre Ethier LAD OF
143 Huston Street SD RP
144 Jason Kubel Ari OF
145 Michael Morse Sea OF
146 Matt Harvey NYM SP
147 Kyle Seager Sea 3B
148 Chase Utley Phi 2B
149 Josh Johnson Tor SP
150 Erick Aybar LAA SS
151 Jon Lester Bos SP
152 Rickie Weeks Mil 2B
153 Cameron Maybin SD OF
154 Alfonso Soriano ChC OF
155 Lance Lynn StL SP
156 Kendrys Morales Sea 1B
157 John Axford Mil RP
158 Emilio Bonifacio Tor OF
159 Dan Uggla Atl 2B
160 Josh Reddick Oak OF
161 Ichiro Suzuki NYY OF
162 Colby Rasmus Tor OF
163 Salvador Perez KC C
164 Norichika Aoki Mil OF
165 Miguel Montero Ari C
166 Will Middlebrooks Bos 3B
167 Wilin Rosario Col C
168 Dexter Fowler Col OF
169 Homer Bailey Cin SP
170 Jim Johnson Bal RP
171 Addison Reed CWS RP
172 Rafael Betancourt Col RP
173 Sergio Romo SF RP
174 Greg Holland KC RP
175 Todd Frazier Cin 3B/1B
176 Ben Revere Phi OF
177 Wade Miley Ari SP
178 Derek Jeter NYY SS
179 Jeremy Hellickson TB SP
180 Matt Harrison Tex SP
181 J.J. Hardy Bal SS
182 Ryan Vogelsong SF SP
183 Lance Berkman Tex 1B
184 Corey Hart Mil 1B/OF
185 Dayan Viciedo CWS OF
186 Jason Grilli Pit RP
187 Jayson Werth Wsh OF
188 Kevin Youkilis NYY 3B/1B
189 Jonathan Lucroy Mil C
190 Jesus Montero Sea C
191 Marco Estrada Mil SP
192 Brett Anderson Oak SP
193 Wandy Rodriguez Pit SP
194 Jarrod Parker Oak SP
195 Justin Morneau Min 1B
196 Mark Reynolds Cle 1B
197 Josh Rutledge Col SS
198 Lorenzo Cain KC OF
199 Jonathan Broxton Cin RP
200 Adam Dunn CWS 1B

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Pujols riskier than you might realize

By Mike Sheets | Special to ESPN.com

Votto, Matthew Berry, Eric Karabell, Tristan Cockcroft, First Base2013 Fantasy: Top-Tier First BasemenThe idea that Albert Pujols, nine-time All-Star and three-time MVP, carries any risk at all is an entirely new concept. He has been widely regarded as a first-round fantasy pick for the past decade, and more often than not he has been considered top three, if not No. 1. All told, popular opinion on the slugger hasn't changed much in 2013. He ranks as the No. 5 player in ESPN live draft results, and he ranks seventh overall in ESPN's staff rankings. In other words, he's being drafted like he's still elite. Of course, the trouble with treating Pujols like he's still elite is that, well, he's not.

When discussing Pujols and his present-day value, it's easy to use his illustrious career as a crutch. Frankly, it's hard not to. Over his 12-year career, Pujols has averaged a .325 batting average, 40 home runs, 120 RBIs, 115 runs and eight stolen bases per season. That's nothing short of amazing. Consider this: Miguel Cabrera, who is arguably the best hitter in baseball right now, has hit those Triple Crown category benchmarks in a single season only once in his 10-year career.

We can't, however, let those incredible feats cloud our judgment about the player Pujols has been the past couple of years, and more important, the player he'll be in 2013. The argument can be made that while Pujols is no longer fantasy's No. 1 player, he's still worth a first-round pick, because he has very little downside. After all, the worst season of his career still produced a .285 batting average with 30 home runs and 105 RBIs. While that argument holds some validity, it assumes, of course, that his numbers will stop regressing. Unfortunately, there's little reason to think they will.

It's no secret that the slugger has been showing signs of decline in recent seasons, but it's important to realize just how far his skill set has deteriorated over the past several years. What's perhaps most disconcerting about Pujols is the rate at which his plate discipline has regressed. Calling it a "downward spiral" wouldn't be that far off. The table below highlights Pujols' year-to-year "O-Swing" percentage, which is the percentage of pitches a hitter swings at outside the strike zone.

O-Swing percentage

2007: 18.3
2008: 21.6
2009: 22.9
2010: 27.5
2011: 31.8
2012: 36.4
Data courtesy of Fangraphs.com.
Meanwhile, here's his "Z-Swing" percentage, which is the percentage of pitches a hitter swings at inside the strike zone:

Z-Swing percentage

2009: 66.6
2010: 63.0
2011: 62.9
2012: 62.6
Data courtesy of Fangraphs.com.

In short, Pujols just isn't the same hitter he was a few years ago. He's expanding the strike zone more and more every season, and he's now swinging at roughly twice as many pitches outside the zone as he did five years ago. He's even swinging at fewer pitches inside the strike zone. And that's not all. Here's a quick-and-dirty look at the rest of the former Cardinal's trends:

• His on-base percentage has fallen every season since 2008, going from .462 to a career-low .343 last year.

• His slugging percentage has declined each season since 2009, going from .658 to a career-low.516 last year.

• His isolated power has gone down each season since 2009, going from .331 to a career-low .231 last year.

• His strikeout rate has increased three of the past four years, culminating in a career-high 11.3 percent last year.

• His walk rate has decreased each year since 2009, going from 16.4 percent to a career-low 7.8 percent last year.

Not surprisingly, Pujols' 5x5 fantasy stats have also fallen across the board, in conjunction with the numbers above. His RBI total was on a three-year decline before receiving a slight bump last year, and the rest of his fantasy statistics -- batting average, home runs, runs scored and stolen bases -- have declined every season since 2009. Not exactly a ringing endorsement for a guy going in the first round.

Pujols' slow start in 2012, his first season with the Los Angeles Angels, brought plenty of speculation about whether we were seeing the beginning of the end. He batted .217/.265/.304 in April, with zero home runs and just four RBIs. His first home run didn't come until May 6. From that point on, though, Pujols batted .305/.365/.569, easing the concerns of fantasy owners everywhere. However, despite his "turnaround," he sported a .285/.336/.431 slash line and hit just one home run over the season's final 32 games. So if the way Pujols' 2012 season began was unsettling, then the way it ended shouldn't have provided much relief.


It's important to re-emphasize the fact that Pujols didn't just have a down season in 2012, it was the culmination of a skill set that has been declining over the past four or five years. That's an important distinction to make. If Pujols had displayed a stable skill set from 2008-2011 and then had a down year in 2012, there'd be reason to think it was an aberration and that a bounce-back in 2013 would be likely. Instead, we've seen year after year of declining production and regressing skills. The trends suggest things will only get worse this season.

How much worse? Well, Pujols , the top first baseman being selected in early drafts (and, as noted above, No. 5 overall), finished last season as the No. 6 first baseman and the No. 32 player overall, according to the ESPN Player Rater. Based on the way his career is trending, it's not a stretch to think that Pujols, now 33 years old and coming off knee surgery, could slip outside the top 40 or 50 this season. Maybe that seems like a stretch for a guy who has been so productive for so many years, but what indication do we have that he's somehow going to put the brakes on this downhill skid?

It's time we acknowledge what Pujols is now and stop treating him like the player he once was. The 2013 version of the future Hall of Famer is a good player who carries plenty of fantasy value. However, the 2013 version also shouldn't be selected in the first couple of rounds on draft day, much less in the top five overall. The risk, as strange as it may sound, is just too great.
 

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Sleeper steals options: National League
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Eric Karabell

New Cleveland Indians outfielder Michael Bourn is talented and valuable and probably helps old ladies cross the street, but to me he doesn't make for a great keeper or top-50 draft pick. My reasoning is simple: Early-round hitters must provide power, regardless of position, and ideally a fruitful combination of power and speed, and it's tough to justify Bourn types in Round 5. Fantasy owners can wait to find the requisite stolen bases needed to compete in the category.
Well, it's time to point out who some of those options are, starting with the National League, which for the first time in his career, Bourn is no longer a part of. As colleague Keith Lipscomb noted in his smart article on numerous base stealers switching leagues, the pool of NL options is not as great as the AL. But it's not dry, either. You just have to look harder.

<OFFER>One of my favorite standard-format, late-round selections will be Arizona Diamondbacks outfielder Adam Eaton. I competed in the LABR NL-only auction Sunday night and intended to outbid others to acquire Eaton, but apparently the other industry experts in the room (12 teams, 5x5) considered him more than just a sleeper because he went for a whopping $18. I think Eaton can earn that, really, after putting on a show at Triple-A Reno and holding his own the final month with the big club, and I asked him about the transition after Sunday's 5-3 loss to the San Francisco Giants at Scottsdale Stadium.
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"Yeah, there's a big difference between the minors and big leagues mentally," said Eaton, who hit .381 over 488 at-bats at Reno, and .259 in 85 at-bats for the Diamondbacks. "I've been able to adapt to the ballparks, and I've seen pitchers like [Matt] Cain and [Clayton] Kershaw, so you get used to your surroundings quick."

Eaton, a left-handed hitter with modest pop that belies his 5-foot-8, 185-pound frame, brings a smart, patient approach to the plate, and it should translate to the majors. He drew 72 walks across two minor league levels in 2011, another 59 last season, and with the Diamondbacks he took 14 free passes against 15 strikeouts. He certainly wasn't overwhelmed at the plate, getting seven extra-base hits in his 21 starts, and he stands in fine against lefty pitchers. While the odd Cody Ross signing seemed to doom Eaton to more minor league time, the Justin Upton trade resurrected his value.

As for the stolen bases, that's a skill that needs practice at the highest level as well. After being successful on 38 of 48 attempts at Reno, Eaton was caught stealing on three of five attempts in the majors. I asked Eaton about that, knowing it's really a meaningless sample size that tells us nothing, but to see if he thought it mattered.

"It was an adjustment period for stealing bases, but I'll get used to it," said Eaton, who on Sunday singled and hit a sacrifice fly in four plate appearances, and also made a tremendous diving catch in the outfield. "Just stay with the game plan. In spring training it's hard to see. Whether I can steal 30 or 40 bases, that's more for you to say!"

Perhaps it is, and I don't mind saying it: This is a guy who can steal 30 or 40 bases. Of course, I wasn't able to acquire him Sunday night, but I did spend one measly dollar on his potential backup, the ridiculously fast Tony Campana. Don't expect Eaton to fail, though. I have him pegged for 32 steals, along with a .290 batting average, 8 home runs and 86 runs scored. I don't see much risk, either. He's ready to emerge, though it's a bit surprising that 56 outfielders are being selected ahead of him in ESPN average live drafts. As noted in our staff sleepers/busts article, quite a few of us are in Eaton's corner.

By the time March ends, Eaton might not be much of a sleeper anymore, perhaps breaking into our top 200 (I'd take him in Round 17 or 18, at worst). Here are others in the NL who also fit the sleeper steals designation, and let's exclude obvious choices such as Ben Revere, Juan Pierre, Dee Gordon and Everth Cabrera, who stole plenty of bases in 2012, and Billy Hamilton, who has received plenty of attention. None of these players below are projected by ESPN Fantasy for 25 steals, but a few are certainly capable.

Tony Campana, OF, Diamondbacks: He doesn't have a clear path to playing time, but Campana stole 30 bases in 2012 in only 174 at-bats. Over two seasons, he's 54-for-59 on steals in 317 at-bats. If he makes the team, he'll run, even in a reserve role. Imagine if he got 300 at-bats! He's easily worth a dollar (or more) in NL-only formats.

Cliff Pennington, 2B/SS, Diamondbacks: After stealing 29 bases in 2010, he has 29 combined over the past two seasons. Still, he's the starting shortstop until Didi Gregorius gets healthy, and perhaps beyond.

Andrelton Simmons, SS, Atlanta Braves: Has only a little pop, but he ran a bit in the minors. He's leading off and probably getting 500 at-bats, and should help in steals and runs.

Logan Schafer, OF, Milwaukee Brewers: The team's fourth outfielder stole 16 bases at Triple-A Nashville, and hit nine triples, and he could steal time from Carlos Gomez in center field. The unrelated Jordan Schafer, by the way, swiped 27 bases for the Houston Astros (not a Triple-A team, officially) and is back on the Braves, where he could do it again.

Mike Baxter, Collin Cowgill, OF, New York Mets: Well, someone's gotta play in this outfield. Cowgill has more stolen base potential, netting 30 steals in 33 attempts at Triple-A Reno in 2011.

More: Outfield prospects Brett Jackson of the Chicago Cubs and Gary Brown of the Giants certainly can run. Jackson has holes in his swing but should play, while Brown is probably better suited for 2014. … The Philadelphia Phillies plucked a Rule 5 outfield prospect named Ender Inciarte from Arizona, though it's hard to see how he makes the team. He stole 46 bags last season in the low minors, and while they play different positions, he reminds me of Everth Cabrera in his build and approach. … Chone Figgins is on the Marlins now. Nah, I just can't go there. … Pittsburgh still has Alex Presley and Jose Tabata, neither locks to make the team. Presley was 9-for-16 in steals for the Bucs; Tabata was 8-for-20. Sounds like the Pirates need Davey Lopes to coach first base. … Eric Young Jr. and Charlie Blackmon are better base stealers, but playing time will be tough in Colorado. … Finally, Jedd Gyorko looks like San Diego's new second baseman, but Logan Forsythe plays better defense and could steal 15 bases. The Padres also have utility guy Alexi Amarista, who ran in the minors, though he also was unsuccessful quite a bit.

Tomorrow: the American League stolen base sleepers!
 

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Making the case for Trout at No. 1

By AJ Mass | ESPN.com

Mike Trout's stats in his 2012 rookie season were, in a word, phenomenal. With a .326 batting average, 30 home runs and 49 stolen bases, he was a slam-dunk choice for American League Rookie of the Year, and he finished second in the AL MVP voting behind Miguel Cabrera. And in my opinion, there's nobody else who deserves to be selected with the No. 1 overall pick in 2013 fantasy drafts.

It's difficult to express just how amazing Trout's 2012 season actually was on a historical level. To begin to put it into perspective, you first have to understand that there have been only 26 seasons in the history of baseball in which a hitter posted a .300 average, 30 homers and 30 steals. That's including players with all levels of experience, not just rookies. For Trout to have achieved the task as a rookie is an even rarer feat. There have been 25 players who have hit 30 or more home runs in their rookie season. The list of players with 49 or more stolen bases expands to 44 names. And when it comes to a batting average of .326 or higher (with at least 400 plate appearances), we end up one name shy of 50. However, Trout is the only one to be on all three of those lists.
From now on, people will wonder who is going to be the "next Mike Trout." But there's not going to be one. Trout's 2012 was so over-the-top good that the chances of anybody duplicating the feat are nearly nonexistent. If you were to lower the bar of expectations for rookies to the level of a player like Ben Zobrist, who was No. 68 on the ESPN Player Rater last year, one stolen base shy of hitting .270 with 20 home runs and 15 steals, you'd still be looking at only 14 names on that list.
In other words, in the history of baseball, only 14 rookies have ever managed to produce at that level in those three offensive categories. That's 14 in 142 seasons covering 16,219 hitters who managed at least one plate appearance in their careers. Here's the complete list:
PlayerYearPAHRSBBAAge
Mike Trout20126393049.32620
Yoenis Cespedes20125402316.29226
Bryce Harper20125972218.27019
Ryan Braun20074923415.32423
Carlos Beltran19997232227.29322
Nomar Garciaparra19977343022.30623
Scott Rolen19976572116.28322
Marty Cordova19955792420.27725
Ellis Burks19876062027.27222
Mitchell Page19775922142.30725
Tommie Agee19666892244.27323
Vada Pinson*19597062021.31620
Orlando Cepeda19586432515.31220
Buck Freeman18996342521.31827

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*Pinson was not considered to be a rookie in 1959 by the standards of the time, but would have been under current rules. Trout didn't just narrowly make his way onto this list the way Bryce Harper did. He absolutely blew these milestones out of the water. Trout was so good as a rookie from a historical perspective that he's almost a better bet to post a .300 average, 30 homers and 30 steals again in 2013 than 98 percent of the league is to hit .270-20-15. The safety of that probability for success makes him as close to a lock for the No. 1 overall pick as perhaps we've ever seen or ever will see in fantasy baseball.
Don't believe me? Well, let's break down each of these three categories:
[h=3]Speed[/h]
Last season, Trout stole 49 bases in 54 attempts, a success rate of 90.7 percent. Certainly players don't take off for second each and every time they reach first base. The score of the game sometimes dictates that you get a red light, or there could be a runner already standing on second when they reach first base safely. However, Trout did attempt to steal on 28 percent of all "opportunities," which I'm defining as his total singles, walks and hit by pitches. That ranked eighth among all players with at least 100 hits and 10 stolen bases.
If we take his 2013 ESPN projections to determine his stolen base opportunities, even if we were to lower his steal attempt rate to 25 percent and his success rate to a mere 70 percent, he'd still reach 32 steals for the year. In short, anything shy of 30 steals would be an absolute shock.
[h=3]Average[/h]Trout's detractors will point to his .269 batting average from Aug. 24 to the end of the season as a warning sign that the wheels are due to come off, and that it's best to jump off the bandwagon before they do. That's nonsense. A body of work is full of statistical cherry-picking like this. In fact, during that same stretch of games, we can pull out a subset from Sept. 3-15 in which Trout hit .319, and he hit .361 from Sept. 25 through Oct. 3.
You could also grab a chunk of games from earlier in the season, when Trout could presumably do no wrong, and find a "lowly" .268 batting average from June 12-23. That's the problem with thin-slicing statistics. You can usually find a small enough sample size to prove the glass is half-empty if you want. But let's look at the season as a whole. Trout hit .346 against right-handed pitching and just .267 against lefties. The room for growth against southpaws is what makes me believe that any regression in his overall batting average will be minimal.
[h=3]Power[/h]Here's the one category in which one might legitimately expect Trout to fall short of the mark. After all, he hit exactly 30 home runs last season, and he needed an incredibly high HR/FB rate (21.6 percent) to reach that milestone. But here's the thing about that number: It was the ninth-highest HR/FB rate in baseball, but if you look at his nearest neighbors on that list, you'll see some familiar names:
PlayerHR/FBFB%
Miguel Cabrera23.036.0
Ryan Braun22.838.1
Mike Trout21.633.0

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The HR/FB rate was a career high for both Cabrera and Braun, so I would argue that perhaps Trout's 30 home runs are actually more repeatable -- especially if he hits a few more fly balls in 2013 -- than are the career-high home run totals for either of the other two potential No. 1 picks. Certainly, you can't make the argument against Trout without using the same one against Cabrera and Braun.
[h=3]Putting it all together[/h]I'm expecting Trout to have a season no worse than .300-25-40, which is a stat line that only 15 players in the history of the game have ever reached. Even if you lowered the batting average to .280, you're still looking at something only 19 players have managed to pull off. That's likely to be no worse than top-five on the Player Rater if you throw in some combination of 180 runs and RBIs, something he easily accomplished last season for the Angels in a lineup that did not contain Josh Hamilton.
A legitimate argument certainly could be made for any of the trio of Trout, Braun or Cabrera at No. 1 overall. But for me, it's Trout. Braun has the specter of the Biogenesis reports hovering over him, which offers at least a little risk. And yes, Cabrera might well post better numbers than Trout in four of the five offensive categories. But given that you'll be able to count on one hand the number of players who might have more steals than Trout in 2013, while you can use the other hand to count the number of total steals Cabrera will have (and still have a few fingers left over), that tips the scales wildly in Trout's favor for me.
 

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Kings of Command for 2013

By Tristan H. Cockcroft | ESPN.com

When it comes to pitching, you should draft skills, not raw Rotisserie stats.

The advent of sabermetrics has heightened the bar for finding pitching gems -- a point Todd Zola illustrates well in this Insider piece -- and these days, if you're not using some sort of advanced metric to formulate a pitching plan, you're at a disadvantage.

But here's a fair follow-up question: Exactly what stats should I be using?

"Command" statistics -- things like strikeouts, walks and home runs allowed, which are ones pitchers most easily influence -- are a good place to start. Analysts like Ron Shandler, whose "LIMA Plan" (Low Investment Mound Aces) developed in the late 1990s shares similar traits with those listed below, helped bring them to the mainstream many years ago; newer statistical categories such as FIP, xFIP and SIERA were also created heavily weighting these pitching skills. FIP in particular has become a popular, quick, one-size-fits-all such measure.

It's for that reason that each spring, I compile a list of 10 pitchers who, thanks to meeting a specific set of criteria in these command categories, are attractive bargain candidates for the upcoming season. None of these players is tabbed for his performance in such standard Rotisserie categories as wins or ERA; these are irrelevant categories that don't properly identify pitching skills.

I call this list "Kings of Command," and it takes a select list of pitchers who possess the greatest ability to control their own destiny, and picks 10 individuals from that group as breakout candidates. Past lists have identified previous-year underperformers who excelled in the season in question: Jake Peavy (2012), James Shields (2011), Cole Hamels (2010), Josh Johnson (2009) and Mike Mussina (2008) are just five such examples. And, yes, those lists were populated by a handful of busts, just as there might be a bust on the list below. The track record of these lists' success, however, remains more extensive.

Pitchers who qualify for inclusion in this annual list meet each of the following five minimum baselines:


[h=3]"Kings of Command" baseline numbers[/h]
Batters faced: 200 or more
Strikeout rate (K% of batters faced): 16 percent or more
Walk rate (BB% of batters faced): 8 percent or less
Command rate (K's per walk): 2.50 or more
Ground ball rate (GB% of all balls in play): 42.5 percent or more

If you've read this column in past seasons, you'll first notice a few key changes to this year's criteria: The command numbers have migrated to per-batters-faced rates rather than per-inning, and ground ball rate has replaced fly ball rate. The former provides a more telling tale of a pitcher's skill, eliminating any assumption that a pitcher faces an identical number of batters per inning, a point made excellently by Joe Sheehan in recent years. The latter, meanwhile, does a better job of emphasizing a pitcher's ability to induce weaker contact; using fly ball rate ignores the possibility that said pitcher might have also afforded a high rate of line drives, which might have contributed to his poor Rotisserie stats. Remember, there's greater debate as to what constitutes a fly ball versus a line drive rather than between a ground ball and either of the other two.

Last season, 652 pitchers appeared in a big league game, and of those, only 84 met all five criteria. That group included: Both Cy Young winners, R.A. Dickey and David Price (who earned 59 of the 60 first-place votes and 19 percent of the total points in the Cy Young balloting); and each of the top six pitchers on our Player Rater, Dickey, Fernando Rodney, Justin Verlander, Clayton Kershaw, Craig Kimbrel and Price, as well as 16 of the top 22.

Not one of those 2012 fantasy studs was picked for the list below; it'd serve no purpose. The point is to pick 10 who didn't excel rotisseriewise in 2012, pitchers who fell outside the top 50 pitchers on our Player Rater. These 10 compared favorably to the aforementioned fantasy standouts in these command categories, with their skills hinting they deserved better fortune.

These 10 "Kings of Command" are listed in alphabetical order, along with their statistics in the above categories, and a look at what they'd need to do in order to break through in 2013.


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[h=4]Jake Arrieta[/h][h=5]Baltimore Orioles
2012 Player Rater: #206 SP[/h]2012 "Kings of Command" stats

  • <CENTER>TBF</CENTER><CENTER>496</CENTER>
  • <CENTER>K%</CENTER><CENTER>22.0</CENTER>
  • <CENTER>BB%</CENTER><CENTER>7.1</CENTER>
  • <CENTER>K/BB</CENTER><CENTER>3.11</CENTER>
  • <CENTER>GB%</CENTER><CENTER>45.2</CENTER>
  • <CENTER>FIP</CENTER><CENTER>3.99</CENTER>


<!-- end player card -->

[h=3]Jake Arrieta, Baltimore Orioles[/h]
His 2012 rotisserie statistics might be the worst I've ever seen in the 13 seasons in which I've written this column: He had three wins in 24 games, 18 of them starts. He had a 6.20 ERA. Ouch. Still, that means Arrieta will be cheap in AL-only leagues -- he was a $1 buy in the recent League of Alternative Baseball Reality (LABR) auction -- and let's point out that, excluding his innings-pitched total, his statistics in the other command categories listed above were all better than those of Ryan Dempster or Ryan Vogelsong, two top-50 pitchers on our Player Rater. It's cherry-picking, yes, but it's difficult to ignore that Arrieta was done in by miserable luck: He had a .320 BABIP, a 57.3 left-on-base percentage and 14.5 home run/fly ball percentage. That's tough to do.

What would spawn a breakout? More than anything, winning a rotation spot, which is not going to be easy. Arrieta faces an uphill climb in that quest, then he'll need better fortune if he does emerge. It'd also help if he could develop a quality pitch to use against lefties; they hit .292 against him last year.

His chances of doing so? The worst of anyone on this list, but fantasy owners occasionally need to take chances. Arrieta is a speculative final-round AL-only pick, or someone to monitor in-season if he falls short in his rotation fight.


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[h=4]Homer Bailey[/h][h=5]Cincinnati Reds
2012 Player Rater: #36 SP[/h]2012 "Kings of Command" stats

  • <CENTER>TBF</CENTER><CENTER>874</CENTER>
  • <CENTER>K%</CENTER><CENTER>19.2</CENTER>
  • <CENTER>BB%</CENTER><CENTER>5.9</CENTER>
  • <CENTER>K/BB</CENTER><CENTER>3.23</CENTER>
  • <CENTER>GB%</CENTER><CENTER>45.2</CENTER>
  • <CENTER>FIP</CENTER><CENTER>4.05</CENTER>


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[h=3]Homer Bailey, Cincinnati Reds[/h]
A late bloomer of a prospect -- he was Keith Law's No. 9 prospect overall in 2008 -- Bailey took six seasons in the bigs before ever reaching the 10-win, 30-start or 150-strikeout plateaus or posting an ERA beneath 4.00. But while he was the highest placing of these 10 names on the 2012 Player Rater, Rotisserie performance is not the reason he's an enticing breakout candidate on many fantasy owners' lists. Rather, it's that he has improved his strikeout-to-walk ratio in each big league season, culminating in a 3.23 mark in 2012 that even trumped his career minor league number of 2.43, while posting a personal-high 45.2 percent ground ball rate last season. Bailey wouldn't have met this column's criteria in any previous big league season; that shows how much he has grown as a pitcher.

What would spawn a breakout? Considering Bailey's hitter-friendly home ballpark, further improvements to his K/BB or ground ball ratios would help.

His chances of doing so? Bailey managed a 3.83 K/BB and 49.0 percent ground ball rate after the All-Star break last season, and he was once described as possessing an ace pedigree. His breakout prospects are outstanding.


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[h=4]Alex Cobb[/h][h=5]Tampa Bay Rays
2012 Player Rater: #80 SP[/h]2012 "Kings of Command" stats

  • <CENTER>TBF</CENTER><CENTER>569</CENTER>
  • <CENTER>K%</CENTER><CENTER>18.6</CENTER>
  • <CENTER>BB%</CENTER><CENTER>7.0</CENTER>
  • <CENTER>K/BB</CENTER><CENTER>2.65</CENTER>
  • <CENTER>GB%</CENTER><CENTER>58.9</CENTER>
  • <CENTER>FIP</CENTER><CENTER>3.64</CENTER>


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[h=3]Alex Cobb, Tampa Bay Rays[/h]
Cobb entered the Rays' rotation last May en route to an ordinary 4.03 ERA, 1.25 WHIP Rotisserie numbers, but the skill that should've caught your eye was his changeup: He had the 10th-most strikeouts (55) with the pitch and 11th-lowest OPS allowed (.542) among those who threw at least 400 changeups, despite making only 23 starts (full-time starters go 30-35 times). One elite pitch can often be enough, and in Cobb's case, don't overlook that he managed a 3.16 ERA and 1.08 WHIP in his final 12 starts of 2012, which are very solid rotisserie stats.

What would spawn a breakout? One (or both) of two things: Polish on his other pitches, presumably either his two-seam fastball, which helped contribute to a 58.9 percent ground ball rate last season, or his curveball; or an increase in his miss rate on swings (19.4 percent), which probably plays off the former point.

His chances of doing so? Cobb continues to exceed expectations in each career step, so why can't they be sneaky good? He already has 12 K's compared to one walk in nine spring innings, so the seeds are being sown.


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[h=4]Patrick Corbin[/h][h=5]Arizona Diamondbacks
2012 Player Rater: #129 SP[/h]2012 "Kings of Command" stats

  • <CENTER>TBF</CENTER><CENTER>454</CENTER>
  • <CENTER>K%</CENTER><CENTER>18.9</CENTER>
  • <CENTER>BB%</CENTER><CENTER>5.5</CENTER>
  • <CENTER>K/BB</CENTER><CENTER>3.44</CENTER>
  • <CENTER>GB%</CENTER><CENTER>46.0</CENTER>
  • <CENTER>FIP</CENTER><CENTER>4.07</CENTER>


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[h=3]Patrick Corbin, Arizona Diamondbacks[/h]
Perhaps on paper he's not as exciting an up-and-comer as his competition for the Diamondbacks' fifth-starter job, Randall Delgado and Tyler Skaggs, but Corbin's advantage is the lowest basement of the three, at least for 2013. He's the kind of sharp-command, balanced-splits type who might make a smart real-life fallback for the team if neither alternative works out, and a smart fantasy investment, too, as a back-of-your-staff, shouldn't-hurt-you type. Only two rookie starters met the "Kings of Command" criteria in 2012, Corbin and Wade Miley, and Miley, the runner-up for National League Rookie of the Year honors, has a somewhat similar profile that illustrates a potential high-end stat line for Corbin.

What would spawn a breakout? More polish on his fastball -- opponents batted .316 against it -- a few more lucky bounces and, naturally, his emerging the victor of the fifth-starter race.

His chances of doing so? The Miley comparison isn't meant to exaggerate your expectations; Corbin's 2013 upside is likely noticeably less than that, capped at NL-only appeal. But as Delgado and Skaggs have a 16.88 ERA combined thus far in the spring, Corbin is a more intriguing sleeper than you might think.


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[h=4]Octavio Dotel[/h][h=5]Detroit Tigers
2012 Player Rater: #70 RP[/h]2012 "Kings of Command" stats

  • <CENTER>TBF</CENTER><CENTER>234</CENTER>
  • <CENTER>K%</CENTER><CENTER>26.5</CENTER>
  • <CENTER>BB%</CENTER><CENTER>5.1</CENTER>
  • <CENTER>K/BB</CENTER><CENTER>5.17</CENTER>
  • <CENTER>GB%</CENTER><CENTER>43.4</CENTER>
  • <CENTER>FIP</CENTER><CENTER>2.11</CENTER>


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[h=3]Octavio Dotel, Detroit Tigers[/h]
No matter what the Tigers tell you, their closer job, vacated when Jose Valverde filed for free agency the day after the team's World Series loss, is up for grabs this spring. Barring a surprise signing of Valverde or Francisco Rodriguez or Brian Wilson or … Todd Jones? … any member of the team's projected Opening Day bullpen could be a candidate to assume ninth-inning duties. So why not Dotel, who leads the roster in career saves (109)? Crack jokes about wildness, comparing rookie Bruce Rondon -- the team's advertised top choice -- to a young, wild Dotel, but then check the facts: Dotel posted personal bests in K-to-walk (1.86) and ground ball (43.4 percent) rates in 2012. He has become a much better pitcher, dating back to … hmm … his second half of 2011 pitching for Dave Duncan's staff.

What would spawn a breakout? He'd need Rondon to continue to struggle with his command, a la 1999 Dotel, then manager Jim Leyland to overlook Phil Coke, Joaquin Benoit and Al Alburquerque.

His chances of doing so? Not especially good, considering Dotel is now 39 years old and recently criticized the team's marquee player (Miguel Cabrera) publicly. But it's not unthinkable, which is why he's on the list. Remember, Kyle Farnsworth remade himself at 35 years old and earned a closer job, and Leyland has already voiced his preference for a "dominant closer," a hint that he prefers experience in the role?


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[h=4]Dillon Gee[/h][h=5]New York Mets
2012 Player Rater: #105 SP[/h]2012 "Kings of Command" stats

  • <CENTER>TBF</CENTER><CENTER>463</CENTER>
  • <CENTER>K%</CENTER><CENTER>21.0</CENTER>
  • <CENTER>BB%</CENTER><CENTER>6.3</CENTER>
  • <CENTER>K/BB</CENTER><CENTER>3.34</CENTER>
  • <CENTER>GB%</CENTER><CENTER>51.8</CENTER>
  • <CENTER>FIP</CENTER><CENTER>3.83</CENTER>


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[h=3]Dillon Gee, New York Mets[/h]
Gee's improved command in 2012 was an imperative ingredient to his future success; he lacks overpowering stuff and must hit spots to thrive. Just as he did in the low minors, last season he restored his K-to-walk rate to 3-plus levels, and thanks to a two-seamer, he was able to boost his ground ball rate higher than 50 percent (51.8 percent), another crucial ingredient for a finesse type. Though Gee missed the second half of the season recovering from surgery to repair artery damage in his right shoulder, all reports on his rehabilitation have been positive, and he has already made one solid spring appearance.

What would spawn a breakout? Assuming his command numbers remain where they were in 2012, better luck is all Gee needs: He had a 68.9 left-on-base percentage and 12.8 home run/fly ball percentage.

His chances of doing so? Good enough, though Gee should never be mistaken for a top-25 fantasy starter even in the best-case scenario.


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[h=4]Ivan Nova[/h][h=5]New York Yankees
2012 Player Rater: #132 SP[/h]2012 "Kings of Command" stats

  • <CENTER>TBF</CENTER><CENTER>748</CENTER>
  • <CENTER>K%</CENTER><CENTER>20.5</CENTER>
  • <CENTER>BB%</CENTER><CENTER>7.5</CENTER>
  • <CENTER>K/BB</CENTER><CENTER>2.73</CENTER>
  • <CENTER>GB%</CENTER><CENTER>45.4</CENTER>
  • <CENTER>FIP</CENTER><CENTER>4.56</CENTER>


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[h=3]Ivan Nova, New York Yankees[/h]
This year's "Kings of Command" takes some serious chances, from Arrieta to, in this case, Nova, who had a 5.02 ERA and 1.47 WHIP in 28 starts last season. He possesses some of the filthiest breaking stuff of anyone in baseball; opponents batted .200 against his curveball and slider and whiffed 130 times against them, the third-largest total in the majors. Nova also, in spite of his awful rotisserie statistics, made a few key strides: Besides the command stats, he also boosted his swing-and-miss rate (22 percent, up from 17) and kicked up the velocity on his fastball (93.0 mph on average, up from 92.6).

What would spawn a breakout? Let's talk about that fastball, which was disastrous. Opponents batted .358 with a 1.034 OPS against it, and his .344 well-hit average allowed (which measures at-bats which ended in hard contact) was the worst among ERA qualifiers, those numbers representing huge drop-offs from his 2011 performance. Nova's quest is clear: Fix the fastball.

His chances of doing so? Admittedly, it's unclear. Nova's velocity touched 94 mph in his first spring training appearance, and he and pitching coach Larry Rothschild have been working on shortening his arm action in camp, signs that he's at least addressing the problem. That's good, but it takes more than spring chatter to spawn a breakthrough. Nova must be monitored closely; he's a bench stash, the worst case has you cutting him if he doesn't improve by April.


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[h=4]Jeff Samardzija[/h][h=5]Chicago Cubs
2012 Player Rater: #49 SP[/h]2012 "Kings of Command" stats

  • <CENTER>TBF</CENTER><CENTER>723</CENTER>
  • <CENTER>K%</CENTER><CENTER>24.9</CENTER>
  • <CENTER>BB%</CENTER><CENTER>7.7</CENTER>
  • <CENTER>K/BB</CENTER><CENTER>3.21</CENTER>
  • <CENTER>GB%</CENTER><CENTER>44.9</CENTER>
  • <CENTER>FIP</CENTER><CENTER>3.64</CENTER>


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[h=3]Jeff Samardzija, Chicago Cubs[/h]
Restored to the rotation at the onset of last year, Samardzija thrived in what was a low-pressure environment in Chicago, posting the majors' fourth-best K's per nine innings ratio (9.27) and seventh-best strikeout percentage of batters faced (24.9), en route to 17 quality starts in 28 tries and the majors' 14th-best xFIP (3.38). As a result of his breakthrough, not to mention his workload bump of 86 2/3 innings from 2011 to 2012, fantasy owners might be skeptical about his prospects for further growth. But consider what spawned it: Increased reliance and polish on his splitter, which was responsible for 100 of his 180 K's while limiting hitters to a .128 batting average, and vastly improved control, with his 2.89 walks-per-nine ratio sitting well beneath the 5.30 number he posted in his first four big league seasons.

What would spawn a breakout (in his case an additional step)? More stamina -- think 30-plus starts and 200-plus innings -- and more run support, but some better luck in home run/fly ball percentage at Wrigley (17.6 percent there in 2012) would be a plus.

His chances of doing so? Samardzija was a starter in the minors, it's not like 174 2/3 innings is excessive, and he finished on a high note, with a 2.58 ERA and 1.02 WHIP in his final 11 starts. His odds are good.


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[h=4]Anibal Sanchez[/h][h=5]Detroit Tigers
2012 Player Rater: #60 SP[/h]2012 "Kings of Command" stats

  • <CENTER>TBF</CENTER><CENTER>820</CENTER>
  • <CENTER>K%</CENTER><CENTER>20.4</CENTER>
  • <CENTER>BB%</CENTER><CENTER>5.9</CENTER>
  • <CENTER>K/BB</CENTER><CENTER>3.48</CENTER>
  • <CENTER>GB%</CENTER><CENTER>48.0</CENTER>
  • <CENTER>FIP</CENTER><CENTER>3.61</CENTER>


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[h=3]Anibal Sanchez, Detroit Tigers[/h]
This is the second consecutive season in which Sanchez cracks the "Kings of Command 10," and in defense of the repeat appearance, it was hinted in this space last year that he might "spin his wheels." I simply got the reason wrong: It was because his Miami Marlins were awful, not because his team switched ballparks. But if Sanchez was picked last year because of underrated skills, this year he's picked for both underrated skills and a circumstance that can drive rotisserie value; these Tigers will score runs for him. Last season, Sanchez set personal bests in K's per walk (3.48) and ground ball (48.0 percent) ratios, meaning he made major advances that might've been overshadowed by his nine-win total.

What would spawn a breakout? Additional run support and/or a return to his career-best 25 percent swing-and-miss rate (22 percent in 2012).

His chances of doing so? Perhaps better than you think. The Tigers averaged nearly three quarters of a run per game more than the Marlins last season, and Sanchez had 11 quality starts and a 3.32 ERA in 15 starts (playoffs included) following his midseason change of teams.


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[h=4]Adam Wainwright[/h][h=5]St. Louis Cardinals
2012 Player Rater: #37 SP[/h]2012 "Kings of Command" stats

  • <CENTER>TBF</CENTER><CENTER>831</CENTER>
  • <CENTER>K%</CENTER><CENTER>22.1</CENTER>
  • <CENTER>BB%</CENTER><CENTER>6.3</CENTER>
  • <CENTER>K/BB</CENTER><CENTER>3.54</CENTER>
  • <CENTER>GB%</CENTER><CENTER>50.9</CENTER>
  • <CENTER>FIP</CENTER><CENTER>3.18</CENTER>


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[h=3]Adam Wainwright, St. Louis Cardinals[/h]
One of five pitchers to have a FIP (3.10) more than three-quarters of a run lower than his ERA (3.94), Wainwright's Rotisserie statistics during his return campaign from Tommy John surgery were done in by unlucky breaks. He had the game's fifth-highest qualified BABIP (.315) and fifth-lowest qualified left-on-base percentage (67.8 percent), both of those numbers well outside the range of his career norms. It's understandable; his staple pitch is his curveball, and it's probable that he never fully recaptured the feel for it as he worked himself back to full strength.

What would spawn a break-, er, return to glory? It's almost entirely about the curve; will he possess the same feel for it that he had during his Cy Young runner-up campaign in 2010?

His chances of doing so? Excellent, considering he threw his curve four percent more often after the All-Star break than before it, resulting in a 3.49 ERA, 1.16 WHIP and 10 quality starts in his final 18 tries.

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[h=4]"Kings of Command" master list[/h]Over the years, readers have frequently requested the full list of pitchers who met all of the "Kings of Command" criteria. Listed below are the 84 pitchers who did so in 2012:
Pitcher<CENTER>FIP</CENTER><CENTER> </CENTER>Pitcher<CENTER>FIP</CENTER><CENTER> </CENTER>Pitcher<CENTER>FIP</CENTER>
Craig Kimbrel0.91 Cristhian Martinez3.12 Edward Mujica3.63
Jake McGee1.61 Jonathan Broxton3.15 A.J. Burnett3.64
Fernando Rodney2.11 Troy Patton3.16 Jeff Samardzija3.64
Octavio Dotel2.11 Matt Lindstrom3.16 Alex Cobb3.64
Sean Marshall2.27 Adam Wainwright3.18 Shawn Camp3.66
J.J. Putz2.45 Chris Sale3.21 Ryan Vogelsong3.72
David Robertson2.50 Zack Greinke3.23 Vicente Padilla3.79
Kelvin Herrera2.51 Cliff Lee3.26 Roy Halladay3.81
Kris Medlen2.55 Phil Coke3.26 Ryan Dempster3.82
Scott Atchison2.56 Wade Miley3.28 Dillon Gee3.83
Wilton Lopez2.74 CC Sabathia3.32 Hiroki Kuroda3.85
Joe Nathan2.75 Johnny Cueto3.33 Mat Latos3.85
Sean Burnett2.76 Jared Burton3.35 Edwin Jackson3.89
Sergio Romo2.77 Luke Gregerson3.36 Jonathon Niese3.90
Felix Hernandez2.85 R.A. Dickey3.37 Joe Blanton3.96
Matt Belisle2.87 Cole Hamels3.39 Jake Arrieta3.99
Justin Verlander2.93 Burke Badenhop3.40 Homer Bailey4.05
Stephen Strasburg2.93 Doug Fister3.42 Patrick Corbin4.07
Clayton Kershaw2.95 Mitchell Boggs3.42 Paul Maholm4.08
Dale Thayer2.96 Chad Billingsley3.43 Jerome Williams4.14
Darren Oliver2.97 James Shields3.46 Josh Beckett4.17
Jonathan Papelbon2.98 Wesley Wright3.47 Kameron Loe4.20
Matt Thornton3.02 Mike Adams3.47 Roy Oswalt4.25
David Price3.03 Andy Pettitte3.49 Matt Garza4.29
Bobby Parnell3.03 Madison Bumgarner3.54 Corey Kluber4.30
Glen Perkins3.05 Jordan Zimmermann3.60 Ivan Nova4.56
Casey Janssen3.05 Anibal Sanchez3.61 Matt Reynolds4.62
Jaime Garcia3.07 Kyle Lohse3.62 Derek Holland4.77

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[h=1]Elements of ERA[/h][h=3]Keep eye on factors that constitute the earned run average statistic[/h]By Tristan H. Cockcroft | ESPN.com

Ask the average person to measure a pitcher's skill with a singular statistic. How many would spit his earned run average, or ERA, back at you?

Even in today's numbers-heavy game, long-standing measures such as ERA remain in the forefront of many people's minds; familiarity exercises much influence.


Here's the problem: ERA might be an accurate measure of what has transpired during a specific, past period of time -- most frequently a single season -- but it is one of the most misleading tools for forecasting future success. And forecasting future success is all that matters in fantasy baseball.

ERA's value is in how it accounts for the two most critical skills of a pitcher: recording outs and preventing runs. It is also one of the five primary Rotisserie categories, necessitating an ERA projection for each pitcher.

At the same time, ERA's failing is its inability to account for external factors that influence the final number. Even the Wikipedia page for earned run average hints at its misleading nature, saying that "because of the dependence of ERA on factors over which a pitcher has little control, forecasting future ERAs on the basis of the past ERAs of a given pitcher is not very reliable and can be improved if analysts rely on other performance indicators such as strikeout rates and walk rates."

It's for that reason that when formulating projections, we must consider the context of individuals' ERAs. For example, Kyle Lohse had the majors' eighth-best ERA in 2012 (2.86), but due to his uncertain status for 2013, he's projected for a 3.63 ERA, representing one of the largest increases for any individual this year. We do this accounting for a variety of factors detailed below: Team defense, left-on-base percentage and ballpark factors are the ones most relevant in Lohse's case.

And those are not the only three factors that influence the ERA category. Here's a closer look at those and some others you should consider:

[h=3]Team defense[/h]
Perhaps there is no greater influence on a pitcher's ERA than the defense behind him. That doesn't refer only to earned versus unearned runs due to errors and passed balls; that includes range, or a defense's ability to convert batted balls into outs. A team with poor range -- hello, Cleveland Indians -- will afford more hits and thus result in pitchers affording more earned runs than one stocked with players who cover considerable ground.

Sure enough, of the five teams that arguably sported the worst defenses in 2012, using statistics such as FanGraphs' Ultimate Zone Rating and Baseball Info Solutions' Defensive Runs Saved -- the Indians, Colorado Rockies, Houston Astros, Detroit Tigers and New York Mets -- four ranked among the 11 worst in team ERA, and those teams had five of the 16 worst individual ERA qualifiers in the game. The Tigers, thanks primarily to immensely skilled starting pitchers as well as a staff that struck out the fifth most hitters in the game (1,318), were the outlier: Their 3.77 team ERA was 10th best. Having Justin Verlander sure helps!

Let's return to the Indians for a moment. A casual onlooker might note that they, as a team, sported the majors' ninth-best fielding percentage (.984) and ninth-fewest errors (96) last season, giving them an appearance of a middle-of-the-road-to-above defense. However, upon further inspection, the Indians had the game's worst UZR (minus-57), and their minus-51 Defensive Runs Saved -- a positive number is the goal in that department -- was third worst.

Future prospectors, however, need account for the Indians' winter moves: The team unloaded its worst defender, Shin-Soo Choo (minus-17 UZR, minus-12 DRS in 2012), while acquiring two of the game's better performers in the field, Michael Bourn (22.4 UZR, 24 DRS) and Drew Stubbs (6.8 UZR, 2 DRS), and moving Michael Brantley to a more suitable home in left field. The Indians' outfield defense -- also accounting for the addition of the at-least-league-average Nick Swisher in right field -- should be substantially improved, which in turn might benefit the team's ERA.

It's for that reason that when evaluating individual pitchers, consider using one of several statistics that measure skill independent of defensive factors. There are many: dERA (Defense-independent ERA), CERA (Component ERA), DICE (Defense Independent Component ERA), SIERA (Skill Interactive ERA) … but among the most popular are FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching score, on an ERA scale) and xFIP (Expected FIP), easily found on such websites as FanGraphs.

FIP is a strong measure of a pitcher's performance regardless of how his fielders fared behind him, counting only numbers upon which he himself exercises influence: home runs, walks, strikeouts and hit batsmen. The xFIP, meanwhile, "normalizes" home runs -- remember that such factors as ballpark and weather can influence that -- calculating the formula using the league average of home runs allowed per fly ball.

Pitchers whose FIP or xFIP varies greatly from their ERA might have either benefited from particularly good or bad defense, or particularly good or bad luck, or even both. That's why it's important to examine how the pitcher got to his final ERA; use FIP and xFIP to see if there's an obvious explanation.

Be sure to consider a pitcher's history in terms of FIP/xFIP, however, as a select few individuals have exhibited an ability to succeed in ERA despite a poor track record in FIP/xFIP. Jeremy Hellickson, for example, has now posted back-to-back seasons of FIPs greater than 4.40 but ERAs of 3.10 or better. Sure, the Tampa Bay Rays' strong defense behind him has contributed, and should continue to do so in 2013, but it's also possible that Hellickson is one of those rare examples of the pitcher who routinely outperforms his peripherals.

These were the 2012 leaders and trailers in both FIP and xFIP:

<STYLE type=text/css>.mod-inline td img {margin: 0px;}</STYLE>
LEADERS IN FIP<CENTER></CENTER>LEADERS IN xFIP
Player<CENTER>ERA</CENTER><CENTER>FIP</CENTER><CENTER>xFIP</CENTER><CENTER></CENTER>Player<CENTER>ERA</CENTER><CENTER>FIP</CENTER><CENTER>xFIP</CENTER>
Gio Gonzalez2.892.823.38Cliff Lee3.163.133.06
Felix Hernandez3.062.843.20David Price2.563.053.12
Clayton Kershaw2.532.893.25Felix Hernandez3.062.843.20
Justin Verlander2.642.943.31CC Sabathia3.383.333.20
David Price2.563.053.12Zack Greinke3.483.103.22
Zack Greinke3.483.103.22Adam Wainwright3.943.103.23
Adam Wainwright3.943.103.23Max Scherzer3.743.273.23
Cliff Lee3.163.133.06Cole Hamels3.053.303.23
Wade Miley3.333.153.75Chris Sale3.053.273.24
Chris Sale3.053.273.24James Shields3.523.473.24
R.A. Dickey2.733.273.27Clayton Kershaw2.532.893.25
Johnny Cueto2.783.273.65R.A. Dickey2.733.273.27
Max Scherzer3.743.273.23Justin Verlander2.642.943.31
Yu Darvish3.903.293.52Gio Gonzalez2.892.823.38
Cole Hamels3.053.303.23Jeff Samardzija3.813.553.38
CC Sabathia3.383.333.20Joe Blanton4.713.913.39
Matt Cain2.793.403.82A.J. Burnett3.513.523.40
Josh Johnson3.813.403.73Madison Bumgarner3.373.503.45
Jarrod Parker3.473.433.95Yu Darvish3.903.293.52
James Shields3.523.473.24Yovani Gallardo3.663.943.55
Lance Lynn3.783.493.60Lance Lynn3.783.493.60
Madison Bumgarner3.373.503.45Anibal Sanchez3.863.533.60
Jordan Zimmermann2.943.513.78Jon Niese3.403.803.64
Kyle Lohse2.863.513.96Johnny Cueto2.783.273.65
A.J. Burnett3.513.523.40Hiroki Kuroda3.323.863.67
TRAILERS IN FIP<CENTER></CENTER>TRAILERS IN xFIP
Player<CENTER>ERA</CENTER><CENTER>FIP</CENTER><CENTER>xFIP</CENTER><CENTER></CENTER>Player<CENTER>ERA</CENTER><CENTER>FIP</CENTER><CENTER>xFIP</CENTER>
Ervin Santana5.165.634.48Ubaldo Jimenez5.405.064.98
Henderson Alvarez4.855.184.42Aaron Harang3.614.144.95
Ricky Romero5.775.144.86Barry Zito4.154.494.92
Jeremy Guthrie4.765.104.75Ricky Romero5.775.144.86
Ubaldo Jimenez5.405.064.98Jeremy Guthrie4.765.104.75
Derek Holland4.674.754.14Bruce Chen5.074.734.62
Bruce Chen5.074.734.62Ervin Santana5.165.634.48
Jason Vargas3.854.694.45Jason Vargas3.854.694.45
Clay Buchholz4.564.654.43Jeremy Hellickson3.104.604.44
Luke Hochevar5.734.634.32Clay Buchholz4.564.654.43
Clayton Richard3.994.624.16Henderson Alvarez4.855.184.42
Jeremy Hellickson3.104.604.44Luis Mendoza4.234.284.36
Ivan Nova5.024.603.92Matt Moore3.813.934.35
Tommy Hanson4.484.574.24Phil Hughes4.234.564.35
Phil Hughes4.234.564.35Ross Detwiler3.404.044.34
Barry Zito4.154.494.92Wei-Yin Chen4.024.424.34
Gavin Floyd4.294.464.26Kevin Correia4.214.434.34
Kevin Correia4.214.434.34Mike Minor4.124.384.32
Wei-Yin Chen4.024.424.34Luke Hochevar5.734.634.32
Mike Leake4.584.423.82Gavin Floyd4.294.464.26
Mike Minor4.124.384.32Joe Saunders4.074.084.25
Luis Mendoza4.234.284.36Tommy Hanson4.484.574.24
Dan Haren4.334.244.00Josh Beckett4.654.154.22
Bud Norris4.654.234.12James McDonald4.214.214.21
James McDonald4.214.214.21Edinson Volquez4.144.064.20

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Adam Wainwright's ERA-FIP differential, at +0.84 the third highest among ERA qualifiers, is the most glaringly obvious example in the "fluky" category. In his first full season since recovering from Tommy John surgery, the noted curveballer struggled with his command initially before making major strides during the second half of the year. To that end, Wainwright's FIP after the All-Star break was 2.82, almost identical to the 2.86 number he posted during his career year of 2010 (20 wins, 2.42 ERA, 213 strikeouts). There is therefore an excellent chance that his 2012 Rotisserie statistics were an aberration and he's due to improve in them in 2013.

[h=3]Unearned runs[/h]
Hinted at in the previous section, and somewhat related in fact, unearned runs actually have zero impact upon ERA in the literal sense. But unearned runs are the product of shabby defense -- they are the result of errors and passed balls -- and while a pitcher doesn't get charged for many of the runs he allows after such a mistake is made, for evaluation purposes perhaps he should. (To be fair, perhaps he should also be credited for the outs he'd have recorded if not for the error.)

Remember, recording outs is the A-number-one priority for a pitcher, and his skills should be honed enough that he's capable of recording four -- sometimes more -- outs in a single inning when needed. Pitchers who allow themselves to be unraveled easily by errors might possess flawed skills; put them in front of a faulty defense and those mental lapses might become further exposed.

These were the 2012 leaders in unearned runs, the chart including what percentage of the team's unearned runs that pitcher allowed, as well as the number of times opposing batters reached base via an error:

<STYLE type=text/css>.mod-inline td img {margin: 0px;}</STYLE>
PLAYER<CENTER>ERA</CENTER><CENTER>UER</CENTER><CENTER>% of
team's</CENTER>
<CENTER>ROE</CENTER><CENTER></CENTER>PLAYER<CENTER>ERA</CENTER><CENTER>UER</CENTER><CENTER>% of
team's</CENTER>
<CENTER>ROE</CENTER>
Zach McAllister4.241924.1%2Dan Haren4.331016.9%4
Jordan Lyles5.091723.3%15Chris Tillman2.931015.9%4
C.J. Wilson3.831627.1%17Ubaldo Jimenez5.401012.7%4
CC Sabathia3.381427.5%7Henderson Alvarez4.85923.1%7
James Shields3.521423.7%10Adam Wainwright3.94920.0%8
Ross Detwiler3.401325.5%7Aaron Cook5.65917.3%4
Aaron Harang3.611322.0%12Luke Hochevar5.73917.0%5
Clayton Richard3.991318.6%13Joe Saunders4.07916.7%6
Wandy Rodriguez3.761317.6%12Madison Bumgarner3.37916.1%10
Jeremy Guthrie4.761317.3%10Chris Capuano3.72915.3%5
Homer Bailey3.681225.0%10Kevin Correia4.21915.3%7
Jason Marquis5.221221.4%5Garrett Richards4.69915.3%3
Tommy Milone3.741124.4%11Trevor Cahill3.78914.5%4
Phil Hughes4.231121.6%5Derek Holland4.67913.2%7
Wei-Yin Chen4.021117.5%6Scott Feldman5.09913.2%6
Anibal Sanchez3.861116.9%3Carlos Zambrano4.49913.0%6
Justin Verlander2.641114.9%9Brian Duensing5.12912.9%4
Doug Fister3.451114.9%8Jason Berken5.49912.9%1
Rick Porcello4.591114.9%6Lucas Harrell3.76912.3%6
Kevin Millwood4.251023.3%5Justin Masterson4.93911.4%8
Matt Moore3.811016.9%6

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McAllister's unearned runs/reached on error splits are most distressing; be aware that a whopping seven of his 2012 total unearned runs occurred in a single game, last Aug. 6 against the Minnesota Twins. On that day, he surrendered three hits and a walk after his Indians committed a two-out error, a performance far more deserving of criticism than his ERA for the day indicated. A candidate to open the year as the Indians' No. 4 starter, McAllister's performance above further illustrates his mediocre talent, meaning that any gains he experiences as a result of the team's defensive improvements might be negated by his limited skills.

[h=3]Left-on-base percentage[/h]
Sometimes called "Strand Rate," such as in Ron Shandler's Baseball Forecaster, this measures a pitcher's ability to prevent runners he allows to reach base from scoring. Along with BABIP and home run/fly ball percentage, left-on-base percentage is one of the most popular tools fantasy owners use to measure "luck." Typically, a major league-average left-on-base percentage is 70-72 percent, but last season's 72.5 percent league rate was the highest since the turn of the century, and it represented the fifth consecutive year in which the number increased.

Here's where left-on-base percentage comes into play as an ERA influencer: It is as much an indicator of a few lucky -- or unlucky -- bounces when a pitcher had runners on as it is that a pitcher's skills are greater either working out of the set position (typically with men on) or the windup (typically bases empty). Make sure to examine a pitcher's such splits before reading too much into this category.

These were the 2012 leaders and trailers in left-on-base percentage, the chart including each pitcher's OPS differential between when he was pitching with the bases empty and pitching with men on base:

<STYLE type=text/css>.mod-inline td img {margin: 0px;}</STYLE>
Player<CENTER>ERA</CENTER><CENTER>LOB%</CENTER><CENTER>OPS
diff.</CENTER>
<CENTER></CENTER>Player<CENTER>ERA</CENTER><CENTER>LOB%</CENTER><CENTER>OPS
diff.</CENTER>
Jeremy Hellickson3.1082.7%.149Luke Hochevar5.7362.6%-.083
David Price2.5681.1%-.016Justin Masterson4.9366.4%-.210
Chris Sale3.0580.0%.142Ricky Romero5.7767.4%-.053
R.A. Dickey2.7380.0%-.007Jon Lester4.8267.6%-.046
Jordan Zimmermann2.9479.3%.196Tim Lincecum5.1867.8%-.065
Jered Weaver2.8179.2%-.119Adam Wainwright3.9467.8%-.073
Matt Cain2.7979.0%.064Joe Blanton4.7167.9%-.033
Johnny Cueto2.7878.8%-.125Derek Holland4.6767.9%-.170
Jason Vargas3.8578.6%.032Ubaldo Jimenez5.4068.6%-.053
Cliff Lee3.1678.6%-.073Kevin Correia4.2169.0%.037
Matt Harrison3.2978.6%-.089Rick Porcello4.5969.0%-.046
Yovani Gallardo3.6678.4%-.002Ricky Nolasco4.4869.3%.002
Cole Hamels3.0578.1%.014Josh Beckett4.6569.4%-.247
Clayton Kershaw2.5377.9%-.024Clay Buchholz4.5669.7%.034
Hiroki Kuroda3.3277.7%.019Bruce Chen5.0769.7%-.150
Kyle Lohse2.8677.2%.044Ervin Santana5.1669.8%-.162
Bronson Arroyo3.7476.7%-.074C.J. Wilson3.8370.0%.051
Jon Niese3.4076.5%.045Jeremy Guthrie4.7670.0%-.041
Max Scherzer3.7476.5%.014Henderson Alvarez4.8570.1%-.027
Justin Verlander2.6476.4%.042Anibal Sanchez3.8670.2%.025
Jake Peavy3.3776.3%-.077Wandy Rodriguez3.7670.3%-.031
Ryan Vogelsong3.3776.0%-.026Yu Darvish3.9070.5%-.079
Paul Maholm3.6775.7%.019Mike Minor4.1270.6%-.124
Ryan Dempster3.3875.7%.019Lucas Harrell3.7670.8%-.112
Lance Lynn3.7875.6%.073Ross Detwiler3.4070.8%-.121

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Hellickson has now turned in back-to-back seasons of at least an 80 percent left-on-base rate, and a quick glance at his minor league performance in the category reveals a similar such pattern throughout his professional career. One of the reasons he's so successful in that department is his outstanding performance pitching out of the set position; his .225/.271/.352 triple-slash rates allowed with men on base results in a .623 OPS that ranks 14th best out of 144 qualified starting pitchers the past two seasons combined. Couple that with the Rays' outstanding defense and Hellickson looks a lot less "fluky" than people often claim.

[h=3]Bullpen support[/h]
The bullpen behind a starting pitcher can also influence his ERA more than you might think. You'll see a starter's final stat line in the box score, but what you might not see was that he left the game with two outs and the bases loaded, only to have the reliever who replaced him serve up a grand slam on the very next pitch. Those runs are charged to the starter, significantly hurting his ERA, and while they're somewhat deserved -- he did allow those baserunners, after all -- the greater the volume of those allowed, the more misleading the starter's seasonal ERA.

Baseball-Reference.com tallies a statistic it calls "Bequeathed Runners," or BQR, which refers to runners a starter leaves on base when he exits. These were the 2012 leaders and trailers in terms of percentage of bequeathed runners allowed to score, minimum 10 bequeathed runners:

<STYLE type=text/css>.mod-inline td img {margin: 0px;}</STYLE>
Pitcher<CENTER>ERA</CENTER><CENTER>BQR-S</CENTER><CENTER>%</CENTER><CENTER></CENTER>Pitcher<CENTER>ERA</CENTER><CENTER>BQR-S</CENTER><CENTER>%</CENTER>
Justin Germano6.2014-1178.6%Nathan Eovaldi4.3012-00.0%
Everett Teaford4.9911-872.7%Vance Worley4.2010-00.0%
Vin Mazzaro5.7313-969.2%Matt Cain2.7915-16.7%
Roy Oswalt5.8011-763.6%Kevin Correia4.2115-16.7%
Mike Minor4.1219-1263.2%Yu Darvish3.9025-28.0%
Anibal Sanchez3.8621-1361.9%Rick Porcello4.5924-28.3%
Jordan Lyles5.0918-1161.1%David Phelps3.3423-28.7%
Clay Buchholz4.5620-1260.0%Juan Nicasio5.2811-19.1%
Josh Outman8.1915-960.0%Hiroki Kuroda3.3220-210.0%
Dylan Axelrod5.4710-660.0%Bronson Arroyo3.7410-110.0%
Ross Detwiler3.4010-660.0%Armando Galarraga6.7510-110.0%
Chris Capuano3.7222-1359.1%Randy Wells5.3410-110.0%
Zach Britton5.0712-758.3%Ian Kennedy4.0226-311.5%
Aaron Cook5.6512-758.3%Tim Hudson3.6216-212.5%
Chris Sale3.0512-758.3%Josh Beckett4.6522-313.6%
Luke Hochevar5.7320-1155.0%Hisashi Iwakuma3.1614-214.3%
Philip Humber6.4413-753.8%Kris Medlen1.5714-214.3%
Tyson Ross6.5013-753.8%Jeff Samardzija3.8113-215.4%
Brian Duensing5.1228-1553.6%Alex White5.5113-215.4%
Jason Hammel3.4314-750.0%Fernando Abad5.0912-216.7%
Dallas Keuchel5.2714-750.0%Miguel Gonzalez3.2512-216.7%
Randy Wolf5.6514-750.0%Freddy Garcia5.2011-218.2%
Ryan Dempster3.3812-650.0%Zack Greinke3.4811-218.2%
Jeff Francis5.5810-550.0%Johan Santana4.8511-218.2%
Barry Zito4.1523-1147.8%Gavin Floyd4.2916-318.8%
Edwin Jackson4.0316-318.8%
Kyle Lohse2.8616-318.8%

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Two pitchers in particular stand out here. One is Mike Minor, whose 63.2 percent rate of bequeathed runners allowed to score is strangely high for a pitcher on a team that had a 30.3 percent overall rate in the category as well as a bullpen that managed the majors' second-best ERA (2.76) and fourth-best rate of saves plus holds per opportunity (91 percent). That the Braves added further relief help in the form of Jordan Walden suggests that Minor is due greater fortune in this department, and it might neutralize some of the ERA regression he'd likely be due as a result of the correction he'll receive to his .252 BABIP.

The other is Anibal Sanchez, who, after watching only nine of his 62 combined bequeathed runners score in his first six big league seasons, saw 13 of his 21 bequeathed runners cross the plate in Year 7. Granted, Sanchez was rather fortunate in those previous six years, and it's not like his Tigers have one of the majors' best bullpens, but even a slightly better percentage in that department might help him in terms of ERA in 2013.

[h=3]Ballpark factors[/h]
This one's as obvious as they come. A pitcher's ERA is impacted by his home ballpark -- or any ballpark in which he's pitching on a given day -- as a smaller ballpark leads to untimely home runs that inflate the number, while more spacious venues might afford a pitcher more leeway in terms of homers. This is one ERA influencer that fantasy owners have always accounted for; there is still a statistic that helps you do the work more quickly: Adjusted ERA, or ERA+. ERA+ calculates a pitcher's ERA assuming he worked all his games in a neutral ballpark, with anything over 100 considered good, anything beneath it bad.

These were the 2012 leaders and trailers in ERA+:

<STYLE type=text/css>.mod-inline td img {margin: 0px;}</STYLE>
Pitcher<CENTER>ERA</CENTER><CENTER>ERA+</CENTER><CENTER>Home
ERA</CENTER>
<CENTER></CENTER>Pitcher<CENTER>ERA</CENTER><CENTER>ERA+</CENTER><CENTER>Home
ERA</CENTER>
Justin Verlander2.641601.65Tim Lincecum5.18674.15
Johnny Cueto2.781522.79Luke Hochevar5.73715.76
Clayton Kershaw2.531502.05Ubaldo Jimenez5.40723.70
David Price2.561491.81Ervin Santana5.16734.12
Chris Sale3.051422.30Ricky Romero5.77746.42
R.A. Dickey2.731402.59Justin Masterson4.93793.62
Matt Harrison3.291383.55Bruce Chen5.07814.18
Gio Gonzalez2.891372.38Ivan Nova5.02836.08
Kyle Lohse2.861342.33Joe Blanton4.71844.28
Jered Weaver2.811342.44Barry Zito4.15844.00
Jordan Zimmermann2.941343.54Bud Norris4.65861.71
Cole Hamels3.051312.98Dan Haren4.33874.68
Jake Peavy3.371293.10Henderson Alvarez4.85884.82
Cliff Lee3.161273.52Kevin Correia4.21883.64
Hiroki Kuroda3.321262.72James McDonald4.21882.73
Matt Cain2.791252.03Ricky Nolasco4.48884.44
Wade Miley3.331252.99Edinson Volquez4.14882.95
Ryan Dempster3.381243.67Tommy Hanson4.48894.41
CC Sabathia3.381242.69Jon Lester4.82906.31
Jeremy Hellickson3.101233.22Josh Beckett4.65914.45
Felix Hernandez3.061222.78Clayton Richard3.99913.02
Mat Latos3.481223.18Rick Porcello4.59924.71
Ross Detwiler3.401172.59Mike Leake4.58935.54
Yu Darvish3.901163.88Jeremy Guthrie4.76945.31
Homer Bailey3.681155.16Clay Buchholz4.56954.66
Scott Diamond3.541153.40

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Four of the top six performers in terms of ERA and ERA+ were the same, the only difference being Matt Cain (sixth in ERA, 2.79, but 16th in ERA+, 125) and Chris Sale (11th in ERA, 3.05, but fifth in ERA+, 142), and naturally, Cain called a pitching-friendly ballpark and Sale a hitting-friendly venue his home.

Zack Greinke is a pitcher who stands out, as one of the stronger performers in terms of ERA+ (27th, with 114) and an individual who moves to a pitching-friendly ballpark for 2013. He'll also get a decent number of road games in other pitching-friendly venues within the National League West, including San Diego's Petco Park and San Francisco's AT&T Park, meaning that he's a strong bet to improve 2012's 3.48 ERA.

In conclusion, this isn't to say that any of the five influences described in detail above should be expected to radically shift a pitcher's ERA, but rather they can do so. When doing your 2013 draft preparation, therefore, examine what went into an individual's ERA, specifically these five things. Keep in mind that even one earned run can mean one-twentieth (or 0.05) of a run in ERA for a typical starting pitcher; five earned runs can mean as much as a quarter of a run (or 0.25).

That's why, when evaluating pitchers, I place ERA lower on my priority list than categories like WHIP, strikeout and walk rates. To return to the column's opening question, if you asked me, I'd nominate FIP -- not even a traditional Rotisserie stat!
 

hacheman@therx.com
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Sleeper steals options: American League
in.gif


Eric Karabell

The big-league leader in stolen bases last season was Mike Trout with 49, which was basically six weeks for Billy Hamilton. I was at the Futures Game in Kansas City, Mo., last summer, and in the clubhouse prior to the game, Hamilton was being mobbed by reporters. He had already topped 100 steals at the All-Star break. On the other side of the room, Toronto Blue Jays outfield prospect Anthony Gose, himself blessed with crazy speed, was pretty much being ignored, so I asked him about his progress.

Gose had stolen 29 bases by that point at Triple-A Las Vegas, and he ended up with a mere 34, down from 70 the season before, but that hardly means he took steps backward overall. Gose kept drawing walks at a nice rate and cut down on the strikeouts. When the Blue Jays promoted him to the big leagues, he had little trouble stealing bases, and didn't look overmatched while producing a .740 OPS in September and a few days of October.


The issue for Gose, of course, is playing time. He's already tasted the major leagues, and while he doesn't bring the ridiculous stolen base upside of Hamilton, this is a guy who certainly could lead the AL in the category, someone that could flirt with 50 steals if given the chance. Then again, the Blue Jays appear to be contenders, having added Melky Cabrera to play left field and dealing for half the Miami Marlins to shore up other areas. For now, Gose seems headed for Las Vegas, though Rajai Davis could be trade bait, and who knows what physical ailments could hold back others, like Jose Bautista and Emilio Bonifacio. Gose is a tremendous outfielder, and earned nearly the same WAR as Davis, even though Davis played three times as much.
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If we found out today that Gose would play regularly, I'd predict a 40-steal season. It might not be pretty in terms of OBP, but it isn't with Davis or Colby Rasmus, either. If Gose makes the Blue Jays in a bench role, that's 20 steals, more than enough to spend a late pick or a few dollars on in an AL-only format. And that's what we're talking about here, the deeper leagues and the sleepers in this category. In standard leagues, there are enough stolen bases for all, but the likes of Hamilton, Gose and eventually Houston Astros speedster Delino DeShields Jr. (he's 20, but stole 101 bases in 2012) are each capable of major impact, and soon.

On Thursday, we took a look at Adam Eaton, a few of his Arizona Diamondbacks teammates and other sleeper stolen base options from the NL, so now we close the week looking at the AL. It's fair to say there are considerably more high-end steals options, so one might not need the sleepers as much, but let's highlight a few anyway.

Darin Mastroianni, OF, Minnesota Twins: On Thursday afternoon, I watched as Twins center field prospect Aaron Hicks smacked three home runs against three Philadelphia Phillies lefties. Hicks should win the job, and he could provide double-digit home runs and 25-plus steals. Older prospect Joe Benson could also earn the job. Mastroianni was never a big-time prospect, but he stole 21 bases for the Twins in 77 games, and is projected by ESPN Fantasy for 30, which is among the top 20. He'll play enough to matter in the category.

Leonys Martin and Craig Gentry, OF, Texas Rangers: Someone has to win the center field job in Arlington, and each of these fellows is projected for 15 steals. I think Martin is the more talented option, and he hits left-handed, so he should play more. I could see him stealing 20 bases, and let's not forget that if Martin does fail, Julio Borbon, who has had chances before, could finally cash in.

Jimmy Paredes, OF, Houston Astros: Might seem a strange choice, but Paredes, formerly a third baseman, made strides at Triple-A Oklahoma City while learning how to play outfield, delivering 48 extra-base hits and stealing 37 bases. He's still mighty allergic to drawing walks, but these are the Astros, the land of opportunity now, he has major league experience from 2011 and he can run.

Jarrod Dyson, OF, Kansas City Royals: A purveyor of 30 steals for the Royals last year, but currently going 128th among outfielders in ESPN ADP, the diminutive Dyson told reporters recently he's going to bunt more and use his speed to get on base. His 30 steals came with only 330 plate appearances, and it could happen again with Lorenzo Cain and Jeff Francoeur less than safe.

Jeff Kobernus, 2B, Detroit Tigers: Who? Sleeper Kobernus is a Rule 5 pick, meaning the Tigers have to eventually put him on the 25-man roster or offer him back to the Boston Red Sox. Kobernus, 24, isn't special statistically, but he stole 94 bases the past two minor league seasons, so watch his spring progress, because he could matter. The Tigers stole only 59 bases last year, second-fewest in baseball.

Others: And the team that stole the fewest bases was the Baltimore Orioles, but that could change if second baseman Brian Roberts stays healthy. It's been a while since Roberts mattered, but we should all root for him. His backup is Alexi Casilla, who stole 21 bases in 22 chances while healthy for the Twins last year. … Back to the Royals at second base: Many think Johnny Giavotella deserves the job, but the team has an unhealthy infatuation with Chris Getz, and he did steal 20 bases twice in the past four seasons. … Chris Young is a three-time 20-20 guy, and currently undrafted in ESPN standard formats. Also on the Oakland Athletics, second baseman Jemile Weeks is capable of running should he hit, and new shortstop Hiroyuki Nakajima takes walks and could swipe 20 bags. … Cleveland Indians reserve Ezequiel Carrera stole 34 bases last season, eight of them in the majors. He should make the team. … In Tampa Bay, outfielders Brandon Guyer and Sam Fuld are both high percentage base stealers, should they get the chance to play. … Finally, Eduardo Nunez of the New York Yankees, shortstop eligible, has 38 big league steals in fewer than 500 plate appearances. And this is not a healthy team. He's definitely more than a dollar option in AL-only formats, and the case can be made for inclusion in 14-team (and deeper) mixed leagues.

Enjoy the spring training baseball and have a great weekend!
 

hacheman@therx.com
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[h=1]Plenty of steals headed to AL[/h][h=3]Offseason moves shake up stolen base market in AL- and NL-only leagues[/h]
By Keith Lipscomb | ESPN.com

If you played in a league-specific roto format last season, especially if it's a keeper league, you probably noticed something during the offseason that means nothing to those in mixed roto leagues: Many of the top stolen base threats from 2012 switched leagues.

In keeper leagues, it's significant because you lose the rights to those players, but as long as the number of steals options switching between the American and National leagues is relatively even, you know you'll have the ability to make up for the loss of those players with a winning bid in your auction or by simply drafting them, depending on how your league operates.

For NL-only owners this season, though, that's where the problem lies. It was anything but an even swap in terms of the offseason movement of speedsters. For starters, the Houston Astros moved from the NL Central to the AL West, finally evening out the number of teams in each league at 15. Secondly, of the 23 players who stole 30 or more bases in 2012, more than one-third of them -- eight, to be exact -- changed leagues. Of those eight players, six are going from the NL to the AL, an extremely notable occurrence in terms of draft strategy in both AL- and NL-only formats.

[h=3]Players with 30-plus SBs in 2012 switching leagues for 2013[/h]
To the AL To the NL
Michael Bourn (42, 4th) Ben Revere (40, T-5th)
Jose Reyes (40, T-5th) B.J. Upton (31, T-14th)
Shane Victorino (39, T-7th)
Jose Altuve (33, 12th)
Emilio Bonifacio (30, T-17th)
Drew Stubbs (30, T-17th)

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(2012 stolen bases and MLB rank in parentheses)


Simply put, it will be easier to find steals in your AL drafts than in NL drafts this year. Bourn, Reyes and Victorino represent three of the top four base stealers in the NL from 2012, while Revere finished third in the AL last season. And while that alone marks quite a shift in the department from league to league, it's also important to note that only one other player with at least 20 steals in 2012 is switching from the AL to NL (Shin-Soo Choo, who had 21 in 2012).

So how does this impact league-specific drafts in 2013?


[h=3]Supply and demand[/h]
Last year, there were just 1,501 steals in the AL, the fewest in the league since 2008. By contrast, there were 1,728 stolen bases in the NL, the most in either league since 1999. The biggest difference came at the top, as 14 of the 23 players to steal 30-plus bases in 2012 were in the National League. However, as mentioned above, six of those 14 are now in the AL and if you simply look at 2012 steal totals, the American League now has 13 of the 23 players to swipe 30 or more last season. If you take the six 30-steal players coming over to the AL, they would account for more than 14 percent of last year's total.

NL-only impact

It only gets worse for NL owners if you look at the past two seasons. Of the 25 players who have more than 50 stolen bases in that span, 18 of them now reside in the American League, including seven of the top eight. This means that despite the fact the highest projected steals options in the NL don't offer much else in other fantasy categories (Everth Cabrera, Ben Revere and Juan Pierre, to name a few), you'll see them come off the board sooner than they would have last season or go for a higher price in auctions out of sheer need in the category.

Needless to say, the NL owners who draft the likes of Matt Kemp and Carl Crawford, for example, will be hoping for a return to past glory in the department. Meanwhile, those in new keeper leagues will be targeting the biggest potential difference maker from down on the farm, blazing-fast Cincinnati Reds prospect Billy Hamilton. After his 155 steals in the minors last season, he has the ability to carry a fantasy team to the top of the standings in the category all by himself in roto leagues, or win the category every week in head-to-head play. However, it's unknown if or when he'll make it to The Show this season.

AL-only impact

While it may not be as difficult to find elite steals options in AL roto play, that doesn't mean you can wait forever, either. Remember, with more quality options in the category and no one dominant stolen base source according to our projections, you're going to need two or three significant contributors to keep you afloat.

[h=3]Beware of projections[/h]
In our projections, there are 52 players expected to steal at least 20 bases this season, and while 27 of them reside in the National League, remember that projections are essentially educated guesses based on past performance and potential. It's important to have your own opinion of how confident you are in players to achieve those projected figures, as well as taking into account the other statistics those players provide.


While there's no question Dee Gordon (34), Carlos Gomez (33), Andrelton Simmons (21) and Eric Young Jr. (20) have the ability to reach, or even exceed in some cases, their projected totals, I have numerous (and different) concerns about each of them that may preclude me from wanting them on my fantasy team this season. Some of the concerns are related to playing time, while others are performance-based with regard to other categories. That's why I'm not all that high on the National League steals candidates as a whole, and why I think it's a significant concern on draft day when addressing the category. I'd rather not hurt my team in batting average, home runs and RBIs -- and maybe even runs -- just so I can get some stolen base potential. If you are on the same page, that means it's even more imperative that you land the Ryan Braun, Andrew McCutchen, B.J. Upton and Carlos Gonzalez types, who can offer multicategorical value elsewhere while still giving you a nice base in steals.

[h=3]Positional concerns[/h]
• It's not a surprise that the players expected to steal the most bases are outfielders and middle infielders, but of those 52 players projected to reach 20 stolen bases, not one of them is an NL second baseman. In all, there are only five second basemen as it is. The only two NL second basemen projected to steal more than 15 bases are Danny Espinosa and Cliff Pennington.

• Hanley Ramirez has seen his batting average fall off considerably the past two seasons, but he is eligible at third base, still hits for power and has stolen at least 20 bases in each of the past seven seasons. What's more important for this particular column, though, is that he's the only player eligible at a position other than 2B, SS or OF among those 52 projected to swipe 20 bases this season. It's awfully hard to ignore the value of that in any league, let alone the steals-starved National League.

All of this is to say that in the AL you'll need more steals on your roster this season than in recent years if you want to compete in the category. And in the NL, the "sure things" in steals seem to have thinned out considerably, so make sure to get an elite option early and chip away from there, keeping in mind that second base is devoid of any big-time contributors.
 

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Blue Jays report: Bautista, Johnson, Santos

Stephania Bell

Toronto Blue Jays slugger Jose Bautista underwent wrist surgery in September after being shut down last season to repair a torn sheath around his Extensor carpi ulnaris (ECU) tendon. In the 2013 fantasy draft kit injury watch, I discussed the injury and how it typically affects an athlete, in particular, a baseball player who is a power hitter.

One of the more fascinating aspects of talking with athletes about their injuries is hearing how they describe everything from their symptoms to their rehab. It never ceases to amaze how their unique descriptions of what they experience can convey an image beyond any technical terms. Bautista was impressive with regards to the detail in which he explained his entire medical journey, from the anatomy of his injury through surgery and rehab.

For starters, he did not feel pain during his swing that fateful day in July. He said his swing got way behind him and as he tried to slow it down he felt a "pop." But it was when he tried to bring his bat forward again that he felt a sharp pain, which he now thinks was the tendon moving out of position (and which can happen with a sheath tear) and he grabbed his wrist instinctively. Even after his DL stint, Bautista knew he would need to get his wrist surgically repaired in the postseason but he was hoping to finish out the year. The problem was that he kept feeling his tendon move or, as he described it, "lift away" from the forearm bone, a sensation he said was not painful but yet conveyed something was seriously wrong. Ultimately he did not want to risk major injury to the tendon itself and was shut down in August.

The protective sheath is thin, or as Bautista put it, "like carpaccio" whereas the tendon is much thicker, "like a rope." The tendon is the contractile portion of the tissue; it moves the wrist in the desired direction and, for a hitter, helps control the swing. The sheath encases the tendon to protect it from friction against adjacent surfaces but does not control function of the wrist. Consequently, the ultimate concern is protecting the tendon itself. Bautista explained how his surgeon, Dr. Thomas Graham of the Cleveland Clinic, a renowned hand specialist who performs these procedures routinely, reinforced the sheath to help ensure the tendon would remain protected, even if the sheath were to be damaged again. He will be left with a visible bump on the pinky side of his wrist to go along with the small incision scar.


As for how he's doing now, Bautista is happy with his wrist, even if he is still working on his hitting efficiency. "I don't have my full, full motion yet," he said, although when he held up his wrists in extension, I was hard-pressed to see the difference. He expects to gain the remaining motion eventually but says he has enough now to swing his bat freely. He has no discomfort whatsoever -- none of that "lifting away" sensation -- and says he is seeing the ball well, swinging well and hitting is not a problem. "I'm working on timing, pitch recognition, the normal spring training things," Bautista said.

When I mentioned that the wrist injury recently suffered by New York Yankees first baseman Mark Teixeira appears to be similar in nature (the injury was also to his bottom hand on a hard swing, it also involves the ECU tendon and he is being immobilized initially to treat it), Bautista sighed knowingly. He talked about the known frequency of the injury in hockey and golf as a result of the wrist having to counteract the kickback force which travels through a hockey stick and a golf club upon impact. As for baseball, he said, "The injury may be more frequent than we even know."

Bautista sought out others who had been through the surgical procedure -- including teammate Mark DeRosa and Tampa Bay Rays outfielder Sam Fuld -- and learned as much as he could about the process. If anything was clear, it's that Bautista has certainly become well versed on the topic. Now if he returns to form this season, which it appears he certainly has the potential to do, he might just become the go-to guy around the league for how to return from an ECU sheath injury.


• Josh Johnson is off to a solid start this spring and punctuated it with 3 2/3 perfect innings in his outing Friday. I caught Johnson on his way out to practice Saturday and he said his shoulder continues to feel good. "I've been doing exactly the same exercises I did heading into last year," Johnson said. Last year, Johnson told me it was the first time in nearly two years he felt normal post-pitching body soreness as opposed to shoulder discomfort. In that regard, he says nothing has changed. A club source said Johnson has been impressive in all phases since joining the Jays, from bullpens to live pitching and even in terms of leadership among the younger pitchers in camp. Given that perspective and his dominant Friday start, one might say things are even looking up.

• Despite a recent episode of triceps soreness that has him taking it easy this week, Sergio Santos is all smiles when talking about the health of his throwing shoulder. After undergoing labral debridement surgery last July, Santos has been working diligently to ensure his readiness for the start of the 2013 season. In fact, his preparation started before surgery.

Santos was actually hoping to avoid surgery altogether. After injuring his shoulder in April (he developed soreness during a closing effort), Santos came in to the training room to rehab six days a week in an effort to strengthen the shoulder and hopefully bypass an operation.

"We all know that the outcome is sort of uncertain after shoulder surgery," Santos said, "so I was trying to do what I could to avoid it. But in the end, I think all the rehab beforehand helped my recovery after surgery."

From a medical standpoint, the rationale for pursuing a strengthening program as an initial course of treatment in most cases is that it will either help resolve the problem completely or delay the need for surgery. In the worst-case scenario, surgery may be inevitable but the athlete still benefits from having trained some of the muscles that will be important in the recovery process. Santos pointed out that he had regained full motion within a few days after surgery and felt as if he continued to progress smoothly over the next six months. He insists the shoulder has felt "great" so far and while Santos says he is sorting out "a couple little kinks as far as command and location," the spring has otherwise been a normal one.


• Third baseman Brett Lawrie suffered a strained left intercostal muscle (small muscles between the ribs) on Wednesday, forcing him out of the WBC. Lawrie dealt with several injuries last season, including a right-sided oblique strain that kept him out for 30 games. Naturally, there was some initial anxiety around this early spring setback, but Lawrie insisted it was not as severe as last year's ailment. The Jays do not expect it to be more than a two- to three-week absence and are thankful that it appears to be only a mild strain.

• I caught up with shortstop Jose Reyes earlier in the week in Tampa where he was sporting the uniform of his native country, the Dominican Republic, as part of their WBC team. He says the hamstring issues that have been problematic in the past are not bothering him at all this spring. Reyes credits increased hill workouts at home in the Dominican for helping him stay healthier last year (he played 160 games with the Miami Marlins) and he says he stuck with the same routine this year. When I asked him if he was concerned about transitioning to the turf in Toronto, he said he can't worry about that. "You can get hurt anywhere." It sounds like he's speaking from experience. Reyes added that he's excited to help his new team win games and the excitement in the clubhouse about his arrival would suggest the feeling is mutual.

• Finally, the Jays are thrilled to start a fresh new season after being riddled with injuries last year. In addition to the names above, pitcher Brandon Morrow is healthy after missing nearly two months last year due to an oblique injury. Pitcher Kyle Drabek is over at the team's minor league facility and is nearly ready to throw off a mound after undergoing Tommy John surgery -- again -- last June. Drew Hutchison, also post-Tommy John, is on a similar schedule. And Casey Janssen, officially the team's closer, is coming off November surgery to clean up his AC joint. He had a bit of a setback in late February due to discomfort in his shoulder but has since resumed bullpens and is making progress. He still hopes to be ready by Opening Day but he has not yet faced live hitters. Consider that target date fluid.
 

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Jeter recovering; Furcal needs Tommy John

Stephania Bell

Derek Jeter has now played a couple of games at DH and is beginning to get his baseball legs back. During pregame warm-ups, he looked more at ease trotting around the bases (although he was just trotting) and fielding ground balls. The next step will be Wednesday, when Jeter is expected to reprise his role as shortstop. Jeter has still not put the pedal to the floor when running the bases, but that's to be expected.

Despite receiving confirmation from his surgeon that the bone in his ankle had completely healed and he was clear to return to all activities, Jeter still has to adjust to those activities. It's worth pointing out that after the extended period of inactivity -- which includes two months of being off the foot after surgery followed by another two months of being protected -- the ankle develops considerable weakness. In other words, the bone may be back to normal, but everything around it is continuing to strengthen. After the basics of rehab are complete, the only thing left to train is high-level sports activity, and the only way to train is to participate in the activity itself.
So Jeter is back to baseball, but it will be some time before he is really back. Noted foot and ankle surgeon Dr. Robert Anderson, who performed Jeter's surgery, says that beyond the typical six-month recovery (return to activity) for this type of injury, it often takes athletes another 12 weeks to get comfortable performing all their high-level skills. In Jeter's case, this includes rounding the bases sharply and quickly as well as reacting defensively to field balls and to turn and make sharp throws. He is clearly using these early spring games as a means of getting comfortable again with his ankle, which is an integral part of the normal rehab process. Jeter has made it clear that his goal is to be ready for Opening Day, but even if he is playing shortstop then, he may still be a couple of months away from looking like his former self.
[h=3]Furcal set for surgery[/h]St. Louis Cardinals shortstop Rafael Furcal was headed to visit Dr. James Andrews when I visited their spring training. Now Furcal is scheduled to have surgery this week to reconstruct his ulnar collateral ligament, with Andrews expected to perform the surgery. The rehab time for a position player is shorter than for a pitcher (approximately six to nine months) and Furcal should be ready to go by this time next year, although where he will be remains a question (Furcal is a free agent after this season). The most recent comparable example of a shortstop returning following this procedure is the Cincinnati Reds' Zack Cozart, who injured his elbow acutely via a hyperextension mechanism in 2011 and ultimately required surgery. He returned in 2012 and had no issues with the elbow.
 

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Need a SS bargain? Try Simmons

By Brian Gramling | Special to ESPN.com

While many young players tend to get overhyped this time of year, Andrelton Simmons is a budding star who actually appears to be undervalued in fantasy drafts. Because the 23-year-old shortstop is still a rather unknown commodity, ESPN Fantasy has conservatively ranked him 17th among fantasy shortstops, and he's being taken in the 21st round, on average, in ESPN live drafts. But unlike a lot of these higher-ranked shortstops whose ceilings have already been reached, Simmons is still at the ground floor, and he has the natural ability to skyrocket into the top 10 (among shortstops) in his first full season in the majors.

To put Simmons' rookie numbers (194 plate appearances) into proper perspective, his 2.8 WAR in 2012 was better than Jimmy Rollins' and Hanley Ramirez's. His 4.87 Runs Created Per 27 Outs topped Asdrubal Cabrera, Alcides Escobar, Starlin Castro and Elvis Andrus. And his .127 ISO Power came in higher than Erick Aybar, Derek Jeter and Alexei Ramirez. All nine of these players are being picked ahead of Simmons.

The biggest boost that Simmons will enjoy is moving from the No. 8 spot in the Atlanta Braves' order last season to the very top of an even stronger Braves lineup in 2013. This should lead to more patience at the plate as opposed to batting eighth, a spot in which hitters tend to force themselves to swing at bad pitches rather than take a walk and have the No. 9-hitting pitcher end the would-be rally. Batting eighth in a National League lineup is a tough spot to hit in, as these hitters aren't likely to see as many hittable pitches with the light-hitting pitcher standing in the on-deck circle. However, Simmons handled himself as well as any in the No. 8 hole in his rookie season:


[h=4]2012 NL batting leaders, No. 8 spot in lineup[/h]Minimum 100 plate appearances (sorted by batting average).
Player ABs (at No. 8 slot) BA OBP
Jonathan Herrera 129 .349 .396
DJ LeMahieu 172 .314 .344
Andrelton Simmons 106 .311 .359
Darwin Barney 138 .290 .351

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As you can see, the only player above him in both hitting categories was Herrera. As is the case with most Colorado Rockies hitters, Herrera experienced a huge inflation of his stats at hitter haven Coors Field last year, posting a .784 OPS at home and a much more realistic .583 OPS on the road.

Many pundits believe the Braves' lineup is stronger than it was last season, when it finished a mediocre 17th in runs (700) and 21st in OPS (.709). This belief comes in part from the offseason addition of talented outfield siblings Justin Upton and B.J. Upton. Although the exact batting order is unclear at this time, once Brian McCann returns from injury, it will likely be these six players occupying the Nos. 2-7 spots behind Simmons. Check out what these six hitters have done, on average, over the past two seasons:

2B Dan Uggla: 28 HRs, 80 RBIs
CF B.J. Upton: 26 HRs, 80 RBIs
LF Justin Upton: 24 HRs, 78 RBIs
1B Freddie Freeman: 22 HRs, 85 RBIs
C Brian McCann: 22 HRs, 69 RBIs
RF Jason Heyward: 21 HRs, 62 RBIs

That's some serious run production there. And the only one of these half-dozen sluggers who is over the age of 30 is Dan Uggla (32), who just had his worst season as a pro and could very well bounce back in 2013. "Upside" may be an overused term, but this lineup certainly has plenty of it.


The million-dollar question is how Simmons will handle the bat in the leadoff spot? If his performance in the World Baseball Classic offers a hint, the answer is "just fine, thanks." In his first five WBC games, Simmons posted a slash line of .333/.391/.476 in 21 at-bats, all of them out of the leadoff spot. It's a small sample size, but it's definitely a good sign.

Granted, the reasons why we at ESPN have ranked Simmons cautiously are valid. He doesn't draw many walks and doesn't much power to speak of yet from his 6-foot-2, 170-pound frame. He swung at 30.2 percent of first pitches with the Braves in 2012 and didn't swing at only 52.1 percent of the pitches thrown his way in the majors. All in all, he saw only 3.26 pitches per plate appearance last season, which ranked second to last in the league among players with at least 175 plate appearances, ahead of only Salvador Perez (3.24 pitches/PA).

With those negative vibes out of the way, let's focus on what he can do with the bat. Despite his low walk total in 2012, he's still a disciplined hitter, whiffing just once every 7.9 at-bats (21 K's in 166 ABs), a rate that should improve considering how stellar it was in the minors (a strikeout per 12.1 ABs). Also a good sign: The right-handed hitter hit just as well against right-handed pitchers (.333 OBP) as he did against southpaws (.338 OBP). Simmons also hit well with runners on base (.333 BA, .923 OPS), with two outs (.321 BA, .869 OPS) and with the combination of two outs and runners on (.345 BA, .406 OBP, .621 SLG).

Simmons performed much better at home (.656 OPS) than on the road last season (.537 OPS), but that kind of split is not uncommon for a 22-year-old rookie. And although Turner Field ranked 22nd in home runs in ESPN's MLB Park Factors last year, Atlanta's home did place third in doubles. This certainly fits with Simmons' skill set, as he hit 35 doubles (and only one home run) in his most recent full season in the minors (high-A ball in 2011).

The only real concern for Simmons' fantasy worth among his peer group of shortstops is stolen bases, as he attempted only one steal in 49 games last season. But since Fredi Gonzalez took over the managerial duties in 2011, he has allowed Atlanta Braves leadoff hitters to steal 81 bases in 113 attempts. Granted, most of this aggressive baserunning was due to having Michael Bourn, but others who added to the stolen base totals in the leadoff spot were Jordan Schafer, Nate McLouth, Martin Prado and Jose Constanza. In fact, only two other major league teams have attempted more steals from the leadoff spot in the post-Bobby Cox era:

Stolen base attempts by leadoff spot (since 2011)

1. Houston Astros, 120
2. San Diego Padres, 115
3. Atlanta Braves, 113
4. Oakland Athletics, 106

And don't think that the gaudy amount of steal attempts was based on how successful each team was stealing bases, because all four of these clubs were among the bottom half of the league in stolen base percentage from the No. 1 hole. In fact, the Braves actually had the worst SB success rate of the bunch at 72 percent, placing them ahead of just six other major league teams.

If you've ever watched Simmons play, you'll know he's certainly not slow-footed. In his three minor league seasons he swiped 54 bags in 237 games, which averages out to 37 steals per 162 games. Fantasy owners are bound to be disappointed if they expect 37 steals at the major league level in Year 2, but our projection of 21 steals seems quite reachable for him. Only five shortstops are projected with 27 steals or more this season (Everth Cabrera, Elvis Andrus, Dee Gordon, Jose Reyes and Alcides Escobar), and Simmons shouldn't be too far behind his peers in this category.

Lastly, Simmons is already a Gold Glove-caliber shortstop, which may not mean a whole lot in fantasy, but it does help him get in the lineup every day, even during prolonged slumps. This will certainly boost his counting stats, which I expect to look like this upon season's end: 82 runs, 25 steals, 10 homers and 55 RBIs. Tack on a .285 batting average and you're looking at a top-10 fantasy shortstop.
 

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[h=1]Impact of changes to Safeco, Petco[/h][h=3]Will reduced dimensions improve prospects of Mariners, Padres players?[/h]By Tristan H. Cockcroft | ESPN.com

Grand Canyons of baseball no longer?

Petco Park, home of the San Diego Padres, and Safeco Field, home of the Seattle Mariners, have smaller outfield dimensions beginning this year, changes first announced by each team last October. Formerly the most extreme pitchers' parks in either league, the two might experience a narrowing of the park effects gap, if they're not overtaken for top honors altogether.

But there's that key word: might. As park effects are notoriously debatable -- our own Park Factors page says that there were two more pitching-friendly National League ballparks than Petco last year -- it's worth rekindling the discussion in a season of change such as this one.


For a comparison point, within the past 10 seasons, two venues similarly had their outfield dimensions reduced: Comerica Park, home of the Detroit Tigers, following the 2002 season, and Citi Field, home of the New York Mets, before last season.

Quickly addressing the first, keeping in mind that some advanced metrics weren't readily available 10 years ago, there were 32 more runs scored and 139 more home runs hit in the three seasons following Comerica's changes (2003-05) than in the venue's first three years of existence (2000-02); and the Tigers and their opponents scored nearly identical run totals in either three-year subset, meaning strength-of-competition probably wasn't the primary influence. By moving in the fences by as much as 25 feet in certain spots (that specifically to left-center field), Comerica became considerably less pitching-friendly; it has ranked ninth, ninth and 17th in runs scored, and 17th, 14th and 18th in home runs, on our Park Factor page the past three years working backward, after ranking near the bottom in both in 2001-02.

The impact of Citi Field's changes, meanwhile, can be more easily measured thanks to increased statistical availability the past half-decade. One of the most pitching-friendly ballparks in baseball during its first three seasons of existence -- it was arguably the No. 2-such NL park to Petco -- Citi Field saw 24 more home runs hit there in 2012 than in any of the preceding three years.

For a better way to measure these changes, let's break down Citi Field's statistics into three categories, BABIP (batting average on balls in play), home run/fly ball percentage and isolated power (slugging percentage minus batting average), as well as by direction, left field, center field and right field (those defined as each span of 30 degrees working from the left field to right field foul lines).

The following two charts illustrate the impact of Citi Field's changes: The first shows the change in measurements; the second the venue's statistics from 2009-11 combined, under its previous measurements, and in 2012, under its new ones.

<STYLE type=text/css>.mod-inline td img {margin: 0px;}</STYLE>
Citi Field<CENTER>LF
line</CENTER>
<CENTER>LF</CENTER><CENTER>Left
center</CENTER>
<CENTER>CF</CENTER><CENTER>Deep
RCF</CENTER>
<CENTER>RF</CENTER><CENTER>RF
line</CENTER>
Old dimensions335371384408415378330
New dimensions335358385408398375330
Fence height lowered from as high as 16 feet (in left and left center field) to 8 feet all around.

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<STYLE type=text/css>.mod-inline td img {margin: 0px;}</STYLE>
<CENTER>Left Field</CENTER><CENTER>Center Field</CENTER><CENTER>Right Field</CENTER>
Dimensions<CENTER>BABIP</CENTER><CENTER>HR/FB</CENTER><CENTER>ISO</CENTER><CENTER>BABIP</CENTER><CENTER>HR/FB</CENTER><CENTER>ISO</CENTER><CENTER>BABIP</CENTER><CENTER>HR/FB</CENTER><CENTER>ISO</CENTER>
Old (2009-11).3058.8%.195.2972.2%.088.2898.8%.207
New (2012).31213.4%.243.2843.7%.087.26413.2%.217

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Specifically, the impact of that 13-foot decrease in fence distance, and eight feet in height, in left-center field boosted Citi Field much closer to league-average territory. Mets players hit 11 home runs to left-center at Citi in 2012 after hitting only four to that part of the park in 2011, and their home run/fly ball percentage rose, from 2.6 to 8.8. Frankly, if the Mets had more right-handed power hitters in their lineup -- David Wright and Scott Hairston were effectively their only two -- the impact might've been more evident. And that's the point: That seven-homer difference shows how minor park effects can sometimes be, while the Mets' limited righty power exemplifies how park effects have much to do with personnel. Heck, we might not even get a true read on how much Citi Field's new dimensions have affected things for a few more seasons, nor might it matter in 2013, anyway, as Wright and John Buck represent their only righty power bats.

It was the impact upon pitching that stood out: The Mets' team ERA at Citi Field was 4.02 and their home runs allowed per nine innings 1.08 in 2012, whereas their numbers at home in those categories were 3.65 and 0.75 from 2009-11. Mets pitchers did manage a higher quality-start rate there in 2012 (67.9 percent) than from 2009-11 (57.2 percent), but their opponents did not, managing a 43.2 percent rate in 2012, down from 46.9 percent the three years before it. In short, the prospects of matchups seeking dropped as a result of Citi Field's shrunken dimensions, albeit by a small amount. And with R.A. Dickey now in Toronto, one might assume the Mets' quality-start rate to exhibit a similar decline in 2013. Remember: Personnel.

Now, let's apply those lessons to Petco and Safeco.

[h=3]Petco Park's changes[/h]
The problem with evaluating the changes at Petco is similar to that of Citi Field: The Padres are comparably weak in terms of personnel likely to exploit them. Though the fences moved in slightly in left-center field, the most substantial tweak is to the area in right and right-center field, where the fences will both be brought in 11 feet and lowered from 11 to eight feet. These are the modifications:

<STYLE type=text/css>.mod-inline td img {margin: 0px;}</STYLE>
Petco Park<CENTER>LF
line</CENTER>
<CENTER>Left
center</CENTER>
<CENTER>Deep
LCF</CENTER>
<CENTER>CF</CENTER><CENTER>Right
center</CENTER>
<CENTER>RF</CENTER><CENTER>RF
line</CENTER>
Old dimensions336383402396402360322
New dimensions336383390396391349322
Fence height in right center field was also lowered from 10 to 8 feet.

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Even with those tweaks, Petco remains an extremely spacious venue, simply less cavernous. With the exception of the measurement to straightaway center field, every outfield dimension rates above the major league average -- you can see those in the charts further down -- and there isn't an ideal comparable among current major league parks. Marlins Park, home of the Miami Marlins, and Turner Field, home of the Atlanta Braves, are the two closest, and both of those venues rated among the 10 worst for home runs on our 2012 Park Factors page.

Chase Headley, a switch-hitter who hit 20 of his 31 home runs from the left side of the plate, is the most obvious individual Padre under fantasy owners' microscopes. Headley, however, hit 21 of those 31 total homers down the left- or right-field lines -- specifically the spans of approximately 18 degrees from either foul line -- and nine of his 13 at Petco down either line, showing more of a pull- than alley-power tendency. He also had a 20.5 home run/fly ball percentage, representing an increase of nearly 15 percent upon his 2009-11 combined number (5.9 percent), meaning some naturally regression in homers was likely anyway.

Petco's adjustments might alleviate slightly that regression, and perhaps Headley will adapt his game with the knowledge that the alley fences are shorter. Still, it's foolish to assume that smaller Petco dimensions might inspire a better 2013 than 2012; rather, they marginally improve his prospects at a repeat.

Meanwhile, Padres with more modest 2012 home run/fly ball percentages could pick up a little in the power department -- think 1-3 home runs apiece -- including Yonder Alonso (4.2 in home games), Cameron Maybin (5.0) and Will Venable (3.9). The most noticeable statistical change, however, will probably be upon pitchers -- just as discussed earlier with Citi Field in 2012 -- specifically those who relied more upon matchups than talent to succeed.

Padres starters Clayton Richard and Edinson Volquez, for example, had road ERAs more than a run and a half higher than at Petco, neither classifying as elite, top-of-the-staff types. Both, fortunately, are ground-ball types, meaning neither should be devoid of matchups appeal, but their number of useful matchups should nevertheless decline slightly in 2013. As for visitors to Petco, the shrunken outfield dimensions should make NL-only owners think twice about blindly streaming anyone scheduled there, especially with lesser-skilled, fly-ball pitchers like Travis Wood, Aaron Harang and Mike Fiers.

[h=3]Safeco Field's changes[/h]
The Mariners, meanwhile, aren't that much more stocked with personnel to exploit Safeco's changes than the Padres, with one key difference: Safeco's adjustments appear almost as if they were specifically designed for Jesus Montero. Take a look at the modifications:

<STYLE type=text/css>.mod-inline td img {margin: 0px;}</STYLE>
Safeco Field<CENTER>LF
line</CENTER>
<CENTER>Left
center</CENTER>
<CENTER>Deepest
point</CENTER>
<CENTER>Dead
center</CENTER>
<CENTER>Right
center</CENTER>
<CENTER>RF
line</CENTER>
Old dimensions331390409405385326
New dimensions331378405401381326
Fence height in left field was also lowered from 17 to 8 feet.

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</TBODY>


With the exception of the right center field measurement, Safeco's alterations draw it into eerily similar comparisons with U.S. Cellular Field, home of the Chicago White Sox, and Great American Ball Park, home of the Cincinnati Reds, two of the most homer-friendly ballparks in all of baseball. While that provides no promise of converting Safeco into a homer heaven -- personnel, climate, wind and playing surface also contribute -- there's a very real possibility that Safeco is the one of the two that will exhibit the larger statistical shift.

Returning to Montero, he has flashed outstanding power to left-center, center and right-center fields during his brief career, and among Mariners players, his 100 balls in play to left-center field led the team in 2012. Considering his modest 9.9 home run/fly ball percentage -- that number was only 7.8 at Safeco -- Montero might experience the greatest advantage as a result of the new dimensions. Certainly, however, Jason Bay, Kendrys Morales, Michael Morse, Justin Smoak and Casper Wells should also benefit. Again, we might be talking only 1-3 homers apiece.

Safeco's smaller dimensions might have a more adverse impact upon pitching than Petco's for another key reason: The Mariners are the one team of the two forced to face designated hitters rather than pitchers most nights -- meaning a ninth batter with legitimate ability to clear those closer fences. Perhaps this was one reason the team was willing to trade Jason Vargas; his 44.6 percent fly-ball rate the past three seasons combined would've put him at risk for increased ERA/WHIP. Instead, starter hopefuls Blake Beavan (45.6 percent fly-ball rate in 2012) and Hector Noesi (46.8 percent) will be the ones at greater risk for regression.

Safeco's visitors might also suffer, especially with the team adding Raul Ibanez, Morales and Morse this winter. Consider that visiting pitchers managed a 3.06 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 55 quality starts and 27 saves in 81 games last season, numbers that made it the most favorable pitching venue. Tread much more carefully with your visiting starters, especially the fly-ballers: Vargas, Derek Holland and Tommy Milone, to name three, face a greater challenge in Safeco assignments.

[h=3]Park effects for all 30 venues[/h]
Since we're on the topic of ballpark effects, why not re-examine the leanings of all 30 current venues? The charts below, as in the ones above, break down ballpark statistics into three categories -- BABIP, home run/fly ball percentage and isolated power, as well as by direction, left field, center field and right field.

Ballpark effects overall can also be seen on our Park Factors page, which breaks down the numbers in six categories -- runs scored, home runs, hits, doubles, triples and walks -- by season.

[h=3]Left field[/h]
Ballpark measurements are in the four columns to the right: "dist." is the distance to the outfield fence, "hgt." the height of that fence. Left field measurements are from home plate to foul pole.

<STYLE type=text/css>.mod-inline td img {margin: 0px;}</STYLE>
Ballpark<CENTER>Team</CENTER><CENTER>BABIP</CENTER><CENTER>HR/
FB%</CENTER>
<CENTER>ISO</CENTER><CENTER>LF
dist.</CENTER>
<CENTER>LF
hgt.</CENTER>
<CENTER>LCF
dist.</CENTER>
<CENTER>LCF
hgt.</CENTER>
Fenway ParkBos.35016.4.3073103733537
Marlins Park +Mia.32912.1.2253441038610
Minute Maid ParkHou.31917.8.2793151936225
Coors FieldCol.31816.3.26434783908
Wrigley FieldChC.31618.4.2813551536811.5
Turner FieldAtl.31513.0.21833583808
Rangers BallparkTex.31416.1.257332143808
Chase FieldAri.31318.7.2973307.53767.5
Comerica ParkDet.31313.6.23634573709
Citi Field *NYM.31213.4.24333583858
Miller ParkMil.31017.5.25834483708
Target FieldMin.30914.6.22733983778
Great American Ball ParkCin.30817.7.2623281237912
Camden YardsBal.30717.4.26133373647
Kauffman StadiumKC.30712.7.22833083878
PNC ParkPit.3058.7.16232583898
U.S. Cellular FieldCWS.30518.7.27833083778
LEAGUE AVERAGE.30514.3.23733210.537510.5
AT&T ParkSF.30412.1.20133963646
Busch StadiumStL.30312.9.21233683758
Progressive FieldCle.3037.5.1783251937019
Rogers CentreTor.30022.1.3353281037510
Citizens Bank ParkPhi.29713.5.2243291036011
Petco ParkSD.29213.4.21833683838
Yankee StadiumNYY.29012.2.21431883998
Dodger StadiumLAD.28911.2.18233043758
Nationals ParkWsh.28914.6.23333683778
O.co ColiseumOak.28611.4.202330836215
Angel StadiumLAA.28511.8.19833083878
Tropicana FieldTB.28514.2.2413151137011
Safeco FieldSea.2748.9.181331173908

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* 2012 statistics; outfield dimensions changed between the 2011-12 seasons. + 2012 statistics; opened in 2012.


The Fenway Park numbers are the most curious of the bunch, albeit unsurprising. As the Green Monster stands closer to home plate than any other left-field fence, and at a major league-high 37 feet, an increased number of doubles and triples will naturally inflate BABIP and isolated power to that part of the park. This is the reason fantasy owners might find offseason acquisitions Jonny Gomes and Mike Napoli, and to a lesser extent David Ross, particularly attractive; all three players managed better than a 40 percent fly-ball rate in 2012.

Minute Maid Park is the other venue that warrants attention: For most of its first decade of existence it had a hitter-friendly reputation, but as the Houston Astros' roster declined in talent in the past several years, it became more apparent that it was a good park for right-handed power … but neutral to pitching-friendly everywhere else. This is good news for winter acquisition Chris Carter, who has hit 15 of his 19 career home runs to left field.

[h=3]Center field[/h]
Ballpark measurements are in the four columns to the right: "dist." is the distance to the outfield fence, "hgt." the height of that fence.

<STYLE type=text/css>.mod-inline td img {margin: 0px;}</STYLE>
Ballpark<CENTER>Team</CENTER><CENTER>BABIP</CENTER><CENTER>HR/FB%</CENTER><CENTER>ISO</CENTER><CENTER>CF dist.</CENTER><CENTER>CF hgt.</CENTER>
Coors FieldCol.3347.4.1504158
Comerica ParkDet.3281.7.0874208
Chase FieldAri.3264.3.13140725
Fenway ParkBos.3253.5.11442017
Kauffman StadiumKC.3243.9.1044108
Nationals ParkWsh.3184.4.0964028
Miller ParkMil.3128.5.1694008
Yankee StadiumNYY.3113.6.0954088
Great American Ball ParkCin.3107.3.1274048
Busch StadiumStL.3094.7.0934008
Rogers CentreTor.3095.1.12840010
Target FieldMin.3092.3.0734048
Rangers BallparkTex.3056.5.1304008
LEAGUE AVERAGE.3054.6.1084069.5
Progressive FieldCle.3045.0.1104059
Turner FieldAtl.3036.1.1194008
U.S. Cellular FieldCWS.3025.7.1124008
Minute Maid ParkHou.3011.2.06843510
Marlins Park +Mia.3011.8.08241816
Camden YardsBal.2986.0.1114107
Dodger StadiumLAD.2986.3.1154008
Petco ParkSD.2984.6.1073968
Safeco FieldSea.2982.8.0664058
AT&T ParkSF.2962.6.07839910.5
Wrigley FieldChC.2954.8.10240011.5
Citizens Bank ParkPhi.2934.3.1034016
O.co ColiseumOak.2934.4.1054008
Angel StadiumLAA.2907.1.1354008
Tropicana FieldTB.2902.7.0844049
Citi Field *NYM.2843.7.0874088
PNC ParkPit.2786.3.14139911

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* 2012 statistics; outfield dimensions changed between the 2011-12 seasons. + 2012 statistics; opened in 2012.


Here is where Marlins Park, which opened in 2012, shows its true pitching-friendly leaning. Thanks to Giancarlo Stanton's immense raw power -- he clubbed 16 of the team's 55 homers at home and 11 of their 37 to left and left-center field there -- the venue's left-field statistics looked somewhat favorable but their stats to center and right field ranked among the game's worst. Only three ballparks have a deeper measurement to straightaway center field and two have a higher fence there; this might be a ballpark in need of a future Petco/Safeco adjustment of its own.

Take note of those higher BABIPs, which correlate with the teams with the deepest center field measurements. The larger the outfield territory, especially from power alley to power alley, the greater the probability of doubles and triples dunking in; that's why Coors Field has the highest BABIP to center field (.334) and fifth-largest measurement to that spot (415).

[h=3]Right field[/h]
Ballpark measurements are in the four columns to the right: "dist." is the distance to the outfield fence, "hgt." the height of that fence. Right field measurements are from home plate to foul pole.

<STYLE type=text/css>.mod-inline td img {margin: 0px;}</STYLE>
Ballpark<CENTER>Team</CENTER><CENTER>BABIP</CENTER><CENTER>HR/
FB%</CENTER>
<CENTER>ISO</CENTER><CENTER>RF
dist.</CENTER>
<CENTER>RF
hgt.</CENTER>
<CENTER>RCF
dist.</CENTER>
<CENTER>RCF
hgt.</CENTER>
Coors FieldCol.32716.2.275350143758
Kauffman StadiumKC.3027.7.18633083878
Target FieldMin.2959.2.2063282336723
Rangers BallparkTex.29314.0.25432583778
Wrigley FieldChC.2926.8.1813531536811.5
Miller ParkMil.28912.4.25034563748
Nationals ParkWsh.28910.7.216335837012
PNC ParkPit.28910.0.2033202537525
Camden YardsBal.28712.7.255318253737
Dodger StadiumLAD.2867.8.17533043758
U.S. Cellular FieldCWS.28610.7.20533583728
Comerica ParkDet.28512.1.222330838812
Busch StadiumStL.2849.7.18233583758
Chase FieldAri.28412.3.2333357.53767.5
Yankee StadiumNYY.28424.6.35131483858
Angel StadiumLAA.2837.9.1703301837018
LEAGUE AVERAGE.28211.3.2143281137811
O.co ColiseumOak.2768.1.170330836215
Progressive FieldCle.27616.8.23832593759
Great American Ball ParkCin.27513.3.24132583708
Citizens Bank ParkPhi.27414.3.2373301335713
Turner FieldAtl.27411.2.19333083908
AT&T ParkSF.2726.4.1763092142121
Rogers CentreTor.27210.8.2273281037510
Fenway ParkBos.27010.5.19230233805
Minute Maid ParkHou.2699.3.186326737310
Marlins Park +Mia.2667.9.1713351039210
Citi Field *NYM.26413.2.21733083758
Petco ParkSD.2636.0.147322840210
Safeco FieldSea.26211.3.18832683858
Tropicana FieldTB.25412.6.2323221137011

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* 2012 statistics; outfield dimensions changed between the 2011-12 seasons. + 2012 statistics; opened in 2012.


The first thing you'll notice about right-field statistics is how much lower they are, on average, than those in left. There's a simple explanation: There are more right-handed batters in baseball -- 56 percent of the total plate appearances in 2012 were accrued by righties -- whose numbers on batted balls to right field will understandably lower those averages. Consider: Left-handed hitters had a 30.6 home run/fly ball percentage to right field last season, while right-handed hitters had a 28.5 mark to left. But righties had a 3.5 percentage to right field and lefties a 2.8 mark to left -- and the righties' sample was 2,871 plate appearances larger than the lefties' when going to the opposite field.

In other words, directional ballpark numbers shouldn't be compared to one another; they should be compared to their own league-average split.

Yankee Stadium, predictably, has an absurd power leaning to right field, but it's the extent to which that's true that might surprise you. There were 146 home runs hit to right in 81 games there in 2012 -- 98 by the New York Yankees, 48 their opponents -- which is good news for offseason acquisition Travis Hafner and also a plus for 2012 midseason pickup Ichiro Suzuki.

Look at the differential between Rangers Ballpark and Angel Stadium, however, most relevant pertaining to Josh Hamilton, who moved from the Texas Rangers to the Los Angeles Angels during the winter. Granted, analysis by Home Run Tracker founder Greg Rybarczyk showed that all but one of Hamilton's 2012 homers at Rangers Ballpark would've gone out of Angel Stadium, but who's to say that Hamilton will hit his fly balls to those same, precise spots in 2013? Climate differences could have contributed to those wide statistical splits between venues, and it's a primary reason Hamilton might lose a couple of the career-high 43 homers he hit last season as a result of the move.

In summary, remember personnel, as well as the fact that ballpark factors usually mean more like 1-3 home runs than 10-plus per player. You need the right players in order to exploit a venue's measurements, and you should never make rash decisions simply as a result of ballpark effects -- consider them more "tiebreaker" factors than primary decision-makers.

But as we tend to learn new things about each ballpark every year, perhaps we'll see, a year from now, whether things really changed that much in San Diego or Seattle.
 

hacheman@therx.com
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Bullpens: Top 10 'non-save' RP options
in.gif


Eric Karabell

The weekend announcement from New York Yankees closer Mariano Rivera that this would be his final big league season doesn't change anything from a fantasy baseball perspective. The beloved Rivera remains a trusted fantasy option, and is appropriately being selected sixth among current relief pitchers in ESPN average live drafts, and in the top 100 overall. It won't be me choosing a closer that early, but I also don't see much risk. Not only is Rivera's body of work outstanding, but he injured his knee early enough last season that he's now fully recovered, with the pending Opening Day not even in question. Rivera tossed a perfect inning Saturday, striking out two, and while it's rare that we project a 43-year-old to produce at such a high level again and again and again, in his case, it fits.
Of course, for those in dynasty formats, this news only confirms that Rivera will not be helping fantasy owners in 2014, so while one should always aim to win now, it's reasonable to seek out others in longer-term formats. One of the relievers likely to come in greater demand is Yankees setup man David Robertson, the presumed next in line. It's tough to argue the case against Robertson, an elite strikeout reliever certainly capable of moving his act to the ninth inning when given the chance. This transition might have occurred last May when Rivera was hurt, but Robertson was sputtering a bit with health and performance, and the experienced Rafael Soriano got the job done in the role.

<OFFER>Still, Robertson boasts an exalted and secure place among my top 10 non-save relief pitchers for 2013. I participate in a league in which holds are featured, and know of other leagues that use the "saves plus holds" category. For the record, it's often tougher to predict holds leaders than saves, but it's best to invest in skills over roles, and we want strikeout relievers that pile on the innings and, obviously, keep their ERA and WHIP in pristine shape. For the record, the holds leaders in 2012 were, and good luck guessing these names in advance, Joel Peralta, Vinnie Pestano, Mitchell Boggs (the NL leader!), Jason Grilli, Francisco Rodriguez (seeking work), Sean Burnett, Joaquin Benoit, Edward Mujica, Robertson and Eric O'Flaherty. Robertson, Benoit and O'Flaherty were the only repeat names from 2011.</OFFER>

Here's my top 10 list of relief pitchers I expect to save fewer than 10 games to count on for fantasy in 2013, and it can be construed in myriad ways. It's not always about saves, and I wasn't thinking at all about wins or holds. Some of these pitchers will get saves (in the case of the top guy, perhaps quite a few of 'em). Some will not. Some big names are missing as well, and I'm excluding relief-eligibles such as Aroldis Chapman (though I do expect far more than 10 saves from him) and Kris Medlen. In the later rounds of some drafts, depending on various factors, I admit I'll be more likely to select a potentially middling pitcher with the chance for saves, such as former Houston Astros Mark Melancon (Pirates), Brandon Lyon (Mets) or anyone actually on the current Astros, like Jose Veras. In others, I might search for safe innings that don't count against a start limit. This list takes into account the upside of great innings (strikeouts!) with a reasonable chance of saves in certain cases.

1. Kenley Jansen, Los Angeles Dodgers: In his three big league seasons, he has struck out 14.6 hitters per nine innings. That's outrageous. That said, I still think Brandon League is the Dodger in line for 30-plus saves. Jansen is the guy to get for strikeouts, ERA, WHIP … pretty much everything but saves.

2. David Robertson, New York Yankees: Has been dominant in his own right the past two seasons, though like Jansen, he might not even get to 65 innings. And no, I don't expect Rivera to cede more than 10 ninth-inning save chances.

3. David Hernandez, Arizona Diamondbacks: Unheralded, but able to stay healthier and miss more bats than closer J.J. Putz. It's unlikely Hernandez will get saves, but 100 strikeouts are possible.

4. Trevor Rosenthal, St. Louis Cardinals: Surprise! This right-hander brings nasty stuff to the bullpen, where he could supplant Boggs as the setup man to Jason Motte. He's also capable of 80-plus relief innings. Draft the skills and see what happens.

5. Tyler Clippard, Washington Nationals: A case can be made that Drew Storen, likewise a former closer for this team, is next in line for Soriano's saves, but Clippard boasts an uninterrupted three-year run of success and bigger K rates. And I don't think Soriano will cede saves anyway.

6. Kelvin Herrera, Kansas City Royals: This is a really nice bullpen, with multiple options for fantasy owners to like. I chose Herrera over Tim Collins and Aaron Crow because he's still ascending and seems safer in ERA and WHIP.

7. Sean Doolittle, Oakland Athletics: The former first baseman burst on the scene with little minor league pitching experience to fan 11.4 hitters per nine innings. Give him 30 more relief innings, which is reasonable, and he's flirting with the relief leaders in strikeouts. This lefty also destroyed right-handed hitters, and we can't argue with his pitcher-friendly home ballpark, either.

8. Luke Gregerson, San Diego Padres: When in doubt, choose a Padres middleman. Gregerson should be next in line for when Huston Street is hurt -- it's an annual thing -- or traded, but in four big league seasons, he has averaged 70 innings, 72 strikeouts and a 1.11 WHIP. Brad Brach is also looking safe for the next few seasons.

9. Jake McGee, Tampa Bay Rays: Gets the nod over O'Flaherty, who has done this longer, for the strikeouts. The lefty McGee was dominant in 2012, fanning 73 in 55 1/3 innings, and posting a 0.79 WHIP. He held right-handed hitters to a .098 batting average. Perhaps he's closing in 2014.

10. Koji Uehara and Alfredo Aceves, Boston Red Sox: Perhaps these are odd selections, but Uehara is a WHIP monster, posting a 0.92 mark in his four-year career. He rarely walks opposing hitters. Durability is an issue, but this spring he has faced 15 hitters in five appearances, retiring them all. In 2011 in the bigs, Uehara had 85 strikeouts (nine walks) and a 0.72 WHIP in 65 innings. Wow! As for the wild and crazy Aceves, remember that he tossed 93 relief innings in his 51 appearances in 2011 (four starts), a true long man, and he won nine games in that role. He's not a big strikeout guy, but with Boston's deep bullpen, watch him throw many innings again. Aceves was not nearly as bad as his 2012 numbers might portray. I also like Daniel Bard, who was excellent setting up in 2010 and 2011, to bounce back. As for Andrew Bailey -- well, at least he's healthy today, but I also see him earning double-digit saves.

Also: Watch Carter Capps in the Mariners' bullpen flirt with 100 strikeouts if he can pitch 70 innings. The guy throws hard. … I doubt Tigers manager Jim Leyland lets Brayan Villarreal see ninth-inning work, but the Tigers right-hander was certainly effective in 2012. … Honestly, what scares me about Tampa Bay's Peralta and Detroit's Benoit are the home runs. Benoit allowed 14 of them. It means higher ERAs in relation to WHIP, but they do get strikeouts. … Overall, Baltimore's bullpen is not a great investment in 2013 -- I don't see many of the guys repeating their 2012 success -- but submariner Darren O'Day should be an exception. … Atlanta's O'Flaherty saw a major dip in K rate last season, but he has 60 holds since 2011 began. Teammate Jonny Venters, a stalwart in 2010 and 2011, is a reminder why fantasy owners shouldn't count on top relievers pitching at a high level every season. … Other safe setup men include Mike Adams, Ryan Cook, Sean Marshall and Ronald Belisario. … Pestano, Melancon as well as Los Angeles Angels Ernesto Frieri and Ryan Madson didn't make the list because I expect each to save double-digit games this season.
 

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Common Fantasy Sense

By Matthew Berry | ESPN.com

Thomas Paine does not have a good publicist. Of course, come June 8, he'll have been dead for 204 years, so there hasn't been a huge rush to rectify the problem, but still, the fact remains. He rarely gets invited to premieres anymore, he's been passed over for "Dancing With the Stars" 16 straight seasons and kids today have no idea he was the guy who wrote "These are the times that try men's souls."

That quote was the "Gangnam Style" of its day, included in "The American Crisis," a pamphlet that Paine wrote to inspire the Army. Get this: That document was so popular in its day that, according to USHistory.org, it was read by or read to more people than today watch the Super Bowl (as a percentage of the population in 1776). That, kids, is what we call a hit pamphlet.


And it wasn't his first. No, before the celebrity girlfriends, the buggy whip endorsement deals or his ill-fated line of musket-flavored hard candy, Thomas Paine burst onto the scene with "Common Sense," which was a strong defense of independence from England. Now, this is family-friendly sports website, so we try not to comment on politically-charged issues, but I don't care. I'll say it. I support our independence from England. Preach on, Thomas Paine! I got your back!

Written in plain, everyday English rather than bogged down in flowery language, "Common Sense" laid out the entire case for revolution in just more than 10,000 words. As USHistory.org states, Paine "communicated the ideas of the Revolution to common farmers as easily as to intellectuals, creating prose that stirred the hearts of the fledgling United States."

Well, you know who has two thumbs and likes to stir a few hearts? Seriously, I'm asking. Do you know anyone? I'd like to get them to write this. Failing that, it seems like Paine's ideas are as classic as his "Q" rating is down, so it's a good time to bring them back. No Manifesto this season, but rather a common sense approach to fantasy baseball drafts. Something that is easy to understand by both common farmers and intellectuals, which is my target demo.


So here you go. With a shout out and thanks to Will Cohen of ESPN Stats & Information, this is the 2013 heart-stopping, house-rocking, earth-quaking, booty-shaking, Bruce-taking, common sense-making …
[h=3]DRAFT. DAY. <DEL>MANIFES</DEL> PAMPHLET![/h]
1. Three is a magic number. Three plus 77, that is. In an ESPN standard 10-team 5x5 mixed league, the average winning team gets about 80 points. Has for years. Get close to 80, you're in the mix. Now, the key here is there's lots of different ways to get to 80. Look at this handy example I like to use.

8+8+8+8+8+8+8+8+8+8 = 80
10+10+10+10+10+6+6+6+6+6 = 80
8+5+7+9+8+8+10+9+6+10=80
9+7+9+9+9+1+8+9+10+9=80

See? It doesn't matter how you get there. Lots of different ways, so don't let anyone tell you "This is the way." There's lots of ways.

2. Third is first. A super-easy way to get to 80 is to just shoot for third in every category. You get third place in a category, you get eight points. There are 10 categories. 80 points. Magic. You don't need to win home runs or dominate steals. You don't need to crush saves or rock strikeouts. You just need one more of each than the guy in fourth place ends up with.


3. An average average is no longer average. We've discussed this at length on the podcast, but to drive the point home, you have to recalibrate what you think of as a good hitter. To wit, which seems like the kind of word Thomas Paine would use: As recently as 2009, there were 42 batters who hit .300 or better. Over the past three seasons, there have been 25 batters, on average, per season to hit .300 (26 of them in 2012).

In fact, from 2006 to 2009, the league batted .266. But in the past three seasons, the league average has dropped 10 points to .256. Last year's league batting average was the lowest since 1989. In other words, a .275 hitter is better than you think, a .250 hitter doesn't hurt as much as you think and the guys who hit .300 (and get tons of at-bats) are pretty valuable.


4. Lower average means … less power? Yeah, it's not swinging for the fences that is bringing average down. Fewer hits does also mean fewer home runs. Check it out: [h=3]Home run hitters[/h]Number of hitters to reach home run benchmarks in average season
Benchmark 2006-2009 2010-2012
20 home runs 89.0 74.7
30 home runs 29.5 23.0
40 home runs 5.8 3.3

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To put it another way, home run production over the past three seasons is 92.8 percent of what it was in the previous four. When drafting, go power early, there's less of it than you might think.

5. Head to the corner, young man (and young lady). Looking for that power and average combo? You're gonna get it from your corner men. Nate Ravitz and I were discussing this over email with friend-of-the-podcast Jason Collette. In an ESPN standard league, you're looking at 30 starters for your corner infield spots. Looking at our projections for corner infield, 28 players are projected for 25 home runs or more, or 93 percent. Fourteen of them, or 46 percent, are projected to hit 25 home runs and bat at least .280. First base, especially, is deep this year, even having lost Miguel Cabrera. No issue taking one of the studs in the first round, but if you want to wait a bit on a position, this is one of them.

6. Meanwhile, in the outfield … There are 50 starting outfielders in an ESPN standard league. Only 25 of them are projected to hit at least 25 home runs, or 50 percent. And we project just 10 to hit .280 with 25 or more home runs. Good outfielders are scarcer than you think, so don't hesitate to spend a high draft pick on them, and be prepared to take on some negative batting average at the position.

7. When in doubt, take power over speed. We talked about the power outage, but just the opposite is happening on the basepaths. In the past two years, teams have started stealing bases like we haven't seen since the late '90s.
[h=3]Base stealers[/h]Number of hitters to reach stolen base benchmarks in average season
Benchmark 2006-2009 2010-2012
20 stolen bases 39.0 49.0
30 stolen bases 18.0 24.5
40 stolen bases 8.6 7.0

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In addition, the speed is more evenly distributed. The number of 40-steal guys has gone down the past two years, but there have been, on average, 10 more 20-steal guys in the past three seasons than there were in the previous four. So there's more steals guys and they are getting better at it. Last year, base stealers converted on 74.0 percent of their attempts, the second highest recorded rate in MLB history (caught stealing became an official stat in both leagues in 1951). Ideally, you're getting guys who contribute across the board in all categories, but when deciding between power or speed early on, I'm going power. And average.

8. Catcher is deep this year. Nine catchers hit more than 20 home runs last year. And that doesn't include Victor Martinez or Salvador Perez, who were injured all (or part) of last year but who should both have very good years. Guys like Jonathan Lucroy and A.J. Pierzynski are going outside the top 10. Consider also guys like Yasmani Grandal, who will be on your waiver wire about 40 games into the season, and while I get that Buster Posey is all that and a Pop Tart, I'm gonna be the last guy in my league to grab a catcher.

9. Deep pitching does not mean all pitching is created equal. You may look at rankings and think that you can wait on pitching because there are so many good pitchers. And it's true, there are lots of good pitchers. Last season, MLB starting pitchers averaged 7.14 strikeouts per nine innings, by far the best rate in MLB history. And in the past three years, the average starting pitcher has a 4.14 ERA. In the four preceding seasons, the league-average starter had a 4.55 ERA.


Another way to put it, in 2006, just 10 starters qualified for the ERA title with a mark of 3.50 or less. Last year, 28 pitchers did so. [h=3]Ace pitchers[/h]Number of pitchers to reach ERA or strikeout benchmarks in average season
Benchmark 2006-2009 2010-2012
Sub-3.51 ERA 18.5 32.7
150 strikeouts 37.5 48.7

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In other words, good is actually the new mediocre. Just like we need to lower the bar to think what a good hitter is, we also need to raise the bar for what a good pitcher is. Everyone loves James Shields, right? A 3.52 ERA last year, Kansas City traded a top prospect to get him … well, 29 pitchers had a better ERA than him last year. Now, ERA can fluctuate and it's not the best indicator of a pitcher's skill, but it is one of the categories we play with, and if everyone has a blue car, a blue car ain't that special. So if you have a solid pitching staff you actually have a mediocre pitching staff. If you want to compete in pitching -- giving yourself a chance of a top-3 finish in the four starter categories -- you still need a stud and a very strong No. 2.

10. Don't. Pay. For. Saves.
As for the fifth pitching category, well, that's a horse of a different color, as T-Paine would say in that manner that appeals to both farmers and intellectuals. I've been saying it for more than a decade now, and I will continue to say it until pamphlets become all the rage again. So now and forever, don't pay for saves.

Jim Johnson, Fernando Rodney, Rafael Soriano and Chris Perez. Those were four of the six guys with the most saves last year. The names change every year (last season, I was reminding you that Brandon League, Jordan Walden, Neftali Feliz, Sergio Santos and Kyle Farnsworth were all top 10 in saves in '11), the advice doesn't. Craig Kimbrel is a K-stud, I get it, but in a 10-team mixed league there is no reason to waste a high or even midround draft pick on a closer if you have to pass up guys like Starlin Castro, Billy Butler and Matt Holliday, all of whom are going in the same round as Kid K-Tastic.

11. Format is key. In head-to-head leagues, you should have a higher value on players who'll start later in the season, like Curtis Granderson, Wil Myers or the aforementioned Grandal. Once you get to the playoffs, it won't matter what your team was missing in April. Don't go overboard -- you still need to get to the playoffs -- but you can take more risks with high upside, injury-prone guys and prime your team for the championship, whereas in roto leagues, where you're shooting for the best season-long totals, a shortage in April is just as damaging as a shortage in September.

12. In a points league, be stats-agnostic. It doesn't matter how you get points; saves, wins, steals, home runs, they're all good, and while there is such a thing as too much or not enough of a stat in roto, the same cannot be said in points leagues, where you can theoretically win with nothing but leadoff hitters and relievers. If you're new to points leagues, run last year's statistics through your scoring system and see which players did well and which did worse compared to how you would instinctively value them. Points leagues are all about the specific scoring and a championship head-to-head points league team could very well end up at the bottom of the standings in a 5x5 roto style league.

13. Proven player off a bad year, Part Deux. There's exceptions to every rule, but in general, give me a guy who has proven he can play at a high level in the majors but just suffered through a bad season for some reason (injury, contract status, dating Rihanna) over the next hyped rookie. At this time last year, everyone (well, except me) was talking about Brett Lawrie like he was the second coming of David Wright, and we (as a group) ranked him ahead of Aramis Ramirez and an injured Alex Rodriguez, both of whom finished ahead of him on the Player Rater. Along with 10 other third basemen.
14. What's most likely to happen? This is my advice for any fantasy league. Starting with whom to draft from round to round and continuing on throughout the season when setting your lineup or considering trades and pickups to every other decision you may need to make, use this as your guiding principle: What's most likely to happen? And does this likely outcome help me or hurt me? And then act accordingly. No one can predict the future, obviously, so all you can do is give yourself the best odds to win.

15. Time. Like anything else in life, there are no shortcuts. Seems simple, but many people forget this. A huge asset in fantasy is, frankly, time. And desire. It's not rocket science. And there's tons of people doing good work to help cut down on some of the research. But the more time you put into this, the better you'll do. Read as much as possible. Listen to the podcast. Mock draft (for free!) your brains out. The more prepared you feel on draft day, the more confidence you'll have and the better you'll do. At least, that's the most likely scenario. And that's all we're shooting for.

Matthew Berry -- The Talented Mr. Roto -- will be bringing back the Manifesto come football season. Don't get used to all this brevity. Berry is the creator of RotoPass.com, a website that combines a bunch of well-known fantasy sites, including ESPN Insider, for one low price. Use promo code ESPN for 10 percent off.

 

hacheman@therx.com
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Players I like more than most
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Eric Karabell

Washington Nationals outfielder Bryce Harper forced his way into my overall top 20, and I've confidently penciled him in as National League MVP for 2013. It's safe to say I like him a bit more than most do, whether for fantasy baseball or otherwise. I've also predicted Texas Rangers right-hander Yu Darvish will lead the majors in strikeouts this season and take home the American League Cy Young Award.

But digging deeper down the rankings for players I seem to like more than others, I keep settling in at first base, especially on a wealthy, broken-down slugger for the team I root the most for -- real life over fantasy, every time -- and wonder why so many others simply refuse to see what I do statistically.

<OFFER></OFFER>Ryan Howard was terrible in 2012. Nobody can spin his season positively, other than to say the big fellow was clearly far from 100 percent due to the torn Achilles tendon suffered during the 2011 postseason. Since he's a Phillie, some will say I have a clear bias for him, but I thought ranking him in the 15th round, as ESPN Fantasy did in its top 300, was foolish. He missed my top 100, but not by six rounds. One colleague said Howard wouldn't even hit as high as .200 this season. Hey, to each his or her own, but stemming from how I tend to view recent results in some sort of vacuum, and rarely gloss over skill sets and prior relevant analysis, I disagree.

On a pure baseball level, it's difficult to sugarcoat Howard's overall value when factoring in defense, baserunning, how he reacts when the other team has a left-handed pitcher hurling and, of course, the historic, eventual organization-killing contract. But even as he was regressing statistically -- and he's been barely replacement level for a few years -- Howard still hit for home run power and managed to drive in many runs, thanks to his lineup position and the gentlemen ahead of him getting on base. There aren't many consistent 30-homer, 100-RBI fellows left anymore; in each of the past two seasons, only 12 hitters reached both marks. Howard was among them in 2011, and even last season, as he was floundering to a .219 batting average and limping around, his 14 home runs and 56 RBI in 71 games were well on pace to reach those figures again. I think the power remains, which is why I suppose, in a roundabout way, I like him for fantasy more than others do. Sure, Howard might hit .240 or .250 providing that power, but that's enough these days.

Few seem to like New York Yankees first baseman Mark Teixeira, he of the dropping batting average, and he still found his way into the top 100. Now he's out, but only due to injury.

First basemen with power, like Howard, Chicago White Sox veteran Paul Konerko and the Nationals' Adam LaRoche, are undervalued this season. Don't focus on what they won't do, which varies from batting average woes to health to lack of upside. I wouldn't select these fellows over young bucks like Anthony Rizzo, Paul Goldschmidt or Eric Hosmer -- another guy I really like more than most, since he's in my top 100 -- but there's value to be had after Round 10.


Essentially, I'm wiping away Howard's 2012 season, because I don't think that's really him. I watched it play out every night, once he started playing, and he had one healthy leg, affecting his ability to drive the ball. The reasons to avoid Howard are obvious -- how he walked less, struck out more, all of it -- but I don't think it's as relevant as others believe. Check out ESPN's average live draft results; he's hardly being avoided. In fact, and this is certainly not an ideal gauge since spring training numbers often affect draft status, but no player in the top 200 has seen his stock rise more in the past seven days. People aren't scared, and it's not just a name value thing. Oh, and Howard has hit four home runs and knocked in 12 over parts of 14 games.

I would take Howard in the 10th round, but view this bigger picture: I'd also wait on first base and gladly scoop up Konerko or LaRoche shortly after.

Here are other players I appear to like more than most, with brief reasoning:

Mike Trout, OF, Los Angeles Angels: We've been over this. Check out what colleague AJ Mass wrote. That wasn't my doing!

Troy Tulowitzki, SS, Colorado Rockies: He's in my top 10, as is Toronto Blue Jays outfielder Jose Bautista, and Tampa Bay Rays third baseman Evan Longoria didn't miss by much. Each of these players can provide 140-plus games, with the requisite statistics we've grown to enjoy.

Bryce Harper, OF, Washington Nationals: He's ready. This season.

Ben Zobrist, 2B/SS/OF, Rays: He's ready every season, versatile statistically and for eligibility. Always a fave of mine.

Eric Hosmer, 1B, Kansas City Royals: A year ago, everyone loved him. I change my mind on select players from one year to the next, but not youngsters with these skills. He's still going to be special.

Martin Prado, 3B/OF, Arizona Diamondbacks: Might not run as much, but versatile, safe for batting average, modest pop and will score runs. Add it up and that's valuable.

Matt Moore, SP, Rays: Not really the pitching version of Hosmer, since his 2012 was palatable, but nevertheless he underachieved. This year he won't.

Hunter Pence, OF, San Francisco Giants: Not saying he's a great player, but the counting stats should be there and there's no evidence his small sample struggles at AT&T Park will continue.

Shane Victorino, OF, Boston Red Sox: Another former Phillies outfielder past his prime but still capable of helpful power, plenty of speed and top-100 value at an inexpensive price.

Nick Swisher, OF, Cleveland Indians: Always seems to be there in my drafts, mock or otherwise, in the 17th round when I need power. And I always seem to take him.

Kevin Youkilis, 1B/3B, New York Yankees: Like Swisher, nobody seems to want him, but what a 20th-rounder. Has flaws, but still relevant.

Adam Eaton, OF, Diamondbacks: He's not Michael Bourn, but you can't tell me there's a 20-round difference for what should be similar value.
 

hacheman@therx.com
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How to handle the steals category

By Todd Zola | Mastersball.com

"Batter steps up to the plate; here's the pitch. He's going, and what a jump he's got! He's trying for third, here's the throw. It's in the dirt; safe at third! Holy cow, stolen base!

"Stop right there! I gotta know right now, before we go any further, do you …" have a strategy to approach steals in your rotisserie draft?

"Let me sleep on it."

C'mon Meat Loaf, you know better than that. I once sat next to you for a National Fantasy Baseball Championship draft. You need a plan. You can't just draft like a bat out of hell or your team will look like something out of the Rocky Horror Picture Show.

One too many? Sorry, got carried away, but two out of three ain't bad.

Stolen bases are a category unto themselves in rotisserie scoring. They're singular in nature; an isolated event relying as much on opportunity as skill. The batter must reach safely with an open base, at a time in the game when a steal is a viable option. The baserunner then needs the green light and must be successful. Simply put, a lot has to go right for a player to steal a base.

In order to keep everything in perspective, I must mention again that there are multiple means to attack every draft strategy. Some say there's no right or wrong, just different. On the other hand, do all the paths yield equal chances of success? Consider this: What do you predict the outcome of a roll of two dice will be? There are 11 plausible answers, but probability dictates that seven is the most likely, so it can be argued that seven is the correct answer. It doesn't matter if you're plotting how to accrue steals, homers, saves or whatever, it's always best to decide on a plan rendering the best chance of success. Later, as we review several of the possible plans of attack regarding steals, keep this in mind. In other words, don't simply focus on what can go right; be cognizant of what can go wrong.

In order to plot the most efficient stratagem, it's necessary to get the lay of the land. We'll begin by comparing steals and homers, first in a global sense and then with respect to fantasy baseball.

What makes the stolen base category so unique is the bulk of the statistics are concentrated among a smaller number of players. Using the past three seasons' worth of data, it took, on average, 93 players to hit half the total homers in the league, but only 59 were needed to amass half the steals. Another way to look at it: The top 50 home run hitters account for 32 percent of all the home runs in the majors, while the top 50 base stealers swipe 48 percent of all the steals. The point to remember is a large amount of steals is generated by a relatively small group of players.

Now let's take a closer look at the inventory of players that produce steals. In the past five years, only six players have stolen 50 or more bases in a season, with Michael Bourn last accomplishing the feat in 2011. As such, let's start with 40 steals as our benchmark.

Since 2008, 22 different players have stolen 40 or more bases in a season, but only 10 have done it multiple times. Only Bourn has done it all five years, with B.J. Upton, Ichiro Suzuki and Rajai Davis checking in with three. Last season, six totaled at least 40 pilfers. Davis, Bourn and Jose Reyes were all repeat members, with Mike Trout, Everth Cabrera and Ben Revere all joining the club for the first time.

On average, seven players reach the 40-steal plateau each season. Last season, Coco Crisp finished with 39, so he barely missed being the seventh guy. Depending on whom you trust for your player projections, the following players could all be projected for 40 or more swipes: Bourn, Reyes, Cabrera, Trout, Brett Gardner, Juan Pierre, Emilio Bonifacio, Jacoby Ellsbury, Revere and Crisp. Chances are there will be six or seven players finishing with 40, some from this group. But think about this: Only 10 players have stolen that amount more than once in the past five seasons. Five are listed in the previous group: Bourn, Reyes, Ellsbury, Gardner and Pierre. Five others have done it just once: Cabrera, Trout, Bonifacio, Revere and Crisp. Chances are there will be some first-timers as well. Perhaps Elvis Andrus, Jean Segura, Desmond Jennings, Jose Altuve, Dee Gordon or Carlos Gomez joins the club. Or maybe Cameron Maybin, B.J. Upton or Rajai Davis returns. The point is, counting on someone other than Michael Bourn to top 40 bags is risky (take heed, Trout owners).

Let's drop the goal to 30. Here, 39 players have achieved the target, with only Bourn and Upton doing it all five seasons. However, 21 players, or more than half, did it multiple times, 12 of whom did it at least three times. If the bar is dropped to 20, 97 players have done it since 2008, with 48 multiple-timers. So the confidence a player will amass 20 or 30 steals is a lot more reasonable. There is nothing ground-breaking in this analysis. But by going through it, hopefully you understand how difficult it would be to plan on drafting Michael Bourn and missing out. There is no logical single player to settle on instead.

To be fair, the same conclusions can be drawn by looking at homers. Counting on 40 is risky and as you slide down, the confidence grows. The only difference is there are more players that reach each level, but of course there are more homers hit than bases stolen.

Where things get interesting is comparing the distribution of homers and steals in typical rotisserie standings. We're going to use a technique that normalizes the categories so they can be compared. For this exercise, we assume that there are 100 units per team in the league. So the total stats per category will be 1,000 for the 10-team league, 1,200 for the 12-team leagues and 1,500 for the 15-team league. The relative distance between adjacent places is going to be the same as real standings:

10-team mixed12-team mixed12-team single15-team mixed
Pts HR SB Pts HR SB Pts HR SB Pts HR SB
10 120 138 12 119 137 12 133 151 15 120 140
9 114 125 11 115 127 11 123 137 14 115 129
8 109 117 10 111 119 10 117 126 13 111 121
7 106 109 9 107 113 9 112 116 12 109 117
6 102 103 8 105 107 8 107 108 11 106 112
5 99 97 7 101 102 7 103 102 10 104 108
4 95 91 6 98 97 6 98 97 9 102 104
3 91 84 5 96 92 5 95 90 8 100 99
2 86 75 4 94 88 4 89 82 7 98 96
1 78 62 3 90 82 3 83 73 6 96 92
2 85 73 2 74 65 5 94 88
1 79 64 1 66 54 4 91 84
3 88 78
2 85 71
1 80 61

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In all three leagues, the pattern is the same. There is a large separation from first to second. In homers, the decline is then fairly linear, but the descent in steals is a curve. Perhaps the best means to think about it is if you are in the middle of each category, it's easier to get toward the top in homers as compared to steals. On the flip side, it's harder to lose points in steals.

It's also interesting to note that in the 12-team AL- or NL-only league, the top-to-bottom distribution separation is greater. This might impact the manner you approach single leagues as opposed to mixed.

Another factor that feeds into this analysis is that among the hitting categories, league champions generally fare the best in home runs, with batting average bringing up the rear. However, steals are the next worse category. The lesson: Homers are what wins championships. For what it's worth, the reason batting average is last is there is more natural fluctuation within the category as compared to the others due to the happenstance of a batted ball put into play. On the whole, luck will even out, but there are more points to be lost via bad luck than gained via good luck. Consider a fantasy team whose expected batting average puts them in third place. If they get extremely lucky, the best they can do is gain two points. However, if their luck is just as bad, they can lose more than two points. This is why league champions tend to fare the worst in batting average among the hitting categories. The winners receiving good luck gained only a point or two while those getting some bad luck lost a few more standings places.

Let's summarize what we have learned so far:

• A relatively small number of players comprise the bulk of the steals total (at least compared to homers).

• Relying on the top players in either category is risky, unless you're looking at Michael Bourn in the steals category.

• The distribution within each category is different, with homers being more linear while steals are bunched in the middle with the gaps widening toward the top and bottom.

• Chicks aren't the only ones who dig the long ball; fantasy owners do, too.

There are two primary means to attack the steals category -- "Bourn to run" and spread the wealth -- and a third less-popular one: Punting the category. In redraft leagues, it's perfectly viable to punt steals and focus those assets elsewhere. By filtering out players projected to steal five or more bases, you can load up on power as long as you make sure you have hitters in excellent lineups to keep your runs total near the top. This goes back to the dice example above. On paper, it seems logical to load up on the other categories, and everyone scores runs, right? The problem is power hitters usually knock in more runs than they score and the typical fantasy team accrues more runs than RBIs. These runs generally come from top-of-the-order hitters, those that likely will be filtered off your draft list since they'll steal more than five bases.

Punting steals aside, let's focus on "Bourn to run" and whether that is a viable strategy to construct your roster. One huge issue with this is obvious: If you miss out on Bourn, you're going to be forced to either switch plans (which is perfectly viable) or aim your crosshairs at another speedster like Pierre, Gardner or Revere. But what if you miss out on these players as well? You'll probably have to reach for one to make sure you get him. And anytime you reach, you're leaving value potential on the table.

For the sake of argument, let's say you are successful and add Bourn to your roster without reaching. What's next? The plan can't be just to draft Bourn; you need to build the rest of your roster to complement the bounty of steals you have in the bank with him. The means to do this is, of course, is to target high-power, low-speed hitters. No problem, right? Not so fast. Think about the dice and what can go wrong. Who else will also be targeting power hitters? How about those that plan on getting their speed later, either by piecing it together here and there or aiming for one of the lesser steals specialists, such as Gardner, Pierre or Revere? A strategy works best when you're the only one doing it. It's really nothing more than supply-and-demand economics. The supply of high-power, low-speed players isn't that staunch, while the demand could be. Anytime you limit your inventory, you're minimizing your chances for success.

By this point, you're likely assuming the suggestion is going to be to not rely on a stolen base specialist to get your steals, and instead piece it together. Let's look at this method for a moment. What are the advantages? The obvious one is you're not facing the problem of "Bourn or bust." Other than the stolen base specialists, you have the whole population of players at your beck and call. Your supply is plentiful, and you don't have a demand for anything or anyone in particular. Plus, if you need more, you can always find it from the waiver wire. Or can you? This falls under the mantra of being cognizant of what can go wrong. Sure, there will be speed emerging; there always is. However, there's a reason why it emerges and wasn't originally drafted; it usually comes with a wart of some sort. Either the steals emanate from a hitter with no power, or his batting average is low. In-season, it's all about balance. Do you sacrifice points in the other categories by chasing speed?

Are there any other disadvantages to this method? Well, if you're looking to nickel-and-dime the category, you may end up in the middle of the pack, and if you recall, it's harder to move up in steals in relation to homers. When you're in the middle of the pack, 20 extra homers will help more than an extra 20 steals, not to mention the homers dovetail into RBIs and runs. On the flip side, if one of your steals contributors gets hurt, you won't lose as many points. Again, it's all about balance. In fact, the best approach may be borrowing from the punting idea and shooting for the middle in steals and funnel the resources necessary to gain more points elsewhere, where they can be used more efficiently. In fact, I find this to be a viable strategy, though not my favorite plan.

Ideally, I favor rostering someone like B.J. Upton, Jimmy Rollins or for this year, Carlos Gomez. In other words, I shoot for a couple of players that, combined, will give what Bourn provides, but not at the complete expense of homers. This way, I still can build up my power, but I'm also a little closer to the top teams in steals, so I can make a run if necessary. The pitfall with this method is the usual suspects are all batting average-deficient. So you guessed it, another balancing act is necessary. This one is counting stats at the expense of batting average.

Remember the reference to batting average earlier, how volatile it is? Combine that with the dictum that chance favors the prepared mind and a very viable ploy is to build up all your counting stats, even at the expense of batting average. This does not mean to completely ignore it, though that is becoming increasingly more popular. Shoot for the middle of the pack while racking up the counting stats, including steals. The proof supporting the following is best left for another day, but if you do the normalization described above, you'll discover batting average is the most tightly bunched and the adage that after a certain point in the season you can't gain or lose points in the category is in fact false. You can gain or lose multiple points based on a good or bad September.

The big picture here is one of three things can happen, keeping in mind the intent was to pound up your counting stats: 1) Your average can be where it's supposed to be and you can decide if it's worth trading from counting stats to boost batting average; 2) You got lucky and your average moved up a few places; or 3) You were unlucky and it dropped. Two of those scenarios are favorable, and assuming you indeed have a surplus of counting stats, the third can be rectified as well.

Tying this all together, it is my experience that the most efficient use of resources is to focus on counting stats, looking to distribute your steals over several players, and at least a couple of them should also provide decent pop, even at the expense of average. Employing a steals specialist puts you too far behind in power to assure catching up. It may happen, but the cards have to fall just right.

Before we call it a day, two more quick points need to be addressed since the bulk of this discussion centered on mixed-league snake drafts. We don't want to forget about those in the single-league format or auctions.

The deeper the league, the more likely I am to draft, albeit reluctantly, a stolen base specialist, though I would likely still pass on Bourn since his market price is in the area in which power is still plentiful. The reason I would consider a stolen base specialist in deeper leagues is the relative value of steals is greater the deeper the league is. As an example, our friend Bourn is a high $20 player in American League-only leagues but is worth in the teens in mixed leagues. His percentage contribution to the stolen base pool is much more significant as the player pool penetration deepens. So maybe instead of Bourn, I'll consider Gardner in AL-only, while Revere and Pierre could be viable options in NL-only. And if you happen to play 4x4 rotisserie, their respective values are even higher. Here is one final note on steals and single leagues. Aside from the addition of Houston, there has been a huge influx of steals into the American League, so much so that the average steals per team will be greater than in the National League.

Finally, part of the argument against focusing on a steals specialist was the potential hardships of putting together a viable supporting cast. These fears are somewhat assuaged in an auction since everyone is a candidate to be put on your team. It's much easier to target certain types of players. The key is discerning if your league tendencies avail some market deficiencies. For instance, it was not all that long ago that buying Adam Dunn and Ichiro Suzuki was a very efficient use of assets, as the market value of both was lower than their combined intrinsic value if you bought them both. The same idea can be applied to Bourn, Revere, Pierre, etc. Perhaps pairing a speedster with someone like Adrian Beltre or Prince Fielder would help compensate the lack of power and the aggregate player would cost less than two players each producing half of the aggregate total.

That wraps up our discussion for today. Remember, there are multiple ways to build a roster. I happen to believe this is the most efficient avenue to draft steals based on the standings data. But that's the beauty of data: It's open to interpretation. The most important thing is to at least map out a couple of pathways so you are best able to steal, er, I mean take what the draft gives you.

 

hacheman@therx.com
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Poor batting average can be positive

By AJ Mass | ESPN.com

It's that time of year yet again, when fantasy baseball players look at the statistics from the past few seasons in order to figure out which sluggers to rank at the top of their draft lists. It's a daunting task, especially since you never know when a veteran with a trusted track record is going to unexpectedly break down or when a longtime platoon player is suddenly going to have a career year.

However, even if we could guarantee 100 percent accuracy of statistical projections, there is a strong possibility that people would make mistakes in terms of figuring out the relative value of hitters.

Let's try a little experiment. Where would you consider drafting each of the following hypothetical players in your upcoming draft if you knew for certain they'd give you this production for the season?

Player HR Runs RBI SB BA
Mr. X 30 100 100 6 .310
Mr. Y 27 90 90 5 .300

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Obviously, there are few people out there (if any) who would rank Mr. Y higher than Mr. X since he is less productive in each and every one of the categories in a standard 5x5 league.

However, even though there is a 10 percent drop-off in production in each category, the gap between the two players in the final rankings is not likely to be all that great. Put another way, if Mr. X is a first-round candidate, a la Robinson Cano, then perhaps Mr. Y would be a potential third- or fourth-rounder like Adrian Gonzalez. Don't you agree?

Of course, here's the catch. Mr. Y's batting average is not 10 percent less than Mr. X's. There is only a 1 percent drop from a batting average of .310, which means a 31 percent success rate to .300, or a 30 percent success rate.

In order to see a 10 percent dropoff, you would have to have a batting average projection of .210. If that were the case, then suddenly, Mr. Y is no longer a viable third-round option for most people. In a heartbeat, our poor friend is more likely to be treated like Mark Reynolds, relegated to remain a roster pariah until perhaps the 21st or 22nd rounds of drafts, if he's even selected at all.

But why is this the case? Why is such a bad batting average something that fantasy players seem so afraid to have anywhere near their roster?

Clearly batting average is different from all other standard hitting categories. After all, it is the only offensive category that is not a counting stat. You can belt a home run or steal a base and it's yours for the season. Hit .390 for the month of April, like Bryan LaHair did in 2012, however, and you can still end up with a disappointing .259 for the year.

Unless you trade him away, you never actually own a player's batting average. You're simply renting it.

Put another way, a power hitter who goes an entire month without a round-tripper doesn't help your fantasy stats, but he doesn't hurt them either. You don't lose any ground in the overall home run totals. A hitter who goes into an 0-for-50 tailspin actually impacts absolutely your fantasy team in a negative way. Batting average can provide negative value and drag your overall position in the standings down like an anchor.

However, having said that, we're not sure that you should let it factor into your draft day decisions at all. For one thing, major league hitting, as a whole, has been steadily getting worse over the past seven seasons.

Take a look at the following chart:

Year Average MLB Batting Average Hitters At or Above League Average*
2006 .269 166
2007 .268 159
2008 .264 172
2009 .262 161
2010 .257 161
2011 .255 156
2012 .255 150
*-Minimum 300 AB

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Not only has the average batting average been declining, but the pool of above-average hitters has remained relatively constant. What that means is that although there are still just as many players today as there were in the past that can give you "positive batting average," the amount of positive batting average you need to remain competitive has consistently dropped.

In 2008, a team batting average of .269 would have likely seen you in last place and no higher than eighth in a 10-team ESPN standard league. Last season, that same .269 likely would have had you as high as third place and probably no lower than sixth. A negative batting average simply doesn't hurt you as much in today's game as it used to.

So why worry about batting average at all? Why not take it out of the equation completely and judge the available talent that way? Let's try another "blind taste test." Which of the following three players would you want on your fantasy team for this coming season?

Player HR Runs RBI SB
A 32 66 90 0
B 4 71 41 17
C 23 70 82 16

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It seems to me that it would be a tough choice between A and C, with B very much in the rear. However, if you throw in batting averages and take a look at the ESPN Player Rater values, you suddenly get a very different perception.

Player HR Runs RBI SB BA Player Rater
Ike Davis 32 66 90 0 .227 124
Denard Span 4 71 41 17 .283 120
Yoenis Cespedes 23 70 82 16 .292 36

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The truth is that you can still field a pretty competitive team if you tanked batting average altogether, and while I'm not recommending that you actively choose this as a strategy, that very fact should go a long way towards showing you that there's no reason to avoid selecting one or two "negative batting average producers" at a point in the draft when the value of their "counting stats" merits a selection.

Take a look at a potential made up entirely of hitters below the league average in 2012:

Player Pos HR Runs RBI SB BA ADP
Matt Wieters C 23 67 83 3 .249 60
Adam Dunn 1B 41 87 96 2 .204 208.3
Rickie Weeks 2B 21 85 63 16 .230 152.9
Jimmy Rollins SS 23 102 68 30 .250 81.3
Pedro Alvarez 3B 30 64 85 1 .244 163.6
Danny Espinosa MI 17 82 56 20 .247 142
Eric Hosmer CO 14 65 60 16 .232 116.8
Curtis Granderson OF 43 102 106 10 .232 104.4
Jay Bruce OF 34 89 99 9 .252 38.5
Josh Reddick OF 32 85 85 11 .242 172.3
B.J. Upton OF 28 79 78 31 .246 53.8
Michael Saunders OF 19 71 57 21 .247 ND
Dustin Ackley UT 12 84 50 13 .226 221.4
TEAM TOTAL 337 1062 986 183

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Yes, this team would have finished dead last in batting average in nearly every league. However, the greater point to be made here is that this lineup wouldn't have been a lock to finish last overall by any means. Every league is certainly different, but this could well be a team that finishes in the top three in all of the four counting stats in a 5x5 scoring system. So this irrational urge to "have balance" in your lineup doesn't make sense and far too many people are going to chase empty batting average at the expense of the other offensive categories.

Do you really want to pass on Colby Rasmus for a hitter like Chris Denorfia because his .293 is more appealing to the eye? If you do, then perhaps you're not seeing things as they really are.

 

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Top 50 fantasy prospects for '13

The top 50 baseball prospect ranked for their 2013 fantasy baseball values


By Fantasy Staff | With Keith Law and Jason Martinez

This ranking of the top 50 fantasy baseball prospects for 2013 is intended to predict value for this season only, giving no weight to potential in 2014 and beyond. As such, consideration was given for probability of time in the major leagues as well as each player's current perceived ability to contribute in fantasy leagues.

For your convenience, we have aggregated selected insight from Keith Law's Top 100 baseball prospects (which ranks prospects for their career potential in both offensive and defensive contributions), Top 20 impact rookies, organizational rankings and various other sources. We have also laid out each prospect's path to the major leagues this season. All these elements helped inform the rankings process.


[h=3]1. Adam Eaton, OF, ARI[/h]The D-backs seemingly opened up the starting center-field job for Eaton when they traded Chris Young early in the offseason, closed the window temporarily when Cody Ross was signed as a free agent, then opened the opportunity back up when Justin Upton was dealt to the Braves. The 24-year-old, who has been an on-base and stolen base machine every step along his short minor league journey, should get at least 500 plate appearances out of the leadoff spot despite four outfielders expected to get a good amount of playing time.From Keith Law's top 20 impact rookies "His patience at the plate gives him a chance to be an above-average regular. Eaton's got a little loop and length in his swing, but his hand-eye is very good and he puts himself into a lot of hitters' counts, seeing a ton of pitches (3.96 per plate appearance in his brief major league trial) and drawing enough walks to keep his OBP up."

[h=3]2. Wil Myers, OF, TB[/h]After wearing out Triple-A pitching in his 99-game stint there in 2012 (.932 OPS), Myers is expected back at that level to start the 2013 season, mainly for service-time considerations to push his arbitration clock back one year. The 22-year-old is unlikely to be the Rays starting right fielder until he's there for good in mid-June, but the Rays have shown a willingness in the past to signing their star prospects to long-term contracts which made arbitration eligibility moot.
From Keith Law's Top 100: "He's a patient hitter who needs to work on bat control and might struggle to hit for average at first, producing via walks and power, with an eventual ceiling as a high-average, high-power player who hits second or fourth in a lineup and ranks among the top five players in the league."

[h=3]3. Shelby Miller, SP, STL[/h]The fifth-starter competition is currently a two-horse race between Miller and Joe Kelly, who was solid as a rookie in 2012. But the 22-year-old Miller has top-of-the-rotation potential and proved in the second half of last season (2.88 ERA, 59.1 IP, 48 H, 7 BB, 70 K in 10 Triple-A starts) that he's ready to contribute to the big league club.
From Keith Law's Top 100: "His fastball will reach 97 mph, but he'll sit as a starter in the low- to mid-90s; his hard curveball is his out pitch in the upper 70s to low 80s, while his changeup continues to improve and will flash above-average. Miller's first-/second-half splits from Triple-A tell the story of his mechanical issues; after the break, he walked just seven with 70 punchouts and gave up seven of his 24 homers. He's always going to be a little fly-ball prone because of the lack of life on his fastball, but he has the easy delivery to allow him to command it and the out-pitch breaking ball to miss bats."

[h=3]4. Tyler Skaggs, SP, ARI[/h]The offseason trade of Trevor Bauer left Skaggs as the clear-cut favorite to win the fifth-starter spot in Arizona. He'll have to fend off Patrick Corbin and Randall Delgado but the 21-year-old lefty shouldn't have much of a problem doing that.
From Keith Law's Top 100: "Skaggs makes good use of his height (he's 6-foot-3), staying on top of the ball well through release and adding some deception to an otherwise clean delivery. His frame could still handle a little more weight to increase his stamina and maybe add another tick of velocity. Even as-is, he's a grade of fastball command away from being a No. 2 starter with three above-average-to-plus pitches and the ability to wipe out hitters on both sides of the plate."

[h=3]5. Trevor Bauer, SP, CLE[/h]While non-roster invitees Scott Kazmir and Daisuke Matsuzaka make for interesting early-season comeback stories, it's only a matter of time before Bauer claims a rotation spot in Cleveland. If not right out of the gate, the 22-year-old Bauer should be in the majors no later than late May.
From Keith Law's Top 100: "Bauer's big league tenure in 2012 was a fiasco, heading downhill when he strained a groin muscle in his first outing and didn't speak up and hitting bottom when he and Miguel Montero ended up in a public feud over their lack of coordination on how to attack hitters, but the biggest problem of all was that Bauer didn't throw strikes when he was behind in the count. … Given his age and intelligence, there's no reason to think Bauer can't make that adjustment in time, and Cleveland has every incentive to help him get there. I think the Indians just stole a No. 2 starter from Arizona."

[h=3]6. Oscar Taveras, OF, STL[/h]It will likely take a significant injury to a starting outfielder, or possibly a prolonged slump by center fielder Jon Jay, to see Taveras in the majors before August or September. Make no mistake about it, though. The 20-year-old, who had a .953 OPS in Double-A last season, could succeed at the big league level right now.
From Keith Law's Top 100: "If I told those of you who are Cardinals fans that Oscar Taveras would be the next Vladimir Guerrero, you'd take that, right? I disdain player comps since they so often reflect the wrong similarities -- national origin, alma mater, sometimes even facial resemblances -- but this one fits shockingly well aside from their handedness."

[h=3]7. Gerrit Cole, SP, PIT[/h]The Bucs have enough starting pitching depth to get them through the first few months of the season. At that point, calling up the 22-year-old Cole could serve the same purpose as if the team acquired an impact starter in June or July. The former No. 1 overall draft pick could pitch in very important games down the stretch as the Pirates try to avoid a 21st consecutive losing season.
From Keith Law's Top 100: "Cole's biggest issue now is fastball command, not just physically but mentally. He has to break that tendency to try to respond to adversity on the mound by putting the next pitch through the catcher, working instead on locating it and mixing in those other pitches. [2012] was his first full year of calling his own games, with plenty of positives, and given another half-year or so in the minors he should be ready for the Pirates' rotation, with a future as a No. 1 starter."

[h=3]8. Jedd Gyorko, 2B/3B, SD[/h]There's no question that Gyorko will find his way into the Padres' lineup at some point in 2013. But will he be that much better than Logan Forsythe, who had an .852 OPS in 90 September at-bats last season, that the penny-pinching Padres will start his arbitration clock a year early? If they think so, expect to see him on Opening Day. If not, look for the 24-year-old in mid-to-late June.
From Keith Law's Top 100: "Despite the gaudy Triple-A line, I see Gyorko as more of a hitter for average than a power guy because he is so balanced at the plate with minimal weight transfer or torque from hip rotation. He has very good hand-eye coordination and a solid enough approach to be a .300 hitter at his peak with .360-plus OBP, although I see him as a 15-homer guy instead of a 25-homer one."

[h=3]9. Jurickson Profar, 2B/SS, TEX[/h]Unless Ian Kinsler reconsiders and is willing to move to first base at some point in 2013, the best Profar can hope for is a utility role in which he could get occasional starts at second, shortstop and possibly even third base. Barring injury, the 20-year-old switch-hitter, and Keith Law's top-rated overall baseball prospect, is likely to spend at least half the season playing every day in Triple-A before joining the big league club in a part-time role.
From Keith Law's Top 100: "He has an outstanding approach at the plate that allowed him to make the two-level jump from low Class A to Double-A without losing much production, and he showed more power this year than I expected; his frame isn't big but he stays upright through contact better now and he does get plenty of hip rotation to drive the ball. At short he has superlative actions with a plus-plus arm and plenty of range in both directions, so there's never been a question about his position. A good defensive shortstop who posts OBPs around .400 and hits 15-20 homers a year is a player around whom you can build your roster, and who should help keep the Rangers in contention for the next decade."

[h=3]10. Billy Hamilton, SS/OF, CIN[/h]Just because the Reds don't have a proven center fielder -- whoever is better between Shin-Soo Choo and Jay Bruce will end up starting there in 2013 -- doesn't mean Hamilton has an easy path to the majors. The fastest man in baseball, who stole a minor league record 155 bases between Double-A and high Class A last season, will be entering his first season in the outfield after a switch from shortstop and has yet to play a game above Double-A. Still, baseball fans can't wait to see the dynamic switch-hitter atop the Reds' lineup. They might have to settle for a pinch-running specialist late in the season unless one of the Reds' outfielders suffers a significant injury.
From Keith Law's Top 100: "At the plate, Hamilton has plenty of bat speed and has become strong enough to avoid having pitchers light him up inside; he drifts over his front side and probably won't ever hit 10 homers in a season, with a little more rotation in his swing when he hits right-handed. He played center in Arizona in the fall and, for a player new to the position, his reads improved very quickly out there. He has the speed to make up for it when his reaction isn't quick enough; most surprisingly he threw better from center than he ever did at shortstop."

[h=3]11. Leonys Martin, OF, TEX[/h]Michael Bourn appeared to be a nice fit in Texas but the Rangers will be content with a Martin/Craig Gentry platoon in center field. The 25-year-old out of Cuba had an impressive stint in Triple-A last year (.359 BA, 12 HR, 18 2B, 10 SB in 55 games) but struggled in the majors (8-for-46). The Rangers didn't give him a $15.5M major league deal in May 2011 so he could spend the next several years in the minors, so I wouldn't expect a short leash.
From Keith Law's Top 100: "He has something like 46 or 47 days of service on the 25-man roster, and the limit is 45, and to be honest I have never been a fan of Martin's swing. He's a plus defender and can really run, but I try to stick to the true ROY criteria, which eliminated him (from inclusion on the prospect rankings)."


[h=3]12. Julio Teheran, SP, ATL[/h]Teheran had been atop prospect lists for years before a disappointing 2012 season had him fall off the radar a bit. An impressive finish to the Dominican Winter League and a strong start to the spring, however, to go along with a clear path to a rotation spot, has the baseball world taking notice once again.
From Keith Law's Top 100: "Teheran is still just 22 years old, even though he's in his third year on these rankings, sliding a little each year as the adjustments he needs to make don't occur. And in Teheran's defense, it's easier to see a prospect as disappointing when early expectations were so high, even though there are still many positives in his scouting report. … His arm is quick enough to produce decent break on a curveball or slider, and getting that pitch to be consistently average or better would prevent hitters from sitting on fastballs up in the zone so easily. He throws hard, throws strikes and has an above-average off-speed pitch, so there's a lot to like here with youth on his side. To reach his potential as a No. 2 or better, though, he'll have to improve that third pitch and keep his fastball down in the zone."

[h=3]13. Hyun-Jin Ryu, SP, LAD[/h]The Dodgers invested $62 million to bring Ryu over from Korea, which is only part of the reason he entered spring training as a heavy favorite for a rotation spot over Chris Capuano, Aaron Harang and Ted Lilly, who will likely be either traded or pitch out of the bullpen to begin 2013.
From Keith Law's blog "Based on this look, and a scout's comment to me on [March 6] that Ryu was exactly the same guy in his previous outing, I don't see more than a fringy fourth starter here. Lefties with 45 fastballs can succeed in the majors if they have outstanding command and control, which Ryu didn't show, and if they've got a knockout breaking ball to neutralize lefties, which Ryu didn't have in this outing. The changeup is legit, good enough that he'll miss some bats, but I worry about him being homer-prone or even just too contact-prone on the other stuff, especially the fastball, especially once the league gets a few looks at his delivery."

[h=3]14. Travis d'Arnaud, C, NYM[/h]Don't expect d'Arnaud in the majors until sometime in June, but he should be ready to take the majority of playing time from John Buck behind the plate once he does arrive. He's also expected to provide some right-handed pop to the middle of a lineup that will probably be lacking in it.
From Keith Law's Top 100: "He has plus raw power, thanks to good hip rotation and a big finish to his swing, giving him 25-30 homer potential if he can ever play a full season. He has solid hand-eye coordination for contact but doesn't walk much, so he might peak as a .280 hitter with a .330-.340 OBP, buoyed more by his power than anything else. His defense has improved substantially since he was first drafted by the Phillies, with throwing the strongest aspect of his game."

[h=3]15. Kyuji Fujikawa, RP, CHC[/h]If Carlos Marmol struggles again as he did in the first half of 2012, Fujikawa will likely get the first crack at replacing him as the closer. If Marmol pitches as well as he did in the second half of 2012, there's a good chance he's traded. Either way, Fujikawa is expected to play a significant role in the back of the Cubs' bullpen throughout the season.
Keith Law's top prospect rankings does not include NPB players.

[h=3]16. Dylan Bundy, SP, BAL[/h]The O's have a ton of starting pitching depth so rushing the 20-year-old Bundy probably isn't necessary. On the other hand, Bundy might already be better than any starting pitcher in the organization. If they can somehow limit his workload in the minors -- he pitched only 122 innings in 2012 between the minors, majors and Arizona Fall League -- he could get the call in June or July and still have enough innings left in his arm to play an important role down the stretch, be it from the bullpen or in a spot-starter role.
From Keith Law's Top 100: "Bundy … work[ed] on his other off-speed pitches this year, with a solid-average curveball and a changeup that probably won't be as effective as the cutter, and he has some work to do with fastball command. He has one of the minors' best deliveries, his conditioning is superb and he's a diligent kid with a great work ethic. So while he may not pitch in the Orioles' rotation until 2014 or so, he still has No. 1 starter upside."

[h=3]17. Mike Zunino, C, SEA[/h]While Jesus Montero likely gets a couple of months to prove he can be a halfway-decent big league catcher -- spoiler alert: he's probably not -- Zunino will be getting to know the impressive crop of Mariners pitching prospects that he'll be working with once they all reach the majors in the near future. A midseason call-up wouldn't be a surprise for the No. 3 overall pick in last year's draft.
From Keith Law's Top 100: "His swing isn't entirely conventional, with a slight drift over his front side, but he keeps his weight back enough to drive the ball. His real asset at the plate is his hands, strong and quick, giving him the ability to go to all fields, and, combined with good leverage from proper hip rotation, at least average power if not better."

[h=3]18. Dan Straily, SP, OAK[/h]Straily was nowhere to be found on 2012 preseason prospect lists but it wasn't long before he announced his presence, racking up 190 strikeouts while walking only 42 in 152 innings at Double- and Triple-A. The A's could have a tough decision to make once Bartolo Colon returns sometime in April but the 24-year-old Straily won't be going anywhere if he continues to pitch as he did last season.
From Keith Law's AL West prospect rankings: "Dan Straily is ready to be someone's No. 5 starter now, with the hope that he might end up a league-average guy in a year or so; he led the minors in strikeouts last year without a real plus pitch, changing speeds well and throwing strikes."

[h=3]19. Wily Peralta, SP, MIL[/h]The Brewers failed to address their rotation this offseason even though it appeared to be a glaring need. But maybe they just have more confidence in their young pitching than anyone else does. The 23-year-old Peralta is all but guaranteed to be one of those young pitchers with a rotation spot after an impressive five-start stint to end last season.
From Keith Law's Top 100: "Peralta's drop on this list is almost entirely a function of his control troubles in Triple-A, as he still has the same arsenal he did a year ago, with the secondary stuff slightly better. He will sit in the mid-90s with good downhill plane, generating ground balls and working well to both sides of the plate. His breaking ball and changeup continue to improve, both good enough to miss Triple-A bats even though he doesn't command either well enough yet. He is his own worst enemy on the mound, often reacting to adversity by trying to throw harder, reaching 98-99 but seeing his stuff flatten out in the process."

[h=3]20. Zack Wheeler, SP, NYM[/h]The Mets have plenty of veterans in their rotation, but can you really count on Johan Santana, Shaun Marcum and Dillon Gee to stay healthy all season? Last year, young gun Matt Harvey made his major league debut on July 26th after 20 Triple-A starts. It wouldn't surprise anyone if the 22-year-old Wheeler made his Mets debut a month sooner in the season if the injury bug bites the Mets once again.
From Keith Law's Top 100: "Wheeler mopped the floor with Eastern League hitters before a late-season promotion to Triple-A. He'll pitch at 91-96 and touched 98 in a brief stint at the Futures Game. He has an out-pitch curveball up to 80 mph and a straight change that is probably too hard to be truly effective, with lefties posting a .386 OBP against him in Double-A. Wheeler takes a long stride toward the plate with big hip rotation to generate arm speed, and he pitches very aggressively with the fastball."

[h=3]21. Danny Hultzen, SP, SEA[/h]He appeared to be on the fast track in 2012, dominating in 13 Double-A starts, but hit a wall and completely lost his command once he reached Triple-A. Give him a month or two back in the minors to redeem himself and he should find himself in the major league rotation for good.
From Keith Law's Top 100: "Hultzen always cut himself off a little rather than landing straight in line to the plate, but when I saw him in Triple-A, he was cutting himself off more than ever and couldn't locate to his glove side at all. That should be an easy fix, and if that's the only issue, he should get back on track and would still project as a solid No. 3 starter."


[h=3]22. Kolten Wong, 2B, STL[/h]Daniel Descalso is one heck of a defensive second baseman and Matt Carpenter had an .828 OPS in 114 big league games as a utilityman in 2012. But if Descalso can't hit enough and Carpenter proves he's not good enough defensively -- he's played a total of five games there in his career -- Wong will get a shot to prove he can be the total package.
From Keith Law's Top 100: "Wong has a short swing with good bat speed and really tracks the ball well into the zone. There won't be power there but he should always be a high-contact hitter, and while he hasn't walked a ton so far in pro ball, it wouldn't surprise me if he added that to his game later given how well he seems to see the ball out of the pitcher's hand. He's a 50 to 55 runner who needs to work on his reads of pitchers to convert that into baserunning value."

[h=3]23. Nick Castellanos, OF, DET[/h]The 21-year-old Castellanos is very good at hitting a baseball, which is part of the reason the Tigers moved him from third base to the outfield so they can expedite his arrival in the big leagues. How big of a role he'll have depends on how well Andy Dirks does, but there's a good chance Castellanos figures into the left-field mix at some point in 2013.
From Keith Law's Top 100: "Castellanos is one of the best pure hitters in the minors, reaching Double-A at age 20 after hitting .405 in the first half for high Class A Lakeland. But some other deficiencies in his game limit his ultimate ceiling. … He's a below-average runner who could have stayed at third if the Tigers had been patient with him, but they've moved him to right field now to accommodate the statue they have playing third in the big leagues, hurting Castellanos' value in the process. What that leaves us with is a right fielder, potentially an average or better one, who should hit for average and power but has to improve his approach, especially recognition of borderline balls and strikes, to be able to get to the contact and the power. He'll still be an above-average regular, but at third he had a chance to be a star."

[h=3]24. Bruce Rondon, RP, DET[/h]Even though Rondon can throw it 102 mph, the Tigers probably shouldn't go with an unproven 22-year-old with just eight Triple-A innings under his belt as their Opening Day closer. Still, Rondon has the potential to be a weapon in the late innings after he's eased into the big leagues in a less stressful role.
From Keith Law's Top 20 impact rookies "Yes, he has a job and he throws extra-hard, but he doesn't have the great second pitch or the control you'd like to see in someone being handed the closer mantle, as silly as the narrowly defined role is. The Tigers do seem determined to at least give Rondon a tryout in the ninth inning, and he might miss enough bats with pure velocity to rack up some saves for his fantasy owners along the way."

[h=3]25. Casey Kelly, SP, SD[/h]He might be the best of all the No. 5 starter candidates for the Padres, but it wouldn't hurt if the 23-year-old Kelly made 10-12 starts in Triple-A before joining the major league rotation. He missed most of 2012 with a sore elbow and pitched 66 2/3 innings between three minor league levels and the majors.
From Keith Law's Top 100: "He is the best fielding pitching prospect I've ever seen, a superlative athlete with an easy delivery who will show three above-average to plus pitches, but he gets hit far more often than someone with all of these attributes should. The Padres moved him to the first-base side of the rubber late in 2011 so he could get more life to his glove side and stay out of the middle of the plate, but hitters still get good looks at the four-seamer. Everything Kelly threw in the majors finished too far up in the zone. … There's too much raw material to write Kelly off, but he won't come close to his potential unless he learns to pitch down and perhaps switches to a two-seamer or sinker to avoid hard contact on the fastball."

[h=3]26. Mark Rogers, SP, MIL[/h]Out of options, the Brewers will likely not risk exposing the hard-throwing Rogers to waivers if he doesn't make the 25-man roster. He's probably too inconsistent to put him in the rotation, though, so he could get a shot to stick as a middle reliever with a chance to pitch in high-leverage situations if he does well out of the 'pen.
Is not in the top 10 of the Brewers' system, the No. 29-ranked organization by Keith Law.

[h=3]27. Matt Adams, 1B, STL[/h]Blocked in St. Louis by Allen Craig, Adams is too good of a hitter to stay in the minors much longer. Barring an injury that opens up a spot, the 24-year-old might not get a chance in 2013 unless he's traded. The way he's hitting this spring, interest is likely strong already.
No. 8 in the Cardinals' system, the top-rated system according to Keith Law.

[h=3]28. Kyle McPherson, SP, PIT[/h]With Francisco Liriano expected to start the season on the DL, McPherson is in the running to win the fifth starter spot. The 25-year-old could also help in the bullpen, where he was impressive in a late-season stint with the Bucs last season (11 2/3 IP, 2 ER, 9 H, 2 BB, 11 K).
Is not in the top 10 of the Pirates' system, the No. 7-ranked organization by Keith Law.

[h=3]29. Chris Archer, SP, TB[/h]Alex Cobb and Jeff Niemann are the favorites to win the last two rotation spots but neither is capable of replacing James Shields' production. Archer has the potential to be that guy and he should get a chance to prove that the first time the Rays need an extra starter.
From Keith Law's Top 100: "This hard-throwing right-hander, nicknamed Duchess, recovered some of the ground he lost in 2011 when he struggled with fastball command and his lack of a third pitch, throwing more strikes and missing more bats, although he did still show a significant platoon split in Triple-A and an even larger one in the majors. He has the two pitches to be a dominant reliever, but he needs "glue up" to get that change to the point where lefties don't tee off on him so he can develop into a No. 2 or 3 starter."

[h=3]30. Kyle Gibson, SP, MIN[/h]The Twins' No. 1 pick in 2009, Gibson returned from Tommy John surgery late in 2012 and logged only 28 1/3 innings during the regular season and another 23 1/3 innings in the Arizona Fall League. The competition for a rotation spot isn't stiff but the 25-year-old should start the season in Triple-A, where the Twins can ease him back before giving him a shot in June or July.
From Keith Law's Top 100: "He is back to 92-94 with his four-seamer, and he works down in the zone to keep the ball on the ground as much as possible. His best pitch is a hard slider that he uses to wipe out right-handed hitters but also used in changeup counts against lefties, throwing it behind their hands or at their back feet just as they were leaning in to cover for changeups on the outer half. His change is hard at 84-85 but good enough with slight fading action to make hitters have to protect for it, so the slider plays up. He might be on an innings limit in 2013, as it's his first full year back after surgery, but he's ready for the Twins' major league rotation and could be its best starter by the end of the year."



[h=3]31. Aaron Hicks, OF, MIN[/h]One of the biggest stories early in spring training, Hicks has a clear path to the Twins' starting center-field job as long as the Twins don't want to hold him back for service time. According to general manager Terry Ryan that is not an issue, but he's supposed to say that unless he wants the players' union to file a lawsuit on the player's behalf. Either way, expect Hicks in Minnesota's starting lineup by midseason.
From Keith Law's Top 100: "Hicks is a patient hitter with a better swing from the right side, staying back better and showing more hand strength, resulting in more power against lefties than he shows against righties, but he's improved enough from the left side to show he can and should continue to switch-hit. He's a plus defender in center with an 80 arm and a plus runner who should be good for 25-30 bags a season, if not more. If he develops 20-homer power, he's a potential star; if not, he's a very good everyday player thanks to his defense and potential for high OBPs."

[h=3]32. Hunter Morris, 1B, MIL[/h]Injuries to Corey Hart and Mat Gamel have opened the door for Morris to make the jump from Double-A to fill the spot temporarily until Hart returns. The alternative is likely a platoon between Taylor Green and Alex Gonzalez.
No. 10 in the Brewers' system, the No. 29-ranked organization by Keith Law.

[h=3]33. Nolan Arenado, 3B, COL[/h]There was more buzz surrounding Arenado entering last season but he struggled in spring training and then went on to have a less-than-impressive season in Double-A. With less attention this time around, the 21-year-old is opening eyes and could force his way into the Rockies' lineup early in the season.
From Keith Law's organizational rankings: "Nolan Arenado took a huge step back with a poor performance (although he was young for his league) and plenty of reports from scouts that he was playing with little energy." No. 3 in the Rockies' system, the No. 23-ranked organization.

[h=3]34. Jameson Taillon, SP, PIT[/h]Could follow same path as Gerrit Cole with a midseason call-up in 2014, but the 21-year-old has the stuff to succeed should the Pirates decide to go with a youth movement in the second half of this season.
From Keith Law's Top 100: "Taillon has top-of-the-rotation stuff, not that far behind teammate Gerrit Cole's arsenal, but doesn't miss as many bats as you'd expect given what comes out of his arm and may be more of a 1A to Cole's 1 when it's all said and done."

[h=3]35. Rob Brantly, C, MIA[/h]With John Buck out of the picture, the starting catching job belongs to Brantly. The left-handed hitter posted an .832 OPS in 31 late-season games in 2012 after being acquired from the Tigers.
From Keith Law's Top 20 impact rookies "Brantly is penciled in as the Marlins' starting catcher, but he is a terrible receiver and has neither power nor patience at the plate. (His high on-base percentage in the majors was inflated by the 10 walks he drew in 59 plate appearances while batting eighth; he had three walks in the other 54 times he reached the plate.) He will get playing time early in the season but could lose the job to Jeff Mathis, who can't hit but can handle the job's defensive aspects."

[h=3]36. Trevor Rosenthal, RP, STL[/h]He has a chance to make the team out of spring training as a reliever but he could have a bigger impact later in the season if the team's starting depth comes into question. Pitching out of the Triple-A rotation early in the season would allow him to stay prepared if that opportunity did come.
From Keith Law's Top 100: "Rosenthal has two great attributes to keep him in the rotation -- that big fastball, more 92-97 when he's starting, and the athleticism that allows him to repeat his delivery even with some effort and to locate his fastball around the zone. His arm is so quick that everything he throws is hard, sometimes compromising break or movement. His slider touched 92 once in the majors last year, and even at its usual 88-90, it's more like a big cutter than a true slider; his changeup is closer to a BP fastball; his curve has the strongest definition, right around 80-81 mph with downward break."

[h=3]37. Carter Capps, RP, SEA[/h]There's a good chance that the M's, who already have Tom Wilhelmsen closing out games and a few very good lefty relievers, could have a bullpen that opponents dread facing late in the game. Capps and his upper-90s heater should be part of that equation somewhere around the seventh or eighth inning.
From Keith Law's Top 20 impact rookies "I actually prefer Capps as a prospect to Rondon -- he has a better breaking ball and is more likely to throw strikes, with marginally less velocity -- but Rondon has a clear job right now and Capps doesn't. Seattle's bullpen roles are far from set, however, and Capps could win a job and move into higher-leverage roles over the course of the year."

[h=3]38. Nick Franklin, MI, SEA[/h]He's blocked by one of the best defenders in baseball, Brendan Ryan, at shortstop and is a better fit at second base, where Dustin Ackley is entrenched. The 22-year-old switch-hitter was nearly traded as part of the package that would have brought Justin Upton to Safeco, and it wouldn't be a surprise if he's shopped again to a team that can give him starting job at some point in 2013.
From Keith Law's Top 100: "He's close to useless hitting right-handed, but he hits for average and power from the left side, even with some drift to his front side, compensating with good hand-eye coordination and strong wrists. The floor is a second baseman who saves several runs on defense and hits for average with 10-15 homers; the ceiling is a shortstop whose glove doesn't hurt you but might creep up toward 20 bombs if hitting exclusively left-handed boosts his overall line."

[h=3]39. Tony Cingrani, SP, CIN[/h]Even if Aroldis Chapman makes the move to the rotation, he pitched just 74 2/3 innings in relief last season, which brings into question whether he'd be able to pitch 200 or more innings in 2013, let alone the talk that Dusty Baker would prefer Chapman in the closer role. Rotation depth should play a key in the Reds' success and Cingrani could be next in line if the durable starting five from 2012 (Mike Leake is first in line for any starts out of the bullpen) can't hold up the entire season. If they do, the lefty could be a force out of the 'pen in the second half.
From Keith Law's Top 100: "His changeup is average now and flashes better than that, working because hitters see the ball so late. The slider is still pretty fringy and may never be more than a third pitch for him. He throws a ton of strikes, and his command is good enough overall to work at least in a back-end starter role, although I tend to think high-deception guys can't rely on that trait to last forever in the majors and eventually will need to improve their location."

[h=3]40. Mike Olt, 3B/1B, TEX[/h]The signing of Lance Berkman closed the last possible opportunity Olt had of winning a starting job out of spring training. However, his ability to play multiple positions (3B, 1B, RF) and his right-handed power will have him in Texas before the All-Star break.
From Keith Law's Top 100: "A poor defensive shortstop in college at UConn, Olt has remade himself into a plus defender at third, and he has big raw power that could produce 30-plus bombs a year if he makes enough contact. That's the main question on Olt at this point. Contact rates were an issue for him in college, and between Double-A and the majors last year, it's resurfaced to the point where he's probably going to be a low-to-moderate batting average guy who draws 60-70 walks a year and hits 20-25 homers."


[h=3]41. Anthony Rendon, 3B, WSH[/h]A near big league ready hitter, Rendon is also a man without a certain future in Washington. This is what they call "a good problem to have" because the Nats are simply set at each position and even a position change for Rendon wouldn't help him now. Barring an injury, the 22-year-old won't get to the majors until he can prove that he's a capable defender on the right side of the infield, as he already is on the left, so he can fill a utility role down the stretch.
From Keith Law's Top 100: "Rendon has tremendous bat speed with a very advanced approach at the plate, discriminating well between balls and strikes and putting himself in favorable counts; his strikeouts are less a result of passivity than a result of mistiming pitches within the zone. … He made up for some of the four months he missed during the regular season with a strong campaign in the Arizona Fall League, but still needs to show he can hold up for a full season. His bat isn't that far away once he's healthy enough and there's an opportunity in D.C."

[h=3]42. Allen Webster, SP, BOS[/h]There wasn't that much excitement surrounding Webster when he was acquired in the blockbuster trade with the Dodgers last August. Four appearances into his first spring training with the Sox (11 IP, 2 ER, 9 H, 1 BB, 14 K), though, and there might not be another pitching prospect creating more buzz than the 23-year-old. He'll begin the season in the Triple-A rotation but could be the first in line should the Sox need another starter.
From Keith Law's Top 100: "Webster will show three plus pitches and looks like he should be at or near the top of someone's rotation, but as a converted position player, he has struggled to develop enough fastball command to translate the raw stuff into on-field success. … As you'd expect from a former shortstop, he is athletic and can repeat his delivery well, but he lacks the feel for pitching that he'll need to succeed as a starter even at Triple-A, both in terms of just throwing strikes and in using and mixing his pitches more effectively."

[h=3]43. Kevin Gausman, P, BAL[/h]Bundy is certainly the most talented pitcher in the organization and Gausman might be second in line. The O's have a ton of depth in the rotation but they've made it known that they expect the 22-year-old to move quickly.
From Keith Law's Top 100: "He will sit 93-97 and can touch 99, but his improved command of the pitch was a big reason he took a giant leap forward in 2012. The other reason was that above-average slider, 82-86 with hard downward break, the breaking ball he needed to be more effective against right-handed hitters. He always had a plus changeup at 83-86 with strong fading action, giving him a true three-pitch mix where he could peak with three grade-60 pitches. Gausman's delivery is much cleaner than it was in high school, starting with a very high leg kick, staying over the rubber well with a strong finishing over his front side."

[h=3]44. Christian Yelich, OF, MIA[/h]Marlins fans should come to the park to watch Giancarlo Stanton, who can hit a baseball really, really far. Watching him take batting practice might even be worth the price of admission. But they might not have many other reasons to watch this team, which is one of the reasons Yelich could get the call from Double-A sometime this summer. The 21-year-old, who hasn't played a game above high Class A, is on the fast track anyways and should be able to hold his own against major league pitching.
From Keith Law's Top 100: "Yelich has one of the prettiest swings in the minors, with strong, steady hands; a short and very consistent path to the ball; and good rotational motion giving him some power in his follow-through. At just 20 years old for the 2012 season, Yelich led the high Class A Florida State League in slugging while finishing second in batting average and OBP (behind a 24-year-old), even hitting left-handed pitchers at a reasonable rate. He's a good athlete and solid-average runner who can handle the range aspects of center field but whose awkward throwing motion has always made him a candidate to move to left field. He has improved just enough that center looks like it might be an option long term."

[h=3]45. Oswaldo Arcia, OF, MIN[/h]Hicks isn't the only rookie who could end up in Minnesota's outfield in 2013. Chris Parmelee gets the first shot in right field but Arcia, who had a .928 OPS between high Class A and Double-A last season, could have the job by midseason.
From Keith Law's Top 100: "Arcia's hands are explosive enough that he has a harder time getting them through airport security than through the strike zone, a little busy as he loads with a downward move but a late move into a strong position followed by a great path that's direct to the ball with great extension for 25-plus homer power down the road. He hit 17 bombs last year, although his line was inflated a little by a friendly home park. A full year in Triple-A will give us a better read on how far away he is from translating that hand speed into real power."

[h=3]46. Martin Perez, SP, TEX (Inj)[/h]He was the leading candidate for the fifth starter spot before a fractured forearm knocked him out of action for the first six to eight weeks of the season. Even with Colby Lewis likely to return from flexor tendon surgery sometime in the second half, the 21-year-old lefty should get a decent chance to log innings in the majors in 2013.
From Keith Law's Top 100: "Perez's struggles are functions of inconsistency, poor command and some immaturity on the mound, all of which are interconnected; he'll turn 22 in April, so he's young enough to improve, but it's a concern that he's shown little progress in the art of pitching over nearly 600 pro innings. … You can't give up on a lefty with this kind of pure stuff, but it's time for Perez to show he can convert it into zeros on the scoreboard."

[h=3]47. Avisail Garcia, OF, DET[/h]An impressive late-season call-up that also included a 6-for-23 performance in the postseason likely ensures Garcia will be back again down the stretch in a similar role. However, he'll have to contend with Castellanos for an earlier promotion and a bigger role.
From Keith Law's organizational rankings: "(He) may be an extra outfielder for (the Tigers), but I'd like to see him play every day in the minors to see whether he can improve his plate discipline, allowing him to eventually get to some power." No. 2. in the Tigers' system, the No. 25-ranked organization.

[h=3]48. Evan Gattis, OF/C, ATL[/h]Interestingly, he was moved from catcher to left field last season but his chance to win a bench job is strong if the Braves think he can handle the backup catcher's job. His versatility certainly helps his chances but the right-handed power he provides should eventually make him a key piece of the 25-man roster.
From Keith Law's organizational rankings: "Gattis, 26, might get a break from beating up younger competition in the minors and earn some at-bats as a backup catcher/left fielder." No. 10. in the Braves' system, the No. 20-ranked organization.

[h=3]49. Jackie Bradley Jr., OF, BOS[/h]It appears that the Sox are planning on giving Jonny Gomes the bulk of starts in left field since there aren't any viable candidates to fill the role of his left-handed-hitting platoon partner. But Bradley has been impressive this spring and might be a lot closer to the big leagues than originally thought. Is he "Opening Day" ready? Probably not, but a call-up by mid-May is not beyond the realm of possibility.
From Keith Law's Top 100: "His lower half can be a little noisy at the plate, getting his front foot down late, gliding over his front side and sometimes even drifting back mid-swing. But when he keeps his swing short and simple he generates hard line-drive contact from foul line to foul line, with doubles power that might max out around 10-12 homers a year. When he over-rotates to try to hit the ball out, he doesn't make enough contact and the result of the tradeoff is a net negative. His best attribute as a hitter has been his plate discipline, producing high walk rates in the minors with good pitch recognition as well, producing a .373 OBP after his promotion to Portland."

[h=3]50. Adeiny Hechavarria, SS, MIA[/h]The Marlins won't miss a beat defensively with Hechavarria, who replaces Jose Reyes at shortstop after the blockbuster trade with Toronto. The 23-year-old has some holes in his offensive game, but there really aren't any other options so the job is his to lose.
From Keith Law's Top 20 impact rookies "Hechavarria probably will win the everyday shortstop job, play great defense and hit absolutely nothing all year."
 

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Tristan's Twenty: Guys I'm targeting

By Tristan H. Cockcroft | ESPN.com

Make your team your own.

These days, there is a mountain pile of data out there to help you craft your fantasy roster. Rankings, projections, sleepers and busts, ADP, scouting reports, advanced statistics … it's a lot to take in. Throughout the offseason and preseason, you'll read scads of advice and hear many different angles on players.

Yet even with all that information, I'd argue that you need one last critical ingredient to emerge a fantasy champion:

You need to formulate your own strong opinions about players.

You need to inject some you into your roster.

For example, I spent $3 over "book value" -- I define that as my projected prices on my draft sheet for the given draft -- on Austin Jackson in this year's League of Alternative Baseball Reality (LABR) auction. I saw his profit potential as potentially greater than $3, had banked a few dollars comparative to book in the earlier stages of the auction, and saw a decreasing number of attractive fallback candidates. Putting Jackson on the team made it "mine." Putting Alex Rios ($21 book, $24 sale price) on the squad would've made it feel like someone else's.

It is in this space where, just as I did a year ago, I share my most extreme opinions on players. It is opening my playbook, showing you my aforementioned "book values," revealing the players for whom I'll pay the extra bucks in drafts. These are the players I expect to draft to the majority of my teams come draft day, and they are players I call "Tristan's Twenty."

A caveat: Now that I've published them, there's an excellent chance I won't get a single one. After all, publishing the list affords my competition the opportunity to bid me up, and I stress that there is always a limit to a player's price, even the ones you like best. The danger for those of you who compile similar lists of your own is growing too attached to the individuals; the point is to go a little further for them, but not too far. Paying $3 more to secure your preferred target's services is one thing; paying $10 more is something else.

Let's set two ground rules, in the interest of balancing the picks:
• Ten players apiece from the American and National Leagues.
• At least one player from each position except designated hitter, being that so precious few players qualify only there.

Now, here are "Tristan's Twenty," in no particular order:

[h=3]Austin Jackson, OF, Detroit Tigers[/h]
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Jackson is first up to bat -- fitting considering his role atop the Tigers 2013 lineup -- as a follow-up to my LABR "overbid." The obvious defense: He was the No. 57 player overall on our 2012 Player Rater, but that was with 21 Tigers games missed due to an abdominal strain. Scale Jackson's stats to a full season and he'd have been a top-30 player. The stronger defense: He made huge strides in terms of his plate discipline, rate of hard contact and fly ball/line drive rate last season, an impressive trio of skills improvements. He's also 26, close to his physical prime.

[h=3]Jed Lowrie, SS, Oakland Athletics[/h]
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Facts are facts: Lowrie has appeared in fewer than 100 games in each of his past four professional seasons, averaging 92 per year as a pro, meaning he's less deserving of an "injury-prone" label than having those words actually tattooed on. Still, between all the ailments, he has flashed an impressive track record of patience and power potential, walking more than 10 percent of the time and hitting a fly ball more than 50 percent of the time in his career, skills that hint at sneaky .350/.500 potential in the on-base/slugging percentage categories. There could be 25 homers in his bat, a plateau only three middle infielders reached in 2012, and that makes him well worth a look for what's scarcely even a draft consideration in a 10-team mixed league.

[h=3]Brandon Belt, 1B, San Francisco Giants[/h]
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One of two repeats from last year's list, Belt's comment from a year ago remains valid: "The Giants need to give this kid a place to play every day. If they can't, they need to trade him." They haven't traded him, but this year they appear set to finally grant him every-day at-bats, after he posted .329/.390/.494 triple-slash rates in 55 games the final two months of last season. Though AT&T Park lacks the configuration to inspire a huge power boost for Belt, his 5.7 home run/fly ball percentage in 2012 is in dire need of correction. Double it and make him a regular and he's between a 15-20-homer hitter.

[h=3]Anibal Sanchez, SP, Detroit Tigers[/h]
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I'm going to steal only one pick from my "Kings of Command" column to avoid redundancy -- let's call that another rule -- and Sanchez is that pick. Consider it an effective way of saying "This is the one from that column that I see with the greatest return-on-investment potential." Sanchez's skills were touched upon in that column, but a fact that wasn't mentioned: He received the third-least run support of any qualified pitcher the past three seasons combined (3.80 runs on average per nine innings), and the second-least in 2012 alone (3.17), and now he pitches for a team with tremendous odds of reaching the five-runs-per-game plateau -- that's a minimum of 810 runs in a 162-game season.

I know, I know, I'm making a case for wins, which is thoroughly anti-Tristan. But wins remain one of the traditional five Rotisserie categories, therefore requiring a projection, and if you're to project the pitcher with the greatest increase in the category this season, Sanchez has to be near the top of the list. And if he wins, say, 16, his stats would look a lot like A.J. Burnett's 2012 -- worth the No. 27 starting pitcher spot on our Player Rater.

[h=3]Chris Tillman, SP, Baltimore Orioles[/h]
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Tillman's ground-ball rate -- 35.2 percent in his 15 big league starts last season -- was the one category that caused him to miss "Kings of Command" inclusion, but he possesses comparable profit potential to those 10 picks nevertheless. Two skills improvements planted the seeds: One was a velocity bump, his fastball 92.3 mph on average; the other was more polish on his secondary pitches (curveball and changeup specifically). If you're looking for a prototypical example of the "post-hype sleeper," Tillman sure fits.

[h=3]Brandon Morrow, SP, Toronto Blue Jays[/h]
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Morrow is the one guy on the list for whom I might not reach more than 10-15 spots sooner comparative to ADP (currently 111.6, ranked 106th overall), but there's no question that I'd look at him not a single spot later than that. Though he maintained his reputation as an injury-prone player by spending 73 days on the disabled list with a strained oblique last season, when he was healthy, he made massive strides with his control (career-best 2.96 walks per nine), his splitter (.585 OPS allowed) and his ability to work out of the set (.579 OPS allowed with men on). A little luck in the health department could elevate him into the top 20 fantasy starters; this is the pitcher you get outside the top 100 who has the best shot at that group.

[h=3]Matt Carpenter, 1B/3B/OF, St. Louis Cardinals[/h]
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The Cardinals need to find somewhere for Carpenter to play, and considering the substantial advantage he has over Daniel Descalso with the bat, chatter about him emerging as a regular second baseman has merit. Carpenter is the kind of guy you'll get for a buck in a mixed auction, or maybe $5-7 in NL-only leagues, who draws enough walks and makes consistent enough contact to stabilize any team from the back end in either batting average or on-base percentage (whichever your league uses). Frankly, a .300/.400 year with 450 PAs isn't out of the question.

[h=3]Jedd Gyorko, 2B, San Diego Padres[/h]
fan_g_gyorko_sy_65.jpg



I admit up front that this is more of an adhere-to-the-rules than flat-out-love pick, as Gyorko probably falls just beneath my desirable range for our standard, 10-team mixed format, while potentially being overrated in 12-team NL-only leagues like LABR (he sold for $10). Frankly, when it comes to bargains at second base, I see myself striving harder to acquire two non-eligibles who should earn eligibility there quickly: the aforementioned Carpenter, and Emilio Bonifacio.

But Gyorko is one of the lower-range second basemen I'd pick if I'm waiting that long, thanks to strong minor league statistics that hint at a somewhat low downside for a rookie. Between Double- and Triple-A combined in his pro career, he was a .303 hitter with a not-totally outrageous .332 BABIP, 9.4 percent walk and 17.6 percent strikeout rates, and line-drive rate over 20 percent. There's no reason that, at worst, Gyorko could give you a .260 batting average and 15 home runs. At best, he bats .280-.285 and approaches 20 homers.

[h=3]Max Scherzer, SP, Detroit Tigers[/h]
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How can you not like a pitcher riding a three-year upward pattern of both strikeout-to-walk ratios (his 3.85 number last year was a career best) and average fastball velocity (94.2 mph in 2012)? Scherzer has elevated himself to a top candidate to lead the majors in strikeouts … but this pick is a lot more than that. Let's flash back to last spring, when he was working on polishing a cut fastball, a pitch he has experimented with since college; Scherzer might not yet have mastered it (nor ever will), but the attempt shows ingenuity. He's aware of one significant flaw in his game -- the lack of a truly dominant pitch against left-handers -- but he improved against them nevertheless the second half of last season (playoffs included), limiting that side to .253/.329/.403 rates. Scherzer is still learning, developing, and as a 28-year-old with 133 starts' big league experience, he might be ready to elevate himself into the top 50 overall players … for the price of a mere ninth-rounder.

[h=3]Glen Perkins, RP, Minnesota Twins[/h]
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Managers might appear to have a bias toward right-handers as closers, but Ron Gardenhire is one of the few with a history of trust in lefties: He's the one who made Eddie Guardado a full-time closer, back in 2002, and he turned to Perkins as the leading man of his committee when the position became open last summer. In either example, Gardenhire picked the most deserving guy, and in Guardado's case, the decision spawned one of 2002's best bargain-bin closer seasons. Perkins has closer makeup: He limited right-handers to .249/.306/.396 rates the past two seasons combined to demonstrate little split concern, and he had a 4.88 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 2012 that ranked 15th out of 136 qualified relievers. Who's to say he can't have a 45-save year like Guardado's 2002?

[h=3]Oscar Taveras, OF, St. Louis Cardinals[/h]
fan_g_taveras_d1_65.jpg



Let's be clear: There will not be a "Mike Trout of 2013." It's not happening, so don't ask. But if the question is posed more realistically -- "Who will be this year's most valuable midseason call-up?" -- then Taveras is my answer. He's highly unlikely to break camp with the team, but a call-up before the All-Star break is possible, considering how quickly he adapted to Double-A last year (.340/.374/.670 in April) as well as his plate coverage -- he's a bit of a free swinger but also more than capable of developing into one of the game's best bad-ball hitters, hence the Vladimir Guerrero comparisons. It might take only an injury to Carlos Beltran, who turns 36 in April, for Taveras to finally get his chance, and once he does, I think he'll be one of the quickest prospects to adapt that we've seen in some time.

[h=3]Lorenzo Cain, OF, Kansas City Royals[/h]
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Injuries ruined Cain's 2012 -- he missed three months with a groin strain in the first half, then was shut down for the year in mid-September due to a strained hamstring -- but between those DL stints he looked quite the part of the bargain power/speed pick. It's manipulating samples, yes, but scale those 56 games played (in 59 Royals contests) to 162 team games and Cain would've been a .275/.326/.440 hitter with 19 home runs and 27 stolen bases. Consider that a fair higher-end expectation; this is a pick where you're simply hoping for some luck in the health department.

[h=3]Todd Frazier, 1B/3B, Cincinnati Reds[/h]
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Message to Dusty Baker: Jack Hannahan should be your late-inning defensive replacement at third base and occasional starter against the toughest right-handers. Anything that narrows the plate appearance gap between Frazier and Hannahan close to even is a mistake, because Frazier possesses the kind of tantalizing power potential that could vault the Reds into the upper echelon of offenses. He made substantial gains in terms of his contact and fly-ball rates, and is in a ballpark where a near-50 percent latter number could result in 30-plus home runs if he gets the at-bats. Talk up Hannahan's presence to your league mates as reason to doubt Frazier; if you're an owner who drafts skills before roles, then Frazier is an outstanding value beyond the 15th round.

[h=3]Bobby Parnell, RP, New York Mets[/h]
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When seeking cheap sources of saves, buy skills, not roles. OK, Parnell does have the role, at least initially for the Mets while Frank Francisco nurses an elbow injury, but that's not the reason he's the smarter investment; it's that he's the more skilled of the two full-year candidates. Thanks to the addition of a two-seam fastball -- it has been judged as worth three runs above average in each of the past two seasons, per PitchF/X -- he has vastly improved both his command (3.05 K's per walk in 2012) and ground-ball rates (62.4 percent). You might need patience with Parnell, if the Mets insist that Francisco get a chance to close once healthy, but there's an outstanding chance Parnell will save 20-plus, between the saves he gets in early April and the likely prospect of more once Francisco cedes the job back.

[h=3]Drew Smyly, SP, Detroit Tigers[/h]
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I went back and forth between whether to include Smyly in my "Twenty" or my deep sleepers column -- yes, there will be a deep sleepers column -- and decided that, in the end, Smyly seemed too likely to boost his draft stock this spring to the point he'd be an awkward fit as a sleeper. Currently the Tigers' No. 6 starter, Smyly posted a 3.79 ERA, 1.21 WHIP and 3.38 K's per walk ratio in 18 starts in the bigs last season, numbers that were all easily better than Rick Porcello's. Smyly also seemed to work through the adjustments that all young pitchers face: His curveball was already major league quality, limiting opponents to a .143 batting average with 30 strikeouts; his fastball only improved in time, as foes batted .310/.388/.563 against it in his first nine starts, .255/.315/.461 with it in his final nine. There's a reason the Tigers were rumored to be shopping Porcello all winter; it's that they're more than confident in Smyly's skills as their No. 5 starter. You should be, too.

[h=3]Cameron Maybin, OF, San Diego Padres[/h]
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One statistic, and one statistic alone, offers hope for Maybin: He'll play this season at 26 years old, smack dab during his physical prime. I know that doesn't seem like enough, but to be fair, he costs the price of a mere 25th-rounder in 10-team mixed leagues … that is a lower ADP than his 2012 Player Rater standing (221st). Maybin still possesses immense power -- his 427-foot average home run distance last season was tops among batting average qualifiers -- but merely needs to get more lift on the ball to exploit it; he hit grounders 56 percent of the time in 2012. Remember: Petco Park has somewhat smaller dimensions this season, and it's possible that the result will be a slightly more aggressive approach at the plate by their hitters.

[h=3]Carlos Gomez, OF, Milwaukee Brewers[/h]
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B.J. Upton's 2012: That is the ceiling you're shooting for with Gomez this season. Like Upton, Gomez has his flaws, most notably massive risk in both batting average and on-base percentage -- the latter a result of his free-swinging nature -- but Gomez does possess the greater contact ability of the two (76.4 percent contact rate in 2012, compared to Upton's 70.5). What made the difference for Gomez last season was a more aggressive approach at the plate, evidenced by a 5 percent rise in his swing rate on pitches in the strike zone, and a 5 percent increase in hard contact on those pitches. It is a skills improvement, and coupled with his defensive ability, should be more than enough to push his playing time closer to the 600 plate appearances, rather than 2012's 452 range. And a potential 150-PA bump might be all it takes to put Gomez in Upton 2012 territory: top 50 on the Player Rater.

[h=3]Jonathan Lucroy, C, Milwaukee Brewers[/h]
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Much of the reason for my Lucroy love is laid out in our Staff Sleepers and Busts, but as I like not to repeat facts even if I repeat picks: He enjoyed a 120-point OPS bump against right-handers last season to address what was previously his greatest weakness. In a season when Salvador Perez is absorbing all the hype at the catcher spot, I call Lucroy this: He's the National League's Perez, except that, shockingly, he's generating nowhere near that level of hype.

[h=3]Ike Davis, 1B, New York Mets[/h]
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The other 2012 repeat, Davis did provide a healthy return on investment last season -- as long as you were patient enough with him during his .166/.230/.284 first third of the year -- but he's on the list again because he should get even better in 2013. This is a burgeoning home run champion, having hit 27 home runs the final two-thirds of the season and boosting his fly-ball rate to 47 percent in the final third, perhaps the greatest remaining obstacle he faces is the Mets' still-pitching-friendly home ballpark. If you've noticed how deep the first-base position is this season, waiting for Davis in the 10th round is a smart strategy.

[h=3]Alexi Ogando, RP, Texas Rangers[/h]
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Ogando's 2011 as a baseline for 2013 is more than fair, as he possesses the skills to be a good -- albeit not elite -- starter. In 30 career starts, he has 17 quality starts, a 3.49 ERA, 1.12 WHIP and 2.93 K's-per-walk ratio, and his skills back it up: He possesses a mid-90s fastball and biting slider, which make him difficult to hit in any role even if they leave him susceptible to the occasional, untimely homer. Ogando is going in the 21th round on average, but the Ogando of 2011 was the No. 53 pitcher, and No. 136 player overall. There's considerable value to be had here.
 

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