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How the Cardinals use sabermetrics

By Anna McDonald | ESPN.com

ST. LOUIS -- On the bookshelves in John Mozeliak's office, several books with a dark background and bright red letters on the spine stand out. The shelves hold many items, some pictures and many baseball books, but it is the red letters the eye gravitates toward. They read, "Bill James Handbook."

It is surprising Mozeliak would have books by Bill James, whom Bob Costas once described as the man responsible for revolutionizing baseball, only because as the St. Louis Cardinals' general manager he has available to him endless statistical information most of us will never see. What does he do with these books?

Mozeliak says he likes the James handbooks because he can get a quick snapshot of players and they are all in alphabetical order.

"A lot of times I label the pages of particular players I'm working on and just flip to it," Mozeliak said. "The James book to me is almost more like baseball cards' stats now. I utilize our own internal system, which is more sophisticated and gives us sort of different answers anyway, so I have both at my disposal."

People define sabermetrics in many different ways, but for Mozeliak sabermetrics is a tool and a reference for how one can value players.

"Sabermetrics to me was always sort of the society of baseball and math; where they collide," Mozeliak said. "I also think it's a little more of the history of the game, and an appreciation for performance in terms of how you rank players."

In 2004 the Cardinals made a conscious effort to build an analytics department. A baseball team can’t become sabermetric-minded overnight; it takes time to establish and then time to work out the kinks.

"At the time we called it Baseball Development," Mozeliak said of the initiative. "We still have that department in play. It's evolved quite a bit. We no longer solely have people in that department that don't have some baseball background. It is a diverse group, and that group is looking at how to best combine advanced metrics as well as traditional scouting."

Mozeliak says people working in baseball naturally gravitate to numbers. He does not have a degree in math but says, "there are guys down this hall that do." While he uses advanced statistics, he doesn't throw out all the traditional ones.

"I do think ERA has relevance on the pitching side," Mozeliak said. "Although it is not perfect, it does give you an idea of how [pitchers] are performing."

He also utilizes WAR, a linear weights statistic that when used to evaluate batters combines batting, fielding, baserunning and replacement level by position.

"There is no perfect stat, but when you look at trying to define Wins Above Replacement, it is a very simple place to grab information and get a feel for it," he said.

There are several versions of WAR out there, and while he looks at all of them, he does have a favorite.

"I use our own internal system, because that's what I'm most familiar with and also in the past five, six years I feel like we've made very good decisions based on it," Mozeliak said. "My confidence in it is very strong."

The job of a general manager is filled with constant decision-making. In the past teams would rely solely on scouting information and very generic statistics. Mozeliak says using advanced statistics helps him make the best decisions possible.

"Now we're able to combine these advanced stats with the ability now to really create a model that gives us sort of recommendations on contracts, salary and length," he said. "When you start thinking about things like the aging curve -- that is something I think 20, 30 years ago when players were signing contracts, they were signing contracts for what they accomplished -- now people are signing contracts for what you expect them to do."

It is general knowledge that most teams use some sort of advanced statistics these days. While some teams use them more than others, the industry is learning how to use sabermetrics to gain even the smallest of edges.

"When everybody is doing the same thing or close to it, is there a competitive advantage? Probably not, right? So when you think about how all organizations now are valuing certain things, what we do now is spend a lot of energy trying to determine what is being overvalued and then look at what is undervalued. Then maybe we should be swimming at that end of the pool. So, that's one focus."

The other focus is a more corporate approach. Mozeliak describes it this way: "Meaning, here we have this way of thinking that's on top of the company. How do we get that to be accepted from a bottom-up approach?"

It is one thing for front offices to use advanced statistics, but for teams to gain an advantage, the statistical research also needs to trickle down to on-field personnel.

"What we do is we don't force-feed it, we don't necessarily tell people, 'This is how you have to think and here's why,' but we do [give] subtle examples of why we think it is important, why we value certain things from an analytical side and how they can incorporate that into their day-to-day job. I assure you it's not a [meeting] where we sit down there and have a statistical advanced class every spring training, because it is just not helpful.

"Player development, for example, they understand what they are doing; they understand their business and they're good at it. I will say where analytics do come into play is two places. One is the amateur draft. It has become a really important tool for the success of our operation. The other part that comes into play is determining promotions and demotions in minor league players and, again, we do not solely make decisions on what these numbers say. We allow all the people we have working for us to have a voice in this, but we do have some guidelines that we use that help us make these decisions."

When evaluating a player such as outfielder Oscar Taveras, a top prospect in the Cardinals organization and one of the best in baseball, there are several prongs to making a decision on what turns a prospect into a major league player. Mozeliak says you can think of the process as legs to a table.

"If you lose one or two the table falls, so you really need all [of them] to stabilize your decisions," Mozeliak said.

One aspect would be the scouting, such as bat speed or a player's mechanics. A second is statistics. For the Cardinals, another important part is work ethic and character.

"The character component of our decision-making does not account for anything in the analytical world," said Mozeliak. "We don't put it in the algorithm, because it is just not there, but we do try to do our due diligence on the back end on what kind of person they are and how they will fit into our clubhouse, because we really do feel that's a key component to our success."

Projections are yet another branch, but they can be tricky.

"Projections at the lower levels are very difficult to use for major league projections," Mozeliak said in evaluating a player such as Taveras. "Having said that, when you do have the kind of performances he's had, it's not hard to start looking at major league projections for him. So, Taveras actually is into that now for us."

In recent years the Cardinals seem to have a tendency to emphasize college players in the draft. Is this a product of relying highly on analytics?

"I will say that when you look at collegiate players from an analytical standpoint, it is much easier to make projections versus high school stats. [High school stats are] really a lot of noise with no real clear answer," Mozeliak said. "We do try to balance off the draft where we are not exclusively college or high school. Now I think a lot of our success stories have come from college, but I think in time, maybe in 2014, 2015, you are going to see this shift of the Shelby Millers of the world show why we drafted him."

On the major league level advanced statistics do trickle down to the coaches. Mozeliak says the daily job of determining who should play and why they should play is a decision that takes into account so many things most of us never see. He says it is helpful having a manager like Mike Matheny who is willing to look at advanced statistics, but at the same time Mozeliak doesn't want to create a "paralysis downstairs" because the advanced statistics can be a little overwhelming.

"I believe how [Matheny] puts a lineup together is that he is utilizing things we give him from upstairs, but we don't want to bury him with having to overthink things. Most importantly, we hire a manager to make that lineup. I do think one thing that Mike and his staff have done a very good job of is embracing anything we can put together as far as advanced scouting for them. Trying to eliminate small sample sizes and make them accept larger ones for probabilities has been helpful. Mike, he is a young manager that is very interested at looking at the best ways to be successful, so that's always a good sign when you have that in an employee."

Mozeliak's goal is for the coaches to tell him and the statistics department what information they want and need, rather than just feeding them information the analytics department has put together. At some point though, as more teams figure out how to use advanced statistics in a way that will trickle down to on-field decisions, will the Cardinals need to reinvent or revise the entire process to maintain an edge?

"I think so," he said.

"Your first statement is the truest of all," Mozeliak continued. "When you said, 'How do you have a competitive advantage?' There may come a time when there is no place to push stats, like some of the defensive world is still improving, right? Nobody feels like they've got that nailed, but with the creation of f/x data there's a chance it is going to get pretty good quickly. [FIELDf/x data tracks player positions, providing feedback for reaction times and if a play in the field was even possible]. So from an organizational standpoint, we are always looking at ways that might have nothing to do with stats, but give us that advantage."

For now, Mozeliak's desk offers a clue to one way the Cardinals have maintained a competitive edge since he became general manager in October 2007. There are a few black binders scattered about on his desk. There is also a copy of "The Hardball Times 2013 Annual" on top of a pile of papers. When I ask if it is all right if I mention that he reads these sabermetric books, Mozeliak smiles and with the tone of confidence only a GM with one World Series championship under his belt (and plans for more rings in the future) can have, says, "Sure."

"They are there, I use them," Mozeliak admitted. "My geeky reading."
 

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Bullpens: Valverde to sign with Marlins?
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Eric Karabell

Bullpens: Valverde to sign with Marlins?
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Eric Karabell


Jose Valverde was never quite as good as the numbers looked in his "perfect" 2011 season, when he saved 49 games in as many opportunities, but at the same time, his struggles in 2012 should not be viewed as anywhere near the end of the line for useful relief pitching. Let's face it, Valverde really isn't all that bad, and now that he is reportedly close to inking a one-year contract to close games for those crazy -- or are they? -- Miami Marlins, I actually like the sleeper possibilities here.

<offer>Those of you counting on competent right-hander Steve Cishek for saves aren't going to enjoy the premise here (assuming Valverde goes ahead and signs). Valverde is going to close for the Marlins, and while we can debate whether he's actually going to pitch well in the role, that's mostly irrelevant for fantasy owners. He just needs to pitch well enough in ERA, WHIP and strikeout rate to keep the job and help us. It's not going to be the easiest thing to watch some nights, but when 25-plus closers go off the 2013 draft board and Valverde is still around, because the uncomfortable specter of him struggling to get anyone out last October remains on our minds, try to remember that a pitcher doesn't need to pitch exceedingly well to save 35 games, as he did in 2012.</offer>
Papa Grande was due for major regression last season, but I'd argue that didn't really happen, not to the extent many believe it did. For all that went wrong, Valverde still saved 35 games, more than all but 10 pitchers, and produced a 1.24 WHIP, which was better than fellow closers Joel Hanrahan, John Axford, Addison Reed, Jonathan Broxton and Greg Holland, as well as Cishek. Of course, WHIP is just one statistic, but it does measure baserunners allowed. Cishek wasn't exactly Dennis Eckersley in his closing prime last season, and since he has 259 fewer career saves than Valverde and wasn't effective against left-handed hitters last year, this doesn't seem like much of a spring competition. Forget about how painful it was watching Valverde in the postseason; he's getting a new opportunity now.

I had planned on writing a blog entry Monday about Valverde and Brian Wilson, former save providers looking for work, and trying to find homes for them. South Florida was definitely among the teams I felt should look for their services, even if a World Series appearance seems unrealistic. The Marlins take on a short-term contract/investment here and could lose many games, but by late July they'd have an interesting trade chip to dangle to contenders, which could bring them back a relevant prospect. All Valverde must do is pitch well enough, which would mean getting his splitter back in productive order -- I don't see why he can't -- and cutting down his walk rate. And again, this wasn't Frank Francisco or Heath Bell in 2012. From May through August, the middle four months, Valverde's ERA was an even 3.00 with a strong K rate. The Marlins, to their credit, didn't let the final six weeks cloud their overall judgment of him.

Also, I'm not nearly as certain as many pundits that the Marlins will lose more than 100 games this season. Valverde should still get plenty of save chances. There haven't been any reports of injury, so I'm going to expect 70 decent innings from him now that he's back in the National League, with an ERA around 3.00, a WHIP near 1.25, 60 strikeouts and 35 saves, making him a prime sleeper late in drafts. Hanrahan might go 10 rounds earlier, but guess which pitcher I'd prefer in terms of value on draft day? Hey, I miss the likes of Todd Jones, a late-round or free-agent staple of my teams when he was closing. We just want the saves. Sure, Valverde won't be Craig Kimbrel, but who is? Half of all Opening Day closers lost the role last year, so that should clearly affect our investment level and keep our eyes on free agency every April. I wouldn't even bother drafting the sidearmer Cishek as insurance now. If you want a young, off-the-radar name to eventually procure saves in Miami, go with right-hander A.J. Ramos. He saved 21 games with a 1.44 ERA and a 0.83 WHIP at Double-A Jacksonville last season, and appears to be the future for Miami in the ninth inning.

As for Wilson, I still think he will find work on a minor league deal -- the contending Toronto Blue Jays or even the awful Houston Astros would make sense, frankly -- but it's unlikely to come with the New York Mets, one of the teams that has looked his way. While the Marlins were signing Valverde the Mets brought in Brandon Lyon, and again, rip the right-hander all you want, but he was effective in 2012 and could easily close out games over Francisco and Bobby Parnell this season. Lyon posted a 3.10 ERA and more strikeouts than innings pitched for two teams in 2012, and this is a nice situation for him. I still expect Francisco to lead the Mets in saves, with Parnell next in line, but Lyon is certainly in the mix for fantasy owners in NL-only and deeper formats.
 

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[h=1]Ranking the farm systems[/h][h=3]St. Louis, with five top-100 players, boasts the top system in baseball[/h]By Keith Law | ESPN Insider

To kick off my look at the best prospects in the minor leagues this week, I've ranked all 30 MLB farm systems from top to bottom, considering only the players who are currently in their systems and who have not yet exhausted their rookie of the year eligibility. (I use the same criterion for the individual player rankings that will be posted over the next three days.)

I've done these rankings for the past few years, and I was surprised at how few farm systems there were this year that had both impact and depth, fewer than in any of the previous years in which I've gone through this exercise. Some of that reflects all of the major promotions that took place in 2012, but we've also hit a slightly down period in the cycle of farm system quality.
<offer></offer>

[h=3]1. St. Louis Cardinals[/h]
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The Cardinals have drafted well, fared well in Latin America, traded well and developed well over the past five years, fulfilling the main goals of a farm system: Provide talent for the major league roster, and provide currency for trades to do the same.

St. Louis has shown a willingness to use young players in minor roles, with some of them graduating to full-time roles, a process I think will be easier under current manager Mike Matheny -- and it's a good thing, as the system is bursting with players who look like they'll be ready for the majors in the next year and who project as average regulars or more.

There at least five guys in the Cardinals' system -- if we include Tyrell Jenkins, who's coming off a shoulder injury -- who project as mid-rotation starters or better. Two of them -- Shelby Miller and Trevor Rosenthal -- are ready now. They've got the minors' best pure offensive prospect in Oscar Taveras, their usual assortment of unheralded relief prospects and plenty of depth in the type of bat-first college position prospects they've had success with over the past few years, a strategy that helped yield guys like Allen Craig and Matt Carpenter.

They're in extremely good position to keep the major league club in contention for another five years without forcing them to ratchet up the payroll, and should produce a few rookie of the year candidates in that period, as well.


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[h=3]2. Minnesota Twins[/h]
The Twins placed more players on my top 100 (seven) than any other team, only one of whom was initially signed by another organization, and they added a former top-100 guy, Trevor May, in a trade this offseason. Their system is particularly strong in center field, enough that they're working on converting Eddie Rosario to second base, and has more power arms with a chance to start than it has at any point in the past decade.

The major league team is down, and isn't going to turn it all around in a year, but there's a lot of talent coming around which the Twins can build another contender.


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[h=3]3. Tampa Bay Rays[/h]
The Rays had some setbacks among their highest-profile prospects this past year, but added a top-10 prospect in Wil Myers, a top-100 prospect in Jake Odorizzi and a former top-100 prospect in Mike Montgomery in the James Shields trade. They're deepest in power arms, although many of them are a grade or two of command below where they'll need to be to profile as starters, and right now their next impact bat after Myers would be in low Class A or short-season ball.


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[h=3]4. Houston Astros[/h]
The Astros had the second most money to spend in last June's draft and used it extremely wisely, landing the second player on my draft board and four other players off my top 60, while also adding some lower-ceiling talent through trades of the few valuable assets the new front office inherited. Their top two picks from 2010, Delino DeShields Jr. and Mike Foltynewicz, bounced back from disappointing first years to re-establish their prospect value, as well.


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[h=3]5. Chicago Cubs[/h]
The Cubs' rebuilding process isn't much further along than the Twins' or the Astros' in terms of time, but they spent extravagantly in the international market before the new CBA's restrictions went into effect last summer, landing the Cuban toolshed Jorge Soler (and the Cuban flop Gerardo Concepcion, but we're not going to talk about him), then later using their international pool money on the Dominican pitcher with an electric arm currently known as Juan Carlos Paniagua, who has gone through more names than the thief known as Parker. The Cubs also scored big in last year's draft, addressing the system's lack of starting pitching candidates while also bulking up its depth in outfield prospects.


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[h=3]6. San Diego Padres[/h]
My top system from last year graduated several players to the majors, saw a few significant injuries to top pitching prospects but then added a ton of high school pitching talent through a very strong draft. The system's weakness is in near-ready talent, where only infielder Jedd Gyorko and right-hander Casey Kelly are likely to be significant contributors this year, with lefty Robbie Erlin a possible option for the back of the rotation.


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[h=3]7. Pittsburgh Pirates[/h]
Their top two pitching prospects rival any club's at this point, with Gerrit Cole likely to reach the majors this year and Jameson Taillon probably a year behind, while their low Class A West Virginia roster was one of the strongest teams for prospects, including up-the-middle bats, last spring. The knee injury that wiped out nearly all of 2011 bonus baby Josh Bell's season after his awful (tiny-sample) start hurts, as he needed those repetitions at the plate and in the field.


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[h=3]8. Seattle Mariners[/h]
The Mariners still have that raft of starting pitching prospects, with Victor Sanchez and Brandon Maurer stepping up as James Paxton took a step back. Their first pick in the draft, Mike Zunino, might be the first position player from that draft class to reach the majors.


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[h=3]9. Texas Rangers[/h]
They have Jurickson Profar, arguably the top prospect in baseball, three guys in the back half of the top 100, and as much talent from their short-season rosters last year as any organization in baseball, primarily on the position-player side. Their international spending spree had to end under the new CBA, but many of the fruits of those efforts are just now reaching full-season leagues, setting the Rangers up well to maintain their contender status for several more years.


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[h=3]10. New York Yankees[/h]
It's a top-heavy system, but the group of position players who started in low Class A Charleston last year, some of whom finished in high-A Tampa, could produce as many as three above-average or better regulars plus several other guys who'll have big league value. They'd rank even higher had they not lost two major starting pitching prospects to season-long injuries, with one, Manny Banuelos, probably out now until 2014.


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[h=3]11. Kansas City Royals[/h]
The Royals aren't well represented on my top 100 (although two prospects they just traded are on it), but they've got more sleeper/breakout candidates than any other organization. I could go more than 10 deep and still make good arguments for those prospects to jump on to the list next year, guys like Jorge Bonifacio, Adalberto Mondesi, Miguel Almonte and Kenny Diekroeger. I didn't like the trade for James Shields, but I still really like the overall direction of things in Kansas City when you look from top to bottom.


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[h=3]12. Cincinnati Reds[/h]
They have this really fast guy you may have heard of, and actually saw some strong debuts for 2012 draft guys and have three starting pitching prospects already marching up through full-season ball, one of whom, Tony Cingrani, got a cup of coffee in September.


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[h=3]13. Baltimore Orioles[/h]
Dylan Bundy emerged as the minors' best pitching prospect in 2012, while their first pick from last year's draft, Kevin Gausman, was one of the hottest names in Florida instructional league in September. They'd rank higher had Manny Machado not lost his rookie eligibility in September.


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[h=3]14. New York Mets[/h]
The R.A. Dickey trade really boosted their system, and several Latin American arms had strong years in 2012 to bolster the system's total value. First-rounder Gavin Cecchini could move quickly for a prep kid, as he's pretty advanced for a teenager and doesn't have much blocking him at shortstop.


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[h=3]15. Arizona Diamondbacks[/h]
Dealing Trevor Bauer for 50 cents on the dollar didn't help, nor did failing to get any of Atlanta's top six prospects in the Justin Upton trade, but they're still very deep in arms and now oddly deep in shortstops who can field but don't get on base. Infielder Andrew Velazquez and right-hander Ben Eckels, their seventh- and 11th-rounders from last year's draft, both came out strong in rookie ball and could be minor steals, yet neither sniffed the team's top 10.


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[h=3]16. Miami Marlins[/h]
An impact bat (Christian Yelich), an impact arm (Jose Fernandez), a couple of above-average guys from Toronto (Justin Nicolino and Jake Marisnick), two quick-moving lefties (Andrew Heaney and Adam Conley) from the past two drafts … this is the best system that Florida taxpayers' money could buy!


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[h=3]17. Boston Red Sox[/h]
A lot went right on the farm for Boston this year, with Xander Bogaerts looking like he can stay at shortstop, Jackie Bradley Jr. lighting everyone up with his plate discipline and Matt Barnes and Henry Owens posting very strong full-season debuts. The system's real shortage is in big league ready talent, with right-hander Allen Webster probably the closest.


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[h=3]18. Los Angeles Dodgers[/h]
They are a little underrepresented in the top 100, but with a lot of guys who'd either be in the next 50 or who could jump into the top 50 next year. That group is led by Yasiel Puig, who barely played in 2013 before surgery to address a staph infection kept him out of the Arizona Fall League.


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[h=3]19. Cleveland Indians[/h]
With Francisco Lindor and Dorssys Paulino, they have some of the best shortstop depth of any organization in baseball right now. They could be primed for a big leap if any of the young pitching they've drafted the past two years comes through in 2013.


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[h=3]20. Atlanta Braves[/h]
They actually didn't give up that much in the Upton trade, but they've drafted so poorly the past few years that it's really hurt the system. The 2010 draft probably won't produce much of anything besides Andrelton Simmons (no longer eligible for the list), 2011 looks just slightly better right now and 2009 is likely to end up producing Mike Minor and nothing else. They're not lower because they've made good trades and found value in non-traditional ways, but you can't get this little value from the draft for long without feeling it.


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[h=3]21. Washington Nationals[/h]
I love their top five prospects. There's a bottomless crevasse somewhere not far after that.


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[h=3]22. Oakland Athletics[/h]
One huge impact guy (Addison Russell), then a ton of depth guys who look like average regulars or mid-rotation starters. Their Arizona Rookie League club was stacked, though, which puts them in position to make a big move up if those guys carry it forward to low-A next year.


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[h=3]23. Colorado Rockies[/h]
They had setbacks with several major prospects this year due to injury, poor performance or other factors, although first-rounder David Dahl obliterated the rookie-level Pioneer League as one of its youngest regulars, and the team even saw signs of life from 2009 first-rounder Tyler Matzek, whose stuff has returned and who started throwing strikes again at the end of the season, including the playoffs. I was never a huge Tyler Anderson guy out of the draft, but I think he could move quickly this year and get to the majors faster than the 2012 performance would lead you to believe.


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[h=3]24. Toronto Blue Jays[/h]
A top-10 system before the big offseason trades, probably top five, but Alex Anthopoulos pushed his chips to the center of the table, stood up and said "Boo-yah!" … but in the politest way possible.


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[h=3]25. Detroit Tigers[/h]
The Tigers have given up a lot of high draft picks over the past few years to sign free agents, understandable given how well the major league team has fared but not a great way to keep a farm system afloat, especially since the new CBA limits how much the team can spend. They might see their top three prospects (Nick Castellanos, Avisail Garcia and Bruce Rondon) all contribute in the majors this year, though, and would rank near the top of systems if we were going just off potential 2013 impact.


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[h=3]26. San Francisco Giants[/h]
Several good starting pitching prospects highlight a system that's very light on bats right now. After closer Heath Hembree, the Giants don't have much that's likely to help the major league team in 2013. I could see some of their second-tier arms becoming useful trade chips for them to add a piece in July, though, so they're not without assets, just without many potential stars.


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[h=3]27. Philadelphia Phillies[/h]
Their highest-ranked prospect on my top 100 (no team was shut out entirely) is the lowest of any team's highest-ranked prospect. They do, however, have a number of intriguing, high-risk guys from low-A on down, especially on the pitching side.


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[h=3]28. Chicago White Sox[/h]
The system is improving, helped by a draft where the team opened up and looked more at prep players up top, and progress from a couple of arms already in the system, including two less-heralded pitchers from the 2011 draft (Erik Johnson and Scott Snodgress).


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[h=3]29. Milwaukee Brewers[/h]
This system has one top-100 prospect and a lot of back-end starters or probable relievers. I didn't love their draft in 2012 despite the extra picks, as they didn't manipulate their money to get any players who fell for signability reasons. They took only one player, second-rounder Tyrone Taylor, who has significant upside to become an above-average or better regular.


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[h=3]30. Los Angeles Angels[/h]
When you don't pick until the third round and then trade three prospects for Zack Greinke, this is something of an inevitable consequence. They did place one player on the top 100 and have a lot of guys who project as big leaguers, but more as role players than everyday guys or better. First baseman C.J. Cron didn't make my top 100, but if he can stay healthy and remain at first base, he could break into impact status.
 

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Closer Chart

Updated: February 4, 2013, 12:20 PM ET

[h=4]Fantasy bullpen organization chart (last updated February 4)[/h]The chart below breaks down all 30 major-league teams' bullpens in terms of relievers' proximity to the closer role, not their overall fantasy value. Teams are listed in alphabetical order.
"Closer" is either that team's officially designated closer, or the pitcher most likely to get the team's next save chance. "Next in line" is the pitcher next-most likely to take over if something happens to the closer, or the one who might get any save chances on the closer's nights off. "Stealth" is a dark-horse candidate for saves, for those digging deep. These pitchers typically don't pose an imminent threat to the closer's job security, but might, given time. "Looming" is a pitcher who has his sights set on the closer role but whose circumstances might currently prevent him from doing so. Generally speaking, usual closers who are on hurt and/or on the disabled list (designated as "Inj." or "DL"), bereavement list ("BL") or restricted list ("RL"), closer-worthy pitchers currently working out of the rotation, specialists (especially lefties) or "next in line" options presently in the minors fit the description.
Prominent free agents: Francisco Cordero, Jon Rauch, Francisco Rodriguez, Jose Valverde, Brian Wilson.
Team <center> Closer </center><center> Next in line </center><center> Stealth </center><center> Looming </center>
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J.J. Putz David Hernandez Heath Bell Brad Ziegler
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Craig Kimbrel Jonny Venters Jordan Walden Eric O'Flaherty
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Jim Johnson Pedro Strop Tommy Hunter Darren O'Day
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Joel Hanrahan Andrew Bailey Koji Uehara Daniel Bard
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Carlos Marmol Kyuji Fujikawa James Russell Arodys Vizcaino
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Addison Reed Matt Thornton Jesse Crain Nate Jones
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Jonathan Broxton Sean Marshall J.J. Hoover Jose Arredondo
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Chris Perez Vinnie Pestano Matt Albers Matt Capps
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Rafael Betancourt Rex Brothers Wilton Lopez Matt Belisle
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Bruce Rondon Phil Coke Joaquin Benoit Octavio Dotel
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Jose Veras Wesley Wright Fernando Rodriguez Jarred Cosart
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Greg Holland Aaron Crow Tim Collins Kelvin Herrera
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Ryan Madson Ernesto Frieri Scott Downs Kevin Jepsen
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Brandon League Kenley Jansen Ronald Belisario Javy Guerra
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Steve Cishek Mike Dunn Ryan Webb Jose Ceda
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John Axford Mike Gonzalez Jim Henderson Fautino De Los Santos
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Glen Perkins Jared Burton Alex Burnett Josh Roenicke
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Frank Francisco Bobby Parnell Josh Edgin Jenrry Mejia
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Mariano Rivera David Robertson Joba Chamberlain David Aardsma
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Grant Balfour Ryan Cook Sean Doolittle Pat Neshek
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Jonathan Papelbon Mike Adams Phillippe Aumont Antonio Bastardo
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Jason Grilli Mark Melancon Jared Hughes Tony Watson
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Jason Motte Edward Mujica Mitchell Boggs Fernando Salas
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Huston Street Luke Gregerson Dale Thayer Andrew Cashner
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Sergio Romo Javier Lopez Santiago Casilla Heath Hembree
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Tom Wilhelmsen Stephen Pryor Lucas Luetge Carter Capps
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Fernando Rodney Joel Peralta Jake McGee Chris Archer
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Joe Nathan Jason Frasor Tanner Scheppers Joakim Soria
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Casey Janssen Sergio Santos Steve Delabar Esmil Rogers
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Rafael Soriano Drew Storen Tyler Clippard Christian Garcia

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hacheman@therx.com
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[h=1]Top 100 prospects of 2013[/h][h=3]With Harper and Trout gone, we have some new names at the top[/h]By Keith Law | ESPN Insider

Welcome to the 2013 ESPN Insider ranking of the top 100 prospects in baseball.
This is the sixth year I have done these rankings for ESPN, with Mike Trout topping the list the previous two years. With him and Bryce Harper now entrenched in the majors, there is plenty of turnover at the top of this list.


[h=4]Top 100 prospects[/h]
RankNamePosTeamHtWt
1Jurickson ProfarSSTEX5-11165
2Oscar TaverasOFSTL6-2180
3Dylan BundyRHPBAL6-1195
4Wil MyersOFTB6-3190
5Xander BogaertsSSBOS6-3175
6Christian YelichOFMIA6-4189
7Francisco LindorSSCLE5-11175
8Gerrit ColeRHPPIT6-4215
9Taijuan WalkerRHPSEA6-4195
10Addison RussellSSOAK6-0185
11Miguel Sano3BMIN6-3195
12Tyler SkaggsLHPARI6-4195
13Zack WheelerRHPNYM6-3180
14Travis d'ArnaudCNYM6-2195
15Mike ZuninoCSEA6-2220
16Jose FernandezRHPMIA6-2220
17Anthony Rendon3BWAS5-11170
18Gary SanchezCNYY6-2195
19Aaron SanchezRHPTOR6-4190
20Jameson TaillonRHPPIT6-6225
21Shelby MillerRHPSTL6-3195
22Byron BuxtonCFMIN6-1188
23Kaleb Cowart3BLAA6-3190
24Carlos CorreaSSHOU6-4190
25Trevor BauerRHPCLE6-1185
26Kevin GausmanRHPBAL6-4185
27Kyle ZimmerRHPKC6-3215
28Julio TeheranRHPATL6-2150
29Archie BradleyRHPARI6-4225
30Billy HamiltonCFCIN6-1160
31Javier BaezSSCHC6-1205
32Jonathan Singleton1BHOU6-2215
33Albert AlmoraOFCHC6-1170
34Alen HansonSSPIT5-11152
35Mason WilliamsOFNYY6-0150
36Austin HedgesCSD6-1190
37David DahlOFCOL6-2185
38Nick Castellanos3B/RFDET6-4210
39Carlos MartinezRHPSTL6-0165
40Jackie Bradley Jr.CFBOS5-10180
41Kyle GibsonRHPMIN6-6210
42Jorge SolerOFCHC6-3205
43George SpringerCFHOU6-4205
44Brian GoodwinCFWAS6-0190
45Bubba StarlingOFKC6-4180
46Corey SeagerSSLAD6-3195
47Taylor GuerrieriRHPTB6-3195
48Robert StephensonRHPCIN6-2190
49Aaron HicksCFMIN6-2185
50Jonathan SchoopSSBAL6-1187
51Max FriedLHPSD6-4185
52Tyler AustinOFNYY6-2200
53Chris ArcherRHPTB6-3180
54Rymer LirianoOFSD6-0211
55Gregory PolancoCFPIT6-4170
56Dorssys PaulinoSSCLE6-0175
57Slade HeathcottCFNYY6-1190
58Trevor RosenthalRHPSTL6-2190
59Oswaldo ArciaOFMIN6-0210
60Casey KellyRHPSD6-3195
61Alex MeyerRHPMIN6-7205
62Justin NicolinoLHPMIA6-3160
63Allen WebsterRHPBOS6-3185
64Arodys VizcainoRHPCHC6-0189
65Eddie Rosario2B/CFMIN6-0170
66Danny HultzenLHPSEA6-3200
67Zach LeeRHPLAD6-4190
68Jake OdorizziRHPTB6-2175
69Nick FranklinSSSEA6-1170
70Jedd Gyorko3BSD5-10195
71Mike Olt3BTEX6-2215
72Daniel CorcinoRHPCIN5-11165
73Wily PeraltaRHPMIL6-2225
74Courtney HawkinsOFCWS6-3220
75Matt Davidson3BARI6-3225
76Kyle CrickRHPSF6-4220
77Lucas GiolitoRHPWAS6-6225
78Hak-Ju LeeSSTB6-2170
79Matt BarnesRHPBOS6-4205
80Clayton BlackburnRHPSF6-3220
81Alex ColomeRHPTB6-2185
82Jake MarisnickCFMIA6-4200
83Delino DeShields Jr.2BHOU5-9188
84Luis HerediaRHPPIT6-6205
85Trevor StorySSCOL6-1175
86Jarred CosartRHPHOU6-3180
87Roberto OsunaRHPTOR6-2230
88Joe RossRHPSD6-3185
89A.J. ColeRHPWAS6-4180
90Cody BuckelRHPTEX6-0170
91Adam EatonCFARI6-2190
92Adam MorganLHPPHI6-1195
93Martin PerezLHPTEX6-0178
94J.R. GrahamRHPATL6-0185
95Jesse BiddleLHPPHI6-4225
96Kolten Wong2BSTL5-9180
97Noah SyndergaardRHPNYM6-5200
98Tony CingraniLHPCIN6-4200
99Nathan KarnsRHPWAS6-5230
100Eduardo RodriguezLHPBAL6-2175

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[h=1]10 prospects who just missed[/h][h=3]Promising prospects who came up just a little bit shy of the top 100 list[/h]By Keith Law | ESPN Insider

Every year I do the top 100 list, I start out with long lists of names for each club, then winnow those to 10 per team, and then pull about 120 or so names from those lists to create the master ranking of the top 100 prospects. Names move around as I go through reports and video and circulate my list to sources I trust in the industry. Inevitably, guys I like for one reason or another just miss the final cut.

Here are 10 more guys who earned strong consideration for the main list but didn't make it. They're presented in rough descending order, so it's fair to assume that the first guy listed here, Henry Owens, was No. 101.

bos.gif


Henry Owens, LHP
Age: 19
Top 2012 level: A (Greeneville)
Key stat: 11.5 K/9

Owens works at just 88-92 mph with a big, slow curveball and some feel for a change, but has posted high strikeout totals in the low minors because he hides the ball so well behind his 6-foot-6 frame that hitters don't pick it up, swinging through 88 mph like it's 94 mph. That can work for guys in the big leagues, but I'd like to see Owens, who doesn't have a ton of projection for future velocity gains, do it against a higher caliber of hitter before buying in fully.
<offer></offer>


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Yordano Ventura, RHP
Age: 21
Top 2012 level: AA (Northwest Arkansas)
Key stat: 10.7 K/9

Ventura started the 2012 Futures Game for the World Team, and last season was full of positives for his evolution from thrower to pitcher. He can miss a lot of bats with his overpowering fastball, but his breaking ball is very inconsistent and his changeup, while promising, is still rudimentary. He could be an impact starter, but both off-speed pitches have to improve quite a bit before that can happen.


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Jose Ramirez, RHP
Age: 23
Top 2012 level: A (Tampa)
Key stat: 3.19 ERA

Ramirez has been on the fringes of the prospect map for ages -- he was my sleeper prospect for the Yankees' system in 2010 -- but injuries have limited him to fewer than 120 innings in each of the past three season. He's filled out quite a bit in the past three years, with more than 200 pounds on his 6-3 frame, and will work at 94-98 mph with big-time life and a hard mid-80s slider. He's off the top 100 because of all the injuries, missing time each of the past two years with elbow trouble and in 2010 with shoulder inflammation.


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Jose Ramirez, 2B
Age: 20
Top 2012 level: A (Lake County)
Key stat: .869 OPS

Ramirez, who is no relation to the Yankees pitcher above, is a natural shortstop who played second this year for Lake County because Francisco Lindor was on the team, although Ramirez' best position in the long run might be second base anyway. He's got the hit tool already, with good hand-eye and a mature approach at the plate, as well as above-average running speed. He stands just 5-9 and is not going to hit for power, so he'll need to keep those high contact rates and batting averages as he moves up and plays a full season in 2013.


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Robbie Grossman, LF
Age: 23
Top 2012 level: AA (Corpus Christi)
Key stat: .376 OBP

There's a strong feeling that Grossman won't profile as an everyday left fielder because he won't hit for the kind of power required for the position. I'm a little more sanguine about Grossman's approach, that he'll get on base enough to make himself an average or better regular, even if his production doesn't have the typical shape for that position.


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Jeimer Candelario, 3B
Age: 19
Top 2012 level: A (Boise)
Key stat: .741 OPS

He's an offensive third baseman with great rhythm at the plate and a smooth swing, showing just enough to make you think he can stay at third base. I'd just like to see the offensive skill set translate into a little more performance before buying in all the way, because the defense will never be a plus. If you squint, you might see a Pablo Sandoval future here.


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Carlos Sanchez, IF
Age: 20
Top 2012 level: AAA (Charlotte)
Key stat: .323 AVG

Sanchez has bolted through the system -- he was still in the Dominican Summer League in 2010, and finished last year in Triple-A. I think he's a second baseman in the long run, but he's not useless at shortstop, and in another era he might have been a true "super-utility guy" who played 150 games but did so at multiple positions.

He's off the main list because I don't think he profiles as an above-average regular anywhere -- the defense at short isn't enough to make him an everyday guy, and while I think he'll hit .300, I don't think he has the power to be a star elsewhere. All that aside, though, I do like him as a second baseman with high probability to hit.


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Brandon Maurer, RHP
Age: 22
Top 2012 level: AA (Jackson)
Key stat: 3.20 ERA

He's a four-pitch starter who'll touch 95 mph and he flashes a plus curveball, but has had a lot of injury trouble and doesn't have all four pitches every time out. He works down in the zone and is very aggressive, mixing all his pitches and generating some bad swings. He missed the top 100 because despite the stuff, he's neither a ground ball guy nor a strikeout guy, and his 137 innings in 2012 were more than he'd thrown in the previous two years combined.


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Sonny Gray, RHP
Age: 23
Top 2012 level: AAA (Sacramento)
Key stat: 0.5 HR/9

Like Grossman, Gray dropped off the top 100 this year because of questions about his ceiling. The A's worked with Gray on taking a little off his fastball, which would sit in the mid-90s but lacked sink or life, so he could generate more ground balls, which he did, but the tradeoff was that he missed a lot fewer bats, striking out fewer than six per nine inning in 2012.

He'll also need to keep working on that changeup to be more effective against left-handed hitters. He has the athleticism and makeup to start, and can hold his velocity, but has to miss more bats or he'll end up a (very good) reliever instead.


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Brandon Nimmo, OF
Age: 19
Top 2012 level: A (Brooklyn)
Key stat: .372 OBP

Nimmo played in short-season ball last year at age 19, but given his limited baseball experience -- his Wyoming high school didn't have a team, so he played on an American Legion club instead -- the Mets were justified in taking it slow with him, and he showed some real positives, especially his plate discipline and his ability to handle center field.

Lefties ate him alive (.594 OPS against), and he faded badly at the end of the summer, while it still remains to be seen how the ACL in his right knee -- which he blew out playing high school football -- will handle a full 140-game minor league season.
 

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What to expect from sophomore class
in.gif


Eric Karabell

Thirteen players received Rookie of the Year votes (across both leagues) following the 2012 season, and to varying degrees, those players will be under the microscope this season. Of course everyone wants to see how Los Angeles Angels outfielder Mike Trout and Washington Nationals outfielder Bryce Harper will fare, and many rookies did not get ROY votes, most notably two of the more attractive but ultimately disappointing fantasy options from 2012 drafts in Kansas City Royals first baseman Eric Hosmer and Toronto Blue Jays third baseman Brett Lawrie.

I happen to think Trout will regress only slightly in power and batting average yet remain the best fantasy option in the land, Harper will emerge as a top-20 player and Hosmer and Lawrie will both realize the vast potential many expected, but here are my thoughts on the other rookies that were given votes -- this list might surprise you! -- as they become sophomores.
Yonder Alonso, 1B, San Diego Padres: He's not a top-20 first baseman yet, not unless he doubles his home run output, which seems unlikely even with the Petco Park fence adjustment. Alonso takes walks and should be safe in batting average, but when a 30-homer, 100-RBI guy such as Adam LaRoche can barely crack our top-20 first basemen, Alonso has little chance. Let's hope for 15 homers and 80 RBIs. Bottom line: Not worth it in standard formats.


Norichika Aoki, OF, Milwaukee Brewers: Already on the wrong side of 30 years old, Aoki was one of only nine outfielders to reach 30 stolen bases and double-digit home runs, and there's little reason to think it was a fluke. Aoki should hit leadoff for a strong lineup, and there's modest upside for more power and speed. I could see 15 home runs and 35 steals, at a bargain draft-day price. Bottom line: Underrated as a fifth fantasy outfielder.

Matt Carpenter, 1B/3B/OF, St. Louis Cardinals: An on-base machine through the minors, Carpenter isn't likely to hit for much power, but he'd certainly become more attractive for fantasy owners if the team uses him at second base. Remember, this is the franchise that let Allen Craig play the position on occasion in 2011. Carpenter should hit .300 and could reach double-digit home runs with 400 at-bats. Bottom line: Even without middle infield eligibility, he's a nice $1-3 choice in NL-only formats.

Yoenis Cespedes, OF, Oakland Athletics: It's hard not to like a 23-homer, 16-steal rookie campaign, but among the concerns are his durability and whether he'll continue to run. The skills are certainly there for 30 home runs and 25 steals, but it feels like he could get overrated quickly. Bottom line: Doesn't crack my overall top 50, but after that there's value.

Wei-Yin Chen, SP, Baltimore Orioles: Not to be negative, but it's hard to see Baltimore's pitching staff being nearly as effective this season, and Chen seems to have already hit his statistical ceiling. Don't pay for last year's numbers, which included a 3.92 ERA against AL East foes. It should rise. Bottom line: Not among my top 75 starting pitchers.


Yu Darvish, SP, Texas Rangers: A rookie in name only; like Chen, Darvish dominated for years in another land. But the difference is Darvish could lead the majors in strikeouts. No, really. He was seventh last year. He tamed his walk rate in the second half, and just look at his September (2.21 ERA, 0.73 WHIP). Watch out! Bottom line: Top-10 pitcher, still has more upside left.

Todd Frazier, 1B/3B, Cincinnati Reds: We won't have to worry about Scott Rolen blocking his path anymore, but keep your expectations for him in line. I worry about Frazier, who was on my sleeper list a year ago, struggling against right-handed pitching. It doesn't mean he can't have a Casey McGehee-like 2010 season for power, but be prepared for something more like .250-20-80. Bottom line: Top-20 third baseman, but perhaps a bit overrated.

Wade Miley, SP, Arizona Diamondbacks: Even if you set aside his fancy 16 wins, Miley still had a nice campaign, particularly in his ability to avoid home runs and walks. There's likely some regression coming, but a 200-inning starter with a usable strikeout rate and no fear of a hitter-friendly home ballpark is worth something. Bottom line: Second-half numbers (3.64 ERA, 1.27 WHIP) seem more like what we should expect from him, but still a top-50 starting pitcher.

Jordan Pacheco, 1B/3B, Colorado Rockies: A year ago, it seemed prospect Nolan Arenado would take over third base duties for the Rockies early in the season, but it never happened. For now, Pacheco stands to share the spot with others, but keep an eye on him qualifying at catcher. Pacheco did play five games behind the plate in 2012, and since his ability to hit for a .300 batting average seems sustainable, that matters. It'd sure be nice if he had a little more power, though. Bottom line: Not worth much unless he's catcher-eligible, and even there he wouldn't crack the top 15.

Jarrod Parker, SP, Athletics: The instant he was the centerpiece of the trade for veteran Trevor Cahill, I theorized Parker would have the better fantasy season, and he surely did. The 2007 first-rounder is healthy and gets to play half his games in a mammoth ballpark, where he took advantage (2.61 home ERA, 4.54 road ERA). He's not likely to be a future ace, but he improved his command in the second half, and there is strikeout upside. Bottom line: I'd take him over Miley, for 2013 and beyond.

Wilin Rosario, C, Rockies: And here's the actual starting backstop for the Rockies, and his rookie season was tremendous; he posted a position-leading 28 home runs and a strong .270 batting average. After the All-Star break, Rosario hit .291! Sure, like most Rockies hitters, he did the bulk of his work in home games, but in full-season leagues, that's irrelevant. Bottom line: Clear top-10 catcher, but should hit closer to .250, so be a bit wary.
 

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Surprising position eligibility for 2013

By Tristan H. Cockcroft | ESPN.com

Roster construction in fantasy baseball is like piecing together a puzzle.

Every player -- each piece -- has a value defined by his statistical output; but it's fitting these pieces into your roster's required slots that is key. Like those puzzle pieces, some players fit in certain spots but not others. And some spots -- like bonuses on a Scrabble board -- are more valuable than others.

Ah, but there's a wrinkle to this proverbial puzzle: In fantasy baseball, these pieces can shift and change shape. Players change positions all the time, and keeping up with where a player qualifies is an important first step to your draft-day research.

Think position eligibility is overrated? Think again. While it's true that some fantasy owners go overboard -- Hanley Ramirez does not belong in the first round any longer just because he's shortstop-eligible -- the truth is that a player's value can shift by as many as $6-7 in an auction format, or as many as five rounds in a draft, simply based on his position eligibility.

Let's let the numbers do the talking. The chart below measures the 2012 major league averages from each of the eligible positions in traditional fantasy baseball leagues to illustrate how each compared. Home runs, RBIs, stolen bases and runs scored are averages per 650 plate appearances.


<style type="text/css">.mod-inline td img {margin: 0px;}</style>
Pos.

<center>HR</center>

<center>RBI</center>

<center>SB</center>

<center>R</center>

<center>BA</center>

<center>OBP</center>

<center>SLG</center>

<center>OPS</center>
C
19.1
75.0
3.0
66.9
.248
.318
.400
.718
1B
22.8
83.2
4.2
74.9
.262
.336
.442
.778
2B
12.3
61.0
13.4
75.1
.257
.318
.383
.701
3B
19.3
79.5
7.1
74.1
.266
.327
.427
.754
SS
11.6
58.4
15.3
71.4
.257
.310
.378
.688
OF
19.0
71.2
15.7
82.0
.263
.328
.428
.756
DH
22.9
83.3
6.2
74.9
.255
.326
.428
.754

<tbody>
</tbody>



A side note: Keep in mind that the DH numbers, specifically the home runs and RBIs, shouldn't be taken too seriously due to the sample size. They came in a considerably smaller number of plate appearances -- nearly 10,000 fewer than were accrued by any other position -- and they, as with all these positions, only account for performance by players while they were slotted in the lineup at that spot.

Clearly, catcher, second base and shortstop were the three weakest positions in 2012, as any fantasy owner would expect. First base, third base and outfield (look at those steals!) were the strongest, predictably.

Make sure, therefore, to check every player's eligibility in advance of your draft. As the story I'll outline in a minute shows, you might be surprised by some players' 2013 position eligibility. The following players might be the most unexpected:

Edwin Encarnacion, Toronto Blue Jays -- 1B-only

His was the discussion that started it all; it was the revelation in a sim league of mine in early January that Encarnacion was no longer eligible at third base that kick-started the idea for this column. In that league, which begins its annual draft the day after New Year's, two owners came to the realization after we were underway that Encarnacion lacked the requisite games to be used at the hot corner. One of these owners was on the verge of drafting him assuming he could use Encarnacion at third base; the owner would have been sorely disappointed to learn that he'd have been forced to bench either Encarnacion or Paul Goldschmidt if not warned beforehand.

After playing 663 of his 690 games in the field through 2011 at third base, Encarnacion appeared there just once in 2012, compared to 82 times at designated hitter and 68 times at first base. And with a 23-year-old Brett Lawrie firmly entrenched at third, Encarnacion's chances at reaching even the 10-game, in-season threshold at the position are slim.

That's not to say that the loss of third base eligibility significantly depresses his 2013 value. As the chart above shows, the primary difference between first and third base is three home runs and four RBIs, at least as positional averages go. Still, that's potentially $1-2 in auction value and there's little question that a first-and-third eligible player is more valuable than a first base-only player.

Jurickson Profar, Texas Rangers -- 2B-only

Keith Law's -- and, frankly, the world's -- top overall prospect for 2013 snuck in curious position eligibility, using the "most games played in the majors" rule from the old rotisserie handbook: He appeared in five games at second base, compared to three at his natural shortstop position. That cements his initial ESPN eligibility at second base, the second-thinnest position to catcher by my calculations in terms of value relative to replacement in standard leagues, and it presents an added benefit: He could conceivably play shortstop regularly if he's promoted in-season, earning dual eligibility at the second- and third-weakest fantasy positions.

But that assumes Profar makes the team. He's currently blocked at shortstop by Elvis Andrus, who played 153 games and 92 percent of the Rangers' innings at the position in 2012, and he's stymied at second base by Ian Kinsler, who has played 288 games and 88 percent of the team's innings there the past two seasons combined.

Mike Olt, Texas Rangers -- 1B-only

While we're talking about one Rangers prospect, we might as well talk about the other. Olt, a natural third baseman, played his most games at first base: 8 (compared to only five at third). Like Profar, Olt isn't especially likely to make the team's Opening Day roster, and it might take an Adrian Beltre injury for him to be promoted and appear frequently enough at third base to qualify there in-season. Olt has a shot at time at first base or designated hitter, however, considering the injury history of Lance Berkman or the platoon limitation of Mitch Moreland.

Emilio Bonifacio, Toronto Blue Jays -- OF-only

Bonifacio is the player whose eligibility might shock you most; the only reason he's not first on this list is that he's not as attractive a draft target as, well, Encarnacion. Still, there's a buzz surrounding the Blue Jays following all their winter moves, and Bonifacio is an intriguing mid-to-late rounder even in shallow mixed leagues because of his speed and the possibility he might occasionally occupy a top-two spot in the team's retooled lineup. What fantasy owners should not do, however, is allow Blue Jay buzz to fool them into thinking that Bonifacio is eligible anywhere in the infield [e] at least not at the start of the season. He didn't make a single appearance in 2012 at either third base or shortstop, which were eligible positions of his on draft day, and he made only 15 appearances at second base.

Second base is Bonifacio's most probable in-season eligibility addition for 2013. He's slated to see the majority of his time there, though he'll need to fend off Maicer Izturis to win the starting job. Doing so would be key; with second base eligibility, Bonifacio might add as much as $4 to his auction value or vault him as many as three rounds in draft rankings. The Blue Jays might also regard him a super-utility type, a kind of modern-day Tony Phillips, in which case he might earn as diverse eligibility as what he had at the conclusion of 2012.

Chris Davis, Baltimore Orioles -- 1B and OF

Third base eligibility was always a welcome bonus in those of his five big-league seasons in which Davis had it -- that's to begin 2009 and to begin 2011, using traditional rotisserie rules -- but 2012 marked the first year in which he didn't play a single game there. Heck, he played more games as a pitcher -- and even recorded a win in that role -- than at the hot corner. That only matters here because Davis, always the all-or-nothing, low-average slugger, finally realized his potential in 2013, meaning third base eligibility would be a welcome addition. Davis is highly unlikely to earn it in-season, however, needing to root for a collapse and subsequent demotion of 20-year-old phenom Manny Machado, and the Orioles not to then turn the position over to Wilson Betemit.

Manny Machado, Baltimore Orioles -- 3B-only

Speaking of Machado, he'll begin 2013 as a third baseman, and considering the Orioles are on the hook for $14 million and two seasons more of shortstop J.J. Hardy, Machado will presumably end 2013 a third baseman, too. The kid was a machine in his first extended taste at the position, playing every inning there (postseason included) following his promotion, and posting a 4.5 UZR and 7 Defensive Runs Saved. Machado might be a top-10 shortstop if only he qualified there -- his projected 2013 numbers aren't terribly far off Danny Espinosa's -- and his long-term future might yet be at that spot. But only keeper-league owners can bank on that, and if Machado continues to perform defensively at third base, it's not unthinkable he'll remain there beyond the expiration of Hardy's deal.

Jose Bautista, Toronto Blue Jays -- OF-only

What is it with the Blue Jays and unexpected fantasy position eligibility? Did people just stop paying attention to them when they lost 46 of 76 games while averaging 3.76 runs per contest after the All-Star break last season? Bautista appeared in only one game at third base in 2012, playing four innings, meaning he'll begin -- and presumably end, again pointing out Lawrie's presence -- 2013 as an outfielder in most every fantasy league. It's somewhat appropriate; fantasy owners might not realize that he has actually played more games in the outfield than at third base in each of the past four seasons, averaging only 33 games at third from 2009-11.

Oddly enough, Bautista's value relative to replacement in the outfield is actually greater than it is at third base, but the difference is negligible. The knock on him is that, considering the injury risk involved with drafting him, he'd be a bit more attractive as a dual-qualifier, as he was in each of the past three years.

Trevor Plouffe, Minnesota Twins -- 3B-only

Plouffe began the 2012 season only shortstop-eligible, but he ended the year adding third base and the outfield. He's now only a third baseman; he made 17 appearances in the outfield, four at second base, three at first base and one at shortstop. Losing shortstop eligibility is quite a hit, as it's as much as a $3 loss in auction value and perhaps two rounds in the draft, considering value relative to replacement. Frankly, Plouffe is scarcely even a draft consideration in ESPN standard leagues as a third baseman, but he'd almost assuredly be picked as a shortstop.

Mark Reynolds, Cleveland Indians -- 1B-only

Reynolds has the third-worst batting average the past three seasons combined (.213) among players with at least 1,000 plate appearances, and now he's eligible only at the position with the highest replacement level: First base. Ask yourself: Can you stomach that kind of hit in the category, considering we've got 11 batting title-eligible players at the position projected to bat at least .290? Reynolds did make 15 appearances at third base and could split up his time between the two positions for the Indians, but don't forget that this is a younger team that might want Lonnie Chisenhall locked in regularly at the hot corner. Considering Reynolds' penchant for streakiness, he looks a lot more like an in-season, ride-the-streak pickup than a player you draft to fill your first base slot.

Other notable, yet probably expected, position changes


Yonder Alonso, San Diego Padres -- 1B-only, loses OF
Miguel Cabrera, Detroit Tigers -- 3B-only, loses 1B
Josh Donaldson, Oakland Athletics -- 3B-only, loses C
Mat Gamel, Milwaukee Brewers -- 1B-only, loses 3B
Adrian Gonzalez, Los Angeles Dodgers -- 1B-only, loses OF
Michael Morse, Seattle Mariners -- OF-only, loses 1B
Martin Prado, Arizona Diamondbacks -- OF/3B, loses 2B/SS
Kyle Seager, Seattle Mariners -- 3B-only, loses 2B
Michael Young, Philadelphia Phillies -- 1B/3B, loses 2B

Position eligibility you know, and surely love

Ben Zobrist, Tampa Bay Rays -- eligible at SS (as well as 2B/OF)
Zobrist didn't merely just qualify at shortstop; he made 47 appearances there, including each of his final 27 starts of 2012. It's that three-position eligibility that drove him up our rankings -- he's currently 55th -- as second base and then shortstop are, as mentioned above, the second- and third-weakest positions. To put his value into perspective, if Zobrist was only eligible in the outfield, he'd probably be worth $5-6 less in auctions and rank as many as 4-5 rounds lower (think approximately 100th). And while the Rays have Kelly Johnson and Yunel Escobar penciled in at second base and shortstop, Zobrist is a superior player to either and could sneak in enough time in 2013 to repeat his eligibility in a year.

Victor Martinez, Detroit Tigers -- eligible at C

After a season lost to a knee injury, Martinez's value was already in question, so it's a major plus that he's catcher-eligible entering 2013, rather than only at designated hitter, the only position he's projected to play in-season. Catcher has the lowest replacement level of any of the seven fantasy positions, and in terms of average performance by the position in the chart above, it's easily one of the three weakest. Banking on Martinez as your catcher makes a lot more sense than as your DH; he might be worth $2-3 or three rounds less if he was DH-only.

One note about catchers: Remember that a replacement-level catcher is going to accrue fewer plate appearances than a replacement-level player anywhere else; that is the primary reason that catcher's replacement level is the lowest. For example, the Nos. 11-15 catchers on our 2012 Player Rater averaged 478 plate appearances, while the Nos. 11-15 first basemen averaged 603. And if you consider that a catcher-eligible player who plays a less-taxing position might be more capable of playing every day, Martinez's value gets an additional boost. To that end, the five highest-ranked catchers on our Player Rater who played at least 20 games at another position -- Buster Posey, Joe Mauer, Ryan Doumit, Carlos Santana and Jesus Montero -- averaged 588 plate appearances.

Danny Espinosa, Washington Nationals -- eligible at SS (as well as 2B)

Few players boast the attractive combination of both second base and shortstop eligibility -- the aforementioned Zobrist and Marco Scutaro comprising the three most meaningful -- but Espinosa's dual eligibility mitigates concerns about his free-swinging ways. Knowing that he can be freely shifted between these weak spots, maximizing the impact of his power and speed, is a plus. Of course, he has to perform well enough to keep his job.
 

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Surprising position eligibility for 2013

By Tristan H. Cockcroft | ESPN.com

Roster construction in fantasy baseball is like piecing together a puzzle.

Every player -- each piece -- has a value defined by his statistical output; but it's fitting these pieces into your roster's required slots that is key. Like those puzzle pieces, some players fit in certain spots but not others. And some spots -- like bonuses on a Scrabble board -- are more valuable than others.

Ah, but there's a wrinkle to this proverbial puzzle: In fantasy baseball, these pieces can shift and change shape. Players change positions all the time, and keeping up with where a player qualifies is an important first step to your draft-day research.

Think position eligibility is overrated? Think again. While it's true that some fantasy owners go overboard -- Hanley Ramirez does not belong in the first round any longer just because he's shortstop-eligible -- the truth is that a player's value can shift by as many as $6-7 in an auction format, or as many as five rounds in a draft, simply based on his position eligibility.

Let's let the numbers do the talking. The chart below measures the 2012 major league averages from each of the eligible positions in traditional fantasy baseball leagues to illustrate how each compared. Home runs, RBIs, stolen bases and runs scored are averages per 650 plate appearances.


<style type="text/css">.mod-inline td img {margin: 0px;}</style>
Pos.<center>HR</center><center>RBI</center><center>SB</center><center>R</center><center>BA</center><center>OBP</center><center>SLG</center><center>OPS</center>
C19.175.03.066.9.248.318.400.718
1B22.883.24.274.9.262.336.442.778
2B12.361.013.475.1.257.318.383.701
3B19.379.57.174.1.266.327.427.754
SS11.658.415.371.4.257.310.378.688
OF19.071.215.782.0.263.328.428.756
DH22.983.36.274.9.255.326.428.754

<thead>
</thead><tbody>
</tbody>



A side note: Keep in mind that the DH numbers, specifically the home runs and RBIs, shouldn't be taken too seriously due to the sample size. They came in a considerably smaller number of plate appearances -- nearly 10,000 fewer than were accrued by any other position -- and they, as with all these positions, only account for performance by players while they were slotted in the lineup at that spot.

Clearly, catcher, second base and shortstop were the three weakest positions in 2012, as any fantasy owner would expect. First base, third base and outfield (look at those steals!) were the strongest, predictably.

Make sure, therefore, to check every player's eligibility in advance of your draft. As the story I'll outline in a minute shows, you might be surprised by some players' 2013 position eligibility. The following players might be the most unexpected:

Edwin Encarnacion, Toronto Blue Jays -- 1B-only

His was the discussion that started it all; it was the revelation in a sim league of mine in early January that Encarnacion was no longer eligible at third base that kick-started the idea for this column. In that league, which begins its annual draft the day after New Year's, two owners came to the realization after we were underway that Encarnacion lacked the requisite games to be used at the hot corner. One of these owners was on the verge of drafting him assuming he could use Encarnacion at third base; the owner would have been sorely disappointed to learn that he'd have been forced to bench either Encarnacion or Paul Goldschmidt if not warned beforehand.

After playing 663 of his 690 games in the field through 2011 at third base, Encarnacion appeared there just once in 2012, compared to 82 times at designated hitter and 68 times at first base. And with a 23-year-old Brett Lawrie firmly entrenched at third, Encarnacion's chances at reaching even the 10-game, in-season threshold at the position are slim.

That's not to say that the loss of third base eligibility significantly depresses his 2013 value. As the chart above shows, the primary difference between first and third base is three home runs and four RBIs, at least as positional averages go. Still, that's potentially $1-2 in auction value and there's little question that a first-and-third eligible player is more valuable than a first base-only player.

Jurickson Profar, Texas Rangers -- 2B-only

Keith Law's -- and, frankly, the world's -- top overall prospect for 2013 snuck in curious position eligibility, using the "most games played in the majors" rule from the old rotisserie handbook: He appeared in five games at second base, compared to three at his natural shortstop position. That cements his initial ESPN eligibility at second base, the second-thinnest position to catcher by my calculations in terms of value relative to replacement in standard leagues, and it presents an added benefit: He could conceivably play shortstop regularly if he's promoted in-season, earning dual eligibility at the second- and third-weakest fantasy positions.

But that assumes Profar makes the team. He's currently blocked at shortstop by Elvis Andrus, who played 153 games and 92 percent of the Rangers' innings at the position in 2012, and he's stymied at second base by Ian Kinsler, who has played 288 games and 88 percent of the team's innings there the past two seasons combined.

Mike Olt, Texas Rangers -- 1B-only

While we're talking about one Rangers prospect, we might as well talk about the other. Olt, a natural third baseman, played his most games at first base: 8 (compared to only five at third). Like Profar, Olt isn't especially likely to make the team's Opening Day roster, and it might take an Adrian Beltre injury for him to be promoted and appear frequently enough at third base to qualify there in-season. Olt has a shot at time at first base or designated hitter, however, considering the injury history of Lance Berkman or the platoon limitation of Mitch Moreland.

Emilio Bonifacio, Toronto Blue Jays -- OF-only

Bonifacio is the player whose eligibility might shock you most; the only reason he's not first on this list is that he's not as attractive a draft target as, well, Encarnacion. Still, there's a buzz surrounding the Blue Jays following all their winter moves, and Bonifacio is an intriguing mid-to-late rounder even in shallow mixed leagues because of his speed and the possibility he might occasionally occupy a top-two spot in the team's retooled lineup. What fantasy owners should not do, however, is allow Blue Jay buzz to fool them into thinking that Bonifacio is eligible anywhere in the infield [e] at least not at the start of the season. He didn't make a single appearance in 2012 at either third base or shortstop, which were eligible positions of his on draft day, and he made only 15 appearances at second base.

Second base is Bonifacio's most probable in-season eligibility addition for 2013. He's slated to see the majority of his time there, though he'll need to fend off Maicer Izturis to win the starting job. Doing so would be key; with second base eligibility, Bonifacio might add as much as $4 to his auction value or vault him as many as three rounds in draft rankings. The Blue Jays might also regard him a super-utility type, a kind of modern-day Tony Phillips, in which case he might earn as diverse eligibility as what he had at the conclusion of 2012.

Chris Davis, Baltimore Orioles -- 1B and OF

Third base eligibility was always a welcome bonus in those of his five big-league seasons in which Davis had it -- that's to begin 2009 and to begin 2011, using traditional rotisserie rules -- but 2012 marked the first year in which he didn't play a single game there. Heck, he played more games as a pitcher -- and even recorded a win in that role -- than at the hot corner. That only matters here because Davis, always the all-or-nothing, low-average slugger, finally realized his potential in 2013, meaning third base eligibility would be a welcome addition. Davis is highly unlikely to earn it in-season, however, needing to root for a collapse and subsequent demotion of 20-year-old phenom Manny Machado, and the Orioles not to then turn the position over to Wilson Betemit.

Manny Machado, Baltimore Orioles -- 3B-only

Speaking of Machado, he'll begin 2013 as a third baseman, and considering the Orioles are on the hook for $14 million and two seasons more of shortstop J.J. Hardy, Machado will presumably end 2013 a third baseman, too. The kid was a machine in his first extended taste at the position, playing every inning there (postseason included) following his promotion, and posting a 4.5 UZR and 7 Defensive Runs Saved. Machado might be a top-10 shortstop if only he qualified there -- his projected 2013 numbers aren't terribly far off Danny Espinosa's -- and his long-term future might yet be at that spot. But only keeper-league owners can bank on that, and if Machado continues to perform defensively at third base, it's not unthinkable he'll remain there beyond the expiration of Hardy's deal.

Jose Bautista, Toronto Blue Jays -- OF-only

What is it with the Blue Jays and unexpected fantasy position eligibility? Did people just stop paying attention to them when they lost 46 of 76 games while averaging 3.76 runs per contest after the All-Star break last season? Bautista appeared in only one game at third base in 2012, playing four innings, meaning he'll begin -- and presumably end, again pointing out Lawrie's presence -- 2013 as an outfielder in most every fantasy league. It's somewhat appropriate; fantasy owners might not realize that he has actually played more games in the outfield than at third base in each of the past four seasons, averaging only 33 games at third from 2009-11.

Oddly enough, Bautista's value relative to replacement in the outfield is actually greater than it is at third base, but the difference is negligible. The knock on him is that, considering the injury risk involved with drafting him, he'd be a bit more attractive as a dual-qualifier, as he was in each of the past three years.

Trevor Plouffe, Minnesota Twins -- 3B-only

Plouffe began the 2012 season only shortstop-eligible, but he ended the year adding third base and the outfield. He's now only a third baseman; he made 17 appearances in the outfield, four at second base, three at first base and one at shortstop. Losing shortstop eligibility is quite a hit, as it's as much as a $3 loss in auction value and perhaps two rounds in the draft, considering value relative to replacement. Frankly, Plouffe is scarcely even a draft consideration in ESPN standard leagues as a third baseman, but he'd almost assuredly be picked as a shortstop.

Mark Reynolds, Cleveland Indians -- 1B-only

Reynolds has the third-worst batting average the past three seasons combined (.213) among players with at least 1,000 plate appearances, and now he's eligible only at the position with the highest replacement level: First base. Ask yourself: Can you stomach that kind of hit in the category, considering we've got 11 batting title-eligible players at the position projected to bat at least .290? Reynolds did make 15 appearances at third base and could split up his time between the two positions for the Indians, but don't forget that this is a younger team that might want Lonnie Chisenhall locked in regularly at the hot corner. Considering Reynolds' penchant for streakiness, he looks a lot more like an in-season, ride-the-streak pickup than a player you draft to fill your first base slot.

[h=3]Other notable, yet probably expected, position changes[/h]
Yonder Alonso, San Diego Padres -- 1B-only, loses OF
Miguel Cabrera, Detroit Tigers -- 3B-only, loses 1B
Josh Donaldson, Oakland Athletics -- 3B-only, loses C
Mat Gamel, Milwaukee Brewers -- 1B-only, loses 3B
Adrian Gonzalez, Los Angeles Dodgers -- 1B-only, loses OF
Michael Morse, Seattle Mariners -- OF-only, loses 1B
Martin Prado, Arizona Diamondbacks -- OF/3B, loses 2B/SS
Kyle Seager, Seattle Mariners -- 3B-only, loses 2B
Michael Young, Philadelphia Phillies -- 1B/3B, loses 2B

[h=3]Position eligibility you know, and surely love[/h]
Ben Zobrist, Tampa Bay Rays -- eligible at SS (as well as 2B/OF)
Zobrist didn't merely just qualify at shortstop; he made 47 appearances there, including each of his final 27 starts of 2012. It's that three-position eligibility that drove him up our rankings -- he's currently 55th -- as second base and then shortstop are, as mentioned above, the second- and third-weakest positions. To put his value into perspective, if Zobrist was only eligible in the outfield, he'd probably be worth $5-6 less in auctions and rank as many as 4-5 rounds lower (think approximately 100th). And while the Rays have Kelly Johnson and Yunel Escobar penciled in at second base and shortstop, Zobrist is a superior player to either and could sneak in enough time in 2013 to repeat his eligibility in a year.

Victor Martinez, Detroit Tigers -- eligible at C

After a season lost to a knee injury, Martinez's value was already in question, so it's a major plus that he's catcher-eligible entering 2013, rather than only at designated hitter, the only position he's projected to play in-season. Catcher has the lowest replacement level of any of the seven fantasy positions, and in terms of average performance by the position in the chart above, it's easily one of the three weakest. Banking on Martinez as your catcher makes a lot more sense than as your DH; he might be worth $2-3 or three rounds less if he was DH-only.

One note about catchers: Remember that a replacement-level catcher is going to accrue fewer plate appearances than a replacement-level player anywhere else; that is the primary reason that catcher's replacement level is the lowest. For example, the Nos. 11-15 catchers on our 2012 Player Rater averaged 478 plate appearances, while the Nos. 11-15 first basemen averaged 603. And if you consider that a catcher-eligible player who plays a less-taxing position might be more capable of playing every day, Martinez's value gets an additional boost. To that end, the five highest-ranked catchers on our Player Rater who played at least 20 games at another position -- Buster Posey, Joe Mauer, Ryan Doumit, Carlos Santana and Jesus Montero -- averaged 588 plate appearances.

Danny Espinosa, Washington Nationals -- eligible at SS (as well as 2B)

Few players boast the attractive combination of both second base and shortstop eligibility -- the aforementioned Zobrist and Marco Scutaro comprising the three most meaningful -- but Espinosa's dual eligibility mitigates concerns about his free-swinging ways. Knowing that he can be freely shifted between these weak spots, maximizing the impact of his power and speed, is a plus. Of course, he has to perform well enough to keep his job.
 

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Hitters whose values have fallen too far
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Eric Karabell

The list of players whose 2013 fantasy draft stock will look a whole lot different from a year ago is long, but in many cases way too reactionary. With San Francisco Giants outfielder Hunter Pence, a player I felt had been a bit overrated for fantasy circles -- and frankly, after watching him regularly, in real life -- his stock is likely to fall a bit too far. This is a player whose 2012 ADP (Average Draft Position) in ESPN live drafts was No. 42, ahead of Jay Bruce, Zack Greinke, David Price and all catchers and relief pitchers. Today, coming off a 24-home run season and career bests in games and RBIs, Pence is a 13th-rounder in ESPN's top 300, more than 100 spots behind Price, after numerous catchers, relievers and starting pitchers with ERAs higher than 5.

<offer></offer>So whatever happened to Pence's value, and is it possible this is one of those odd but hardly uncommon one-year situations in which a previously reliable, popular, in-demand player brings attractive sleeper possibilities? Well yes, it sure is! I ask this all the time with players who have gone from valuable to overlooked in one year: What really changed to torpedo his value? Pence played in 160 games, not succumbing to injury like Ryan Howard or Dan Haren. At 29, he's not particularly old, not like Paul Konerko or Roy Halladay. Basically, Pence struck out more than ever, had less luck on balls in play than ever, stole fewer bases than, well, ever and now calls a pitcher's park his new home. Other than that, all's well.

I didn't have Pence as high as my fifth round last season, but also haven't dropped him to the point 36 starting pitchers, 12 closers and Pittsburgh Pirates second baseman Neil Walker, a player Pence topped by 64 spots on the final edition of the 2012 Player Rater, were ranked ahead of him. The notion of a player suffering a precipitous drop in value from one year to the next is nothing new in fantasy sports, but when it comes to Pence, the skills certainly seem intact. His age, security, lineup spot and motivation (contract year!) aren't an issue. So what is?


While the skills are fading a bit, in this case concern seems to come down to home ballpark. Let's face it, AT&T Park is lovely, but it's not the friendliest place for hitters. However, that doesn't mean Pence will fail as badly in it moving forward as he did hitting .220 with a .645 OPS, three home runs and nary a stolen base over 126 plate appearances last year. I'd call it a small sample size. Buster Posey hit .343 with power at AT&T Park in 2012. Marco Scutaro (.358), Melky Cabrera, Brandon Belt and Pablo Sandoval each hit better than .300 in their home games. Belt and Sandoval certainly didn't hit much on the road. There's variation every season, but Pence is likely to improve on hitting .220 there, and on .253 overall.

Sure, Pence isn't the most graceful baseball player, at the plate, on the bases, in the field or in commercials (yep, I've seen them), but he does have a track record, and what he did -- or didn't do -- in a small sample after a surprising July trade shouldn't be too exaggerated. Don't expect Pence to hit .300, or swat 25 home runs, reach 100 RBIs or even steal 15 bases, but I think he'll do enough across the board (.280, 20-90-12) to be a top-30 outfielder, an interesting bounce-back fantasy option somewhat written off because of a few underwhelming months of performance.

Here are some other hitters whose 2012 ADP looks awfully out of place in comparison to their 2013 top-300 rank, and that's after removing some of the more obvious age/injury situations.

Nelson Cruz, OF, Texas Rangers: Again, I wasn't a big fan of his value as the 44th overall pick a year ago, but now Cruz has dropped further than Pence, despite -- again -- career bests in games (159), RBIs (90) and a batting average that didn't exactly destroy anyone (.260). What changed? The RBI statistic tells us little, but Cruz has power and will have many chances to knock in runs, even with Josh Hamilton gone. Unless some outside force keeps Cruz from playing, this is a safe power hitter, and top-100 pick.

Mark Teixeira, 1B, New York Yankees: Teixeira missed 39 games, mainly late in the season with a calf injury, but he was well on his way to another 30-100 campaign. His .251 batting average, while not helpful, was up a bit from 2011. He's not leaving Gotham anytime soon, and has a long track record for durability and power. So why has he gone from the 24th overall pick to 83rd? I know first base is deep, but that's too far. I don't see much danger here.


Paul Konerko, 1B, Chicago White Sox: OK, he'll turn 37 in a few weeks, but some of the noteworthy bounce-back fellows tend to be a bit older, after all. Konerko did hit .298 with 26 home runs in his 144 games, so I wouldn't call him Carlos Pena. He had offseason wrist surgery, which can scare many a fantasy owner away, but to go from 41st in ADP to 98 spots worse in our rankings seems extreme. There's awesome value here.

Shane Victorino, OF, Boston Red Sox: The fact he stopped hitting effectively against right-handed pitching in 2012 is obvious, but I add the "2012" part because I refuse to believe he can't rebound to some degree, especially with half his games at Fenway Park. A fantasy owner shouldn't be surprised by 15 home runs, 35 steals and a .275 batting average for the Flyin' Hawaiian, making his drop from seventh-rounder to Angel Pagan range (12th round) a bit odd.


Alexei Ramirez, SS, Chicago White Sox: His overall value dropped, as he refused to take walks and hit fewer home runs, but he played 158 games, hit .265 (down from .269) and stole a career-best 20 bases. The drop in runs scored can be blamed on lineup position. He's 30. And he goes from top-100 in 2012 ADP to barely top-200 in 2013 rankings. I'm not saying I'm targeting Ramirez, but a five-year average of .276, 16 home runs, 13 steals and 72 runs is worth more than a 20th-round pick.

Others who should bring fantasy value compared to draft position, to varying degrees: Eric Hosmer, 1B, Kansas City Royals; Brett Gardner, OF, New York Yankees; Rickie Weeks, 2B, Milwaukee Brewers; Brian McCann, C, Atlanta Braves; Dan Uggla, 2B, Atlanta Braves; the entire Phillies infield!
 

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Spring storylines to track
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Eric Karabell

Washington Nationals: All eyes will be on top-five starting pitcher Stephen Strasburg, but he's already valued nicely. If Bryce Harper has a big spring, however, his value will soar. I already have him in my top 20 overall. Also, watch second baseman Danny Espinosa and his bum shoulder. If he doesn't hit, it could portend surgery.

<offer>Atlanta Braves: Fantasy owners love the young players! If/when shortstop Andrelton Simmons "runs" with the leadoff spot, he'll go from perhaps undrafted status to somewhere about the 15th round.</offer>

Philadelphia Phillies: The ceiling for what former fantasy first-round pick Roy Halladay can do is obviously high. However, he'll probably be selected outside the top 20 pitchers in early drafts. His next six weeks could push him into the top 10 … or irrelevancy.

New York Mets: Have you seen this outfield? It's a bit embarrassing. Fantasy owners know that means opportunity for a sleeper to emerge, so keep an eye on who hits between Mike Baxter, Andrew Brown, Kirk Nieuwenhuis, Collin Cowgill and Lee Mazzilli. OK, maybe not Mazzilli.

Miami Marlins: It's up to you, Giancarlo Stanton, to either smile and hit many home runs, or sulk and beg for a trade. I think he'll hit, and we'll see what kind of lineup forms around him. Watch my sleeper fave Justin Ruggiano soar up the draft lists while protecting Stanton in the order.

Cincinnati Reds: It's all about Aroldis Chapman and his pending role. Do you want 40 saves or 200 strikeouts? Also, can Billy Hamilton force his way on the team and run wild?


St. Louis Cardinals: With Chris Carpenter out of the picture -- do not draft him! -- you'll see inning-by-inning spring updates on promising right-hander Shelby Miller and his quest for the No. 5 rotation spot. Young player alert! (Frankly, Trevor Rosenthal might be even better if he wins the job.)

Milwaukee Brewers: First baseman Corey Hart claims he'll return sooner rather than later from knee surgery. His draft-day value, and that of Mat Gamel's and perhaps prospect Hunter Morris', hinges on it.

Pittsburgh Pirates: If perennial tease Francisco Liriano is leading the Grapefruit League in strikeouts in mid-March, you know he'll become everyone's sleeper. Again.

Chicago Cubs: Even if Carlos Marmol can find the plate -- good luck with that! -- he'll still be drafted outside the top 20 closers. If he loses the role, however, Japanese import Kyuji Fujikawa would be in the top 20. Keep that in mind.

San Francisco Giants: Tim Lincecum is currently outside our top 30 starting pitchers. With a big spring, he'll easily invade the top 20 again. With a bad spring, it's more like Phil Hughes territory.

Los Angeles Dodgers: There are numerous players to watch here. Carl Crawford's range of draft-day possibilities is huge depending on health and performance. Hanley Ramirez could force his way into the second round. But watch Dee Gordon. We know he can run. If he hits, he could become quite a fantasy asset.

Arizona Diamondbacks: Center fielder Adam Eaton has fantasy-relevant skills. If he were to steal 10 bases in spring games, he'd go from undrafted to 15th round rather quickly.

San Diego Padres: Fair or not, if Chase Headley doesn't hit in the meaningless games, it would affect his value. The guy was awesome the second half of 2012, and there's already major fluctuation in terms of where he's being selected.

Colorado Rockies: Watch second base and third base, as there are jobs open. Prospect Josh Rutledge should draw standard-league attention if he earns a starting job.

New York Yankees: Ignore the Alex Rodriguez soap opera and make sure Derek Jeter and Mariano Rivera are healthy. Jeter likely will be a draft-day bargain, but will we get six months of play from him? And if Rivera has a hiccup, David Robertson becomes more viable than even low-end closers.

Baltimore Orioles: Manny Machado is a future star. If he has a big spring, or if shortstop J.J. Hardy is traded or hurt, few players will rise in ADP quicker.

Tampa Bay Rays: If Wil Myers wins a starting job, he'll probably get overdrafted. If he doesn't, he'll be unfairly forgotten. This is a player to stash for June.


Toronto Blue Jays: Wait, I thought they were already given World Series rings? The status of Jose Bautista and his sore wrist is much like the Halladay watch. Will it be second round (or first!) for Joey Bats or outside the top 50?

Boston Red Sox: It will be interesting to see how much, and how well, Mike Napoli plays. If he plays well, last year's top catcher on draft day will surely be in more demand after an odd offseason. Also, John Lackey could become a deep-league option again.

Detroit Tigers: Um, who closes?

Chicago White Sox: I'm not concerned about Paul Konerko, and consider him a draft-day steal, but a big spring would move him up. Watch Tyler Flowers behind the plate. He has the power to matter.

Kansas City Royals: Certainly if Wil Myers has a big spr- … um, hold on there. I mean Jeff Francoeur. Nice job, Royals. Seriously, though, Eric Hosmer will bash this spring, and this year he won't stop bashing in April and May.

Cleveland Indians: Admit it, you'll be hanging with every Dice-K outing. It's OK, you're not alone. Oh, and watch Trevor Bauer, too, because his outings will actually matter.

Minnesota Twins: Aaron Hicks and Joe Benson are the young, name guys battling for center field, but when Darin Mastroianni swipes 10 bags this spring and leads off when it matters in April, you'll be happy you grabbed a 35-steal guy who was overlooked by everyone else.

Oakland Athletics: Infield jobs are up for grabs, with the value of Jed Lowrie, Scott Sizemore and Hiroyuki Nakajima hinging on the results. I'd like to see lefty Brett Anderson stay healthy so we can see what he can do.

Texas Rangers: Jurickson Profar is 19. Lance Berkman is 37. In this case, pay attention to their stats, health, lineup spots, manager-speak, everything.

Los Angeles Angels: Well, I'm certainly curious to see who ends up hitting second, between Mike Trout and Albert Pujols/Josh Hamilton. Aren't you, Erick Aybar fans? Plus, is Ryan Madson healthy enough to close in early April, and will Tommy Hanson's arm stay attached?

Seattle Mariners: Speaking of health, how's that elbow, King Felix? What, you thought we were watching Jason Bay and Blake Beavan here?

Houston Astros: Mock if you will, and you probably will, but I see potential sleepers galore here, mainly on offense. Of course, since most of you can't name five Astros after Jose Altuve, you should at least see who gets the at-bats.
 

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[h=1]Spring into a new season[/h][h=3]The top storylines, best/worst signings, most/least improved and players to watch[/h]By Jayson Stark | ESPN.com

Yessir, it's that time again. Time to say so long to the Harbaugh brothers and say hello to the Upton brothers. Time to tune out the sequester and tune in Jon Lester. Time to stop tweeting about Kyle Lohse's never-ending quest for employment and start worrying about the Cubs' never-ending quest for a decent center fielder.
In other words, it's time once again to unlock the gates to Tempe Diablo Stadium, Camelback Ranch and good old McKechnie Field. Time to resume typing those exotic Port Charlotte, Maryvale and Lake Buena Vista datelines. And especially, time to start dreaming those always-uplifting spring training dreams.
Because winter -- or at least the nonbaseball portion of it -- is over. Finally. And spring training is upon us. Luckily.
So allow us to shine a heat lamp on the arctic frigidity that is no doubt bearing down on your household, by previewing the sun, the fun and all the hot storylines of Spring Training 2013 -- with the help of 16 all-knowing baseball men who so graciously took part in our annual spring-preview survey.
[h=3]Most Intriguing National League Spring Stories[/h]
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1. Hooray For Hollywood: For the first time in this millennium (and what seems like the first time in any millennium), there's a baseball team in our midst that will outspend the Yankees. That team, of course, is the Marlins. And ... OK, no it's not. It's actually the National League's first $217 million single-season budget baseball franchise ever, those Los Angeles/Guggenheim Dodgers. And this is their time. Or at least it had better be, considering that their part owner/part inspirational Jedi, Magic Johnson, just laid out one of those dreaded win-it-all mission statements. This will be the first spring in which Zack Greinke, Josh Beckett, Carl Crawford, Adrian Gonzalez and Hanley Ramirez all assemble on the same field at the same time in the same uniforms. And if their trusty manager, Don Mattingly, can't make those pieces fit together harmoniously, it might not matter that this team appears to have more money in its checking account than Bill Gates.
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2. Nationals' Treasure: So when was the last time a team from Washington headed for spring training expected to be the best team in baseball? During the Calvin Coolidge administration maybe? Aw, whenever. Doesn't matter now. What matters is, the 2013 edition of the Washington Nationals is loaded. So loaded that the Nationals made a $28 million impulse buy on a closer (Rafael Soriano) this winter, even though they already had two guys on the roster (Drew Storen and Tyler Clippard) who had combined for 79 saves in 2011 and '12. So loaded that they didn't have room for a man who had led their team in slugging over the past two years (Michael Morse). So loaded that they voluntarily pulled the plug on their best pitcher (Stephen Strasburg) last summer so they could look ahead to more health and good times this summer. Should be a fun and mesmerizing spring in the wilds of Viera, Fla.
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3. What's Upton: From the producers who once brought us Chipper-palooza, The Greatest Rotation Show on Earth and 14 Peachtree Octobers, those ever-inventive Atlanta Braves have done it again. This spring, they're rolling out "Oh, Brother," a rollicking tale of two Upton brothers (B.J. and Justin) hanging out side by side in the very same outfield. Their assignments: (1) to put their enigmatic past reputations behind them and lift each other to stupendous new heights; (2) to turn themselves into the best brother act ever to work for the same team at the same time; and (3) to lead their new team to glory in Year 1 of the Post-Chipper era. That Braves-Nationals rivalry could be about as good as it gets in the National League this year.
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4. Diamondback Jubilee: So many people in our survey brought up this team, it's clear that people across this sport are fascinated by the Arizona Diamondbacks. Out the door went Justin Upton, Chris Young and Trevor Bauer (among others) this winter. In came Martin Prado, Cody Ross, Eric Chavez, Eric Hinske, Brandon McCarthy, Heath Bell, Cliff Pennington and Didi Gregorius, in a series of moves that one AL executive described as not just a roster remake, but a "personality cleanse." So is there still a place in modern, 21st-century baseball for a team constructed around the blood-and-dirtball image of throwback manager Kirk Gibson and his coaching staff? We're about to find out.
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5. Cuban Missile Crisis: So let's see now. Those Cincinnati Reds looked out into their bullpen last season, saw a guy who piled up nearly 90 more strikeouts (122) than hits (35), turned the finest batsmiths on earth into .141 hitters and could reach like 175 mph on the radar gun -- and now they want to mess with that? Yup. That's about the size of it, all right. As Jerry Crasnick detailed in depth, the Reds are about to embark this spring on a quest to convert their intimidating bullpen monster man, Aroldis Chapman, into a starter, even though Joba Chamberlain and Daniel Bard might be willing to offer several alternative thoughts. The Reds say they're not locked into this plan yet, so train your eyes on Goodyear Ballpark this spring: The fate of this team's extremely promising season might be riding on every journey its favorite Cuban smokeball-launcher makes to the mound.
[h=3]Most Intriguing American League Spring Stories[/h]
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1. Yanks For The Memories: Every spring is a soap opera in Yankee Land. So why should this spring be any exception? Will Derek Jeter and Mariano Rivera perform their standard miraculous healing act? Will a proven catcher (not counting Yogi Berra) stop by one of these days? Will the Yankees figure out a way to replace those 101 home runs that just vanished off the roster over the winter? Will Robinson Cano's walk year before free agency erupt into crisis-hood? And will the artist formerly known as A-Rod appear in this camp at any point? That's about 1/87th of the plotlines hovering over Steinbrenner Field this spring. But again, what else is new?
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2. Angel Eyes: Is anyone else out there still trying to get used to the idea that Josh Hamilton is an Angel now? One minute, he was getting booed out of Texas. The next, the Angels were making their annual free-agent stealth strike -- and dropping Hamilton into the middle of a lineup that already included gentlemen named Albert Pujols and Mike Trout. So they've set the stage for a spring that figures to be loaded with Hamilton-ian intrigue, but that's not all. Is their other big free-agent acquisition, Ryan Madson, healthy enough to close? Is their rebuilt rotation dependable enough to propel them toward a rendezvous with October? And if not, is there reason for a manager who for years was the face of this franchise, Mike Scioscia, to start worrying about his future employment plans? Lots of action in this camp.
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3. This Ain't South Beach: Was it really just a year ago that Jose Reyes and Mark Buehrle were rolling into the Marlins' camp, ready to become central figures in the rebirth of baseball in Miami? Well, never mind that, because Reyes, Buehrle, Josh Johnson and Emilio Bonifacio are Blue Jays now. But if it helps them settle in at all, so are R.A. Dickey, Melky Cabrera, Maicer Izturis, Josh Thole, Mark DeRosa and a whole new cast of characters who have been imported for the sole purpose of bringing postseason baseball to Canada for the first time since Joe Carter's home run landed 20 years ago. It has been a long, long time since the center of the AL East's spring training universe could be found in beautiful downtown Dunedin, Fla. But it will be this year.
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4. Royality Check: Not to imply it's been a while since the Kansas City Royals played a postseason game. But the last time they took part in one, the names in the box score included Buddy Biancalana, Jim Sundberg, Lonnie Smith and a Cardinals reliever (Bill Campbell) who turns 65 this year. Now, though, the Royals are taking a bold shot at doing what one exec pithily referred to as a "Rays 2008 impersonation." The good news is, they're building this pursuit around a real, live, one-time member of the 2008 Rays, James Shields. The bad news is, the Royals traded the minor league player of the year (Wil Myers) and three other legit prospects to get him. The worse news is, the Tigers haven't seceded from their division in the past 10 minutes. But that unfortunate happenstance won't make spring training any less interesting for this team. Huge spring, huge season, coming right up.
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5. Take Your Sox Off: So whatever happened to that Bobby V guy anyhow? And, for that matter, whatever happened to Adrian Gonzalez, Dice-K, Josh Beckett, Carl Crawford, da Youkah and all those other transcendent figures who were going to spend last season proving that there would indeed be a happy and prosperous Life After Theo and Tito for the Boston Red Sox? OK, so much for that fun-filled experiment. The Red Sox are trying it again this year with their old friend John Farrell at the helm and a bunch of big-ticket free agents who swear they come in peace: Ryan Dempster, Mike Napoli, Shane Victorino, Jonny Gomes, Stephen Drew, David Ross and Koji Uehara, just to name a few. So life is bound to be more harmonious this spring. But the upheaval on this team is the perfect symbol for the suddenly mixed-up AL East. If you know what to make of any of these teams, you're smarter than us. So spring training, here we come.[h=3]Most Improved National League Teams[/h] 1. Atlanta Braves
2. Los Angeles Dodgers
3. Washington Nationals

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The power of Upton-icity is a remarkable thing to behold. The Braves narrowly won this most-improved category in our survey in a vote that's clearly based almost solely on the belief that the Upton meter is pointing way upward now that the brothers have been united as Georgians. If you really assess the full spectrum of the Braves' offseason, you'd say they basically traded Chipper Jones, Martin Prado, Michael Bourn, David Ross, Tommy Hanson, Randall Delgado and prospects for Gerald Laird, Jordan Walden, Chris Johnson and every famed Upton in America except Kate. Does that "trade" make them substantially better? Or just substantially different? "To me," said one NL executive, "they're just different. They've gone from blue-collar to star-itis." But they've also gotten younger, more athletic and better positioned to contend over the next three years. And with Chipper moving on, they had no choice, right? So "who addressed their needs the most?" mused another NL exec. "Atlanta." And the masses obviously concur.
Fun Poll Fact: All you need to know about the winter just past in the NL is that the Braves (9), Dodgers (8) and Nationals (4) got nearly all the votes in the survey to name the three most improved NL teams. The only other clubs that even got mentioned were the Reds (1 vote), Cubs (1) and Diamondbacks (2).
[h=3]Most Improved American League Teams[/h] 1. Toronto Blue Jays
2. Kansas City Royals
3. Los Angeles Angels

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How could the Blue Jays NOT be No. 1 on this list? They have a general manager (the turbo-charged Alex Anthopoulos) who made at least one acquisition every 46.8 seconds this winter, by our calculations. All right, so not quite that many, but here's what this team did do: It traded away one manager (John Farrell), and hired another (John Gibbons). It brought in four new coaches. Claimed 10 players on waivers. Made a 12-player trade with the Marlins and a seven-player trade with the Mets. Signed three free agents to major league deals, including a guy who spent the last 50 games of last season under suspension (Melky Cabrera). And signed 23 more free agents to minor league contracts. Got all that? We're exhausted just from typing it.
Fun Poll Fact: It may seem like a great thing to finish No. 1 in this coveted category. But maybe not. The Marlins were tied for first in the polling for most improved NL teams last year -- and you know what happened to them. The Red Sox topped the AL charts the year before -- and you know what happened to them. The Mariners were voted "most improved" in 2010 -- and lost 101 games. So if the Blue Jays start out 12-53 or something, we may have to offer natural disaster insurance to next year's winner.
[h=3]Most Unimproved National League Teams[/h] 1. Miami Marlins
2. New York Mets
3. Colorado Rockies

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We were shocked -- shocked, we say -- that the Marlins were a runaway choice in this section of the survey. Just because they've exiled their $106 million shortstop (Reyes), their $58 million left-handed innings-eater (Buehrle), their disastrous free-agent closer (Bell), last year's Opening Day starter (Johnson), everyone else from last year's Opening Day lineup except Giancarlo Stanton and their entire season-opening rotation except Ricky Nolasco? Just because they've zapped about $75 million worth of payroll in the past 12 months? Just because the only free agents they signed to big league contracts as they headed for Year 2 of their new ballpark were Juan Pierre, Placido Polanco and Jon Rauch? Yeah. Just because. On the other hand, this team did lose 93 games last year, even with all the Monopoly money it scattered all over the free-agent landscape. So how much worse can this year's Fish Fry be? Seriously.
Fun Poll Fact: Our top three in this category were just about unanimous. Only one other team even got more than one vote -- the Brewers (with two).
[h=3]Most Unimproved American League Teams[/h] 1. Houston Astros
2. New York Yankees
3. Baltimore Orioles

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Nothing amazed us more during this entire survey than the votes flowing out of this precinct. We expected the Astros to swamp the most unimproved competition. Instead, it was stunningly close: The Astros showed up on 11 ballots, to the Yankees' nine. So what's up with that? We'll tell you what's up with that. The Yankees might wind up winning 40 more games than the Astros. But the Astros were already a 107-loss team, and their 2013 record is almost irrelevant in the context of their long-term (make that REALLY long-term) blueprint. The Yankees, on the other hand, are an outfit that has led us to believe the only acceptable outcome of any season involves confetti and massive champagne spritzing. So to see this team jettison its emergency closer (Rafael Soriano), its catcher (Russell Martin), its right fielder (Nick Swisher) and its latest, greatest Mr. October action figure (Raul Ibanez), among others, while adding only Kevin Youkilis and a bunch of low-budget free-agent lottery tickets (Travis Hafner, Matt Diaz, Juan Rivera, etc.) was apparently staggering to many of our voters. One described the Yankees as "the most unimproved good team." Another asked, though not entirely seriously: "Is someone going to pick the Yankees last? I know that's unlikely. But one of these years, all the age on that team is going to hit them. Right? Doesn't it have to?" Yeah, we guess so. But we still didn't see this vote coming. Did you?
Fun Poll Fact: Incredibly, nine of the 15 teams in this league received at least one vote, including three (Red Sox, Indians and Twins) who got mentions in both the most improved and most unimproved balloting. And the voting for the third spot in our top three was extremely tight, with the Orioles (5 votes) barely edging the Rangers (4), Twins (3) and White Sox (3).
[h=3]Least Recognizable Teams[/h] 1. Houston Astros
2. Miami Marlins
3. Minnesota Twins

Once upon a time, even people roaming the streets of Wyoming could spit out the names of at least eight Astros without thinking hard: Bagwell, Biggio, Berkman, Kent, Oswalt, Wagner, Lidge, Ausmus et al. But now? Yikes. How many of you out there can name even THREE Astros? Really. Here's the ultimate measure of how witness-protection-program-esque this team has become: We asked one NL executive to name six Astros off the top of his head. Here was his response: "[Jose] Altuve, Chris Carter [traded to Houston literally the day before] annnnnnd & ummmmmmm. I'm stumped." True story. So who are these guys? That's possibly the most challenging question you can ask anyone roaming around any park in spring training 2013.
Fun Poll Fact: The Astros and Marlins clearly have become this sport's poster boys for unrecognizability. The final voting in this polling: Astros 10, Marlins 9, no one else even close.
[h=3]Checkbook Champ$[/h]
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1. Dodgers: One thing we've astutely detected over the past 10 months -- the Dodgers really seem to have gotten the hang of this spending-money thing they do. So this winter, just to stay in practice, they went out and guaranteed more than $234 million of those hard-earned Guggenheim dollars to a mere four free agents, assuming you count the $25,737,737.33 posting fee it cost them just to negotiate with one of them (former Hanwha Eagles great Ryu Hyun-Jin). Of course, it helped run up that tab that one of those free agents was named Zack Greinke. But whatever. We think they should know that for that $234.09 million, they could have had Greinke, Ryu, Brandon League and J.P. Howell -- or 52,019,497 Dodger Dogs. What do you think? Tough call?
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Blue Jays: We probably should have hired a team of accounting consultants to compute this entry, because the Blue Jays guaranteed "only" $26.75 million to the three big league free agents they signed. But by the time they'd finished taking on the paychecks of a bunch of guys they traded for (Reyes, Buehrle, Johnson, Dickey, Bonifacio and Thole) and then extending Dickey's deal through 2015 for another $25 million, it came to, according to our low-end calculators, a LOT OF FRIGGING MONEY, eh? We totaled it all up as an additional $199.5 million U.S. in added guaranteed payouts. Or, if you're ciphering this up north of the border, that would be $199,360,350 Canadian -- or, to make this simpler, 5.1 million servings of handmade pasta at Scaramouche.
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Angels: On one hand, the Angels probably got a (cough, cough) "discount" on their much-ballyhooed Josh Hamilton acquisition (at "only" $125 million for five years). On the other hand, that wasn't all they crammed into their shopping cart. By the time they'd finished also grabbing Ryan Madson, Sean Burnett and Joe Blanton off the shelves, they were in for a hefty $151.5 million in new guarantees. Hey, it was either that or 496,000 Double Doubles at In-N-Out Burger.
[h=3]Best Free-Agent Signings[/h] 1. Josh Hamilton, Angels (5 years, $125 million)
2. (tie) Zack Greinke, Dodgers (6 years, $147 million); Torii Hunter, Tigers (2 years, $26 million)

So did the Angels just shell out all that moolah for the Josh Hamilton who hit 43 homers, whomped nine of them in one week and finished fifth in the MVP voting? Or did they sign the Josh Hamilton who missed five games in September because he over-caffeinated himself, struck out 18 times in his last 42 at-bats and has played in 150 games only once in his big league career? Well, both, obviously. So no wonder two of the execs who voted in our survey nominated him as both the best and worst free-agent signing of the winter. Here's how one of them explained it: "Josh goes in both categories because he is so unique. [One day] you may have the best free-agent signing ever, and the next day he is gone."
Fun Poll Fact: Want to guess how many different players got at least one vote in the best free-agent portion of this survey? How about 24 -- which was only two more than the number who got votes in the next, not-so-prestigious category.
[h=3]Worst Free-Agent Signings[/h] 1. Shane Victorino, Red Sox (3 years, $39 million)
2. B.J. Upton, Braves (5 years, $75.25 million)
3. Angel Pagan, Giants (4 years, $40 million)

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It was one of the least appetizing free-agent markets of modern times. So name just about any quasi-famous free agent. He probably got a vote in this category. Why Pagan? "$10 million a year for four years of a guy who has never been an All-Star or [finished in the] top 30 MVP [voting]?" grumbled one NL exec. Why Upton? "Five years, $75 million? He's not that kind of player," said an AL exec. And why Victorino, who ran away with this vote? "You know what? I like Shane Victorino," said one exec. "I'd take Shane Victorino. But not for three times 13 [million dollars]. No way. Too much."
Fun Poll Fact: Ready for a rundown of the seven players who got votes as one of the best and worst signings of the winter? Here goes: Hamilton, Greinke, Upton, Edwin Jackson, Rafael Soriano, Mike Napoli and Marco Scutaro. Hey, it was that kind of offseason.
[h=3]Best Trades[/h]1. The Braves complete their Upton brother collection by getting Justin for Martin Prado, Randall Delgado and three prospects who failed to dent Keith Law's Top 10 Diamondbacks prospects list.
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2. The Nationals deal an excellent pitching prospect (Alex Meyer) to Minnesota, but finally reel in the center fielder/leadoff whiz they've been stalking for two years (Denard Span) -- without having to blow $90 million on the free-agent auction mart to accomplish that mission.
3. The Blue Jays trade for pretty much the entire population of Miami, except for Dan Marino, J-Lo and Dr. Jack Ramsey. But just so no one thinks the Marlins got nothing out of this salary mega-dump, three voters said both sides got what they wanted from this swap.
Fun Poll Fact: If the best trades are really deals in which both teams "win," then we just witnessed a lot of that this winter. Trades that our voters thought qualified besides Toronto-Miami: Rays-Royals (Shields-Myers), Mets-Blue Jays (Dickey-Travis d'Arnaud) and Reds-Indians-Diamondbacks (with Shin-Soo Choo to Cincinnati and Trevor Bauer to Cleveland both getting votes).
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1. After missing out on quite the laundry list of other free-agent luminaries, the Rangers have to shell out only $7.5 million to fill their catching chasm with the ever-plucky A.J. Pierzynski, who happened to hit more home runs last year (27) than Nick Swisher, Mike Napoli, Matt Kemp Mark Teixeira or any catcher in baseball who didn't get to play half his games at Coors Field.
2. Thanks to the miracle of avascular necrosis, the Red Sox wind up with a one-year, $5 million "bargain" in Mike Napoli -- which would be two fewer years and $34 million less than they had originally planned to guarantee him. Now if he can actually play &
3. The Mets no longer have the reigning Cy Young Award winner hanging around Queens, but it costs them just $4 million for one year to take a flier on Shaun Marcum. Bet you didn't know that Marcum is one of four active pitchers working on a streak of four straight seasons with a winning record, a WHIP under 1.27, an ERA under 3.75 and at least 20 starts. The others: CC Sabathia, Justin Verlander and Matt Cain. (One slight asterisk, though: Marcum missed the entire 2009 season, following Tommy John surgery, in the middle of that streak.)
[h=3]Best Free Agents $2 Million And Under[/h]1. We can't say we personally endorse this nomination, but the voters have spoken. And they voted Delmon Young's $750,000 deal with the Phillies as the best bargain of the winter. Look at it this way: Young is one of 10 players in the big leagues who were once the No. 1 overall pick in the draft. The other nine will collect an average of $13.26 million apiece this year. Which means they'll earn as much every week and a half as Young will make all season.
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2. James Loney has never reminded anyone of, say, Willie McCovey. But for two million bucks, the Rays see a guy who can catch the ball at first, who owns an .808 career OPS at parks not known as "Dodger Stadium" and whose splits against right-handers (.294 BA/.351 OBP/.441 SLG, for a .792 OPS) suggest he'll make a fine, cost-effective platoon partner for Ben Zobrist or some other right-handed-hitting stick to be plugged in later. This guy had "low-budget Rays signing" written all over him this winter.
3. Mets fans had better sit down before they read the rest of this passage. But our voters thought Oliver Perez -- yep, THAT Oliver Perez -- was worthy of multiple best-buy votes this winter. He cost the Mariners only $1.5 million, which would be $34.5 million less than the Mets paid him to entertain them from 2009 to '11. But who knew he'd find his niche as a left-handed bullpen weapon whose forte is chewing up right-handed hitters? Correct answers: (A) Not us, and (B) not Art Howe.
[h=3]Best Free Agents Signed To Minor League Contracts[/h]1. The Mets getting LaTroy Hawkins. He won't be David Robertson. He may not even be Burke Badenhop. But you can never go wrong having Hawkins hanging out in your clubhouse or your bullpen. If he actually makes this team, he'll join Octavio Dotel, Miguel Batista and Bruce Chen as the only active pitchers who have worked for at least 10 different teams.
2. Jamey Wright, signing with the Rays. If he makes the team, he'd be the fifth active pitcher who has worked for at least 10 different teams. Call us crazy, but we pull for this stuff.
3. Rich Harden, going to the Twins. Yeah, we know he hasn't thrown a pitch in 505 days. Yeah, we know he'll probably be back on the disabled list by, say, Tax Day. But what the heck. Here are the only active starting pitchers with at least 900 career innings pitched and a better lifetime strikeout ratio than Harden (9.20 per 9 IP): Tim Lincecum (9.76) and Clayton Kershaw (9.29). And that's all, folks. So it'll be fun while it lasts.
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1. Funny how Zack Greinke was the most sought-after free agent in the whole darned sport this winter. Then the Dodgers enrich him by $147 million over the next six years, and we start hearing how outrageous his contract was. But there's something about this guy, for all his talent, that inspires this sort of reaction. Even some of the clubs that kicked around the idea of signing him admitted the years and dollars he wanted made them nervous. And it must be true. Otherwise, they'd be employing him now instead of the Dodgers. Right?
2. Josh Hamilton was actually the second-leading vote-getter in this department, but we've been through all that. So we're arbitrarily promoting the next man on the list, Jonathan Broxton, to No. 2. Broxton got just $21 million over three years from the Reds, which is less than Hamilton will make just this year. But Broxton's mission impossible is to replace one of the most dominating closers on earth (Aroldis Chapman), at a stage in his career where "dominating" wouldn't exactly describe him. Back in 2009, Broxton punched out 13.5 hitters per nine innings. His strikeout rate last year was 6.98 K/9 -- less than HALF of Chapman's rate. The Reds are a team that almost always makes good decisions, but we're not sold on this one.
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3. A tie, between Marco Scutaro and Angel Pagan. The Giants won the World Series with this dynamic duo, then went out and did what it took to keep the band together. And that's a beautiful thing -- for T-shirt sales. But are they SURE it was a good idea to guarantee three years and $20 million to a 37-year-old middle infielder (Scutaro), no matter how inspirational an October figure he may have been? And are they SURE it was worth committing four years and $40 million to a center fielder (Pagan) who turns 32 in July and whose Similarity Score list at baseball-reference.com produces names like Felix Jose and Alex Ochoa? Our voters definitely weren't.
Fun Poll Fact: Three different voters asked if it was OK to put Alex Rodriguez's contract on this most-outrageous list retroactively, seeing as how it looks worse and worse every time you read the Bottom Line on "Sportscenter." Unfortunately, that's not how this category normally works. But we get their drift!
[h=3]Most Important Injury Comebacks[/h] 1. Mariano Rivera & Derek Jeter (Yankees)
2. Carl Crawford (Dodgers)
3. (tie) Roy Halladay (Phillies) and Troy Tulowitzki (Rockies)
[h=3]NL Rookies To Watch[/h] 1. Oscar Tavares (Cardinals RF)
2. Tyler Skaggs (Diamondbacks LHP)
3. Billy Hamilton (Reds CF)
[h=3]AL Rookies To Watch[/h] 1. Wil Myers (Rays RF)
2. Jurickson Profar (Rangers INF)
3. Bruce Rondon (Tigers closer candidate)
[h=3]Most Unlikely Names on Spring Training Rosters[/h]1. Kelvim Escobar (Brewers): How long ago does 2007 seem? We bring that up because that year Escobar went 18-7 for the Angels and looked as if he'd finally had that bust-out season the Blue Jays and Angels had been waiting on for about a decade. Sadly, the only thing that busted after that was this guy's shoulder -- which has allowed him to reach a big league mound exactly once since then. And that was in 2009. The Brewers caught his act in winter ball and decided they had nada to lose. But just for the record, since the last time Escobar won a game -- on Sept. 29, 2007 -- CC Sabathia has won 91 of them.
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2. Bobby Crosby (Brewers): Here are just some of the players who were rookies in 2004: Zack Greinke, Matt Holliday, Alex Rios, Grady Sizemore and David Wright. But who was your AL Rookie of the Year that season? Bobby Crosby, who else? That was nine long years ago, friends. Crosby has played 100 games in a big league season just once since then. He hasn't had an OPS-Plus above league average (or even over 75) since 2005. He hasn't played in a professional game since 2010. But the Brewers are apparently into nostalgia this spring, because they're bringing him in to be Kelvim Escobar's co-star in the Miracle in Maryvale saga they'll be scripting. How great is that?
3. Jeremy Bonderman (Mariners): It's only fitting, if thoracic outlet syndrome is going to force Chris Carpenter out of the game, that another guy who struggled with it gets to charge back into the game. So here comes Bonderman, three years after his last appearance in a professional box score and nearly five years since TOS surgery turned his baseball world upside-down. It's hard to believe this guy is still only 30 years old. So he deserves to get his career back; maybe that never happens, but that's what spring training dreams are all about.
[h=3]Event(s) That Summed Up The Offseason[/h]We got nominations in this category for the Biogenesis saga, the election of zero players to the Hall of Fame and the continuing unemployment of special platinum iconic Scott Boras clients Michael Bourn and Kyle Lohse. But we were looking for something slightly more upbeat than those sad stories. So here's our final answer:
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The saga of Eli Whiteside, Russ Canzler and Sandy Rosario -- three men who, after this winter, qualify for first-ballot induction into the Waiver Wire Hall of Fame.
Whiteside went from the Giants to the Yankees to the Blue Jays to the Rangers, in a span of 28 days. Canzler bounced from the Indians to the Blue Jays, back to the Indians, then to the Yankees and onward to the Orioles -- in a span of 46 days.
Rosario might beat them both. The Red Sox claimed him from the Marlins, traded him to Oakland, claimed him back 12 days later, then lost him to the Cubs two days after that. But his glorious Cubs career lasted only nine days, whereupon the Giants claimed him -- and have managed to hang on to him for nearly a month and a half now.
We're not sure what this says about the modern state of baseball, other than the fact that it's possible some people in this sport spend more time reading the waiver wire than the box scores. But whatever the heck went on there, nobody will be happier to report to spring training this week than those three guys. Right?
"I think that's safe to say," said the AL exec who nominated this group. "But someone's going to report to the wrong team. Don't you think?"
 

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[h=1]AL position battles to watch[/h][h=3]Predicting who will win key roles on contenders during spring training[/h]By Ben Lindbergh | Baseball Prospectus

General managers put most of their rosters' pieces in place by the time pitchers and catchers report, but the majority of major league teams still show up at spring training with a position or two where their plans aren't set in stone.

What their depth charts will look like on Opening Day depends in part on what transpires over the next two months. Who will show up in better shape? Who will convince the manager that he wants it more? Who will have a couple of weeks of hot hitting, even if history has shown that spring training performance isn't predictive of regular-season success?

The following five American League contenders have questions about the division of labor at one or more positions that need to be answered by the time they break camp. Here's how those positions should shake out. (We'll look at the National League on Tuesday.)


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Team: Detroit Tigers
Position: Left Field
Battlers: Brennan Boesch and Andy Dirks

Dirks hit .322/.370/.487 in left last season; Boesch hit .240/.286/.372 in right, where he has been displaced by Torii Hunter. Those stats would seem to make this a clear-cut case, but PECOTA's offensive projections for the pair are comparatively close (.769 OPS for Dirks, .744 for Boesch), and Jim Leyland has indicated that Boesch will have a chance to compete for a starting role.

Who should win? Dirks. Both hitters are left-handed, and neither has shown any platoon split to speak of at the major league level, so this isn't a problem a platoon would solve. Dirks' recent success and Boesch's issues with impatience make Dirks the better and the more likely choice. The Tigers also have potential position battles at closer, where rookie Bruce Rondon needs to prove he has the control to be a closer, and at the back of the rotation, where Rick Porcello will probably prevail over Drew Smyly.


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Team: Oakland Athletics
Position: Second Base
Battlers: Grant Green, Scott Sizemore, Adam Rosales and Jemile Weeks

According to manager Bob Melvin, the starter at second will be the winner of an open competition between Weeks, who followed a strong 2011 rookie season with a disastrous sophomore slump that busted him back to Triple-A, and Sizemore, who missed all of 2012 after tearing his ACL last spring. Prospect Grant Green and utility guy Adam Rosales have an outside chance to work their way into the mix. The A's acquisition of Jed Lowrie earlier this week raised the stakes even higher, since his presence means there will be fewer at-bats to go around in the infield.

Who should win? Sizemore. The A's have a lot of emotional capital -- not to mention a sizeable signing bonus -- invested in Weeks, a former first-round pick, but they'll be wary of commitment after being burned when his bat went backward last season. The real Weeks lies somewhere in the middle of the models we saw in the past two seasons, but PECOTA projects Sizemore to be a better, above-average bat. If he shows that his knee can handle the strain of every-day play, he'll likely receive the lion's share of the early season starts.


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Team: New York Yankees
Position: Catcher
Battlers: Chris Stewart, Francisco Cervelli and Austin Romine

Scan the names, and this looks like a battle between backup catchers. Such is the state of the Yankees' starting catcher competition in the post-Russell Martin era, which includes only rookies and career second-stringers.

Who should win? Stewart. The veteran excels at framing pitches, which allowed him to save his staff 13 runs in under 400 innings behind home plate last season, according to research done by BP's Max Marchi. That goes a long way toward making up for his offensive inadequacies, and since neither Cervelli nor Romine is a safe bet to be much better with the bat, Stewart's glove gives him an edge. Cervelli has a solid shot to break camp as the backup, assuming his ties to Biogenesis don't become a bigger story, but Romine is a threat to unseat either player at some point this season if he proves he is fully recovered from the back issues that sidelined him in 2012.


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Team: Texas Rangers
Position: Center field
Battlers: Craig Gentry and Leonys Martin

Josh Hamilton's departure left a glaring hole in center field for Texas, and they've thus far resisted any temptation to replace him with free agent Michael Bourn. Instead, they'll try to cobble together an in-house solution with Gentry, last year's understudy in center, and Martin, the 24-year-old Cuban rookie who tore up Triple-A last season but has only 60 subpar big league plate appearances to his name.

Who should win? Martin. According to a recent report by Rangers beat writer T.R. Sullivan, Ron Washington views Martin as "raw and unpolished, especially on the defensive end." The rookie's work with outfield instructor Gary Pettis should help, but he's unlikely to be better with the glove than Gentry, who might be one of the best defenders in baseball.

However, Martin has the higher offensive upside -- PECOTA projects a .265 TAv, compared to .248 for Gentry -- and as a left-handed hitter, he'll match up well with more opposing starters. Barring a big difference in spring training stats, neither player is truly likely to win, since the odds are that this will be a straight platoon. The real winner might be the Rangers, who stand to get solid production from the pair at a fraction of the cost of a high-priced free agent.


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Team: Toronto Blue Jays
Position: Second Base
Battlers: Emilio Bonifacio and Maicer Izturis

The Jays will replace Kelly Johnson at the keystone with some combination of their two switch-hitting, multiposition offseason infield acquisitions. Both players are used to filling in all over the field, and neither has started more than 64 games at second in any single season, but one of them is likely to top that total in 2013.

Who should win? Izturis. Based on early indications, both Alex Anthopoulos and John Gibbons prefer the player who will be making more money (Izturis). But forget the salaries; the stats support their preference too. Both players can take a walk and Bonifacio has better speed, but Izturis makes more contact, has superior power and is a stronger defender. PECOTA projects a .735 OPS for him and a .697 mark for Bonifacio.
 

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Bourn deal hurts Stubbs' value
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Eric Karabell

to the Cleveland Indians for Monday's splashy signing of free-agent outfielder Michael Bourn, as he'll surely help the squad as a leadoff hitter who steals bases and adds significant defensive value. Of course, it's interesting to me that the potential loser in this signing is a fellow Tribe outfielder who actually was more valuable for fantasy purposes as recently as 2010, and mighty overlooked since. Yep, if you own Drew Stubbs, a player who hits for power and runs but might not get to do much of either in 2013, you're not so pleased today.

Stubbs certainly has faults at the plate, notably with his high strikeout totals and low batting averages, but in 2010 when he hit .255 with 22 home runs, 77 RBIs, 30 steals and scored 90 runs for the Cincinnati Reds, he finished as the No. 23 outfielder and No. 58 option on ESPN's Player Rater. Bourn, for all his reliable, consistent goodness, was No. 27 at his position and 72nd overall that same year. Bourn was more valuable each of the past two seasons, but in fantasy terms, Stubbs shouldn't be forgotten. In 2011, Stubbs was a top-30 outfielder, and since 2010 he and new Atlanta Braves outfielder B.J. Upton, a fellow hacker, are the only players in baseball to reach as many as 14 home runs and 30 stolen bases in each of those three seasons. Nope, Ryan Braun did not do it.
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Bourn's addition probably sets him up defensively between Michael Brantley and Nick Swisher in the outfield, with Mark Reynolds handling first base, though the designated hitter spot remains problematic with prospect Chris McGuiness and potentially Jason Giambi vying for at-bats. Perhaps Swisher moves to first base and Reynolds is the DH, with Stubbs in right field. I hope that happens, because while Stubbs -- and Upton, for that matter -- can surely harm a fantasy team's batting average, it's also nice to get a player who contributes consistently in all the counting statistics and can continue doing so, and let's be clear, that's not Bourn.

Oh sure, Bourn can probably get back to 50 stolen bases, though even that is hardly assured based on his being caught 13 times last year. There's an easy fantasy argument to make that one can get steals later in drafts, so why take the guy in Round 5 who doesn't contribute among the leaders elsewhere. For example, before 2012 Bourn's career home run total was 13, and there's no indication the nine he hit last year is a harbinger of some Yadier Molina-type late-career push. It was more likely a contract push, but he still didn't slug .400. Bourn hit .225 in the second half of 2012 with two home runs. Also, we're still waiting for Bourn to actually score 100 runs in a season. He has never done it, and I wouldn't call this Indians lineup notable. Last year, Bourn struck out 155 times. This is a lot for anyone but consistent with someone swinging for the fences. Man, this lineup will swing and miss a ton!

I really can't say I've targeted Bourn in drafts over the years; he's a stolen-base guy who has been erratic though safe in batting average (certainly no Stubbs!) and early in drafts I want my outfielders hitting for power first, stealing bases second. The key word there is safe; Bourn has little downside, but would it be shocking if any number of players taken late in drafts or not at all -- such as Rajai Davis and Everth Cabrera from 2012 -- ran more or delivered similar production?

So it is I don't target Bourn in drafts, and 2013 shouldn't be any different. Entering Monday neither I nor ESPN Fantasy ranked him among our top 50 players. I don't see any reason to alter his status pro or con today, as this isn't a situation where a power hitter left Petco Park for Coors Field. This is a base stealer, and that's about it. Bourn was going to find work, and he should be good for a few home runs, 40-45 RBIs, 40-50 steals, 90 runs and a batting average in the .270 range (he's a .272 career hitter). That's fine, and it beats Stubbs, but it's not top-50 on draft day.

Ultimately, fantasy owners should keep an eye on how the Indians set their lineup. I'm not a big fan of Brantley, who possesses no above-average fantasy skill or the hope it's pending, and the value for Swisher and Reynolds is pretty much set. McGuiness has upside, but no guaranteed job. Meanwhile, Stubbs is proven and only 28. Perhaps he'll never escape his free-swinging ways and hit even .250 consistently, but we know he brings that tantalizing combination of power and speed, and it's not at all wishful thinking that he could again be more valuable than Bourn, because he has already proved it.
 

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[h=1]Categorical improvements[/h][h=3]Going to a 6x6 Rotisserie format can really improve fantasy baseball[/h]By Tristan H. Cockcroft | ESPN.com

Baseball has undergone quite a statistical revolution in the past 30-plus years, yet remarkably, Rotisserie Baseball, a game based upon the real game's statistics, has remained largely unchanged during that time.

Sure, since 1980, many Rotisserie leagues have migrated from 4x4 to 5x5 scoring, adding runs scored and (pitcher) strikeouts, but the same core categories -- including categories many sabermetricians regard flawed -- remain.


For example, during the history of fantasy baseball, we have learned valuable lessons about two of Rotisserie's longtime staples:

• That batting average, most notably, both fails to credit a hitter's ability to avoid making outs and is subject to random fluctuation. It has come under the most criticism for discounting walks, a hitting skill that has skyrocketed in appreciation the past 30-plus years.

• That wins, while always a questionable measure of individual pitching skill, has become increasingly so as team pitching staffs grow more specialized. Its value has diminished as starting pitchers' workloads have lessened and bullpens have taken on greater importance.

That's just a quick glance, as we've also learned things about other longtime Rotisserie categories: That RBIs and runs scored, like wins, are context-dependent, too reliant on teammates and not a good enough measure of individual skill; that saves have too broad a definition and aren't necessarily the best indicator of relief success; and that earned run average (ERA), like batting average, isn't the ideal barometer for pitching skill because of its variance depending upon ballpark, team defense and, frankly, official scorer's decisions.

But the goal of this column is not to nitpick all 10 traditional Rotisserie categories. We continue to learn new things about the game every year, so it's possible we have not yet arrived at the ideal mix of statistics to measure player skill.

The goal of this column is to make our game better. It is to inspire forward thinking, to generate ideas how to change with changing times. It is to give you one big idea that might inspire you to take the next big leap.

That big idea in which Rotisserie Baseball can evolve involves removal of both the batting average and wins categories, while migrating to a 6x6 scoring system that incorporates some stronger indicators of player skill. It is a long-overdue change, and one that should increase both the levels of knowledge and enjoyment of this generation of fantasy baseball players.

This new Rotisserie 6x6 scoring, six categories apiece for hitters and pitchers -- one first mentioned nearly three years ago -- uses the following statistics:


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HittingPitching
On-Base Percentage (OBP)Quality Starts (QS)
Slugging Percentage (SLG)Innings Pitched (IP)
Home Runs (HR)Saves (SV)
Runs Batted In (RBI)Earned Run Average (ERA)
Stolen Bases (SB)Walks plus Hits divided by Innings Pitched (WHIP)
Runs Scored (R)Strikeouts per Nine Innings ratio (K/9)

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In addition to removing the aforementioned batting average (AVG) and wins (W) from the equation, it also replaces strikeouts (K) with strikeouts-per-nine-innings ratio (K/9).

Let's discuss the rationale behind the hitting changes first.


By adding on-base percentage, we finally reward players for walks, the most glaring omission on the hitting side in Rotisserie Baseball history. Using 2012 statistics, there's perhaps no stronger argument for migrating from batting average to on-base percentage than this: Alex Rios, who batted .304 in 605 at-bats, was rated one of the 20 most valuable in terms of batting average on our 2012 Player Rater. Meanwhile, Chicago White Sox teammate Adam Dunn's .204 batting average in 539 at-bats rated second-worst in the category. Dunn, however, reached base via hit, walk or hit by pitch two more times than Rios (216-214), had a near-identical on-base percentage (.333 to Rios' .334) and, per Baseball-Reference.com, committed eight fewer outs (442-450).

Slugging percentage, meanwhile, credits players for their ability to generate extra-base hits, as doubles and triples were entirely ignored in Rotisserie 5x5, while providing the necessary six-category balance on the hitting side. Alex Gordon is an outstanding example of a player who doesn't receive enough credit for these valuable contributions. In the past two seasons combined he has the fifth-most extra-base hits (142) and a slugging percentage (.478) that ranks 36th out of 124 qualifiers; his 37 home runs during that span, however, rank only 54th.

Now, let's analyze the pitching changes.

By removing wins, we eliminate the potential of frustration over poor-fortune seasons such as Cliff Lee's 6-win 2012. Lee was the year's poster boy for bad luck in the category; he managed 21 quality starts (17th-most in the majors), 12 games of at least seven innings and two earned runs or fewer (14th-most), and five games of at least eight innings and zero or one earned run (10th-most). Yet Lee's wins total was low by historic proportions; he set a new all-time record for fewest wins by any pitcher who made at least 30 starts, struck out 200 hitters and had an ERA below 3.25. In fact, only two times in 399 seasons all-time that met those criteria did a pitcher win fewer than 10: Nolan Ryan's 1987 (8 wins) was the only other time.

It's the addition of quality starts that most often raises fantasy owners' eyebrows. I'm not lauding it as a change resulting in perfection; I am suggesting it as a change to better our measures of starting-pitching skill.

Most commonly, critics of the quality start claim that, at its minimum qualification -- a starter must pitch at least six innings while affording no more than three earned runs -- a pitcher's ERA is 4.50. Perhaps those minimums should be more rigid, but criticizing the minimum qualification for a quality start isn't a compelling argument if you're also a proponent of Wins. Consider that 318 out of the 2,484 quality starts accrued by all pitchers in 2012, or 13 percent, resulted in a single-game ERA of 4.00 or greater. By comparison, 292 out of the 1,738 wins tallied by starting pitchers in 2012, or 17 percent, resulted in single-game ERAs of 4.00 or greater. In fact, 186 of those wins -- a whopping 11 percent of all starters' wins -- resulted in single-game ERAs higher than 4.50 -- the worst ERA a pitcher could have while qualifying for a quality start. Heck, 24 times last season a starting pitcher won despite sporting a single-game ERA of 9.00 or higher!

Wins are also inherently fluky when you're talking about those awarded to relief pitchers. Last season, relievers were responsible for 692 total wins. Of those 692, 50 were "earned" by relievers who faced only one batter; 57 were "earned" by relievers who had single-game ERAs of 9.00 or higher; and 38 were "earned" by relievers who both blew a save and allowed at least one run.

The addition of innings pitched is a cap-tip to one of the most increasingly appreciated skills of a pitcher during the fantasy baseball era: generating outs. Remember, innings pitched is a direct calculation of outs recorded by a pitcher, innings pitched times three equaling his number of outs recorded. A pitcher has but two goals when he's on the mound: record outs and prevent runs.

Why pitchers haven't received more credit historically for their innings pitched in fantasy baseball is puzzling, but as the real game evolves, pitching staffs become more specialized and efficiency of outs recorded further drives managerial strategy, individual pitchers' innings totals will greater reflect their contributions. A quarter-century ago, in 1988, 37 pitchers totaled 215 innings or more, and 20 of them had WHIPs higher than 1.20. Last season, 12 pitchers worked at least 215 innings, and only Clayton Richard (1.23) had a WHIP higher than 1.20.


Finally, the rationale for switching strikeouts from a counting to rate category is twofold: One, it helps counterbalance the loss in value of relief pitchers as a whole due to the addition of a sixth category, and two, it helps diminish somewhat the streamer's strategy. In a six-category system in which the only categories a relief pitcher can influence are saves, ERA, WHIP and strikeouts, relievers as a whole would have their value depressed to the point where it can be argued that only Craig Kimbrel/Kenley Jansen types, legitimate 100-K relievers, would be the ones who warrant a top-100 pick in a draft. Fantasy owners would also load their lineups with starters, diminishing the value of an important part of today's game: bullpens.

Granted, moving to K/9 ratio hurts the low-strikeout relievers: Jim Johnson (5.37 K's per nine) and Jonathan Broxton (6.98) were two of the four closers with at least 25 saves in 2012 to average fewer than eight K's per nine innings. That'd have been true whether K's were counting or ratio, however, and in defense of it being a rate statistic, a high-rate closer like Kimbrel (major league-leading 16.66 K's per nine) actually gains value in this new format. A pitcher like Kimbrel, frankly, deserves more credit than he seems to receive. So does a pitcher like Jansen, whose impact in K's per nine would be greater than in total strikeouts, meaning that even if he doesn't close a single game in 2013, he'd be a more appreciated commodity in a K/9 system.

As for mitigating the streamer's strategy, remember that strategy mostly targets volume -- counting numbers like wins and strikeouts -- or 50 percent of the four categories that a starting pitcher influences in traditional Rotisserie. In a six-category system with three ratio departments, a starting pitcher can influence only five, and 40 percent of those (two of five) are quantitative: quality starts and innings pitched. And since quality starts has a direct connection with ERA and WHIP, it becomes more important to pick quality, rather than quantity, of matchups.

Again, the above Rotisserie 6x6 proposal isn't meant to be a perfect system; rather it is pitched a potential improvement upon traditional Rotisserie 5x5. It is a creative change for fantasy owners seeking a more modernized scoring system, or who have been frustrated by the shortcomings of batting average or wins. There might be -- and presumably is -- an ultimately more ideal scoring system to come in the future, and maybe this is step one towards it. Frankly, if baseball continues to shift its focus from batting average and closer to advanced statistics like wins above replacement (WAR), a first step will soon be mandatory in order to keep fantasy baseball up with the times.

Tradition is understandable in the game of baseball: Look at the past fall's Miguel Cabrera versus Mike Trout American League Most Valuable Player debate. Some fantasy owners will prefer to stick with tried-and-true categories in the absence of a proven-perfect alternative. This is all about what statistics you value and what gives you enjoyment. That choice is yours.

I will, for example, play in no fewer than four Rotisserie 5x5 scoring leagues in the 2013 season, and I will garner no less enjoyment in those -- longstanding expert leagues like the League of Alternative Baseball Reality (LABR) and Tout Wars as notable examples -- than in my Rotisserie 6x6 league, entering its second year.

That Rotisserie 6x6 league, however, was well received by its ownership base last season, and has the added advantage of having spawned much open debate about player skills and the value of certain statistics in the game of baseball.

And that's really the fun of all this, isn't it?

[h=4]Rankings for Rotisserie 6x6/Quality Starts/OBP-SLG leagues[/h]
In order to help owners new to either Rotisserie 6x6 leagues, or formats that count quality starts, on-base percentage and/or slugging percentage, listed below are adjusted top 50 hitter and starting pitcher rankings for this column's proposed scoring system. The column to the left ranks hitters if on-base percentage and slugging percentage replaced batting average, while the column to the right ranks starting pitchers if quality starts replaced wins, innings pitched was added and K/9 ratio replaced strikeouts.

Note that starter pitching rankings wouldn't be terribly different in a league that only replaces wins with quality starts; these rankings serve the dual purpose of helping owners seeking help in either format.


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<center> 6x6 Hitter Rankings</center><center> 6x6 Starting Pitcher Rankings</center>
<center> Rank </center> Player <center> Team </center><center> 5x5 </center><center> Rank </center> Player <center> Team </center><center> 5x5 </center>
1 Ryan Braun Mil 1 1 Clayton Kershaw LAD 2
2 Miguel Cabrera Det 2 2 Justin Verlander Det 1
3 Robinson Cano NYY 6 3 Cliff Lee Phi 8
4 Mike Trout LAA 3 4 Stephen Strasburg Wsh 4
5 Prince Fielder Det 10 5 Felix Hernandez Sea 3
6 Andrew McCutchen Pit 4 6 Cole Hamels Phi 7
7 Joey Votto Cin 9 7 David Price TB 5
8 Jose Bautista Tor 12 8 Matt Cain SF 6
9 Matt Kemp LAD 5 9 Jered Weaver LAA 10
10 Giancarlo Stanton Mia 13 10 Zack Greinke LAD 12
11 Carlos Gonzalez Col 7 11 Gio Gonzalez Wsh 9
12 Albert Pujols LAA 8 12 Madison Bumgarner SF 11
13 Buster Posey SF 16 13 R.A. Dickey Tor 13
14 Josh Hamilton LAA 18 14 Adam Wainwright StL 14
15 Evan Longoria TB 20 15 Yu Darvish Tex 18
16 Troy Tulowitzki Col 21 16 Chris Sale CWS 19
17 Edwin Encarnacion Tor 19 17 Roy Halladay Phi 17
18 Justin Upton Atl 11 18 CC Sabathia NYY 16
19 David Wright NYM 15 19 Kris Medlen Atl 25
20 Adrian Beltre Tex 22 20 Johnny Cueto Cin 15
21 Hanley Ramirez LAD 17 21 Jordan Zimmermann Wsh 21
22 Jay Bruce Cin 28 22 James Shields KC 23
23 Jason Heyward Atl 14 23 Max Scherzer Det 24
24 Ian Kinsler Tex 23 24 Matt Moore TB 22
25 Curtis Granderson NYY 29 25 Yovani Gallardo Mil 26
26 Dustin Pedroia Bos 24 26 Mat Latos Cin 20
27 Matt Holliday StL 33 27 Josh Johnson Tor 28
28 Billy Butler KC 31 28 Doug Fister Det 31
29 Jose Reyes Tor 27 29 Dan Haren Wsh 27
30 Adam Jones Bal 26 30 Anibal Sanchez Det 35
31 Ben Zobrist TB 39 31 Ian Kennedy Ari 32
32 Starlin Castro ChC 25 32 Brandon Morrow Tor 33
33 Jacoby Ellsbury Bos 30 33 Lance Lynn StL 30
34 Adrian Gonzalez LAD 41 34 Jake Peavy CWS 34
35 Carlos Santana Cle 57 35 Hiroki Kuroda NYY 29
36 Brandon Phillips Cin 35 36 Jeff Samardzija ChC 45
37 Chase Headley SD 38 37 Brett Anderson Oak 36
38 Austin Jackson Det 36 38 Matt Garza ChC 53
39 Mark Teixeira NYY 47 39 Jonathon Niese NYM 42
40 Ryan Zimmerman Wsh 43 40 C.J. Wilson LAA 47
41 Bryce Harper Wsh 44 41 Tim Lincecum SF 37
42 B.J. Upton Atl 32 42 Jarrod Parker Oak 38
43 David Ortiz Bos 70 43 Ryan Vogelsong SF 50
44 Yoenis Cespedes Oak 45 44 Mike Minor Atl 44
45 Ian Desmond Wsh 40 45 Jaime Garcia StL 51
46 Jimmy Rollins Phi 46 46 Jon Lester Bos 40
47 Josh Willingham Min 67 47 Ryan Dempster Bos 56
48 Allen Craig StL 48 48 Homer Bailey Cin 57
49 Yadier Molina StL 49 49 Matt Harvey NYM 67
50 Ike Davis NYM 68 50 Kyle Lohse FA 59
"5x5" is Tristan's ranking of the player in traditional Rotisserie 5x5 leagues.

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wow, this is a great sub forum hacheman....im a big fantasy player so will def be in here sharing my thoughts. i use projectprospect to look at whats going on in the minors..
 

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Top 100 for 2013: Mike Trout No. 1
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Eric Karabell

As the saying goes, fantasy drafts aren't necessarily won in the first round -- or early rounds, for that matter -- but they can be lost.

I don't buy that notion anymore. All the picks count, and team depth is critical, but many owners who chose Matt Kemp, Troy Tulowitzki or Jacoby Ellsbury in the first round in 2012 still won leagues. Plus, who knows where the next Mike Trout will come from? He didn't come in the first 100 picks of any draft I saw last year.

Anyway, here is my current top 100, pre-Valentine's Day edition. Share with your significant other and start your draft prep now! I've made minor changes to my top 20 from last month, as a big trade adjusted the value of one future MVP outfielder, and let's face it, in some cases my opinion has flat-out changed following our recent fantasy baseball rankings summit. Feel free to try to convince me a player is ranked too well or too poorly! A wise fantasy owner is always willing to consider not only alternative methods and strategies but also whether new information is relevant. So here we go, my top 100, though it's hardly written in stone at this point -- except at No. 1!

1. Mike Trout, OF, Los Angeles Angels: I agree there are more reasons to make the next guy No. 1, but that doesn't make it right. The extra stolen bases sway me.
2. Ryan Braun, OF, Milwaukee Brewers: Certainly a safe top pick; don't pay attention to the off-field stuff.
3. Miguel Cabrera, 3B, Detroit Tigers: Oddly enough, you don't hear much support for him being in the top spot. It's not like he'll become Casey McGehee this year or anything.
4. Andrew McCutchen, OF, Pittsburgh Pirates: The fourth pick will be the most interesting pick this year. This is the lone Pirate on this list, and he's generously ranked because I think lineup protection is an absolute myth.
5. Matt Kemp, OF, Los Angeles Dodgers: All reports suggest he's healthy. Then again, does anyone say they're not healthy this time of year?
6. Robinson Cano, 2B, New York Yankees: Not saying he'll bolt after the season, but would you still draft him this high if he were, say, a Mariner or Padre?
7. Albert Pujols, 1B, Angels: Looked just fine statistically after a poor April last season. He's still the top first baseman, and comparisons to Alex Rodriguez in terms of his future are just foolish.
8. Troy Tulowitzki, SS, Colorado Rockies: OK, so he won't play all 162 games, but he did go .300-30-100 as recently as 2011 and can do it again.
9. Carlos Gonzalez, OF, Rockies: Coors Field -- the awesome gift that keeps on giving.
10. Justin Upton, OF, Atlanta Braves: I was on his bandwagon a year ago, and his 2012 wasn't that bad. He'll be terrific in Atlanta. The trade bumps him up a bit.
11. Jose Bautista, OF, Toronto Blue Jays: Be a pessimist if you like, but I think his wrist is fine and 40 homers are pending.
12. Prince Fielder, 1B, Tigers: I bet most people think he hit 40 home runs and knocked in 120 runs last year. He didn't come close to that.
13. Joey Votto, 1B, Cincinnati Reds: Would be nice if he had more than one 30-homer season before making him a surefire first-rounder.
14. Giancarlo Stanton, OF, Miami Marlins: Trust me, there wasn't a ton of lineup protection for him last year and he still mashed. Stanton's numbers won't disappoint.
15. Evan Longoria, 3B, Tampa Bay Rays: If third base was as shallow for fantasy as shortstop is, then yeah, he might be in my first round too. Longoria will win an AL MVP award in the next few seasons.
16. David Wright, 3B, New York Mets: To some, it looked silly putting Wright in my top 20 a year ago, but I did, and he came through.
17. Justin Verlander, SP, Tigers: He's awesome and all, but I'm not going to be drafting a pitcher in Round 2. I do acknowledge his value, though.
18. Clayton Kershaw, SP, Los Angeles Dodgers
19. Hanley Ramirez, SS/3B, Los Angeles Dodgers: For those who think he's done, I would say a 24-homer, 92-RBI, 21-steal season is anything but.
20. Bryce Harper, OF, Washington Nationals: Frankly, this rank might not be high enough. Watch Harper vie for NL MVP honors in 2012. He is that good.
21. Dustin Pedroia, 2B, Boston Red Sox: Yes, I do pay attention to position scarcity in drafts. It's not like Pedroia is Omar Infante, after all. But think about what you're stuck with if you don't get a middle infielder in the first 10 rounds.
22. Jose Reyes, SS, Blue Jays: The argument against him is his durability. Um, he played in 160 games last season. Next.
23. Adrian Beltre, 3B, Texas Rangers
24. Josh Hamilton, OF, Angels
25. Jason Heyward, OF, Atlanta Braves: There's no reason why he can't continue stealing bases, and more plate discipline will help his batting average.
26. David Price, SP, Tampa Bay Rays
27. Edwin Encarnacion, 1B, Toronto Blue Jays: Yeah, that 2012 season was real, and it was spectacular.
28. Ian Kinsler, 2B, Texas Rangers: Fine with me if he adds first-base or outfield eligibility to make room for Jurickson Profar. After all, it shouldn't hurt his power/speed numbers.
29. Felix Hernandez, SP, Seattle Mariners
30. Starlin Castro, SS, Chicago Cubs: He's 22. Question for those of you who are older than that: How focused were you at that age? Castro is going to develop more power and get even better.
31. Buster Posey, C, San Francisco Giants: Go ahead and take a catcher in the first round, but don't complain when annual "catcher things," like an injury that a guy plays through or general fatigue, crop up. They always do. Last year's first half (.289 average, 10 homers, 43 RBIs) is far more repeatable than his second half (.385 with a .423 BABIP, 14 homers, 60 RBIs).
32. Cole Hamels, SP, Philadelphia Phillies
33. Stephen Strasburg, SP, Nationals: Who has two thumbs and thinks the Nationals will be really good this season? This guy! Strasburg isn't as much of an injury risk as most believe.
34. Jay Bruce, OF, Reds: This underrated power option seems to be slipping in drafts for no legit reason.
35. Cliff Lee, SP, Phillies: This year he'll win six games by mid-May. Don't look at wins when drafting pitchers, ever.
36. Curtis Granderson, OF, Yankees: Can't say I want a guy hitting .240 on my teams, but his other numbers are nice.
37. Brandon Phillips, 2B, Reds: Hits 18 home runs every year. No, really. And he still runs plenty.
38. Ben Zobrist, 2B/SS/OF, Rays: The multi-eligibility thing will really help when you're dealing with injuries in July. Trust me on that.
39. Adrian Gonzalez, 1B, Dodgers
40. B.J. Upton, OF, Braves: A fantasy owner can prepare for his low batting average. Getting a power/speed combo like this is still rare. He and Drew Stubbs are the only players with at least 14 home runs and 30 stolen bases each of the past three seasons.
41. Matt Cain, SP, Giants
42. Chase Headley, 3B, San Diego Padres: His second half was a bit Posey-like (unsustainable), but still, a 25-homer, 100-RBI third baseman is worth a lot.
43. Adam Jones, OF, Baltimore Orioles
44. Jacoby Ellsbury, OF, Red Sox: What's more likely, 150 games or 20 home runs? Probably neither, but if he runs like he used to and hits double-digit home runs, he's worth more than Cleveland's new center fielder (No. 62 on this list).
45. Matt Holliday, OF, St. Louis Cardinals: Fantasy owners love to downgrade the older fellas.
46. Zack Greinke, SP, Dodgers: Gotta love the new home ballpark, at the very least. Here comes the second-best season of his career.
47. Allen Craig, 1B, St. Louis Cardinals: Pretty great value last year, solid fifth-rounder.
48. Billy Butler, 1B, Kansas City Royals: Doubles generally turn into home runs. Thanks, Billy.
49. Brett Lawrie, 3B, Blue Jays: No, I'm not even close to giving up on a potential 20/20 third baseman.
50. Yu Darvish, SP, Rangers: Top-10 pitcher likely to contend for the strikeout title.
51. Jason Kipnis, 2B, Cleveland Indians: More power, less speed. We really would like some consistency too.
52. Mark Teixeira, 1B, Yankees: Hatred for this guy has gone way overboard. Sure, he might not hit .260, but his power is still there.
53. Austin Jackson, OF, Tigers: He says he'll run more this year. I'm just hoping the BABIP gods continue to support him.
54. Adam Wainwright, SP, Cardinals
55. Ryan Zimmerman, 3B, Nationals
56. Jered Weaver, SP, Angels: Just remember both Verlander and Kershaw lost seven wins off their 2011 totals. That could easily happen to Weaver.
57. Yoenis Cespedes, OF, Oakland Athletics
58. Yadier Molina, C, St. Louis Cardinals: The power is real. I'm not saying he'll hit 30 home runs this season, but this is your No. 2-ranked catcher, and he's a better value per draft position than the No. 1.
59. Jimmy Rollins, SS, Phillies
60. Ian Desmond, SS, Nationals
61. Desmond Jennings, OF, Rays: He'll run and hit for power, and I refuse to presume he'll always hit for a low batting average. He's just 26.
62. Michael Bourn, OF, Indians: A nice player, but overrated nonetheless. There's hardly a guarantee he'll steal 50 bases again.
63. Madison Bumgarner, SP, Giants
64. Alex Gordon, OF, Royals: Durable and versatile, try not to read into the drop in his counting numbers. He could easily raise them again.
65. R.A. Dickey, SP, Blue Jays
66. Aaron Hill, 2B, Arizona Diamondbacks: Better fantasy option than most realize.
67. Martin Prado, 3B/OF, Diamondbacks: Him, too.
68. Roy Halladay, SP, Phillies: Tremendous bargain in the seventh round if healthy. Remember, he was fantasy's top pitcher off the draft board last year. Oh, so now he's too old.
69. Craig Kimbrel, RP, Braves: He'll probably go four rounds earlier in your drafts. No, I don't see him falling off a statistical cliff this year, but I'm fine building a bullpen a different way.
70. Matt Moore, SP, Rays: Still a pending fantasy monster. Get in now in dynasty formats.
71. David Ortiz, DH, Red Sox: Ignore the top designated hitter if you must because it lessens team versatility, but you'll be awfully disappointed in the power options available after Round 10.
72. Shane Victorino, OF, Red Sox: Still has pop, still runs and still has a job. I'm not saying he'll mash right-handed pitching ever again, but he's far from done.
73. Aramis Ramirez, 3B, Brewers
74. Kris Medlen, SP, Braves: A great mystery, frankly. Can make a case for him being top-30 or outside the top 100.
75. Paul Goldschmidt, 1B, Diamondbacks: Arizona will be just fine without Upton.
76. Gio Gonzalez, SP, Nationals
77. Joe Mauer, C, Minnesota Twins: This guy is still more likely to contend for a batting title than any other catcher.
78. Pablo Sandoval, 3B, Giants
79. Chris Sale, SP, Chicago White Sox: Perhaps his left arm feels awesome, but I'm still worried about his durability.
80. Alex Rios, OF, White Sox: With him, I'm worried he's an every-other-year guy, um, because he's shown it.
81. Shin-Soo Choo, OF, Reds: Center field? Really? That said, I like him and think he can go 20/20 and score many runs.
82. CC Sabathia, SP, Yankees: This rank might scream that I don't like him or that I think he'll get hurt, but remember, I've generally downgraded all pitching. Sabathia does make my top 20 starting pitchers.
83. Asdrubal Cabrera, SS, Indians
84. Carlos Santana, C, Indians: Hey, it's not like the next guy that everyone seems to love hits for a high batting average either. And Santana is the one that walks a ton.
85. Matt Wieters, C, Orioles
86. Eric Hosmer, 1B, Royals: I'm going to regret not keeping him in my top 50. Don't give up on young players that you loved a year prior!
87. Chase Utley, 2B, Phillies: Double digits in home runs and stolen bases every season despite missing all these games. What if he doesn't miss all these games again?
88. Jordan Zimmermann, SP, Nationals
89. Hunter Pence, OF, Giants: A bad half-season and now fantasy owners treat him like Shelley Duncan. Unreal. I think he bounces back.
90. Freddie Freeman, 1B, Braves
91. Johnny Cueto, SP, Reds
92. Paul Konerko, 1B, White Sox: Another old fellow apparently in "steep" decline, except he hit .298 with 26 home runs. Not even close to toast, and he'll fall further than this, but why tempt fate in your drafts?
93. Mat Latos, SP, Reds
94. Elvis Andrus, SS, Rangers: I never thought he'd hit for big power, but this is ridiculous. At least steal 40 bases, Elvis, not half that total.
95. Ike Davis, 1B, Mets
96. Brett Gardner, OF, Yankees: In 2011, he had Bourn-like numbers but could be had at a major discount. And he will again, for some reason.
97. Nelson Cruz, OF, Rangers: Like Pence, Cruz still hits for power, even registering career highs in RBIs and games. Yet he's dropping in all leagues.
98. Jose Altuve, 2B, Houston Astros: An Astro makes it! Middle infielders who hit for average and run are not so easy to find anymore.
99. Melky Cabrera, OF, Blue Jays: A year ago nobody thought Braun, amid PED controversy, could have another great season. Melky isn't nearly as talented, but he's got game.
100. Aroldis Chapman, RP, Reds: He's more likely to save 40 games than pitch 200 innings, but as long as he's healthy, you want him. Draft skills, not roles.
 

hacheman@therx.com
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Top 250 keeper league rankings

By Tristan H. Cockcroft | ESPN.com

Baseball is set to undergo a major change in 2013, as the Houston Astros, members of the National League for 51 seasons, will move to the American League, creating two 15-team leagues and mandating daily interleague play.
Yet, when you think about the 2013 Astros, the first thing to come to your mind is probably not the league switch & it's more likely how they're completely rebuilding and are sure to sport a terrible on-field product. (Don't worry: we'll further address the impact of the Astros' AL move in an upcoming column.)

The Astros' total teardown has been the subject of much chatter the past calendar year, and in every way it parallels, in fantasy, a keeper/dynasty league owner in a rebuilding phase. And in many ways, what the Astros are doing lends credibility to such a fantasy strategy. Consider that, in a calendar year, the Astros went from the No. 27 (2012) to the No. 4 (2013) organization in Keith Law's farm system rankings thanks to an influx of talent including draft picks Carlos Correa and Lance McCullers Jr. and trade acquisitions Jarred Cosart and Robbie Grossman.
That's not to say that the Astros' long-range plan is working, rather that it seems to be working, because we won't know for sure whether many of their prospects will pan out until several years from now. That is the risk for them -- and the risk for a keeper-league rebuilder.
Granted, in fantasy, we'd all prefer to be our league's Alex Anthopoulos -- referring to the Toronto Blue Jays general manager -- getting the green light to spend, spend, spend in our quest for a 2013 title. In every keeper league there'll always be an Anthopoulos & but there'll also always be a Jeff Luhnow -- he's the Houston Astros general manager, for those who didn't know.
This column is for those Luhnows, those keeper-league owners who need to be as mindful of 2014, 2015, 2016 and beyond as 2013, those tear-it-down strategists or simply those who want to infuse some youth into an aging roster.
These are my annual Top 250 Keeper Rankings, a "price guide" of sorts for keeper or dynasty leagues, whether previously existing or just starting from scratch. In many ways, they'd be the fantasy equivalent of Luhnow's personal cheat sheet.
[h=3]The rankings formula[/h]You know the drill: One cannot compose a set of keeper/dynasty league rankings that's one-size-fits-all. (On an aside, I therefore suppose it's fitting that I provide our keeper ranks; in terms of hat sizes, it's one-size-fits-all-except-me.) The reason is that few such leagues are identical in structure. Consider the variables:
" Player pricing: Do you draft or auction players, and do you keep players in the round they are picked, the auction price you paid, or are prices irrelevant?
" Number of keepers: Can you keep 1, 3, 10 or perhaps your entire roster, and must teams retain the same number of players?
" Length of contract: Is there a limitation on number of seasons you can keep a player, and is there annual price inflation?
" Farm teams: Does your league have them, and are these players able to be freely retained or held over at low cost from year to year?
" Competitive state: Are you an Anthopolous, Luhnow or somewhere in between -- say, Chris Antonelli, the general manager of the Cleveland Indians?
It's up to you to do your homework assessing each of these valuation factors. For instance, a $1 Wil Myers might be a slam-dunk keeper in your league over a $31 Matt Holliday, despite the fact that Holliday ranks 10 spots higher in the list below and is the only one of the two guaranteed an Opening Day roster spot.
This is the player valuation formula I use:
" 2013 performance: 25 percent.
" 2014 performance: 25 percent.
" 2015 performance: 25 percent.
" 2016 performance and beyond: 25 percent.
My rationale for weighting 2013 equally to 2016 and beyond is simple: We already provide rankings, projections and profiles for approximately 1,000 players that were designed to help your title quest this year. While I might weight 2013 more heavily in a keeper league drafting fresh -- I always prefer to win sooner than later -- this page is meant to serve fantasy owners projecting players over several seasons. If your goal is to win now -- kudos to you, Anthopolous -- our redraft tools are excellent for your needs.
[h=3]Tristan's top 250 keeper rankings[/h]Note: Position eligibility is determined based upon a minimum of 20 games, otherwise the position the player appeared at most in 2012. Players' listed ages are as of April 1, 2013. Players' rankings in past keeper lists are also provided: "Pre" are rankings from that year's preseason, while "Mid" are rankings from midseason of the year in question.
<style type="text/css">.mod-inline td img {margin: 0px;}</style>
<center>Rank</center>Player<center>Team</center><center>Elig.
Pos.</center>
<center>Age</center><center>2012
Mid</center>
<center>2012
Pre</center>
<center>2011
Mid</center>
<center>2011
Pre</center>
<center>2010
Mid</center>
<center>2010
Pre</center>
1Mike TroutLAAOF2159862------
2Ryan BraunMilOF2931211103
3Miguel CabreraDet3B29423226
4Andrew McCutchenPitOF2621716253945
5Giancarlo StantonMiaOF2328101848125--
6Matt KempLADOF2874516164
7Bryce HarperWshOF20168796------
8Robinson CanoNYY2B3081196634
9Justin UptonAtlOF25931014218
10Prince FielderDet1B2812181518195
11Carlos GonzalezColOF276121392786
12Joey VottoCin1B2917115924
13Buster PoseySFC/1B264357532664160
14Jason HeywardAtlOF232447243253135
15Clayton KershawLADSP25151620303355
16Albert PujolsLAA1B/DH331766332
17Stephen StrasburgWshSP242155601684196
18Troy TulowitzkiColSS28135182315
19Justin VerlanderDetSP30312032494227
20Felix HernandezSeaSP261198121217
21Starlin CastroChCSS23223039136----
22David WrightNYM3B301826197511
23Evan LongoriaTB3B/DH271087477
24Jay BruceCinOF252324215113481
25David PriceTBSP273627283537110
26Hanley RamirezLAD3B/SS2925154111
27Dustin PedroiaBos2B29292131285225
28Ian KinslerTex2B30192850686319
29Josh HamiltonLAAOF31325936223666
30Adam JonesBalOF27354564959950
31Cole HamelsPhiSP29382325479368
32Jose ReyesTorSS29852523383818
33M. BumgarnerSFSP233458113147169181
34Brett LawrieTor3B232032133------
35Jose BautistaTorOF3214191765116--
36Matt CainSFSP28265082564477
37Billy ButlerKCDH/1B266170686711551
38Matt WietersBalC264142988712479
39Yoenis CespedesOakOF/DH2797139--------
40Adrian BeltreTex3B/DH335844906171146
41Zack GreinkeLADSP29403356545521
42Gio GonzalezWshSP2749100111197----
43Paul GoldschmidtAri1B258996--------
44Eric HosmerKC1B23302947210----
45Edwin EncarnacionTorDH/1B3055----------
46Jered WeaverLAASP303334385235100
47Carlos SantanaCleC/DH/1B2650384450127194
48Matt MooreTBSP236048168------
49Ryan ZimmermanWsh3B28945314203026
50Jacoby EllsburyBosOF29371426796522
51Chase HeadleySD3B28132171206194175--
52Austin JacksonDetOF2653143157191148--
53Pablo SandovalSF3B2648541089612830
54B.J. UptonAtlOF28757186717528
55Adrian GonzalezLAD1B30571312102635
56Manny MachadoBal3B20153225--------
57Ian DesmondWshSS2771--130132----
58Curtis GrandersonNYYOF323939497610262
59Elvis AndrusTexSS24273529665085
60Matt HollidayStLOF33456742312938
61Freddie FreemanAtl1B238280160223----
62D. JenningsTBOF266537120181--173
63Yu DarvishTexSP2687104246------
64Craig KimbrelAtlRP24636199165----
65J. ZimmermannWshSP26516885160----
66Anthony RizzoChC1B23109231151------
67Chris SaleCWSSP2466150203204----
68Jason KipnisCle2B2544136143------
69Johnny CuetoCinSP2770157116169141--
70Wil MyersTBOF2283199224------
71Aroldis ChapmanCinRP2569138146162--196
72Mark TrumboLAAOF/DH/1B2759----------
73Joe MauerMinC/DH/1B295210546192010
74Jose AltuveHou2B2274245--------
75Mike MoustakasKC3B24469987128----
76Asdrubal CabreraCleSS27546081203--121
77Adam WainwrightStLSP317685932051463
78Ben ZobristTBOF/2B/SS311261111241056980
79Alex GordonKCOF297731161------
80Kris MedlenAtlRP/SP27------------
81Michael BournCleOF305679170138137150
82Mat LatosCinSP256469584046178
83Brandon PhillipsCin2B31867674853441
84Cliff LeePhiSP34814345271860
85Allen CraigStL1B/OF28104----------
86CC SabathiaNYYSP32475143293237
87Salvador PerezKCC22103----------
88Shin-Soo ChooCinOF30726566334573
89Yovani GallardoMilSP27914965594957
90Ike DavisNYM1B26117117134144180--
91Yadier MolinaStLC3079214--------
92Will MiddlebrooksBos3B2499----------
93Alex RiosCWSOF32122--1986931116
94Brandon MorrowTorSP28113170138103135--
95Jurickson ProfarTex2B20240----------
96Jesus MonteroSeaDH/C2311073114150----
97Max ScherzerDetSP2817414210286162125
98Mark TeixeiraNYY1B32423627231316
99Brett AndersonOakSP251751191599713383
100Melky CabreraTorOF28111175--------
101Josh ReddickOakOF26127----------
102R.A. DickeyTorSP38193----------
103Wilin RosarioColC24215----------
104James ShieldsKCSP3120382184245189179
105Aaron HillAri2B31166--20910616164
106Roy HalladayPhiSP35106224015833
107Oscar TaverasStLOF20204----------
108Ian KennedyAriSP2812594187237----
109Rickie WeeksMil2B3017364376476184
110Josh JohnsonTorSP2916515261451148
111Danny EspinosaWsh2B/SS25124164118243----
112Tim LincecumSFSP281404022171513
113Billy HamiltonCinSS22235----------
114Jeremy HellicksonTBSP251488479129146--
115Todd FrazierCin3B/1B27------------
116Martin PradoAriOF/3B291211801158884--
117Jason MotteStLRP30146166--------
118Jarrod ParkerOakSP24115238230------
119Dexter FowlerColOF27116169--186191123
120Carl CrawfordLADOF31147833013414
121Jimmy RollinsPhiSS3410812817611112344
122Anibal SanchezDetSP29170133105215----
123Cameron MaybinSDOF258063------157
124Pedro AlvarezPit3B2614119211077113200
125Paul KonerkoCWS1B/DH37789592172110--
126Nelson CruzTexOF32968155374775
127J. PapelbonPhiRP3211410819315488107
128Jon LesterBosSP29984635211729
129Kenley JansenLADRP2584163--------
130Brett GardnerNYYOF2913913215417690--
131Alcides EscobarKCSS26161229235185--137
132Michael MorseSeaOF3111992140------
133Shelby MillerStLSP22--135171------
134Jonathan LucroyMilC26156----------
135Ben ReverePhiOF24187209--------
136Mike OltTex1B24160----------
137Rafael SorianoWshRP33189------111183
138Carlos GomezMilOF27------------
139Brandon BeachyAtlSP26248130208------
140Shane VictorinoBosOF321298913110414288
141Dustin AckleySea2B251056277125----
142Miguel MonteroAriC29167149139167160126
143Tommy HansonLAASP26739033345140
144David FreeseStL3B2988122--------
145Victor MartinezDetDH/C34207--63818952
146Matt GarzaChCSP299572127102107142
147Carlos BeltranStLOF3593201--216--82
148Addison ReedCWSRP24123208--------
149Kyle SeagerSea3B25185----------
150Neil WalkerPit2B2711212070130----
151Yasmani GrandalSDC24188----------
152Hunter PenceSFOF296841517210676
153Andre EthierLADOF3018216571575943
154Doug FisterDetSP29------------
155Jedd GyorkoSD2B24------------
156Chris DavisBalDH/OF/1B27----------124
157Greg HollandKCRP27------------
158Nick MarkakisBalOF29154912049811836
159Howard KendrickLAA2B291357812812413294
160Brian McCannAtlC291286657608642
161Jake PeavyCWSSP31145--------130
162Nick SwisherCleOF/1B32222187--195131--
163Gerrit ColePitSP22183172--------
164Lance LynnStLSP25164----------
165Tommy MiloneOakSP26------------
166Aramis RamirezMil3B3416311621010710370
167Trevor BauerCleSP22101186225------
168Starling MartePitOF24------------
169A. SimmonsAtlSS23217----------
170Jeff SamardzijaChCSP28206----------
171Matt HarveyNYMSP24------------
172Ernesto FrieriLAARP27133----------
173Dayan ViciedoCWSOF24144233174------
174Travis D'arnaudNYMC24200----------
175David OrtizBosDH3767125191163150--
176Brandon BeltSF1B24172147112164----
177Dylan BundyBalSP20136----------
178Huston StreetSDRP29180207202180159136
179Wade MileyAriSP26247----------
180J.J. HardyBalSS30186126--------
181Mike NapoliBosC/1B319056242119165177
182Homer BaileyCinSP26--246197234----
183Adam LaRocheWsh1B33------188152--
184Joel HanrahanBosRP31107145218226----
185Dan UgglaAtl2B331301031453974117
186Jonathon NieseNYMSP26------------
187Dee GordonLADSS24118184216------
188Miguel SanoMin3B19------------
189Zack CozartCinSS27210204--------
190Corey HartMil1B/OF3113114014811392--
191Derek HollandTexSP26155129194232--199
192Adam EatonAriOF24------------
193Jed LowrieOakSS28143----------
194Drew StorenWshRP2514277101135193--
195Zack WheelerNYMSP22158----------
196Dan HarenWshSP322085275636231
197Jim JohnsonBalRP29150----------
198Matt HarrisonTexSP27197----------
199Tyler SkaggsAriSP21241244--------
200Colby RasmusTorOF2662127726266138
201Phil HughesNYYSP261712171569282151
202Kendrys MoralesSeaDH/1B2916814110346--54
203C.J. WilsonLAASP32100113181206----
204Mariano RiveraNYYRP43--21315210167112
205Hiroki KurodaNYYSP38------189----
206Erick AybarLAASS29211137163219173167
207Mike MinorAtlSP25--223220------
208Alejandro De AzaCWSOF28149----------
209Taijuan WalkerSeaSP20216----------
210Fernando RodneyTBRP36228----------
211Alex AvilaDetC26--97167------
212Josh RutledgeColSS23------------
213Trevor PlouffeMin3B26138----------
214Christian YelichMiaOF21220235--------
215Jean SeguraMilSS23250--237------
216Chase UtleyPhi2B3423113459242512
217Yonder AlonsoSD1B25205182--------
218Chris PerezCleRP27202--172115177--
219Josh WillinghamMinOF/DH34176------176--
220Bruce RondonDetRP22------------
221Derek JeterNYYSS/DH38181181--1345658
222Tom WilhelmsenSeaRP29------------
223Xander BogaertsBosSS20------------
224Jaime GarciaStLSP26232131132143104--
225Anthony RendonWsh3B22--248231------
226Lorenzo CainKCOF26------------
227James McDonaldPitSP2892----------
228John AxfordMilRP30196102238187----
229D. DeShields Jr.Hou2B20------------
230Neftali FelizTexSP2415186848477152
231J.J. PutzAriRP36--222245198----
232Michael PinedaNYYSP242267552202----
233Carlos MartinezStLSP21223----------
234Matt JoyceTBOF28190183207------
235J.P. ArencibiaTorC27----164224----
236Ryan HowardPhi1B3320910173412220
237Sergio RomoSFRP30------------
238Gordon BeckhamCWS2B26157228100749453
239Trevor CahillAriSP2519812188121114189
240Nick CastellanosDetOF21243----------
241Alexi OgandoTexRP29--218223------
242Julio TeheranAtlSP22162173109------
243Daniel MurphyNYM2B28219----------
244Everth CabreraSDSS26----------190
245Michael CuddyerColOF/1B34102159--228166131
246Joe NathanTexRP38230----200--97
247Lonnie ChisenhallCle3B24225160158------
248Daniel HudsonAriSP26--9397166----
249Jonathan BroxtonCinRP28227--2291264887
250Hyun-Jin RyuLADSP26------------

<thead>
</thead><tbody>
</tbody>


[h=3]On pitching in general[/h]As always, I recommend a keeper-league owner build his or her roster around hitting first and second, taking a more conservative approach to constructing a pitching staff. It is for that reason that only five pitchers -- all starters -- placed among my top 25, and only 27 in my top 100.

Only one true closer, Craig Kimbrel, cracked my top 100. (Closer-turned-starter Aroldis Chapman was seven spots behind Kimbrel, and to note, he'd rank approximately the same even if he returns to the closer role.)
Addressing the closers first, the position's volatility in 2012 alone serves evidence why it's a flimsy strategy to build around them in a keeper league. Consider that, in my 2012 preseason Keeper Top 250, Drew Storen was the No. 2 closer at 77th overall, John Axford was the No. 3 closer at 102nd overall, Jordan Walden was the No. 5 closer at No. 109 overall and Brian Wilson was the No. 6 closer at No. 115th overall. Every one of them suffered a significant drop in keeper stock, and Walden and Wilson didn't even make this year's cut.
Ultimately, all it takes is one managerial decision to vault a closer 100 spots or more in this kind of rankings set, and Storen's example might be best: As the ball dropped on New Year's, he might have ranked as high as 137th on this list. Then Rafael Soriano signed a two-year deal with Storen's Washington Nationals, and Soriano is the one you'll find at No. 137.
As for the starters, while I'd argue that in today's increasingly pitching-rich game, ace starters have greater keeper-league value, let's not forget that the career shelf life of such a pitcher can be short. Using the 2012 top 250 as example yet again, Roy Halladay (No. 4 starter, No. 22 player overall), Tim Lincecum (Nos. 9 and 40) and Jon Lester (Nos. 11 and 46) have long-term projections considerably lower today than they did at the time that column was published.
[h=3]On Bryce Harper[/h]
i

Harper
There is no greater keeper-league debate entering 2013 than the value of Bryce Harper. The No. 3 selection in our January dynasty mock draft, Harper makes as compelling a case for a No. 1 ranking in this list as he has enough risk to place as low as 15th. I'm on record as being one of the more conservative regarding Harper's 2013 expectations -- his young age (he's 20) makes his chances of an adjustment period non-zero, and I'd argue by a decent chunk -- but there are many who are supremely confident in his chances at a top-10 overall season.
This was my Harper summation during our fantasy summit: "I'm somewhat cautious about his 2013, feeling that applying Mike Trout's age-20 breakthrough is dangerous to directly parallel, but if you asked me today to lock in my 2014 overall top 10, Harper would unquestionably be a part of it."
To help you make adjustments to your own keeper rankings, if you believe that Harper is a top-10 overall player for 2013, then he'd be the No. 2 name on the above list. If you believe he is a top-25 overall player, then he'd be third or fourth (depending upon how far into that top 25). I ranked Harper 63rd for 2013, and that's the thinking behind his No. 7 rank in the list above.
[h=3]Miscellaneous thoughts[/h]" Matt Wieters (38th overall) versus Carlos Santana (47th) was one of my most difficult player-versus-player debates within a single position, and is one of the more important keeper decisions to make. Frankly, the deciding factor was that I'm confident in Wieters' ability to spend his entire career behind the plate; I have enough questions about Santana's defense to wonder whether he'll be a first baseman or a designated hitter by 2016.
" Third base is a position extremely rich in terms of potential keepers, and is responsible for 12 of my top 100, including 10 within my top 56 overall. Heck, I wouldn't be opposed to retaining Todd Frazier (115th overall) or Pedro Alvarez (124th), if the league afforded me enough spots. As the vast majority of the league's third basemen are either in or approaching their primes, and there are so many worth your selection, your strategy at this position is critical.
" Everyone's talking about Wil Myers, Jurickson Profar and even starting pitchers like Shelby Miller and Dylan Bundy as the prospects/2013 rookies to get now in a keeper league, but the player whose projected price-versus-expected return, both this and in future seasons, is most attractive to me is Oscar Taveras (107th overall). All it'd take is an injury to either Matt Holliday or Carlos Beltran plus a hot start by Taveras in Triple-A for him to reach St. Louis, and with his plate coverage and power/speed combination, he could be an instant five-category star.
[h=3]Players who juuuuuust missed[/h]These are not officially my Nos. 251-255 players, nor are they in any particular order. These are merely five players who I had on my initial candidates list but unfortunately were last-minute scratches.
Mike Zunino, Seattle Mariners: The No. 3 overall pick in the 2012 amateur draft, Zunino might have the greatest upside potential of any player excluded from my list. Based on his bat alone he could probably play now in the majors, and since the Mariners aren't exactly rich in catching talent -- defensively speaking, specifically -- there's a chance we might see him this summer. Watch him closely early in the year.
Devin Mesoraco, Cincinnati Reds: Whether your league uses one or two catchers has a bearing on whether he belongs in your top 250, as he was my No. 20 catcher if we went by position. The reason Mesoraco didn't make the cut is that, while his plate discipline remained constant at the big-league level, his bat fell well short of expectations, and injuries were a problem for him in 2012.
Drew Stubbs, Cleveland Indians: I'm simply not a fan, something I've made clear for a few seasons. But in Stubbs' defense, he's a power/speed type entering his age-28 season, and if he gets the at-bats, he'd probably belong in the back end. I simply see the Michael Bourn signing adversely affecting Stubbs the most, and he's the last player I removed from the top 250 following that move.
Kolten Wong, St. Louis Cardinals: He was in my 2012 midseason top 250, ranked 224th, he had .287/.348/.405 rates at Double-A Springfield, and he has a shot at some second-base time in St. Louis this summer. But I look at Wong's profile and wonder whether he'll contribute enough homers and/or steals to consistently warrant mixed-league consideration from 2013-15.
Jonathan Singleton, Houston Astros: Fitting to conclude with an Astros prospect, isn't it? Singleton should see time in Houston later this summer, and he's a patient type who might not need as long to adjust as the average prospect. However, he's set to miss the first 50 games of 2013 following a second violation of the minors' drug policy, and he has a steep platoon split -- more than 200 points lower against lefties than righties.
 

hacheman@therx.com
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Top 20 impact prospects for 2013
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Keith Law

Here's my third annual ranking of the top prospects based solely on their expected impact in 2013, a list that factors in expected roles and playing time as well as my expectations for their immediate performance.

For all the talk and hand-wringing about teams overvaluing their prospects, the reality shown on MLB depth charts right now is that there are almost no rookies currently locked into major league jobs for 2013 -- seven, by my count, if we're talking about just every-day position players, starting pitchers and closers, including two Marlins who have their jobs only by default.

There are a number of rookies contending for jobs this spring, of course, but most of the impact we see from rookies in the majors in 2013 will come from players who are called up in May or more likely June as teams attempt to manipulate service time while giving at-bats and innings to "proven veterans" who "play the right way."

As in previous years, I have excluded players coming from other major professional leagues in Japan and Korea. They are rookies but are too experienced to consider alongside rookies who have come up through MLB farm systems.


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1. Adam Eaton | CF, Arizona Diamondbacks
Eaton has one thing no other top-100 position player prospect has in 2013: a full-time job, most likely playing center field for the Diamondbacks and leading off. While the team loves him because he is scrappy and gritty and plays hard and stuff, he also takes great at-bats, makes hard line-drive contact, and has improved his conditioning and agility to the point that he can handle center field if he improves his reads. A favorable ballpark also will help his candidacy for rookie of the year.
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2. Shelby Miller | RHP, St. Louis Cardinals
Chris Carpenter's injury should give Miller a rotation spot, although he'll face competition from Joe Kelly and fellow rookie Trevor Rosenthal. Miller has the best present arsenal of the three and was dominant after some midyear adjustments to his delivery in 2012. He'll miss a lot of bats even if his command is inconsistent, but I do worry about the somewhat flat fastball making him homer-prone.


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3. Julio Teheran | RHP, Atlanta Braves
Speaking of homer-prone, Teheran can give up the long ball like a champ, even though he has easy plus velocity and turns over a changeup well to help him miss left-handed bats. His breaking ball has always been the main concern in his repertoire; if it even improves to solid-average, he'll have an easier time changing eye levels and keeping hitters off the four-seamer.


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4. Tyler Skaggs | LHP, Arizona Diamondbacks
Skaggs would have to beat out sophomore Pat Corbin to win the last rotation spot in Arizona. Skaggs has far more upside but Corbin seems to have the confidence of Kirk Gibson and his coaching staff after some impressive work as a swingman in 2012. I like Corbin in that swing role going forward -- his velocity improves substantially in relief -- with Skaggs as the full-time starter, even if Corbin has to be Skaggs' caddie to manage both pitchers' innings. Skaggs has the knockout stuff, though, three pitches to potentially miss bats and even some projection remaining.


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5. Trevor Bauer | RHP, Cleveland Indians
I doubt Cleveland acquired Bauer with the intent of sending him down this April, but the Indians do have a number of suspects in camp fighting for the fifth spot, and Bauer's remaining options could put him on the outside, at least temporarily. I expect Bauer to be healthy this spring, throwing harder, and working more aggressively to get ahead with the fastball and to stop trying to get hitters to chase once he falls behind. He's a bright pitcher but he racked up strikeouts in college with power stuff more than guile.


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6. Gerrit Cole | RHP, Pittsburgh Pirates
This isn't the toughest rotation to crack, so Cole's arrival in the majors might depend as much on his own performance as anything else -- which means dealing better with adversity on the mound, and relying less on pure velocity and more on his three weapons beyond the four-seamer. The Pirates might want to keep him down until June for service-time reasons, but he could have a significant impact for them in the second half.


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7. Dylan Bundy | RHP, Baltimore Orioles
"The Boy in the Baltimore Bubble" might get all the way up to 140 to 150 innings this year, which was more like a good month's work for him in high school, but the Orioles do seem to be planning for him to have a role in the majors in the second half of the season. The team's rotation is in much better shape today than it was a year ago -- with Jason Hammel, Wei-Yin Chen, Chris Tillman, Miguel Gonzalez and, if healthy, Zach Britton forming a strong quintet, and with a few depth guys in between them and Bundy -- so his chance might not come until midyear and could even be in a bullpen role.


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8. Wil Myers | RF, Tampa Bay Rays
The Rays manage service time as carefully as any team -- they have to, since they play in a mausoleum in the heart of America's cemetery -- so Myers probably won't see the majors until at least late April, but a mildly optimistic forecast would have him as the Rays' right fielder and their third-best hitter by the end of the year.


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9. Kolten Wong | 2B, St. Louis Cardinals
There's a decent chance Wong will win the second-base job outright in spring training -- of the other candidates, only Matt Carpenter, a converted third baseman, seems like a reasonable alternative -- and the main reason Wong might not get the job would be simply his lack of experience in pro ball. A left-handed hitter, he might struggle somewhat against lefties but makes a lot of contact and could play average defense at what was the Cardinals' least-productive position in 2012.


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10. Wily Peralta | RHP, Milwaukee Brewers
Peralta should be in the team's rotation behind Yovani Gallardo, Marco Estrada and Mike Fiers, with the stuff to be better than all but Gallardo, just not the command yet. His cause might be helped by the team's lack of alternatives -- the Brewers have only six or seven legitimate rotation candidates in camp -- but he'll have to throw more strikes to hold his spot all season.


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11. Aaron Hicks | CF, Minnesota Twins
Could Hicks win the job straight out of Double-A? He historically has been a slow starter when promoted, so the two-level jump might be less than ideal for him, but his glove is ready now and the team really doesn't have a starting center fielder on the roster -- Darin Mastroianni and Joe Benson are backups at best. If Hicks plays, expect good defense, walks, strikeouts and speed, but perhaps not much average in this first year.


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12. Casey Kelly | RHP, San Diego Padres
Kelly could have nailed down a rotation spot for this year if he had been serviceable in his major league audition in September, but he was pretty bad and would have to either reclaim a spot in March or earn his way back up by throwing well in Triple-A for a few weeks or months. He remains a real enigma, as the stuff and delivery are so much better than the results, but perhaps pitching half his games in pitcher-friendly Petco Park will help him adjust.


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13. Kyle Gibson | RHP, Minnesota Twins
I loved what I saw from Gibson in the Arizona Fall League, even though he was just a few months into his comeback from Tommy John surgery. His velocity was there, his slider was sharp and he was really aggressive while showing better command than you'd expect from someone less than two years off the surgeon's table. He might be on a strict innings limit in his first full year back, however, so his impact could be limited to fewer than 100 innings in the majors.


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14. Bruce Rondon | RHP, Detroit Tigers
Yes, he has a job and he throws extra-hard, but he doesn't have the great second pitch or the control you'd like to see in someone being handed the Closer mantle, as silly as the narrowly defined role is. The Tigers do seem determined to at least give Rondon a tryout in the ninth inning, and he might miss enough bats with pure velocity to rack up some saves for his fantasy owners along the way.


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15. Carter Capps | RHP, Seattle Mariners
I actually prefer Capps as a prospect to Rondon -- he has a better breaking ball and is more likely to throw strikes, with marginally less velocity -- but Rondon has a clear job right now and Capps doesn't. Seattle's bullpen roles are far from set, however, and Capps could win a job and move into higher-leverage roles over the course of the year.


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16. Travis d'Arnaud | C, New York Mets
D'Arnaud's trouble staying healthy might be more of an obstacle than John Buck, the Mets' expected starter behind the plate, although I also could see the Mets letting d'Arnaud get 200 to 250 plate appearances in Triple-A to work on his approach and make up for the time he missed last year. He would match Buck on offense right now, which is faint praise but should give Met fans hope he'll be up soon. As for probable Triple-A teammate Zack Wheeler, he's probably waiting on multiple injuries or rotation failures before he gets a legitimate opportunity.


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17. Danny Hultzen | LHP, Seattle Mariners
If last year's control problems in Triple-A ("problems" in the sense that Chernobyl was a "minor issue") were just an aberration, Hultzen would be the first Mariners pitcher in line for a call-up this year if Hector Noesi stinks again or if the team wants to upgrade on Blake Beavan or if Felix Hernandez's elbow starts to ... never mind, forget I said anything.


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18. Oscar Taveras | RF, St. Louis Cardinals
The man who inspires valid comparisons to Vladimir Guerrero doesn't have a place to play yet, but it's not hard to see an opening with the brittle Carlos Beltran in right and the slightly injury-prone Allen Craig at first. Taveras could even fill in for center fielder Jon Jay in a pinch if the latter should get hurt. But Taveras' real impact will come in 2014 when he takes over right field and, if he still has eligibility, becomes a rookie of the year favorite.


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19. Mike Zunino | C, Seattle Mariners
Zunino isn't even a year out of college, but it seems like the Mariners have set things up for him to come in and take over the catching duties at some point this summer, maybe around the All-Star break if things go reasonably well. He destroyed the ball in a tiny sample last summer, which probably means nothing other than he'll start in Double- or Triple-A, setting up to have the M's call him up this summer.


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20a. Adeiny Hechavarria | SS, Miami Marlins
Hechavarria probably will win the every-day shortstop job, play great defense and hit absolutely nothing all year.


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20b. Rob Brantly | C, Miami Marlins
Brantly is penciled in as the Marlins' starting catcher, but he is a terrible receiver and has neither power nor patience at the plate. (His high on-base percentage in the majors was inflated by the 10 walks he drew in 59 plate appearances while batting eighth; he had three walks in the other 54 times he reached the plate.) He will get playing time early in the season but could lose the job to Jeff Mathis, who can't hit but can handle the job's defensive aspects.

Other names to watch: Jedd Gyorko, 3B, Padres (blocked by Chase Headley); Heath Hembree, RHP, Giants (possible right-handed specialist); Jake Odorizzi, RHP, Rays (no clear opportunity); Chris Archer, RHP, Rays (likewise); Cody Asche, 3B, Phillies (blocked by Michael Young); Jose Fernandez, RHP, Marlins (long shot to appear before September).
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[h=3]Big Papi tops oldie-but-goodie hitters list
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Eric Karabell

One of the myriad players whose inclusion in my top 100 overall rankings this week generated buzz was Boston Red Sox designated hitter David Ortiz. I used to argue that "clogging" a DH/utility spot in the first half of a normal fantasy draft was poor roster construction, but with offensive production declining a bit more each and every year, I just want the offense. Selecting Big Papi beats having Cody Ransom in your utility spot just because you can draft him later.

However, position eligibility is hardly the lone reason Ortiz will slip way too far in drafts, as he tends to every year. The guy is old, at least for an athlete, and let's be honest: Fantasy owners in all sports tend to be biased toward younger options with upside. The argument can be made that it's considerably tougher for an older player to recover from injury and regain prior form, and it's a valid one. But that hardly means an accomplished player, be it a hitter like Ortiz or a pitcher like Philadelphia Phillies ace Roy Halladay, can't return to previous glory.

<offer>And so it is time for my annual AARP report defending baseball players on the other side of 35 years old, and Ortiz is an obvious choice. Now 37, Ortiz was not only a productive fantasy option for most of the 2012 season but also among the best in the game. His season ended early because of an Achilles injury. He did come back for one game and reinjured himself, but I think he could have returned to the lineup if the team was contending (and he didn't dislike his manager so much).</offer>

The 2012 version of Ortiz raked in his 90 games and 324 at-bats, barely half a season. He hit 23 home runs and knocked in 60 while hitting .318. Four players age 35 or older hit more home runs (Carlos Beltran, Alfonso Soriano, A.J. Pierzynski and Paul Konerko), but that crew collectively averaged well past 500 at-bats. Ortiz posted a 1.026 OPS, which would have led baseball had he qualified for the batting title. No qualifier reached 1.000. Konerko was second in OPS for the older fellows at .857, and Ortiz was over 1.000 three of his four months, with his worst month being .841!

Ortiz is far from through as a hitter and fantasy contributor, which is why he appears safely in my top 100. While injury and age are factors in determining value, both tend to get overrated. Would I want Ortiz in a dynasty/keeper league? Well, you don't build around someone 37 years old. Then again, if you want to win in 2013, you don't overlook him in any format in the first 10 rounds. Ortiz raked in prior years as well. Unlike many left-handed hitters, he's not a liability against lefty pitchers (.985 OPS, 9 home runs), and unlike many slow fellows, he does score runs. He was second in baseball in the category at the All-Star break, one behind Texas Rangers second baseman Ian Kinsler and nearly on pace for what Los Angeles Angels outfielder Mike Trout ultimately accomplished. As for Boston's lineup, as bad as 2012 appeared to be, it scored the eighth-most runs. It should bounce back to the top five in 2013, with Ortiz hitting .300 and flirting with 30 home runs, 100 RBIs and 80 runs scored, just like in 2011.

Here are other hitters, broken up by position, that fantasy owners will be able to get at great discount in 2013, mainly because of them being deemed too old to either match 2012 numbers or simply contribute at a high level. On Friday, we'll dissect the "ancient" pitchers.

Catchers: I can't find anyone who thinks new Texas Rangers starter Pierzynski will repeat his 27-homer campaign, but he does have the skill and will have the opportunity, especially considering his friendly home ballpark. He'll slip outside the top 10 catchers on draft day, but even if he hits only 20 home runs, what a bargain.

Corner infield: I wouldn't call what Konerko is doing a major regression. He hit .298 with 26 home runs. If his wrist is healthy, he's easily a top-100 player. … New Ranger Lance Berkman has larger issues after pretty much a lost 2012. He's also potentially hitting third in a terrific lineup and doesn't have to play the field. He's definitely worth a late draft pick in deeper formats. … I understand why the Phillies think Michael Young can hit near .300 with many doubles. Prior to 2012, he was doing that annually. (The defense thing at third base? Now that's just mind-boggling.) Don't be stunned if Young, batting fifth in the lineup, hits .280 and drives in 80 runs.


Middle infield: All eyes will be on Derek Jeter. He missed my top 100, but not by much. I see him hitting .300 -- yeah, again -- but with single-digit homers and steals in roughly 140 games. He's still worth drafting at middle infield. … Jeter or Marco Scutaro? They should provide similar numbers, so if Jeter goes in Round 12 and Scutaro is out there five rounds later, go for it. … Rafael Furcal probably can't stay healthy enough to help many fantasy owners, but he still can steal 15-20 bases. … Mark Ellis could lead off for the Dodgers. No, really. He also can score runs for those of you in deep leagues.

Outfield: Beltran finished the 2012 season 11th among outfielders on the Player Rater. He just missed my top 100, but on second thought, he probably should have made it. … Soriano shouldn't have, but another 30-homer season is a realistic expectation. … Ichiro Suzuki led last year's oldies-but-goodies blog entry then struggled for Seattle, but he hit .322 as a Yankee. Overall, he stole 29 bases. He can do that again. … Torii Hunter is a smart guy. After hitting .300 for the first time, at age 37, including a startling .343 mark as the Angels' No. 2 hitter between Mike Trout and Albert Pujols, he signed with the Tigers to hit between Austin Jackson and Miguel Cabrera. Nice! Watch him hit around .290 with 20 home runs.

Designated hitter: It didn't surprise me that Raul Ibanez was able to blast 19 home runs for the Yankees last season, hitting all of them off right-handers, with 17 to right field and 14 at home. Why can't Travis Hafner do that? I'd consider him late even in 14-team mixed formats.


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