Hache - i am big into looking deeper into pitchers and actually looking at their pitch type/frequency and velocity trend last 3 seasons. Fangraphs is showing Kris Medlen with an avg fastball of just 90mph. I could have swore i saw him sitting 93-95 last season when i watched him....any opinion here?
Oldies but goodies list: Pitchers
Eric Karabell
PrintNew York Yankees right-hander Hiroki Kuroda turned 38 years old this past weekend, but you'd hardly know it by the way he pitched last season. In fact, the underrated Kuroda finished the 2012 season No. 19 on ESPN's Player Rater among starting pitchers, ahead of Zack Greinke, Mat Latos, Adam Wainwright and others who will be selected considerably higher than him in drafts over the coming months.
Kuroda might never earn proper respect in fantasy circles because, let's face it, he can't get younger, and as we see in drafts across all fantasy sports and as noted in Thursday's blog entry on older hitters being ignored or downgraded for no other reason than the date on their birth certificate, there's inherent bias against older players. Let's keep the theme going with relevant pitchers who have passed the age of 35! Kuroda was 33 when he made his big league debut for the Los Angeles Dodgers, after years of dominating in Japan, and his worst ERA in five seasons here is 3.76, his worst WHIP 1.21. He's not a fantasy ace, not with a modest strikeout rate, but focus on what he is, especially at the reduced draft-day price his age provides.
<offer></offer>
Greinke, nearly a decade younger, has a career ERA and WHIP higher than Kuroda's worst single-season mark, yet the age and degree of potential -- and, of course, the relevant, tangible difference in strikeouts -- explains the large draft-day gap. Of course, I'd take Greinke earlier, too, and someday Kuroda will stop pitching like a much younger man, but every year the value pick between these two is the older fellow. Over the past three seasons, Kuroda has posted a cumulative 3.26 ERA and 1.18 WHIP, which is really, really good. Anyone concerned about the switch from the cozy NL West and Dodger Stadium to the mighty AL East and hitter-friendly Yankee Stadium didn't need to be, as Kuroda actually improved his numbers, and there's little reason to believe 2013 can't be even better.
ESPN Fantasy ranked Kuroda 32nd among starting pitchers, which is pretty much where I've got him, but I suspect he'll go later in drafts, as attractive youngsters such as Jarrod Parker, Matt Harvey and Lance Lynn pass him by. Those fellas possess upside, but aren't nearly as proven. Of course, of the seven pitchers directly ahead of Kuroda in the ESPN rankings, he topped them all on last year's Player Rater. Certainly we can't assume another 16 wins, as the category is erratic even for pitchers on top teams -- Justin Verlander and Clayton Kershaw each won seven fewer games in 2012 than the year before -- but when it comes to ERA, WHIP and durability, this is a safe No. 3 or 4 fantasy starter.
Here are five other starting pitchers on the wrong side of 35 years old not exactly getting the respect they are due. I left out new Toronto Blue Jays knuckleballer R.A. Dickey and former Philadelphia Phillies ace Roy Halladay because the former is a borderline top-10 starting pitcher and the latter, while coming at a large discount from last year's borderline first-round overall status, remains in high regard.
Tim Hudson, Atlanta Braves: Like Kuroda, he's not going to pile on the strikeouts, but he makes up for it with an outstanding WHIP. Plus, over the past three seasons only six pitchers have more wins. Now 37, Hudson probably will fall behind 50 other starting pitchers on draft day, making him a sweet bargain.
Ryan Vogelsong, San Francisco Giants: Most people probably think he's 25 or so, because he didn't become fantasy relevant until 2011. Wrong! Vogelsong was drafted by the Giants nearly 15 years ago. Perhaps he has overachieved with average stuff and depended on his home ballpark, but even if his cumulative 3.05 ERA and 1.24 WHIP the past two seasons regresses some, it's certainly draftable.
A.J. Burnett, Pittsburgh Pirates: Gambling on arms that move from AL to NL generally works out, especially when they bring the potential for 200 strikeouts. Burnett missed a few April starts with a fluke injury, otherwise he could have made it. If anything, Burnett's numbers could have been better, had his manager helped save him from a ghastly 12-run outing (in 2 2/3 innings) in May.
Ryan Dempster, Boston Red Sox: Some will view his 5.09 ERA over 12 starts with the Texas Rangers as his AL baseline, not his 2.25 ERA for the Chicago Cubs before being dealt. Of course, Dempster also whiffed 70 batters in 69 innings for Texas. His ERA might end up in the low-4s, but after averaging 190 strikeouts from 2008-11, he's capable of getting back there in Beantown.
Andy Pettitte, New York Yankees: Now 40, Pettitte posted a 2.87 ERA over 12 starts, and because the injury that cost him months was hardly due to old age, it's reasonable to expect at least 25 starts and an ERA that doesn't rise a whole lot more than that. This is a four-category pitcher you can draft well after the top 60 starters.
Eric Karabell
PrintNew York Yankees right-hander Hiroki Kuroda turned 38 years old this past weekend, but you'd hardly know it by the way he pitched last season. In fact, the underrated Kuroda finished the 2012 season No. 19 on ESPN's Player Rater among starting pitchers, ahead of Zack Greinke, Mat Latos, Adam Wainwright and others who will be selected considerably higher than him in drafts over the coming months.
Kuroda might never earn proper respect in fantasy circles because, let's face it, he can't get younger, and as we see in drafts across all fantasy sports and as noted in Thursday's blog entry on older hitters being ignored or downgraded for no other reason than the date on their birth certificate, there's inherent bias against older players. Let's keep the theme going with relevant pitchers who have passed the age of 35! Kuroda was 33 when he made his big league debut for the Los Angeles Dodgers, after years of dominating in Japan, and his worst ERA in five seasons here is 3.76, his worst WHIP 1.21. He's not a fantasy ace, not with a modest strikeout rate, but focus on what he is, especially at the reduced draft-day price his age provides.
<offer></offer>
Greinke, nearly a decade younger, has a career ERA and WHIP higher than Kuroda's worst single-season mark, yet the age and degree of potential -- and, of course, the relevant, tangible difference in strikeouts -- explains the large draft-day gap. Of course, I'd take Greinke earlier, too, and someday Kuroda will stop pitching like a much younger man, but every year the value pick between these two is the older fellow. Over the past three seasons, Kuroda has posted a cumulative 3.26 ERA and 1.18 WHIP, which is really, really good. Anyone concerned about the switch from the cozy NL West and Dodger Stadium to the mighty AL East and hitter-friendly Yankee Stadium didn't need to be, as Kuroda actually improved his numbers, and there's little reason to believe 2013 can't be even better.
ESPN Fantasy ranked Kuroda 32nd among starting pitchers, which is pretty much where I've got him, but I suspect he'll go later in drafts, as attractive youngsters such as Jarrod Parker, Matt Harvey and Lance Lynn pass him by. Those fellas possess upside, but aren't nearly as proven. Of course, of the seven pitchers directly ahead of Kuroda in the ESPN rankings, he topped them all on last year's Player Rater. Certainly we can't assume another 16 wins, as the category is erratic even for pitchers on top teams -- Justin Verlander and Clayton Kershaw each won seven fewer games in 2012 than the year before -- but when it comes to ERA, WHIP and durability, this is a safe No. 3 or 4 fantasy starter.
Here are five other starting pitchers on the wrong side of 35 years old not exactly getting the respect they are due. I left out new Toronto Blue Jays knuckleballer R.A. Dickey and former Philadelphia Phillies ace Roy Halladay because the former is a borderline top-10 starting pitcher and the latter, while coming at a large discount from last year's borderline first-round overall status, remains in high regard.
Tim Hudson, Atlanta Braves: Like Kuroda, he's not going to pile on the strikeouts, but he makes up for it with an outstanding WHIP. Plus, over the past three seasons only six pitchers have more wins. Now 37, Hudson probably will fall behind 50 other starting pitchers on draft day, making him a sweet bargain.
Ryan Vogelsong, San Francisco Giants: Most people probably think he's 25 or so, because he didn't become fantasy relevant until 2011. Wrong! Vogelsong was drafted by the Giants nearly 15 years ago. Perhaps he has overachieved with average stuff and depended on his home ballpark, but even if his cumulative 3.05 ERA and 1.24 WHIP the past two seasons regresses some, it's certainly draftable.
A.J. Burnett, Pittsburgh Pirates: Gambling on arms that move from AL to NL generally works out, especially when they bring the potential for 200 strikeouts. Burnett missed a few April starts with a fluke injury, otherwise he could have made it. If anything, Burnett's numbers could have been better, had his manager helped save him from a ghastly 12-run outing (in 2 2/3 innings) in May.
Ryan Dempster, Boston Red Sox: Some will view his 5.09 ERA over 12 starts with the Texas Rangers as his AL baseline, not his 2.25 ERA for the Chicago Cubs before being dealt. Of course, Dempster also whiffed 70 batters in 69 innings for Texas. His ERA might end up in the low-4s, but after averaging 190 strikeouts from 2008-11, he's capable of getting back there in Beantown.
Andy Pettitte, New York Yankees: Now 40, Pettitte posted a 2.87 ERA over 12 starts, and because the injury that cost him months was hardly due to old age, it's reasonable to expect at least 25 starts and an ERA that doesn't rise a whole lot more than that. This is a four-category pitcher you can draft well after the top 60 starters.
[h=1]New universe[/h][h=3]Astros' move to American League has ripple effect on fantasy baseball[/h]By Tristan H. Cockcroft | ESPN.com
A reminder: The Houston Astros, members of the National League since their inception in 1962 (though back then, they were the Colt .45s), move to the American League West this season.
We mention this because, frankly, if we didn't, the 2013 Astros might scarcely have drawn your attention, beyond the likelihood that they'll lead the major leagues in losses with a total higher than 100.
[h=4]Top 10 NL-only Second Basemen[/h]
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Three Astros grace our current top 300 players, with only one of those in the top 250 (the number of draft picks in our standard game), so at first glance, the team's league switch might not appear a big deal. The quick fantasy take might be that Jose Altuve migrates from the NL- to AL-only player pool, further thinning an already weak NL second base pool, and not much else will be different.
However, it's the subtleties of such a major baseball decision as a team switching leagues that might sneak past you. Now, subtleties might amount to $1-$2 changes in auction player price, a handful of picks (maybe a round's difference) in a draft or a very slight tweak to your strategy, but they're subtleties worthy of discussion nevertheless. Remember, every buck counts.
Among them: Expanded interleague play resulting in 20 such games apiece for each of the 30 major league teams, scattered across the calendar instead of confined to specifically scheduled chunks of time; a shift in volume of available players in singular (AL- or NL-only) leagues; and the potential impact within the two divisions directly affected by the Astros' move.
[h=3]Interleague play
Along with seeing five teams listed in the 2013 AL West standings, interleague play will be the obvious change fantasy owners notice, beginning with the Los Angeles Angels at Cincinnati Reds game at 4:10 p.m. ET on Monday, April 1 -- that's right, the traditional Cincinnati home opener is an interleague game.
It's a matter of math: Two 15-team leagues mandates daily interleague play, and an increase in interleague games per team to 20; previously every American League team played 18, while National League teams played between 12 and 18 apiece. The result is 48 additional interleague contests overall in 2013, or a 19 percent increase upon Major League Baseball's 2012 total.
It's the daily aspect of interleague play going forward that necessitates a shift in fantasy strategy. As longtime fantasy owners know, interleague play adds two wrinkles to lineup planning: One -- which affects your offense -- is the impact of the designated hitter, which is granted to NL squads at AL parks but denied AL teams at NL parks; the other -- which affects your pitching and ties to the first point -- is that AL pitchers get the advantage of facing lighter, DH-free lineups when visiting NL parks, while NL pitchers face greater challenges with a DH rather than the pitcher batting in AL parks.
Previously, these considerations were confined to one weekend in mid-to-late May and a two-and-a-half-week stretch in June. In 2013, there is only one designated interleague period on the schedule -- what MLB calls the "traditional rivalry" portion -- and it's only a four-day span from Monday, May 27 through Thursday, May 30, or just over half of fantasy's Week 9 scoring period.
That's especially important for head-to-head owners to remember, because it means there's a chance that you could lose a valuable hitter -- an AL designated hitter -- to an interleague game at an NL park during a critical weekly matchup. For example, the Detroit Tigers are the unfortunate squad to finish the season with an interleague series, and that one's at Miami's Marlins Park, meaning Victor Martinez could spend the final days of your championship matchup as a real-game pinch hitter.
You can see the entire list of AL teams with interleague games at NL parks in the sidebar to the right, but here are some other things you might want to think about as you plan your draft and subsequent in-season strategy:
[/h][h=4]2013 Interleague: AL teams in NL parks[/h][h=3]
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" The Boston Red Sox are one of three teams that won't play their first interleague games until that "traditional rivalry" period of May 27-30, and the Red Sox are one of two teams that play as many as eight games in NL parks after the All-Star break. The Red Sox play the entire Week 20 (Aug. 19-25) in NL venues, and they, like the aforementioned Tigers, spend part of the season's final week (Week 25, Sept. 23-29) in an NL park (granted, it's Colorado's Coors Field). Incidentally, the Red Sox are scheduled for just five games in that final week. David Ortiz's owners might lose some at-bats from him during the stretch run.
" The Baltimore Orioles are the other team that plays eight of 10 games -- keep in mind that every team plays two games in NL parks between May 27-30 -- after the All-Star break. The Orioles, in fact, play two consecutive weeks of interleague play in mid-August (Weeks 18-19, Aug. 5-18), including eight consecutive games in NL parks (at San Diego, San Francisco and Arizona, Aug. 6-14), and follows this two-week interleague stretch with a treacherous rest-of-August intraleague schedule including three-game series against the Tampa Bay Rays, Oakland Athletics, Red Sox and New York Yankees. Wilson Betemit, likely the Orioles' primary designated hitter, might not be as painful an absence as a player like Martinez or Ortiz, but he's an AL-only factor, and there'll be fewer at-bats to go around if the team has other DH candidates emerge in-season as well.
" The Rays, for two weeks at the end of July and beginning of August, play nothing but interleague games. Both of those weeks -- Weeks 17-18 (July 29-Aug. 11) -- are five-game weeks, the latter spent entirely in NL parks. Sensing a theme here with the AL East having a trickier interleague schedule?
" Showing it is no better for NL West teams -- they play the AL East during interleague play -- the Arizona Diamondbacks have arguably the most difficult interleague schedule of 2013. In addition to facing every AL East team, their "traditional rivalry" matchup is the Texas Rangers, another offensively sound squad. Incidentally, the Diamondbacks play 13 of these 20 games after the All-Star break, including 10 in a 16-day span from July 30-Aug. 14. If the price is right, Diamondbacks starters could be worth shopping around midseason.
" The Los Angeles Dodgers and San Francisco Giants play every member of the AL East plus "traditional rivalry" matchups with the Angels and Athletics, respectively, so neither squad has it much better than the Diamondbacks.
" The Chicago Cubs and Minnesota Twins are the two teams that are entirely done with interleague play before the All-Star break. The Chicago White Sox, meanwhile, are done with interleague play during the first weekend following the break.
" The Twins, incidentally, play parts of three consecutive weeks in late May and early June in NL parks. From Weeks 8-10 (May 20-June 9), they will play two or three games in NL venues without a DH, spending the rest of the week in AL parks with a DH. And remember, the Twins are one of those teams with a DH rotation, meaning catcher and first base will become somewhat more cluttered between Joe Mauer, Ryan Doumit and Justin Morneau in those weeks. On the bright side, the Twins complete the road portion of their interleague schedule in the shortest span of days: 38 days (between May 20 and July 26).
" The Rangers are the quickest AL team to finish the road portion of their interleague schedule: Their final game in an NL park is on June 23. Keep that in mind before someone tries to convince you that, "Oh, Lance Berkman will lose a couple of at-bats due to interleague play in the second half." The loss-of-DH impact on Berkman will be felt only in April (3 games), May (4) and June (3).
" The Kansas City Royals, who are faced with the difficult choice between Billy Butler and Eric Hosmer at first base during their interleague games at NL parks, will be the first team to significantly feel the loss-of-DH pinch: They play the most games in NL parks in April (5), visiting Philadelphia's Citizens Bank Park from April 5-7 (Week 1) and Atlanta's Turner Field from April 16-17 (Week 3).
" There are four scoring periods all year without an AL team playing at an NL park: Weeks 4 (April 22-28), 11 (June 10-16), 16 (July 22-28) and 24 (Sept. 14-22).
[/h][h=3]The AL- and NL-only player pools[/h][h=3]Altuve's loss from the National League player pool is the most substantial of any individual player, but in AL- and NL-only pools, there will be a somewhat noticeable impact, even if it's merely a matter of mathematics.
The "no-duh" numbers: There is one fewer team in the NL, meaning one fewer squad to draw from in order to fill an NL-only roster, and one more in the AL, meaning one more team of eligible choices for your AL-only squad.
Break it down deeper: A typical major league team, no matter its quality, is granted nine nightly lineup spots, 162 starts, and a minimum of 1,377 pitching innings (barring rainouts) -- opportunities added to the AL and subtracted from the NL. The 2012 major league team lows were 5,967 plate appearances and 1,413 2/3 innings pitched, and considering the 2012 league totals in either categories, that means a minimum increase of 6.9 percent in PAs and 7.0 percent in innings. There are therefore that many additional opportunities to fill your draft needs in an AL-only league, and approximately 6.0 percent fewer such opportunities in an NL-only league, adjusting that percentage to account for PAs spent by pitchers. (The innings percentage, however, would mirror the AL's increase.)
The way AL- and NL-only owners might notice this impact is twofold: One is in terms of save opportunities. There are now 15 closer jobs to go around in either league, instead of 14 in the AL and 16 in the NL, so the race for saves will be impacted. Though I am among the biggest proponents of the argument that all-time-worst teams tend not to generate many saves, the fact remains that the major league low in save opportunities by a team in 2012 was 44 (Toronto Blue Jays), while the low in saves was 28 (Cubs). Jose Veras -- or Josh Fields or Jarred Cosart or whomever the Astros' closer is -- might not be a name that excites you, but that his saves will count in the AL rather than NL slightly shifts the saves balance.
The other is that fantasy owners digging deeper in an AL-only league might find 1-2 additional late-round plug-ins, especially for those No. 2 catcher, corner and middle infield and fifth outfielder spots, while those in NL-only formats will find the pool drier on those lower tiers. Names like Justin Maxwell, Jason Castro, Carlos Pena, Brett Wallace, Chris Carter, Tyler Greene, Fernando Martinez and a handful of others might not grab you. But as you approach those latter draft/auction stages in AL-only, you're much more apt to say, "Hey, they might be similarly skilled, but Fernando Martinez has a much better shot at 400 PAs than Michael Taylor, so I'll draft him." Conversely, NL-only owners, who in the late rounds might have seen Martinez's name, might be saying, "Boy, outfield dried up really quickly this year!"
There's a good chance, too, that your already existing AL- or NL-only league might need to make team and/or roster adjustments accordingly. For example, expert leagues like the League of Alternative Baseball Reality (LABR) and Tout Wars, which have sported 13-team NL-only leagues for years, are paring their rosters to 12 teams in both their AL- and NL-only formats in 2013 to better balance the draft resources available in either league.
If you play in a keeper league, how are you handling Astros players? (Let's hope that the answer is, "We addressed it before the 2012 season." Considering how late the announcement last year, however, we'd understand if you did not.) Do owners get a one-year grace period on, say, Jose Altuve if they owned him in an NL-only league, allowed to keep him (even as an AL player) with the knowledge he'll be forfeited at year's end? Do you play in an AL-/NL-only league partnership where you might offer a trade arrangement like the ones you'd allow in-season? For example, perhaps NL-only owners of Astros players can trade those players to their AL-only counterparts, if those AL-only squads might have a player who signed with an NL team during the winter.
The key as you adjust: Set your rules and outline them clearly.
[/h][h=3]Balance of power in the AL West and NL Central[/h][h=3]This is perhaps the most meaningful impact of the Astros' league change, but it's also the one most likely to sneak up on people.
The fact is, the 2013 Astros represent one of the strongest bets to lose at least 100 games of any team since the turn of the century, and there is a reasonable chance they could challenge the 2003 Tigers' total of 119 games lost. Let's say, for example, that the Astros lose 110 this season. Everyone realizes what moving, say, 90 wins from one division to another means, but it's every bit as relevant what moving 110 losses from the NL Central to the AL West does:
It increases the statistical upside of the more competitive AL West squads, period.
Major League Baseball goes to a more competitively balanced schedule in 2013, or at least a set of criteria identical for all 30 teams. Every team plays:
" 19 games apiece versus 4 division rivals: 76 total games.
" 6-7 games apiece versus 10 same-league-but-other-division teams: 66 games.
" 20 interleague games.
" Grand total: 162 games.
Those 19 intradivision games match the number that AL West teams played against one another in 2012, which is what might be glossed over by fantasy owners. Consider, however, that AL West teams previously played only three division rivals -- it was a four-team division -- but now they play four, just like any other team. What that means is that AL West teams will play 76 games within the division, up from 57 a year ago, and it means 19 additional games against the Houston Astros that previously might have been scheduled against the Red Sox, Royals, Cleveland Indians and Twins. Those four teams are picked for a reason: They were the four worst teams from the AL East and Central in 2012, but there might not be anyone out there who thinks any will be worse than the Astros in 2013. The schedule, simply put, gets easier as a result.
Last season, the Houston Astros averaged a major league-low 3.60 runs scored per game with a .673 team OPS that ranked second-worst. On the mound, they sported a 4.56 ERA, which was sixth worst, and their starters' ERA was 4.62.
Give the Angels, Athletics, Seattle Mariners and Rangers 19 games apiece against that team, and a case can be made every one of those division rivals could be 3-4 wins better this season solely because of the new division alignment. Many are already saying that the chances of both wild cards coming out of the AL West are excellent; those claims have validity.
From a pure fantasy aspect, you can count on all of those new Astros rivals having as many as 19 additional favorable matchups, if you play in a league with daily transactions. It can be argued that AL West players -- especially those Angels, Athletics and Rangers -- might be $1-$2 more valuable apiece in auction formats simply because they play so more games against the Astros.
That's not to say that you should alter your draft strategy to load up on Angels, Athletics and Rangers. But if you're at the draft table and value a player from one of those teams almost identically to one on any of the other 27, there's good reason to use the division alignment as a virtual tiebreaker.
Again, all of these things might be judged of minimal impact once 2013 statistics are in the book. But there's that word -- minimal -- that is every bit as apt a description of the edge a fantasy owner seeks to get ahead.
The smallest nugget can make the largest difference. Do not, therefore, cast division realignment aside as irrelevant, even if you're tempted to do so with the 2013 Astros as a team.
[/h]
A reminder: The Houston Astros, members of the National League since their inception in 1962 (though back then, they were the Colt .45s), move to the American League West this season.
We mention this because, frankly, if we didn't, the 2013 Astros might scarcely have drawn your attention, beyond the likelihood that they'll lead the major leagues in losses with a total higher than 100.
[h=4]Top 10 NL-only Second Basemen[/h]
| <center>Rank</center> | Player, Team | <center>Mixed Rank</center> |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brandon Phillips, Cin | 4 |
| 2 | Aaron Hill, Ari | 7 |
| 3 | Neil Walker, Pit | 9 |
| 4 | Danny Espinosa, Wsh | 11 |
| 5 | Rickie Weeks, Mil | 12 |
| 6 | Chase Utley, Phi | 13 |
| 7 | Dan Uggla, Atl | 14 |
| 8 | Marco Scutaro, SF | 15 |
| 9 | Daniel Murphy, NYM | 17 |
| 10 | Darwin Barney, ChC | 23 |
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Three Astros grace our current top 300 players, with only one of those in the top 250 (the number of draft picks in our standard game), so at first glance, the team's league switch might not appear a big deal. The quick fantasy take might be that Jose Altuve migrates from the NL- to AL-only player pool, further thinning an already weak NL second base pool, and not much else will be different.
However, it's the subtleties of such a major baseball decision as a team switching leagues that might sneak past you. Now, subtleties might amount to $1-$2 changes in auction player price, a handful of picks (maybe a round's difference) in a draft or a very slight tweak to your strategy, but they're subtleties worthy of discussion nevertheless. Remember, every buck counts.
Among them: Expanded interleague play resulting in 20 such games apiece for each of the 30 major league teams, scattered across the calendar instead of confined to specifically scheduled chunks of time; a shift in volume of available players in singular (AL- or NL-only) leagues; and the potential impact within the two divisions directly affected by the Astros' move.
[h=3]Interleague play
Along with seeing five teams listed in the 2013 AL West standings, interleague play will be the obvious change fantasy owners notice, beginning with the Los Angeles Angels at Cincinnati Reds game at 4:10 p.m. ET on Monday, April 1 -- that's right, the traditional Cincinnati home opener is an interleague game.
It's a matter of math: Two 15-team leagues mandates daily interleague play, and an increase in interleague games per team to 20; previously every American League team played 18, while National League teams played between 12 and 18 apiece. The result is 48 additional interleague contests overall in 2013, or a 19 percent increase upon Major League Baseball's 2012 total.
It's the daily aspect of interleague play going forward that necessitates a shift in fantasy strategy. As longtime fantasy owners know, interleague play adds two wrinkles to lineup planning: One -- which affects your offense -- is the impact of the designated hitter, which is granted to NL squads at AL parks but denied AL teams at NL parks; the other -- which affects your pitching and ties to the first point -- is that AL pitchers get the advantage of facing lighter, DH-free lineups when visiting NL parks, while NL pitchers face greater challenges with a DH rather than the pitcher batting in AL parks.
Previously, these considerations were confined to one weekend in mid-to-late May and a two-and-a-half-week stretch in June. In 2013, there is only one designated interleague period on the schedule -- what MLB calls the "traditional rivalry" portion -- and it's only a four-day span from Monday, May 27 through Thursday, May 30, or just over half of fantasy's Week 9 scoring period.
That's especially important for head-to-head owners to remember, because it means there's a chance that you could lose a valuable hitter -- an AL designated hitter -- to an interleague game at an NL park during a critical weekly matchup. For example, the Detroit Tigers are the unfortunate squad to finish the season with an interleague series, and that one's at Miami's Marlins Park, meaning Victor Martinez could spend the final days of your championship matchup as a real-game pinch hitter.
You can see the entire list of AL teams with interleague games at NL parks in the sidebar to the right, but here are some other things you might want to think about as you plan your draft and subsequent in-season strategy:
[/h][h=4]2013 Interleague: AL teams in NL parks[/h][h=3]
| Week 1: March 31-April 7 |
|---|
| Week 2: April 8-14 |
| Week 3: April 15-21 |
| Week 5: April 29-May 5 |
| Week 6: May 6-12 |
| Week 7: May 13-19 |
| Week 8: May 20-26 |
| Week 9: May 27-June 2 |
| Week 10: June 3-9 |
| Week 12: June 17-23 |
| Week 13: June 24-30 |
| Week 14: July 1-7 |
| Week 15: July 8-14 |
| Week 17: July 29-Aug. 4 |
| Week 18: Aug. 5-11 |
| Week 19: Aug. 12-18 |
| Week 20: Aug. 19-25 |
| Week 21: Aug. 26-Sept. 1 |
| Week 22: Sept. 2-8 |
| Week 23: Sept. 9-15 |
| Week 25: Sept. 23-29 |
| KC: @PHI-3 (Fri-Sun); LAA: @CIN-3 (Mon, Wed-Thu) |
| DHs impacted: Billy Butler, Mark Trumbo |
| CWS: @WSH-3 (Tue-Thu) |
| DHs impacted: Adam Dunn |
| KC: @ATL-2 (Tue-Wed); TEX: @CHC-3 (Tue-Thu) |
| DHs impacted: Billy Butler, Lance Berkman |
| TB: @COL-3 (Fri-Sun) |
| DHs impacted: Luke Scott |
| CWS: @NYM-2 (Tue-Wed); DET: @WSH-2 (Tue-Wed); NYY: @COL-3 (Tue-Thu); SEA: @PIT-2 (Tue-Wed); TEX: @MIL-2 (Tue-Wed) |
| DHs impacted: Adam Dunn, Victor Martinez, Travis Hafner, Kendrys Morales/Jesus Montero, Lance Berkman |
| CLE: @PHI-2 (Tue-Wed); HOU: @PIT-3 (Fri-Sun) |
| DHs impacted: Chris McGuiness/TBD, Chris Carter/Brett Wallace |
| MIN: @ATL-3 (Mon-Wed) |
| DHs impacted: Ryan Doumit/Joe Mauer |
| BAL: @WSH-2 (Mon-Tue); BOS: @PHI-2 (Wed-Thu); CLE: @CIN-2 (Mon-Tue); CWS: @CHC-2 (Wed-Thu); DET: @PIT-2 (Wed-Thu); HOU: @COL-2 (Wed-Thu); KC: @STL-2 (Wed-Thu); LAA: @LAD-2 (Mon-Tue); MIN: @MIL-2 (Mon-Tue); NYY: @NYM-2 (Mon-Tue); OAK: @SF-2 (Wed-Thu); SEA: @SD-2 (Wed-Thu); TB: @MIA-2 (Wed-Thu); TEX: @ARI-2 (Mon DH); TOR: @ATL-2 (Wed-Thu), @SD-3 (Fri-Sun) |
| DHs impacted: All 15 AL teams |
| MIN: @WSH-3 (Fri-Sun); OAK: @MIL-3 (Mon-Wed); TOR: @SF-2 (Tue-Wed) |
| DHs impacted: Ryan Doumit/Joe Mauer, Seth Smith/TBD, Adam Lind |
| HOU: @CHC-3 (Fri-Sun); TEX: @STL-3 (Fri-Sun) |
| DHs impacted: Chris Carter/Brett Wallace, Lance Berkman |
| MIN: @MIA-2 (Tue-Wed) |
| DHs impacted: Ryan Doumit/Joe Mauer |
| SEA: @CIN-3 (Fri-Sun) |
| DHs impacted: Kendrys Morales/Jesus Montero |
| CWS: @PHI-3 (Fri-Sun); HOU: @STL-2 (Tue-Wed); LAA: @CHC-2 (Tue-Wed); OAK: @PIT-3 (Mon-Wed) |
| DHs impacted: Adam Dunn, Chris Carter/Brett Wallace, Mark Trumbo, Seth Smith/TBD |
| CLE: @MIA-3 (Fri-Sun); KC: @NYM-3 (Fri-Sun); NYY: @LAD-2 (Tue-Wed), @SD-3 (Fri-Sun) |
| DHs impacted: Chris McGuiness/TBD, Billy Butler, Travis Hafner |
| BAL: @SD-2 (Tue-Wed), @SF-3 (Fri-Sun); OAK: @CIN-2 (Tue-Wed); TB: @ARI-2 (Tue-Wed), @LAD-3 (Fri-Sun) |
| DHs impacted: Wilson Betemit, Seth Smith/TBD, Luke Scott |
| BAL: @ARI-3 (Mon-Wed) |
| DHs impacted: Wilson Betemit |
| BOS: @SF-3 (Mon-Wed), @LAD-3 (Fri-Sun); DET: @NYM-3 (Fri-Sun) |
| DHs impacted: David Ortiz, Victor Martinez |
| CLE: @ATL-3 (Tue-Thu); LAA: @MIL-3 (Fri-Sun) |
| DHs impacted: Chris McGuiness/TBD, Mark Trumbo |
| TOR: @ARI-3 (Mon-Wed) |
| DHs impacted: Adam Lind |
| SEA: @STL-3 (Fri-Sun) |
| DHs impacted: Kendrys Morales/Jesus Montero |
| BOS: @COL-2 (Tue-Wed); DET: @MIA-3 (Fri-Sun) |
| DHs impacted: David Ortiz, Victor Martinez |
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" The Boston Red Sox are one of three teams that won't play their first interleague games until that "traditional rivalry" period of May 27-30, and the Red Sox are one of two teams that play as many as eight games in NL parks after the All-Star break. The Red Sox play the entire Week 20 (Aug. 19-25) in NL venues, and they, like the aforementioned Tigers, spend part of the season's final week (Week 25, Sept. 23-29) in an NL park (granted, it's Colorado's Coors Field). Incidentally, the Red Sox are scheduled for just five games in that final week. David Ortiz's owners might lose some at-bats from him during the stretch run.
" The Baltimore Orioles are the other team that plays eight of 10 games -- keep in mind that every team plays two games in NL parks between May 27-30 -- after the All-Star break. The Orioles, in fact, play two consecutive weeks of interleague play in mid-August (Weeks 18-19, Aug. 5-18), including eight consecutive games in NL parks (at San Diego, San Francisco and Arizona, Aug. 6-14), and follows this two-week interleague stretch with a treacherous rest-of-August intraleague schedule including three-game series against the Tampa Bay Rays, Oakland Athletics, Red Sox and New York Yankees. Wilson Betemit, likely the Orioles' primary designated hitter, might not be as painful an absence as a player like Martinez or Ortiz, but he's an AL-only factor, and there'll be fewer at-bats to go around if the team has other DH candidates emerge in-season as well.
" The Rays, for two weeks at the end of July and beginning of August, play nothing but interleague games. Both of those weeks -- Weeks 17-18 (July 29-Aug. 11) -- are five-game weeks, the latter spent entirely in NL parks. Sensing a theme here with the AL East having a trickier interleague schedule?
" Showing it is no better for NL West teams -- they play the AL East during interleague play -- the Arizona Diamondbacks have arguably the most difficult interleague schedule of 2013. In addition to facing every AL East team, their "traditional rivalry" matchup is the Texas Rangers, another offensively sound squad. Incidentally, the Diamondbacks play 13 of these 20 games after the All-Star break, including 10 in a 16-day span from July 30-Aug. 14. If the price is right, Diamondbacks starters could be worth shopping around midseason.
" The Los Angeles Dodgers and San Francisco Giants play every member of the AL East plus "traditional rivalry" matchups with the Angels and Athletics, respectively, so neither squad has it much better than the Diamondbacks.
" The Chicago Cubs and Minnesota Twins are the two teams that are entirely done with interleague play before the All-Star break. The Chicago White Sox, meanwhile, are done with interleague play during the first weekend following the break.
" The Twins, incidentally, play parts of three consecutive weeks in late May and early June in NL parks. From Weeks 8-10 (May 20-June 9), they will play two or three games in NL venues without a DH, spending the rest of the week in AL parks with a DH. And remember, the Twins are one of those teams with a DH rotation, meaning catcher and first base will become somewhat more cluttered between Joe Mauer, Ryan Doumit and Justin Morneau in those weeks. On the bright side, the Twins complete the road portion of their interleague schedule in the shortest span of days: 38 days (between May 20 and July 26).
" The Rangers are the quickest AL team to finish the road portion of their interleague schedule: Their final game in an NL park is on June 23. Keep that in mind before someone tries to convince you that, "Oh, Lance Berkman will lose a couple of at-bats due to interleague play in the second half." The loss-of-DH impact on Berkman will be felt only in April (3 games), May (4) and June (3).
" The Kansas City Royals, who are faced with the difficult choice between Billy Butler and Eric Hosmer at first base during their interleague games at NL parks, will be the first team to significantly feel the loss-of-DH pinch: They play the most games in NL parks in April (5), visiting Philadelphia's Citizens Bank Park from April 5-7 (Week 1) and Atlanta's Turner Field from April 16-17 (Week 3).
" There are four scoring periods all year without an AL team playing at an NL park: Weeks 4 (April 22-28), 11 (June 10-16), 16 (July 22-28) and 24 (Sept. 14-22).
[/h][h=3]The AL- and NL-only player pools[/h][h=3]Altuve's loss from the National League player pool is the most substantial of any individual player, but in AL- and NL-only pools, there will be a somewhat noticeable impact, even if it's merely a matter of mathematics.
The "no-duh" numbers: There is one fewer team in the NL, meaning one fewer squad to draw from in order to fill an NL-only roster, and one more in the AL, meaning one more team of eligible choices for your AL-only squad.
Break it down deeper: A typical major league team, no matter its quality, is granted nine nightly lineup spots, 162 starts, and a minimum of 1,377 pitching innings (barring rainouts) -- opportunities added to the AL and subtracted from the NL. The 2012 major league team lows were 5,967 plate appearances and 1,413 2/3 innings pitched, and considering the 2012 league totals in either categories, that means a minimum increase of 6.9 percent in PAs and 7.0 percent in innings. There are therefore that many additional opportunities to fill your draft needs in an AL-only league, and approximately 6.0 percent fewer such opportunities in an NL-only league, adjusting that percentage to account for PAs spent by pitchers. (The innings percentage, however, would mirror the AL's increase.)
The way AL- and NL-only owners might notice this impact is twofold: One is in terms of save opportunities. There are now 15 closer jobs to go around in either league, instead of 14 in the AL and 16 in the NL, so the race for saves will be impacted. Though I am among the biggest proponents of the argument that all-time-worst teams tend not to generate many saves, the fact remains that the major league low in save opportunities by a team in 2012 was 44 (Toronto Blue Jays), while the low in saves was 28 (Cubs). Jose Veras -- or Josh Fields or Jarred Cosart or whomever the Astros' closer is -- might not be a name that excites you, but that his saves will count in the AL rather than NL slightly shifts the saves balance.
The other is that fantasy owners digging deeper in an AL-only league might find 1-2 additional late-round plug-ins, especially for those No. 2 catcher, corner and middle infield and fifth outfielder spots, while those in NL-only formats will find the pool drier on those lower tiers. Names like Justin Maxwell, Jason Castro, Carlos Pena, Brett Wallace, Chris Carter, Tyler Greene, Fernando Martinez and a handful of others might not grab you. But as you approach those latter draft/auction stages in AL-only, you're much more apt to say, "Hey, they might be similarly skilled, but Fernando Martinez has a much better shot at 400 PAs than Michael Taylor, so I'll draft him." Conversely, NL-only owners, who in the late rounds might have seen Martinez's name, might be saying, "Boy, outfield dried up really quickly this year!"
There's a good chance, too, that your already existing AL- or NL-only league might need to make team and/or roster adjustments accordingly. For example, expert leagues like the League of Alternative Baseball Reality (LABR) and Tout Wars, which have sported 13-team NL-only leagues for years, are paring their rosters to 12 teams in both their AL- and NL-only formats in 2013 to better balance the draft resources available in either league.
If you play in a keeper league, how are you handling Astros players? (Let's hope that the answer is, "We addressed it before the 2012 season." Considering how late the announcement last year, however, we'd understand if you did not.) Do owners get a one-year grace period on, say, Jose Altuve if they owned him in an NL-only league, allowed to keep him (even as an AL player) with the knowledge he'll be forfeited at year's end? Do you play in an AL-/NL-only league partnership where you might offer a trade arrangement like the ones you'd allow in-season? For example, perhaps NL-only owners of Astros players can trade those players to their AL-only counterparts, if those AL-only squads might have a player who signed with an NL team during the winter.
The key as you adjust: Set your rules and outline them clearly.
[/h][h=3]Balance of power in the AL West and NL Central[/h][h=3]This is perhaps the most meaningful impact of the Astros' league change, but it's also the one most likely to sneak up on people.
The fact is, the 2013 Astros represent one of the strongest bets to lose at least 100 games of any team since the turn of the century, and there is a reasonable chance they could challenge the 2003 Tigers' total of 119 games lost. Let's say, for example, that the Astros lose 110 this season. Everyone realizes what moving, say, 90 wins from one division to another means, but it's every bit as relevant what moving 110 losses from the NL Central to the AL West does:
It increases the statistical upside of the more competitive AL West squads, period.
Major League Baseball goes to a more competitively balanced schedule in 2013, or at least a set of criteria identical for all 30 teams. Every team plays:
" 19 games apiece versus 4 division rivals: 76 total games.
" 6-7 games apiece versus 10 same-league-but-other-division teams: 66 games.
" 20 interleague games.
" Grand total: 162 games.
Those 19 intradivision games match the number that AL West teams played against one another in 2012, which is what might be glossed over by fantasy owners. Consider, however, that AL West teams previously played only three division rivals -- it was a four-team division -- but now they play four, just like any other team. What that means is that AL West teams will play 76 games within the division, up from 57 a year ago, and it means 19 additional games against the Houston Astros that previously might have been scheduled against the Red Sox, Royals, Cleveland Indians and Twins. Those four teams are picked for a reason: They were the four worst teams from the AL East and Central in 2012, but there might not be anyone out there who thinks any will be worse than the Astros in 2013. The schedule, simply put, gets easier as a result.
Last season, the Houston Astros averaged a major league-low 3.60 runs scored per game with a .673 team OPS that ranked second-worst. On the mound, they sported a 4.56 ERA, which was sixth worst, and their starters' ERA was 4.62.
Give the Angels, Athletics, Seattle Mariners and Rangers 19 games apiece against that team, and a case can be made every one of those division rivals could be 3-4 wins better this season solely because of the new division alignment. Many are already saying that the chances of both wild cards coming out of the AL West are excellent; those claims have validity.
From a pure fantasy aspect, you can count on all of those new Astros rivals having as many as 19 additional favorable matchups, if you play in a league with daily transactions. It can be argued that AL West players -- especially those Angels, Athletics and Rangers -- might be $1-$2 more valuable apiece in auction formats simply because they play so more games against the Astros.
That's not to say that you should alter your draft strategy to load up on Angels, Athletics and Rangers. But if you're at the draft table and value a player from one of those teams almost identically to one on any of the other 27, there's good reason to use the division alignment as a virtual tiebreaker.
Again, all of these things might be judged of minimal impact once 2013 statistics are in the book. But there's that word -- minimal -- that is every bit as apt a description of the edge a fantasy owner seeks to get ahead.
The smallest nugget can make the largest difference. Do not, therefore, cast division realignment aside as irrelevant, even if you're tempted to do so with the 2013 Astros as a team.
[/h]
Spring watch list: Players to track
By Tristan H. Cockcroft | ESPN.com
There's a reason that spring training statistics are neither easily found nor very detailed: It's because they're almost entirely meaningless.
Oh sure, some spring numbers have relevance -- such as strikeouts and walks for pitchers, especially for those who might have performed poorly in the past in those departments. But for the most part, spring is not about the statistics. It's about roster developments, injury rehabilitation and player scouting. It's more about what the eye sees on the field than in the box score.
These next 37 days will afford (presumably) your first opportunity since October to see players about whom you might have some questions. If possible, read the daily updates about these players and catch at least two to three of the player's games to refine your opinion about him.
I understand many fantasy owners have jobs and lack the luxury of watching dozens of spring games. With that in mind, the list I've prepared for you below should help. This is the list of players I'll be tracking most closely during spring training, and it's what I call my annual "spring watch list." These are players, in my opinion, who possessed the widest range of 2013 possibilities at the dawn of spring training, making these next 37 days critical for each.
Let's illustrate the watch list's purpose with a drafting example. I play in two expert leagues each season; the first, the League of Alternative Baseball Reality (LABR), drafts the first weekend in March. Though this spring's schedule is accelerated due to the World Baseball Classic, spring camps have typically been open for only three weeks, and spring games are in their first few days by the time I sit down at the LABR draft table. There's no question, therefore, that the draft sheets I prepare, as well as the extensive winter research I have contributed in many forms to our Draft Kit, projections and player profiles, are based almost exclusively on player skills and immediate opportunity. In fact, some players' profiles might even include "watch him this spring," because they're the exact type of player I'm talking about. At LABR, I'll be guessing about these players, because in early March, that's what one must do.
The second, Tout Wars, typically drafts in the final full weekend preceding Opening Day. At this stage of the spring, roster decisions have mostly been made, players' injury status is well known, and I've reached my final opinion on every player. The draft sheet I prepare for Tout is vastly different. It weights opportunity much more, and it's based off projections that have a much higher probability of being correct because of a full spring's worth of knowledge gained.
What happens between these drafts ties into the "watch list." Yes, I'm watching every player during the spring. But these names -- and in a few instances, roster situations -- are the ones I'm tracking most, because my opinions of them are most likely to change during March.
With that, here's the list, with the players in no particular order.
[h=3]Eric Hosmer, 1B, Kansas City Royals[/h]
Jason Heyward topped this list a year ago, and Hosmer's situation looks eerily similar entering 2013. "Heyward's swing is broken" was a common statement during 2012 spring training; expect to hear the same about Hosmer's this year. Here's why: Last season, he hit a slew of ground balls, more than 50 percent, and he proved incapable of adjusting to opponents' tendency to use defensive shifts against him, going from a 25 percent rate of hitting to the opposite field before the All-Star break to 16 percent after it. Hosmer had a .101 BABIP on pulled ground balls last season; he played right into the defense's hands.
In order for Hosmer to break out in his third season, therefore, he needs to make those adjustments -- just as Heyward did during March of 2012. Though shoulder problems might have contributed to Hosmer's late-season struggles, just as they did to Heyward's in 2011, we need evidence before saying he's this year's Heyward. For what it's worth, Heyward provided said evidence in the spring games and went on to have a fine season.
[h=3]Derek Jeter, SS, New York Yankees[/h]
Jeter's health is one of the most critical situations to watch, and not simply because of the direct impact on his games played/plate appearances total. That's relevant; it's the per-plate appearance production that's most in flux. He is recovering from a fractured ankle, an ugly injury most everyone witnessed during last year's ALCS, and one he recently admitted was probably as a result of playing through pain since he first injured the ankle on Sept. 12. And here's why Jeter's recovery is key: A healthy Jeter logs the PAs and occupies a role that drives his value into the top 10 at one of the weakest positions in fantasy. A Jeter at anything less might warrant no more than middle-infield status in mixed formats, and he'd possess a downside that could drop him to near-replacement level in 10-team mixed leagues.
Statistically speaking, Jeter batted .279/.339/.324 and did not attempt a single stolen base in 25 games between the dates he initially hurt the ankle (Sept. 12), then fractured it (Oct. 13), and it's also worth mentioning that his 13 stolen base attempts for the season -- those in the first 140 games of 2012 -- were a career low. Jeter's mobility and speed are most critical to watch; a Jeter who steals less than 10 bases is far less likely to crack the top 10 shortstops than one who steals more. Edgar Renteria's final five seasons (ages 30-34) -- .279 batting average, 11 homers, 10 stolen bases per 162 games played -- might be a fair low-end comparison for Jeter, if either you or I don't like what we see.
[h=3]New York Yankees batting order[/h]
This ties into the Jeter discussion above, because a healthy Jeter will bat leadoff in the 2013 Yankees lineup, even if he probably shouldn't against right-handers. Jeter has a .330 on-base percentage against righties (and a .403 OBP against lefties) over the past three seasons combined, while Brett Gardner has a .361 mark against righties during that span. That the Yankees faced 101 right-handed starting pitchers in 162 games last season, and 105 per year from 2010-12, shows how important the Yankees' 2013 lineup construction against righties and lefties is.
My guess is that the Yankees won't maximize their lineup options: They'll probably go Jeter, Ichiro Suzuki (.309 OBP against righties in 2011-12), Mark Teixeira at 1-2-3 every day, relegating better on-base options -- Kevin Youkilis (.372 on-base from 2010-12) and Curtis Granderson (.348 against righties from 2010-12) -- to the 5-6-7 holes. While that wouldn't be a devastating arrangement, it'd likely result in outs being spent in a smaller number of team plate appearances per night, adversely impacting, even if only slightly, the team's run total. There are better ways for this team to maximize run potential, which is important in a year that the Yankees' lineup isn't as deep, and it's important to monitor their spring batting orders to see whether they're doing so.
My pitch: Gardner-Youkilis-Cano against righties, Jeter-Youkilis-Cano against lefties. There's little doubt, though, that Jeter batting 7-8-9 in the 100-plus games against righties would adversely impact his fantasy value.
[h=3]Madison Bumgarner, SP, San Francisco Giants[/h]
Bumgarner makes the list because, if healthy, he's a 23-year-old pitcher capable of 200 strikeouts, a sub-3.00 ERA and a WHIP close to 1.00, and a pitcher almost certain of scoring many votes in the Cy Young balloting. The problem is that, with the exception of his World Series Game 2 gem (7 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 8 K's), the last we saw of him was troubling: 2 quality starts, 5.92 ERA, 1.59 WHIP in his final 10 appearances (postseason -- even the Game 2 performance -- included), during which time his average fastball velocity was significantly down.
During that time, Bumgarner's fastball location was off, and he leaned more on his slider, which is troubling from an injury-candidate angle. I'm not saying I think Bumgarner is a lock to break down -- he is my No. 11 starting pitcher, after all -- but any further velocity/command issues would increase my concern.
[h=3]Alexi Ogando, RP, Texas Rangers[/h]
He's a "RP" initially, but the Rangers will audition Ogando for one of two rotation openings this spring, which is the right move. Let's talk skills: He is a fly ball pitcher (43.8 percent career rate) with a blazing fastball (95.0 mph average velocity in a starting role), biting slider and a passable changeup, a repertoire that seems silly relegated to short spurts, where the occasional homer would be perceived much more of a knock on his skills. He has 17 quality starts in 29 career games in a rotation role, with a 3.49 ERA and 1.12. Earning the No. 4 spot should earn him equal draft stock to his final 2011 stats: He was the No. 37 starter on our Player Rater.
[h=3]Los Angeles Angels batting order[/h]
Specifically, this refers to the No. 2 hole between Mike Trout and Albert Pujols, vacated when Torii Hunter signed with the Detroit Tigers. Yes, lineup construction is largely overrated and this merely hints at a small boost to a player's plate appearance and runs scored total, but batting second would be a lot bigger boost to Erick Aybar, Alberto Callaspo or Howard Kendrick's fantasy value than, say, sixth, seventh, eighth or ninth. Consider this: Hunter averaged 4.48 plate appearance and 0.67 runs per game as the No. 2 hitter last season, but 4.20 and 0.56 overall in his five-year stint with the Angels. Aybar or Kendrick would become more attractive -- perhaps making borderline runs at top-10 status at their positions -- with the extra PAs and runs, while Callaspo could be a beneath-the-radar AL-only pick if he nabs the spot.
[h=3]Bruce Rondon, RP, Detroit Tigers[/h]
The Tigers maintain that they're serious about their closer role being Rondon's to lose this spring, and based upon his lofty save and strikeout totals in the minors (29 saves, 11.21 K's per nine in 2012 alone), his progress is perhaps the most important to track of any "current closer." Most of the buzz surrounding him came from promising reports during his stint in the Venezuelan Winter League. Still, it's worth pointing out that he had a 4.41 ERA and 1.35 WHIP in his 18 appearances there, with his 19:6 K:BB performance being the one worth stressing. Rondon can touch 100 mph with his fastball, and there's any range of possibilities from near-Craig Kimbrel's-rookie-year to near-Carlos Marmol's-2012, and both of those assume he indeed keeps the job into the year. In his defense, he should: Openly labeled fallback option Phil Coke's lefty/righty splits suggest he should be more specialist than closer.
[h=3]Jason Kipnis, 2B, Cleveland Indians[/h]
He's the first of two "adjustment period" youngsters on the list, with that label applied because the final stages of his 2012 appeared exactly that: An adjustment period. During the second half of the year, he was increasingly busted up in the zone with fastballs, and his ground ball rate overall swelled to 52.3 percent. The Kipnis between All-Star breaks -- July 2011 to July 2012 -- was a .275-hitting, 18-homer, 25-steal player in 119 games played. That's the ceiling you're shooting for, and you'll pay a top-10-among-second-basemen draft pick to nab it. But it'd sure be nice to see him hitting at closer to those levels in March.
[h=3]Brett Lawrie, 3B, Toronto Blue Jays[/h]
Lawrie is the other youngster who finished 2012 in the midst of an adjustment period, and for which it'd be nice to see a glimmer of spring stardom. Like Kipnis, Lawrie's ground ball rate was disturbingly high last season, 51.0 percent for the full year, and his season broken down by halves showed struggles against pitches high in the zone -- previously a strength of his -- in the first half. Then in the second half, he showed improvement there but regression in pitches low in the zone. Lawrie has the makings of a 20-homer/20-steal candidate much in the David Wright mold, but he has work to do.
[h=3]Melky Cabrera, OF, Blue Jays[/h]
It's the question everyone seems to have this spring: How much of Cabrera's 2011-12 explosion was the product of PEDs, and how much was the result of an improving skill set as he moved into the prime years of his career? Without any on-field evidence -- Cabrera hasn't played a game of relevance since last Aug. 14 -- I am forced to assume it's mostly the latter, but as someone who might have seen every one of his 453 games played (postseason included) from 2007-09 and wasn't overwhelmed by his raw ability back then, I admit I have some doubts. Cabrera's spring stat line might be one of the very few this spring that has relevance across the board; a solid March could erase almost every question.
[h=3]Others I'm watching[/h]
Ivan Nova, SP, New York Yankees: His breaking stuff is outstanding, but his fastball is a mess, so improvement in the latter regard would not only earn him a rotation spot, it'd ease his prospective fantasy owners' minds.
Vance Worley, SP, Minnesota Twins: I think you must assume that his poor performance after July 1 last year was directly related to the elbow trouble he pitched through, then had repaired with surgery, but … March might tell us more.
Danny Espinosa, 2B/SS, Washington Nationals: He's playing through a rotator cuff (nonthrowing shoulder) injury, and he's already risky enough in terms of batting average that monitoring his health is imperative.
Colby Rasmus, OF, Blue Jays: He's 26 years old and has time to improve, but Rasmus' second half was awful, and he completely erased any memory of an encouraging 2012 first half.
Mike Napoli, C/1B, Boston Red Sox: I'm not as confident in his health as my colleagues are, ranking him significantly lower in my personal than our group ranks, but Napoli could convince me otherwise during camp.
Atlanta Braves batting order: Andrelton Simmons appears the de facto leadoff hitter, but whether his bat is advanced enough at this stage of his career is the question tied to the extent of his breakout potential.
Jurickson Profar, 2B, Texas Rangers: I'd say his glove is major league-ready and his bat is maybe a half-year off, but a strong spring could easily convince me otherwise and lead to him being one of 2013's top fantasy rookies.
Wil Myers, OF, Tampa Bay Rays: His bat is ready, but the Rays like to keep those free agency clocks in check. Myers is going to need an eye-popping spring to make the team, though he does have the skills to do it.
By Tristan H. Cockcroft | ESPN.com
There's a reason that spring training statistics are neither easily found nor very detailed: It's because they're almost entirely meaningless.
Oh sure, some spring numbers have relevance -- such as strikeouts and walks for pitchers, especially for those who might have performed poorly in the past in those departments. But for the most part, spring is not about the statistics. It's about roster developments, injury rehabilitation and player scouting. It's more about what the eye sees on the field than in the box score.
These next 37 days will afford (presumably) your first opportunity since October to see players about whom you might have some questions. If possible, read the daily updates about these players and catch at least two to three of the player's games to refine your opinion about him.
I understand many fantasy owners have jobs and lack the luxury of watching dozens of spring games. With that in mind, the list I've prepared for you below should help. This is the list of players I'll be tracking most closely during spring training, and it's what I call my annual "spring watch list." These are players, in my opinion, who possessed the widest range of 2013 possibilities at the dawn of spring training, making these next 37 days critical for each.
Let's illustrate the watch list's purpose with a drafting example. I play in two expert leagues each season; the first, the League of Alternative Baseball Reality (LABR), drafts the first weekend in March. Though this spring's schedule is accelerated due to the World Baseball Classic, spring camps have typically been open for only three weeks, and spring games are in their first few days by the time I sit down at the LABR draft table. There's no question, therefore, that the draft sheets I prepare, as well as the extensive winter research I have contributed in many forms to our Draft Kit, projections and player profiles, are based almost exclusively on player skills and immediate opportunity. In fact, some players' profiles might even include "watch him this spring," because they're the exact type of player I'm talking about. At LABR, I'll be guessing about these players, because in early March, that's what one must do.
The second, Tout Wars, typically drafts in the final full weekend preceding Opening Day. At this stage of the spring, roster decisions have mostly been made, players' injury status is well known, and I've reached my final opinion on every player. The draft sheet I prepare for Tout is vastly different. It weights opportunity much more, and it's based off projections that have a much higher probability of being correct because of a full spring's worth of knowledge gained.
What happens between these drafts ties into the "watch list." Yes, I'm watching every player during the spring. But these names -- and in a few instances, roster situations -- are the ones I'm tracking most, because my opinions of them are most likely to change during March.
With that, here's the list, with the players in no particular order.
Jason Heyward topped this list a year ago, and Hosmer's situation looks eerily similar entering 2013. "Heyward's swing is broken" was a common statement during 2012 spring training; expect to hear the same about Hosmer's this year. Here's why: Last season, he hit a slew of ground balls, more than 50 percent, and he proved incapable of adjusting to opponents' tendency to use defensive shifts against him, going from a 25 percent rate of hitting to the opposite field before the All-Star break to 16 percent after it. Hosmer had a .101 BABIP on pulled ground balls last season; he played right into the defense's hands.
In order for Hosmer to break out in his third season, therefore, he needs to make those adjustments -- just as Heyward did during March of 2012. Though shoulder problems might have contributed to Hosmer's late-season struggles, just as they did to Heyward's in 2011, we need evidence before saying he's this year's Heyward. For what it's worth, Heyward provided said evidence in the spring games and went on to have a fine season.
Jeter's health is one of the most critical situations to watch, and not simply because of the direct impact on his games played/plate appearances total. That's relevant; it's the per-plate appearance production that's most in flux. He is recovering from a fractured ankle, an ugly injury most everyone witnessed during last year's ALCS, and one he recently admitted was probably as a result of playing through pain since he first injured the ankle on Sept. 12. And here's why Jeter's recovery is key: A healthy Jeter logs the PAs and occupies a role that drives his value into the top 10 at one of the weakest positions in fantasy. A Jeter at anything less might warrant no more than middle-infield status in mixed formats, and he'd possess a downside that could drop him to near-replacement level in 10-team mixed leagues.
Statistically speaking, Jeter batted .279/.339/.324 and did not attempt a single stolen base in 25 games between the dates he initially hurt the ankle (Sept. 12), then fractured it (Oct. 13), and it's also worth mentioning that his 13 stolen base attempts for the season -- those in the first 140 games of 2012 -- were a career low. Jeter's mobility and speed are most critical to watch; a Jeter who steals less than 10 bases is far less likely to crack the top 10 shortstops than one who steals more. Edgar Renteria's final five seasons (ages 30-34) -- .279 batting average, 11 homers, 10 stolen bases per 162 games played -- might be a fair low-end comparison for Jeter, if either you or I don't like what we see.
This ties into the Jeter discussion above, because a healthy Jeter will bat leadoff in the 2013 Yankees lineup, even if he probably shouldn't against right-handers. Jeter has a .330 on-base percentage against righties (and a .403 OBP against lefties) over the past three seasons combined, while Brett Gardner has a .361 mark against righties during that span. That the Yankees faced 101 right-handed starting pitchers in 162 games last season, and 105 per year from 2010-12, shows how important the Yankees' 2013 lineup construction against righties and lefties is.
My guess is that the Yankees won't maximize their lineup options: They'll probably go Jeter, Ichiro Suzuki (.309 OBP against righties in 2011-12), Mark Teixeira at 1-2-3 every day, relegating better on-base options -- Kevin Youkilis (.372 on-base from 2010-12) and Curtis Granderson (.348 against righties from 2010-12) -- to the 5-6-7 holes. While that wouldn't be a devastating arrangement, it'd likely result in outs being spent in a smaller number of team plate appearances per night, adversely impacting, even if only slightly, the team's run total. There are better ways for this team to maximize run potential, which is important in a year that the Yankees' lineup isn't as deep, and it's important to monitor their spring batting orders to see whether they're doing so.
My pitch: Gardner-Youkilis-Cano against righties, Jeter-Youkilis-Cano against lefties. There's little doubt, though, that Jeter batting 7-8-9 in the 100-plus games against righties would adversely impact his fantasy value.
Bumgarner makes the list because, if healthy, he's a 23-year-old pitcher capable of 200 strikeouts, a sub-3.00 ERA and a WHIP close to 1.00, and a pitcher almost certain of scoring many votes in the Cy Young balloting. The problem is that, with the exception of his World Series Game 2 gem (7 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 8 K's), the last we saw of him was troubling: 2 quality starts, 5.92 ERA, 1.59 WHIP in his final 10 appearances (postseason -- even the Game 2 performance -- included), during which time his average fastball velocity was significantly down.
During that time, Bumgarner's fastball location was off, and he leaned more on his slider, which is troubling from an injury-candidate angle. I'm not saying I think Bumgarner is a lock to break down -- he is my No. 11 starting pitcher, after all -- but any further velocity/command issues would increase my concern.
He's a "RP" initially, but the Rangers will audition Ogando for one of two rotation openings this spring, which is the right move. Let's talk skills: He is a fly ball pitcher (43.8 percent career rate) with a blazing fastball (95.0 mph average velocity in a starting role), biting slider and a passable changeup, a repertoire that seems silly relegated to short spurts, where the occasional homer would be perceived much more of a knock on his skills. He has 17 quality starts in 29 career games in a rotation role, with a 3.49 ERA and 1.12. Earning the No. 4 spot should earn him equal draft stock to his final 2011 stats: He was the No. 37 starter on our Player Rater.
Specifically, this refers to the No. 2 hole between Mike Trout and Albert Pujols, vacated when Torii Hunter signed with the Detroit Tigers. Yes, lineup construction is largely overrated and this merely hints at a small boost to a player's plate appearance and runs scored total, but batting second would be a lot bigger boost to Erick Aybar, Alberto Callaspo or Howard Kendrick's fantasy value than, say, sixth, seventh, eighth or ninth. Consider this: Hunter averaged 4.48 plate appearance and 0.67 runs per game as the No. 2 hitter last season, but 4.20 and 0.56 overall in his five-year stint with the Angels. Aybar or Kendrick would become more attractive -- perhaps making borderline runs at top-10 status at their positions -- with the extra PAs and runs, while Callaspo could be a beneath-the-radar AL-only pick if he nabs the spot.
The Tigers maintain that they're serious about their closer role being Rondon's to lose this spring, and based upon his lofty save and strikeout totals in the minors (29 saves, 11.21 K's per nine in 2012 alone), his progress is perhaps the most important to track of any "current closer." Most of the buzz surrounding him came from promising reports during his stint in the Venezuelan Winter League. Still, it's worth pointing out that he had a 4.41 ERA and 1.35 WHIP in his 18 appearances there, with his 19:6 K:BB performance being the one worth stressing. Rondon can touch 100 mph with his fastball, and there's any range of possibilities from near-Craig Kimbrel's-rookie-year to near-Carlos Marmol's-2012, and both of those assume he indeed keeps the job into the year. In his defense, he should: Openly labeled fallback option Phil Coke's lefty/righty splits suggest he should be more specialist than closer.
He's the first of two "adjustment period" youngsters on the list, with that label applied because the final stages of his 2012 appeared exactly that: An adjustment period. During the second half of the year, he was increasingly busted up in the zone with fastballs, and his ground ball rate overall swelled to 52.3 percent. The Kipnis between All-Star breaks -- July 2011 to July 2012 -- was a .275-hitting, 18-homer, 25-steal player in 119 games played. That's the ceiling you're shooting for, and you'll pay a top-10-among-second-basemen draft pick to nab it. But it'd sure be nice to see him hitting at closer to those levels in March.
Lawrie is the other youngster who finished 2012 in the midst of an adjustment period, and for which it'd be nice to see a glimmer of spring stardom. Like Kipnis, Lawrie's ground ball rate was disturbingly high last season, 51.0 percent for the full year, and his season broken down by halves showed struggles against pitches high in the zone -- previously a strength of his -- in the first half. Then in the second half, he showed improvement there but regression in pitches low in the zone. Lawrie has the makings of a 20-homer/20-steal candidate much in the David Wright mold, but he has work to do.
It's the question everyone seems to have this spring: How much of Cabrera's 2011-12 explosion was the product of PEDs, and how much was the result of an improving skill set as he moved into the prime years of his career? Without any on-field evidence -- Cabrera hasn't played a game of relevance since last Aug. 14 -- I am forced to assume it's mostly the latter, but as someone who might have seen every one of his 453 games played (postseason included) from 2007-09 and wasn't overwhelmed by his raw ability back then, I admit I have some doubts. Cabrera's spring stat line might be one of the very few this spring that has relevance across the board; a solid March could erase almost every question.
[h=3]Others I'm watching[/h]
Ivan Nova, SP, New York Yankees: His breaking stuff is outstanding, but his fastball is a mess, so improvement in the latter regard would not only earn him a rotation spot, it'd ease his prospective fantasy owners' minds.
Vance Worley, SP, Minnesota Twins: I think you must assume that his poor performance after July 1 last year was directly related to the elbow trouble he pitched through, then had repaired with surgery, but … March might tell us more.
Danny Espinosa, 2B/SS, Washington Nationals: He's playing through a rotator cuff (nonthrowing shoulder) injury, and he's already risky enough in terms of batting average that monitoring his health is imperative.
Colby Rasmus, OF, Blue Jays: He's 26 years old and has time to improve, but Rasmus' second half was awful, and he completely erased any memory of an encouraging 2012 first half.
Mike Napoli, C/1B, Boston Red Sox: I'm not as confident in his health as my colleagues are, ranking him significantly lower in my personal than our group ranks, but Napoli could convince me otherwise during camp.
Atlanta Braves batting order: Andrelton Simmons appears the de facto leadoff hitter, but whether his bat is advanced enough at this stage of his career is the question tied to the extent of his breakout potential.
Jurickson Profar, 2B, Texas Rangers: I'd say his glove is major league-ready and his bat is maybe a half-year off, but a strong spring could easily convince me otherwise and lead to him being one of 2013's top fantasy rookies.
Wil Myers, OF, Tampa Bay Rays: His bat is ready, but the Rays like to keep those free agency clocks in check. Myers is going to need an eye-popping spring to make the team, though he does have the skills to do it.
And the top catcher bargain is ...
By Keith Lipscomb | ESPN.com
This represents the first in our series of "Spring Fever" preseason pieces, in which we offer bold opinions on key fantasy topics/players leading up to the regular season. <!-- Our full list of Spring Fever pieces can be found here. -->
It doesn't matter how many teams are in your fantasy league or what scoring format you use, we can all agree that nothing is better on draft day than getting a player at a great value.
The more mock drafts I take part in and the more I look at our rankings and average draft positions (ADPs), the stronger I feel about catcher being a position at which there is great opportunity to find said value, especially in leagues in which you start only one of them, such as our standard game on ESPN.com.
In one-catcher formats, I am almost always one of the final owners to draft a backstop, because I feel good enough about 10 to 12 of them to wait and strengthen my roster at thinner positions. However, there is one catcher in particular who has a great deal of promise and could offer the best return on investment among catchers in roto leagues this season: Salvador Perez.
Why am I such a big believer in a 22-year-old who has yet to play a full season in the big leagues? It has as much to do with Perez's considerable talent as it does where his projected fantasy peers are being selected.
[h=3]Dissecting Salvador Perez[/h]
When it comes to hitting, Perez takes it to its simplest form: See the ball, hit the ball. He's a contact hitter, and very rarely do his at-bats end without him doing so. His 9.6 percent swing-and-miss rate in 2012 was eighth best among the 265 players with at least 300 plate appearances, and his 8.9 percent strikeout rate was seventh best among the same group. Numbers such as those would normally lead you to believe he's selective at the plate, or that he's strictly a contact hitter with little power, yet his chase rate was 34.8 percent (231st out of 265). That makes the above contact numbers even more impressive. He may be a free-swinger, but he clearly has a good grasp of what pitches he can hit. In fact, only Melky Cabrera had a higher batting average on pitches outside the strike zone last season than Perez (both hit .337, but Cabrera finished percentage points higher).
[h=4]Lowest Swing-And-Miss Pct., 2012[/h]
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While it was unclear in the minors how soon Perez would develop more than just gap power, he has shown significant progress already. Remember those seven hitters with lower swing-and-miss rates than Perez? Well, they combined for 29 homers in 3,281 at-bats (0.9 percent HR rate). Perez's home run rate was more than four times higher: 3.8 percent (11 homers in 289 ABs).
What's even more encouraging is that he hits the ball hard to all fields. Four of the righty-hitting Perez's 11 homers went to right field. Only 19 other right-handed hitters in baseball hit more dingers to right field last season. Oh yeah, he did all of this after missing the first three months of the season after undergoing knee surgery during spring training.
To this point in his young career, Perez has played 115 games and compiled a .311/.339/.471 slash line, totaling 58 runs scored, 14 homers and 60 RBIs. For a player being taken as the 10th catcher overall -- and in the 20th round, no less -- you'd be thrilled to get those numbers with the potential for much more, especially because he's projected for 80 more at-bats than his career total.
Once you get past Victor Martinez in the positional rankings, very few catchers -- if any -- can offer the batting average boost that Perez can. And if he starts to hit righties with more authority than his .283/.308/.403 clip to this point in his career, the sky's the limit. We could have a major breakout performer on our hands.
[h=3]The catcher landscape[/h]
If you look at average draft positions, you'll see there is a clear first tier of six catchers: Buster Posey (whom many consider to be in his own tier), Yadier Molina, Matt Wieters, Joe Mauer, Carlos Santana and Victor Martinez. In a 10-team league, those guys will be gone by the end of Round 9, according to early live draft results. Then there's a pretty long wait -- 56 picks, to be exact -- before the next catcher, Mike Napoli, comes off the board. While Napoli is being selected 50 picks before Perez, I still consider him to be the first of Perez's aforementioned "fantasy peers," at least as it relates to value. Let's look at the ESPN projections for the next 10 catchers after the big six, using ADP.
[h=4]ADPs of Catchers ranked 7-16, with 2013 Projections[/h]
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Although I acknowledge Napoli's tremendous power potential, especially in Fenway Park, I also have some concerns that his hip could give him trouble during the season. And if the hip doesn't concern you, what about the fact that in the past three years, he has sandwiched .238 and .227 averages around his magical and never-to-be-done-again .320 season of 2011 (thanks to an out-of-whack BABIP 45 points higher than his career mark)? Head-to-head, Napoli takes homers by a wide margin, but Perez does the same in batting average. The other categories are basically even in the projections. If your team is sorely lacking in homers at this juncture, I can certainly understand selecting Napoli; otherwise, I'd advise waiting a few more rounds, shoring up your roster in other areas and making sure you don't get stuck with the dregs of the middle-infield pool.
If Napoli is the most sure thing in homers among this group, Miguel Montero is the player with the greatest probability of coming closest to his projection, because his numbers the past two seasons have been nearly identical. Even then, his only real projection advantage comes in RBIs. Montero makes for a nice value this late as well, but if I can get a comparable catcher like Perez a couple rounds later and add depth to my pitching staff or finish off my outfield instead, it's a rather easy choice to make.
Of the rest of the group, Wilin Rosario has great power, but he's certainly more of a batting average risk. Jonathan Lucroy is an intriguing option, but his .320 BA from last season is likely to regress quite a bit. Jesus Montero has a bright future as a hitter, but he'll have to overcome playing half his games in Safeco Field, where he posted .227/.268/.337 rates as a rookie. Brian McCann is on the downside of his career, and I expect 36-year-old A.J. Pierzynski to come back to earth after a shocking power display in 2012. Meanwhile, Jarrod Saltalamacchia's batting average is simply a killer, and while Ryan Doumit is coming off a fine season, injuries have often derailed him during his career.
In our Feb. 14 mock draft, Perez was the ninth catcher taken. (I waited a round too long, as Matthew Berry got him two picks before I was up … but that's my fault because he went at No. 177. I was just being greedy.)
The major league batting average has declined in each of the past six seasons; it was .269 in 2006, and has fallen all the way to last year's .255. Because of that, I'm placing a greater emphasis on batting average whenever I feel a player can make a significant difference without sacrificing too much in the other categories at his position. And because of that, Salvador Perez should easily outperform his draft position this season while batting in the middle of the Royals' lineup. And while it's not likely, if he can remain healthy for the entire season, it wouldn't completely shock me if he approached the top five catchers in fantasy.
Note for those of you in points leagues: Perez might not be as great a value in this format as he is in roto leagues, depending on your scoring system. Because he's a free-swinger, he hardly walks at all, as evidenced by his 3.9 percent walk rate in 2012. Of course if your league rewards for walks and penalizes for strikeouts, the impact will be rather minimal because he doesn't do much of either. But if your scoring rewards for walks only, then his overall value will clearly be muted some.
By Keith Lipscomb | ESPN.com
This represents the first in our series of "Spring Fever" preseason pieces, in which we offer bold opinions on key fantasy topics/players leading up to the regular season. <!-- Our full list of Spring Fever pieces can be found here. -->
It doesn't matter how many teams are in your fantasy league or what scoring format you use, we can all agree that nothing is better on draft day than getting a player at a great value.
The more mock drafts I take part in and the more I look at our rankings and average draft positions (ADPs), the stronger I feel about catcher being a position at which there is great opportunity to find said value, especially in leagues in which you start only one of them, such as our standard game on ESPN.com.
In one-catcher formats, I am almost always one of the final owners to draft a backstop, because I feel good enough about 10 to 12 of them to wait and strengthen my roster at thinner positions. However, there is one catcher in particular who has a great deal of promise and could offer the best return on investment among catchers in roto leagues this season: Salvador Perez.
Why am I such a big believer in a 22-year-old who has yet to play a full season in the big leagues? It has as much to do with Perez's considerable talent as it does where his projected fantasy peers are being selected.
[h=3]Dissecting Salvador Perez[/h]
When it comes to hitting, Perez takes it to its simplest form: See the ball, hit the ball. He's a contact hitter, and very rarely do his at-bats end without him doing so. His 9.6 percent swing-and-miss rate in 2012 was eighth best among the 265 players with at least 300 plate appearances, and his 8.9 percent strikeout rate was seventh best among the same group. Numbers such as those would normally lead you to believe he's selective at the plate, or that he's strictly a contact hitter with little power, yet his chase rate was 34.8 percent (231st out of 265). That makes the above contact numbers even more impressive. He may be a free-swinger, but he clearly has a good grasp of what pitches he can hit. In fact, only Melky Cabrera had a higher batting average on pitches outside the strike zone last season than Perez (both hit .337, but Cabrera finished percentage points higher).
[h=4]Lowest Swing-And-Miss Pct., 2012[/h]
| Player | Miss% | AB | HR |
|---|---|---|---|
| Marco Scutaro | 5.6 | 620 | 7 |
| Juan Pierre | 7.7 | 394 | 1 |
| Denard Span | 8.2 | 516 | 4 |
| Ben Revere | 8.3 | 511 | 0 |
| Jeff Keppinger | 8.4 | 385 | 9 |
| Michael Brantley | 8.5 | 552 | 6 |
| Placido Polanco | 9.0 | 303 | 2 |
| Salvador Perez | 9.6 | 289 | 11 |
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While it was unclear in the minors how soon Perez would develop more than just gap power, he has shown significant progress already. Remember those seven hitters with lower swing-and-miss rates than Perez? Well, they combined for 29 homers in 3,281 at-bats (0.9 percent HR rate). Perez's home run rate was more than four times higher: 3.8 percent (11 homers in 289 ABs).
What's even more encouraging is that he hits the ball hard to all fields. Four of the righty-hitting Perez's 11 homers went to right field. Only 19 other right-handed hitters in baseball hit more dingers to right field last season. Oh yeah, he did all of this after missing the first three months of the season after undergoing knee surgery during spring training.
To this point in his young career, Perez has played 115 games and compiled a .311/.339/.471 slash line, totaling 58 runs scored, 14 homers and 60 RBIs. For a player being taken as the 10th catcher overall -- and in the 20th round, no less -- you'd be thrilled to get those numbers with the potential for much more, especially because he's projected for 80 more at-bats than his career total.
Once you get past Victor Martinez in the positional rankings, very few catchers -- if any -- can offer the batting average boost that Perez can. And if he starts to hit righties with more authority than his .283/.308/.403 clip to this point in his career, the sky's the limit. We could have a major breakout performer on our hands.
[h=3]The catcher landscape[/h]
If you look at average draft positions, you'll see there is a clear first tier of six catchers: Buster Posey (whom many consider to be in his own tier), Yadier Molina, Matt Wieters, Joe Mauer, Carlos Santana and Victor Martinez. In a 10-team league, those guys will be gone by the end of Round 9, according to early live draft results. Then there's a pretty long wait -- 56 picks, to be exact -- before the next catcher, Mike Napoli, comes off the board. While Napoli is being selected 50 picks before Perez, I still consider him to be the first of Perez's aforementioned "fantasy peers," at least as it relates to value. Let's look at the ESPN projections for the next 10 catchers after the big six, using ADP.
[h=4]ADPs of Catchers ranked 7-16, with 2013 Projections[/h]
| Name | BA | R | HR | RBI | ADP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7. Mike Napoli | .264 | 64 | 28 | 69 | 142.1 |
| 8. Miguel Montero | .281 | 64 | 16 | 85 | 170.7 |
| 9. Wilin Rosario | .257 | 58 | 25 | 64 | 187.6 |
| 10. Salvador Perez | .298 | 60 | 15 | 70 | 192.1 |
| 11. Brian McCann | .261 | 45 | 18 | 63 | 210.2 |
| 12. Jesus Montero | .269 | 55 | 23 | 75 | 211.3 |
| 13. A.J. Pierzynski | .284 | 55 | 18 | 64 | 215.9 |
| 14. Jonathan Lucroy | .286 | 55 | 13 | 67 | 224.4 |
| 15. Jarrod Saltalamacchia | .229 | 58 | 22 | 63 | 225.9 |
| 16. Ryan Doumit | .275 | 48 | 16 | 64 | 229.5 |
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Although I acknowledge Napoli's tremendous power potential, especially in Fenway Park, I also have some concerns that his hip could give him trouble during the season. And if the hip doesn't concern you, what about the fact that in the past three years, he has sandwiched .238 and .227 averages around his magical and never-to-be-done-again .320 season of 2011 (thanks to an out-of-whack BABIP 45 points higher than his career mark)? Head-to-head, Napoli takes homers by a wide margin, but Perez does the same in batting average. The other categories are basically even in the projections. If your team is sorely lacking in homers at this juncture, I can certainly understand selecting Napoli; otherwise, I'd advise waiting a few more rounds, shoring up your roster in other areas and making sure you don't get stuck with the dregs of the middle-infield pool.
If Napoli is the most sure thing in homers among this group, Miguel Montero is the player with the greatest probability of coming closest to his projection, because his numbers the past two seasons have been nearly identical. Even then, his only real projection advantage comes in RBIs. Montero makes for a nice value this late as well, but if I can get a comparable catcher like Perez a couple rounds later and add depth to my pitching staff or finish off my outfield instead, it's a rather easy choice to make.
Of the rest of the group, Wilin Rosario has great power, but he's certainly more of a batting average risk. Jonathan Lucroy is an intriguing option, but his .320 BA from last season is likely to regress quite a bit. Jesus Montero has a bright future as a hitter, but he'll have to overcome playing half his games in Safeco Field, where he posted .227/.268/.337 rates as a rookie. Brian McCann is on the downside of his career, and I expect 36-year-old A.J. Pierzynski to come back to earth after a shocking power display in 2012. Meanwhile, Jarrod Saltalamacchia's batting average is simply a killer, and while Ryan Doumit is coming off a fine season, injuries have often derailed him during his career.
In our Feb. 14 mock draft, Perez was the ninth catcher taken. (I waited a round too long, as Matthew Berry got him two picks before I was up … but that's my fault because he went at No. 177. I was just being greedy.)
The major league batting average has declined in each of the past six seasons; it was .269 in 2006, and has fallen all the way to last year's .255. Because of that, I'm placing a greater emphasis on batting average whenever I feel a player can make a significant difference without sacrificing too much in the other categories at his position. And because of that, Salvador Perez should easily outperform his draft position this season while batting in the middle of the Royals' lineup. And while it's not likely, if he can remain healthy for the entire season, it wouldn't completely shock me if he approached the top five catchers in fantasy.
Note for those of you in points leagues: Perez might not be as great a value in this format as he is in roto leagues, depending on your scoring system. Because he's a free-swinger, he hardly walks at all, as evidenced by his 3.9 percent walk rate in 2012. Of course if your league rewards for walks and penalizes for strikeouts, the impact will be rather minimal because he doesn't do much of either. But if your scoring rewards for walks only, then his overall value will clearly be muted some.
2013 Position Preview: Catcher
By Brian Gramling | Special to ESPN.com
The catcher position has historically been the weakest of all the offensive positions in fantasy baseball, and this year is no exception. But that doesn't mean the backstops are useless. Before you decide to wait until the final round (or spend your final auction dollars) to fill out your catcher position, consider that there certainly are some squatters who deserve better than this final-round fate.
Power is the area where most catchers can help a fantasy ballclub, as 24 backstops smacked 10-plus homers, and nine of them hit at least 20 taters. Eighteen catchers compiled at least 50 RBIs, and 11 of those players knocked in 65 or more runs.
However, many of these sluggers were absolute destroyers of team batting averages; 10 of the 24 double-digit-homer catchers hit .233 or worse. And of the 47 catchers with at least 200 plate appearances last year, 19 of those players (40 percent) batted .230 or below. This, of course, makes the five backstops who batted .315 or better (Buster Posey, Carlos Ruiz, Jonathan Lucroy, Joe Mauer and Yadier Molina) that much more valuable than .300 hitters playing "mask-less" positions in the field.
Do you have the need for speed? Try your luck elsewhere, as there were just three catchers who amassed more than five stolen bases in 2012: Yadier Molina (12), Joe Mauer (8) and Russell Martin (6). This lack of steals and typical low lineup placement led to just three catchers reaching 70 runs scored in 2012: Mauer (81), Posey (78) and Carlos Santana (72). Meanwhile, 13 backstops scored 50-plus runs, with eight of those players touching home at least 65 times.
For leagues that start just one catcher, the depth here is sufficient enough that there's no need to panic if you don't get Buster Posey. But for fantasy leagues requiring two starting catchers, there is a significant drop-off in talent at about the No. 16 mark (if not before that). The quality of talent between Nos. 17 and 26 doesn't appear to be all that different, so don't reach for a catcher ranked in that range. If you do not secure one of the top 16, you can always wait until the very end, and even have teammates as your backstop to guarantee playing time every day. Only nine catchers qualified for their league's batting title last year. The position is the most physically demanding, and there are plenty of waiver-wire options because no self-respecting owner starts a catcher at his or her utility slot, not to mention there's a lot of turnover due to the high number of injuries that occur to backstops compared to other positions.
[h=3]Cream of the Crop[/h]
Buster Posey is the creamiest of all crops here, as the gap between him and all other catchers is the widest between the top guy and his peer group in any position this year. Posey is rightfully in the top 20 overall in our rankings, and the second-best catcher, Yadier Molina, is inside the top 60. If Posey is not the top catcher selected in a draft, then something is very, very wrong. He is 26 years old, the reigning National League MVP and will probably log close to 150 games again because he also plays first base, starting 29 games there in 2012. Posey led the majors in hitting (.336 batting average) and drove in 15 more runs than any other catcher in the majors. Posey's 78 runs were topped only by Joe Mauer at his position, and maybe most impressive were Posey's 24 homers (tied for fourth among catchers), only seven of which came at AT&T Park, which was by far the hardest stadium to hit home runs in during the 2012 season, according to our park factors page.
There are four other top-tier fantasy catchers: Yadier Molina, Matt Wieters, Joe Mauer and Carlos Santana. This quartet is all age 30 or younger, and all four have many desirable qualities:
Molina is coming off a career-best season in virtually every offensive category, including a head-shaking 12 stolen bases, the most of any catcher. He has caught at least 135 games in each of the past four seasons, and there's no reason to expect him to slow down (except maybe on the bases) in his age-30 season.
Wieters is just 26 and has been healthy enough to log at least 130 games in three straight seasons. Batting in the middle of an improving lineup will only help him get closer to reaching the gaudy potential that made him the fifth overall pick in the 2007 MLB draft. Wieters should really consider batting right-handed all the time, as he finished with a .908 OPS from the right side of the plate, but just .715 OPS as a lefty in 2012.
Although Mauer is entering his 10th major league season, he doesn't turn 30 until April. He stayed fresh with 30 starts at first base last year, and was consistently excellent, posting an on-base percentage of .378 or better in all six months. He also posted an incredible .372 BA/.500 OBP/.514 SLG line in 148 at-bats with runners in scoring position, showing he can produce numbers no matter how bad the other hitters in his lineup are.
Santana experienced a slight power dip in 2012 (from 27 to 18 homers), but exploded for a .283 BA/.368 OBP/.504 SLG in the final 65 games of the season, which could be a sign of a breakout 2013 campaign. His plate discipline (91 BBs, 101 K's) goes well beyond his 26 years and should keep him near the top of this list for the next seven years or so.
The sixth-best catcher is Victor Martinez, who is an interesting case because he did not play at all in 2012 due to a torn ACL. He's now 34 years old and might not qualify at catcher in rigid fantasy leagues that count last year as zero games caught. And some fantasy league commissioners may simply rule that Martinez no longer qualifies as a catcher due to the speculation that he's not likely to ever put on the catcher's gear again because of his surgically repaired knee. He also has hit just nine homers in 436 career at-bats at spacious Comerica Park, making him less of a power option than he has been in the past, with five career 20-homer campaigns.
[h=3]The Next Best Thing[/h]
After Victor Martinez (No. 89 overall) there is a big gap before you hit this next tier, starting with Mike Napoli at No. 156 overall. He is likely the biggest question mark of the top 10 with his hip condition, but will once again be hitting in the middle of a great batting order and playing half his games in a more hitter-friendly stadium, as Fenway Park (1.206) ranked slightly ahead of Rangers Ballpark (1.183) for runs in ESPN's Park Factors for 2012.
Three other potential difference-makers, especially in long-term keeper leagues, at the catcher position include three players who are 24 or younger: Wilin Rosario, Salvador Perez and Jesus Montero.
Rosario sure loved playing at Coors Field in 2012, posting an OPS 236 points higher at home than on the road. This difference was even more prevalent after Aug. 1, as he posted a slash line of .442/.500/.844, with nine homers and 23 RBIs in 23 games in Colorado, but slashed just .204/.233/.337, with 3 homers and 8 RBIs in 27 road games over the season's final two months.
Perez will turn 23 in May and put together an excellent 2012 season despite missing nearly half of it after tearing his meniscus in spring training. Perez posted an .872 OPS with runners on base last season, showing he has 75-RBI potential batting in the fifth spot of a Kansas City Royals lineup that is getting better and better.
Jesus Montero might not be the highest Montero on our list (Miguel Montero is No. 7), but the only thing keeping him below 25 homers is Safeco Field, the second-hardest park to hit long balls in last year. He split time between catcher and designated hitter in 2012, but was much more effective when calling pitches (.841 OPS in 213 ABs as a catcher) as opposed to sitting in the dugout between at-bats (.574 OPS in 301 ABs as a DH). And with Seattle's signing of two DH-types in Kendrys Morales and Raul Ibanez, Montero likely will play more behind the plate in 2013.
[h=3]Where's The Ceiling?[/h]
Jonathan Lucroy had just 316 at-bats last season, but still finished ninth in the 2012 Player Rater with a well-rounded stat line highlighted by a .320 batting average. The 26-year-old wasn't a product of Miller Field either, as his .348 road batting average ranked third in the majors among all players with at least 150 road plate appearances. Only Juan Pierre (.376 road BA) and juiced-up Melky Cabrera (.367 road BA) posted higher averages on the road than Lucroy did.
<!-- INLINE MODULE -->[h=4]Snapshot[/h]Midround sleepers:
Ryan Doumit, J.P. Arencibia
Late-round sleepers:
Yasmani Grandal, John Jaso
Prospects: Mike Zunino, Travis d'Arnaud
Top-10 player I wouldn't draft: Mike Napoli
Player to trade at the All-Star break: Jonathan Lucroy, Jarrod Saltalamacchia
Player to trade for at the ASB: Jesus Montero, Mike Napoli
Home hero: Wilin Rosario
Road warrior: Chris Iannetta
Player I inexplicably like: Wilson Ramos
Player I inexplicably dislike: Jarrod Saltalamacchia
<!-- END INLINE MODULE -->
Ryan Doumit enjoyed a power surge in his first season in the American League, posting career highs in homers (18) and RBIs (75). He didn't really suffer any prolonged slumps, but he could've been more productive in clutch situations, batting just .239 with runners in scoring position and hitting .217 in late-inning pressure situations. At age 31, he could still be on the incline portion of his career bell curve.
J.P. Arencibia and Alex Avila are still young enough at age 27 and 26, respectively, to have their breakout seasons in 2013. Both players are part of potent lineups, but Arencibia provides more power, while Avila is a more natural gap hitter who is much more patient at the plate.
[h=3]Where's The Basement?[/h]
Unfortunately, the "basement" is pretty crowded at this position, as only 17 catchers are listed among the rankings for the top 300 fantasy players. However, most leagues require more than 17 starting catchers, so here are a few names to fill your roster with:
Russell Martin goes from hitter haven Yankee Stadium to spacious PNC Park, but maybe now he'll stop trying to hit the ball out of the park and attempt to hit more doubles again. Martin's batting average has dropped in each of the past five seasons to a puzzling .211 last year, but he's still just 29 years old, and his career numbers versus National League pitching (.270 BA, .363 OBP) are much better than when he faces AL arms (.237 BA, .330 OBP).
John Jaso finished third among all major leaguers with a 1.106 OPS with runners in scoring position last year, driving in 40 runs in just 74 at-bats in this scenario. His move to the Oakland Athletics (4.3 runs per game) from the Seattle Mariners (3.8 runs per game) can only help bolster his RBI totals, especially if he's playing nearly every day as the team's primary catcher.
Yasmani Grandal is a good-looking 24-year-old who posted a .967 OPS in road games last season. But playing half the time at Petco Park will cap his power numbers, even though he does show good plate discipline with nearly as many walks (31) as strikeouts (39) last season. He mostly batted fifth in the San Diego Padres' order last year, which is rare for a National League catcher, but this also shows how bad his other teammates are. There's also that matter of that 50-game suspension he'll have to serve at the beginning of the season.
[h=3]Steady As He Goes[/h]
A.J. Pierzynski has to slow down eventually, but you can't overlook his head-scratching power surge at age 36 last year, when he went from 8 homers to 27 long balls in just 15 more at-bats. However, 18 of those homers were in Chicago; Pierzynski struggled on the road, notching a dreadful .296 on-base percentage. Texas is also a hitter-friendly venue, but the Texas Rangers' lineup looks a lot less potent this season without Josh Hamilton and Mike Napoli.
Other players not to forget about in the later rounds are two seasoned veterans who could both miss time, Carlos Ruiz and Brian McCann. Ruiz will sit out the first 25 games of the season after testing positive for amphetamines, but he was too good last year to ignore. Ruiz batted .368/.443/.600 with RISP and posted a .940 OPS on the road in 2012. The Philadelphia Phillies' lineup should be much more potent this season with a healthier duo of Ryan Howard and Chase Utley, plus the additions of Ben Revere and Michael Young, so there should be more chances for Ruiz to rack up runs and RBIs.
McCann suffered a torn labrum last season and underwent surgery right after the season. Initial thoughts were that he would miss one or two months, but McCann is saying he's ahead of schedule and expects to be in the lineup on Opening Day. If this happens, look for him to climb a few spots in our rankings, because despite last year's sharp drop in batting average down to .230 (.167 BA with RISP), he still smacked 20 homers for the fifth straight season. He'll continue to get plenty of RBI opportunities hitting cleanup for the Atlanta Braves.
[h=3]Thanks But No Thanks: The Do-Not-Draft List[/h]
Kurt Suzuki's days as an everyday player are numbered with 25-year-old future stud Wilson Ramos inevitably taking his starting role. Suzuki was batting .211 with zero homers in 232 at-bats in the first half of 2012, but he salvaged his season with an .836 OPS in September.
Chris Iannetta's decent numbers in the early part of his career could be attributed mostly to Coors Field, where he batted .262 with a .492 slugging percentage. But in every other major league ballpark, he's a .216 hitter with a .376 SLG. And last season he batted .189 (10-for-53) with RISP and slugged .304 at Angel Stadium.
Tyler Flowers is the Chicago White Sox's new starting catcher, and he has 20-homer potential. But that power comes with a price. In 273 major league at-bats, Flowers has batted .205 with an eye-popping 107 strikeouts, or once every 2.6 at-bats.
[h=3]Talkin' prospects[/h]
Mike Zunino turns 22 in March and was the No. 3 overall pick in last June's draft. In 44 minor league games in Class A and Double-A, Zunino posted a .360/.447/.689 slash line. He also smacked 13 homers in 161 at-bats with considerably more RBIs (43) than strikeouts (33).
Travis d'Arnaud will eventually be the everyday backstop for the New York Mets, but he might start the 2013 season in the minors. He just turned 24, and he tore up Triple-A Las Vegas last year with a .333/.380/.595 slash line in 67 games, belting 16 homers with 52 RBIs. We could see the Mets quickly tiring of starting catcher John Buck, who is coming off a .192/.297/.347 line in Miami. Mr. d'Arnaud could be in the majors by the end of May.
Austin Romine might not be starting behind the dish for the New York Yankees on Opening Day, but he could very well receive the most at-bats of any Yankees backstop this season. His minor league numbers aren't overwhelming (.278/.333/.414) but at age 24, he could develop into a 15-homer, 70-RBI player with regular time in the Bronx.
Rob Brantly is just 23, and he posted an .832 OPS in 100 at-bats with the Miami Marlins last season. He'll be the team's regular backstop in 2013 and should be a serviceable fantasy option for leagues that start two catchers.
[h=3]Points Versus Roto[/h]
Points-based fantasy leagues seek the well-rounded players who do a little (or preferably a lot) in every major category. Besides the obvious elite catchers such as Buster Posey and Yadier Molina, guys like Miguel Montero and Jonathan Lucroy always seem to help in some capacity, both weekly and throughout the season. It helps that both players log half of their games in hitter-friendly parks, as Chase Field and Miller Park ranked sixth and seventh in the majors for runs in the 2012 Park Factors.
For Roto leagues, the goal is to capture players who are strong in the specific categories, but the catcher position doesn't have too many specialists, especially in the stolen base category. But there are some players who can really boost your batting average outside of the top dogs. Carlos Ruiz, A.J. Pierzynski and Yasmin Grandal are all projected to hit above .280 this season. If you're craving sluggers, take a flier on Jarrod Saltalamacchia, J.P Arencibia or Tyler Flowers, who are all capable of 20-homer seasons.
[h=3]Bottom Line[/h]
There are certainly more "important" positions to focus on in the early rounds than catcher, as Buster Posey is the only backstop who needs to be drafted in the first five rounds in a standard-sized league. There are a few other top-notch catchers, but the depth at this position runs about 16 deep before thinning out. This isn't the place to find speedsters, though catchers do possess some forgotten power. There are plenty of squatters under the age of 27 who not only have a good amount of upside, but will also be available in the waning moments of your draft.
By Brian Gramling | Special to ESPN.com
The catcher position has historically been the weakest of all the offensive positions in fantasy baseball, and this year is no exception. But that doesn't mean the backstops are useless. Before you decide to wait until the final round (or spend your final auction dollars) to fill out your catcher position, consider that there certainly are some squatters who deserve better than this final-round fate.
Power is the area where most catchers can help a fantasy ballclub, as 24 backstops smacked 10-plus homers, and nine of them hit at least 20 taters. Eighteen catchers compiled at least 50 RBIs, and 11 of those players knocked in 65 or more runs.
However, many of these sluggers were absolute destroyers of team batting averages; 10 of the 24 double-digit-homer catchers hit .233 or worse. And of the 47 catchers with at least 200 plate appearances last year, 19 of those players (40 percent) batted .230 or below. This, of course, makes the five backstops who batted .315 or better (Buster Posey, Carlos Ruiz, Jonathan Lucroy, Joe Mauer and Yadier Molina) that much more valuable than .300 hitters playing "mask-less" positions in the field.
Do you have the need for speed? Try your luck elsewhere, as there were just three catchers who amassed more than five stolen bases in 2012: Yadier Molina (12), Joe Mauer (8) and Russell Martin (6). This lack of steals and typical low lineup placement led to just three catchers reaching 70 runs scored in 2012: Mauer (81), Posey (78) and Carlos Santana (72). Meanwhile, 13 backstops scored 50-plus runs, with eight of those players touching home at least 65 times.
For leagues that start just one catcher, the depth here is sufficient enough that there's no need to panic if you don't get Buster Posey. But for fantasy leagues requiring two starting catchers, there is a significant drop-off in talent at about the No. 16 mark (if not before that). The quality of talent between Nos. 17 and 26 doesn't appear to be all that different, so don't reach for a catcher ranked in that range. If you do not secure one of the top 16, you can always wait until the very end, and even have teammates as your backstop to guarantee playing time every day. Only nine catchers qualified for their league's batting title last year. The position is the most physically demanding, and there are plenty of waiver-wire options because no self-respecting owner starts a catcher at his or her utility slot, not to mention there's a lot of turnover due to the high number of injuries that occur to backstops compared to other positions.
[h=3]Cream of the Crop[/h]
Buster Posey is the creamiest of all crops here, as the gap between him and all other catchers is the widest between the top guy and his peer group in any position this year. Posey is rightfully in the top 20 overall in our rankings, and the second-best catcher, Yadier Molina, is inside the top 60. If Posey is not the top catcher selected in a draft, then something is very, very wrong. He is 26 years old, the reigning National League MVP and will probably log close to 150 games again because he also plays first base, starting 29 games there in 2012. Posey led the majors in hitting (.336 batting average) and drove in 15 more runs than any other catcher in the majors. Posey's 78 runs were topped only by Joe Mauer at his position, and maybe most impressive were Posey's 24 homers (tied for fourth among catchers), only seven of which came at AT&T Park, which was by far the hardest stadium to hit home runs in during the 2012 season, according to our park factors page.
There are four other top-tier fantasy catchers: Yadier Molina, Matt Wieters, Joe Mauer and Carlos Santana. This quartet is all age 30 or younger, and all four have many desirable qualities:
Molina is coming off a career-best season in virtually every offensive category, including a head-shaking 12 stolen bases, the most of any catcher. He has caught at least 135 games in each of the past four seasons, and there's no reason to expect him to slow down (except maybe on the bases) in his age-30 season.
Wieters is just 26 and has been healthy enough to log at least 130 games in three straight seasons. Batting in the middle of an improving lineup will only help him get closer to reaching the gaudy potential that made him the fifth overall pick in the 2007 MLB draft. Wieters should really consider batting right-handed all the time, as he finished with a .908 OPS from the right side of the plate, but just .715 OPS as a lefty in 2012.
Although Mauer is entering his 10th major league season, he doesn't turn 30 until April. He stayed fresh with 30 starts at first base last year, and was consistently excellent, posting an on-base percentage of .378 or better in all six months. He also posted an incredible .372 BA/.500 OBP/.514 SLG line in 148 at-bats with runners in scoring position, showing he can produce numbers no matter how bad the other hitters in his lineup are.
Santana experienced a slight power dip in 2012 (from 27 to 18 homers), but exploded for a .283 BA/.368 OBP/.504 SLG in the final 65 games of the season, which could be a sign of a breakout 2013 campaign. His plate discipline (91 BBs, 101 K's) goes well beyond his 26 years and should keep him near the top of this list for the next seven years or so.
The sixth-best catcher is Victor Martinez, who is an interesting case because he did not play at all in 2012 due to a torn ACL. He's now 34 years old and might not qualify at catcher in rigid fantasy leagues that count last year as zero games caught. And some fantasy league commissioners may simply rule that Martinez no longer qualifies as a catcher due to the speculation that he's not likely to ever put on the catcher's gear again because of his surgically repaired knee. He also has hit just nine homers in 436 career at-bats at spacious Comerica Park, making him less of a power option than he has been in the past, with five career 20-homer campaigns.
[h=3]The Next Best Thing[/h]
After Victor Martinez (No. 89 overall) there is a big gap before you hit this next tier, starting with Mike Napoli at No. 156 overall. He is likely the biggest question mark of the top 10 with his hip condition, but will once again be hitting in the middle of a great batting order and playing half his games in a more hitter-friendly stadium, as Fenway Park (1.206) ranked slightly ahead of Rangers Ballpark (1.183) for runs in ESPN's Park Factors for 2012.
Three other potential difference-makers, especially in long-term keeper leagues, at the catcher position include three players who are 24 or younger: Wilin Rosario, Salvador Perez and Jesus Montero.
Rosario sure loved playing at Coors Field in 2012, posting an OPS 236 points higher at home than on the road. This difference was even more prevalent after Aug. 1, as he posted a slash line of .442/.500/.844, with nine homers and 23 RBIs in 23 games in Colorado, but slashed just .204/.233/.337, with 3 homers and 8 RBIs in 27 road games over the season's final two months.
Perez will turn 23 in May and put together an excellent 2012 season despite missing nearly half of it after tearing his meniscus in spring training. Perez posted an .872 OPS with runners on base last season, showing he has 75-RBI potential batting in the fifth spot of a Kansas City Royals lineup that is getting better and better.
Jesus Montero might not be the highest Montero on our list (Miguel Montero is No. 7), but the only thing keeping him below 25 homers is Safeco Field, the second-hardest park to hit long balls in last year. He split time between catcher and designated hitter in 2012, but was much more effective when calling pitches (.841 OPS in 213 ABs as a catcher) as opposed to sitting in the dugout between at-bats (.574 OPS in 301 ABs as a DH). And with Seattle's signing of two DH-types in Kendrys Morales and Raul Ibanez, Montero likely will play more behind the plate in 2013.
[h=3]Where's The Ceiling?[/h]
Jonathan Lucroy had just 316 at-bats last season, but still finished ninth in the 2012 Player Rater with a well-rounded stat line highlighted by a .320 batting average. The 26-year-old wasn't a product of Miller Field either, as his .348 road batting average ranked third in the majors among all players with at least 150 road plate appearances. Only Juan Pierre (.376 road BA) and juiced-up Melky Cabrera (.367 road BA) posted higher averages on the road than Lucroy did.
<!-- INLINE MODULE -->[h=4]Snapshot[/h]Midround sleepers:
Ryan Doumit, J.P. Arencibia
Late-round sleepers:
Yasmani Grandal, John Jaso
Prospects: Mike Zunino, Travis d'Arnaud
Top-10 player I wouldn't draft: Mike Napoli
Player to trade at the All-Star break: Jonathan Lucroy, Jarrod Saltalamacchia
Player to trade for at the ASB: Jesus Montero, Mike Napoli
Home hero: Wilin Rosario
Road warrior: Chris Iannetta
Player I inexplicably like: Wilson Ramos
Player I inexplicably dislike: Jarrod Saltalamacchia
<!-- END INLINE MODULE -->
Ryan Doumit enjoyed a power surge in his first season in the American League, posting career highs in homers (18) and RBIs (75). He didn't really suffer any prolonged slumps, but he could've been more productive in clutch situations, batting just .239 with runners in scoring position and hitting .217 in late-inning pressure situations. At age 31, he could still be on the incline portion of his career bell curve.
J.P. Arencibia and Alex Avila are still young enough at age 27 and 26, respectively, to have their breakout seasons in 2013. Both players are part of potent lineups, but Arencibia provides more power, while Avila is a more natural gap hitter who is much more patient at the plate.
[h=3]Where's The Basement?[/h]
Unfortunately, the "basement" is pretty crowded at this position, as only 17 catchers are listed among the rankings for the top 300 fantasy players. However, most leagues require more than 17 starting catchers, so here are a few names to fill your roster with:
Russell Martin goes from hitter haven Yankee Stadium to spacious PNC Park, but maybe now he'll stop trying to hit the ball out of the park and attempt to hit more doubles again. Martin's batting average has dropped in each of the past five seasons to a puzzling .211 last year, but he's still just 29 years old, and his career numbers versus National League pitching (.270 BA, .363 OBP) are much better than when he faces AL arms (.237 BA, .330 OBP).
John Jaso finished third among all major leaguers with a 1.106 OPS with runners in scoring position last year, driving in 40 runs in just 74 at-bats in this scenario. His move to the Oakland Athletics (4.3 runs per game) from the Seattle Mariners (3.8 runs per game) can only help bolster his RBI totals, especially if he's playing nearly every day as the team's primary catcher.
Yasmani Grandal is a good-looking 24-year-old who posted a .967 OPS in road games last season. But playing half the time at Petco Park will cap his power numbers, even though he does show good plate discipline with nearly as many walks (31) as strikeouts (39) last season. He mostly batted fifth in the San Diego Padres' order last year, which is rare for a National League catcher, but this also shows how bad his other teammates are. There's also that matter of that 50-game suspension he'll have to serve at the beginning of the season.
[h=3]Steady As He Goes[/h]
A.J. Pierzynski has to slow down eventually, but you can't overlook his head-scratching power surge at age 36 last year, when he went from 8 homers to 27 long balls in just 15 more at-bats. However, 18 of those homers were in Chicago; Pierzynski struggled on the road, notching a dreadful .296 on-base percentage. Texas is also a hitter-friendly venue, but the Texas Rangers' lineup looks a lot less potent this season without Josh Hamilton and Mike Napoli.
Other players not to forget about in the later rounds are two seasoned veterans who could both miss time, Carlos Ruiz and Brian McCann. Ruiz will sit out the first 25 games of the season after testing positive for amphetamines, but he was too good last year to ignore. Ruiz batted .368/.443/.600 with RISP and posted a .940 OPS on the road in 2012. The Philadelphia Phillies' lineup should be much more potent this season with a healthier duo of Ryan Howard and Chase Utley, plus the additions of Ben Revere and Michael Young, so there should be more chances for Ruiz to rack up runs and RBIs.
McCann suffered a torn labrum last season and underwent surgery right after the season. Initial thoughts were that he would miss one or two months, but McCann is saying he's ahead of schedule and expects to be in the lineup on Opening Day. If this happens, look for him to climb a few spots in our rankings, because despite last year's sharp drop in batting average down to .230 (.167 BA with RISP), he still smacked 20 homers for the fifth straight season. He'll continue to get plenty of RBI opportunities hitting cleanup for the Atlanta Braves.
[h=3]Thanks But No Thanks: The Do-Not-Draft List[/h]
Kurt Suzuki's days as an everyday player are numbered with 25-year-old future stud Wilson Ramos inevitably taking his starting role. Suzuki was batting .211 with zero homers in 232 at-bats in the first half of 2012, but he salvaged his season with an .836 OPS in September.
Chris Iannetta's decent numbers in the early part of his career could be attributed mostly to Coors Field, where he batted .262 with a .492 slugging percentage. But in every other major league ballpark, he's a .216 hitter with a .376 SLG. And last season he batted .189 (10-for-53) with RISP and slugged .304 at Angel Stadium.
Tyler Flowers is the Chicago White Sox's new starting catcher, and he has 20-homer potential. But that power comes with a price. In 273 major league at-bats, Flowers has batted .205 with an eye-popping 107 strikeouts, or once every 2.6 at-bats.
[h=3]Talkin' prospects[/h]
Mike Zunino turns 22 in March and was the No. 3 overall pick in last June's draft. In 44 minor league games in Class A and Double-A, Zunino posted a .360/.447/.689 slash line. He also smacked 13 homers in 161 at-bats with considerably more RBIs (43) than strikeouts (33).
Travis d'Arnaud will eventually be the everyday backstop for the New York Mets, but he might start the 2013 season in the minors. He just turned 24, and he tore up Triple-A Las Vegas last year with a .333/.380/.595 slash line in 67 games, belting 16 homers with 52 RBIs. We could see the Mets quickly tiring of starting catcher John Buck, who is coming off a .192/.297/.347 line in Miami. Mr. d'Arnaud could be in the majors by the end of May.
Austin Romine might not be starting behind the dish for the New York Yankees on Opening Day, but he could very well receive the most at-bats of any Yankees backstop this season. His minor league numbers aren't overwhelming (.278/.333/.414) but at age 24, he could develop into a 15-homer, 70-RBI player with regular time in the Bronx.
Rob Brantly is just 23, and he posted an .832 OPS in 100 at-bats with the Miami Marlins last season. He'll be the team's regular backstop in 2013 and should be a serviceable fantasy option for leagues that start two catchers.
[h=3]Points Versus Roto[/h]
Points-based fantasy leagues seek the well-rounded players who do a little (or preferably a lot) in every major category. Besides the obvious elite catchers such as Buster Posey and Yadier Molina, guys like Miguel Montero and Jonathan Lucroy always seem to help in some capacity, both weekly and throughout the season. It helps that both players log half of their games in hitter-friendly parks, as Chase Field and Miller Park ranked sixth and seventh in the majors for runs in the 2012 Park Factors.
For Roto leagues, the goal is to capture players who are strong in the specific categories, but the catcher position doesn't have too many specialists, especially in the stolen base category. But there are some players who can really boost your batting average outside of the top dogs. Carlos Ruiz, A.J. Pierzynski and Yasmin Grandal are all projected to hit above .280 this season. If you're craving sluggers, take a flier on Jarrod Saltalamacchia, J.P Arencibia or Tyler Flowers, who are all capable of 20-homer seasons.
[h=3]Bottom Line[/h]
There are certainly more "important" positions to focus on in the early rounds than catcher, as Buster Posey is the only backstop who needs to be drafted in the first five rounds in a standard-sized league. There are a few other top-notch catchers, but the depth at this position runs about 16 deep before thinning out. This isn't the place to find speedsters, though catchers do possess some forgotten power. There are plenty of squatters under the age of 27 who not only have a good amount of upside, but will also be available in the waning moments of your draft.
Dissecting win percentage for pitchers
By AJ Mass | ESPN.com
When it comes to winning something, there are few cases out there in which the victory was a solo effort. Take musician Nate Mendel, for example. He has won 11 Grammy Awards since 1994, but odds are his trophy case would still be bare if not for the efforts of his Foo Fighters bandmates Dave Grohl and Taylor Hawkins. After all, bass guitarists such as Mendel rarely get noticed on their own.
The same need for a "little help from my friends" holds true for major league pitchers. Too many factors go into whether or not a starter ultimately ends up with a "W" at the end of his pitching day, not the least of which is the run support of his lineup (i.e. whether or not it can score enough to make that starter's efforts bear fruit). For instance, is it really Wandy Rodriguez's fault he lost four games in 2012 in which he pitched at least seven innings while allowing three or fewer runs? No more than Yu Darvish should be praised for winning four games in which he failed to finish seven innings while allowing three or more runs.
Which pitcher would you rather have on the mound for one start? By way of answering that question, the fact Rodriguez more often left his team in a position to win should hold far more weight than the 160-point edge Darvish had in terms of winning percentage … Which brings us to the new stat I've created in an attempt to figure out which pitcher did the most in terms of keeping his team in the game, relative to the average amount of run support he received.
I call it "Ownership," and it shows the percentage of a pitcher's win total we can estimate that each pitcher earned "on his own." In order to find this number, we've taken the run support that each starter received on the days he took the mound and subtracted the average number of earned runs he gave up per start. Then we've adjusted that number by a factor determined by the frequency of that pitcher's ability to produce a quality start.
That number gives us what I am calling a pitcher's "Win Help," or the numbers of wins that came as a result of the team's lineup and through nothing the pitcher himself could control. The "ownership" stat reflects the percentage of a pitcher's win total that would likely have remained if this extra help was taken away. In other words, the higher the ownership, the more often a pitcher "did enough to win."
Here is a list of the highest ownership numbers from 2012 among pitchers with at least 162 innings pitched. Most of the names should come as no shock, but there are a few surprises to be found:
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You'll note the impact of the pitiful Miami Marlins and their microscopic run support. Josh Johnson did all he could, and still managed to get only eight wins. If his run support remains the same, that's the most we can likely expect from him in the future. And Anibal Sanchez won just five of his 19 starts while with the Fish before getting a late-July reprieve in the form of a trade to Detroit. Had his run support in Miami been the same as it was in Detroit, he could have been expected to win four more games in 2012.
Given a pitcher's consistent ownership level, a boost in run support is certainly something that can change a pitcher's fortune immediately. Evidence of that can be found in Ryan Dempster's transformation from a .500 pitcher with the Chicago Cubs to one with a .700 win percentage once he went to Texas, even though his personal ERA skyrocketed after the change of scenery. Wins are not often hard to come by when your lineup provides 7.17 runs per start.
Looking forward, we can also try and project Dan Haren's value following his move to the Washington Nationals. Giving him the same ownership level as he had last, but using the ESPN 2013 projections for him in all other categories, how many wins should we expect him to have if the Nationals produce runs at the same rate as they did last season?
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The answer: 12 wins. That should not come as too much of a surprise, given that Haren was 12-13 in 2012 with an Angels lineup that scored more runs than Haren's new squad did last season. In other words, one shouldn't expect a big change in production from Haren without a whole lot of luck entering the equation. He'd need to get about 5.5 runs per game in order to reach 17 wins with his current projected underlying stats. While not impossible -- the Nationals did manage that for Gio Gonzalez last year -- one shouldn't depend on such good fortune.
Rounding out our brief overview of ownership, we'll provide you with a list of pitchers to be wary of for the upcoming season, especially if you believe that their lineups won't be able to provide them with the same amount of assistance this season. For example, trouble is definitely afoot for the New York Yankees staff if their aging lineup suffers any more setbacks. Plus, a new home for James Shields certainly might result in fewer victory celebrations in Kansas City than he had with Tampa Bay.
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No pitcher is going to be able to succeed if his team gets blanked on a regular basis, but those who take the most "ownership" of their outings are certainly going to make the most of times like these. They'll be the ones who learn to win again.
By AJ Mass | ESPN.com
When it comes to winning something, there are few cases out there in which the victory was a solo effort. Take musician Nate Mendel, for example. He has won 11 Grammy Awards since 1994, but odds are his trophy case would still be bare if not for the efforts of his Foo Fighters bandmates Dave Grohl and Taylor Hawkins. After all, bass guitarists such as Mendel rarely get noticed on their own.
The same need for a "little help from my friends" holds true for major league pitchers. Too many factors go into whether or not a starter ultimately ends up with a "W" at the end of his pitching day, not the least of which is the run support of his lineup (i.e. whether or not it can score enough to make that starter's efforts bear fruit). For instance, is it really Wandy Rodriguez's fault he lost four games in 2012 in which he pitched at least seven innings while allowing three or fewer runs? No more than Yu Darvish should be praised for winning four games in which he failed to finish seven innings while allowing three or more runs.
Which pitcher would you rather have on the mound for one start? By way of answering that question, the fact Rodriguez more often left his team in a position to win should hold far more weight than the 160-point edge Darvish had in terms of winning percentage … Which brings us to the new stat I've created in an attempt to figure out which pitcher did the most in terms of keeping his team in the game, relative to the average amount of run support he received.
I call it "Ownership," and it shows the percentage of a pitcher's win total we can estimate that each pitcher earned "on his own." In order to find this number, we've taken the run support that each starter received on the days he took the mound and subtracted the average number of earned runs he gave up per start. Then we've adjusted that number by a factor determined by the frequency of that pitcher's ability to produce a quality start.
That number gives us what I am calling a pitcher's "Win Help," or the numbers of wins that came as a result of the team's lineup and through nothing the pitcher himself could control. The "ownership" stat reflects the percentage of a pitcher's win total that would likely have remained if this extra help was taken away. In other words, the higher the ownership, the more often a pitcher "did enough to win."
Here is a list of the highest ownership numbers from 2012 among pitchers with at least 162 innings pitched. Most of the names should come as no shock, but there are a few surprises to be found:
| Pitcher | QS | ER | GS | RS/9 | Win Help | Wins | Ownership pct. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Johnson | 22 | 81 | 31 | 2.92 | 1.07 | 8 | 87 |
| Anibal Sanchez | 22 | 84 | 31 | 3.17 | 1.25 | 9 | 86 |
| Justin Masterson | 18 | 113 | 34 | 3.40 | 1.64 | 11 | 85 |
| R.A. Dickey | 27 | 71 | 33 | 4.89 | 3.13 | 20 | 84 |
| Johnny Cueto | 23 | 67 | 33 | 4.44 | 3.02 | 19 | 84 |
| Justin Verlander | 25 | 70 | 33 | 4.38 | 2.77 | 17 | 84 |
| Felix Hernandez | 21 | 79 | 33 | 3.65 | 2.13 | 13 | 84 |
| A.J. Burnett | 20 | 79 | 31 | 4.31 | 2.67 | 16 | 83 |
| Bronson Arroyo | 19 | 84 | 32 | 3.65 | 2.09 | 12 | 83 |
| Jeff Samardzija | 17 | 74 | 28 | 3.19 | 1.59 | 9 | 82 |
| Edinson Volquez | 16 | 84 | 32 | 3.40 | 2.09 | 11 | 81 |
| David Price | 25 | 60 | 31 | 5.37 | 3.81 | 20 | 81 |
| Paul Maholm | 19 | 77 | 31 | 4.00 | 2.48 | 13 | 81 |
| Clayton Richard | 18 | 97 | 33 | 4.28 | 2.68 | 14 | 81 |
| Clayton Kershaw | 25 | 64 | 33 | 4.15 | 2.68 | 14 | 81 |
| Jason Vargas | 22 | 93 | 33 | 4.64 | 2.76 | 14 | 80 |
| Matt Harrison | 20 | 78 | 32 | 5.10 | 3.58 | 18 | 80 |
| Ryan Vogelsong | 22 | 71 | 31 | 4.41 | 2.78 | 14 | 80 |
| Kyle Lohse | 24 | 67 | 33 | 4.69 | 3.21 | 16 | 80 |
| Ian Kennedy | 20 | 93 | 33 | 4.75 | 3.04 | 15 | 80 |
| Madison Bumgarner | 19 | 78 | 32 | 4.71 | 3.26 | 16 | 80 |
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You'll note the impact of the pitiful Miami Marlins and their microscopic run support. Josh Johnson did all he could, and still managed to get only eight wins. If his run support remains the same, that's the most we can likely expect from him in the future. And Anibal Sanchez won just five of his 19 starts while with the Fish before getting a late-July reprieve in the form of a trade to Detroit. Had his run support in Miami been the same as it was in Detroit, he could have been expected to win four more games in 2012.
Given a pitcher's consistent ownership level, a boost in run support is certainly something that can change a pitcher's fortune immediately. Evidence of that can be found in Ryan Dempster's transformation from a .500 pitcher with the Chicago Cubs to one with a .700 win percentage once he went to Texas, even though his personal ERA skyrocketed after the change of scenery. Wins are not often hard to come by when your lineup provides 7.17 runs per start.
Looking forward, we can also try and project Dan Haren's value following his move to the Washington Nationals. Giving him the same ownership level as he had last, but using the ESPN 2013 projections for him in all other categories, how many wins should we expect him to have if the Nationals produce runs at the same rate as they did last season?
| Pitcher | QS | ER | GS | RS/9 | Win Help | Wins | Ownership pct. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dan Haren | 21 | 87 | 33 | 4.51 | 2.83 | ??? | 77 |
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The answer: 12 wins. That should not come as too much of a surprise, given that Haren was 12-13 in 2012 with an Angels lineup that scored more runs than Haren's new squad did last season. In other words, one shouldn't expect a big change in production from Haren without a whole lot of luck entering the equation. He'd need to get about 5.5 runs per game in order to reach 17 wins with his current projected underlying stats. While not impossible -- the Nationals did manage that for Gio Gonzalez last year -- one shouldn't depend on such good fortune.
Rounding out our brief overview of ownership, we'll provide you with a list of pitchers to be wary of for the upcoming season, especially if you believe that their lineups won't be able to provide them with the same amount of assistance this season. For example, trouble is definitely afoot for the New York Yankees staff if their aging lineup suffers any more setbacks. Plus, a new home for James Shields certainly might result in fewer victory celebrations in Kansas City than he had with Tampa Bay.
| Pitcher | QS | ER | GS | RS/9 | Win Help | Wins | Ownership pct. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Sale | 19 | 65 | 29 | 5.48 | 4.01 | 17 | 76 |
| James Shields | 20 | 89 | 33 | 5.18 | 3.55 | 15 | 76 |
| Matt Cain | 21 | 68 | 32 | 5.21 | 3.82 | 16 | 76 |
| Phil Hughes | 17 | 90 | 32 | 5.41 | 3.92 | 16 | 76 |
| Tim Hudson | 15 | 72 | 28 | 5.38 | 4.00 | 16 | 75 |
| Gio Gonzalez | 22 | 64 | 32 | 6.68 | 5.31 | 21 | 75 |
| Jered Weaver | 21 | 59 | 30 | 6.54 | 5.16 | 20 | 74 |
| Zack Greinke | 20 | 82 | 34 | 5.34 | 3.92 | 15 | 74 |
| Max Scherzer | 20 | 78 | 32 | 5.71 | 4.19 | 16 | 74 |
| Wade Miley | 18 | 72 | 29 | 5.73 | 4.19 | 16 | 74 |
| CC Sabathia | 19 | 75 | 28 | 6.12 | 4.30 | 15 | 71 |
| Lance Lynn | 16 | 74 | 29 | 6.70 | 5.29 | 18 | 71 |
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No pitcher is going to be able to succeed if his team gets blanked on a regular basis, but those who take the most "ownership" of their outings are certainly going to make the most of times like these. They'll be the ones who learn to win again.
Bullpen Report: Dissecting the Dodgers
Eric Karabell
There's an odd sentiment in the baseball world, both real-life and fantasy, that Los Angeles Dodgers manager Don Mattingly is nuts to have already proclaimed relatively ordinary right-hander Brandon League as his closer, while strikeout machine Kenley Jansen, clearly his superior statistically, settles for the eighth-inning work. Well, those in the fantasy baseball world really desire the saves, so by that measure, one would think League would end up more in demand … but that's not likely to be the case.
In fact, check the ESPN Fantasy rankings and you will see Jansen has considerably better placement. I've participated in numerous drafts already, and Jansen is consistently being selected earlier, while League actually went undrafted once! I can't make any reasonable case that League is the better pitcher, but which one is more likely to get 30 saves? I think it's League, and that's why I'll be drafting him earlier.
<offer>First, to Mattingly's decision, it does, in fairness, have financial- and health-related overtones. League was recently awarded what many baseball observers would call a foolish three-year contract extension worth more than $22 million. Knowing turnover/health rates not only among closers but all relief pitchers, the most erratic and problematic of positions to forecast each season, that's a lot of money. Jansen doesn't earn that, despite a two-year run of historic strikeout rates for a reliever and 25 saves in 2012. Oh yeah, and Jansen had offseason surgery to correct a heart problem, too, which likely factors in.</offer>
Look around baseball and you'll see that the Dodgers aren't the only team likely to start April with something other than their top relief pitcher in the closer role, and that's just fine with me. You know what? The eighth inning matters quite a bit as well. Just ask Philadelphia Phillies fans, forced to see myriad leads evaporate in the late innings (but generally not the ninth) last year. Jonathan Papelbon should have had 10 more save opportunities, if not more. He was used ridiculously wrong by his manager, but the Phillies lacked competent setup men.
Jansen is an extremely competent setup man, perhaps the best in the game. And that's OK. I'm not necessarily applauding Mattingly and his decision, because I just want to know who the closer is for statistical and value purposes so I can share it with all of you, but it's not a terrible decision. In fact, Jansen's presence in the eighth inning makes me like League more. I also like Papelbon more with proven Mike Adams in the eighth-inning role for Philly this season. In theory, that means more leads to protect.
When the top 25 or so closers go off the draft board, no matter the format, fantasy owners need to decide what to focus on for the final few spots on a pitching staff or a bench as potential fill-ins. Jansen is a potential monster; while I tend to ignore saves until well after the 10th round or so, I acknowledge how much of a difference strikeout and run prevention kings like Craig Kimbrel, Aroldis Chapman and whomever fashions the next ridiculously unpredictable Fernando Rodney campaign can be. I focus on the saves. Most people think Jansen will pitch so much better than League that it will force Mattingly to switch their roles.
Well, I think League is getting 30 saves with a usable ERA and WHIP, which probably means he'll end up on several of my teams as a late-round pick. He's a competent relief pitcher, though hardly ideal for closing due to modest strikeout rates and the fact that left-handed hitters aren't too scared to face him, or so the statistics suggest. Colleague Dave Cameron discussed why Detroit Tigers rookie Bruce Rondon is doomed to fail, and he certainly might be right. League is certainly not an ideal closer.
But in a world where just about anyone can save 30 games if they're presented an opportunity -- in 2011 alone, League, Jordan Walden, Sergio Santos and Juan Carlos Oviedo (the former Leo Nunez) all accomplished this, and look at those guys now -- I don't see why League is such a bad risk in the 20th round. To me, he's certainly in a similar rankings neighborhood as the likes of Pittsburgh Pirates right-hander Jason Grilli, Miami Marlins right-hander Steve Cishek and a pair of Los Angeles Angels question marks in Ryan Madson and Ernesto Frieri. Grilli has five career saves. This is a safe closing option just because his manager has exalted him to the role? I don't think so.
Jansen is certainly worth selecting in 10-team standard formats as well, but again, pinpoint what your needs are. We often preach to draft skills, not roles, and that would unequivocally highlight Jansen, who has a career 2.22 ERA, 0.94 WHIP and 14.6 strikeouts-per-nine-innings rate, over League. I'm not looking solely for dominant arms late in drafts, but often for pure saves, even if they come with average supporting stats as well. I think it's certainly possible League, Carlos Marmol, Grilli, Cishek, Glen Perkins, Tom Wilhelmsen and perhaps Jonathan Broxton and Chris Perez lose closing roles to Jansen, Kyuji Fujikawa (Cubs), Mark Melancon (Pirates), Jon Rauch (Marlins), Jared Burton (Twins), Carter Capps (Mariners), Chapman (Reds) and Vinnie Pestano (Indians), respectively, so League does have company. Just take a look his way late if you need the saves, because I think he's going to get plenty of them, and be prepared for Jansen to have another dominant season, albeit one perhaps lacking the one category you really need from him.
Weekend wrap: Do not pay close attention to which pitchers get random save chances in spring training games. Entering Monday, those players with saves included Matt Buschmann (Rays), Robert Delaney and Adam Russell (Orioles). Rodney and Jim Johnson need not worry. … Then again, Red Sox personnel raved about young right-hander Rubby De La Rosa, who hit triple digits on the radar gun while saving Sunday's win and could end up in the bullpen. I want De La Rosa in an AL-only format for his upside, regardless of role. … New York Mets right-hander Bobby Parnell mowed down the Washington Nationals for a weekend save, throwing all seven of his pitches for strikes. With brittle Frank Francisco unlikely to be ready for April, and effectiveness always in question, Parnell really should be considered in the Nos. 25-32 relievers range, like Grilli, Cishek and others, as a standard-league, late-rounder. … The Angels' Madson boasts a top-20 relief pitcher ranking from ESPN Fantasy, but he's likely to start April on the disabled list as he returns from Tommy John surgery. I think Madson will save more games than Frieri in 2013, but as in the Jansen/League situation, you shouldn't ignore the other guy.
Eric Karabell
There's an odd sentiment in the baseball world, both real-life and fantasy, that Los Angeles Dodgers manager Don Mattingly is nuts to have already proclaimed relatively ordinary right-hander Brandon League as his closer, while strikeout machine Kenley Jansen, clearly his superior statistically, settles for the eighth-inning work. Well, those in the fantasy baseball world really desire the saves, so by that measure, one would think League would end up more in demand … but that's not likely to be the case.
In fact, check the ESPN Fantasy rankings and you will see Jansen has considerably better placement. I've participated in numerous drafts already, and Jansen is consistently being selected earlier, while League actually went undrafted once! I can't make any reasonable case that League is the better pitcher, but which one is more likely to get 30 saves? I think it's League, and that's why I'll be drafting him earlier.
<offer>First, to Mattingly's decision, it does, in fairness, have financial- and health-related overtones. League was recently awarded what many baseball observers would call a foolish three-year contract extension worth more than $22 million. Knowing turnover/health rates not only among closers but all relief pitchers, the most erratic and problematic of positions to forecast each season, that's a lot of money. Jansen doesn't earn that, despite a two-year run of historic strikeout rates for a reliever and 25 saves in 2012. Oh yeah, and Jansen had offseason surgery to correct a heart problem, too, which likely factors in.</offer>
Look around baseball and you'll see that the Dodgers aren't the only team likely to start April with something other than their top relief pitcher in the closer role, and that's just fine with me. You know what? The eighth inning matters quite a bit as well. Just ask Philadelphia Phillies fans, forced to see myriad leads evaporate in the late innings (but generally not the ninth) last year. Jonathan Papelbon should have had 10 more save opportunities, if not more. He was used ridiculously wrong by his manager, but the Phillies lacked competent setup men.
Jansen is an extremely competent setup man, perhaps the best in the game. And that's OK. I'm not necessarily applauding Mattingly and his decision, because I just want to know who the closer is for statistical and value purposes so I can share it with all of you, but it's not a terrible decision. In fact, Jansen's presence in the eighth inning makes me like League more. I also like Papelbon more with proven Mike Adams in the eighth-inning role for Philly this season. In theory, that means more leads to protect.
When the top 25 or so closers go off the draft board, no matter the format, fantasy owners need to decide what to focus on for the final few spots on a pitching staff or a bench as potential fill-ins. Jansen is a potential monster; while I tend to ignore saves until well after the 10th round or so, I acknowledge how much of a difference strikeout and run prevention kings like Craig Kimbrel, Aroldis Chapman and whomever fashions the next ridiculously unpredictable Fernando Rodney campaign can be. I focus on the saves. Most people think Jansen will pitch so much better than League that it will force Mattingly to switch their roles.
Well, I think League is getting 30 saves with a usable ERA and WHIP, which probably means he'll end up on several of my teams as a late-round pick. He's a competent relief pitcher, though hardly ideal for closing due to modest strikeout rates and the fact that left-handed hitters aren't too scared to face him, or so the statistics suggest. Colleague Dave Cameron discussed why Detroit Tigers rookie Bruce Rondon is doomed to fail, and he certainly might be right. League is certainly not an ideal closer.
But in a world where just about anyone can save 30 games if they're presented an opportunity -- in 2011 alone, League, Jordan Walden, Sergio Santos and Juan Carlos Oviedo (the former Leo Nunez) all accomplished this, and look at those guys now -- I don't see why League is such a bad risk in the 20th round. To me, he's certainly in a similar rankings neighborhood as the likes of Pittsburgh Pirates right-hander Jason Grilli, Miami Marlins right-hander Steve Cishek and a pair of Los Angeles Angels question marks in Ryan Madson and Ernesto Frieri. Grilli has five career saves. This is a safe closing option just because his manager has exalted him to the role? I don't think so.
Jansen is certainly worth selecting in 10-team standard formats as well, but again, pinpoint what your needs are. We often preach to draft skills, not roles, and that would unequivocally highlight Jansen, who has a career 2.22 ERA, 0.94 WHIP and 14.6 strikeouts-per-nine-innings rate, over League. I'm not looking solely for dominant arms late in drafts, but often for pure saves, even if they come with average supporting stats as well. I think it's certainly possible League, Carlos Marmol, Grilli, Cishek, Glen Perkins, Tom Wilhelmsen and perhaps Jonathan Broxton and Chris Perez lose closing roles to Jansen, Kyuji Fujikawa (Cubs), Mark Melancon (Pirates), Jon Rauch (Marlins), Jared Burton (Twins), Carter Capps (Mariners), Chapman (Reds) and Vinnie Pestano (Indians), respectively, so League does have company. Just take a look his way late if you need the saves, because I think he's going to get plenty of them, and be prepared for Jansen to have another dominant season, albeit one perhaps lacking the one category you really need from him.
Weekend wrap: Do not pay close attention to which pitchers get random save chances in spring training games. Entering Monday, those players with saves included Matt Buschmann (Rays), Robert Delaney and Adam Russell (Orioles). Rodney and Jim Johnson need not worry. … Then again, Red Sox personnel raved about young right-hander Rubby De La Rosa, who hit triple digits on the radar gun while saving Sunday's win and could end up in the bullpen. I want De La Rosa in an AL-only format for his upside, regardless of role. … New York Mets right-hander Bobby Parnell mowed down the Washington Nationals for a weekend save, throwing all seven of his pitches for strikes. With brittle Frank Francisco unlikely to be ready for April, and effectiveness always in question, Parnell really should be considered in the Nos. 25-32 relievers range, like Grilli, Cishek and others, as a standard-league, late-rounder. … The Angels' Madson boasts a top-20 relief pitcher ranking from ESPN Fantasy, but he's likely to start April on the disabled list as he returns from Tommy John surgery. I think Madson will save more games than Frieri in 2013, but as in the Jansen/League situation, you shouldn't ignore the other guy.
Consider the facts
By Matthew Berry | ESPN.com
Let's make a trade, me and you.
I'm gonna trade you "Player 1." Player 1 is an on-base machine, top 10 in baseball in walk percentage and the leader at his position in pitches per plate appearance. He improved his home run and runs totals, as well as his slugging percentage, for the third straight season, drove in 41 more runs than the previous season, was top 15 in home runs at his position, sixth-best in OPS and had a perfect stolen base success rate. You know opposing pitchers fear him; only one other player at his position drew more intentional walks than this guy, he greatly increased his line drive percentage last season and decreased his ground balls by a wide margin, a good sign for this slugger. I won't list every stadium, but get what this guy does at "pitchers' parks;" a career .367 hitter at AT&T Park; .333 at Citi Field; .320 at Petco; .300 at Safeco; .375 at Target Field.
And you'll trade me "Player 2," whom you should be thrilled to get rid of. This bum's batting average has gone down for four straight seasons, same as his stolen base totals. Despite more than 600 at-bats last season (the most of his career!), he still managed the fewest home runs and runs of his career and tied for a career low in hits. His on-base percentage and OPS have declined for five straight seasons, and both his slugging percentage and total walks drawn were at a 12-year career low! The only season in which he struck out more was during his rookie campaign. Considering the declining power and speed numbers, you hate the fact that only two players at his position hit more groundballs than he did, and when you realize he actually had a higher BABIP in 2012 than in 2011, you can't chalk up his struggles to bad luck, either.
Everything you just read is 100 percent true. So we have a deal, right? I'll send you Dodgers catcher A.J. Ellis, and I'll take Angels first baseman Albert Pujols off your hands.
No go, huh? Thought we might have had something there.
Yeah.
Welcome to the 2013 fantasy baseball season and my first column of the year. I wanted to start off with the "100 Facts" column, an annual one for me, because chances are you're just starting your prep and there's an important lesson to consider as you absorb all the information you'll be given in the next month.
It's a crock.
Oh, stats and scouting have lots of value, of course, when taken in context and more importantly, with a grain of salt.
I love stats. They are used to keep score in fantasy, and they are the dominant method of player analysis in fantasy baseball. So as someone who makes his living in fantasy sports and the use of stats overall, I think it's fantastic that sabermetrics and advanced stats have crept into the mainstream and become more prevalent by the year.
But it also can be a bit much. See last season's AL MVP debate as a prime example. Because truthfully, you can make a stat say anything you want, as I just showed in the "trade analysis" above. There's very little in this world that I am good at, but one thing I am fantastic at? Manipulating stats to say whatever I need them to.
And it's not just me who does it, it's everyone who does any kind of analysis. Political to pop culture to finance; you name it, if there are people trying to convince you of something, they have carefully framed their fact to do so.
They (and I) do it because we have to. There's only so much time or attention span someone has. You can't listen to a podcast or watch TV or read an article forever; you've got stuff to do, dammit. I've taken the liberty, of course, of assuming you have a life. But if not, it still wouldn't matter.
Because even if you had infinite time to read/listen/watch and I had infinite time to write/speak/wear makeup and you had some sort of fantasy Rain Man-like ability to memorize and understand every stat for every player in every situation, it's still impossible to get an accurate overview of a player that way.
Is he hiding an injury? Does he have an injury he isn't even aware of? Is he worried about his contract? Or about his girlfriend? Or about his wife finding out about his girlfriend? Is he a party guy, going out late every night? Does he hate the manager? Does the manager hate him? Is he holding the ball or bat differently? Maybe he's gripping the ball a tenth of an inch farther from the seam than he normally does and he's not aware of it. Or his foot is pointing slightly out of the batter's box and he usually points it toward the plate. Maybe he's an outfielder but his best friend on the team (and the guy who always calmed him down before big games) was the long reliever who was just released. You never know, and often, players themselves aren't that self-aware.
Every time I've gotten "inside info" from a player about himself (anyone remember my Jeff Francoeur love a number of years ago?) it's about 50/50 as to whether that info proves correct.
So what we all do is make a choice. After studying all the stats and scouting, reading news from beat reporters and talking to some insightful colleagues here at ESPN, I make a call. I then present that call to you, choosing a few, very carefully selected stats to make my case. If I like the guy, I choose good stats. If I don't like him, I choose bad stats.
Which is exactly what everyone else has done, as well, whether they admit it or not. Always. Every time. Never forget that. It's all opinion, cleverly disguised as "pure stats." And you should remember that as you prep throughout spring training. Read, absorb and mock draft as much as possible. And then choose which stats you believe and which you don't. Because whichever side of the fence you fall on about a player, I assure you, there's a stat for it.
In what follows, I have tried to shape your opinion about certain players with a selection of carefully framed stats, with a big help from The SWAN, Zach Jones, of ESPN Stats & Information. What you ultimately do with this information is up to you.
Just remember: Every stat you are about to read is 100 percent true. And not a one of them tells the whole story.
1. In each of the past four seasons, there has been just one player in major league baseball to have scored at least 100 runs and driven in at least 100 runs every year: Ryan Braun.
2. In that time, he's never hit less than .304.
3. Or had fewer than 563 at-bats.
4. In 2009, Felix Hernandez's average fastball velocity was 94 mph, 5.1 mph faster than his average changeup.
5. In 2012, Felix Hernandez's average fastball velocity was 92.1 mph, 3.3 mph faster than his changeup.
6. From 2009 to 2012, no pitcher in baseball has pitched more regular-season innings than Felix Hernandez, with 954.
7. Since 2010, R.A. Dickey is 4-0 against AL East opponents with a 1.71 ERA and a 0.74 WHIP in six total starts.
8. He has allowed those opponents to bat .137.
9. According to our Park Factors page, Rogers Centre, Dickey's new home park, was 15th in the home run factor last season.
10. Citi Field, Dickey's home park last year, was 12th.
11. In 2012, "Pitcher A" had 200 strikeouts, a 3.48 ERA and a 1.20 WHIP in 212 innings pitched.
12. "Pitcher B" had 194 strikeouts, a 3.37 ERA and a 1.10 WHIP in 219 innings pitched.
13. "Pitcher A," Zack Greinke, is going about nine rounds ahead of "Pitcher B," Jake Peavy, in early live draft results.
14. Greinke's career ERA against the NL West is 5.03, his worst mark against any division in the majors.
15. In 2011, his only full year in the National League, Greinke's ERA was 3.83.
16. His career ERA is 3.77.
17.Yovani Gallardo has 48 quality starts over the past two seasons.
18. Only Justin Verlander (53), Clayton Kershaw (50), Jered Weaver (49) and R.A. Dickey (49) have more in that time frame. That's it. That's the entire list.
19. Gallardo (204 strikeouts, 3.66 ERA, 1.30 WHIP in 204 innings pitched) is going five rounds later than Greinke.
20. In 30 career starts, Kris Medlen has averaged 8.0 K/9 IP and 1.8 BB/9 IP.
21. During Medlen's career, the only pitcher to make at least 20 starts with a K/9 rate of 8-plus and a BB/9 rate under two is … Cliff Lee.
22.Justin Upton's career batting average at Chase Field is .307, his highest at any park in which he has played at least 10 games.
23. But his second-best mark is .293 at Turner Field, where he will now be providing defense and run support for Braves pitchers rather than facing them.
24. In 2011, "Player C" batted .220 with a .281 OBP and .672 OPS.
25. In 2012, "Player D" batted .270 with a .340 OBP and .817 OPS.
26. Player C is what Mike Trout did at age 19. Player D is Bryce Harper at the same age.
27. Bryce Harper turned 20 on Oct. 16. Happy belated, Bryce.
28.Buster Posey batted a career-best .336 last season.
29. He also batted .368 on balls in play.
30. In three major league seasons, his previous best single-season BABIP was .315.
31. Posey has played more than 110 games once in his career.
32. Since his rookie season (2010), he has averaged 116 games per season.
33. Nine catchers hit 20-plus home runs last season.
34. That's the most in a single season in MLB history.
35.Salvador Perez was the only player in the majors last season with a batting average better than .300 but a BABIP less than .300.
36. Perez has 463 plate appearances in two seasons (his age-21 and age-22 seasons).
37. Since 1961, the only catchers with a higher OPS than Perez (.810) and as many plate appearances by age 22 are Brian McCann (.898), Johnny Bench (.889), and Joe Mauer (.811).
38. Salvador Perez is going, on average, 10th among catchers.
39. For the first half of last season, Andrew McCutchen had a .362 average with a 1.039 OPS.
40. From August to the end of the season, he had a .253 average with a .779 OPS.
41. In 2011, he hit .259 with an OPS of .820.
42. Entering 2012, Chase Headley had 2,114 plate appearances for his career and had hit a combined 36 HRs with a .392 slugging percentage.
43. In 2012, he hit 31 HRs and posted a .498 slugging percentage.
44. Chase Headley turned 20.5 percent of his fly balls into home runs last season.
45. Over the previous three seasons, his average was 5.9 percent.
46. The league average HR/FB rate last year was 11.2 percent.
47. That's the highest it's been since 2002.
48. In 2005, just 27 players in the majors stole at least 20 bases.
49. Last season, that number was 48.
50. In fact, 23 players stole at least 30 bases in '12, the most in a season since 1999.
51. The number of 30-plus base-stealers has gone up every year since 2008: 16, 17, 19, 20 and last year's 23.
52. In each of the past five seasons, Michael Bourn has stolen at least 40 bases.
53. No other player in the majors has more than three such seasons in that span.
54. And other than Bourn, only B.J. Upton has at least 30 steals each of the past five years.
55. Over the past two seasons, only Robinson Cano, Miguel Cabrera, Ryan Braun and Albert Pujols have more extra-base hits than … Alex Gordon.
56. In every season of his career, Trevor Cahill has improved his K/9 IP rate.
57. He has decreased his HR/9 rate each season, as well.
58. Brandon Morrow's BABIP against in the past three seasons, starting in 2010: .344, .301, .253.
59. In the past two seasons combined, in 669 at-bats, Allen Craig has 33 HRs and 132 RBIs.
60. Projected over a 162-game season, that's .309, 28 HRs, 111 RBIs, 92 runs, 70 extra-base hits.
61. You know who didn't have 70 extra-base hits last season? Andrew McCutchen.
62. Or Mike Trout.
63. 21, 22, 25, 32, 34. Those are Jay Bruce's HR totals for the past five seasons.
64. He has the most home runs in the majors among players currently 25 or younger.
65. The past three seasons, Adrian Beltre has hit for a higher batting average than David Wright in each season and has hit more home runs in two of three of them.
66. Over those three seasons, Beltre's slash line is .314/.353/.558. Wright's is .285/.365/.480.
67.David Wright is being drafted ahead of Adrian Beltre in pretty much every draft except ones in which I am faced with picking one of the two.
68. Every year since 1993, we've seen at least one player 35 years or older finish the season with an OPS of at least .900 in at least 300 plate appearances.
69. Last season, 36-year-old David Ortiz hit 23 home rune in 383 plate appearances (1.026 OPS).
70. Before last season, Matt Kemp had played at least 155 games in four straight seasons.
71. In the second half of last season, no first baseman had more home runs than … Ike Davis.
72. Last season, Carlos Gomez hit 19 home runs in 452 plate appearances.
73. Gomez had a higher home run rate (HR/AB) than Carlos Gonzalez, Michael Morse and Hanley Ramirez, among others.
74. He also stole 26 bases in the second half, second most in major league baseball.
75. Gomez didn't play three consecutive games with at least four at-bats until June 19.
76. Starting June 19, only one player had more steals than Gomez.
77. He had 57 runs scored, tied for 22nd in the majors and more than Adam Jones, Jose Reyes, Curtis Granderson, Ian Kinsler and Albert Pujols, among others, in that time frame.
78. He also had 17 home runs (more than Buster Posey, Nelson Cruz, Mark Trumbo and Matt Holliday).
79. He hit .258 in that time frame. Which sounds bad. But …
80. Only 38 outfielders hit better than .258 last season. We discussed this on the podcast. And I'll make it more of a focal point in future preseason stuff, but for now, consider this …
81. Last season, the average, er, batting average among major league players was .255.
82. Only 25 players in all of major league baseball hit .300.
83. My friend Paul Sporer points out that only three players managed at least 10 home runs, stole 30 bases and hit at least .288 in 2012: Ryan Braun, Mike Trout … and Norichika Aoki.
84. Not saying they are in the same class, but still … interesting, no? Aoki also had 81 runs and 50 RBIs. He's going in approximately the 22nd round.
85. Shout out to Tristan H. Cockroft for this; James Shields' career ERA when pitching in a dome is 3.34.
86. When pitching outdoors, it's 4.67.
87. Of players with at least a 10 percent walk rate, only two players in major league baseball had a higher walk rate than strikeout rate last season: Joe Mauer … and Prince Fielder.
88. Here are Aaron Hill's home run totals for the past four seasons, starting with his most recent season: 26, eight, 26, 36.
89. Even with the one outlier season, Dan Uggla and Robinson Cano are the only second basemen with more home runs over the past four seasons. Or RBIs.
90. Hill is also seventh in runs scored over the past four seasons among second basemen.
91. And tied for 10th in steals.
92. He's third in total at-bats over that time frame and hit .302 last year. He's also a career .272 hitter.
93. Which, again, is 17 points better than the league average last season.
94. Over the past three seasons, only two first basemen have had three straight seasons of at least 25 home runs, 75 RBIs and a .298 average: Miguel Cabrera and … Paul Konerko.
95. Cabrera no longer qualifies at first base.
96. In fact, only four first basemen have two such seasons in the past four: Prince Fielder, Joey Votto, Adrian Gonzalez and Albert Pujols.
97. Konerko is going, on average, in the 14th round.
98. Only one player has had at least 20 home runs and 20 stolen bases each of the past three seasons: Carlos Gonzalez.
99. There are only six players to have done it twice in the past three seasons: Ryan Braun, Andrew McCutchen, B.J. Upton, Hanley Ramirez, Chris Young and Alex Rios.
100. Remember to smile. It's fantasy baseball, for Trout's sake. It's fun.
By Matthew Berry | ESPN.com
Let's make a trade, me and you.
I'm gonna trade you "Player 1." Player 1 is an on-base machine, top 10 in baseball in walk percentage and the leader at his position in pitches per plate appearance. He improved his home run and runs totals, as well as his slugging percentage, for the third straight season, drove in 41 more runs than the previous season, was top 15 in home runs at his position, sixth-best in OPS and had a perfect stolen base success rate. You know opposing pitchers fear him; only one other player at his position drew more intentional walks than this guy, he greatly increased his line drive percentage last season and decreased his ground balls by a wide margin, a good sign for this slugger. I won't list every stadium, but get what this guy does at "pitchers' parks;" a career .367 hitter at AT&T Park; .333 at Citi Field; .320 at Petco; .300 at Safeco; .375 at Target Field.
And you'll trade me "Player 2," whom you should be thrilled to get rid of. This bum's batting average has gone down for four straight seasons, same as his stolen base totals. Despite more than 600 at-bats last season (the most of his career!), he still managed the fewest home runs and runs of his career and tied for a career low in hits. His on-base percentage and OPS have declined for five straight seasons, and both his slugging percentage and total walks drawn were at a 12-year career low! The only season in which he struck out more was during his rookie campaign. Considering the declining power and speed numbers, you hate the fact that only two players at his position hit more groundballs than he did, and when you realize he actually had a higher BABIP in 2012 than in 2011, you can't chalk up his struggles to bad luck, either.
Everything you just read is 100 percent true. So we have a deal, right? I'll send you Dodgers catcher A.J. Ellis, and I'll take Angels first baseman Albert Pujols off your hands.
No go, huh? Thought we might have had something there.
Yeah.
Welcome to the 2013 fantasy baseball season and my first column of the year. I wanted to start off with the "100 Facts" column, an annual one for me, because chances are you're just starting your prep and there's an important lesson to consider as you absorb all the information you'll be given in the next month.
It's a crock.
Oh, stats and scouting have lots of value, of course, when taken in context and more importantly, with a grain of salt.
I love stats. They are used to keep score in fantasy, and they are the dominant method of player analysis in fantasy baseball. So as someone who makes his living in fantasy sports and the use of stats overall, I think it's fantastic that sabermetrics and advanced stats have crept into the mainstream and become more prevalent by the year.
But it also can be a bit much. See last season's AL MVP debate as a prime example. Because truthfully, you can make a stat say anything you want, as I just showed in the "trade analysis" above. There's very little in this world that I am good at, but one thing I am fantastic at? Manipulating stats to say whatever I need them to.
And it's not just me who does it, it's everyone who does any kind of analysis. Political to pop culture to finance; you name it, if there are people trying to convince you of something, they have carefully framed their fact to do so.
They (and I) do it because we have to. There's only so much time or attention span someone has. You can't listen to a podcast or watch TV or read an article forever; you've got stuff to do, dammit. I've taken the liberty, of course, of assuming you have a life. But if not, it still wouldn't matter.
Because even if you had infinite time to read/listen/watch and I had infinite time to write/speak/wear makeup and you had some sort of fantasy Rain Man-like ability to memorize and understand every stat for every player in every situation, it's still impossible to get an accurate overview of a player that way.
Is he hiding an injury? Does he have an injury he isn't even aware of? Is he worried about his contract? Or about his girlfriend? Or about his wife finding out about his girlfriend? Is he a party guy, going out late every night? Does he hate the manager? Does the manager hate him? Is he holding the ball or bat differently? Maybe he's gripping the ball a tenth of an inch farther from the seam than he normally does and he's not aware of it. Or his foot is pointing slightly out of the batter's box and he usually points it toward the plate. Maybe he's an outfielder but his best friend on the team (and the guy who always calmed him down before big games) was the long reliever who was just released. You never know, and often, players themselves aren't that self-aware.
Every time I've gotten "inside info" from a player about himself (anyone remember my Jeff Francoeur love a number of years ago?) it's about 50/50 as to whether that info proves correct.
So what we all do is make a choice. After studying all the stats and scouting, reading news from beat reporters and talking to some insightful colleagues here at ESPN, I make a call. I then present that call to you, choosing a few, very carefully selected stats to make my case. If I like the guy, I choose good stats. If I don't like him, I choose bad stats.
Which is exactly what everyone else has done, as well, whether they admit it or not. Always. Every time. Never forget that. It's all opinion, cleverly disguised as "pure stats." And you should remember that as you prep throughout spring training. Read, absorb and mock draft as much as possible. And then choose which stats you believe and which you don't. Because whichever side of the fence you fall on about a player, I assure you, there's a stat for it.
In what follows, I have tried to shape your opinion about certain players with a selection of carefully framed stats, with a big help from The SWAN, Zach Jones, of ESPN Stats & Information. What you ultimately do with this information is up to you.
Just remember: Every stat you are about to read is 100 percent true. And not a one of them tells the whole story.
1. In each of the past four seasons, there has been just one player in major league baseball to have scored at least 100 runs and driven in at least 100 runs every year: Ryan Braun.
2. In that time, he's never hit less than .304.
3. Or had fewer than 563 at-bats.
4. In 2009, Felix Hernandez's average fastball velocity was 94 mph, 5.1 mph faster than his average changeup.
5. In 2012, Felix Hernandez's average fastball velocity was 92.1 mph, 3.3 mph faster than his changeup.
6. From 2009 to 2012, no pitcher in baseball has pitched more regular-season innings than Felix Hernandez, with 954.
7. Since 2010, R.A. Dickey is 4-0 against AL East opponents with a 1.71 ERA and a 0.74 WHIP in six total starts.
8. He has allowed those opponents to bat .137.
9. According to our Park Factors page, Rogers Centre, Dickey's new home park, was 15th in the home run factor last season.
10. Citi Field, Dickey's home park last year, was 12th.
11. In 2012, "Pitcher A" had 200 strikeouts, a 3.48 ERA and a 1.20 WHIP in 212 innings pitched.
12. "Pitcher B" had 194 strikeouts, a 3.37 ERA and a 1.10 WHIP in 219 innings pitched.
13. "Pitcher A," Zack Greinke, is going about nine rounds ahead of "Pitcher B," Jake Peavy, in early live draft results.
14. Greinke's career ERA against the NL West is 5.03, his worst mark against any division in the majors.
15. In 2011, his only full year in the National League, Greinke's ERA was 3.83.
16. His career ERA is 3.77.
17.Yovani Gallardo has 48 quality starts over the past two seasons.
18. Only Justin Verlander (53), Clayton Kershaw (50), Jered Weaver (49) and R.A. Dickey (49) have more in that time frame. That's it. That's the entire list.
19. Gallardo (204 strikeouts, 3.66 ERA, 1.30 WHIP in 204 innings pitched) is going five rounds later than Greinke.
20. In 30 career starts, Kris Medlen has averaged 8.0 K/9 IP and 1.8 BB/9 IP.
21. During Medlen's career, the only pitcher to make at least 20 starts with a K/9 rate of 8-plus and a BB/9 rate under two is … Cliff Lee.
22.Justin Upton's career batting average at Chase Field is .307, his highest at any park in which he has played at least 10 games.
23. But his second-best mark is .293 at Turner Field, where he will now be providing defense and run support for Braves pitchers rather than facing them.
24. In 2011, "Player C" batted .220 with a .281 OBP and .672 OPS.
25. In 2012, "Player D" batted .270 with a .340 OBP and .817 OPS.
26. Player C is what Mike Trout did at age 19. Player D is Bryce Harper at the same age.
27. Bryce Harper turned 20 on Oct. 16. Happy belated, Bryce.
28.Buster Posey batted a career-best .336 last season.
29. He also batted .368 on balls in play.
30. In three major league seasons, his previous best single-season BABIP was .315.
31. Posey has played more than 110 games once in his career.
32. Since his rookie season (2010), he has averaged 116 games per season.
33. Nine catchers hit 20-plus home runs last season.
34. That's the most in a single season in MLB history.
35.Salvador Perez was the only player in the majors last season with a batting average better than .300 but a BABIP less than .300.
36. Perez has 463 plate appearances in two seasons (his age-21 and age-22 seasons).
37. Since 1961, the only catchers with a higher OPS than Perez (.810) and as many plate appearances by age 22 are Brian McCann (.898), Johnny Bench (.889), and Joe Mauer (.811).
38. Salvador Perez is going, on average, 10th among catchers.
39. For the first half of last season, Andrew McCutchen had a .362 average with a 1.039 OPS.
40. From August to the end of the season, he had a .253 average with a .779 OPS.
41. In 2011, he hit .259 with an OPS of .820.
42. Entering 2012, Chase Headley had 2,114 plate appearances for his career and had hit a combined 36 HRs with a .392 slugging percentage.
43. In 2012, he hit 31 HRs and posted a .498 slugging percentage.
44. Chase Headley turned 20.5 percent of his fly balls into home runs last season.
45. Over the previous three seasons, his average was 5.9 percent.
46. The league average HR/FB rate last year was 11.2 percent.
47. That's the highest it's been since 2002.
48. In 2005, just 27 players in the majors stole at least 20 bases.
49. Last season, that number was 48.
50. In fact, 23 players stole at least 30 bases in '12, the most in a season since 1999.
51. The number of 30-plus base-stealers has gone up every year since 2008: 16, 17, 19, 20 and last year's 23.
52. In each of the past five seasons, Michael Bourn has stolen at least 40 bases.
53. No other player in the majors has more than three such seasons in that span.
54. And other than Bourn, only B.J. Upton has at least 30 steals each of the past five years.
55. Over the past two seasons, only Robinson Cano, Miguel Cabrera, Ryan Braun and Albert Pujols have more extra-base hits than … Alex Gordon.
56. In every season of his career, Trevor Cahill has improved his K/9 IP rate.
57. He has decreased his HR/9 rate each season, as well.
58. Brandon Morrow's BABIP against in the past three seasons, starting in 2010: .344, .301, .253.
59. In the past two seasons combined, in 669 at-bats, Allen Craig has 33 HRs and 132 RBIs.
60. Projected over a 162-game season, that's .309, 28 HRs, 111 RBIs, 92 runs, 70 extra-base hits.
61. You know who didn't have 70 extra-base hits last season? Andrew McCutchen.
62. Or Mike Trout.
63. 21, 22, 25, 32, 34. Those are Jay Bruce's HR totals for the past five seasons.
64. He has the most home runs in the majors among players currently 25 or younger.
65. The past three seasons, Adrian Beltre has hit for a higher batting average than David Wright in each season and has hit more home runs in two of three of them.
66. Over those three seasons, Beltre's slash line is .314/.353/.558. Wright's is .285/.365/.480.
67.David Wright is being drafted ahead of Adrian Beltre in pretty much every draft except ones in which I am faced with picking one of the two.
68. Every year since 1993, we've seen at least one player 35 years or older finish the season with an OPS of at least .900 in at least 300 plate appearances.
69. Last season, 36-year-old David Ortiz hit 23 home rune in 383 plate appearances (1.026 OPS).
70. Before last season, Matt Kemp had played at least 155 games in four straight seasons.
71. In the second half of last season, no first baseman had more home runs than … Ike Davis.
72. Last season, Carlos Gomez hit 19 home runs in 452 plate appearances.
73. Gomez had a higher home run rate (HR/AB) than Carlos Gonzalez, Michael Morse and Hanley Ramirez, among others.
74. He also stole 26 bases in the second half, second most in major league baseball.
75. Gomez didn't play three consecutive games with at least four at-bats until June 19.
76. Starting June 19, only one player had more steals than Gomez.
77. He had 57 runs scored, tied for 22nd in the majors and more than Adam Jones, Jose Reyes, Curtis Granderson, Ian Kinsler and Albert Pujols, among others, in that time frame.
78. He also had 17 home runs (more than Buster Posey, Nelson Cruz, Mark Trumbo and Matt Holliday).
79. He hit .258 in that time frame. Which sounds bad. But …
80. Only 38 outfielders hit better than .258 last season. We discussed this on the podcast. And I'll make it more of a focal point in future preseason stuff, but for now, consider this …
81. Last season, the average, er, batting average among major league players was .255.
82. Only 25 players in all of major league baseball hit .300.
83. My friend Paul Sporer points out that only three players managed at least 10 home runs, stole 30 bases and hit at least .288 in 2012: Ryan Braun, Mike Trout … and Norichika Aoki.
84. Not saying they are in the same class, but still … interesting, no? Aoki also had 81 runs and 50 RBIs. He's going in approximately the 22nd round.
85. Shout out to Tristan H. Cockroft for this; James Shields' career ERA when pitching in a dome is 3.34.
86. When pitching outdoors, it's 4.67.
87. Of players with at least a 10 percent walk rate, only two players in major league baseball had a higher walk rate than strikeout rate last season: Joe Mauer … and Prince Fielder.
88. Here are Aaron Hill's home run totals for the past four seasons, starting with his most recent season: 26, eight, 26, 36.
89. Even with the one outlier season, Dan Uggla and Robinson Cano are the only second basemen with more home runs over the past four seasons. Or RBIs.
90. Hill is also seventh in runs scored over the past four seasons among second basemen.
91. And tied for 10th in steals.
92. He's third in total at-bats over that time frame and hit .302 last year. He's also a career .272 hitter.
93. Which, again, is 17 points better than the league average last season.
94. Over the past three seasons, only two first basemen have had three straight seasons of at least 25 home runs, 75 RBIs and a .298 average: Miguel Cabrera and … Paul Konerko.
95. Cabrera no longer qualifies at first base.
96. In fact, only four first basemen have two such seasons in the past four: Prince Fielder, Joey Votto, Adrian Gonzalez and Albert Pujols.
97. Konerko is going, on average, in the 14th round.
98. Only one player has had at least 20 home runs and 20 stolen bases each of the past three seasons: Carlos Gonzalez.
99. There are only six players to have done it twice in the past three seasons: Ryan Braun, Andrew McCutchen, B.J. Upton, Hanley Ramirez, Chris Young and Alex Rios.
100. Remember to smile. It's fantasy baseball, for Trout's sake. It's fun.
Why Yu Darvish will be a top-5 starter
By Mike Sheets | Special to ESPN.com
When Yu Darvish signed with the Texas Rangers last offseason, the hype among fantasy owners was substantial. And why not? Darvish was arguably the most highly regarded Japanese pitcher ever to come to the major leagues. In five seasons in the Japan Pacific League, he never posted an ERA above 1.88, and in 2011 he posted a 1.44 ERA and 0.82 WHIP with 276 strikeouts in 232 innings. On top of that, he was only 25 years old, so it was reasonable to think his best days were still ahead of him. The potential was exciting to think about.
Darvish finished the 2012 season as the No. 30 starting pitcher on the ESPN Player Rater. Considering he was 34th in our preseason rankings, it's hard to say he fell short of expectations. He won 16 games, posted a 3.90 ERA and 1.28 WHIP, and struck out 221 batters in 191 1/3 innings. It was a good year. But Darvish wasn't the fantasy ace many envisioned.
As it turns out, the expectation that Darvish would be a true fantasy ace wasn't unrealistic; it was just a year early. The No. 1 thing holding Darvish back last season was an inability to consistently throw strikes. His BB/9 rate stood at 4.2, which was the sixth-worst mark in baseball among the 88 starting pitchers who qualified. He gets enough strikeouts to help offset the high walk rate -- his 10.4 K/9 rate ranked second only to Max Scherzer (11.1 K/9) -- but it's a problem, and one that will keep him from ace status if it isn't fixed.
But comparing Darvish's first- and second-half splits offers a glimmer of hope. While his BB/9 in the first half was 4.7, he knocked it down to 3.7 after the All-Star break. That's encouraging. However, we really see a difference when we look at Darvish's transformation in the last quarter of the season. In his final eight starts, which included the one-game playoff versus Baltimore, he sported a 2.20 ERA and 0.77 WHIP with 66 K's in 57 1/3 frames. The real kicker, though, is that he walked no more than two batters in any of those eight outings, posting a walk rate of 1.6. Simply put, Darvish was a different pitcher in those eight starts; he was, well, elite.
Naturally, there are problems with taking an eight-game stretch at the end of a season and drawing too many conclusions. Eight starts might be roughly one-fourth of a season for a starting pitcher, but it's still a small sample size. And it's not enough to say that the control Darvish exhibited in Japan finally carried over. Yes, he sported a 1.4 BB/9 in Japan in 2011, but Japanese hitters aren't encouraged to take pitches and draw walks like big league hitters are. Of the 19 pitchers who threw at least 150 innings in the Pacific League last year, only three held a BB/9 rate over 2.7. Finally, as much as we like to sometimes pretend that a late-season breakout portends future success, that's often not the case.
In other words, expecting Darvish's newfound control to carry over into 2013 requires a leap of faith. That is, however, a leap you should take
First, now that Darvish has been in the big leagues for a year, the temptation is to treat him like any other starting pitcher. Don't. Remember, the differences between pitching in the Japan Pacific League and the major leagues are drastic. In addition to the vastly superior competition in the majors (which includes hitters who are encouraged to take pitches), Darvish had to deal with an uncommon amount of media attention, the simmering Texas heat and pitching every five days instead of every six, which is what he was accustomed to in Japan.
He also had to adjust to a strike zone that is widely considered to be smaller than the strike zone in the Pacific League, and a baseball that's slightly bigger than the one he threw in Japan. It's not a stretch to think it took Darvish much of the 2012 season to get fully acclimated to life in the big leagues, which leads me to believe that his late-season improvement, particularly in the control department, was real and at least somewhat sustainable.
While expecting Darvish to substantially improve his walk rate this season may seem like a stretch, just look at the career arcs of some of the top pitchers in fantasy. Clayton Kershaw posted a 4.4 BB/9 in 2008, his first season, and a 4.8 BB/9 in his second; last year his walk rate was 2.5. David Price held a 3.8 BB/9 in '09, his rookie season with the Rays; he posted a 2.5 walk rate last year. Matt Cain posted a 4.1 BB/9 in '06, his first full season with the Giants; last year it was 2.1. Granted, it took these guys more than a year to turn things around, but Darvish is already 26 and has been pitching professionally for six years. There's no reason to think he can't make that leap right now.
Then there's the catcher factor. According to a recent story on ESPNDallas.com, Darvish said catcher Geovany Soto was "a really important factor" in his second-half success. The numbers bear that out. During Darvish's eight-start stretch of dominance last year, Soto was behind the plate for all eight starts. During the course of the entire season, the Japanese import had a 2.35 ERA and held hitters to a .176 batting average when Soto was catching. With other catchers behind the plate, Darvish sported a 4.57 ERA and a .238 batting average-against. Those are drastic splits. This season, manager Ron Washington has said that Soto will be Darvish's personal catcher. That's obviously good news for fantasy owners and is yet another reason to be bullish on the right-hander this year.
It's also important to note that, even before we take Darvish's expected improvement into account, we already know his ceiling is pretty high. We know he's going to continue striking out hitters with regularity. In fact, according to Fangraphs.com, opposing hitters made contact on just 72.8 percent of Darvish's pitches they swung at, the lowest percentage in baseball. We also can bet he'll receive plenty of run support in Texas. After all, the Rangers scored the most runs in baseball last year, and they'll again have one of the game's most dangerous lineups, even without Josh Hamilton. And let's not forget about the Houston Astros joining the American League West this season. The Astros lost 107 games last year -- the most in baseball -- and could lose even more this season in the AL. The fact Darvish should get four or five starts against them this year is significant.
Admittedly, it's hard to poke holes in any of ESPN's preseason top-five starting pitchers -- Justin Verlander, Kershaw, Felix Hernandez, Stephen Strasburg and Price -- but consider that three hurlers who ranked outside the preseason top-10 last year (Price, Cain and R.A. Dickey) finished 2012 in the top five. That's what I'm counting on Darvish doing this year. You don't have to draft him in the top five. You can, however, draft him with reasonable confidence that he'll finish the season there.
By Mike Sheets | Special to ESPN.com
When Yu Darvish signed with the Texas Rangers last offseason, the hype among fantasy owners was substantial. And why not? Darvish was arguably the most highly regarded Japanese pitcher ever to come to the major leagues. In five seasons in the Japan Pacific League, he never posted an ERA above 1.88, and in 2011 he posted a 1.44 ERA and 0.82 WHIP with 276 strikeouts in 232 innings. On top of that, he was only 25 years old, so it was reasonable to think his best days were still ahead of him. The potential was exciting to think about.
Darvish finished the 2012 season as the No. 30 starting pitcher on the ESPN Player Rater. Considering he was 34th in our preseason rankings, it's hard to say he fell short of expectations. He won 16 games, posted a 3.90 ERA and 1.28 WHIP, and struck out 221 batters in 191 1/3 innings. It was a good year. But Darvish wasn't the fantasy ace many envisioned.
As it turns out, the expectation that Darvish would be a true fantasy ace wasn't unrealistic; it was just a year early. The No. 1 thing holding Darvish back last season was an inability to consistently throw strikes. His BB/9 rate stood at 4.2, which was the sixth-worst mark in baseball among the 88 starting pitchers who qualified. He gets enough strikeouts to help offset the high walk rate -- his 10.4 K/9 rate ranked second only to Max Scherzer (11.1 K/9) -- but it's a problem, and one that will keep him from ace status if it isn't fixed.
But comparing Darvish's first- and second-half splits offers a glimmer of hope. While his BB/9 in the first half was 4.7, he knocked it down to 3.7 after the All-Star break. That's encouraging. However, we really see a difference when we look at Darvish's transformation in the last quarter of the season. In his final eight starts, which included the one-game playoff versus Baltimore, he sported a 2.20 ERA and 0.77 WHIP with 66 K's in 57 1/3 frames. The real kicker, though, is that he walked no more than two batters in any of those eight outings, posting a walk rate of 1.6. Simply put, Darvish was a different pitcher in those eight starts; he was, well, elite.
Naturally, there are problems with taking an eight-game stretch at the end of a season and drawing too many conclusions. Eight starts might be roughly one-fourth of a season for a starting pitcher, but it's still a small sample size. And it's not enough to say that the control Darvish exhibited in Japan finally carried over. Yes, he sported a 1.4 BB/9 in Japan in 2011, but Japanese hitters aren't encouraged to take pitches and draw walks like big league hitters are. Of the 19 pitchers who threw at least 150 innings in the Pacific League last year, only three held a BB/9 rate over 2.7. Finally, as much as we like to sometimes pretend that a late-season breakout portends future success, that's often not the case.
In other words, expecting Darvish's newfound control to carry over into 2013 requires a leap of faith. That is, however, a leap you should take
First, now that Darvish has been in the big leagues for a year, the temptation is to treat him like any other starting pitcher. Don't. Remember, the differences between pitching in the Japan Pacific League and the major leagues are drastic. In addition to the vastly superior competition in the majors (which includes hitters who are encouraged to take pitches), Darvish had to deal with an uncommon amount of media attention, the simmering Texas heat and pitching every five days instead of every six, which is what he was accustomed to in Japan.
He also had to adjust to a strike zone that is widely considered to be smaller than the strike zone in the Pacific League, and a baseball that's slightly bigger than the one he threw in Japan. It's not a stretch to think it took Darvish much of the 2012 season to get fully acclimated to life in the big leagues, which leads me to believe that his late-season improvement, particularly in the control department, was real and at least somewhat sustainable.
While expecting Darvish to substantially improve his walk rate this season may seem like a stretch, just look at the career arcs of some of the top pitchers in fantasy. Clayton Kershaw posted a 4.4 BB/9 in 2008, his first season, and a 4.8 BB/9 in his second; last year his walk rate was 2.5. David Price held a 3.8 BB/9 in '09, his rookie season with the Rays; he posted a 2.5 walk rate last year. Matt Cain posted a 4.1 BB/9 in '06, his first full season with the Giants; last year it was 2.1. Granted, it took these guys more than a year to turn things around, but Darvish is already 26 and has been pitching professionally for six years. There's no reason to think he can't make that leap right now.
Then there's the catcher factor. According to a recent story on ESPNDallas.com, Darvish said catcher Geovany Soto was "a really important factor" in his second-half success. The numbers bear that out. During Darvish's eight-start stretch of dominance last year, Soto was behind the plate for all eight starts. During the course of the entire season, the Japanese import had a 2.35 ERA and held hitters to a .176 batting average when Soto was catching. With other catchers behind the plate, Darvish sported a 4.57 ERA and a .238 batting average-against. Those are drastic splits. This season, manager Ron Washington has said that Soto will be Darvish's personal catcher. That's obviously good news for fantasy owners and is yet another reason to be bullish on the right-hander this year.
It's also important to note that, even before we take Darvish's expected improvement into account, we already know his ceiling is pretty high. We know he's going to continue striking out hitters with regularity. In fact, according to Fangraphs.com, opposing hitters made contact on just 72.8 percent of Darvish's pitches they swung at, the lowest percentage in baseball. We also can bet he'll receive plenty of run support in Texas. After all, the Rangers scored the most runs in baseball last year, and they'll again have one of the game's most dangerous lineups, even without Josh Hamilton. And let's not forget about the Houston Astros joining the American League West this season. The Astros lost 107 games last year -- the most in baseball -- and could lose even more this season in the AL. The fact Darvish should get four or five starts against them this year is significant.
Admittedly, it's hard to poke holes in any of ESPN's preseason top-five starting pitchers -- Justin Verlander, Kershaw, Felix Hernandez, Stephen Strasburg and Price -- but consider that three hurlers who ranked outside the preseason top-10 last year (Price, Cain and R.A. Dickey) finished 2012 in the top five. That's what I'm counting on Darvish doing this year. You don't have to draft him in the top five. You can, however, draft him with reasonable confidence that he'll finish the season there.
Riskiest early-round draft picks
Eric Karabell
There are several risky picks in the early rounds of 2013 fantasy baseball drafts, but when it comes to Colorado Rockies shortstop Troy Tulowitzki, Tampa Bay Rays third baseman Evan Longoria and Toronto Blue Jays outfielder Jose Bautista, the true risky part is the health. The performance, I believe, is not. I mean, none of these guys will pass off as Cal Ripken Jr. in terms of durability, but each of these players has convinced fantasy owners they are consistent statistical providers who can be relied upon as fantasy stalwarts.
Then there's Boston Red Sox outfielder Jacoby Ellsbury. While he's not a top-10 overall pick -- not like last year! -- he's still highly regarded enough to be a top-50 option, and thus someone I'd call a rather substantial risk in the early rounds. Not only can we hardly be assured he'll play most of the games -- he missed most of 2010 and half of last season -- but he delivered subpar stats in the 2012 games he did participate in. Oh sure, his 2011 season was extraordinary and surprising, certainly in terms of power output and perhaps for the 158 games played as well. Bottom line: If you want risk and even the proverbial risk-versus-reward option, this is it.
<offer>Each season I discuss the early-round draft gambles and surely Tulowitzki, Longoria and Bautista fit the mold, as do, to various degrees, Matt Kemp, Buster Posey, Justin Upton and Hanley Ramirez, I suppose. Heck, Mike Trout as a top-three overall pick is, in essence, a bit perilous, because he's all of 21 years old, and with the weight he added this offseason, he now doubles the size of Los Angeles Dodgers shortstop Dee Gordon (OK, maybe not quite). Point is, there are hitter risks out there in the first five or six rounds, and to a lesser degree the pitchers, starting with Stephen Strasburg and a bit later in drafts with Roy Halladay, Chris Sale, CC Sabathia and others, and rarely is there a sure thing. However, in most cases, we cannot predict injury. With most top players we can, for the most part, predict statistical impact if they're healthy.
It's tough to remember someone as polarizing as Ellsbury in recent seasons, and not in a Josh Hamilton type of way in that either you love him or you don't. I like Ellsbury to bounce back, at least enough to rank him 44th overall. I enjoyed his monster 2011 campaign on several teams, confident that the 2010 injury he suffered, when he ran into then-teammate Adrian Beltre, was flukish. I seek out undervalued players from odd injuries with a track record of success. I thought Ellsbury would steal his 60-plus bases, score many runs and act like Michael Bourn. Nobody expected him to act like Milwaukee Brewers outfielder Ryan Braun, who boasts these amazing numbers annually. Ellsbury still has hit double-digit home runs in only one season in his career.
Now our minds are a raging torrent, flooded with rivulets of thought cascading into a waterfall of creative alternatives about what Ellsbury might do, and all the possibilities are reasonable, I suppose. He could steal a ton of bases. He could hit a ton of home runs. He could play in 40 games. He could play in 140 games and perform like Alejandro De Aza, which has value, but not in the fifth round. For the risk of finding out, Ellsbury is currently being selected No. 48 in ESPN average live drafts. That, my pals, is risky, because it's not solely about his health. I rank Tulo, Longo and Joey Bats among my top 15 overall players because they have created a baseline of offensive prowess. I believe they will not underachieve when healthy, and frankly I don't see why they can't be healthy. Tulo went .300-30-100 as recently as 2011. Longoria hit 17 home runs and knocked in 55 in less than half a season in 2012. Bautista is one of the two players ESPN Fantasy projects to swat 40-plus home runs.
With Ellsbury, not only do we not know what we're getting health-wise, we also don't know what we'd get if healthy. For the record, ESPN Fantasy projects 17 home runs, 27 stolen bases and a .294 batting average, so it assumes at least 130 games. Can it happen? It's a risk, but that could be the reward.
Here are some other risks in the Nos. 50-100 range of the top 100 in ESPN ADP, because while they're not first-rounders, these picks are valuable, too.
Aroldis Chapman, RP, Cincinnati Reds: It's a two-prong risk here for an eighth-rounder (in ESPN ADP). One, if you draft him as a starter and he closes, which I suspect will happen, will you be short a starter? Two, can he stay healthy in either role? I'm hoping for the best, but watch him throw and be prepared. I rank him No. 100, not 77th (his ADP).
Mark Trumbo, OF, Los Angeles Angels: If his first two weeks of the season look anything like his final eight weeks of 2012, when he hit .208 with a .552 OPS and only five home runs, he'll be instant free-agent fodder in April. Seems foolish to select him as early as a ninth-rounder; he's not close to my top 100.
Any closer not named Craig Kimbrel: Sorry, but there are just way too many valuable hitters and, for that matter, potential No. 2 fantasy starting pitchers, to grab the mere mortal closers in the top 100.
Matt Wieters, C, Baltimore Orioles: Sorry, but for those in standard, 10-team formats with one catcher, there are other catchers with power who didn't hit .249 last season going much later, such Miguel Montero. And it's not as though Wieters has Trumbo-like power, either.
Tim Lincecum, SP, San Francisco Giants: OK, cheating a bit since he's going No. 104, but ESPN Fantasy ranks him 15 spots later. Remember, Trumbo can hurt you only in batting average. Lincecum can hurt you in ERA and WHIP.
</offer>
Eric Karabell
There are several risky picks in the early rounds of 2013 fantasy baseball drafts, but when it comes to Colorado Rockies shortstop Troy Tulowitzki, Tampa Bay Rays third baseman Evan Longoria and Toronto Blue Jays outfielder Jose Bautista, the true risky part is the health. The performance, I believe, is not. I mean, none of these guys will pass off as Cal Ripken Jr. in terms of durability, but each of these players has convinced fantasy owners they are consistent statistical providers who can be relied upon as fantasy stalwarts.
Then there's Boston Red Sox outfielder Jacoby Ellsbury. While he's not a top-10 overall pick -- not like last year! -- he's still highly regarded enough to be a top-50 option, and thus someone I'd call a rather substantial risk in the early rounds. Not only can we hardly be assured he'll play most of the games -- he missed most of 2010 and half of last season -- but he delivered subpar stats in the 2012 games he did participate in. Oh sure, his 2011 season was extraordinary and surprising, certainly in terms of power output and perhaps for the 158 games played as well. Bottom line: If you want risk and even the proverbial risk-versus-reward option, this is it.
<offer>Each season I discuss the early-round draft gambles and surely Tulowitzki, Longoria and Bautista fit the mold, as do, to various degrees, Matt Kemp, Buster Posey, Justin Upton and Hanley Ramirez, I suppose. Heck, Mike Trout as a top-three overall pick is, in essence, a bit perilous, because he's all of 21 years old, and with the weight he added this offseason, he now doubles the size of Los Angeles Dodgers shortstop Dee Gordon (OK, maybe not quite). Point is, there are hitter risks out there in the first five or six rounds, and to a lesser degree the pitchers, starting with Stephen Strasburg and a bit later in drafts with Roy Halladay, Chris Sale, CC Sabathia and others, and rarely is there a sure thing. However, in most cases, we cannot predict injury. With most top players we can, for the most part, predict statistical impact if they're healthy.
It's tough to remember someone as polarizing as Ellsbury in recent seasons, and not in a Josh Hamilton type of way in that either you love him or you don't. I like Ellsbury to bounce back, at least enough to rank him 44th overall. I enjoyed his monster 2011 campaign on several teams, confident that the 2010 injury he suffered, when he ran into then-teammate Adrian Beltre, was flukish. I seek out undervalued players from odd injuries with a track record of success. I thought Ellsbury would steal his 60-plus bases, score many runs and act like Michael Bourn. Nobody expected him to act like Milwaukee Brewers outfielder Ryan Braun, who boasts these amazing numbers annually. Ellsbury still has hit double-digit home runs in only one season in his career.
Now our minds are a raging torrent, flooded with rivulets of thought cascading into a waterfall of creative alternatives about what Ellsbury might do, and all the possibilities are reasonable, I suppose. He could steal a ton of bases. He could hit a ton of home runs. He could play in 40 games. He could play in 140 games and perform like Alejandro De Aza, which has value, but not in the fifth round. For the risk of finding out, Ellsbury is currently being selected No. 48 in ESPN average live drafts. That, my pals, is risky, because it's not solely about his health. I rank Tulo, Longo and Joey Bats among my top 15 overall players because they have created a baseline of offensive prowess. I believe they will not underachieve when healthy, and frankly I don't see why they can't be healthy. Tulo went .300-30-100 as recently as 2011. Longoria hit 17 home runs and knocked in 55 in less than half a season in 2012. Bautista is one of the two players ESPN Fantasy projects to swat 40-plus home runs.
With Ellsbury, not only do we not know what we're getting health-wise, we also don't know what we'd get if healthy. For the record, ESPN Fantasy projects 17 home runs, 27 stolen bases and a .294 batting average, so it assumes at least 130 games. Can it happen? It's a risk, but that could be the reward.
Here are some other risks in the Nos. 50-100 range of the top 100 in ESPN ADP, because while they're not first-rounders, these picks are valuable, too.
Aroldis Chapman, RP, Cincinnati Reds: It's a two-prong risk here for an eighth-rounder (in ESPN ADP). One, if you draft him as a starter and he closes, which I suspect will happen, will you be short a starter? Two, can he stay healthy in either role? I'm hoping for the best, but watch him throw and be prepared. I rank him No. 100, not 77th (his ADP).
Mark Trumbo, OF, Los Angeles Angels: If his first two weeks of the season look anything like his final eight weeks of 2012, when he hit .208 with a .552 OPS and only five home runs, he'll be instant free-agent fodder in April. Seems foolish to select him as early as a ninth-rounder; he's not close to my top 100.
Any closer not named Craig Kimbrel: Sorry, but there are just way too many valuable hitters and, for that matter, potential No. 2 fantasy starting pitchers, to grab the mere mortal closers in the top 100.
Matt Wieters, C, Baltimore Orioles: Sorry, but for those in standard, 10-team formats with one catcher, there are other catchers with power who didn't hit .249 last season going much later, such Miguel Montero. And it's not as though Wieters has Trumbo-like power, either.
Tim Lincecum, SP, San Francisco Giants: OK, cheating a bit since he's going No. 104, but ESPN Fantasy ranks him 15 spots later. Remember, Trumbo can hurt you only in batting average. Lincecum can hurt you in ERA and WHIP.
</offer>
Strategy: When to draft starting pitchers
Eric Karabell
We're still in February, but ESPN's live draft results page is up and running, and a few things jump out to me. Detroit Tigers third baseman Miguel Cabrera is going first overall, with Milwaukee Brewers outfielder Ryan Braun, ESPN's pick for the top, falling to third. There's a catcher busting the top-15 party, and apparently owners are not too concerned about a certain Colorado Rockies shortstop staying healthy (he's being taken 13th, on average). Oh, and there's a pitcher in the first round. A pitcher!?
My take on when to draft starting pitchers is pretty consistent from year to year, and it usually doesn't include the likes of Justin Verlander or Clayton Kershaw ending up on my teams. I love those fellows; really, I do. Who wouldn't? Procuring awesome pitching early in drafts can make fantasy owners feel all warm and fuzzy … until they check out what their offense looks like. This is ultimately why I avoid starting pitching early. I'd prefer to build up my offense, which isn't nearly as easy to do as in past seasons. Then I build it a bit more, and even more after that … and I feel like I can fashion a nice pitching staff later or even "fake" it in April through free agency.
<offer>This isn't a decision I came across lightly, this approach that avoids the top starting pitchers and constructs offense-heavy standard-league teams, often with nine of my first 10 picks making their living hitting the baseball. Then again, I can't recall ever really wanting to build squads with pitching. Hey, this style isn't for everyone. Back in the day, there was so much offense -- when that Barry Bonds guy was all the rage -- a fantasy owner had to keep up and load up, so to speak. Now, since offense has dried up and pitching is king, it's supply versus demand, and still, you've gotta get the bats. I've tried it the other way in a mock draft or two, both this season and over the past several, stockpiling multiple aces -- or whatever an ace really is -- and by Round 15 I'm wondering why I'm seriously lacking offense and how to fix it.</offer>
I can't really say anything negative about Verlander or Kershaw, other than the fact that they don't hit for power, steal bases or help a fantasy team's batting average. Plus, this isn't to say that someone cannot build a successful team with them. There are, of course, myriad ways to build a successful fantasy roster, going pitching-heavy early or avoiding it until late -- or maybe just trying to find the next Mike Trout, R.A. Dickey and Fernando Rodney in the last round will take care of that. My preferred way is with offense. For those who claim a fantasy team cannot win without an ace, I disagree. This doesn't mean you want Tim Hudson or Jarrod Parker as your top pitchers, though.
As with anything in life or fantasy sports, a proper balance is recommended, but that hardly means half your first 10 players -- or 20 -- need to be pitchers, even though they supply, in theory, half the statistics. They don't. That's one factor for me. Boston Red Sox second baseman Dustin Pedroia, a guy I'd consider in the third round, will contribute in five fantasy categories this season, some better than others; Verlander and Kershaw cannot do this. And as we saw in 2012 when each of these Cy Young-level fellows dropped a full seven wins off his 2011 pace, pitchers can be as erratic statistically as hitters. That doesn't mean I'd take Pedroia over Verlander or Kershaw, but given the live draft results, I likely won't need to make that choice. Others will make it for me. Of course, I'd grab Verlander in Round 3 or Stephen Strasburg in Round 4 or Cliff Lee in Round 6. But that's not realistic. What is realistic, to me, is that procuring several top-40 pitchers can have a similar and positive effect on a fantasy team.
The thinking goes -- and the strategy works for me -- that if a fantasy team is loaded with offense and has enough pitching to contend, some pitchers will emerge as stars, and in-season adjustments can take care of the rest. For one, we know pitchers are more likely to be injured than hitters, at least in terms of total days missed (most elbow injuries take a lot more than a 15-day disabled list trip to heal). I chose then-Cincinnati Reds closer Ryan Madson in an NL-only auction a year ago this week, days before he injured his elbow and was lost for the season. Sure, hitters get hurt as well, and occasionally an Evan Longoria or Jose Bautista really leaves a void. But I also think it's easier to replace hitters via trade or free agency. With pitchers, we play the "spot-start" game in some cases, hoping Jeff Samardzija will stay for real or relying on Jason Vargas for his home outings. Hitters are more reliable, safer. They can't hurt a fantasy team as much, not like Tim Lincecum can.
In a recent draft, I went hitters with 10 of my first 11 selections, with Zack Greinke thrown in there, and still found plenty of underrated arms starting in the 12th round, including Jon Lester, Hiroki Kuroda, Jonathon Niese, Hudson and Parker. The offense I constructed is strong, at least on paper. They do have to play the games, of course, but it's a team -- and strategy -- I'm comfortable with. I don't have to win every pitching statistic, but rather compete in them, and I can tweak the roster as needed. I think it's easier to find the sleeper pitchers later, so that's my story yet again, and I'm sticking to it!
Eric Karabell
We're still in February, but ESPN's live draft results page is up and running, and a few things jump out to me. Detroit Tigers third baseman Miguel Cabrera is going first overall, with Milwaukee Brewers outfielder Ryan Braun, ESPN's pick for the top, falling to third. There's a catcher busting the top-15 party, and apparently owners are not too concerned about a certain Colorado Rockies shortstop staying healthy (he's being taken 13th, on average). Oh, and there's a pitcher in the first round. A pitcher!?
My take on when to draft starting pitchers is pretty consistent from year to year, and it usually doesn't include the likes of Justin Verlander or Clayton Kershaw ending up on my teams. I love those fellows; really, I do. Who wouldn't? Procuring awesome pitching early in drafts can make fantasy owners feel all warm and fuzzy … until they check out what their offense looks like. This is ultimately why I avoid starting pitching early. I'd prefer to build up my offense, which isn't nearly as easy to do as in past seasons. Then I build it a bit more, and even more after that … and I feel like I can fashion a nice pitching staff later or even "fake" it in April through free agency.
<offer>This isn't a decision I came across lightly, this approach that avoids the top starting pitchers and constructs offense-heavy standard-league teams, often with nine of my first 10 picks making their living hitting the baseball. Then again, I can't recall ever really wanting to build squads with pitching. Hey, this style isn't for everyone. Back in the day, there was so much offense -- when that Barry Bonds guy was all the rage -- a fantasy owner had to keep up and load up, so to speak. Now, since offense has dried up and pitching is king, it's supply versus demand, and still, you've gotta get the bats. I've tried it the other way in a mock draft or two, both this season and over the past several, stockpiling multiple aces -- or whatever an ace really is -- and by Round 15 I'm wondering why I'm seriously lacking offense and how to fix it.</offer>
I can't really say anything negative about Verlander or Kershaw, other than the fact that they don't hit for power, steal bases or help a fantasy team's batting average. Plus, this isn't to say that someone cannot build a successful team with them. There are, of course, myriad ways to build a successful fantasy roster, going pitching-heavy early or avoiding it until late -- or maybe just trying to find the next Mike Trout, R.A. Dickey and Fernando Rodney in the last round will take care of that. My preferred way is with offense. For those who claim a fantasy team cannot win without an ace, I disagree. This doesn't mean you want Tim Hudson or Jarrod Parker as your top pitchers, though.
As with anything in life or fantasy sports, a proper balance is recommended, but that hardly means half your first 10 players -- or 20 -- need to be pitchers, even though they supply, in theory, half the statistics. They don't. That's one factor for me. Boston Red Sox second baseman Dustin Pedroia, a guy I'd consider in the third round, will contribute in five fantasy categories this season, some better than others; Verlander and Kershaw cannot do this. And as we saw in 2012 when each of these Cy Young-level fellows dropped a full seven wins off his 2011 pace, pitchers can be as erratic statistically as hitters. That doesn't mean I'd take Pedroia over Verlander or Kershaw, but given the live draft results, I likely won't need to make that choice. Others will make it for me. Of course, I'd grab Verlander in Round 3 or Stephen Strasburg in Round 4 or Cliff Lee in Round 6. But that's not realistic. What is realistic, to me, is that procuring several top-40 pitchers can have a similar and positive effect on a fantasy team.
The thinking goes -- and the strategy works for me -- that if a fantasy team is loaded with offense and has enough pitching to contend, some pitchers will emerge as stars, and in-season adjustments can take care of the rest. For one, we know pitchers are more likely to be injured than hitters, at least in terms of total days missed (most elbow injuries take a lot more than a 15-day disabled list trip to heal). I chose then-Cincinnati Reds closer Ryan Madson in an NL-only auction a year ago this week, days before he injured his elbow and was lost for the season. Sure, hitters get hurt as well, and occasionally an Evan Longoria or Jose Bautista really leaves a void. But I also think it's easier to replace hitters via trade or free agency. With pitchers, we play the "spot-start" game in some cases, hoping Jeff Samardzija will stay for real or relying on Jason Vargas for his home outings. Hitters are more reliable, safer. They can't hurt a fantasy team as much, not like Tim Lincecum can.
In a recent draft, I went hitters with 10 of my first 11 selections, with Zack Greinke thrown in there, and still found plenty of underrated arms starting in the 12th round, including Jon Lester, Hiroki Kuroda, Jonathon Niese, Hudson and Parker. The offense I constructed is strong, at least on paper. They do have to play the games, of course, but it's a team -- and strategy -- I'm comfortable with. I don't have to win every pitching statistic, but rather compete in them, and I can tweak the roster as needed. I think it's easier to find the sleeper pitchers later, so that's my story yet again, and I'm sticking to it!
Roy Halladay still a top-12 starter
By Brian Gramling | Special to ESPN.com
Entering the 2012 season, Philadelphia Phillies hurler Roy Halladay was the top-ranked starting pitcher in ESPN.com's preseason rankings. He checked in at No. 11 among all players, carrying a hefty $29 auction value in mixed leagues. Heading into this year, Halladay is ranked No. 21 among starting pitchers, 75th overall and worth just $14 in 12-team auctions. Does he really deserve to fall this far from grace?
I don't think so, which is why, despite last year's struggles with back and shoulder problems, I was happy to grab him 70th overall (the 17th starting pitcher taken) in our Feb. 14 mock draft. Fantasy owners seem to agree with me that Halladay is ranked just a bit too low in the ESPN.com rankings; Halladay is currently being taken 17th among starting pitchers and right around No. 64 overall in ESPN live drafts. And I think even that's too low for him. In fact, I think he's still a top-12 fantasy starter.
In terms of starting pitching, I think there is a definitive top six of Justin Verlander, Clayton Kershaw, Stephen Strasburg, Felix Hernandez, David Price and Matt Cain. But I believe Halladay deserves to be among the top of the next tier of aces. To justify this opinion, I took the 14 starters ranked ahead of Halladay in the ESPN.com rankings and conducted a numbers comparison from the past three seasons, using these key categories: wins, ERA, WHIP, strikeouts and K/BB ratio. And yes, I did include Halladay's subpar 2012 campaign. Note that Adam Wainwright missed all of the 2011 season, Yu Darvish has pitched just one season in the major leagues and Chris Sale's numbers are only as a starter, which he has done for just one year.
[h=4]ESPN Fantasy starting pitcher rankings[/h] Three-year statistical comparison (2010 to 2012)
<thead>
</thead><tbody>
</tbody>
The following table shows where the 15 pitchers rank when compared with one another in these same categories, in a roto-style scoring format where the best statistic in a certain category receives 15 points, second best gets 14, going all the way down to 1 point for the least effective pitcher in a category:
[h=4]ESPN Fantasy starting pitcher rankings[/h] Three-year roto comparison (2010 to 2012)
<thead>
</thead><tbody>
</tbody>
So even with last year's struggles, Halladay still ranks third on this list behind teammates Cliff Lee and Cole Hamels. And if you discard the lesser-used K/BB statistic, Jered Weaver also finishes ahead of Halladay. The only other pitcher close to Halladay is 23-year-old Chris Sale, who ties him in the other four categories when we eliminate wins. With his youth and tremendous strikeout rate, one could certainly be justified in taking Sale ahead of the man who is a dozen years older than him.
Even if Halladay is behind Lee, Hamels, Weaver and Sale, that still leaves Halladay as the No. 11 starting pitcher. The next closest pitcher in the table (CC Sabathia) is significantly below Halladay in all four qualitative categories listed above, besting him only in wins. And no other pitcher ranked between No. 10 and No. 20 in ESPN.com's rankings is within 20 total ranking points of Halladay in the comparison table.
Of course you can't base a fantasy projection solely on the past three years alone, because all that matters is what the player will be projected to do this coming season. Assuming his back holds up for 32 starts may be a big assumption, but then again, all players carry a risk of injury. Since 2006, Halladay has been on the DL just twice, last year with his back problems and in 2007, when he missed 18 games due to appendicitis. In these seven seasons, he has averaged more than 224 innings. In addition to this amazing durability, the 35-year-old -- he turns 36 on May 14 -- has some other positive aspects working in his favor as he enters his 16th major league season.
First off, he's in a contract year and needs 225 innings pitched for his $23 million vesting option for 2014 to be activated. Even if he doesn't reach this threshold, he'll be playing for a new contract.
Halladay has started spring training on a high note, with a 1.15 WHIP and five strikeouts in 4 1/3 innings against two quality lineups (New York Yankees and Detroit Tigers). But more importantly, he reportedly has felt great physically and is already registering low-90s on the radar gun.
After starting the past 10 Opening Days, Halladay likely be the Phils' No. 2 starter this season, as the Phillies' coaching staff prefers to put him between southpaws Cliff Lee and Cole Hamels in the rotation. This may not mean much later in the year, but for the first month, Halladay likely will be facing mainly opposing No. 2 and No. 3 starting pitchers, which for many teams is a huge drop-off from the ace.
With the major league schedule so division-heavy, Halladay certainly should benefit from pitching in the NL East. The Miami Marlins finished second-to-last in the majors in runs scored in 2012, and the lineup likely will be much weaker without the departed Jose Reyes and Emilio Bonifacio, not to mention starting a season without Hanley Ramirez for the first time since 2006. The New York Mets had the sixth fewest runs in the majors last year and could be even worse this year with David Wright being the only legitimate hitter in this lineup. The Atlanta Braves made some power upgrades by adding both Justin Upton and B.J. Upton, but they could struggle to get on base consistently. The Washington Nationals should boast the best offense in the NL East, but Halladay has dominated the Nats in his career, going 12-2 with a 2.55 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, 7.6 K's per nine innings and a 6.2 K/BB ratio against them.
The Phillies still aren't a great defensive team, but the addition of CF Ben Revere from the Minnesota Twins will certainly help. Revere finished second among all major league players with 24 total zone runs, defined by baseball-reference.com as "The number of runs above or below average the player was worth based on the number of plays made." Only Michael Bourn had a higher number than Revere last season.
By Brian Gramling | Special to ESPN.com
Entering the 2012 season, Philadelphia Phillies hurler Roy Halladay was the top-ranked starting pitcher in ESPN.com's preseason rankings. He checked in at No. 11 among all players, carrying a hefty $29 auction value in mixed leagues. Heading into this year, Halladay is ranked No. 21 among starting pitchers, 75th overall and worth just $14 in 12-team auctions. Does he really deserve to fall this far from grace?
I don't think so, which is why, despite last year's struggles with back and shoulder problems, I was happy to grab him 70th overall (the 17th starting pitcher taken) in our Feb. 14 mock draft. Fantasy owners seem to agree with me that Halladay is ranked just a bit too low in the ESPN.com rankings; Halladay is currently being taken 17th among starting pitchers and right around No. 64 overall in ESPN live drafts. And I think even that's too low for him. In fact, I think he's still a top-12 fantasy starter.
In terms of starting pitching, I think there is a definitive top six of Justin Verlander, Clayton Kershaw, Stephen Strasburg, Felix Hernandez, David Price and Matt Cain. But I believe Halladay deserves to be among the top of the next tier of aces. To justify this opinion, I took the 14 starters ranked ahead of Halladay in the ESPN.com rankings and conducted a numbers comparison from the past three seasons, using these key categories: wins, ERA, WHIP, strikeouts and K/BB ratio. And yes, I did include Halladay's subpar 2012 campaign. Note that Adam Wainwright missed all of the 2011 season, Yu Darvish has pitched just one season in the major leagues and Chris Sale's numbers are only as a starter, which he has done for just one year.
[h=4]ESPN Fantasy starting pitcher rankings[/h] Three-year statistical comparison (2010 to 2012)
| Rank | Pitcher | Wins | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | K/BB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Cliff Lee | 35 | 2.89 | 1.05 | 8.6 | 7.2 |
| 8 | Cole Hamels | 43 | 2.97 | 1.10 | 8.7 | 4.0 |
| 9 | Jered Weaver | 51 | 2.73 | 1.03 | 8.0 | 3.7 |
| 10 | Zack Greinke | 41 | 3.83 | 1.22 | 8.7 | 3.8 |
| 11 | Gio Gonzalez | 52 | 3.08 | 1.25 | 8.6 | 2.2 |
| 12 | Adam Wainwright | 34 | 3.13 | 1.14 | 8.3 | 3.7 |
| 13 | Madison Bumgarner | 36 | 3.23 | 1.19 | 8.0 | 3.9 |
| 14 | Yu Darvish | 16 | 3.90 | 1.28 | 10.4 | 2.5 |
| 15 | R.A. Dickey | 39 | 2.95 | 1.15 | 6.8 | 3.1 |
| 16 | CC Sabathia | 55 | 3.17 | 1.19 | 8.3 | 3.5 |
| 17 | Chris Sale | 17 | 3.06 | 1.13 | 9.0 | 3.8 |
| 18 | Johnny Cueto | 40 | 2.93 | 1.18 | 6.6 | 2.7 |
| 19 | Mat Latos | 37 | 3.30 | 1.14 | 8.6 | 3.2 |
| 20 | Jordan Zimmermann | 21 | 3.20 | 1.17 | 7.1 | 3.6 |
| 21 | Roy Halladay | 51 | 2.91 | 1.08 | 8.0 | 5.7 |
<thead>
</thead><tbody>
</tbody>
The following table shows where the 15 pitchers rank when compared with one another in these same categories, in a roto-style scoring format where the best statistic in a certain category receives 15 points, second best gets 14, going all the way down to 1 point for the least effective pitcher in a category:
[h=4]ESPN Fantasy starting pitcher rankings[/h] Three-year roto comparison (2010 to 2012)
| Rank | Pitcher | Wins | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | K/BB | Tot Rk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 (tie) | Cliff Lee | 5 | 14 | 14 | 11 | 15 | 59 |
| 1 (tie) | Cole Hamels | 11 | 10 | 12 | 13 | 13 | 59 |
| 3 | Roy Halladay | 12.5 | 13 | 13 | 5 | 14 | 57.5 |
| 4 | Jered Weaver | 12.5 | 15 | 15 | 4 | 9 | 55.5 |
| 5 | Chris Sale | 2 | 9 | 11 | 14 | 11 | 47 |
| 6 | CC Sabathia | 15 | 6 | 5 | 7 | 6 | 39 |
| 7 (tie) | Zack Greinke | 10 | 2 | 3 | 12 | 10 | 37 |
| 7 (tie) | Adam Wainwright | 4 | 7 | 10 | 8 | 8 | 37 |
| 9 | Gio Gonzalez | 14 | 8 | 2 | 10 | 1 | 35 |
| 10 (tie) | R.A. Dickey | 8 | 11 | 8 | 2 | 4 | 33 |
| 10 (tie) | Mat Latos | 7 | 3 | 9 | 9 | 5 | 33 |
| 12 | Madison Bumgarner | 6 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 12 | 32 |
| 13 | Johnny Cueto | 9 | 12 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 31 |
| 14 | Jordan Zimmermann | 3 | 5 | 7 | 3 | 7 | 25 |
| 15 | Yu Darvish | 1 | 1 | 1 | 15 | 2 | 20 |
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</tbody>
So even with last year's struggles, Halladay still ranks third on this list behind teammates Cliff Lee and Cole Hamels. And if you discard the lesser-used K/BB statistic, Jered Weaver also finishes ahead of Halladay. The only other pitcher close to Halladay is 23-year-old Chris Sale, who ties him in the other four categories when we eliminate wins. With his youth and tremendous strikeout rate, one could certainly be justified in taking Sale ahead of the man who is a dozen years older than him.
Even if Halladay is behind Lee, Hamels, Weaver and Sale, that still leaves Halladay as the No. 11 starting pitcher. The next closest pitcher in the table (CC Sabathia) is significantly below Halladay in all four qualitative categories listed above, besting him only in wins. And no other pitcher ranked between No. 10 and No. 20 in ESPN.com's rankings is within 20 total ranking points of Halladay in the comparison table.
Of course you can't base a fantasy projection solely on the past three years alone, because all that matters is what the player will be projected to do this coming season. Assuming his back holds up for 32 starts may be a big assumption, but then again, all players carry a risk of injury. Since 2006, Halladay has been on the DL just twice, last year with his back problems and in 2007, when he missed 18 games due to appendicitis. In these seven seasons, he has averaged more than 224 innings. In addition to this amazing durability, the 35-year-old -- he turns 36 on May 14 -- has some other positive aspects working in his favor as he enters his 16th major league season.
First off, he's in a contract year and needs 225 innings pitched for his $23 million vesting option for 2014 to be activated. Even if he doesn't reach this threshold, he'll be playing for a new contract.
Halladay has started spring training on a high note, with a 1.15 WHIP and five strikeouts in 4 1/3 innings against two quality lineups (New York Yankees and Detroit Tigers). But more importantly, he reportedly has felt great physically and is already registering low-90s on the radar gun.
After starting the past 10 Opening Days, Halladay likely be the Phils' No. 2 starter this season, as the Phillies' coaching staff prefers to put him between southpaws Cliff Lee and Cole Hamels in the rotation. This may not mean much later in the year, but for the first month, Halladay likely will be facing mainly opposing No. 2 and No. 3 starting pitchers, which for many teams is a huge drop-off from the ace.
With the major league schedule so division-heavy, Halladay certainly should benefit from pitching in the NL East. The Miami Marlins finished second-to-last in the majors in runs scored in 2012, and the lineup likely will be much weaker without the departed Jose Reyes and Emilio Bonifacio, not to mention starting a season without Hanley Ramirez for the first time since 2006. The New York Mets had the sixth fewest runs in the majors last year and could be even worse this year with David Wright being the only legitimate hitter in this lineup. The Atlanta Braves made some power upgrades by adding both Justin Upton and B.J. Upton, but they could struggle to get on base consistently. The Washington Nationals should boast the best offense in the NL East, but Halladay has dominated the Nats in his career, going 12-2 with a 2.55 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, 7.6 K's per nine innings and a 6.2 K/BB ratio against them.
The Phillies still aren't a great defensive team, but the addition of CF Ben Revere from the Minnesota Twins will certainly help. Revere finished second among all major league players with 24 total zone runs, defined by baseball-reference.com as "The number of runs above or below average the player was worth based on the number of plays made." Only Michael Bourn had a higher number than Revere last season.
[h=1]The myth of pitching depth[/h][h=3]Don't be fooled, there were just as many good pitchers 10 years ago
By Dan Szymborski | ESPN Insider
Correctly predicting how players will do in a given season is (obviously) an important part of winning in fantasy baseball, but it's not the only important part. Knowing the distribution of talent at a position is also an extremely useful bit of knowledge as it will affect the decisions made by the other owners in the league. Whenever you play any kind of game, if you're only focused on your moves and not paying attention to your opponent's, you're well on your way to losing.
There's a school of thought that starting pitching in fantasy is deeper than it has been in a long time, and as a result, it's easier to fill out the back-end of a rotation. But is it true?
If you're reading this, it will come as no shock that overall league ERA and WHIP are considerably lower than they were just a few years ago. Over the last three years, the total ERA and WHIP in MLB was 4.01 and 1.324 respectively, numbers that are lower than anything we've seen since 1988-'92. If you're chasing a few starters to fill out your bench, their numbers will look considerably better than they did a few years ago.
<offer>But value in baseball, whether fantasy or real-life, is relative, not absolute. If they played fantasy baseball in 1918, a first baseman with five home runs and 60 RBIs would be highly sought after in drafts and auctions in March. Those numbers, even in 2012, would usually leave that player experiencing a very lonely season on the waiver wire.
<!-- begin inline 1 -->[/h][h=4]No deeper[/h][h=3]The table below shows the number of pitchers in each year who have had an ERA or WHIP better than league average. Although the run scoring environment has changed, the number of above-average pitchers has not.
<thead>
</thead><tbody>
</tbody>
<!-- end inline 1 -->So, is starting pitcher depth right now really better than in previous seasons? To do this, we took all pitchers over the last 10 years who had 100 innings pitched in a season. Then, we calculated how many of those had an ERA or a WHIP above league average, using the overall MLB average and ignoring park effects because only a very few specialized fantasy leagues are likely to have any consideration of park effects. If baseball's depth is really greater, we should see the numbers of these players increasing at the expense of the extremes.
In any case, the number of starting pitchers who are above league average in ERA and WHIP are not, in fact, increasing at all as run scoring has dropped. For example, if you were looking for pitchers with league-average ERAs, you'd find 80 in 2003 and 75 in 2012. The ranges are very tight and consistent, from 70-80 pitchers with a league-average ERA and 75-86 pitchers with a league-average WHIP in each of the last 10 years (see table).
Now, if the number of average-or-better starters hasn't changed over the years, has the difference between the elites and the lower tiers shrunk? If you're going to be increasingly willing to pass over the elites for the lesser starters, you have to be getting some bang for your buck.
In 2012, the top 10 starting pitchers in terms of ERA above average (Kris Medlen, Clayton Kershaw, Justin Verlander, David Price, R.A. Dickey, Matt Cain, Johnny Cueto, Kyle Lohse, Jered Weaver, and Gio Gonzalez) saved an average of 31 runs over a league-average pitcher. Pitchers 21-30 (Stephen Strasburg, Madison Bumgarner, Wade Miley, Brandon Morrow, CC Sabathia, Ryan Vogelsong, Jonathon Niese, James Shields, Mat Latos and Hisashi Iwakuma) saved an average of 14 runs, or 43 percent of the top five. Jump down another couple more magnitudes in rosterability to 51-60 and that figure drops down to 16 percent
Go back to the start of the decade looked at (2003) and those numbers are 50 percent and 17 percent. In 2006, the biggest offensive year of the last decade, those numbers are 53 percent and 16 percent. Repeating the process with WHIP and the results are similar: no significant increase or decrease in the dropoff from the elites to the lesser tiers.
What does this mean? The dropoff in league offense has not increased starting pitching depth or shrunk the difference between the best starters and the lesser lights. If you're going to avoid taking pitchers longer than you normally would because you believe that there are more worthwhile lower-tier options than usual, don't be surprised when you're lagging in ERA and WHIP come August.
And if someone in your fantasy league expresses joy at the increased depth of quality major league pitching? Be a helpful soul and let them have some of it. </offer>
[/h]
By Dan Szymborski | ESPN Insider
Correctly predicting how players will do in a given season is (obviously) an important part of winning in fantasy baseball, but it's not the only important part. Knowing the distribution of talent at a position is also an extremely useful bit of knowledge as it will affect the decisions made by the other owners in the league. Whenever you play any kind of game, if you're only focused on your moves and not paying attention to your opponent's, you're well on your way to losing.
There's a school of thought that starting pitching in fantasy is deeper than it has been in a long time, and as a result, it's easier to fill out the back-end of a rotation. But is it true?
If you're reading this, it will come as no shock that overall league ERA and WHIP are considerably lower than they were just a few years ago. Over the last three years, the total ERA and WHIP in MLB was 4.01 and 1.324 respectively, numbers that are lower than anything we've seen since 1988-'92. If you're chasing a few starters to fill out your bench, their numbers will look considerably better than they did a few years ago.
<offer>But value in baseball, whether fantasy or real-life, is relative, not absolute. If they played fantasy baseball in 1918, a first baseman with five home runs and 60 RBIs would be highly sought after in drafts and auctions in March. Those numbers, even in 2012, would usually leave that player experiencing a very lonely season on the waiver wire.
<!-- begin inline 1 -->[/h][h=4]No deeper[/h][h=3]The table below shows the number of pitchers in each year who have had an ERA or WHIP better than league average. Although the run scoring environment has changed, the number of above-average pitchers has not.
| YEAR | ERA | WHIP |
|---|---|---|
| 2003 | 80 | 79 |
| 2004 | 75 | 86 |
| 2005 | 70 | 75 |
| 2006 | 72 | 80 |
| 2007 | 76 | 86 |
| 2008 | 79 | 84 |
| 2009 | 72 | 75 |
| 2010 | 71 | 79 |
| 2011 | 77 | 77 |
| 2012 | 75 | 84 |
<thead>
</thead><tbody>
</tbody>
<!-- end inline 1 -->So, is starting pitcher depth right now really better than in previous seasons? To do this, we took all pitchers over the last 10 years who had 100 innings pitched in a season. Then, we calculated how many of those had an ERA or a WHIP above league average, using the overall MLB average and ignoring park effects because only a very few specialized fantasy leagues are likely to have any consideration of park effects. If baseball's depth is really greater, we should see the numbers of these players increasing at the expense of the extremes.
In any case, the number of starting pitchers who are above league average in ERA and WHIP are not, in fact, increasing at all as run scoring has dropped. For example, if you were looking for pitchers with league-average ERAs, you'd find 80 in 2003 and 75 in 2012. The ranges are very tight and consistent, from 70-80 pitchers with a league-average ERA and 75-86 pitchers with a league-average WHIP in each of the last 10 years (see table).
Now, if the number of average-or-better starters hasn't changed over the years, has the difference between the elites and the lower tiers shrunk? If you're going to be increasingly willing to pass over the elites for the lesser starters, you have to be getting some bang for your buck.
In 2012, the top 10 starting pitchers in terms of ERA above average (Kris Medlen, Clayton Kershaw, Justin Verlander, David Price, R.A. Dickey, Matt Cain, Johnny Cueto, Kyle Lohse, Jered Weaver, and Gio Gonzalez) saved an average of 31 runs over a league-average pitcher. Pitchers 21-30 (Stephen Strasburg, Madison Bumgarner, Wade Miley, Brandon Morrow, CC Sabathia, Ryan Vogelsong, Jonathon Niese, James Shields, Mat Latos and Hisashi Iwakuma) saved an average of 14 runs, or 43 percent of the top five. Jump down another couple more magnitudes in rosterability to 51-60 and that figure drops down to 16 percent
Go back to the start of the decade looked at (2003) and those numbers are 50 percent and 17 percent. In 2006, the biggest offensive year of the last decade, those numbers are 53 percent and 16 percent. Repeating the process with WHIP and the results are similar: no significant increase or decrease in the dropoff from the elites to the lesser tiers.
What does this mean? The dropoff in league offense has not increased starting pitching depth or shrunk the difference between the best starters and the lesser lights. If you're going to avoid taking pitchers longer than you normally would because you believe that there are more worthwhile lower-tier options than usual, don't be surprised when you're lagging in ERA and WHIP come August.
And if someone in your fantasy league expresses joy at the increased depth of quality major league pitching? Be a helpful soul and let them have some of it. </offer>
[/h]
[h=1]Lots of steals headed to AL[/h][h=3]Offseason moves have shaken up stolen base market in AL- and NL-only leagues[/h]By Keith Lipscomb | ESPN.com
If you played in a league-specific roto format last season, especially if it's a keeper league, you probably noticed something during the offseason that means nothing to those in mixed roto leagues: Many of the top stolen base threats from 2012 switched leagues.
In keeper leagues, it's significant because you lose the rights to those players, but as long as the number of steals options switching between the American and National leagues is relatively even, you know you'll have the ability to make up for the loss of those players with a winning bid in your auction or by simply drafting them, depending on how your league operates.
For NL-only owners this season, though, that's where the problem lies. It was anything but an even swap in terms of the offseason movement of speedsters. For starters, the Houston Astros moved from the NL Central to the AL West, finally evening out the number of teams in each league at 15. Secondly, of the 23 players who stole 30 or more bases in 2012, more than one-third of them -- eight, to be exact -- changed leagues. Of those eight players, six are going from the NL to the AL, an extremely notable occurrence in terms of draft strategy in both AL- and NL-only formats.
[h=3]Players with 30-plus SBs in 2012 switching leagues for 2013[/h]
<thead>
<tbody>
</tbody>(2012 stolen bases and MLB rank in parentheses)
Simply put, it will be easier to find steals in your AL drafts than in NL drafts this year. Bourn, Reyes and Victorino represent three of the top four base stealers in the NL from 2012, while Revere finished third in the AL last season. And while that alone marks quite a shift in the department from league to league, it's also important to note that only one other player with at least 20 steals in 2012 is switching from the AL to NL (Shin-Soo Choo, who had 21 in 2012).
So how does this impact league-specific drafts in 2013?
[h=3]Supply and demand[/h]
Last year, there were just 1,501 steals in the AL, the fewest in the league since 2008. By contrast, there were 1,728 stolen bases in the NL, the most in either league since 1999. The biggest difference came at the top, as 14 of the 23 players to steal 30-plus bases in 2012 were in the National League. However, as mentioned above, six of those 14 are now in the AL and if you simply look at 2012 steal totals, the American League now has 13 of the 23 players to swipe 30 or more last season. If you take the six 30-steal players coming over to the AL, they would account for more than 14 percent of last year's total.
NL-only impact
It only gets worse for NL owners if you look at the past two seasons. Of the 25 players who have more than 50 stolen bases in that span, 18 of them now reside in the American League, including seven of the top eight. This means that despite the fact the highest projected steals options in the NL don't offer much else in other fantasy categories (Everth Cabrera, Ben Revere and Juan Pierre, to name a few), you'll see them come off the board sooner than they would have last season or go for a higher price in auctions out of sheer need in the category.
Needless to say, the NL owners who draft the likes of Matt Kemp and Carl Crawford, for example, will be hoping for a return to past glory in the department. Meanwhile, those in new keeper leagues will be targeting the biggest potential difference maker from down on the farm, blazing-fast Cincinnati Reds prospect Billy Hamilton. After his 155 steals in the minors last season, he has the ability to carry a fantasy team to the top of the standings in the category all by himself in roto leagues, or win the category every week in head-to-head play. However, it's unknown if or when he'll make it to The Show this season.
AL-only impact
While it may not be as difficult to find elite steals options in AL roto play, that doesn't mean you can wait forever, either. Remember, with more quality options in the category and no one dominant stolen base source according to our projections, you're going to need two or three significant contributors to keep you afloat.
[h=3]Beware of projections[/h]
In our projections, there are 52 players expected to steal at least 20 bases this season, and while 27 of them reside in the National League, remember that projections are essentially educated guesses based on past performance and potential. It's important to have your own opinion of how confident you are in players to achieve those projected figures, as well as taking into account the other statistics those players provide.
While there's no question Dee Gordon (34), Carlos Gomez (33), Andrelton Simmons (21) and Eric Young Jr. (20) have the ability to reach, or even exceed in some cases, their projected totals, I have numerous (and different) concerns about each of them that may preclude me from wanting them on my fantasy team this season. Some of the concerns are related to playing time, while others are performance-based with regard to other categories. That's why I'm not all that high on the National League steals candidates as a whole, and why I think it's a significant concern on draft day when addressing the category. I'd rather not hurt my team in batting average, home runs and RBIs -- and maybe even runs -- just so I can get some stolen base potential. If you are on the same page, that means it's even more imperative that you land the Ryan Braun, Andrew McCutchen, B.J. Upton and Carlos Gonzalez types, who can offer multicategorical value elsewhere while still giving you a nice base in steals.
[h=3]Positional concerns[/h]
• It's not a surprise that the players expected to steal the most bases are outfielders and middle infielders, but of those 52 players projected to reach 20 stolen bases, not one of them is an NL second baseman. In all, there are only five second basemen as it is. The only two NL second basemen projected to steal more than 15 bases are Danny Espinosa and Cliff Pennington.
• Hanley Ramirez has seen his batting average fall off considerably the past two seasons, but he is eligible at third base, still hits for power and has stolen at least 20 bases in each of the past seven seasons. What's more important for this particular column, though, is that he's the only player eligible at a position other than 2B, SS or OF among those 52 projected to swipe 20 bases this season. It's awfully hard to ignore the value of that in any league, let alone the steals-starved National League.
All of this is to say that in the AL you'll need more steals on your roster this season than in recent years if you want to compete in the category. And in the NL, the "sure things" in steals seem to have thinned out considerably, so make sure to get an elite option early and chip away from there, keeping in mind that second base is devoid of any big-time contributors.
If you played in a league-specific roto format last season, especially if it's a keeper league, you probably noticed something during the offseason that means nothing to those in mixed roto leagues: Many of the top stolen base threats from 2012 switched leagues.
In keeper leagues, it's significant because you lose the rights to those players, but as long as the number of steals options switching between the American and National leagues is relatively even, you know you'll have the ability to make up for the loss of those players with a winning bid in your auction or by simply drafting them, depending on how your league operates.
For NL-only owners this season, though, that's where the problem lies. It was anything but an even swap in terms of the offseason movement of speedsters. For starters, the Houston Astros moved from the NL Central to the AL West, finally evening out the number of teams in each league at 15. Secondly, of the 23 players who stole 30 or more bases in 2012, more than one-third of them -- eight, to be exact -- changed leagues. Of those eight players, six are going from the NL to the AL, an extremely notable occurrence in terms of draft strategy in both AL- and NL-only formats.
[h=3]Players with 30-plus SBs in 2012 switching leagues for 2013[/h]
| To the AL | To the NL |
|---|---|
| Michael Bourn (42, 4th) | Ben Revere (40, T-5th) |
| Jose Reyes (40, T-5th) | B.J. Upton (31, T-14th) |
| Shane Victorino (39, T-7th) | |
| Jose Altuve (33, 12th) | |
| Emilio Bonifacio (30, T-17th) | |
| Drew Stubbs (30, T-17th) |
<thead>
<tbody>
</tbody>
Simply put, it will be easier to find steals in your AL drafts than in NL drafts this year. Bourn, Reyes and Victorino represent three of the top four base stealers in the NL from 2012, while Revere finished third in the AL last season. And while that alone marks quite a shift in the department from league to league, it's also important to note that only one other player with at least 20 steals in 2012 is switching from the AL to NL (Shin-Soo Choo, who had 21 in 2012).
So how does this impact league-specific drafts in 2013?
[h=3]Supply and demand[/h]
Last year, there were just 1,501 steals in the AL, the fewest in the league since 2008. By contrast, there were 1,728 stolen bases in the NL, the most in either league since 1999. The biggest difference came at the top, as 14 of the 23 players to steal 30-plus bases in 2012 were in the National League. However, as mentioned above, six of those 14 are now in the AL and if you simply look at 2012 steal totals, the American League now has 13 of the 23 players to swipe 30 or more last season. If you take the six 30-steal players coming over to the AL, they would account for more than 14 percent of last year's total.
NL-only impact
It only gets worse for NL owners if you look at the past two seasons. Of the 25 players who have more than 50 stolen bases in that span, 18 of them now reside in the American League, including seven of the top eight. This means that despite the fact the highest projected steals options in the NL don't offer much else in other fantasy categories (Everth Cabrera, Ben Revere and Juan Pierre, to name a few), you'll see them come off the board sooner than they would have last season or go for a higher price in auctions out of sheer need in the category.
Needless to say, the NL owners who draft the likes of Matt Kemp and Carl Crawford, for example, will be hoping for a return to past glory in the department. Meanwhile, those in new keeper leagues will be targeting the biggest potential difference maker from down on the farm, blazing-fast Cincinnati Reds prospect Billy Hamilton. After his 155 steals in the minors last season, he has the ability to carry a fantasy team to the top of the standings in the category all by himself in roto leagues, or win the category every week in head-to-head play. However, it's unknown if or when he'll make it to The Show this season.
AL-only impact
While it may not be as difficult to find elite steals options in AL roto play, that doesn't mean you can wait forever, either. Remember, with more quality options in the category and no one dominant stolen base source according to our projections, you're going to need two or three significant contributors to keep you afloat.
[h=3]Beware of projections[/h]
In our projections, there are 52 players expected to steal at least 20 bases this season, and while 27 of them reside in the National League, remember that projections are essentially educated guesses based on past performance and potential. It's important to have your own opinion of how confident you are in players to achieve those projected figures, as well as taking into account the other statistics those players provide.
While there's no question Dee Gordon (34), Carlos Gomez (33), Andrelton Simmons (21) and Eric Young Jr. (20) have the ability to reach, or even exceed in some cases, their projected totals, I have numerous (and different) concerns about each of them that may preclude me from wanting them on my fantasy team this season. Some of the concerns are related to playing time, while others are performance-based with regard to other categories. That's why I'm not all that high on the National League steals candidates as a whole, and why I think it's a significant concern on draft day when addressing the category. I'd rather not hurt my team in batting average, home runs and RBIs -- and maybe even runs -- just so I can get some stolen base potential. If you are on the same page, that means it's even more imperative that you land the Ryan Braun, Andrew McCutchen, B.J. Upton and Carlos Gonzalez types, who can offer multicategorical value elsewhere while still giving you a nice base in steals.
[h=3]Positional concerns[/h]
• It's not a surprise that the players expected to steal the most bases are outfielders and middle infielders, but of those 52 players projected to reach 20 stolen bases, not one of them is an NL second baseman. In all, there are only five second basemen as it is. The only two NL second basemen projected to steal more than 15 bases are Danny Espinosa and Cliff Pennington.
• Hanley Ramirez has seen his batting average fall off considerably the past two seasons, but he is eligible at third base, still hits for power and has stolen at least 20 bases in each of the past seven seasons. What's more important for this particular column, though, is that he's the only player eligible at a position other than 2B, SS or OF among those 52 projected to swipe 20 bases this season. It's awfully hard to ignore the value of that in any league, let alone the steals-starved National League.
All of this is to say that in the AL you'll need more steals on your roster this season than in recent years if you want to compete in the category. And in the NL, the "sure things" in steals seem to have thinned out considerably, so make sure to get an elite option early and chip away from there, keeping in mind that second base is devoid of any big-time contributors.
The math approach to drafting SPs
By Todd Zola | Mastersball.com
"There's no way! I'm not drafting Cole Hamels or Matt Cain early, let alone Justin Verlander, Clayton Kershaw or even Stephen Strasburg. I never take pitchers before the 10th round!" -- Fantasy baseball dinosaur.
Good luck with that.
Evaluating pitching via advanced metrics has become commonplace. Most fantasy enthusiasts realize that looking at ERA is no longer the best means to judge a pitcher. Instead, they compare the ERA to the xFIP and FIP. They know to observe how far the pitcher's BABIP, HR/FB or LOB% are from the league norm.
As such, the means to piece together a fantasy pitching staff has radically changed. Depending on your league format and rules, the adage "wait on pitching" is no longer universally viable. If savvy owners comprise your league, you have to draft pitching earlier than is previous seasons. Today, we are going to put the construction of a competitive fantasy pitching staff under the microscope and unveil a "paint by number" means of assembling a staff without the burden of having to recalculate your ERA and WHIP after drafting each pitcher.
The key aspect fueling the wait-on-pitching philosophy is that, in the past, there was quality pitching available later in drafts or cheaper in auctions, provided you understood how to use the aforementioned advanced metrics to properly rank and price pitchers. And to be honest, if you did, you were in the minority. The vast majority of those providing rankings and prices for the masses were still focusing on surface stats such as ERA and were thus producing rankings based on what has happened, not what is most likely to happen. The savvy owner knew who to avoid early and who to target late, with the outcome being a competitive staff.
The problem is now the information disseminators have for the most part caught up with the advanced metrics, and the rankings and prices are better. This means you can no longer pick up a 12th-rounder to act as your staff ace. Quality pitchers that used to be around in the late rounds in past years are now drafted much earlier. Good-upside hurlers who used to be put on reserve are now scooped up in the latter portion of the draft. Arms that emerge in-season have to be scooped up quickly. In short, in most savvy leagues, you can no longer get quality pitching cheap.
Another misnomer factoring into the new pitching landscape is the falsehood that you can wait because pitching is so deep. Keep in mind everything is relative. The projected ERA and WHIP of the lower-tier pitchers may appear to be better, but the impact it will have to your fantasy team is the same. The 50th best pitcher is still the 50th best pitcher. His stats may be improved from five years ago, but his influence on the standings is the same. Too many myopically see the lower ERA and WHIP versus past years and conclude that pitching is deeper, thus you can wait. This simply is not the case.
The best way to make sure you have a quality pitching staff is decide what you want your target ERA to be and construct roadmaps that lead to that result. The manner to accomplish this is to target pitchers within defined tiers and to pounce on them when that tier is being drafted. The wrong approach is to have a preset round in which you will select your initial pitcher. In other words, draft the pitcher, not the round.
We're going to focus on ERA and let WHIP and strikeouts come along for the ride. It will be shown that if you follow the guidelines with ERA, your WHIP will place you in the same relative spot in the category, while the strikeouts afford you a solid foundation from which to build. The main reason for this is the less distraction you have during the draft, the better. You don't have to have a calculator or laptop with you to keep track of your ERA and WHIP. If you can count to 30, you're in business.
Using standard 10-team ESPN leagues as our model, an ERA between 3.32 and 3.40 should put you in a position to earn eight of the 10 category points. Of course there will be injuries and streaming of pitchers with favorable matchups during the season, which will alter the numbers, but aiming for a third-place finish in ERA and WHIP puts you in position to cleverly manage your team to the top of the category while still availing sufficient resources to build a competitive offense.
Our objective is to formulate several paths to end up with an ERA in the range of 3.32 to 3.40. The basis for this will be separating starting pitchers into tiers based on projected ERA. Each tier will be assigned an average ERA and innings pitched based on the members of each tier. The same will be done for closers. We'll then determine how many pitchers are necessary from each tier to end up with a team ERA between 3.20 and 3.40. Below is a table defining the tiers of starters and closers by ERA. Also included is the average number of pitchers that typically populates each tier (this can vary by projection source), the average innings thrown per pitcher within each tier, their average WHIP and average strikeouts. At the end is the number of points assigned per tier, which will be explained shortly.
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There will be 90 pitchers drafted in a standard ESPN league, with others put on reserve. Most teams average between two and three closers, which results in about 65 starters and 25 relievers being drafted. There are about 46 starters in the first three tiers, so at minimum some pitchers in Tier 4 will be drafted. A fifth tier was included since it is possible to draft pitchers from that tier and still accomplish your goal. In leagues with more than 10 teams, it will be necessary to penetrate into the fifth tier which is another reason for its inclusion. The manner to adjust for different leagues will be described later.
The goal is to simplify the tracking of your team ERA. Using the points above, instead of tracking ERA, ultimately you'll track points, aiming for a predetermined target.
The math involved with what is about to be described is nothing more than a weighted average. Don't worry, you won't need to do the following during your draft, but you may need to before your draft to come up with the soon-to-be-discussed magic number.
Step One: For each pitcher drafted, multiple the average ERA and innings corresponding to their tier and add them up.
Step Two: Repeat Step One, but just sum up the innings.
Step Three: Divide Step One by Step Two to get your team ERA.
As an example, if you took a pitcher from tiers two and three, the math would be as follows:
Step One for Tier 2: 205 x 3.00 = 615
Step One for Tier 3: 190 x 3.50 = 665
Sum: 1280
Step Two: 205 + 190 = 395
Step Three: 1280 divided by 395 = 3.24
So your team ERA would be about 3.24. You do this for all nine active pitchers until you come up with a team ERA in the range of 3.32 to 3.40, as described above.
You know those cooking shows where they already have the dish almost finished in the oven right after they get done demonstrating the recipe? Well, here are some combinations of pitchers all yielding the target ERA. I mixed it up a bit, with some staffs having six starting pitchers and three closers and some going seven plus two. Some owners take a starter early, while some wait; it's the same with closers.
I then included what these owners can expect their ERAs, WHIP and K's to be. And finally, the "Points" row is from the table above, assigning point values for each player in that tier. Take a close look, because you'll see something consistent among each option.
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Check it out, each permutation totals 27 points. So instead of having to keep a running computation of your team ERA during your draft, all you need to do is track your pitchers using the tiered points system and end up with exactly 27 points. By doing so, you'll end up with an ERA in third place, right where you want it. And the beauty is your WHIP dovetails along, also putting you in third place. Strikeouts, however, are a spot below if you opt to go with three closers like in the first six examples. But using three closers should earn more points in saves. And of course, you can manage your staff in-season to pump up the strikeouts using favorable matchups.
There's something else very noteworthy about the above chart. In order to attain the desired ERA, it was necessary to take at least one pitcher in the top two tiers, or at least one of the top 18 starting pitchers. Depending on the flow of your draft, this may be earlier than you normally start building your staff. That said, it's possible to reach the target ERA starting in Tier 3. Here are some examples:
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Note how your target is now 25 and that you really must dedicate several consecutive picks to pitching to make sure you pick up what you need from tiers 3 and 4 before they are exhausted. It also requires that you take better closers than if you take a starting pitcher earlier. It also should be pointed out that while your ERA and WHIP are within the desired range, they are all more toward the high end. The take-home message is that it is indeed possible to wait on pitching and still construct a third-place staff, but it means really pounding on the middle tiers.
One of the assumptions made was the target was eight out of 10 points or third place. A very viable strategy is shooting for a spot (or two) lower in the standings and really focusing on your hitting. That said, this is not as easy as it used to be, as the amount of injuries has increased to the point where your ability to use brute force to pound up counting stats is much more easily curtailed via injury than in previous seasons. But if you want to lower your target in pitching, the magic number for fourth place is 29.
As always, nothing is ever quite as easy as it seems. Though each tier is designed so that the normal fluctuation of stats means anyone within each tier is as likely to sport an ERA at the high end than the low end, if you continually take pitchers at the bottom end of each tier, you run the risk of having a real team ERA higher than the weighted average would suggest.
In addition, you should make a note of which pitchers induce more ground balls than fly balls and aim to have an even split on that, too. This may seem counter-intuitive, as ground ball pitchers usually carry lower ERAs, but they also carry higher WHIPs due to the greater likelihood of a ground ball base hit than a fly ball landing safely. Keep in mind you're setting tiers via ERA, so their ground ball tendencies are already factored in there. But if you end up with a majority of groundball pitchers, you run the risk of a fourth-place WHIP.
The above example outlines the process for a specific league size. The beauty of this system is it translates to leagues of all sizes and shapes. There are ample pitchers in the five starting pitcher tiers used above to fill the mixed leagues up to 15 teams, especially since some speculative closers (or middle relievers) will be drafted. If you play in a deeper mixed league or a single-league format, you'll need to add another tier or two. The best thing to do is look for natural breaks and set the tiers at that point. The target ERA will be different, as will the magic number of pitcher-tier points.
But the end result is always the same: a staff constructed to afford you a competitive foundation without having to waste time tracking ERA and WHIP and instead allowing you to focus more on your next selection. Just don't wait too long before you make it a pitcher.
By Todd Zola | Mastersball.com
"There's no way! I'm not drafting Cole Hamels or Matt Cain early, let alone Justin Verlander, Clayton Kershaw or even Stephen Strasburg. I never take pitchers before the 10th round!" -- Fantasy baseball dinosaur.
Good luck with that.
Evaluating pitching via advanced metrics has become commonplace. Most fantasy enthusiasts realize that looking at ERA is no longer the best means to judge a pitcher. Instead, they compare the ERA to the xFIP and FIP. They know to observe how far the pitcher's BABIP, HR/FB or LOB% are from the league norm.
As such, the means to piece together a fantasy pitching staff has radically changed. Depending on your league format and rules, the adage "wait on pitching" is no longer universally viable. If savvy owners comprise your league, you have to draft pitching earlier than is previous seasons. Today, we are going to put the construction of a competitive fantasy pitching staff under the microscope and unveil a "paint by number" means of assembling a staff without the burden of having to recalculate your ERA and WHIP after drafting each pitcher.
The key aspect fueling the wait-on-pitching philosophy is that, in the past, there was quality pitching available later in drafts or cheaper in auctions, provided you understood how to use the aforementioned advanced metrics to properly rank and price pitchers. And to be honest, if you did, you were in the minority. The vast majority of those providing rankings and prices for the masses were still focusing on surface stats such as ERA and were thus producing rankings based on what has happened, not what is most likely to happen. The savvy owner knew who to avoid early and who to target late, with the outcome being a competitive staff.
The problem is now the information disseminators have for the most part caught up with the advanced metrics, and the rankings and prices are better. This means you can no longer pick up a 12th-rounder to act as your staff ace. Quality pitchers that used to be around in the late rounds in past years are now drafted much earlier. Good-upside hurlers who used to be put on reserve are now scooped up in the latter portion of the draft. Arms that emerge in-season have to be scooped up quickly. In short, in most savvy leagues, you can no longer get quality pitching cheap.
Another misnomer factoring into the new pitching landscape is the falsehood that you can wait because pitching is so deep. Keep in mind everything is relative. The projected ERA and WHIP of the lower-tier pitchers may appear to be better, but the impact it will have to your fantasy team is the same. The 50th best pitcher is still the 50th best pitcher. His stats may be improved from five years ago, but his influence on the standings is the same. Too many myopically see the lower ERA and WHIP versus past years and conclude that pitching is deeper, thus you can wait. This simply is not the case.
The best way to make sure you have a quality pitching staff is decide what you want your target ERA to be and construct roadmaps that lead to that result. The manner to accomplish this is to target pitchers within defined tiers and to pounce on them when that tier is being drafted. The wrong approach is to have a preset round in which you will select your initial pitcher. In other words, draft the pitcher, not the round.
We're going to focus on ERA and let WHIP and strikeouts come along for the ride. It will be shown that if you follow the guidelines with ERA, your WHIP will place you in the same relative spot in the category, while the strikeouts afford you a solid foundation from which to build. The main reason for this is the less distraction you have during the draft, the better. You don't have to have a calculator or laptop with you to keep track of your ERA and WHIP. If you can count to 30, you're in business.
Using standard 10-team ESPN leagues as our model, an ERA between 3.32 and 3.40 should put you in a position to earn eight of the 10 category points. Of course there will be injuries and streaming of pitchers with favorable matchups during the season, which will alter the numbers, but aiming for a third-place finish in ERA and WHIP puts you in position to cleverly manage your team to the top of the category while still availing sufficient resources to build a competitive offense.
Our objective is to formulate several paths to end up with an ERA in the range of 3.32 to 3.40. The basis for this will be separating starting pitchers into tiers based on projected ERA. Each tier will be assigned an average ERA and innings pitched based on the members of each tier. The same will be done for closers. We'll then determine how many pitchers are necessary from each tier to end up with a team ERA between 3.20 and 3.40. Below is a table defining the tiers of starters and closers by ERA. Also included is the average number of pitchers that typically populates each tier (this can vary by projection source), the average innings thrown per pitcher within each tier, their average WHIP and average strikeouts. At the end is the number of points assigned per tier, which will be explained shortly.
| Pitchers | ERA range | # in tier | Avg. IP | Avg. ERA | Avg. K | Avg. WHIP | Points |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tier 1 SP | < 2.70 | 3 | 225 | 2.75 | 240 | 1.03 | 1 |
| Tier 2 SP | 2.70 to 3.30 | 15 | 205 | 3.00 | 195 | 1.14 | 2 |
| Tier 3 SP | 3.30 to 3.60 | 28 | 190 | 3.50 | 165 | 1.23 | 3 |
| Tier 4 SP | 3.60 to 3.90 | 33 | 175 | 3.70 | 140 | 1.28 | 4 |
| Tier 5 SP | 3.90 to 4.20 | 32 | 170 | 4.00 | 130 | 1.31 | 5 |
| Tier 1 CL | < 2.50 | 5 | 75 | 2.20 | 65 | 1.04 | 1 |
| Tier 2 CL | 2.50 to 3.19 | 10 | 65 | 2.80 | 65 | 1.09 | 2 |
| Tier 3 CL | 3.10 to 3.50 | 15 | 60 | 3.40 | 60 | 1.20 | 3 |
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There will be 90 pitchers drafted in a standard ESPN league, with others put on reserve. Most teams average between two and three closers, which results in about 65 starters and 25 relievers being drafted. There are about 46 starters in the first three tiers, so at minimum some pitchers in Tier 4 will be drafted. A fifth tier was included since it is possible to draft pitchers from that tier and still accomplish your goal. In leagues with more than 10 teams, it will be necessary to penetrate into the fifth tier which is another reason for its inclusion. The manner to adjust for different leagues will be described later.
The goal is to simplify the tracking of your team ERA. Using the points above, instead of tracking ERA, ultimately you'll track points, aiming for a predetermined target.
The math involved with what is about to be described is nothing more than a weighted average. Don't worry, you won't need to do the following during your draft, but you may need to before your draft to come up with the soon-to-be-discussed magic number.
Step One: For each pitcher drafted, multiple the average ERA and innings corresponding to their tier and add them up.
Step Two: Repeat Step One, but just sum up the innings.
Step Three: Divide Step One by Step Two to get your team ERA.
As an example, if you took a pitcher from tiers two and three, the math would be as follows:
Step One for Tier 2: 205 x 3.00 = 615
Step One for Tier 3: 190 x 3.50 = 665
Sum: 1280
Step Two: 205 + 190 = 395
Step Three: 1280 divided by 395 = 3.24
So your team ERA would be about 3.24. You do this for all nine active pitchers until you come up with a team ERA in the range of 3.32 to 3.40, as described above.
You know those cooking shows where they already have the dish almost finished in the oven right after they get done demonstrating the recipe? Well, here are some combinations of pitchers all yielding the target ERA. I mixed it up a bit, with some staffs having six starting pitchers and three closers and some going seven plus two. Some owners take a starter early, while some wait; it's the same with closers.
I then included what these owners can expect their ERAs, WHIP and K's to be. And finally, the "Points" row is from the table above, assigning point values for each player in that tier. Take a close look, because you'll see something consistent among each option.
| Team 1 | Tm. 2 | Tm. 3 | Tm. 4 | Tm. 5 | Tm. 6 | Tm. 7 | Tm. 8 | Tm. 9 | Tm. 10 | Tm. 11 | Tm. 12 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tier 1 SP | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tier 2 SP | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 |
| Tier 3 SP | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 |
| Tier 4 SP | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 |
| Tier 5 SP | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
| Tier 1 CL | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Tier 2 CL | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Tier 3 CL | 1 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| ERA | 3.35 | 3.37 | 3.36 | 3.33 | 3.36 | 3.40 | 3.37 | 3.38 | 3.38 | 3.38 | 3.40 | 3.37 |
| WHIP | 1.20 | 1.21 | 1.20 | 1.19 | 1.19 | 1.22 | 1.21 | 1.21 | 1.21 | 1.21 | 1.22 | 1.21 |
| K | 1315 | 1320 | 1320 | 1335 | 1320 | 1305 | 1445 | 1450 | 1450 | 1455 | 1430 | 1440 |
| Points | 27 | 27 | 27 | 27 | 27 | 27 | 27 | 27 | 27 | 27 | 27 | 27 |
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Check it out, each permutation totals 27 points. So instead of having to keep a running computation of your team ERA during your draft, all you need to do is track your pitchers using the tiered points system and end up with exactly 27 points. By doing so, you'll end up with an ERA in third place, right where you want it. And the beauty is your WHIP dovetails along, also putting you in third place. Strikeouts, however, are a spot below if you opt to go with three closers like in the first six examples. But using three closers should earn more points in saves. And of course, you can manage your staff in-season to pump up the strikeouts using favorable matchups.
There's something else very noteworthy about the above chart. In order to attain the desired ERA, it was necessary to take at least one pitcher in the top two tiers, or at least one of the top 18 starting pitchers. Depending on the flow of your draft, this may be earlier than you normally start building your staff. That said, it's possible to reach the target ERA starting in Tier 3. Here are some examples:
| 0.0 | Team 1 | Team 2 | Team 3 | Team 4 | Team 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tier 1 SP | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tier 2 SP | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tier 3 SP | 3 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 5 |
| Tier 4 SP | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 1 |
| Tier 5 SP | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tier 1 CL | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| Tier 2 CL | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| Tier 3 CL | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| ERA | 3.39 | 3.39 | 3.39 | 3.38 | 3.41 |
| WHIP | 1.22 | 1.22 | 1.22 | 1.22 | 1.21 |
| K | 1315 | 1315 | 1320 | 1310 | 1320 |
| Points | 25 | 25 | 25 | 25 | 25 |
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Note how your target is now 25 and that you really must dedicate several consecutive picks to pitching to make sure you pick up what you need from tiers 3 and 4 before they are exhausted. It also requires that you take better closers than if you take a starting pitcher earlier. It also should be pointed out that while your ERA and WHIP are within the desired range, they are all more toward the high end. The take-home message is that it is indeed possible to wait on pitching and still construct a third-place staff, but it means really pounding on the middle tiers.
One of the assumptions made was the target was eight out of 10 points or third place. A very viable strategy is shooting for a spot (or two) lower in the standings and really focusing on your hitting. That said, this is not as easy as it used to be, as the amount of injuries has increased to the point where your ability to use brute force to pound up counting stats is much more easily curtailed via injury than in previous seasons. But if you want to lower your target in pitching, the magic number for fourth place is 29.
As always, nothing is ever quite as easy as it seems. Though each tier is designed so that the normal fluctuation of stats means anyone within each tier is as likely to sport an ERA at the high end than the low end, if you continually take pitchers at the bottom end of each tier, you run the risk of having a real team ERA higher than the weighted average would suggest.
In addition, you should make a note of which pitchers induce more ground balls than fly balls and aim to have an even split on that, too. This may seem counter-intuitive, as ground ball pitchers usually carry lower ERAs, but they also carry higher WHIPs due to the greater likelihood of a ground ball base hit than a fly ball landing safely. Keep in mind you're setting tiers via ERA, so their ground ball tendencies are already factored in there. But if you end up with a majority of groundball pitchers, you run the risk of a fourth-place WHIP.
The above example outlines the process for a specific league size. The beauty of this system is it translates to leagues of all sizes and shapes. There are ample pitchers in the five starting pitcher tiers used above to fill the mixed leagues up to 15 teams, especially since some speculative closers (or middle relievers) will be drafted. If you play in a deeper mixed league or a single-league format, you'll need to add another tier or two. The best thing to do is look for natural breaks and set the tiers at that point. The target ERA will be different, as will the magic number of pitcher-tier points.
But the end result is always the same: a staff constructed to afford you a competitive foundation without having to waste time tracking ERA and WHIP and instead allowing you to focus more on your next selection. Just don't wait too long before you make it a pitcher.
2013 Sleepers and Busts
By Fantasy staff | ESPN.com
When it comes to sleepers and busts, it's all about value.
The best sleepers are simply players who vastly outperform their draft-day value. Meanwhile, the busts are those players who play significantly below their draft-day value. In many cases, finding the right sleepers and avoiding the appropriate busts at the draft can go a long way toward winning a title.
The baseline for draft-day value in this case is our ESPN Fantasy rankings. We arrive at these rankings via a consensus of our writers and editors, but that doesn't mean we're all in agreement with the final rankings. Thus our analysts provided their own sleepers and busts, in relation to those rankings.
We've asked a number of our analysts to provide one sleeper and one bust for each of the following positions: catcher, first base, second base, shortstop, third base, outfield, starting pitcher and relief pitcher. Our analysts then go deeper into a few of their sleeper and bust picks with a little explanation (ordered by position and then by average draft position, highest to lowest). In most cases, we're discussing draft strategy/rankings for ESPN's standard leagues (10-team mixed league, 22-man active roster, including one starting catcher and one utility player, plus a three-man bench), but the analysis is mostly applicable in deeper leagues. Note that each expert sent his lists separate of the others (i.e., with no knowledge of who the other people selected).
Our panel of analysts: Matthew Berry (MB), Tristan H. Cockcroft (THC), Shawn Cwalinski (SC), Brian Gramling (BG), Dave Hunter (DH), Eric Karabell (EK), AJ Mass (AJM), James Quintong (JQ), Mike Sheets (MS) and Todd Zola (TZ).
[h=3]Sleepers[/h]
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Salvador Perez, C, Royals: Stop elbowing me! Hey, move over; I was in this spot first! Ow, you're stepping on my toes! Yes, kids, it's getting a little crowded here on the Sal Perez bandwagon, but for good reason. High average, solid power, great contact rate, the Royals will be solid this year … Perez has a very legit shot to be a Joe Mauer-like producer this season, but 128 picks later. -- Matthew Berry
Jonathan Lucroy, C, Brewers: There's sure to be some hesitation in trusting Lucroy's modest 2012 gains because of the time he missed, but in his defense, his two-month absence was a total fluke. Hasn't everyone suffered the misfortune, at one time or another, of having his wife drop a suitcase on his hand? When healthy, Lucroy's stats revealed a contact rate bump of more than 8 percent, along with a significantly higher rate of hard contact (near-50 percent bump in well-hit average) and greater plate coverage. If you told me that, in a standard 10-team mixed league, I could forego every one of our top-10 catchers if promised Lucroy would be there in the 20th round, I'd say "Sign me up." And our ESPN live draft results suggest that's exactly what's happening with him. -- Tristan H. Cockcroft
John Jaso, C, A's: Jaso is definitely an asset in leagues that count on-base percentage, and he also has the skills to be a solid batting average contributor. It looks like he could get decent playing time (something that has been relatively lacking over the years), even though the A's have top prospect Derek Norris waiting in the wings. -- James Quintong
Freddie Freeman, 1B, Braves: Freeman was hampered by a burning sensation in his eyes last season and reportedly could barely see at times. Yet he still managed to hit a career-high 23 home runs as he also fought through a finger injury that made holding the bat difficult and likely played a part in his hitting .212 in September. An offseason workout regimen has him in the best shape of his career, so don't take your eyes off him. -- AJ Mass
Paul Konerko, 1B, White Sox: Really, Berry? A 37-year-old first baseman is your sleeper? Well, considering he's going in the 13th round, the answer is yes, really. Look, I get that he's old, and I get that his skills are declining. But there's a tendency to discount guys like him as uninteresting or boring, and there's still a lot of value here. As I mentioned in my 100 Facts column, of the first base-eligible players, only one has at least 25 home runs, 75 RBIs and a .298 average in each of the past three seasons. That would be Mr. Paul Konerko. You know he'll hit for a high average (which is rarer and rarer these days) and power. And while his upside is limited and he won't have a great runs total, he's money in the bank for basically a .300 average and 25-30 home runs. And when you see someone like Mark Teixeira going in the seventh round (six rounds ahead of Konerko), well, give me one more year of Konerko instead. -- Matthew Berry
Kendrys Morales, 1B, Mariners: It seems counter-intuitive to expect Morales to improve in Seattle, but I do expect him to be better this season. He's healthy right now, he's going to play every day, and Safeco Field's fences have been moved in. While we won't know the actual impact of the new fences until after he has played there a few seasons, the stadium that is the closest match to Safeco's new dimensions is U.S. Cellular Field, the home of the White Sox. I don't expect Morales to repeat what he did in 2009, but I do think he can hit 30 homers with a .280-plus batting average. Those are great numbers for a guy being taken in the 20th round. -- Shawn Cwalinski
Lance Berkman, 1B, Rangers: Berkman played in only 32 games last year due to knee issues and turned 37 in February, so I understand if you're skeptical. That skepticism, however, is why the Big Puma will be such a draft-day bargain. Remember, he's just one year removed from hitting .301 with 31 homers and 94 RBIs with the St. Louis Cardinals, and this season he'll play half his games in a hitters' park in Texas, where he'll bat third much of the time in one of baseball's best lineups. Health is still a concern, but serving as the Rangers' full-time DH should help him there. -- Mike Sheets
Brandon Belt, 1B, Giants: While Belt still will sit the occasional game so Buster Posey can relax over at first base, this is the year to get Belt in dynasty formats; his power potential is close to being realized. Belt already hits lefties well enough to deserve regular playing time, hitting five of his seven home runs in 2012 off them, and he had no issues with pitcher-friendly AT&T Park, hitting .315 there. This is a mature hitter with plate discipline who should see more playing time. Next year at this time, Belt will be ranked near fellow young first basemen such as Freddie Freeman and Anthony Rizzo. -- Eric Karabell
Daniel Murphy, 2B, Mets: He's a .292 career hitter just entering his prime at age 27, and he can be had in a fantasy draft on the cheap, especially following a recent injury setback (intercostal strain) that could scare off cautious owners. Murphy knows how to hit at Citi Field -- he's a career .308 hitter, with a .351 OBP, at his home field -- and he also batted .283 versus lefties last year, showing he can (and should) play every day. The Mets' lineup isn't exactly great, but there is upside with players such as Ike Davis and Lucas Duda, and Murphy should have no trouble scoring 80-plus runs if he rightfully bats second in the lineup. -- Brian Gramling
Kyle Seager, 3B, Mariners: Seager showed surprising power last season, hitting 20 homers, with five at home and 15 on the road. It's reasonable to assume a drop in road homers, but this should be offset by a rise in homers at Safeco Field since Seager should benefit from the fences being moved in and lowered. Seager makes good contact and is capable of a higher batting average than his 2012 mark (.259). He stroked an above-average number of line drives yet had a batting average on balls in play that was lower than league average. Lastly, like many young lefty hitters, Seager struggles against southpaws, sporting a pedestrian .658 OPS. But his contact against lefties is still solid, so he has a good chance of increasing his production in that regard. -- Todd Zola
Trevor Plouffe, 3B, Twins: If you like Pedro Alvarez but don't want to pay Pedro Alvarez prices, then Plouffe is the third baseman for you. In fact, he had 24 homers in 422 at-bats last season compared to Alvarez's 30 homers in 586 at-bats. Alvarez drew more walks, but Plouffe had a 12 percent better contact rate. All in all, Plouffe is being drafted 76 spots lower than Alvarez in ESPN live drafts, and if that wasn't bad enough, he's also being taken after Jeff Keppinger and Alex "I might not play at all this season … or ever again" Rodriguez. -- Shawn Cwalinski
Jed Lowrie, SS, A's: If the very first thing that comes to mind with Lowrie isn't either "injuries," "DL" or "Ouch, I strained my hamstring just thinking about him," then obviously you've never had the pleasure of owning him, or you're a fantasy rookie. But here's the truth: Lowrie's horrendous reputation in the health department actually does us a favor by scaring off enough folks that he'll sneak through at a deep discount at what is truly one of the weaker positions in fantasy. Between all the bumps, bruises and Acme safes that have fallen on him (stop chasing that Road Runner, Jed!), Lowrie has sported a walk rate better than 10 percent and fly ball rate greater than 50 percent in his career. He's a little Josh Reddick-/Brandon Moss-ish -- and I'd argue with the better discipline of the three -- and those two clubbed a combined 53 homers in 2012. -- Tristan H. Cockcroft
Josh Rutledge, SS/2B, Rockies: Sometimes you need to take a leap of faith, and if Rutledge wins and keeps the Rockies' second-base job, he has a chance for a 20-homer, 20-steal season hitting out of the two-hole. With Chris Nelson as the favorite to win the third-base gig, Rutledge just needs to beat out DJ LeMahieu, Jonathan Herrera and Reid Brignac. I like his chances. -- Todd Zola
Adam Eaton, OF, Diamondbacks: As soon as the Justin Upton trade to Atlanta was consummated, which opened up a starting role for Eaton, fantasy owners immediately became interested in Eaton's stolen base upside. A year ago, he swiped 38 bases at Triple-A Reno and hit .381 over 488 at-bats, and he flashed enough power to help there, too. Eaton likely won't hit quite that well in the big leagues, but he does have a patient approach and the potential for double-digit homers (he had 58 extra-base hits at Reno). Eaton's skill set will translate to the majors, and he's a far better value than fellow speedsters Angel Pagan, Brett Gardner and Coco Crisp. -- Eric Karabell
Andy Dirks, OF, Tigers: The Tigers will have arguably the best hitting lineup in the game this season, and I like Dirks to benefit from the hitters around him as he nets 400-plus at-bats. Dirks likely will start the season on the "good side" of a platoon (batting lefty versus most righties), but he did show in 2012 that he could hit lefties reasonably well, so he has an excellent chance of landing the left-field job full-time in Detroit. Consider him a late-round dark horse for a 20-homer season. -- Dave Hunter
Jeff Samardzija, SP, Cubs: The Cubs' Opening Day starter is primed for a monster season after the Cubs wisely limited him to less than 175 innings in his first year as a starter. He still struck out 180 batters in the limited duty and got stronger in the second half of the season, posting a 2.58 ERA, 1.02 WHIP and 9.8 K's/9 in his final 13 starts (after July 1). And check out his Wrigley Field numbers over the past two seasons: 9-5 record, 3.07 ERA, 1.19 WHIP and 10.2 K's/9. Samardzija has a classic pitcher's frame at 6-foot-5, 225 pounds and has never been injured in his career. I feel this 28-year-old is going to post ace-quality numbers for the next several seasons. -- Brian Gramling
Rick Porcello, SP, Tigers: There are a few signs that lead me to believe Porcello is ready to finally live up to his prospect hype of a few seasons ago, one of which is his improved velocity. Porcello also has increased his K/9 rate and LOB% in recent seasons, which means he's learning how to get out of jams more consistently, which in turn helps lower his ERA. Not that Porcello will ever be a strikeout king, but investing in him as a late-round flyer is a chance I'd take. -- Dave Hunter
Alex Cobb, SP, Rays: With James Shields now in Kansas City, Cobb gets his shot at securing a rotation spot this spring. The young right-hander showed good control (2.6 BB/9) in his time with the Rays last year, and his 9.6 K/9 rate over 228 innings between Double- and Triple-A suggests there's more strikeout potential in him (7.0 K/9 for the Rays in 2012). While he posted a respectable 4.03 ERA and 1.25 WHIP in 2012, he really started to shine over his final seven starts -- all of which came against offenses that ranked in the top half of baseball in runs scored -- going 5-2 with a 2.49 ERA and a 1.02 WHIP. The 25-year-old is going undrafted in most standard mixed leagues, so the profit potential here is substantial. -- Mike Sheets
[h=3]Busts[/h]
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Buster Posey, C, Giants: It's not that he isn't great. He is. He's a stud. He's all that and a bag of Girl Scout cookies. But I have to pick someone to be my busts, and frankly, I like all the catchers in the top five. So I picked Posey because of where you have to take him. In a two-catcher league or even a deep NL-only league, I don't mind paying a premium for him. But in an ESPN standard 10-team league, where you start just one catcher, him being a catcher isn't as big a benefit as it is in other leagues. I'd rather wait on catcher than use a second-round pick on someone who plays a risky position (in terms of injuries) and will no doubt have some batting-average regression. -- Matthew Berry
Mike Napoli, C, Red Sox: I thought we at ESPN Fantasy, with our No. 156 group rank of him, were excessively optimistic about Napoli, and then I saw his ADP in ESPN live drafts: 141.6?! Has no one noticed the richness of the catcher talent pool for 2013, particularly in 10-team mixed leagues? Napoli would need to approach 30 homers and 90 RBIs to be a top-five backstop this season, accounting for his batting average risk fueled by a rapidly increasing strikeout rate, and that's a huge leap to take considering the condition of his hips. He has avascular necrosis -- that's what Bo Jackson had back in the day -- in both joints, and I think the Red Sox sent us the clearest caution flag of all this winter when they shaved two years off his free-agent contract after learning of it. -- Tristan H. Cockcroft
Wilin Rosario, C, Rockies: Rosario has excellent power, no doubt. However, his contact rate is below average and he rarely takes a walk, which could lead to slumps, perhaps prolonged. Then consider the fact that Rosario allowed a whopping 21 passed balls in just 105 games behind the dish, and there is a strong possibility he loses playing time. If Rosario is not hitting home runs, he's not helping his team, because his defense is not going to keep him in the lineup. -- Todd Zola
Mark Trumbo, OF/1B, Angels: While it's easy to see the power Trumbo brings, pitchers had little trouble exploiting the holes in his swing over the final two months of 2012, when he hit .208 after Aug. 1 with 72 strikeouts. Trumbo's first two months, meanwhile, were fueled by an uncharacteristically high BABIP and good luck. It wouldn't be stunning to see him reach 30 home runs again, but he's a major batting average risk who could certainly lose playing time to the likes of Vernon Wells if he struggles again. -- Eric Karabell
Jason Kipnis: So which Kipnis will show up this year? Will it be the one who had 11 homers and 20 steals before the All-Star break in 2012, or the one who had a .650 OPS and just three homers after it? The answer could be somewhere in between, and while I like his overall potential as a power-speed combo guy, he is going a little too high for my taste, especially after that second-half drop-off. -- James Quintong
Aaron Hill, 2B, Diamondbacks: It's not that I don't like Hill -- I think he's a solid 25-homer candidate in 2013 -- but the inconsistency from season to season regarding his contact rate is bothersome. If you get shut out of a top-five second baseman this season and don't really need Hill's power, you're better off waiting for guys like Altuve, Utley or Espinosa in the later rounds than spending a seventh- or eighth-round pick on Hill. -- Dave Hunter
Will Middlebrooks, 3B, Red Sox: The numbers Middlebrooks put up last year were impressive, considering his limited number of at-bats, but don't expect his batting average to stay anywhere near the .288 he put up in 2012. There's a good chance for a sophomore regression considering the limited number of major league at-bats Middlebrooks has had in his young career. -- Dave Hunter
Elvis Andrus, SS, Rangers: With the departure of run-producing teammates Josh Hamilton and Mike Napoli, Andrus will be hard-pressed to score another 85 runs from the No. 2 hole in the Rangers' batting order. His production really tailed off last season, with a paltry 34 runs and five steals (on just nine attempts) in 75 games after the All-Star break. Andrus batted just .233 during his team's late-season slide after Sept. 1. And he's already a major hindrance in the power department, posting a total of eight homers over his past three seasons, spanning more than 450 games and 1,800 at-bats. -- Brian Gramling
Jose Bautista, OF, Blue Jays: My concern with Bautista is that he could suffer from a downtick in home run production after suffering a serious wrist injury last season. It takes just one bad swing to end a fantasy season, and with Bautista attempting to send every pitch into orbit, I can't help feeling a little skittish here. -- AJ Mass
Josh Hamilton, OF, Angels: As an Angels fan, I hope I'm dead wrong here. But health is always a concern with Hamilton, moving from Rangers Ballpark to Angel Stadium doesn't do him any favors, and there's a concern that there will be a mental letdown now that he has signed the big contract. We always say not to pay for a career year. Just because the Angels did doesn't mean you have to. If he's there in the third round, awesome. But as a top-16 pick? There are safer bets out there. -- Matthew Berry
More on Hamilton: A little risk in the first two rounds is fine, but Hamilton has too many negatives for me. He still has never had more than 500 at-bats in consecutive seasons, and last season he had more than 500. He is leaving one of the best hitters' parks in baseball for a slight pitchers' park. His contact rate dropped 10 percent last season. I see little difference between Hamilton and Matt Holliday, who is being taken 27 picks later in drafts. -- Shawn Cwalinski
Bryce Harper, OF, Nationals: Controversy! To stave off at least a few angry emails from Harper fans, I'll stress that I'm not at all a "Harper hater." After all, he is No. 62 overall in my personal ranks, 21 spots better than he finished 2012. But facts are facts: That rank is nowhere near our consensus rank (No. 37) or his current ADP (32.7). Those numbers suggest you have to pick him in the third round in order to guarantee he's yours for 2013. That's paying ceiling value, and in my opinion, that's foolish for a 20-year-old with all of 144 games of big league experience. A comparison point: Jason Heyward had .261-30-96 stats with 22 steals and 93 runs in 2012, numbers Harper could match but probably won't exceed, and Heyward still finished just 37th on our Player Rater. Take that chance if you wish, but my advice is, get back to me in a year, when Harper is much more likely to be that burgeoning top-25 fantasy player. -- Tristan H. Cockcroft
Carl Crawford, OF, Dodgers: Crawford used to be a fantastic fantasy option, but injuries have wrecked his career, and there's little indication that big numbers or even a full season of games are pending in 2013. Crawford played in only 31 games last season, and like the season before, he didn't show the ability to get on base. Over the past two seasons covering 161 games, Crawford has drawn 26 walks and fanned 126 times. While his injured elbow, which still doesn't appear to be healed, surely affected his hitting, he wasn't stealing bases at a high rate, either. A move to the National League and Dodger Stadium isn't likely to make things better. Simply put, Crawford is not a fantasy starter anymore. -- Eric Karabell
Stephen Strasburg, SP, Nationals: This is not a prediction that Strasburg is going to have a bad season, only that he will fall short of the extremely lofty expectations some have for him (I've seen him ranked as a No. 1 starting pitcher). Even with an increase in 2013, Strasburg is still going to toss 20-30 fewer innings than Justin Verlander and Clayton Kershaw. This will reduce his strikeouts and the impact of his ratios. While it's true that Strasburg's strikeout rate is higher than the others, helping to counter the innings deficit, there is talk of Strasburg using his sinker more in an effort to be more efficient with his pitches. This should help get him deeper into games but likely will, in turn, lower his strikeouts. He's going to be good, no argument. It's just that he doesn't belong with the elite until he matches them in innings. -- Todd Zola
Jered Weaver, SP, Angels: Weaver's K/9 rate fall from 9.35 in 2010 to 7.56 in 2011 and then 6.77 in 2012. Combine that with a corresponding increase in line drives being hit off the Angels pitcher and we might be looking at a case in which good fortune may suddenly be in short supply for the starter. I'm not suggesting he'll finish the year with a losing record, but he could well end up closer to 14 wins than 20. -- AJ Mass
Zack Greinke, SP, Dodgers: I want to like Greinke, and all the "numbers" suggest that I should; his K/9, HR/9 and GB/FB rates all indicate he should be elite. But that's the problem: The sum of the parts is usually greater than the whole with Greinke. I call it "Nolasco-itis." For whatever reason, Greinke just doesn't produce the fantasy numbers his peripheral numbers suggest he should. It's not like I expect him to be bad, I just don't think he'll be a top-10 starter. -- Shawn Cwalinski
CC Sabathia, SP, Yankees: With all the mileage Sabathia has put on his arm over the years, I wonder when he's going to have that real breakdown or major injury that knocks him out for a long stretch of time. The multiple DL stints he had last year don't make me feel confident about him for this season. And with the Yankees' lineup being a bit less potent this year than in recent years, he might not be as much of a lock for 15-18 wins as he used to be. -- James Quintong
Josh Johnson, SP, Blue Jays: Johnson started 30 games last year for the first time since 2009, but that's pretty much where the positives end. While his overall stat line looked decent, his velocity continued to decline (his average fastball was 94.9 mph in 2010 and 92.8 mph last year), his strikeout rate continued to plummet (9.1 K/9 in 2010, 7.8 K/9 last year), his walk rate continued to escalate (2.4 BB/9 in 2010, 3.1 BB/9 last year), and he struggled when pitching away from pitcher-friendly Marlins Park (4.94 ERA, 1.44 WHIP). The right-hander finished just 67th among starting pitchers on the ESPN Player Rater and flashed almost none of the elite upside that once made him an intriguing fantasy option. Now Johnson moves to a hitter-friendly environment in Toronto, and to the AL East? I think I'll pass. -- Mike Sheets
Joel Hanrahan, RP, Red Sox: Hanrahan's 76 saves over the past two seasons are the fifth-most in baseball, but that doesn't mean the former Pirates is a safe fantasy option for this season. Despite 36 saves and a 2.72 ERA in 2012, the Hanrahan's walk rate ballooned to 5.3 (including 6.3 BB/9 after the All-Star break), and his 45.1 fly ball percentage was a career high. That's a dangerous combination for a guy being drafted as a top-10 closer. And it could really be detrimental in Fenway Park, which ranked in the top 10 in home runs last year, according to ESPN Park Factors (PNC Park, by comparison, ranked 27th). While Andrew Bailey might not be the picture of health, he does give the Red Sox a viable alternative in the ninth inning should Hanrahan's control issues undo him this season. -- Mike Sheets
John Axford, RP, Brewers: Axford was a mess last season, posting a league-worst nine blown saves and walking 39 batters in 69 1/3 innings. His ERA more than doubled from 2011, and his WHIP ballooned from 1.14 to 1.44. Axford also served up seven homers in 39 innings at Miller Park, leading to a 5.31 ERA there. Fantasy owners tend to overrate strikeouts from closers, but his projected 90 strikeouts is only 20 more than average of the top 33 relievers in the ESPN.com rankings. It's not worth chasing those 20 K's to suffer the ERA and WHIP damage that Axford will cause a fantasy staff. -- Brian Gramling
By Fantasy staff | ESPN.com
When it comes to sleepers and busts, it's all about value.
The best sleepers are simply players who vastly outperform their draft-day value. Meanwhile, the busts are those players who play significantly below their draft-day value. In many cases, finding the right sleepers and avoiding the appropriate busts at the draft can go a long way toward winning a title.
The baseline for draft-day value in this case is our ESPN Fantasy rankings. We arrive at these rankings via a consensus of our writers and editors, but that doesn't mean we're all in agreement with the final rankings. Thus our analysts provided their own sleepers and busts, in relation to those rankings.
We've asked a number of our analysts to provide one sleeper and one bust for each of the following positions: catcher, first base, second base, shortstop, third base, outfield, starting pitcher and relief pitcher. Our analysts then go deeper into a few of their sleeper and bust picks with a little explanation (ordered by position and then by average draft position, highest to lowest). In most cases, we're discussing draft strategy/rankings for ESPN's standard leagues (10-team mixed league, 22-man active roster, including one starting catcher and one utility player, plus a three-man bench), but the analysis is mostly applicable in deeper leagues. Note that each expert sent his lists separate of the others (i.e., with no knowledge of who the other people selected).
Our panel of analysts: Matthew Berry (MB), Tristan H. Cockcroft (THC), Shawn Cwalinski (SC), Brian Gramling (BG), Dave Hunter (DH), Eric Karabell (EK), AJ Mass (AJM), James Quintong (JQ), Mike Sheets (MS) and Todd Zola (TZ).
[h=3]Sleepers[/h]
| C | 1B | 2B | 3B | SS | OF | SP | RP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MB | Salvador Perez | Paul Konerko | Jedd Gyorko | Pedro Alvarez | Jean Segura | Cameron Maybin | Jeff Samardzija | Jason Grilli |
| THC | Jonathan Lucroy | Brandon Belt | Jedd Gyorko | Kyle Seager | Jed Lowrie | Leonys Martin | Chris Tillman | Glen Perkins |
| SC | Jonathan Lucroy | Kendrys Morales | Omar Infante | Trevor Plouffe | Josh Rutledge | Michael Saunders | Alex Cobb | Casey Janssen |
| BG | Ryan Doumit | Adam LaRoche | Daniel Murphy | Manny Machado | Andrelton Simmons | Mark Trumbo | Jeff Samardzija | Huston Street |
| DH | Derek Norris | Lance Berkman | Jedd Gyorko | Todd Frazier | Josh Rutledge | Andy Dirks | Rick Porcello | David Phelps |
| EK | Salvador Perez | Brandon Belt | Chase Utley | Manny Machado | Jean Segura | Adam Eaton | Brett Anderson | Sergio Romo |
| AJM | Wilin Rosario | Freddie Freeman | Jose Altuve | Kyle Seager | Alcides Escobar | Josh Reddick | Wade Miley | Ryan Cook |
| JQ | John Jaso | Lance Berkman | Daniel Murphy | Lonnie Chisenhall | Josh Rutledge | Adam Eaton | Josh Beckett | Tyler Clippard |
| MS | Salvador Perez | Lance Berkman | Jedd Gyorko | Manny Machado | Josh Rutledge | Adam Eaton | Alex Cobb | Jason Grilli |
| TZ | Alex Avila | Chris Parmelee | Dustin Ackley | Kyle Seager | Josh Rutledge | Justin Maxwell | Alex Cobb | Tom Wilhelmsen |
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Salvador Perez, C, Royals: Stop elbowing me! Hey, move over; I was in this spot first! Ow, you're stepping on my toes! Yes, kids, it's getting a little crowded here on the Sal Perez bandwagon, but for good reason. High average, solid power, great contact rate, the Royals will be solid this year … Perez has a very legit shot to be a Joe Mauer-like producer this season, but 128 picks later. -- Matthew Berry
Jonathan Lucroy, C, Brewers: There's sure to be some hesitation in trusting Lucroy's modest 2012 gains because of the time he missed, but in his defense, his two-month absence was a total fluke. Hasn't everyone suffered the misfortune, at one time or another, of having his wife drop a suitcase on his hand? When healthy, Lucroy's stats revealed a contact rate bump of more than 8 percent, along with a significantly higher rate of hard contact (near-50 percent bump in well-hit average) and greater plate coverage. If you told me that, in a standard 10-team mixed league, I could forego every one of our top-10 catchers if promised Lucroy would be there in the 20th round, I'd say "Sign me up." And our ESPN live draft results suggest that's exactly what's happening with him. -- Tristan H. Cockcroft
John Jaso, C, A's: Jaso is definitely an asset in leagues that count on-base percentage, and he also has the skills to be a solid batting average contributor. It looks like he could get decent playing time (something that has been relatively lacking over the years), even though the A's have top prospect Derek Norris waiting in the wings. -- James Quintong
Freddie Freeman, 1B, Braves: Freeman was hampered by a burning sensation in his eyes last season and reportedly could barely see at times. Yet he still managed to hit a career-high 23 home runs as he also fought through a finger injury that made holding the bat difficult and likely played a part in his hitting .212 in September. An offseason workout regimen has him in the best shape of his career, so don't take your eyes off him. -- AJ Mass
Paul Konerko, 1B, White Sox: Really, Berry? A 37-year-old first baseman is your sleeper? Well, considering he's going in the 13th round, the answer is yes, really. Look, I get that he's old, and I get that his skills are declining. But there's a tendency to discount guys like him as uninteresting or boring, and there's still a lot of value here. As I mentioned in my 100 Facts column, of the first base-eligible players, only one has at least 25 home runs, 75 RBIs and a .298 average in each of the past three seasons. That would be Mr. Paul Konerko. You know he'll hit for a high average (which is rarer and rarer these days) and power. And while his upside is limited and he won't have a great runs total, he's money in the bank for basically a .300 average and 25-30 home runs. And when you see someone like Mark Teixeira going in the seventh round (six rounds ahead of Konerko), well, give me one more year of Konerko instead. -- Matthew Berry
Kendrys Morales, 1B, Mariners: It seems counter-intuitive to expect Morales to improve in Seattle, but I do expect him to be better this season. He's healthy right now, he's going to play every day, and Safeco Field's fences have been moved in. While we won't know the actual impact of the new fences until after he has played there a few seasons, the stadium that is the closest match to Safeco's new dimensions is U.S. Cellular Field, the home of the White Sox. I don't expect Morales to repeat what he did in 2009, but I do think he can hit 30 homers with a .280-plus batting average. Those are great numbers for a guy being taken in the 20th round. -- Shawn Cwalinski
Lance Berkman, 1B, Rangers: Berkman played in only 32 games last year due to knee issues and turned 37 in February, so I understand if you're skeptical. That skepticism, however, is why the Big Puma will be such a draft-day bargain. Remember, he's just one year removed from hitting .301 with 31 homers and 94 RBIs with the St. Louis Cardinals, and this season he'll play half his games in a hitters' park in Texas, where he'll bat third much of the time in one of baseball's best lineups. Health is still a concern, but serving as the Rangers' full-time DH should help him there. -- Mike Sheets
Brandon Belt, 1B, Giants: While Belt still will sit the occasional game so Buster Posey can relax over at first base, this is the year to get Belt in dynasty formats; his power potential is close to being realized. Belt already hits lefties well enough to deserve regular playing time, hitting five of his seven home runs in 2012 off them, and he had no issues with pitcher-friendly AT&T Park, hitting .315 there. This is a mature hitter with plate discipline who should see more playing time. Next year at this time, Belt will be ranked near fellow young first basemen such as Freddie Freeman and Anthony Rizzo. -- Eric Karabell
Daniel Murphy, 2B, Mets: He's a .292 career hitter just entering his prime at age 27, and he can be had in a fantasy draft on the cheap, especially following a recent injury setback (intercostal strain) that could scare off cautious owners. Murphy knows how to hit at Citi Field -- he's a career .308 hitter, with a .351 OBP, at his home field -- and he also batted .283 versus lefties last year, showing he can (and should) play every day. The Mets' lineup isn't exactly great, but there is upside with players such as Ike Davis and Lucas Duda, and Murphy should have no trouble scoring 80-plus runs if he rightfully bats second in the lineup. -- Brian Gramling
Kyle Seager, 3B, Mariners: Seager showed surprising power last season, hitting 20 homers, with five at home and 15 on the road. It's reasonable to assume a drop in road homers, but this should be offset by a rise in homers at Safeco Field since Seager should benefit from the fences being moved in and lowered. Seager makes good contact and is capable of a higher batting average than his 2012 mark (.259). He stroked an above-average number of line drives yet had a batting average on balls in play that was lower than league average. Lastly, like many young lefty hitters, Seager struggles against southpaws, sporting a pedestrian .658 OPS. But his contact against lefties is still solid, so he has a good chance of increasing his production in that regard. -- Todd Zola
Trevor Plouffe, 3B, Twins: If you like Pedro Alvarez but don't want to pay Pedro Alvarez prices, then Plouffe is the third baseman for you. In fact, he had 24 homers in 422 at-bats last season compared to Alvarez's 30 homers in 586 at-bats. Alvarez drew more walks, but Plouffe had a 12 percent better contact rate. All in all, Plouffe is being drafted 76 spots lower than Alvarez in ESPN live drafts, and if that wasn't bad enough, he's also being taken after Jeff Keppinger and Alex "I might not play at all this season … or ever again" Rodriguez. -- Shawn Cwalinski
Jed Lowrie, SS, A's: If the very first thing that comes to mind with Lowrie isn't either "injuries," "DL" or "Ouch, I strained my hamstring just thinking about him," then obviously you've never had the pleasure of owning him, or you're a fantasy rookie. But here's the truth: Lowrie's horrendous reputation in the health department actually does us a favor by scaring off enough folks that he'll sneak through at a deep discount at what is truly one of the weaker positions in fantasy. Between all the bumps, bruises and Acme safes that have fallen on him (stop chasing that Road Runner, Jed!), Lowrie has sported a walk rate better than 10 percent and fly ball rate greater than 50 percent in his career. He's a little Josh Reddick-/Brandon Moss-ish -- and I'd argue with the better discipline of the three -- and those two clubbed a combined 53 homers in 2012. -- Tristan H. Cockcroft
Josh Rutledge, SS/2B, Rockies: Sometimes you need to take a leap of faith, and if Rutledge wins and keeps the Rockies' second-base job, he has a chance for a 20-homer, 20-steal season hitting out of the two-hole. With Chris Nelson as the favorite to win the third-base gig, Rutledge just needs to beat out DJ LeMahieu, Jonathan Herrera and Reid Brignac. I like his chances. -- Todd Zola
Adam Eaton, OF, Diamondbacks: As soon as the Justin Upton trade to Atlanta was consummated, which opened up a starting role for Eaton, fantasy owners immediately became interested in Eaton's stolen base upside. A year ago, he swiped 38 bases at Triple-A Reno and hit .381 over 488 at-bats, and he flashed enough power to help there, too. Eaton likely won't hit quite that well in the big leagues, but he does have a patient approach and the potential for double-digit homers (he had 58 extra-base hits at Reno). Eaton's skill set will translate to the majors, and he's a far better value than fellow speedsters Angel Pagan, Brett Gardner and Coco Crisp. -- Eric Karabell
Andy Dirks, OF, Tigers: The Tigers will have arguably the best hitting lineup in the game this season, and I like Dirks to benefit from the hitters around him as he nets 400-plus at-bats. Dirks likely will start the season on the "good side" of a platoon (batting lefty versus most righties), but he did show in 2012 that he could hit lefties reasonably well, so he has an excellent chance of landing the left-field job full-time in Detroit. Consider him a late-round dark horse for a 20-homer season. -- Dave Hunter
Jeff Samardzija, SP, Cubs: The Cubs' Opening Day starter is primed for a monster season after the Cubs wisely limited him to less than 175 innings in his first year as a starter. He still struck out 180 batters in the limited duty and got stronger in the second half of the season, posting a 2.58 ERA, 1.02 WHIP and 9.8 K's/9 in his final 13 starts (after July 1). And check out his Wrigley Field numbers over the past two seasons: 9-5 record, 3.07 ERA, 1.19 WHIP and 10.2 K's/9. Samardzija has a classic pitcher's frame at 6-foot-5, 225 pounds and has never been injured in his career. I feel this 28-year-old is going to post ace-quality numbers for the next several seasons. -- Brian Gramling
Rick Porcello, SP, Tigers: There are a few signs that lead me to believe Porcello is ready to finally live up to his prospect hype of a few seasons ago, one of which is his improved velocity. Porcello also has increased his K/9 rate and LOB% in recent seasons, which means he's learning how to get out of jams more consistently, which in turn helps lower his ERA. Not that Porcello will ever be a strikeout king, but investing in him as a late-round flyer is a chance I'd take. -- Dave Hunter
Alex Cobb, SP, Rays: With James Shields now in Kansas City, Cobb gets his shot at securing a rotation spot this spring. The young right-hander showed good control (2.6 BB/9) in his time with the Rays last year, and his 9.6 K/9 rate over 228 innings between Double- and Triple-A suggests there's more strikeout potential in him (7.0 K/9 for the Rays in 2012). While he posted a respectable 4.03 ERA and 1.25 WHIP in 2012, he really started to shine over his final seven starts -- all of which came against offenses that ranked in the top half of baseball in runs scored -- going 5-2 with a 2.49 ERA and a 1.02 WHIP. The 25-year-old is going undrafted in most standard mixed leagues, so the profit potential here is substantial. -- Mike Sheets
[h=3]Busts[/h]
| C | 1B | 2B | 3B | SS | OF | SP | RP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MB | Buster Posey | Mark Teixeira | Chase Utley | Chase Headley | Derek Jeter | Josh Hamilton | James Shields | John Axford |
| THC | Mike Napoli | Paul Konerko | Danny Espinosa | Aramis Ramirez | Derek Jeter | Bryce Harper | CC Sabathia | Joel Hanrahan |
| SC | Victor Martinez | Mark Teixeira | Jason Kipnis | Chase Headley | Elvis Andrus | Josh Hamilton | Zack Greinke | Joel Hanrahan |
| BG | Mike Napoli | Mark Teixeira | Aaron Hill | Pablo Sandoval | Elvis Andrus | Torii Hunter | Mat Latos | John Axford |
| DH | Buster Posey | Anthony Rizzo | Aaron Hill | Will Middlebrooks | Alcides Escobar | Bryce Harper | Gio Gonzalez | Fernando Rodney |
| EK | Wilin Rosario | Mark Trumbo | Danny Espinosa | Todd Frazier | Derek Jeter | Carl Crawford | Wade Miley | Joel Hanrahan |
| AJM | Victor Martinez | Allen Craig | Ben Zobrist | Aramis Ramirez | Jimmy Rollins | Jose Bautista | Jered Weaver | Fernando Rodney |
| JQ | Mike Napoli | Edwin Encarnacion | Jason Kipnis | Chase Headley | Elvis Andrus | Carlos Gomez | CC Sabathia | Joel Hanrahan |
| MS | Mike Napoli | Albert Pujols | Dan Uggla | Chase Headley | Derek Jeter | Melky Cabrera | Josh Johnson | Joel Hanrahan |
| TZ | Wilin Rosario | Joey Votto | Robinson Cano | Will Middlebrooks | Ian Desmond | Andrew McCutchen | Stephen Strasburg | Jim Johnson |
<THEAD>
</THEAD><TBODY>
</TBODY>
Buster Posey, C, Giants: It's not that he isn't great. He is. He's a stud. He's all that and a bag of Girl Scout cookies. But I have to pick someone to be my busts, and frankly, I like all the catchers in the top five. So I picked Posey because of where you have to take him. In a two-catcher league or even a deep NL-only league, I don't mind paying a premium for him. But in an ESPN standard 10-team league, where you start just one catcher, him being a catcher isn't as big a benefit as it is in other leagues. I'd rather wait on catcher than use a second-round pick on someone who plays a risky position (in terms of injuries) and will no doubt have some batting-average regression. -- Matthew Berry
Mike Napoli, C, Red Sox: I thought we at ESPN Fantasy, with our No. 156 group rank of him, were excessively optimistic about Napoli, and then I saw his ADP in ESPN live drafts: 141.6?! Has no one noticed the richness of the catcher talent pool for 2013, particularly in 10-team mixed leagues? Napoli would need to approach 30 homers and 90 RBIs to be a top-five backstop this season, accounting for his batting average risk fueled by a rapidly increasing strikeout rate, and that's a huge leap to take considering the condition of his hips. He has avascular necrosis -- that's what Bo Jackson had back in the day -- in both joints, and I think the Red Sox sent us the clearest caution flag of all this winter when they shaved two years off his free-agent contract after learning of it. -- Tristan H. Cockcroft
Wilin Rosario, C, Rockies: Rosario has excellent power, no doubt. However, his contact rate is below average and he rarely takes a walk, which could lead to slumps, perhaps prolonged. Then consider the fact that Rosario allowed a whopping 21 passed balls in just 105 games behind the dish, and there is a strong possibility he loses playing time. If Rosario is not hitting home runs, he's not helping his team, because his defense is not going to keep him in the lineup. -- Todd Zola
Mark Trumbo, OF/1B, Angels: While it's easy to see the power Trumbo brings, pitchers had little trouble exploiting the holes in his swing over the final two months of 2012, when he hit .208 after Aug. 1 with 72 strikeouts. Trumbo's first two months, meanwhile, were fueled by an uncharacteristically high BABIP and good luck. It wouldn't be stunning to see him reach 30 home runs again, but he's a major batting average risk who could certainly lose playing time to the likes of Vernon Wells if he struggles again. -- Eric Karabell
Jason Kipnis: So which Kipnis will show up this year? Will it be the one who had 11 homers and 20 steals before the All-Star break in 2012, or the one who had a .650 OPS and just three homers after it? The answer could be somewhere in between, and while I like his overall potential as a power-speed combo guy, he is going a little too high for my taste, especially after that second-half drop-off. -- James Quintong
Aaron Hill, 2B, Diamondbacks: It's not that I don't like Hill -- I think he's a solid 25-homer candidate in 2013 -- but the inconsistency from season to season regarding his contact rate is bothersome. If you get shut out of a top-five second baseman this season and don't really need Hill's power, you're better off waiting for guys like Altuve, Utley or Espinosa in the later rounds than spending a seventh- or eighth-round pick on Hill. -- Dave Hunter
Will Middlebrooks, 3B, Red Sox: The numbers Middlebrooks put up last year were impressive, considering his limited number of at-bats, but don't expect his batting average to stay anywhere near the .288 he put up in 2012. There's a good chance for a sophomore regression considering the limited number of major league at-bats Middlebrooks has had in his young career. -- Dave Hunter
Elvis Andrus, SS, Rangers: With the departure of run-producing teammates Josh Hamilton and Mike Napoli, Andrus will be hard-pressed to score another 85 runs from the No. 2 hole in the Rangers' batting order. His production really tailed off last season, with a paltry 34 runs and five steals (on just nine attempts) in 75 games after the All-Star break. Andrus batted just .233 during his team's late-season slide after Sept. 1. And he's already a major hindrance in the power department, posting a total of eight homers over his past three seasons, spanning more than 450 games and 1,800 at-bats. -- Brian Gramling
Jose Bautista, OF, Blue Jays: My concern with Bautista is that he could suffer from a downtick in home run production after suffering a serious wrist injury last season. It takes just one bad swing to end a fantasy season, and with Bautista attempting to send every pitch into orbit, I can't help feeling a little skittish here. -- AJ Mass
Josh Hamilton, OF, Angels: As an Angels fan, I hope I'm dead wrong here. But health is always a concern with Hamilton, moving from Rangers Ballpark to Angel Stadium doesn't do him any favors, and there's a concern that there will be a mental letdown now that he has signed the big contract. We always say not to pay for a career year. Just because the Angels did doesn't mean you have to. If he's there in the third round, awesome. But as a top-16 pick? There are safer bets out there. -- Matthew Berry
More on Hamilton: A little risk in the first two rounds is fine, but Hamilton has too many negatives for me. He still has never had more than 500 at-bats in consecutive seasons, and last season he had more than 500. He is leaving one of the best hitters' parks in baseball for a slight pitchers' park. His contact rate dropped 10 percent last season. I see little difference between Hamilton and Matt Holliday, who is being taken 27 picks later in drafts. -- Shawn Cwalinski
Bryce Harper, OF, Nationals: Controversy! To stave off at least a few angry emails from Harper fans, I'll stress that I'm not at all a "Harper hater." After all, he is No. 62 overall in my personal ranks, 21 spots better than he finished 2012. But facts are facts: That rank is nowhere near our consensus rank (No. 37) or his current ADP (32.7). Those numbers suggest you have to pick him in the third round in order to guarantee he's yours for 2013. That's paying ceiling value, and in my opinion, that's foolish for a 20-year-old with all of 144 games of big league experience. A comparison point: Jason Heyward had .261-30-96 stats with 22 steals and 93 runs in 2012, numbers Harper could match but probably won't exceed, and Heyward still finished just 37th on our Player Rater. Take that chance if you wish, but my advice is, get back to me in a year, when Harper is much more likely to be that burgeoning top-25 fantasy player. -- Tristan H. Cockcroft
Carl Crawford, OF, Dodgers: Crawford used to be a fantastic fantasy option, but injuries have wrecked his career, and there's little indication that big numbers or even a full season of games are pending in 2013. Crawford played in only 31 games last season, and like the season before, he didn't show the ability to get on base. Over the past two seasons covering 161 games, Crawford has drawn 26 walks and fanned 126 times. While his injured elbow, which still doesn't appear to be healed, surely affected his hitting, he wasn't stealing bases at a high rate, either. A move to the National League and Dodger Stadium isn't likely to make things better. Simply put, Crawford is not a fantasy starter anymore. -- Eric Karabell
Stephen Strasburg, SP, Nationals: This is not a prediction that Strasburg is going to have a bad season, only that he will fall short of the extremely lofty expectations some have for him (I've seen him ranked as a No. 1 starting pitcher). Even with an increase in 2013, Strasburg is still going to toss 20-30 fewer innings than Justin Verlander and Clayton Kershaw. This will reduce his strikeouts and the impact of his ratios. While it's true that Strasburg's strikeout rate is higher than the others, helping to counter the innings deficit, there is talk of Strasburg using his sinker more in an effort to be more efficient with his pitches. This should help get him deeper into games but likely will, in turn, lower his strikeouts. He's going to be good, no argument. It's just that he doesn't belong with the elite until he matches them in innings. -- Todd Zola
Jered Weaver, SP, Angels: Weaver's K/9 rate fall from 9.35 in 2010 to 7.56 in 2011 and then 6.77 in 2012. Combine that with a corresponding increase in line drives being hit off the Angels pitcher and we might be looking at a case in which good fortune may suddenly be in short supply for the starter. I'm not suggesting he'll finish the year with a losing record, but he could well end up closer to 14 wins than 20. -- AJ Mass
Zack Greinke, SP, Dodgers: I want to like Greinke, and all the "numbers" suggest that I should; his K/9, HR/9 and GB/FB rates all indicate he should be elite. But that's the problem: The sum of the parts is usually greater than the whole with Greinke. I call it "Nolasco-itis." For whatever reason, Greinke just doesn't produce the fantasy numbers his peripheral numbers suggest he should. It's not like I expect him to be bad, I just don't think he'll be a top-10 starter. -- Shawn Cwalinski
CC Sabathia, SP, Yankees: With all the mileage Sabathia has put on his arm over the years, I wonder when he's going to have that real breakdown or major injury that knocks him out for a long stretch of time. The multiple DL stints he had last year don't make me feel confident about him for this season. And with the Yankees' lineup being a bit less potent this year than in recent years, he might not be as much of a lock for 15-18 wins as he used to be. -- James Quintong
Josh Johnson, SP, Blue Jays: Johnson started 30 games last year for the first time since 2009, but that's pretty much where the positives end. While his overall stat line looked decent, his velocity continued to decline (his average fastball was 94.9 mph in 2010 and 92.8 mph last year), his strikeout rate continued to plummet (9.1 K/9 in 2010, 7.8 K/9 last year), his walk rate continued to escalate (2.4 BB/9 in 2010, 3.1 BB/9 last year), and he struggled when pitching away from pitcher-friendly Marlins Park (4.94 ERA, 1.44 WHIP). The right-hander finished just 67th among starting pitchers on the ESPN Player Rater and flashed almost none of the elite upside that once made him an intriguing fantasy option. Now Johnson moves to a hitter-friendly environment in Toronto, and to the AL East? I think I'll pass. -- Mike Sheets
Joel Hanrahan, RP, Red Sox: Hanrahan's 76 saves over the past two seasons are the fifth-most in baseball, but that doesn't mean the former Pirates is a safe fantasy option for this season. Despite 36 saves and a 2.72 ERA in 2012, the Hanrahan's walk rate ballooned to 5.3 (including 6.3 BB/9 after the All-Star break), and his 45.1 fly ball percentage was a career high. That's a dangerous combination for a guy being drafted as a top-10 closer. And it could really be detrimental in Fenway Park, which ranked in the top 10 in home runs last year, according to ESPN Park Factors (PNC Park, by comparison, ranked 27th). While Andrew Bailey might not be the picture of health, he does give the Red Sox a viable alternative in the ninth inning should Hanrahan's control issues undo him this season. -- Mike Sheets
John Axford, RP, Brewers: Axford was a mess last season, posting a league-worst nine blown saves and walking 39 batters in 69 1/3 innings. His ERA more than doubled from 2011, and his WHIP ballooned from 1.14 to 1.44. Axford also served up seven homers in 39 innings at Miller Park, leading to a 5.31 ERA there. Fantasy owners tend to overrate strikeouts from closers, but his projected 90 strikeouts is only 20 more than average of the top 33 relievers in the ESPN.com rankings. It's not worth chasing those 20 K's to suffer the ERA and WHIP damage that Axford will cause a fantasy staff. -- Brian Gramling
2013 NL-only LABR auction recap
Eric Karabell
Sometimes a fantasy owner simply needs to break away from comfortable strategies that have worked in the past to try something new. It might be difficult, might take some practice, but when I walked into the Arizona Republic building in downtown Phoenix for Sunday night's LABR (League of Alternative Baseball Reality) NL auction, I had already decided to switch things up, go with some fresh tactics. A year ago my team was a disaster. It started when my lone closer blew out his elbow days after the auction and didn't improve during the summer when most key offensive players underachieved and all the potential health risks seemed to get hurt.
So my team this season looks unlike teams I've constructed in the past, but that's OK. Fresh tactics, right? There are myriad ways to win a league, even one as deep as this, with 12 owners playing 5x5 using only NL players. I generally like to sit back in auctions and pounce on late-game bargains, but with this talented crew of wise, veterans from the fantasy industry, there's the risk of having little to purchase in the second half of the auction, as teams take shape. So I went aggressive. Really aggressive. And I really like it!
<OFFER></OFFER>
[h=3]Eric's 2013 NL-only LABR team[/h]C: Miguel Montero, ARI -- $18
C: Ryan Hanigan, CIN -- $1
1B: Brandon Belt, SF -- $16
2B: Brandon Phillips, CIN -- $23
SS: Jimmy Rollins, PHI -- $22
3B: David Freese, STL -- $17
CI: Taylor Green, MIL -- $2
MI: Brent Lillibridge, CHC -- $1
OF: Ryan Braun, MIL -- $40
OF: Domonic Brown, PHI -- $8
OF: Darin Ruf, PHI -- $2
OF: Brett Jackson, CHC -- $2
OF: Kirk Nieuwenhuis, NYM -- $2
UT: Tony Campana, ARI -- $1
P: Cole Hamels, PHI -- $26
P: Madison Bumgarner, SF -- $20
P: Tim Hudson, ATL -- $11
P: Bronson Arroyo, CIN -- $2
P: Clayton Richard, SD -- $2
P: Ted Lilly, LA -- $2
P: Kyle Kendrick, PHI -- $2
P: Jonathan Papelbon, PHI -- $20
P: Jason Motte, STL -- $20
Reserve: Gaby Sanchez, PIT; Aaron Harang, LA; Evan Gattis, ATL; Alexi Amarista, SD; Eric O'Flaherty, ATL; Marlon Byrd, NYM
My team is listed at right (the full story, participants, rosters are here). There were the three main goals I wanted to achieve.
Spend for safe, reliable closers: It wasn't merely because I was burned on Ryan Madson last season, and I realize I preach to never pay for saves, but in an NL-only format, the stakes are different. Rather than save token dollars (the cap is $260) on the likes of Jason Grilli, Brandon League and Bobby Parnell, none locks for large save totals, I targeted Jonathan Papelbon and Jason Motte, the Nos. 2 and 3 NL options after Craig Kimbrel, for $20 each. And that's precisely where the bidding ended. These are excellent closers and they'll provide great innings and strikeouts with little risk, and one will surely make top trade bait in August if needed.
Spend for starting pitching: It's never recommended to enter an auction with a preconceived split of how much to spend on hitting versus pitching. I cannot recall ever spending $100 on arms before, but it's irrelevant. It's about team construction, and in a deep league in which a common midseason practice is to add top middle relievers to save team ERA and WHIP, the elite 200-inning anchors are valuable. Cole Hamels, Madison Bumgarner and even Tim Hudson are worth it, though in retrospect with the inexpensive arms I got later, Hudson's money should have gone to an outfielder. Still, a year ago I had really bad luck with Chris Carpenter, Daniel Hudson and Jair Jurrjens, and this crew is more reliable, even the $2 fillers.
Target an anchor bat: I generally don't spend more than $25 on any players, opting for balance. In this league, however, it's been tough to get sleepers. On Sunday, outfielders Justin Ruggiano and Adam Eaton were high on my list, but they ended up going for $19 and $18, respectively. I was willing to go to $40 for the best player in the NL, safe in the knowledge top numbers are pending. I thought I'd end up with Justin Upton, or perhaps slip Bryce Harper through at $30, but I took Ryan Braun first. Harper ended up at $35, as did Upton and Carlos Gonzalez, while Matt Kemp and Giancarlo Stanton were $36. Overall, $40 for Braun works for me, and had other fantasy industry veterans in the room asking if I was OK, knowing how this strategy -- much of what I did on the night, really -- was new for me. In the end, others noted my team projected well enough to contend, barring massive injuries or underachievement, and that's all you can ask the first week of March.
After securing Braun, my first hitter, and half my pitchers, it was about filling in offensive gaps. I overspent on catcher Miguel Montero ($18), but wanted some production from this weak position, as only five of the top 15 backstops in ESPN live drafts are from the NL, and in LABR we need 24 of them active. I didn't necessarily have to have middle infielders Brandon Phillips and Jimmy Rollins, and it was not because those positions are scarce (because they're not), but they're reliable, veteran contributors for power and speed. You just have to spend more for the givens, as opposed to assuming unprovens like Josh Rutledge or Jean Segura will provide top numbers.
At first base, I was in on the Ryan Howard bidding, as I think he goes back to 30-plus home runs and 100 RBIs, and regret not extending the bidding when it stopped at $17. Otherwise, corner infielders went for a premium, like Freddie Freeman for $25. Brandon Belt for $16 could be a bargain, I suppose. I had spoken to Belt a few hours earlier at Scottsdale Stadium, blogged about it Tuesday, and am confident he can hit 15 home runs, steal 10 bases and be safer than Howard in batting average.
There's a Phillies-centric theme to the team, though other than Papelbon and Domonic Brown, it wasn't really planned. Nobody heads into an auction saying they have to get Kyle Kendrick, for example. I think Brown went for a good price. I can't say I would have gone to $10. It's only spring baseball, but he's taking walks, homered off a lefty the other day and seems more competent defensively. He really should get 500 at-bats and earn the $8 I spent. I don't expect much from the rest of the outfield, though Darin Ruf has 20-home run power, Tony Campana has 30-steal speed, and Brett Jackson will provide relevant totals of each someday. Kirk Nieuwenhuis and Marlon Byrd aren't special; they're Mets. But they were all cheap, and there's a good base of offensive numbers here, and pitching to deal.
Eric Karabell
Sometimes a fantasy owner simply needs to break away from comfortable strategies that have worked in the past to try something new. It might be difficult, might take some practice, but when I walked into the Arizona Republic building in downtown Phoenix for Sunday night's LABR (League of Alternative Baseball Reality) NL auction, I had already decided to switch things up, go with some fresh tactics. A year ago my team was a disaster. It started when my lone closer blew out his elbow days after the auction and didn't improve during the summer when most key offensive players underachieved and all the potential health risks seemed to get hurt.
So my team this season looks unlike teams I've constructed in the past, but that's OK. Fresh tactics, right? There are myriad ways to win a league, even one as deep as this, with 12 owners playing 5x5 using only NL players. I generally like to sit back in auctions and pounce on late-game bargains, but with this talented crew of wise, veterans from the fantasy industry, there's the risk of having little to purchase in the second half of the auction, as teams take shape. So I went aggressive. Really aggressive. And I really like it!
<OFFER></OFFER>
[h=3]Eric's 2013 NL-only LABR team[/h]C: Miguel Montero, ARI -- $18
C: Ryan Hanigan, CIN -- $1
1B: Brandon Belt, SF -- $16
2B: Brandon Phillips, CIN -- $23
SS: Jimmy Rollins, PHI -- $22
3B: David Freese, STL -- $17
CI: Taylor Green, MIL -- $2
MI: Brent Lillibridge, CHC -- $1
OF: Ryan Braun, MIL -- $40
OF: Domonic Brown, PHI -- $8
OF: Darin Ruf, PHI -- $2
OF: Brett Jackson, CHC -- $2
OF: Kirk Nieuwenhuis, NYM -- $2
UT: Tony Campana, ARI -- $1
P: Cole Hamels, PHI -- $26
P: Madison Bumgarner, SF -- $20
P: Tim Hudson, ATL -- $11
P: Bronson Arroyo, CIN -- $2
P: Clayton Richard, SD -- $2
P: Ted Lilly, LA -- $2
P: Kyle Kendrick, PHI -- $2
P: Jonathan Papelbon, PHI -- $20
P: Jason Motte, STL -- $20
Reserve: Gaby Sanchez, PIT; Aaron Harang, LA; Evan Gattis, ATL; Alexi Amarista, SD; Eric O'Flaherty, ATL; Marlon Byrd, NYM
My team is listed at right (the full story, participants, rosters are here). There were the three main goals I wanted to achieve.
Spend for safe, reliable closers: It wasn't merely because I was burned on Ryan Madson last season, and I realize I preach to never pay for saves, but in an NL-only format, the stakes are different. Rather than save token dollars (the cap is $260) on the likes of Jason Grilli, Brandon League and Bobby Parnell, none locks for large save totals, I targeted Jonathan Papelbon and Jason Motte, the Nos. 2 and 3 NL options after Craig Kimbrel, for $20 each. And that's precisely where the bidding ended. These are excellent closers and they'll provide great innings and strikeouts with little risk, and one will surely make top trade bait in August if needed.
Spend for starting pitching: It's never recommended to enter an auction with a preconceived split of how much to spend on hitting versus pitching. I cannot recall ever spending $100 on arms before, but it's irrelevant. It's about team construction, and in a deep league in which a common midseason practice is to add top middle relievers to save team ERA and WHIP, the elite 200-inning anchors are valuable. Cole Hamels, Madison Bumgarner and even Tim Hudson are worth it, though in retrospect with the inexpensive arms I got later, Hudson's money should have gone to an outfielder. Still, a year ago I had really bad luck with Chris Carpenter, Daniel Hudson and Jair Jurrjens, and this crew is more reliable, even the $2 fillers.
Target an anchor bat: I generally don't spend more than $25 on any players, opting for balance. In this league, however, it's been tough to get sleepers. On Sunday, outfielders Justin Ruggiano and Adam Eaton were high on my list, but they ended up going for $19 and $18, respectively. I was willing to go to $40 for the best player in the NL, safe in the knowledge top numbers are pending. I thought I'd end up with Justin Upton, or perhaps slip Bryce Harper through at $30, but I took Ryan Braun first. Harper ended up at $35, as did Upton and Carlos Gonzalez, while Matt Kemp and Giancarlo Stanton were $36. Overall, $40 for Braun works for me, and had other fantasy industry veterans in the room asking if I was OK, knowing how this strategy -- much of what I did on the night, really -- was new for me. In the end, others noted my team projected well enough to contend, barring massive injuries or underachievement, and that's all you can ask the first week of March.
After securing Braun, my first hitter, and half my pitchers, it was about filling in offensive gaps. I overspent on catcher Miguel Montero ($18), but wanted some production from this weak position, as only five of the top 15 backstops in ESPN live drafts are from the NL, and in LABR we need 24 of them active. I didn't necessarily have to have middle infielders Brandon Phillips and Jimmy Rollins, and it was not because those positions are scarce (because they're not), but they're reliable, veteran contributors for power and speed. You just have to spend more for the givens, as opposed to assuming unprovens like Josh Rutledge or Jean Segura will provide top numbers.
At first base, I was in on the Ryan Howard bidding, as I think he goes back to 30-plus home runs and 100 RBIs, and regret not extending the bidding when it stopped at $17. Otherwise, corner infielders went for a premium, like Freddie Freeman for $25. Brandon Belt for $16 could be a bargain, I suppose. I had spoken to Belt a few hours earlier at Scottsdale Stadium, blogged about it Tuesday, and am confident he can hit 15 home runs, steal 10 bases and be safer than Howard in batting average.
There's a Phillies-centric theme to the team, though other than Papelbon and Domonic Brown, it wasn't really planned. Nobody heads into an auction saying they have to get Kyle Kendrick, for example. I think Brown went for a good price. I can't say I would have gone to $10. It's only spring baseball, but he's taking walks, homered off a lefty the other day and seems more competent defensively. He really should get 500 at-bats and earn the $8 I spent. I don't expect much from the rest of the outfield, though Darin Ruf has 20-home run power, Tony Campana has 30-steal speed, and Brett Jackson will provide relevant totals of each someday. Kirk Nieuwenhuis and Marlon Byrd aren't special; they're Mets. But they were all cheap, and there's a good base of offensive numbers here, and pitching to deal.
Nats report: Zimmerman, Ramos, Haren
Stephania Bell
Nationals third baseman Ryan Zimmerman is acutely aware of how much his struggles with his right (throwing) shoulder affected him last season. The pain, which limited his hitting early on, and the restriction in his AC joint, which affected his ability to throw, were well known. The mental strain brought on by the situation was not as well-known but was equally difficult for Zimmerman.
"You're struggling in front of 50,000 fans," Zimmerman said. "As baseball players our place where we're comfortable is on the field. And then I wasn't. It's not something I had ever experienced before."
Zimmerman
Zimmerman first began experiencing discomfort in the shoulder last spring, but it was mild and intermittent and he didn't think much of it. The pain worsened during the season, and the first area of his game affected was his hitting. "I was compensating by guarding to avoid the pain," Zimmerman said, demonstrating how he would avoid fully extending on his swing so he could keep his shoulder back in close to his body. (Incidentally, that position retracts the shoulder blade, or scapula, which also controls the position of the AC joint.) Two early cortisone shots did not help, and as the season progressed, Zimmerman knew something needed to change because he had become, as he calls it, "an easy out."
"We tried one more shot in a slightly different location," Zimmerman said, "and there was an immediate difference." At that point, hitting was no longer painful, and that was evident in the form of his sudden turnaround at the plate. But throwing became a huge problem.
Zimmerman said he couldn't feel where his arm was supposed to be to make a throw. He demonstrated moving his arm to different release points, searching for the right spot in space to position himself to throw the ball. The pain was no longer an issue, but restriction in the joint limited his movement and he experienced a lack of control and coordination of his arm. His defensive play clearly suffered as a result and Zimmerman just tried to get through the season, even taking one more injection to help diffuse the pain.
He knew surgery in the postseason was inevitable, but he wasn't sure until the October procedure was complete what exactly was required. Initial MRIs had shown inflammation in the area, but an MRI arthrogram (in which dye is injected into the region to better enhance the image) taken just before surgery hinted at a larger rotator cuff concern. Thankfully, the cuff turned out to be fine and the bulk of the problem was limited to the AC joint. Zimmerman says his surgeon, Nationals team physician Wieme Douoguih, essentially cleaned up the area by shaving down the edges of the bone and creating more space in the joint.
Zimmerman noticed the new motion right away, even remarking that he felt a little loose, especially near the front of his collarbone (where it attaches to the sternum or chest). As a result of overcompensating for stiffness at the far end of the joint, near his shoulder, Zimmerman's body had found a way to get more motion at the near end, not necessarily desirable. "I felt a lot of clicking in the front," Zimmerman said, pointing toward the sternoclavicular (SC) joint. He was quick to add that once he began to regain strength around his chest, upper back and shoulder, that mobility and the "loose" sensation have subsided. The joint now feels completely normal.
There is no longer any pain like before, according to Zimmerman, although he does acknowledge that he still gets sore and he is still regaining his strength. Hitting is not an issue at all, and his throwing is improving as he works through a progressive throwing program. Zimmerman appreciates that manager Davey Johnson has allowed him to increase his activity at a gradual pace, recognizing there are 162 games in the regular season and spring training is long.
On Tuesday, Zimmerman threw across the diamond for the first time since surgery and looked like he had indeed found that natural release point once again. The look on his face after batting practice said plenty, but he summed it up in a single phrase. "There's a lot more to smile about this spring."
[h=3]Ramos returns behind the plate[/h]
Ramos
Since tearing the lateral meniscus and ACL in his right knee last May, Wilson Ramos has been on the long road to recovery, culminating in Tuesday's appearance -- his first since the injury -- behind home plate. Ramos has done all the requisite drills. He's blocked balls behind the plate, he's run the bases, he even added sliding just last week. But until this week, he had not functioned as a catcher in a game situation in nearly a year.
Ramos was clearly beaming when I spoke to him at his locker. Not only did he say he was "excited" about playing in a game at least five times, but the smile on his face conveyed how much he had been anticipating this moment. He acknowledged that today represented a big step. "It's not the same as blocking, bullpens," Ramos said, adding, "It's faster, you are more excited." He gestured with his hands and looked around as if he were scanning the field to make his point. "Thinking about plays, where the ball is coming from, where you need to throw ... it's more ... excited."
The play that sent Ramos to the DL for months was so seemingly minor; he still appeared bewildered that the result was so drastic. He leaned over casually to scoop up a ball when his knee collapsed. The next thing he knew, his season was over. After meniscal repair in June, Ramos underwent ACL reconstruction approximately six weeks later. The main focus in therapy initially, as is typical, was regaining motion. "Up and down, up and down with my knee," said Ramos. As he moved through the phases of rehab, he could feel his knee getting stronger but remained apprehensive about performing some of the higher-level drills.
"I was nervous about sliding," Ramos said, "because I always bend my right knee, not my left." But after he got through slide drills and realized he was fine, Ramos was eager to get back behind the plate. He says the power in his right leg is not quite the same as his left, but that is to be expected. So is the stiffness he still feels in the morning, which disappears as he warms up. The knee will continue to improve even after the regular season is underway.
Tuesday marked a major milestone for Ramos as he caught three innings, even if the opponent was a largely minor league Houston Astros squad. He moved freely behind the plate, blocking several balls by dropping to his knees without hesitation.
And that is a good reason to be excited.
[h=3]Haren gets in better shape[/h]
Haren
Dan Haren went on the DL for the first time in his career last season due to back stiffness. Despite his stoicism, the ailing back was clearly impacting his performance. He was able to return shortly after the 15-day minimum and remained relatively healthy across the remainder of the season, even if his results on the mound were somewhat inconsistent.
Haren stayed on a rehab program throughout the offseason, working several days a week with a physical therapist in California. He seemed to clearly grasp the importance of maintaining a combined strength and flexibility regimen to keep himself healthy going forward. "I like to understand what's going on," Haren said regarding why he took such an interest in the particulars of his rehab program. "Then I can report back to the [athletic] training staff what works and what doesn't."
He also recognized there was more to the issue than his spine.
"As you know, with back problems, you're not just treating the back, you're treating everything around it," Haren said. He worked on flexibility for his hips in particular. (His hip was said to be a reason some teams shied away from trading for him at the end of last season.) He also targeted core strengthening and he lost some weight. Most importantly, he says he feels great this spring and he intends to maintain his new regimen. Haren knows firsthand that regardless of how durable he has been, with age comes the risk of the wear and tear of the job catching up to the body. He's hopeful that his attention to his rehab and conditioning program will keep that at bay a while longer.
Stephania Bell
Nationals third baseman Ryan Zimmerman is acutely aware of how much his struggles with his right (throwing) shoulder affected him last season. The pain, which limited his hitting early on, and the restriction in his AC joint, which affected his ability to throw, were well known. The mental strain brought on by the situation was not as well-known but was equally difficult for Zimmerman.
"You're struggling in front of 50,000 fans," Zimmerman said. "As baseball players our place where we're comfortable is on the field. And then I wasn't. It's not something I had ever experienced before."
Zimmerman
Zimmerman first began experiencing discomfort in the shoulder last spring, but it was mild and intermittent and he didn't think much of it. The pain worsened during the season, and the first area of his game affected was his hitting. "I was compensating by guarding to avoid the pain," Zimmerman said, demonstrating how he would avoid fully extending on his swing so he could keep his shoulder back in close to his body. (Incidentally, that position retracts the shoulder blade, or scapula, which also controls the position of the AC joint.) Two early cortisone shots did not help, and as the season progressed, Zimmerman knew something needed to change because he had become, as he calls it, "an easy out."
"We tried one more shot in a slightly different location," Zimmerman said, "and there was an immediate difference." At that point, hitting was no longer painful, and that was evident in the form of his sudden turnaround at the plate. But throwing became a huge problem.
Zimmerman said he couldn't feel where his arm was supposed to be to make a throw. He demonstrated moving his arm to different release points, searching for the right spot in space to position himself to throw the ball. The pain was no longer an issue, but restriction in the joint limited his movement and he experienced a lack of control and coordination of his arm. His defensive play clearly suffered as a result and Zimmerman just tried to get through the season, even taking one more injection to help diffuse the pain.
He knew surgery in the postseason was inevitable, but he wasn't sure until the October procedure was complete what exactly was required. Initial MRIs had shown inflammation in the area, but an MRI arthrogram (in which dye is injected into the region to better enhance the image) taken just before surgery hinted at a larger rotator cuff concern. Thankfully, the cuff turned out to be fine and the bulk of the problem was limited to the AC joint. Zimmerman says his surgeon, Nationals team physician Wieme Douoguih, essentially cleaned up the area by shaving down the edges of the bone and creating more space in the joint.
Zimmerman noticed the new motion right away, even remarking that he felt a little loose, especially near the front of his collarbone (where it attaches to the sternum or chest). As a result of overcompensating for stiffness at the far end of the joint, near his shoulder, Zimmerman's body had found a way to get more motion at the near end, not necessarily desirable. "I felt a lot of clicking in the front," Zimmerman said, pointing toward the sternoclavicular (SC) joint. He was quick to add that once he began to regain strength around his chest, upper back and shoulder, that mobility and the "loose" sensation have subsided. The joint now feels completely normal.
There is no longer any pain like before, according to Zimmerman, although he does acknowledge that he still gets sore and he is still regaining his strength. Hitting is not an issue at all, and his throwing is improving as he works through a progressive throwing program. Zimmerman appreciates that manager Davey Johnson has allowed him to increase his activity at a gradual pace, recognizing there are 162 games in the regular season and spring training is long.
On Tuesday, Zimmerman threw across the diamond for the first time since surgery and looked like he had indeed found that natural release point once again. The look on his face after batting practice said plenty, but he summed it up in a single phrase. "There's a lot more to smile about this spring."
[h=3]Ramos returns behind the plate[/h]
Ramos
Since tearing the lateral meniscus and ACL in his right knee last May, Wilson Ramos has been on the long road to recovery, culminating in Tuesday's appearance -- his first since the injury -- behind home plate. Ramos has done all the requisite drills. He's blocked balls behind the plate, he's run the bases, he even added sliding just last week. But until this week, he had not functioned as a catcher in a game situation in nearly a year.
Ramos was clearly beaming when I spoke to him at his locker. Not only did he say he was "excited" about playing in a game at least five times, but the smile on his face conveyed how much he had been anticipating this moment. He acknowledged that today represented a big step. "It's not the same as blocking, bullpens," Ramos said, adding, "It's faster, you are more excited." He gestured with his hands and looked around as if he were scanning the field to make his point. "Thinking about plays, where the ball is coming from, where you need to throw ... it's more ... excited."
The play that sent Ramos to the DL for months was so seemingly minor; he still appeared bewildered that the result was so drastic. He leaned over casually to scoop up a ball when his knee collapsed. The next thing he knew, his season was over. After meniscal repair in June, Ramos underwent ACL reconstruction approximately six weeks later. The main focus in therapy initially, as is typical, was regaining motion. "Up and down, up and down with my knee," said Ramos. As he moved through the phases of rehab, he could feel his knee getting stronger but remained apprehensive about performing some of the higher-level drills.
"I was nervous about sliding," Ramos said, "because I always bend my right knee, not my left." But after he got through slide drills and realized he was fine, Ramos was eager to get back behind the plate. He says the power in his right leg is not quite the same as his left, but that is to be expected. So is the stiffness he still feels in the morning, which disappears as he warms up. The knee will continue to improve even after the regular season is underway.
Tuesday marked a major milestone for Ramos as he caught three innings, even if the opponent was a largely minor league Houston Astros squad. He moved freely behind the plate, blocking several balls by dropping to his knees without hesitation.
And that is a good reason to be excited.
[h=3]Haren gets in better shape[/h]
Haren
Dan Haren went on the DL for the first time in his career last season due to back stiffness. Despite his stoicism, the ailing back was clearly impacting his performance. He was able to return shortly after the 15-day minimum and remained relatively healthy across the remainder of the season, even if his results on the mound were somewhat inconsistent.
Haren stayed on a rehab program throughout the offseason, working several days a week with a physical therapist in California. He seemed to clearly grasp the importance of maintaining a combined strength and flexibility regimen to keep himself healthy going forward. "I like to understand what's going on," Haren said regarding why he took such an interest in the particulars of his rehab program. "Then I can report back to the [athletic] training staff what works and what doesn't."
He also recognized there was more to the issue than his spine.
"As you know, with back problems, you're not just treating the back, you're treating everything around it," Haren said. He worked on flexibility for his hips in particular. (His hip was said to be a reason some teams shied away from trading for him at the end of last season.) He also targeted core strengthening and he lost some weight. Most importantly, he says he feels great this spring and he intends to maintain his new regimen. Haren knows firsthand that regardless of how durable he has been, with age comes the risk of the wear and tear of the job catching up to the body. He's hopeful that his attention to his rehab and conditioning program will keep that at bay a while longer.
Mock Draft No. 2: 12-team league
By Brian Gramling | Special to ESPN.com
Most things in life are best in moderation, but when it comes to money, friends or mock drafts, you can never have enough. No matter how many mock drafts I've done, I always become a more knowledgeable fantasy leaguer after each and every mock draft.
We had already done a 10-team mock draft on Valentine's Day, so we decided to add two more ESPN.com experts for this version, giving us a lineup of Eric Karabell, Tristan H. Cockcroft, Matthew Berry, Dave Hunter, Tom Carpenter, Shawn Cwalinski, Todd Zola, Pierre Becquey, Keith Lipscomb, Brendan Roberts, James Quintong and myself.
Check out the positional breakdowns for the start of the mock:
Round 1: 4 CI, 2 MI, 5 OF, 0 C, 1 SP, 0 RP
Round 2: 4 CI, 2 MI, 4 OF, 1 C, 1 SP, 0 RP (counting Hanley Ramirez only as a third baseman)
Round 3: 2 CI, 2 MI, 4 OF, 0 C, 4 SP, 0 RP
Round 4: 3 CI, 2 MI, 4 OF, 0 C, 2 SP, 1 RP (counting Allen Craig only as an outfielder)
Round 5: 2 CI, 2 MI, 2 OF, 1 C, 5 SP, 0 RP
Rds.1-5: 15 CI, 10 MI, 19 OF, 2 C, 13 SP, 1 RP
I expected a few more top pitchers to be picked earlier, as only 13 starting pitchers for 12 teams were picked before the end of Round 5. The number didn't seem low to Roberts. "13 pitchers is probably about what I expected. We're normally a little light on pitchers early, but with 12 owners, there's a little more urgency there to get a good one." Quintong followed up by saying, "And there are some decent pitchers early on that were probably worth the investment, at the very least to anchor the staff." I was surprised that both top RP Craig Kimbrel and No. 2 catcher Yadier Molina were chosen among the top 60 in the experts' draft.
Round 6: 2 CI, 2 MI, 3 OF, 1 C, 4 SP, 0 RP
Round 7: 3 CI, 1 MI, 2 OF, 2 C, 3 SP, 1 RP (counting Carlos Santana and Joe Mauer only as catchers and Kris Medlen as a starting pitcher)
Round 8: 1 CI, 2 MI, 2 OF, 1 C, 6 SP, 0 RP (counting Martin Prado only as an outfielder and Aroldis Chapman as a starting pitcher)
Round 9: 1 CI*, 0 MI, 4 OF, 0 C, 4 SP, 3 RP (*David Ortiz who is DH only)
Round 10: 3 CI, 4 MI, 2 OF, 0 C, 1 SP, 2 RP
Rds.6-10: 10 CI, 9 MI, 13 OF, 4 C, 18 SP, 6 RP
The ongoing theme the draft was how long to wait on pitching. "I wish I had waited a little longer on pitching," said Cockcroft. "As the room tended to draft them later than ADP -- though that's not unusual for our group." The perceived lack of depth in the middle infield made some owners admittedly reach to secure a decent second baseman, shortstop, or both. Exactly two middle infielders were chosen in each of the first five rounds, but only five were taken in Rounds 6-9 before great panic set in for Round 10, when four more went. Outfielders and corner infielders remained steady throughout and the closer button was pushed in Round 9.
For each five-round tier below, I give my take on the biggest statistical gambles and bargains based solely on comparing a player's ranking in Average Draft Position (ADP rank) in the live ESPN.com drafts (through March 6) with where the player went in this mock draft. "Reaches" are players taken much earlier than their ADP ranking would suggest, and "Bargains" are players taken much later than their ADP ranking would suggest.
Our rosters consist of the same 22 starters (13 hitters, 9 pitchers) as the last Mock Draft, but with zero bench spots. ESPN standard 5x5 roto scoring is in effect. Below is how the draft unfolded. (You can click here for rosters by team).
[h=4]ROUND 1[/h]
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[h=4]ROUND 2[/h]
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[h=4]ROUND 3[/h]
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[h=4]ROUND 4[/h]
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[h=4]ROUND 5[/h]
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REACHES, Rounds 1-5
Allen Craig, OF/1B, St. Louis Cardinals (Mock: 39/ADP rank: 59): Zola drafted him as an outfielder, but picking the injury-prone Craig (missed 24 percent of his team's games in past five seasons) when both teammate Matt Holliday and Jay Bruce were available was surprising to say the least.
Ben Zobrist, SS/2B/OF, Tampa Bay Rays (42/57): Cwalinski had three hitters in his first three picks, and then got the best middle infielder on the board at the time with Zobrist. Obviously, Cwalinski felt he could hold off on pitching in the early rounds. Lipscomb sure didn't think Cwalinski was reaching by saying, "Wow. I was pegging Zobrist or Brandon Phillips at No. 43 and they both went. I really don't like MI this season." To which Berry confirmed, "Agree with Lipscomb on MI which is why I took Ian Kinsler and Jose Reyes in Rounds 2 and 3."
Austin Jackson, OF, Detroit Tigers (49/67): I think Jackson was picked a bit too high, but he's better than his 67th ADP rank. Cockcroft already had one third baseman, one starting pitcher and two outfielders when he made this pick, so he obviously wasn't enamored with anybody in the 1B, 2B or SS positions at this point and wanted to bolster his outfield. Cockcroft, who grabbed B.J. Upton with his previous pick at the No. 1 draft position, said, "I was torn between Jackson, Upton and Yoenis Cespedes for my two swing picks.
Jason Kipnis, 2B, Cleveland Indians (54/68): Cleveland product Lipscomb was chided with "homer" chants for this pick, but like Cwalinski's Zobrist pick a round before, Kipnis was the top second-bagger, and the group seemed to agree as only one other second baseman (Aaron Hill) was chosen before I took Jose Altuve to end Round 7.
Paul Goldschmidt, 1B, Arizona Diamondbacks (58/80): I didn't see this as a reach pick at all by Zola. Goldschmidt was clearly the best first baseman on the board, and the last of what I considered the second-tier of first sackers. You should not think Goldschmidt will last until 80th overall in your draft.
BARGAINS, Rounds 1-5
Josh Hamilton, Los Angeles Angels (Mock: 28/ADP rank: 16): Carpenter made a good pick here, but I don't think it was a steal. I'm very surprised to see that in the ADP world, Hamilton is going ahead of more reliable picks such as Justin Upton (13th in the mock), Adrian Beltre (15th) and Jose Bautista (17th), who Becquey predicts "will be a first-rounder again after this season. He leads the majors in home runs the past three seasons despite missing three months." I also like Evan Longoria (18th Mock, 22 ADP rank) more than Hamilton this season.
Felix Hernandez, Seattle Mariners (33/21): The sentiment in the draft room is still one of concern about the elbow of Hernandez, which caused the Mariners to push back his first Cactus League start to March 7. Quintong wasn't even positive Hernandez was the best pick on the board at that time. "I thought about Cliff Lee instead of Felix," said Quintong.
Jered Weaver, SP, Angels (56/33): Becquey certainly got a steal here, as the majority of the group shied away from starting pitching, taking just eight rotation men over the first four rounds. I personally like Weaver's consistently miniscule WHIP and ERA more than chasing strikeouts from Yu Darvish and Zack Greinke, the two pitchers picked ahead of Weaver in Round 5. Darvish owner Berry admitted, "I went back and forth between Darvish and Weaver."
Gio Gonzalez, SP, Washington Nationals (59/44): He is one of many ace pitchers who "slipped" on our draft board, but Gonzalez being chosen as the No. 13 starter in this mock isn't too far off his No. 11 spot among SPs in the Live Draft Results.
[h=4]ROUND 6[/h]
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[h=4]ROUND 7[/h]
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[h=4]ROUND 8[/h]
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[h=4]ROUND 9[/h]
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[h=4]ROUND 10[/h]
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REACHES, Rounds 6-10
Eric Hosmer, 1B, Kansas City Royals (Mock: 92/ADP rank: 117): I think this very much was a reach, as this was the only pick I did not like from Karabell all day. I would much rather have Anthony Rizzo or veterans Paul Konerko or Ryan Howard (all available at the time) than Hosmer.
Erick Aybar, SS, Angels (109/136): I needed a shortstop and thought Aybar was clearly better than the other alternatives. And although eight other owners already had shortstops, I didn't want to wait and be stuck with Alcides Escobar, who was the next best shortstop on the list, and the only one taken between picks 110 and 149 in the mock.
Danny Espinosa, 2B, Nationals (119/139): I actually like Espinosa's ability in all the quantitative categories, but I was surprised Berry didn't take a first baseman here, such as Espinosa's teammate Adam LaRoche. Remember that Berry already had his monster middle infield with Kinsler and Reyes, and seemed to be lacking in power. Berry actually waited until the final round to take his lone first baseman, Mark Reynolds, although not by design. "Five different first basemen went right before I was going to draft one."
Howard Kendrick, 2B, Angels (120/140): Cockcroft had no middle infielders, so this pick made sense for what he needed at the time. But I personally don't think Kendrick will reach the optimistic 78 runs projected for him on ESPN.com, which is way higher than his 57 runs in 550 at-bats last year. Only one second baseman (Rickie Weeks) was chosen between mock picks No. 121 and 151.
BARGAINS, Rounds 6-10
Joe Mauer, C, Minnesota Twins (Mock: 80/ADP rank: 60): The consensus among the experts seems to be that the catcher position is about as deep as it has ever been. That's why so many teams waited on taking a backstop. So why did Becquey grab Mauer at this point? "It was more about the player than getting the catcher," he explained. "He's worth the offense at this point and just because you CAN wait on catcher, I think some people pass them by and they can drop past where they should." I grabbed Victor Martinez five picks after Mauer to assure that I would get one of the top-six catchers, because there is a considerable drop-off immediately after Martinez. The other owners agreed, as no catcher was taken between picks 86 and 158.
CC Sabathia, SP, New York Yankees (86/50): Sabathia's smiling face was sitting at the top of the Players Available list for quite a long time before Roberts corralled the big man. This turned out to be the perfect spot for Roberts as nine of the next 16 picks were all starting pitchers, and all of these guys have many more question marks than the New York workhorse who has averaged nearly 250 innings per season over the past five years (including playoffs). So why the long wait for the Yankees' ace? "There's something about seeing 'elbow' that bothers me about Sabathia," said Hunter. "Even if it really is minor." Said Zola: "The injury risk for CC kept me away. There are too many guys similar with less risk."
Aroldis Chapman, SP, Cincinnati Reds (94/72): Chapman was one of these riskier pitcher picks who went shortly after Sabathia, but I think Hunter made a strong pick at this juncture. Zola agreed, "In a league with trading, Chapman should go earlier with the confidence he closes if he fails starting."
Jason Motte, RP, Cardinals (103/79): These experts always wait a while for relievers, so I don't see this as being a steal for Cwalinski as the third closer off the board. This pick opened of the floodgates, or at least a steady stream, of relievers as six of the next 20 selections were the ninth-inning specialists.
[h=4]ROUND 11[/h]
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[h=4]ROUND 12[/h]
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[h=4]ROUND 13[/h]
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[h=4]ROUND 14[/h]
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[h=4]ROUND 15[/h]
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REACHES, Rounds 11-15
Josh Rutledge, SS, Colorado Rockies (Mock: 154/ADP rank: 236): While the other experts absolutely love this 23-year-old playing in the thin air, I'm leaning towards the ADP bunch here. I'm much more cautious to buy into a guy with 54 strikeouts and nine walks in 277 at-bats in the majors, and a ceiling I don't see being greater than .280/15 homers/15 steals even playing half his games at Coors Field. Zola should've waited three or four more rounds here.
Jason Grilli, RP, Pittsburgh Pirates (167/194): I think this pick by Berry was also a reach, as Grilli has never closed in his career, which began in 2000.
Glen Perkins, RP, Twins (170/228): At this point, Berry was obviously stockpiling saves, and knew he had to act fast as eight relievers were taken in a 13-pick stretch between No. 160 and No. 172.
Dustin Ackley, 2B, Mariners (178/239): Zola likes this guy a lot more than I do, and thinks he'll hit closer to the 2013 projection of .252 than his actual .226 last season, which included a .217 clip after the All-Star break.
BARGAINS, Rounds 11-15
Ian Kennedy, SP, Diamondbacks (Mock: 137/ADP rank: 108): Becquey got good value here, but a lot of owners did the same, as Round 12 started a big run of starters, with seven hurlers going during a 10-pick stretch from No. 135 to 140.
Tim Lincecum, SP, San Francisco Giants (140/105): Lincecum was also part of this run, and this was an outstanding pick from Karabell, as I agree that the now short-haired Lincecum will have a strong bounce-back season.
Joel Hanrahan, RP, Boston Red Sox (155/119): He is the reliever most likely to be a bust according to the staff's 2013 Sleepers and Busts piece, so this wasn't surprising that Roberts was able to get him nearly 40 picks later he's going in drafts, which I'm sure are filled with Red Sox fans overrating Hanrahan to an extent.
Jon Lester, SP, Red Sox (156/131): I was very pleased Lester was still standing when the SP dust cleared, as I'm expecting a return to glory with a new regime in Boston, most notably his former pitching coach, current manager John Farrell.
[h=4]ROUND 16[/h]
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[h=4]ROUND 17[/h]
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[h=4]ROUND 18[/h]
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[h=4]ROUND 19[/h]
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[h=4]ROUND 20[/h]
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REACHES, Rounds 16-20
Marco Estrada, SP, Milwaukee Brewers (Mock 207/ADP rank: 296): As you've read so far, I didn't agree with all of Zola's picks, but he was right on the money with this one. Estrada is on the cusp of greatness, and I'm stunned that he's going so late in ADP (No. 82 starter), behind guys such as Paul Maholm, Justin Masterson and team-less Kyle Lohse.
Everth Cabrera, SS, San Diego Padres (208/278): Quintong needed steals at this point with a great slugging team, and there really wasn't any better middle infielder to be taken. In fact, only three more middle infielders were selected in the entire draft.
Michael Saunders, OF, Mariners (226/363): Statistically, this was the biggest reach in the draft, as Saunders ranks 363rd overall and 84th among outfielders in ADP, trailing the likes of Andy Dirks, Jeff Francoeur and Tyler Colvin. I think he deserves better than this ADP ranking, but Zola certainly could have gotten Saunders as his very last pick.
Justin Ruggiano, OF, Miami Marlins (236/312): He's in a similar boat with Saunders as a guy who probably went a round or two early in the mock. However, I think his ADP peers are more spot-on here with Ruggiano coming in behind Starling Marte, Drew Stubbs and Lorenzo Cain, a trio holding much more baseball talent.
Vinnie Pestano, RP, Indians (238/310): Hunter loaded up with middle relievers to keep his ERA and WHIP low, which included Pestano, the quality closer-in-waiting behind Chris Perez. It's difficult to call a 20th-round pick a reach, so I'm not going to do that.
BARGAINS, Rounds 16-20
Tim Hudson, SP, Atlanta Braves (Mock: 201/ADP rank: 162): This was a smart pick here by Quintong. Fantasy owners have underrated this guy for years thinking he'll get hurt again, but at the end of the season, he's sitting with 16 wins, a 3.19 ERA and 1.16 WHIP (his season averages since 2010).
Matt Harrison, SP, Texas Rangers (206/175): This was a fine pick for Roberts in Round 18, but I don't see Harrison as a bargain here, and I don't believe the ADP is correct in drafting him ahead of either Mike Minor, Matt Garza or Ryan Vogelsong.
Derek Holland, SP, Rangers (217/186): Cockcroft got him to begin the 19th round, which is where he should have gone. The ADP rank is a little too optimistic for a guy who just posted a season-long 4.67 ERA.
Kevin Youkilis, 3B, Yankees (221/195): I agree with Karabell that Youkilis is undervalued this year, as there's something to be said for an "oft-injured" guy to hit 15-plus homers for six straight seasons. And the move to Yankee Stadium will surely increase that to seven.
Matt Garza, SP, Chicago Cubs (228/185): Owners will tend to shy away from Garza because of injury, which makes me like him even more as a "sleeper," if you will. And if he doesn't last for 30 starts, there will be plenty of good arms for me to pick up in a 12-team league, so I don't think this was risky in Round 19.
[h=4]ROUND 21[/h]
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[h=4]ROUND 22[/h]
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REACHES, Rounds 21-22
Andrew Bailey, RP, Red Sox (Mock: 261/ADP rank: 368): This was the second-biggest reach in the draft, but Carpenter decided he wanted more relievers (five) than starters (four) on his pitching staff. I agree with Carpenter that Bailey will take over the closer job in Boston, it's just a matter of when.
David Hernandez, RP, Diamondbacks (262/338): Hunter's final pick gives him six relievers for his nine pitching spots, which includes starter-for-now Aroldis Chapman. Hernandez has a great chance of taking over for J.J. Putz, who has never been the most durable pitcher.
BARGAINS, Rounds 21-22
Adam Dunn, 1B, Chicago White Sox (Mock: 253/ADP rank: 206): I do think this was a bargain for me, but only because my team consisted of high average hitters and not enough power. I'm well aware that his batting average will hurt, but I also see no reason he won't smack another 40 homers.
A.J. Burnett, SP, Pirates (260/211): This is another Karabell bargain, but I don't think Burnett's No. 58 ADP rank among starting pitchers is that far off.
Five players ranked just outside the top 200 in terms of ADP were not drafted: Chris Carpenter (205), Brian McCann (216), J.P. Arencibia (217), Jurickson Profar (219) and Dee Gordon (220). None of these names were particularly surprising as we decided to forgo picking bench spots, which made the owners more cautious in terms of drafting injury risks and prospects. And with one catcher spot, McCann and Arencibia were not part of the first dozen backstops.
So there you have it. Make sure you continue to mock for free at ESPN.com, and I leave you with these words of wisdom from Becquey: "A good reminder that your team is only as good as it can be within the context of your league," said Becquey. "It's not about having the best possible players, but about having the optimal stats in each category."
By Brian Gramling | Special to ESPN.com
Most things in life are best in moderation, but when it comes to money, friends or mock drafts, you can never have enough. No matter how many mock drafts I've done, I always become a more knowledgeable fantasy leaguer after each and every mock draft.
We had already done a 10-team mock draft on Valentine's Day, so we decided to add two more ESPN.com experts for this version, giving us a lineup of Eric Karabell, Tristan H. Cockcroft, Matthew Berry, Dave Hunter, Tom Carpenter, Shawn Cwalinski, Todd Zola, Pierre Becquey, Keith Lipscomb, Brendan Roberts, James Quintong and myself.
Check out the positional breakdowns for the start of the mock:
Round 1: 4 CI, 2 MI, 5 OF, 0 C, 1 SP, 0 RP
Round 2: 4 CI, 2 MI, 4 OF, 1 C, 1 SP, 0 RP (counting Hanley Ramirez only as a third baseman)
Round 3: 2 CI, 2 MI, 4 OF, 0 C, 4 SP, 0 RP
Round 4: 3 CI, 2 MI, 4 OF, 0 C, 2 SP, 1 RP (counting Allen Craig only as an outfielder)
Round 5: 2 CI, 2 MI, 2 OF, 1 C, 5 SP, 0 RP
Rds.1-5: 15 CI, 10 MI, 19 OF, 2 C, 13 SP, 1 RP
I expected a few more top pitchers to be picked earlier, as only 13 starting pitchers for 12 teams were picked before the end of Round 5. The number didn't seem low to Roberts. "13 pitchers is probably about what I expected. We're normally a little light on pitchers early, but with 12 owners, there's a little more urgency there to get a good one." Quintong followed up by saying, "And there are some decent pitchers early on that were probably worth the investment, at the very least to anchor the staff." I was surprised that both top RP Craig Kimbrel and No. 2 catcher Yadier Molina were chosen among the top 60 in the experts' draft.
Round 6: 2 CI, 2 MI, 3 OF, 1 C, 4 SP, 0 RP
Round 7: 3 CI, 1 MI, 2 OF, 2 C, 3 SP, 1 RP (counting Carlos Santana and Joe Mauer only as catchers and Kris Medlen as a starting pitcher)
Round 8: 1 CI, 2 MI, 2 OF, 1 C, 6 SP, 0 RP (counting Martin Prado only as an outfielder and Aroldis Chapman as a starting pitcher)
Round 9: 1 CI*, 0 MI, 4 OF, 0 C, 4 SP, 3 RP (*David Ortiz who is DH only)
Round 10: 3 CI, 4 MI, 2 OF, 0 C, 1 SP, 2 RP
Rds.6-10: 10 CI, 9 MI, 13 OF, 4 C, 18 SP, 6 RP
The ongoing theme the draft was how long to wait on pitching. "I wish I had waited a little longer on pitching," said Cockcroft. "As the room tended to draft them later than ADP -- though that's not unusual for our group." The perceived lack of depth in the middle infield made some owners admittedly reach to secure a decent second baseman, shortstop, or both. Exactly two middle infielders were chosen in each of the first five rounds, but only five were taken in Rounds 6-9 before great panic set in for Round 10, when four more went. Outfielders and corner infielders remained steady throughout and the closer button was pushed in Round 9.
For each five-round tier below, I give my take on the biggest statistical gambles and bargains based solely on comparing a player's ranking in Average Draft Position (ADP rank) in the live ESPN.com drafts (through March 6) with where the player went in this mock draft. "Reaches" are players taken much earlier than their ADP ranking would suggest, and "Bargains" are players taken much later than their ADP ranking would suggest.
Our rosters consist of the same 22 starters (13 hitters, 9 pitchers) as the last Mock Draft, but with zero bench spots. ESPN standard 5x5 roto scoring is in effect. Below is how the draft unfolded. (You can click here for rosters by team).
[h=4]ROUND 1[/h]
| Pick | Overall | Player | Positions | By |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Miguel Cabrera, Det | 3B | Team Cockcroft |
| 2 | 2 | Ryan Braun, Mil | OF | Team Berry |
| 3 | 3 | Mike Trout, LAA | OF | Team Hunter |
| 4 | 4 | Andrew McCutchen, Pit | OF | Team Carpenter |
| 5 | 5 | Robinson Cano, NYY | 2B | Team Karabell |
| 6 | 6 | Matt Kemp, LAD | OF | Team Lipscomb |
| 7 | 7 | Carlos Gonzalez, Col | OF | Team Cwalinski |
| 8 | 8 | Joey Votto, Cin | 1B | Team Becquey |
| 9 | 9 | Albert Pujols, LAA | 1B | Team Quintong |
| 10 | 10 | Prince Fielder, Det | 1B | Team Zola |
| 11 | 11 | Troy Tulowitzki, Col | SS | Team Roberts |
| 12 | 12 | Justin Verlander, Det | SP | Team Gramling |
<THEAD>
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[h=4]ROUND 2[/h]
| Pick | Overall | Player | Positions | By |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 13 | Justin Upton, Atl | OF | Team Gramling |
| 2 | 14 | Buster Posey, SF | C/1B | Team Roberts |
| 3 | 15 | Adrian Beltre, Tex | 3B | Team Zola |
| 4 | 16 | Giancarlo Stanton, Mia | OF | Team Quintong |
| 5 | 17 | Jose Bautista, Tor | OF | Team Becquey |
| 6 | 18 | Evan Longoria, TB | 3B | Team Cwalinski |
| 7 | 19 | David Wright, NYM | 3B | Team Lipscomb |
| 8 | 20 | Hanley Ramirez, LAD | 3B/SS | Team Karabell |
| 9 | 21 | Clayton Kershaw, LAD | SP | Team Carpenter |
| 10 | 22 | Dustin Pedroia, Bos | 2B | Team Hunter |
| 11 | 23 | Ian Kinsler, Tex | 2B | Team Berry |
| 12 | 24 | Jason Heyward, Atl | OF | Team Cockcroft |
<THEAD>
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[h=4]ROUND 3[/h]
| Pick | Overall | Player | Positions | By |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 25 | Stephen Strasburg, Wsh | SP | Team Cockcroft |
| 2 | 26 | Jose Reyes, Tor | SS | Team Berry |
| 3 | 27 | Starlin Castro, ChC | SS | Team Hunter |
| 4 | 28 | Josh Hamilton, LAA | OF | Team Carpenter |
| 5 | 29 | Bryce Harper, Wsh | OF | Team Karabell |
| 6 | 30 | David Price, TB | SP | Team Lipscomb |
| 7 | 31 | Adam Jones, Bal | OF | Team Cwalinski |
| 8 | 32 | Edwin Encarnacion, Tor | 1B | Team Becquey |
| 9 | 33 | Felix Hernandez, Sea | SP | Team Quintong |
| 10 | 34 | Jacoby Ellsbury, Bos | OF | Team Zola |
| 11 | 35 | Cole Hamels, Phi | SP | Team Roberts |
| 12 | 36 | Adrian Gonzalez, LAD | 1B | Team Gramling |
<THEAD>
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[h=4]ROUND 4[/h]
| Pick | Overall | Player | Positions | By |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 37 | Matt Cain, SF | SP | Team Gramling |
| 2 | 38 | Craig Kimbrel, Atl | RP | Team Roberts |
| 3 | 39 | Allen Craig, StL | 1B/OF | Team Zola |
| 4 | 40 | Brandon Phillips, Cin | 2B | Team Quintong |
| 5 | 41 | Cliff Lee, Phi | SP | Team Becquey |
| 6 | 42 | Ben Zobrist, TB | OF/2B/SS | Team Cwalinski |
| 7 | 43 | Jay Bruce, Cin | OF | Team Lipscomb |
| 8 | 44 | Chase Headley, SD | 3B | Team Karabell |
| 9 | 45 | Ryan Zimmerman, Wsh | 3B | Team Carpenter |
| 10 | 46 | Billy Butler, KC | 1B | Team Hunter |
| 11 | 47 | Matt Holliday, StL | OF | Team Berry |
| 12 | 48 | B.J. Upton, Atl | OF | Team Cockcroft |
<THEAD>
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[h=4]ROUND 5[/h]
| Pick | Overall | Player | Positions | By |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 49 | Austin Jackson, Det | OF | Team Cockcroft |
| 2 | 50 | Yu Darvish, Tex | SP | Team Berry |
| 3 | 51 | Zack Greinke, LAD | SP | Team Hunter |
| 4 | 52 | Yadier Molina, StL | C | Team Carpenter |
| 5 | 53 | Yoenis Cespedes, Oak | OF | Team Karabell |
| 6 | 54 | Jason Kipnis, Cle | 2B | Team Lipscomb |
| 7 | 55 | Adam Wainwright, StL | SP | Team Cwalinski |
| 8 | 56 | Jered Weaver, LAA | SP | Team Becquey |
| 9 | 57 | Ian Desmond, Wsh | SS | Team Quintong |
| 10 | 58 | Paul Goldschmidt, Ari | 1B | Team Zola |
| 11 | 59 | Gio Gonzalez, Wsh | SP | Team Roberts |
| 12 | 60 | Aramis Ramirez, Mil | 3B | Team Gramling |
<THEAD>
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REACHES, Rounds 1-5
Allen Craig, OF/1B, St. Louis Cardinals (Mock: 39/ADP rank: 59): Zola drafted him as an outfielder, but picking the injury-prone Craig (missed 24 percent of his team's games in past five seasons) when both teammate Matt Holliday and Jay Bruce were available was surprising to say the least.
Ben Zobrist, SS/2B/OF, Tampa Bay Rays (42/57): Cwalinski had three hitters in his first three picks, and then got the best middle infielder on the board at the time with Zobrist. Obviously, Cwalinski felt he could hold off on pitching in the early rounds. Lipscomb sure didn't think Cwalinski was reaching by saying, "Wow. I was pegging Zobrist or Brandon Phillips at No. 43 and they both went. I really don't like MI this season." To which Berry confirmed, "Agree with Lipscomb on MI which is why I took Ian Kinsler and Jose Reyes in Rounds 2 and 3."
Austin Jackson, OF, Detroit Tigers (49/67): I think Jackson was picked a bit too high, but he's better than his 67th ADP rank. Cockcroft already had one third baseman, one starting pitcher and two outfielders when he made this pick, so he obviously wasn't enamored with anybody in the 1B, 2B or SS positions at this point and wanted to bolster his outfield. Cockcroft, who grabbed B.J. Upton with his previous pick at the No. 1 draft position, said, "I was torn between Jackson, Upton and Yoenis Cespedes for my two swing picks.
Jason Kipnis, 2B, Cleveland Indians (54/68): Cleveland product Lipscomb was chided with "homer" chants for this pick, but like Cwalinski's Zobrist pick a round before, Kipnis was the top second-bagger, and the group seemed to agree as only one other second baseman (Aaron Hill) was chosen before I took Jose Altuve to end Round 7.
Paul Goldschmidt, 1B, Arizona Diamondbacks (58/80): I didn't see this as a reach pick at all by Zola. Goldschmidt was clearly the best first baseman on the board, and the last of what I considered the second-tier of first sackers. You should not think Goldschmidt will last until 80th overall in your draft.
BARGAINS, Rounds 1-5
Josh Hamilton, Los Angeles Angels (Mock: 28/ADP rank: 16): Carpenter made a good pick here, but I don't think it was a steal. I'm very surprised to see that in the ADP world, Hamilton is going ahead of more reliable picks such as Justin Upton (13th in the mock), Adrian Beltre (15th) and Jose Bautista (17th), who Becquey predicts "will be a first-rounder again after this season. He leads the majors in home runs the past three seasons despite missing three months." I also like Evan Longoria (18th Mock, 22 ADP rank) more than Hamilton this season.
Felix Hernandez, Seattle Mariners (33/21): The sentiment in the draft room is still one of concern about the elbow of Hernandez, which caused the Mariners to push back his first Cactus League start to March 7. Quintong wasn't even positive Hernandez was the best pick on the board at that time. "I thought about Cliff Lee instead of Felix," said Quintong.
Jered Weaver, SP, Angels (56/33): Becquey certainly got a steal here, as the majority of the group shied away from starting pitching, taking just eight rotation men over the first four rounds. I personally like Weaver's consistently miniscule WHIP and ERA more than chasing strikeouts from Yu Darvish and Zack Greinke, the two pitchers picked ahead of Weaver in Round 5. Darvish owner Berry admitted, "I went back and forth between Darvish and Weaver."
Gio Gonzalez, SP, Washington Nationals (59/44): He is one of many ace pitchers who "slipped" on our draft board, but Gonzalez being chosen as the No. 13 starter in this mock isn't too far off his No. 11 spot among SPs in the Live Draft Results.
[h=4]ROUND 6[/h]
| Pick | Overall | Player | Positions | By |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 61 | Desmond Jennings, TB | OF | Team Gramling |
| 2 | 62 | Michael Bourn, Cle | OF | Team Roberts |
| 3 | 63 | Madison Bumgarner, SF | SP | Team Zola |
| 4 | 64 | Brett Lawrie, Tor | 3B | Team Quintong |
| 5 | 65 | Aaron Hill, Ari | 2B | Team Becquey |
| 6 | 66 | Roy Halladay, Phi | SP | Team Cwalinski |
| 7 | 67 | Alex Rios, CWS | OF | Team Lipscomb |
| 8 | 68 | R.A. Dickey, Tor | SP | Team Karabell |
| 9 | 69 | Jimmy Rollins, Phi | SS | Team Carpenter |
| 10 | 70 | Matt Wieters, Bal | C | Team Hunter |
| 11 | 71 | Pablo Sandoval, SF | 3B | Team Berry |
| 12 | 72 | Johnny Cueto, Cin | SP | Team Cockcroft |
<THEAD>
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[h=4]ROUND 7[/h]
| Pick | Overall | Player | Positions | By |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 73 | Carlos Santana, Cle | C/1B | Team Cockcroft |
| 2 | 74 | Chris Sale, CWS | SP | Team Berry |
| 3 | 75 | Freddie Freeman, Atl | 1B | Team Hunter |
| 4 | 76 | Jonathan Papelbon, Phi | RP | Team Carpenter |
| 5 | 77 | Mark Teixeira, NYY | 1B | Team Karabell |
| 6 | 78 | Kris Medlen, Atl | RP/SP | Team Lipscomb |
| 7 | 79 | Shin-Soo Choo, Cin | OF | Team Cwalinski |
| 8 | 80 | Joe Mauer, Min | C/1B | Team Becquey |
| 9 | 81 | Alex Gordon, KC | OF | Team Quintong |
| 10 | 82 | Max Scherzer, Det | SP | Team Zola |
| 11 | 83 | Ike Davis, NYM | 1B | Team Roberts |
| 12 | 84 | Jose Altuve, Hou | 2B | Team Gramling |
<THEAD>
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[h=4]ROUND 8[/h]
| Pick | Overall | Player | Positions | By |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 85 | Victor Martinez, Det | C | Team Gramling |
| 2 | 86 | CC Sabathia, NYY | SP | Team Roberts |
| 3 | 87 | Yovani Gallardo, Mil | SP | Team Zola |
| 4 | 88 | Mat Latos, Cin | SP | Team Quintong |
| 5 | 89 | Martin Prado, Ari | OF/3B | Team Becquey |
| 6 | 90 | Asdrubal Cabrera, Cle | SS | Team Cwalinski |
| 7 | 91 | Jordan Zimmermann, Wsh | SP | Team Lipscomb |
| 8 | 92 | Eric Hosmer, KC | 1B | Team Karabell |
| 9 | 93 | Elvis Andrus, Tex | SS | Team Carpenter |
| 10 | 94 | Aroldis Chapman, Cin | RP/SP | Team Hunter |
| 11 | 95 | Melky Cabrera, Tor | OF | Team Berry |
| 12 | 96 | Matt Moore, TB | SP | Team Cockcroft |
<THEAD>
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[h=4]ROUND 9[/h]
| Pick | Overall | Player | Positions | By |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 97 | Mark Trumbo, LAA | OF/1B | Team Cockcroft |
| 2 | 98 | Brandon Morrow, Tor | SP | Team Berry |
| 3 | 99 | Curtis Granderson, NYY | OF | Team Hunter |
| 4 | 100 | James Shields, KC | SP | Team Carpenter |
| 5 | 101 | Doug Fister, Det | SP | Team Karabell |
| 6 | 102 | Josh Johnson, Tor | SP | Team Lipscomb |
| 7 | 103 | Jason Motte, StL | RP | Team Cwalinski |
| 8 | 104 | Carlos Gomez, Mil | OF | Team Becquey |
| 9 | 105 | Rafael Soriano, Wsh | RP | Team Quintong |
| 10 | 106 | Josh Willingham, Min | OF | Team Zola |
| 11 | 107 | David Ortiz, Bos | DH | Team Roberts |
| 12 | 108 | Fernando Rodney, TB | RP | Team Gramling |
<THEAD>
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</TBODY>
[h=4]ROUND 10[/h]
| Pick | Overall | Player | Positions | By |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 109 | Erick Aybar, LAA | SS | Team Gramling |
| 2 | 110 | Anthony Rizzo, ChC | 1B | Team Roberts |
| 3 | 111 | Shane Victorino, Bos | OF | Team Zola |
| 4 | 112 | Hiroki Kuroda, NYY | SP | Team Quintong |
| 5 | 113 | Joe Nathan, Tex | RP | Team Becquey |
| 6 | 114 | Paul Konerko, CWS | 1B | Team Cwalinski |
| 7 | 115 | Ryan Howard, Phi | 1B | Team Lipscomb |
| 8 | 116 | Neil Walker, Pit | 2B | Team Karabell |
| 9 | 117 | Angel Pagan, SF | OF | Team Carpenter |
| 10 | 118 | J.J. Putz, Ari | RP | Team Hunter |
| 11 | 119 | Danny Espinosa, Wsh | 2B/SS | Team Berry |
| 12 | 120 | Howard Kendrick, LAA | 2B | Team Cockcroft |
<THEAD>
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REACHES, Rounds 6-10
Eric Hosmer, 1B, Kansas City Royals (Mock: 92/ADP rank: 117): I think this very much was a reach, as this was the only pick I did not like from Karabell all day. I would much rather have Anthony Rizzo or veterans Paul Konerko or Ryan Howard (all available at the time) than Hosmer.
Erick Aybar, SS, Angels (109/136): I needed a shortstop and thought Aybar was clearly better than the other alternatives. And although eight other owners already had shortstops, I didn't want to wait and be stuck with Alcides Escobar, who was the next best shortstop on the list, and the only one taken between picks 110 and 149 in the mock.
Danny Espinosa, 2B, Nationals (119/139): I actually like Espinosa's ability in all the quantitative categories, but I was surprised Berry didn't take a first baseman here, such as Espinosa's teammate Adam LaRoche. Remember that Berry already had his monster middle infield with Kinsler and Reyes, and seemed to be lacking in power. Berry actually waited until the final round to take his lone first baseman, Mark Reynolds, although not by design. "Five different first basemen went right before I was going to draft one."
Howard Kendrick, 2B, Angels (120/140): Cockcroft had no middle infielders, so this pick made sense for what he needed at the time. But I personally don't think Kendrick will reach the optimistic 78 runs projected for him on ESPN.com, which is way higher than his 57 runs in 550 at-bats last year. Only one second baseman (Rickie Weeks) was chosen between mock picks No. 121 and 151.
BARGAINS, Rounds 6-10
Joe Mauer, C, Minnesota Twins (Mock: 80/ADP rank: 60): The consensus among the experts seems to be that the catcher position is about as deep as it has ever been. That's why so many teams waited on taking a backstop. So why did Becquey grab Mauer at this point? "It was more about the player than getting the catcher," he explained. "He's worth the offense at this point and just because you CAN wait on catcher, I think some people pass them by and they can drop past where they should." I grabbed Victor Martinez five picks after Mauer to assure that I would get one of the top-six catchers, because there is a considerable drop-off immediately after Martinez. The other owners agreed, as no catcher was taken between picks 86 and 158.
CC Sabathia, SP, New York Yankees (86/50): Sabathia's smiling face was sitting at the top of the Players Available list for quite a long time before Roberts corralled the big man. This turned out to be the perfect spot for Roberts as nine of the next 16 picks were all starting pitchers, and all of these guys have many more question marks than the New York workhorse who has averaged nearly 250 innings per season over the past five years (including playoffs). So why the long wait for the Yankees' ace? "There's something about seeing 'elbow' that bothers me about Sabathia," said Hunter. "Even if it really is minor." Said Zola: "The injury risk for CC kept me away. There are too many guys similar with less risk."
Aroldis Chapman, SP, Cincinnati Reds (94/72): Chapman was one of these riskier pitcher picks who went shortly after Sabathia, but I think Hunter made a strong pick at this juncture. Zola agreed, "In a league with trading, Chapman should go earlier with the confidence he closes if he fails starting."
Jason Motte, RP, Cardinals (103/79): These experts always wait a while for relievers, so I don't see this as being a steal for Cwalinski as the third closer off the board. This pick opened of the floodgates, or at least a steady stream, of relievers as six of the next 20 selections were the ninth-inning specialists.
[h=4]ROUND 11[/h]
| Pick | Overall | Player | Positions | By |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 121 | Mariano Rivera, NYY | RP | Team Cockcroft |
| 2 | 122 | David Freese, StL | 3B | Team Berry |
| 3 | 123 | Jim Johnson, Bal | RP | Team Hunter |
| 4 | 124 | Alejandro De Aza, CWS | OF | Team Carpenter |
| 5 | 125 | Dan Haren, Wsh | SP | Team Karabell |
| 6 | 126 | Nelson Cruz, Tex | OF | Team Lipscomb |
| 7 | 127 | Brett Gardner, NYY | OF | Team Cwalinski |
| 8 | 128 | Carlos Beltran, StL | OF | Team Becquey |
| 9 | 129 | Ben Revere, Phi | OF | Team Quintong |
| 10 | 130 | Sergio Romo, SF | RP | Team Zola |
| 11 | 131 | Torii Hunter, Det | OF | Team Roberts |
| 12 | 132 | Hunter Pence, SF | OF | Team Gramling |
<THEAD>
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[h=4]ROUND 12[/h]
| Pick | Overall | Player | Positions | By |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 133 | Carl Crawford, LAD | OF | Team Gramling |
| 2 | 134 | Alcides Escobar, KC | SS | Team Roberts |
| 3 | 135 | C.J. Wilson, LAA | SP | Team Zola |
| 4 | 136 | Adam LaRoche, Wsh | 1B | Team Quintong |
| 5 | 137 | Ian Kennedy, Ari | SP | Team Becquey |
| 6 | 138 | Jake Peavy, CWS | SP | Team Cwalinski |
| 7 | 139 | Brett Anderson, Oak | SP | Team Lipscomb |
| 8 | 140 | Tim Lincecum, SF | SP | Team Karabell |
| 9 | 141 | Rickie Weeks, Mil | 2B | Team Carpenter |
| 10 | 142 | Michael Morse, Sea | OF | Team Hunter |
| 11 | 143 | Jeff Samardzija, ChC | SP | Team Berry |
| 12 | 144 | Anibal Sanchez, Det | SP | Team Cockcroft |
<THEAD>
<TBODY>
</TBODY>
[h=4]ROUND 13[/h]
| Pick | Overall | Player | Positions | By |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 145 | Pedro Alvarez, Pit | 3B | Team Cockcroft |
| 2 | 146 | Jason Kubel, Ari | OF | Team Berry |
| 3 | 147 | Andre Ethier, LAD | OF | Team Hunter |
| 4 | 148 | Mike Moustakas, KC | 3B | Team Carpenter |
| 5 | 149 | Lance Lynn, StL | SP | Team Karabell |
| 6 | 150 | J.J. Hardy, Bal | SS | Team Lipscomb |
| 7 | 151 | John Axford, Mil | RP | Team Cwalinski |
| 8 | 152 | Chase Utley, Phi | 2B | Team Becquey |
| 9 | 153 | Jonathon Niese, NYM | SP | Team Quintong |
| 10 | 154 | Josh Rutledge, Col | SS | Team Zola |
| 11 | 155 | Joel Hanrahan, Bos | RP | Team Roberts |
| 12 | 156 | Jon Lester, Bos | SP | Team Gramling |
<THEAD>
<TBODY>
</TBODY>
[h=4]ROUND 14[/h]
| Pick | Overall | Player | Positions | By |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 157 | Huston Street, SD | RP | Team Gramling |
| 2 | 158 | Dan Uggla, Atl | 2B | Team Roberts |
| 3 | 159 | Mike Napoli, Bos | C/1B | Team Zola |
| 4 | 160 | Addison Reed, CWS | RP | Team Quintong |
| 5 | 161 | Josh Reddick, Oak | OF | Team Becquey |
| 6 | 162 | Greg Holland, KC | RP | Team Cwalinski |
| 7 | 163 | Grant Balfour, Oak | RP | Team Lipscomb |
| 8 | 164 | Nick Swisher, Cle | OF/1B | Team Karabell |
| 9 | 165 | Rafael Betancourt, Col | RP | Team Carpenter |
| 10 | 166 | Chris Davis, Bal | OF/1B | Team Hunter |
| 11 | 167 | Jason Grilli, Pit | RP | Team Berry |
| 12 | 168 | Jarrod Parker, Oak | SP | Team Cockcroft |
<THEAD>
<TBODY>
</TBODY>
[h=4]ROUND 15[/h]
| Pick | Overall | Player | Positions | By |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 169 | Derek Jeter, NYY | SS | Team Cockcroft |
| 2 | 170 | Glen Perkins, Min | RP | Team Berry |
| 3 | 171 | Ryan Madson, LAA | RP | Team Hunter |
| 4 | 172 | Jonathan Broxton, Cin | RP | Team Carpenter |
| 5 | 173 | Salvador Perez, KC | C | Team Karabell |
| 6 | 174 | Marco Scutaro, SF | 2B/SS | Team Lipscomb |
| 7 | 175 | Kendrys Morales, Sea | 1B | Team Cwalinski |
| 8 | 176 | Alexei Ramirez, CWS | SS | Team Becquey |
| 9 | 177 | Colby Rasmus, Tor | OF | Team Quintong |
| 10 | 178 | Dustin Ackley, Sea | 2B | Team Zola |
| 11 | 179 | Matt Harvey, NYM | SP | Team Roberts |
| 12 | 180 | Manny Machado, Bal | 3B | Team Gramling |
<THEAD>
<TBODY>
</TBODY>
REACHES, Rounds 11-15
Josh Rutledge, SS, Colorado Rockies (Mock: 154/ADP rank: 236): While the other experts absolutely love this 23-year-old playing in the thin air, I'm leaning towards the ADP bunch here. I'm much more cautious to buy into a guy with 54 strikeouts and nine walks in 277 at-bats in the majors, and a ceiling I don't see being greater than .280/15 homers/15 steals even playing half his games at Coors Field. Zola should've waited three or four more rounds here.
Jason Grilli, RP, Pittsburgh Pirates (167/194): I think this pick by Berry was also a reach, as Grilli has never closed in his career, which began in 2000.
Glen Perkins, RP, Twins (170/228): At this point, Berry was obviously stockpiling saves, and knew he had to act fast as eight relievers were taken in a 13-pick stretch between No. 160 and No. 172.
Dustin Ackley, 2B, Mariners (178/239): Zola likes this guy a lot more than I do, and thinks he'll hit closer to the 2013 projection of .252 than his actual .226 last season, which included a .217 clip after the All-Star break.
BARGAINS, Rounds 11-15
Ian Kennedy, SP, Diamondbacks (Mock: 137/ADP rank: 108): Becquey got good value here, but a lot of owners did the same, as Round 12 started a big run of starters, with seven hurlers going during a 10-pick stretch from No. 135 to 140.
Tim Lincecum, SP, San Francisco Giants (140/105): Lincecum was also part of this run, and this was an outstanding pick from Karabell, as I agree that the now short-haired Lincecum will have a strong bounce-back season.
Joel Hanrahan, RP, Boston Red Sox (155/119): He is the reliever most likely to be a bust according to the staff's 2013 Sleepers and Busts piece, so this wasn't surprising that Roberts was able to get him nearly 40 picks later he's going in drafts, which I'm sure are filled with Red Sox fans overrating Hanrahan to an extent.
Jon Lester, SP, Red Sox (156/131): I was very pleased Lester was still standing when the SP dust cleared, as I'm expecting a return to glory with a new regime in Boston, most notably his former pitching coach, current manager John Farrell.
[h=4]ROUND 16[/h]
| Pick | Overall | Player | Positions | By |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 181 | Jeremy Hellickson, TB | SP | Team Gramling |
| 2 | 182 | Ichiro Suzuki, NYY | OF | Team Roberts |
| 3 | 183 | Coco Crisp, Oak | OF | Team Zola |
| 4 | 184 | Jesus Montero, Sea | C | Team Quintong |
| 5 | 185 | Homer Bailey, Cin | SP | Team Becquey |
| 6 | 186 | Wade Miley, Ari | SP | Team Cwalinski |
| 7 | 187 | Brandon League, LAD | RP | Team Lipscomb |
| 8 | 188 | Chris Perez, Cle | RP | Team Karabell |
| 9 | 189 | Corey Hart, Mil | 1B/OF | Team Carpenter |
| 10 | 190 | Andrelton Simmons, Atl | SS | Team Hunter |
| 11 | 191 | Wilin Rosario, Col | C | Team Berry |
| 12 | 192 | Dexter Fowler, Col | OF | Team Cockcroft |
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[h=4]ROUND 17[/h]
| Pick | Overall | Player | Positions | By |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 193 | Todd Frazier, Cin | 3B/1B | Team Cockcroft |
| 2 | 194 | Mike Minor, Atl | SP | Team Berry |
| 3 | 195 | Kyle Seager, Sea | 3B | Team Hunter |
| 4 | 196 | Lance Berkman, Tex | 1B | Team Carpenter |
| 5 | 197 | Kenley Jansen, LAD | RP | Team Karabell |
| 6 | 198 | Miguel Montero, Ari | C | Team Lipscomb |
| 7 | 199 | Trevor Cahill, Ari | SP | Team Cwalinski |
| 8 | 200 | Norichika Aoki, Mil | OF | Team Becquey |
| 9 | 201 | Tim Hudson, Atl | SP | Team Quintong |
| 10 | 202 | Tom Wilhelmsen, Sea | RP | Team Zola |
| 11 | 203 | Will Middlebrooks, Bos | 3B | Team Roberts |
| 12 | 204 | Ryan Vogelsong, SF | SP | Team Gramling |
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[h=4]ROUND 18[/h]
| Pick | Overall | Player | Positions | By |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 205 | Daniel Murphy, NYM | 2B | Team Gramling |
| 2 | 206 | Matt Harrison, Tex | SP | Team Roberts |
| 3 | 207 | Marco Estrada, Mil | SP | Team Zola |
| 4 | 208 | Everth Cabrera, SD | SS | Team Quintong |
| 5 | 209 | Phil Hughes, NYY | SP | Team Becquey |
| 6 | 210 | Alfonso Soriano, ChC | OF | Team Cwalinski |
| 7 | 211 | Adam Eaton, Ari | OF | Team Lipscomb |
| 8 | 212 | Casey Janssen, Tor | RP | Team Karabell |
| 9 | 213 | Jaime Garcia, StL | SP | Team Carpenter |
| 10 | 214 | Tommy Milone, Oak | SP | Team Hunter |
| 11 | 215 | Steve Cishek, Mia | RP | Team Berry |
| 12 | 216 | Cameron Maybin, SD | OF | Team Cockcroft |
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[h=4]ROUND 19[/h]
| Pick | Overall | Player | Positions | By |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 217 | Derek Holland, Tex | SP | Team Cockcroft |
| 2 | 218 | Dayan Viciedo, CWS | OF | Team Berry |
| 3 | 219 | Ernesto Frieri, LAA | RP | Team Hunter |
| 4 | 220 | Bruce Rondon, Det | RP | Team Carpenter |
| 5 | 221 | Kevin Youkilis, NYY | 3B/1B | Team Karabell |
| 6 | 222 | Michael Young, Phi | 1B/3B | Team Lipscomb |
| 7 | 223 | Jonathan Lucroy, Mil | C | Team Cwalinski |
| 8 | 224 | Garrett Jones, Pit | 1B/OF | Team Becquey |
| 9 | 225 | Bobby Parnell, NYM | RP | Team Quintong |
| 10 | 226 | Michael Saunders, Sea | OF | Team Zola |
| 11 | 227 | Nick Markakis, Bal | OF | Team Roberts |
| 12 | 228 | Matt Garza, ChC | SP | Team Gramling |
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[h=4]ROUND 20[/h]
| Pick | Overall | Player | Positions | By |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 229 | Jose Veras, Hou | RP | Team Gramling |
| 2 | 230 | Emilio Bonifacio, Tor | OF | Team Roberts |
| 3 | 231 | Alexi Ogando, Tex | RP | Team Zola |
| 4 | 232 | Michael Cuddyer, Col | OF/1B | Team Quintong |
| 5 | 233 | Frank Francisco, NYM | RP | Team Becquey |
| 6 | 234 | Omar Infante, Det | 2B | Team Cwalinski |
| 7 | 235 | Jayson Werth, Wsh | OF | Team Lipscomb |
| 8 | 236 | Justin Ruggiano, Mia | OF | Team Karabell |
| 9 | 237 | Brandon McCarthy, Ari | SP | Team Carpenter |
| 10 | 238 | Vinnie Pestano, Cle | RP | Team Hunter |
| 11 | 239 | Lorenzo Cain, KC | OF | Team Berry |
| 12 | 240 | Brandon Beachy, Atl | SP | Team Cockcroft |
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REACHES, Rounds 16-20
Marco Estrada, SP, Milwaukee Brewers (Mock 207/ADP rank: 296): As you've read so far, I didn't agree with all of Zola's picks, but he was right on the money with this one. Estrada is on the cusp of greatness, and I'm stunned that he's going so late in ADP (No. 82 starter), behind guys such as Paul Maholm, Justin Masterson and team-less Kyle Lohse.
Everth Cabrera, SS, San Diego Padres (208/278): Quintong needed steals at this point with a great slugging team, and there really wasn't any better middle infielder to be taken. In fact, only three more middle infielders were selected in the entire draft.
Michael Saunders, OF, Mariners (226/363): Statistically, this was the biggest reach in the draft, as Saunders ranks 363rd overall and 84th among outfielders in ADP, trailing the likes of Andy Dirks, Jeff Francoeur and Tyler Colvin. I think he deserves better than this ADP ranking, but Zola certainly could have gotten Saunders as his very last pick.
Justin Ruggiano, OF, Miami Marlins (236/312): He's in a similar boat with Saunders as a guy who probably went a round or two early in the mock. However, I think his ADP peers are more spot-on here with Ruggiano coming in behind Starling Marte, Drew Stubbs and Lorenzo Cain, a trio holding much more baseball talent.
Vinnie Pestano, RP, Indians (238/310): Hunter loaded up with middle relievers to keep his ERA and WHIP low, which included Pestano, the quality closer-in-waiting behind Chris Perez. It's difficult to call a 20th-round pick a reach, so I'm not going to do that.
BARGAINS, Rounds 16-20
Tim Hudson, SP, Atlanta Braves (Mock: 201/ADP rank: 162): This was a smart pick here by Quintong. Fantasy owners have underrated this guy for years thinking he'll get hurt again, but at the end of the season, he's sitting with 16 wins, a 3.19 ERA and 1.16 WHIP (his season averages since 2010).
Matt Harrison, SP, Texas Rangers (206/175): This was a fine pick for Roberts in Round 18, but I don't see Harrison as a bargain here, and I don't believe the ADP is correct in drafting him ahead of either Mike Minor, Matt Garza or Ryan Vogelsong.
Derek Holland, SP, Rangers (217/186): Cockcroft got him to begin the 19th round, which is where he should have gone. The ADP rank is a little too optimistic for a guy who just posted a season-long 4.67 ERA.
Kevin Youkilis, 3B, Yankees (221/195): I agree with Karabell that Youkilis is undervalued this year, as there's something to be said for an "oft-injured" guy to hit 15-plus homers for six straight seasons. And the move to Yankee Stadium will surely increase that to seven.
Matt Garza, SP, Chicago Cubs (228/185): Owners will tend to shy away from Garza because of injury, which makes me like him even more as a "sleeper," if you will. And if he doesn't last for 30 starts, there will be plenty of good arms for me to pick up in a 12-team league, so I don't think this was risky in Round 19.
[h=4]ROUND 21[/h]
| Pick | Overall | Player | Positions | By |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 241 | Sergio Santos, Tor | RP | Team Cockcroft |
| 2 | 242 | Edwin Jackson, ChC | SP | Team Berry |
| 3 | 243 | Juan Pierre, Mia | OF | Team Hunter |
| 4 | 244 | Logan Morrison, Mia | OF/1B | Team Carpenter |
| 5 | 245 | Drew Stubbs, Cle | OF | Team Karabell |
| 6 | 246 | David Robertson, NYY | RP | Team Lipscomb |
| 7 | 247 | Trevor Plouffe, Min | 3B | Team Cwalinski |
| 8 | 248 | Kyuji Fujikawa, ChC | RP | Team Becquey |
| 9 | 249 | Justin Morneau, Min | 1B | Team Quintong |
| 10 | 250 | Alex Cobb, TB | SP | Team Zola |
| 11 | 251 | Ryan Dempster, Bos | SP | Team Roberts |
| 12 | 252 | Ryan Ludwick, Cin | OF | Team Gramling |
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[h=4]ROUND 22[/h]
| Pick | Overall | Player | Positions | By |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 253 | Adam Dunn, CWS | 1B | Team Gramling |
| 2 | 254 | Carlos Marmol, ChC | RP | Team Roberts |
| 3 | 255 | Zack Cozart, Cin | SS | Team Zola |
| 4 | 256 | Josh Beckett, LAD | SP | Team Quintong |
| 5 | 257 | Hyun-Jin Ryu, LAD | SP | Team Becquey |
| 6 | 258 | Jason Hammel, Bal | SP | Team Cwalinski |
| 7 | 259 | Ryan Cook, Oak | RP | Team Lipscomb |
| 8 | 260 | A.J. Burnett, Pit | SP | Team Karabell |
| 9 | 261 | Andrew Bailey, Bos | RP | Team Carpenter |
| 10 | 262 | David Hernandez, Ari | RP | Team Hunter |
| 11 | 263 | Mark Reynolds, Cle | 1B | Team Berry |
| 12 | 264 | Jed Lowrie, Oak | SS | Team Cockcroft |
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REACHES, Rounds 21-22
Andrew Bailey, RP, Red Sox (Mock: 261/ADP rank: 368): This was the second-biggest reach in the draft, but Carpenter decided he wanted more relievers (five) than starters (four) on his pitching staff. I agree with Carpenter that Bailey will take over the closer job in Boston, it's just a matter of when.
David Hernandez, RP, Diamondbacks (262/338): Hunter's final pick gives him six relievers for his nine pitching spots, which includes starter-for-now Aroldis Chapman. Hernandez has a great chance of taking over for J.J. Putz, who has never been the most durable pitcher.
BARGAINS, Rounds 21-22
Adam Dunn, 1B, Chicago White Sox (Mock: 253/ADP rank: 206): I do think this was a bargain for me, but only because my team consisted of high average hitters and not enough power. I'm well aware that his batting average will hurt, but I also see no reason he won't smack another 40 homers.
A.J. Burnett, SP, Pirates (260/211): This is another Karabell bargain, but I don't think Burnett's No. 58 ADP rank among starting pitchers is that far off.
Five players ranked just outside the top 200 in terms of ADP were not drafted: Chris Carpenter (205), Brian McCann (216), J.P. Arencibia (217), Jurickson Profar (219) and Dee Gordon (220). None of these names were particularly surprising as we decided to forgo picking bench spots, which made the owners more cautious in terms of drafting injury risks and prospects. And with one catcher spot, McCann and Arencibia were not part of the first dozen backstops.
So there you have it. Make sure you continue to mock for free at ESPN.com, and I leave you with these words of wisdom from Becquey: "A good reminder that your team is only as good as it can be within the context of your league," said Becquey. "It's not about having the best possible players, but about having the optimal stats in each category."
