Gold Sheet - Final 2008 Power Ratings
I was just going over the ATS records I obtained from goldsheet.com. Their ratings are a little different. Florida is the highest rated team from 2008 with a final rating of -20 (lower the better) and Wahington St was that lowest rated team at +42. I found it interesting to see which teams finished 2008 with the top ratings according the them. They are as follows:
1. Florida -20
2. So Cal -17
3. Okla -16
4. Texas -10
5. Alabama -4
6. Ohio St -3
7. Penn St -2
Utah -2
9. Boise St -1
Okla. St -1
Oregon -1
TCU -1
13. Georgia - 0
Mississippi - 0
Texas Tech - 0
Most of those teams are still solid with only Utah, and Texas Tech doing in major overhauls.
I cannot post that sheet on here for some reason but it is worth going to their site and looking over LY's W/L records, ATS records, and their final power ratings. They will update this every week once the season starts and you can see how they have the teams rated once the season starts compared to how they were rated at the end of LY. This is a good indication of what direction they think a team may be headed. I plan to monitor it on a regular basis.
I was just going over the ATS records I obtained from goldsheet.com. Their ratings are a little different. Florida is the highest rated team from 2008 with a final rating of -20 (lower the better) and Wahington St was that lowest rated team at +42. I found it interesting to see which teams finished 2008 with the top ratings according the them. They are as follows:
1. Florida -20
2. So Cal -17
3. Okla -16
4. Texas -10
5. Alabama -4
6. Ohio St -3
7. Penn St -2
Utah -2
9. Boise St -1
Okla. St -1
Oregon -1
TCU -1
13. Georgia - 0
Mississippi - 0
Texas Tech - 0
Most of those teams are still solid with only Utah, and Texas Tech doing in major overhauls.
I cannot post that sheet on here for some reason but it is worth going to their site and looking over LY's W/L records, ATS records, and their final power ratings. They will update this every week once the season starts and you can see how they have the teams rated once the season starts compared to how they were rated at the end of LY. This is a good indication of what direction they think a team may be headed. I plan to monitor it on a regular basis.
Marc Larences 2009 Football Handicappers Yearbook
I picked up a copy today and was not very impressed. No where close to Steele's. No rosters, depth charts, individual stats, breakdowns on offenses or defenses. I cannot repeat it enough times. Go on to goldsheet.com and sign up for their free preview. They will e-mail it to you and you can print up a well formated 2 page breakdown on everyteam. Well worth the time and effort to print it up yourself. Lots of insights, depth charts, and stats. Lawrence's is full of trends and is not worth $9.95 in my opinion.
I picked up a copy today and was not very impressed. No where close to Steele's. No rosters, depth charts, individual stats, breakdowns on offenses or defenses. I cannot repeat it enough times. Go on to goldsheet.com and sign up for their free preview. They will e-mail it to you and you can print up a well formated 2 page breakdown on everyteam. Well worth the time and effort to print it up yourself. Lots of insights, depth charts, and stats. Lawrence's is full of trends and is not worth $9.95 in my opinion.
As I said, Lawrence is for the Technical side of capping. That is part of a well rounded 'Cappers program. Lindy's is for the players side of capping. It has nothing to do with the technical side. Steele does a little of both. I have them all, and use them according to my needs. Just be ready to do a lot of lining out in Steel's and Lindy's magazines, because the roster change so much.
Roster changes are tough to keep up with. Both philsteele.com and goldsheet.com are going to monitor lost starts beginning with week one.
I did enjoy Lawrence's "Six tips to help you earn big money this football season". His "pays to play parlays" reinforces something I have stressed on here before. In his own words "Common thinking says parlays are just a sucker's bet. However, that's a very primative way of viewing it. Betting games individually does provide more financial security, but slow and steady is not the only way to win the race. Tying a couple of games together in a parlay multiplies your payout, which leads to a bigger payday. It's a higher risk but, unquestionably, a much higher reward. If your plays are stong enough to bet individually, budget in a parlay and grow your bankrool faster."
All six tips are listed on page 216.
60 dats and counting
I know a lot of people think they are jumping in early (60 days early) before the season begins. I started posting this thread back in January. All of my research is on here but you have to dig back a ways to get to some of it. It is not too late to jump in so feel free to throw out any topic that comes to mind on this thread or start you own. I have heard this forum gets pretty frenzied once the season begins. I am very interested to see the actual opening week odds because in my opinion that is when it counts. If there is anyway I can help someone with some research let me know. I am at a near burnout until the lines come out.
I know a lot of people think they are jumping in early (60 days early) before the season begins. I started posting this thread back in January. All of my research is on here but you have to dig back a ways to get to some of it. It is not too late to jump in so feel free to throw out any topic that comes to mind on this thread or start you own. I have heard this forum gets pretty frenzied once the season begins. I am very interested to see the actual opening week odds because in my opinion that is when it counts. If there is anyway I can help someone with some research let me know. I am at a near burnout until the lines come out.
I agree with the 9 win sentiment, as do most ND fans. However, the schedule isn't as soft as last year (ranked #60 by Phil Steele last year, #36 this year).
Nevada is a good team and as Southern Cal learned last year, those tricky running teams could give you fits. However, ND should be prepared after last year's opening debacle and take care of them.
But the Michigan game in Ann Arbor will be more difficult than most people think. ND should win out the next 3 until USC where they should be a 10 point dog. Probably 13 if they have a loss, or 7 if USC is showing some early season problems losing all those starters on defense and breaking in a new QB.
The BC game will be tricky as well. Even though it is a home game, it falls in the middle of our Thanksgiving break and many students won't be there for the game. Pitt/UConn/Stanford are all potential late season trap games.
10 wins should be expected and anything under 9 will likely cost Weis his job
Irish: I have the BC game as a big revenge game for ND but coming the week after the USC game and just before a road trip I am not sure ND will be as focused as I had hoped. How much difference would a win or loss make coming into the BC game? BC shut them out LY, first shutout in that series.
July 5, 2009
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Rivals.com Staff
<SCRIPT language=javascript>document.write("<div id=contentcontainer style='font-size: " + currentsize + "pt;'>");</SCRIPT>At the College Football Roundtable each week, we ask each member of the coverage staff for his opinion about a topic in the sport.
This week's question: Which team do you think will be most hampered by its quarterback situation this season?
<!--Start Image--><SCRIPT language=Javascript>document.write(insertImage('/IMAGES/Player/video/KEVINCRAFT250_0327.JPG', '', 0, 300, 250, 1, 'Kevin Craft lost the starting job at UCLA in the spring.', '', 1246738743000, '', 1014, 'Align=Left'));</SCRIPT><TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width=258 align=left border=0><TBODY><TR><TD width=252>
</TD><TD width=6 rowSpan=3>
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</TD></TR><TR><TD align=middle>Kevin Craft lost the starting job at UCLA in the spring.</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><!-- End Image-->UCLA strikes me as the answer to that question. The Bruins were definitely hampered by poor QB play when they went 4-8 last season. Kevin Craft threw 20 interceptions to just seven touchdown passes last season, and the inconsistent passing game - combined with problems in the offensive line - contributed to the running game's demise. The Bruins offensive line projects to be significantly improved this year, there is some rising talent at running back and the receivers are pretty good. But quarterback issues remain. Craft lost the starting job in the spring to redshirt freshman Kevin Prince, who was also inconsistent and is unproven. The Bruins could make good progress this season, but they'll need an adequate performance at quarterback. If they don't get it, they could struggle to get six victories.
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</TD></TR><TR><TD align=right>Associated Press</TD></TR><TR><TD height=3>
</TD></TR><TR><TD align=middle>Jonathan Crompton is the best option at Tennessee right now.</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><!-- End Image-->I think there are numerous teams that would be better off with proven players at quarterback, most notably Alabama, California, Georgia, LSU, Michigan State, Nebraska, USC, Utah and West Virginia. But I think those teams remain strong enough to get to a bowl and, in some cases, contend for league titles even with questions at quarterback. But a team that stands out as a squad that may not get to a bowl because of its quarterback is Tennessee. The Vols have a new coach because their offense was pitiful last season — and the same quarterbacks are in place this season. Why new coach Lane Kiffin didn't make it a priority to sign a quarterback — or three — in the 2009 recruiting class remains a mystery. The Vols' defense again will be strong. But that didn't matter last season because the offense was inept. Coaching only takes you so far, and I think new offensive coordinator Jim Chaney has what it takes. But he doesn't have a quality quarterback. And Tennessee very well could be sitting at home in the postseason because of that.
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Rivals.com Staff
<SCRIPT language=javascript>document.write("<div id=contentcontainer style='font-size: " + currentsize + "pt;'>");</SCRIPT>At the College Football Roundtable each week, we ask each member of the coverage staff for his opinion about a topic in the sport.
This week's question: Which team do you think will be most hampered by its quarterback situation this season?
<!--Start Image--><SCRIPT language=Javascript>document.write(insertImage('/IMAGES/Player/video/KEVINCRAFT250_0327.JPG', '', 0, 300, 250, 1, 'Kevin Craft lost the starting job at UCLA in the spring.', '', 1246738743000, '', 1014, 'Align=Left'));</SCRIPT><TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width=258 align=left border=0><TBODY><TR><TD width=252>
— OLIN BUCHANAN
I will be interested to see how USC fares under center. This will be the first time Pete Carroll has had to replace a quarterback in consecutive seasons since taking over USC in 2001. There is no doubt Carroll was peeved to see Mark Sanchez turn pro early (remember those curt and sharp news conference remarks?). Maybe Carroll sensed or knew none of the quarterbacks on his roster were fully ready for prime time. Well, ready or not, sophomore Aaron Corp is the man. He is 2-for-4 for 14 yards in his career. And should he struggle, true freshman Matt Barkley may be the man. I know each is talented, but struggles have to be expected. Good thing the Trojans will feature a good line and outstanding skill-position talent. If all else fails, Mitch Mustain is No. 3 on the depth chart. Unlike Corp or Barkley, Mustain has extensive experience from his days at Arkansas. — TOM DIENHART
All you need to know about the quarterback situation at Michigan is that the Wolverines courted Greg Paulus early in the summer. That was after true freshman Tate Forcier beat out junior Nick Sheridan, part of the lackluster duo at quarterback a year ago. You can see why Sheridan lost his job. The offense's ineptitude rubbed off on the rest of the team last season. Only 10 offenses spent less time on the field; working quickly is fine if a team can score, but Michigan scored only 20.3 points per game. Those numbers contributed to a disappointing defense. At stops as an assistant at Tulane and Clemson and as coach West Virginia, Rich Rodriguez has been a part of staffs that have shown a knack for turning things around in the second season. Continuing that trend will be most important at quarterback. The rest of the team is bowl-worthy. If the quarterback isn't, Rodriguez will be on thin ice as Michigan's coach in year three. — DAVID FOX
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— MIKE HUGUENIN
Lost in the hoopla surrounding new Tennessee coach Lane Kiffin's ability to attract a top-10 recruiting class on such short notice was that the Volunteers didn't sign a scholarship quarterback. The only quarterback Tennessee added in the offseason was walk-on Mike Rozier, a former minor-league baseball player who originally signed with North Carolina in 2004. That means the Vols again must rely on Jonathan Crompton and Nick Stephens, who didn't do anything last season to indicate they're ready to lead a team to SEC title contention. Crompton completed 51.5 percent of his passes last season with five interceptions and four touchdowns. Stephens connected on 48.5 percent of his attempts, with four touchdowns and three interceptions. Tennessee has an outstanding defense anchored by strong safety Eric Berry, one of the nation's best players regardless of position. The Vols also should have a solid rushing attack. If they get merely average production from their quarterback, they potentially could be a top 25 team. But the quarterbacks on this roster must improve quite a bit from their 2008 performances before they can be considered average.Michigan should present no problem to Notre Dame if they have any type of defense at all. They will have a Freshman QB starting his 2nd game of his career. Boston College is picked to finish 5th or 6th in the ACC Atlantic Division, so if the Irish do not play head games with themselves, they should have no problem there. Michigan State can be a headache, because they always play the Irish tough, especially in South Bend. USC is obviously going to be a major problem. Going to Pitt may be a problem, especially when you consider Notre Dame's recent 0-5 ATS effort in the game that follows the Navy game. 9 wins should be easy for the Irish. 10 is certainly doable. 8 and Weis should be fired.
Nice commentary
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[SIZE=-1]12:28 AM CDT on Tuesday, June 30, 2009
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Column by KEVIN SHERRINGTON / The Dallas Morning News | ksherrington@dallasnews.com
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When you plow into the side of an apartment at 2 o'clock in the morning, then flee the scene of the accident because you "needed to go home and go to bed," which, frankly, is where just about anyone should be headed at 2 a.m., it's hard for police to overlook your indiscretion.
Especially if you were text-messaging while driving.
And Lord knows what else you'd been up to.
Texas' Sergio Kindle, a Woodrow Wilson product, probably wouldn't have gotten away with that in any era, much less this one. After Mack Brown suspended him three games two years ago for DWI, it'll be interesting to see what Kindle gets this time.
<!--Start_Local_Custom_Inc-->Colleges Blog: Colleges
Sherrington: Message for Kindle ... nothing good ever happens after 2 a.m.
Kindle suffers concussion in accident
More Texas | Colleges
<!--End_Local_Custom_Inc-->Side note: I didn't know this, but apparently it's not a crime to leave the scene of an accident if you run into a building. A vehicle, yes. But not a building. Who knew? All you need to do is leave your name and phone number.
Maybe a tarp to cover the hole you left, too.
No one's saying Kindle was drunk. He left the scene, so it's a little hard to make the call. But had the resident of the apartment in question been in her room when Kindle crashed into it, the results could have been catastrophic.
At the very least, maybe it's time to give Sergio a curfew. Unless you're working at 2 a.m., pretty much everyone needs to be at home, not stuck in the wall of someone else's.
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[SIZE=-1]12:28 AM CDT on Tuesday, June 30, 2009
[/SIZE]
[SIZE=-1][/SIZE]
Column by KEVIN SHERRINGTON / The Dallas Morning News | ksherrington@dallasnews.com
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When you plow into the side of an apartment at 2 o'clock in the morning, then flee the scene of the accident because you "needed to go home and go to bed," which, frankly, is where just about anyone should be headed at 2 a.m., it's hard for police to overlook your indiscretion.
Especially if you were text-messaging while driving.
And Lord knows what else you'd been up to.
Texas' Sergio Kindle, a Woodrow Wilson product, probably wouldn't have gotten away with that in any era, much less this one. After Mack Brown suspended him three games two years ago for DWI, it'll be interesting to see what Kindle gets this time.
<!--Start_Local_Custom_Inc-->Colleges Blog: Colleges
Sherrington: Message for Kindle ... nothing good ever happens after 2 a.m.
Kindle suffers concussion in accident
More Texas | Colleges
<!--End_Local_Custom_Inc-->Side note: I didn't know this, but apparently it's not a crime to leave the scene of an accident if you run into a building. A vehicle, yes. But not a building. Who knew? All you need to do is leave your name and phone number.
Maybe a tarp to cover the hole you left, too.
No one's saying Kindle was drunk. He left the scene, so it's a little hard to make the call. But had the resident of the apartment in question been in her room when Kindle crashed into it, the results could have been catastrophic.
At the very least, maybe it's time to give Sergio a curfew. Unless you're working at 2 a.m., pretty much everyone needs to be at home, not stuck in the wall of someone else's.
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Just saw your post, Russ. You're right, the BC game SHOULD be a great revenge spot for ND. They've lost 6 in a row to BC off the top of my head and as a college football follower, I'm sure you remember Weis proclaiming in his introductory interview "I didn't come here to lose to the Michigan States and Boston Colleges". He's still yet to deliver on this promise.
Last year at Chestnut Hill was the worst game the ND offense played with the exception of the game at the Coliseum where they only gained 91 yards of total offense and didn't record a first down until the last play of the 3rd quarter. If you recall, the defense played remarkably well (could have very well been the shitty BC offense) only giving up 10 points (the other 7 game from pick-6) despite BC getting the ball near mid-field every possession.
Ideally, we go into the USC game 5-0 and play a 5-0 Southern Cal team. A loss wouldn't necessarily crush our season (we're supposed to be about a 10 point dog) but another 35-38 point blowout would be devastating. If we are competitive for the whole game with SC and look like we at least belong on the same field, then our confidence should remain solid heading into the BC game. ND doesn't reasonably expect to go undefeated this year and beat SC, but if we're planning on challenging for a BCS bowl, we need to be competitive against this top 5 team. A loss wouldn't necessarily make a big difference in how we play BC, but a blowout to USC--in my estimation--would necessitate a no play at this point.
From a wagering standpoint, your best scenario would probably be a tough loss to SC by about 10 points or so. A win would probably give a shitty line against the Eagles and going off of what I saw last year, Weis has problems coaching with leads, often calling off the dogs and reverting to a non-existent run game that only squanders big leads.
Weis has shown he has difficulties motivating the team and the two worse games of the year--or at least worst offensive performances (BC and USC)--other than the Syracuse debacle came after crushing losses: (1) BC came after ND blew a 17-3 halftime lead at home to Pitt and lost in triple OT (2) USC came after ND blew 23-10 4th quarter lead to Syracuse at home.
This team has shown that the tough, second-half blown (double-digit) leads have a lingering affect into the next week and I would imagine that another crushing defeat at the hands of the Trojans would have a similar impact on the team's psyche heading into a matchup against rival Boston College.
I figure I'll give a little preview of my team for you as some others have done here. In addition, throughout the year I'll give some inside information that might be useful (for instance, I know and hang out with many players on the team from playing basketball with them in the winter to going to parties at the football house on Saturday nights).
There are some things that many bettors would not know such as the USC and BC home games fall at the beginning/end of our fall break (Oct 17-Oct 24) and hopefully I'll be able to give some insight as to how the crowd should be, etc. For instance, I could see most students staying and getting obliterated Friday night and Saturday morning for the SC game and the crowd being out of control. But then on the flip side, many students might stay home the extra day and skip the BC game.
At any rate, if anyone has any questions about the team, just ask. I love talking ND football as much as anyone you can find. I also know there are other ND fans on this forum so hopefully they will contribute to my little preview. Will add more as the season closes in on us.
LOOK BACK
As most of you college football fans know, ND went 6-6 last year in the regular season and defeated Hawaii in the Hawaii Bowl 49-21 (score was 49-14 in the 3rd Quarter when most starters were taken out).
Week 1: a sign of things to come: ND narrowly escapes losing to San Diego State, thanks to a miracle fumble on the goal line late in the 4th quarter that would have given the Aztects a 2 score lead
Week 2: ND took advantage of the home crowd, rainy conditions, and 5 Wolverine turnovers to win 35-17 over our rivals
Week 3: a disappointing loss to Michigan State in East Lansing 23-7. ND had its chances the whole game but could never put it together. A win here might have given ND a top 25 ranking.
Week 4: ND then went on to take care of Purdue 38-21 with Clausen going 20-35, 275 yards, 3 TDs, 0 ints
Week 5: Beat Stanford at home in a game that was nowhere near as close as the final score 28-21 indicates with another spectacular performance by Clausen 29-40, 347 yds, 3 TDs, 0 ints
Week 6: Then ND travelled to #22 ranked UNC with a chance to once again move into the AP top 25. ND came out of the half with the ball and up 17-9, only to have Clausen's first pass picked off and returned for a TD. They went on to blow the game and lose 29-24. Michael Floyd had the ball down near the goalline on the last play of the game with a controversial fumble/knee down call ending the game.
Week 7: ND then get back on track with a hammering of Washington 33-7 in a game that could have easily been 50-0. Washington never got the ball across mid-field until later in the game when all the starters had been taken out.
Week 8: the week where everything turned to shit. Up 17-3 going into half, Weis once again decided to sit on the lead and get away from what had worked: Clausen flinging the ball to the extremely talented receivers sophomoe Golden Tate and freshman Michael Floyd. Instead he stubbornly depended on a non-existent running game that went 3 and out for basically the entire second half. Some other poor coaching decisions (going for it on 4th down at mid-field late in the game) and some stupid penalties (Harrison Smith's personal foul on a 3rd down stop that kept alive the eventual game-tying drive) put the game into overtime where poor coaching (run off left tackle, run off right tackle, incomplete pass) and a wide open miss by Clausen to Floyd cost the game.
Week 9: apparently still distraught over the second double-digit/second half-lead blown loss, ND goes to Chestnut Hill and plays their worst game of the year to date, losing 17-0. The defense actually played quite well only giving up 10 points despite BC getting the ball near mid-field every possession.
Week 10: ND defeats Navy 27-21 in another game that was almost blown by Weis taking his foot off the gas. ND was up 24-7 going into the 4th quarter and after a fumble by freshman Jonas Gray inside the 10 yard-line, Navy scores and goes on to receive two onside-kicks in a row to give us a scare. Thankfully the third one was recovered by the Irish.
Week 11: arguably the worst loss of the decade, a 24-23 loss to Homedawg's Syracuse Orange. Up 23-10 going into the 4th quarter, Weis, clearly not having learned the lesson from the first ten games, gets away from what had been working (Clausen throwing it to his playmaker receivers) and stubbornly tries to pound the run game giving the Orange time and field position to get back into the game. Syracuse scores the go-ahead TD with 42 seconds left and Brandon Walker's missed 53 yard-field goal as time expired allowed the 17 point dog Orange to avoid their third 10 loss season in Greg Robinson's four years.
Week 12: if possible things got worse with the 38-3 shellacking put on us by USC at the Coliseum. ND failed to record a first down until the final play of the 3rd quarter and only recorded 91 yards of total offense. Enough said. Freshman Michael Floyd, arguably Clausen's best weapon was hurt as was linebacker and this year's captain Brian Smith. Still no excuse. Only player who looked like he belonged on the field for ND was freshman corner Robert Blanton who picked off a Sanchez slant early in the game and played tough the entire game. If the Syracuse game didn't already have the alums/fans/students putting for-sale signs in front of Weis' house, this game sure did.
Week 13: after being secured of his job by AD Jack Swarbrick, ND went on to manhandle a Hawaii team that had historically played tough at home (almost beat #13 Cincinatti, blew 24-10 4th Q lead)* with Clausen throwing 22 of 26 (with 4 drops) for 401 yards, 5 TDs, and 0 interceptions in 3 quarters of work. Nevertheless, it was Hawaii. Many spoke of this game being the "first of next year" and trying to carry this momentum into next year.
Now that I've lived through that painful year, I need to decompress before diving into next year.*
2009-2010 SCHEDULE
September 5 Nevada 3:30 PM ET
September 12 at Michigan 3:30 PM ET
September 19 Michigan State 3:30 PM ET
September 26 at Purdue 8:00 PM ET
October 3 Washington 3:30 PM ET
October 17 USC 3:30 PM ET
October 24 Boston College 3:30 PM ET
October 31 Washington State 7:30 PM ET
November 7 Navy 2:30 PM ET
November 14 at Pittsburgh TBA
November 21 Connecticut 2:30 PM ET
November 28 at Stanford 8:00 PM ET
There are some things that many bettors would not know such as the USC and BC home games fall at the beginning/end of our fall break (Oct 17-Oct 24) and hopefully I'll be able to give some insight as to how the crowd should be, etc. For instance, I could see most students staying and getting obliterated Friday night and Saturday morning for the SC game and the crowd being out of control. But then on the flip side, many students might stay home the extra day and skip the BC game.
At any rate, if anyone has any questions about the team, just ask. I love talking ND football as much as anyone you can find. I also know there are other ND fans on this forum so hopefully they will contribute to my little preview. Will add more as the season closes in on us.
LOOK BACK
As most of you college football fans know, ND went 6-6 last year in the regular season and defeated Hawaii in the Hawaii Bowl 49-21 (score was 49-14 in the 3rd Quarter when most starters were taken out).
Week 1: a sign of things to come: ND narrowly escapes losing to San Diego State, thanks to a miracle fumble on the goal line late in the 4th quarter that would have given the Aztects a 2 score lead
Week 2: ND took advantage of the home crowd, rainy conditions, and 5 Wolverine turnovers to win 35-17 over our rivals
Week 3: a disappointing loss to Michigan State in East Lansing 23-7. ND had its chances the whole game but could never put it together. A win here might have given ND a top 25 ranking.
Week 4: ND then went on to take care of Purdue 38-21 with Clausen going 20-35, 275 yards, 3 TDs, 0 ints
Week 5: Beat Stanford at home in a game that was nowhere near as close as the final score 28-21 indicates with another spectacular performance by Clausen 29-40, 347 yds, 3 TDs, 0 ints
Week 6: Then ND travelled to #22 ranked UNC with a chance to once again move into the AP top 25. ND came out of the half with the ball and up 17-9, only to have Clausen's first pass picked off and returned for a TD. They went on to blow the game and lose 29-24. Michael Floyd had the ball down near the goalline on the last play of the game with a controversial fumble/knee down call ending the game.
Week 7: ND then get back on track with a hammering of Washington 33-7 in a game that could have easily been 50-0. Washington never got the ball across mid-field until later in the game when all the starters had been taken out.
Week 8: the week where everything turned to shit. Up 17-3 going into half, Weis once again decided to sit on the lead and get away from what had worked: Clausen flinging the ball to the extremely talented receivers sophomoe Golden Tate and freshman Michael Floyd. Instead he stubbornly depended on a non-existent running game that went 3 and out for basically the entire second half. Some other poor coaching decisions (going for it on 4th down at mid-field late in the game) and some stupid penalties (Harrison Smith's personal foul on a 3rd down stop that kept alive the eventual game-tying drive) put the game into overtime where poor coaching (run off left tackle, run off right tackle, incomplete pass) and a wide open miss by Clausen to Floyd cost the game.
Week 9: apparently still distraught over the second double-digit/second half-lead blown loss, ND goes to Chestnut Hill and plays their worst game of the year to date, losing 17-0. The defense actually played quite well only giving up 10 points despite BC getting the ball near mid-field every possession.
Week 10: ND defeats Navy 27-21 in another game that was almost blown by Weis taking his foot off the gas. ND was up 24-7 going into the 4th quarter and after a fumble by freshman Jonas Gray inside the 10 yard-line, Navy scores and goes on to receive two onside-kicks in a row to give us a scare. Thankfully the third one was recovered by the Irish.
Week 11: arguably the worst loss of the decade, a 24-23 loss to Homedawg's Syracuse Orange. Up 23-10 going into the 4th quarter, Weis, clearly not having learned the lesson from the first ten games, gets away from what had been working (Clausen throwing it to his playmaker receivers) and stubbornly tries to pound the run game giving the Orange time and field position to get back into the game. Syracuse scores the go-ahead TD with 42 seconds left and Brandon Walker's missed 53 yard-field goal as time expired allowed the 17 point dog Orange to avoid their third 10 loss season in Greg Robinson's four years.
Week 12: if possible things got worse with the 38-3 shellacking put on us by USC at the Coliseum. ND failed to record a first down until the final play of the 3rd quarter and only recorded 91 yards of total offense. Enough said. Freshman Michael Floyd, arguably Clausen's best weapon was hurt as was linebacker and this year's captain Brian Smith. Still no excuse. Only player who looked like he belonged on the field for ND was freshman corner Robert Blanton who picked off a Sanchez slant early in the game and played tough the entire game. If the Syracuse game didn't already have the alums/fans/students putting for-sale signs in front of Weis' house, this game sure did.
Week 13: after being secured of his job by AD Jack Swarbrick, ND went on to manhandle a Hawaii team that had historically played tough at home (almost beat #13 Cincinatti, blew 24-10 4th Q lead)* with Clausen throwing 22 of 26 (with 4 drops) for 401 yards, 5 TDs, and 0 interceptions in 3 quarters of work. Nevertheless, it was Hawaii. Many spoke of this game being the "first of next year" and trying to carry this momentum into next year.
Now that I've lived through that painful year, I need to decompress before diving into next year.*
2009-2010 SCHEDULE
September 5 Nevada 3:30 PM ET
September 12 at Michigan 3:30 PM ET
September 19 Michigan State 3:30 PM ET
September 26 at Purdue 8:00 PM ET
October 3 Washington 3:30 PM ET
October 17 USC 3:30 PM ET
October 24 Boston College 3:30 PM ET
October 31 Washington State 7:30 PM ET
November 7 Navy 2:30 PM ET
November 14 at Pittsburgh TBA
November 21 Connecticut 2:30 PM ET
November 28 at Stanford 8:00 PM ET
IrishTim
What is your take on the opener with Nevada. Nevada has two very capable offensive weapons in Kaepenick and Taua and could be the next Boise St type team to emerge. I think they are experienced and talented enough to play ND on the road but if Clausen is on the secondary appears to be Nevada's weakness and they may not be able to rush Clausen effectively either. Chris Ault, the Nevada coach, is a good one and I can see Nevada actually winnig 9 or 10 games this year. I know Weis is feeling some pressure and this is a game they should win, pressure or no pressure. I think you are right about not knowing how to play with a lead.
I am not sure the Hawaii game really proved anything. I am afraid that if Nevada shows up and pops one in the endzone early that Weis is going to regress and Clausen might start to press (he seems to have some mock-heroic qualities), whatever the hell that is. I guess what I mean is that Clausen seems to be somewhat of a front runner. What is your take on Clausen and the season opener in particular?
What is your take on the opener with Nevada. Nevada has two very capable offensive weapons in Kaepenick and Taua and could be the next Boise St type team to emerge. I think they are experienced and talented enough to play ND on the road but if Clausen is on the secondary appears to be Nevada's weakness and they may not be able to rush Clausen effectively either. Chris Ault, the Nevada coach, is a good one and I can see Nevada actually winnig 9 or 10 games this year. I know Weis is feeling some pressure and this is a game they should win, pressure or no pressure. I think you are right about not knowing how to play with a lead.
I am not sure the Hawaii game really proved anything. I am afraid that if Nevada shows up and pops one in the endzone early that Weis is going to regress and Clausen might start to press (he seems to have some mock-heroic qualities), whatever the hell that is. I guess what I mean is that Clausen seems to be somewhat of a front runner. What is your take on Clausen and the season opener in particular?
Nice take form a Notre Dame homer, though I see a bit of excuse making. The fact is that Notre Dame is simply has not been that good of a team. Certainly not in the Top 10. They had to soften their schedule up to the point of where it is now rediculous. The Irish had to get back into a bowl game, so they come up with this schedule. The truth is that Clauson is not that good of a QB. Now he has his entire offense back, minus 1 lineman. There should be no excuses for Notre Dame this year. The truth of the matter is that this is as good as it is going to get for Notre Dame. Between a schedule that our local high school team could break even with, and all of Charlies seniors coming back, the Irish had better win 10 games. If not, Weis should be fired. I also think that this is Notre Dame's best chance to beat USC. Next year, they have to play USC in L.A., and USC returns a ton of players. It could be one of the worst beating Notre Dame takes next year. Now I know we have Notre Dame fans in here, and I wonder just how many losses to USC they will accept out of their head coach. At USC, continous losses to Notre Dame got you fired. The Irish have lost 7 in a row, and Fat Charlie has lost 4 of those. Will you Irish fans stand for a 5th loss this season, knowing that #6 awaits them in L.A. next season?
Hey russ. I think you're spot on with this post. Even Kapernick sitting out the spring to heal an injured ankle, the Wolfpack offense with that veteran running back corp is still in position for a stellar season. In addition to Kaepenick and Taua they also get back Luke Lippincot who led the Wac in rushing in 2007 who was granted a 6th year.
Much is expected of the improving defensive line who helped Nevada to a #6 rush defense ranking last season and returns 1st Team All-WAC DE Kevin Basped. As you said, the next step will be to generate a better pass rush to help out a secondary that was last in the nation last season in pass defense.
Phil Steele has them ranked #50 which is higher than every team on their regular season schedule except USC (#4), Michigan State (#30), Stanford (#32), and Michigan (#36) so theoretically Nevada is the 5th toughest game of the regular season.
Needless to say, this isn't the typical first game of the season versus Charleston Southern (Flordia) or San Jose State (USC) or Louisiana Monroe (Texas).
Pretty insightful, Russ, I have to agree with you here. I mean, after getting crushed 33-3 by Georgia Tech in the opener at home two years ago and requiring a miracle to beat SDSt last year, you've got to imagine they'll come out this year ready to play if Weis has learned anything.
Clausen definitely has the capability of piling it on with big numbers/stats when the team has a big lead (Hawaii most notably, Stanford/Purdue games as well). The two times I really recall him choking this year was the first play when we had the ball with a 17-9 lead in the second half and he threw it right to Sturdivant who took it all the way back. The other one was in one of the OTs against Pitt when Floyd broke WIDE open running into the endzone (as in no one was within 10 yards of him) and Clausen threw it out of the back of the endzone. I think they ended up taking the FG in that OT but lost it in the next one on Walker's missed FG.
Anyway, I do have to question whether it is Clausen or Weis' play-calling that hampered him in some games. Weis declared before the season last year that they were going to "pound it" with the 3-pronged running attack of Hughes, Allen, and Aldridge but without an OLine, this fantasy was quickly put to rest. Nevertheless, Weis refused to just admit that he couldn't run the ball with this team and let Clausen and the WR playmakers take control and he stubbornly insisted on running it up the middle for no-gains all season long.
Here's my take on Clausen and feel free to call me out if it's too homerish: we all know about the hype from HS as the QB of the decade, etc. and many people are already calling him a bust and disappointment after only two years. Everything must be taken in context. Clausen spent his first year running around for his life taking like 35 sacks and it's hard not to believe this made him a little gunshy and quick to throw the ball away. Weis and Clausen have been working on Clausen's footwork and movement in the pocket (Weis using tapes of Tom Brady who isn't very fast but one of the best in the game at moving in the pocket and keeping a play alive) so this area of his game should improve. The other big problems he had the last two years was not looking away defenders which caused a few picks that should've been completions and trusting his strong arm to make throws that shouldn't have been made.
That said, Clausen is still the among the most accurate passers in the game today. He pitched a perfect game in Hawaii (22 for 26 with 4 dropped balls, 5 TDs, no INTS, 400 yards) and showed numerous times throughout the year why he was the #1 QB in high school with some unbelievable throws, especially on the deep balls where he showed tremendous accuracy.
If you look at the numbers it is not only way too early, but inaccurate, to call Clausen a bust or disappointment. Sure they haven't won a BCS game or anything with him yet, but it's important to remember that he's basically played on a time with a mediocre defense and a fat and slow OLine with no rushing attack. First of all, let's look at the numbers comparing Clausen to his classmates. To this point, Clausen has easily been the best quarterback of his top 15 peers in his class. The only quarterback of the same year who has better stats that I've seen? Yup, Nevada's Colin Kaepernick with 2849 yards, a 132 rating, 54% completion percentage, 22 TDs and 7 INTS but he redshirted and is actually a year ahead of Clausen.
Rating Yards TDs Int Comp %
Jimmy Clausen 132 3172 25 17 61%
Ryan Mallett (2007) 105 892 7 5 42%
Tyrod Taylor 103 1036 2 7 57%
John Brantley 111 235 3 1 64%
Aaron Corp 58 14 0 0 50%
Stephen Garcia 113 832 6 8 53%
Logan Gray DNP
Clint Brewster Transfer
Cameron Newton 72 14 0 0 50%
Jarrett Lee 116 1873 13 16 53%
Robert Marve 107 1293 9 13 54%
Willy Korn 119 216 1 1 68%
Chris Forcier 55 22 1 1 27%
Pat Bostick 97 270 1 4 53%
Mike Paulus 21 33 0 2 31%
That's Clausen compared to his classmates. Comparing him to his sophomore predecessors, he still looks to be in good shape. Not there yet, but in position to be a great QB, especially if he can make the Brady-like leap from sophomore to junior year.
(1) After his sophomore year, Matthew Stafford, had a 128.9 rating (compared to Clausen's 132), threw for 2,523 yards (compared to Clausen's 3172), 19 touchdowns (compared to Clausen's 25), 10 interceptions (better than Clausen's 17) and for a 55.7% (completion percentage (compared to Clausen's 62%). And that was on a Georgia team that averaged 4.6 yards per carry versus Notre Dame's 3.4 yards per carry last season. Clausen, behind a much less balanced offense and on a far less successful team, was ahead of Stafford in almost every statistical category at the same point.
(2) What about Sanchez, the second quarterback taken in the NFL draft who came in with similar hype as Clausen? His stats were far worse than Clausen's after Sanchez's Junior year (a year ahead of Clausen) and Sanchez's sophomore stats (the same as Clausen's last year) were atrocious.
(3) Should have been Heisman trophy winner Vince Young completed 58% of his passes and threw for 6 touchdown passes against 7 interceptions his sophomore year. He didn't play at all as a true freshmen.
(4) Heisman trophy winner Carson Palmer completed 55 % of his passes for 2,941 yards and 16 TDs with 18 interceptions as a sophomore.
(5) Heisman trophy winner Matt Leinart didn't take meaningful snaps until his Junior year, his third in the program.
(6) Heisman trophy winner Troy Smith didn't play as a freshmen, but completed 55% of his passes for 8 TDs and 3 Ints as a sophomore.
(7) Brady Quinn completed 54% of his passes for 2,586 yards, 17 TDs and 10 Ints as a Sophomore.
Outside of the Tebow/McCoy/Bradford standard, Clausen has performed well, he's just not been a savior like those guys have been...yet.
I remain concerned that the pounding Clausen was forced/allowed to suffer through in his frosh season will come back to haunt him -- in a manner almost like PTSD, since it was that scarring -- when he comes up against a difficult defense with a ferocious pass rush like USC or BC as we say last year. If he learns to just remember, without reliving, that first season, the sky will be the limit for him. However, I fear that may not happen until he turns pro and relearns under a different coach.
It still remains in all likelihood that Clausen's numbers will only improve. But the success or failure of this year's team will still fall squarely and solely on Charlie's shoulders, and the team will only succeed when he learns how to coach a complete game and not take his foot off the throat until 2 hours after the game.
I didn't talk about the Nevada game as much as I intended and as you can see I clearly got off on a tanget re: Clausen. I do think Nevada will contend for the WAC title versus Boise St. this year, and it will have one of the best quarterbacks on the schedule that ND faces. It's not absurd to consider Mountain West a better conference than the Big East, but if we could add Nevada and Boise State to MWC-top to bottom it might pull ahead of the Pac 10 in my opinion.
I have to disagree, ND didn't "soften up their schedule to the point where it was ridiculous". It's not their fault that Michigan, BC, MSU, Washington, and Purdue aren't the teams they once were (even not as good as when the contracts were signed years ago). While as a fan, I certainly wish we could play top 10 teams every week, you have to understand that the ADs have some difficult choices to make. When scheduling non-conference games AD’s are left choosing between an attractive home and home with a solid program from another conference or paying a non BCS or FCS opponent to show up at your place for a one time beat down. The former can work out great if all goes well. The winners of the 2005 and 2006 Texas vs. Ohio State matchups both ended up playing for the National Title and those respective early season wins boosted their legitimacy in the polls. Conversely the same tactic backfired on the Buckeyes, and the Big Ten in general, last fall when USC put an early season beat down on Ohio State at the Coliseum. That takes us back to the less risky option to schedule a cupcake, sell 80,000 tickets and take your chances in the polls based on your conference schedule. The fan bases don't necessarily like it that Saturday but come bowl season they are happy to have an extra W and a trip to a better bowl game. Perception is reality with fickle fan bases and at the end of the day 10-2 with a couple of cupcake wins looks better than 8-4 with a couple of close losses in great games. That is particularly true when selling the "state of the program" to boosters.
Luckily for ND, our new athletic director is insistent on improving the strength of schedule, locking in a home and home with Oklahoma in the next few years, and talking with Miami, Texas, and Wisconsin about future matchups.
And lastly, as I'm sure you know, teams create their schedules and sign the contracts 4+ years in advance. For instance, ND has 6 games already signed for the 2016 season. Now nobody knows how good those teams (UConn, Purdue, USC, Navy, Michigan, Michigan State) are going to be 7 years from now. Who knows, USC could get slapped with a bunch of violation, Pete Carroll steps down, scholarships limited, can't play in bowl games, etc. and they aren't even a top 25 team by then. UConn could sign the next Tim Tebow, some kid who's in grammar school right now, and be unbelievable. It's the nature of college football, you never know.
Enough about schedules, we can talk about this in a different thread. Onto this team and these players who had nothing to do with the schedule.
I addressed Clausen in my previous post. Unless you're going to hold him to the Bradford/Tebow standard (both of whom who were surrounded by significantly more talent, especially on the OLine and the tailback corps), then Clausen has played quite well up until this point. And keep in mind, all those numbers he put up which surpass every single one of his classmates and many predecessors (Stafford, Brady Quinn, Vince Young, Colt McCoy, Mark Sanchez, Carson Palmer, etc.) at this point in the careers. And Clausen did it behind an OLine that gave up 58 sacks his freshman year without any good receivers and running game that only amounted 3 yards per carry his sophomore year.
Now he certainly hasn't done enough yet, but give the kid a chance. It's way too early to be calling him a bust yet.
I will agree that there is no excuse this year, ND will likely be favored in every game aside from Southern Cal, so that puts them at 11-1. I'll be generous and give them a game they shouldn't lose but do (MSU, BC, Stanford, someone like that). 10 wins should be the standard or Weis is gone, in my opinion. It is the first time he has had 4 full classes of his recruits and they must produce.
But I do need to correct one point: much more important to the team is that it is returning all the juniors. The senior class doesn't really have anyone (on offense) other than Sam Young who to this point has been a large disappointment after being the number 1 recruit/Olinemen in the country. Aside from Young, no seniors really contribute much on offense. Aldridge, the senior running back was 3rd on the depth chart and has been moved to full back. The best receivers are in my opinion Michael Floyd (sophomore next year), Golden Tate (will be a junior), Duval Kumara (will be junior), and probably Shaquelle Evans (who will be a freshman). The only person who should be taking handoffs next year is Armando Allen who will be a junior and of course Clausen will be a junior next year. There really isn't much senior talent on either side of the ball, but especially offense.
I agree with you here on all your points. USC has been a premier team (arguably team of the decade) since Weis arrived and how we play them is a good measurement of how the team is progressing. Since the controversial loss to them in 2005, things have only gotten worse, bottoming out the past two years with 38 and 35 point losses. Losing so often to USC is bad enough, but getting embarrassed is unacceptable to the fans/alums/boosters and will not be tolerated much longer, despite any success that ND may have getting to the BCS.
That sure does look like an nice conference. Aside from ND, there isn't much "star power" of the Texas/Alabama/Oklahoma-type caliber, but a lot of good, sneaky, underrated teams. Nearly all of them minus ND.
That said, I am opposed to ND joining a conference as are most ND fans. While it might benefit them in terms of perceived strength of schedule like it helps teams in the SEC or Big 12 where they can schedule division 3 schools and still have a great perceived SOS, I think the independence and uniqueness afforded by our status should be preserved. The less the perceived strength of your conference the more risky not playing good non-conference opponents becomes. For Non-BCS conference teams these quality non-conference matchups are a must to have any chance at a title shot. The crux of the issue is that the teams that need to play quality non-conference games really need to play them against the teams that don’t need to play them.
Aside from keeping the rivalry games (I really only care for USC, BC, MSU, Navy -- all the others could disappear for what I care), the money is the other issue.
Look at the numbers:
1. Texas - $72.95 million - 49,697 students
2. Georgia - $67.05 million - 33,959 students
3. Florida - $66.1 million - 50,912 students
4. Ohio State - $65.16 million - 51,818 students
5. Notre Dame - $59.77 million - 11,603 students
6. Auburn - $59.67 million - 23,547 students
7. Michigan - $57.46 million - 40,025 students
8. Alabama - $57.37 million - 23,838 students
9. Penn State - $53.76 million - 42,914 students
10. LSU - $52.68 million - 31,934 students
IrishTim
I have a post buried deep in the threat that addressed the fact that Notre Dame got something like 1.3million from the NCAA every year because they are not in a conference. They really have no incentive to get in one but if the did obviously the Big 11 would be a natural.
At this point I don't think anybody has to waste anytime defending their teams OOC schedules. There are no true incentives. Boise St has the #103 toughest schedule (only 17 easier then theirs), TCU is at #105, Ohio St is at #46, Penn St at #68 and they all get national attention anyway.
AD's in today competitive environment as almost as important as their coaches (and remember they are involved in all other sports too) and I am sure that any successful tenured AD has a lot of input and support every time they sign up a future opponent. Now that some coaches are stepping up to become AD;s (Bellotti/Oregon) maybe scheduling will take a new direction.
Thanks for your input. You breakdowns have been very insightful and I for one appreciate your candor.
I have a post buried deep in the threat that addressed the fact that Notre Dame got something like 1.3million from the NCAA every year because they are not in a conference. They really have no incentive to get in one but if the did obviously the Big 11 would be a natural.
At this point I don't think anybody has to waste anytime defending their teams OOC schedules. There are no true incentives. Boise St has the #103 toughest schedule (only 17 easier then theirs), TCU is at #105, Ohio St is at #46, Penn St at #68 and they all get national attention anyway.
AD's in today competitive environment as almost as important as their coaches (and remember they are involved in all other sports too) and I am sure that any successful tenured AD has a lot of input and support every time they sign up a future opponent. Now that some coaches are stepping up to become AD;s (Bellotti/Oregon) maybe scheduling will take a new direction.
Thanks for your input. You breakdowns have been very insightful and I for one appreciate your candor.
