Injuries continue to plague teams during fall practices. Today Buff lost a key player. Now the teams are beginning to zero in on their opponents for week one and are even looking ahead to week two. Will the favorites continue to roll in early in the season? The lines are beginning to show a little battle fatigue as they have been up long enough to have absorbed a lot of pounding. I always loved that movie line "I love the smell of napalm in the morning." Well if you can't smell it by now you never will. I know there are a lot of browsers and lurkers out there, people who don't make many posts or contributions. Now is the time to step up. Let us know what you know about the teams you follow, the good, the bad, and the ugly. Step up, we need you. This is crunch time and if you are on a forum you should share, it is give and take. Some do research better, some pick games better, some have information that can be helpful. Find your niche. I started posting and doing research back in January and there is stuff way back in this thread that is still good info. But anything that can help the cause at this point is good. We are not all going to be on the same sides in every situation but good info is good info. At this point any injury to a key player and developments in position competitions (especially QB's) are more important than ever. If you don't want to start a new thread throw it in here.
from philsteele.com (Home Field Advanages)
Daily Blog - Wednesday August 26th
I have gotten many requests to do a blog to explain how I compute each teams home field edge in the magazine. I have 27 different factors in my computer’s grade of a team. I then compare the computer’s analysis to my own and make the final decision.
While I mention that there are 27 factors in my home field computer ratings, there are actually 9 individual factors that I use each year and I then combine the grades for the last 3 years giving half of the grade to last year, 30% to the numbers from two years ago and 20% to the computer rankings from 3 years ago.
Today I will go over the 9 different areas that I use to rate home field edge. The first category is the stadium capacity. The largest stadium in the country last year was Michigan which held 106,201 and my computer gave them the maximum score of 6 for that category. My home field edges go from 0 to 6 in the magazine so they have the same scale in the computer. The smallest capacity is Idaho’s Kibbie Dome which seated just 16,000 and they received a 0 in that category. The rest of the capacities are done with a simple equation of Capacity-16,000 divided by 15,034. The reason I divide by 15,034 is that Michigan at 106,201-16,000 = 90,201 and 90,201 divided by 6 (0-6 scale) = 15,034. You can figure out what your favorite team is graded in this category by using this simple equation.
The second category is actual attendance reported by the school in 2008. Once again Michigan was at the top with 108,571 and this time the team at the bottom was Kent St which averaged just 10,639 fans per game last year. I used the same method as above to turn this data into a 0 to 6 rating where Michigan received a 6, Kent St a 0 and as an example Idaho with an attendance of 15,340 earned a 0.29 grade.
The third category is % of capacity. Let’s face it, a crowd of 45,000 in a 45,000 seat stadium is louder than a crowd of 45,000 in a half-full 90,000 seat stadium. The winner in this category last year was Oregon at 108% of capacity as they had an avg attendance of 58,444 with a listed capacity of 54,000. There were 20 schools that had a larger average attendance than their listed capacity last year. At the bottom of this category was Temple which brought in an average of 15,582 fans to their 68,532 seat stadium which is just 22.7%. Three teams had an average attendance of less than 30% capacity and 8 had an average attendance of less than 50% of capacity.
The next category is last years SU win/loss record for each team at home. There were 18 teams last year that finished with an undefeated record at home while there were 3 teams last year that were actually winless at home. Those 3 teams were North Texas, Idaho and Washington.
The fifth category is the last 3 years SU records at home. Oklahoma, Boise St and BYU are all undefeated at home in that span and USC is 17-1. At the bottom of the scale are Duke, Idaho and FIU who have each won just 3 home games in the last 3 years but Duke has 16 losses for the worst record while Idaho has 14 and FIU just 10. Once again this is on a 0-6 point basis.
The next category is the last 5 years records at home. Boise St comes in #1 here at a perfect 32-0 with Oklahoma and USC each losing just 1 game at home. Florida, Wisconsin and Texas are next up with just 3 losses. Duke is at the bottom at 6-24 over 5 years while Washington is 7-25 and Idaho is 6-18.
Sometimes teams compile great home records because they play a bunch of cupcakes. Sometimes teams compile a weak record because they play a large amount of ranked teams. The easiest way to determine if a team played above or below expectations is to look at their records against the Las Vegas spread. If a team was favored to win by 30 that means the opponent was weak and a 3 point win is unimpressive vs that caliber of opponent. I weigh each of the different factors and the actual home win record is given twice the weight of the ATS record. I used the records for last year, the last 3 years and the last 5 years. The best record over the last 5 years is UCLA at 24-8 with TCU #2 at 20-7 and Kansas #3 at 21-8. At the bottom are Western Kentucky at 1-6, Washington at 9-23 and Duke at 8-18.
I then factor in the 9 categories from the 2007 and 2006 seasons which gives me 27 categories for the computer to factor in and I have them appropriately weighted. The final category is my own personal grade. I have 12 TV’s in front of me and watch 12 games all day long on Saturday and watch every nighttime game on ESPN. I can hear the crowd noise at each stadium and I weigh in how many times I thought it was a factor in a game. I look at how good the team has been the last 5 years and what percentage of games they win at home and on the road in my personal evaluation. The computer has Oklahoma #1 at 5.5 home edge with USC #2 at 5.25 and Ohio St #3 at 5.2. At the bottom the computer has Duke #120 at 1.229, Utah St #119 at 1.56 and Idaho #118 at 1.64.
Finally I look at the computer’s grade and then tweak it to where I think it should be. I gave two teams a 6 point home edge in this year’s magazine in Virginia Tech and Boise St. Oklahoma, Penn St and Texas Tech all earned 5.5 grades from me. At the bottom of the scale I gave a 2 point home edge to Duke, FIU, Kent St and Eastern Michigan. To see the home edge I gave your favorite team check out the right hand magazine page in my national magazine.
Writing this article I have just come up with at least 4 new categories for next year’s home field analysis. I will include how many upsets a team has pulled at home and how many times a team suffered an upset loss at home. I will also include how many ranked teams each squad faced at home and what there record was. If there are any other categories you think I should include in my computer’s analysis of home field edge for next year you can go on my Fan Page for Facebook (CLICK HERE) and note them there and I will evalute each and every idea.
Also in next year’s magazine I will include a road power rating for each team and use the contrast between home and away performances to reflect in each!
Daily Blog - Wednesday August 26th
I have gotten many requests to do a blog to explain how I compute each teams home field edge in the magazine. I have 27 different factors in my computer’s grade of a team. I then compare the computer’s analysis to my own and make the final decision.
While I mention that there are 27 factors in my home field computer ratings, there are actually 9 individual factors that I use each year and I then combine the grades for the last 3 years giving half of the grade to last year, 30% to the numbers from two years ago and 20% to the computer rankings from 3 years ago.
Today I will go over the 9 different areas that I use to rate home field edge. The first category is the stadium capacity. The largest stadium in the country last year was Michigan which held 106,201 and my computer gave them the maximum score of 6 for that category. My home field edges go from 0 to 6 in the magazine so they have the same scale in the computer. The smallest capacity is Idaho’s Kibbie Dome which seated just 16,000 and they received a 0 in that category. The rest of the capacities are done with a simple equation of Capacity-16,000 divided by 15,034. The reason I divide by 15,034 is that Michigan at 106,201-16,000 = 90,201 and 90,201 divided by 6 (0-6 scale) = 15,034. You can figure out what your favorite team is graded in this category by using this simple equation.
The second category is actual attendance reported by the school in 2008. Once again Michigan was at the top with 108,571 and this time the team at the bottom was Kent St which averaged just 10,639 fans per game last year. I used the same method as above to turn this data into a 0 to 6 rating where Michigan received a 6, Kent St a 0 and as an example Idaho with an attendance of 15,340 earned a 0.29 grade.
The third category is % of capacity. Let’s face it, a crowd of 45,000 in a 45,000 seat stadium is louder than a crowd of 45,000 in a half-full 90,000 seat stadium. The winner in this category last year was Oregon at 108% of capacity as they had an avg attendance of 58,444 with a listed capacity of 54,000. There were 20 schools that had a larger average attendance than their listed capacity last year. At the bottom of this category was Temple which brought in an average of 15,582 fans to their 68,532 seat stadium which is just 22.7%. Three teams had an average attendance of less than 30% capacity and 8 had an average attendance of less than 50% of capacity.
The next category is last years SU win/loss record for each team at home. There were 18 teams last year that finished with an undefeated record at home while there were 3 teams last year that were actually winless at home. Those 3 teams were North Texas, Idaho and Washington.
The fifth category is the last 3 years SU records at home. Oklahoma, Boise St and BYU are all undefeated at home in that span and USC is 17-1. At the bottom of the scale are Duke, Idaho and FIU who have each won just 3 home games in the last 3 years but Duke has 16 losses for the worst record while Idaho has 14 and FIU just 10. Once again this is on a 0-6 point basis.
The next category is the last 5 years records at home. Boise St comes in #1 here at a perfect 32-0 with Oklahoma and USC each losing just 1 game at home. Florida, Wisconsin and Texas are next up with just 3 losses. Duke is at the bottom at 6-24 over 5 years while Washington is 7-25 and Idaho is 6-18.
Sometimes teams compile great home records because they play a bunch of cupcakes. Sometimes teams compile a weak record because they play a large amount of ranked teams. The easiest way to determine if a team played above or below expectations is to look at their records against the Las Vegas spread. If a team was favored to win by 30 that means the opponent was weak and a 3 point win is unimpressive vs that caliber of opponent. I weigh each of the different factors and the actual home win record is given twice the weight of the ATS record. I used the records for last year, the last 3 years and the last 5 years. The best record over the last 5 years is UCLA at 24-8 with TCU #2 at 20-7 and Kansas #3 at 21-8. At the bottom are Western Kentucky at 1-6, Washington at 9-23 and Duke at 8-18.
I then factor in the 9 categories from the 2007 and 2006 seasons which gives me 27 categories for the computer to factor in and I have them appropriately weighted. The final category is my own personal grade. I have 12 TV’s in front of me and watch 12 games all day long on Saturday and watch every nighttime game on ESPN. I can hear the crowd noise at each stadium and I weigh in how many times I thought it was a factor in a game. I look at how good the team has been the last 5 years and what percentage of games they win at home and on the road in my personal evaluation. The computer has Oklahoma #1 at 5.5 home edge with USC #2 at 5.25 and Ohio St #3 at 5.2. At the bottom the computer has Duke #120 at 1.229, Utah St #119 at 1.56 and Idaho #118 at 1.64.
Finally I look at the computer’s grade and then tweak it to where I think it should be. I gave two teams a 6 point home edge in this year’s magazine in Virginia Tech and Boise St. Oklahoma, Penn St and Texas Tech all earned 5.5 grades from me. At the bottom of the scale I gave a 2 point home edge to Duke, FIU, Kent St and Eastern Michigan. To see the home edge I gave your favorite team check out the right hand magazine page in my national magazine.
Writing this article I have just come up with at least 4 new categories for next year’s home field analysis. I will include how many upsets a team has pulled at home and how many times a team suffered an upset loss at home. I will also include how many ranked teams each squad faced at home and what there record was. If there are any other categories you think I should include in my computer’s analysis of home field edge for next year you can go on my Fan Page for Facebook (CLICK HERE) and note them there and I will evalute each and every idea.
Also in next year’s magazine I will include a road power rating for each team and use the contrast between home and away performances to reflect in each!
There are many on here who have been kicking things around for months in anticipation of the 2009 season and especially week one. Many contributions have been made and there has been a lot of discussions. It kind of breaks down like this.
Phase 1 - Diehards with withdrawal symptoms who were doing original research before any publications came out or practices had begun. Discussion was often spirited and we went thru the sensitive Florida/Tebow post BCSNC scenario.
Phase 2 - Began when spring practices started and there was more sharing, more discussion as everyone was trying to get a hold on how teams were beginning to shape up for 2009.
Phase 3 - Began when the Preseason magazines began circulating and things picked up again as more people were joining in and not many people were questioning what the magazines said and it reflected in the posts.
Not many of the Phase 1 posters were phased by the Preseason mags but many posters felt solace in the fact that they had good sources on which to base their opinions.
Phase 4 - Began when some of the polls came out and there was a lot of discussion about those. During this period many of us were becoming more sure of our concepts and discussions became more and more focused on week one matchups.
Phase 5 - Finally fall practices began and the line came out. So did the posters as more and more people began posting and voicing concern, opinions, or asking for others opinions. Good stuff, that is what a forum is for. My main point is that up to now most of the posters have done their homework have narrowed down their picks and even placed some bets. Now I am a first time forum guy and this is just an educated guess but beginning next week a lot of the services begin sending out their weekly newsletters and now we are going to see Phase 6.
Phase 6 will have all kinds of pseudo experts who will rely on their newsletters and services and be spewing it all over the place. I have been working towards week one for almost 8 months and now I am bracing for the storm. Tell me if I am wrong but is this where it gets crazy. Those of you who have been on here for a while know how to cull the posts, who knows their stuff and who doesn't, and when to speak up and when not to. I did not come on here to tail anyone and actually did not come on here to have somewere to post my picks. No ego involved at all.
I came on here to expose myself to as much as I could, to see how others approach handicapping, and to try to look at both sides of a matchup thru the eyes of others who see them differently than I do. I think week one is different than all of the other weeks and those who are prepared may reap their rewards. I myself have come full circle on two or three games but it is obvious we all see things differently. If I get lost in the maelstrom that lies ahead I just want to thank everyone who helped get me through the last 8 months. Conan, who probably protected the Holy Grail in another life and is someone who helps make this forum different from the rest. GS, who adds something to this forum that should never be taken for granted. ETG, Ducks, BS, Coach LT, and others who do their homework, have sound reasoning behind everything they post and many many others who made this last 8 months go be pretty quickly. BOL to everyone.
Phase 1 - Diehards with withdrawal symptoms who were doing original research before any publications came out or practices had begun. Discussion was often spirited and we went thru the sensitive Florida/Tebow post BCSNC scenario.
Phase 2 - Began when spring practices started and there was more sharing, more discussion as everyone was trying to get a hold on how teams were beginning to shape up for 2009.
Phase 3 - Began when the Preseason magazines began circulating and things picked up again as more people were joining in and not many people were questioning what the magazines said and it reflected in the posts.
Not many of the Phase 1 posters were phased by the Preseason mags but many posters felt solace in the fact that they had good sources on which to base their opinions.
Phase 4 - Began when some of the polls came out and there was a lot of discussion about those. During this period many of us were becoming more sure of our concepts and discussions became more and more focused on week one matchups.
Phase 5 - Finally fall practices began and the line came out. So did the posters as more and more people began posting and voicing concern, opinions, or asking for others opinions. Good stuff, that is what a forum is for. My main point is that up to now most of the posters have done their homework have narrowed down their picks and even placed some bets. Now I am a first time forum guy and this is just an educated guess but beginning next week a lot of the services begin sending out their weekly newsletters and now we are going to see Phase 6.
Phase 6 will have all kinds of pseudo experts who will rely on their newsletters and services and be spewing it all over the place. I have been working towards week one for almost 8 months and now I am bracing for the storm. Tell me if I am wrong but is this where it gets crazy. Those of you who have been on here for a while know how to cull the posts, who knows their stuff and who doesn't, and when to speak up and when not to. I did not come on here to tail anyone and actually did not come on here to have somewere to post my picks. No ego involved at all.
I came on here to expose myself to as much as I could, to see how others approach handicapping, and to try to look at both sides of a matchup thru the eyes of others who see them differently than I do. I think week one is different than all of the other weeks and those who are prepared may reap their rewards. I myself have come full circle on two or three games but it is obvious we all see things differently. If I get lost in the maelstrom that lies ahead I just want to thank everyone who helped get me through the last 8 months. Conan, who probably protected the Holy Grail in another life and is someone who helps make this forum different from the rest. GS, who adds something to this forum that should never be taken for granted. ETG, Ducks, BS, Coach LT, and others who do their homework, have sound reasoning behind everything they post and many many others who made this last 8 months go be pretty quickly. BOL to everyone.
Well said Russ. The past few months have been typically the older posters breaking down games and preparing well, whereas we can now expect to see a lot of first time posters stating how they are God's gift to handicapping and that they will win 80%. You've posted some great info and this should hopefully payoff week one.
And for the record, I like AZ week one. I think their offensive line dominates due to the size advantage and they defense shuts down CMU. I don't like to bet my team though because I'm typically biased towards them, but perhaps for half a unit or so I'll play them.
And for the record, I like AZ week one. I think their offensive line dominates due to the size advantage and they defense shuts down CMU. I don't like to bet my team though because I'm typically biased towards them, but perhaps for half a unit or so I'll play them.
