Looking ahead to next season

russ1945 · Jul 14, 2009

UoweDucks said:
Good Lord Russ.

I need to get some tylenol after trying to read that

I thought I cancelled it out. It did not print the way it was formatted. Can I e-mail you some tylenol. Actually might make some pretty nice wallpaper.

russ1945 · Jul 14, 2009

Official University Sites

I have been checking out individual university athletic sites and running into the following. Some have info on their site that you cannot print to paper. some sites want you to join or pay a fee to have access for certain kinds of information. These could be a great source of information but it is all about money I guess. It is still worth surfing around to the different sites and read what is accessible. Some have updated their depth charts since spring practice. Some have access to spring games or highlights. Worth checking out if you have questions about a certain team it may help.

Dawoofdaddy · Jul 14, 2009

UoweDucks said:
Good Lord Russ.

I need to get some tylenol after trying to read that

The fact that you or anybody here may have read more than 2 lines of that scares me.

hno:

russ1945 · Jul 14, 2009

DAWOOFDADDY said:
The fact that you or anybody here may have read more than 2 lines of that scares me.

hno:

It scrambled when I pasted it. I thought I deleted it. Oh well it broke the boredom.

russ1945 · Jul 15, 2009

from philsteele.com - coaches on hotseat

Phil Steele's Daily Blog - Tuesday July 14th

Last July I posted my Coaches on the Hot Seat article and here is how that looked in reverse order with what happened in 2008.
12. Charlie Weis, Notre Dame – Barely hung onto his job at the end of the regular season.
11. Chuck Long, San Diego St – Fired after season.
10. Steve Kragthorpe, Louisville – Opened 5-2 but survived despite losing final 5 games.
9. Tommy Bowden, Clemson – Fired midseason.
8. Mike Stoops – Arizona – Did what he needed to in guiding the Wildcats to a bowl win.
7. Joe Glenn – Wyoming – Fired after season.
6. Mike Sanford – UNLV – Upset Arizona St, beat Iowa St and did enough to survive another year.
5. Brent Guy – Utah St – Fired with one game left in regular season.
4. Kirk Ferentz – Iowa – Guided team to Jan 1 bowl romp and also a win over #1 Penn St.
3. Ron Prince – Kansas St – Despite a new contract was fired with 3 weeks left in the season.
2. Tyrone Willingham – Washington – Willingham resigned with 4 games left in the season.
1. Greg Robinson – Syracuse – He was fired with two games remaining in the season.
Here is this year’s list of coaches on the hot seat. I want the coaches to know that I am rooting for every one of them to have a good season and get off the hot seat. I know that coaches can do all the preparation and have a team poised to win but costly turnovers or injuries can result in some tough losses and the fans usually only look at the wins and losses. Here are the coaches that are on the hot seat in 2009.
13. Mike Price, UTEP – Price started out his tenure here with back-to-back 8-4 seasons but has since led the team to 3 losing seasons in a row. UTEP lost their 1st 3 games last year including a blowout loss at Buffalo and a 1 pt loss to cross-town rival New Mexico St and that was a hole they failed to climb out of and they finished the season 5-7 and short of a bowl again. I have the Miners pegged as my choice to grab the CUSA West title this year because they have 55 lettermen returning and the most favorable schedule in CUSA. A bowl trip will save Price’s job.
12. Randy Shannon, Miami FL – Though Shannon took Miami to a bowl in his 2nd year, they lost to Cal and finished at 7-6 which is certainly not a record that the Miami fans expect. Miami faces a killer schedule this year (#12 in my rankings), but I think Shannon has the talent available to make it off the hot seat in 2009.
11. Charlie Weis, Notre Dame – Charlie made my list last year and barely survived. He is probably on a hotter seat than most of the names on this list as another 6-6 or 8-5 season probably will not be tolerated. I have him here at #12 because I feel the Irish with their talent and their schedule will have a big year in 2009 and he will be off the hot seat. I think he would need to have at least 9 wins to feel secure.
10. Pat Hill, Fresno St – I am a Pat Hill fan and I love his motto, “Anyone, Anywhere, Anytime”. They have pulled off some startling upsets. Last year he was a candidate at several BCS schools early in the year but after being the WAC favorites in 2008 he was fighting for his job at Fresno at the end of the year. I am still stunned that he has not yet won a WAC title! Since the high point of his tenure when they were 8-1 and almost upset #1 USC (with Leinhart, Bush and White) he is just 20-21 and probably needs at least 7 or 8 wins to be around for a 14th year.
9. Todd Dodge, North Texas – Todd was expected to bring North Texas back to the top of the Sun Belt where they were from 2001-2004. In his first two years they have just 3 total wins and the defense has allowed 46.3 ppg and his high flying offense has averaged just 22.4 ppg, which means they are being outscored by an amazing 23.9 ppg. I expect better fortunes this year. He probably does not need a winning year but they have to be more competitive.
8. Doug Martin, Kent St – Here is another coach who has had some hard luck with injuries, blown leads, close losses, turnovers and poor special teams. His best year was 2006 when they went 6-6 and could have easily had a winning record. He does have 15 returning starters and loses just 13 lettermen from last year and takes on the softest schedule in the NCAA. He probably needs to avoid a losing season to be around for a 7th year.
7. Rich Rodriguez, Michigan – The Wolverines could be an underdog in as many as 7 games this year and they really must have a winning season. I think Rodriguez will get them to a decent bowl and make major strides just like he did in his 2nd year at West Virginia. Amazingly there are a lot of Michigan alumni who think Rodriguez runs a pass-happy spread offense! In his last 6 years at West Virginia his teams averaged 270 ypg rushing the football (148 ypg pass) while Michigan in that same span had 229 ypg PASSING and just 163 ypg rush.
6. Mark Snyder, Marshall – Snyder enters his 5th year at Marshall and is only 16-31 with 4 losing years out out of 4. He has not caught many breaks with turnovers, injuries and close losses and must get a bowl bid to stay in charge. He is another coach that I think will gain that elusive bowl bid and stick around, but a losing season would end his tenure.
5. Mike Sanford, UNLV – Sanford bought himself some time last year with their upset of a ranked Arizona St on the road and a home win vs a Big 12 school. I believe Sanford will also escape the hot seat this year with a winning season and a bowl bid and they could win as many as 8 games. The Rebels have had 5 losing seasons in a row (4 under Sanford) and anything short of a winning season will signal a coaching change.
4. Dan Hawkins – Colorado – CU fans were happy with the hire of a successful coach but the first 3 years have produced 3 losing records. They did get to a bowl in 2007 but when they lost the Independence Bowl they dropped to 6-7. Last year Nebraska needed a 57 yard FG at the end of the game to keep CU from 6-6 and a 2nd straight bowl. Hawkins has said 10 wins, no excuses. I do see 8 wins for CU and I see him escaping the hot seat.
3. Al Groh – Virginia – After a horrible 1-3 start last year which included an embarrassing 31-3 loss to Duke it looked like he was out the door in 2008. Virginia went 4-4 down the stretch and only lost to rival VT by 3 on the road or they could have landed a bowl. This looks like another rebuilding year and I believe Groh needs to get them to a bowl to hang on. When I analyze the schedule it looks like 6 wins will be hard to come by.
2. Bill Lynch – Indiana – Lynch did a great job taking over for the late Terry Hoeppner and he guided them to a rare bowl game in his first year. Last year did not go as planned as they finished 1-7 and were outgained by 177 ypg in Big Ten play which was by far the worst in the conference. This year they unexpectedly lose QB Kellen Lewis and I project them to finish in the Big Ten basement for a 2nd straight year. There are some very successful up-and-coming coaches in the MAC and Indiana could grab one of them to replace Lynch.
1. Steve Kragthorpe – Louisville – It is never easy to take over a team that is coming off of unprecedented success. Louisville was 88-20 this decade and finished #6, #19 and #6 in the country the previous three years plus they were coming off an Orange Bowl win and 6 bowls in 6 years. There was a lot of talent left in the cupboard for Kragthorpe who was very successful at Tulsa. Kragthorpe’s first 2 years yielded 6-6 and 5-7 records with no bowls. They were 5-2 last year but lost their last 5 and if Louisville is not in a bowl this year, the Cards will likely turn to someone else next year.

russ1945 · Jul 15, 2009

Mark Lawrence's Preseason Playbook

One thing that Lawrence has that most other publications don't have is each teams past 10 year history ATS although you will need a mangifying glass to read it. You can also see how many returning starters each team has had since 2005 with a accompanying statistical review. I guess it is worth purchasing but he does not group the teams by conference and instead they are in alphabetical order. He combines the NFL and NCAA in one magazine.

russ1945 · Jul 16, 2009

From rivals.com

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<EMBED SRC=http://vmedia.rivals.com/flash/contentheadlines.swf?h1=Potential+does+not+always+translate+to+wins+&h2=&lwidth=620&lheight=60&lshadow=1&sFontColor=000000&sLink= WIDTH=620 HEIGHT=60 SALIGN=lt QUALITY=best SCALE=noborder wmode=transparent ID=rvflash NAME=rvflash BGCOLOR=#FFFFFF allowscriptaccess=always TYPE=application/x-shockwave-flash PLUGINSPAGE=http://www.macromedia.com/shockwave/download/index.cgi?P1_Prod_Version=ShockwaveFlash></EMBED></OBJECT><NOSCRIPT></NOSCRIPT></P>Olin Buchanan
Rivals.com College Football Senior Writer
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Exactly where the "overrated" taunt originated, I'm not sure. (The guess here is it probably began with ornery Duke basketball fans.)
Personally, I never understood that one. It seems that chastising a losing team for being overrated somehow lessens the accomplishment of the team that pulled off the upset.
<SCRIPT language=Javascript>document.write(insertImage('/IMAGES/Player/video/DEZBRYANT250_1231.JPG', '', 0, 300, 250, 1, 'Dez Bryant and Oklahoma State have a tough schedule.', '', 1247613549000, '', 1014, 'Align=Left'));</SCRIPT><TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width=258 align=left border=0><TBODY><TR><TD width=252>

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</TD></TR><TR><TD align=middle>Dez Bryant and Oklahoma State have a tough schedule.</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>Nevertheless, every year in every sport, some teams are overrated and some are underrated. This year's college football season certainly will have some fitting both categories. Some won't be known until midseason. Some won't be known until much later. But while it cannot yet accurately be said what teams are overrated or underrated, personnel, schedules and last season's performances can be analyzed to determine which teams might fit those descriptions.
With that in mind, here's a look at five teams potentially overrated and five that may be underrated.

Possibly overrated
• Oklahoma State: The Cowboys are widely projected as a top-10 team going into the season. No doubt, there are reasons to expect a big season in Stillwater. Dez Bryant is the best receiver in the country. Kendall Hunter is an explosive running back. Zac Robinson is a third-year starter at quarterback. Russell Okung could be the first offensive lineman taken in next year's NFL draft. Notice all those players are on offense? That's the concern. The defense could bring the Cowboys down like an anchor. Don't forget that six opponents scored at least 28 points against the Cowboys last season, and that they were among the nation's worst in pass rush and pass defense. Six starters return on the defense, but only one in the secondary. Sure, new coordinator Bill Young has had a distinguished career, but a coach can only do so much. There are even some questions about the offense, too. Remember, the Cowboys bogged down when Bryant was hurt in the fourth quarter of last year's 42-31 Holiday Bowl loss to Oregon. Oklahoma State opens with Georgia and Houston, and neither game is a sure win. If they falter early, the Cowboys may not be able to climb back into the top 10, especially with Texas, Texas Tech and Oklahoma looming in the second half of the season.
• Ole Miss: A cotton-soft schedule (two Football Championship Subdivision opponents, six Football Bowl Subdivision foes coming off losing seasons) should ensure the Rebels a good season. But the talk in Oxford is that the Rebels can win the SEC West and maybe even the SEC championship, which basically equates to contending for the national title. Slow down. There is talent on the roster, for sure. But after posting nine victories last year, Ole Miss won't have the element of surprise. It's an old story: A team that had a breakout year one season fails to meet expectations the next. Look at Illinois or Missouri in '08. The Rebels can score in bunches. They proved that by exceeding 30 points in each of the last four games last season. Still, will quarterback Jevan Snead be as effective without first-round NFL draft choice Michael Oher protecting him? Can high-risk, high-reward receiver Dexter McCluster shake his tendency to lose the ball? How strong will the defense be without Peria Jerry up front? Will defensive end Greg Hardy continue to have problems with his foot that twice has required surgery? Are the cornerbacks good enough?
• LSU: The mere suggestion that the Tigers may not be as good as some might project will make Louisianans hotter than Avery Island peppers. LSU is viewed as a top-10 team and strong SEC contender, and anything else would be disappointing. Much of the hype surrounding LSU centers on sophomore quarterback Jordan Jefferson, who threw four touchdown passes and one interception in the last four games of '08. On the season, though, he still completed fewer than 50 percent of his passes. The defense also is an issue. Don't forget that LSU surrendered 31 points in each of its last three regular-season games. The presence of new coordinator John Chavis should make a difference, but not all the defensive problems from last year could be blamed on coaching. The schedule won't allow for many breaks. Georgia, Florida, Alabama, Ole Miss and Arkansas beat LSU last season, and the Tigers must face three of them on the road this year.
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</TD></TR><TR><TD align=middle>Evan Royster returns but Penn State will have a tough time returning to the Rose Bowl.</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>• Penn State: The Nittany Lions were in the national championship picture much of last season, but getting in the group shot this season may be dicey. Supporters will say Penn State will win the Big Ten and make a run at the national title, and will itemize a list of reasons that extends beyond the presence of legendary coach Joe Paterno. OK, so quarterback Daryll Clark and running back Evan Royster return after excellent seasons, and the defense will get a boost with linebacker Sean Lee coming back from injury. But there are many uncertainties. How well will an offensive line with three new starters perform? The top three receivers from '08 are gone; are there adequate replacements on hand. Penn State also has significant holes to fill at defensive end because Aaron Maybin, a first-round choice, and Maurice Evans left early for the NFL draft. The secondary will have four new starters. Reliable kicker Kevin Kelly is gone and will be replaced by freshman Anthony Fera, who has to prove himself. An underwhelming list of cupcakes on the non-conference schedule and a mediocre Big Ten will make sure Penn State compiles a good record. But the Lions as a national championship contender? I can't see it.
• USC: How many teams could lose a quarterback who was a first-round draft choice (and replace him with a sophomore who has barely played) and eight defensive starters who were drafted (including four in the first two rounds) and still be viewed as a top-five team? Probably just USC. Truthfully, the Trojans have won so much and recruited so well that a top-five ranking makes sense. But there remains an uneasy feeling that the Trojans' streak of seven consecutive years of winning or sharing the Pac-10 championship could be in jeopardy, especially with California, Oregon and Oregon State expected to mount strong challenges. Quarterback Aaron Corp looks to have won the starting job after a strong showing in the spring, but he has thrown just four passes as a collegian. Even the most rabid USC fan would have to admit that's a step down from Mark Sanchez. Corp will have the luxury of playing behind a strong line and has a top receiver in Damian Williams, so you can't write off the Trojans' offense. Still, USC struggled to score in wins over Arizona and California last season, but the defense ensured victory. Can the Trojans count on being as good defensively in '09? Probably not. USC's goal is the national championship. Attaining that seems more unlikely this season than in recent seasons. A top-five finish can't even be taken for granted.

Possibly underrated
• Georgia: No one expects Georgia to tank. But no one projects the Bulldogs in the top 10, either. Don't take them too lightly. Georgia has posted at least 10 wins in six of the past seven seasons and should have another strong year. True, the Bulldogs are without quarterback Matthew Stafford, the first player selected in the NFL draft, and running back Knowshon Moreno, also a first-round pick. But Caleb King will bring speed at running back and fifth-year senior Joe Cox has some solid experience at quarterback. The offensive line was ravaged by injuries last season, but it is now experienced and could be among the nation's best with Trinton Sturdivant back in the lineup. In addition, sophomore wide receiver A.J. Green emerged as a star last season and could gain superstar status this season. Defensively, Georgia had problems in big games in '08. But tackle Jeff Owens is back from injury, and he, Geno Atkins and Kade Weston provide an outstanding rotation. The linebackers are solid with Akeem Dent and Rennie Curran. The secondary needs to get better, but at least there are good athletes to work with in the defensive backfield. A demanding early season schedule includes Oklahoma State, South Carolina, Arkansas and Arizona State. If the Bulldogs get through that, the top 10 beckons – maybe even the top five. And consider this: Three times in the BCS era, teams won national championships the season following an NFL draft in which their previous quarterback was the first player selected overall (Tennessee, LSU and USC). Could Georgia make it four?
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</TD></TR><TR><TD align=middle>Russell Wilson and N.C. State could surprise a lot of people.</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>• N.C. State: Few – if any – would give North Carolina State a chance in the ACC's Atlantic Division race, but counting out the Wolfpack would be a mistake. Sophomore Russell Wilson is the conference's premier quarterback, and NC State can't be overlooked as long as he's healthy. He threw 17 touchdown passes and only one interception last season, and he rallied the Wolfpack to a four-game winning streak to close the regular season. That included wins over Wake Forest, North Carolina and Miami. The defense has to improve, but seven starters return, including end Willie Young. NCSU has made steady progress in two seasons under coach Tom O'Brien, and a significant leap could come in his third year. The Wolfpack probably won't show up on any preseason top-25 lists, but if Wilson stays healthy and the defense makes progress, they have a chance to break into the rankings.
• Rutgers: The Scarlet Knights will have a new starting quarterback and must replace two starting wide receivers, including first-round pick Kenny Britt. But remember that Rutgers ranked 12th in the final polls in 2006 thanks to a strong running attack. The running game projects to be formidable again with the best offensive line in the Big East and a committee of solid running backs. Coach Greg Schiano has six starters back from a good defense that held seven opponents to fewer than 20 points last season. Rutgers posted eight wins in '08, and three losses were by seven points or less. Adequate quarterback play from Domenic Natale or Jabu Lovelace should be enough for the Knights to win a few more close ones this season.
• East Carolina: Conference USA teams don't often finish in the top 25. In fact, none have finished in the final AP poll since former member Louisville was sixth in '04. But ECU, which climbed as high as No. 14 early last year, could end that drought. The Pirates return eight offensive starters and seven defensive starters from last season's team, which won the Conference USA championship and defeated West Virginia and ACC champ Virginia Tech. Among those back for an encore are quarterback Patrick Pinkney and defensive end C.J. Wilson. Early season games at West Virginia (Sept. 12) and North Carolina (Sept. 19) afford the Pirates opportunity to make a major statement.
• Colorado: No team in '08 had worse luck than Colorado, which was ravaged by injuries. A healthy Buffs team could be vastly improved this season. The offensive line will get a huge boost with guard Ryan Miller coming back from injury. That will help the running game, which looks strong with sophomores Rodney Stewart and Darrell Scott. Quarterback play must improve, but junior Cody Hawkins is entering his third year as a starter. Quarterbacks typically are better as juniors and seniors than as freshmen and sophomores. The defensive line has to be rebuilt, but the linebackers are solid. And the secondary, which was a liability a year ago, will be upgraded with cornerback Benjamin Burney back from an injury that forced him to miss all of last season. The Buffaloes aren't expected to be much of a factor in the Big 12 North race, but they could cause some problems. Something to keep in mind: Kansas, Missouri and Nebraska must travel to Boulder.

russ1945 · Jul 17, 2009

Interesting take on polls

<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=5 width=728 border=0 itxtvisited="1"><TBODY itxtvisited="1"><TR itxtvisited="1"><TD vAlign=top itxtvisited="1">[FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]2009 Preseason Rankings Comparison[/FONT]
[FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif][SIZE=-1]Updated 6/17/09

It is our recent tradition to provide a comparison of our CCR Top 120 rankings, preseason voter polls, and a selection of widely-read season preview magazines.

The major preseason voter polls - AP and Coaches - are generally released in August. The Harris Interactive Poll, which replaced the AP in the BCS in 2005, will continue in that roll this year. Harris does not publish a preseason poll and will not release its first rankings until September 27. The AP still releases a preseason poll and regular weekly rankings, and could determine a number one team independent of the BCS.

There are often amazing similarities between the preseason "voter polls" (coaches, Harris, AP) and the "computer rankings". Those similarities would seemingly defy logic. After all, there is an inherent difference between a "poll" and a "preseason magazine prediction". The magazines are typically picking where they think the teams will be at the end of the year. The polls are determining where the teams should be ranked to begin the year. The Congrove Computer Rankings (CCR) actually release one of each method. The CCR Preseason Rankings are the "projections" of what the rankings will look like at the end of the regular season, and the CCR Current Rankings are how the teams supposedly stack-up on day one of the season.

Who was better last year? The Congrove Computer Rankings ruled the roost. The CCR opening day Top 25 and Phil Steele's preseason forecast each had 16 teams that finished in the top 25 of either the AP or Coaches poll. CCR's preseason projections had 15, along with Game Plan and Sports Illustrated. The consensus rankings (shown below in shaded gray) pegged 14 teams. Athlon's, Blue Ribbon/ESPN, Lindy's and the Sporting News each had only 13 teams. The AP preseason poll was correct with 14 teams while the Coaches' poll hit on 13 teams.

Here is a sampling of this season's rankings, listed in alphabetical order of the teams that appear on at least one published Top 25 list.[/SIZE][/FONT]</FONT itxtvisited="1">

</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=5 width=720 border=0 itxtvisited="1"><TBODY itxtvisited="1"><TR itxtvisited="1"><TD vAlign=top width="100%" bgColor=#ffffff itxtvisited="1">[SIZE=-1]Abbreviation descriptions
TSN - The Sporting News/Street & Smith's combined publication.
SI - Sports Illustrated
CCR Proj - Congrove Computer Rankings - Projected Final Regular Season Rankings.
CCR Wk. 1 - Congrove Computer Rankings - Opening Week Rankings.
Cons. Rank - Consensus rankings exclude both Congrove Computer Rankings to allow for comparison to the CCR.

Click on column heading to sort.[/SIZE]</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>[SIZE=-1]
[/SIZE]<TABLE class="sortable-onload-17 no-arrow" id=fd-table-2 cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=2 width=734 border=0 itxtvisited="1"><TBODY itxtvisited="1"><TR class=ccr vAlign=bottom itxtvisited="1"><TH class="sortable-text fd-column-0" style="MozUserSelect: none" align=left width=140 unselectable="on" itxtvisited="1">Team</TH><TH class="sortable-numeric fd-column-1" style="MozUserSelect: none" align=middle width=54 unselectable="on" itxtvisited="1">Coaches</TH><TH class="sortable-numeric fd-column-2" style="MozUserSelect: none" align=middle width=54 unselectable="on" itxtvisited="1">AP</TH><TH class="sortable-numeric fd-column-3" style="MozUserSelect: none" align=middle width=54 unselectable="on" itxtvisited="1">Athlon</TH><TH class="sortable-numeric fd-column-4" style="MozUserSelect: none" align=middle width=54 unselectable="on" itxtvisited="1">Lindy's</TH><TH class="sortable-numeric fd-column-5" style="MozUserSelect: none" align=middle width=54 unselectable="on" itxtvisited="1">Phil Steele</TH><TH class="sortable-numeric fd-column-6" style="MozUserSelect: none" align=middle width=54 unselectable="on" itxtvisited="1">TSN</TH><TH class="sortable-numeric fd-column-7" style="MozUserSelect: none" align=middle width=54 unselectable="on" itxtvisited="1">Game Plan</TH><TH class="sortable-numeric fd-column-8" style="MozUserSelect: none" align=middle width=54 unselectable="on" itxtvisited="1">SI</TH><TH class="sortable-numeric fd-column-9" style="MozUserSelect: none" align=middle width=54 bgColor=#dbdbdb unselectable="on" itxtvisited="1">Cons. Rank</TH><TH class="sortable-numeric fd-column-10" style="MozUserSelect: none" align=middle width=54 unselectable="on" itxtvisited="1">CCR (Proj.)</TH><TH class="sortable-numeric fd-column-11" style="MozUserSelect: none" align=middle width=54 unselectable="on" itxtvisited="1">CCR (Wk.1)</TH></TR><TR itxtvisited="1"><TD width=140 itxtvisited="1">

[SIZE=-1]Alabama[/SIZE]