Looking ahead to next season

[Conan]

Part of this is about a team starting out at #1 and going wire to wire. That means an undefeated season. I don't remember the last time anyone who was ranked #1 at the beginning of the year went all the way wire to wire and won the NC.

I know that your team can be loaded but they have to get up for every game vs every opponent, even when there's someone important on deck the next week or if they are coming off a big win from the week before... or both. Let downs, look aheads, sandwich games... you have to be better than good, you have to play for the sake of playing your best game no matter who your opponent is. That takes one hell of a coach to keep a team on the bead under those circumstances, especially if they are winning. There's no time for any of the players to sit around gloating like their fans in here like to do.

It's very hard to focus on every game, especially when you are in everyone's cross hairs and there's a bulls eye on your back.

 

[russ1945]

I have said it on here before and I will say it again. I will take the field vs. Florida for winning the national championship in 2009. Like Conan points out there are many factors and many things have to fall in place no matter how conducive their schedule is. That is not taking anything away from Florida. With as many returning starter as they have, you could probably say that it is theirs to lose in one since of the word. The whole thing is to get to the championship game and then the rubber meets the road. However, it is a long road just getting there and there are no short cuts.

 

[russ1945]

Just a quick note on a team that does not get much attention. During the off season, UTEP had 23 players who received surgeries. I found that to be truly remarkable. Good luck to the Miners in 09.

 

[trentmoney]

Part of this is about a team starting out at #1 and going wire to wire. That means an undefeated season. I don't remember the last time anyone who was ranked #1 at the beginning of the year went all the way wire to wire and won the NC.

I know that your team can be loaded but they have to get up for every game vs every opponent, even when there's someone important on deck the next week or if they are coming off a big win from the week before... or both. Let downs, look aheads, sandwich games... you have to be better than good, you have to play for the sake of playing your best game no matter who your opponent is. That takes one hell of a coach to keep a team on the bead under those circumstances, especially if they are winning. There's no time for any of the players to sit around gloating like their fans in here like to do.

It's very hard to focus on every game, especially when you are in everyone's cross hairs and there's a bulls eye on your back.

it wasn't wire-to-wire but 2 yrs ago LSU was #1 early, lost and fell out of position, went back to #1, lost and fell out again, and finished #2 to play in NC game and won.

just last year OU was #1 early, lost and fell out, and finishd in the NC game

my point is that you don't have to go wire to wire or undefeated to finish in the top 2 and play in NC game...if you don't think UF can play in NC game bc it's hard to go wire to wire that is purely irrelevant as the past 2 yrs are examples of this

 

[russ1945]

I read somewhere that Rich Rodriquez has never started out better than 3-9 anywhere he has coached. So it is obvious he brings something to the table after the first year. With a lot of room for improvement and a new Defensive Coordinator who may be better suited to being an assistant than a head coach in Greg Robinson things could really change for the better in Ann Arbor.
I think Rod can hold his own with any coach in the Big 10 although getting his players to match that task is still a big question. In terms of one who wagers I would expect an improved team in 2009 and maybe a team that can pull a point or two. If QB Tate Forcia gets the job he would be something to build around for four more years. And they have a kid named Denard Robinson who was promised by the coaches that he will be a QB but until he gets on campus and catches up at that position, they will make every effort to make use of his athletic ability any way they can.
I guess you could cover every position in depth but you need a QB to run the show. With a QB and a team that is more comfortable with the system, they can loosen up a little and play more and think less. Great head coach, great new DC, new QB, a year under the system, I am looking for this to be a bet on team in 2009. They play N.D. at home on Sept. 12 so that is a circled game for Michigan. It is one they have to win to get back some pride and build on. Who do you think is the better coach, Rod or Weiss? I know who I will probably be putting my money on.

 

[trentmoney]

I have said it on here before and I will say it again. I will take the field vs. Florida for winning the national championship in 2009. Like Conan points out there are many factors and many things have to fall in place no matter how conducive their schedule is. That is not taking anything away from Florida. With as many returning starter as they have, you could probably say that it is theirs to lose in one since of the word. The whole thing is to get to the championship game and then the rubber meets the road. However, it is a long road just getting there and there are no short cuts.

you realize that a bet "Florida not to win the NC" would cost you about -300 or -350

that would probably be one of the stupidest wager i've seen in a while imo...you couldn't even hedge out of that play since UF will be favored in all their games, NC included...you're basically hoping for an injury to Tebow or 2 losses and even still they could get to NC game as LSU did 2 yrs ago w/ 2 losses

the smarter play would be to risk less and just play UF @ +300 or +350, maximizing profit and limiting risk/exposure

 

[GoSooners]

You have to look at Florida from a conference perspective too. The only real iffy game they play is at LSU. But even if they were to lose that game, LSU is on the other side of the conference bracket. And Florida would still have more than likely just one loss and be playing for the SEC Championship. In reality, my bet is your going to have to hope Florida loses to LSU twice to not make it into the BCS title game. And you'll have to hope two other teams out there go undefeated. It could happen, but with the exception of Texas, I see too many top teams with too tough of schedules to get through the season unscathed. My advice is either bet ON Florida or stay the hell away from them. I wouldn't bet against a team like this who is STILL on a roll.

 

[trentmoney]

You have to look at Florida from a conference perspective too. The only real iffy game they play is at LSU. But even if they were to lose that game, LSU is on the other side of the conference bracket. And Florida would still have more than likely just one loss and be playing for the SEC Championship. In reality, my bet is your going to have to hope Florida loses to LSU twice to not make it into the BCS title game. And you'll have to hope two other teams out there go undefeated. It could happen, but with the exception of Texas, I see too many top teams with too tough of schedules to get through the season unscathed. My advice is either bet ON Florida or stay the hell away from them.

And definitely DON'T lay -350 against them to not win NC...

 

[trentmoney]

I have said it before and I will say it again. Florida will not win it all without Harvin.

I don't understand people who make comments like this...
Do you realize that UF is 5-0 w/out Harvin the last 3 yrs, one of them being SEC champ game on neutral field against undefeated Alabama, which resulted in a DD win..??

this is college football...every year every team loses star players.

 

[RunLeeRun]

you realize that a bet "Florida not to win the NC" would cost you about -300 or -350

Maybe it would be that high, but considering that you won't get +300 on Florida to win the championship (Greek is using +175), I really doubt it. Look at it like this on a regular money line a comeback of +175 would have a charge price of -205 or -215 depending on the type of line at given book, however, it is Florida and there schedule won't be one of the most difficult I could see -225. IF florida was +300, then you could see the -350ish to "not win", but again, you won't get 3 to 1 anywhere. So, -225 taking everybody: USC, Oklahoma, Texas, Ohio State, etc and +175 is Florida....both are sucker bets, but being a sucker I lay the money myself...play the field so to speak.

 

[trentmoney]

you realize that a bet "Florida not to win the NC" would cost you about -300 or -350

Maybe it would be that high, but considering that you won't get +300 on Florida to win the championship (Greek is using +175), I really doubt it. Look at it like this on a regular money line a comeback of +175 would have a charge price of -205 or -215 depending on the type of line at given book, however, it is Florida and there schedule won't be one of the most difficult I could see -225. IF florida was +300, then you could see the -350ish to "not win", but again, you won't get 3 to 1 anywhere. So, -225 taking everybody: USC, Oklahoma, Texas, Ohio State, etc and +175 is Florida....both are sucker bets, but being a sucker I lay the money myself...play the field so to speak.

the lowest i had seen was 5-2 for UF...based on that "not to win" would be -300...i doubt UF closes at +175

sure you're getting all those teams, but you're really only getting one of them if UF gets to the NC game, and UF would be favored...in other words, you can't really get both OU and Texas bc both would not get to the NC game...understand my point? you're betting UF doesn't get to the NC game and laying heavy juice, bc if they get there they will be favored and you wouldn't be able to hedge...why lay all that juice (-300) AND go against the best team who, based on the system, has an overwhelming advantage to get to NC game all things being equal i.e. same record as anyone else in the country UF would get the nod, also SEC title game gives another chance (like LSU 2 yrs ago) if they're not in by then

Laying heavy juice on a future is not the way to make $$$ in this biz imo

 

[trentmoney]

in fact, if you're "anti-UF" and want to fade them the better play would be to bet u11 wins (i'm assuming that would be their total) because you win if they go 10-2, but they could still get into NC game @ 10-2 plus SEC title game win and you wouldn't have to lay heavy juice...you might even get +money on the under

laying heavy juice is a recipe for disaster, especially on future with $$$ tied up

btw-last year USC was consensus #1 and they were +350 so i doubt UF closes @ +175 even though they are defending champs they play in the toughest conference....remember, the Greek is offereing early odds so there is no reason for them to give you the right number on the favorite anyway

 

[russ1945]

I have said in here before that I do not literally make preseason bets like who will win the National championship etc. I do not like to tie up money for that period of time when I can usually turn it quicker by keeping it in my regular bank roll. When I say the field against Florida I don't mean that I am going to actually place wagers on other teams etc. I am just saying that a lot of things have to happen to pull off a repeat and even one loss could knock them out and they could make it there and lose the championship game. I gotta see it but I am not "betting" against it. Sorry if there was some confusion although it did provoke some interesting conversation.

 

[trentmoney]

you realize that a bet "Florida not to win the NC" would cost you about -300 or -350

Maybe it would be that high, but considering that you won't get +300 on Florida to win the championship (Greek is using +175), I really doubt it. Look at it like this on a regular money line a comeback of +175 would have a charge price of -205 or -215 depending on the type of line at given book, however, it is Florida and there schedule won't be one of the most difficult I could see -225. IF florida was +300, then you could see the -350ish to "not win", but again, you won't get 3 to 1 anywhere. So, -225 taking everybody: USC, Oklahoma, Texas, Ohio State, etc and +175 is Florida....both are sucker bets, but being a sucker I lay the money myself...play the field so to speak.

one more thing:

it makes perfect sense for him to offer UF @ +175
he has your money for 9 months at a low rate...

but even more importantly, and why he is doing this, is because when the "real" odds come out (5-2/3-1/7-2) he can just arbitrage all his action and make money either way

and what if something were to happen to Tebow or Meyer at some point before the season starts...UF would be maybe 10-1 or 15-1 and then he can either hold all the +175 action or arbitrage it even better at those odds!!!

there is no way UF goes off @ +175
no one would bet it and that's not what the books want bc if UF doesn't win it they would have too much action on other futures that they would have to pay out at higher prices

i'm guessing anywhere from 5-2 to 7-2 imo
:toast:

 

[GoSooners]

Personally, I never bet a team who is under +600 to win the national championship. I made only one play last year, and that was on my Sooners. I believe I got them at +600. But the key was that I felt they had a nice path to get to the BCS title game regardless of if they won or lost.. From there i ended up hedging my bet and putting enough down on Florida to where i would make a profit no matter who won. To me, this is the ONLY way to play these kinds of prop bets.

Given the facts of the info we have on hand, do you really want to bet against Florida? This will basically be the same team they were last season minus just a couple players. But the main thing you need to look at is who is left out there besides the Gators to have the best chance to get in the title game. And I think the only logical conclusion you can come up with is Texas. They have basically their whole team back sans a couple defensive players. And more importantly they will be the highest ranked team with the easiest schedule. Now, as a Sooner fan I hate Texas. But I realize that from a betting perspective i know all they probably have to do is beat OU in the Red River Shootout and their odds of getting in the title game go from about 7-1 to 2-1. So again, the Horns probably aren't a bad hedge bet at the odds they are now.

Nobody can predict injuries or bad luck happening during the season to any team. That's why you have to go by the info you have on hand before the season begins. I wouldn't ever lay a bet like this that was based on the luck of the Irish...Good luck

 

[trentmoney]

Personally, I never bet a team who is under +600 to win the national championship. I made only one play last year, and that was on my Sooners. I believe I got them at +600. But the key was that I felt they had a nice path to get to the BCS title game regardless of if they won or lost.. From there i ended up hedging my bet and putting enough down on Florida to where i would make a profit no matter who won. To me, this is the ONLY way to play these kinds of prop bets.

Given the facts of the info we have on hand, do you really want to bet against Florida? This will basically be the same team they were last season minus just a couple players. But the main thing you need to look at is who is left out there besides the Gators to have the best chance to get in the title game. And I think the only logical conclusion you can come up with is Texas. They have basically their whole team back sans a couple defensive players. And more importantly they will be the highest ranked team with the easiest schedule. Now, as a Sooner fan I hate Texas. But I realize that from a betting perspective i know all they probably have to do is beat OU in the Red River Shootout and their odds of getting in the title game go from about 7-1 to 2-1.

Nobody can predict injuries or bad luck happening during the season to any team. That's why you have to go by the info you have on hand before the season begins. I wouldn't ever lay a bet like this that was based on the luck of the Irish.

the other good thing going for texas is that if they win the RRS then they win the south...and if they win the south they pretty much win the b12...and being the champ of the b12 with only one loss would pretty much result in the NC game...i'm saying this bc the b10 and acc are out imo unless undefeated, big east is out even if undefeated, and usc has 4 tough road games and will not be as good as last yr so i can't see them being undefeated

hence, if texas wins the RRS they are probably going to the NC game, and since they will either be favored or pk, the odds for NC game are definitely worth it (+800 @ greek) imo

unless, of course, you think OU is better than texas
i'm not sure yet where i stand with these 2 teams but w/ ou right now at +500 i would probably take texas bc of better value

 

[GoSooners]

Trent...The better value is definitely with Texas. If I see two teams that I think are pretty even strength-wise I'm going to take the better odds. Plus, teams with the easiest road to the title are usually the ones who stay relatively injury free. I guarantee you that out of Texas first 6 games, their first units will probably only see about 50% of the action on the field. OU's first few games are against Miami, BYU and Tulsa before they even get to Texas. So if I was a neutral observer I would have to go with Texas. Although I doubt seriously if I can ever bring myself to bet on the Horns. Even at this good a value.

 

[trentmoney]

Trent...The better value is definitely with Texas. If I see two teams that I think are pretty even strength-wise I'm going to take the better odds. Plus, teams with the easiest road to the title are usually the ones who stay relatively injury free. I guarantee you that out of Texas first 6 games, their first units will probably only see about 50% of the action on the field. OU's first few games are against Miami, BYU and Tulsa before they even get to Texas. So if I was a neutral observer I would have to go with Texas. Although I doubt seriously if I can ever bring myself to bet on the Horns. Even at this good a value.

actually the best value is probably ok st @ 70-1
statement opening day game home to georgia will help SOS
get texas @ home

the problem is in all the years of BCS the 2 teams in the NC game have all been "name" programs...
miami, fsu, uf, tenn, lsu, oh st, usc, ok, tex, neb

ok st would be the first "no-name" program to make it...70-1 is pretty good though!!

 

[GoSooners]

actually the best value is probably ok st @ 70-1
statement opening day game home to georgia will help SOS
get texas @ home

the problem is in all the years of BCS the 2 teams in the NC game have all been "name" programs...
miami, fsu, uf, tenn, lsu, oh st, usc, ok, tex, neb

ok st would be the first "no-name" program to make it...70-1 is pretty good though!!

Trent...Although i think OSU has an excellent chance at knocking off Georgia at home, I don't think they have the depth or talent on defense yet to make a run for the title. Unless Texas and OU incur alot of injuries during the season, I don't see OSU being able to knock off both teams. Especially OU in Norman. The BCS is basically between about 8 to 10 football programs every year. And almost half of those programs come from the SEC. Everybody else will need to go undefeated. I give Boise State a better chance at making it than I do somebody from the Big 12 other than Texas and OU. USC is the wildcard team. If they should somehow survive their brutal schedule without a loss, i think it would be a hell of a tussle between them and Florida. I really don't know which one I would favor. But USC will have for sure faced the tougher schedule this year.

 

[GoSooners]

Another thing about OSU: If they should somehow knock off Texas, and Texas beats OU and OU beats OSU guess who makes it to the Big 12 Championship game again this year...This scenerio is very possible, except something tells me that OU will have 2 losses this year, and there won't be a Big 12 team in the BCS title game. Even if Texas was to lose just one time. That's what a cupcake schedule can do to you. If this should happen and USC falls out of contention, I believe we could see an ACC team in there for the first time in a while.