Looking ahead to next season

[russ1945]

Another thing about OSU: If they should somehow knock off Texas, and Texas beats OU and OU beats OSU guess who makes it to the Big 12 Championship game again this year...This scenerio is very possible, except something tells me that OU will have 2 losses this year, and there won't be a Big 12 team in the BCS title game. Even if Texas was to lose just one time. That's what a cupcake schedule can do to you. If this should happen and USC falls out of contention, I believe we could see an ACC team in there for the first time in a while.

GS: The same thing could happen this year that happened last year in the Big 12, no doubt about that. In terms of possibilities, if OU was to go undefeated I would think that their strength of schedule might push them past another undefeated team (Florida, whoever) if those defeated teams go on to win, etc. I would say OSU has it's hands full beating OU at OU since the crowd finally learned how to be a factor in last years T Tech game. OU may have to get up more often than Texas or Florida but if they win out they have an edge. Also playing the stronger schedule leading up to the Texas game may be in OU's favor in terms of seasoning and experience for the OL etc. There are many scenarios in the Big 12 but whoever wins the South probably takes it all. If Texas loses one game they are out of the BCS championship game. There will probably be more pressure on Texas when they play OU because they will not have been tested, OU will be.
USC is probably more vulnerable this year than normal so it may be difficult for them or anyone to come out of the Pac 10 undefeated. The Big 10 is down in my opinion and teams like Illinois, Michigan, Michigan St could give Ohio St or Penn St. all they want this year. Utah, BYU, TCU, and Boise may take care of each other. Texas and Florida have the inside track schedule wise but they have hurdles. Texas has two hurdles, OU and OSU, and Florida has Georgia and LSU (no Mississippi or Alabama). And don't be surprised if Miss St plays them tough at home with some obvious incentives and motivation. Regardless, the name of the game is simply getting to the championship game. Anything can happen at that point. I am not conceding anything to Florida either. Injuries, weather,
turnovers and all the other bugaboos that make football the great game that it is will be front row center waiting to raise their ugly heads. No free lunch for anybody the way I see it. I would be surprised but it is possible that Florida could lose two or three games. Likely, no. According to past performances at least 10 of the preseason top 25 will not be there in the end. Last Year Georgia was picked number one. This year, who the hell knows.

 

[XenScott]

I can't see UF being jumped by anyone as long as they're undefeated which they will likely do. I'm looking at the schedule now and it's ridiculously easy for an SEC team. Michigan might be under the radar as well considering they don't play an elite team until the end of October.

Michigan's OOC schedule

Notre Dame
Eastern Michigan
Western Michigan
Delaware State

Michigan's away schedule

Michigan State
Iowa
Illinois
Wisconsin

SEC or Big 12 teams would kill for a schedule like that.

 

[trentmoney]

Another thing about OSU: If they should somehow knock off Texas, and Texas beats OU and OU beats OSU guess who makes it to the Big 12 Championship game again this year...This scenerio is very possible, except something tells me that OU will have 2 losses this year, and there won't be a Big 12 team in the BCS title game. Even if Texas was to lose just one time. That's what a cupcake schedule can do to you. If this should happen and USC falls out of contention, I believe we could see an ACC team in there for the first time in a while.

strictly value play...i know they won't do it but the price is right

 

[trentmoney]

Trent...Although i think OSU has an excellent chance at knocking off Georgia at home, I don't think they have the depth or talent on defense yet to make a run for the title. Unless Texas and OU incur alot of injuries during the season, I don't see OSU being able to knock off both teams. Especially OU in Norman. The BCS is basically between about 8 to 10 football programs every year. And almost half of those programs come from the SEC. Everybody else will need to go undefeated. I give Boise State a better chance at making it than I do somebody from the Big 12 other than Texas and OU. USC is the wildcard team. If they should somehow survive their brutal schedule without a loss, i think it would be a hell of a tussle between them and Florida. I really don't know which one I would favor. But USC will have for sure faced the tougher schedule this year.

when taken in context (own personnel/personnel of opponents) i think USC has a real tough schedule this year

 

[RunLeeRun]

one more thing:

it makes perfect sense for him to offer UF @ +175
he has your money for 9 months at a low rate...

Usually the greek offers really high comebacks. If you can find this somewhere else I wouldn't be surprised to actually see if lower. I guess we can agree to disagree.

but even more importantly, and why he is doing this, is because when the "real" odds come out (5-2/3-1/7-2) he can just arbitrage all his action and make money either way

Now your starting to get a little closer to what I believe it is worth (5-2)

and what if something were to happen to Tebow or Meyer at some point before the season starts...UF would be maybe 10-1 or 15-1 and then he can either hold all the +175 action or arbitrage it even better at those odds!!!

If anybody's star player goes down, the line would go crazy. Although, I think they could do just fine without Meyer for one season and could actually be good motivation..say if he were to get sick (i.e. "Tebow makes motivational speeches urging team to win one for the Urb)
there is no way UF goes off @ +175"

I think it is a good line considering they should walk there way to the SEC title game.

no one would bet it and that's not what the books want bc if UF doesn't win it they would have too much action on other futures that they would have to pay out at higher prices

Somebody would bet it. And books use a type of calculator (name escapes me) that factors in all the odds, to see what the "payout percentage" is. Sometimes they loose, but most times the house wins on these sucker bets...thats why they have them.

i'm guessing anywhere from 5-2 to 7-2 imo

I'd put the window 3-2 to 5-2....anyway, just my opinion. I see your's as well, and I respect it otherwise I wouldn't have bothered to respond.

(<)<

 

[Conan]

when taken in context (own personnel/personnel of opponents) i think USC has a real tough schedule this year

...as they did last year too. But everyone east of the Mississippi who votes in the polls and the general public kept echoing how weak the Pac-10 was and how USC's conference schedule was soft. That's what cost them a shot at the NC... public perception brought on by sportswriters who are asleep in bed when the Pac-10 plays its games. How ironic that the conference that provided USC with such a wussy schedule turned out to be the only conference to go undefeated in the bowls.

 

[russ1945]

You know 2009 would get really ugly if whoever won the Big 12, SEC, Big 10, and Pac 10, or any other additional conferences went undeafeated. I know this is a stretch and maybe mathematically impossible due to scheduling, etc. but it would then go to strength of schedule. Despite what everyone thinks that is still problematic, somewhat subjective, and open to endless debate. Same scenario, maybe worse, if everyone who won their conference had two losses. I still think back to LY when Georgia was preseason no.l for all of the right reasons. At least 10 of the preseason top 25 are not there at the end of the year. Despite our and eveyone else's opinions that shit just happens. That is when we have to come to grips with why we are really on this forum talking about this stuff. Because what is important to us is weekly matchups and being on the right side. We are all homers at heart and some of our teams are contenders and some are pretenders and until the season starts we won't know which are which. This all makes for great conversation but in the end what happens and who wins it all is not really my biggest concern until I actually have to pick a side in the BCS championship game.

 

[russ1945]

Miami Fl had their spring game on March 28th. Miami's offense ran 71 plays for 406 total yards, 17 first downs, 3 TD's and 1 FG. They rushed 33 times for a net of 131 yds, hit 26 of 38 passes for 275 yds and 1 Int. Harris was 9/16 for 141 yds, and Berry ran 14 times for 114 yds. 13 players missed the game who are expected back for fall camp. backup QB Taylor Cook did well and ran plays with both the first and second team units.

 

[trentmoney]

...as they did last year too. But everyone east of the Mississippi who votes in the polls and the general public kept echoing how weak the Pac-10 was and how USC's conference schedule was soft. That's what cost them a shot at the NC... public perception brought on by sportswriters who are asleep in bed when the Pac-10 plays its games. How ironic that the conference that provided USC with such a wussy schedule turned out to be the only conference to go undefeated in the bowls.

big difference btw 2008 and 2009

1. @ cal and oregon, the 2 teams who should give them the biggest challenge, while last year both were home
2. 3 sets of back-to-back roadies. last year they had one.
3. at ohio state, last year home
4. at Notre Dame, who will be much better, last year home
5. 6 true road games, while last year one of their 6 was at ucla

you can't even compare this year's schedule to last...

factor in context of personnel i.e. 9 lost starters on defense and brand new QB as well and a tough schedule gets even tougher

and while this wasn't my point, usc didn't beat one team ranked in top 20 after their or st loss (#21 and #23) so it's not fair to blame the media...bcs computers are more of a factor and obviusly the lack of quality wins hurt them as compared to oklahoma (wins over #16, #12, #2, #20 after their texas loss) or UF (#4, #6, #25, #20, #1) after their loss to ole miss

but my main point was how difficult usc schedule is this year, but if you think they had a tough schedule last year that's fine but this year is not even comparable as to my reasons listed above

:toast:

 

[trentmoney]

one more thing:

it makes perfect sense for him to offer UF @ +175
he has your money for 9 months at a low rate...

Usually the greek offers really high comebacks. If you can find this somewhere else I wouldn't be surprised to actually see if lower. I guess we can agree to disagree.

but even more importantly, and why he is doing this, is because when the "real" odds come out (5-2/3-1/7-2) he can just arbitrage all his action and make money either way

Now your starting to get a little closer to what I believe it is worth (5-2)

and what if something were to happen to Tebow or Meyer at some point before the season starts...UF would be maybe 10-1 or 15-1 and then he can either hold all the +175 action or arbitrage it even better at those odds!!!

If anybody's star player goes down, the line would go crazy. Although, I think they could do just fine without Meyer for one season and could actually be good motivation..say if he were to get sick (i.e. "Tebow makes motivational speeches urging team to win one for the Urb)
there is no way UF goes off @ +175"

I think it is a good line considering they should walk there way to the SEC title game.

no one would bet it and that's not what the books want bc if UF doesn't win it they would have too much action on other futures that they would have to pay out at higher prices

Somebody would bet it. And books use a type of calculator (name escapes me) that factors in all the odds, to see what the "payout percentage" is. Sometimes they loose, but most times the house wins on these sucker bets...thats why they have them.

i'm guessing anywhere from 5-2 to 7-2 imo

I'd put the window 3-2 to 5-2....anyway, just my opinion. I see your's as well, and I respect it otherwise I wouldn't have bothered to respond.

(<)<

i won't argue w/ you but i am telling you this much...

for the favorite there is no way he will offer real odds this early in the year!!
why would he?
so he could get stuck w/ a whole boat-load of UF +175 when in August they end up being +125..??
Spero has been in business for a while and it's for reasons like this (amongst others)...
He wouldn't "expose" hmself to a bad line this early...rather, he's offering a bad line so he can arbitrage it later for better odds!!!

my point on tebow or meyer is because there's only one way that line is going (up) and if something out of the ordinary would happen it would go up a lot more...so either way, freak accident or not, he is offering a bad price so he can arbitrage at 5-2/7-2 or even higher should something out of the ordinary happen

and you can take this advice or not, but NEVER take a future to win the title @ +175 five months before the season starts...that's about as bad an investment as you can make!! at least wait until fall camp is over in case of injury...it can't go down much from a price like that anyway

good luck
:toast:

 

[russ1945]

Xen: Yes I began focusing in on Michigan after reading a Bio on Rich Rodriquez. His success after the first year was incredible at WV and the DC will help big time. A conducive schedule and a big circle on the Notre Dame game and like you point out winning 8 games is in their range. If he is successful Rod will have established himself and quiet the nay sayers in Ann Arbor. There is an unquenched hunger up there and if they get a taste of winning they could be formidable if the QB(s) can get it done. As always scheduling can be the key to success.

 

[GoSooners]

You know 2009 would get really ugly if whoever won the Big 12, SEC, Big 10, and Pac 10, or any other additional conferences went undeafeated. I know this is a stretch and maybe mathematically impossible due to scheduling, etc. but it would then go to strength of schedule. Despite what everyone thinks that is still problematic, somewhat subjective, and open to endless debate. Same scenario, maybe worse, if everyone who won their conference had two losses. I still think back to LY when Georgia was preseason no.l for all of the right reasons. At least 10 of the preseason top 25 are not there at the end of the year. Despite our and eveyone else's opinions that shit just happens. That is when we have to come to grips with why we are really on this forum talking about this stuff. Because what is important to us is weekly matchups and being on the right side. We are all homers at heart and some of our teams are contenders and some are pretenders and until the season starts we won't know which are which. This all makes for great conversation but in the end what happens and who wins it all is not really my biggest concern until I actually have to pick a side in the BCS championship game.

With Texas very weak schedule this year, they could beat OU, lose one game and get knocked out of the BCS title game. A Texas loss to say OSU would all but eliminate them if they were going up for BCS votes against a one loss Florida, USC, and maybe even VT, GA Tech or an undefeated Big East team or TCU and Boise teams. In other words, with their weak schedule there is no wiggle room for the Horns. They could beat OU, win the big 12 Championship game and end up finding themselves in the Fiesta Bowl playing a MWC or WAC team, or even worse for them, being paired up in a rematch with OU....Could very well happen if Texas doesn't go 13-0 and some other team has one of those special seasons. As for OU, this may not sound like words that should be coming out of the mouth of a diehard Sooners fan, but if OU doesn't get to the BCS title game, I hope they miss a BCS game altogether and end up going someplace like the Cotton or Holiday Bowl. I don't think i could stand to see OU lose another BCS Bowl game. I want to see them get this bowl drought overwith and done. And a second tier bowl sounds like a good place to start.

 

[Conan]

With Texas very weak schedule this year, they could beat OU, lose one game and get knocked out of the BCS title game. A Texas loss to say OSU would all but eliminate them if they were going up for BCS votes against a one loss Florida, USC, and maybe even VT, GA Tech or an undefeated Big East team or TCU and Boise teams. In other words, with their weak schedule there is no wiggle room for the Horns. They could beat OU, win the big 12 Championship game and end up finding themselves in the Fiesta Bowl playing a MWC or WAC team, or even worse for them, being paired up in a rematch with OU....Could very well happen if Texas doesn't go 13-0 and some other team has one of those special seasons. As for OU, this may not sound like words that should be coming out of the mouth of a diehard Sooners fan, but if OU doesn't get to the BCS title game, I hope they miss a BCS game altogether and end up going someplace like the Cotton or Holiday Bowl. I don't think i could stand to see OU lose another BCS Bowl game. I want to see them get this bowl drought overwith and done. And a second tier bowl sounds like a good place to start.

Maybe Texas will have to play Boise St. GoSooners. You might get a kick out of that if it happens. Boise QB Kellen Moore is extremely underrated to the max. I think this could be the year it's Boise's turn to bust the BCS.

 

[russ1945]

GoSooners: I am not sure about Texas. They do play T Tech at home before they get to OU on the (neutral?) field. This will be a circle game for Texas because they have two cupcakes leading up to that one and they will want to make a statement. If they do not make a statement they are probably in trouble because either OU and OSU will throw the book at them and I don't see Texas winning both games.
As far as OU and bowls go, I don't think all the players stayed around for any other reason than to win it all. OU has two major tests before the Texas game and if they win all three of those they are on their way. If OU's offense is 90% of LY's and their defense improves 15% they are a better team. If their offense develops and they are as good as LY and the defense improves 15% and special teams improve they are a better team than LY's. Personally I was surprised they went as far as they did LY and I will be surprised if they don't go that far again this year. Yes OU has a tougher schedule than Texas or Florida but if they succeed and get to the BCS again they deserve to be there. Last year I am not really sure they deserved to be there. I would rather see them play in a BCS bowl, especially the national championship game and lose again then just win any old bowl just to win. I am sure any thought other than that has not even crossed the minds of their players or coaches. They know what it takes and they have to accept the challenge. There are no guarantees for anybody any way you look at it. I like OU's chances to get there again, but more than that I like their chances of winning it if they get there again.

 

[RunLeeRun]

You know 2009 would get really ugly if whoever won the Big 12, SEC, Big 10, and Pac 10, or any other additional conferences went undeafeated. I know this is a stretch and maybe mathematically impossible due to scheduling, etc. but it would then go to strength of schedule. Despite what everyone thinks that is still problematic, somewhat subjective, and open to endless debate. Same scenario, maybe worse, if everyone who won their conference had two losses. I still think back to LY when Georgia was preseason no.l for all of the right reasons. At least 10 of the preseason top 25 are not there at the end of the year. Despite our and eveyone else's opinions that shit just happens. That is when we have to come to grips with why we are really on this forum talking about this stuff. Because what is important to us is weekly matchups and being on the right side. We are all homers at heart and some of our teams are contenders and some are pretenders and until the season starts we won't know which are which. This all makes for great conversation but in the end what happens and who wins it all is not really my biggest concern until I actually have to pick a side in the BCS championship game.

Touche...and remember all this consensus #1, all these "rankning" are just the media's/coaches opinions, which isn't worth much...just look at last years BCS game, Oklahoma was the number 1 team, yet Florida favored. Vegas has a way better idea than the media.

 

[russ1945]

RLR: If OU is favored in the Texas game that may speak volumes. They will probably have to put an asterix by whatever number they pick.

 

[russ1945]

I was mulling over the Sept schedule and trying to determine who has the toughest go right out of the shoot. Here are a few:
Georgia - at Okie St, S. Car, at Ark, Ariz St.
Oregon - at Boise St, Pur, Utah, Calif
S. Carolina - at N.C. St, at Geo,, Flo Atl, Mississippi
Vir Tech - Ala, Marshall, Neb, Mia Fl (all at home)

Geo, Ore, and VT have high hopes this year so getting off to a good start is a must. Oregon has some key personnel coming back but lost a lot so they may get the lean as to degree of difficulty. I also noticed that at one point of the season Illinois plays at Ohio St, Penn St, and Mich St all right in a row. Wow. I think they are a team to watch but that is a tough stretch to absorb.

Just killing some time.

 

[russ1945]

Xen: Yes I began focusing in on Michigan after reading a Bio on Rich Rodriquez. His success after the first year was incredible at WV and the DC will help big time. A conducive schedule and a big circle on the Notre Dame game and like you point out winning 8 games is in their range. If he is successful Rod will have established himself and quiet the nay sayers in Ann Arbor. There is an unquenched hunger up there and if they get a taste of winning they could be formidable if the QB(s) can get it done. As always scheduling can be the key to success.

I read another article and I should mention that 15 players left the Michigan program when they hired Rodriquez. Also Greg Robinson cold called Rodgriquez about the DC job. He told him "I know you're going to win." He has also said that he thinks Michigan is very hungry, likes their work habits, and that they are very intent.
Cornerback Donovan Warren recently was quoted saying "Guys actually believe in what we're doing. When you believe in what you're doing, you feel more comfortable and put more effort in what you're doing...last year everybody wan't on the the same page, and goes on to say that everybody has bought in.

 

[russ1945]

I was mulling over the Sept schedule and trying to determine who has the toughest go right out of the shoot. Here are a few:
Georgia - at Okie St, S. Car, at Ark, Ariz St.
Oregon - at Boise St, Pur, Utah, Calif
S. Carolina - at N.C. St, at Geo,, Flo Atl, Mississippi
Vir Tech - Ala, Marshall, Neb, Mia Fl (all at home)

Geo, Ore, and VT have high hopes this year so getting off to a good start is a must. Oregon has some key personnel coming back but lost a lot so they may get the lean as to degree of difficulty. I also noticed that at one point of the season Illinois plays at Ohio St, Penn St, and Mich St all right in a row. Wow. I think they are a team to watch but that is a tough stretch to absorb.

Just killing some time.

Just to clarify on Illlinois they play Penn St and Mich St at home.

 

[Flsunman]

Yes, but none of them have his strength.

Mind you percy was small his freshman and sophomore year. But one of the most respected strength coaches in the country(Mickey!!) will change that.