Looking ahead to next season

[Conan]

Conan: No doubt that touts are just like excuses, every one has some they can give you. It's your money and you are the one that pays the man when they lose. It is really about acountability. I know a guy who bets year round, baseball, basketball, football. He takes three services and he makes money. He uses some personal picks but as a rule he seldom goes against a service with a personal pick. So I know some people win that way but he is someone who really doesn't need the money and he is not compulsive and he would not continue on if he was losing. Still, not my way of doing it.
I for the life of me can not figure out why in the throws of an economic debacle like we are in now someone doesn't wise up and pass legislation to legalize online gambling in the US. Why send money off shore and let them control the money. I don't mind paying taxes and just knowing the casinos pay taxes it is just plain stupid not to keep it all in the US. Go figure. I don't know what we are trying to prove. Maybe AIG could book all of us then the Fed could bail them out after every season.

I'd be happy just to have one year's worth of bonuses AIG paid any one of their big honchos with that bailout money. Maybe I'd settle for a plane ride in B of A's new corporate jet they bought with their bailout money. And then they got the gall to give guys like me a bunch of crap for "gambling" off shore with my own money? Is them throwing your money away supposed to be better than letting you gambling with it?

This may be off topic but us offshore bettors have plenty to bitch about without worrying about the touts that operate legally and rake in a fortune from guys who post up and gamble offshore. Personally, I wouldn't pay them a dime. Tell your friend to pocket his tout money and come here instead. He'll win just as much if not more following the hot handicappers right here.

 

[UoweDucks]

If one spent more than a token amount of time here throughout the year I can guarantee that person would be a better handicapper. I know that it has worked for me over the years.

 

[russ1945]

You are right Ducks. I am the new "kid" on the block and I learn something just about every day on this forum. I think that in general if you have to depend on others to pick your winners or losers for you then you probably shouldn't be gambling on that particular sport. Personally College football is about it for me. The schedule runs from late August until Mid January and occupies most of my free time during that period. If you are compulsive by nature then you will probably never dedicate the time that it takes to become an independent thinker. More money is made by going against the public then betting with it. Forums like this serve as a vehicle to pull you out of the public ranks and put you into a venue that can make you more informed and less influenced by the public and by tout services. Probably the main reason that people like us are still on this forum this early is that we miss college football, but more likely, because we have become successful in wagering on college football. You have to take ego out of the equation and it is a constant learning process. My mancave is empty and quiet this time of the year.

 

[Randizzle14]

Just read through this entire thread.....BEST thread have read in awhile. Great stuff guys. I have learned a lot just reading it. Thanks for all the great info and opinions.

 

[Conan]

Just read through this entire thread.....BEST thread have read in awhile. Great stuff guys. I have learned a lot just reading it. Thanks for all the great info and opinions.

Hey there Randizzle! Nice of you to pop in on us. Looking forward to next year along with you!

 

[russ1945]

Just read through this entire thread.....BEST thread have read in awhile. Great stuff guys. I have learned a lot just reading it. Thanks for all the great info and opinions.

Thanks. I read it from start to finish now and then and will continue to do so right up until the season starts. It is kind of like a bulletin board and we can keep on building it up as we go. We have been trying to keep it positive and we appreciate any and all input. Nice to get some encouragement at this point. Good luck.

 

[russ1945]

Just for my amusement and to satisfy my curiosity I was going over last years team records against the spread. Just the regular season, no conference championship games, or bowl games. I just wondered if anything caught my attention while I glanced over them. Consider this. For all of the studying that I am doing now and will continue doing until the season ends, is there a short cut, a no brainer that can save you time and make you money without wasting time or money. I have always thought that Vegas (I say vegas because I think offsore places follow their lead), just flat misses out on some teams. There are some teams that either fly under their radar or they have some kind of prejudice against. After all they are establising lines, not predicting winners although they may and probably do lean one way over another. They are also concerned about how the "public" percieves teams and match ups.
Last year if you would have bet no one but Ala, Flo, O.U., N. Car., and Rutgers during the regular season you would have gone something like 45 wins and 10 losses. At $100.00 a pop that would have netted you $3,400.00. You can do the math from there based on how much you bet per unit.
Now if you had been smart enought to just simply bet against Aub, Ind, LSU, Wash, and Wyo you would have gone something like46 wins and 8 losses. At $100.00 a pop that would have netted you $3,720.00. If you would have done both scenarios you would have gone into the bowls up $7,120.00. Not bad. 84% winners. Hall of fame material.
Well hindsight is twenty twenty but are there lessons to be learned. Of course sorting out these teams at week #1 would have been the trick. Well I don't know the answer.....yet. But I am going to chew on this bone for a while.
I also noted a few trends on individual teams that in and of themselves need to be evaluated further. Baylor finished up the season with 5 ATS wins and they faced Nebraska, Missouri, Texas, and Texas Tech in four of those. Georgia finished up with four ATS losses and barely got by Auburn in one of those. Indiana went 2-9 ATS and has 19 starters returning (is that good, bad, or ugly). Okla St. won their first 8 ATS then dropped 3 straight in the regular season and their bowl ATS). Washington State actually won their last 4 games ATS and have 14 returning staters this year. Michigan was 2 and 9 ATS LY. Mississippi was 8 and 2 ATS LY and have 15 returning starters this year.
I think all in all if anything all of this info will get you a refill on your coffee. Apparently the oddsmakers had trouble setting the lines high enough in some cases, and that the really bad teams were so bad that they just were not competitive at any price.
Like I said I did this for my own amusement but I found it kind of interesting although not necessarily constructive.

 

[Conan]

I was very amused at UW"s record ATS last season because I bet against them nearly every week. It seems that the linemaker never caught up to the real situation. Or, maybe he was accurate and putting up lines to even out the betting... who cares? But the point is that some teams will be over rated and some continuously underrated throughout a season and it's nice when you can see it coming. I think UW is in everyone's "dog house" (no pun intended) so that presents a strong possibility that they will be underrated this year. That's how the linemaker will take advantage of bettors and line his bosses pockets.

This in NO WAY has anything to do with how good or how bad a team is playing. It has everything to do with what people think about how good or how bad a team is playing and how much better or worse it really is compared to their point of view.

It's one thing to be right about a team's prospects but it's a whole different matter when you compare that to what the public in general is thinking of their prospects. That's what the linemaker uses to make his boss money and why these guys make the big bucks. They already know what you are thinking Russ, even better than you know that about yourself. That's one reason why going against the flow works so often.

 

[russ1945]

Check this out. In the past I think I was so focused on the big picture that some things just got over looked. Take Georgia Tech for instance.
They come into 2008 with a new coach, Paul Johnson, who had great success at Navy working with less than what most have. He inherits a team that returns 9 returning starters, 5 on offense with no QB, and 4 on defense. New coach, not much to work with = rebuild right. Wrong. GT goes on to go chalk up 9 wins against 4 losses and goes to a bowl. Not only that but they beat Preseason No. 1 Georgia, and Preseason #9 Clemson, lose to Preseason No. 17 Virginia Tech by 4, and beat BC, Flo St, and Mia Fl. Wow. Can this guy coach or what.
Just for emphasis, only one team in the country had fewer returning starters, Army with 8. This coach deserves to be watched closely.
Being in Big 12 country things like this some times get over looked. I may be late in getting a clue but I get it now.

 

[russ1945]

Continuing on the Georgia Tech line of though I found the following:
Vandy came in to 2008 with 3 ret. off starters (with a QB) and 6 ret. def starters. They went 7-6 and won their bowl game. They started the season 5-0 with wins over S. Car, Miss, and Auborn before the with South. This year they have 8 back on Off and 9 back on Def with no ret. QB. Can they finish off the deal this year.
Mississippi - This one is no surprise as Nutt took 7 ret off starts and 9 ret def starters to a 9-4 season with a bowl win over Texas Tech. This year they return 7 on off (with a QB) and 8 on defense. They laid one on Flo LY and may be an up and coming perenial in the SEC.
Virginia Tech - Returning 6 on off Ly with a QB and only 4 on defense they shook off an early season opening loss to E. Car and went on to be 10-4 with a bowl win over Cinn. This yr they return 8 on off with a QB and 7 on defense. Sounds like they are back on the rise.
These teams bear watching and probably are not going to surprise many people. These programs seem to be arriving and maybe in fact have arrived. With more returning starters they could all improve on LY's performances. Vandy especially gets my attention since they damn near double their returning starters.
Returning starters may not always mean improvement because you have to weigh in sceduling and the strength of your opponents. But I think a team may become a little more predictable the more experienced it is and if enough key players are included.

 

[russ1945]

Another team that I should probably mention is So. Miss. LY first year coach Larry Fedora (former Okie St OC) took a team that returned 6 off starters (no QB) and 4 def starters and went 7-6 with a bowl win over Troy. New coach, new system, no returning QB, not bad. This year he gets 8 ret off starters including a QB and 8 ret def starters. This is IMO a perfect set up for improvement in every department. It is not like he walked into a no brain situation, he simply made the most of what he had to work with. This year could be a break through year for his team. Definitely a team to keep an eye on.

 

[russ1945]

Andy Staples, on SI.com, back in March, mocking the basketball seeding and bracketing, took a shot at how a selection committee might have seeded the teams for football prior to the bowls:
No. 1 - Oklahoma, Florida, Texas, USC
No. 2 - Alabama, Texas Tech, Penn St, Ohio St
No. 3 - Utah, Boise St, TCU, Cincinnati
No. 4 - BYU, Okla. St, Geo Tech, Georgia
No. 5 - Oregon, Mich St, Vir Tech, Pitt
No. 6 - Missouri, BC, N.W., F.S.U.
No. 7 - Ole Miss, Iowa, Orre St, Neb
No. 8 - W Vir, Cal, Arizona, Geo Tech (again?)
No. 9 - LSU, Rice Tulsa, Maryland
No.10 - Ball St, E. Caro, U.N.C. Rutgers
No.11 - Kansas UConn, W. F., Houston
No.12 - Clemson, USF, Cent Mich, Air Force
No.13 - N. Dame, W. Mich, Nev, Kentucky
No.14 - Vandy, Minn, S. Car., Wisconsin
No.15 - So. Miss, La. Tech, Fresno St., Buffalo
No.16 - Troy, Colo. St., Flo Atl, Hawaii

I guess it would take 6 weeks to go through it all going from 32 games, to 16, to 8, to 4, to 2, to 1 championship game. Yeah, that'll happen. I will put that right up there with AIG bailing us all out somewhere down the line. Sure would be fun though. You know come to think of it how about the AIG BCS National Championship Game. They could give away their corporate jet to a needy company at halftime.

 

[russ1945]

Once again I was looking at Phil Steele's site and stumbled across an interesting bunch of statistics. Turnovers are often discussed on here and I have found it extremely difficult to find a reliable source. I still do not have stats for all the teams but Steele has a chart that shows the teams who have forced the most turnovers going back to 2001:
So. Cal (265), Vir Tech (244), Okla (240), W. Vir (234), B.C. (232), So. Miss (226), Haw (224), Ore St (223), Wash St (222), TCU (221), W.F. (221), Boise St (219), Texas 217), Troy (216), Mia Fl (215), U.S.F. (214),
Flo St (212), Utah (212), Ariz St (209), S.Jose St (209), Oregon (209).
These teams showd consistency. LY OU forced 32 and they have averaged 30 over that 8 year span. Texas had 16 LY and avg'd 27 during that span. Miami Fl had 14 Ly after avging 26.88 over the last 8 years.

Another interesting tidbit I found there was true freshmen who played in 2008. The top 10 is as follows:
1.Florida State (22)
2.Miami (21)
3.Arkansas (16)
4.Toledo (15)
5.Alabama (15)
6.SMU (15)
7.Minnesota (14)
8.Georgia (12)
9.Tulane (12)
10.Auburn (12)

 

[russ1945]

I have been checking out the University of Minnesota. Evidentally they are blessed with two QB's, one a talented veteran, and one a young talented potential game breaker. Adam Weber is the vet and MarQueis Gray is the younger guy. Gray could play some wide receiver or running back and will likely see some third down action much like Vince Young did when he was a Freshman. In fact, they invited Greg Smith the OC at Texas the past 12 yrs to come up and and see how Smith used Young back then. So this kid must be talented to warrant all of this attention.
With 10 returning starters on Off (including QB+) and 9 back on Defense this team may come out of the shoot firing. It looks like they are expecting some improvement along both lines and they have playmakers on Def. Definitely a team to keep your eyes on.

 

[GoSooners]

Another interesting tidbit I found there was true freshmen who played in 2008. The top 10 is as follows:
1.Florida State (22)
2.Miami (21)
3.Arkansas (16)
4.Toledo (15)
5.Alabama (15)
6.SMU (15)
7.Minnesota (14)
8.Georgia (12)
9.Tulane (12)
10.Auburn (12)

It's funny that Florida State is at the top of this list...I remember that Bobby Bowden used to have an old saying that went "for every freshman a team starts, you can mark that down as one loss." Not all of these teams on the list were unsuccessful. But by their standards most of them were. Plus there is a difference between playing a freshman and starting a freshman. Although I'm not totally in agreement with Bowden, I think there is some validity to what he said. Out of the 120 or so teams in Division 1, there are only a handful of freshmen that make an impression each season. Not very many. And they usually have to be something pretty special. But on the whole, this kind of inexperience in a lineup can at some point cost a team a game or two.

 

[Conan]

It's funny that Florida State is at the top of this list...I remember that Bobby Bowden used to have an old saying that went "for every freshman a team starts, you can mark that down as one loss." Not all of these teams on the list were unsuccessful. But by their standards most of them were. Plus there is a difference between playing a freshman and starting a freshman. Although I'm not totally in agreement with Bowden, I think there is some validity to what he said. Out of the 120 or so teams in Division 1, there are only a handful of freshmen that make an impression each season. Not very many. And they usually have to be something pretty special. But on the whole, this kind of inexperience in a lineup can at some point cost a team a game or two.

That's an awful lot of freshman talent to waste a season of eligibility on without taking advantage of the benefits of a RS frosh season. I wonder how many teams on that list considered that they got their money's worth from a bunch of 18-year olds who played in games? I don't know exactly what to make of it because a lot of players who make good by their junior season don't stick around to play for their senior year. You have to think differently these days to make sense of all of this.

 

[GoSooners]

That's an awful lot of freshman talent to waste a season of eligibility on without taking advantage of the benefits of a RS frosh season. I wonder how many teams on that list considered that they got their money's worth from a bunch of 18-year olds who played in games? I don't know exactly what to make of it because a lot of players who make good by their junior season don't stick around to play for their senior year. You have to think differently these days to make sense of all of this.

Yeah, I agree. Unless you're a team that had a big graduation turnover and are completely depleted of good players, I don't see any advantage of playing a freshman. There are very few Adrian Peterson's out there who are an exception to this rule.

 

[UoweDucks]

Yeah, I agree. Unless you're a team that had a big graduation turnover and are completely depleted of good players, I don't see any advantage of playing a freshman. There are very few Adrian Peterson's out there who are an exception to this rule.

There was almost a mutiny at UW last year while Willingham was burning redshirts for no good reason other than to try and find lightening in a bottle. His decisions only prolong the problems at UW as I suspect Sarkisian will be forced to try and get back some of those kids redshirts this year.

Interesting thing is I suspect that if this year doesn't go well for UW that some of those guys may just transfer and use the RS for their eligibility year.


Belloti made some curious redshirt decisions throughout his career, some have bit him in the Butt. Most notoriously was his decision to play Dennis Dixon for a few series as a freshman in an effort to asses what he had in him (they were considering a move to WR). They lost that RS and never got it back. Oh what could have been were Dixon around for 2008 season...

 

[russ1945]

One reality of the upcoming 2009 CFB season is that there are some coaches who have to put up or shut up. Indeed some coaching jobs are on the line. Of course all eyes are on South bend and Charlie Weis gets what could be his last chance to get it done. Al Groh at Virgina and Steve kragthrope at Lousville come to mind.Bret Bielema at Wisconsin and Rich Rodriquez at Michigan will be scrtunized in the Big 10. Then there is Steve Spurrier at South Carolina who has a patent on the sideline scorn and Dan Hawkins who is still trying to prove he can play with the big boys. But for me the focus could be on a couple of first year coaches. The first is hardly a rookie, Bill Snyder, who will try to give mouth to mouth to his old program. Hard to figure what the long term picture is there. And how about Gene Chizick who has shown nothing to prove he is worth of the position he now holds. To say he is on a pretty short leash is putting it mildly. Mike Stoops may not be completely out of the woods either at Arizona. And last but not least, Rick Neuheisel at UCLA. He is starting to put some studs in the stable but it's tough when you are the second best team in LA.

 

[russ1945]

Sorry guys I got sidetacked on my Tebow scroll diatribe which I put on another thread. Sorry for the digression. I will be hitting the books this weekend as we in Oklahoma are getting one last winter blast. I see the weather is a big concern in many parts of the country. Between the economy and the weather we have enough on our plates for now. Good luck to those who have suffered the wrath of this winter blast. Maybe Mother Nature got on the steroids like everybody else.