Looking ahead to next season

[russ1945]

Ok found another team to ponder. Minnesota is a team that really has me scrtaching my head. How does a team start the season with 7 wins and 1 loss and then lose 5 straight (including a 55-0 beating by Iowa). They started against 4 cupcakes, that is part of the equation. What really makes me think though is that return 10 starters on offense (20 of 22 on their 2 deep), and return 9 starters on defense (17 of 22 on their 2 deep).
Now their point differential is -7.3 ppg (15.75 on Off while giving up 25 ppg). This is the scenario that Conan referred to about returning starters may not being a good thing. Now Phil Steele shows 11 returning on offense and five on defense so I have to do some more homework. So this team looks like a team that will either continue to be mediocre or step it up. I am by no means saying that this team is going to go one way or the other but if you take out the Iowa fiasco they are a competitive team based on the OOC and their league. I will wait for Steele's preseason magazine to come out and crunch some more numbers based on what he shows. Their numbers are not top of the line but much higher than I expected. They are not a team I typically look at often but with that much coming back on offense they may have an early season advantage in that department.

 

[Conan]

Conan: It is interesting that you mentioned Longhsore. I don't get to see that many west coast games but he never showed me much. He absolutely stunk it up in his last bowl game and I thought they could have won that one if they had pulled him in time. I guess Tedford owed him one for whatever reason. I'll back off of Arizona for a while and I'll look for another team to focus on.

Longshore never cracked up to everyone's expectations. After a guy named Joseph Ayoob who threw away a lot of games for Cal left, everyone thought Cal's days of terrible QB's were over. Longshore should have been the starter the year Ayoob started but he was injured. The following year he had to start his first game on the road in Tennessee. What a horrible game he and Cal played. He was zero in effectiveness. He didn't do too badly after that game but nothing to write home about. But then he did soso well the following season, but he played well in a few games, especially in Cal's rematch vs Tennessee, but nothing too spectacular. Then last year he was hurt again and he seemed to lose it when he returned and that was about the end of it.

Ho hum.

 

[UoweDucks]

Conan: I am not saying Arizona will win the Pac 10 by any means. But a team that loses all five of it's games by a total of 5.5ppg tells me that it is a competive team. In terms of numbers it is the returning TD scorers that impress me in particular but they have more coming back than other teams in the Pac 10 in general. As to depth and quality, sure they are not a USC but they might be able to reload easier than say Oregon or Oregon St (who only beat them on a last minute field goal LY).

Stoops and his staff have not proven much on the recruiting front. I consider him a subpar recruiter, talent evaluator and a very poor gameday coach. He is still growing but I attribute much of their success in last two years to one person; Willie Tuitama. With him no longer there the jury is WAY out on AZ.


I see a 7-5 season as the best possible finish for them and I would say the odds of this with a green qb are very very slim.

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Corvallis​

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Bye​

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Tucson​

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Bye​

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Washington State​

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California​

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Berkeley​

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Oregon​

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ASU​

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Tempe​

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USC​

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Los Angeles​

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[Conan]

Thanks for the schedule graph Ducks. I agree 7 wins at best. Stanford may upset them at home so only 6 wins is possible.

I'm also glad you mentioned how critical to their offense Tuitama was. And also keeping in mind that Tuitama was the first QB at that school ever to post respectable stats. According to my memory, they've always been known as a defense-minded team. Whatever happened to that distinction, especially with OU's former DC running the team? I just don't get it.

Another good point about their gameday coaching. New Mexico should never have beaten them. IMHO, their "almost" wins are not an indication of how good their season could have gone, but rather how poorly they wrapped up their opponents. When you look at their losses vs USC and Oregon St., you'd have to conclude that their strong offense sputtered vs better defenses. When they played Oregon, after having a 3 or 4 score lead at some point, they collapsed and blew that game badly. As long as their defense continues to come up short, I can't take them seriously as an ominous threat.

 

[russ1945]

Ok guys lets look at some facts. As already mentioned Oregon St beat Arizona on a last minute field goal. If you look at the box score of the Oregon game it really makes you wonder. First of all, that was Arizona's largest losing margin LY. In the Oregon game Arizona had 30 first downs to Oregon's 18. Arizona led time of possession 41:46 to 18:14. They started out the game down 14 after Tuitama threw an interception for a 31 yd return and score. Early in the third quarter Oregon led 48 to 17 and with 6:38 left in the game Arizona cut it to 48-45. Oregon put it away with an extra TD with 3:38 left to play. Final tally Arizona 527 yds to Oregon's 504 yds. One of the damnest box scores I have ever seen and a game I wish I could have watched. Now I want to emphasize that was the biggest losing margin they had all year including a 7 point loss to USC.
Tuitama threw another interception and did throw for 328 yards. The big producers that day were RB's Antolin and Grigsby and Arizona rushed for 199 yards. Antolin scored 4 TD's. The big reciever was Gronkowski with 12 receptions for 143 yards and one TD. Tuitama does not return, Antolin, Grigsby, and Gronkowski do return. That is about half of LY's yardage and 5 TD's. I am going to this much detail to emphasize how much they have returning. These are productive players. In my opinion a QB who can run and throw fits the system better than Tuitama.
Now I guess you could argue that Arizona did not close the deal but they made a hell of a come back. I repeat that was the largest margin for a loss they had in 2008. I am simply saying that I listen to you guys but I do my homework also. The jury is still out and the QB will meet his maker at Iowa but if he passes the test I think a 7-0 start is a possibility.

 

[Conan]

Fair enough Russ. So noted.

 

[UoweDucks]

Ok guys lets look at some facts. As already mentioned Oregon St beat Arizona on a last minute field goal. If you look at the box score of the Oregon game it really makes you wonder. First of all, that was Arizona's largest losing margin LY. In the Oregon game Arizona had 30 first downs to Oregon's 18. Arizona led time of possession 41:46 to 18:14. They started out the game down 14 after Tuitama threw an interception for a 31 yd return and score. Early in the third quarter Oregon led 48 to 17 and with 6:38 left in the game Arizona cut it to 48-45. Oregon put it away with an extra TD with 3:38 left to play. Final tally Arizona 527 yds to Oregon's 504 yds. One of the damnest box scores I have ever seen and a game I wish I could have watched. Now I want to emphasize that was the biggest losing margin they had all year including a 7 point loss to USC.
Tuitama threw another interception and did throw for 328 yards. The big producers that day were RB's Antolin and Grigsby and Arizona rushed for 199 yards. Antolin scored 4 TD's. The big reciever was Gronkowski with 12 receptions for 143 yards and one TD. Tuitama does not return, Antolin, Grigsby, and Gronkowski do return. That is about half of LY's yardage and 5 TD's. I am going to this much detail to emphasize how much they have returning. These are productive players. In my opinion a QB who can run and throw fits the system better than Tuitama.
Now I guess you could argue that Arizona did not close the deal but they made a hell of a come back. I repeat that was the largest margin for a loss they had in 2008. I am simply saying that I listen to you guys but I do my homework also. The jury is still out and the QB will meet his maker at Iowa but if he passes the test I think a 7-0 start is a possibility.

I was at this game. Here is what happened. Oregon went up huge in the first half. It was embarrassingly easy by a score of 45 to 17. The players went into the locker room thinking about what they were going to do that night after the game and came out flat as hell. The teams went back and forth in the 3rd quarter but no damage was really done but in the 4th quarter things blew up for AZ. They exposed the ducks in the flat with Antolin and and down the seam with the Gronks. It happened fast and I was damn pissed at the DC that night because everyone in the stands could see the breakdown defensively. I don't care what level you play on you never allow a TE to release downfield without making contact... Anyway I give credit to AZ for that comeback but the credit for it on the field went to Tui who executed extremely well checking down to find his 2nd and 3rd options and making excellent decisions under pretty intense pressure. It was impressive. Do I think that a green QB could have executed that? no chance.

Look at it this way, AZ with a 4 year starter at QB finally managed to get bowl eligibility. It is important to understand AZ's offense, they use pass to set up run, and is fairly complex. It is HIGHLY dependant on the QB making fast decisions. Tui was responsible for 56% of their offensive output. It is not as if Scott is an upperclassman with a ton of experience. He has just 11 pass attempts career, I think it is prudent to assume that he will not be able to duplicate Tui's production. It is widely known that Scott while mobile, has the weakest arm of the remaining qb's...

7-0 with a green QB would mean 3 road wins two of which would be damn impressive. AZ hasn't been a good road team at all under Stoops tenure. If it happens I will be shocked and be happy to give you full credit for seeing it this early.

Good dialogue.

 

[GoSooners]

Ok guys lets look at some facts. As already mentioned Oregon St beat Arizona on a last minute field goal. If you look at the box score of the Oregon game it really makes you wonder. First of all, that was Arizona's largest losing margin LY. In the Oregon game Arizona had 30 first downs to Oregon's 18. Arizona led time of possession 41:46 to 18:14. They started out the game down 14 after Tuitama threw an interception for a 31 yd return and score. Early in the third quarter Oregon led 48 to 17 and with 6:38 left in the game Arizona cut it to 48-45. Oregon put it away with an extra TD with 3:38 left to play. Final tally Arizona 527 yds to Oregon's 504 yds. One of the damnest box scores I have ever seen and a game I wish I could have watched. Now I want to emphasize that was the biggest losing margin they had all year including a 7 point loss to USC.
Tuitama threw another interception and did throw for 328 yards. The big producers that day were RB's Antolin and Grigsby and Arizona rushed for 199 yards. Antolin scored 4 TD's. The big reciever was Gronkowski with 12 receptions for 143 yards and one TD. Tuitama does not return, Antolin, Grigsby, and Gronkowski do return. That is about half of LY's yardage and 5 TD's. I am going to this much detail to emphasize how much they have returning. These are productive players. In my opinion a QB who can run and throw fits the system better than Tuitama.
Now I guess you could argue that Arizona did not close the deal but they made a hell of a come back. I repeat that was the largest margin for a loss they had in 2008. I am simply saying that I listen to you guys but I do my homework also. The jury is still out and the QB will meet his maker at Iowa but if he passes the test I think a 7-0 start is a possibility.

Russ...I don't really see Arizona coming out of next season with any better than a 5-7 to 6-6 record. And I was one of the few who came on here last season saying that Arizona was going to be one of my surprise teams. A few cappers that I really respect disagreed with me. I think Ducks might have also thought they might surprise too. But the ONLY reason i said it was because the stars were lined up for Zona with such an easy and favorable schedule with a returning veteran QB and 10 offensive starters returning. More times than not this combination will get you a winning season despite having a very mediocre head coach. But despite the high amount of starters that Zona has returning next season, they are still the same players. This past season they weren't very physical on the front 7 on defense. Good offensive running teams were able to have successs on them. And unless they improve quite a bit, good running teams like Oregon and Iowa are going to have their way with them. But there are several more reasons why i don't like them to repeat this season's success. Like has been previously stated, Tuitama was a HUGE part of their offense. Although improved this year on the OL, they still weren't that particually strong. Most of their success was due to the scrambling abiulity and decision making of their QB. I don't see any redshirt or sophomore QB coming in and repeating the 60% passing and completion to interception ratio of Tuitama. And that's where the problem lies. Because of the kind of offense that Zona runs, it works against them when trying to cash in with a new QB. Zona was pretty much on top of the Pac-10 pass rankings with USC all year. When you lose that part of your game what do you have? They aren't a team like an Oregon or a USC who can also kill you with the running game. And they don't have a well balanced enough offense like those two teams where if they lost their QB they can recover. But I think Conan or Ducks will tell you that the number one luxury that Zona has enjoyed over the years is their home field advantage. Zona has always been a much different team at home than they are on the road. And they lose that edge next year. Stoops isn't the kind of coach who is known for tutoring new QB's. If Zona was a run oriented offense instead of a pass offense I might feel a little different.. But out of all of the Division 1 teams in coillege football, how many first year QB's do you see emerge as stars every season? The only two that I can think of from last season was Russell Wilson of NCST and Robert Griffin of Baylor. And I don't really see anybody special emerging from Zona next year. Like I said, if their offense didn't revolve around the QB play so much i would feel different. But I've seen this scenerio too many times before. And this is a case where the QB and the home field advantage will be missed much more than most think.

 

[UoweDucks]

Yes GOS,
We were both high on AZ last year, here were my preseason predictions made back in July. Not too far off...

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RX Senior



Join Date: Jan 2005
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PAC 10 media day + my predictions
<hr style="color: rgb(253, 222, 130); background-color: rgb(253, 222, 130);" size="1"> <!-- / icon and title --> <!-- message --> First off here are the media picks for the conference:

1, USC (38 first-place votes), 389 total points
2, Arizona State, 330
3, Oregon, 295
4, Cal (1), 274
5, UCLA, 204
6, Oregon State, 192
7, Arizona, 185
8, Washington, 139
9, Stanford, 76
10, Washington State, 61

I really disagree with a few of these. Here is my prediction:

1, USC - No Brainer, great schedule, only weakness could be offensive production, could struggle with teams that have offensive firepower and speed to match that D. ie Oregon
2, Oregon - Tougher schedule but will own the trenches in almost every contest, also team depth has never been this good.
3, ASU - Too many ?'s at Oline to put them at 2
4, Arizona - Offensively this may be top team in conf. Will surprise people
5, Cal - I think CAL is the enigma team, giving Tedford the credit though, thinking 7 wins
6, Oregon State - Way too many ?'s at QB and front 7 defensively to put higher
7, UCLA - Oline issues will kill this team all year long. Look for at least 2 more qb's to go down over year
8, Washington - Locker is terrific, but too much youth and inexperience will hurt them
9, Stanford - Love the D. If offense can stay healthy could surprise to the upside. Love them in game one vs OSU
10, Washington State - Tough first year for Wulf, no depth in key areas defensively this team will be easy to score on.


I have been working on my composite schedule breakdown and will post when finished...
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[russ1945]

I find myself defending a team that I have no iron in the fire with. They simply stand out over many others in the Pac 10 as far as returning firepower. Now as far as Tuitama goes, he is a pure thrower and they probably did use the pass to set up the run. They may indeed turn the tables with a less talented thrower and a much better runner. To me the toughest kinds of teams to defend are the ones who do the latter. I think it may be in Stoops' best interests to redesign his offense to better suit his QB next year. However, I will maintain till the end that Antolin, Grigsby, and Gronkowski will take a lot of pressure off of that QB, whoever he is. Hell, they may platoon at QB and still get the job done. Any team whose losses avg. less than 5.5 points a game and returns as much as they return deems watching.
One thing I might point out about the Arizona vs. Oregon game. That was the game where the Ducks debuted their new "lights out" all black uniforms and helmut and the team and the crowd were pumped. That could help explain the big start and the cool down later on. It is hard to maintain that kind of enthusiam.
You guys said you had Arizona as an up and comer last year. Many people had Notre Dame in that department also. It could have been just a year early and I expect both teams to come through this year instead.

 

[russ1945]

Phil Steele has been taking votes to see who the preseason top 25 will be.
Iowa was voted No. 7. Looks like some Arizona QB(s) will have a trial by fire about the third game of the season.

 

[everythingthatsgreen]

Oky guys, what are you hearing about JUCO WR Cameron Kenney. Looks like someone who could step in and help at WR right away

any answer on this

 

[russ1945]

I just finished my breakdown on the PAC 10. I should begin by saying that USC stands out especially on defense where they gave up only 9 points a game. No one even came close in that department and that category alone separates them from everyone else in the conference. I know that is painfully obvious but only two teams have returning starters who accounted for 27 pg and that was USC and Arizona. The problem is that both teams lost valuable QB's but USC is probably the only team in the conf who can reload in that department. Arizona lost a valuable player in Tuitama and a good WR but they return players who accounted for 50 of LY's 57 TD's. I am not going to reveal the actual numerical values I came up with because I still have a long ways to go and I want to verify some numbers later on. However, based on what I have now it comes down to this:
1. USC
2. Arizona (I know !)
3. California
4. Oregon State
5. Oregon
6. Stanford
7. Arizona State
8. Washington
9. UCLA
10. Washington St. (who has the lowest rating of the 60 teams I have evaluated and it wasn't even close)
Still more to factor in but USC, Ariz, and Cal are substantially separated from the rest of the pack, with Ore St, Ore, Stan, and Ariz St closely grouped, and Wash, UCLA, and Wash St way back with all three winding up with negative numbes (yes, less than zero.)

Who ever is able to shore up their defenses are the ones who will finish near the top. Still a lot to evaluate and spring practice is just around the corner. Also need to weigh in recruits who may have immediate impact and other factors. I know this will piss some people off (and I know who they are) but later on when I do release my numbers you will be able to compare and see why it is turning out this way. I am also going to filter in returning players from LY's two deeps but that info is hard to find and I may have to do that late July or early Aug. I know this may not make much sense but I see no reason to bore you with numbers this early on and I am going to continue to scrutinize and evaluate them.

 

[GoSooners]

Russ...I talked to a friend of mine who lives in Arizona. He sounds like he is a little higher on Zona than I am. One thing we probably know for sure with them; they did remarkably well on defense last year considering they only had 3 starters back. So they could be a completely different team this next season with the emphasis being on defense. But it always makes me nervous when a team loses a 4 year starting QB. They also lose an NFL caliber WR and their best OL (Britton). But they still have perhaps the best TE in the country with Gronkowski. Zona will be an interesting story next season. We'll see just how good Stoops can coach when he's under fire to duplicate this last season. My friend was also pretty high on Arizona State's defense. It looks like they're building a pretty nice unit. The Devils also should be good at RB and WR. And losing Carpenter may be a blessing in disguise. So the Arizona teams should have a lot of say on what goes on in the Pac-10. Personally, the team that I think will improve the most in the Pac is Stanford. My bet is they'll win at least 6 or 7 games to become bowl eligible for the first time in 8 years. Much of their success might depend on if RB Gerhart returns. They say he's a heck of a baseball player too.

 

[UoweDucks]

Russ,
I'll lay off the AZ kick I get that you like them...


Is that your predicted order of finish or just a breakdown of teams via your rankings system?

Either way I am curious if you factor in schedule strength.


Sooners,
Just like AZ last year I believe that Stanford could be the surprise team of the conference this year. Got to watch that QB battle very closely.

I'll have to wait and see about ASU because that was a team that showed no heart last year and that Oline was as bad as I have seen in some time. ASU lost their Oline coach to UW and I know that upset Erickson. Lots of questions remain for them.

 

[russ1945]

Russ,
I'll lay off the AZ kick I get that you like them...


Is that your predicted order of finish or just a breakdown of teams via your rankings system?

Either way I am curious if you factor in schedule strength.


Sooners,
Just like AZ last year I believe that Stanford could be the surprise team of the conference this year. Got to watch that QB battle very closely.

I'll have to wait and see about ASU because that was a team that showed no heart last year and that Oline was as bad as I have seen in some time. ASU lost their Oline coach to UW and I know that upset Erickson. Lots of questions remain for them.

No these are not how I expect them to finish, just the way they stack up according to the numbers. Yes I still am going to factor in depth (returning 2 deeps on both sides of the ball, strength of schedule, and some other things. My main reason for doing this is not to predict top 25's or conference finishes. My main object is to have a reliable tool to show how teams match up one on one. A sidebar would be to find a few teams who might not be public or might fly under the radar for a while.
So I plan on matching teams strengths and weakneses one on one and look for some mismatches and/or advantages that one team may have over another based on some reliable (I hope) numbers. We all do that one way or another, I am just trying to find something I can perpetuate, track, and make adjustments too. Hopefully I will be able to roll them over from season to season and find some indicators for success that will become helpful in making the transition from season to season. Last year 11 teams that were picked to be in the top25 did not make it. I want to be on the right side of that equation early and often.

 

[GoSooners]

Ducks...This is the way a friend of mine sees the Pac-10 so far. And I'm pretty much in agreement with him:

1.USC-Could be better on offense (they return all 18 OL from last year...All 18!) No wonder Carroll wasn't happy to see Sanchez go. They do lose a ton on defense. But they also have a ton of talent in waiting to take over. Plus in my opinion Carroll is a good defensive type of coach. So I don't think they'll be hurting too bad there.

2.Cal...Has problems on the OL. (lose possibly best college center in Mack) Riley will be back at QB. They lose a lot at linebacker, but from what I've read have some talented guys ready to step in.

3.Oregon...Loses something off of each line and their defense looks average. But some very good skill players though.

4.Oregon State...Same thing as Oregon. Plus they lose their entire secondary.

5.Stanford...I like the Cards to challenge for a bowl. Maybe 6 to 7 wins. But there is a chance Gerhart doesn't return because he is also a heck of a baseball player.

6.Arizona...As stated many times in this thread, their offense shouldn't be as effective as last season. But they do return the majority of what was a surprisenly strong defense last year. The tougher schedule hurts this team a little. But as the season moves along, I think they do get better. And with an improved defense might pull a surprise or two on the road.

7.Arizona State...The Devils look they are starting to build a pretty solid defense. They look pretty salty with the main question being at safety (lost all-conference Nolan) The offense is another story. But I should point out that it was terrible last year. So it could possibly improve with a more experienced OL coming back. Like Ducks said, the OL coach leaving and the one coming in could be the big decider of how far they'll go on offense.

8.UCLA...I look for the Bruins to be improved (how could they not?) They should have a good D at the very least.

9 & 10.The two Washington schools...Both of these teams couldn't be that bad again. But they both still have a long ways to go. I don't think we'll see WSU getting 35 to 40 points a game next year.

Guys, the first thing I judge a conference by is defense. That's why I'm always high on the SEC most every year. I think defensively the Pac-10 will be the strongest conference that they've been in the last few years. With the exception of USC and possibly Oregon, it's the offenses that will come into question. But I think the conference has a lot of potential for next year. It will be interesting to see who emerges as the second best team under USC. I personally think it could be more than a two team dogfight between Oregon and Cal. Stanford, OSU and one or both of the Arizona teams could have a lot of say in the conference standings.

 

[UoweDucks]

Good stuff,
I've never done this prior to spring so I would reserve the right to rejigger this as things progress but here goes.

Tier one: USC, ORE, CAL
Of the three Oregon has by far the most favorable schedule playing the other two teams at home. Each team has excellent depth, coaching and gamebreaking playmakers.

Tier two: OSU, Stan, AZ
I think it is possible that Stanford will emerge as the best of these three but their D will need to shore up losses. Each team has top level talent in a few position groups but lacks depth. Coaching and qb experience/depth favors the beavs over the other two.

Tier three: ASU, UCLA
Where are the playmakers? Unless someone surprises, key questions at many position groups will hinder these teams bowl chances.

Tier Toilet: UW, WSU
I predict some money could be made on UW and WSU if we see a return of those inflated lines again in early season. Both teams should be an improved version of last year. But injuries will again take their toll and severe lack of depth will be exposed.

 

[russ1945]

Breakdown for the Big 12:
North
1. OU
2. O.S.U.
3. Texas
4. Baylor
5. Texas Tech
6. Texas A & M
South
1. Kansas
2. Colorado
3. Missouri
4. Nebraska
5. Kansas St.
6. Iowa State
Again this is how the numbers pop up - I am not predicting them to finish in this order. The South could boil down to who can out score the others unless someone unleashes a defense. The North is all Kansas as no one even has numbers close to theirs. Nebraska is sort of a mystery team.
More to factor in later but I will mention that so far OU had the third highest numbers so far behind USC and Florida. However, if Texas reloads without missing a beat they are right there.

 

[russ1945]

I have spent a couple of hours crunching numbers today. After I made the post above this one I realized I had grossly understated something when I said that Kansas was heads and shoulders above everyone else in the Big 12 North. The other five teams when averaged together avg. less than zero. Colorado rated highest at +1.5. Only nine teams have rated less than zero with Wash St, Wash, Purdue, Indiana, and N.W. rounding out the list. Two of those teams get new coaches (Wash & Pur). Thank God I have six months to get through this. My biggest hope is to learn some things by the end of next season that I can apply to the 2010 season, etc. I still expect these numbers to have relevancy in 2009 and the secret may be making the correct adjustments as the season progresses.
So far my biggest surprises are how high Ariz, Cal, Mia Fl, and Kan show up while I am equally surprised how low the numbers are on Oregon, Ohio State, Utah, and Stanford. I am constantly being reminded of certain teams ability to "reload". I would be interested to hear from anyone who feels that they think a certain team(s) could be ahead of the curve in that department. I would expecially be interested to hear anything on the eight teams I just mentioned that could be positive or negative.