Fri Holland 2 2pm
DeGraaf/Volendam over 3 goals .75u to win .65u
seems the clearest bet from 2nd division today. You have the top scoring away team in the league, Volendam, against the #2 scoring home team, DeGraafschap. Only 1 of Volendam's last 10 games have fallen below 3 goals and just 1 of their last 9 road games have fallen below 3 goals (1u, 4 push, 4 win). DeGraaf offensive numbers not so great after the break but did score in 13 of last 14 games. They've conceded in 8 of last 9 at home and before getting shut out last year vs Volendam had scored 4-2-4-3-4-2 against them here.
DeGraaf/Volendam over 3 goals .75u to win .65u
seems the clearest bet from 2nd division today. You have the top scoring away team in the league, Volendam, against the #2 scoring home team, DeGraafschap. Only 1 of Volendam's last 10 games have fallen below 3 goals and just 1 of their last 9 road games have fallen below 3 goals (1u, 4 push, 4 win). DeGraaf offensive numbers not so great after the break but did score in 13 of last 14 games. They've conceded in 8 of last 9 at home and before getting shut out last year vs Volendam had scored 4-2-4-3-4-2 against them here.
Lens 1-1...dang i'm getting into a lot of draws in these first 6 weeks...
YTD 14-4-17 +4.65 (28.66 risked)
interesting games today. PSG are flying in 2014 and only lost away in Portugal in the past 2 yr in CL. Leverkusen pretty uneven results and play but Germans hosting French historically are very strong
Barca better quality than City but away in CL has not been great to them winning just once in last 6. City great at home except in CL where they couldn't beat any top club here last couple years.
maybe a pair of draws?
YTD 14-4-17 +4.65 (28.66 risked)
interesting games today. PSG are flying in 2014 and only lost away in Portugal in the past 2 yr in CL. Leverkusen pretty uneven results and play but Germans hosting French historically are very strong
Barca better quality than City but away in CL has not been great to them winning just once in last 6. City great at home except in CL where they couldn't beat any top club here last couple years.
maybe a pair of draws?
thx Indy, gl to you as well....
prices dropped now on both but here is my reasoning:
prices dropped now on both but here is my reasoning:
Penarol vs Santos
- very low line for either of these teams who are known for excellent attacking play. Santos have one of the most impressive attacking groups in the Americas with Mexican starting national team striker Oribe Peralta next to Colombian international, Darwin Quintero and a very talented midfield. They play a nice counter style in away games and have scored in 9 of last 10 away and are coming off a nice 3-2 win over Toluca last Friday. Penarol with highly rated youngers Rodgriguez in attack plus vets like Zalayeta and Estoyanoff plus Argentine Fernandez and very experienced in this cup. They drew weak DANZ last week and really DANZ should have been 2-0 ahead at the break then Penarol turned it on in 2H and created a lot of chances. They played a pair of 1 goal games in Copa last year here but the others were full of goals. They have 3 matches played in 2014 so far and scored + conceded in each (2-1, 2-2, 1-1) while Santos both scored and conceded in 10 of last 14. I like BTTS so will play the 2 goal line for 2u despite the pathetic offense that was played in this tourney last week.
- very low line for either of these teams who are known for excellent attacking play. Santos have one of the most impressive attacking groups in the Americas with Mexican starting national team striker Oribe Peralta next to Colombian international, Darwin Quintero and a very talented midfield. They play a nice counter style in away games and have scored in 9 of last 10 away and are coming off a nice 3-2 win over Toluca last Friday. Penarol with highly rated youngers Rodgriguez in attack plus vets like Zalayeta and Estoyanoff plus Argentine Fernandez and very experienced in this cup. They drew weak DANZ last week and really DANZ should have been 2-0 ahead at the break then Penarol turned it on in 2H and created a lot of chances. They played a pair of 1 goal games in Copa last year here but the others were full of goals. They have 3 matches played in 2014 so far and scored + conceded in each (2-1, 2-2, 1-1) while Santos both scored and conceded in 10 of last 14. I like BTTS so will play the 2 goal line for 2u despite the pathetic offense that was played in this tourney last week.
Mogi Mirim vs XV de Piracicaba
- should be -0.25 line with Mogi at home where they are excellent. Not the best defensive team but good attacking play and 2-2-0 home this season. In serie C they were 6-2-1 at home and last year in Paulista a solid 8-2-2. XV have a decent season going but many missings today and terrible road team. They have one day less rest and coming off a mini-miracle home victory against the worst team in the league overturning an Oeste 2-1 lead with less than 5 minutes left. Part of the reason for their recent awful performances (2 losses and the miracle win vs Oeste) is injuries and suspensions which won't subside today with no less than 8 players on the shelf and a 9th, Pipico (starting striker played 7/8 matches), who had his contract canceled after the sending off vs Oeste. The club also canceled contracts of backup attackers Felipe Adão & Danilo Santos so it's a club in a lot of disarray. As far as road results they've failed to score in any of their 3 trips this season and last year were 1-1-5 before their first road win. Even in the fall Copa Paulista tourney they had just 3 road wins against low level competition. Using a backup keeper against a good offense like Mogi should see a lot of goals so I like both over 2.5 and home pk line....
- should be -0.25 line with Mogi at home where they are excellent. Not the best defensive team but good attacking play and 2-2-0 home this season. In serie C they were 6-2-1 at home and last year in Paulista a solid 8-2-2. XV have a decent season going but many missings today and terrible road team. They have one day less rest and coming off a mini-miracle home victory against the worst team in the league overturning an Oeste 2-1 lead with less than 5 minutes left. Part of the reason for their recent awful performances (2 losses and the miracle win vs Oeste) is injuries and suspensions which won't subside today with no less than 8 players on the shelf and a 9th, Pipico (starting striker played 7/8 matches), who had his contract canceled after the sending off vs Oeste. The club also canceled contracts of backup attackers Felipe Adão & Danilo Santos so it's a club in a lot of disarray. As far as road results they've failed to score in any of their 3 trips this season and last year were 1-1-5 before their first road win. Even in the fall Copa Paulista tourney they had just 3 road wins against low level competition. Using a backup keeper against a good offense like Mogi should see a lot of goals so I like both over 2.5 and home pk line....
manuel pellegrini is a fucking clueless idiot. how can you blame the ref? blame starting kolarov, clichy, and demichelis against a top 3 club in the world! he doesn't believe 1) the trip was a penalty and 2) that is was red-card worthy? wow...really aren't going to find a more clear red card violation than that one. I guess you can argue the beginning of the trip was on the line but i thought the true contact was certainly in the box.
MP even took it as far as saying a swedish referee cannot be qualified to ref a CL KO game? wtf does it matter where he's from? The truth is a Chilean coach is never qualified to run a top 10 club in the world and he's the reason they're sitting in 3rd on the table and about to be out of Europe....again
MP even took it as far as saying a swedish referee cannot be qualified to ref a CL KO game? wtf does it matter where he's from? The truth is a Chilean coach is never qualified to run a top 10 club in the world and he's the reason they're sitting in 3rd on the table and about to be out of Europe....again
a couple of things played in europe...one today, one tomorrow. liking a copa lib match late night
Champions League Wed
Atletico Madrid 1H pk double with Bayern to score 1u to win .81u
- Atletico have trailed at HT just one out of 30 league or CL games all season (trailed 1-0 in Porto) while Bayern haven't been held scoreless since they lost to Arsenal 63 games ago
Europa League Thu
Paok +1/4 .68u to win .75u
- GOY for paok who lost here in CL just once in 11 games and 2x in 17. L3 times Benfica played in Greece they lost 1-0 at Oly, 1-0 at AEK, and 5-1 at Oly and greeks are 5-3-1 at home vs portuguese L9 and 7-4-2 L13. tough match, big chance for draw so will take the +111 on 1/4 line (can also take -127 for +1/2 line if preferred)
Copa Lib later....
Champions League Wed
Atletico Madrid 1H pk double with Bayern to score 1u to win .81u
- Atletico have trailed at HT just one out of 30 league or CL games all season (trailed 1-0 in Porto) while Bayern haven't been held scoreless since they lost to Arsenal 63 games ago
Europa League Thu
Paok +1/4 .68u to win .75u
- GOY for paok who lost here in CL just once in 11 games and 2x in 17. L3 times Benfica played in Greece they lost 1-0 at Oly, 1-0 at AEK, and 5-1 at Oly and greeks are 5-3-1 at home vs portuguese L9 and 7-4-2 L13. tough match, big chance for draw so will take the +111 on 1/4 line (can also take -127 for +1/2 line if preferred)
Copa Lib later....
