Feyenoord vs Vitesse
- line should be 3.5 here not a straight 3 goals. Feyenoord off to crazy offensive start to 2014 scoring 8 and conceding 8 in just 3 matches and have scored in every match for the past calendar year at home. Vitesse just 2-1/1-1 to start 2014 but ended 2013 with 4-4-5-8 goals in last 4 matches of Dec and have only seen one game, the 1-1 last match, fall below 3 goals since the first weekend in November and Sept 1 before that. Teams are avg 3.55 and 3.60 gpg this year and Vitesse are the league's #1 visitor scorer with 25 road goal while Feye with 28 home goals. Wrong line for me...should be 3.5 by game time.
- line should be 3.5 here not a straight 3 goals. Feyenoord off to crazy offensive start to 2014 scoring 8 and conceding 8 in just 3 matches and have scored in every match for the past calendar year at home. Vitesse just 2-1/1-1 to start 2014 but ended 2013 with 4-4-5-8 goals in last 4 matches of Dec and have only seen one game, the 1-1 last match, fall below 3 goals since the first weekend in November and Sept 1 before that. Teams are avg 3.55 and 3.60 gpg this year and Vitesse are the league's #1 visitor scorer with 25 road goal while Feye with 28 home goals. Wrong line for me...should be 3.5 by game time.
Wed France 1pm
Marseille vs Valenciennes
- really just a bet against Marseille who are awful right now. It had been something like 35 years since they allowed 3 goals in a home match and actually allowed FIVE against little 'ol Nice who only avg 1 goal scored per game in league play. Despite a long injury list Valenciennes are playing best football of their season and haven't lost by multiple goals in a league game since September. Included in there were recent win at Monaco, draw at Lyon, and two draws at Rennes. BIG rest advantage for away team as well as this is just their 2nd game in past 18 days....it is Marseille's 5th match in 17 days! Still, it's France and not worth more than a small bet
Valenciennes +1 goal .59u to win .5u
Marseille vs Valenciennes
- really just a bet against Marseille who are awful right now. It had been something like 35 years since they allowed 3 goals in a home match and actually allowed FIVE against little 'ol Nice who only avg 1 goal scored per game in league play. Despite a long injury list Valenciennes are playing best football of their season and haven't lost by multiple goals in a league game since September. Included in there were recent win at Monaco, draw at Lyon, and two draws at Rennes. BIG rest advantage for away team as well as this is just their 2nd game in past 18 days....it is Marseille's 5th match in 17 days! Still, it's France and not worth more than a small bet
Valenciennes +1 goal .59u to win .5u
Wed parlay England/Germany
- one other small bet for this afternoon....Bayern to beat Stuttgart and Chelsea to win 1H vs West Ham
Bayern + Chelsea 1H .52u to win .5u
-not much to say about Bayern...nearly 2 years now since they lost away in league, 21-4-0, and 42 straight league games without defeat. Stuttgart have a terrible defense and have dropped 9 straight to Bayern
- Hammers aren't even competitive right now and are particularly bad early in games. City were 2-0 up on them in 25' last game and in 26' in previous meeting, Newcastle 2-0 up in 33', Forest ahead in 16' .... hell even United were up 2-0 in 36' ... anyway, you get the picture. Chelsea have led at HT in 6 of their last 7 league games at home
- one other small bet for this afternoon....Bayern to beat Stuttgart and Chelsea to win 1H vs West Ham
Bayern + Chelsea 1H .52u to win .5u
-not much to say about Bayern...nearly 2 years now since they lost away in league, 21-4-0, and 42 straight league games without defeat. Stuttgart have a terrible defense and have dropped 9 straight to Bayern
- Hammers aren't even competitive right now and are particularly bad early in games. City were 2-0 up on them in 25' last game and in 26' in previous meeting, Newcastle 2-0 up in 33', Forest ahead in 16' .... hell even United were up 2-0 in 36' ... anyway, you get the picture. Chelsea have led at HT in 6 of their last 7 league games at home
5pm Intl Friendly USA vs So Korea
USA 1H -0.25 1.5u to win 1.68u
- Going with a 1H bet as I expect big changes at HT and this starting lineup is excellent. You have the regular USMNT centerback pairing, Besler and Gonzo, plus the normal right back, Evans, and the guy I've been wanting at left back, Parkhurst...so pretty much a first team defense. In the middle Beckerman is one of their two regular holding MF and Zusi//Donovan are going to Brazil as well. I don't love having Wondo up front alone but if Donovan plays a bit more advanced he becomes a 2nd striker. So Korea rely pretty heavily on their European based players who aren't here. Could be a wide open 2nd half if USA make wholesale changes as their 2nd team defense is very shaky
XI: Rimando; Evans, Gonzalez, Besler, Parkhurst; Beckerman, Diskerud; Zusi, Donovan, Davis; Wondolowski:
USA 1H -0.25 1.5u to win 1.68u
- Going with a 1H bet as I expect big changes at HT and this starting lineup is excellent. You have the regular USMNT centerback pairing, Besler and Gonzo, plus the normal right back, Evans, and the guy I've been wanting at left back, Parkhurst...so pretty much a first team defense. In the middle Beckerman is one of their two regular holding MF and Zusi//Donovan are going to Brazil as well. I don't love having Wondo up front alone but if Donovan plays a bit more advanced he becomes a 2nd striker. So Korea rely pretty heavily on their European based players who aren't here. Could be a wide open 2nd half if USA make wholesale changes as their 2nd team defense is very shaky
Thu Holland 12:45pm
Utrecht vs Zwolle
- bet largely on having seen Utrecht go head to head against leaders Ajax on Sunday. They took a point but knocked one off the post in 2nd half then another great chance just wide which would have given them the lead. Utrecht can't be trusted away (4 points in 10 games) but at home are more than comfortable with 21 points in 11 games. Their only two losses were PSV and Feyenoord and they've won most of their games against teams outside the top 7 with a 5-2-0 record including 4 straight wins. Utrecht the bigger club with a team market value 2.5x that of Zwolle and with two of the league's top 7 goal scorers in DeRidder and Toornstra. Utrecht nasty stretch coming up with AZ, Twente, Groningen, and PSV b2b2b2b so gotta get these 3 points. Smaller bet as it's still a team that hasn't won a league match in 2 months.
Utrecht .77u to win 1u
Utrecht vs Zwolle
- bet largely on having seen Utrecht go head to head against leaders Ajax on Sunday. They took a point but knocked one off the post in 2nd half then another great chance just wide which would have given them the lead. Utrecht can't be trusted away (4 points in 10 games) but at home are more than comfortable with 21 points in 11 games. Their only two losses were PSV and Feyenoord and they've won most of their games against teams outside the top 7 with a 5-2-0 record including 4 straight wins. Utrecht the bigger club with a team market value 2.5x that of Zwolle and with two of the league's top 7 goal scorers in DeRidder and Toornstra. Utrecht nasty stretch coming up with AZ, Twente, Groningen, and PSV b2b2b2b so gotta get these 3 points. Smaller bet as it's still a team that hasn't won a league match in 2 months.
Utrecht .77u to win 1u
Sat England 10am
Crystal Palace pk 1.26u to win 1u
Norwich/City over 3 1.26u to win 1u
Palace have turned things completely around under The Track Suit and are a totally different team playing against relegation opponents like WBA. Against top-half teams they are 1-0-11 but against bottom half they're 6-1-5 overall and 5-1-2 at home. WBA are right now a terrible team and even worse away from home. Against bottom half on road only WBA and Hull have yet to win a game. WBA just one road win since April 2013 and they had a lot of problems with Pulis' Stoke team winning just once in 12 games, 1-3-8, and failing to score in 7 of them.
City and Norwich have played nothing but goal fests since the Canaries promoted. We're talking 5-1, 6-1, 4-3, 3-2, 7-0 so not one game with less than 5 in the net and both matches at Norwich ended with 7 goals. City just one road clean sheet in last 10 away and they're scoring a ton right now with 14 road goals in last 4. In their 7 matches vs bottom half away they're 15-11 goal differential, so just about 4 goals per game and Norwich just about the league's worst defense vs top half clubs as they've allowed 29 goals in those 12 games.
Crystal Palace pk 1.26u to win 1u
Norwich/City over 3 1.26u to win 1u
Palace have turned things completely around under The Track Suit and are a totally different team playing against relegation opponents like WBA. Against top-half teams they are 1-0-11 but against bottom half they're 6-1-5 overall and 5-1-2 at home. WBA are right now a terrible team and even worse away from home. Against bottom half on road only WBA and Hull have yet to win a game. WBA just one road win since April 2013 and they had a lot of problems with Pulis' Stoke team winning just once in 12 games, 1-3-8, and failing to score in 7 of them.
City and Norwich have played nothing but goal fests since the Canaries promoted. We're talking 5-1, 6-1, 4-3, 3-2, 7-0 so not one game with less than 5 in the net and both matches at Norwich ended with 7 goals. City just one road clean sheet in last 10 away and they're scoring a ton right now with 14 road goals in last 4. In their 7 matches vs bottom half away they're 15-11 goal differential, so just about 4 goals per game and Norwich just about the league's worst defense vs top half clubs as they've allowed 29 goals in those 12 games.
