Sigh..... I really dont undertsand what there is not to get here. It is so simple. Every role of the dice is an independent event. The past outcomes have no impact on the odds of any single roll. It is so simple and the fact that an experienced player cannot get it is just hard for me to understand. I am a bit surprised at how many people believe in fairy-dust and magic over probability here.
I know a lot of smart people who can't grasp this simple concept.
Only way someone can believe in a table being hot or cold is if they believe in magic.
Yes tables do get hot and cold but it's completely random and the events that took place before the next hand have has no effect.
Only way someone can believe in a table being hot or cold is if they believe in magic.
Yes tables do get hot and cold but it's completely random and the events that took place before the next hand have has no effect.
Lot of people here who don't understand math. Forget them.
My question is legit, if you were able to practice on casino tables with casino dice for as long as you wanted would it be possible to consistently (or just better than average) roll specific numbers? I know the foam baffling at the end seems like it would make it impossible, but everything is possible.
My question is legit, if you were able to practice on casino tables with casino dice for as long as you wanted would it be possible to consistently (or just better than average) roll specific numbers? I know the foam baffling at the end seems like it would make it impossible, but everything is possible.
This has been a fun thread... Is like saying that in instance in holdem... is more likely you will get AA after you got KK or QQ because your seat is "hot". I'm baffled that people argue math.
Cold and hot streaks exist, no doubt, but there is no way to predict when are they coming or for how long, I have seen streaks that last 3 hands or throws... I have seen ones that last 6, 8, 10... get the drill?
Just because the previous event was in your favor doesn't mean the next one will as the two events are 100% unrelated mathematically. In your mind, they are related, and that my friend, is superstition.
Cold and hot streaks exist, no doubt, but there is no way to predict when are they coming or for how long, I have seen streaks that last 3 hands or throws... I have seen ones that last 6, 8, 10... get the drill?
Just because the previous event was in your favor doesn't mean the next one will as the two events are 100% unrelated mathematically. In your mind, they are related, and that my friend, is superstition.
correct ... this is why they put the pyramid rubber wall backing on, Yes it's made of Rubber.
You can get away with not hitting the wall, once... maybe twice. ( not back to back rolls ) But the "Boys" will say something. and they won't be happy.
Even banking off the mirror they get pissed, so you need to change your roll every once in a while.
Some Casinos not care, others do.
Not hitting the wall is the Only way ( other than Sliding ) * which is not allowed, to have an edge Controlling the dice.
Im smart enough to realize I'm dumb
"Regression towards the mean" (RTTM) doesn't deal with individual trials (spins/rolls in our case). It deals with samples of data from a larger population. For example, if one were to see 10 reds spins in a row in roulette, RTTM would say that it is less likely that you're going to get another run of 10 reds in a row or more, and it's not because the roulette wheel has a memory, it's because you've just seen an unlikely event, and probability says that chances are the next string of trials is going to be closer to the mean. RTTM in no way mitigates against or is contrary to the "Gambler's Fallacy" which says that past events have no bearing on independent trials. RTTM doesn't say that if you see 10 reds in a row, that the next one is more likely to be black, it says if you see 10 reds in a row, you're not likely see a larger streak of reds over the next 10+ spins.
Another way to look at it is, say you have a batter who is a lifetime .300 hitter (say Wade Boggs) over 15+ years. One year he hits .218. RTTM says that chances are the next year he's going to hit better than .218. Not because of the previous years results, but because he is a .300 hitter.
Hope that helps.
we used to like to play at the four queens, it is a real low roller place and the tables were not crowed and had real soft landing areas. one nite we were beating them bad and of course it got crowded and the pit was sweating it big time. the pit boss was sweating and screaming at me constantly, but they didnt kick me out or cut me off.
next trip we go there and get killed every time we play. Finally i examined the tables and they had cut ridges into the landing areas of all the tables, and covered it up with the felt so it wasnt obvious. this made the dice fly all over the place, weather you hit the back wall or not. Shows how much they worry about controlling the dice [Losing]. usually wait till the pit isnt looking and there is a lot of money out there to slide the dice.
next trip we go there and get killed every time we play. Finally i examined the tables and they had cut ridges into the landing areas of all the tables, and covered it up with the felt so it wasnt obvious. this made the dice fly all over the place, weather you hit the back wall or not. Shows how much they worry about controlling the dice [Losing]. usually wait till the pit isnt looking and there is a lot of money out there to slide the dice.
