Is it possible to beat casino Craps consistently?

[Akillies]

the difference is long term, almost no players are going to fall into the long term category, where the stats you are quoting are going to apply. of course you are not going to beat the odds long term with out altering the edge the casino has, but only the casino is in it for the long term. If you have spent any time at all at a table, you are aware of and susceptible to the streakyness of the short term.

He clearlyy understands the odds, and from experience how to beat them.

 

[PatsFan1283]

the difference is long term, almost no players are going to fall into the long term category, where the stats you are quoting are going to apply. of course you are not going to beat the odds long term with out altering the edge the casino has, but only the casino is in it for the long term. If you have spent any time at all at a table, you are aware of and susceptible to the streakyness of the short term.

He clearlyy understands the odds, and from experience how to beat them.

nooooo

 

[GoBlue34]

have a guy that buys in for 20k every morning. negative progression on the don'ts, seems to make 300-500 a day....

I have no data to back this up but every time I see a guy betting the don't pass for an extended period time (while playing the odds) they have a huge stack of chips.

Quoting math facts is laughable to me.

I say this will all due respect and not trying to argue but if you think you can beat BJ or craps by hitting hot streaks you are not a math "genius." I hope you continue to win however

 

[festeringZit]

the difference is long term, almost no players are going to fall into the long term category, where the stats you are quoting are going to apply. of course you are not going to beat the odds long term with out altering the edge the casino has, but only the casino is in it for the long term. If you have spent any time at all at a table, you are aware of and susceptible to the streakyness of the short term.

He clearlyy understands the odds, and from experience how to beat them.

Sigh.

 

[Akillies]

i am guessing you still dont understand.

example, bet pass line for one million rolls. what will the result be?

bet the pass line for one hundred rolls, what will the result be?

 

[PatsFan1283]

i am guessing you still dont understand.

example, bet pass line for one million rolls. what will the result be?

bet the pass line for one hundred rolls, what will the result be?

-1% ROI expected EV

There is no way to play the game that isn't -1% ROI for your expected value.

 

[Akillies]

here is a hint, the answer is not the same for both cases
if you dont understand this concept you should

 

[PatsFan1283]

here is a hint, the answer is not the same for both cases
if you dont understand this concept you should

What do you think is different about it?

If I only seekout cold tables and you only seekout hot tables, do you think your bet equity is better than mine?

 

[CHOPTALK]

I'm always amazed at people's ability to argue against math.

 

[festeringZit]

i am guessing you still dont understand.

example, bet pass line for one million rolls. what will the result be?

bet the pass line for one hundred rolls, what will the result be?

Believe me, I understand.

The point is, every single time you place a bet at craps, you face the house edge ~1%. It doesn't matter if you do it once or a million times. And, there is no way, by charting, or by trying to follow some hot/cold "streak" that you're going to escape that ~1% edge, it's a mathematical certainty - and it's what keeps the lights on in Vegas. And, the more you bet, the more you lose in EV, the less you bet, the less you lose in EV.

http://wizardofodds.com/gambling/betting-systems/

"Not only do bettings systems fail to beat casino games with a house advantage, they can’t even dent it. Roulette balls and dice simply have no memory. Every spin in roulette and every toss in craps is independent of all past events. In the short run you can fool yourself into thinking a betting system works, by risking a lot to win a little. However, in the long run no betting system can withstand the test of time. The longer you play, the ratio of money lost to money bet will get closer to the expectation for that game."

 

[packer2012]

the difference is long term, almost no players are going to fall into the long term category, where the stats you are quoting are going to apply. of course you are not going to beat the odds long term with out altering the edge the casino has, but only the casino is in it for the long term. If you have spent any time at all at a table, you are aware of and susceptible to the streakyness of the short term.

He clearly understands the odds, and from experience how to beat them.

As I have said, I am not craps player. I am out after this. Don't need a math lesson and know very well how this works. Real world, real money, big.money.
Not in a textbook, but at the table.

Akillies, you understand are speak the truth. Not just the math based on multiple lifetimes of play. If you don't pass you chips along thrust gerations and never leave the table.... don't think anyone does.... you are subject to short term streaks.

How you recognize and manage your bank, good or bad, will determine your outcome. That and especially if you have the good sence to leave sessions a:
winner.

Again, congrats Akillies.... guess I didn't explain well enough for some.... but you picked up.

 

[packer2012]

Sorry Pats and others... The negative EV talk is simply misleading as applied to every bet.... unless you speaking of multiple lifetimes of consecutive bets.

 

[PatsFan1283]

So you think some bets at the craps table are +EV?

If I ignore streaks and just play cold tables and you ride streaks and just play hot tables, you will do better than me?

 

[packer2012]

Just said I am not a craps guy. I know the math and I agree with you. Akillies and I are referring to shorter term real life, real money play. Not theory.

 

[festeringZit]

Sorry Pats and others... The negative EV talk is simply misleading as applied to every bet.... unless you speaking of multiple lifetimes of consecutive bets.

Sorry, but you are 100% wrong.

Every single bet is -EV, every single solitary one.

 

[5teamparlay]

So you think some bets at the craps table are +EV?

If I ignore streaks and just play cold tables and you ride streaks and just play hot tables, you will do better than me?

YES -- There are players who take no action on a no 6 or 8 dont come---
had a buddy who would buy 500 bets off them and play 480 6 or 8 (WIN 20 or win 60)

 

[festeringZit]

I was a math minor, and have taken graduate level math and statistics courses, you should take my word for it. But, Michael Shackelford (the Wiz of Odds) is the leading expert out there (at least the most widely known) on game theory. I'll repeat his quote, and maybe it will sink in. He also teaches gaming theory at UNLV...

"Roulette balls and dice simply have no memory. Every spin in roulette and every toss in craps is independent of all past events."

 

[PatsFan1283]

YES -- There are players who take no action on a no 6 or 8 dont come---
had a buddy who would buy 500 bets off them and play 480 6 or 8 (WIN 20 or win 60)

That is obviously way different and has nothing to do with the rules of the actual game.

I am talking about two people playing independently of one another at different tables.

 

[5teamparlay]

I still think you could control a throw once every 10 times or so, sliding a 6 would make the field a ++ bet win on 9,10,11,12 -- 4 winners--2 loses

and c0ming out it would make the pass line ++ (7W ,8 45.4%,9 40% ,10 33%,11 W,12 L) ==== 53%

 

[PatsFan1283]

I still think you could control a throw once every 10 times or so, sliding a 6 would make the field a ++ bet win on 9,10,11,12 -- 4 winners--2 loses

and c0ming out it would make the pass line ++ (7W ,8 45.4%,9 40% ,10 33%,11 W,12 L) ==== 53%

Have you ever seen anyone being kicked out of a casino for dice control? The technique is fairly obvious to spot as well....