Is it possible to beat casino Craps consistently?

[PatsFan1283]

OK Boys.... Let’s not call it hot or cold. Let’s just agree on something....

Please don't insist that short term "streaks" do not happy often on table games. If you don’t recognize this to be true.... you label yourself a child who has not spend any serious time paying attention to table games. Ask any of the guys who have had experience as dealers. They will tell you... and they will tell you how bucking these short term streaks costs dumb-asses an awful lot of money!

Noooo packer! The "streaks" are just variance. While it may not "feel" like this at the table, over a large sample you are going to get many extended runs where a table is profitable and not profitable for the craps player. There is absolutely 0 way to know when this is going to happen because it is all random and every result is independent of the previous result. Over this time the casino has a 1-2% edge that adds up (Don't remember the house edge on craps off my head, I'd assume 1.5%ish)

If I play 100 per game and only sit at tables where I am bucking streaks, I will lose on average 1%

If you play 100 per game and only sit at tables where you are playing/riding streaks, you will lose 1% on average


A big reason a lot of people confuse these principles is because for games like BJ, craps, roulette the house edge is very small that over a short period of time it is very easy for a player to win.

 

[Cyyyyk]

They will tell you... and they will tell you how bucking these short term streaks costs dumb-asses an awful lot of money!

I give up. All I can say is that it takes a lot of nerve to be this stupid and still going around calling people "a child" and a "dumbass". This is not some political flame war thread where whomever crafts the the best insult wins. This is matter of people who understand basic concepts of probability that are fundamental to gambling and other people who do not.

Basic math is not a debatable issue. This is not one of those times where there are good arguments on both sides of the issue. It has been explained to you numerous times by many people. There is nothing more anyone can do to help you here. Keep taking advice from dealers in the casino my friend.

 

[PatsFan1283]

I give up. All I can say is that it takes a lot of nerve to be this stupid and still going around calling people "a child" and a "dumbass". This is not some political flame war thread where whomever crafts the the best insult wins. This is matter of people who understand basic concepts of probability that are fundamental to gambling and other people who do not.

Basic math is not a debatable issue. This is not one of those times where there are good arguments on both sides of the issue. It has been explained to you numerous times by many people. There is nothing more anyone can do to help you here. Keep taking advice from dealers in the casino my friend.

Dealers can be the worst sometimes. One time I was playing blackjack and a few people at the table didn't know how to play so I was just pointing out basic strategy to them. They lost a few times and didn't mind, they seemed to get the concept there is a right/wrong way to play every hand. Then the dealer is like "Its your hand, just play how you want to play" Like blackjack comes down to a hunch or some fucking BS. I don't know how I didn't curse him out on the spot....

 

[MattyMatt]

This is matter of people who understand basic concepts of probability that are fundamental to gambling and other people who do not.

Sad part is that it is basic math like you stated. Most here claim to of graduated College. I'm wondering how they made it through their Freshman year and Stats 101. Easy as pie.

 

[Cyyyyk]

Dealers can be the worst sometimes. One time I was playing blackjack and a few people at the table didn't know how to play so I was just pointing out basic strategy to them. They lost a few times and didn't mind, they seemed to get the concept there is a right/wrong way to play every hand. Then the dealer is like "Its your hand, just play how you want to play" Like blackjack comes down to a hunch or some fucking BS. I don't know how I didn't curse him out on the spot....

Yea my brother is a degenerate gambler and he firmly believes that the key to winning in blackjack is knowing when to go against basic strategy based on on how "hot" the table is....... he also believes in riding the hot shooter in craps. Needless to say he has a lot of financial problems. In general I would say anyone who relies on gambling advice from dealers probably is going to have some trouble.

 

[Cyyyyk]

Sad part is that it is basic math like you stated. Most here claim to of graduated College. I'm wondering how they made it through their Freshman year and Stats 101. Easy as pie.

Yea that is the main reason I am surprised. What we are talking about here is gambling 101. It is not some advanced concept. I would have thought anyone who was not a total newbie understood this kind of stuff. I mean the basic statistical elements of gambling are discussed all the time on these forums...... how is it even possible that someone could not know this basic stuff?

 

[cy1981]

craps is about the only game I play at casinos, and no you cannot beat it consistently

it is about being around when "that roll" happens, and then taking advantage of it

I also look for that number that's hitting hot (if any). Sometimes it seems as if everyone throws something like a nine, then I put my entire wager on a nine. Other times, everybody seems to make 1 point, so I play large on the first point. Another day it may be hardways, or come bets that are hitting. Other days nothing works. If something is trending, that's what I'll play large. It works for me.

Maybe 7 out of 10 sessions is a loser, maybe 4 out of 5 are losers, but winning large at the winning sessions is what carries the day (or week or month or year)

So no, you can't win consistently, but you can win.

I agree with Willie. I've played a lot of craps and you just hope you catch a heater once out of every 2 or 3 times and progressively increase your bets so you can have a big win to cover up smaller losses. That's my idea anyway. It's quite a rush to get on a long roll. Only thing I've done different over the years is set my dice the same every time when I roll. I don't know if it helps but I do it anyway.

 

[MattyMatt]

anyone who relies on gambling advice from dealers probably is going to have some trouble.

Don't forget to tip them well.

 

[SECplayer]

OK Boys.... Let’s not call it hot or cold. Let’s just agree on something....

Please don't insist that short term "streaks" do not happy often on table games. If you don’t recognize this to be true.... you label yourself a child who has not spend any serious time paying attention to table games. Ask any of the guys who have had experience as dealers. They will tell you... and they will tell you how bucking these short term streaks costs dumb-asses an awful lot of money!

Again, it all boils down to one roll of the dice. The outcome of that one individual roll of the dice is paid out in a manner that gives the casino the house edge (however slight that edge may be).

stating that it can be beat consistently by simply riding hot streaks and avoiding cold streaks isn't realistic.

id explain further but several posters in this thread have already explained it very well.

 

[packer2012]

I give up. All I can say is that it takes a lot of nerve to be this stupid and still going around calling people "a child" and a "dumbass". This is not some political flame war thread where whomever crafts the the best insult wins. This is matter of people who understand basic concepts of probability that are fundamental to gambling and other people who do not.

Basic math is not a debatable issue. This is not one of those times where there are good arguments on both sides of the issue. It has been explained to you numerous times by many people. There is nothing more anyone can do to help you here. Keep taking advice from dealers in the casino my friend.

This has turned into quite a long and spirited thread. Glad to have been a part of it.

Cyyyk, don't believe I ever said anything about taking advice from dealers. What I said was that dealers (read: guys who stand hour upon hour at gambling tables and see most everything over time) would verify that short term streaks do happen and have bad effects on most bankrolls.

Quoting math facts is laughable to me. I am near a genius when it comes to math/probability.... but I also am well aware that these non-negotiable truths have little to do with short-term outcomes (FACT). The "long run" is based on multimillions of bets calculated on computers. We don't sit there as real people and play enough hands to experience the "long run". Is that understood? I am talking about real money and how it plays out in the short term (which is the timeframe that we experience in the casino).
Not to single anyone out…. But there are posters on this board who can quote us all sorts of mathematical facts and historical facts…. But have never placed a real money sports bet bigger than ten grocery dollars.
Similarly, there may be pure math wizards who can quote the theory of table games from books and calculations…. But have never played a table game for serious money…. Or know how the real world mixes in and comes in contact with the pure math.
Also, please allow me to add….. I am not nor have I ever been a craps player. I have however played more big money BJ (and won) than many on here combined (I feel sure).
Hard headed people betting into a hot shoe /dealer has cost knowledgeable BJ players tons of money. Not because they don’t understand the math…… because their human nature is causing them to exercise poor judgment. Does not change the math… but totally controls the outcome in the “short term”.

 

[festeringZit]

This has turned into quite a long and spirited thread. Glad to have been a part of it.

Cyyyk, don't believe I ever said anything about taking advice from dealers. What I said was that dealers (read: guys who stand hour upon hour at gambling tables and see most everything over time) would verify that short term streaks do happen and have bad effects on most bankrolls.

Quoting math facts is laughable to me. I am near a genius when it comes to math/probability.... but I also am well aware that these non-negotiable truths have little to do with short-term outcomes (FACT). The "long run" is based on multimillions of bets calculated on computers. We don't sit there as real people and play enough hands to experience the "long run". Is that understood? I am talking about real money and how it plays out in the short term (which is the timeframe that we experience in the casino).
Not to single anyone out…. But there are posters on this board who can quote us all sorts of mathematical facts and historical facts…. But have never placed a real money sports bet bigger than ten grocery dollars.
Similarly, there may be pure math wizards who can quote the theory of table games from books and calculations…. But have never played a table game for serious money…. Or know how the real world mixes in and comes in contact with the pure math.
Also, please allow me to add….. I am not nor have I ever been a craps player. I have however played more big money BJ (and won) than many on here combined (I feel sure).
Hard headed people betting into a hot shoe /dealer has cost knowledgeable BJ players tons of money. Not because they don’t understand the math…… because their human nature is causing them to exercise poor judgment. Does not change the math… but totally controls the outcome in the “short term”.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but I *think* this is what you are getting at.

"Hard headed people betting into a hot shoe /dealer has cost knowledgeable BJ players tons of money. Not because they don’t understand the math…… because their human nature is causing them to exercise poor judgment."

You saying that trying to bet into the streaks costs people more money, because they bet more than they usually would thinking that the "hot" streak is going to continue - and they end up losing more EV, because they are betting more? If that is what you are saying, then I agree with you.

 

[PatsFan1283]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but I *think* this is what you are getting at.

"Hard headed people betting into a hot shoe /dealer has cost knowledgeable BJ players tons of money. Not because they don’t understand the math…… because their human nature is causing them to exercise poor judgment."

You saying that trying to bet into the streaks costs people more money, because they bet more than they usually would thinking that the "hot" streak is going to continue - and they end up losing more EV, because they are betting more? If that is what you are saying, then I agree with you.

No he is saying people go broke quicker by bucking a streak. I.e fading it or not acknowledging its existance when it is happening....He says this a few posts up.

 

[Cyyyyk]

Hard headed people betting into a hot shoe /dealer has cost knowledgeable BJ players tons of money. Not because they don’t understand the math…… because their human nature is causing them to exercise poor judgment. Does not change the math… but totally controls the outcome in the “short term”.

Wow..... I am seriously stunned by your posts. I have nothing left to say. I am comforted by the fact that so many people here see how absurd what you are saying is...... but I honestly have no idea how you can still be this clueless.

 

[Cyyyyk]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but I *think* this is what you are getting at.

"Hard headed people betting into a hot shoe /dealer has cost knowledgeable BJ players tons of money. Not because they don’t understand the math…… because their human nature is causing them to exercise poor judgment."

You saying that trying to bet into the streaks costs people more money, because they bet more than they usually would thinking that the "hot" streak is going to continue - and they end up losing more EV, because they are betting more? If that is what you are saying, then I agree with you.

No he is saying the exact opposite. I know it is hard to believe.

 

[festeringZit]

No he is saying people go broke quicker by bucking a streak. I.e fading it or not acknowledging its existance when it is happening....He says this a few posts up.

He says this in post #30:

2) While a player cannot predictably win by following streaks.... they will lose much quicker by being stupid and upping their bets into a hot table.

 

[festeringZit]

"Hard headed people betting into a hot shoe /dealer has cost knowledgeable BJ players tons of money."

Seems like he's talking about irrationally trying to press bets into a so-called "hot" table.

 

[PatsFan1283]

Hey Zit....

Please understand I'm not saying you can always win following any sort of streak. What you say about "streaks being very temporary” is quite true.

What I am saying is... while a player cannot predict streaks.... they do most certainly exist.... and people go broke quicker by being too ignorant and bucking the streak. Here is a balls-on accurate observation.....

The casino advantage does not hurt people as bad as does human nature and bull-headed ignorance.

Nah see because in this post he uses the term bucking. In the other posts when he says betting into, he means bucking. As in not acknowledging the streak...

 

[festeringZit]

Nah see because in this post he uses the term bucking. In the other posts when he says betting into, he means bucking. As in not acknowledging the streak...

This seems pretty clear:

they will lose much quicker by being stupid and upping their bets into a hot table.

 

[PatsFan1283]

Yeah no clue then. That is 2 totally different things.

In the other posts though he says that streaks do happen and you should be aware of them, people not being aware of streaks or how hot/cold a table is has cost them money.

 

[PatsFan1283]

OK Boys.... Let’s not call it hot or cold. Let’s just agree on something....

Please don't insist that short term "streaks" do not happy often on table games. If you don’t recognize this to be true.... you label yourself a child who has not spend any serious time paying attention to table games. Ask any of the guys who have had experience as dealers. They will tell you... and they will tell you how bucking these short term streaks costs dumb-asses an awful lot of money!

Like right here he says bucking the streak will cost you money. I took bucking to mean ignoring it, bucking the trend...

Other than that I'm lost, lol