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Tim Cook of Apple, left, testified on Friday at an antitrust trial in Oakland, Calif.Vicki Behringer/Reuters


[h=2]Monopoly matters[/h]

For the past three weeks, Apple has been defending itself in federal court against claims brought by Epic Games, the maker of the blockbuster video game Fortnite, that Apple abuses its power by charging app makers unfairly high commissions to appear in its App Store. Judge Yvonne Gonzalez Rogers said she hoped to deliver a verdict in mid-August.

The crux of the case is about market definition. Since Epic’s games are played on many non-Apple devices, its complaint about Apple as a monopolist is not clear-cut; a company that relies exclusively on Apple for distribution may have a stronger claim.

To that end, this case could be seen as a dress rehearsal for future antitrust cases, even if the judge rules in Apple’s favor. And if the judge finds for Epic, it would probably not force immediate changes to the $100 billion market for iPhone apps, since any ruling is set to be tied up in appeals for years. Regardless, the evidence revealed in the past few weeks is likely to feature in court battles to come.


[h=3]PAID POST: A MESSAGE FROM EXXONMOBIL[/h]An Idea to Help Decarbonize Heavy Industrial Areas
ExxonMobil’s idea to capture and store roughly 100 million metric tons of CO2 annually by 2040 would more than double the world’s current carbon capture and storage capacity. That’s equal to taking 20 million cars off the road. It has the potential to effectively decarbonize the entire industrial area around the Houston Ship Channel and help the city of Houston meet its net-zero ambitions by 2050.
LEARN MORE AT ENERGYFACTOR.COM

After the trial wrapped up yesterday, DealBook spoke with Kellen Browning, a technology reporter for The Times, about the companies’ arguments, what the judge said and how a sometimes-naked banana became a topic of debate in the California courtroom. Here is an edited version of the discussion.

Epic has argued that the case is about iPhone apps, while Apple has argued that it’s about gaming. Why is the distinction important?

If the case is about iPhone apps in general, then Epic can claim that Apple has a monopoly over distribution. But if the case is just about the distribution of gaming apps or games more narrowly, then Apple has been able to argue that there are many different places that people can get their games.

Why was there so much discussion of Apple’s security features and review process?

One of Apple’s arguments was that it has really good security and it thoroughly reviews its apps, and it wouldn’t be able to do that as effectively if Epic were allowed to essentially offer its own app store within Apple’s App Store (and bypass Apple’s commission). In response, Epic showed internal emails between Apple executives discussing times when Apple’s review failed to pick up problematic apps.


[h=3]ADVERTISEMENT[/h]

Essentially, Apple said, “You know, sometimes we make mistakes, but overall we’re pretty good.” And — have you heard about Peely?

The banana?

Yes. Apple responded to Epic’s saying, “Here’s some evidence that the content of your game store may be inappropriate, and we wouldn’t be able to police it.” In that line of argument, they brought up Peely, a character in Fortnite, which is a banana that sometimes wears a tuxedo, and sometimes doesn’t. And so there was this whole back-and-forth over whether it’s appropriate to show the “naked” banana in court. The judge was making Peely jokes for the rest of the trial.

Did the judge ask any searching questions?

The judge asked Tim Cook at one point whether the decision to reduce Apple’s commission for some smaller developers was because of this sort of scrutiny. He acknowledged that, to some extent, concerns about regulation or scrutiny were in the back of his mind. The judge also talked about how it seemed that Apple hadn’t felt any competitive pressure to lower its 30 percent commission fee, based on other game platforms lowering their fees, which has happened a few times.

Read The Times’s full story on the last day of the Epic vs. Apple trial.

[h=3]HERE’S WHAT’S HAPPENING[/h]

Airlines begin skirting Belarus after it forced down a plane. Carriers said they would avoid the country’s airspace after it compelled a Ryanair flight bound for Lithuania to land in Minsk, the Belarusian capital, to seize a dissident journalist. The detour is likely to be costly for airlines that fly between Europe and Asia.


[h=3]ADVERTISEMENT[/h]

New York City schools eliminate remote learning for the coming school year. All students and staff will be back in buildings full time come September, a milestone for America’s largest school system and a crucial step in reopening the city’s economy — especially for working parents.

Companies are favoring carrots over sticks to get workers vaccinated.Businesses are increasingly turning to cash stipends for inoculated employees, though some lawyers worry about the legality of such bonuses. United Airlines has created a sweepstakes for travelers who share their vaccination status, with the chance to win free flights.

Senator Elizabeth Warren proposes tripling the I.R.S.’s annual budget. The Massachusetts Democrat unveiled legislation to increase the agency’s funding to $31.5 billion to support President Biden’s plan to help it pursue tax evasion by corporations and the wealthy.

Florida will fine social networks that bar political candidates. The new lawis a direct challenge to the suspension of Donald Trump by Facebook and Twitter, and also prevents those platforms from banning some news outlets from posting their content. It’s likely to be challenged on constitutional grounds.


[h=3]ADVERTISEMENT[/h]


[h=2]What’s in Ray Dalio’s wallet?[/h]

After a harrowing few days for cryptocurrency investors, many will have taken comfort yesterday when Ray Dalio, the billionaire hedge fund manager, said, “I have some Bitcoin.” The statement generated headlines and attention because Dalio had dwelled on Bitcoin’s limitations last year: “I might be missing something about Bitcoin so I’d love to be corrected,” he said in November.

Timing is everything. It’s worth noting that Dalio’s remarks were streamed to attendees of CoinDesk’s Consensus conference yesterday, but had been recorded on May 6. Bitcoin has lost about a third of its value since then.

Crypto gets more attractive as the dollar loses its allure, Dalio said. The U.S. dollar may one day lose its position as the global reserve currency, he said, but that wouldn’t necessarily be good for crypto. If governments sense that people would rather “have Bitcoin than a bond,” a crackdown will follow, he suggested.

A digital dollar from Uncle Sam could be coming, the Fed governor Lael Brainard said at the conference. “We must explore — and try to anticipate — the extent to which households’ and businesses’ needs and preferences may migrate further to digital payments,” she said. Brainard argued that a central bank digital currency would be safer and more stable than “a predominance of private moneys.”

In other crypto news, the Bank of England’s governor, Andrew Bailey, called cryptocurrencies “dangerous,” a group of Bitcoin miners (and Elon Musk) met to discuss the industry’s climate impact, and the volume of chatter about crypto on Reddit now surpasses discussions about meme stocks.


[h=2]“A SPAC is more like a Vegas wedding. It just doesn’t have the same level of preparation and vetting like a traditional I.P.O. But here is the point: It is still a legal wedding.”[/h]

— Usha Rodrigues, a law professor at the University of Georgia, at a House hearing on the blank-check boom.


[h=2]Onward and upward for vertical farming[/h]

Bowery Farming, a high-tech vertical farming company that grows greens indoors, has raised $300 million in funding at a valuation of $2.3 billion, it will announce today. The round was led by Fidelity.

Not your typical farmer. Irving Fain, Bowery’s founder and C.E.O., began his career in investment banking, directed digital marketing at iHeartMedia and founded CrowdTwist, a brand analytics software company. He started the “smart” farm company, which uses technology to control and monitor growth, in 2014. The company’s farms are built near cities and employ workers with no agricultural experience to work tech-enabled greenhouses.


  • “When you look at climate change, population growth, and urbanization, it’s clear that our agricultural system needs to change,” Fain told DealBook. Small-scale vertical farms in urban areas can’t feed everyone, but they are “simpler, safer, more reliable and more sustainable,” he said.

Stars are betting on it. Bowery’s latest funding round boasts celebrity investors like the actress Natalie Portman, the chef José Andrés and the singer-songwriter and actor Justin Timberlake. Its greens and herbs are sold in more than 850 stores, and it has recorded sales growth of some 750 percent since the start of 2020.


[h=2]E.S.G. risks grow, but myths persist[/h]

When it comes to scrutiny of companies’ environmental, social and governance policies, or E.S.G., “there’s so much activity going on,” Jennifer Semko, a partner at the law firm Baker McKenzie in Washington, told DealBook. She cited increased attention on E.S.G. issues from employees, consumers, shareholders, stakeholders and governments around the world. “Companies need to be better prepared,” she said.

E.S.G. matters are a growing litigation risk. In a recent Baker McKenzie survey of litigation risks at multinational companies, only the energy and mining sectors were highly attuned to the issues, Semko said. It’s “a little surprising,” she said, given that companies in every sector are facing questions about the environment and much more — everything from ethical sourcing to social justice.

Insurers are also looking at E.S.G. as a risk factor, said Paul Schiavone of Allianz. In a new report, his company named E.S.G. as one of the major risk trends to financial service firms, and Schiavone says he believes that as these issues get more attention, good corporate citizens will be rewarded for “friendliness” of all kinds. Companies that pay attention to E.S.G. concerns may face fewer regulatory investigations, lawsuits and other disruptions — all matters of interest to insurers.

Investor interest alone isn’t enough to prompt companies to open up about E.S.G., said Allison Herren Lee, an S.E.C. commissioner. Speaking to an accounting trade group yesterday, she dismissed what she called the “most prevalent myth” about E.S.G. reporting issues. Securities laws require that companies disclose material information to investors, but it is “simply not true” that companies reveal much about E.S.G. unless it is specifically mandated, she said.


Thank you for your support. Want to share The New York Times? Friends and family can enjoy unlimited digital access to our journalism with this special offer.

[h=3]THE SPEED READ[/h]

Deals


  • Authentic Brands, the owner of Brooks Brothers and Forever 21, is reportedly weighing going public this year. (Bloomberg)
  • The N.B.A. raised money for its new Africa unit, including from former players and the investment firm Helios Fairfax Partners, at a $1 billion valuation. (CNBC)
  • “How Regulators Killed Hedge Funds” (Institutional Investor)

Politics and policy


  • The Biden administration is making it easier for federal employees to work remotely. (WaPo)
  • The next big international trade fight may be between the E.U. and Switzerland. (Bloomberg)

Tech


  • The Gates Foundation sold all its shares of Apple and Twitter shortly before Bill Gates and Melinda French Gates announced their divorce. (Insider)
  • Silicon Valley is realizing that its dream of self-driving cars will take longer, and be harder, than it previously expected. (NYT)

Best of the rest


  • Deutsche Bank has implicitly set itself a goal of hiring women for half of its senior executive positions. (FT)
  • An in-depth look at the gruesome murder a tech entrepreneur — and the assistant accused of killing him. (Insider)
  • A pandemic surge in pet adoptions has led to a boom in real estate for vet clinics. (NYT)


Thanks for reading! We’ll see you tomorrow.

We’d like your feedback! Please email thoughts and suggestions to dealbook@nytimes.com.


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Andrew Ross Sorkin, Founder/Editor-at-Large, New York @andrewrsorkin
Jason Karaian, Editor, London @jkaraian
Sarah Kessler, Deputy Editor, Chicago @sarahfkessler
Michael J. de la Merced, Reporter, London @m_delamerced
Lauren Hirsch, Reporter, New York @LaurenSHirsch
Ephrat Livni, Reporter, Washington D.C. @el72champs

 

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Interesting story from the WaPo about the Biden admin making 'remote work' permanent. I'm in the process of trying to get permission to 'remote work' (which is different from telework, which means you still live in the area where you are assigned, and occasionally come into the office). My boss has been very positive about it and has been advocating for me, it needs buy off from the big boss. We're hoping to get the green light by mid-June.
 

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Interesting story from the WaPo about the Biden admin making 'remote work' permanent. I'm in the process of trying to get permission to 'remote work' (which is different from telework, which means you still live in the area where you are assigned, and occasionally come into the office). My boss has been very positive about it and has been advocating for me, it needs buy off from the big boss. We're hoping to get the green light by mid-June.

Nice.
Then you're a Floridian? you might see bubble burst in housing before you buy... not big huge but some relief or that's the way it looks from here....


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Top News
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Half of the adults in the United States, more than 129M people over the age of 18, are now fully vaccinated against the coronavirus, according to new data from the CDC. Nine states - Connecticut, Hawaii, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New Mexico, Maine, Massachusetts, Rhode Island and Vermont - have even inoculated 70% of their adult population with at least one dose. The milestones come nearly two weeks after the CDC relaxed social distancing and mask requirements for the fully vaccinated, paving the way for many states to ease additional restrictions.

By the numbers: Among people in the U.S. aged 65 and up (a demographic that faces far greater health risks), nearly 74% have been fully vaccinated. The entire nation also opened up jabs to anyone over 16 in the middle of April, and the FDA approved the Pfizer-BioNTech (PFE, BNTX) vaccine for anyone over 12 nearly two weeks ago. Nearly 5M of these adolescents have received at least one dose of the vaccine, according to the CDC.

Meanwhile, tensions continue to surface over tracing the origins of the coronavirus pandemic. Washington is calling for a fresh round of investigations to be conducted with independent and international experts, although Beijing considers the probe in its country to be fully complete. Earlier this year, a team of scientists summoned by the WHO spent a month in China, but the group was largely confined to reviewing Chinese state research and some of the members expressed frustration that they weren't given full access to data.

Quotes: "The purpose of the inquiry is not to assign blame, but to be grounded in science, to find the origin of the virus, and the outbreak, and to help us all prevent future global catastrophes from happening," noted Jeremy Konyndyk, executive director for Covid-19 at the U.S. Agency for International Development. While it's more likely the coronavirus jumped from an animal to humans, "we don't know 100% the answer to that," added Dr. Anthony Fauci on Tuesday, saying it was "imperative that we do an investigation." CDC Director Dr. Rochelle Walensky has also acknowledged a "possibility" that COVID-19 spread through an accidental lab leak. (38 comments)
Stocks
Markets struggled to find direction yesterday, with stocks jumping earlier in the session, but closing just below the flatline. "Low volatility, flat equities, declining U.S. Treasury yields, and low trading volumes - feels a lot like a Tuesday during a pre-holiday week," Goldman Sachs managing director Chris Hussey wrote in a research note. Futures ticked up 0.3% in overnight trade, while Bitcoin (BTC-USD) climbed back above $40,000 after a bout of volatility last week.

There are some pockets of the market that have been outperforming in recent sessions, including travel stocks like airlines and cruise companies, as well as homebuilder shares that keep moving higher. The reopening theme has led to market resilience, while the meme trade has resurfaced, with names like GameStop (GME) and AMC (AMC) posting big gains. Inflation fears appear to be ebbing at the moment as a chorus of Fed officials continue to reassure investors that any price rises will be transitory.

Taper talk: "We're talking about talking about tapering, and that is what you want out of us. You want to be long-viewed here," San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly told CNBC. "Right now, policy is in a very good place. Policy is supporting the American people." Fed Vice Chair Richard Clarida also suggested yesterday that the appropriate timing of scaling back should be discussed at upcoming policy meetings and he may shed more light on the matter this morning. The Fed is currently scooping up $120B in assets per month, but Morgan Stanley thinks the central will start tapering its level of bond buying toward the end of 2021.

On the calendar: Wall Street bank chiefs are in for a grilling today in front of the Senate Banking and House Financial Services committees. Jamie Dimon and Co. are set to highlight their role in the pandemic recovery, but will be challenged over a drop in lending over the past year - especially to disadvantaged communities - as well as the racial diversity of their workforces (see below). Some tech earnings are also scheduled for after the bell, including Nvidia (NVDA), Snowflake (SNOW), Okta (OKTA) and Workday (WDAY).
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Financials
Following bumper earnings on Wall Street in the first quarter, the heads of the six largest U.S. banks are set to testify before Congress today and tomorrow. The familiar faces: JPMorgan's (NYSE:JPM) Jamie Dimon, BofA's (NYSE:BAC) Brian Moynihan, Morgan Stanley's (NYSE:MS) James Gorman, Citigroup's (NYSE:C) Jane Fraser, Wells Fargo's (NYSE:WFC) Charles Scharf and Goldman Sachs' (NYSE:GS) David Solomon. Questions will target several hot-button social and economic issues, though the group is set to paint a favorable picture of an industry they say has allowed the economy to recover from COVID-19.

Zoom in: The biggest topic at the hearing will center around a decline in loan issuance over the past year to small businesses and consumers. Congressional reports may be cited showing lenders discriminated against some borrowers when distributing pandemic aid, though bankers feel the slowdown was largely attributable to a lack of demand. Expects some of the usual topics as well, including climate change, sustainable investing, diversity, racial justice, wealth inequality, cryptocurrencies and tax policies.

Democrats: "The pandemic exposed several frailties in the economy and financial system, including pervasive racial inequalities, unequal access to traditional banking products and services and unaddressed systemic risks threatening U.S. financial stability,” according to staff for Rep. Maxine Waters of California, who chairs the House Committee on Financial Services.

Republicans: "While the financial system has proven to be remarkably resilient, I worry that increasing political pressure could lead to distorting credit allocation, which would jeopardize our continued prosperity and undermine public policy making in America," said Pennsylvania Sen. Pat Toomey, the top GOP member on the Senate Banking Committee.
Automotive
Just a week after unveiling its F-150 Lightning to great fanfare, Ford (F) may have some other big announcements coming at today's investor day. Reuters suggests the company is developing two dedicated all-electric vehicle platforms - one for full-size trucks and larger SUVs, as well as another for cars and smaller SUVs. The dedicated systems could position Ford, whose shares are up 2% premarket, to compete better in the future with Tesla (TSLA), Volkswagen (OTCPK:VLKAF) and General Motors (GM).

Bigger picture: Ford's stock price has nearly doubled since CEO Jim Farley took the wheel on Oct. 1. That includes a 12.6% advance last week following the debut of the electric F-150 Lightning. One of the main targets investors also want to see is a long-promised 8% global adjusted profit margin target, including 10% in North America and 6% in Europe, which was promised by previous Ford CEOs, but never materialized.

Ford is projected to invest billions in the new EV platforms that could set it up for large-scale production of electric motors and components. Management is also likely to outline detailed plans for at least nine all-electric cars and SUVs, but will not electrify its entire range, instead choosing to focus on areas "where we are outstanding." Autonomous news? Ford already announced it would spend $7B on self-driving vehicles through 2025, includes investments in Argo AI, so expect some details.

Analyst commentary: "Since Jim Farley has taken over as CEO, Ford has promised increased transparency and measurable [key performance indicators] so we can track Ford’s progress and execution," RBC Capital Markets analyst Joseph Spak said in a research note. "We expect those, along with financial targets, to be detailed at the event." (75 comments)
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Energy
ExxonMobil (XOM) also holds its annual shareholder meeting today amid a proxy fight against a coalition of activist investors led by Engine No.1. The small hedge fund has proposed eight existing directors and four new green-tinged directors for the board, while ExxonMobil was pushing for its existing 12-director slate until two days ago. Its new plan calls for the appointment of two new directors, one with energy industry experience and one with climate experience, though Engine No.1 urged shareholders "not to let this last-minute tactic influence your vote."

Backdrop: Activists have accused Exxon of not doing enough in response to seismic shifts brought on by climate change. They're also hoping to promote a lower carbon strategy similar to the ones adopted by European oil majors like BP (BP), Royal Dutch Shell (RDS.A, RDS.B) and Total (TOT). The vote looks like it will come down to big fund owners BlackRock (BLK), Vanguard and State Street (STT) - which hold more than 20% of Exxon's stock combined - as well as the company's huge retail investor base, which accounts for nearly half of its outstanding shares.

Last week, proxy advisory firms Glass Lewis and ISS joined a growing list of pension funds and asset managers in supporting at least some of Engine No. 1's board nominees. In big news yesterday, Reuters reported that BlackRock voted for three of Engine No. 1's four candidates to join the company's board.

Analyst commentary: Exxon Mobil is still the "top major idea" among oil producers at Bank of America, which said the company is poised for a relative recovery after several years of lagging performance. The activist campaign "misunderstands the history, strategy, flexibility and outlook of the company," writes analyst Doug Leggate, as Exxon is "the only major to emerge with absolute growth, margin expansion and capacity for dividend growth intact from an organic portfolio," in contrast with some peers that failed on those fronts during the worst oil downturn in a generation. BofA rates shares at Buy, with a $90 price target. (97 comments)
What else is happening...
U.S. home prices surge by double-digit percentages.

ZipRecruiter (NYSE:ZIP) set to go public today via direct listing on NYSE.

WhatsApp (NASDAQ:FB) takes Indian government to court over new privacy rules.

Antitrust... D.C. attorney general sues Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) over price contracts.

In blow to U.S. miners, President Biden to look abroad for EV metals.

Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) ditching radar on some models, relying on cameras for Autopilot.

Elon Musk 'passionate believer' in decentralization - MicroStrategy.

Submission in June? Moderna (NASDAQ:MRNA) vaccine effective in children aged 12 to 17.

Speculation unraveling? Corn futures tumble 6% on larger supply.

Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) teases the 'next generation of Windows' is coming soon.​
TOGETHER WITH
Tuesday's Key Earnings
AutoZone (NYSE:AZO) -1.9% posting a gross margin rate drop.
Nordstrom (NYSE:JWN) -5.9% AH on a wider-than-anticipated Q1 loss.
Toll Brothers (NYSE:TOL) +0.6% AH expecting continued margin improvement.
Urban Outfitters (NASDAQ:URBN) +7.3% AH as comp retail sales grew 10%.
Today's Markets
In Asia, Japan +0.3%. Hong Kong +0.7%. China +0.3%. India +0.8%.
In Europe, at midday, London -0.2%. Paris +0.1%. Frankfurt -0.2%.
Futures at 6:20, Dow +0.3%. S&P +0.3%. Nasdaq +0.3%. Crude -0.2% to $65.92. Gold +0.6% at $1908.50. Bitcoin +5.1% to $40205.
Ten-year Treasury Yield flat at 1.56%
Today's Economic Calendar


 

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May 26, 2021
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merlin_183142272_91404155-60b4-4533-844e-6b3f4fa56573-articleLarge.jpg
The final shareholder meeting for Jeff Bezos as Amazon’s C.E.O. could be eventful.Michael Nelson/EPA, via Shutterstock


[h=2]Lots to talk about[/h]

Amazon’s investors are gathering virtually for the company’s annual shareholder meeting today. There is much to discuss: good, bad and ugly (from the perspective of Amazon’s management).

The e-commerce giant’s bumper profits are likely to be overshadowed by three major developments: Reports that the company is about to make an expensive bet on the Hollywood studio MGM; a series of shareholder proposals that company directors don’t want to pass; and an antitrust suit filed against the company which landed yesterday.

Bezos buys Bond? Amazon is said to be considering spending $9 billion to acquire MGM, which would buy classic films like “Rocky” and “Singin’ in the Rain,” as well as the James Bond franchise. If a deal is reached, approval from regulators would rest on Amazon’s argument that it’s a small player in entertainment. (Lina Khan, a nominee for the F.T.C. who is awaiting Senate confirmation, made her name with a paper about Amazon’s alleged antitrust abuses.)


  • The rights to the James Bond franchise are controlled by the Broccoli family, who can veto any 007 decision they disagree with. That could be a problem if Amazon wants to spin off lots of Bond products, but Peter Kafka in Recode says that Amazon’s production ambitions aren’t that expansive: “It just wants you to watch some video and spend some money,” he wrote.

Shareholders speak. The backers of several proposals, all opposed by Amazon’s management, say their aim is to make the company a better corporate citizen, reacting to accusations of labor and environmental abuses. New York State’s pension fund is calling on Amazon to conduct an independent racial equity audit of its practices related to civil rights, equity, diversity and inclusion. Another proposal would bar Jeff Bezos from chairing Amazon’s board after he steps down as C.E.O. this year.


[h=3]PAID POST: A MESSAGE FROM EXXONMOBIL[/h]An Idea to Help Decarbonize Heavy Industrial Areas
ExxonMobil’s idea to capture and store roughly 100 million metric tons of CO2 annually by 2040 would more than double the world’s current carbon capture and storage capacity. That’s equal to taking 20 million cars off the road. It has the potential to effectively decarbonize the entire industrial area around the Houston Ship Channel and help the city of Houston meet its net-zero ambitions by 2050.
LEARN MORE AT ENERGYFACTOR.COM


  • Calls for racial audits have been a feature at many shareholder meetingsrecently, falling short of majorities but attracting enough support — nearly 40 percent at both Citigroup and JPMorgan Chase — to put pressure on directors to act.

D.C. calling. The District of Columbia sued Amazon yesterday, alleging that the company effectively prohibited sellers on its site from charging lower prices for the same products elsewhere, which raised prices on Amazon and beyond. “Amazon has used its dominant position in the online retail market to win at all costs,” said Karl Racine, D.C.’s attorney general. It is believed to be the first antitrust suit against Amazon by an American government authority, but because it is based on local rather than federal law, its effect could be limited even if successful.


  • Racine’s argument “is both old-school and novel, and it might become a blueprint for crimping Big Tech power,” wrote Shira Ovide, The Times’s On Tech columnist.

[h=3]HERE’S WHAT’S HAPPENING[/h]

Tech companies clash with India’s government. The antiterrorism police visited Twitter’s offices in New Delhi, a sign that the authorities are unhappy with criticism on the platform about its pandemic response. Separately, WhatsApp sued the Indian government over new rules that would require it to make messages “traceable” to outside parties.

The U.S. passes a vaccination milestone. Half of American adults are now fully inoculated, according to C.D.C. data. But the agency warned unvaccinated people to remain cautious, particularly at social gatherings over the Memorial Day holiday weekend.

Brussels takes aim at Facebook. The E.U. is set to open a formal inquiry into the social media giant’s classified ad business, accusing it of anticompetitive practices, The Financial Times reports. Until now, Facebook was the only American tech giant not under an antitrust investigation by the bloc.


[h=3]ADVERTISEMENT[/h]

Criticism of the Tokyo Olympics grows. Public health officials wrote in The New England Journal of Medicine that the International Olympic Committee’s safety plans were seriously flawed. The Asahi Shimbun, a Japanese daily and an official partner of the Games, called for the event to be canceled in an editorial today.

A Morgan Stanley executive is set to win a top U.S. ambassadorial post.Tom Nides, a vice chairman at the Wall Street firm and a longtime Democratic donor, is reportedly President Biden’s pick to become U.S. ambassador to Israel, according to Bloomberg. Which other prominent Biden supporters will get plum diplomatic jobs?


[h=2]Exxon prepares for a showdown with activists[/h]

At Exxon Mobil’s annual meeting today, shareholders will vote on whether to back an effort by the climate-focused activist investor Engine No. 1 to win four seats on the oil giant’s board. So far, things aren’t looking good for Exxon, which has urged investors to reject the proposal.


[h=3]ADVERTISEMENT[/h]

BlackRock will vote for three of four dissident directors, according to Reuters and The Wall Street Journal. With a nearly 7 percent stake, the investment firm is one of Exxon’s biggest shareholders.


  • Other major investors, including the public pension fund Calpers, have publicly supported Engine No. 1’s campaign. And two influential shareholder advisory firms, I.S.S. and Glass Lewis, have recommended that investors back at least two of the hedge fund’s candidates.

Exxon made a last-ditch effort to change investors’ minds. On Monday, it promised to add two new directors, including a climate expert. That’s after adding two additional directors, including the environmentally minded financier Jeff Ubben, in March.

A defeat would be humbling. Analysts who follow Exxon said that they could not recall an election in which board candidates nominated by the company had lost. While a few new directors may not meaningfully change how the company is governed, a victory for Engine No. 1 would put more pressure on the company to address climate change. Exxon’s C.E.O., Darren Woods, has proposed investing more in carbon-capture technology, but has resisted the sort of bigger moves put forward by oil rivals.


[h=2]“People are calling it warehouse fatigue.”[/h]

— Dr. Christopher R. Amato, a member of the regional planning commission in the Lehigh Valley area in Pennsylvania. The region has seen explosive growth in e-commerce warehouses, a development that critics say alters towns and erases history.


[h=3]ADVERTISEMENT[/h]


[h=2]Bank chiefs have questions to answer[/h]

The chief executives of the six biggest American lenders will testify before the Senate Banking Committee today, the first time the committee has summoned all the top bankers since the financial crisis of 2008. (They will also appear at the House Committee on Financial Services on Thursday, for the first time since 2019.)

At the Senate hearing, Sherrod Brown, the committee’s chairman, has promised to press the bank chiefs on a range of subjects, sending them a list of questions on topics including the riskiness of their assets, the diversity of their work forces, actions on climate change, pledges on racial equity and more. It could make for a disjointed hearing as senators veer from issue to issue, trying to catch the C.E.O.s off guard or unprepared.

The bankers submitted their homework. Their prepared testimonies address the committee’s questions in varying depth and detail, while all make the case that their institutions are healthier, safer and more law-abiding since 2008.


  • Jamie Dimon of JPMorgan Chase turned in a nine-page paper urging business, government and society to address inequities and “unleash the extraordinary vibrancy of the American economy.”
  • Jane Fraser of Citigroup prepared 11 pages (and a three-page addendumwith data and tables) that note her bank’s approach to cryptocurrencies, saying that it is “focusing resources and efforts to understand changes in the digital asset space.”
  • James Gorman of Morgan Stanley assembled a 20-page report with few frills that includes a short introduction and responses to each question in order.
  • Charles Scharf of Wells Fargo and David Solomon of Goldman Sachseach submitted 15 pages heavy on environmental, social and governance issues.
  • Brian Moynihan of Bank of America had the most to say, with 32 pagesthat devote a lot of space to the bank’s “responsible growth” principles. “We embrace our dual responsibility to drive both profits and purpose,” he wrote.

Elsewhere on Capitol Hill, the S.E.C. chairman, Gary Gensler, will testify today before a House committee, where he is expected to address SPACs, cryptocurrency and other hot-button issues.


[h=2]A senator’s laser-eyed focus on new rules for crypto[/h]

The Republican senator Cynthia Lummis of Wyoming owns some Bitcoin and is one of Congress’s most vocal crypto champions. (For a time, her Twitter profile picture showed laser beams shooting from her eyes, a meme adopted by crypto bulls.) Yesterday, she started the bipartisan Financial Innovation Caucus to help create legislation for the blockchain era. DealBook asked her about this moment in crypto and what’s ahead for regulation. The interview has been edited and condensed for clarity.

What does the recent market volatility mean for regulation?

Many market excesses, including certain leverage and lending practices, are currently being flushed out. This puts digital asset markets on a more sustainable path, at precisely the moment regulators are deciding that these assets and financial innovation are here to stay. Right-sized regulation has the potential to bring more certainty and consumer protection to digital asset markets, while increasing adoption.

What happens in the meantime? The crypto market keeps getting bigger.

Digital assets are already mainstream — all of the major Wall Street banks have teams working on fintech and digital asset product offerings that we’ll see over the next year. Market adoption is already here and the existing volatility in the market is simply growing pains. Digital assets are not meant for soft hands at the moment (that’s the one thing Elon Musk got right over the last couple weeks, with his “diamond hands” tweet).

Where will the caucus start?

With education. These are very complicated topics that deserve the attention of every senator and member of Congress. Moving beyond that, our first priority must be to provide legal clarity and to ensure financial technology is normalized within our financial system.

Is there a model to follow?

There is already a robust regulatory framework for digital assets and banking in the United States — it’s a 771-page manual, accompanied by all sorts of other digital asset-focused statutes and rules, in Wyoming. My state has done its homework. There is a solid knowledge base to build from — we just have to get everyone on the same page. I don’t think the beginnings of a federal regulatory framework are all that far away.


Thank you for your support. Want to share The New York Times? Friends and family can enjoy unlimited digital access to our journalism with this special offer.

[h=3]THE SPEED READ[/h]

Deals


  • Forget Zoom: Investment bankers are rushing to meet clients in person again. (Reuters)
  • The head of Morgan Stanley’s prime brokerage is stepping down after the unit lost $911 million in the collapse of Archegos. (FT)

Politics and policy


  • Senate Republicans said they planned to nearly double their infrastructure proposal, to roughly $1 trillion. (Insider)
  • China is still significantly behind on its commitments to buying enough American goods to satisfy its “Phase 1” trade deal with the U.S. (CNBC)

Tech


  • Crypto companies are paying up to poach top executives from the likes of Goldman Sachs and Bridgewater Associates. (FT)
  • GameStop is getting into NFTs. (The Block)

Best of the rest


  • The latest indicators of the post-pandemic reopening include the return of fashion rentals and an uptick in airplane leisure fares. (NYT, CNBC)
  • Adoptions of Shiba Inu dogs are up, thanks to Dogecoin. (CNBC)
  • In case you missed it, watch the replay of our recent “Netting Zero” event about how to reduce emissions. (NYT Events)


Thanks for reading! We’ll see you tomorrow.
 

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TWST was a DNA storage play.



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Global Market Comments
May 26, 2021
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:
(STORAGE WARS)
(CSCO), (IBM), (SWCH), (MSFT)

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Storage WarsNo, this piece is not about the reality TV show that has a gruff lot of hopeful entrepreneurs blindly bidding for the contents of abandoned storage lockers.

With hyper-accelerating technology creating data at an exponential rate, it is getting far too big to physically store.

In 2018, over $80 billion was spent on data centers across the country, often in the remotest areas imaginable. Bend, OR, rural West Virginia, or dusty, sun-baked Sparks, NV, yes, they’re all there.

And you know what the biggest headache for the management of many tech companies is today? A severe shortage of cost-effective data storage and the skyrocketing electric power bills to power them.

During my lifetime, storage has evolved from one-inch magnetic tape on huge reels to highly unreliable 5 ¼ inch floppy disks, then 3-inch discs, and later to compact discs.

The solid-state storage on silicon chips that hit the market six years ago was a dream, as it was cheap, highly portable, and lightning-fast. Boot up time shrank from minutes to seconds. The only problem was the heat and sitting on it when you forgot those ultra-slim designs on the sofa.

Moore’s Law, which has storage doubling every 18 months while the cost halves, has proved faithful to the bitter end. The problem now is, the end is near, as the size of an electron becoming too big to pass through a gate increasingly a limiting factor.

As of 2017, the world needed 44 gigabytes of storage per day. According to the International Data Corporation, that figure will explode to 460 billion gigabytes by 2025, in a mere seven years.

That’s when the global data sphere will reach 160 trillion gigabytes, or 160 zettabytes. It all sounds like something out of an Isaac Asimov science fiction novel.

You can double that figure again when Google’s Project Loon brings the planet’s 5 million residents currently missing from the Internet online.

In the meantime, companies are making fortunes on the build-out. Some $50 billion has to be spent this year just to keep even with burgeoning storage demand.

And guess what? Thanks to rocketing demand from electric cars and AI, memory-grade silicon is expected to run out by 2040.

All I can say is “Better pray for DNA.”

Deoxyribonucleic acid has long been the Holy Grail for data storage. There is no reason why it shouldn’t work. After all, you and I are the product of the most dynamic data storage system known to man.

All of the information needed to replicate ourselves is found in 3 trillion base pairs occupying every single cell in the human body.

To give you some idea of the immense scalability of DNA, consider this. One exabyte of data storage using convention silicon would weigh 320 metric tonnes. The same amount of information in DNA would occupy five cubic centimeters weighing five grams, or 0.18 ounce!

And here is the big advantage of DNA. Conventional silicon permits only two programming choices, “0” or “1”. Even with just that, we have been able to achieve incredible gains in computing over the last 50 years.

DNA is made of four different bases, adenine, cytosine, guanine, and thymine, which allow four squared possible combinations, or 16. The power demands are immeasurably small and it runs cool.

Also known as NAM, or nucleic acid memory, it has already burst out of the realm of science fiction. Microsoft Research (MSFT), the University of Washington, and (IBM) have all gotten it to work on a limited basis.

So far, retrieval is the biggest problem, something we ourselves do trillions of time a day every day without thinking about it.

DNA is organic, requires no silicon, and can replicate itself into infinity at zero cost. The information can last tens of thousands of years. Indeed, scientists were recently able to reconstruct the DNA from Neanderthals who lived in caves in Spain 27,000 years ago.

Yes, you can now clone your own Neanderthal. Gardening work maybe? Low-waged assembly line workers? Soldiers? Traders? I think I already know some. Look for that tell-tale supraorbital brow (click here for details).

But I diverge.

If you want to make money, like tomorrow, instead of in a decade, there are still a few possibilities on the storage front.

If you want to take a flyer on the ongoing data storage buildout, you might look at Las Vegas-based Switch (SWCH). The company IPO’d in October and has since seen its shares drop by 32%, which is normal for these small tech companies.

A much cleaner and safer play is Cisco Systems (CSCO), one of my favorite lagging old technology companies. After all, everyone needs Cisco routers on an industrial scale.


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Quote of the Day“It’s easier to get out of Cuba than to get out of Facebook,” said a market analyst.

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TOGETHER WITH
LISTEN TO TODAY'S PODCAST AVAILABLE AT 8AM ON:
Top News
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The reputation of black gold got more tarnished yesterday as a trifecta of trouble hit the oil industry. While environmental groups and activist investors have stepped up the pressure in recent years to address concerns about climate change and fossil fuels, some of these historic defeats are being looked at as a watershed moment that will shift the oil-and-gas landscape. Shareholders, investment giants and lawmakers are increasingly raising their voices about a sustainable future, while some even see the transition as a way to secure future profits given changing trends and an ESG world.

Exxon - Activist hedge fund Engine No. 1 won at least two board seats on the company's board, which will likely force it to confront growing concerns about climate action. While it's still too soon to gauge what the green-tinged members will do, fundamentally, it was a blow to the oil major and shows that shareholders are no longer buying a permanent future in the oil-and-gas arena. The Exxon (XOM) battle was one of the biggest proxy shocks in Wall Street history, especially for a campaign that only began last December.

Chevron - Shareholders voted 61% to cut emissions from the end-use of its fuels, while the firm barely lost a non-binding vote calling for a report on the business impact of achieving net-zero emissions by 2050. The decision signals a "new sense of urgency," said Mark van Baal, who leads a climate advocacy group that placed resolutions calling for emissions cuts at Chevron (CVX) and elsewhere. Earlier this month, ConocoPhillips (COP) shareholders also rejected the company's board to support a similar push for a full-scope emissions reduction target.

Shell - Emissions goals were deemed insufficient by a Dutch court, which ordered the oil major to curb its carbon outflows by 45% by 2030 compared with 2019 levels. It also said that Shell (RDS.A, RDS.B) was not only responsible for lowering its own direct emissions from drilling and other operations, but also those of the oil, gas and fuels eventually burned by consumers. While Shell said it will appeal the ruling, Rystad Energy feels it has a "negligible chance" in court, and it also raises eyebrows on the company's decarbonization agenda that was considered one of the stricter plans in the industry. (111 comments)
Stocks
Up, down, up, down... Stock futures are pointing slightly lower this morning, keeping up with a trend seen this week of tepid gains and losses. Nasdaq futures are off by 0.5%, while contracts tied to the S&P 500 and Dow Jones are down 0.3% and 0.1%, respectively. The wavering of equities this week came as fears over runaway inflation eased, but Fed taper talk picked up pace, resulting in mixed sentiment on Wall Street.

Economic data: There's no shortage of figures today that can spark discussion over when monetary stimulus could begin to be scaled back. Durable goods numbers are scheduled to be released at 8:30 a.m. ET and are likely to reflect strong demand for cars, appliances and other factory goods. Initial jobless claims, a proxy for layoffs, will be released at the same time, as well as a revision to the 6.4% annualized GDP growth figure seen in Q1.

"Equity markets are quiet as investors continue to anticipate the Fed's next move," said Mark Hackett, chief of investment research at Nationwide. "Low volatility and low trading volume are a frequent occurrence in the week leading into a holiday."

Don't forget the meme trade! The WallStreetBets crew has returned with fervor, driving up so-called "meme stocks" on Wednesday. Shares of AMC Entertainment (AMC) rose nearly 20% and GameStop (GME) climbed 16%, and the two are up more than 60% and 37%, respectively, this week alone. "These people don't have unlimited firepower," Mad Money's Jim Cramer noted, "but they've got enough firepower to engineer a short-squeeze any time a bunch of professionals decide to bet against this thing."
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Media
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Amazon (AMZN) is putting up the big bucks in the streaming wars, reaching a deal to acquire MGM (OTCPK:MGMB) for $8.45B. The purchase is the second largest in the tech giant's history, behind its $13.7B transaction for Whole Foods in 2017. With MGM, Amazon will get a library of more than 4,000 films, including franchises like James Bond and Rocky, classics such as The Silence of the Lambs and 12 Angry Men, as well as critically acclaimed shows like The Handmaid's Tale.

Big pockets: While Amazon hasn't had the massive creative successes seen at Netflix (NFLX) and newcomer Disney+ (DIS), it does have the spending power to boost its position in the industry. On top of bolstering its Prime Video offerings, Amazon struck a recent deal with the NFL for exclusive rights to Thursday Night Football at a price of $1.2B a season over 11 years. In total, Amazon spent $11B on content last year, up from $7.8B in 2019.

One of the fastest-growing parts of Amazon's business is advertising and the MGM acquisition will allow the company to attach all sorts of ads to its new content. It could also create a fresh vertical with endless possibilities of what Amazon can do with a movie studio. Some say it won't change the face of Hollywood, though others are more skeptical given Amazon's dominance and the sway it has in many marketplaces.

Analyst commentary: In the race for scale that has ensued with every major media company jumping into streaming, the transaction "will likely distance Amazon’s Prime service from rivals that will (or do) offer a similar service," writes Citi's Jason Bazinet. "For a reasonable multiple, the deal ensures that Amazon has access to high-quality content as more media firms accelerate their direct-to-consumer pivot. In the aftermath of several streaming launches, Prime Video, Disney+ and perhaps Paramount Plus (VIAC) are the rivals arguably seen with enough scale to keep up with leader Netflix in the space."
Financials
You may be getting a new bank account if you're still a customer at HSBC (NYSE:HSBC). The company is ending its mass-market retail banking business in the U.S., selling much of the operations to Citizens Bank (NYSE:CFG) and Cathay Bank (NASDAQ:CATY), as it pivots towards wealth management and international banking. The change of strategy means HSBC will go from 1.4M customers to about 300K, after expanding into U.S. retail banking in the 1980s to diversify its geographical focus.

Details: The bank will offload 90 of its 148 American branches and wind down another 35 to 40 locations. Two dozen other sites will be converted into international wealth centers that will only service high-net-worth clients with balances over $75,000. HSBC will also sever ties with its retail business customers, meaning it will no longer transact with small businesses that have turnover of $5M or less.

"They are good businesses, but we lacked the scale to compete," CEO Noel Quinn declared. "Our continued presence in the U.S. is key to our international network and an important contributor to our growth plans." The lender lost nearly $550M on its U.S. wealth and personal banking division in 2020, compared to a profit of $573M on its global banking and markets division.

Outlook: HSBC is more than a year into an overhaul to refocus its operations in Asia, where it makes most of its profit and has pledged to invest about $6B over the next five years. It has meanwhile been walking back its U.S. investment over the last decade, selling nearly half of its U.S. branches in 2011 and its credit card business to Capital One in 2012. HSBC has also been looking to sell its French retail banking operations as part of the same strategy and has reportedly entered final negotiations to sell the division to private equity firm Cerberus.
What else is happening...
Ford (NYSE:F) ups EV investments, targets 40% electric car sales by 2030.

Gold closes above $1,900 as fundamentals 'have never been better.'

Coinbase (NASDAQ:COIN) sets up 'Fact Check' to fight crypto misinformation.

Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) to make presence in physical pharmacy space.

Jeff Bezos will hand Andy Jassy the Amazon (AMZN) reins on July 5.

Walmart (NYSE:WMT) to introduce first-ever home collection from Gap (NYSE:GPS).

CureVac (NASDAQ:CVAC) to finalize regulatory submission for COVID-19 vaccine.

Bayer (OTCPK:BAYRY) reviews Roundup's future in U.S. after court setback.

Janet Yellen, a no-show, at House hearing on COVID aid programs.

GM (NYSE:GM), Lockheed (NYSE:LMT) hope to develop lunar rover for NASA.

PG&E (NYSE:PCG) slapped with $150M in penalties for wildfires, outages.​
TOGETHER WITH
Wednesday's Key Earnings
American Eagle (NYSE:AEO) +5.7% with teens heading back to the mall.
DICK'S Sporting Goods (NYSE:DKS) +16.9% due to a sports and fitness boom.
Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) -0.9% AH as investors shook off a blowout report.
Okta (NASDAQ:OKTA) -2.8% AH on CFO departure, guidance miss.
Snowflake (NYSE:SNOW) -3.1% AH despite a raised product revenue forecast.
Workday (NASDAQ:WDAY) -1.1% AH as tech fell in extended trade.
Today's Markets
In Asia, Japan -0.3%. Hong Kong -0.2%. China +0.4%. India +0.2%.
In Europe, at midday, London -0.1%. Paris +0.5%. Frankfurt -0.3%.
Futures at 6:20, Dow -0.1%. S&P -0.3%. Nasdaq -0.5%. Crude -0.8% to $65.70. Gold -0.1%at $1899. Bitcoin -1.2% to $39217.
Ten-year Treasury Yield +1 bps to 1.58%
Today's Economic Calendar
 

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May 27, 2021

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Darren Woods, Exxon Mobil’s C.E.O., suffered a big defeat in his fight with an activist investor.Brendan McDermid/Reuters


[h=2]The little Engine …[/h]

Exxon Mobil suffered a stunning loss at its annual shareholder meeting yesterday, as a small new activist investor focused on climate change, Engine No. 1, won at least two seats on its 12-member board. To corporate America, the upset was a clear sign that company boards and leaders need to pay attention to environmental, social and governance issues (known as E.S.G.) — or suffer rebukes.

A big splash for a tiny fund. Exxon was the first activist campaign for Engine No. 1, which was founded last year by the energy and tech investor Chris James. Its head of active engagement is Charlie Penner, a veteran hedge fund executive who helped lead campaigns against companies like Apple while at Jana Partners.

It was a victory long in the making. Engine No. 1 began agitating against the oil giant in December, calling on the company to diversify away from fossil fuels and reduce its carbon emissions. But it began work on the campaign last March, courting large investors like public pension funds that held far larger stakes in Exxon, and thus had more sway. That’s how it parlayed a stake of just 0.02 percent into seats on the oil giant’s board — a truly remarkable feat. Exxon’s shares rose 1.2 percent yesterday.


[h=3]ADVERTISEMENT[/h]


  • Sources with knowledge of the matter told DealBook that the fund was betting on a confluence of events, including longstanding investor dissatisfaction with Exxon’s corporate governance and a growing appreciation on Wall Street for E.S.G.


  • In a note explaining why it backed three of Engine No. 1’s board candidates, BlackRock — which owns nearly 7 percent of Exxon — said the company’s directors “need to further assess the company’s strategy and board expertise against the possibility that demand for fossil fuels may decline rapidly in the coming decades.”

Exxon largely played down Engine No. 1’s concerns, and pressured the firm to drop its challenge after a much bigger hedge fund, D.E. Shaw, called off a campaign. But Engine No. 1 persisted, and also benefited from timing: It began its campaign while oil prices were still depressed by the pandemic. Had oil not rebounded in recent months, Engine No. 1 executives believe, all four of its directors might have been elected.

Big Oil is facing a reckoning. A Dutch court ruled yesterday that Royal Dutch Shell must speed up its efforts to cut its carbon emissions. And Chevron shareholders backed a proposal to compel the company to help customers reduce their own emissions.

One question we have: Is Darren Woods, Exxon’s C.E.O., who pushed back forcefully against Engine No. 1, now at risk of losing his job?

[h=3]HERE’S WHAT’S HAPPENING[/h]

The Justice Department opens an inquiry into Archegos. Prosecutors have asked some of the fund’s lenders for information about its meltdown, Bloomberg reports.


[h=3]ADVERTISEMENT[/h]

The rare blood clots associated with Covid-19 vaccines may have a fixable explanation. German scientists theorize that a feature of the AstraZeneca and Johnson & Johnson shots, one they say could be modified, may be responsible.

Russia puts pressure on U.S. tech giants. Moscow’s internet regulator now regularly demands that Facebook, Google and Twitter comply with its content restrictions and data storage requirements, or risk losing access to Russian users. It’s the latest instance of governments squeezing Silicon Valley companies.

Ford pours billions more into electric vehicles. The company will increase spending on the technology by a third, to $30 billion. It now expects 40 percent of the vehicles it produces worldwide to be electric by 2030.

Purdue Pharma’s restructuring plan is set for a vote. The judge overseeing the OxyContin maker’s bankruptcy case said he would let the company’s proposal — in which it would become a nonprofit, and both it and its founding Sackler family would be shielded from future legal liability — be voted on by 614,000 claimants.


[h=3]ADVERTISEMENT[/h]


[h=2]A culture of fear at the Gateses’ investment firm[/h]

Bill Gates’s longtime money manager, Michael Larson, bullied co-workers, made sexually inappropriate comments and engaged in a broad pattern of inappropriate workplace behavior, an investigation by The Times found. For the past 27 years, Larson has run Cascade Investment, also sometimes known as Bill and Melinda Gates Investments (B.M.G.I.), which manages the Gateses’ enormous fortune. Among The Times’s findings:


  • Larson made inappropriate comments about female employees. At a work party in the mid-2000s, he asked male employees which of three female colleagues they would want to have sex with. In another case, he asked an employee who was on a Weight Watchers program, “Are you losing weight for me?” Larson denied making any of the comments.
  • A racist comment from Larson led to an internal investigation. When a Black employee mentioned on Election Day that she had not had to wait in line to vote, Larson replied, “But you live in the ghetto, and everybody knows that Black people don’t vote.” A spokesman for Larson, Chris Giglio, denied that he made the remark. At least one employee reported it to human resources, resulting in an internal investigation.


  • Larson was known for “Larson bombs.” In emails, he sometimes called colleagues “stupid” or their work “garbage.” Some employees were moved to different floors in order to put distance between them and him. “Years ago, earlier in my career, I used harsh language that I would not use today,” Larson said. “I regret this greatly but have done a lot of work to change.”

“Any issue raised over the company’s history has been taken seriously and resolved appropriately,” said Bridgitt Arnold, a spokeswoman for Bill Gates.

Courtney Wade, a spokeswoman for Melinda French Gates, said, “Melinda unequivocally condemns disrespectful and inappropriate conduct in the workplace. She was unaware of most of these allegations given her lack of ownership of and control over B.M.G.I.”

“During his tenure, Mr. Larson has managed over 380 people, and there have been fewer than five complaints related to him in total,” said Giglio, Larson’s spokesman. “Any complaint was investigated and treated seriously and fully examined, and none merited Mr. Larson’s dismissal.”


[h=2]Overdraft math lessons[/h]

Yesterday, the Senate Banking Committee held a three-hour hearing with C.E.O.s from the country’s six biggest banks. It lacked much of the heat of sessions in the aftermath of the financial crisis, when Congress routinely castigated Wall Street chiefs. (The C.E.O.s gather again today for a hearing in the House.)

The most contentious moment came when Jamie Dimon of JPMorgan Chase felt the wrath of Senator Elizabeth Warren, Democrat of Massachusetts. Warren was a teacher before entering politics; she revealed her roots when she took Dimon and others to task for charging overdraft feesduring the pandemic.

The four biggest banks took $4 billion in overdraft fees from customers last year, Warren said. She singled out Dimon, asking him how much his bank, the nation’s largest, collected in 2020.

“I think your numbers are totally inaccurate,” he countered. Dimon noted that JPMorgan waived fees upon request, didn’t go into overdraft at the Fed (which had waived its fees for banks), and provided $120 million in Covid relief. The senator kept pressing and finally provided the figure herself: “It’s $1.463 billion dollars.”

“I did the math for you,” Warren said, calling their claims about stepping up during the pandemic “about $4 billion dollars’ worth of baloney.” When challenged to return the fees, none agreed. She asked Dimon directly twice, and he said “no” twice.


[h=2]Amazon, MGM and the streaming wars[/h]

Amazon said yesterday that it would acquire the 97-year-old film and television studio MGM for $8.45 billion — about 40 percent more than what other potential buyers, including Apple and Comcast, were willing to pay. The deal reportedly made MGM’s owner, the hedge fund Anchorage Capital, a $2 billion profit.

DealBook talked with Brooks Barnes, a reporter at The Times who covers Hollywood, about why Amazon was willing to pay so much and what this means for the streaming wars.

Are Amazon’s motives different from other streaming platforms’?

Amazon is mostly in the Prime membership business, whereas Netflix wants to sell subscriptions purely to its TV and movies. If you’re Amazon, you want to bolster Prime Video to make people even happier to pay for a Prime membership.

Is there a risk that regulators won’t allow the deal?

The regulatory scrutiny will be considerable. Representative Ken Buck and Senator Amy Klobuchar, both of whom have important antitrust roles, immediately voiced concern because Amazon is Amazon. But the deal is unlikely to be scuttled because MGM is relatively small and so is Amazon Studios.

What does the acquisition mean for the streaming wars?

If you’re Apple, you’re probably looking around and thinking, well, we don’t have a library, we don’t have a big franchise of our own. Do we need to go out and buy? People think that it will increase the pressure on other streaming services to bulk up.

And that’s becoming harder, right?

It’s becoming harder, which is partly, I’m sure, how Amazon justified some of the price. Disney isn’t for sale. Sony has repeatedly said its TV and movie operation is not for sale.

It’s also becoming harder in part because the corporate sibling studios are not licensing out as much — they’re supplying their own streaming services.

More takes on the deal:


  • Jason Hirschhorn, a former MGM board member, has been thinking out loud on Twitter about the deal, including the intriguing possibility that Amazon could buy out the family that controls MGM’s James Bond franchise, gaining more freedom to expand the Bond “universe.”
  • Brad Stone, the author of the new book “Amazon Unbound,” shared Jeff Bezos’s 12 ingredients for hit shows.
  • MGM owns the rights to “The Apprentice,” including unaired material that some claim contains unflattering footage of the reality show’s former host, Donald Trump. The tapes’ contractual status is unclear, but the notion that they might belong to Bezos, a frequent target of Trump’s ire when he was president, has set tongues wagging.


Thank you for your support. Want to share The New York Times? Friends and family can enjoy unlimited digital access to our journalism with this special offer.

[h=3]THE SPEED READ[/h]

Deals


  • HSBC plans to sell or close most of its U.S. retail branches, as it focuses on Asia. (WSJ)
  • Investors in Bill Ackman’s $5 billion SPAC are increasingly worried that it won’t strike a deal. (Institutional Investor)

Politics and policy


  • How Covax, the multibillion-dollar global vaccination program backed by governments and drug makers, ran aground. (WSJ)

Tech



Best of the rest


  • A record number of American workers tested positive for marijuana last year. (Insider)
  • The white woman who called police on a Black bird-watcher in Central Park last year sued her former employer, Franklin Templeton, for firing her over the incident. (NYT)


Thanks for reading! We’ll see you tomorrow.

We’d like your feedback! Please email thoughts and suggestions to dealbook@nytimes.com.


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Andrew Ross Sorkin, Founder/Editor-at-Large, New York @andrewrsorkin
Jason Karaian, Editor, London @jkaraian
Sarah Kessler, Deputy Editor, Chicago @sarahfkessler
Michael J. de la Merced, Reporter, London @m_delamerced
Lauren Hirsch, Reporter, New York @LaurenSHirsch
Ephrat Livni, Reporter, Washington D.C. @el72champs

 

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Nice.
Then you're a Floridian? you might see bubble burst in housing before you buy... not big huge but some relief or that's the way it looks from here....

Yes, we're both from Florida (I'm from Jax, wife's from Sarasota - so we're settling on Tampa/St. Pete area). The market is out of control there, very little inventory. We're looking to buy a lesser (cheaper) property with the plan to live there for a few years until we see a market 'correction' (or crash). We'll keep this house as a rental property after we move out.

We listed our cabin two weeks ago.....it got 6 offers the very first day and we accepted an offer for 31% over asking price! We listed it for $199,9k and they offered $261k cash. Next best offer was $240k, which was still much more than we expected - we expected around $210k-$220k. Property values out there in the mountains isn't strong, it's very rural. But it's close enough to DC (about 2 hours drive) that a lot of city-folk are starting to look out there. A couple from DC are buying it. We close on June 7th.
 

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Yes, we're both from Florida (I'm from Jax, wife's from Sarasota - so we're settling on Tampa/St. Pete area). The market is out of control there, very little inventory. We're looking to buy a lesser (cheaper) property with the plan to live there for a few years until we see a market 'correction' (or crash). We'll keep this house as a rental property after we move out.

We listed our cabin two weeks ago.....it got 6 offers the very first day and we accepted an offer for 31% over asking price! We listed it for $199,9k and they offered $261k cash. Next best offer was $240k, which was still much more than we expected - we expected around $210k-$220k. Property values out there in the mountains isn't strong, it's very rural. But it's close enough to DC (about 2 hours drive) that a lot of city-folk are starting to look out there. A couple from DC are buying it. We close on June 7th.


Dude, well done..you crushed it with the 31% above asking...congrats CB !




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Global Market Comments
May 27, 2021
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:(WHY AMAZON IS BEATING ALL), (AMZN)
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Why Amazon is Beating AllI believe there is a good chance that this creation of Jeff Bezos will see its shares double over the next five years.

Amazon is, in effect, taking over the world.

Jeff Bezos, born Jeff Jorgensen, is the son of an itinerant alcoholic circus clown and a low-level secretary in Albuquerque, New Mexico. When he was three, his father abandoned the family. His mother remarried a Cuban refugee, Miguel Bezos, who eventually became a chemical engineer for Exxon.

I have known Jeff Bezos for so long he had hair when we first met in the 1980s. He was a quantitative researcher in the bond department at Morgan Stanley, and I was the head of international trading.

Bezos was then recruited by the cutting-edge quantitative hedge fund, D.E. Shaw, which was making fortunes at the time, but nobody knew how. When I heard in 1994 that he left his certain success there to start an online bookstore, I thought he’d suffered a nervous breakdown, common in our industry.

Bezos incorporated his company in Washington state later that year, initially calling it “Cadabra” and then “Relentess.com.” He finally chose “Amazon” as the first interesting word that appeared in the dictionary, suggesting a river of endless supply. When I learned that Bezos would call his start-up “Amazon,” I thought he’d gone completely nuts.

Bezos funded his start-up with a $300,000 investment from his parents who he promised stood a 75% chance of losing their entire investment. But then his parents had already spent a lifetime running Bezos through a series of programs for gifted children, so they had the necessary confidence.

It was a classic garage start-up with three employees based in scenic Bellevue, Washington. The hours were long with all of the initial effort going into programming the initial site. To save money, Bezos bought second-hand pine doors which he placed on sawhorses, which stood in for proper desks.

Bezos initially considered 20 different industries to disrupt, including CDs and computer software. He quickly concluded that books were the ripest for disruption, as they were cheap, globally traded, and offered millions of titles.

When Amazon.com was finally launched in 1995, the day was spent fixing software bugs on the site, and the night wrapping and shipping the 50 or so orders a day. Growth was hyperbolic from the get-go, with sales reaching $20,000 a week by the end of the second month.

An early problem was obtaining supplies of books when wholesalers refused to offer him credit or deliver books on time. Eventually, he would ask suppliers to keep a copy of every book in existence at their own expense, which could ship within 24 hours.

Venture capital rounds followed, eventually raising $200 million. Early participants all became billionaires, gaining returns or 10,000-fold or more, including his trusting parents. There is one guy out there who missed becoming a billionaire because he didn’t check his voicemail often enough, which invited him into the initial funding round.

Bezos put the money to work, launching into a hiring binge of epic proportions. “Send us your freaks,” Bezos told the recruiting agencies, looking for the tattooed and the heavily pierced who were willing to work in shipping late at night for low wages. Keeping costs rock bottom was always an essential part of the Amazon formula.

Bezos used his new capital to raid Wal-Mart (WMT) for its senior distribution staff, for which it was later sued.

Amazon rode on the coattails of the Dotcom Boom to go public on NASDAQ on May 15, 1997 at $18 a share. The shares quickly rocketed to an astonishing $105, and in 1999 Jeff Bezos became Time magazine’s “Man of the Year.”

Unfortunately, the company committed many of the mistakes common to inexperienced management with too much cash on their hands. It blew $200 million on acquisitions that, for the most part, failed. Those include such losers as Pets.com and Drugstore.com. But Bezos’s philosophy has always been to try everything and fail them quickly, thus enabling Amazon to evolve 100 times faster than any other.

Amazon went into the Dotcom crash with tons of money on its hands, thus enabling it to survive the long funding drought that followed. Thousands of other competitors failed. Amazon shares plunged to $5.

But the company kept on making money. Sales soared by 50% a month, eventually topping $1 billion by 2001. The media noticed Wall Street took note. The company moved from the garage to a warehouse to a decrepit office building in downtown Seattle.

Amazon moved beyond books to compact disc sales in 1999. Electronics and toys followed. At its New York toy announcement, Bezos realized that the company actually had no toys on hand. So, he ordered an employee to max out his credit card cleaning out the local Hammacher Schlemmer just to obtain some convincing props.

A pattern emerged. As Bezos entered a new industry, he originally offered to run the online commerce for the leading firm. This happened with Circuit City, Borders, and Toys “R” Us. The firms then offered to take over Amazon, but Bezos wasn’t selling.

In the end Amazon came to dominate every field it entered. Please note that all three of the abovementioned firms no longer exist, thanks to extreme price competition from Amazon.

Amazon had a great subsidy in the early years as it did not charge state sales tax. As of 2011, it only charged sales tax in five states. That game is now over, with Amazon now collecting sales taxes in all 45 states that have them.

Amazon Web Services originally started out to manage the firm’s own website. It has since grown into a major profit center, with $17.4 billion in net revenues in 2017. Full disclosure: Mad Hedge Fund Trader is a customer.

Amazon entered the hardware business with the launch of its e-reader Kindle in 2007, which sold $5 billion worth in its first year. The Amazon Echo smart speaker followed in 2015 and boasts 71.9% market share. This is despite news stories that it records family conversations and randomly laughs.

Amazon Studios started in 2010, run by a former Disney executive, pumping out a series of high-grade film productions. In 2017 it became the first streaming studio to win an Oscar with Manchester by the Sea with Jeff Bezos visibly in the audience at the Hollywood awards ceremony.

Its acquisitions policy also became much more astute, picking up audiobook company Audible.com, shoe seller Zappos, Whole Foods, and most recently PillPack. Since its inception, Amazon has purchased more than 86 outside companies. Make that 89 with MGM Entertainment.

Sometimes, Amazon’s acquisition tactics are so predatory they would make John D. Rockefeller blush. It decided to get into the discount diaper business in 2010, and offered to buy Diapers.com, which was doing business under the name of “Quidsi.” The company refused, so Amazon began offering its own diapers for sale 30% cheaper for a loss. Diapers.com was driven to the wall and caved, selling out for $545 million. Diaper prices then popped back up to their original level.

Welcome to online commerce.

At the end of 2018, Amazon boasted some 306,000 employees worldwide. In fact, it has been the largest single job creator in the United States for the past decade. Also, this year it disclosed the number of Amazon Prime members at 100 million, then raised the price from $80 to $100, thus creating an instant $2 billion in profit.

The company’s ability to instantly create profit like this is breathtaking. And this will make you cry. In 2016, Amazon made $2.4 billion from Amazon gift cards left unredeemed!

In Q1 of 2021, Amazon revenues totaled an unbelievable $108.5 billion, up 44% YOY. Both operating profits of $8.1 billion and operating margins of 8.2% set new records. It is currently capturing about 50% of all new online sales. Clearly, it was a huge pandemic winner.

So, what’s on the menu for Amazon? There is a lot of new ground to pioneer.

1) Healthcare is the big one, accounting for $3 trillion, or 17% of U.S. GDP, but where Amazon has just scratched the surface. Its recent $1 billion purchase of PillPack signals a new focus on the area. Who knows? The hyper-competition Bezos always brings to a new market would solve the American health care crisis, which is largely cost-driven. Bezos can oust middlemen like no one else.

2) Food is the great untouched market for online commerce, which accounts for 20% of total U.S. retail spending, but sees only 2% take place online. Essentially this is a distribution problem, and you have to accomplish this within the prevailing subterranean 1% profit margins in the industry. Books don’t need to be frozen or shipped fresh. Wal-Mart (WMT) will be target No. 1, which currently gets 56% of its sales from groceries. Amazon took a leap up the learnings curve with its $13.7 billion purchase of Whole Foods (WFC) in 2017. What will follow will be interesting.

3) Banking is another ripe area for “Amazonification,” where excessive fees are rampant. It would be easy for the company to accelerate the process through buying a major bank that already had licenses in all 50 states. Amazon is already working the credit card angle.

4) Overnight Delivery is a natural, as Amazon is already the largest shipper in the U.S., sending out more than 1 million packages a day. The company has a nascent effort here, already acquiring several aircraft to cover its most heavily trafficked routes. Expect FedEx (FDX), UPS (UPS), DHL, and the United States Post Office to get severely disrupted.

5) Clothing - Amazon has already surpassed Wal-Mart this year as the largest clothing retailer. The company has already launched 76 private labels, with half of them in the fashion area, such as Clifton Heritage (color and printed shirts), Buttoned Down (100% cotton shirts), and Goodthreads (casual shirts) as well as subscription services for all of the above.

6) Furniture is currently the fastest-growing category at Amazon. Customers can use an Amazon tool to design virtual rooms to see where new items and colors will fit best.

7) Event Ticketing firms like StubHub and Ticketmaster are among the most despised companies in the U.S., so they are great disruption candidates. Amazon has already started in the U.K., and a takeover of one of the above would ease its entry into the U.S.

If only SOME of these new business ventures succeed, they have the potential to DOUBLE Amazon’s shares from current levels, taking its market capitalization up to $3.2 trillion. Perhaps this explains why institutional investors continue to pour into the shares, despite being up a torrid 134% from the February lows.

Whatever happened to Bezos’s real father, Ted Jorgensen? He was discovered by an enterprising journalist in 2012 running a bicycle shop in Glendale, Arizona. He had long ago sobered up and remarried. He had no idea who Jeff Bezos was. Ted Jorgensen died in 2015. Bezos never took the time to meet him. Too busy running Amazon, I guess. Worth over $200 billion, Bezos is now the second richest man in the world after Elon Musk.

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Quote of the Day"Forget what you know about buying fair businesses at wonderful prices. Instead, buy wonderful business at fair prices," said Oracle of Omaha, Warren Buffett.
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This is not a solicitation to buy or sell securities
The Mad Hedge Fund Trader is not an Investment advisor
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Top News
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Ahead of Memorial Day, we want to express appreciation to the brave men and women who have made the ultimate sacrifice for our freedom. Seeking Alpha wishes all our subscribers a beautiful holiday weekend and let us remember those who courageously gave their lives. Wall Street Breakfast won't be published with markets closed on Monday, but tune back on Tuesday.

President Biden is scheduled to release his fiscal year 2022 budget today at 2 p.m. ET, which will serve as a blueprint for the administration's fiscal priorities. Documents obtained by the NYT showed a proposal that totaled $6T, which would take the U.S. to its highest sustained levels of federal spending since World War II. Funding for the agenda would be obtained by raising taxes on corporations and the ultra-wealthy, while consumer prices wouldn't rise faster than 2.3% per year and the Fed would slowly raise rates from their current rock-bottom levels.

What's in the request? The package is being driven by the American Jobs Plan and American Families Plan - two proposals that are estimated to cost more than $4T. The first piece of legislation centers around physical infrastructure like roads, bridges, broadband internet and EV charging stations. The second covers what the administration calls "human infrastructure," or social programs, such as affordable childcare, universal prekindergarten and a national paid leave program. It would also increase federal spending to $8.2T per year by 2031, meaning annual deficits of over $1.3T (and $1.8T in 2022).

The budget additionally contains funding for scientific research combating climate change, as well as investments in public service agencies like the CDC and EPA. Defense spending would also grow, especially the military's cyber force, though it would decline as a percentage of the overall economy. With regards to student loan forgiveness, Biden excluded the campaign promise from the proposal despite pressure from progressives to cancel up to $50,000 in debt per borrower.

Outlook: With Democrats in control of both chambers of Congress, Biden has better odds than any president in recent history for passing his agenda, especially if he can negotiate with lawmakers on parts of his infrastructure package. This time around, Democrats might also seek to pass the legislation under budget reconciliation if members in the House and Senate can pass an identical package. That would allow the budget to sail through the Senate via a simple majority, rather than the 60 votes needed for most bills or spending measures.
Trending
Is travel making a comeback? It sure looks like it, based on forecasts for Memorial Day weekend. More than 37M Americans are expected to travel from Thursday to Monday, which is up 60% from last year, according to AAA. The need to get out follows a successful coronavirus vaccination campaign, as well as a reduction in COVID-19 cases, and comes despite gas prices that have skyrocketed across the country (90% of travelers will be driving).

Bigger picture: Security lines have been stretched at the busiest U.S. airports, with 2.5M people expected to travel this weekend. Helping supply the ferocious demand is the launch of new U.S. budget carriers: Avelo Airlines and Breeze Airways. The two are targeting smaller airports and underserved routes, and could put more pressure on larger carriers like JetBlue (NASDAQ:JBLU), Southwest (NYSE:LUV), American (NASDAQ:AAL) and Delta (NYSE:DAL) if they survive. The last U.S. airline to launch, Virgin America, folded in 2018.

"It is night and day, compared to 2020," said Henry Harteveldt, an airline industry analyst at Atmosphere Research Group. "Hotels are booked full, companies like Airbnb (NASDAQ:ABNB) and Vrbo (NASDAQ:EXPE) say they are sold out in many communities, and rental cars are all but impossible to find."

Market movement: General Electric (GE) shares notched their highest close in three yearson Thursday, surging 7.1% to lead the S&P 500, as Boeing (BA) and its suppliers rallied in response to news that rival Airbus (OTCPK:EADSY) was preparing to gear up production of its A320-series jets beyond pre-pandemic levels. Boeing is GE's second-largest customer while Airbus ranks third. The broad aerospace rally also touched Triumph Group (TGI), Spirit AeroSystems (SPR), Honeywell (HON), L3Harris (LHX) and Raytheon (RTX).
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Economy
The stock market continued to tick higher on Thursday, and the gains held overnight, as the number of weekly jobless claims came in lower than expected. The U.S. Labor Department said there were 406,000 initial jobless claims last week, below the 425,000 figure forecast by economists. Dow Jones futures are currently ahead by 0.5%, while contracts linked to the S&P 500 and Nasdaq are up 0.4% and 0.3%, respectively. Meanwhile, the Russell 2000 is set to close out May with its eighth straight monthly win as small-caps continue to shine in the post-pandemic recovery.

The other question mark surrounding the recovery centers around inflation. The Fed has said it will let the figure run hot, as rising price pressures would be "transitory," but many investors are still nervous about the prospect of the central bank tightening monetary policy if the economy overheats. The Fed's preferred measure of inflation, Personal Consumption Expenditures, is set to be released this morning, and may go some of the way in clarifying near-term investing sentiment.

What to expect: Core PCE, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, is expected to have climbed 2.9% Y/Y, a sharp increase from the 1.8% figure seen in March. The jump is due in part to base pandemic-related effects from 2020, but would also bring the core PCE well above the Fed's 2% target, and to levels that have not been seen since the 1990s.

Don't forget the meme trade: WSB/Reddit-favorite AMC Entertainment (AMC), soared another 35% on Thursday, putting YTD gains at 1,200%. It's up another 23% this morning at $32.49/share and has dealt investors betting against the movie theater chain roughly $1.3B in losses, according to financial analytics firm S3 Partners. Beyond Meat (BYND) has also joined the party, rallying 12% on Thursday, after appearing on the Reddit Top 20 mentions list in the last couple of weeks.
Global
Boosting U.S. economic competitiveness and confronting China's rise is going hand-in-hand again as the U.S. Senate moves toward passing the U.S. Innovation and Competition Act of 2021 (USICA). The bill would sink more than $100B into U.S. research and development and provide $52B to advance domestic semiconductor manufacturing. It also includes a wide range of measures directly targeting China, such as its human rights record, a day after a Beijing-drafted resolution effectively ended open elections in Hong Kong.

The latest? Taking on China is a rare area of bipartisan support, but some hurdles to the bill's passage remain in the House, as well as a series of amendments under consideration. The Senate has already voted on 18 revisions, 14 of them from GOP senators, but Majority Leader Chuck Schumer still hopes to pass USICA before senators leave Washington for the holiday weekend. President Biden is also ready to sign the bill as the administration wraps up an initial supply-chain review on computer chips, EVs batteries, pharmaceuticals and minerals used in electronics.

Earlier this week, the U.S took a significant policy shift in its approach toward China. "The period that was broadly described as engagement has come to an end," said Kurt Campbell, the U.S. coordinator for Indo-Pacific affairs on the National Security Council, adding that the new "dominant paradigm is going to be competition." Remarks by President Biden over the origins of COVID-19 (jump from animals to humans or lab accident) also angered officials in Beijing.

Excerpt from the bill: "While the U.S. represented 37% of global semiconductor manufacturing capacity in 1990, today just 12% of semiconductors are manufactured in the U.S... The Chinese Communist Party is aggressively investing over $150B in semiconductor manufacturing so they can control this key technology... At the same time, halted domestic production lines for consumer technology, auto manufacturers, truckers, and other critical industries underscores the vulnerability the U.S. faces."
What else is happening...
J&J (NYSE:JNJ) nears deal to reopen troubled Baltimore vaccine plant.

SolarWinds (NYSE:SWI) hackers targeting new government agencies and NGOs.

Pioneer Merger (NASDAQ:PACX) announces SPAC merger with investing app Acorns.

Cruella debuts in theaters and on Disney+ (NYSE:DIS) Premier Access.

Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) loses top safety pick status for Model 3 after radar decision.

Jamie Dimon won't stop JPMorgan (NYSE:JPM) from offering crypto services.

Kinder Morgan (NYSE:KMI) planning to enter petroleum fuels trading.

House committee presses social-media CEOs on COVID-19 disinformation.

Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) led Q1 wearable shipments driven by Watch strength.

Virgin Galactic (NYSE:SPCE) soars again as investors latch on to rocket story.​
TOGETHER WITH
Thursday's Key Earnings
Today's Markets
In Asia, Japan +2.1%. Hong Kong +0.1%. China -0.2%. India +0.7%.
In Europe, at midday, London +0.1%. Paris +0.5%. Frankfurt +0.4%.
Futures at 6:20, Dow +0.5%. S&P +0.4%. Nasdaq +0.3%. Crude +0.4% to $67.13. Gold -0.2% at $1895.20. Bitcoin -8% to $35871.
Ten-year Treasury Yield flat at 1.61%
Today's Economic Calendar

 

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May 28, 2021

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The oil giant’s management was laid low by activist investors.Jim Young/Reuters


[h=2]Behind the scenes in the battle over Exxon’s board[/h]

Exxon Mobil’s defeat by a new activist investor, Engine No. 1, at its annual meeting on Wednesday is still reverberating around Wall Street. Shareholders voting against management to install at least two new board members is seen as both a milestone for climate-focused investing and the emergence of a new force in shareholder activism. DealBook has the behind-the-scenes dish on the most important moments in the battle.

An initial meeting that didn’t go well. On Jan. 22, Exxon’s C.E.O., Darren Woods, and lead independent director, Ken Frazier, held a Zoom call with Engine No. 1 executives. During the meeting, Frazier struck a conciliatory tone — at one point, he held up a peace sign — but said the company didn’t consider Engine No. 1’s nominees to be qualified. Charlie Penner, the fund’s head of active engagement, said the company should reconsider, and insisted on all four of its candidates taking seats on Exxon’s board.


  • After the call, both sides girded for battle, with Exxon naming new board members later without Engine No. 1’s input.

Another activist threw in the towel. In March, Exxon reached a settlementwith a far bigger investor, the hedge fund D.E. Shaw, that had also been calling for changes in strategy. The company used that agreement to put pressure on Engine No. 1 to call off its fight, and Engine No. 1 briefly worried that could undercut support for its campaign from other big investors.


[h=3]ADVERTISEMENT[/h]

A last-minute pause. By Wednesday, Exxon and its advisers knew they were in danger, when preliminary vote counts before the shareholder meeting appeared to show Engine No. 1 winning at least two seats. In the middle of the meeting, the company unexpectedly called for a one-hour recess, and both sides reached out to investors. Exxon asserted it was at the behest of shareholders asking for more time to decide; supporters of Engine No. 1 worried the company was trying to convince them to change their ballots.


  • In the end, many of Exxon’s top institutional investors voted in favor of Engine No. 1’s candidates, while retail shareholders tended to favor the company’s nominees. The final results — including whether the fund can claim a third director position — aren’t expected until next week, at the earliest.

Now what? Engine No. 1 may have claimed seats on Exxon’s board, but the hard part is just beginning, The Times’s Cliff Krauss and Peter Eavis note. Getting a few directors on the 12-person board doesn’t guarantee a quick or radical shift in Exxon’s business practices.


  • Engine No. 1 executives said they don’t expect immediate change, but hailed their victory as a sea change. “Our overall goal is really greater transparency,” Chris James, the fund’s founder, said.

[h=3]HERE’S WHAT’S HAPPENING[/h]

Wall Street banks say vaccinated workers can forego masks at the office.Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan Chase announced that employees who log their vaccination details can work mask-free in states that allow it, like New York. The two banks have been among the biggest proponents of ending fully remote work as soon as possible.

A Johnson & Johnson vaccine plant may reopen soon. The drugmaker and the F.D.A. are near a deal to restart operations at the Baltimore facility that had been shut down over contamination concerns, The Wall Street Journal reports. Separately, scientists are studying whether people can mix and match vaccine booster shots.


[h=3]ADVERTISEMENT[/h]

AMC Entertainment’s stock soars, again. The movie theater chain’s shares have more than doubled this week, surpassing the peak of meme-stock mania in January. Retail investors once again are banding together and encouraging each other in Reddit forums, on Twitter and elsewhere. AMC’s stock is up nearly 20 percent in premarket trading.

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Facebook lifts ban on posts suggesting a manufactured origin for Covid-19. The social network will no longer take down such content, after President Biden ordered a new inquiry into whether the coronavirus accidentally leaked from a Chinese laboratory.


[h=3]ADVERTISEMENT[/h]

A rich parting gift for WeWork’s former C.E.O. The co-working company paid Adam Neumann, its co-founder, a $245 million stock award as part of an exit package when he left in 2019, The Journal reports. The compensation was disclosed in filings tied to WeWork’s impending merger with a SPAC.


[h=2]The very big numbers in Biden’s budget[/h]

Today, President Biden will propose a multitrillion-dollar budget that would set the U.S. on a course for “its highest sustained levels of federal spending since World War II,” writes The Times’s Jim Tankersley, who got a first look at the documents.

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The headline figures:


  • $6 trillion in spending for the 2022 fiscal year, rising to $8.2 trillion by 2031.
  • A deficit of $1.8 trillion next year, falling to $1.6 trillion by 2031.
  • Debt relative to the size of the economy that rises to its highest level in history, reaching 117 percent of G.D.P. in 2031.

But it’s not all big numbers:


  • Inflation is forecast to remain below 2.3 percent through 2031, showing little fear of an overheating economy.
  • Economic growth is projected to hit 5.2 percent this year, but then settle at just under 2 percent in later years.
  • Despite big debts, interest costs are expected to run below the long-term average of 2 percent of G.D.P. because of low interest rates.

Remember: The budget is simply a request to Congress, so Biden must win over moderate Democrats to approve his plans, assuming that all Republicans oppose them (which seems likely, given how far apart the sides are on spending priorities).


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[h=2]Exclusive: Warby Parker may hire Goldman to help it go public[/h]

The trendy eyewear brand Warby Parker is in talks to hire Goldman Sachs to help lead a public listing as soon as this year, DealBook hears. The eyeglass retailer is leaning toward a direct listing, though hasn’t made any formal decisions yet.

A highly anticipated listing. Bankers have been circling Warby Parker for years in hopes of landing the high-profile mandate. Warby, though, has bided its time, adding services like a prescription check mobile app before making its debut. A direct listing, which leans on fewer banks, would make the debut slightly deflating to bankers who have been waiting in the wings.

A new generation of retail brands. Warby Parker, founded in 2010, was one of the first in a generation of digital retailers that eschewed stores, opting instead to sell directly to customers online. Warby later helped usher in the “clicks to bricks” wave, combining online reach with retail touch and marketing might. It now has stores across the country.

Inspired by Kerouac. The company, named for the Jack Kerouac charactersWarby Pepper and Zagg Parker, was founded by Neil Blumenthal, Dave Gilboa, Andy Hunt and Jeff Raider. (Raider also went on to found direct-to-consumer shaving brand Harry’s.) Warby has raised money from investors like T. Rowe Price and Baillie Gifford, including a $245 million round last year that reportedly valued it at $3 billion.


[h=2]In the papers[/h]

Some of the academic research that caught our eye this week, summarized in one sentence:




[h=2]Help wanted: Crypto lobbyist[/h]

The Crypto Council for Innovation, a trade group established last month by a few influential companies — and making waves in crypto circles — is looking for a new leader. Just as digital assets are becoming a very hot topic in Washington, the association that says it aims to influence regulators globally is without a voice of its own.

In search of leadership. Gus Coldebella, the chief policy officer at the investment firm Paradigm, who started and led C.C.I., is leaving the group and his role at Paradigm, DealBook is the first to report. “With C.C.I. now on its feet, I thought the timing was right to take on a new challenge,” he told us. Paradigm confirmed the departure, saying, “Gus did important work at Paradigm over the past year, most notably helping stand up the Crypto Council for Innovation, which is currently recruiting an executive director.”

C.C.I. has only four members: the asset manager Fidelity, the payments company Square, the cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase and Paradigm. It formed just ahead of Coinbase’s blockbuster Wall Street debut, aiming to serve as a bridge between new and traditional finance. But a lot has changed since the heady days of mid-April, when Coinbase was the darling of Wall Street, Bitcoin was riding high and C.C.I. last tweeted about crypto going mainstream.


[h=2]Figs is Robinhood’s first experiment with I.P.O. Access[/h]

Figs, the medical apparel brand, went public this week at a $4.4 billion valuation. It was the first company to participate in Robinhood’s I.P.O. Access program, which lets retail investors who use the app buy shares in a company at its I.P.O. price before they’re available on public exchanges. Robinhood started the program earlier this month, in advance of its own I.P.O. expected this summer.

Robinhood recently reached out to Figs, the scrubs seller’s co-chief executives, Heather Hasson and Trina Spear, told DealBook. The goal, they said, was to offer health care professionals an early chance at the brand’s I.P.O. The company’s shares rose nearly 40 percent on their first day of trading.

Figs says it makes clothes for the modern health care worker. Its scrubs and related apparel, which include joggers and vests, come in stylish colors and are outfitted with useful touches like pockets. The company has also expanded beyond health care into “lifestyle” products like sports bras, socks and leggings. The business got a bump during the pandemic — more than doubling revenue in 2020 — but can it sustain that growth after the country emerges from a health crisis?


Thank you for your support. Want to share The New York Times? Friends and family can enjoy unlimited digital access to our journalism with this special offer.

[h=3]THE SPEED READ[/h]

Deals


  • SPACs should be more strictly regulated, argues the SPAC mogul Chamath Palihapitiya. (Bloomberg Opinion)
  • The meltdown of Archegos has had an unexpected side effect: a clampdown on hedge fund investments in SPACs. (FT)
  • The European e-commerce lender Klarna is reportedly close to raising new capital at a $40 billion valuation from investors including SoftBank. (Insider)

Politics and policy


  • Some former Trump administration officials face payments for deferred payroll taxes that the White House assured them would be forgiven. (Politico)
  • Charles Koch pledged to work with the Biden administration. So far, his political network has mostly opposed the White House. (CNBC)

Tech


  • How criminals cash out of Bitcoin. (FT)
  • G.M. plans to restart several plants that it had idled because of a semiconductor shortage. (NYT)

Best of the rest


  • Nike cut its ties to the soccer star Neymar after an employee accused him of sexually assaulting her. (WSJ)
  • “You should be suspicious of benevolent big business” (Recode)
  • What will we wear when we return to the office? (Quartz)


Thanks for reading! We’ll see you tomorrow.
 

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yesterdays MH



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Global Market Comments
May 28, 2021
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:
(MAY 26 BIWEEKLY STRATEGY WEBINAR Q&A),
(SPY), (DIS), (AMZN), (FCX), (X), (PLTR), (FXE), (FXA), (TLT), (TBT), (AMC), (GME), (ZM), (DAL), (AXP), (LEN), (TOL), (KBH), (DOCO), (ZM), (TSLA), (NVDA), (ROM)

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May 26 Biweekly Strategy Webinar Q&ABelow please find subscribers’ Q&A for the May 26 Mad Hedge Fund Trader Global Strategy Webinar broadcast from Lake Tahoe, NV.
Q: Do you expect a longer pullback for the (SPY) through the summer and into the last quarter?
A: No, this market is chomping at the bit and go up and won’t do any more than a 5% correction. We’ve already tested this pullback twice. We could stay in this 5% range for a few more weeks or months, but no longer. If we make it to August before we take off to the upside, that would be a miracle. It seems to want to break out right now and if you look at the tech stocks charts you can see what I'm talking about.
Q: Why do day orders with spreads not good ‘til canceled (GTC)?
A: Actually, you can do good ‘til canceled on these spreads, it just depends on how your platform is set up. Good ‘til canceled won't hurt you—only if we get a sudden reversal on a stop out which has only happened four times this year.
Q: Disney (DIS) seems to be struggling to get back over $180; am I still safe with my January 2023 $250 LEAPS?
A: Yes, out to 2023 we’ll have two summers until those expire, so those look pretty good—that's a pretty aggressive trade, and I’m betting you’re looking at a 500% profit on those LEAPS. And by the way, I always urge people to go out long on these LEAPS, because the second year is almost free when you check the pricing. So, take the gift and that will also greatly reduce your risk. We could have a whole recession and recovery, and still have those LEAPS make it to $250 in Disney.
Q: Should I add to Freeport McMoRan (FCX)?
A: (FCX) I would not add—in fact, I would have a stop loss if we closed below $40 on (FCX) if you’re a short-term trader. There is a slowdown in the Chinese economy going on as well a clampdown on commodity speculation. This has affected the whole base metal space, including steel and palladium. If you have the long-term LEAPS, keep them, because I think (FCX) doubles from here. The whole “green revolution story” is still good.
Q: Do you think the United States Treasury Bond Fund (TLT) is going up?
A: No, I think the (TLT) has been going down. I've been buying puts spreads like crazy, and I have a huge chunk of my own retirement fund in long dated (TLT) LEAPS, so I am praying it will go down. We’ll talk about that when we get to the bond section.
Q: Prospects for U.S. Steel (X)?
A: It’s tied in with the whole rest of the base commodity complex—I think it is due for a rest after a terrific run, which is why I have such tight stop losses on Freeport McMoRan (FCX).
Q: Do you buy the “transitory” explanation for the hot inflation read two weeks ago that the Fed is handing out, or do you think inflation is bad and here to stay?
A: I go with the transitory argument because you’re getting a lot of one-time-only price rises off of the bottom a year ago when the economy completely shut down. Once those price rises work through the system, the inflation rate should go from 4.2% back down to 2% or so. So, I don't see inflation as a risk, which is why I think the stock markets can reach my 30% up target this year. You may get another hot month as the year-on-year comparisons are enormous. But betting on inflation is betting on the reversal of a 40-year trend, which usually doesn’t work out so well.
Q: On your spread trade alerts can we buy less than 25 contracts?
A: You can buy one contract. In fact, I recommend people start with one contract and test out where the real market is. Put a bid for one contract in the middle of the market, and if it doesn’t get done, raise your bid 5 cents, and eventually, your order gets done. Then you can add more if you want to. I always recommend this even for people who buy thousands of contracts, that they test the market with one contract order just to make sure the market is actually there.
Q: Can you recommend a LEAPS for Amazon (AMZN)?
A: The Amazon LEAPS spread is the January 2022 $3150-3300 vertical call debit spread going out 8 months.
Q: When you short the (TLT), how do you do it?
A: I do vertical bear put debit spreads. I buy a near-money put and sell short and an out-of-the-money put so I can reduce the cost, and therefore triple my size. This strategy triples the leverage on the most likely part of the stock move to take place, which is the at the money. For example, a great one to buy here would be a January 2021 (TLT) $135/140 vertical bear put debit spread where you’re buying the $140 and selling short the $135. The potential 8-month profit on this is around 100%. You’ll make far more money on that kind of trade than you ever would just buying puts outright. Some 80% of the time the single option trades expire worthless. You don’t want to become one of those worthless people.
Q: What’s your best idea for avoiding a U.S. Dollar drop?
A: Buy the Invesco Currency Shares Euro Trust (FXE) or buy the Invesco Currency Shares Australian Dollar Trust Trust (FXA), the Australian Dollar to hedge some of your US Dollar risk. The Australian dollar is basically a call option on a global economic recovery.
Q: I’m a new subscriber, but I don’t get all the recommendations that you mention.
A: Please email customer support at support@madhedgefundtrader.com, tell them you’re not getting trade alerts, and she'll set you up. We have to get you into a different app in order for you to get all those alerts.
Q: How about the ProShares UltraShort 20 Year Treasury ETF (TBT)—is that a bet on declining (TLT)?
A: Absolutely yes, that is a great bet and we’re at a great entry point right now on the (TBT) so that is something I would start scaling into today.
Q: Do you still like Palantir (PLTR)?
A: Yes, but the reason I haven't been pushing it is because the CEO says he could care less about the stock market, and when the CEO says that it tends to be a drag on the stock. Palantir has an easy double or triple on it on a three-year view though. However, small tech has been out of favor since February as it is overpriced.
Q: How far down can the (TLT) go in the next 30 days?
A: It could go down to $135 and maybe $132 on an extreme move, especially if we get another hot CPI read on June 10. However, if you hear the word “taper” from a Fed official, then you’re looking at high $120’s in days.
Q: With the TLT going up, why have you not sent out an alert to double up on put spreads?
A: I tend to be a bit of a perfectionist since I’m a scientist and an engineer, so I’m hanging on for an absolute top to prove itself and start on the way down. On the shorts, I like selling them on the way down, and buying my longs on the way up, because there’s always surprises, there’s always the unknown, and heaven forbid, I might actually be wrong sometimes! So, I’m still waiting on this one. And we do already have one position that is fairly close to the money now, the June 2021 $141-144 vertical bear put debit spread, so I don't want to double up on that until we have a reversal in the intermediate term trend.
Q: I see GameStop (GME) is spiking again now up to $230—should I get in for a short-term profit?
A: No. With these meme stocks, the trading is totally random. If anything, I would be selling short, but I would do it in a limited risk way by buying a put spread. However, the implied volatility in the options on these meme stocks are so high that it's almost impossible to make any money on options; you’re paying enormous amounts of money up front, so that's my opinion on GameStop and on AMC Entertainment Holdings (AMC), the other big meme stock.
Q: Will business travel come back after the world is vaccinated?
A: Absolutely. Companies don't want to send people on the road, but customers will demand it. All you need is one competitor to land an order because they visited the customer instead of doing a Zoom (ZM) meeting, and all of a sudden business travel will come roaring back. So that's why I was dabbling in Delta Airlines (DAL) and that's why I like American Express (AXP), where 8% of transactions are for first class airline tickets.
Q: As the work-from-home economy stops and workers go back to the office, do you see a 10% correction in the housing market?
A: Actually, in the housing market with real houses, I don't see prices dropping for years, because 30% of the people who went home to work are staying there for good—that the trend out of the cities into the hinterlands is a long-term trend that will continue for decades, now that Zoom has freed us of the obligations to commute and be near big cities. And of course, I’m a classic example of that; I've been working either in my basement in San Francisco or at Lake Tahoe for the last 14 years. Housing stocks on the other hand like Lennar (LEN), Toll Brothers (TOL) and KB Home (KBH) have had a tremendous run and are basically out of homes. Could they have a 10% correction at any time? Absolutely, yes.
Q: Should I avoid buying dips in last year's work-from-home stocks?
A: Yes I would. DocuSign (DOCO) and Zoom (ZM) are the two best ones because they were both up 12X from their lows, and I tend not to chase things that are up 12X unless they are a Tesla (TSLA) or an Nvidia (NVDA) or something like that. In the end, Tesla went up 295 times.
Q: Are you looking at the carbon credits market?
A: No, but I probably should. That market shut down last year. It’s alive again, and it looks like it's growing like crazy.
Q: What’s the ideal volatility for individual options? What do you use to compare?
A: Always look at the implied volatility of the option compared to the realized volatility of the underlying stock; and when the difference gets too big, you get ideal conditions for putting on call and put spreads, which take advantage of this. These are almost volatility neutral because you’re long on one batch of volatility and short on the other.
Q: Is it too late to get involved in the ProShares Ultra Technology ETF (ROM), the 2X long ETF in a spread?
A: The November 2021 $121-125 vertical bull call spread, the farthest expiration you can get for the (ROM), was kind of aggressive—I would go closer to the money. We’re right around mid $80s right now, so maybe do a January 2022 $95-100, and even that will get you something like a 400% gain by November.
To watch a replay of this webinar with all the charts, bells, whistles, and classic rock music, just log in to go to MY ACCOUNT, click on GLOBAL TRADING DISPATCH (or Tech Letter as the case may be), then WEBINARS, and all the webinars from the last ten years are there in all their glory.
Good Luck and Stay Healthy.

John Thomas
CEO & Publisher
The Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader


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Summit of Mount Rose at 10,778 feet
and Lake Tahoe on the Right
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Quote of the Day"Technology has outrun the ability of the market to handle it. When the next bear market comes, there could be a messy affair," said my friend and client Leon Cooperman of hedge fund Omega Advisors.

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Interesting read.

May 29, 2021

Good morning. Psychological research and the daily routines of successful people both suggest that your work will benefit when you take quality time off. In today’s newsletter, Rob Walker, the author of “The Art of Noticing” and a newsletter by the same name, explains how to start cultivating a “rest ethic” — even if you don’t have the time.

For those of you observing Memorial Day in the U.S., or other public holidays elsewhere in the world, we hope that you have a restful, thoughtful Monday. The DealBook newsletter returns on Tuesday.

(Was this newsletter forwarded to you? Sign up here.)


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Illustration by The New York Times; Photo by Olivier Morin/A.F.P.


[h=2]Hit the breaks[/h]

By Rob Walker

It’s probably never been easier to acknowledge that a lot of us work too much and too hard, and should take more time off. Indeed, the very idea of burnout seems to be having a cultural moment.

“If you think you’re burned out, you’re burned out,” Jill Lepore wrote recently in The New Yorker, summarizing the workplace zeitgeist, “and if you don’t think you’re burned out, you’re burned out.”

To believe this is one thing, but to act on it is another. For years, surveys have found that American workers tend not to use all of their vacation days. And according to NordVPN Teams, a provider of virtual private network technology that is important to remote work setups, the stay-at-home work force created by lockdowns and office closures put in more hours on the job than before the pandemic.


[h=3]ADVERTISEMENT[/h]

What’s the problem? In part, it may be a sociocultural residue of the industrial age, which emphasized a certain “visible busyness,” intertwined with Max Weber’s “Protestant Work Ethic” theory of divine toil, suggests John Fitch, the author with Max Frenzel of the 2020 book “Time Off.” They argue that the time has come for workaholics and productivity junkies (and the rest of us) to be as deliberate, thoughtful and creative about taking breaks as they are about their jobs. And that is about more than just using up vacation days, Mr. Fitch said in an interview: “We want to expand the connotation of time off.” Specifically, he and Mr. Frenzel recommend cultivating a “rest ethic.”

Your biggest obstacle to getting time off is probably you: It can be hard to give yourself that permission to do nothing when there’s just so much to do. Consider, however, that Jeff Bezos, Amazon’s founder and chief executive, has said he sets aside “puttering time” every morning before taking any calls or meetings — basically carving out a scheduled chunk of do-nothing time. Are you really that much busier than him?

[h=2]Breaks as ‘ruthless pragmatism’[/h]

The point isn’t just that it’s nice to goof off every so often — it’s that it’s necessary. And that’s true even if your ultimate goal is doing better work: Downtime allows the brain to make new connections and better decisions. Multiple studies have found that sustained mental attention without breaks is depleting, leading to inferior performance and decision-making.

In short, the prefrontal cortex — where goal-oriented and executive-function thinking goes on — can get worn down, potentially resulting in “decision fatigue.” A variety of research finds that even simple remedies like a walk in nature or a nap can replenish the brain and ultimately improve mental performance.


[h=3]ADVERTISEMENT[/h]

These findings aren’t just limited to academic studies. In his recent book “Richer, Wiser, Happier,” the veteran financial journalist William Green draws on many hours of interviews with highly successful investors, and, as you’d expect, a recurring theme is that these people tend to work hard, and outthink, out-research and out-hustle the crowd.

But a counterintuitive subtheme also emerges: How seriously his subjects tend to take breaks, time off and make space in their lives for definitive distance from the all-day, every-day 21st century work cycle. Many — including Charlie Munger, Warren Buffett’s longtime collaborator — make a point to carve out time for quiet and contemplation. For Mr. Munger, that means ignoring up-to-the-second market news and crowd noise and instead exercising extreme patience.

For another one of Mr. Green’s interviewees, Laura Geritz, the chief executive at the firm Rondure Global Advisors, it means taking time to sit by a stream and journal. Developing “a regular meditation practice,” Mr. Green notes, has become “a mission-critical habit for many successful investors.”

This isn’t an afterthought or a hobby or a personal wellness tactic, Mr. Green said in an interview. It’s a reflection of the “ruthless pragmatism” that made his subjects successful in the first place — in the eternal hunt for an edge, they found their rest ethic. It’s almost a “countercultural” move, Mr. Green said. “I don’t think you have deep thought without structuring your life this way,” he said, at a time when everybody is constantly pinged and reacting to short-term stimuli.


[h=3]ADVERTISEMENT[/h]

Similarly, Mr. Fitch and Mr. Frenzel point out in their book that famous athletes like LeBron James take rest and recovery quite seriously, treating it as part of their regimen, not as an escape from it. The same should be true for many professionals and knowledge workers, Mr. Fitch said. Too many managers and workers are stuck in a dated mind-set that prizes long hours over all else. “Quantity of input doesn’t matter,” Mr. Fitch argues. “It’s quality of output.”

[h=2]Microdosing relaxation[/h]

The good news is that at least some companies are starting to take breaks seriously. For starters, Mr. Fitch said, some are acknowledging that unlimited paid time off, a popular gesture among employers who have tried to address the issue, doesn’t really do the trick. It can end up feeling like just another responsibility, and nobody wants to be the employee who takes the most days off.

Lately, companies including LinkedIn and Roblox have experimented with mandatory vacation for all or most employees in the form of “spring break” periods. Actions like these that emphasize the value of time off represent a “profound” shift, Mr. Fitch said. He and Mr. Frenzel, both tech entrepreneurs, are tinkering with a software tool that would help human resources departments prod workers to take days off.

Still, those companies are outliers, and most of us will have to take the initiative on an individual level. Given the natural resistance to downtime that many of us evidently feel, it might make sense to start small — find a gateway drug equivalent to taking time off. Or, to use Mr. Fitch’s related metaphor, try microdosing breaks.

One obvious place to start? Unplugging. The dream of a weekslong “digital detox” may not be practical, but consider the “technology shabbat” strategy — taking one day a week off from technology — promoted by the writer and filmmaker Tiffany Shlain, most recently in her book “24/6.”

If that’s too much, narrow it to completely unplugging from work, like not checking business email. Or start even more micro. Saundra Dalton-Smith, a doctor and the author of “Sacred Rest,” distinguishes among various kinds of necessary rest — not just the physical but the creative and mental as well. She has suggested, among other easy tricks, simply closing your eyes for a few moments in the middle of your work day to combat sensory overload.

In his book, Mr. Green recounts the example of Ken Shubin Stein, who trained as a medical doctor, made a fortune as a hedge fund manager and returned to medicine to work with Covid-19 patients at the height of the pandemic. Mr. Shubin Stein had worked out a careful system to avoid making decisions when he was hungry, angry or tired, but that was challenging in the middle of a crisis. He still managed “small doses of meditation,” even if it meant ducking into the bathroom and doing breathing exercises for a moment.

[h=2]What to do next[/h]

For some, the advice to simply unplug or “do nothing” feels like a dead end; you need something to fill that space, or you just end up ruminating about work all over again. Mr. Fitch recommends an exercise called “More of, less of” — periodically taking a chunk of time to list both what you want more of and less of in your life. It’s a “higher altitude” analysis to pull you out of the day-to-day rut of reacting to other people’s stimuli and help you focus on what you need to create, and get rid of, in your life.

Similarly, if you add to your routine a simple walk around the block to clear your head, make sure you really clear it. Spending the whole time checking social media and monitoring your step count is not a quality break. Leave your phone behind, and make a point to notice something new and different on every walk. Turning the walk into a game ensures that your mind is engaged with the world rather than brooding about the work you’re supposedly taking a break from.

But wait — don’t such ideas sound kind of like another form of work? More goal-oriented tasks intended to boost productivity in the long run? Is developing a rest ethic ultimately another job? Perhaps so. But then again, maybe that’s the only language the unhealthily work-obsessed really understand.


Thank you for your support. Want to share The New York Times? Friends and family can enjoy unlimited digital access to our journalism with this special offer.


What do you think? Should companies nudge workers to take vacation time? How? Let us know: dealbook@nytimes.com.


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Andrew Ross Sorkin, Founder/Editor-at-Large, New York @andrewrsorkin
Jason Karaian, Editor, London @jkaraian
Sarah Kessler, Deputy Editor, Chicago @sarahfkessler
Michael J. de la Merced, Reporter, London @m_delamerced
Lauren Hirsch, Reporter, New York @LaurenSHirsch
Ephrat Livni, Reporter, Washington D.C. @el72champs

 

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The Amazon write up is fascinating. Imagine getting that stock at $5/share after the dotcom crash! Or $18 at the IPO. Just $1000 worth!
 

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The Amazon write up is fascinating. Imagine getting that stock at $5/share after the dotcom crash! Or $18 at the IPO. Just $1000 worth!


Nuts..



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Global Market Comments
May 31, 2021
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:
(A TRIBUTE TO A TRUE VETERAN)
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A Tribute to a True VeteranLast year found me on an obscure, deserted ridge in the Solomon Islands in a remote corner of the South Pacific. The jungle was lush and malarial mosquitos alighted in clouds. I was looking over the capital city of Honiara on the main island whose name is honored by all Marine Corps. veterans:

Guadalcanal.

I had to hold back the tears as I dug through the foxhole on Hanekin’s Ridge occupied by my Uncle Mitch during one of the most violent hand-to-hand battles of WWII. I found dozens of 6.5 mm Japanese Arisaka copper-jacketed bullets, along with an assortment of unexploded hand grenades, mortar shells, and 30 caliber machine gun casings.

I repeated the same at the base of Hill 27, where my then 19-year-old father fought a similar pitched battle. The battle was later chronicled in the 1998 movie The Thin Red Line. His suffering had to be immense. The reason he stayed in California is that visits to his native Brooklyn, NY, triggered his malaria. He never talked about the war.


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Gingerly Handing a Live Japanese Grenade
Today is Veteran’s Day in the United States.

I’ll be putting on my faded Marine Corp fatigues, with gold railroad track bars on my shoulders and navy wings over my pocket, and lead the hometown parade.


Since job prospects for high school graduates in rural Pennsylvania were poor in 1936, Mitch walked 200 miles to the nearest Marine Corps recruiting station in Baltimore.

After basic training, he spent five years rotating between duty in China and the Philippines, manning the fabled gunboats up the Yangtze River.

When WWII broke out, he was a seasoned sergeant in charge of a machine gun platoon. That put him with the seventh regiment of the First Marine Division at Guadalcanal in October 1942. He missed the notorious Bataan Death March by weeks.

When the Japanese counterattacked, Mitch was put in charge of four Browning .30 caliber water-cooled machine guns and 33 men, dug in at trenches on a ridge above Henderson Field.


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A Zero Fighter Wing
The Japanese launched massive waves of suicide attackers in a pouring tropical rainstorm all night long, frequently breaking through the lines and engaging in fierce hand-to-hand combat.

If the position fell, the line would have been broken, leading to a loss of the airfield, and possibly the entire battle. WWII in the Pacific would have lasted two more years.

After the first hour, all of Mitch’s men were either dead or severely wounded, shot or slashed with samurai swords. So, Mitch fired one gun until it was empty, then scurried over to the next, and then the next. In between human waves of banzai attackers, he ran back and reloaded all the guns.
To more easily pitch hand grenades, he cut the arms off his green herringbone fatigues. When the Japanese launched their final assault, and then retreated, he picked up a 50-pound Browning, cradled it in his arms, and ran down the hill after them, firing all the way, and burning all the skin off his left forearm.
Mitch’s commanding officer, Col. Herman H. Hanneken, heard the guns firing all night from the field below. He was shocked when he visited the position the next morning, finding Mitch alone in front of a twisted sea of 2,000 Japanese bodies.

Mitch was awarded the Congressional Medal of Honor by General “Chesty” Puller at the Melbourne Cricket Grounds in Australia a few months later.


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The Medal of Honor
After the war, Mitch, now a captain, was handed the plum of all Marine Corp jobs, acting as the liaison officer with Hollywood. He provided the planes, ships, Marines, and beaches needed to make the great classic war films.

He got to know stars like John Wayne, Lee Marvin, and yes, even Elvis Presley. The iconic fictional hero in the 1949 film, Sands of Iwo Jima, the quiet, but strong Sergeant John M. Striker, was modeled after him.

Tradition dictated that all military officers saluted Mitch, even five-star generals, and he was given a seat to attend every presidential inauguration from FDR on. When Mitch became too old to attend, I took that seat. Pacific countries issued stamps with his image, and Mattel sold a special GI Joe in his likeness.

When Mitch got older and infirm, I used my captain’s rank to escort him on diplomatic missions overseas to attend important events, like the D-Day 40th anniversary in Normandy.

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The Top of Hill 27
Whenever Mitch was in town, he would join me for lunch with some of my history-oriented hedge fund clients and a more humble and self-effacing guy you never met. He occasionally scratched the massive scars on his forearm, which still bothered him after a half-century.

I used to confess to my fellow traders present, “It makes what we do for a living look pretty feeble, doesn’t it?”


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What’s Left of a Marine Corsair
Mitch passed away in 2003 while he was working as a technical consultant to the pre-production of the HBO series, The Pacific, an absolute must-see for all armchair historians.

The principal character in the series is an amalgam of Mitch and John Basilone, another Medal of Honor winner at Guadalcanal. Basilone later died leading a charge on Iwo Jima, so his name was used in the film for dramatic effect.

The funeral in Riverside, California was marked by a lone eagle, which continuously circled overhead. According to the Indian shaman present, this only occurs at the services for great warriors.

A dozen living Medal of Honor winners accompanied the casket. Boy, the Marines can sure put on a great funeral, perhaps because they have had so much practice.

When I get back from my parade, I’ll take out the samurai sword Mitch captured on that fateful day, a 1692 Muneshige, the hilt still scarred with 30 caliber slugs, and give it a ritual polishing in sesame oil and powdered deer horn, as samurai have done for millennia.

While in Guadalcanal, I managed to dig up several dog tags from Marines missing in action that were still legible after 78 years in the ground. The Marine Historical Division in Quantico Station Virginia is tracing them so I can return them to the families.

To read more about the First Marine Division’s campaign during the war, please read the excellent paperback, The Island: A History of the First Marine Division on Guadalcanal by Herbert Laing Merillat, which you can buy by clicking here.
To buy the DVD, The Pacific, click here.

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Mitchel Paige
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[h=2]
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[/h][h=2]Henderson’s Ridge in 1942[/h]
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[h=2]Hanneken's Ridge Today[/h]
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[h=2]A 30-Caliber Machine Gun[/h]
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[h=2]A US Wildcat Fighter Crash Landed[/h]
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[h=2]Marines Who Didn’t Make It Back[/h]​


Quote of the Day
"No better friend, nor worse enemy," says the motto of First Division of the US Marine Corps.

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June 1, 2021

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Naomi Osaka said media obligations at the French Open could hurt her well-being.Pete Kiehart for The New York Times


[h=2]Mental health at the workplace (or tennis court)[/h]

The tennis star Naomi Osaka withdrew from the French Open yesterday, citing concern for her well-being, one day after officials threatened to expel her for not wanting to participate in news conferences. To us, this raises a number of questions, including: What’s to be done when one’s job includes tasks that pose risks to mental health?

Mental health is increasingly seen as a workplace issue. Employers have been paying more attention to their workers’ well-being. And athletes are speaking out more frequently about their own mental health. Osaka has said that she had suffered from depression since 2018, which she said were exacerbated by the pressure of engaging with the media.

The challenge is when that’s part of the job. Tournament organizers fined Osaka $15,000 after she skipped her first post-match news conference, and insisted she fulfill her media obligations. (She said she was willing to accept those fines.) That raises similar questions as other instances in which employers and workers disagree over matters tied to mental health, whether that be returns to the office or long working hours. Are there things companies can — or should — offer employees to help them cope?


[h=3]ADVERTISEMENT[/h]

Osaka’s move drew support, including from fellow athletes — “You shouldn’t ever have to make a decision like this — but so damn impressive taking the high road when the powers that be don’t protect their own,” tweeted Steph Curry — and from Nike, one of her sponsors, who told DealBook in a statement, “We support her and recognize her courage in sharing her own mental health experience.”


  • Giles Moretton, the president of the French Federation of Tennis, called Osaka’s withdrawal “unfortunate” and wished her a quick recovery. He added, “We remain very committed to all athletes’ well-being and to continually improving every aspect of players’ experience in our tournament, including with the media.”
  • Others noted that athletes also benefit from media exposure. Before Osaka withdrew, Rafael Nadal said that without the media, “probably we will not be the athletes that we are today.”

What do you think of Osaka’s decision? Email us at dealbook@nytimes.com.

[h=3]HERE’S WHAT’S HAPPENING[/h]

The O.E.C.D raises its economic forecast, citing vaccinations and stimulus. The organization now predicts the global economy will grow 5.8 percent in 2021, up from the 4.2 percent it projected in December, amid inoculations in advanced economies and U.S. stimulus spending. (Even India is showing signs of economic recovery.) But it expects that rate to slow next year after governments wind down their aid programs.

Air traffic hits a pandemic peak. Nearly two million passengers passed through security checkpoints in U.S. airports on Friday, a level last hit in March 2020. But that has also meant a sharp rise in the number of unruly passengers, particularly those unwilling to comply with face mask mandates.


[h=3]ADVERTISEMENT[/h]

Global finance ministers are set to back a U.S. call for a global minimum corporate tax. Support from 7 nations for the plan is a crucial early win for President Biden, as he pushes for a worldwide floor on taxes on business profits as part of his effort to raise corporate taxes in the U.S.

Biden plans to overhaul U.S. immigration policies. A planning document seen by The Times shows that the White House is working on ways to simplify the immigration process and increase quotas, including for work visas. If it succeeds, it would go beyond reversing Donald Trump’s policies and bring sweeping change to immigration rules — much of which could be accomplished through executive action.

Businesses stay quiet on a failed Texas effort to restrict voting access. An effort by Republican lawmakers to enact some of the strictest voting laws in the nation failed on Sunday, after Democrats walked out of the state capitol. But companies that had openly opposed those efforts have said little — including American Airlines, based in Fort Worth, and Dell, headquartered in Round Rock, both of which declined to comment beyond previous statements — even as Republicans plan to reintroduce the bill at a special session.


[h=2]The benefits and perils of hype[/h]

In a lengthy profile that we devoured over the weekend, The New Yorker traces the arc of Chamath Palihapitiya, the Facebook executive turned investor who has become one of the biggest moguls in the world of SPACs. The article — and a separate Twitter thread needling Palihapitiya — show how an outspoken presence can generate a fortune, but also make someone a huge target for critics.


[h=3]ADVERTISEMENT[/h]

Palihapitiya’s bravado helped launch the SPAC boom, The New Yorker argues, as he applied his innate showmanship to the necessary process of selling blank-check funds to Wall Street and mainstream investors alike.


  • It helped him win over converts, according to the article: In a meeting to pitch his first SPAC’s plan to merge with Virgin Galactic, one listener rattled off a list of criticisms. Palihapitiya responded by calling the man an “idiot” (augmented by a few expletives) and asked, “Have you even looked at the prospectus?” An audience member later called the outburst “brilliant.”
  • That braggadocio and careful stoking of his celebrity allowed him to raise billions for venture capital funds — and then pivot to SPACs when he needed a change in strategy (and image). “The returns that we’ve generated — you can’t B.S. those,” he told The New Yorker.

Still, Palihapitiya isn’t lacking for critics, including those who say his claims about SPACs are inflated. The latest emerged over the weekend, when Christopher Bloomstran, the investment chief of Semper Augustus Investments Group, took to Twitter to poke holes in Palihapitiya’s latest letter to investors.


  • Bloomstran noted errors in counting years in a time period and in quantifying the S&P 500’s return for last year, and raised questions about Palihapitiya’s comparisons of his own firm’s returns to those of Berkshire Hathaway. “Perhaps there’s room at your shop for a fact checker?” Bloomstran concluded. (So far, Palihapitiya has answered two of those criticisms.)


[h=2]The E.E.O.C. clarifies workplace vaccination rules[/h]

At the urging of business groups, the Equal Employment Opportunity Commission on Friday made clear how companies can issue vaccine mandates to workers coming back to the office, and what incentives those employers can offer to promote inoculation.

Companies can require vaccines only of employees returning to the workplace, the E.E.O.C.’s note on Friday said. But doing so still counts as a mandate, so companies must make the same considerations that companywide vaccine requirements would entail, like accommodations for employees who can’t receive the vaccine.


  • “I do think it’s important that the E.E.O.C. addressed this because I worry that some employers were sort of going down the wrong path, and thinking that it wasn’t that big of a deal to have a vaccination requirement,” Jessica Kuester, an employment benefits lawyer at the law firm Ogletree Deakins, told DealBook.

Employers can also offer vaccine incentives, the E.E.O.C. clarified. That includes enticements like giving workers paid time off to get vaccinated, as well as rewards for employees who show proof of inoculation, like the $75 bonusthat Walmart is offering. Companies have also been offering the opportunity to go mask-free at the office as a type of inducement, though several aren’t asking for proof of vaccination, perhaps as a concession to practicality. (“Are you really going to go around and, when you see an employee without a mask, are you going to run back to H.R. and verify that that person really was fully vaccinated?” Kuester said.)


[h=2]Strong support at Amazon for a racial equity audit[/h]

Amazon shareholders rejected a demand at the e-commerce giant’s annual meeting last week that the company conduct a comprehensive review of how its practices are affecting ethnic minorities. But they did so by the slimmest of margins — and progressive investors are claiming some measure of victory.

About 44 percent of votes cast supported the so-called racial equity audit,according to Amazon’s tally of the results. That’s among the strongest showings for such a measure this year; a similar proposal at JPMorgan Chase, for instance, garnered 39 percent support.

Proponents of racial equity audits said it was a sign of progress. The New York State comptroller, Thomas DiNapoli, who was behind the Amazon proposal, noted that if Jeff Bezos’s 14 percent stake had been excluded from voting, the measure would have won majority support. “Shareholders sent a loud message to Amazon that they want the company to do more to address racial diversity, equity and inclusion,” DiNapoli said in a statement.


  • Dieter Waizenegger, the executive director of CtW Investment Group, which put up similar proposals at several big banks, told DealBook that the vote “is an apt culmination of calls for independent reassurances that companies actually follow up on their pledges to became more racially equitable.”

Corporate chiefs are paying attention. JPMorgan’s Jamie Dimon criticized such audits at a House hearing last week as cumbersome and expensive. But Citigroup’s Jane Fraser said that such an exam is “something that we’re looking at again, given it was brought up by our shareholders.”


Thank you for your support. Want to share The New York Times? Friends and family can enjoy unlimited digital access to our journalism with this special offer.

[h=3]THE SPEED READ[/h]

Deals


  • AMC raised $230 million by selling shares to Mudrick Capital, taking advantage of its surge in popularity among meme-stock investors. (MarketWatch)
  • KKR and Clayton Dubilier & Rice agreed to buy the corporate software company Cloudera for $5.3 billion. (Cloudera)
  • The two families who control Volkswagen’s largest shareholder are said to be considering taking a stake in Porsche if it were to be spun out of the company. (Reuters)

Politics and policy


  • Why Covid-era rules on cannabis and telemedicine might outlast the pandemic. (Politico)
  • Lawmakers are focused on bringing high-speed internet to remote rural areas — but more people who need broadband live in cities. (NYT)
  • China will now allow couples to have three children, up from two. (NYT)

Tech


  • Current and former Oracle employees have reportedly complained about a “culture of fear” inside the tech giant’s fast-growing cloud services division. (Insider)
  • Chinese stock-trading apps are embracing cryptocurrency services as they look to expand overseas. (CNBC)

Best of the rest


  • “How the World Ran Out of Everything” (NYT)
  • Does the controversy-plagued AstraZeneca vaccine have a future? (FT)
  • Food companies like Ben & Jerry’s are still waiting to roll out new products featuring C.B.D. — as soon as it’s legal to do so. (Bloomberg)


Thanks for reading! We’ll see you tomorrow.

We’d like your feedback! Please email thoughts and suggestions to dealbook@nytimes.com.


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Andrew Ross Sorkin, Founder/Editor-at-Large, New York @andrewrsorkin
Jason Karaian, Editor, London @jkaraian
Sarah Kessler, Deputy Editor, Chicago @sarahfkessler
Michael J. de la Merced, Reporter, London @m_delamerced
Lauren Hirsch, Reporter, New York @LaurenSHirsch
Ephrat Livni, Reporter, Washington D.C. @el72champs

 

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Global Market Comments
June 1, 2021
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:
(WELCOME TO THE WONDERFUL WORLD OF OPTIONS),
(WHAT IS AN OPTION? - THE BASICS)

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Note to Readers: Over the next ten trading days, you will be receiving my options trading boot camp. That's because this week, I’ll be knocking off from my daily routine to dive into some deep research pieces. The following week, I’ll be hosting my June 8-10 Traders & Investors Summit, to which you will receive an invitation shortly. Enjoy.


Welcome to the Wonderful World of OptionsHi there, I’m John Thomas, the Mad Hedge Fund Trader. Welcome to my trading desk and your new job of attaining financial independence.

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So, get started on your homework, learn how the markets function, and figure out how to trade. Soon, you’ll have the unfair advantage in the markets that you deserve.

I have issued more than 2,000 trade alerts over the past 12 years so I have a pretty good idea what works for followers.

Every trade alert I issue gives you the choice of buying a stock, an exchange-traded fund (ETF), or an option spread.

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However, those who used option spreads earned the most money with the least risk over time. I know when some of you hear the word “option,” you want to run a mile.

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Better yet, if you implement the options strategies and disciplines that I will teach you, you can tilt the chance of making money overwhelmingly in your favor.

Working together is going to be fun. I have a chair right here for you, so sit down, let’s get down to it, and put on some serious money-making positions.


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It's Not That Hard to Figure Out


What is an Option? - The BasicsA stock option is a contract that gives the buyer the right, but not the obligation, to buy or sell a certain number of shares in a company at a specified time at a fixed price.

There are two kinds of options, and they are always defined using the same basic terms.

The terms “Calls” and “Puts” tell you whether you have the right to buy or sell the shares of the underlying company.

The Ticker Symbol tells you which company’s shares the options are on. The ticker symbol for Apple is (AAPL).

The Expiration Date is when the contract ceases to be valid.

The Strike Price indicated the price at which you have the right to buy or sell shares.

For example, if you buy one of the Apple June 17, 2016 $110 calls, it gives you the right to BUY 100 Apple shares at $110/share any time on or before June 17, 2016. If Apple shares then rise, you make a profit. This is a bullish bet.


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Quote of the DayIn the words of United States Army General, Creighton Abrams, "When eating an elephant, take one bite at a time."

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TOGETHER WITH
LISTEN TO TODAY'S PODCAST AVAILABLE AT 8AM ON:
Top News
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The latest OPEC+ gathering takes place via videoconference today as pandemic travel continues to prevent the usual meeting spot in Vienna. The group is now holding monthly meetings, giving it more immediate power to make decisions on current oil market conditions, as well as room to maneuver. It's also a signal that OPEC+ producers are wary about how things might play out in the months as they try to balance expectations of a recovery in demand against a possible supply increase from Iran, the world's fourth-largest crude producer.

Backdrop: OPEC+ decided in April to return 2.1M barrels per day to the market from May to July, anticipating rising global demand despite surging COVID cases in India. Since the announcement, crude prices have risen from $60 toward the $70 level, and are up more than 30% in 2021 alone. Oil has still been trading in the tight $60-70 range for the past three months as talks continue on the future of the JCPOA (a deal revival would lead to higher Iranian output). WTI crude futures (CL1:COM) climbed another 3.1% overnight to $68.34/bbl ahead of the OPEC meeting.

Russia is expected to "seek to accelerate the pace of the ramp up" in output, but the Saudis may call for "keeping the more conservative increase given the high COVID case counts in India and Japan, as well as the looming return of Iranian exports in the back half of the year," said RBC Capital Markets, outlining that OPEC+ is set to "stick with its cautious production return schedule." The group is also unlikely to decide on output policy beyond July, since the outlook for Iran is not yet clear and OPEC has another meeting planned for June 24. Yesterday, OPEC's Joint Technical Committee revised global supply down by 200K bpd, and now expects a deficit of 1.4M bpd in 2021 (from 1.2M bpd previously), meaning inventories will decline faster than expected.

Thought bubble: Western oil majors are under pressure to cut carbon emissions faster, especially after the courtroom and boardroom defeats seen last week at Exxon (NYSE:XOM), Chevron (NYSE:CVX) and Shell (RDS.A, RDS.B). New energy policies proposed by the Biden administration are also discouraging the production of fossil fuels, meaning more business for OPEC+ and the likes of Saudi Aramco (ARMCO), Adnoc and Rosneft (OTCPK:RNFTF). "It looks like the West will have to rely more on what it calls 'hostile regimes' for its supply," joked a high-level executive from Russia's Gazprom (OTC:GZPMF).

While it will take time to boost America's renewable power grid - which could lead to higher oil prices in the interim - some say the U.S. may have the last laugh. If fossil fuel-dependent economies fail to shift away from oil and gas in the future, they could be susceptible to economic instability and stagnation in the decades to come. However, many wealthy countries have still outsourced a large chunk of their carbon pollution overseas for quite some time and that could continue in a future world where price differentials play out in the energy mix. (12 comments)
Stocks
Traders are returning from Memorial Day with renewed optimism as stock index futures point higher following the holiday weekend. Dow futures are up 0.5%, while contracts linked to the S&P 500 and Nasdaq ahead by 0.4%. More records? While the benchmark S&P 500 is starting June after notching its fourth consecutive monthly gain, the inflation debate continues to remain in the headlines.

Quote: "Overall, given the market’s reaction to [Friday]'s PCE release, investor concerns about inflation may have been exaggerated - or perhaps already priced in," said Chris Hussey, a managing director at Goldman Sachs. "Consensus may be building that the inflation we are seeing today is 'good' inflation - the kind of rise in prices that accompanies accelerating growth, not a monetary policy mistake."

Many are still concerned about the risks of a market crash. Short interest in SPY recently hit its highest since December and the CBOE Skew Index rose to the highest level since August 2018. Hedge funds have also slashed their holdings in 20 of the 23 commodities tracked in the Bloomberg Commodity Index by the most since November, while the extreme volatility in crypto and tech stocks has sparked worries of a broader selloff.

Up next? May's non-farm payrolls report, set to be released on Friday, is likely to be the next catalyst for the markets. Depending on the figure, it could support stocks or change perceptions of the economy's strength or coming stimulus measures. Following the employment number, investors will be watching the Fed's latest comments about inflation at an FOMC meeting scheduled for mid-June.
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Economy
President Biden unveiled his first budget before the weekend that detailed $6T in spending for FY2022, including two infrastructure proposals, an increase in military resources, as well as domestic programs like scientific research and renewable energy. In total, the plan would raise federal spending to $8.2T per year by 2031, meaning annual deficits of over $1.3T (and $1.8T in 2022). While the plan is only a blueprint for the administration's fiscal priorities - and is subject to Congressional debate - other policy promises that weren't included in the budget may add to the weighty costs: student loan forgiveness, lowering the Medicare age to 60, creating a public healthcare option and reducing prescription drug prices.

Bigger picture: Long gone are the days of austerity conversations, the Tea Party movements or the balanced budget talk that made some political brownie points. In fact, the U.S. has already returned to the record debt-to-GDP ratio last seen in the aftermath of World War II. One of the biggest fears among stock market investors is if the spending will lead to a sustained rise in inflation, which is hard to get rid of and would require the attention - and possible intervention - of the Federal Reserve.

In the economic textbooks of yesteryear, big deficits were said to lead to price pressures and a possible overheating of the economy. However, a growing number of economists and the White House feel that the current circumstances call for a different economic plan, citing historically low borrowing costs, the need to get millions of Americans back to work and guaranteeing that the nation remains competitive with China. The Fed has also signaled it wouldn't raise rates before 2024, while investors are still eager to scoop up U.S. government debt and Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has argued that any risk of inflation and overheating can be controlled.

Quote: "The president's budget improves the long-term fiscal outlook because his policies are more than paid for over the long run," Acting Budget Director Shalanda Young told reporters on Friday. "Failing to make these investments at a time of such low interest costs would be a historic missed opportunity that would leave future generations worse off."

How much is too much? There's no magic number or level for when a government's debt begins to hurt its economy. As long as interest rates stay low and the U.S. can borrow cheaply, the country can handle a much heavier debt load than was once thought possible. However, the federal debt cannot grow faster than the economy indefinitely. Once confidence erodes in Treasuries or the dollar's reserve currency status is threatened, borrowing can get more expensive and servicing that debt would cancel any budgetary forecasts that were made in a previous lending environment. The same scenario could happen if the U.S. would be also forced to raise rates as inflation heats up, or by private borrowing getting crowded out, though we could still be a long way away from that point despite all the doom and gloom. (369 comments)
Covid
Employers can require their workers to get vaccinated against COVID-19, according to the latest update to the guidance issued by the U.S. Equal Employment Opportunity Commission. The mandatory vaccination requirement applies to “all employees physically entering the workplace," with only a few exceptions permitted under law, such as medical reasons, the workforce is unionized, or if taking it is against a "sincerely held" religious belief. Employers must also comply with the reasonable accommodation provisions of the ADA and Title VII of the Civil Rights Act of 1964 and other EEO considerations.

Better to use carrots? Companies can also offer incentives to get workers vaccinated, "as long as the incentives are not coercive,” a move likely to open up a floodgate of lawsuits according to some experts. "What is 'coercive' is unclear because, just as with anything else, one person's view of what is a coercive incentive is not the same as another person's," said Helen Rella, an employment attorney at a New York-based law firm. The revised EEOC guidance was issued as the U.S. COVID-19 immunization drive reached a major milestone with more than 50% of the population getting at least one dose.

Meanwhile, the World Health Organization is renaming coronavirus variants after letters of the Greek alphabet, instead of the place of their first discovery. The four types of coronavirus known by the public as the U.K., South Africa, Brazil and India variants have now been assigned the Greek letters Alpha, Beta, Gamma and Delta. Other variants of interest will continue down the alphabet.

Quote: "No country should be stigmatized for detecting and reporting variants," WHO epidemiologist Maria Van Kerkhove declared. "To avoid this and to simplify public communications, WHO encourages national authorities, media outlets and others to adopt these new labels." (634 comments)
Global
Married couples in China are now allowed to have up to three children, according to the Communist Party's Politburo, as the nation looks to mitigate risks to its long-term economic prospects. The policy change will come with "supportive measures, which will be conducive to improving our country's population structure, fulfilling the country's strategy of actively coping with an ageing population and maintaining the advantage, endowment of human resources", per the state-run Xinhua News Agency. The government is also set to gradually raise the national retirement age, but did not provide further details.

Bigger picture: Data published several weeks ago showed China's population growth expanding at its slowest pace since the 1950s, with the numbers on mainland China increasing 5.38% to 1.41B. The working-age population - people aged 15 to 59 - was on the decline as well, after hitting a 2011 peak of 925M, while the fertility rate was only 1.3 children per woman during 2020, missing a target of 1.8 that Beijing had set in 2016 (after replacing its one-child policy). China's statistics agency even took an unusual step by announcing that the population did grow in 2020, but gave no total, prompting some to speculate it was an effort to pacify investors and corporations.

At issue is whether the world's second-largest economy may already be in irreversible population decline before accumulating the household wealth of G7 nations. While China has eased birth limits, couples have been put off by the high cost of living (especially in cities), cramped housing (many share apartments with their parents) and career choices (job discrimination faced by mothers). Childcare is also expensive, maternity leave is short and most single mothers are excluded from medical insurance or social welfare payments.

Investing angle: Consumer companies seen potentially gaining from less restrictive family planning policies include Hasbro (NASDAQ:HAS), Mattel (NASDAQ:MAT), Danone (OTCQX:DANOY), Nestle (OTCPK:NSRGY), Procter & Gamble (NYSE:PG), Kimberly-Clark (NYSE:KMB) and Reckitt Benckiser (OTCPK:RBGLY). Asian companies such as kid-focused Goodbaby International (OTC:GBBYF), Japanese baby bottle producer Pigeon Corp. (OTCPK:pIGEF) and diaper maker Unicharm (OTCPK:UNCHF) may also benefit. Disney (NYSE:DIS) is getting some further attention, while carmakers that sell to the Chinese market may get a boost: SAIC-GM (NYSE:GM), Volkswagen (OTCPK:VWAGY), Geely (OTCPK:GELYF), Li Auto (NASDAQ:LI), Nio (NYSE:NIO), XPeng (NYSE:XPEV), Guangzhou Automobile (OTCPK:GNZUY), BYD Company (OTCPK:BYDDF), Great Wall Motor (OTCPK:GWLLF) and Brilliance China Automotive (OTCPK:BCAUF). Add your own ideas in the comments section. (323 comments)
What else is happening...
White House gives Republicans a week to show infrastructure progress

KKR, Clayton Dubilier & Rice near deal to buy Cloudera (NYSE:CLDR) - WSJ.

Supply chain pressures are leading to Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) price increases.

Intel (NASDAQ:INTC) repeats forecast that chip shortage could last several years.

EU to lift quarantine restrictions for vaccinated on July 1 - Guardian.

China's factory activity slips, consumer spending holds up.

Quiet Place Part II leads pandemic-best box office weekend.

Elliott said to question the future of GlaxoSmithKline's (NYSE:GSK) CEO.

Are they enough? Texas legislature passes power grid reforms.

Barron's touts 10 ways to cash in on shortages in materials, labor.​
TOGETHER WITH
Today's Markets
In Asia, Japan -0.2%. Hong Kong +1.2%. China +0.3%. India flat.
In Europe, at midday, London +1%. Paris +0.8%. Frankfurt +1.5%.
Futures at 6:20, Dow +0.5%. S&P +0.4%. Nasdaq +0.4%. Crude +3.1% to $68.34. Gold +0.1% at $1907.90. Bitcoin -1.7% to $36316.
Ten-year Treasury Yield +2 bps to 1.62%
Today's Economic Calendar
 

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A new study asserts that the parent company of “Spongebob” saved billions in U.S. taxes through international tax shelters.Paramount Animation


[h=2]Of tax shelters and ‘Transformers’[/h]

Our Times colleague Ed Lee, who wrote about a study finding that ViacomCBS used overseas tax shelters to avoid paying billions in U.S. taxes, goes deeper into the story for us:

Every multinational takes advantage of tax shelters, but the way ViacomCBS does it is particularly fascinating. The company behind the “SpongeBob,” “Mission Impossible” and “Transformers” franchises has avoided paying $4 billion in U.S. corporate income tax since 2002, according to a study from a Dutch nonprofit.

The report focused on how ViacomCBS exploited mismatches between tax codes across different regions when licensing its TV shows and films — made mostly in the U.S. — overseas. The arrangements appear to be legal; ViacomCBS has disputed the study as “deeply flawed and misleading” and said that it “fulfills its tax obligations in all 180-plus countries and the territories” in which it operates, and that all its revenues “are fully taxed in relevant jurisdictions around the world, including the United States, as required by applicable law.”

One of the study’s authors, Maarten Hietland, told me that “no research has specifically focused on the role of companies heavily relying on I.P.,” referring to intellectual property. Unlike companies that rely on physical goods, a media business like ViacomCBS can transfer the foreign rights to “Transformers” like flipping a switch.


[h=3]ADVERTISEMENT[/h]

The Trump administration tried to tackle the issue in its 2017 overhaul of the tax code, but ViacomCBS was able to get around some of those rules through an even more elaborate system. (The Biden administration is taking its own crackat the problem.)

Here’s how one tactic worked, according to the study:


  • Viacom shifted international licensing rights from its Dutch subsidiary to its British subsidiary. The transfer — essentially a sale from one ViacomCBS subsidiary to another — created a tax benefit, since the transaction was worth $1.8 billion, a sum that could be amortized over many years.

When it comes to clever tax plans and deals, we tend to think of instances like John Malone’s intricately designed projects — but we often don’t consider the many smaller transactions that find their way around such systems. And $4 billion is still a lot of money, even if it’s happening in million-dollar increments.

[h=3]HERE’S WHAT’S HAPPENING[/h]

The S.E.C. accused Elon Musk of violating a settlement, letters show. In correspondence to Tesla in 2019 and 2020, the agency said the company hadn’t followed court-ordered procedures for preapproving Musk’s tweets about solar panel production and the carmaker’s stock price, The Wall Street Journal reports.


[h=3]ADVERTISEMENT[/h]

President Biden suspends Arctic drilling leases. The move to halt drilling in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge in Alaska undoes a signature energy policy of the Trump administration, pending an environmental and legal review. Separately, as oil prices rise, OPEC and Russia agreed to gradually ease production curbs they adopted in April.

European countries issue digital vaccine passports. Seven nations began offering what they call a digital green certificate yesterday to ease travel within the E.U., with the rest of the bloc adopting it by next month. In other inoculation news, Moderna has applied for full U.S. authorization of its vaccine.

A hedge fund flips AMC stock. Mudrick Capital bought $230.5 million worth of newly issued shares in the movie theater chain beloved by internet traders yesterday — and within hours sold them at a profit. The reason: Mudrick believed AMC’s shares, which rose 23 percent yesterday alone, are overvalued.

Meet the new Warner Bros. When the deal merging AT&T’s WarnerMedia and Discovery closes, the newly combined business will be called Warner Bros. Discovery. Meanwhile, in a regulatory filing, AT&T spent time defending its initial $85 billion takeover of Time Warner: “The strategy behind the acquisition was sound,” AT&T wrote, going on to list the benefits of the frequently criticized transaction.


[h=3]ADVERTISEMENT[/h]


[h=2]The latest ransomware attack target: meat[/h]

Cybercriminals yesterday forced the meat-processing giant JBS to shutter nine U.S. beef plants and disrupted some of the company’s poultry and pork facilities. It’s another reminder that companies core to the nation’s basic functions remain under threat from ransomware, just weeks after a major gas pipeline was shut for days.

Meat prices are at risk. Bloomberg notes that the U.S. Department of Agriculture was forced to delay releasing wholesale beef and pork prices yesterday. And while JBS said it expected most of its plants to reopen today, analysts warned that even one day’s disruption could “significantly impact” wholesale beef prices.

Russian hackers are suspected in the attack, a White House official said. In the Colonial Pipeline attack, a Russian-speaking gang known as DarkSide took responsibility and disbanded shortly afterward, though the pipeline company paid $4.4 million to recover its data.


  • It isn’t clear whether JBS has paid ransom.


[h=2]Inside At Home’s sales process[/h]

Just over a week after At Home agreed last month to sell itself to the private equity firm Hellman & Friedman for $2.5 billion, the décor superstore’s largest shareholder, CAS Investment Partners, publicly opposed the deal, arguing it was “grossly” undervalued. At the heart of the dispute is how to value a company that got a pandemic bounce, but may soon face a new reality. At Home filed its proxy statement today, offering an in-depth look at how it’s grappling with these dynamics — and DealBook got an early look.


  • At Home has been exploring a sale since 2019, hoping to cull its costs away from the glare of the stock market.


  • The pandemic halted those efforts, and At Home’s stock price plunged below $2 a share. But homebound shoppers pushed up net sales by nearly 50 percent in its third quarter — and its share price rose, too. At Home restarted the sales process in November.


  • In March, when At Home’s stock was trading at around $28 a share, Hellman & Friedman and another unnamed private equity firm jointly bid $32 a share. Talks continued as At Home’s rebound continued — the company twice updated its projections — prompting Hellman & Friedman to raise its offer five times. (The other firm dropped out after bidding surpassed $32.)
  • Hellman finally offered $36 a share, up 17 percent from where At Home’s stock traded before the deal talks leaked. Today, its shares are trading a little above that, likely on shareholders’ hopes of a higher offer.

The question is how much At Home’s business will continue to grow. CAS thinks the company could be worth more than $135 a share by the end of its 2026 fiscal year, and that the right sale price is therefore over $70 a share — a roughly 128 percent premium.


  • But At Home is worried that shoppers will revert to pre-Covid habits. Other retailers whose businesses jumped during the pandemic have disappointed investors: Shares of Home Depot dipped last month despite smashing expectations, and that company declined to provide financial guidance for next year. The Container Store also saw its shares fall last month despite topping expectations, and is similarly withholding guidance.

Meanwhile, At Home is looking for other buyers. As part of the Hellman deal’s go-shop provision, the retailer has reached out to 17 financial sponsors and seven companies. So far, just one — an investment firm — has signed a nondisclosure agreement, though it has yet to make an offer.


[h=2]“I genuflect to no one but science and always, always speak my mind when it comes to public health.”[/h]

— Dr. Anthony Fauci, in an email to the epidemiologist Gregg Gonsalves in March 2020. BuzzFeed News obtained 3,200 pages worth of Fauci’s emails, covering the first part of the pandemic.


[h=2]More on mental health on the tennis court[/h]

Yesterday, we wrote about Naomi Osaka’s decision to withdraw from the French Open, citing concerns for her mental health. The move followed a dispute with tournament officials over Osaka’s bypassing of news conferences, which she had previously said exacerbated her anxiety. It underscored an increasing awareness of mental health in the workplace, and started a conversation about what’s to be done when tasks that pose risks to mental health are part of the job.

DealBook readers had a lot to say; here’s a sample. (They have been edited and condensed for clarity.)


  • “Tournament participants benefit from media exposure, so those who are comfortable with it will do it. For those who are not comfortable with it, forcing them to choose between compromising their health, along with their competitiveness, and withdrawing from participation is just plain wrong.” — John Gerling, Modesto, Calif.


  • “There are lots of things about my job I don’t like, and lots of things I do. If I choose not to do the tasks I don’t like, I lose my job. That’s the way it goes.” — Brian Parker, London


  • “She’s an athlete, not Kim Kardashian. It should have never gotten to the point where she felt it necessary to discuss her depression and anxiety publicly, although I applaud her courage in doing so.” — Julia Griffin, New York


  • “Any endeavor has ‘must have’ and ‘nice to have’ skills. Speaking to the media does not seem a ‘must have’ skill for athletes. Those who don’t want or can’t do it should not be banned from the sports business.” — Bill Perlstein, Rehoboth Beach, Del.


  • “There has to be an alternative option for Osaka to fulfill her obligations. No one should ever have to participate in an activity that they feel is detrimental to their wellbeing.” — Guy Conners, Wake Forest, N.C.


Thank you for your support. Want to share The New York Times? Friends and family can enjoy unlimited digital access to our journalism with this special offer.

[h=3]THE SPEED READ[/h]

Deals


  • As SPACs remain under pressure from regulators and their stock prices sink, they’re finding it harder to find merger partners. And here’s how Michael Milken became a big investor in blank-check funds. (WSJ, Forbes)
  • Etsy agreed to buy Depop, the used-clothing site beloved by Generation Z, for $1.6 billion. (NYT)
  • “I Wrote James Bond Movies. The Amazon-MGM Deal Gives Me Chills.” (NYT Opinion)

Politics and policy


  • Gov. Andrew Cuomo of New York plans to hold a $10,000-a-head fund-raiser this month, despite an investigation into allegations of sexual harassment and abuse of office. (Bloomberg)
  • Randy Quarles, one of the Fed’s top officials, suggested he might stay as a governor after his term as vice chair for supervision ends in October. (NYT)

Tech


  • Amazon unexpectedly changed its terms of service to let customers sue, instead of forcing them into arbitration for disputes. (WSJ)
  • Katerra, the troubled construction start-up backed by SoftBank, is shutting down. (Information)

Best of the rest


  • Try to follow along: Because of a state law that the Legislature ran out of time to change, Tesla needs to ship the vehicles it makes in Texas out of state before it can bring them back to sell. (Drive)
  • Four N.B.A. stars are among the 150 Black and Latino investors backing a $1 billion real-estate project for Harvard. (WSJ)
  • “Can I Ask Co-Workers if They’ve Had the Covid Vaccine?” (NYT Magazine)


Thanks for reading! We’ll see you tomorrow.

We’d like your feedback! Please email thoughts and suggestions to dealbook@nytimes.com.


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Andrew Ross Sorkin, Founder/Editor-at-Large, New York @andrewrsorkin
Jason Karaian, Editor, London @jkaraian
Sarah Kessler, Deputy Editor, Chicago @sarahfkessler
Michael J. de la Merced, Reporter, London @m_delamerced
Lauren Hirsch, Reporter, New York @LaurenSHirsch
Ephrat Livni, Reporter, Washington D.C. @el72champs

 

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Top News
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The latest cyberattack on an American supply chain was felt yesterday as JBS (OTCQX:JBSAY) - the biggest meat producer in the U.S. (and the world) - reported a ransomware breach that shut down all its beef facilities. The company's meatpacking plants also experienced some level of disruption due to the hack which was attributed to a notorious criminal gang based out of Russia. JBS sells beef and pork under the Swift brand, and is also the owner of Pilgrim's Pride (PPC), the second-largest U.S. chicken producer.

Just in time for grilling season... Meat market analysts say plant closures from the JBS hack could soon lead to higher consumer prices, which have increased for many cuts this year because of high demand, labor shortages and high transportation costs. In fact, cattle-futures trading in Chicago fell on Tuesday, with the most-active contract closing down 1.9% to nearly $1.17 a pound. It also prevented the U.S. Department of Agriculture from releasing daily wholesale prices for beef and pork that are heavily relied on by agriculture markets.

Paid the ransom? JBS has made "significant progress" to resolve the cyberattack and will have the “vast majority of [its] beef, pork, poultry and prepared foods plants" operational on Wednesday. "Our systems are coming back online and we are not sparing any resources to fight this threat," the company added in a statement. According to Steiner Consulting Group, which researches the meat industry, "even one day of disruption will significantly impact the beef market and wholesale beef prices."

Go deeper: The JBS attack comes just three weeks after Colonial Pipeline Co., operator of the nation's biggest gasoline pipeline, was targeted in a ransomware attack, which crippled fuel delivery and sent prices soaring in the U.S. Southeast. It's an even bigger problem when hackers target industries dominated by one of a handful of companies (JBS, Cargill and Tyson control about two-thirds of America's beef). While the White House has advised companies in the past not to pay criminals over ransomware attacks, that stance may be changing given vulnerabilities in the supply chain and the lack of investment in robust cybersecurity. The federal government's own agencies were hacked not too long ago, in the SolarWinds (SWI) attack that penetrated thousands of organizations.
Stocks
U.S. stock futures were muted again overnight following a flat session for Wall Street on Tuesday. The "sit tight" mentality is being reflected in the broader market as traders continue to ponder inflation risks, rebounding consumer demand, supply bottlenecks and red-hot manufacturing. Some other catalysts might be seen in the coming sessions, when the Labor Department releases its jobs report on Friday, before a high-profile FOMC meeting set for in mid-June.

"Yes, inflation will overshoot in the short term but the Fed is cognizant of that risk and they are looking at a dual target of full employment and inflation," said Carlos Casanova, senior Asia economist at Union Bancaire Privee in Hong Kong. "So that has made investors less concerned potentially about the pace of Fed tapering this year, focusing more on the pace of reopening this year and leaving that concern about tapering for next year or beyond."

It's not quiet everywhere... The meme trade is back in full force as the retail bros return to pumping stocks via WSB/Reddit. AMC Entertainment (NYSE:AMC) is taking big swings this time around, with the stock up another 33% premarket to nearly $43, following a 23% advance on Tuesday. The stock is even up 200% in the last week, giving some big returns to those who got in early on the swarm. Many are moving in and out of the stock at a quicker pace, like Mudrick Capital, which offloaded 8.5M shares on Tuesday just hours after it acquired them.

On the economic calendar: Investors will be eyeing the Fed's Beige Book this afternoon. The report offers a view on how businesses are faring and current industry conditions, such as an overheating economy or inflationary pressures. This book is produced roughly two weeks before the Fed meets to set monetary policy, which is the single most influential event for the markets.
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Contemporary art prices outperformed S&P 500 returns by 172% since 1995, so it’s no surprise 84% of ultra-high-net-worth individuals collect art. If you’re looking for a solid and nearly uncorrelated real asset to add to your portfolio, check out Masterworks. Bonus: We've partnered with Masterworks to let Wall Street Breakfast readers skip their 25,000 person waitlist, so do yourself a favor and sign up today.*

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Trending
Cannabis legalization efforts continue to expand across the United States and the movement just won another big backer: Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN). The nation's second-largest employer will no longer screen its workers for the drug (except for positions subject to regulation by the U.S. Department of Transportation) and will drop weed-testing requirements for recruitment. The news follows a lawsuit from March, in which a New York man sued Amazon over a rescinded job offer because he tested positive for marijuana (NYC banned employers from testing job applicants for cannabis in 2020).

No smoking at work: "We will continue to do impairment checks on the job and will test for all drugs and alcohol after any incident," Amazon wrote in a blog post.

The e-commerce giant is also throwing its weight behind federal legalization, with its public policy team actively supporting the Marijuana Opportunity Reinvestment and Expungement Act of 2021. Besides legalization, the MORE Act, which was reintroduced in the House last month, would expunge criminal records related to cannabis and invest in impacted communities. 17 states have so far legalized pot use for adults and over 30 states have allowed some form of medical marijuana.

Other changes: Amazon has long tracked the productivity rates among its warehouse workers, recording the number of packages they pick, pack and sort each hour. The workplace policy has been controversial due to what some say forces employees to work at a breakneck speed. As a result, Amazon is making another policy modification in response to the criticism. "Starting today, we're now averaging Time off Task over a longer period to ensure that there's more signal and less noise-reinforcing the original intent of the program," said Dave Clark, CEO, Worldwide Consumer. (27 comments)
Earnings
While earnings season is winding down, investors focused in on one big name yesterday that made big waves during the pandemic. Shares of Zoom Video (ZM) rose 2% in after-hours trading following Q1 results that exceeded estimates across the board. Profits reached more than $227M, from about $27M a year ago, while revenue topped $956M, up from $328.2M a year earlier.

By the numbers: Zoom Phone, which includes cloud-based phone services along with video calls and other capabilities, tripled in growth to 1.5M seats at the end of April, from 1M in January. The work-from-home darling also saw customers with more than 10 employees reach about 497K in the latest period, about 30K more than the previous quarter. Meanwhile, clients that generated more than $100K over the past 12 months reached 1,999, up about 22% from the prior three-month period and doubling over the past year.

"The hybrid model is here to stay," CEO Eric Yuan declared on the post-earnings conference call, though the whopping percentage growth may cool in the coming quarters. Full-year guidance now stands at revenue of $3.98-3.99B (prior: $3.76-3.78B; consensus: $3.82B) and adjusted EPS of $4.56-4.61 (prior: $3.59-3.65; consensus: $3.77). "We are energized to help lead the evolution that allows greater flexibility, productivity, and happiness to both in-person and virtual connections," Yuan added.

Will the forecast lead to more traction? Zoom's stock has dipped about 3% since the start of 2021 as the tech trade remains on the back burner (it soared over 400% in 2020). However, some, like SA author Larry Cheung, say shares could pick up again if the company transforms itself into a "social platform." (29 comments)
Economy
Economists are already debating whether, or to what degree, stimulus spending is fueling inflation, with consumer prices rising by a whopping 4.2% in April. Prices of lumber, steel and semiconductors are also at record highs, given historically low inventories and surging demand. Port congestion and rising freight costs are meanwhile adding to price pressures amid a scarcity of shipping containers, as well as dwindling warehouse space.

Another culprit? Some businesses are pointing fingers at the import tariffs that were first implemented by the Trump administration and kept in place under President Biden. The levies were initially intended to shield American firms from a flood of cheap imported products from China, though some manufacturers say they make their companies less competitive at a time of red-hot domestic demand. Tariffs are paid to the U.S. government by importers, which look to manage the duties in several ways, including discounts, alternative sourcing, lower profit margins, cutting company costs or raising retail prices.

Tariffs on Chinese imports aren't the only duties under the microscope. Homebuilders and lawmakers have urged Biden to eliminate tariffs imposed in 2017 on Canadian softwood lumber, which is part of a decades-long dispute between the two countries. However, instead of lifting the duty, the Commerce Department sought to double the levy to 18% after concluding that Canadian imports were heavily subsidized. A final decision will be made before November, but in the meantime, the tariffs still remain at 9% - despite record high lumber costs.

Outlook: Some economists feel that tariffs have had only muted effects on prices and that their removal won't result in significant downward pressure. This is because tariffs only affect imports, which generally represent a small share of the domestic market, and not all of them are taxed the same (or at all). For example, steel imports make up about a third of total American demand, but supplies coming from Canada, Mexico and Brazil - the largest steel exporters to the U.S. - are exempt from the duties. (22 comments)
What else is happening...
Higher demand? Oil jumps as OPEC+ confirms gradual production increase.

Biden freezes Alaska refuge oil leases, reversing Trump sale.

Going after Gen Z... Etsy (NASDAQ:ETSY) buys fashion app Depop for $1.6B.

Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) sets Prime Day shopping event for June 21-22.

Facebook (NASDAQ:FB) livestreams its F8 Developers Conference, called 'F8 Refresh.'

EU rolls out digital Covid certificates to ease travel - NYT.

Coinbase (NASDAQ:COIN) card can be used with Apple and Google Pay.

SEC says Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) failed to oversee Elon Musk's tweets.

SoFi Technologies (NASDAQ:SOFI) gets Outperform rating as stock begins trading.

Supreme Court rejects Johnson & Johnson (NYSE:JNJ) appeal in baby powder case.​
Tuesday's Key Earnings
Ambarella (NASDAQ:AMBA) +4.2% AH posting Q1 beats, upside sales outlook.
Canopy Growth (NASDAQ:CGC) -6.9% on widening losses for FY21.
HP Enterprise (NYSE:HPE) -1.5% AH amid lackluster profit forecast.
Zoom Video (NASDAQ:ZM) +2% AH beating top- and bottom-line estimates.
Today's Markets
In Asia, Japan +0.5%. Hong Kong -0.8%. China -0.8%. India -0.2%.
In Europe, at midday, London +0.2%. Paris +0.3%. Frankfurt +0.1%.
Futures at 6:20, Dow +0.1%. S&P flat. Nasdaq -0.1%. Crude +1% to $68.40. Gold -0.3% at $1899.30. Bitcoin +2% to $37116.
Ten-year Treasury Yield -1 bps to 1.6%
Today's Economic Calendar
 

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