If Andrew Jones can produce another 3-5 strong years in the middle of the Braves lineup, he is in. HOF loves players who can dominate a game defensively and AJ is at the top of the list. He will put up great career numbers. Vizquel would be a Veterans Committee pick, but was as good as anyone at SS defensively.
All in all, I say 7% of this list get's in (Either Vlad or Moose). The rest have little to no shot, and here's why:
Tejada...absolutely not. He's 31, rapidly declining. 246hr's, 980 rbi. Not happening.
Halladay: 0% chance. again no. 30 years old, 100 wins (shitty stat, but one voters consider), Career K/BB under 3/1, 3.61 Era. He started his career pretty poorly, and has injury problems now.
Glaus: 0% Chance 31 Years old, huge injury history, plays on turf, plays a premium position, 256 homers, 740 rbi, .254 career ba (voters love ba). 0% Chance even with the tiny possibility of a great second half of his career.
Ichiro: 0% Chance. 34 years old, and his game is speed based. Speed based guys decline rapidly with age. Would need 3000+ hits and another mvp. Currently has 1427. He offers nothing in the way of hall of fame power or on base %. If he has 6 more years in him, he'd need to average 266 hits. Not happening. Not Happening even if he plays till he is 42, which he would need to average over 200 still, meaning he'd need to have a few seasons in a row of 240 because once he hits his late 30's he won't get more than 150 hits (won't be able to leg out infield hits).
Edmonds: 0% Chance. 37 Years old, 356 Homers, .288 BA, 1745 Hits. I hope this was a joke. Hugely injury prone and already reduced to a part time player role. He'll be lucky to ever have a 400AB season ever again.
Lee: 0% Chance. 32 Years old. Plays First Base, doesn't have any chance of achieving the numbers that it now takes to get there at 1b. Also, his defense doesn't matter, as the difference between the best and worst defensive 1b is very small. First base is an offensive position, and he doesn't have any chance. .280-221-680.....not even close.
Julio Franco. 0% Chance. This one is a joke I know. Has to be. Only 1 20HR season, Career OPS under 800.
Delgado: 35 Years old. 5% Chance. Steriods Era. 414 Career Homers, 1319 RBI, .280 AVG. If he gets to 550 and wins a world series with the mets he might have a good chance.
Helton: 34 Years old, 391 Homers, Plays 1b. 0% Chance Has absolutely zero chance. Numbers were Colorado aided and aren't very impressive. 391 hr, 1700 hits, .333 career avg (colorado), 1039 rbi. He plays 1b, you almost have to have 550 Homers at 1b, especially if you are a longevity candidate (and he is because he never finished higher than 5th in mvp voting, eliminating him as a dominance candidate)
Ortiz: 2.5% Chance. 32 years old. Zero MVP. DH. Needs 550 Homers, Currently has .285-240-802. He's 417th career in rbi. He needs 550 to get in. He'd need to stay completely healthy and do something like this (seasons aged 33-40, and homers corresponding with). 50, 47, 43, 40, 37, 34, 31, 28 That's hugely unlikely. This year he is only on pace to his 27-30ish. It COULD be done, but he doesn't fit in this category, he would need 5 more amazing seasons and 3 more very good ones (as an old player with a bad body which could deteriorate quickly). Also would need to move up substantially in the rbi categegory, where he is currently 417th and stay perfectly healthy.
Giambi: 0% Chance. With all the steriods talk, he'd need 600 homers. His MVP is tainted. His numbers are very very impressive. on a per season basis, especially once he picked it up. His body is going to hell, and fast. He's 36. I give him four more seasons at best. He won't get to 550 homers, much less 600. He's a DH (which makes it harder also) now, and admitted to steroid use. .291-357-1167. Running out of time and health.
This is an outstanding write-up. The only one I think you are shorting is Helton. I think he has a little bit more than a 0% chance of getting in. I would say 15 to 20%. But you have to remember that this thread is over a year old.
ok, i cut ans paste your list and corrected it of stone cold locks
- your welcome
ROGER CLEAMENS
CRAIG BIGGIO
FRANK THOMAS
DEREK JETER
ALEX RODRIQUEZ
GARRY SHEFFIELD
RANDY JOHNSON
CHIPPER JONES
ANDREW JONES
GREG MADDOX
BARRY BONDS
KEN GRIEFFY
TOM GLAVINE
PEDRO MARTINEZ
RICKY HENDERSON (STILL ACTIVE)
- your welcome
ROGER CLEAMENS
CRAIG BIGGIO
FRANK THOMAS
DEREK JETER
ALEX RODRIQUEZ
GARRY SHEFFIELD
RANDY JOHNSON
CHIPPER JONES
ANDREW JONES
GREG MADDOX
BARRY BONDS
KEN GRIEFFY
TOM GLAVINE
PEDRO MARTINEZ
RICKY HENDERSON (STILL ACTIVE)
I will take out Bernie Williams, Jeff Kent and maybe Pujos.
I still think all 3 will get in there. But I must say that lock may have been too strong of word to use.
Chris,
your list is still too long. The premise is at the end of this season (extract the current pace for this year to get their final season numbers).
Chipper Falls short (Finishes with 382 homers, 1260 RBI, .300 avg) as a 3b/of. MVP once. Many guys with better numbers as a 3b. Consider the ERA he plays in. National Media doesn't like him, he also had the cheating on his wife thing. Very very injured throughout his career. As a 3b in this era, he's need 450 and at least 2500 hits, as of now he wont even have 2050. He doesn't belong in the category of "hall of famer without another game played". If he has two more average seasons, he is in.
Andruw Jones: No. This one isn't close. At the end of this season he'll have .260-365-1100. He's not gonna be in the top 200 players in rbi. A .260 AVG is horrible. He was a very good defensive player for a decent time period, and is a good outfielder now. Jason Stark's book and modern fielding statistics expose him as being massively ovverated defensively now. If he retired at the end of this season, he wouldn't even get a whif of a vote. Doesn't have even 1700 hits. Never a dominant player. No MVP or ROY.
I initially balked at Big Frank. But 2400 Hits, 515 Homers, .305 AVG, 1500 Runs and an OPS of 1000 for his career. That's a lock. Also, little if any steroid suspicion due to his massive size in HS and at Auburn.
Sheffield is questionable due to his steroid stuff, but I'd have to say he is in. Look how close he is to Manny.
your list is still too long. The premise is at the end of this season (extract the current pace for this year to get their final season numbers).
Chipper Falls short (Finishes with 382 homers, 1260 RBI, .300 avg) as a 3b/of. MVP once. Many guys with better numbers as a 3b. Consider the ERA he plays in. National Media doesn't like him, he also had the cheating on his wife thing. Very very injured throughout his career. As a 3b in this era, he's need 450 and at least 2500 hits, as of now he wont even have 2050. He doesn't belong in the category of "hall of famer without another game played". If he has two more average seasons, he is in.
Andruw Jones: No. This one isn't close. At the end of this season he'll have .260-365-1100. He's not gonna be in the top 200 players in rbi. A .260 AVG is horrible. He was a very good defensive player for a decent time period, and is a good outfielder now. Jason Stark's book and modern fielding statistics expose him as being massively ovverated defensively now. If he retired at the end of this season, he wouldn't even get a whif of a vote. Doesn't have even 1700 hits. Never a dominant player. No MVP or ROY.
I initially balked at Big Frank. But 2400 Hits, 515 Homers, .305 AVG, 1500 Runs and an OPS of 1000 for his career. That's a lock. Also, little if any steroid suspicion due to his massive size in HS and at Auburn.
Sheffield is questionable due to his steroid stuff, but I'd have to say he is in. Look how close he is to Manny.
