I played the Clay Rush prop at NO. I kneejerked it though, and will have to research it a little, but the entire prop is based on ONE kick from two weeks ago. He is still only 8 for 15 for the year in FGs.
I played it quick with no research because I just felt the NO at -108 would go up. It did, to -130.
I played it quick with no research because I just felt the NO at -108 would go up. It did, to -130.
Alright, three of them for small units, though once again, I'm not keen on these props in general... but the percentage value here is too good to pass up.
Grand Rapids over 45.5 points (-108 2.5 units): Grand Rapids' offense has looked pretty stellar all season... it's the defense that is disgusting. This is going to be more or less an addition to our over game, which I believe to be a ridiculously good number. Chicago has played some low scoring games this season, no lie, but they've played some pretty crappy offenses as well. The game that strikes me is over 50 to Columbus. If the prop offered is Mike Bishop over 6.5 TDs, would that almost guarantee over 45.5 points? I'd take that instead, but I want credit for any special teams TD or Chris Avery rushing TD that might come my way. Even Tampa let GR get to 50. Expect much of the same from Chicago.
Nashville over 41.5 (-124 1.5 units): Ach, relying on Tony Zimmerman to do something good. This game screams blowout. Just screams it. Colorado off of a bye week, ready to pounce. However, Nashville's offense can't be that bad every week. Look for Colorado to make this a very fast paced game that Nashville can't keep up with... but 7 TDs makes it a lock for us. Though Nashville has struggled to get here all season, Colorado's defense is good at giving up bullcrap TDs.... ask Arizona. Hell, 6 TDs is enough if we can either get a good PAT percentage or a FG. Small play because Nashville's offense is horrible, but it's hard to not score 6 TDs in a game in this league. Not a play to load up on by any stretch of the imagination. Just a percentage play that Nashville's offense is scoring at some point.
5 or more games reaching 100 points (+136 1 unit): Again, a percentage play... If the grand salami is 814.5, you're telling me that the likelihood says there's gonna be at least 4 games over this total. I think we get some gimmes to this... Philly/SJ is likely to reach 100 (giving us a nice 13 point middle to our under), the likelihood says that Chicago/Grand Rapids gets to 100, and Austin/Dallas should easily get there as well. That being said, Orlando/New Orleans I believe to get there, meaning one out of the 4 remaining games must get there... Granted, I said last week that there was no way there wouldn't be at least 5 home teams win.... so tread with caution... it's why it's a 1 unit play. Nothing we can't afford with good money management on a percentage play.
Tread with caution on props as always...
--AFLGuru:toast:
Grand Rapids over 45.5 points (-108 2.5 units): Grand Rapids' offense has looked pretty stellar all season... it's the defense that is disgusting. This is going to be more or less an addition to our over game, which I believe to be a ridiculously good number. Chicago has played some low scoring games this season, no lie, but they've played some pretty crappy offenses as well. The game that strikes me is over 50 to Columbus. If the prop offered is Mike Bishop over 6.5 TDs, would that almost guarantee over 45.5 points? I'd take that instead, but I want credit for any special teams TD or Chris Avery rushing TD that might come my way. Even Tampa let GR get to 50. Expect much of the same from Chicago.
Nashville over 41.5 (-124 1.5 units): Ach, relying on Tony Zimmerman to do something good. This game screams blowout. Just screams it. Colorado off of a bye week, ready to pounce. However, Nashville's offense can't be that bad every week. Look for Colorado to make this a very fast paced game that Nashville can't keep up with... but 7 TDs makes it a lock for us. Though Nashville has struggled to get here all season, Colorado's defense is good at giving up bullcrap TDs.... ask Arizona. Hell, 6 TDs is enough if we can either get a good PAT percentage or a FG. Small play because Nashville's offense is horrible, but it's hard to not score 6 TDs in a game in this league. Not a play to load up on by any stretch of the imagination. Just a percentage play that Nashville's offense is scoring at some point.
5 or more games reaching 100 points (+136 1 unit): Again, a percentage play... If the grand salami is 814.5, you're telling me that the likelihood says there's gonna be at least 4 games over this total. I think we get some gimmes to this... Philly/SJ is likely to reach 100 (giving us a nice 13 point middle to our under), the likelihood says that Chicago/Grand Rapids gets to 100, and Austin/Dallas should easily get there as well. That being said, Orlando/New Orleans I believe to get there, meaning one out of the 4 remaining games must get there... Granted, I said last week that there was no way there wouldn't be at least 5 home teams win.... so tread with caution... it's why it's a 1 unit play. Nothing we can't afford with good money management on a percentage play.
Tread with caution on props as always...
--AFLGuru:toast:
Wow, I'm over my head this week... This card is too crowded... Sorry about this folks. I'll do better next week when I've got all of my numbers to work with. For the record, these bets are made through my memory of the imperative stats and intuition... more intuition this week than usual. That's probably why there's too many plays and too many units floating around out there. Again, I apologize for this... but there's no such thing as too many winners! Here's the recap by day...
Friday
San Jose vs. Philly under 113.5 (2 units)
Saturday (most crowded day of the year in all likelihood)
Las Vegas (-1) @ Columbus (5 units)
Las Vegas @ Columbus under 90 and 96 (2.5 total units)
Georgia (+6.5) @ New York (4 units)
Colorado (-6.5) @ Nashville (4 units)
Nashville over 41.5 points (1.5 units)
Sunday
Chicago @ Grand Rapids over 99.5 (3 units)
Grand Rapids over 45.5 points (2.5 units)
New Orleans vs. Orlando over 98 (1.5 units)
Weekly Props
5 or more games reaching 100 points (1 unit)
Just a note: Shredrick Bonner might not play for Arizona, making all of his props under possibilities. Even if he takes one snap and then leaves the game, your unders are all safe. Also, Tampa laying the points looks better by the moment, but I'm done with this card. As I said, it's too crowded as it is, and I had no business betting this many games on a card I deemed "crappy" at the beginning of the week. Hope this doesn't bite us in the a$$ this week. If it does, I'll apologize now... but no apologies to faders if it still wins!
--AFLGuru:toast:
Friday
San Jose vs. Philly under 113.5 (2 units)
Saturday (most crowded day of the year in all likelihood)
Las Vegas (-1) @ Columbus (5 units)
Las Vegas @ Columbus under 90 and 96 (2.5 total units)
Georgia (+6.5) @ New York (4 units)
Colorado (-6.5) @ Nashville (4 units)
Nashville over 41.5 points (1.5 units)
Sunday
Chicago @ Grand Rapids over 99.5 (3 units)
Grand Rapids over 45.5 points (2.5 units)
New Orleans vs. Orlando over 98 (1.5 units)
Weekly Props
5 or more games reaching 100 points (1 unit)
Just a note: Shredrick Bonner might not play for Arizona, making all of his props under possibilities. Even if he takes one snap and then leaves the game, your unders are all safe. Also, Tampa laying the points looks better by the moment, but I'm done with this card. As I said, it's too crowded as it is, and I had no business betting this many games on a card I deemed "crappy" at the beginning of the week. Hope this doesn't bite us in the a$$ this week. If it does, I'll apologize now... but no apologies to faders if it still wins!
--AFLGuru:toast:
Yeah, let them think what they want... If they don't know that 25-22 is way undervalued because of the +17 and change units, it's their loss if they go fading. There's a difference between playing on the opposite side for value (as a lot of you did last week with Austin when we all should have won but only the Austin folks did) and blatently fading. But it's their choice and their money. I'm sure some of them tried it this week. I'm not worried about folks on other boards and what they think of what I'm doing. But it is all pretty funny to look back at. Thanks for the laugh Tommy.
--AFLGuru:toast:
--AFLGuru:toast:
Last one, I PROMISE...
Adding: Georgia (ml) @ New York (1 unit, +204): Got a good feeling on this game... and having looked at my stats, it should be the strongest play of the week... stronger than Vegas. However, my intuition says Vegas is the stronger play... but regardless, over 3 to 1 on the moneyline for a 5-1 team is ludicrous.
Adding: Georgia (ml) @ New York (1 unit, +204): Got a good feeling on this game... and having looked at my stats, it should be the strongest play of the week... stronger than Vegas. However, my intuition says Vegas is the stronger play... but regardless, over 3 to 1 on the moneyline for a 5-1 team is ludicrous.
