A lot of leans in o/us that I'll probably make smaller plays later in the week. Waiting on injury reports, etc. Leaning under in the Chicago game and the Georgia game. Chicago is a big question mark due to Philyaw's health. If he's not playing, it's a steal under. If he is, we might have a few more problems, but regardless, Grand Rapids isn't going to have every game get to 105+... lol.
Adding: Las Vegas/Columbus under 90 (1 unit)
Adding: Las Vegas/Columbus under 90 (1 unit)
So MUM is the word....works for me...
If it's a 2-way street....
Here's a promise, from "Larry the cable Guy",
I will be "MUM", if everybody else is
Bottom line = we all lose if we post too early...
pretty much, we all want the same sides and bet
into Pinnys/Daringlys openers...only place
BIG BUTTTTTT...
When I sign on to place a wager, and I get those pop-up screens
that say the line has changed,or you can't place the same wager
twice within a 1-minute timeframe....and my computer crashes
and I can't re-boot in time...
I.E., I make a total 94,and Pinny opens 106, honestly,
I'm racing for the 106, and if I have to take,105,not happy,
104 REALLY not happy, and by the time the game gets to 100,
my machine is back on
All I asked for was "Professional Courtesy" , and I got NONE..ZERO
I think the AFL Guru is the best...but....he's the 1 who started posting early
We had a good system in place, good cappers, great info,
worked for EVERYBODY ( or should I say the COMMUNITY )..
I'm not the smartest guy, but I know if I spend 30 hours capping the games
and the injuries, I would like to make a $50 bet before the game gets destroyed..
I will not cap the games and work 30 hours doing it, and then
I miss a play because its posted on a public board
All I wanted was a 15 minute window to "TRY" and get the best #...
See You early Sunday night,#'s are coming early,because this
probably won't sink....
"Larry" the Cable Guy....
If it's a 2-way street....
Here's a promise, from "Larry the cable Guy",
I will be "MUM", if everybody else is
Bottom line = we all lose if we post too early...
pretty much, we all want the same sides and bet
into Pinnys/Daringlys openers...only place
BIG BUTTTTTT...
When I sign on to place a wager, and I get those pop-up screens
that say the line has changed,or you can't place the same wager
twice within a 1-minute timeframe....and my computer crashes
and I can't re-boot in time...
I.E., I make a total 94,and Pinny opens 106, honestly,
I'm racing for the 106, and if I have to take,105,not happy,
104 REALLY not happy, and by the time the game gets to 100,
my machine is back on
All I asked for was "Professional Courtesy" , and I got NONE..ZERO
I think the AFL Guru is the best...but....he's the 1 who started posting early
We had a good system in place, good cappers, great info,
worked for EVERYBODY ( or should I say the COMMUNITY )..
I'm not the smartest guy, but I know if I spend 30 hours capping the games
and the injuries, I would like to make a $50 bet before the game gets destroyed..
I will not cap the games and work 30 hours doing it, and then
I miss a play because its posted on a public board
All I wanted was a 15 minute window to "TRY" and get the best #...
See You early Sunday night,#'s are coming early,because this
probably won't sink....
"Larry" the Cable Guy....
Lol... sorry two-niner... I know that's how the breaks work sometimes though. 113 is way too high for pretty much any game with San Jose's defense in it. I don't think Philly gets to 45 in this game, meaning San Jose's gotta get to 69... not impossible by any stretch of the imagination against Philly's D, but even 67 isn't enough at that point...lol
As for the card in general, it's snapped into place pretty well. It's still a solid card. We'll probably have a couple more smaller plays as games trickle closer. The Orlando line movement pisses me off with the over. Very disturbing that I didn't catch that right away, but I could never put more than 2.5-3 units on an Orlando over anyway... especially for as bad as that offense is. Cory Fleming should help this week. Anyway, here's the reasoning behind some of these plays.
Las Vegas (-1) @ Columbus (5 units -105): We're going to look back as this game and laugh like the Tampa game at 5.5 I believe. I had the game at Vegas -9.5. Currently 5. Good til about 10, though I don't know if it gets up that high. Regardless, anything you can get under 7 is a steal. Las Vegas got snuck up on last week, and we really got screwed by a last second Austin TD. Vegas is one game back to LA in the west and were paying close attention to the San Jose/Orlando game on Sunday afternoon. Don't be surprised if Clint Dolezel rushes himself back from injury due to Craig Whelihan's ineptitude. Matt D'Orazio played himself a pretty good game against Georgia from what the stats show. Unfortunately, I only have notes on the 4th quarter of the game and even those are probably off because of missing the first three quarters... Vegas still might have the best defense in the AFL and shut down Austin last week pretty well. The kick coverage team is what really concerns me. Austin started on the 15 yard line seemingly all game. Despite that, Craig Whelihan or whomever is quarterbacking will have all day to throw the ball... Columbus has amassed 1 sack all season. This is what makes them really bad. Remember this team lost to Nashville in week 1... at home... by 9... and Vegas went into Nashville and beat the Kats by 8... Vegas is 14 points better than Columbus is. Vegas also gets some credit for having an 8 day week as opposed to Columbus' 6... though the number is lost some due to a long travel week and home field advantage. Look for Vegas to do all of the things they did right against Austin, and limit the stupidity. Some of the breaks in that game were ridiculous, as Vegas had them outplayed the entire game. Balls that Whelihan goes to throw away probably won't hit the cross bar and fall into a Columbus players' hands like they did last week. Look for Vegas to play with a sense of urgency and win this game handlely.
Colorado (-6.5) @ Nashville (4 units -105): Line currently at -8.5, I had the game at 9. I believe it's good up to about 9.5 or 10. I'm still concerned about anyone going into the Alley, but it just seems like this Nashville team doesn't have it this year. I was wrong about them at the start of the season. Perhaps they'll kick it into gear this week, but I just don't see it happening. Colorado gets a bye week after playing 5 very good games. This might be the best team in the AFL you've never seen on NBC alongside Las Vegas. Colorado has played resoundingly good football away from home all season, and John Dutton should have no problem putting a decent amount of points on Nashville. If they reach 50, they cover. I don't think it's going to be much of a problem getting there the way they play offense. This isn't Orlando they're playing against. Against everyone else, at least 49 this year. The offense is clicking and the defense is harrassing quarterbacks. Ask John Kaleo how much he likes playing Colorado. This team is really scary and I think is the best team in the American Conference. Colorado might roll in this one, and unlike Chicago, they won't let Nashville back into it... they learned that lesson once against Arizona and likely won't repeat it here.
Georgia (+6.5) @ New York (4 units -105): Line currently at +4, I had it at +2, which is essentially a pick 'em. I think anything to around 2.5 or 3 is still very good. Georgia has a pretty good shot of winning this game in my estimation. New York is the luckiest team in the AFL. They keep running into these teams with bad problems... like Vegas without a QB, Nashville without a QB, Philly... when they're Philly... lol... The fact of the matter says their defense is overrated because they keep running into lucky games. Granted, this week, they run into the same good fortune playing Georgia without Jim Kubiak. Georgia's got a big problem that New York doesn't have... they share a division with New Orleans (5-1), Orlando (4-2), Tampa (3-2) and an Austin team that looks to be coming on of late since beating Grand Rapids. New York has a very potent offense, no doubt. But when they've run into defensive teams this year, the result hasn't been pretty. Yes, they hung 50 on Dallas, but it was all in the first half. Let's remember they lost to Vegas away... with a backup QB. I think the head start with Georgia is generous. 5-1 teams shouldn't be massive dogs on the road against a team that's proven nothing. I like the Force's defense to come up big in this one, causing Aaron Garcia lots of pain... it's the blueprint that Orlando used to break the Dragons' streak last year, and will probably work for Georgia to bring them to 6-1 this year. New York will feel a bit better knowing that Dallas lost last week to New Orleans, giving them a game in the loss column and the tiebreaker at the current moment with the Desperadoes.
I'll get to the o/us in a minute... gotta catch up with all of the other posts around the board first... This takes awhile to type.
--AFLGuru
As for the card in general, it's snapped into place pretty well. It's still a solid card. We'll probably have a couple more smaller plays as games trickle closer. The Orlando line movement pisses me off with the over. Very disturbing that I didn't catch that right away, but I could never put more than 2.5-3 units on an Orlando over anyway... especially for as bad as that offense is. Cory Fleming should help this week. Anyway, here's the reasoning behind some of these plays.
Las Vegas (-1) @ Columbus (5 units -105): We're going to look back as this game and laugh like the Tampa game at 5.5 I believe. I had the game at Vegas -9.5. Currently 5. Good til about 10, though I don't know if it gets up that high. Regardless, anything you can get under 7 is a steal. Las Vegas got snuck up on last week, and we really got screwed by a last second Austin TD. Vegas is one game back to LA in the west and were paying close attention to the San Jose/Orlando game on Sunday afternoon. Don't be surprised if Clint Dolezel rushes himself back from injury due to Craig Whelihan's ineptitude. Matt D'Orazio played himself a pretty good game against Georgia from what the stats show. Unfortunately, I only have notes on the 4th quarter of the game and even those are probably off because of missing the first three quarters... Vegas still might have the best defense in the AFL and shut down Austin last week pretty well. The kick coverage team is what really concerns me. Austin started on the 15 yard line seemingly all game. Despite that, Craig Whelihan or whomever is quarterbacking will have all day to throw the ball... Columbus has amassed 1 sack all season. This is what makes them really bad. Remember this team lost to Nashville in week 1... at home... by 9... and Vegas went into Nashville and beat the Kats by 8... Vegas is 14 points better than Columbus is. Vegas also gets some credit for having an 8 day week as opposed to Columbus' 6... though the number is lost some due to a long travel week and home field advantage. Look for Vegas to do all of the things they did right against Austin, and limit the stupidity. Some of the breaks in that game were ridiculous, as Vegas had them outplayed the entire game. Balls that Whelihan goes to throw away probably won't hit the cross bar and fall into a Columbus players' hands like they did last week. Look for Vegas to play with a sense of urgency and win this game handlely.
Colorado (-6.5) @ Nashville (4 units -105): Line currently at -8.5, I had the game at 9. I believe it's good up to about 9.5 or 10. I'm still concerned about anyone going into the Alley, but it just seems like this Nashville team doesn't have it this year. I was wrong about them at the start of the season. Perhaps they'll kick it into gear this week, but I just don't see it happening. Colorado gets a bye week after playing 5 very good games. This might be the best team in the AFL you've never seen on NBC alongside Las Vegas. Colorado has played resoundingly good football away from home all season, and John Dutton should have no problem putting a decent amount of points on Nashville. If they reach 50, they cover. I don't think it's going to be much of a problem getting there the way they play offense. This isn't Orlando they're playing against. Against everyone else, at least 49 this year. The offense is clicking and the defense is harrassing quarterbacks. Ask John Kaleo how much he likes playing Colorado. This team is really scary and I think is the best team in the American Conference. Colorado might roll in this one, and unlike Chicago, they won't let Nashville back into it... they learned that lesson once against Arizona and likely won't repeat it here.
Georgia (+6.5) @ New York (4 units -105): Line currently at +4, I had it at +2, which is essentially a pick 'em. I think anything to around 2.5 or 3 is still very good. Georgia has a pretty good shot of winning this game in my estimation. New York is the luckiest team in the AFL. They keep running into these teams with bad problems... like Vegas without a QB, Nashville without a QB, Philly... when they're Philly... lol... The fact of the matter says their defense is overrated because they keep running into lucky games. Granted, this week, they run into the same good fortune playing Georgia without Jim Kubiak. Georgia's got a big problem that New York doesn't have... they share a division with New Orleans (5-1), Orlando (4-2), Tampa (3-2) and an Austin team that looks to be coming on of late since beating Grand Rapids. New York has a very potent offense, no doubt. But when they've run into defensive teams this year, the result hasn't been pretty. Yes, they hung 50 on Dallas, but it was all in the first half. Let's remember they lost to Vegas away... with a backup QB. I think the head start with Georgia is generous. 5-1 teams shouldn't be massive dogs on the road against a team that's proven nothing. I like the Force's defense to come up big in this one, causing Aaron Garcia lots of pain... it's the blueprint that Orlando used to break the Dragons' streak last year, and will probably work for Georgia to bring them to 6-1 this year. New York will feel a bit better knowing that Dallas lost last week to New Orleans, giving them a game in the loss column and the tiebreaker at the current moment with the Desperadoes.
I'll get to the o/us in a minute... gotta catch up with all of the other posts around the board first... This takes awhile to type.
--AFLGuru
Fortunately I didn't miss much... Going on...
San Jose vs. Philadelphia under 113.5 (2 units -105): Currently 111, I had at 108, but even that was probably a bit high. San Jose comes into this game after coming out like a house on fire against Orlando. The defense does something that I hadn't seen done a lot this year... constant bump and run. The early bumps by all three receivers leave the deep ball open, but for as fast as the line was getting to Joe Hamilton, he never had the time to see it. Philly's line is atrocious. San Jose tried it in certain spots this year... Against Vegas they jammed up the receivers and held Vegas scoreless in the 2nd half. Against LA they did it but got burned by it constantly... a tribute to LA's offensive line keeping Kaleo standing as long as possible. But against this Philly team? Don't be surprised if we see a backup QB in the game. That being said, SJ should roll, but I'm not ready to lay over a TD with a sub-.500 team. If San Jose comes out fired up, look for Philly's tiny receivers to get overmatched early and to end up resulting in a low total for Philly. Though Philly's defense is swiss cheese as well, San Jose methodically moved down the field on Orlando... I think Darren Arbeit figured out that you can't keep putting the defense on the field after 1 play, whether it be a pick or a TD. Mark Grieb goes back to business... San Jose gets in the 50s. Philly gets in the 40s. Easy under... but as long as Philly's defense is still involved, I have a hard time betting under... Thus the smaller units. If the game goes over, San Jose likely routs.
Orlando @ New Orleans over 98 (1.5 units -105): Currently 99.5, I had tabbed 106. Another very difficult play for me to make. Orlando's offense became very vertical last week, which is why they got manhandled. Orlando's WRs are terrible without Cory Fleming. Fleming makes them all better because the best DB has to be on Fleming, leaving lesser DBs on Orlando's #2 and #3. They suited all three fullbacks and ran the ball 6 times in the game... which I'll never understand. New Orleans remains one of the more vertical teams in the AFL, the difference being that their QB can make those throws (and WRs can make those catches... Orlando dropped no less than 3 TDs against San Jose). Andy Kelly is one of the game's best. When Orlando gives up scores, it's usually on the deep ball. Damon Mason got torched three times for long scores this past week. Look for Kelly to drop 55-60 on this defense if Orlando can't get to him. But this is a double-edged sword for us... If Orlando pressures Andy Kelly and does force turnovers, they'll score fairly quickly due to the rushing attack. In other words, New Orleans starts on the 5... Kelly throws a pick to his 20. Orlando throws one slant for 8 yards and 3 carries later will be in the end zone. If Orlando gets up early, look for lots of quick strikes and onside kicks on both sides. This one could get out of control very quickly. The likelihood says that we can open a middle in the 2nd half of this game, as these two teams played two high scoring first halfs last year, that I believe both ended as under games. So we'll see what happens. Only 1.5 units because it's Orlando's defense, and when they're playing, no one scores 50.
Vegas @ Columbus under 90 (1 unit, -105): Two reasons this play is small. Vegas STILL hasn't played a game that even got close to over this season... and Clint Dolezel might be back. Also, I hate laying under 90 in an AFL game... 38-38 going into OT likely screws us... So the bank here says that Vegas' defense does what they did last week against Austin... shut them down early and often, and hopefully end up pulling on another ugly game in the low 40s to the mid 30s. Matt D'Orazio played a decent game against Georgia, and the way this game gets to over is all good for us... If the game gets to over, Vegas is probably blowing out Columbus, leading to onside kicks and quick scores... I'll take +5 units and -1 unit all the time!
So that's it for now... again, leans on under in Chicago and Georgia... if another solid capper gets aboard those figures, go for it. I might not throw the pick up here per se, but I'll back anyone who's on those unders. We'll see how the week is going. Crowded card for Saturday... I'll check back most mornings this week, so be patient with my responses.
Oh and don't worry... I'm not changing the way I do anything because of anyone. There is plenty of time between my posts. If I could, I'd post faster to make sure you all get the best lines possible. Don't worry about any of this. I'm done worrying about it.
--AFLGuru:toast:
San Jose vs. Philadelphia under 113.5 (2 units -105): Currently 111, I had at 108, but even that was probably a bit high. San Jose comes into this game after coming out like a house on fire against Orlando. The defense does something that I hadn't seen done a lot this year... constant bump and run. The early bumps by all three receivers leave the deep ball open, but for as fast as the line was getting to Joe Hamilton, he never had the time to see it. Philly's line is atrocious. San Jose tried it in certain spots this year... Against Vegas they jammed up the receivers and held Vegas scoreless in the 2nd half. Against LA they did it but got burned by it constantly... a tribute to LA's offensive line keeping Kaleo standing as long as possible. But against this Philly team? Don't be surprised if we see a backup QB in the game. That being said, SJ should roll, but I'm not ready to lay over a TD with a sub-.500 team. If San Jose comes out fired up, look for Philly's tiny receivers to get overmatched early and to end up resulting in a low total for Philly. Though Philly's defense is swiss cheese as well, San Jose methodically moved down the field on Orlando... I think Darren Arbeit figured out that you can't keep putting the defense on the field after 1 play, whether it be a pick or a TD. Mark Grieb goes back to business... San Jose gets in the 50s. Philly gets in the 40s. Easy under... but as long as Philly's defense is still involved, I have a hard time betting under... Thus the smaller units. If the game goes over, San Jose likely routs.
Orlando @ New Orleans over 98 (1.5 units -105): Currently 99.5, I had tabbed 106. Another very difficult play for me to make. Orlando's offense became very vertical last week, which is why they got manhandled. Orlando's WRs are terrible without Cory Fleming. Fleming makes them all better because the best DB has to be on Fleming, leaving lesser DBs on Orlando's #2 and #3. They suited all three fullbacks and ran the ball 6 times in the game... which I'll never understand. New Orleans remains one of the more vertical teams in the AFL, the difference being that their QB can make those throws (and WRs can make those catches... Orlando dropped no less than 3 TDs against San Jose). Andy Kelly is one of the game's best. When Orlando gives up scores, it's usually on the deep ball. Damon Mason got torched three times for long scores this past week. Look for Kelly to drop 55-60 on this defense if Orlando can't get to him. But this is a double-edged sword for us... If Orlando pressures Andy Kelly and does force turnovers, they'll score fairly quickly due to the rushing attack. In other words, New Orleans starts on the 5... Kelly throws a pick to his 20. Orlando throws one slant for 8 yards and 3 carries later will be in the end zone. If Orlando gets up early, look for lots of quick strikes and onside kicks on both sides. This one could get out of control very quickly. The likelihood says that we can open a middle in the 2nd half of this game, as these two teams played two high scoring first halfs last year, that I believe both ended as under games. So we'll see what happens. Only 1.5 units because it's Orlando's defense, and when they're playing, no one scores 50.
Vegas @ Columbus under 90 (1 unit, -105): Two reasons this play is small. Vegas STILL hasn't played a game that even got close to over this season... and Clint Dolezel might be back. Also, I hate laying under 90 in an AFL game... 38-38 going into OT likely screws us... So the bank here says that Vegas' defense does what they did last week against Austin... shut them down early and often, and hopefully end up pulling on another ugly game in the low 40s to the mid 30s. Matt D'Orazio played a decent game against Georgia, and the way this game gets to over is all good for us... If the game gets to over, Vegas is probably blowing out Columbus, leading to onside kicks and quick scores... I'll take +5 units and -1 unit all the time!
So that's it for now... again, leans on under in Chicago and Georgia... if another solid capper gets aboard those figures, go for it. I might not throw the pick up here per se, but I'll back anyone who's on those unders. We'll see how the week is going. Crowded card for Saturday... I'll check back most mornings this week, so be patient with my responses.
Oh and don't worry... I'm not changing the way I do anything because of anyone. There is plenty of time between my posts. If I could, I'd post faster to make sure you all get the best lines possible. Don't worry about any of this. I'm done worrying about it.
--AFLGuru:toast:
Hey Guru:
I'm new to this board but I'm not new to the AFL. This is my 3rd year with it. I decided to join the board because any AFL talk is good talk to me. Anyway, I grabbed:
SJ -7
TB -5 2 units
GA +8
COL -7
GR +9
I absolutely agree with you on GA and COL obviously. NAS with Zimmerman has been a total disaster, and Murray just underwent surgery yesterday. NY may beat GA, but 8 is a lot of points to lay. GA should be able to hang.
I cannot take LV right now. No offense, period. None. Lowest scoring team in the league by a full 6 points. Fewest TDs in the league. But, I'm no CMB fan either. GL with that one; hope Dolezel is back for you. Actually for US, because I have LV over 9 wins for the season. You wrote "Remember this team lost to Nashville in week 1... at home... by 9... and Vegas went into Nashville and beat the Kats by 8... " Remember, CMB lost to NAS with Salisbury vs. Murray. LV beat NAS with Zimmerman, not Murray. And Salisbury is ancient history. If CMB can beat CHI by 13 at home, they can sure beat LV. But man, this game looks to be ugly.
Oh yeah, you mentioned that AZ is not 1/2 point worse than GR because they beat them by 20 in week one. Who was QB for GR in week one? Nick (Butterfingers) Browder, who fumbled the ball 5 TIMES in the first quarter and one play. And Bonner was 100% healthy, and Orshawonte Bryant was playing. If AZ played GR with Bishop right now, gimme GR. AZ is a dead team walking right now, and TB is finally healthy and looking tough. AZ is a mess.
I'm new to this board but I'm not new to the AFL. This is my 3rd year with it. I decided to join the board because any AFL talk is good talk to me. Anyway, I grabbed:
SJ -7
TB -5 2 units
GA +8
COL -7
GR +9
I absolutely agree with you on GA and COL obviously. NAS with Zimmerman has been a total disaster, and Murray just underwent surgery yesterday. NY may beat GA, but 8 is a lot of points to lay. GA should be able to hang.
I cannot take LV right now. No offense, period. None. Lowest scoring team in the league by a full 6 points. Fewest TDs in the league. But, I'm no CMB fan either. GL with that one; hope Dolezel is back for you. Actually for US, because I have LV over 9 wins for the season. You wrote "Remember this team lost to Nashville in week 1... at home... by 9... and Vegas went into Nashville and beat the Kats by 8... " Remember, CMB lost to NAS with Salisbury vs. Murray. LV beat NAS with Zimmerman, not Murray. And Salisbury is ancient history. If CMB can beat CHI by 13 at home, they can sure beat LV. But man, this game looks to be ugly.
Oh yeah, you mentioned that AZ is not 1/2 point worse than GR because they beat them by 20 in week one. Who was QB for GR in week one? Nick (Butterfingers) Browder, who fumbled the ball 5 TIMES in the first quarter and one play. And Bonner was 100% healthy, and Orshawonte Bryant was playing. If AZ played GR with Bishop right now, gimme GR. AZ is a dead team walking right now, and TB is finally healthy and looking tough. AZ is a mess.
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Scott, you're certainly right with a lot of what you say. You're probably right on the Arizona number... my point was that it was a lot.
You also mention a lot about changing quarterbacks. I think if Philadelphia has proven anything to us it's that you can't take a good QB and assume your team is going to be good when you have no team around him. Grand Rapids and Columbus have terrible TEAMS. Matt D'Orazio is no better than Chad Salisbury in all honestly. Just a different type of quarterback that teams are still getting used to. Once it's all figured out, Columbus will return to the same bullcrap team that they are. The defense is okay, but the offense is putred, D'Orazio or Salisbury.
Regarding Nashville... I've said this the past two weeks and will stand by it. They're better off with Zimm than Murray at QB. Zimmerman is the better QB. Murray is the athletic guy. Zimmerman is the better passer. They're a mess because the line has sucked (James Baron proving to be a shell of his old self) and the wide receivers are all banged up right now. The team will get healthy and improve, but not yet.... not even close.
The Chicago game with Columbus was an abhorration... I think we all know that. Vegas had that game last week (Austin) and the likelihood they do it back to back weeks isn't good.
And regardless of who is quarterbacking Grand Rapids... they don't play defense. Grand Rapids is terrible. They are the worst D in the AFL and it's not even close... Bishop's gotta be perfect for them to win games, and he simply can't do it. Great QB... he'd be one of the elite on a good team. But his team is terrible and short of Chris Jackson, his WRs are terrible. They've had several games with zero stops this year, and if Philyaw is QBing Chicago, with Henry Douglas returning... this could be a real big Chicago win. Team just lacks killer instinct. I agree that Arz is a mess right now... Tampa should take advantage, but I think this Rattlers' team turns it on very soon.
Oh yeah, and the trick with us and Vegas... get on them before the books do. This is going to be the ATS team of the year when Dolezel plays. Don't worry, you'll get to at least 9 wins with this team. I think you'll get your 10 easy as well. 11-5 isn't out of the question, especially if Arz keeps struggling.
I'll go shot for shot in the AFL for days and days if you want to talk about it. I've been following this league since I was in elementary school and can talk about the game for hours at a time. Good to have you aboard. Sorry about the messed up stats and QB disclaimers.
--AFLGuru
You also mention a lot about changing quarterbacks. I think if Philadelphia has proven anything to us it's that you can't take a good QB and assume your team is going to be good when you have no team around him. Grand Rapids and Columbus have terrible TEAMS. Matt D'Orazio is no better than Chad Salisbury in all honestly. Just a different type of quarterback that teams are still getting used to. Once it's all figured out, Columbus will return to the same bullcrap team that they are. The defense is okay, but the offense is putred, D'Orazio or Salisbury.
Regarding Nashville... I've said this the past two weeks and will stand by it. They're better off with Zimm than Murray at QB. Zimmerman is the better QB. Murray is the athletic guy. Zimmerman is the better passer. They're a mess because the line has sucked (James Baron proving to be a shell of his old self) and the wide receivers are all banged up right now. The team will get healthy and improve, but not yet.... not even close.
The Chicago game with Columbus was an abhorration... I think we all know that. Vegas had that game last week (Austin) and the likelihood they do it back to back weeks isn't good.
And regardless of who is quarterbacking Grand Rapids... they don't play defense. Grand Rapids is terrible. They are the worst D in the AFL and it's not even close... Bishop's gotta be perfect for them to win games, and he simply can't do it. Great QB... he'd be one of the elite on a good team. But his team is terrible and short of Chris Jackson, his WRs are terrible. They've had several games with zero stops this year, and if Philyaw is QBing Chicago, with Henry Douglas returning... this could be a real big Chicago win. Team just lacks killer instinct. I agree that Arz is a mess right now... Tampa should take advantage, but I think this Rattlers' team turns it on very soon.
Oh yeah, and the trick with us and Vegas... get on them before the books do. This is going to be the ATS team of the year when Dolezel plays. Don't worry, you'll get to at least 9 wins with this team. I think you'll get your 10 easy as well. 11-5 isn't out of the question, especially if Arz keeps struggling.
I'll go shot for shot in the AFL for days and days if you want to talk about it. I've been following this league since I was in elementary school and can talk about the game for hours at a time. Good to have you aboard. Sorry about the messed up stats and QB disclaimers.
--AFLGuru
No problem AG; good to get your input.
I would like to think that LV could put up some numbers when Dolezel gets back. But the finger HAS to be 100%. He played in SJ with the hurt finger and was tossing up floaters all night. If he is fully healed, I like their chances. If not, then no way. He has too many good receivers not to put up points. But man, the penalties and poor coaching on this team. At least James hasn't hurled his headset into the crowd and tossed his shirt onto the field yet!
GR I know the defense is atrocious. That's why the only time to take them is when they play someone who is having offensive trouble. Maybe they hang in, like when they beat CMB. CHI right now is not scoring. Even with Philyaw, they got only 39 at CMB and only 35 vs. ORL. I'm getting 9 at home with a team that is 7 points better on offense. I have to PRAY for a stop or two and that Bishop can once again hit 50 points plus. CHI just does not seem like they can hit 60, even with Philyaw, and OS Douglas is still out from what I hear. And, I need CHI. I have 2 units on them OVER 8.5 wins.
AZ to turn it on soon? I think it's off, unplugged, and sitting in storage. This team is truly bad. Why? Number of reasons. If you remember before the year, Bonner and Trentadue and others were talking about how tough the training camp was because of the new offensive system of Shell and Kuharich. Bonner said several times he had the Danny White terminology in his head as he went to the line instead of the new stuff. Hunkie Cooper alluded to it as well; that it just wasn't the same. And this team is full of veterans who have all been in AZ a while: Gatewood, Bonner, the gone Cooper, etc. These guys are used to TITLES. Now, here they are, tied for dead last in the conference, knowing that last week was pretty much their one chance to get back in it. What do they do? Tell me, how many other teams up 3 with first and goal at the 1 with 1.30 left would have lost. NONE. Why? Shell and the play calling. Not only did they not score, they kept going OOB and getting stopped for losses which stop the clock. They could not even bleed clock, much less score. Then they get it back with 27 seconds to go. Even the announcer for AZ radio says they are in good position, as they can score and win. They can't even get the ball across MIDFIELD. Shell is poison. LY he had a good team in NY and went 9-7. Look at NY now. This year Shell inherits an arenabowl quality team. Look where they are now. Garcia and NY were happy to see him leave. Now we know why. AZ cut costs and got rid of White. And, Sarver, the new owner, cares nothing about this team and it looks like they may actually fold or move after this year. The players know this. I honestly think this is a DEAD TEAM WALKING. Tell me what their motivation is? They have a coaching staff they resent, an owner who does not care and wants to get rid of the team, a bunch of veterans who expect titles and now any real hope is gone, where is the motivation? There is none. This is a fade-all-the-way team to me until they prove they can cover. They have not lost 5 straight for nothing. Bonner looks lost. Cooper, the soul, is cut. Bryant is hurt. The defense lost Parker and Henderson and what's-his-face who went to AUS. Fade this team.
I don't see NAS better with Zimmerman. Murray led them to their only win, then a bad one vs. NO, but then they could have beaten PHL without a last-possession fumble, and then they put up 49 on NY after the 48 on PHL. Zimmerman comes in, and they score 32 and 38. I don't think they are that much worse, but they are no better with TZ. Maybe McGriff will help.
I would like to think that LV could put up some numbers when Dolezel gets back. But the finger HAS to be 100%. He played in SJ with the hurt finger and was tossing up floaters all night. If he is fully healed, I like their chances. If not, then no way. He has too many good receivers not to put up points. But man, the penalties and poor coaching on this team. At least James hasn't hurled his headset into the crowd and tossed his shirt onto the field yet!
GR I know the defense is atrocious. That's why the only time to take them is when they play someone who is having offensive trouble. Maybe they hang in, like when they beat CMB. CHI right now is not scoring. Even with Philyaw, they got only 39 at CMB and only 35 vs. ORL. I'm getting 9 at home with a team that is 7 points better on offense. I have to PRAY for a stop or two and that Bishop can once again hit 50 points plus. CHI just does not seem like they can hit 60, even with Philyaw, and OS Douglas is still out from what I hear. And, I need CHI. I have 2 units on them OVER 8.5 wins.
AZ to turn it on soon? I think it's off, unplugged, and sitting in storage. This team is truly bad. Why? Number of reasons. If you remember before the year, Bonner and Trentadue and others were talking about how tough the training camp was because of the new offensive system of Shell and Kuharich. Bonner said several times he had the Danny White terminology in his head as he went to the line instead of the new stuff. Hunkie Cooper alluded to it as well; that it just wasn't the same. And this team is full of veterans who have all been in AZ a while: Gatewood, Bonner, the gone Cooper, etc. These guys are used to TITLES. Now, here they are, tied for dead last in the conference, knowing that last week was pretty much their one chance to get back in it. What do they do? Tell me, how many other teams up 3 with first and goal at the 1 with 1.30 left would have lost. NONE. Why? Shell and the play calling. Not only did they not score, they kept going OOB and getting stopped for losses which stop the clock. They could not even bleed clock, much less score. Then they get it back with 27 seconds to go. Even the announcer for AZ radio says they are in good position, as they can score and win. They can't even get the ball across MIDFIELD. Shell is poison. LY he had a good team in NY and went 9-7. Look at NY now. This year Shell inherits an arenabowl quality team. Look where they are now. Garcia and NY were happy to see him leave. Now we know why. AZ cut costs and got rid of White. And, Sarver, the new owner, cares nothing about this team and it looks like they may actually fold or move after this year. The players know this. I honestly think this is a DEAD TEAM WALKING. Tell me what their motivation is? They have a coaching staff they resent, an owner who does not care and wants to get rid of the team, a bunch of veterans who expect titles and now any real hope is gone, where is the motivation? There is none. This is a fade-all-the-way team to me until they prove they can cover. They have not lost 5 straight for nothing. Bonner looks lost. Cooper, the soul, is cut. Bryant is hurt. The defense lost Parker and Henderson and what's-his-face who went to AUS. Fade this team.
I don't see NAS better with Zimmerman. Murray led them to their only win, then a bad one vs. NO, but then they could have beaten PHL without a last-possession fumble, and then they put up 49 on NY after the 48 on PHL. Zimmerman comes in, and they score 32 and 38. I don't think they are that much worse, but they are no better with TZ. Maybe McGriff will help.
Lol. I appreciate it guys.
Scott: Regarding Arizona... I am reminded of a couple things off of last season. Todd Shell took over a team in equal shambles to this Arizona team. They opened up 0-4 I believe it was (maybe 0-5... memory slips me) and then rolled off 9 out of 10 to roll themselves back into the playoff picture. Shell proved the offense could work, though Arizona has really not been a light-it-up team since the days that Bonner was actually young. I agree that they are used to winning championships, but do you think that Orlando isn't? Orlando opened up 1-4 and played Albany in the Arena Bowl... and that was in a 14 game season (this is I believe 4 seasons ago). Tampa starts 1-4 and makes the playoffs last year by rolling off a massive streak. Same with this Arizona team last year. Were they 2-5 and the didn't lose again until the Arena Bowl, including sweeping San Jose in the regular season? I've got a hard time fading this team. I agree that they're a mess right now, but at some point, even without Cooper (who by the way, is still floating around out there as a consultant or something... he's still in the locker room, just not an active player), Bonner, Burley, Gatewood... someone's gotta step up and do something big. Honestly, this is a perfect spot this weekend in Tampa. Tampa's only wins are against Austin, Grand Rapids, and San Jose. Still a banged up Tampa team facing a very volatile Arizona team. Yes, the makings are there of a blowout for Tampa, and I can't really suggest betting on Arizona in the game because of that, but this is a team that can play spoiler VERY easily in that conference. Remember, 1-5 puts you 2 games out. That's not so bad considering 4-2 in the opposite conference puts you out if your name is Orlando.... Two with San Jose, LA surely fading, Vegas in trouble until Dolezel is back... you never know. Lots of football to be played.
And in fairness for Chicago, scoring 35 against Orlando is nothing to be ashamed of. Tampa, at 46 in defeat had the most points scored before this weekend, and 15 of that were in bullcrap points that meant squat. Dallas was next best at 42. Colorado, a very potent offense only hung 36 on the Preds, and 9 of that was literally handed to them by the offense. The output against Columbus was scary. Definitely a Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde situation... ask the Colorado Crush how good Chicago is... hard place to pull out games in the Pepsi Center (I believe that's what they call that arena over there in Denver). I think last week was a "get better game" for the Rush, who really manhandled Nashville despite the backdoor cover. I could totally see Mike Bishop providing a ton of problems for anyone in the AFL (if memory serves, AD MacPherson went nutso last year on Chicago as well), especially this Rush team who still looks vulnerable, but something tells me that the Rush take care of business handlely in this one, knowing that they are very fortunate to be right in the playoff push in their conference despite some real bad losses.
--AFLGuru
Scott: Regarding Arizona... I am reminded of a couple things off of last season. Todd Shell took over a team in equal shambles to this Arizona team. They opened up 0-4 I believe it was (maybe 0-5... memory slips me) and then rolled off 9 out of 10 to roll themselves back into the playoff picture. Shell proved the offense could work, though Arizona has really not been a light-it-up team since the days that Bonner was actually young. I agree that they are used to winning championships, but do you think that Orlando isn't? Orlando opened up 1-4 and played Albany in the Arena Bowl... and that was in a 14 game season (this is I believe 4 seasons ago). Tampa starts 1-4 and makes the playoffs last year by rolling off a massive streak. Same with this Arizona team last year. Were they 2-5 and the didn't lose again until the Arena Bowl, including sweeping San Jose in the regular season? I've got a hard time fading this team. I agree that they're a mess right now, but at some point, even without Cooper (who by the way, is still floating around out there as a consultant or something... he's still in the locker room, just not an active player), Bonner, Burley, Gatewood... someone's gotta step up and do something big. Honestly, this is a perfect spot this weekend in Tampa. Tampa's only wins are against Austin, Grand Rapids, and San Jose. Still a banged up Tampa team facing a very volatile Arizona team. Yes, the makings are there of a blowout for Tampa, and I can't really suggest betting on Arizona in the game because of that, but this is a team that can play spoiler VERY easily in that conference. Remember, 1-5 puts you 2 games out. That's not so bad considering 4-2 in the opposite conference puts you out if your name is Orlando.... Two with San Jose, LA surely fading, Vegas in trouble until Dolezel is back... you never know. Lots of football to be played.
And in fairness for Chicago, scoring 35 against Orlando is nothing to be ashamed of. Tampa, at 46 in defeat had the most points scored before this weekend, and 15 of that were in bullcrap points that meant squat. Dallas was next best at 42. Colorado, a very potent offense only hung 36 on the Preds, and 9 of that was literally handed to them by the offense. The output against Columbus was scary. Definitely a Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde situation... ask the Colorado Crush how good Chicago is... hard place to pull out games in the Pepsi Center (I believe that's what they call that arena over there in Denver). I think last week was a "get better game" for the Rush, who really manhandled Nashville despite the backdoor cover. I could totally see Mike Bishop providing a ton of problems for anyone in the AFL (if memory serves, AD MacPherson went nutso last year on Chicago as well), especially this Rush team who still looks vulnerable, but something tells me that the Rush take care of business handlely in this one, knowing that they are very fortunate to be right in the playoff push in their conference despite some real bad losses.
--AFLGuru
I'm not sure what to make of CHI just yet. Would like to see them 100% healthy to see what they can really do. They better get healthy fast: NO comes to town next week.
I still think AZ is dead. The difference here is that the team does not like the coaching staff. You can tell. They griped before the season about having spent so many years under one system and then having to learn a whole new one. I know that under their breath Bonner and Gatewood and the others are cursing the new owner for cutting costs and getting rid of White for Shell. They have to be. And when Bonner comes out and says "The way we play in the red zone, I'd just onside kick us and make us play from the 10 and in," that shows no confidence. I think this team is figuring that it's over. Three great years with great runs, but it's over. Under White I would not be saying that, but of course, they wouldn't be 1-5. Shell said it's his fault, that he is not getting it done. No kidding. He has messed that team up. TB meanwhile is now 100% healthy from what I can tell. Marcum came out after last week and said that now he can call a complete game knowing all his players are in their proper positions. I just see two teams going opposite ways. I see TB by 14 in this one. Bonner's QB rating is 63.3. That's worse than CHAD SALISBURY, and we saw how horrible he was and what happened to him. I know you say AZ can turn it around. But I'm not gonna wait for it. I'm fading this team until they prove it. Last week was their big chance; they pointed to it as a chance to get back in it. Nice effort there, Ratts.
I still think AZ is dead. The difference here is that the team does not like the coaching staff. You can tell. They griped before the season about having spent so many years under one system and then having to learn a whole new one. I know that under their breath Bonner and Gatewood and the others are cursing the new owner for cutting costs and getting rid of White for Shell. They have to be. And when Bonner comes out and says "The way we play in the red zone, I'd just onside kick us and make us play from the 10 and in," that shows no confidence. I think this team is figuring that it's over. Three great years with great runs, but it's over. Under White I would not be saying that, but of course, they wouldn't be 1-5. Shell said it's his fault, that he is not getting it done. No kidding. He has messed that team up. TB meanwhile is now 100% healthy from what I can tell. Marcum came out after last week and said that now he can call a complete game knowing all his players are in their proper positions. I just see two teams going opposite ways. I see TB by 14 in this one. Bonner's QB rating is 63.3. That's worse than CHAD SALISBURY, and we saw how horrible he was and what happened to him. I know you say AZ can turn it around. But I'm not gonna wait for it. I'm fading this team until they prove it. Last week was their big chance; they pointed to it as a chance to get back in it. Nice effort there, Ratts.
As reported by Arenafan....
Dolezel went in Monday for a final medical check of his broken right middle finger and he expects to take the field Saturday at Columbus as Las Vegas (3-3) begins a stretch of five out of seven games on the road. "I expect (Clint) to play, but the final word from the doctor hasn't been given yet," James said.
Dolezel went in Monday for a final medical check of his broken right middle finger and he expects to take the field Saturday at Columbus as Las Vegas (3-3) begins a stretch of five out of seven games on the road. "I expect (Clint) to play, but the final word from the doctor hasn't been given yet," James said.
Dolezel "one step away."
http://www.lasvegassun.com/sunbin/stories/births/2005/mar/08/518411656.html
Any news on Philyaw???
http://www.lasvegassun.com/sunbin/stories/births/2005/mar/08/518411656.html
Any news on Philyaw???
