Guru's Golden Picks: Arena Week 7

[MathProf]

Line Moves - 3/9

I noticed Pinny dropped LV to -3.5 and a few other .5 point changes.

Anybody know if there are other books posting lines at this time?

I tried Olympus and Bestcris but no lines at either.

 

[AFLGuru]

No lines elsewhere yet... Later in the day Olympic and BETCRIS will open them up.

If Dolezel can play, he'll play.

 

[MathProf]

LV line

Hey, you're supposed to be on Spring Break!

Could this move be due to Riggs posting his
"power line" at even for the game?

I wish that Jeff Sagarin would put up his power
numbers for Arena; his NFL and NBA numbers are
excellent.

I suspect that LV is a clear take at this number
but even better at -3.

 

[AFLGuru]

No, it's because of the Dolezel injury. If he plays, that team is, no joke, 10 points better. Craig Whelihan is possibly the worst QB in the AFL... hell, he went from NFL backup to AFL starter to AFL backup to af2 starter to af2 backup to af2 starter and now back as an AFL emergency QB... and Vegas went 1-1 with him at the helm somehow...

And I know, Spring Break... Why the hell am I even awake at this hour of the day? Guess I'm that stuck on the AFL!

 

[MathProf]

LV back to -5!

Would you believe it? I guess the info about the QB
was enough to push it back, probably to higher.

Can't believe I missed the -3.5:monsters-

Hope you nailed it.

 

[scottw]

Whelihan the worst? He wasn't even the worst on that team. Rod Robinson had more turnovers than a bakery. He was HIDEOUS. 13 points against GA? I have NO idea how they beat NY with him, and I watched that game.

<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=2 width="96%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD></TD><TD align=right>Comp</TD><TD align=right>Att</TD><TD align=right>%</TD><TD align=right>Yds</TD><TD align=right>TD</TD><TD align=right>INT</TD><TD align=right>QB Rat.</TD></TR><TR><TD align=left>Craig Whelihan</TD><TD align=right>53</TD><TD align=right>84</TD><TD align=right>63.1</TD></TD><TD align=right>632</TD><TD align=right>10</TD><TD align=right>2</TD><TD align=right>105.8</TD></TD></TR><TR><TD align=left>Rod Robinson</TD><TD align=right>44</TD><TD align=right>64</TD><TD align=right>68.8</TD></TD><TD align=right>452</TD><TD align=right>5</TD><TD align=right>6</TD><TD align=right>69.3</TD></TD></TR><TR><TD align=left>Clint Dolezel</TD><TD align=right>36</TD><TD align=right>60</TD><TD align=right>60.0</TD></TD><TD align=right>509</TD><TD align=right>7</TD><TD align=right>4</TD><TD align=right>88.8</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

 

[TOMMYB]

Here's The Gist Of The Article Published In The Lv Review Journal This Morn.

Dolezel Returned To Practice On Tue. He Threw About 20 Passes.
Coach Will Platoon Him And Whelihan In Practice In Case He Can't Go.
They Are Taking A Wait And See Attitude As To Swelling And If The Pain Returns.

He Went 1-1 In The Games He Started But Did Not Play That Well According To My Qb Ratings. He Knows He Will Be Rusty And His Timing With The Recievers May Be Off A Little .

Its My Feeling He Will Play But How Effective He Will Be Is Up For Grabs , In Order For Them To Win And Cover The Defense Will Have To Carry Them Against A Weak Opponent This Week.

Any Ideas On This Guru.

 

[AFLGuru]

If Dolezel can go, Vegas would be nuts not to start him with as bad as the offense has been. And I'm going off of experience with Whelihan, Scott. I throw out numbers when dealing with stuff like this when I've seen the QBs play a ton. I know he's terrible. I watched Wheels for a season in Orlando, and also know that he fumbles more balls under center than anyone I've ever seen (1 last week against Austin that cost them 7 points). He just makes some poor decisions. The offense is very vanilla with Whelihan in there... in fact they only took 3 deep shots the entire game against Austin, two of which were called back for penalties. Anyone can complete 63% of their passes in this league when the hardest pass to make is an 8 yard out. Also helps when you've got a healthy Marcus Nash in the lineup, something Dolezel and Robinson didn't have.

A lot of what I'm basing this Vegas team off of is the surge they went on in the last 5 games of last season when they were the best offensive and defensive team in the AFL at the same time. Look for these guys to light it up when Dolezel gets back into the swing of things, as Nash will finally have a QB that can throw him the ball the length of the field. Adding Joe Douglass to last year's offense can only help. And Columbus is bad... really bad... they snuck up on Chicago, but aside from that, haven't put together a complete game yet. The defense is solid on Columbus, but the offense is still lackluster at best. D'Orazio looks a lot better than Salisbury did, so that's at least one plus for the offense, but there are no WRs on that team whatsoever, and the line is terrible on both sides of the ball. If Dolezel plays, even if he's not completely healthy, he's going to have all the time in the world to throw, which is something that San Jose didn't give him in their first loss of the season. This team did something right by blowing out LA in the first game of the season (game wasn't as close as the I believe 9 point scoreline indicated), and I believe that you will see the cream rise in this game if Dolezel plays.

 

[scottw]

I absolutely agree that if Dolezel is healthy you play him. All Whelihan did was stop the turnover bleeding. He did not put up points. 40 and 41 vs. NAS and AUS is pitiful. Amazing they won one of those.

 

[AFLGuru]

2 turnovers isn't exactly stopping the bleeding... The red zone efficiency went up with Whelihan, but it still isn't that great. Look for Dolezel to make the smarter throws inside the red zone, including learning that throwing the ball away means NOT hitting the crossbar. There's no shame in 40 vs. Nashville, because more often than not, that 40 is enough to beat them, and their defense is solid. Austin.... that's a different story.... I'm just going to say that I did bet under in that game as well... lol... At least something went right...

--AFLGuru

 

[scottw]

I would say that two turnovers IS an improvement for this team. Before Whelihan, they had 15 turnovers in 4 games. That's almost 4 per game! That's insane. When you give it up 3.75 times a game, forget it. Even losing it twice on turnovers can mean defeat, much less 3.75.

 

[AFLGuru]

Lol... It's a tribute to just how good the defense is on that team...

 

[AFLGuru]

Here come the other books... Pinny is offline on a lot of stuff... I'll be back with the up-to-the-minute lines when they start opening again.

 

[AFLGuru]

<TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width="98%" bgColor=#000000 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD align=middle width=35>451</TD><TD width=185>Philadelphia Soul</TD><TD align=middle width=85 bgColor=#666666> </TD><TD align=middle width=85 bgColor=#666666> </TD><TD width=45 bgColor=#666666> </TD><TD width=85 bgColor=#666666> </TD><TD width=85 bgColor=#666666> </TD></TR><TR><TD align=middle width=35>452</TD><TD width=185>San Jose Sabercats</TD><TD align=middle width=85 bgColor=#666666>-9½</TD><TD align=middle width=85 bgColor=#666666>107</TD><TD width=45 bgColor=#666666> </TD><TD width=85 bgColor=#666666> </TD><TD width=85 bgColor=#666666> </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE> <TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width="98%" border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#800000 height=20><TD width=225>Saturday, March 12, 2005</TD><TD width=75 bgColor=#ffffff>Game/2ndH</TD><TD align=middle width=55>1stH</TD><TD align=middle width=55>1stQ</TD><TD align=middle width=55>2ndQ</TD><TD align=middle width=55>3rdQ</TD><TD align=middle width=55>4thQ</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE> <TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width="98%" bgColor=#003366 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD align=middle width=35>#</TD><TD width=200>Team Name </TD><TD align=right width=95>Spread </TD><TD align=middle width=95>Total</TD><TD align=middle width=55>MoneyLn</TD><TD align=right width=85>T1 Total </TD><TD align=right width=85>T2 Total </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width="98%" bgColor=#000000 border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#363636><TD width="100%"><SMALL>7:00 pm Week 7 </SMALL></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width="98%" bgColor=#000000 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD align=middle width=35>453</TD><TD width=185>Georgia Force</TD><TD align=middle width=85 bgColor=#666666> </TD><TD align=middle width=85 bgColor=#666666> </TD><TD width=45 bgColor=#666666> </TD><TD width=85 bgColor=#666666> </TD><TD width=85 bgColor=#666666> </TD></TR><TR><TD align=middle width=35>454</TD><TD width=185>New York Dragons</TD><TD align=middle width=85 bgColor=#666666>-6½</TD><TD align=middle width=85 bgColor=#666666>97</TD><TD width=45 bgColor=#666666> </TD><TD width=85 bgColor=#666666> </TD><TD width=85 bgColor=#666666> </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width="98%" bgColor=#000000 border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#363636><TD width="100%"><SMALL>7:00 pm Week 7 </SMALL></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width="98%" bgColor=#000000 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD align=middle width=35>455</TD><TD width=185>Las Vegas Gladiators</TD><TD align=middle width=85 bgColor=#666666>-5½</TD><TD align=middle width=85 bgColor=#666666>97½</TD><TD width=45 bgColor=#666666> </TD><TD width=85 bgColor=#666666> </TD><TD width=85 bgColor=#666666> </TD></TR><TR><TD align=middle width=35>456</TD><TD width=185>Columbus Destroyers</TD><TD align=middle width=85 bgColor=#666666> </TD><TD align=middle width=85 bgColor=#666666> </TD><TD width=45 bgColor=#666666> </TD><TD width=85 bgColor=#666666> </TD><TD width=85 bgColor=#666666> </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width="98%" bgColor=#000000 border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#363636><TD width="100%"><SMALL>8:30 pm Week 7 </SMALL></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width="98%" bgColor=#000000 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD align=middle width=35>457</TD><TD width=185>Colorado Crush</TD><TD align=middle width=85 bgColor=#666666>-8</TD><TD align=middle width=85 bgColor=#666666>96</TD><TD width=45 bgColor=#666666> </TD><TD width=85 bgColor=#666666> </TD><TD width=85 bgColor=#666666> </TD></TR><TR><TD align=middle width=35>458</TD><TD width=185>Nashville Kats</TD><TD align=middle width=85 bgColor=#666666> </TD><TD align=middle width=85 bgColor=#666666> </TD><TD width=45 bgColor=#666666> </TD><TD width=85 bgColor=#666666> </TD><TD width=85 bgColor=#666666> </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE> <TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width="98%" border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#800000 height=20><TD width=225>Sunday, March 13, 2005</TD><TD width=75 bgColor=#ffffff>Game/2ndH</TD><TD align=middle width=55>1stH</TD><TD align=middle width=55>1stQ</TD><TD align=middle width=55>2ndQ</TD><TD align=middle width=55>3rdQ</TD><TD align=middle width=55>4thQ</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE> <TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width="98%" bgColor=#003366 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD align=middle width=35>#</TD><TD width=200>Team Name </TD><TD align=right width=95>Spread </TD><TD align=middle width=95>Total</TD><TD align=middle width=55>MoneyLn</TD><TD align=right width=85>T1 Total </TD><TD align=right width=85>T2 Total </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width="98%" bgColor=#000000 border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#363636><TD width="100%"><SMALL>12:00 pm (NBC) Week 7 </SMALL></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width="98%" bgColor=#000000 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD align=middle width=35>459</TD><TD width=185>Chicago Rush</TD><TD align=middle width=85 bgColor=#666666>-9</TD><TD align=middle width=85 bgColor=#666666>95½</TD><TD width=45 bgColor=#666666> </TD><TD width=85 bgColor=#666666> </TD><TD width=85 bgColor=#666666> </TD></TR><TR><TD align=middle width=35>460</TD><TD width=185>Grand Rapids Rampage</TD><TD align=middle width=85 bgColor=#666666> </TD><TD align=middle width=85 bgColor=#666666> </TD><TD width=45 bgColor=#666666> </TD><TD width=85 bgColor=#666666> </TD><TD width=85 bgColor=#666666> </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width="98%" bgColor=#000000 border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#363636><TD width="100%"><SMALL>12:00 pm (NBC) Week 7 </SMALL></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width="98%" bgColor=#000000 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD align=middle width=35>461</TD><TD width=185>Arizona Rattlers</TD><TD align=middle width=85 bgColor=#666666> </TD><TD align=middle width=85 bgColor=#666666> </TD><TD width=45 bgColor=#666666> </TD><TD width=85 bgColor=#666666> </TD><TD width=85 bgColor=#666666> </TD></TR><TR><TD align=middle width=35>462</TD><TD width=185>Tampa Bay Storm</TD><TD align=middle width=85 bgColor=#666666>-7½</TD><TD align=middle width=85 bgColor=#666666>103</TD><TD width=45 bgColor=#666666> </TD><TD width=85 bgColor=#666666> </TD><TD width=85 bgColor=#666666> </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width="98%" bgColor=#000000 border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#363636><TD width="100%"><SMALL>3:00 pm Week 7 </SMALL></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width="98%" bgColor=#000000 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD align=middle width=35>463</TD><TD width=185>Orlando Predators</TD><TD align=middle width=85 bgColor=#666666> </TD><TD align=middle width=85 bgColor=#666666> </TD><TD width=45 bgColor=#666666> </TD><TD width=85 bgColor=#666666> </TD><TD width=85 bgColor=#666666> </TD></TR><TR><TD align=middle width=35>464</TD><TD width=185>New Orlean VooDoo</TD><TD align=middle width=85 bgColor=#666666>-3</TD><TD align=middle width=85 bgColor=#666666>99½</TD><TD width=45 bgColor=#666666> </TD><TD width=85 bgColor=#666666> </TD><TD width=85 bgColor=#666666> </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width="98%" bgColor=#000000 border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#363636><TD width="100%"><SMALL>4:00 pm Week 7 </SMALL></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width="98%" bgColor=#000000 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD align=middle width=35>465</TD><TD width=185>Dallas Desperados</TD><TD align=middle width=85 bgColor=#666666>-7</TD><TD align=middle width=85 bgColor=#666666>106</TD><TD width=45 bgColor=#666666> </TD><TD width=85 bgColor=#666666> </TD><TD width=85 bgColor=#666666> </TD></TR><TR><TD align=middle width=35>466</TD><TD width=185>Austin Wranglers</TD><TD align=middle width=85 bgColor=#666666> </TD><TD align=middle width=85 bgColor=#666666> </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

 

[scottw]

I grabbed CHI over 95.5, LV under 97.5, and DAL over 102. That 102 flew up in a heartbeat.

 

[AFLGuru]

Quicker than I...

 

[scottw]

The LV and CHI totals are still there. Pinny dropped CHI from 105 to 97.5 before I could hit the 105 for a middle opp.

 

[AFLGuru]

Adding: Chicago vs. Grand Rapids over 100 (3 units, +117)

 

[scottw]

Do you not have Olympic? CHI-GR still at 95.5 there! And it's 97.5 at PIN. Why over 100?

 

[AFLGuru]

I know, I don't... 95.5 is REALLY generous...