You GOTTA get OLY. They offer 1st quarter and 1st half betting on arena, PIN doesn't. And OLY does not give a crap what Pinny has posted; they just do their own thing. If OLY simply mirrored PINNY's line, I can see not having OLY, but man, they don't. 102 on DAL-AUS? FINE WITH ME! And, if you have OLY, you will therefore have middling opps aplenty in this league. Even now, 20 minutes after OLY put their lines up, PINNY has AZ-TB at 97 and OLY has it at 102. PINNY still has DAL-AUS at 109.5, OLY at 106. Middling opps that aren't super, but hey, could happen. I have middled with tighter margins before. GET TO OLY NOW, MY MAN!!! They are good to deal with just a heavy Jamaican accent, mon.
One edit... the over/under in the Chicago game was 99.5, not 100. My apologies. So to correct it.
Chicago @ Grand Rapids over 99.5, not 100
Interesting tactic here used by Pinnacle of changing the juice instead of the actual line. Pinny's opening card looked better than Olympic's in terms of accuracy within. I think the Olympic card is VERY favorable.
So in the Chicago/Grand Rapids game...
Philyaw's status is still up in the air. Though the offense has looked pretty putred the past couple weeks, this is Grand Rapids we're talking about. Though they're going to stop someone at some point, it doesn't appear like this will be the week either. Every GR game has soared over, so I guess we're playing with fire here, knowing that GR will play an under at some point, but it's a percentage play once again. Bishop has had the offense moving really well of late, scoring over 55 PPG since he has taken over at starting QB (the number is off I'm sure, but the stats aren't in front of me... I don't recall them not getting to 50 in a game that he started yet). That being said, Chicago needs to get to 45 to reach our over... on Grand Rapids' defense... allowing over 60 ppg this season... have fun with this. Even if Todd Hammel is QBing Chicago, the Rush have to get to 50 in the game. Even the best of defenses that Grand Rapids has faced they've been throwing points on. I had the o/u in the middle of the two numbers (105 and 95) but leaning towards the higher number... meaning this is a solid play, ESPECIALLY if Philyaw is healthy. If that's the case, this game reaches 110 easy.
For the Vegas game... I've done a lot of explanation already, and though the offense gets better with Dolezel on the field... the defense does too. Fewer bad spots the defense has to take over in. I really believe this game stays under my 90 from before, but this 96.5 is generous.
Georgia is pissing me off. I don't know why people are jumping New York in this game, but it sure looks like the critical number of 7 is going to be passed over with little regard. I still like this Georgia team to pull the upset... points are generous. Especially 7 of them.
--AFLGuru:toast:
Chicago @ Grand Rapids over 99.5, not 100
Interesting tactic here used by Pinnacle of changing the juice instead of the actual line. Pinny's opening card looked better than Olympic's in terms of accuracy within. I think the Olympic card is VERY favorable.
So in the Chicago/Grand Rapids game...
Philyaw's status is still up in the air. Though the offense has looked pretty putred the past couple weeks, this is Grand Rapids we're talking about. Though they're going to stop someone at some point, it doesn't appear like this will be the week either. Every GR game has soared over, so I guess we're playing with fire here, knowing that GR will play an under at some point, but it's a percentage play once again. Bishop has had the offense moving really well of late, scoring over 55 PPG since he has taken over at starting QB (the number is off I'm sure, but the stats aren't in front of me... I don't recall them not getting to 50 in a game that he started yet). That being said, Chicago needs to get to 45 to reach our over... on Grand Rapids' defense... allowing over 60 ppg this season... have fun with this. Even if Todd Hammel is QBing Chicago, the Rush have to get to 50 in the game. Even the best of defenses that Grand Rapids has faced they've been throwing points on. I had the o/u in the middle of the two numbers (105 and 95) but leaning towards the higher number... meaning this is a solid play, ESPECIALLY if Philyaw is healthy. If that's the case, this game reaches 110 easy.
For the Vegas game... I've done a lot of explanation already, and though the offense gets better with Dolezel on the field... the defense does too. Fewer bad spots the defense has to take over in. I really believe this game stays under my 90 from before, but this 96.5 is generous.
Georgia is pissing me off. I don't know why people are jumping New York in this game, but it sure looks like the critical number of 7 is going to be passed over with little regard. I still like this Georgia team to pull the upset... points are generous. Especially 7 of them.
--AFLGuru:toast:
And first quarter and first half betting is foolish in the AFL. If you don't get the ball first, it's real hard to cover points... I'm not betting on a coin toss in any situation. O/us I find to be more difficult in the first half as well... I base what I see in the 1st half to make the 2nd half bets.
I've come to the general consensus of lines between the two books to be advantage Pinnacle. Pinny's lines are a lot closer than Olympic's are, but because of it, Pinny has to change juice lines to prevent scalps. I don't blame them for this either. Once again, it's advantage us. I believe you'll see the o/u in the Chicago game back up to, oh 101, 102, something like that, by game time... Meaning over the 99.5 +117 is a scalp and a middle shot. Regardless, I think this is just a poor number set by Olympic that needed to be taken advantage of.
That 95.5 CHI-GR is still there, an hour later. GR has not had an under all year. I have only one unit on it, but I may play another.
With over 95.5 and GR +9, if GR just gets to 43 points I cannot possibly lose both bets. They will get there. With Bishop 56, 61, 66, and 50 points so far, the 61 and 66 at home.
With over 95.5 and GR +9, if GR just gets to 43 points I cannot possibly lose both bets. They will get there. With Bishop 56, 61, 66, and 50 points so far, the 61 and 66 at home.
Can someone explain to me how OLY has their lowest posted total of all the games involving a team that allows 66 a game and scores 54.2 per game? HUH? GR has not gone under ALL YEAR. 95.5? And LV-CMB, two teams that are next to last and dead last in TDs scored, and LV #1 in defense, at 97.5? WHAT ARE THEY THINKING???
I remember a couple years ago, the players were very patient. We would see the numbers, and know they were bad. But we all waited to play them, until the market copied the bad numbers. In a sense, it was a game of chicken. You watch the line, and wait as long as you can. But if it starts moving, you have to jump in and get it.
That GRR/Chi total is bad. The only real question is, will the medium fish wait until Friday to play it, so that the big fish can feast as well?
That GRR/Chi total is bad. The only real question is, will the medium fish wait until Friday to play it, so that the big fish can feast as well?
