44-14 New Orleans... They're gonna double up Columbus I think. Not convinced Columbus scores 30 in the game, and they're gonna need to to keep from sticking within double the number. Under looking alright if Columbus gives up like it looks like.
Columbus at midfield with 3rd and about 6 with 10 minutes left in the 3rd.
Didn't know Monty Montgomery got cut... interesting.
Columbus at midfield with 3rd and about 6 with 10 minutes left in the 3rd.
Didn't know Monty Montgomery got cut... interesting.
If Nashville can keep Montgomery somehow and keep even 2/3 of this talent together... and if Rislov ends up being alright, this team can be REALLY scary next year. Pat Sperdeuto is doing it right with this squad. Building it around big guys with talent, and has an anchor on defense in James Baron.
I'm gonna put New Orleans under and the double as W's... if I've gotta change it tomorrow morning, I will... but by the time I'm done with these writeups, the game will be much closer to over.
So tonight...
New Orleans/Columbus under 101.5 W (+2.86 units)
Will a team score double its opponent? YES W (+2.09 units)
Friday Card
Georgia (-17.5) vs. Grand Rapids W (+2.38 units)
Orlando (-6) vs. New York W (+4.76 units)
Orlando/New York under 101.5 L (-4 units)
Orlando/New York under 49 first half L (-2.5 units)
For the weekend thus far, pretty nice stuff... 4-2 (+5.59 units)
YTD
Against the opening line: 33-15-1 (68.75%)
Against that same closing line: 30-18-1 (62.5%)
Sides Record: 24-17 (58.54%) (+29.54 units)
Totals Record: 23-13 (63.89%) (+26.42 units)
Parlays: 1-2 (+0.55 units)
1st half: 1-3 (-3.59 units)
2nd half: 10-10 (+1.85 units)
Teasers: 0-1 (-3 units)
Props: 5-5 (+5.08 units)
Composite Record
YTD: 64-51 (55.65%)
Net: +56.85 units
Actual ATS (Sides + Totals + 1st halfs + 2nd halfs): 58-43 (57.43%)
Units Wagered: 325 units
Units Won: 56.85 units
Net %: 17.49% profit per unit wagered
Sunday Card
Philly/LV under 107 (3 units -105): Worth mention here is my system of stats that somehow spat out this total at 93 points.... yes, 93... I went back and checked it SEVERAL times over, and allowed myself to put this game at no lower than 100. I forced myself to bet anything over 105 points total for this game. I deserve to lose because I'm "forcing" myself onto this play. So don't be surprised if the game rides over, especially with Marcus Nash and Ricky Ross playing for the Gladiators, and Graziani chucking the ball all over the place. I know what stats forced this game to such a low total and I hope that those things coming out glaring tomorrow, but I'm not very convinced of it. This is a bet I'm probably going to look back at and curse myself for taking, but VERY rarely do I get something spit out at me this far off from my numbers. As I've said, I do about 33% stats based and 66% intuition based when I cap games, but this number and bet were all that 33%, as my tuition thinks this game is gonna feature 120+ in it. We'll see whether my stats are that good or my intuition is that good... I shouldn't have played this either way though to be honest with you, but in respect for my system, I'll let it ride. We'll probably buy some of this back in the 2nd half if possible.
Philadelphia (+4) vs. Las Vegas (2 units -105): Dog has to bark at some point this week... None of them have even shown a pulse yet. Philly knows a loss at any point from here on out and their season is probably done. Unfortunately for us, Vegas faces a similar quandry, but they have a bit of margin for error... Though the way that Chicago and LA have played of late, a slip here and Vegas can find themselves two back with 4 to play, a lead that is near impossible to make up. Philly's on a roll since ditching Mike Trigg after the New Orleans loss. Las Vegas can't seem to pull out games late. Seems like that San Jose game demoralized them, even though they've played a bastard of a schedule of late. Both teams are healthy at the moment, but in a game such as this where points should be flying onto the board (hopefully no more than 106 of them.....), 4 points is good to have on your side. It's a small play because of the magnitude of the game, but with the cross-country flight and the look on Vegas' face that they have given up suggests one Philly stop might be enough to cause the Glads to unravel on the road.
Nashville (+9) vs. LA (4 units -105): Stickiest game of the week by far. LA travels cross-country to the cover-crazy Nashville Kats. The Kats have been on the right end of their last two (even though the most recent was a tie), and really have some momentum. The defense is flat out playing nasty ball right now, and if the offense can somehow muster 35, we'll probably be alright with this one. LA will be playing with heavy hearts obviously, and though I could see them totally dismantling Nashville for it, a very likely scenario has the Kats just jumping early and the Avengers being out of it the rest of the way. From a football standpoint, Al Lucas meant a lot to this Avenger team up front, and if they can't get pressure of Leon Murray, even he should have a good game if he can avoid throwing the ball to Greg Hopkins in the middle of the LA defense. 9 points is far too generous a number, as is the TD that most books are offering now. 4 or 5 is fair. Anything more than 6 is highway robbery playing the percentages. Also, just like Philly, some dog is probably covering this week, and this looks like a prime candidate, not only for a cover, but possibly an outright win for a Nashville team that is figuring out how to win games finally. They'll play spoiler big time down the stretch, and this could be a big spot for it.
Chicago/Colorado under 105 (2 units -105)
Colorado/Chicago under 50.5 1st half (2 units -105)
Raymond Philyaw under 5.5 TD+INT (4 units -108)
John Dutton under 6.5 TD+INT (2.5 units +119)
Check the quasi-write up from before.
So I finished this in about 20 minutes... and New Orleans just made it a 64-20 game with less than 5 minutes left, all but sealing both bets for sure. See you all in the morning.
So tonight...
New Orleans/Columbus under 101.5 W (+2.86 units)
Will a team score double its opponent? YES W (+2.09 units)
Friday Card
Georgia (-17.5) vs. Grand Rapids W (+2.38 units)
Orlando (-6) vs. New York W (+4.76 units)
Orlando/New York under 101.5 L (-4 units)
Orlando/New York under 49 first half L (-2.5 units)
For the weekend thus far, pretty nice stuff... 4-2 (+5.59 units)
YTD
Against the opening line: 33-15-1 (68.75%)
Against that same closing line: 30-18-1 (62.5%)
Sides Record: 24-17 (58.54%) (+29.54 units)
Totals Record: 23-13 (63.89%) (+26.42 units)
Parlays: 1-2 (+0.55 units)
1st half: 1-3 (-3.59 units)
2nd half: 10-10 (+1.85 units)
Teasers: 0-1 (-3 units)
Props: 5-5 (+5.08 units)
Composite Record
YTD: 64-51 (55.65%)
Net: +56.85 units
Actual ATS (Sides + Totals + 1st halfs + 2nd halfs): 58-43 (57.43%)
Units Wagered: 325 units
Units Won: 56.85 units
Net %: 17.49% profit per unit wagered
Sunday Card
Philly/LV under 107 (3 units -105): Worth mention here is my system of stats that somehow spat out this total at 93 points.... yes, 93... I went back and checked it SEVERAL times over, and allowed myself to put this game at no lower than 100. I forced myself to bet anything over 105 points total for this game. I deserve to lose because I'm "forcing" myself onto this play. So don't be surprised if the game rides over, especially with Marcus Nash and Ricky Ross playing for the Gladiators, and Graziani chucking the ball all over the place. I know what stats forced this game to such a low total and I hope that those things coming out glaring tomorrow, but I'm not very convinced of it. This is a bet I'm probably going to look back at and curse myself for taking, but VERY rarely do I get something spit out at me this far off from my numbers. As I've said, I do about 33% stats based and 66% intuition based when I cap games, but this number and bet were all that 33%, as my tuition thinks this game is gonna feature 120+ in it. We'll see whether my stats are that good or my intuition is that good... I shouldn't have played this either way though to be honest with you, but in respect for my system, I'll let it ride. We'll probably buy some of this back in the 2nd half if possible.
Philadelphia (+4) vs. Las Vegas (2 units -105): Dog has to bark at some point this week... None of them have even shown a pulse yet. Philly knows a loss at any point from here on out and their season is probably done. Unfortunately for us, Vegas faces a similar quandry, but they have a bit of margin for error... Though the way that Chicago and LA have played of late, a slip here and Vegas can find themselves two back with 4 to play, a lead that is near impossible to make up. Philly's on a roll since ditching Mike Trigg after the New Orleans loss. Las Vegas can't seem to pull out games late. Seems like that San Jose game demoralized them, even though they've played a bastard of a schedule of late. Both teams are healthy at the moment, but in a game such as this where points should be flying onto the board (hopefully no more than 106 of them.....), 4 points is good to have on your side. It's a small play because of the magnitude of the game, but with the cross-country flight and the look on Vegas' face that they have given up suggests one Philly stop might be enough to cause the Glads to unravel on the road.
Nashville (+9) vs. LA (4 units -105): Stickiest game of the week by far. LA travels cross-country to the cover-crazy Nashville Kats. The Kats have been on the right end of their last two (even though the most recent was a tie), and really have some momentum. The defense is flat out playing nasty ball right now, and if the offense can somehow muster 35, we'll probably be alright with this one. LA will be playing with heavy hearts obviously, and though I could see them totally dismantling Nashville for it, a very likely scenario has the Kats just jumping early and the Avengers being out of it the rest of the way. From a football standpoint, Al Lucas meant a lot to this Avenger team up front, and if they can't get pressure of Leon Murray, even he should have a good game if he can avoid throwing the ball to Greg Hopkins in the middle of the LA defense. 9 points is far too generous a number, as is the TD that most books are offering now. 4 or 5 is fair. Anything more than 6 is highway robbery playing the percentages. Also, just like Philly, some dog is probably covering this week, and this looks like a prime candidate, not only for a cover, but possibly an outright win for a Nashville team that is figuring out how to win games finally. They'll play spoiler big time down the stretch, and this could be a big spot for it.
Chicago/Colorado under 105 (2 units -105)
Colorado/Chicago under 50.5 1st half (2 units -105)
Raymond Philyaw under 5.5 TD+INT (4 units -108)
John Dutton under 6.5 TD+INT (2.5 units +119)
Check the quasi-write up from before.
So I finished this in about 20 minutes... and New Orleans just made it a 64-20 game with less than 5 minutes left, all but sealing both bets for sure. See you all in the morning.
