Guru's Golden Picks: AFL Week 12

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Just so everyone knows, the Predators' injury report isn't right on Arenafan.... I haven't looked elsewhere and don't know if these are typos or just bad reports, but there's a few listed injuries for the Preds that aren't.

Justin Cleveland is listed as questionable, but the Preds fully expect him to play tomorrow night.

Buck Gurley is on IR, not doubtful, and we might not see him the rest of the season... Big loss for the Preds.

Reggie Doster's likely out for Orlando. They've signed Arkie Thompson in his place (actually in Gurley's place... guess they're going with one more WR/DB and one less OL/DL), who will step in as a defensive sub late in the quarters.

Idris Price is also probably out, but again, they can't put him on IR (because they put Gurley there instead).

The Preds have had a few new linemen and an old friend at FB considering coming out of retirement to give the team a hand in Rick Hamilton, who was an absolute monster for Orlando over the years. Don't know how in shape Hamilton is to play again, but any help Orlando could get at FB would be of use right now with Price and Moye-Moore on the shelf.

Fryzel, Super Joe, and Harris are all fine and will be suited tomorrow night. Orlando will probably suit one extra lineman tomorrow in lieu of another WR. Oh yeah, Justin Skaggs really isn't hurt, he's just in the doghouse... and since Bret Cooper played oh so well last week and I don't think Jerrian James has been with the team all week, look for Skaggs to play. James is still in the doghouse after last week's antics.

Other injuries of note... Marcus Nash is questionable for Vegas. I haven't heard any more than that, but if I do, I'll let you all know. Fontaine's out again for Austin.

Hope this helps. Wish Orlando was fully healthy... They'd win by at least 4 scores if they were... but with no rushing game, that's why the number is lower.
 

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PROMISE, tomorrow night I'll do the write ups on the Saturday and Sunday games... Nothing's changed, don't worry... but I'm adding these plays...

Colorado/Chicago under 50.5 1st half (2 units -105)

Two props, one the biggest play of the year that I'll offer a small write up on right now and a more extensive one later...

Raymond Philyaw under 5.5 TD+INT (4 units -108)
John Dutton under 6.5 TD+INT (2.5 units +119)

This game will prove to be ugly. Chicago has played some of the ugliest football lately... especially the way they played against San Jose showed that their defense is for real. Harrell's TD streak will continue, but for Dutton to reach 7, he's gotta throw at least 5 TDs... I'm not sure these teams get to 50, and I'll give Clay Rush his FG. 1 rushing TD means Colorado's gotta get to 52 on this team to beat us unless he goes pick crazy. Chicago's defense SHOULD keep him under this total, and at the generous odds, I'll take my chances.

Now Philyaw... The Franchise is back to his old games once again. Scrappy play, finding WRs out of nowhere, running around like a chicken with his head cut off... GREAT football right now. Expect Chicago to get inside the 5 several times in this game, making for many Etu Molden and Bob McMillen rushing TDs. This team still loves to pound the football inside the 5. Also, Philyaw sneaking wouldn't be out of the question. Philyaw's struggled to get to 5 most of the past few weeks, and with the way I think especially the first half of this game will go, this is gonna be an ugly smashmouth game. The likelihood that Philyaw gets a bomb TD isn't good on Colorado's defense. And though Colorado's offense is raining points right now, they haven't played a defense this good in this hostile of an environment in weeks. I expect this game to look a lot like the first meeting between these squads, a narrow Rush victory that was played in a very ugly style. Colorado hasn't played nearly as well away from home this year, and they also kill the hurry up offense on the road. Chicago will pressure Dutton and slow the game down, and I look for both teams to have 8-9 legit possessions each. I'll take my chances at defensive stops.

Friday Card
Georgia (-17.5) vs. Grand Rapids (2.5 units -105)
Orlando (-6) vs. New York (5 units -105)
Orlando/New York under 101.5 (4 units -105)
 

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One more...

Will a team score double its opponent? YES (1.5 units +139)... Crappy odds on such a prop, but I believe either Georgia or Orlando does it tomorrow night. If not we're probably in some trouble, but I can see a number of games ending in such a way... I think one of these games on Sunday is gonna be rough, and one of them could be against us. If LA comes out fired up, THEY could do it as well. But if they don't, they get beat. Same goes with LV. They can double up Philly, but if they don't come out fired up, THEY'LL get beat.
 

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Only chance I think is GA. You have to have a horrible offense and horrible defense to get doubled up, and GR qualifies. Obviously, to double up the other guys, you need both a good offense and defense, which GA has.

Strangely, I think SJ could do it. They have been doing it at home this year. Doubled up both LV and PHL, and if DAL offense plays like last week, watch out.

Don't think ORL can do it because the offense is a bit lacking, and they are banged up. Don't think LV or anyone else has the ability to do it, but you never know. To get doubled up really takes a sucky offense more than anything. If you get to just 35 it takes 70 to do it.

GL with that.
 

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Degenerate--

Little value in Philly at 1... 1 kinda sucks... 1.5 maybe for a small play if you can find it or it rebounds back (which it probably will), but tread very lightly. The closer the game is supposed to be, obviously the more valuable the points.

Also at +124 or whatever it is, I'd still give it a shot. Odds say we're in a losing proposition and odds only matter when you when, so anything to about+120 I'd play as maybe a half unit less than me. 1 is probably sufficient.
 

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Do we have some followers here for the games tonight or am I just a fan of the Preds?
 

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Real late add... sorry folks...

Orlando/New York under 49 first half (2.5 units +104)
 

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1 missed PAT = money.... I'll take my chances with Brian Gowins and Rob Bironas missing one out of 7 PATs... and that's if the scoring gets THAT high, which I don't think will even come close
 

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You don't run on Orlando! Forced fumble by Idris Price, recovered by Fleming, Preds take over, no score but up a stop, 3 minutes into the game.
 

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Force up a stop... Grand Rapids trying to play with 9 men, and it still doesn't help them... so on the next play they've only got 7 men on the field... God bless the Rampage.

Preds miss the PAT, so there's our break. 6-0 Preds 5 minutes into the quarter.
 

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Cannot find any NY-ORL video or audio anywhere. Following PBP at arenafan.com/chat
 

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There isn't... You can't broadcast Preds games on the internet... so it's gametracker I guess... Georgia's gonna kill Grand Rapids..... Got the game on 790 the Zone here in town.
 

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I'll also be able to get a report from my dad at halftime, and since he's right next to the freakin' Preds bench, he'll know everything.
 

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Bishop I don't think has completed a pass yet for GR by the sounds of it. Just missing everyone. Nick Browder is apparently starting to throw in the tunnel. Preds back in the end zone. 13-6 Orlando up a stop.

Two Grand Rapids drives, 0 points. 7-0 Force working on going up the full two stops.
 

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Bishop: 0-6

Grand Rapids: 0 yards of offense

1st quarter's almost over.......
 

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Radio guys already previewing the Georgia/Orlando game for next week... that's how bad it is in this game. They're also b*tching about the officiating in general. Who's not b*tching about the refs? I'm going to enjoy listening to this game... Georgia picks up 4th and short and is now in the end zone. 13-0 PAT coming.

Preds give up a 4th and short, but the New York drive is taking time. Start of the 2nd quarter, 13-6 Preds.
 

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TD NY... another missed PAT... 13-12 Preds, about a minute into the 2nd quarter.
 

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