Kats win. Remy never had a chance. Unreal ending to this one. Kats got outplayed the entire 2nd half from the sound of it, and still came away with a W despite all sorts of problems. LA might have just tanked it. This COULD leave an opening for someone to come out of NOWHERE and grab a playoff spot if LA and LV both lose today.
Today was pretty craptastic... Ended up with a wild finish in Philly giving LV a much needed victory. Needed every bit of those points in the end, and got a bit of a gift on the last TD securing the 2nd half over as well, though costing Philly +4...
Philly/LV under 107 W (+2.86 units)
Philadelphia (+4) vs. Las Vegas L (-2 units)
Nashville (+9) vs. LA W (+3.81 units)Chicago/Colorado under 105 L (-2 units)
Colorado/Chicago under 50.5 1st half L (-2 units)
Raymond Philyaw under 5.5 TD+INT L (-4 units)
John Dutton under 6.5 TD+INT L (-2.5 units)
Colorado (-4) vs. Chicago 2nd half L (-3 units)
Las Vegas (pk) @ Philly 2nd half W (+1.91 units)
LV/Phi over 54 2nd half W (+1.91 units)
New Orleans/Columbus under 101.5 W (+2.86 units)
Will a team score double its opponent? YES W (+2.09 units)
Friday Card
Georgia (-17.5) vs. Grand Rapids W (+2.38 units)
Orlando (-6) vs. New York W (+4.76 units)
Orlando/New York under 101.5 L (-4 units)
Orlando/New York under 49 first half L (-2.5 units)
Final Week 12 tally: 9-9 (+0.58 units)... all of that work for under a unit...
YTD
Against the opening line: 35-17-1 (67.31%)
Against that same closing line: 32-20-1 (61.54%)
Sides Record: 25-18 (58.14%) (+31.35 units)
Totals Record: 24-14 (63.16%) (+27.28 units)
Parlays: 1-2 (+0.55 units)
1st half: 1-4 (-5.59 units)
2nd half: 12-11 (+2.67 units)
Teasers: 0-1 (-3 units)
Props: 5-7 (-1.42 units)
Composite Record
YTD: 68-57 (54.40%)
Net: +51.84 units
Actual ATS (Sides + Totals + 1st halfs + 2nd halfs): 62-47 (56.88%)
Units Wagered: 351.5 units
Units Won: 51.84 units
Net %: 14.75% profit per unit wagered
Futures Happenings...
Arizona Rattlers under 10 wins (2 units +110): As posted for weeks, the Ratts are done this season, at least getting to 10 wins. The LV victory should have finally put them away for the postseason. Assumed net: +2.2 units
Austin Wranglers under 6 wins (3 units -115): With a loss today, Austin will fall to 4-8 giving us a much more reasonable chance of picking this up. But with Tampa still being winless on the road, this is a tough test for them. I'll update later with the result. @ Arizona and @ Columbus wait for these guys, so even a loss today is critical for us... Also an Arizona victory is very probable next week, which could leave this team 5-11 and put us on the right side... However, I'd say 6 is the most likely number, meaning this is a push... but it's up in the air right now. For current thoughts though, I'll stick this as a push. Assumed net: +0.00 units
Columbus Destroyers under 7 wins (3 units -120): Quote from me when I first talked about this team... "They [Columbus] are one of the two worst run franchises in the Arena League (with Grand Rapids being the other)." True to form, another embarassing defeat at New Orleans leaves the Destroyers dead in the water. Assumed net: +2.4 units
Dallas Desperados under 6 wins (4 units -105): Dallas has been stuck on this 6 number for a long time. Though they're gonna win another game this season at some point, looking at the schedule, none of the games are gimmes, especially if they somehow lose this week @ Columbus. This will be the worst playoff-contending team in the AFL and though they might slip in because New York is fading at an equal clip, Dallas will get to the dreaded total of at least 8. Assumed net: -4 units
Los Angeles Avengers under 9 wins (2 units -115): Who knows what's going on in LA right now. Roxygurl, if you've got any info into the locker room, it'd be appreciated. I'd love to know this team's mindset going into the home stretch. The loss to Nashville was demoralizing this afternoon, and might just be due cause for a collapse. Arizona and Grand Rapids are left on the schedule, but so are dates with the Gladiators in Vegas, and... yeah, those Saberkitties in San Jose... good luck with that one LA... Hosting Chicago this week is interesting considering how much it'll mean to both teams and Chicago being on a roll. LA is now 6-5, and 8-8 is a very possible conclusion. After this week, we'll know much more. But for now, I think this looks solid for a push at worst. Assumed net: +1.71 units
Nashville Kats over 5.5 wins (3 units -130): Oh how that tie burned us! Nashville is finally starting to play good ball, and very quietly might have turned up the best defense the AFL has seen in quite some time. Nashville, at 3 wins isn't out of it completely, but close calls at the start of the season pretty much ended this dream for us... Still host Tampa next week and play Grand Rapids to get to possibly 5, but I can't see the Kats beating Colorado, Chicago, or San Jose to get over the hump. Assumed net: -3 units
New Orleans VooDoo over 9 wins (4 units -105): Voodoo are sitting pretty at 7-4, but have a very interesting schedule left at hand. Cupcake games against Grand Rapids and Austin left on the schedule, but also roadies to Orlando and Tampa, with a game against Colorado left. That Colorado game might be the push-or-win game for us, as I don't see the Voodoo beating the Preds in the Jungle if the game means something. I look for this Voodoo team to put the clamps on at some point and grit their way to a 10th win somehow, but it'll be a fight. Assumed net: +3.81 units
Orlando Predators over 9.5 wins (4 units -105): Preds are at 8-4 right now, and also have an interesting set of games left. Must wins at home with Georgia and New Orleans, and can't slips at Philly and at Austin. I don't THINK getting 2 more wins will be that difficult, but in this division and with Georgia and New Orleans remaining, anything can happen. Still, I'll venture to say the Preds will close 3-1 or 4-0 to end the regular season, and anything less than 2-2 would be considered a monumental collapse. Assumed net: +3.81 units
Now, we've also got the Arena Bowl winners of San Jose and Colorado at great odds. Both of those teams are in the playoffs. San Jose is going to walk away with their division. Colorado is going to have to fight hard only up a game now to Chicago, with the Rush owning the tiebreaker with the Crush. We'll talk about that though as the playoff season winds closer. Austin is currently up a stop on Tampa, but a long time left in this one.
--AFLGuru:toast:
Philly/LV under 107 W (+2.86 units)
Philadelphia (+4) vs. Las Vegas L (-2 units)
Nashville (+9) vs. LA W (+3.81 units)Chicago/Colorado under 105 L (-2 units)
Colorado/Chicago under 50.5 1st half L (-2 units)
Raymond Philyaw under 5.5 TD+INT L (-4 units)
John Dutton under 6.5 TD+INT L (-2.5 units)
Colorado (-4) vs. Chicago 2nd half L (-3 units)
Las Vegas (pk) @ Philly 2nd half W (+1.91 units)
LV/Phi over 54 2nd half W (+1.91 units)
New Orleans/Columbus under 101.5 W (+2.86 units)
Will a team score double its opponent? YES W (+2.09 units)
Friday Card
Georgia (-17.5) vs. Grand Rapids W (+2.38 units)
Orlando (-6) vs. New York W (+4.76 units)
Orlando/New York under 101.5 L (-4 units)
Orlando/New York under 49 first half L (-2.5 units)
Final Week 12 tally: 9-9 (+0.58 units)... all of that work for under a unit...
YTD
Against the opening line: 35-17-1 (67.31%)
Against that same closing line: 32-20-1 (61.54%)
Sides Record: 25-18 (58.14%) (+31.35 units)
Totals Record: 24-14 (63.16%) (+27.28 units)
Parlays: 1-2 (+0.55 units)
1st half: 1-4 (-5.59 units)
2nd half: 12-11 (+2.67 units)
Teasers: 0-1 (-3 units)
Props: 5-7 (-1.42 units)
Composite Record
YTD: 68-57 (54.40%)
Net: +51.84 units
Actual ATS (Sides + Totals + 1st halfs + 2nd halfs): 62-47 (56.88%)
Units Wagered: 351.5 units
Units Won: 51.84 units
Net %: 14.75% profit per unit wagered
Futures Happenings...
Arizona Rattlers under 10 wins (2 units +110): As posted for weeks, the Ratts are done this season, at least getting to 10 wins. The LV victory should have finally put them away for the postseason. Assumed net: +2.2 units
Austin Wranglers under 6 wins (3 units -115): With a loss today, Austin will fall to 4-8 giving us a much more reasonable chance of picking this up. But with Tampa still being winless on the road, this is a tough test for them. I'll update later with the result. @ Arizona and @ Columbus wait for these guys, so even a loss today is critical for us... Also an Arizona victory is very probable next week, which could leave this team 5-11 and put us on the right side... However, I'd say 6 is the most likely number, meaning this is a push... but it's up in the air right now. For current thoughts though, I'll stick this as a push. Assumed net: +0.00 units
Columbus Destroyers under 7 wins (3 units -120): Quote from me when I first talked about this team... "They [Columbus] are one of the two worst run franchises in the Arena League (with Grand Rapids being the other)." True to form, another embarassing defeat at New Orleans leaves the Destroyers dead in the water. Assumed net: +2.4 units
Dallas Desperados under 6 wins (4 units -105): Dallas has been stuck on this 6 number for a long time. Though they're gonna win another game this season at some point, looking at the schedule, none of the games are gimmes, especially if they somehow lose this week @ Columbus. This will be the worst playoff-contending team in the AFL and though they might slip in because New York is fading at an equal clip, Dallas will get to the dreaded total of at least 8. Assumed net: -4 units
Los Angeles Avengers under 9 wins (2 units -115): Who knows what's going on in LA right now. Roxygurl, if you've got any info into the locker room, it'd be appreciated. I'd love to know this team's mindset going into the home stretch. The loss to Nashville was demoralizing this afternoon, and might just be due cause for a collapse. Arizona and Grand Rapids are left on the schedule, but so are dates with the Gladiators in Vegas, and... yeah, those Saberkitties in San Jose... good luck with that one LA... Hosting Chicago this week is interesting considering how much it'll mean to both teams and Chicago being on a roll. LA is now 6-5, and 8-8 is a very possible conclusion. After this week, we'll know much more. But for now, I think this looks solid for a push at worst. Assumed net: +1.71 units
Nashville Kats over 5.5 wins (3 units -130): Oh how that tie burned us! Nashville is finally starting to play good ball, and very quietly might have turned up the best defense the AFL has seen in quite some time. Nashville, at 3 wins isn't out of it completely, but close calls at the start of the season pretty much ended this dream for us... Still host Tampa next week and play Grand Rapids to get to possibly 5, but I can't see the Kats beating Colorado, Chicago, or San Jose to get over the hump. Assumed net: -3 units
New Orleans VooDoo over 9 wins (4 units -105): Voodoo are sitting pretty at 7-4, but have a very interesting schedule left at hand. Cupcake games against Grand Rapids and Austin left on the schedule, but also roadies to Orlando and Tampa, with a game against Colorado left. That Colorado game might be the push-or-win game for us, as I don't see the Voodoo beating the Preds in the Jungle if the game means something. I look for this Voodoo team to put the clamps on at some point and grit their way to a 10th win somehow, but it'll be a fight. Assumed net: +3.81 units
Orlando Predators over 9.5 wins (4 units -105): Preds are at 8-4 right now, and also have an interesting set of games left. Must wins at home with Georgia and New Orleans, and can't slips at Philly and at Austin. I don't THINK getting 2 more wins will be that difficult, but in this division and with Georgia and New Orleans remaining, anything can happen. Still, I'll venture to say the Preds will close 3-1 or 4-0 to end the regular season, and anything less than 2-2 would be considered a monumental collapse. Assumed net: +3.81 units
Now, we've also got the Arena Bowl winners of San Jose and Colorado at great odds. Both of those teams are in the playoffs. San Jose is going to walk away with their division. Colorado is going to have to fight hard only up a game now to Chicago, with the Rush owning the tiebreaker with the Crush. We'll talk about that though as the playoff season winds closer. Austin is currently up a stop on Tampa, but a long time left in this one.
--AFLGuru:toast:
Whoops... never left the total on there for the futures... +6.93 units We'll also make a couple units off of the Arena Bowl champ near for certain, as we have two of the three big guns from the western side.
Sorry that took so long Chriscol, but I was mid-recap when I saw your post and didn't want to stop what I was doing.
Sorry that took so long Chriscol, but I was mid-recap when I saw your post and didn't want to stop what I was doing.
