GoSooners Bowl Season Thread With "Running Dogs"!

[GoSooners]

I didn't get the numbers for all of the teams. But these are the official numbers for the "running dogs". By the way, the reason why many of everybody's numbers are different than mine is my friend who calculates these numbers not only eliminates any division 1A teams on their schedule, he also eliminates any 1A teams that were on their competitors schedules, so there is no chance for the trickle down affect. For instance Floirda St. had 2 1A teams on their schedule. But he also elimates any 1A team that was on their ACC competitors schedule. So you might want to keep this in mind when you calculate these games next season. I think this is an impoortant key to this formula.

Navy +1.21
Colorado State +.01
BYU +.05
FAU +.76
Wisconsin +.73
La Tech +1.44
WMU +.90
Air Force +.68
Nebraska +1.12
Mississippi +.97
Kentucky +.11
Tulsa +.12

 

[midman2161]

Is the reason you are going against Navy using your formula due to the Wake having lost to em earlier in the year, graduating all those Seniors, motivation, etc.. usually seems like Navy would be a play for you.

 

[GoSooners]

Is the reason you are going against Navy using your formula due to the Wake having lost to em earlier in the year, graduating all those Seniors, motivation, etc.. usually seems like Navy would be a play for you.

midman...This was a very close decision for me. I almost pulled the trigger on Navy instead of Wake. Right now i feel that the coaching advantage goes to Grobe over Nimatalolo, who is in his first full year. I feel like Grobe will make adjustments to his defense to shut down the Navy running attack a little better this time around. And I think there is an advantage to having seen the option earlier this season. I also feel the line value favors Wake since they've gone from 16 point favorites in the first game to 3 point favorites. This is a pretty big line jump from the first meeting. Even with all of this, I think the game is going to fall close to the line because Wake simply doesn't have a good enough offense to run away from anybody. This is why i almost played Navy. It's so close that if the line had been +3.5 or 4 I would have probably picked Navy instead of Wake. This game will be all about motivation. If Grobe can't get his team motivated for this game, then they are going to lose.

 

[midman2161]

Just really on the fence right now, especially because I can get wake -2.5 but feel like staying away might be the best play

 

[Johnny~Vegas]

Im staying away from the Wake/Navy game, SOS favors Wake but the dog system favors Navy. Colorado St is under both systems so im going with them.

 

[Johnny~Vegas]

Sorry for the delay:
SOS
Wake +10.4
Col St +2
S. Florida +8.4
Zona +7.3

S. Miss +5.2

Did we post the official rushing number yet?

Im assuming these are just for the early games & more are on the way, keep up the good work fellas!

 

[midman2161]

Im staying away from the Wake/Navy game, SOS favors Wake but the dog system favors Navy. Colorado St is under both systems so im going with them.

I am going to be on BYU and Col State tomorrow those are my two favorites as of now, and going to follow GoSooners' over play in USF-Memphis as well

 

[GoSooners]

Colorado St. (+2.5) over Fresno St. **
I'm playing this one strictly as part of my running dogs system. I'm not crazy about the game because we have two teams who give up more yardage on defense than they gain on offense. So neither probably belongs in a bowl game. And anything could happen. But having said that, I think there could be a small advantage for CSU with Fresno coming into this game banged up. Especially on the defensive side of the ball. Which could help CSU's running game and 1000 yard rusher Johnson. On the other side, Fresno's number 1 rusher went down earlier in the season, and they've used a two RB rotation. On offense, they have better rushing numbers than CSU. But they come in a WAC conference that wasn't as strong as the MWC this season. And the Fresno defense is lacking in good run defense. They gave up almost 500 yards rushing to Nevada and 250 to Boise. Which makes me think CSU might be able to get the best of the rushing numbers for this game. Another factor that figures into this is motivation. I don't believe that either Fresno or their fans will be thrilled about this game. Fresno has always gotten pumped up for their bowl games in the past, mainly because they've usually had a BCS conference team travelling out west, and out of their element to play Fresno. Fresno is 4-0 against BCS teams in the last 5 bowls. But the one time that they didn't get paired against a BCS team (Tulsa), they got beat. And since CSU isn't exactly travelling out of their element, and Fresno isn't exactly thrilled about playing a 6-6 MWC team, I think the chance for an upset is pretty good here. I also think Boise's 61-10 win over Fresno probably took a little wind out of the Bulldogs sails. Liking the Rams in this spot.

 

[GoSooners]

Bowl plays:


Wake Forest (-3) over Navy **
BYU (+3) over Arizona **
Nebraska-Clemson (OVER 55.5) **
NCST-Rutgers (OVER 53) **
NCST (+9) over Rutgers **
Western Michigan (+3) over Rice **
Memphis-South Florida (OVER 53) **
Colorado St. (+2.5) over Fresno **

 

[indiana]

G.Sooners......

Just wanted to say thank you for all the efforts this past season.. really enjoyed your threads... g/l with all your plays..

indy

 

[GoSooners]

G.Sooners......

Just wanted to say thank you for all the efforts this past season.. really enjoyed your threads... g/l with all your plays..

indy

Thanks Indy...BOL this bowl season and happy holidays! :toast:

 

[cd329]

Running Dog #'s for Wake Forest/Navy

Navy 1.20 Advantage

Navy qualifies as a running dog play falling into the main grouping that cashed at a 71% clip and a subset group that qualified at 54%.

a few nuggets...

Wake Forest was 0-3 SU this season when Riley Skinner threw an Interception. 7-2 SU when he didn't throw an interception. Wake Forest had 6 turnovers in their 24-17 home loss earlier this season to Navy. Navy's "small" defensive line completely dominated Wake Forest's run game holding them to 43 yards on 31 carries, needless to say Wake was facing 2nd and 3rd and long all day long. Skinner was picked 4 times and Wake Forest also lost 2 fumbles. Navy lost 2 fumbles, giving Navy a +4 turnover edge that day yet Navy was only able to come away with a 7 point victory. Can Wake avoid the turnovers?? Can they run on Navy, or at least try to move the ball with short passes throwing on first down? Just a few things to consider.

Coolbreeze, what exactly does that 1.20 number stand for and how do yoy calculate it?
Thanks:toast:

 

[krk1030]

Would you still play the memphis/south fl at 55?

 

[jblonghorn]

1 more factor to consider before going against Navy is the Military school factor. I don't know remember where I saw the stat, but military schools (Air Force, Army, Navy) have historically done very, very well in their bowl games. These teams are obviously well behaved and well prepared; much more so than their counterparts. BOL all.

 

[GoSooners]

Would you still play the memphis/south fl at 55?

54.5 was the cutoff for getting a good number on this game. The reason why is because of how college football games usually fall with the score. There is basically no difference between 52.5 and 54.5 because games usually don't fall on those numbers. The next most likely scores are 28-27, 31-24, 35-20. So at 52.5 or 53 we would basically need another field goal. Therefore 52 is a much better number. But still worth a decent play at 52.3, 53, 53.5 etc. A friend of mine is a good totals specialist. And I've learned quite a bit from him. And after awhile I think you learn when you can play a game up to a certain number before it becomes a no play. Unlike what people think, these totals don't always fall into a half point or point range. It could fall within as much as a 2.5 point range to still get us to the number we want. I recommend keeping an eye on this total. I see it at 55 most everywhere. But I also see it at 52.5 at Skybook. So it's possible you could still get it at a lower number before kickoff..BOL

 

[AlwaysKeen]

gosooners,

sorry I wasn't in touch today...there was a tall blonde woman who distracted me after work but I'm ready to go tomorrow...we will catch up soon...

 

[GoSooners]

gosooners,

sorry I wasn't in touch today...there was a tall blonde woman who distracted me after work but I'm ready to go tomorrow...we will catch up soon...

Pags...It's the tall brunettes that always distract me. But at my age, I wouldn't even turn down a short flaming redhead with one leg.

 

[Blitz]

I remember last year very well and the list of running dogs were money and almost everytime you looked at the gamed and capped it and came up with the opposite team it lost. The list from last year of running digs and their winning percentage was just amazing and at some point I think you even said "if I had just followed the running dogs alone, look how well I would've done". For that reason I'm leaving this one alone to see what happens. If the running dog covers again I'm not sure I'm gonna look at anything but that. Last year was amazing. I was gonna bet Navy just on that principal and if I had the balls I would again but I think I'll take the over and wait and see. GoSooners, go back to last year's thread and take a look. The record of running dogs was so good it was scary

Wake Forest (-3) over Navy **
I like Wake for all of the reasons I stated in the thread. And even though I don't take revenge into high regard in capping games, it still remains somewhat of a factor in a team making amends for the way they played in the first game back in Septemeber. Keep in mind that Wake played a very uncharacteristic game that day with Skinner throwing 4 picks. Combine that with Wake LT Birdsong getting ejected from the game, which helped contribute to Wake's poor rushing performance, and you get a team that lost their mojo both on offense and defense. Even at that, with Navy up 17-0 at half, it still ended up a 24-17 game. We're talking about a BCS team that has gone from being 16 point favorites to just 3 point favorites against a non-BCS team on a neutral field, based on one bad performance. So Wake has gained a lot of line value here. I hate to go against my "running dogs" system, but keep in mind that teams like Navy and Air Force, as long as the other team is favored, are always going to be running dogs in their games because they are exclusive running teams. And in this case I just don't think Navy is getting enough points against a BCS team to be considered a play on team. I also like the coaching matchup here. And I feel Grobe will change some of his defensive schemes around and shut down the Navy run a little better in this game. Another thing I like is Wake is a senior dominated team, especially on defense, playing in their final game. And this should also help their motivation in this game.

 

[GoSooners]

I remember last year very well and the list of running dogs were money and almost everytime you looked at the gamed and capped it and came up with the opposite team it lost. The list from last year of running digs and their winning percentage was just amazing and at some point I think you even said "if I had just followed the running dogs alone, look how well I would've done". For that reason I'm leaving this one alone to see what happens. If the running dog covers again I'm not sure I'm gonna look at anything but that. Last year was amazing. I was gonna bet Navy just on that principal and if I had the balls I would again but I think I'll take the over and wait and see. GoSooners, go back to last year's thread and take a look. The record of running dogs was so good it was scary

Seeing how this game is going, it may not be a bad idea to follow the running dogs and not me...LOL
I did go back and look at last years threads. I followed the running dogs system most of the time. It usually took something about the matchup I didn't like to get me off of them.

 

[Johnny~Vegas]

Navy has the highest rating of the running dogs, it was either a Navy play or no play.